Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dilalumus, quick shout out to my newest patrons, Roy V and Merlin H. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. The Windows being bulletproof may still be a long shot, but Elon did just say we emptied the entire drum magazine of a Tommy gun into the driver door al Capone style. No bullets penetrated into the passenger compartment. Here's one screen grab of the aftermath and I counted around 46 shots. So just in case you were wondering what Tesla's quality assurance testing is going to look like for the Cybertruck, here's your answer. And then they take it one step further and naturally go ahead and drive it right on the street. Tesla may not be doing very much advertising, but I would say they're pretty good at marketing. There's plenty of speculation online about was this a real Tommy gun, what size were the bullets? As far as I can tell, it's all speculation, so I won't add to it. Hopefully though in the weeks ahead we get the real answer and potentially the video of that actually happening. I'd also add it's not clear how far away from the Cybertruck they were shooting from, and while most people will never be involved in drivebys, it's nice to know, but more importantly gets at the overall rigidity and durability of the vehicle.
I'm not sure why, but these photos are really making me want to take out my driver and tee it up from about 15 yards away and let it rip. This afternoon Morgan Stanley and Adam Jonas put out a new Tesla stock note that was, again, surprisingly competent, just want to highlight a few things. The main takeaway though, if Tesla is entering this next phase with this much caution, that should signal major caution for everybody else. Tesla has achieved industry leading scale per model and is widely recognized for achieving high levels of efficiencies in manufacturing production and vehicle design. Yet Tesla's auto margins are currently materially below that of ice products. The point, if even Tesla's auto margins for EV production are compressing right now, just think about what's going to be happening to the rest of the industry. And the big question, how much will legacy OEMs pull back their EV targets, even if they don't do it publicly, the chances of them hitting any publicly listed targets have now decreased. If Tesla struggles to generate a 5% operating profit margin for EV products with US workers making $45 per hour, what's the EV margin outlook for Detroit OEMs, whose EV workers may potentially earn closer to $100 an hour in all-in comp and benefits. It's worth remembering that Tesla is widely seen as the low cost EV producer in the West. I think calling into question some of these ice vehicle bands in 2035 may be a bit premature, even if we have 2-3 years of a slowdown, that would still leave roughly a decade for something like this to need to change. We see Tesla's incrementally negative outlook as a sign the company wants to air on the side of caution to protect the house at a time of elevated macro, consumer and geopolitical risk. At various times in Tesla's history, the company's strategy has swung from offensive to defensive. The current tone has clearly shifted to the latter. While the reset may hurt shares near-term, we believe this may prove to be the right strategy for the company and its stakeholders over the long term.
I believe it was Gregor Truck who shared this first, but we got the official Vin Decoder for both the Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi. Digit 4, TNC, pretty obvious. Digit 5, B for Daycab, E for Truck, left hand drive. Then Digit 6, we get some more information for EG and H, the Class 8, that's of course going to be for the Semi. Then we have two classes for the Cybertruck, G and H, giving them a range for the gross vehicle weight rating that is different than the curb weight more on that in a second, of between 8,000 and 10,000 pounds.
The GVWR also includes the payload capacity, how much weight you can put on board the vehicle. The curb weight is just how much the vehicle weighs with nothing in it. Effectively, the GVWR is how much the vehicle can weigh after being loaded and still operate properly. So no, to make it clear, this does not mean that the Cybertruck has to weigh at least 8,000 pounds. We also learn with Digit 8, we have D for dual motor or standard and E for triple motor for performance, both for the Cybertruck.
Here's a list with some other trucks and their gross vehicle weight ratings. You can see the Rivian R1T coming in at 8,532 pounds. Ford's F-150 Lightning is coming in between 8,250 and 8,550 pounds for the GVWR. If you're really impatient and you want to try to do some math, Tesla did say a while back that the payload capacity for the Cybertruck would be 3,500 pounds, but it's anybody's guess if that will remain true for the production variant. Personally, we've already waited this long, so rather than speculating and guessing on the weight or the curb weight of the Cybertruck, I'll just wait another few weeks and see the official number.
This would also suggest that at least for now and for the beginning of production, the ramp up period, there will be no quad motor Cybertruck, but that of course doesn't mean there will never be one, just not to begin. And given Elon's comments on the call this week about the Cybertruck production challenges, that should come as no surprise. For any in the area, there will be a new Tesla gallery with 4 vehicles, 2 inside, 2 outside for test drive in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. Customers will be able to go there and check out the vehicles, but for actual delivery, the closest site is Peabody, Massachusetts, about an hour away.
