Tesla's Coming Lithium Crunch // How Long Can Tesla Continue Growing Battery Consumption @ 50% CAGR?

Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee, and this is The Limiting Factor. This video is the fifth section of a full two-hour long video on the Global Lithium Supply Chain that's currently available for paid supporters on Patreon, YouTube, and X.

欢迎大家回来，我是乔丹·盖茨基，这是《限定因素》节目。本视频是关于全球锂供应链的完整两小时长视频的第五节，目前该视频可在赞助者在Patreon、YouTube和X上付费观看。

In the last video, I walked you through my Global Battery Supply forecast for both Lithium and Sodium ion batteries, and today, after two months and four videos, we're finally going to take a look at what all the information we've covered means for Tesla specifically.

在上一个视频中，我带领大家了解了我对锂离子电池和钠离子电池的全球电池供应预测，而今天，在经过两个月和四个视频之后，我们终于要来看看所有我们讨论过的信息对特斯拉来说意味着什么了。

Before we begin, a raft of credits and thanks are in order. Feel free to skip this part of the video and move to the next time stamp if you watched the previous video. I'm including the thanks and credits on each video in the series for the people who haven't seen the other videos. That's because it's not just a thanks, it lets viewers know the quality of my sources and peer review.

在我们开始之前，我们需要给出一系列的致谢和感谢。如果您之前已经看过了上一个视频，可以随意跳过这一部分并继续观看下一个时间点。我在系列视频的每个视频中都会包含感谢和致谢，为的是那些还没看过其他视频的观众。这不仅是一种感谢，还可以让观众知道我信息来源的质量和同行评审。

First, Viva's Kumar reviewed the draft script. Viva's was directly involved with Tesla's Battery Supply Chain for nearly three years, where he negotiated billions of dollars of material spent and also did strategic analysis and forecasting for battery materials. After that, he worked for Benchmark Mineral Intelligence for nearly three years. He's now co-founder and CEO of Mitra Kim. If you'd like to know more about that, check out my interview with Viva's Anchiro.

首先，Viva's Kumar对草稿剧本进行了审查。Viva's在特斯拉电池供应链工作了将近三年时间，期间他进行了数十亿美元的物料采购谈判，并为电池材料进行了战略分析和预测工作。之后，他在Benchmark Mineral Intelligence工作了近三年。他现在是Mitra Kim的联合创始人兼首席执行官。如果您想了解更多信息，请查看我与Viva's Anchiro的采访。

Next, my sources. Rodney and Howard of ArcAequity, a Lithium Analysis and Advisory Firm, spent several hours and long email threads answering detailed questions about mine development. If you're interested in their work, you can connect with them on Twitter with the details on screen or follow the Rockstock channel on YouTube. Cameron Perks of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence walked me through how Lithium supply and demand is evolving over time. I recommend following Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and their CEO Simon Moore's on Twitter to keep up to date with the Lithium industry. Lars Lee's doll provided key data for this video around Lithium Refining Capacity vs Production, and beyond that, I've used a number of graphs from Ristad Energy over the years. You can also follow Lars on Twitter. Austin Devaney helped me put a finer point on a few topics around hard rock lithium mining. Austin was an executive at Alba Morrow and Rockwood Lithium for nearly 10 years, which is one of Tesla's largest lithium suppliers, and now has been at Piedmont Lithium for the past three years, which has an agreement for future supply to Tesla. Bradford Ferguson and Matt Smith of RebellionAir.com reviewed the final release candidate of the video from an investor lens. RebellionAir specializes in helping investors manage concentrated positions. They can help with covered calls, risk management, and creating a financial master plan from your first principles. Bear in mind, this video is not investment advice, and always do your own research.

