Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. So first up today, we mentioned this previously, but this month we have Dash, a new fleet of Tesla Model Wives that will be transporting in Tampa and surrounding areas for $2 per ride. Dash will operate 7am to 11pm Monday through Saturday and noon to 9pm on Sunday. With this service, you can only get picked up at 20 different hubs scattered around downtown, and this is set to go live sometime toward the middle of this month. The Dash app will pair up to 4 passengers to share a trip, and they'll be driven around by drive ambassadors that are downtown guides.
To start, this service will be available in these 7 downtown neighborhoods.
首先,该服务将在这七个市中心社区提供。
Next up, Dash operating with no driver, and may be software serving as the rider's guide. Tesla North America just posted on X if an airbag is deployed, hazard lights will automatically activate and flash faster to improve visibility. Update now rolling out to all US Model 3 and Y as well as SNX vehicles, 2020 and newer. I do think it would be really nice to be able to activate this feature manually, rather than only having it happen if an airbag is deployed, just in case you're in an environment where the typical hazards or for ways may not be enough.
I think most people in the Tesla community are at a point where we all just take these continuous software updates for granted, but the reality is we really should not.
我认为特斯拉社区的大部分人已经习以为常地接受了这些持续的软件更新,但实际上我们不应该这么做。
Just some quick comedy for you today, JP Morgan raised its Tesla stock price target to 135, saying we primarily attribute the continued collapse in Tesla consensus delivery volume, revenue earnings and cash flow to a misextrapolation of earlier trends with a pinch of rational exuberance thrown in. Collapsing delivery volume, they say. Well, looking at this chart from James Stevenson, not sure that's the most astute take I've ever seen. But maybe in this backwards clown world that some people are still living in, that would make some sense.
The Model 3 Highland is now available for sale in Thailand. Two variants available, the rear wheel drive and the dual motor all wheel drive long range. Looking at the Tesla Thailand configurator, they do have enhanced autopilot and full self-driving available for purchase. You may also notice right now there is no estimated delivery date for this vehicle, but step number one complete. Earlier this year, Tesla opened up a flagship store in Bangkok, Thailand and just a few weeks ago we heard the Prime Minister say Tesla may be looking into an EV manufacturing facility, while Microsoft and Google may be looking at data centers.
Volkswagen has just hired an ex-Tesla engineering director, Sanjay Lau to head a new department at the software unit, Cariad. Sanjay most recently worked at Rivian, and now he'll be tasked with developing VW's next gen software platform, not sure they ever really had a first gen. This Cariad unit's output will first be applied to two vehicle projects for Audi and VW, but then form the basis for scaling the software architecture across VW brands. Previously, Sanjay was the vice president of the software platform at Rivian. He worked at Tesla for two years as a director of engineering, and he also spent two years as a director of engineering for Android Auto. You may recall Oliver Bloom ordered a review of Cariad's strategy last year. The director of this Cariad division said the rethink took six weeks of intensive workshops, sometimes emotional. And just like many of the legacy OEMs have been saying, Cariad will be focusing on level three automated driving.
I think some of us have been thinking something like this was inevitable, but Astrid shared a picture of a cyber truck with the graffiti art on it. But there was also apparently Starlink on the roof. Starlink mobile is actually designed for permanent installation to your vehicle. And it also offers the highest tier of availability. So when the network is congested, if you have Starlink mobile, you will get top priority. I could speculate on this for a while, but for now I'll just say it's something to keep an eye on.
Chuck Cook shared a quick video of a Tesla eight ass driver working on his famous unprotected left turn, maybe validating something for version 12. But that's just speculation. Although it sounds like there's a chance this was the first time a Tesla employee eight ass driver was back to that same location, since they were doing testing for 10.69.
You know how with Tesla at any point you can get a copy of all of your personal data. Well, I would encourage every one of you to do the same thing for your entire online profile. Ashley and myself to a lesser extent are somewhat private people. So when we found out about all of the data brokers that were literally selling our personal information, naturally, we were not happy about it.
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If you go to the Tesla Model Y configurator and scroll down, you will find something new. We now have a rear wheel drive model Y for $43,990, 260 miles of range, 135 mile an hour top speed and zero to 60 of 6.6 seconds. Before any incentives, this is now $6,500 cheaper than the model Y long range. Looking at the specs of this new variant, the weight 4,154 pounds, roughly 200 pounds lighter than both the long range and performance variants, which come in just under 4,400 pounds. Two other key differences with this variant max supercharging rate 170 kilowatts and no seven seat variants at least not yet.
