Hey everybody Rob Mayward here, welcome back to Tesla Daily. Today we've got some new information on Tesla's quarterly results from their 10Q quarterly filing with the SEC, we'll talk about those. We've also got some updates on the Model 3 Highland Cybertruck and a few other items as well.
Alright, looking at the stock, Tesla today finishing in the green, so I guess we'll take that after the couple of red days to close the week after earnings last week. Up just for 100% today closing at $212.08, the NASDAQ outperforming up 3.10% per percent. It was outpacing for a little bit there in the day but couldn't quite last that throughout the day. So hopefully we'll see a stronger week this week. We'll depend a little bit on other earnings results I think. This is a pretty big earnings week so I have to keep an eye on some of those things throughout the rest of this week.
Alright, looking at the 10Q, in case you haven't accessed these before you can find these on Tesla's IR page, I would recommend everyone kind of reads through these but we will go through some of the high level takeaways and of course some of the things that we like to look at with these each quarter gives us a little bit more insight on the quarterly results which is always good to have.
First thing that I wanted to take a look at as I expected some FSD driving revenue, deferred revenue to be recognized this quarter, there was a bit of that, doesn't specify specifically, what I've done it there but doesn't specifically say that it was FSD deferred revenue. However, Tesla does say that revenue recognized from the deferred revenue balance in the automotive sales revenue bucket was $360 million for the period ending September 30th.
So if we look at the last 10Q, the best way to track that, last quarter through June, it was $256 million that had been recognized so a little bit over $100 million recognized this quarter. Now this can come from other things like supercharging over the IR software updates that Tesla will recognize portions of those things, the portions of that revenue because some of it gets deferred because Tesla has to maintain things through over their software updates through supercharging over periods of time. So as that happens, Tesla will recognize some of that but largely this is from FSD.
They do say that Tesla does say that they have about $3.3 billion of deferred revenue sitting in automotive sales and again majority of that likely related to FSD. For that number that was $3.17 billion last quarter so a little bit of an increase this quarter but more interestingly that deferred revenue recognition.
And then Tesla does say that they expect to recognize $815 million of this balance, this $3.72 billion, sorry $3.27 billion, that balance $815 million over the next 12 months. And that is also pretty similar to what they had said last quarter that was about $750 so increasing what they expect a little bit but not anything too significant there.
Also in the deferred revenue category so that we were talking about automotive sales there, pretty interestingly though in energy and storage this continues to increase in importance. So Tesla says that they have deferred revenue of $1.05 billion here and they recognized over the last, let's see there's a lot of highlighting here so let me get orientated but they recognized from deferred revenue balance of the beginning of the year $511 million so far this year.
So let's take a look at those two numbers first. This was $1.1 billion last quarter so that balance has decreased a little bit but they recognized had recognized $329 million through Q2. So what they recognized this quarter was actually pretty significant what is that $180 million ish from that balance that was recognized this quarter and the deferred revenue balance shrunk a little bit by I think that'd be like $5 million.
So still a pretty significant chunk but a decent portion of revenue recognized this quarter and then also very interestingly they say that as of September 30th total transaction price allocated to performance obligations that were unsatisfied or partially unsatisfied for contracts with an original expected length of more than one year was $1.9 billion. Now this line last quarter was significantly smaller only $800 million here so basically they're saying that for contracts that are going to be recognized for more than one year out from now the balance there grew by $1.1 billion this quarter so pretty significant they say that over the next 12 months they're going to recognize $700 million of that versus last quarter that was just $200 million.
So with energy storage as Tesla's talked about in the past this is a little bit of a the category fluctuates a little bit based off of this deferred revenue and timing of completion of projects so Tesla may install or deliver a lot of storage once it's actually operational though that's when they recognize the revenue.
So when we look at the gigawatt hours installed each quarter. that's something to keep in mind and that's why I was forecasting for a little bit more volatility than what we ended up seeing quarter over quarter in this line and part of that is because of things like this where we have this deferred revenue balance.
So it'll be an interesting one to keep an eye on I think overall the takeaway from this portion is that a significant increase in deferred revenue here.
所以这将是一个有趣的事情值得关注。我认为总体来说,重点是这部分出现了显著增加的递延收入。
So I'm going to keep an eye on and we'll continue to watch that in future quarters. And then always interesting to see what Tesla guides for for capital expenditures we did see that increase to I think in all time high this quarter of about $2.2 or sorry $2.4 billion the total deferred revenue or sorry the total capital expenditures so far this year have been about $6.6 billion.