接下来，我将提到我的信息来源。ArcAequity的Rodney和Howard是一家锂分析和咨询公司的负责人，他们花了几个小时和长篇的电子邮件解答了关于矿山开发的详细问题。如果你对他们的工作感兴趣，你可以在屏幕上找到他们的详细联系方式，在Twitter上与他们联系，或者关注Rockstock频道的YouTube频道。Benchmark Mineral Intelligence的Cameron Perks向我介绍了锂供应和需求的演变趋势。我推荐关注Benchmark Mineral Intelligence和他们的首席执行官Simon Moore的Twitter账号，以及及时了解锂行业的最新动态。Lars Lee提供了关于锂精炼能力与产量方面的关键数据，并且我还使用了Ristad Energy多年来的一些图表。你也可以在Twitter上关注Lars。Austin Devaney在硬岩锂矿开采方面帮助我更加深入地了解了一些话题。Austin曾在Alba Morrow和Rockwood Lithium担任高管近10年，这两家公司都是特斯拉最大的锂供应商之一。现在，他已经在Piedmont Lithium工作了三年，该公司与特斯拉签署了未来供应协议。RebellionAir.com的Bradford Ferguson和Matt Smith从投资者的角度审查了这个视频的最终版本。RebellionAir专注于帮助投资者管理集中持仓。他们可以提供备兑认购、风险管理和从头开始创建金融计划等服务。请记住，这个视频不构成投资建议，请始终进行自己的研究。

Finally, despite all the input I received from some of the leading experts and information sources in the Lithium industry, all the opinions in this video are my own. There are differing views and forecasts within the Lithium industry that I had to reconcile and combine with my own insights and expectations. With regards to the peer review, it was for factual accuracy and a sanity check, rather than for crafting the tone and conclusions of the video.

最后，尽管我从锂行业的一些顶级专家和信息来源获得了大量的意见，但这个视频中所表达的观点都是我自己的。在锂行业内存在着不同的观点和预测，我不得不将它们与我自己的见解和期望相结合。至于同行评审，它是为了事实准确性和合理性检查，而不是为了塑造视频的语气和结论。

Overall, my goal was to create the most comprehensive resource out there on how global lithium supply and battery supply will evolve this decade and how that relates to Tesla. So if you feel like I've hit the mark and get value from the video or my content in general, toss a coin to your witcher.

总的来说，我的目标是在这个十年里创建一个关于全球锂供应和电池供应如何发展以及与特斯拉相关性的最全面的资源。如果你觉得我达到了目标，并从视频或我的内容中获取到价值，那就对你的魔法师投掷一枚硬币吧。

Making a video like this takes months and generally, analysis like this would be packaged up by an analyst house and put in a report that costs thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars. Generally, I make about $2 to $600 per video in YouTube ad revenues. That is, it's the direct support that I get from less than 1% of subscribers through Patreon, YouTube, and Twitter that makes the channel possible. The details for support are in the description.

制作一个像这样的视频需要几个月时间，通常情况下，这种分析会由分析机构整合成一份价值数千甚至数万美元的报告。一般来说，我通过YouTube广告收入每个视频可以赚到2到600美元。也就是说，通过Patreon、YouTube和Twitter上不到1%的订阅者直接的支持，才能让这个频道运营下去。支持详细信息请见描述栏。

Picking up where we left off in the last video, now that we've established a forecast for battery supply for the rest of the decade at a global level, let's specifically look at Tesla. What share of global battery supply can Tesla scoop up? And if they do face a crunch, when could that happen? Bear in mind, the goal here isn't to be highly precise because we're already dealing with so many unknowns, but to get a strategic view of the challenge that Tesla's facing and how they could respond to that challenge.

在上一个视频结束的地方继续，既然我们已经预测了全球未来十年的电池供应情况，那么现在让我们具体来看看特斯拉。特斯拉能够占据全球电池供应的份额有多大呢？如果他们面临紧缺，那么何时可能发生呢？请记住，这里的目标不是追求高度精确，因为我们已经在处理许多未知因素，而是要从战略的角度了解特斯拉所面临的挑战以及他们如何应对这一挑战。

To kick things off, I expect that Tesla will use between 150 to 200 gigawatt hours of battery cells this year from all sources for all products. Tesla stated that, on average, their goal is to grow 50% per year until 2030. If they hit that target in 2030, they'll be consuming 3 terawatt hours of battery cells per year. 3 terawatt hours is also the number that Tesla gave at battery day, so Tesla set firm expectations for a 3 terawatt hour consumption rate in 2030.

