Upstart 2023 Q3 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-11-08 01:50:54 来源
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's Third Quarter 2020 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Girard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.
下午好，感谢您参加今天的电话会议，讨论Upstart公司2020年第三季度的财务结果。今天与我们一起参加电话会议的是Upstart的首席执行官Dave Girard和我们的首席财务官Sanjay Datta。
Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its Third Quarter 2020 financial results and published an investor relations presentation. Both are available on our investor relations website, IR.Upstart.com.
在我们开始之前，我想提醒你，在今天市场收盘后不久，Upstart发布了一份新闻稿，宣布了其2020年第三季度的财务结果，并发布了一份投资者关系展示文稿。这些都可以在我们的投资者关系网站IR.Upstart.com上查阅。
During the call, we will make four looking statements such as guidance for the fourth quarter of 2023 relating to our business and plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks and certain fees and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these four looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any four looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.
在电话中，我们将就我们的业务和未来扩展平台的计划提出四个前瞻性声明，比如对2023年第四季度的指导。这些声明是基于我们目前的期望和今天可获取的信息，并且受到各种风险和特定假设的影响。实际结果可能因为我们在向SEC提交的文件中描述过的各种风险因素而有重大不同。因此，我们建议您不要过度依赖这些前瞻性声明。除非法律要求，我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的义务，即使是因为新信息或未来事件。
In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as a non-GAP financial measure and are reconciled to our GAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.
此外，在今天的电话会议中，除非另有说明，我们提供的有关业绩的参考数据是非依据通用会计准则（GAP）的财务指标，并已与我们的GAP结果进行了调整，这些调整可以在收益发布和补充表格中找到。
To ensure that we can address as many analyst questions as possible during the call, we request that you please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow up.
为了确保在通话过程中我们能够回答尽可能多的分析师问题，请您仅限制在一个初始问题和一个后续问题上。
Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in the JMP Securities AI Forum November 29th and Wedbushes Disruptive Finance Virtual Conference December 1st.
在本季度晚些时候，Upstart将参加JMP证券AI论坛（11月29日）和Wedbush的颠覆性金融虚拟会议（12月1日）。
Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Gerard, CEO of Upstart.
现在我想将话题转给Upstart的首席执行官戴维·杰拉德(Dave Gerard)。
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our third quarter 2023 results. I'm Dave Gerard, co-founder and CEO of Upstart. While 2023 continues to be a difficult environment for consumer lending, I can state with confidence that we're making rapid progress in building the world's first and best AI lending platform. We do this with a focus on our mission and with an optimistic eye toward the transformation of an industry that is inevitable over the next decade and beyond.
大家下午好。感谢大家参加我们关于2023年第三季度业绩的电话会议。我是Upstart的联合创始人兼首席执行官Dave Gerard。虽然2023年对于消费者借贷行业仍然是一个困难的环境，但我可以自信地说，我们正在迅速推进建设世界上第一个、最好的人工智能借贷平台。我们在专注于我们的使命的同时，满怀乐观的眼光看待这个行业在未来十年乃至更久的时间内不可避免的转型。
In the third quarter, rates are at an all-time high in our marketplace, higher than we expected them to be reflecting both decades high interest rates and significantly elevated risk in the consumer economy. This is not a path we would have chosen and is obviously not constructed to our growth, but it reflects the reality of operating responsibly in this environment.
在第三季度中，我们市场的利率达到有史以来的最高点，高于我们预期的水平，这反映了几十年来的高利率以及消费经济中明显增加的风险。这并不是我们选择的路径，显然也不利于我们的增长，但它反映了在这个环境中负责任经营的现实情况。
That said, we believe the economic trends continue in the right direction. Inflation is waning, interest rates presumably are peaking or have peaked. The jobs market remains strong. In many retailers are suggesting that consumer spending is softening. We continue to look for a return to normal for personal savings rates, which are highly correlated with risk and therefore with pricing on our platform.
尽管如此，我们相信经济趋势仍在朝着正确的方向发展。通胀正在减弱，利率可能已经达到或接近巅峰。就业市场仍然强劲。许多零售商都表示消费支出在减弱。我们依然期待个人储蓄率回归正常水平，储蓄率与风险以及我们平台上的价格高度相关。
From a financial perspective, we'd of course prefer to be growing quickly, but this is the time when it's wise to be operating in a conservative mode. In that light, we were e-bit.positive for the second straight quarter. Our contribution margins are still near record highs, and finally, we remain confident that our personal loan models are calibrated, and upstart powered credit is performing as expected right now. Not only are we financially secure, we also continue to invest in our AI platform.
从财务角度来看，我们当然希望能够快速增长，但现在是明智的保守运营时期。在这种情况下，我们连续第二个季度实现了正的调整前利润（e-bit） 。我们的贡献利润率仍然接近历史最高水平，最后，我们对个人贷款模型的校准和新兴技术支持下的信贷表现依然充满信心。我们不仅在财务上保持安全，还在继续投资于我们的人工智能平台。
Last quarter, we launched model 15.0, the latest version of our core personal loan underwriting model. This new version increased our model accuracy by about 15%. The largest improvement we've seen since we began tracking improvements in 2018 by about a factor of 1.5. Our previous most impactful model launch added personalized timing curves, what we've come to call our loan month model, for a giant accuracy improvement. This version improves the accuracy and precision of these personalized timing curves and also as personalized macro effects for the first time.
上季度，我们推出了15.0版本，这是我们核心个人贷款评估模型的最新版本。这个新版本将我们的模型准确度提高了约15%。这是自2018年开始追踪改进以来我们见过的最大改善，大约提升了1.5倍。我们之前最有影响力的模型推出是添加了个性化的时间曲线，我们称之为贷款月份模型，以获得巨大的准确度提升。这个版本提高了个性化时间曲线的准确度和精确度，同时还首次加入了个性化的宏观影响因素。
Last week, we also launched an upgraded version of the upstart macro index to account for seasonal patterns and repayment behaviors. Over the last decade, we've measured a distinct seasonal pattern with respect to loan repayments. The time from January through April represents the best seasonal loan performance in our experience, likely due to borrowers receiving extra cash in the form of state and federal tax refunds. Performance then generally degrades marginally each month until the early fall and then flattens or modestly improves through the end of the year. With a seasonally adjusted UMI, we'll offer more accurate lens into changes in the financial health of consumers and natural results in less volatility in loan pricing and approvals from month to month.
上周，我们还推出了升级版的飞速宏观指数，以考虑季节性模式和偿还行为。在过去的十年里，我们观察到贷款偿还存在明显的季节性模式。从一月到四月，我经验中最好的贷款表现可见，这可能是由于借款人以州和联邦税款退款的形式获得了额外的现金。然后，贷款表现每个月都会稍微恶化，直到初秋，然后会趋于平稳或略微改善，直到年底。通过使用季节调整的飞速宏观指数，我们将能够更准确地了解消费者财务状况的变化，并且贷款定价和批准的波动性将减少。
Our auto retail platform saw a huge boost recently as we partnered with a major OEM to implement our software in support of the launch of a new vehicle. Our technology powered their consumer reservation, deposit and customization system for this amazing new vehicle and was implemented quickly at more than 99% of all of their dealerships in the U.S. We see this as a harbinger to a future where consumers can choose exactly the car they want online and have it delivered directly to them with none of the friction and inconvenience many associated with the car buying experience. We're partnering with leaders in the industry to unlock this future.
我们的汽车零售平台最近迎来了巨大的增长，因为我们与一家主要的原始设备制造商合作，为他们推出的一款新车实施我们的软件。我们的技术为他们的消费者预订、订金和定制系统提供支持，这款新车在美国的99%以上经销商处迅速实施。我们将此视为未来的预兆，未来消费者可以在线上选择自己想要的车型，并直接将其交付给他们，而不会带来购车体验中的摩擦和不便。我们正在与行业领导者合作，以实现这个未来。
Separately, we also expanded our roster of car dealerships that have gone live without start lending from 61 to 69. We added support for rooftops in Arkansas, Maryland and Virginia, expanding our reach to 70% of the U.S. population. We also signed agreements with two of the largest national non-prime auto lenders to help fund our auto lending solutions.
另外，我们还将车辆经销商从61家扩展到了69家，并且已经让其不需要启动借贷即可运行。同时，我们还在阿肯色州、马里兰州和弗吉尼亚州增加了对屋顶的支持，将我们的覆盖范围扩展到美国人口的70%。此外，我们还与两家最大的全国非优质汽车贷款机构签订了协议，以帮助资助我们的汽车贷款解决方案。
I'm also excited about the progress with our home equity product. As of today, the Upstart HELOC is available to homeowners in Colorado, Michigan, Washington and Utah and we expect to be live in Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee and Washington, D.C. in the coming weeks. We've received encouraging feedback from applicants about how fast and easy the process is even at this nascent stage. A home equity product helps diversify our business in two critical ways. First, it's a very prime product. The annual loss rate is expected to be 1% or less. And second, it's a countercyclical to a refinance product because it's an effective way to tap equity in a home during a higher rate environment such as we have today. More than 90% of HELOCs are offered by banks and credit unions today. So it's a good fit with the Upstart platform and our partners. We'll bring some pricing advantage to the HELOC market over time. But there are two predominant advantages we expect to see sooner.
