Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis, quick shout out to my newest patrons, Banjo T and Richard P. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. As you can tell, I'm in a remote location for the next few weeks, I'll do my best to work with the lighting in the video, but as always we're going to focus on the content, so please just bear with me.
On Friday, Elon replied to a whole Mars saying, Car just drove me around Austin all day with no interventions required, despite the Austin City Limits Music Festival crowd. In the fairly near future, people will wonder why there was ever skepticism about self-driving.
Yes, it would have been nice to know if this was on version 12, but hopefully this Wednesday for Tesla's Q3 financial call, we get an update on how things are going with V12. Don't forget, if you own Tesla shares, you can go ask a question or upvote others. I'll have the link below, the deadline October 18th for 30 PM Eastern Daylight Time. Per the usual, some of the top voted questions are somewhat lame, apologies if any of these are yours. My answers for some of these, how many Cybertruck Deliveries next year? I'm guessing around 50,000. When will the new Model 3 be available in the United States? Quarter 1 next year. Will Optimus be working at the Gigafactory's next year? If so, how many? I would say by the end of the year may be around less than 100.
There is a question asking about V12 progress, and they ask how will you extract a mind's eye view from an end to end network. If they're asking about the visualization, don't forget that Elon said the visualization with V12 is going to be much less important than it is now, and it's not expected to be an exact representation of exactly what the car is thinking. Do you expect the 4680 ramp to support the Cybertruck and Model Y production next year? Depends what you mean, not all Model Y production, but some variants could definitely use 4680s based on the update we just talked about last week.
Remember, no video from me on Wednesday, Tesla's earnings day, everybody and their brother does videos that day, I like to just take in the earnings day and then I'll get back to you with my thoughts on Thursday.
When it comes to Tesla Mega Pack, people are always looking for the next world's biggest project, and of course those are great. But let's not forget about all of these small projects that may not get reported on, but there may be many of that with time actually add up. We have a water treatment plant that just successfully installed a Tesla battery system, as I said it's small 644kWh. Despite that, the Tesla battery pack is estimated to be capable of operating the entire water treatment plant and the city's largest water pump station for up to 7 hours. Don't forget there are far more applications for Tesla Mega Pack than just being paired with these massive wind and solar farms.
Today in China, Tesla has filed for their new Model Y with radar as an option. The public can now submit feedback between tomorrow and October 23rd. This is the last major regulatory process by which a model can be allowed to be sold in China. The Model Y supports options for radar, different style wheels, front fog lights and the batteries are LFP from CATL. On Weibo, Tesla did just confirm that deliveries of the new Model Y in China have begun.
The new HD radar project Phoenix, it's still somewhat of a mystery. We're hearing that they are included with Model S and X vehicles, but the actual functionality is somewhat TBD. When it comes to the Model Y, green the only over the summer told us that some of these new Model Y's with hardware 4 did have radar included. Shortly after though, we were told not all of them and now most of them actually don't. So whether it's due to a supply chain issue or a software compatibility issue, either way we just have to wait and see.
If you missed it, Sawyer put together a good post going over some of the more popular EVs and their frunk size rankings. The question now becomes where will the Cybertruck eventually slot in this list?
I think I have to touch on this post where Sawyer was talking about the losses for Lucid, Neil, Rivian and Ford per each EV sold. I know the knee jerk reaction is to see this list and then start saying how much better Tesla is than all of these companies. And look, right now that's true, but comparing Tesla to these companies is really not apples to apples. Example, here are Tesla's financials year end 2017. If you drop all the way down, you'll see a net loss of $2.2 billion. Tesla's deliveries in 2017, 103.1 thousand. $2.2 billion divided by 103.100 gives us a loss per vehicle of $21.3 thousand for Tesla across 2017. Lucid won't come close to delivering 100,000 EVs this year. Neil will most likely do between 100 and 200,000 sales this year and then Rivian its guidance for 2023 is right around 50,000.
I'm not trying to defend these companies, I'm just trying to lay out some context just focusing on the pure EV makers. Just don't forget, there was a time when Tesla would have fell right on this list with the rest. Maybe not as bad, but the difference is Tesla found a way to get off the list and become profitable, the question remains for the rest.