首先，我预计特斯拉今年将从各个渠道使用总计150到200千兆瓦时的电池电量，用于所有产品。特斯拉表示，他们的目标是每年平均增长50％，直至2030年。如果他们能在2030年实现这一目标，他们每年将消耗3太瓦时的电池电量。3太瓦时也是特斯拉在电池日上提到的数字，因此特斯拉对2030年的3太瓦时消耗率设定了明确的期望值。

If we take the cell supply data points for each year and divide them by the cell consumption data points for each year from Tesla's expected battery consumption, the result is the graph on screen. What we're seeing is Tesla's battery demand as a share of global battery supply for each year from now until 2030. It grows from 16% this year to 47% in 2030.

如果我们将每年的电池供应数据点除以每年的电池消耗数据点，根据特斯拉预计的电池消耗，得到的结果就是屏幕上显示的图表。我们所看到的是特斯拉从现在到2030年每年作为全球电池供应的占比。它从今年的16%增长到2030年的47%。

One big caveat with this graph is that it's backstop by one overriding assumption, which is that Tesla will continue to have the highest margin of any EV and grid storage company. That in turn will allow them to pay the highest price for batteries and battery materials and gain greater access to battery supply than their competitors.

这个图表有一个重要的前提条件，即特斯拉将继续拥有电动汽车和电网储能公司中最高的利润率。这反过来将使他们能够以最高价格购买电池和电池材料，并比竞争对手获得更多的电池供应。

On that note, Tesla's battery supply is often viewed as black and white. That is, there's enough batteries or there isn't. But the reality is a bit more nuanced. Supply is somewhat variable to price. The more Tesla is willing or able to pay for batteries and lithium, the more they'll have access to. I say somewhat variable to price because most battery cell manufacturers prefer to diversify who they do business with and because it's dependent on how well Tesla's planned out their battery supply for each product, which each have different requirements.

在这方面，特斯拉的电池供应常被视为非常简单的是或否的问题。也就是说，要么有足够的电池，要么没有。但实际情况要更加复杂一些。供应在一定程度上与价格有关。特斯拉愿意或能够为电池和锂支付的费用越多，他们就能获得的数量就越多。我说供应在一定程度上与价格有关，是因为大多数电池制造商更喜欢与不同的商业伙伴进行业务合作，而且这还要取决于特斯拉在规划每种产品的电池供应时的拟定情况，因为每种产品都有不同的要求。

To say the quiet part out loud, if Tesla does manage to secure greater cell supply through greater buying power, it necessarily involves putting some competitors out of business that are already struggling to turn a profit. I'm not saying I want that to happen just that it's the most logical outcome. So if Tesla can afford to pay the most and therefore buy all the batteries and battery materials they need, the sky is the limit until they're consuming all the batteries in the world, right?

如果说出一件私下的事情，如果特斯拉通过更强大的购买力确实能够获得更多的电池供应，那必然涉及到将一些已经难以盈利的竞争对手推翻。我不是说我希望发生这种情况，只是这是最合乎逻辑的结果。所以如果特斯拉有能力支付最高价格，从而购买他们所需的所有电池和电池材料，那么他们将拥有无限的发展空间，直到他们消耗掉全世界的电池，对吗？

No. In my view, at some point in the latter half of the decade, Tesla will start bumping up against government pushback and or the market share displaced by other automakers and energy storage manufacturers that have successfully made the transition to renewable energy. For example, Tesla and BYD are currently the only major auto manufacturers that can turn a profit on EVs and their neck and neck in growth and sales volume. If that continued, even if no other companies survived, Tesla would end up with a 50% market share in a best case scenario. But more than half a dozen auto manufacturers will likely survive. That is, it'll be difficult for Tesla to consume more than a third of global battery supply, which will happen by around 2028 if they hit their growth targets.