So yes, I would agree it seems like an LFP pack vehicle, which would allow you to charge to 100% as often as you want and effectively give you much more range than if you had an MC and could only charge to 80 or 90%. The only thing holding me back from being more confident with that statement is that on the Tesla configurator for the model Y, it says nothing about the credits being reduced as of next year. When if this was an LFP pack coming from China, just like we're about to see with the model three, we would expect maybe a 50% reduction in the credit.
I say that because if you go to the model three configurator page at the top with that banner reductions likely after December 31st, that wording does not exist on the model Y configurator.
You may remember a few weeks back, there was a model Y all wheel drive variant for about $48,000 with 279 miles of range compared to the 260 now. There are some people out there now saying this is the cheapest model Y ever, but as Sawyer pointed out, if you go back to February 2021, you'll see Tesla was offering a rear wheel drive standard range model Y for under $40,000, $39,990. That model was a bit faster, but had 16 miles less range.
Either way, for the average consumer to get a model Y for around $36,000 after the IRA tax credit is going to be an incredibly tough proposition for any of the competition.
Speaking of that, AJ is continuing to do some good work. He shared this chart with some other popular electric SUVs in the US and said that the model Y will be undercutting the average price of the competition by between 25 and 30% or $11,000 to $13,000. Now yes, you can make the argument an entry level model Y and a pull star three are not really direct competitors. Pull star is aiming for the much more luxury premium category. You can actually buy two model Y rear wheel drives for the price of one pull star three.
说到这一点,AJ正在继续做一些出色的工作。他与美国其他一些受欢迎的电动SUV共享了这个图表,并表示Model Y的价格将比竞争对手的平均价格降低25%到30%,即11000美元到13000美元。是的,你可以提出这样的观点,入门级的Model Y和Pull Star Three并不是直接竞争对手。Pull Star Three瞄准的是更奢华高端的市场。事实上,你可以用Pull Star Three的价格购买两辆Model Y后驱车型。
I hope this serves as a great reminder that when it comes to all of the Tesla demand chatter, Tesla still has so many different types of levers that it can pull when it comes to incentives and even changing the actual vehicle lineup.
I do want to mention not all of these numbers are going to be perfectly accurate. For example, the weight of this model Y rear wheel drive is different as we just saw on the Tesla web page, but I did go through and check some of the other price and range figures and enough of them checked out.
So now we'll wait and see how long this new variant will last for Tesla, but for now it's good to see them expand the lineup. I just briefly wanted to share these four charts from the financial times this data is from the IEA. We have solar additions, electric car sales, residential heat pump sales and battery storage additions. I really don't think I need to say too much here. I'm sure you can all pick up on the trends that all of these four charts are showing, putting us squarely in this energy transition at a time when the pace is starting to pick up and Tesla is positioned arguably the best of any company on the planet to take advantage of these trends. And maybe it's not until later in the decade, but I'm pretty confident at some point we will see a Tesla residential HVAC system that utilizes their heat pump technology. Per the usual, it's not going to be about timing the market. It'll just be time in the market.
The bearded Tesla guy YouTube channel made a road trip to find a cyber truck and he got some nice up close footage show. Just wanted to share a few quick clips. Let's see what we got under here. You can kind of see up through the bed right there. There's a pretty sizable space right here and for trucks that can sometimes be just to allow water out, you know, if there's moisture in the bed, but does not look like it's going to see you like some trucks. It's interesting. It's actually, I don't know if that'll be on the final version or not, but that is too much of a gap to be a sealed bed. The tread pattern is really, I mean, it's a good aggressive pattern, but it's not overly aggressive like some of the earlier prototypes that we saw, which is good for mileage of course. And I like the, how this is integrated looks pretty cool. Actually, holy cow. Okay, that's a really thick ABS. Let's see if I can zoom in here. We can see the thickness of the steel. Really, really, really hard to tell. Let's see, look how big that door is. Pretty thick. This one's had some feet applied to it. Yeah, so this one's two generations behind what they're shipping right now. And I believe there's one more to go, but I'm, I really like these wheels. These wheels are really nice and chunky. They're 20 inch. I think that's the right size for this, especially with a big chunk tire like that. At the arm rest down and there's the perforated seats that we've seen a lot of. There's the screen. It does have the screen, so it's a more recent build, which is cool. And then here's the front cab. Very nice. Here we go. A little bit nicer. Look inside there. Sorry about the wind. There's the front dash and everything else that's really cool inside. Shout out to Justin for making that trip. And then we have the surfing hippie on X, sharing some images of the Cybertruck with that new graffiti. Personally, I think it fits the Cybertruck aesthetic perfectly. And you can see the green one here and then a yellow one here.
