Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Umus, quick shout out to my newest patron, Jim Kay. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. In my opinion, battery energy storage is still slept on by many Tesla investors and definitely the general public, so I want to make sure I'm trying to keep us all informed on this market.
So here we have just one state in the United States, New York, looking for 3 gigawatts by 2025 of battery energy storage. Remember, gigawatts is power or what's flowing through the hose and then gigawatt hours would be the capacity basically how big is the bucket. A very loose rule of thumb to go from gigawatts power to gigawatt hours capacity would be to multiply by 3. That number will vary region to region but in the United States the average duration for these battery storage projects is about 3 hours.
Bear in mind, Tesla offers both 2 and 4 hour duration megapacks. So this 3 gigawatt target could be right around 9 or 10 gigawatt hours or 1 fourth of Tesla's entire capacity at its megapack factory in Lathrop.
New York is having some challenges with deployment but the 2 biggest states for battery storage, Texas and California so far. In California, the Kaizo market surpassed 5 gigawatts deployed earlier this year and in Texas the Urcaught market could surpass 10 gigawatts of deployments by the end of this year. 10 gigawatts could be about 40 gigawatt hours.
One of the main challenges for deployments in New York is actually fire safety as since May of this year they've experienced 3 fires at battery storage locations. Another point to drive home, it's not just major solar or wind farms that can capitalize on these battery storage systems, there are many smaller scale applications like Starbucks that can capitalize as well. I said the US average was 3 hour duration systems but in California most best projects have 4 hour duration. And as of today, California now has 6.6 gigawatts or in the neighborhood of 25 gigawatt hours of best online in the state.
I've talked in the past about the huge opportunity for Tesla in the Indian market when it comes to battery storage and recently Narendra Modi announced plans for 12 gigawatt hours of battery storage, a project costing $2.5 billion although it's not set to come online until 2029. And a market Tesla already has experience in Australia just today was announced the world's most volatile electricity market. NEM is not net energy metering but national electricity market. The takeaway, Australia has an urgent need for energy storage to mitigate that volatility, looking at some of the next closest when it comes to volatile electricity, Japan and the Philippines but also select regions in the US including California and Texas.
RICEAD a research firm has concluded that by 2050 Australia alone would need 640 gigawatt hours of energy storage or the equivalent of about 16 Tesla megapack factories to supply this one market. And believe it or not those figures are actually more conservative than what the Australian state organizations have been throwing out there. No worries I'll continue to harp on the Tesla energy story as I've done now for the last year if not longer.
One last thing for today, at the end of Q3 Tesla had $1.9 billion in unsatisfied performance obligations that they will actually recognize over time. So if you do the math and divide that by Tesla's new diluted shares outstanding, that gives you 55 cents in earnings per share that Tesla will recognize at some point in the future. They just have not done it yet. Tesla's second megapack factory in China was supposed to break ground Q3 of this year. The last we heard their goal was to begin production in the second quarter of 2024.
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Drive Tesla reporting that Tesla is planning to open a 60,000 square foot which as far as I know would be the largest in Canada service center in the fall of 2024 in Hamilton, Ontario.
Tesla Europe posted the Model Y just broke the record for the most sold car in a single year in Denmark, a record that was held since 2013. Clearly, there's still time left this year for Tesla to further improve on this new record. I found some unofficial user tracked data showing that Tesla may have delivered 12.9 thousand Model Y's so far this year in Denmark which would surpass the 12.9 thousand units of the VW up that previously held the record. This is the sub $25,000 vehicle that was just dethroned.
We already talked about this earlier this week so Tesla charging on X is a little slow but they did indeed make it official that the Sparks Nevada V4 site is indeed live. And according to Sawyer, most likely from a community submission, two more V4s just opened in Spain.
Here we have consumer reports saying that Ford's blue cruise remains their top rated ADAS system. Just in case anybody is new to the story, if you go to consumer reports, fill in the anthropic partners right on their website, you will see the first company listed the Ford Foundation. I'll let you make of this whatever you will. For your daily dose of comedy and the write up they said Tesla, once an innovator in ADAS with its autopilot system, remains in about the middle of the pack. After all this time, autopilot still does not allow collaborative steering and doesn't have an effective driver monitoring system. While other automakers have evolved their adaptive cruise control and lane centering assist systems, Tesla has simply fallen behind. Part of the problem, the tests they conducted really only focused on steering, speed and driver monitoring. They said automatic lane changes and reacting to traffic lights were not evaluated. I won't waste your time with this but they had Ford first place with an overall score of 84. One second place was super cruise with a score of 75. And you have to go all the way down below VW to find Tesla's autopilot that got a score of 61. I'm pretty confident everybody out there that's experienced the Tesla NAG would have something to say about keeping the driver engaged, getting a score of 3 out of 10. Confusingly though in the write up they also say most advanced driver assist systems however do not adequately monitor drivers. Some of this testing was done in quarter 4 last year and then some was done between June and August of this year. Honestly though, for me consumer reports is effectively irrelevant so if you want to go read more of the detail it's certainly out there for you.