我对我们的房产权产品的进展也感到兴奋。截至今日，Upstart 贷款的房产权信用额度产品已经可以供住在科罗拉多州、密歇根州、华盛顿州和犹他州的房主使用，而我们预计在接下来的几周里将在阿拉巴马州、肯塔基州、田纳西州和华盛顿特区提供服务。即使在这个初始阶段，我们已经从申请者那里得到了令人鼓舞的反馈，他们对于流程的快速简便性感到满意。房产权产品有助于以两个关键方式扩大我们的业务范围。首先，这是一个极为优质的产品。预期的年损失率将低于1%。其次，这是一种与再融资产品相对应的反周期产品，因为在目前的高利率环境下，它是一种有效的利用住房资本的方式。今天，超过90%的房产信用额度产品由银行和信用合作社提供。因此，它与Upstart平台和我们的合作伙伴非常匹配。随着时间的推移，我们将在房产信用额度市场上获得一些定价优势。但是，我们预计很快会看到两个主要的优势。
The first is speed and ease of access because the banks and credit unions that originate most HELOCs today take more than a month on average for the applicant to receive funds. We're aiming for less than five days. Second, our existing platform unlocks customer acquisition advantages that others can't match. Each month, more than 80,000 homeowners apply for a personal loan on Upstart. Some large fraction of them can and will be better served with a home equity product that offers a lower rate. After all, personal loans in HELOCs are just two different ways to solve the same customer need. By integrating our personal loan in HELOC application processes, which we expect to do before your end, will take a giant step toward becoming customer-centric rather than product-centric. The trade-offs between price, time, and effort will change over time and will help applicants choose the best product for them.
首先，我们的第一优势是速度和便利性，因为如今大部分提供HELOC的银行和信用合作社需要超过一个月才能将资金发放给申请人。我们的目标是不超过五天。其次，我们现有的平台具有其他竞争对手无法匹敌的客户获取优势。每个月都有超过80,000名房主在Upstart申请个人贷款，其中有相当一部分可以并且会受益于提供较低利率的家庭产权产品。毕竟，个人贷款和HELOC只是解决同一客户需求的两种不同方式。通过整合我们的个人贷款和HELOC申请流程（预计在年底之前完成），我们将迈向以客户为中心而不是以产品为中心的巨大进步。价格、时间和努力之间的权衡将随着时间的推移而改变，并帮助申请人选择最合适的产品。
Now let's talk about the funding side. By the difficult lending environment, we've seen some great success with credit unions in the last couple of years. We attribute this to the fact that credit unions are extremely focused on delivering the products that their members want with an intense focus on the quality of experience. They also map well into current and future Upstart products with approximately $29 billion in personal loans, $266 billion in auto loans, and $82 billion in HELOCs funded by credit unions each year. So we're doubling down on credit unions by building features and capabilities that will strengthen our partnerships. In recent weeks and months, we upgraded the Upstart Performance Console to enhance visibility into originations and loan performance trends, improved connectivity to the core systems that power credit unions for naturals and operations, delivered features that make it easier for new members to join a credit union, and enhance their partner's ability to cross sell other products to existing members. We're also unlocking loan participation, where a loan originated by one credit union can be fractionalized and sold to a network of other credit unions. This significantly improves liquidity in the system and allows us to reach the long tail of small credit unions in an economic and constructive way.
现在让我们来谈谈资金方面的问题。在最近几年的困难贷款环境中，我们看到信用合作社取得了一些巨大的成功。我们将这归因于信用合作社极其专注于提供其会员所需的产品，并对经验质量有着强烈的关注。信用合作社还与当前和未来的Upstart产品非常契合，每年信用合作社提供了约290亿美元的个人贷款、2660亿美元的汽车贷款和820亿美元的房屋净值贷款。因此，我们正在加倍注重发展与信用合作社的合作伙伴关系，通过开发功能和能力来加强合作伙伴关系。在最近几个星期和几个月，我们升级了Upstart性能控制台，以增强对发起和贷款绩效趋势的可见性，改善与为自然和业务提供动力的核心系统的连接性，提供了使新会员更容易加入信用合作社的功能，并增强合作伙伴的能力向现有会员推销其他产品。我们还推出了贷款参与解锁功能，其中一家信用合作社发起的贷款可以被分散化并卖给其他信用合作社的网络。这极大地改善了系统内的流动性，并使我们有能力以经济和积极的方式触达小型信用合作社的长尾市场。
On the capital market side, we continue to pursue a large number of committed funding partnerships in order to strengthen the reliability of loan funding on Upstart. With banks retrenching, paying more for deposits, and likely facing even more imposing capital requirements, we believe it's important to find alternative sources of funding, even for the primers of loans. We're in discussions about partnerships and structures that can enable at-scale funding across the entire credit spectrum and are excited to innovate in this space.
在资本市场方面，我们将继续寻求大量的可靠融资合作伙伴关系，以加强对Upstart贷款资金的可靠性。在银行撤离、存款成本上涨并可能面临更严格资本要求的情况下，我们认为寻找替代融资来源对于初级贷款来说也是非常重要的。我们正在讨论能够在整个信用范围内实现大规模融资的合作伙伴关系和结构，并对在这一领域进行创新感到兴奋。
Lastly, we're investing significantly in servicing and collections, a vital part of our business where improvements can go directly to the bottom line. We recently launched a new version of our funded borrower dashboard, which is the experience of borrower's fee while in the process of repaying a loan. We also recently launched our first mobile application, which is initially focused on loan repayment.
最后，我们正在大量投资于服务和催收业务，这是我们业务的重要组成部分，改进可以直接反映在底线上。我们最近推出了一个新版本的资助借款人仪表板，这是借款人在偿还贷款过程中的体验。我们还最近推出了我们的第一个移动应用程序，最初重点放在贷款偿还上。
Servicing in collections is clearly an area where AI can lead to better results than we believe the surface area upon which we can apply our AI expertise is broad. We've brought some incredible new talent to this aspect of our business and are excited about its potential.
催收服务显然是人工智能可以取得比我们预期更好结果的领域，我们可以应用人工智能专长的领域非常广泛。我们为业务的这一方面引入了一些了不起的新人才，对其潜力感到兴奋。
To wrap up my remarks today, there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic about upstart. First, even with our race at all time highs, we continue to grow fee revenue in investing our teams and core AI. Second, our models are learning and improving at an unprecedented pace, creating more separation from traditional approaches to lending. Third, the competition to serve mainstream American consumers with responsible lending products has waned considerably given the challenges in the markets in recent years. In fourth, we believe there's an inevitable period of normalization in both rates and risk levels return to long-term averages. That will provide upstart with a tailwind over a multi-year period in the future. We aren't waiting around for that period, but we'll certainly be ready when it arrives.
总结一下我今天的发言，有很多原因让我们对创业公司保持乐观态度。首先，尽管我们的竞争对手一直在创造历史新高，但我们继续通过投资我们的团队和核心人工智能技术来增加费用收入。其次，我们的模型正在以前所未有的速度学习和改进，与传统的借贷方法越来越不同。第三，由于市场在近年来面临的挑战，为美国主流消费者提供负责任的借贷产品的竞争已经大大减少。第四，我们相信利率和风险水平必然会回归到长期平均水平，这将为创业公司在未来的多年里提供顺风顶帆。我们并不是在等待那个时期的到来，但当它来临时，我们肯定会做好准备。
Speaking of the future, last week I had the privilege of participating in the US Senate's AI Insight Forum. It was a very productive bipartisan discussion on how to maximize the benefits of AI while mitigating risks. I focused my remarks on the lessons we've learned on our journey to use AI responsibly to help establish America as a global leader in AI-enabled lending. Hearing about the challenges other industries are facing deploying AI, reinforcing me that lending is one of the most compelling examples of how AI can clearly improve the lives of all Americans. I left more excited than ever about the opportunities ahead of us.
说到未来，上周我有幸参加了美国参议院的AI洞察论坛。这是一次非常富有成效的两党讨论，讨论了如何最大限度地发挥人工智能的好处，并减轻风险。我在发言中重点介绍了我们在使用人工智能过程中所学到的经验，以帮助确立美国作为人工智能贷款全球领导者的地位。听到其他行业在部署人工智能方面面临的挑战，更加坚定了我对贷款是人工智能如何可以显著改善所有美国人生活的最有说服力的例子之一的看法。我离开时比以往任何时候都更加兴奋，对眼前的机遇充满期待。
Thank you, and I'd like now to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q3 to 2023 financial results and guidance.
非常感谢大家。现在，我想把话题转交给我们的首席财务官Sanjay，他将为大家介绍我们2023财年第三季度的财务结果和预测。
Sanjay? Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We're coming off the quarter of mixed results in Q3, with narrow misses on revenue and margins against success nonetheless in maintaining positive adjusted EVITA and sequential growth and fee revenue. We continue to operate in a challenging and fluid macro environment.
