Most likely you remember that racial discrimination lawsuit against Tesla where the first time around the jury awarded the plaintiff $137 million in damages. Then a judge later ruled that that was excessive. It was then lowered to $15 million, but the plaintiff rejected that offer. And now today we have a federal judge declining to order a third trial in this same lawsuit. Acting claims by the former factory worker that the company's lawyers engaged in misconduct. In a written order, the judge upheld a $3.2 million verdict that a jury awarded to OND as in April.
I'm not sure what type of legal action Mr. Diaz and his lawyers can take from this point forward, but good for now.
我不确定迪亚斯先生和他的律师们从现在开始可以采取什么类型的法律行动,不过目前看来还不错。
I really would like some of your input on what Elon said on X. He said, talking of the rear wheel drive Model Y, it performs well on snow and ice with all season or winter tires. All wheel drive is nice to have, but not required for winter driving. I know some of you are out there in snowy climates like myself where the snow can be a little bit more than a dusting. In those environments, let me know what you guys think of a rear wheel drive vehicle if you have any experience.
There was a trending post on Reddit of a user sharing their Tesla insurance screenshot saying that it's now accounting for excessive speeding over 85 miles per hour. It'll dock your safety score. Honestly though, as far as I can tell, this has been around for the last 6 months or so since Tesla rolled out, the safety score 2.0. Maybe some of you guys can add more color, perhaps there are some regional timing differences out there when it comes to Tesla insurance and what it is taking into consideration for your safety score. I just wanted to clarify that speeding factor has been one now for a few months.
This article is also making its rounds and if you pay any attention to the mining or the mineral industry, you'll always hear people talking about these huge upcoming copper shortages, how we all need to be investing in the copper industry, but it's tough to tell if it's people trying to pump their investments or if there's really something going on here. And what do you know? If you scroll down on the article you will see disclaimer this is a paid advertisement. Either way, they said for Tesla to reach their production targets, they would need roughly 9% of the world's copper production per year. This Reuters article said copper has been seen as a green energy transition play in part because of the wiring needed for EVs. They can use as much as 80 kg, 176 pounds of copper, 4 times the amount used in a typical combustion vehicle. Goldman Sachs came out with a report saying EVs accounted for 2 thirds of the global demand growth in copper last year. Notice how this is not 2 thirds of the global demand but 2 thirds of the demand growth. But they also say this EVs and battery makers have found ways to cut weight and cost that means less copper needed per vehicle.
Speaking of those innovations, Tesla and Elon just told us they're going to be moving from 12 volts to 48 volts that should allow for smaller wires and thus less copper. Elon said first approximation, that means we need only about 1 quarter as much copper in the car as would be needed for a 12 volt battery so that's a big deal because people often worry about whether there is enough copper. Elon said yes, there is. This article from Mining.com said some Tesla cars use up to 82 kg of copper or about 180 pounds. And here's where that first article that was trending maybe got its data from Mining.com for Tesla to hit its goal of 20 million cars per year. Doing the math, that would be about 9% of global production if the levels stayed where they were in 2022. You would take this 1.8 million tons times roughly 2200 to go from tons to pounds. That would give you 4 billion pounds of copper then doing the math across 20 million vehicles. That's assuming about 200 pounds of copper per vehicle. But if Tesla moves to 48 volts, those figures could be cut by 75%. If over the coming years Tesla's copper predictions are correct about how much they can save, they would save roughly 1.3 million tons or about 10 billion dollars worth of copper at the prices where they were over the summer.
I've said it before on the channel but Tesla is going to be the 1000 cuts that is ultimately the death of big parts of the traditional auto industry. It's all of the little tiny innovations that always go over looks that over time compound and add up. I'm not going to act like I'm an expert on the copper industry and there certainly may be temporary shortages along the way but with Tesla moving to 48 volts potentially saving 75% of the copper needs and in turn billions of dollars, I'm not sure this is something we need to be worrying about or throwing our life savings into.
I feel like I have to clarify, I wasn't at all trying to hint at or say I think investing in copper is a bad financial decision. Why is it that Tesla's demand has been so soft? Is it simply that they've over produced and they can't cut prices enough because there's just no pent up demand for EVs. Why is it that those delivery numbers have so much excess inventory right now? How long is it going to take for that to be absorbed? There it is again, this soft demand and major excess inventory. Are they just parroting these same talking points without even looking at the data or trying to figure out what's really going on?
If you've been keeping up with the videos you've heard me already talk about this and address it but still it's like, come on now. You look at 1.8 million what I believe is going to be delivered for the year. That's a super strong number relative to the environment. I think margins trough and Phil's talked about that as well. Q4, I think you have Cybertruck that starts production or Refresher Model 3 and I think in China they actually start to gain more share. That's why in our view, this is more of what I've used to pause into the next phase of the Tesla growth story which is why we've been telling our investors here, you continue to own this name.
