Hey everybody Rob Maer here and today we've got a variety of updates on Tesla's Model Y and Cyber Truck. We've also got a lot of new insights on the Semi and a few other items as well.
Looking at the stock, we're pretty much where we left off on Monday morning after the delivery report. So Tesla down 2% today after ending up in the green yesterday, closing today at $246.53. The NASDAQ though down 1.9% today. So pretty good performance for Tesla on top of a pretty good performance yesterday, following the production and delivery report.
So nice to see that, I think a little bit surprising given that consensus expectations were quite a bit higher. But as we had talked about, actual expectations seemed lower, so I think we're seeing a bit of that. And then there was the possibility too that Tesla sang that they'll do around 1.8 million deliveries this year. And noting that guidance is unchanged, that could be helping with expectations for Q4, which is ultimately going to be more important. And there are things stuck forward to in Q4 with Highland and of course, Cyber Truck. We had also talked about the phrasing in the release of around 1.8 million vehicles for 2023 rather than something like above 1.8 million.
But I have now had a chance to go back and look at the Q4, Q1 and Q2 earnings reports. And it's actually phrased the same way in all of those around 1.8 million. So that's nice to see and stuff like that is worth paying attention to. But because it stayed consistent, it's not something that I view as a red flag.
All right, let's get into the updates on the Model Y as we had talked about briefly in the delivery episode. Tesla did update the Model Y in China pretty quietly, but they brought over some of the changes from the updated Model 3, including a new look for the dash, which includes the ambient lighting. I'm not sure if that is included in the back seats yet or not, but no rear screen. The steering wheel still has stocks, etc. So not all the changes from the Highland Model 3, especially for the exterior, though Tesla has updated the cap for the aero wheels from silver, now to black.
好的,让我们来谈谈Model Y的更新情况,正如我们在交付一集中简要提到的。特斯拉在中国对Model Y进行了非常低调的更新,但他们引入了一些来自更新后的Model 3的变化,包括仪表盘的新外观,其中包括环境照明。我不确定后座是否已经包括在内,但没有后置屏幕。方向盘上仍然有各种功能,等等。因此,并非来自Highland Model 3的所有改变,尤其是外观方面,尽管特斯拉已将空气动力学车轮的顶盖从银色更新为黑色。
There are also some performance improvements. As we can see from the Wayback machine here, the range on the all-wheel drive version has increased by about 4% up to 688 kilometers CLTC for the opening price point real-wheel drive version that range increased by about 1.5%. For that vehicle, the zero to 60 time also improved by a second from 6.9 seconds to 5.9 seconds, and pricing for all versions has stayed the same. So some pretty nice updates all around, but hopefully nothing major enough to really significantly impact production.
Now right after this change, we also got a change for the Model Y in the United States. Tesla has added a new trim. This is the rear wheel drive Model Y, which takes over the vacant opening price point slot that was left vacant from the removal of the 4680 all-wheel drive Model Y about a month ago. So this new rear wheel drive version, this starts just below $44,000. It is $3,750 cheaper than that all-wheel drive version was previously, but obviously without the benefit of all-wheel drive. Also a little bit less range.
Tesla estimates the range at 260 miles for this version versus 279 on that 4680 version. The max speed is the same at 135 miles per hour, but the acceleration a bit worse at 6.6 seconds for 0 to 60 versus 5.0 seconds on the old 4680 all-wheel drive version. So this works the Model Y a little bit further down the market. We've actually seen Tesla occupy this space before, actually even lower. They briefly had a rear wheel drive version introduced in early 2021. That was even a couple thousand dollars cheaper, actually got below $40,000 briefly, but overall that trim was only available for a couple of months.
So since the removal of the 4680 Model Y, not surprising to see another low range version added, Tesla probably had to fill that pretty quickly. This seems to be the answer for that for the time being, and I think given the differences, the pricing makes sense relative to how the lineup was previously priced.
Now obviously one of the questions here is if this is also a 4680 Model Y, to me it doesn't look like that's the case if we look at some of the EPA certification documents. The listed battery voltage and battery energy capacity match exactly with the rear wheel drive Model 3, which is a lithium iron phosphate battery pack, and neither of those numbers match to the long range Model Y. So with the lower range, with the slower 0 to 60, I think all signs are pointing to this being the same LFP pack that is in the rear wheel drive Model 3.
Also from these EPA documents, it looks like Tesla has started the certification process for this almost six months ago, so this doesn't seem like a knee jerk reaction, something that has been planned at least for a while, at least in terms of having the option to do something like this.
And then in terms of the tax credit, this vehicle is eligible for the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, similarly to the LFP Model 3. And the likely reason for that is because some of the language in the requirements seem to allow the domestic percentages that need to be hit on the battery to be accomplished at the fleet level rather than on the individual vehicle. Tesla has noted that some eligibility is likely to change next year, so if this vehicle is still around by then, it could be one of those that is at risk for a reduction.