山杰？感谢你，戴夫，也感谢大家今天的加入。我们度过了一个在第三季度有着收入和利润率微小差错的季度，但仍然成功地保持了调整后EVITA的正增长和费用收入的顺序增长。我们仍在一个具有挑战性和不断变化的宏观环境中运营。
Real consumption continues to hover at levels which we believe to be unsustainable. Incomes continue to lag consumption growth, despite the positive trend in labor participation, as the ongoing decline in government transfers, still receding from stimulus-era highs, offsets and wage gains from the return to work. The residual savings rates in the economy have consequently continued to languish at historically low levels.
实际消费仍然持续在我们认为是不可持续的水平上徘徊。尽管劳动参与的积极趋势，但收入增长仍然落后于消费增长，因为政府转移支付持续减少，尽管仍未完全回归刺激时期的高点，这对劳动所得增长产生了抵消作用。因此，经济中的剩余储蓄率继续低迷在历史上的低水平。
This consumer reality continues to be reflected in elevated borrower default trends in an upstart macro index, now adjusted for seasonality, which indicates a stable level of loan defaults throughout most of this past year, albeit one which remains remarkably high. Poor ability to approve borrowers in this environment has remained the constraint on platform growth for most of the past quarter.
这种消费者现实在一项新兴宏观指数中持续反映出借款人违约趋势升高，现已根据季节性进行调整，该指数显示了在过去一年中贷款违约水平的稳定，尽管仍然相当高。在这种环境下，无力批准借款人已经成为过去一个季度大部分时间平台增长的制约因素。
On the funding side of our business, banks continue to manage balance sheets conservatively and seek to unwind existing asset positions in secondary markets. The decline in aggregate deposit base, which started in mid-2022, has now thankfully eased, but anemic savings rates are so far hindering a rebound in liquidity. More responsibly, the institutional funding markets remain distracted with a bounty of trading opportunities coming from the banking sector.
在我们业务的资金方面，银行继续以保守的方式管理资产负债表，并寻求在二级市场中清理现有资产头寸。从2022年中开始的存款总额下降现在已经幸运地缓解，但不景气的储蓄利率迄今妨碍了流动性的复苏。更负责任地说，机构融资市场仍然被来自银行业的大量交易机会所分散注意力。
On the other hand, significant amounts of institutional capital have been recently raised for upcoming deployment into credit, and the volume of discussion and negotiation aimed at setting up for 2024 remains encouraging. With these items as context, here are some financial highlights from the third quarter of 2023.
另一方面，大量的机构资本最近已经筹集用于信贷投资，而且关于2024年的筹备方面的讨论和协商的数量仍然是令人鼓舞的。在这些背景条件下，以下是2023年第三季度的一些财务亮点。
The revenue from fees was $147 million in Q3, slightly below our guidance of $150 million, and marginally up from $144 million last quarter. Our underwriting of primer, higher income borrowers has become more conservative over this past quarter as their loss rates accelerate and converge with the broader default trends across the borrower spectrum.
第三季度的费用收入为1.47亿美元，略低于我们指导的1.5亿美元，较上一季度的1.44亿美元略有增长。在过去的季度中，我们对于收入较高的借款人的承保标准变得更加谨慎，因为他们的损失率加速上升，并与借款人范围内的更广泛的违约趋势趋于一致。
This has been a headwind for our volumes and few revenues over this past quarter versus our contemplated guidance. Net interest income was negative $12 million in Q3 owing to continued elevated charge-offs in our R&D portfolio as well as a one-time change in our charge-off process for loans and bankruptcy that had the effect of pulling some charges forward into Q3. Taken together, net revenue for Q3 came in at $135 million, slightly below guidance, and representing a 14% contraction year over year.
过去一个季度，这对我们的交易量和少量收入构成了阻力，与我们预期的指导相比。由于研发组合中的拖欠支付持续上升以及贷款和破产冲销流程的一次性变更，第三季度净利息收入为负1,200万美元，这导致一些冲销费用提前计入第三季度。综合考虑，第三季度净收入为1.35亿美元，略低于预期，年度收缩率达14%。
The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q3 was approximately 114,000 loans, up roughly 5% sequentially, and representing over 70,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of $11,000 was up 9% versus the same period last year and sequentially flat. Our contribution margin, a non-gapped metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification, and servicing as a percentage of revenue from fees. Came in at 64% in Q3, up 11% points from 54% last year, but 1% point below our guidance for the quarter. We continued to benefit from high levels of loan processing automation and fraud modeling efficacy, achieving another new high in percentage of loans fully automated at 88%.
在我们的平台上，第三季度贷款交易额约为114,000笔，按顺序增长了大约5%，共有超过70,000名新借款人。平均贷款金额为11,000美元，较去年同期增长了9%，与上一季度持平。我们的贡献利润率是一个非主要指标，我们定义为从费用中减去借款人获取、验证和服务的可变成本后的收入占费用收入的百分比。第三季度的贡献利润率为64%，较去年的54%增加了11%百分点，但比本季度指导值低了1%百分点。我们继续受益于高水平的贷款处理自动化和欺诈建模效果，实现了贷款全自动化比例的再次创新高，达到了88%。
Operating expenses were $178 million in Q3, down 17% year over year, but up 5% sequentially, as increasing sales and marketing spend somewhat offset continued savings in engineering and product. All together, Q3 gap net loss was $40.3 million and adjusted EBITDA was positive $2.3 million, both roughly in line with guidance. Adjusted earnings per share was negative $0.5, based on a diluted weighted average share count of 84.4 million.
第三季度的运营成本为1.78亿美元，同比下降17%，但环比增长5%，销售和市场开支的增加在一定程度上抵消了工程和产品方面的继续节省。总体而言，第三季度的净亏损为4030万美元，调整后的税息折旧及摊销前利润为230万美元，两者均与预期相符。调整后的每股收益为负0.5美元，基于拖累加权平均股份为8440万股。
We ended the quarter with loans on a balance sheet of $776 million before the consolidation of securitized loans, down sequentially from $838 million to the prior quarter. Of that balance, loans made for the purposes of R&D principally auto loans sat at $447 million of the total. In addition to loans owned directly, we have consolidated an additional $196 million of loans that were sold from our balance sheet into an ABS transaction earlier this quarter, in which we retained a total net equity exposure of $43 million. As described in our prior earnings call, this transaction was somewhat unusual for us and designed to serve as a visible market reset, as well as a public vote of confidence in our current degree of model calibration.
我们在上个季度结束时，贷款余额表上显示为7.76亿美元（不包括合并后的证券化贷款），较上一个季度的8.38亿美元有所下降。其中，用于研发目的主要是汽车贷款的贷款总额为4.47亿美元。除了直接拥有的贷款之外，我们还将在本季度早些时候从资产负债表中转售出196亿美元的贷款整合到ABS交易中，其中我们保留了总净权益曝险额为4300万美元。正如我们之前的盈利电话中所描述的那样，这个交易对我们来说有些不寻常，旨在作为一个可见的市场重置，并对我们当前的模型校准程度表示公开的信心投票。
Our corporate liquidity position at the end of Q3 remained strong, with $517 million of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet, and approximately $425 million in net loan equity at fair value. We continue to watch for signs of moderating consumption, improved savings rates, and reduced credit defaults in our economy as precursors to a broader normalization of consumer fiscal health. Until we see such signals, our operating assumption is that the macro environment will remain constant. And in such a scenario, our business growth will predominantly come from model upgrades and from improved underwriting accuracy, both of which we consider to be squarely in our set of core technical competencies, and ones in which we have demonstrated a strong historical record that's delivering growth over the years.
截至第三季度末，我们的企业流动性状况依然强劲，资产负债表上有5.17亿美元的无限制现金，并且大约有4.25亿美元的公允价值净贷款权益。我们持续关注消费减缓、储蓄率提高和信贷违约降低等经济迹象，作为消费者财务健康全面正常化的前兆。在我们看到这些信号之前，我们的操作假设是宏观环境将保持稳定。在这种情况下，我们的业务增长将主要来自模型升级和提高承保准确性，这两者被认为是我们核心技术能力的一部分，并且历史记录显示，多年来它们都为我们创造了强劲的增长。
With this context in mind, for Q4 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $135 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $150 million, and net interest income of approximately negative $15 million, contribution margin of approximately 62%, net income of approximately negative $48 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $14 million, adjusted eBITDA of approximately zero, and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 85.6 million shares.
考虑到这种情况，对于2023年第四季度，我们预计总收入约为1.35亿美元，其中包括1.5亿美元的费用收入和约负1,500万美元的净利息收入，贡献率约为62％，净收入约为负4,800万美元，调整净收入约为负1,400万美元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）约为零，稀释加权平均股份大约为8560万股。
That is all for our prepared remarks this afternoon. A shout out to all of the upstart teams who have kept their heads down and they're resolved strong over the course of the past year spent in an excruciating external environment. Our business today is a much stronger one in a number of very tangible ways than it was before the onset of this post stimulus hangover. And when the winds eventually settle, your work will be manifest and brightly shine.
今天下午我们准备的发言就到此为止。向所有一直坚持努力、在过去一年痛苦的外部环境中保持冷静和坚定意志的新兴团队们表示致敬。我们的企业在很多实质性的方面比刺激饮料后遗症出现之前要更强大。当风平浪静之时，你们的工作将得到体现并熠熠生辉。
With that, Dave and I are happy to open up the call to any questions. Operator? If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow the signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star 1 to ask a question.