We got an update from Morton on the Tesla ship situation. So we have nine Tesla ships right now sailing for quarter four deliveries, some close to arrival. Now I've heard conflicting reports about how many Tesla vehicles can fit on the ship. I've seen as low as 2000 and as high as 5000. So if he roughly split the difference and go with around 3000, that could be in the neighborhood of 25 to 27,000 Teslas that are on the ships just waiting to be delivered.
I just wanted to make two points with this one. Tesla's inventory numbers are nowhere near being a problem. Still, don't forget about things like this. And two, this sets up beautifully for quarter four. A large portion of these cars are probably model three plus vehicles that Tesla could not deliver locally in China that they instead decided to export to Europe. No, I don't think Cybertruck will make any meaningful contributions to quarter four. And I do think some people may wait until next year to buy their Tesla so they can take advantage of the point of sale tax credit. Either way though, I think we're setting up for a strong quarter four in the event you have an OG Tesla Roadster for the first time since Tesla launched this new battery pack 3.0 for the original Roadster back in 2015. They have increased the price of this replacement drive Tesla got their hands on an internal Tesla memo and the upgrade will now cost 38% more than before at 40,000 US dollars. Tesla said they had to increase the price to more accurately reflect the complexity in building these battery packs and the change is effective immediately.
There was an interesting chart shared by Zander on X comparing early Rivian deliveries with early Tesla deliveries. However, should be noted the Tesla delivery started with the Model S excluding the Roadster sales, which I think makes sense. I don't want to take anything away from Rivian because they've been doing great work. I just wanted to highlight Tesla back in 2012 with no real meaningful battery supply chain and so many more hurdles at that time. It's not really a great apples to apples comparison. Today electric vehicles are much more widely accepted but again I think the biggest difference is the existence of the battery supply chain. That Tesla really has spearheaded the development of not to mention all of the funding and investment that Rivian may have never seen had it not been for Tesla.
Samsung has teamed up with Lucid for a cutting edge wall. This new wall at Lucid's design studio will enhance the collaborative design process for its future EV models. While designing the Lucid Air Sapphire from concept sketches all the way to final adjustments, Samsung enabled us to visualize the future of our vehicles in high resolution at all stages of development. A 255 inch class high resolution display. Powered by micro LED technology, it allows Lucid's designers to view and review their designs in true to life color at one to one scale. With this new tech, we can effortlessly visualize design data that incorporates engineering feedback and simulation results, allowing us to promptly assess the effects of any alteration on the overall design.
三星与Lucid合作研发了一块尖端屏幕墙。这块位于Lucid设计工作室的新墙将改善未来电动汽车模型的协作设计过程。从概念草图到最后的调整,设计Lucid Air Sapphire时,三星让我们能够在开发的各个阶段以高分辨率看到我们车辆的未来。这是一块255英寸级别的高分辨率显示屏,采用了微型LED技术,让Lucid的设计师能够以逼真的色彩以一比一的比例查看和审查设计。有了这项新技术,我们可以轻松地将工程反馈和模拟结果融入设计数据,并迅速评估任何变动对整体设计的影响。
Remember how those lawyers wanted $230 million in legal fees for that deal that they settled with some Tesla directors over their compensation that they will now be returning? Yeah, Tesla's not really gonna go for that. They said those fees were demonstrably unreasonable. And we're roughly four times what the lawyers should earn for leading the investor lawsuit. We don't need to get into the nitty gritty here but I do think it's worth noting they said regardless of what it costs the directors and how much they have to give back, this agreement settlement is only going to be worth about $295 million to Tesla. This is part of why they're arguing that that settlement amount for those lawyers is ridiculous. These legal briefs from Tesla were filed back September 22nd but were just made public yesterday. We'll see what happens.