So previously Tesla's guidance was for $7 to $9 billion in capital expenditures this year and then in the following two years.
之前,特斯拉的预计今年和接下来两年的资本支出为70亿到90亿美元。
Now they've updated that in this 10Q to exceed $9 billion this year but then revert back to $7 to $9 billion in the following two fiscal years in line with the previous guidance.
So it looks like that's kind of what they're guiding for. I wouldn't expect it to materially exceed that probably by $100 million or $200 million if we continue to see a little bit of an increase in that quarter over quarter especially as Cybertruck deploys but with this I wouldn't expect anything super major and then as Elon said on the conference call they're not going completely full throttle and still maintaining that guidance for now of $7 to $9 billion for the next two years.
Obviously that could change Elon has talked about how that's somewhat difficult to forecast for but we have seen Tesla pretty consistently meet guidance on that capital expenditures line.
So interesting to see that. The next one here we talked about the capital that Tesla had raised in terms of the cash flow of this quarter.
好有趣啊。接下来我们讨论的是特斯拉在这个季度的现金流方面所筹集的资金。
So that increased in part from financing activities a little bit more information on this not a whole lot but they say that in the third quarter they issued $2.5 billion in aggregate principal amount of automotive asset backnotes.
So exactly what they said in the deck or I guess the line that they indicated in the deck this was going to be from asset backed note from an asset back note.
So that's basically Tesla pulling up leases that they have on their balance sheet essentially and essentially selling that or using that as an asset rather to raise this capital and then that's the assets backing that Tesla will pay off over time.
One thing that is a little bit new here that got some coverage today or some attention today Tesla has updated a portion of their 10Q that talks about certain investigations and other matters.
So this is always a good area for the media to look into for headlines. So if we just look again for reference to the second quarter 10Q Tesla had a little bit of an update here I guess not an update here but they've got note in here on the that they've received requests from the DOJ for documents related to autopilot and FSD features in this quarter that has been updated so for the last few quarters we've seen this same sort of a note without any change to the text this time it's a little bit different though they specifically note this time that they have received requests for information including subpoenas from the DOJ.
So previously what this means is that the DOJ could be asking Tesla for information there could be information in there that Tesla doesn't necessarily want to hand over and then they would make the DOJ get a subpoena for that information which would now be potentially what has taken place with Tesla adding this note.
So it doesn't necessarily mean anything too bad obviously it could down the road we'll have to wait and see but it basically the update here is that the DOJ is is now more formally or seeking a legal you know forcing legal function for Tesla to hand over certain information versus before it would have just been a request from the DOJ.
So that's the update there's also a little bit of language updates here in terms of talks about FSD and autopilot but then it also talks about requests for information including subpoenas regarding certain matters associated with personal benefits related parties, vehicle range and personnel decisions.
So like they had said previously. to our knowledge no government agency in any ongoing investigation has concluded that any wrongdoing occurred but something that is obviously worth disclosing a year and a ten queue. So hopefully that kind of clarifies if you'd seen any updates on this again this isn't anything necessarily new that the DOJ has been looking at just a little bit new in terms of how they are seeking that information.
So obviously some know we can continue to keep an eye on as we have been doing.
显然,我们可以继续像我们一直以来那样密切关注一些人。
And then last couple of things just a quick update on solar obviously we didn't see too much of a we have continued to see a little bit of a decline I guess a pretty significant decline in still decline in solar deployed over the last few quarters. So Tesla obviously has talked about that being related to interest rates if you've been following other solar companies they've been having some pretty significant challenges to but Tesla at least in the ten queue saying that they are continuing to focus on ramping energy storage products improving solar roof installation capability and efficiency and increasing market share of retrofit solar energy systems. So although there wasn't too much of an update in terms of their targets or anything with solar in the earnings deck Tesla at least in the ten queue still saying that this is a focus of theirs though this line does match what the second quarter ten queue side as well.
And then finally I guess the last two things on the ten queue I always like to take a look at revenue by region obviously in this quarter there's a little bit of an impact from downtime both at significant significantly it seems like at Texas and at China although that became a little bit less significant than maybe we expected with the transition to highland but obviously that impacted deliveries pretty significantly. So with that context in mind revenue down four percent quarter over quarter in the United States down twelve percent in China so that was the biggest decline in terms of revenue quarter over quarter and down five percent in other so United States Europe and other regions probably pretty similar total revenue down six and then China underperforming again probably impacted most significantly by highland you can see the year over year comparisons their US other growing with other outpacing in China declining a little bit. So it'll be more interesting next quarter when we have a little bit more full production capacity presumably but we'll continue to watch that.