而在税收抵免方面,该车符合7500美元的联邦电动汽车税收抵免,与LFP Model 3类似。可能的原因是,要求中的某些条款似乎允许在车队层面完成电池所需的国内比例,而不是在个别车辆上完成。特斯拉已经指出,明年可能会有一些资格发生改变,所以如果该车到那时还在市面上销售,它可能是那些面临减少风险的车型之一。
As far as the impact on the financials, obviously this is being introduced at a lower price than the previous opening price point, Tesla's been doing a lot of discounting so tough to say the overall impact entirely, but this probably ends up netting out to a lower ASP on the Model Y in general. And then for margins, the impact is a little bit less clear because the previous opening price point, of course, you had 4680s going into those, and that's likely been just overall a significant drain on Tesla's profitability in margins recently. And that drain will continue as the 4680s continue to ramp, it may just not be reflected in the Model Y product line, maybe that shifts over to Cybertruck or wherever else.
So that makes the overall impact pretty convoluted, but if we compare this to the opening price point Model 3 with likely the same battery, this version of the Model Y has a $3750 premium, I'm guessing costs are somewhat similar, so should be a pretty healthy margin, at least relative to the Model 3, but that's also kind of the job of the Model Y is lifting that overall gross margin from where the Model 3 would be by itself, along with things that go without saying like volume, etc. So overall, I think the impact should be just fine, although a lot of moving parts here, it'll make it difficult to gauge.
All right, let's move on to the Cybertruck, we've got a few updates here, we talked briefly yesterday about how the Peterson Museum is going to be reportedly auctioning off a low-vin Cybertruck this weekend, I think we're close enough now at this point that no one should really expect a delivery event between now and then, certainly that's not my expectation, when this was originally set up they may have expected to be able to do that, but obviously they can just deliver the vehicle at some point in the future.
Now the other big update, this one's a bit of a spoiler, so fair warning on that, the Cybertruck interior has been filmed, it's unclear how this person got access or the legality of that access, but the video has now been removed from YouTuber set to private rather, easy to find recordings on X if you do want to search for it, but we'll just look at a couple of photos, I'd personally rather leave it as a surprise, but can't really omit it from the coverage now that it's out there, so the display here, some pretty interesting stuff, very cyber-themed, seems to have some terrain displayed here, we can also see that this vehicle had an 84% state of charge, but no indication on miles, and we can see the menu bar for various applications appears to be on the left side, not sure if that would be configurable, but that would be different from the bottom row that Tesla vehicles have today, then a few other various shots of the interior, a lot of stuff that we have seen by now, but with a new perspective, and also gives us a pretty good sense of how that rear window feels, and the rear view mirror has also been a question, whether that is digital, or just a standard mirror, I'm not sure this lets us say conclusively, my guess is still digital based on the tonneau cover, but still seems to be a topic of debate after this, though I think most people also lean in that direction.
Moving on from the interior, we've got another nice update from Joe Tegmeyer spotted what appears to be a crash-tested Cybertruck at Gigataxis, we've seen similar instances a couple of times now, but gives us a pretty good look at the front crumple zone, whereas before I think we had mainly seen some rollover type of testing. Very curious to get those results someday when they are published, and also the conclusion of Tesla's April Fool's Day crash test teaser video. Couple of the quick updates on the Cybertruck, there's been a new rap spotted, this one's got the Cybertruck logo graffiti on the side, and perhaps more interestingly, something going on on the top here, looks like maybe an antenna, maybe a Starlink receiver, pretty tough to tell for sure, but would be interesting if that were the case, though not something I would expect Tesla or SpaceX to all of a sudden start offering, and Elon has talked about that in the past, but nevertheless, still fun to see if that is the case. And then finally on Cybertruck, there has been a sighting of Cybertruck at Starbase, which is kind of fun to see, some really nice quality photos here from Shondor de Anna X, and definitely a place where the Cybertruck looks and feels like home fits the aesthetic perfectly.
继续谈论内饰后,我们从乔·泰格迈尔那里得到了另一个好消息,他在Gigataxis看到了一辆似乎经过碰撞测试的Cybertruck。我们之前已经见过几次类似的情况,但这次我们可以很好地看到前防撞区,之前我们主要只看到了一些翻车测试。当这些结果被公布的时候,我非常好奇。而且还期待特斯拉愚人节撞车测试预告视频的结论。关于Cybertruck的其他一些快讯,有人发现了一种新的包装,侧面上有Cybertruck的标志性涂鸦,更有趣的是,在顶部似乎还有些动作,看起来像是天线,可能是Starlink接收器,但很难确定,如果是这样的话,那将非常有趣,尽管不是我对特斯拉或SpaceX突然提供的期望,埃隆之前也谈论过这个问题,但仍然很有趣看到是否属实。最后,关于Cybertruck,有人在Starbase看到了Cybertruck,非常有趣,Shondor de Anna X提供了一些质量上乘的照片,这个地方确实是Cybertruck看起来和感觉都像家的地方,完美符合美学。
Next up, we've got some really great insights on the Tesla Semi, which appeared on an episode of Jay Leno's Garage about 40 minutes long, primarily with the head of the Semi program Dan Priestley, but Franz von Holzhausen also attending there for a bit. Definitely just go watch the full video, it's a fun one, the link for that is in the description, but we'll hit the main interesting points here. On production Dan said they've so far made about 60 to 70 vehicles, which I think tracks with what we would have estimated at this point, as we know pricing details that were once on the Semi page, those of long since been removed, he said price is not released but comparable or competitive with diesel trucks, and particularly to other EV trucks he mentioned, but said that in the first three years of use, fuel savings would be nearly $200,000, not even considering other maintenance, so depending on pricing, the payback period here could be as short as two to three years, which will mean crazy demand once Tesla starts ramping production. Dan said a number of times that they're not trying to be a small player here, but a major player in the market. As for performance, Dan mentioned that they have 1500 horsepower available to them, but that that is tailored to customer needs to provide better efficiency and longevity for the Semi. And on charging, he mentioned that you can recover about 70% state of charge in about 30 minutes. So this gives us a little bit more insight into what we've been talking about with the Semi run on less data, and Pepsi's kind of strange comments about charging at 750 kilowatts, which does seem to be the case, but there should be much more capacity based on this comment. Like we had suspected the run on less data looks like they're recovering about 45% or so in half an hour. So that's a pretty significant difference and hopefully over time Tesla will start to leverage that.