Joe Tettmeyer shared some images today of cyber trucks out and about at Giga Texas but one in particular was cool to look at. What we have here is a cyber truck body marked scrap in the recycling yard. No takeaways for me really it's just something we don't see every day.
On LinkedIn we have a sales lead from LK machinery one of the bigger companies making Giga press machines in the world saying tomorrow they're taking the wraps off the LK 16,000 ton die casting machine which I believe is the first in the world. Here you have the image now in this moment we don't know who this is going to but there's a chance that tomorrow we actually find out. I think most of our minds are going to a similar place going back to that Reuters article where some sources said Tesla would need new bigger Giga presses with massive clamping power of 16,000 tons or more to do that single piece casting. So yes this is certainly something to watch and potentially incredibly exciting but no guarantees just yet.
So nobody gets excited Tesla's cyber beer and cyber steam limited edition set is already sold out but Arthur on X shared a video of an unboxing that some of us won't get to do.
This paying was in the news affair mount today for its tech day event but it's tough to decipher what's actually going to make it to production and what's more of a marketing ploy.
这则新闻中,该公司的技术日活动备受关注,但很难分辨哪些实际会进入生产阶段,哪些更多只是营销手段。
One project they unveiled was a modular flying car with a parent vehicle that can replenish the flying car's energy. Not really a surprise that the parent vehicle looks very similar to a cyber truck. They did say this has potential for emergency services and it's being developed with a focus on mountain rescue.
They also announced a new robot the PX5 and here's an image so if you were wondering if X-Pang was still a mini Tesla I'd confidently say that's a yes. And by that I just mean they're still trying to copy Tesla's playbook and they're definitely inspired to put it politely by Tesla's designs.
The UAW started these negotiations with the big 3 wanting 40% raises and now they've come out saying they're looking for at least 25% which would be 2% of the gap between where some of the other automakers have made an offer. But we have to keep in mind these targets could shift. Bill Ford said we could live with a deal we have proposed but just barely. This reporting has both sides the closest they've been so far by far so maybe the end is in sight.
Here we have Toyota saying that EVs are only for the few specifically talking about the Australian market. Toyota Australia just said EVs are less suitable for Aussies than hybrids on the same day that they announced their refreshed BZ4X. Their VP of sales said EVs currently don't make sense in countries like Australia where the majority of electricity continues to come from coal fired power stations. And reading the next line will tell you why they're saying what they're saying. Toyota has been the market leader for hybrid vehicles in Australia for more than 2 decades. And as the Model Y has been Australia's best selling SUV year to date, naturally Toyota will want to slow that trend down. So they said right now hybrid vehicles are a better fit than BEVs for most consumers. They're more affordable and don't require charging infrastructure. Their cars for the mass is not for the few. We went on to say rest assured our Australian customers will be offered Toyota BEVs in multiple segments in the coming years. Then in a conflicting statement they said it's all about when for EVs and they said now is absolutely the right time and it all starts with the BZ4X. Toyota's excuse is the same as it's always been. They said it'll take many years before we have enough battery material and renewable energy to support mass adoption of BEVs. The diversity of technologies is Toyota's strength. I'm not so sure that's the case. Toyota's scientists are saying that the raw materials required for one BEV could instead be used to make 6 plug-in hybrids or 90 HEVs. As I've said in a video in the past, this is really just Toyota not wanting to do the hard work of building out new supply chains for full battery electric vehicles and learning all of those new competencies. They'd rather spend time trying to publicly justify why they're going to keep doing what they've always done.
Chris Zhang on X shared this video of an FSD-like function from the latest version of X-Pang. Just a quick reminder though, X-Pang uses HD maps and LIDAR. I'd also add it's not really the detection of your environment that's the hardest thing but rather the decision making of the actual system.
And if for some reason you needed another anecdote of how X-Pang is a knockoff Tesla, here you go. Trevor Milton, a name we haven't heard about in a long time which has been nice, was ordered to pay $165 million in damages back to Nikola. His sentencing for fraud is scheduled for November 28.