And then the last thing from the ten queue Tesla also included an exhibit that showed their sort of letter of agreement with Zachary Kirkhorn stepping down as CFO so I just wanted to point out that there's really not anything at least in my opinion too interesting in this but as it was a new edition in terms of the an exhibit probably worth at least kind of showing it and saying that there's really not too much information again that I found in here that was of note.
All right let's move on from the ten queue hopefully not too bad there but again I definitely recommend people go through and read those once you do a few of them they become not so bad.
All right so from Berliner G on X here we've got an update that Tesla has delivered you know some of the first highland model threes so we're finally seeing that milestone and there's been maybe some some reports of this over the last couple of days but now we're definitely seeing them in full force in Europe so we've got a report here from Germany we've got another report here from Germany on a different highland model three got a report from the Netherlands so it looks like Tesla has kind of started to unleash these vehicles they've obviously arrived from the ports so definitely an exciting milestone and I'm sure we'll continue to hear more about this more about the highland as it gets into customers hands we'll start to see initial reviews here pretty soon so exciting to keep it out for those.
I've also got an update on Giganovata from Zangler who's been following there with drone flyovers looks like Tesla's doing a little bit of construction work in the parking lot where the expansion at least the render of the expansion has indicated that they would be expanding too so we don't know for sure if this is anything significant yet but hopefully some signs of early expansion and construction beginning with this expansion plan we had heard from Zangler that Tesla had sort of finalized this a couple of weeks back that we talked about so hopefully that finalization now leading to this step with construction but again no necessary indications that that's what this is yet but we'll hopefully Zangler will continue to keep an eye on that and we'll do the same.
And then you may have seen some discussion this weekend on X about EV surveys and people indicating that they didn't have much awareness on EV tax credits EV prices and price changes specifically lately we'd actually talked about. this already I'm not sure why it resurfaced again so much this weekend but Elon did end up commenting on a thread that had kind of spawned from this from James Stevenson on X kind of just talking about affordability and desirability and you can see the Venn diagram here that there's maybe not full overlap in terms of awareness with those things right now so Elon did reply to this saying I said that we would advertise we were doing so at a small scale and we'll do so at a larger scale as we figure out what works best so we've talked plenty about this I don't want to spend a ton of time on it today but as we had mentioned previously it kind of makes sense for Tesla to start small expand that over time as they you know figure out what works best as you want to saying here so I'm not surprised to see that I kind of assumed that that was the case but I think it's good for him to clarify that for people that maybe thought that you know what Tesla is doing right now is is all that they're ever going to do now we still have to see them eventually expand this so we'll wait for that but it does make sense as a plan to just kind of smart start small this is not a core competency of Tesla of course because they have not done this historically very much so they're gonna have to build some skills there over time
all right next up this one's also actually kind of a little bit old but Tesla Roddy today pointing out I think this was from April actually the IIHS which does safety testing among among other things has published reports on vehicle theft claims so what's interesting here is that and perhaps unsurprisingly Tesla is performing really well in terms of low vehicle theft rates in fact of the top 20 models Tesla has the top two with the model 3 in the model y and they have five in the top 20 in terms of relative claim frequency of theft claims so I calculated the percentage rate here if these you know you can see the total number of vehicles that they're looking at for 2020 to 2022 model years see the number of claims Tesla is two one thousandth of a percent looks like frequency rate in terms of claims obviously whole vehicle theft not super common but among the most stolen vehicles there are interestingly the dodger or the Dodge Charger Hellcat is sitting at I think it was a I'd have to calculate the rate again but I think it was a two and a half percent rate here someone can double check that so pretty high that one was a little bit of an outlier some of these other ones we're sitting I think around eight one hundredths of a percent so a significantly higher multiple versus Tesla obviously Tesla's tech features century mode GPS tracking capability should be pretty significant deterrence for things like this and glad to see that coming through the data that should significantly maybe not significantly but it should have an impact on things like insurance rates and obviously just it's a nice car ownership experience when you don't have your car stolen so good to see some of that data