在我看来，在后半个十年的某个时候，特斯拉将开始受到政府反对或者其他成功转向可再生能源的汽车制造商和能源存储制造商所占据的市场份额的压力。例如，特斯拉和比亚迪目前是唯一能以电动汽车盈利的主要汽车制造商，两者在增长和销量方面不相上下。如果这种趋势持续下去，即使没有其他公司幸存，特斯拉在最理想的情况下也只能占据市场的50%份额。但是还有超过六个汽车制造商很可能幸存下来。也就是说，特斯拉很难消耗超过全球电池供应的三分之一，如果他们达到增长目标，这将在2028年左右发生。

If you disagree with the 33% estimate and believe Tesla will max out at consuming, for example, 20 or 50% of global battery supply, you can run your finger along the X-axis to get an idea of when Tesla could start facing challenges. As a side note, earlier, I said that my battery supply forecast was aggressive and on the bullish side. If we take that into account and assume a less bullish battery supply of 5TWh instead of 6.4T, Tesla would be consuming 33% of global battery supply a year earlier in 2027. Bear in mind that 5TWh is still 43% above Benchmark's 2030 supply forecast, so it's still bullish against the baseline.

如果您不同意33%的估计，并认为特斯拉在全球电池供应方面的消耗最多会达到20%或50%（例如），您可以沿x轴滑动手指，了解特斯拉可能会面临挑战的时间。顺便提一下，我之前说过，我的电池供应预测是比较激进和看涨的。如果我们考虑这一点，并假设电池供应量比6.4T少5TWh，那么特斯拉将在2027年比预计提前一年消耗掉全球33%的电池供应量。请记住，5TWh仍高出Benchmark的2030年供应预测43%，所以相对于基准来说仍然是看涨的。

After taking all that into account, if Tesla doesn't take a more active role in lithium mining, they'll start facing a lithium crunch as early as 2026 if there's fierce competition. But no later than 2028 if most of the competition goes bankrupt. We'll say 2027 as a base case. After 2027, Tesla might see their rate of battery consumption growth dropped from 50% in 2027 to, for example, 42% in 2028, 29% in 2029, and 22% in 2030. Again, that's if they don't take an active role. We'll talk more about what Tesla can do in a moment.

综合考虑所有因素，如果特斯拉不在锂矿开采中扮演更积极的角色，他们将在2026年开始面临锂资源短缺，尤其是如果存在激烈竞争的情况下。但是如果大多数竞争对手破产，最晚在2028年之前。我们可以以2027年为基准情况。在2027年之后，如果特斯拉不采取积极行动，他们的电池消耗增长率可能会从2027年的50%下降至2028年的42%、2029年的29%和2030年的22%。接下来，我们将讨论特斯拉可以采取的具体措施。

On a related note, I've seen people concerned that Tesla's being out-competed by companies like Ford and GM, which seem to be on a lithium-sourcing bonanza. Here's my view on that.

在相关的问题上，我见过人们担心特斯拉正在面临像福特和通用这样的公司的竞争，这些公司似乎正在进行锂资源的大爆发。我对此有自己的看法。

Tesla tends to sign with the largest lithium producers in the world, but just doesn't advertise it. Tesla's never shared much about their lithium supply because there was no reason to, and so its business as usual. That is, the absence of information isn't necessarily a cause for concern. In fact, the argument could be flipped on its head. It could be that GM and Ford investors are concerned about competition from Tesla, and so GM and Ford are making announcements about locking in lithium supply to put investors at ease.

特斯拉倾向于与全球最大的锂矿生产商签约，但并不宣传。特斯拉从未在多大程度上分享关于其锂供应的信息，因为没有理由这么做，所以一切照常进行。换句话说，信息的缺失不一定是一个令人担忧的原因。事实上，可以将这个论点扭转过来。可能是通用汽车和福特的投资者担心特斯拉的竞争，因此通用汽车和福特正在宣布锁定锂的供应，以安抚投资者。

I'm not saying that is the case, but rather, we don't know the minds of the people involved and their strategy. And because we don't know, it becomes an exercise and imagination. Getting back on track, if Tesla's 50% growth rate is in jeopardy later in the decade and the primary cause is a shortage of mind-lithium, what can they do about it?