随着这句话，戴夫和我乐意为大家开放电话接受问题。接线员？如果您想要提问，请按下您电话键盘上的星号1进行指示。如果您正在使用免提电话，请确保关闭静音功能，以便让我们的设备接收到您的信号。再次提醒，按下星号1以提问。
We will take our first question from Simon Klinch with Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.
我们将从Redburn Atlantic的Simon Klinch提问第一个问题。请开始。
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if I could start with your comments around private credit and the encouraging pipeline for the 2020 for the long-term funding commitments. Could you just expand on that a little bit more in terms of, I guess, the scale of long-term funding that you would hope to get and how much, how we should think about that in terms of visibility and the potential growth beyond this year?
大家好。感谢大家回答我的问题。我想知道您对私人信贷以及2020年长期资金承诺的鼓舞人心的前景有什么看法。您能详细阐述一下，希望获得多大规模的长期资金以及我们如何在可见度和今年以后的潜在增长方面进行思考吗？
Yeah, hey, Simon. Sanjay here. Thanks for your question. Yeah, I guess the comment was maybe an allusion to the fact that in the ongoing discussions that we're having with the number of counterparties, obviously in the vein of securing a longer-term committee to sell capital, I think the volume and the depth of those discussions has been on a good trend. And it feels like there's a lot of counterparties that are exploring this asset class that are newer to the asset class that have freshly raised capital. It's probably related to what we all read about in the private credit space is becoming very big and very interested. What that means with respect to 2024 and future plans or maybe visibility we have into the capital base, nothing concrete yet, unfortunately. I think it's just an encouraging trend for us and it sort of reinforces our view of the direction we're taking.
是的，嘿，西蒙。我是桑杰。感谢你的问题。嗯，我想这个评论可能是暗示着我们正在与一些合作方进行的讨论中，显然是为了确保能够获得一个更长期的委员会来出售资本，这些讨论的规模和深度一直在良好的趋势上。同时感觉到有很多合作方正在探索这个资产类别，这些合作方对这个资产类别可能还比较新鲜，而且刚刚筹集到了资金。这可能与我们所读到的私人信贷领域变得非常重要和引起兴趣有关。关于2024年和未来计划，或者关于我们对资本基础的可见性，目前还没有确切的消息，不幸的是。但对我们来说，这只是一个令人鼓舞的趋势，强化了我们对所采取方向的看法。
Okay. Thanks, Matt. And just as a follow-up, I'm just turning to a very high level of automation at 88%, coupled with the very low conversion rates and the high contribution margins. I just want to, when we get to the stage where volumes start to recover, just for modern purpose, should we effectively assume that as conversion rates rise, that level of automation is not sustainable and so we would expect, I guess, the incremental costs to rise and push that contribution margin down? Is that the kind of mass that we should be thinking about?
好的。谢谢，马特。作为后续问题，我想提醒一下，我们现在的自动化水平已经非常高，达到了88%，再加上非常低的转换率和高的贡献率。我只是想在我们的交流中明确一点，当我们的销售量开始恢复时，我们应该合理地假设随着转化率的提高，这种自动化水平是不可持续的，因此我们预计增量成本会上升，从而降低贡献率。这样的思路是正确的吗？
Hi, Simon. This is Dave. I don't think so. There is an obvious relationship between the rest of the funnel and the sort of automation level. So it could go up and down because it just changes in who's applying and things like fraud rings that could drive the automation level down when our systems are kind of blocking fraud rings, things like that. So there are some reasons it can not always go up and to the right and, in fact, hazard or time. Having said that, I don't think it sort of has the relationship that you are suggesting.
嗨，西蒙。我是戴夫。我不这么认为。漏斗的其他部分与自动化水平之间存在着明显的关系。因此，自动化水平可能会上下波动，因为申请人的变化以及可能导致自动化水平下降的欺诈集团等因素的变动。因此，它并不总是朝着右上方发展，并且实际上可能存在危险因素或时间限制。话虽如此，我认为它与你所提出的关系并不相符。
Okay, that's really helpful. Thank you very much, guys. We will take our next question from David Sharf with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.
好的，真的非常有帮助。非常感谢你们。接下来我们将邀请JMP证券的David Sharf提问，请开始。
Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions as well. So following up the last round of questions, kind of similar vein, focusing on not so much funding, Sanjay, but I guess balance sheet retention. We've been obviously seeing a lot of non-prime lenders announce more kind of private capital partnerships lately, forward flow arrangements, the ABS markets. The ads are still wide, but they are tightening. Given all of that context, irrespective of the demand environment, is there a planned trajectory in mind that investors should think about in terms of effectively winding down the balance sheet exposure? We realize there are always going to be so-called testing loans, but when the residual from the securizations factored in, it looked like it was kind of flatish, quarter to quarter and kind of wondering when you would imagine the loans held for investment or sale to be substantially lower.
下午好，感谢您还回答我的问题。继上一轮的问题之后，我想再谈一谈与资金无关但与资产负债表维持一致性的问题。最近我们明显看到很多非高级借贷机构宣布了更多的私人资本合作伙伴关系，预付流程安排以及资产支持证券市场。广告还是很多，但正在收紧。尽管有这样的背景，无视市场需求环境，投资者是否有计划考虑有效地减少资产负债表敞口？我们意识到总会有所谓的测试贷款，但当考虑到证券化后的剩余部分时，看起来似乎在季度内保持平稳，我想知道您认为持有的投资或待售贷款何时会大幅减少。
Yeah, David, thank you for the question. I guess at a headline level, nothing explicit to really share with respect to how we would view the balance sheet evolving over the course of the next year. We said in our remarks, the explicit constraint on growth right now is on the demand, is on the borrower's side and the approbability of the borrowers. And is that relaxes presumably over the course of time and as our platform rescales, obviously the goal is to use as much third party capital as is available in that rescaling. And that will be our goal, but it's, you know, I don't think we have any explicit guidance or predictions on how that will evolve over the coming quarters.
嗯，大卫，谢谢你的问题。我想总体来说，关于我们如何看待未来一年资产负债表的演变，目前没有明确的分享内容。我们在讲话中提到，目前增长的明确限制在于需求方和借款人的可负担性。随着时间的推移和我们平台的重新调整，这种限制可能会逐渐放宽，并且我们的目标显然是在重新调整中尽量利用第三方资本。这将是我们的目标，但我认为我们对未来几个季度的演变没有明确的指导或预测。
No, I understood. And maybe just to follow up on credit, you know, it looks like the fair value adjustment, it was about another negative kind of 40 million this quarter. I would imagine that that's typically made up of current period losses as well as any mark to market adjustment. And you kind of give us the breakdown of those and also as we think about sort of your guidance in Q4, for net interest income, I mean embedded in that is another kind of fair value adjustment and loss figure. You know, is it possible to give us kind of the charge off figures for the retained balances that was embedded in the Q3 number as well as the Q4 guide?
不，我明白了。也许就信贷方面再补充一下，这一季度的公允价值调整看起来是负债约4,000万美元。我想这通常包括当期损失以及任何按市场价调整的部分。您是否可以具体说明一下这些调整的细节，并在我们考虑第四季度的净利差方面，也就是公允价值调整和损失的数据。是否可以为我们提供嵌入在第三季度和第四季度指导中的无抵押贷款违约数据？
Yeah, I mean, I think I will just say that, well, first of all, the components of fair value are the actual charge offs being incurred by the loans and the balance sheet. Any unrealized fair value adjustments we're taking to those loans when we mark them up and down as the assumptions evaluation change and then any realized gains or losses we take on sales or securitizations. And I'll just say that by far the biggest component in Q3 are the charge offs themselves. And a lot of that is we said, you know, we've got about half a billion dollars of auto loans on our book that were, you know, made sort of in the vein of R&D almost a year and a half ago now back when we were in a very different environment and that half of our loan book is unsprightly taken on excess defaults right now. And I think all of those facts will remain true in Q4 as well. You know, the largest component of fair value in general is the actual charge offs being incurred by the loan book.
是的，我的意思是，我认为我会这样说，首先，公允价值的组成部分是贷款和资产负债表产生的实际核销损失。我们在对这些贷款进行标记时进行的任何未实现公允价值调整都是基于假设评估的变化，并且我们在出售或证券化中实现的盈利或损失也会进行计入。我只是想说，在第三季度，最大的组成部分就是核销损失本身。其中很大一部分是我们在大约一年半前的完全不同环境下制定的、类似于研发的汽车贷款，它们现在的违约率超出了我们的预期。我认为在第四季度，所有这些情况仍将保持不变。总的来说，公允价值的最大组成部分就是贷款产生的实际核销损失。
Got it. Thanks, Sanjay. Thank you.
明白了。谢谢，Sanjay。谢谢。
We will take our next question from Lance. Jeff, you run with BTIG. Please go ahead.
我们将请Lance发表下一个问题。Jeff，你在BTIG任职。请继续。
Thanks for taking my question, guys. You know, a lot of the pressure on the top line has been, you know, the rates coming in about 36 percent. As we come into an environment where, you know, it's more likely than not than we see, you know, rate cuts possibly next year, you know, combined with the UMI, it looks like your UMI is starting to kind of level off a little bit. How should we think about the interplay kind of between the two and how that impacts, you know, your conversion rate and how, you know, where the APRs are coming in below 36 percent. So, you know, is it just a linear like for like basis, whereas the rates start to come down and then the conversion rates start to go up? Or, you know, what are the contribution between that and the UMI and where rates are?