Tesla Europe posted 14 years ago, we delivered the first Tesla Roadster to customers in Europe. Today, we hit 1 million Tesla vehicles on the road across Europe. A big milestone indeed, and even better when we recall all of the Tesla demand is cratering in Europe talk earlier this year. Just to back it up, here's a chart from Troy Tesla showing us Tesla's registrations in Europe month by month and also year by year. So, 2023, the best year by far already surpassing 2022 and that happened back in September. Busted growth stories have never looked so good.
Tesla North America only posted if you order Model S X or Y in tech delivery before the end of the year, you can transfer your free unlimited lifetime supercharging to your new vehicle. Especially for early Model S or X buyers, this is a really nice incentive to maybe encourage them to upgrade. It's possible I missed it so correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Tesla has ever offered free unlimited supercharging on the Model Y, so they're just saying if any of those early Model S or X buyers wanted to trade in for a Y, they have that option too. There's most likely only a few thousand owners out there that still have unlimited lifetime free supercharging, but still a nice offer nonetheless.
Not really anything new, but on Tesla's support page they said V4 currently supports peak rates up to 250 kilowatts, same as V3, but it's future proof to allow for updates and new features. You may remember a few months back, there was a press release for V4 in the UK and in that document they did mention 350 kilowatt charging, that's most likely the future proof level, still TBD when we actually see that.
Today, Nuevo León said that Tesla was still planning to build a factory in that the government would spend more than $130 million on infrastructure to support construction. I do want to say these narratives out there that Tesla is now delaying the next gen vehicle and there for some reason reconsidering Gigamexico, that's not at all what Tesla was saying. It's not really that Elon is hesitating on the project, he said we will have a factory in Mexico, they're just waiting a little bit to see how things shake out. Santa Catarina's mayor said local officials are beginning to improve the infrastructure in the area where the factory will be. At the state and municipal level, we're moving ahead with the studies for the infrastructure requested by Tesla. We hope in the first half of 2024 to have the start of Tesla's construction.
Something to keep an eye on, China moving to restrict graphite exports, a key element in EV batteries. Simon said this year China will produce 61% of flight graphite of 92% of anode material. China will require special export permits for 3 grades of graphite.
Graphite for batteries can be produced either from mined material which is natural or synthetic processes using petroleum feedstocks, which helps the cell charge quicker and last longer but is more expensive to produce. China is by far the biggest processor of natural graphite and generated almost 70% of the world's synthetic graphite last year.
Is this retaliation? It's certainly possible. Given that year to date through September, the United States has bought the most graphite from China that are affected by these new export controls. It's too early to say how this will impact anything other than maybe prices going up in the short term and this isn't some sort of outright ban. It's really just adding additional steps like these extra permits which require people to hand over more information.
Graphite is the most common material used in the anode side of lithium batteries because of the low cost, high energy density and stable structure. However, there's some good news early last year Tesla signed an agreement with Australia's SIRA resources which operates one of the world's largest graphite mines in the southern African country. This reducing its dependence on China for graphite.
Even better, Tesla would be buying this supply from the processing plant in Vidalia, Louisiana, one of the only locations in the United States. Specifically, the first battery grade natural graphite active anode material supplier in the United States. And last year we talked about the $100 million loan that SIRA resources got from the Department of Energy for this specific location.
Tesla does plan to buy up to 80% of what the plant produces but the actual number is going to vary because they have to prove this whole operation and Tesla's purchasing wouldn't start until 2025. Long term though, from Bloomberg this facility in Vidalia could produce enough graphite material for around 2.5 million EVs by 2040. Tesla also has the option to buy more subject to the expansion.
Green the only well known Tesla software hacker or sleuth said, with an update congestion fees may be coming at supercharger sites if you charge above 80% on a congested supercharger. Object on road pushed by a map service, kind of like ways but detected by potentially other Tesla vehicles. That would be a really nice feature. And the option to auto dial 911 on airbag deployments.
Naturally, not everybody would love to see these congestion fees but of course with all of these other automakers set to use the network. This would encourage people not to just sit while they don't need to and help them get out of the way to make room for somebody else. And or potentially use that predictive analysis to route users to a different location if the distance isn't that much further if one is congested and one other is not. But the object on the road one for things like blown tires, a deer, a cone that's fallen over if other Tesla vehicles can detect it and then it gets pushed to the fleet, that'd be pretty nice.
According to the Environment Minister, Gigabrelin in the first year only used 17% of the approved water amount. Instead of the permitted 1.8 million cubic meters, Tesla and Grunhaida used only 300,000 cubic meters of water in the first year. This has not been as big of an issue as of late but it's good to know that even if Tesla were to double production at Gigabrelin, they would still most likely be well below their permitted allowance.