我并不是说情况就是这样的，而是说我们并不了解相关人员的心态和策略。正因为我们不了解，所以这只是一种想象的练习。回到正题，如果特斯拉在未来几年的50%增长率受到威胁，而主要原因是锂矿石短缺，那么他们能采取什么措施呢？

If Tesla took a more active role in the lithium mining industry now, with lead times of 4-7 years for a new mining project, there's still an opportunity to make an impact by the end of the decade. I'd be surprised if they could bring enough new mind-lithium supply online to fully cover the supply gap, but even an increase of 10% would be enough for another 2 million vehicles per year by 2030. But in my view, even if they weren't successful at increasing the supply of mind-lithium, it would still be worth their time to become more active in the industry.

如果特斯拉现在在锂矿业中扮演更积极的角色，在新的采矿项目需要4-7年的准备时间，到本十年结束时他们仍有机会产生影响。如果他们能够使足够数量的新矿石-锂供应投入使用以完全填补供应缺口，我会感到惊讶，但即使增加10%，到2030年每年可再生产200万辆车也足够了。但在我看来，即使他们在提高锂矿石供应方面不成功，对他们来说参与这个行业的努力仍然是值得的。

Why? First, as I said earlier, Tesla's paying large amounts to both lithium miners and refiners, not four years from now, but today. Those margin costs could be running over a billion dollars per year. Furthermore, the better the battery industry gets at manufacturing batteries, the greater the proportional cost of the raw materials. That is, the best way to reduce the cost of lithium-ion batteries is now to reduce the materials bill. And the best way to do that is to cut out the third-party margins. The second reason it would be worth Tesla's time to become more active in lithium mining is that the industry doesn't always share Tesla's goals. Tesla wants as much lithium as possible at the lowest cost to accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. Lithium miners are looking to maximize profits and minimize risk because lithium mining is a capital-intensive risky business. That means what's best for miners is to increase lithium supply, but not so much that it exceeds demand and creates thin or non-existent margins.

为什么呢？首先，正如我之前所说，特斯拉如今就已经向锂矿工和提炼者支付巨额费用，而不是在四年后。这些成本可能每年超过十亿美元。此外，随着电池行业在制造电池方面变得更加高效，原材料的成本比例也会增加。也就是说，降低锂离子电池成本的最佳方法现在是减少原材料费用。而削减第三方的利润空间是实现这一目标的最佳途径。第二个原因是，特斯拉应该更积极参与锂矿业的原因在于，这个行业并不总是与特斯拉的目标一致。特斯拉希望以尽可能低的成本获取尽可能多的锂，以加快向可持续能源的转变。而锂矿工则希望最大化利润并尽量减少风险，因为锂采矿是一项投资密集、风险高的业务。这意味着对于矿工来说，最好的情况是增加锂供应，但不要过量以至于导致薄利或不存在的利润空间。

So overall, if Tesla wants to be the master of their own destiny, rather than be held captive by third parties, and one form or another, they may need to take a more active role in lithium mining. The logic here is the same logic that Tesla used for vertically integrating into battery cell manufacturing, cathode production, and lithium refining. Vertical integration can accelerate the speed that they scale, reduce margins paid to third parties, and de-risk the business. To be clear, I'm not suggesting Tesla necessarily has to vertically integrate into mining, but that they may need to take the supplier relationship one step further to form partnerships.

总的来说，如果特斯拉想成为自己命运的主宰，而不是受制于第三方，他们可能需要在锂矿开采方面发挥更积极的作用，不管以何种形式。这里的逻辑与特斯拉在电池电芯制造、正极材料生产和锂提纯方面垂直整合的逻辑是相同的。垂直整合可以加速扩大规模的速度，减少向第三方支付的利润，并降低业务的风险。明确一点，我并不是在暗示特斯拉必须要垂直整合采矿业务，而是他们可能需要进一步发展供应商关系，建立合作伙伴关系。

On that note, if Tesla does decide to take a more active role in lithium mining, what are their options? First, they can finance or partner on mining projects that might be struggling for capital, or need money to accelerate development or increase production. This is the best option in my view because it allows Tesla to keep some distance from some of the negative sentiment around mining. Second, Tesla could buy one of the major mining companies. Besides hitting the accelerator on the speed of extraction, Tesla could let the lithium contracts of their competitors expire, and redirect that lithium supply to themselves. That is, a buyout would be the nuclear option, and Tesla might come under fire for being monopolistic. Third, and finally, Tesla could become a miner themselves by buying, exploring for, and or developing mines. This is the worst option in my view because it carries the most technical and reputational risk without much additional benefit.