谢谢你们回答我的问题。你知道，对于公司的压力主要来自于利率达到了36%左右。当我们进入下一年可能出现降息的情况时，再加上你们的UMI，看起来你们的UMI似乎有点趋于稳定。我们应该如何考虑二者之间的相互影响，以及对你们的转化率和APR低于36%的影响呢？所以，这是一个线性的增长关系吗？利率开始下降，然后转化率开始上升？或者它们之间的贡献是如何考虑UMI和利率的？
Hey, Lance, this is Dave. Great question. Generally speaking, both UMI and kind of underlying rates have both been, as we've said, moving up pretty much constantly for the last year and a half or even longer. And those, each time that happens to either of them, they are additive in effect to the price of a loan in the marketplace. And as you said, because we have a kind of a sharp line at 36 percent where we don't offer loans above that, that means people are being knocked out of the approval box and declined increasingly as those two go up. I would say generally speaking, the UMI effect is maybe, is larger than the interest effect, the interest rate effect. But they both push in the same direction. They both work to make prices higher. So to your point, you know, not to project where things will go, but assuming rates do come down and assuming over time UMI comes down, those will both certainly become tailwinds to us in essentially, you know, lower rates and improveability. And thus the funnel metrics that's driven by those. So it's very fair to say as those things go down, it would be what we would consider a normalization of our funnel and our overall pricing and everything else. And we certainly look forward to that.
嗨，Lance，我是Dave。很好的问题。一般来说，无论是UMI还是基本利率，在过去的一年半甚至更长时间里都一直在不断上涨。每当它们中的任何一个上涨时，都会对贷款利率产生累加效应。正如你所说的，由于36%是我们不提供超过该利率的贷款的界限，这意味着随着这两个指标的上涨，越来越多的人被拒绝贷款并被排除在批准范围之外。一般来说，UMI效应可能比利率效应更大。但它们都朝着同一个方向推动，都会推高价格。所以根据你的观点，不去预测未来的走向，但假设利率下降并且随着时间推移，UMI也下降，这两者肯定都会成为对我们有利的因素，即降低利率和提高可贷性。而且，由此驱动的漏斗指标也会得到改善。因此，可以很公正地说，随着这些指标的下降，我们将会实现漏斗和整体定价的正常化，我们对此深感期待。
Got it. Appreciate it.
明白了。感谢你。
And then, you know, pivoting a little bit to the HELOC product, I'd be interested to kind of hear the first reactions, essentially, you know, what is the approval, the funding time, what are the margins looking like for the product? How's consumer feedback been? Any color that you can give there would be great.
然后，你知道，稍微转向HELOC产品，我很想知道第一次的反应，基本上，批准过程如何，资金筹集时间如何，该产品的利润率如何？消费者的反馈如何？如果你能提供一些信息，那就太好了。
I would say generally, again, this is Dave, I would say it's probably too early to quote conversion rate, things of that nature. But still, in its early stage, we are still kind of, this is kind of the part of the product where we're very quickly making funnel improvements that can be leaps and bounds, but they're off of a very modest start. So, but I will say generally, the world expects HELOCs to take a long time and to be a very difficult process. That's just the backdrop of us coming into the market. So it's not, we can look really good and people can be very pleasantly surprised and we're still kind of saying, wow, we're just a shadow of where we're going to be in six months or a year with that product. And that's kind of where we are.
我想说，一般来说，这是Dave，我认为现在引用转化率之类的数据可能还为时过早。但是在早期阶段，我们仍然在快速改进漏斗过程中取得了很大的进展，尽管起点很低。总体而言，人们普遍认为HELOC（房屋净值信贷）需要很长时间并且是一个非常困难的过程， 这是我们进入市场时的背景。因此，我们可以表现得很好，人们可能会感到非常惊喜，我们自己也惊讶不已，因为我们在六个月或一年内的产品进步将远超过现在的水平。这就是我们目前所处的情况。
I think we have a process that's probably still better than you can get elsewhere on the market, maybe not everywhere, but what most people are experiencing when they go out looking for a HELOC. But at the same time, we're not even a shadow of the way where we're going to be down the road. So, but it's working, it's good. We're launching more states and, you know, each week or two of development is typically a big step forward for us because there's just so many obvious things that we're improving as we get started.
我认为我们的流程可能仍比市场上其他地方的流程更好，也许不是到处都是，但大多数人寻找贷款时所经历的情况都是如此。但与此同时，我们还远远未达到未来的目标。所以，虽然并不完美，但它起作用，是好的。我们正在推出更多州的服务，每一周或两周的发展通常对我们来说都是一次重要的进步，因为我们在入门时还有很多显而易见的改进之处。
Got it. Thanks so much. Thank you.
明白了，非常感谢。谢谢您。
We will take our next question from Peter Christensen with Citi. Please go ahead.
我们将从花旗银行的彼得·克里斯滕森先生这里提问。请继续。
Thank you. Good evening and thanks for taking my question. I was just curious, you know, with long-sized being kind of flattish sequentially, just curious if we should think of average loan size as a function of available capital or capital supply or I guess more or less an issue of what's going on in consumer credit right now. And I guess as a follow-up, just curious if we should think of loan size impacting the contribution profit margin.
谢谢你。晚上好并感谢你回答我的问题。我只是好奇，你知道，随着长期贷款规模逐渐变平，我们是否应该将平均贷款规模视为可用资本或资本供应的一种函数，或者更多地是与当前消费信贷情况有关的问题。我还想知道，贷款规模是否会对贡献利润率产生影响。
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Hey, Pete. Sanjay, thanks for your question. So I think your question is about loan size, not loan volume, correct?
嘿，皮特。桑杰，谢谢你的问题。所以我认为你的问题是关于贷款规模，而不是贷款数量，对吗？
Correct, yes.
正确，是的。
Okay, yeah. Loan size, let's see. I mean, there's a couple of different impacts. I would say the biggest one is borrower mix. So, you know, all else equal the sort of more low-risk borrowers you could think of maybe in a traditional sense, the primary borrowers that you have will tend to be able to be approved for larger loan sizes and riskier borrowers in contrast lower loan sizes. So if you have, for example, a macro event such as we've had where there's a lot of people being nudged outside of the approval box at the riskier side and then, you know, consequently you have a primary borrower mixed in before you would expect to have larger loan size and vice versa. So borrower mix is one, you know, overall sort of risk and approval is another. All else equal as loss rates get higher in the macro, UMI gets higher, we would generally sort of on the margin be approving folks for smaller loans than in a very, you know, constructive environment. So I would say it's really down to mix. I wouldn't necessarily view loan size as a sort of inherent or fundamental metric for our business in any sort of significant way. Although it is true just answering your last question, it is true that all else equal a larger loan size will lead to a healthier contribution margin.
好的，是的。贷款规模，让我来看看。我的意思是，有几个不同的影响因素。我想说最重要的因素是借款人群的组合。所以，你知道的，其他条件相等的情况下，你可以想象一下可能是传统意义上更低风险的借款人，你们所拥有的主要借款人将趋向于获得更大规模的贷款，而相反，风险较高的借款人则享有更小的贷款规模。所以如果有一个宏观事件，比如我们所经历的情况，有很多人在风险较高的一方被排除在批准范围之外，那么你知道，随后你实际上会有一个主要的借款人混合进来，你会预计有更大规模的贷款，反之亦然。所以借款人群的组合是一个因素，整体风险和批准也是另一个因素。其他条件相等时，当宏观环境中损失率上升时，UMI也会上升，我们通常会对较小的贷款准予批准，而不是在一个非常构建性的环境中。所以我想说关键在于组合。我不会认为贷款规模在我们业务中是一个固有或基本的重要指标。虽然回答你的最后一个问题是正确的，事实是，其他条件相等的情况下，贷款规模较大将导致更健康的贡献利润率。
That's helpful. Thank you. And to, sorry, just as a quick follow up, I guess, how should we think about what borrowers are requesting versus what they're being approved for? Is there a meaningful difference there in this environment?
这很有帮助。谢谢。还有，很抱歉，只是一个快速的跟进问题，我想知道我们应该如何看待借款人的要求与他们被批准的额度之间的差异？在这种情况下，是否存在重要的差别？
Yeah, I would say that, you know, relative terms, they've gone in very much in the opposite directions. I think the request for credit, the underlying fundamental demand for credit is as high as we've seen it in quite a while. And there's a lot of underlying demand from borrowers. Conversely, our ability to approve them is as limited as it's been in our company's history as a reflection of the UMI. And so you sort of have them at cross-purposes right now.
是的，我会说，在相对的方向上，它们确实朝着两个极端发展。我认为对信用的需求，对信用的根本需求是我们有一段时间以来所见到的最高点。有很多借款人的潜在需求。相反地，我们批准借款的能力则是在公司历史上最有限的，这反映了UMI的状况。因此，现在你可以说它们在相互对抗。
Thank you, Sanjay. It's helpful. Thank you, Pete.