I saw a drive Tesla Canada report at first but the Model Y price has been dropped in Canada by $2,000. The rear wheel drive variant now starts at $57.9,000. They said these are the lowest prices ever for the Model Y in Canada.
At the same time in the United States, Tesla has raised the price of the Model X, plaid variant only by $5,000, now back up to $94.9,000. The dual motor and both Model S variants remain unchanged. That's most likely to keep the dual motor Model X below that $80,000 cap for SUVs when it comes to the IRA credits. With the Model X, they are saying take delivery by December 31st for the full $7,500 tax credit.
What was exciting news yesterday has turned to a bit of a disappointment. Drive Tesla Canada said Tesla already removed those images from the parts catalog showing the ludicrous badge and removed the images of the new wheels from the parts catalog and the collision repair manual. This means one of two things.
昨天令人兴奋的消息,如今却有些令人失望。Drive Tesla Canada表示特斯拉已经从零件目录中移除了展示荒唐徽章的图片,并且将新轮胎的图片从零件目录和碰撞修复手册中删除。这意味着两件事情之一。
First, it could be an actual accident and there's no performance or ludicrous Model 3 coming. But I think the second option is actually more likely and that's that Tesla just didn't want anybody to see this yet, not that it's never coming, because we've already seen those prototype images of the Model 3 with those new wheels we think. So given the badge and the new wheels and the prototype spotting, it seems like they're just taking this down to try to keep it a secret and maybe try to avoid any Osborne effect. But still, no promises.
Today, before Sean Fane was set to speak, GM has raised its offer to match forward, offering 23% wage hikes and other benefit improvements. We've made a substantial movement in all key areas in an effort to reach an agreement and get our people back to work. The majority of our workforce will make $40 per hour or about $84,000 a year by the end of this agreement term. Presumably that would be without benefits. The latest estimates from a consultancy group have the big three suffering losses of $3.4 billion so far from the strike.
Good news for Rivian, they will move ahead with construction on their factory in Georgia early next year where they will make the smaller, more affordable R2 lineup. This site faced a lot of pushback from the nimby crowd for a while and now they're close to finishing grading. The first phase of the factory is set to make 200,000 vehicles a year starting production in 2024 with a second phase capable of another 200,000 per year being complete by 2030. The design of the R2 will be unveiled in 2024. With construction set to begin early next year, this is the green light that Rivian fans have been waiting for so that's good to see.
From car scoops, Lucid is set to unveil the upcoming SUV gravity on November 16th at the LA Auto Show. Set to go into production late next year, the model is being billed as a true force of nature and an ultra high performance luxury SUV. They're promising this will be the most aerodynamic crossover on the market and it'll have an extra large frunk and a clam shell rear opening that offers effortless access and cavernous cargo space. Lucid said it'll have a sanctuary like cabin with the finest appointments with 5, 6 and 7 seat configurations, an expansive glass roof and lounge like second row seats. It'll have a range beyond anything else on the market except their own Lucid air. It'll have bidirectional charging, an optional towing capability and a compliant sports tuned air suspension. We're still roughly one year away from any production of this vehicle but I'm not gonna lie, I'm pretty excited to see this unveil.
I had to read this one multiple times to make sure I was reading the right words but the Justice Department is backing one of Tesla's legal arguments in their lawsuit claiming car dealers and others conspired to limit competition through Louisiana's direct to consumer auto sales ban. Tesla was suing the Louisiana ADA, it was dismissed back in June but then they appealed it. Then the Justice Department just argued that the trial court judge in Tesla's case misinterpreted antitrust laws in her ruling that dismissed the case. Tesla and the Justice Department both said that the judge, Sarah Vance, wrongly held that Tesla was required to show that members of Louisiana's Motor Vehicle Commission had intent to curb market competition. The government did say in its filing it was not supporting Tesla or its opponents and had no view on the proper disposition of the appeal. Tesla has argued that dealers have agreed with one another to harass Tesla with baseless investigations to drive it out of the state. Still certainly a long way to go but a small win nonetheless.
From drive Tesla Canada Ford is recalling 1,400 F-150 lightnings to replace the heaters. This recall covers 450 units in Canada and 930 in the United States and will involve having the heater module replaced. Ford said this heater is crucial for the lightnings windshield defrosting and defogging systems.
The cabin coolant heaters may not have been manufactured correctly.
机舱冷却液加热器可能没有正确生产。
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