AutoTrader recently uploaded a video doing a review of the Model S track package and yes they touched on the panel gaps and some other downsides of the Model S, but overall it was a very positive video with the reviewer raving about the Model S and the track package. If you want the TLDW, absolutely move the goalposts this car. I'm lost words. Full video will be linked below.
In France, in September, full battery electric vehicles took a record 19.6% of the market, roughly 1 in 5 new cars sold. If you add plug-in hybrids to the mix, that would take the total to almost 30% of new cars sold being some version of electric.
Sawyer shared this picture of a Cybertruck with the light bar up top. Remember though, this is presumably going to be an aftermarket accessory. Tesla has told us they have a dedicated Cybertruck accessories team, which I might be more excited to see the accessories than the actual deliveries. I did see some people commenting as if they thought this was back on the production version, meaning it was going to be standard with the vehicle, but I do not think that's the case.
I need to briefly add some context to this Cox headline Tesla share of EV segment tumbles to 50%. Here's an example. Year one I sell 100 widgets. Year two I sell 200 widgets doubling my sales. However, in year two there are 400 other companies now trying to copy me selling widgets and they each sell one widget for a total of 400, meaning my 200 sales is now only or tumbling down to 50% of the market. But remember, I just doubled my sales from year one so I'm still sitting pretty. Tesla's leadership has told us on more than one occasion paying attention to this metric is a fool's errand we're not supposed to do it. The market share metric to focus on is Tesla's market share of the overall auto market, not just the EV market because as other automakers release more EVs, Tesla's share of the EV market will naturally come down.
Good news though, in the United States we're on track to surpass 1 million EVs sold for the first time in one year ever. The milestone will likely be achieved in November. In Q3 in the US, EV sales came in at 7.9%. When it comes to the EV share of total brand sales for Q3, we have the 100% club but looking at the rest we have BMW, Audi, Volvo, VW and Mercedes all with 12% or higher of their overall sales being electric vehicles. The laggards that still need some motivation, Toyota, GMC, Subaru and Lexus all still below 2% of their overall sales were EVs. Here's a snapshot of EV sales by brand for Q3 year to date and then we have market share figures on the right. So Tesla's plummeting EV market share year to date still over 56%, looking for second place that would be Chevy at 5.7 and Ford in third at 5.3.
We got some pretty interesting quotes about the Tesla semi performance in the run on less event. Tesla semi operated by Pepsi, traveled more miles per day on average than any other vehicle in the run on less event. Aside from humbling Tesla skeptics, the event demonstrated that electric trucks can match the operations of their diesel counterparts. The drivers used chargers daily putting on a display that called into question strongly held convictions about the limits of trucking battery range. Shout out to Bill Gates.
It's somewhat tough to draw real conclusions from this chart alone because they said use cases, range needs and miles traveled varied based on the routes that the drivers were actually on. Long haul verse regional. Either way though, as you can see, Pepsi's Tesla semi by far traveled the most miles and the second place team was Volvo's VNR electric. The director of Pepsi's fleet said when we looked at the metrics during the run, we were very pleased with how the semi performs. An industry CEO said early data indicates Tesla is the leader in terms of performance and range. They're also the only ones demonstrating super fast charge capability. The run on less data showed Tesla semis can travel about 400 miles and then recharge about 80% in 45 minutes.
The US had 184.5 thousand class 8 trucks registered this year as of August. Electric trucks only accounted for 1.1 thousand of those during the same time. Now that the industry knows the Tesla semi works, Tesla really has two things they have yet to prove. One, volume production of the semi and two, how they will be able to service these semis, which they're working on doing right now with Pepsi.
On average, the Tesla semis traveled 574 miles per day over those 18 days. Second place, the Nikola tray 255 miles per day. But again, bear in mind other operators may have been focused on more regional local deliveries.
Further, what this data fails to capture is that over the next year or so, Tesla will continue to make this product even better before they enter volume production. Not a Tesla app has reported that a new software update for Tesla now offers predictive charger availability. So not only can you see what supercharger stalls are available at the site you're heading to when you're looking to choose one, but now they're going to factor in other drivers who may be in the area also heading to that same location. Data, analytics, AI, software, connected vehicles providing real world value.