谢谢你，Sanjay。这很有帮助。谢谢你，Pete。
We will take our next question from James Hossett with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
我们将会从摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·霍塞特那里提出下一个问题。请提问。
Great. Thanks. On to follow up on that last question, you know, clearly you guys had to tighten things up. And, you know, given the low savings rates is that demand for credit seems understandable. But what are you seeing in terms of actual conversion that is offers for loans that are actually converted into loans and what that origination looks like? Are you seeing any movement in that metric?
非常好。谢谢。接下来继续问最后一个问题，你知道，显然你们必须加强管控。鉴于较低的储蓄率，需求信用看起来是可以理解的。但是，就实际转化来说，你们在借贷方面有什么观察结果？借款机会真正转化为贷款，并且贷款发放情况如何？你们是否看到这一指标有任何变化？
Hey, Jim. Yes, sir. You're asking about the conversion rates?
嘿，吉姆。是的，先生。您是在询问汇率转换吗？
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah. I think our metric finished quarter was around 8.5%. So meaning of all applicants who fill in an application and submit about 8.5 of them become funded loans.
是的，我觉得我们上个季度完成的指标大约是8.5%。这意味着所有填写并提交申请的申请人中，大约有8.5% 获得了贷款资助。
I think at our peak, that number was closer to 24%. Got it.
我记得我们的最高点时，这个数字接近24%。明白了。
And can I just ask for a clarification? What about, um, that's of all applicants. What about of a approved loans that actually ultimately convert? Any sense what that looks like?
我可以问个明确的问题吗？那么，关于所有申请者呢？那么对于最终转化为批准的贷款呢？你有没有对这个情况有所了解？
From loans that are approved and offered to funded loans, I believe, is on the order of about a third? About a third. Okay. That's helpful.
我相信，从批准和提供贷款到实际放款的比例大约是三分之一吧？大约三分之一。好的，这很有帮助。
And then I wanted to go back to the committed capital partners. Just any additional color that you can provide in terms of the things that they are looking for, whether it be specific metrics or catalysts to get them moving forward.
然后，我想回到已承诺资本合作伙伴那里。你能提供的任何额外信息都将有助于我了解他们所寻找的内容，无论是具体的指标还是推动他们向前发展的催化剂。
And if you feel like for them, maybe it's the same thing as we're talking about for borrowers that we kind of would like to, people would like to see underlying rates come down and then for your own metrics, you, oh, my, come down.
如果你觉得对于他们来说，可能就像我们所说的借款人一样，他们也希望看到潜在利率下降，然后对于你自己的指标来说，你的情况，哎，也下降了。
Just wondering if your potential committed capital partners are kind of waiting for a similar relief across the market or if there are other issues that they're watching.
我想知道你潜在的资本合作伙伴是否在等待市场出现类似的减轻压力，或者他们还关注其他的问题。
Sure, yeah, thanks James. Let's see. I'll certainly for counterparties that are, so would they newer to unsecured consumer credit, there's a lot of investigation of the asset class itself.
当然，是的，谢谢詹姆斯。让我们看看。我肯定会寻找那些对于无担保消费者信贷比较新的交易对手，因为对于这一资产类别本身需要进行很多调查。
With respect to upstart, I don't think it's as much about whether rates are going to move or UMI is going to move. It's more about developing a confidence in their diligence that we are going to hit the targets that we claim, meaning when we predict loss estimates, they are accurate and so they care a lot about our accuracy rather than the absolute direction of rates in the economy right now.
关于新兴市场，我认为问题不在于利率是否会上升或UMI是否会变动，而更在于培养对他们的勤奋工作产生的信心。我们要确保我们声称的目标能够实现，也就是说，当我们预测损失估计时，它们是准确的。所以他们更关心我们的准确性，而不是当前经济中利率的绝对走向。
And then there's clearly a macro component as well. All of these counterparties have credit committees and macro committees that take point of view on broad asset allocation and what the right timing is for these investments.
然后，还存在一个明显的宏观因素。所有的交易对手都有信贷委员会和宏观委员会，他们对广泛的资产配置和投资时机有自己的观点。
And so many of them are actively engaged with us in asking what we're seeing in our data with respect to macro trends and loss rates in the different segments of the borrower base.
而且其中很多人都积极参与与我们的互动，询问关于我们从数据中观察到的宏观趋势和借款人群不同领域的损失率。
So that's sort of, I think, at the highest level how they would think about the framework of investing with us and then with respect to specific deals.
所以，我想，这是他们在最高层次上对于与我们投资框架的思考方式，以及与具体交易有关的方面。
As we've said before, you could sort of broadly class counterparties into some that are interested in maybe earning a premium on the return right now and they're trying to understand where that can come from, certainly in an irate environment like today's that they can lock something in.
正如我们之前所说，对手方可以大致分为一些对于当前可能获得回报溢价感兴趣的人，他们试图理解这些回报可能来自哪里，尤其是在像今天这样的利率环境下，他们可以锁定某些回报。
It can look very good down the road a year from now if the economy changes. And then there are others who are less interested in return premiums, they're interested in predictability and that's where, as we've said in the past, in some instance, because we have a very precise understanding of our model calibration.
如果经济发生变化，明年到头来看，情况可能会好转得非常好。而另一方面，有些人对回报率不太感兴趣，他们更关注的是可预测性，这正是我们过去所说的一些情况，在这些情况下，我们对我们的模型校准有非常准确的理解。
We can sort of co-invest with them, put some skin in the game, give them some level of call comfort on that dimension. That's great.
我们可以跟他们一起投资，参与其中，对于这个方面给予他们一定的信心。这太棒了。
Hey, thanks for all the details. Yeah. We will take our next question from Ramsey L.F. all with Barclays. Please go ahead.
嘿，谢谢你提供的所有细节。好的，我们接下来将回答来自巴克莱的Ramsey L.F.的问题。请提出你的问题。
Hi, thank you. This is John Cauffion for Ramsey. My first question is on slide 21 and you may have already answered this and I missed it. But when I look at the cadence of the auto-secured loans, it looks like that halved from Q2 of, well, last quarter to this quarter. I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the drivers there for what caused that.
嗨，谢谢。我是John Cauffion，来自Ramsey。我的第一个问题是关于第21张幻灯片，也许你已经回答过了，我可能没有注意到。但是当我看到汽车担保贷款的节奏时，我发现它从上个季度的第二季度减少了一半。我想知道这是什么原因导致的，你能否谈谈背后的驱动因素。
Yeah, yeah. Thank you for the question. Yeah, auto-lending, I would say, is currently subject to all of the same sort of dynamics and forces as our core business, meaning rates themselves have risen and default trends look very similar to what they look like in the unsecured world.
是的，是的。谢谢你的问题。是的，我可以说，自动借贷目前受到和我们核心业务相同的动态和影响，也就是说，利率本身已经上升，违约趋势看起来与无担保领域非常相似。
Maybe there's some slight timing differences. But in terms of the relative level of increase in default rates, they very much mirror what we've seen in our core business.
也许存在一些微小的时间差异。但就违约率的相对增长水平而言，它们与我们核心业务所见的情况非常相似。
Just as our core business has had to retrench, as we've had to recalibrate our models, as a lot of people, as Dave described, have fallen above the 36% line and out of the approval box, a lot of those dynamics are very similar in auto as well.
正如我们的核心业务被迫进行撤退，正如我们不得不重新调整我们的模型，正如很多人，如戴夫所描述的那样，已经超过了36%的线，走出了批准的范围，许多这些动态在汽车行业也是非常相似的。
With the difference that auto being a more nascent product for us, we've been calibrating a newer model in real time, whereas with personal lending, I think we've got a very sophisticated model that we're just kind of make sure that it stays calibrated to the macro environment.
我们与个人贷款不同的是，汽车贷款是我们的一种较新的产品，我们一直在实时调整一个较新的模型。而对于个人贷款，我认为我们已经拥有一个非常复杂的模型，我们只是确保它与宏观环境保持适配。
So, this is a short answer. There's a lot of the things that have happened to our core business have also conspired to restrain auto-lending volumes a little bit as well.
所以，这是一个简短的回答。我们核心业务发生了许多事情，这些事情也有些限制了汽车贷款的规模增长。
All right, that's very helpful. And I just wouldn't follow up question. Last quarter, when you reported in August, you already had a month behind you, that being July.
好的，非常有帮助。我只是想再问一个追问。上个季度，在八月份你做报告时，你已经有一个月的时间了，那就是七月份。
So, given that you had your Q3 guide, what was the biggest surprise? Given that you still have two months to go, what was the factor that, you know, I know it wasn't a big miss of guidance, but there was a miss. What was the thing that you thought essentially was the thing you were wrong on, or was the biggest surprise there versus what you originally thought of?