How did they go from not being able, a year ago, not being able to meet demand to the situation where they are right now? What happened? Demand definitely soft. We've seen that in China in terms of central price where that's happened in China but I believe the poker move of cut in prices, that was the right thing. I think we've seen it in the stock in terms of stimulating demand for Tesla but no doubt, they are definitely going through a transition in terms of what we're seeing with demand in the US globally. But if you look at scale and where they could get to production, we're going to be looking at next year or two or coming as going to be 2.5 million, ultimately in the 3 million, what they're going to see from a delivery as well as a production. I think this is just, in my opinion, this is just what I'll call the middle phases of the next phase of the Tesla growth story taking place.
Can't lie, I was disappointed with Dan's answer. No mention of production shutdowns for upgrades. No mention of any of Tesla's inventory on ships to Europe. No mention of days of supply actually contextualizing any of these excess inventory numbers. I wonder though about competing with BYD. I mean, they have more models, they update them more quickly, they have more colors. It's already, Chinese models are like some of the top selling vehicles in Europe already. They also have, what's the smaller one, the four letters. It's not just BYD which is formidable but there's other Chinese automakers as well. When you read about these, these are not like low cost cheap businesses. BYD is like the Japan of the 2020s in terms of the impact that Japanese automakers had on the market back then. So you do wonder if Tesla, even having an advantage to the big three, how does it not get undercut? And if they keep the Chinese cars out of this market, maybe it'll be fine, but how does it not get undercut?
There's a reason I've been trying to prepare everybody here for the narrative that BYD is somehow bigger, better and better than Tesla because they're now selling more full BEVs or about to maybe as soon as Q4. For those who like the data of why I'm saying these things, here was a great chart shared by James Cat on X. What we have here are rankings of any V model sales volume by price range for August 2023. Top left starts most affordable price range, 0 to 100,000 RMB and then goes up all the way to over 500,000 RMB+. For now, just look at the red bars, that's BYD's data and this is going to be in thousands of units.
Most of their sales are coming below 200,000 RMB. Compare that to Tesla, the purple bars, Tesla has all of their sales volume coming over 200,000 RMB. Doing some rough math, it's only about 15% of BYD sales that are coming in the same price range that Tesla is actually playing in. Now yes, I'm aware as you get closer to the high end of this category and the low end of this one, there's a little bit of crossover there but I think you get the picture. Not only does comparing Tesla to BYD come with its own inherent flaws but more importantly, it's not Tesla vs BYD, it's these two against the ice makers.
In a software update, there's a new feature that has to do with location sharing now and icon will appear at the top of your touchscreen whenever an app requests your vehicle's live location data. So if you'd like to check in on your family members whereabouts now, they'll be notified of you doing so. A guy on Reddit said he likes to track his wife when she's going through a drive-through so that remotely he can play the fart sound when she's at the window. Had to pass that one along.
We did get a press release from Pepsi last week that I don't think got the coverage that it should have. Pepsi said their Tesla semis run two different routes, long haul routes that transport between 250 and 520 miles per run and with a gross vehicle weight plus load up to 82,000 pounds and 18 different delivery routes where the trucks cover less than 75 miles per day hauling and diminishing load that leaves nearly full and lightens throughout the day as deliveries are made. Pepsi said about the run on less event after two weeks, the semis have accumulated a total of 19,122 miles, approximately 65% of those miles were loaded to a gross vehicle weight plus load of over 70,000 pounds or roughly 85% of the max capacity. This 21 Tesla semi fleet for Pepsi does operate 24 hours a day. One of Pepsi's female drivers who initially volunteered to drive the Tesla semi first said she got a lot of questions about the Tesla semi when she started driving it. Some people thought it was all too good to be true, but it's been fun to say it's all electric can haul our regular shipments of beverages and feels great to drive. So roughly 65% of all the Tesla semi miles in the first two weeks of the run on less event were actually loaded to about 85% of the trucks capacity.
In a Ford press release, they just told us they made a new offer to the UAW. Ford saying it's the seventh offer now that they've made and this one would put UAW employees among the top 25% of all US jobs hourly and salary. They said while Ford remains open to the possibility of working with a UAW on future battery plants in the US, these are multi-billion dollar investments and must operate at competitive and sustainable levels. The future employees at these operations can choose to be union represented and enter into the collective bargaining process. In this new offer, Ford is offering temporary workers a 26% raise and for full time workers they just said more than 20% they offered before.
At the same time we have GM setting up a line of credit for $6 billion which yes, you could take as a sign that they're expecting the strike to drag on. GM wants the 364 day revolving credit line to maintain operational flexibility. At the end of quarter two, GM's total auto liquidity stood around $38.9 billion. Financially this really is more of a preemptive move by GM. That's not like they need these funds right now. However, if they thought they were going to reach a deal with the UAW sometime soon, I doubt they would be doing something like this.
Looking at US light vehicle sales for quarter three and near to date, I just want to focus on the nine month percentage change compared to 2022. Highlighting a few of the brands that with an overall expanding recovering auto market are still actually in the red. Lincoln down 5.5% looking at the next block of brands, all of these brands are actually positive. And two small volume players, Alpha Romeo down 22.7% and Fiat down 46%. Not a small player though, Jeep down 9.5%, Ram down 2.5, Delantis down 1.3% and then Bentley down 2%.