Volvo has just announced the price of their entry level EX30 electric vehicle. You're gonna have single motor variants with 275 miles of range between 36 and $41,000. Then you can step up to a twin motor performance all wheel drive variant with around 265 miles of range between 46 and $48,000. The EX30 will be Volvo's smallest electric vehicle in their fleet and the small packs have a 69 kilowatt hour pack. Deliveries are set to begin summer 2024. They are going to be made in China though so they will not qualify for the IRA tax credit. 0-60 in 3.4 seconds. They do come with a heat pump. They can sew up to 2,000 pounds. They have the Thor hammer headlamps. A comparable vehicle size wise would be the Hyundai Kona. The EX30 has 32 cubic feet of cargo capacity, a lot of hard plastic inside. There's no instrument cluster, just one main touchscreen like Tesla and they have the phone chargers and ambient lighting again like Tesla. They use a Google touchscreen, there's a Harman card and audio sound system, max charging speeds of 153 kilowatts and it has a 360 degree camera. Personally, I think this car has some juice. What do you guys think?
GM has officially begun deliveries of both the Silverado and the Chevy Blazer EVs selling 18 and 19 respectively in quarter 3. More importantly, GM is starting to get some level of traction with its more established electric vehicles. The Cadillac Lyric sold 3,018 units in the third quarter, up from the 36 last year and 1,167 Hummer EVs in the quarter, up from 411 a year ago. And they're saying GM said again it expects to build more EVs through the second half of this year. Well, we're already through one half of the second half of the year so we're running out of time. It really is too soon to see any significant impact from the UAW strikes on GM's third quarter sales. Those strikes began September 15th so that wasn't a whole lot of time. GM's electric vehicle sales did increase 28% compared to quarter 2. It'll be very interesting to see what GM does with the bolt because again it is their best selling electric vehicle. Its combined sales are up 125% year to date. The total through the third quarter already exceeds that of 2022. And yes, those Silverado EV deliveries are right now only fleet customers. Cadillac Lyric sales in the third quarter, up 124% compared to Q2. The threshold that I'm personally always looking for is 10,000 units of a full electric vehicle being sold month after month. So far in the United States, no one else outside of Tesla is pulling off that feat.
We talked about how Ford was going to pause the construction of the battery plant in Michigan, the joint venture with CATL. Ford is still getting public funding for that site. And now Ford is saying that regardless of what happens with the CATL deal, they will use that location for some sort of production regardless. And thus, it's still being prepared for that purpose. This third party company, Walbridge is actually doing the site prep work now. It's only the Ford component of the work that has been paused. Good news for Rivian R1S fans as you can now configure one with the Max-Pack battery, which has an estimated range of 400 miles. Compared to the large pack, the Max-Pack is $10,000 extra and offers 48 extra miles of range. Ford was trying to instill some new rules when it comes to dealerships and selling electric vehicles, but now we have a judge ruling that we may see a pause on those rules. A judge has blocked Ford and Lincoln from imposing facility and business requirements on five dealerships to sell EVs until the retailer's lawsuit challenging Ford's dealer agreement changes as resolved. The question before the court is not whether the programs are reasonable or whether participation is voluntary. Instead, the question before the court is whether the effect of Ford's EV programs modifies the franchise business relationship. Each states that a non-participating dealer may not sell or service Ford EVs, this would be a significant change in the current business model. For now though, this situation is still up in the air.
Yesterday, the UAW made a counter offer to GM, but GM indicated the two sides were still not close to an agreement. A source said this was the union's first comprehensive counter to GM's most recent proposal.
Ford said it has now laid off a total of 930 workers in connection with the strike. When it comes to Q3 sales, Stellantis continues to struggle, third quarter volume slipped 1.3% and Jeep in Ram posted declines of 4.2 and 3.5%. Jeep volume has now dropped 9 straight quarters.
We have a very unfortunate story of a cruise robotaxi being involved in an incident with a pedestrian in San Francisco. Ultimately, this woman who suffered multiple traumatic injuries was trapped underneath the robotaxi, but Cruz is saying it was a separate vehicle that hit the woman first and then essentially knocked her right into the path of the cruise robotaxi. We don't need to get into the gruesome details, but just know that right now this accident is still being investigated.
What's that saying when it rains at pores? GM and Stellantis may be facing almost $10 billion in fines if Biden's proposal to hike fuel economy standards in 2032 goes through. NHTSA then said these estimated fines are consistent with our statutory obligations. Adding automakers are free to use electric vehicles to comply and avoid penalties altogether.
And we have Ford introducing the F-150 Lightning Flash, a new tech forward model. It'll be available January 2024 and it's supposed to cost under $70,000. This one will have an extended range battery with a targeted EPA range of 320 miles. The Flash, more tech features at a more affordable price. We're still waiting for more word on what's going on with the rest of the F-150 Lightning cancellations.
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