所以，鉴于你们拥有Q3指南，最令人惊讶的是什么？考虑到你们还有两个月的时间，你知道，我知道这并不是一个很大的差错，但确实出现了差错。你觉得最让你感到意外的是什么，与最初的设想相比，你认为你犯了一个错，或者说最大的意外是什么？
Yeah, thanks. Great question. I'll highlight two things that we sort of alluded to in our remarks. One of them is, just with respect to the transaction volume, the transaction revenue, one of our model launches this quarter, allowed us to essentially measure the sort of macro impact along the lines of what we do for UMI, but at a borrower and a segment level, which is a greater level of granularity in terms of macro sensitivity in the borrower base. And what that model quickly understood is that what's happening in very recent months is that the, what you might think of as the primer or the more affluent borrowers are sort of starting to accelerate in their default trends, whereas the less affluent borrowers who were earlier affected last year in the sort of environment that we've been through are now much more stable. And it led us to be, I would say, a little bit more conservative in our approval of more affluent, sort of primer borrowers. And so that was one impact that I think versus what we had contemplated in our guidance was a bit of a delta. And the second one was just sort of a mechanical thing that showed up in net interesting come. But it had to do with essentially a process change around the timing with which we were charging off bankruptcy loans. We went from the resolution of the bankruptcy to essentially the announcement of the bankruptcy and it had the effect of pulling some charges forward from future quarters up into Q3. And that's something that we weren't expecting when we announced guidance.
是的，谢谢。好问题。我将强调我们在讲话中隐含的两个方面。首先是关于交易量和交易收入方面的。在这个季度，我们的一个模型推出，使我们能够在宏观敏感性方面，以UMI为例，对借款人和借款人群体进行更细化的测量。这个模型很快就明白了，在最近几个月里，较富裕的借款人开始加速违约趋势，而较不富裕的借款人则更加稳定。这使我们在批准更富裕的借款人时更加保守，与我们在指导意见中设想的情况有所不同。这是一个影响，我们认为与我们在指导意见中考虑的有所不同。第二个方面是一种机械性的改变，从终止破产到破产宣告的时间改变了我们核销破产贷款的时间，这使得一些未来季度的费用提前到了第三季度。这是我们在发布指导意见时没有预料到的。
Great. Thank you very much. Thank you. We will take our next question from Rob Wildhack with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
好的，非常感谢。谢谢。我们接下来会有来自Autonomous Research的Rob Wildhack提问。请开始你的提问。
Hi guys. I wanted to ask about the co-investment summary on slide 20. Next quarter, the 40 million co-investment was marked up, 11 million, so up 30. And now the 66 million is up, but it's only up to 7 million or like 11%. What were the drivers behind that markdown versus the second quarter?
大家好。我想问一下第20张幻灯片上的共同投资摘要。下一季度，这个4000万的共同投资被标记为涨价了1100万，上涨了30%。而现在6600万的共同投资也有上涨，但仅上涨了700万，约为11%。相较第二季度，导致这一减值的驱动因素是什么？
Yeah, thanks, Rob. That was a great question. Yeah. What you're seeing there is maybe a bit of retrenching in how we're valuing that. So it's representative of what you might think of some headwinds over the past 90 days in how all of that system is performing. Look, one of the things that's on our minds that I think is relevant here is we're not necessarily adjusting this valuation for current seasonality. And it occurs to us we're in the worst seasonal part of credit right now. So credit, it is at its best from a seasonal standpoint in the sort of February to April standpoint, time frame, and it's sort of at its worst in the October, November timeframe. And so I think some of what's happening here is that like the seasonal headwinds, the credit performance are making this asset maybe look a little bit worse than it will in six months. And we haven't necessarily gone to the level of sophistication of adjusting for seasonality. So I think that's part of the story there. But some of it also may be durable and therefore what it would indicate is that stuff is performing marginally worse than it looked 90 days ago.
是的，谢谢，罗布。那个问题很好。是的，你所看到的可能是我们在估值方面有一些收紧。所以它代表了过去90天中整个系统遇到的一些阻力。看，我们在意的一件事是，我们并没有把当前季节性考虑进来调整这个估值。我们意识到我们现在正处于信贷的最糟糕的季节部分。信贷的最佳表现是从二月到四月这个时间段，而从十月到十一月这个时间段则是最差的。所以我认为这里发生的一些情况是，季节性阻力和信贷表现使得这个资产看起来可能比六个月后更差一些。而且我们还没有将调整季节性考虑在内。所以我认为这也是其中的一部分原因。但其中一些也可能是持久的，因此它意味着这些东西的表现比90天前的情况稍微差一些。
Okay, thanks. And then on the committed funding partners, those initial agreements, the ones in place now, I think they were described as $2 billion in funding for the next 12 months. So that was roughly spring 23 to spring 24. So of the existing agreements, could you remind us what's locked in for beyond spring 24 and for anything that's not, what's the process or arrangement for extending or renewing those agreements?
好的，谢谢。关于已经承诺的资金合作伙伴，现在的那些初步协议，我记得他们被描述为未来12个月的20亿美元资金。大致对应的是2023年春季到2024年春季。所以在现有的协议中，你能否提醒我们哪些已经确定延续到2024年春季之后了？对于那些没有确定延续的，是否有任何延长或续签协议的流程或安排？
Sure. Yeah, thanks. I guess I would say we haven't necessarily given specific numbers beyond the spring. I do think there were some announcements out there in the public which alluded to some longer timeframes for some of those agreements. And so some of those we expect to continue. I think with the other ones, as we get towards the sort of one-year mark and depending on how happy the counterparties are and how happy we are and how well everything is performing, you might imagine that there will be discussions around renewal. So I think we'll be undertaking those probably in the near.
好的。嗯，谢谢。我猜我会说，在春季之后，我们没有给出具体的数字。我认为公众上有一些关于这些协议的长期时间范围的公告，我们预计其中一些将会继续存在。至于其他的，当我们接近一年的时间并且双方都满意，并且一切表现良好时，你可以想象我们将会就续约进行讨论。所以我认为我们可能会很快就开始进行这些讨论。
Okay, thanks. We will take our next question from John Hecht with Jeffries. Please go ahead.
好的，谢谢。我们将接受来自杰富瑞的约翰·赫克特的下一个问题。请开讲。
Afternoon guys. Thanks very much. So just, I think you did about 1.2 billion of grown originations and it looks like you cleared nearly a quarter of that through your on-balance sheet securitization. So further remaining 75-ish percent, I'm wondering, can you just let us know what was the characteristic? Were they kind of bank buyers that have been around for a while? Were they more credit funds? Were they more tied to the counterparties and the forward flow agreements that you just were talking about? How do we think about the mix of that disposition?
下午好，大家非常感谢。所以，我觉得你们大约做了12亿美元的增长起源交易，看起来你们通过平衡表证券化清算了将近四分之一。因此，剩下的大约75%的部分，我想知道一下，它们的特点是什么？它们是那些已经存在一段时间的银行买家吗？还是更多的信贷基金？还是更多地与你刚刚谈到的交易对手和前沿流动协议有关？我们如何考虑这种处置的组合？
Sure, yeah. Thanks for the question. I mean, maybe just one clarification about the securitization. It was executed in Q3, but a lot of the loans that were sold into the securitization were originated in Q2. So it wasn't necessarily a component of Q3 origination. I think at a higher level, yeah, we sort of have these three channels, if you will, of funding.
好的，没错。谢谢你的问题。我的意思是，关于资产证券化，可能有一个澄清。它是在第三季度执行的，但是很多卖入资产证券化的贷款是在第二季度产生的。所以它不一定是第三季度产生的一个组成部分。在更高层面上，我们可以说我们有这三种渠道，用来筹集资金。
One is the bank and credit union channel where they are typically doing the origination themselves as a lender. There is our sort of traditional forward flow channel, and now there's a newer channel of what you might think of as a committed capital. I think in rough terms, the forward flow and the bank channel numbers are somewhat comparable, and the channel by which we are providing loans into committed partnerships where we call in mess is slightly larger than the other two, but there's a pretty good balance across the three.
其中一个是银行和信用合作社渠道，他们通常作为借贷者自己在进行发放。还有我们传统的前向流通渠道，现在还有一个新的渠道，你可以将其视为可靠的资本。粗略地说，前向流通和银行渠道的数据是相当可比的，而我们通过承诺资本为合作伙伴提供贷款的渠道略大于其他两个渠道，但这三个渠道之间的平衡还是相当好的。
Okay. Thanks very much. No, I have. We will take our next question from Juliano Bellonia with Compass Point. Please go ahead. Just kind of going back to the committed capital investment disclosure that you have. I'm curious, you know, it may have come up early in the call, you know, roughly seeking what the balance is of loans that you have outstanding that you have that debt-convested structure attached to at this point.
好的，非常感谢。不，我有的。我们将接受来自Compass Point的Juliano Bellonia的下一个问题。请开始吧。我想问一下关于您已经做出的资本投资承诺的披露情况。我很好奇，您可能在通话早期提到了大约多少贷款是与您目前拥有的债务转换结构挂钩的。
Yes, thanks Juliano. I think that's disclosed in the few, I don't know the exact number on my fingertips right now. Last quarter, if you recall, the co-investment represented approximately 5% of the total, and I think that's probably still a relatively consistent ratio.
是的，感谢朱利亚诺。我觉得这在一些文件中已经披露了，我现在不清楚具体的数字。如果你还记得上个季度，合作投资大约占总投资的5%，我认为这个比例可能仍然比较一致。
Very helpful. In this slide, there would be a similar brief question to have related to the revenue from fees. Is there any, do you have the numbers for the platform or for all fees versus the servicing income for the quarter and how that breaks down for the period? And the genesis of that is to kind of back into what the take rate was on originations.