Here we have Nissan considering electrification. But their product strategy boss said it could be a while. Eventually, we will have to electrify the truck. They're exploring a lightweight pickup truck that could come to market at the start of the next decade. According to a Nissan dealer, Nissan will aim for affordability. They don't want to be in the Rivian or Cybertruck space. Nobody knows the Cybertruck price. He said they want to be in the affordable $40,000 range. But this could be more than eight years from now.
Honda is now shelving plans to jointly develop affordable EVs with GM due to a changing business environment. Honda CEO said after studying this for a year, we decided this would be difficult as a business, so at the moment we're ending development of an affordable EV. GM and Honda will search for a solution separately. This project itself has been cancelled. The joint venture for affordable EVs off the table, but they said GM and Honda continue to work on co-developed EVs like the Acura ZDX and the Honda Pro Log. They're still working on fuel cell tech and autonomous ride vehicles.
由于业务环境的变化,本田现在搁置了与通用公司共同开发价格亲民的电动汽车的计划。本田首席执行官表示,在研究了一年之后,我们决定这在商业上将会很困难,所以目前我们结束了价格亲民电动汽车的开发。通用和本田将分别寻找解决方案。这个项目本身已经被取消了。价格亲民电动汽车的合资企业不再进行,但他们表示通用和本田仍在继续合作开发类似 Acura ZDX 和 Honda Pro Log 的电动汽车。他们仍在致力于燃料电池技术和自动驾驶出行工具的研发。
As you can see in this last paragraph, GM is still talking out of both sides of its mouth right now, saying they still plan to deliver a comprehensive portfolio of EVs across categories, including lower cost models. We'll believe it when we see it.
We did get some clarification from yesterday. A GM spokesperson said that $5 billion commitment that GM was not going to spend when Mary Barra was speaking was for the Honda EV partnership. I won't at all be surprised if this is also cancelled, but last week Honda said it aimed to establish a joint venture with GM and Cruz in the first half of next year to begin a driverless ride hail service in Japan in early 2026.
It's important to note these UAW negotiations are now having global implications. So those announcements for $28 billion of joint battery factories between the big three and companies like LG, SK and Samsung are now all in question. SNE research has said the cost of running plants in the US is already about twice the cost of other regions. Now these companies are hesitant about the cost increases in these UAW negotiations, and certain component makers are now reconsidering their plans. It's really going to boil down to the increased labor costs versus how much money these companies will be able to get from the government in terms of tax credits and incentives. Don't forget the $11.7 billion in loans that have been offered to Ford and GM from the Department of Energy.
An automotive professor has said we were too optimistic about the IRA just thinking about the credits only. They should consider slowing down the pace of aggressive investments in the US.
Apparently it's not just X-Pang who's debuting flying cars but we have Subaru who, bear in mind currently, only has one EV available, the Solterra, which is basically the busy forex with a different badge. So they're really doing nothing on their own in terms of electrification, but they're maybe skipping that and going to flying vehicles. And yes, I know these mobility shows can be four concepts like this, but I really think they should be spending their time focusing on an EV of their own.
And what I believe is a cost reduction attempt Ford is offering unpaid leave to UAW factory workers at a plant in Louisville. The workers can select a two week period before October 25th. Ford did say however this is part of their normal course of operations and it's not related to the UAW strike.
It looks like Vin Fast will pursue a hybrid approach when it comes to selling its vehicles in the United States, they're going to do direct to consumer like Tesla but so far that's only in California. Now they're looking to add 27 dealers into the mix in phase one. Some of the dealers they're looking to onboard in phase one are listed here. This would be the first of three or four phases. It's possible there could be a few Vin Fast dealerships operating this year, but in 2024 they said that number will be significant. Vin Fast plans to sell four crossovers in the US and build three at a future factory in North Carolina starting in 2025. By the end of this year, Vin Fast expects to introduce a second US model, the VF9 three row crossover starting at 84.2 thousand.
Ford is increasing the prices of some F-150 lightning variants. You may recall when they launched this vehicle they said it was going to start below $40,000 and then very quickly it started going up from there. The price hikes for the 2024 model year will be anywhere from 2000 to $9,500. The way I see it Ford may be coming to the realization that they're going to sell less of this vehicle than they originally thought, so if production is going to be somewhat limited, the only way to mitigate this unfortunate situation for Ford is to charge higher prices.
Exhibit A that price hikes don't always signify huge demand and price cuts don't have to signify falling demand.
展品A表明,价格上涨并不总是意味着巨大的需求,而价格下调也不一定意味着需求下降。
No video for me tomorrow on Thursday I have some family coming in so I'll be spending time with them. Don't forget check out Vessie linked below. I do not think he will be disappointed. Thank you if you do. You can find me on X linked below. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.