在这方面，如果特斯拉决定在锂矿开采中扮演更积极的角色，他们有哪些选择？首先，他们可以为可能资金紧缺、需要加速开发或增加产能的采矿项目提供融资或合作伙伴。在我看来，这是最好的选择，因为它让特斯拉能够保持与矿业周围某些负面情绪的一定距离。其次，特斯拉可以收购其中一家主要采矿公司。除了加速提取速度外，特斯拉还可以让竞争对手的锂合同到期，并将这些锂供应转向自己。也就是说，收购将是一种“核选项”，而特斯拉可能因垄断而受到批评。第三，最后，特斯拉可以通过购买、探索和/或开发矿山来成为采矿商。在我看来，这是最糟糕的选择，因为它带来了最大的技术和声誉风险，而几乎没有额外的好处。

If there's so many reasons for Tesla to get into lithium mining, and so many ways to structure that, the question then becomes, why is Tesla said that they'll only get into lithium mining if they have to? I see five reasons, which aren't mutually exclusive.

如果有这么多原因让特斯拉参与锂矿开采，并且有很多不同的结构方式，那么问题就是，为什么特斯拉说他们只会在必要时参与锂矿开采？我看到有五个原因，它们并不互斥。

First, because lithium mining creates a lot of social and environmental headaches, and Tesla's trying to avoid associating themselves with those issues. Second, on more than one occasion, Ford's CEO Jim Farley has said that their securing lithium supply three years in advance. By this, I'm assuming he means confirming lithium production volumes and costs and signing the contracts. It could be that Tesla's looking three years down the road at lithium supply, and it still looks pretty good up until 2026. That is, a shortage of mined lithium hasn't hit their radar yet, and it's still a theoretical risk.

首先，由于锂采矿会带来许多社会和环境问题，特斯拉试图避免与这些问题联系在一起。其次，福特汽车的首席执行官吉姆·法利在多个场合表示他们提前三年确保锂供应。我理解这意味着确认锂产量和成本，并签订合同。特斯拉可能在未来三年内关注到锂供应情况，直到2026年为止，看起来仍然是很好的。也就是说，目前为止，他们的雷达还没有捕捉到采矿锂的短缺问题，而这只是一个理论上的风险。

Third, it could be that Tesla intends to buy a mining company, and they're downplaying mining because they don't want to inflate the price of lithium mining stocks before making a purchase. Fourth, as Elon said, it could be that they're avoiding vertically integrating into mining, because vertical integration diverts resources. That is, building or running a lithium mine could slow Tesla down on other projects like building vehicle factories. Fifth, and finally, it could be that Elon is being over-optimistic about lithium mining because it doesn't appear to be a technical challenge. That is, he may be underestimating the array of other non-technical challenges involved in lithium mining.

第三，特斯拉可能打算收购一家采矿公司，他们不想在购买之前抬高锂矿业股票的价格，因此对采矿问题进行了淡化。第四，正如埃隆所说，他们可能避免垂直整合到采矿业，因为这会分散资源。也就是说，建设或经营锂矿可能会影响特斯拉在其他项目上的进展，比如建设车辆工厂。第五，最后，埃隆可能对锂矿业过于乐观，因为他认为它并没有技术上的挑战。也就是说，他可能低估了涉及锂矿业的其他非技术挑战的种类。

With all that said, despite all the reasons Tesla may not be considering or may not want to get into lithium mining, I think they eventually will. That's because, although Elon tends to be over-optimistic, he's usually good at course correcting when reality makes itself apparent. If Tesla's locking down lithium supply three years into the future, like most companies are, and the assumptions in this video are correct, we might expect more aggressive action from Tesla in the next few years.