Fun fact, Elon took over as CEO of Tesla in October 2008. We're now in October 2023. So Elon has served in this role, most recently technically Techno King for 15 years. If you're thinking, wait a second, wasn't Elon forced to step down as CEO from that SEC settlement over the funding secured tweet? No, he was forced to step down as chairman, a separate role from CEO.
Tesla Europe posted on X that the cyberquad for kids is now available for order. Because I know you're wondering the maximum weight is 68 kg or about 150 pounds.
On LinkedIn, Tesla is hiring for a general manager in Chile, which is in South America, where Tesla has had no presence to date. Tesla is looking for a GM to help launch this market, you'll be the ambassador of our brand in the market and will play a pivotal role in shaping our corporate image. It's always great to see Tesla expand into new markets no matter the size of them, but this is really going to be laying the groundwork for the next gen platform, coming from Gigamexico eventually to export to South America and other regions. Historically, vehicle sales in Chile have ranged between 400 and 600,000 per year. Now when it comes to electric vehicles for 2022, we're talking less than a few thousand.
Looking at the Find Us Locator for Tesla, as you can see looking at South America, there's a whole lot of nothing. From the ITA, International Trade Administration, Chile continues to be a strong trading partner and export market for US companies, largely due to its open market policies, zero tariffs, solid business practices, and low corruption index.
Chile is becoming a leader in renewable energy. Chile's goal is to convert 70% of its total energy consumption to renewables by 2030. Its renewable energy strategy could serve as a playbook for industrialized countries in Latin America and abroad. Admittedly, I'm somebody that wants to see Tesla take over the world or, at the very least, help it transition to sustainable energy, so this is an exciting next step on that journey.
On X, Jeff astutely said, why are so many smart people multiplying Tesla's MSRP reductions by current volume and then marking the loss when there's no understanding what the sales would have been if they didn't cut the price. Further, I would add, Tesla is always in the background continually driving down their cost of goods sold, so it's impossible for us to know what percentage of the price cuts are actually being offset by Tesla driving down the cost of goods sold as well. Just always keep in mind you have to ask the question, what would Tesla's sales have been had they not been reducing price all along.
This article specifically has nothing to do with Tesla, but as I'm sure you can put two and two together, extremely attractive revenues for best projects in the Nordics will indirectly impact the entire market and ultimately Tesla's megapacks. Nordic countries are commissioning renewables rapidly, and as more and more of the industry wakes up to the new economics using best projects, the better it'll be for Tesla energy in the long run.
Sticking with this, there were of course a few comments on this post from Sawyer talking about one of the biggest best projects in the world being announced, but it was not using Tesla megapacks, so people said this is bad news for Tesla. That's just lazy analysis, it could literally be as simple as Tesla already has a two year backlog for the megapack, so maybe the operator of this project didn't want to wait 3 plus years to get their supply. And look, I'll be the first person to tell you there are other competitive companies when it comes to energy storage, definitely in the Chinese market, but Fluence and some others outside of that market too. However, the main point is that overall the best market is so massive we need multiple players, Tesla is not going to secure every single project that's announced. So to infer that just because Tesla is not linked to this one deal, that it's somehow terrible for Tesla energy is just a ridiculous take.
Over the weekend a Reddit user shared this image of a V4 supercharger location being built in Atlanta. They said this was an East Point in a Lowe's parking lot. This would be the fourth V4 location in the United States that I've seen publicly.
In case you see this one, Australia has some laws and safety standards for those little circle batteries that can be a hazard for children if they get them because they tend to eat them. I believe these regulations were put in place due to some horrific stories about that. Basically though, Tesla key fobs and some door sills used those batteries and they didn't meet the standards, so Tesla was fine but they're already working with the authorities to make the necessary changes.
Motor Trend just did a review of the updated Model 3 and the takeaway. Tesla listened to owner feedback and fixed what needed fixing. And we know Tesla will never be able to please everybody but they concluded the new Model 3 is a substantially better car than the already good outgoing model for what we hope will be not much more money and that's something to get excited about.
On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ford was considering cutting one shift for its F-150 Lightning production. This as demand for the EV truck falters according to a memo from the UAW. It said Ford was considering cancelling the shift and indicated that it was looking to build more gas engine trucks instead. This is coming from a union official so take it with a grain of salt but he said it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that our sales for the Lightning have tanked. A Ford Spokeswoman declined to comment on the possibility of eliminating this line on a longer term basis and said there are some shorter term schedule changes as it works through supply chain disruptions. So she said the company plans to temporarily cut one shift due to those constraints.