For Ford's Q3 sales, we'll just focus on their EV numbers. It was up 14.8% on best ever sales of 20.9000 EVs. Much of that gain coming from Mach E sales up 42.5% for the quarter.
In September, Mach E sales hit 5,872, a new record and a year over year gain of 153%. Still only about half of that 10,000 unit per month number I'm looking for.
Ford looking at their Q3 sales will just focus on the Mach E, they did 14.8000 this quarter, up 42.5% compared to the same quarter last year. But the F-150 Lightning only sold 3.5000 down about 45% from last year.
And yes, these are US only sales, but looking year to date, the Mach E has done 28.8000 sales in line with what it did last year. And despite the slower quarter for the F-150 Lightning, year to date is still up about 40% compared to last year.
The real question becomes, are Ford's lower F-150 Lightning sales due to lower demand? Or they just have not yet ramped up production? Personally, I still think it's too early to tell we might need another quarter or two to really figure that out.
For what it's worth, Governor Gretchen Whitmer just said that she thinks Ford's battery facility with CATL will proceed whenever Ford strikes a deal with the UAW.
Are you seeing any drop off in average transaction prices? And I'm not looking for a specific number, but you have a high average transaction price on well over 80,000 per vehicle. And we know that we're going into price cutting mode within the EV industry. Are you noticing any erosion?
We've maintained our pricing and the demand for the products is very strong, so we've been able to keep that consistent with what we've had in the past.
我们已经保持了我们的定价,产品的需求非常强劲,因此我们能够保持与过去一样的一致性。
You've got an average loss of almost $33,000 per vehicle. And you saw the journal article yesterday and people are saying, well, when are you going to be profitable per vehicle? You've already said by the end of next year, are you seeing acceleration in the end of the day and bringing down those costs?
Yeah, so this is our Q2 results. We had a loss of about an interest of just over $30,000 per vehicle. That is improving quarter-of-reporter, so we're seeing significant progress. And what we're going to see as we go forward is a very clear staircase or a set of steps that get us to a profitability of business and of course that's the objective. And the ramp of our production plant is really foundational and key for that.
I somehow missed this one last week, but Nicola is now saying they're going to start deliveries of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles in a few weeks. Nicola has 223 non-binding orders from 23 customers, including J.B. Hunt and AJR trucking.
Right now, at their manufacturing facility, they said they're producing one hydrogen truck per day. The trucks will have a range of around 500 miles, but in testing, they've gone upwards of 580. The fuel cell trucks hold 70 kilograms of hydrogen and Nicola is rolling out fueling stations across North America with its high La Brandt. Fuel tanks capable of holding 1000 kilograms of hydrogen can fuel about 18 trucks in a 24-hour period. I just have to say it, this is going to be a very interesting rollout to watch.
Polestar just announced a new CTO, Lutz Stiegler who came from sister company Volvo. That's where he spent the last 10 years and his role was head of electric propulsion responsible for product development for all software and hardware used in Volvo's powertrains.
Last week Kia is hosting a one day event they're calling EV Day on October 12th. They'll present a posse of electric vehicles, including three small and medium sized EVs. And they said this is something they'll do annually to show off some of their technology.
Drive Tesla Canada has reported that Tesla has switched back and they will resume sending cars from Fremont to Canada instead of only getting them from Giga Shanghai. So far, this only appears to impact the Model 3, not the Model Y. I should note they're getting this data from some listings and they don't specifically say that cars are made in Fremont but Drive Tesla confirmed with a source that Model 3 cars are already in transit to Canada from Fremont. They also saw some existing inventory vehicles that are listed as Arriving Soon, starting with the VIN 5YJ indicating production in Fremont.
Drive Tesla Canada报道称,特斯拉已经改变策略,他们将恢复从弗里蒙特向加拿大发送汽车,而不仅依靠来自上海超级工厂的汽车。到目前为止,这似乎只影响Model 3,而不是Model Y。我应该指出,他们获取这些数据是通过一些汽车列表,他们并没有明确说明汽车是在弗里蒙特制造的,但Drive Tesla已经与一位消息人士证实,Model 3汽车已经从弗里蒙特运往加拿大。他们还看到一些现有库存车辆被列为即将到达,VIN代码以5YJ开头,表明它们是在弗里蒙特生产的。
My guess is this has something to do with the Model 3 Plus, given that right now this only impacts the Model 3, maybe Giga Shanghai only now has capacity for the Model 3 Plus, meaning they're not shipping the old version to Canada anymore. Which would of course force Tesla to ship the older Model 3 to Canada from Fremont.
It's been a while since we've talked about this one but we have John Vo, former executive from Tesla, he was the global head of manufacturing, set to launch his new flagship product, part of his company Blue Innovations Group, Saturday December 16th in St. Pete. The public launch event will be the first time people actually see the product where it doesn't look like an engineering contraption.
VR30 is the first electric 30 foot day cruiser designed and made in Florida, outfitted with a 221kWh battery pack that should give it a run time around 8 hours.