尽管有以上所提的理由，特斯拉可能不会考虑或不想参与锂矿开采，但我认为他们最终会这样做。这是因为，尽管埃隆（·马斯克）经常过于乐观，但当现实变得明显时，他往往能够纠正方向。如果特斯拉像大多数公司一样在未来三年锁定了锂供应，并且这个视频中的假设是正确的，我们可能会在接下来的几年里看到特斯拉采取更加积极的行动。

Before I close out the video, it's worth addressing the dozens of other potential battery chemistries beyond lithium and sodium ion. There are a lot of promising technologies out there such as vanadium flow batteries and liquid metal batteries. However, in my view, they won't scale quickly enough to make a big impact by the end of the decade. Sodium ion batteries are evidence of that. They're ready for commercialization, comparatively easy to scale, and the materials are abundant, but even with all those things in their favor, they're unlikely to take more than a third of the market by the end of the decade, and likely much less.

在我结束这段视频之前，值得讨论的是除了锂离子和钠离子之外，还有几十种其他可能的电池化学体系。有很多有前途的技术，比如钒流电池和金属液流电池。然而，在我的看法中，它们无法迅速扩展，无法在这十年结束之前产生巨大的影响。钠离子电池就是这个问题的例证。它们已经准备好投入商业化，相对容易扩展，材料也很丰富，但即便有这些优势，它们也不太可能在这十年结束之前占据市场的超过三分之一，很可能远远小于这个比例。

Beyond that, every battery chemistry has strengths and weaknesses. The implication of that is that each chemistry has specs and economics that lend those chemistries to specific use cases. Those use cases might have no overlap with lithium or sodium ion batteries, or the use case could be so narrow that the market of the chemistry is 5 to 10% of the total battery market.

此外，每种电池化学反应都有其优点和缺点。由此而引出的意义是，每种化学反应都有其特定用例所需要的规格和经济因素。这些用例可能与锂离子电池或钠离子电池完全不重叠，或者该用例可能如此狭窄，以至于该化学反应的市场仅占总电池市场的5到10%。

Now that we've covered the major sections of the global lithium supply chain video, next month I'll release the full video that contains about 15 minutes of extra content at the beginning and end of the video. The introduction contains a too long didn't watch that provides a quick summary of the video. That's useful if you're looking to share the key themes of the video with someone that may not have time to watch the full video. If that piques their interest, the video is fully time stamped if they want to explore further. The summary reiterates the key points of the video as well as addresses the frequently made but poor comparison between lithium shortages and the peak oil hysteria from 15 years ago.

现在，我们已经涵盖了全球锂供应链视频的主要部分，下个月我将发布完整视频，其中包含大约15分钟的额外内容，视频的开始和结尾。引言包含了一个“太长没看”概述视频的快速摘要。如果您希望与没有时间观看完整视频的人分享视频的关键主题，这是很有用的。如果他们对此感兴趣，视频还提供了完整的时间戳，以供进一步探索。摘要重申了视频的关键要点，并解决了频繁提出但不准确的锂短缺与15年前石油峰值恐慌之间的比较。

That's all for today. As I said at the beginning of the video, if you can, toss a coin to your witcher. The information I've provided today is, to my knowledge, the most comprehensive video on lithium supply out there. Other reports that are available on the market can cost thousands of dollars, and by comparison, if this video does well, I expect it to make less than a thousand dollars from YouTube ad revenues. It's the supporters who contribute directly that make the channel possible. On that note, a special thanks to Bert Laman for your generous support of the channel, my YouTube members, ex-subscribers, and all the patrons listed in the credits. I appreciate all your support, and thanks for tuning in.

今天就到这里吧。就像我在视频一开始所说的，如果你愿意的话，请投币给你的猎魔人。根据我所知，我今天提供的信息是目前有关锂供应最全面的视频。市面上其他可获得的报告可能要花费数千美元，而与之相比，如果这个视频表现不错，我预计从YouTube广告收入中获得的利润将不到一千美元。正是直接支持者的贡献使得这个频道得以存在。在这一点上，特别感谢Bert Laman对频道的慷慨支持，还有我的YouTube会员、曾经的订阅者以及所有在片尾字幕中列出的资助人。我感谢你们的支持，谢谢你们收看。