非常有帮助。在这张幻灯片中，将有一个类似的简短问题与手续费收入相关。关于平台或所有费用与本季度的服务收入，您有相关数据吗？以及这个时间段内的具体细分情况是什么？最初的目的是为了了解贷款发起的收益率如何。
Yes, Juliano. I think those numbers are also disclosed in the queue in one of the notes. And I don't have them on my fingertips again, but I think you will see something like, you know, transaction revenue is maybe 3 to 4x the servicing revenue. Transaction revenue is up about 7%. Servicing revenue is declining slightly as the outstanding balance in the platform declines. But if you want the specific numbers, there will be in one of the notes in the queue. We can point you to it offline if that's helpful.
是的，朱利安诺。我认为这些数字也在一个备注中的队列中披露。虽然我现在不太记得它们，但我想你会看到类似的内容，比如，交易收入可能是服务收入的3到4倍。交易收入增长约7%。由于平台上的未决余额下降，服务收入略有下降。但如果你想要具体的数字，它们会在队列的一个备注中。如果有帮助，我们可以在线指给你看。
That's helpful. I appreciate it. And then, you know, thinking about the kids, kind of where you are on the funding side, I realized this is a question you've been asked a few different ways at this point. But when you think about where you are, you know, from an operating perspective, you have to need more volume to get incremental margin and cover your fixed costs. You know, I'm curious, you know, how you're thinking about the cadence of, you know, how funding could come back or how you're, you know, preparing to manage the business, you know, for the foreseeable future. So if this environment persists for a number of quarters beyond, you know, 4Q.
这很有帮助，我很感激。然后，考虑到孩子们的问题，从你们在资金方面的情况来看，我意识到这个问题你已经回答了几种方式了。但是当你考虑到你们目前的经营情况时，你肯定需要更多的交易量来获得增量利润，并覆盖你们的固定成本。所以我很好奇你们是如何考虑资金储备的回流或者你们如何准备管理这个业务的，至少在可预见的未来。所以如果这个环境在第四季度之后的几个季度持续存在。
Sure. Yeah. Let's see. Well, as I said, you know, in the remarks, I think there's a lot of, there's a lot of good conversations happening on the funding side that the platform constraint today on growth is on the borrower side and our inability to approve. But in anticipation of that eventually changing, and as we said, I want to one of the earlier questions, that could change because rates dropped. It could change because sort of default trends normalized and UMI drops. And in anticipation of that, we definitely want to have a few more agreements teed up and some partnerships ready to go at that time. But it isn't the gating, you know, item on platform growth currently.
没问题。好的。让我想想。嗯，正如我之前所说，您知道，在备注中，我认为在资金方面有很多很好的对话，目前平台增长的限制在于借款人方面，我们无法批准借贷。但是，鉴于预计情况最终会发生改变，就像我们之前回答的一个问题一样，这可能是因为利率下降了，也可能是因为违约趋势趋于正常和UMI下降了。为此，我们肯定希望提前准备好一些协议和一些合作伙伴关系，以便在那个时候立即启动。但目前它并不是平台增长的限制因素。
So I appreciate the answers to questions and I will jump back into you.
所以我很感谢对问题的回答，我会回复你的。
Thank you. We will take our next question from Reggie Smith with JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Yeah, good evening. Thanks for taking the question. I was curious, you were talking earlier, I think a previous analyst had asked about approvals and sounds that make you suggest that roughly a third of the loans that are approved are ultimately funded. Can you tell us kind of how that has trended and it changed over time? And then the second part of the question. Do you ever approve borrowers for less than they request? And do people tend to take those loans if you do?
谢谢。我们会接受来自JP Morgan的Reggie Smith的下一个问题。请提问。是的，晚上好。感谢您回答问题。我很好奇，您之前讲到了批准和听起来大约有三分之一的贷款最终会被资助。您能告诉我们这种趋势随着时间的推移是如何变化的吗？然后问题的第二部分。您是否会批准借款人要求的数额以下的贷款？如果是这样，人们是否会接受这些贷款？
Thanks. Sure, thank you, Reggie. Let's see. The answer to the first question, well, the first question was what has happened to what we call acceptance rates, which is the instance where a loan is approved and an offer is made and what percentage of those are accepted by the borrower and those are currently at the 30% level. They've definitely trended down. I think they probably used to be in the 60s, a couple of years ago before the environment sort of became very challenging. And the intuition is obvious as rates have gotten very high, even though borrowers are getting approved under 36% in some instances, the rates that they are being approved for are quite high and their propensity to accept those rates is a lot lower than it was before.
当然，谢谢你，雷吉。我们来看一下。对于第一个问题，嗯，第一个问题是关于我们称之为接受率的情况，也就是贷款被批准并提供报价后，借款人接受的百分比，目前这个比例是30%。这个比例明显有下降的趋势。我想几年前在环境变得非常具有挑战性之前，这个比例可能是在60%左右。直觉上很明显，由于利率变得非常高，尽管在某些情况下借款人被批准的利率低于36％，但他们被批准的利率相当高，而且他们接受这些利率的意愿比以前低很多。
And the second question had to do with a reminder of your second question, Reggie? Yes, I was curious if somebody comes in with a loan request and it's totally out of whack with their income or debt levels. Do you ever approve them to less or can you do things like that to improve acceptance rates and always your side below? It just doesn't make economic sense to do a loan. Any color there will be a loan.
第二个问题和你的第二个问题有关，雷吉？是的，我很好奇如果有人提出贷款申请，而该贷款与他们的收入或债务水平完全不一致，你是否会同意减少贷款金额或者采取其他措施以提高贷款批准率，而始终保持在你们可接受的范围内？不仅没有经济意义，这样的贷款还会带来风险。任何相关信息对于贷款来说都是重要的。
That's a great question, Reggie, and we absolutely do that. There are many applicants who are asking for loan levels that we are not able to approve them for. What we can do is say, well, we can approve you for a lower amount and very often those are accepted instead. And so that is a component of our acceptance rates and it is a business practice we have. Do you find that those loans tend to perform as well as you would expect? What do they do? What insight could you glean from those types of transactions? They perform as expected on a risk-adjusted basis. Because we are approving them for a lower amount, that adjustment to the risk is commensurate with the risk that we perceive. And so they, at the end of the day, for investors, perform as expected just as full offers do compared to what we call these counter offers.
这是个很好的问题，雷吉，我们确实这样做。有很多申请人要求的贷款额度我们无法批准。我们可以说，我们可以批准您一个较低的金额，而这些往往被接受。因此，这是我们接受率的一个组成部分，也是我们的业务实践。您发现这些贷款的表现是否与您预期的一样？它们在风险调整的基础上表现如预期般出色。因为我们为这些贷款批准了较低的金额，所以风险调整与我们所感知的风险相一致。因此，在投资者的角度来看，它们与全面报价相比的表现与预期一致，与我们称之为这些对价的情况相比。
That makes sense. The last question for me, marketing, I saw was up sequentially. It had been, obviously, down a lot from the previous year. Anything to call out there on the marketing side, competition, advertising, what's driven that? Yeah, Reggie. I think the thing to call out is that we're at the point now where, as we are, as we said, a borrower constrained platform and as we regrow into prior volumes, all of that growth will be paid growth. So obviously, as we've contracted over the past 18 months, we've prioritized organic and unpaid volume, repeat volume, if you will. We've got a great benefit from that. But I think the incidence of repeat loans will start to subside just given the recent volumes on the platform. And as we sort of regrow into higher volumes, such as where we've been previously, you'll see higher incidence of paid growth versus unpaid growth. That will have the effect of bringing up the overall average acquisition cost.
这很合理。对于我来说，最后一个问题是关于营销方面，我看到了顺序上升的趋势。显然，与上一年相比，下降了很多。对于营销方面是否有什么需要注意的地方，竞争、广告，是什么推动了它的增长？是的，Reggie。我认为需要注意的是，现在我们到了这样一个时刻，即如我们所说，一个受借款人限制的平台，随着我们重新发展到以前的交易量，所有的增长都将是付费增长。显然，随着我们在过去的18个月中规模的缩小，我们优先考虑了有机和未付费的交易量，重复交易量。我们从中获得了很大的好处。但我认为，由于最近平台上的交易量，重复贷款的发生率将开始减少。随着我们重新发展到以前的更高交易量水平，你会看到付费增长与未付费增长的发生率更高。这将导致整体平均获取成本上升。
That makes sense. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Gerard, I will turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
没问题。好的。谢谢。谢谢。目前没有更多的问题了。杰拉德先生，现在我将把会议交回给您，以进行任何额外的总结或结束的发言。
All right. Well, thanks all for joining us today. We continue to make strides in building the first and best AI lending platform in the market. There is not a company better positioned than upstart to lead this transformation of the international services industry. So thank you and we'll see you next time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
好的。好的，感谢大家今天参加我们的会议。我们在建设市场上第一个也是最好的人工智能借贷平台方面取得了巨大进展。在引领国际服务行业的转型方面，没有比Upstart更具优势的公司了。所以谢谢大家，我们下次见。今天的通话到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以断开连接。