and then we do have a couple new sightings of the cyber truck as we tend to see on most days now this one was at the Hollister Hills recreational vehicle area park so this was spotted by stretch CJ2L on Instagram you can go check out there's a couple more images here but just Tesla doing some testing of hill climbing and things like that which we have seen before but looks like that is continuing to happen and then Elon did bring the cyber truck to the F1 race in Austin over the weekend so we can actually see a little bit of a video here from the inside of the cyber truck that was shared on Instagram by Ty Haney it's pretty short but gets us a little bit of a glimpse at the interior looks like you can see a little bit on the screen there too try to pause that in the right spot but Elon's got the cameras up here this is the the rear cameras and not the front camera like we have potentially seen before so maybe not quite as interesting you can see some of the apps on the side which we had noticed before as well but always nice to get a little bit more insight on the cyber truck and thankfully we don't have to wait too much longer until that delivery event
All right and then the last few things here on Warbeck on X noticing that Texas has now started their $2,500 rebate program for electric vehicles unfortunately so you can see the program opening date here up today unfortunately unfortunately this is going to be limited to 2000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or a lot of other electric drive vehicles plug in or plug in hybrid under this grant program so it's only a $5 million grant in total pretty insignificant though potentially some of our listeners here may be able to get in on that I'm not sure why they would do $2,500. and then limited to 2,000 seems like that would go further if they would do like something like a $1,000 credit and give that to 5,000 cars but nevertheless I would expect that to be you know drained pretty quickly so hopefully they'll increase that but for now that is the the limit so just 2000
好的,接下来关于Warbeck on X的最后几件事,他注意到德克萨斯州现在已经启动了他们的电动汽车2500美元的退款计划,不幸的是您可以看到这个计划的开放日期是今天,不幸的是,不幸的是,这将仅限于2000辆氢燃料电池车或其他插电式或插电混合动力电动车在这个补贴计划下,总计仅为500万美元的补贴,相当微不足道,尽管我们的一些听众可能有机会参与其中,我不确定为什么他们会给予2500美元的补贴,而且还限制在2000辆车,如果他们给予类似于1000美元的信用并将其提供给5000辆车,似乎会更有帮助,但无论如何,我预计该计划将很快消耗殆尽,希望他们能提高限额,但目前只有2000辆。
and then we do have some interesting looks at the V4 supercharging internals from Kristoff 2206 on X spotted one of these that didn't have the cover on got some nice photos doesn't mean a whole lot to me but for the electrical engineers out there probably very interesting to look at these yeah quite a few of them pretty up close so again if you are curious about that you can find that on X
and then one thing I didn't cover on Friday that I meant to cover and it kind of dropped off my note list on accident sorry about that but Tesla had announced that until the end of the year the SX and Y will be eligible to transfer free unlimited supercharging to so very similar to what we saw with Tesla's transfer of FSD allowance this is now sort of a nice incentive here for the end of the year for buyers in that situation where maybe having unlimited free unlimited supercharging on their vehicle was one big item keeping them from upgrading now that gate is a little bit removed so you know we'll see if Tesla extends this beyond the end of the year but so far we haven't heard anything about that sort of one-time FSD transfer so probably a good thing to take advantage of while it is an option
and then outside of Tesla specific news same old Garcia of Nuevo Leone as we have talked about many times he has announced that he is going to be seeking a temporary leave of absence for his governor position to run for president of Mexico so obviously that'd be pretty interesting he is he's quite young at 35 years old and has been pretty seemingly heavily involved in Tesla's factory plans with gigamexico he was actually at the investor day when Tesla announced this so interesting to see I don't know how that really affects Tesla but presumably they've got a pretty strong relationship so could be beneficial long-term if he were to be successful in that campaign not something that I follow so I'm not sure what his odds would be
然后在特斯拉特定新闻之外,我们如同我们之前讨论过的那样,Garcia of Nuevo Leone宣布他将寻求临时请假离开州长职位来竞选墨西哥总统,显然这将非常有趣。他只有35岁,与特斯拉的工厂计划以及Gigamexico似乎有很深的参与。他实际上在特斯拉公布这个计划的投资者日上出席了会议,所以很有意思。我不知道这对特斯拉有什么实际影响,但可以推测,他们之间的关系肯定很密切,所以如果他在竞选中获得成功,从长远来看可能会有益处。这不是我关注的领域,所以不确定他获胜的机会如何。
and then lastly the UAW has expanded their strike on Stellantis today 6800 new members at their sterling heights assembly plant where they make the RAM 1500 so just like the Kentucky truck plant they are now hitting one of Stellantis's Stellantis's presumably most profitable factories as well they I think they kind of had this planned out beforehand they seem to be very methodical in terms of how this is unfolding strategically so I'm not too surprised at this and I wouldn't also be surprised if we see something you know similar escalation for GM in you know the next couple of weeks but keep an eye on that obviously significant impact for Stellantis at this time
all right that I wrap it up for today so as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on X at Tesla podcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday October 24th episode of Tesla daily thank you