Leno also asked about Regen if that was more powerful than in other Tesla vehicles, and they said yes, because there is so much mass with the Tesla Semi, it makes it much more powerful, not sure in terms of percentages, but obviously the Semi is equipped to handle that. And then pretty interestingly on breaking Dan in his own words said that the Tesla Semi is using brake by wire. There seems to be some debate on what exactly constitutes brake by wire. I'm not expert in that subject, but his exact words were quote, we brought over a brake system that's actually commonly used in Europe. So it's break by wire. So it's still pneumatic actuated, but it's electrically commanded in its primary mode. And so it gives us much better fidelity and control over the breaking of the vehicle. And so it results in much smoother braking than in traditional North American systems, and quote. So I'll leave it to the comments to provide a little more context on that. But either way, nice to hear a little bit more about that system. And Jay Leno was very effusive in his praise of just how smooth the vehicle was throughout the drive, including during braking with a trailer, actually pulling a Tesla Semi on it.
A couple other details Dan did mention that eventually Tesla will do a sleeper cab as the charging network is expanded right now. Doesn't make a lot of sense to do that, but someday they will.
And he also mentioned that the turning radius on the semi is actually about the same as a Model 3 or Model Y and actually mentioned that a couple of times.
他还提到,半挂车的转弯半径实际上与Model 3或Model Y大致相同,并多次强调了这一点。
He also mentioned a few times how important it was for Tesla and the design of this vehicle to make sure that it could be easily dropped in to another fleet. So very big focus from them on compatibility mentioned that being compatible with all trailers was a top priority for them. And other things like that just to make sure it's as easy to implement a Tesla semi as possible. Again, the link for that is in the description. Definitely would check that out.
Alright, next we've got a quick update from Bloomberg Law on the status of the lawsuit, which is resulting in possibly the return of some funds from the Tesla board to Tesla at the company. Most recently we had talked about the lawyers request for $230 million in legal fees for a part of the settlement Tesla and a new court document has argued against that saying that it is demonstrably unreasonable and roughly four times more than what should be earned. Also interesting in terms of the impact that this may eventually have in terms of Tesla's financials. A part of this did say that Tesla is saying that regardless of the cost to the directors, the agreement, a settlement agreement, only worth about $295 million to Tesla. So that's probably the ballpark of what we would expect to eventually show up in the financial statements. But I'm not exactly clear on how that would be reflected.
Alright, last few things here. We've got a couple updates on other EV trucks. So first the F one 50 lightning. The Detroit free press is reporting that dealer stock orders, so not orders that already had customers paired with them, but orders from dealers for inventory have been canceled over the last few days and Ford apparently confirmed this with the Detroit free press stating additional quality checks as the reason in a statement they said as a result, we have canceled some dealer stock orders not submitted as pre sold for model year 2023 and quote our manufacturing team is critical to our quality efforts because they are the last line of offense for delivery to our customers. We've identified a couple of additional areas where we believe additional checks are necessary as we ramp up production and quote also on the lightning forward has announced a new trim.
This is called the F one 50 lightning flash and they're saying it's a new tech forward model starting around $70,000. Overall, doesn't seem like anything to major.
Then we've also got a couple updates on Rivian. They have also announced their Q3 delivery and production numbers. They produce 16,300 vehicles in the quarter delivered just over 15,500, which was apparently pretty well ahead of analyst consensus expectations at somewhere around 14,000. They also reiterated their on track for their previous guidance of 52,000 vehicles produced this year and announced November 7th as the date for their Q3 earnings report.
Lastly, then the International Astronautical Federation or IAF has announced that this Thursday, Elon will be virtually joining to speak at the International Astronautical Congress, so we'll keep an eye out for that. And Elon has also been announced as the individual winner for the 2023 IAF World Space Award, so congratulations to Elon for that.
That are up it up for today though, so as always, thank you for listening, make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications, also find me on X at Tesla podcast, and we'll see you tomorrow for the Wednesday, October 4th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.