We've talked about this all year, legacy auto getting through their early adopters and getting to the point where they're kind of stuck realizing it's pretty hard to sell EVs profitably at scale. Ford has said this is unrelated to the UAW strike but in reality it may actually be better for Ford if it was related to the strike and not a lack of demand.
Today, Ford's executive chair Bill Ford implored UAW leaders to end the strike before it further hurts the economy and cripples Ford's ability to compete against the likes of Tesla and Toyota. He said choosing the right path is not just about Ford's future and our ability to compete. This is about the future of the American auto industry. Toyota, Honda, Tesla and others are loving the strike because they know the longer it goes on, the better it is for them. They will win and all of us will lose. Toward the end of last week, the UAW escalated the strike to hit Ford's Kentucky truck plant and that move doubled the number of Ford workers on strike to 16.6 thousand. Bill Ford said if this continues, it'll have a major impact on the American economy and devastate local communities. The CEO of Anderson Economic Group said the industry is nearing a point of no return if the five-week-old strike is not resolved quickly. We're on the cusp of permanent loss of production and suppliers that are at risk of bankruptcy. So far, economic losses may be north of $5.5 billion. And one thing that not many people have talked about, Bill Ford said, what I also keep reminding everybody is when this ends, we all have to work together again and not just work together, we have to become a family again and continue on.
We should get a better look at the impact of these strikes as GM reports their third-quarter results on October 24th and Ford on October 26th. But remember, not all of the impacts are going to hit these Q3 numbers. They'll be seen and felt in Q4.
When Ford said they were at the limit of what they could offer, Sean Fain replied, go get the big checkbook. The one Ford uses when it wants to spend millions on company executives or Wall Street giveaways. Not to oversimplify, but the longer these strikes go on, the more that these companies are ultimately going to have to reduce their spending when it comes to the EV transition.
Good news for GM though, over the weekend they ratified their deal with Unifor in Canada as 80.5% of voters are in favor of the new deal. In case you missed it last week, the UAW has said it's changing its plans from adding new plans to the strike if it decides to every Friday. Now they're just going to do it at random. Why? Sean Fain said Ford thought they could sit back and not make further progress in bargaining because they thought they had the best deal on the table. They thought they figured out the so-called rules of the game, so we changed the rules.
From auto news, Toyota is showing it's serious about electric vehicles with plans to preview its next-gen EV platform with a sexy sports car.
来自汽车新闻,丰田展示了对电动车的认真态度,计划用一辆性感的跑车来预览其下一代电动车平台。
One line later and we're back to reality as these are two concept cars that they'll show off at the Japan mobility show. Like I often say, call me when you have something that's actually going to go into production. Prototypes are easy and you know the rest of the saying.
I know all of you crypto lovers out there are jumping out of your seats with this one for already now to accept crypto for payment for its cars. This will start in the US and eventually be offered in Europe as well.
Cruz has updated its rebel taxi fleet to better recognize different sirens, firehoses and caution tape. It's also beefed up their advanced alert system to help them clear the way for first responders. This coming after a Cruz vehicle was in an accident with a fire truck and also blocked some others when their vehicles get stuck in the street. Cruz has programmed its cars to slow to 70% of the posted speed limit when they detect sirens. In its blog post, Cruz also said in emergency situations, our teams will allow first responders to access the vehicle and manually move it if needed. The reality is, this is how the industry is going to move forward. Unfortunate things happen, the problems are fixed and then that cycle repeats on and on.
Rivian shared an update on its powered tonneau cover and they're happy to report the new units are performing well in terms of durability and repeatability. Our service team will begin reaching out to owners with existing service tickets next week with installation starting later this month.
We haven't talked about Starlink in a while but Qatar Airways which is a pretty huge airline has chosen Starlink and they'll be offering complimentary Wi-Fi to its customers. One step closer to having Wi-Fi speeds of up to 350 megabits per second becoming the norm for air travel.
And shout out to Adam for winning the Model 3 performance. If you happen to see this, congratulations and if true, respect. Hope you guys have a wonderful day, please like the video. If you did, you can find me on X linked below and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.