Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. Quick shoutout to my new or updated patrons to nearh, Samuel S, John L and Dick L. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
How about this one? This is the type of thing I wish got more coverage, but either way, if your car is doing something you may not understand in the moment, just know at this point, maybe it's something you don't.
Last night, Rob from Tesla Daily talked about Goldman Sachs lowering their Tesla stock price target due to price cuts and Tesla's pricing strategy. There's a reason I oftentimes skip these Wall Street updates because at the same time, we have another firm talking about the exact same situation Tesla's pricing strategy, but UBS is actually treating it as a positive for a Tesla upgrade. UBS raised their price target because of this exact same pricing strategy saying it can potentially provide it with a formidable competitive edge. In my humble opinion, when it comes to the long term, 98 times out of 100, these Wall Street Tesla stock updates are useless.
There's one Tesla storyline that definitely is not getting enough attention, and it's how the repairability of Tesla vehicles continues to increase more and more, giving DIYers much more access. When five or 10 years ago, Tesla was continually knocked for maintaining somewhat of a walled garden when it comes to access to DIY repairs for Tesla vehicles. In their defense, at the time, it had a lot to do with safety. They couldn't have just anyone working on these new vehicles. But now, and fairly quietly, Tesla has added things like free service manuals you can access online and the service mode right in the car that continually gets updates and allows you to do a lot more. Now sure, Tesla definitely still has some work to do when it comes to the availability of replacement parts, the hardware, but overall, Tesla has made so much progress on this repairability front for DIY people, which is really good to see.
Right now, if you see headlines and articles out there talking about Gigatexus receiving new Cybertruck manufacturing equipment, it's true, but it's really just from this one picture from Joe Tettmeyer. It appears to be two robot arms that are headed for Cybertruck Zone X, and this is coming from Gladiator Rigs. Sadly though, that's just the transportation or the logistics company. So yes, new Cybertruck manufacturing equipment is arriving, but this is happening weekly at this point.
目前,如果你看到有关Gigatexus收到新的Cybertruck制造设备的头条新闻和文章,这是真的,但实际上只是来源于Joe Tettmeyer的一张照片。这些照片显示有两个机器人臂将被运送到Cybertruck Zone X,这来自于Gladiator Rigs。然而遗憾的是,Gladiator Rigs只是一家物流公司。所以是的,新的Cybertruck制造设备正在陆续运抵,但现在已经是每周进行一次了。
Tesla scope and dirty Tesla have notified us that employee vehicles are now moving from the dot seven dot 30 branch way up to the dot 27 dot five branch with this FSD 11 dot four dot seven dot one in layman's terms. What this means is the FSD beta group who is usually on an older software branch, meaning they don't have all of the latest Tesla UI features are now much closer to being on the main branch with everybody else that does have all of the latest UI features. So once this FSD beta group receives the dot 27 update, they're going to get all of the features from three separate updates dot 12 dot 20 and dot 26, which definitely include some nice features. But we've talked about all of these in the past. So I'll link this below if you want to check it out.
Perhaps most importantly though, the FSD beta group is now much closer to being on that main software branch with everybody else.
然而,最重要的是,FSD测试组现在离其他人所用的主要软件分支更近了一步。
Kathy Wood was on CNBC talking about her $1400 Tesla bear case by 2027 and how it's 130 electric vehicles and two thirds autonomy. But she had some interesting comments on the regulatory environment.
You know, for two thirds of the valuation, do you feel like that there's risk even around the bear case at all with the two thirds? Actually, the risks are going down because regulators are very data-driven. And what regulators have been experiencing, especially in the transportation sector, is that the number of auto deaths in the United States have gone up, has gone up during the past five to 10 years from 30,000 to 45,000 after decades of falling, thanks to auto safety measures.
So the National Highway and Transportation Safety Board and other transportation authorities want to turn that trend back down. Why has it happened? A lot of it is because of texting and therefore a disproportionate number of young people are dying in auto accidents. So the data supports what Tesla is doing. 80 to 90% of all accidents on the roads are caused by human error. If you take the human being out of the equation and use AI to get people from point A to point B as safely as quickly as possible.
I think the authorities, the regulators, are going to be persuaded by the data. In fact, they already have been in terms of the fatalities in Tesla's cars. They examine them. They say, not Tesla's fault for the most part. And oh, by the way, people driving in Tesla cars are 40% plus safer with autopilot and FSD than in other cars.
So the next time you hear somebody say, I didn't sign up for this Tesla FSD experiment on my public roads, just go ahead and remind them of the experiment they're already in with distracted driving.
So what I'm about to explain, of course, has a time component to it as the auto-bitter software generates profits over time as it operates in the real world. But if we just take this snapshot, we recently heard about the profits auto-bitter is generating for the operators and presumably a portion goes to Tesla, we can get a rough rule of thumb each time new megawatt hour deployments are reported, and we can begin to understand the financial benefits to the project operator and owners.
So if we take that $330 million in profits divided by 7 gigawatt hours, which is 7,000 megawatt hours, that's $47.1 thousand per megawatt hour. But for simple math, let's round up to 50,000. That means that over time, call it a few years depending on many factors, with this 200 megawatt hour project using Tesla megapacks, auto-bitter could generate $10 million in profits in a relatively short amount of time, and this is software which will continue to get better with time.
So when it comes to Tesla megapacks, don't forget it's not just the selling of the actual megapack, but it's all of the recurring revenue that will happen for both the owner operator and Tesla over the long term.
This past week, we've been talking about the Tesla semi in the run on less event and specifically how we need the grid to be able to handle this megawatt level charging. Well, Dan Priestley, a senior engineer for semi engineering, just posted on LinkedIn, come join a team that designs ultra high volume parts that have to stand up to abuse, high voltage, and large mechanical loads in every environment on earth. The high voltage distribution group is amazingly efficient in creating scalable reliable cost-effective designs. This would be for not only the semi, but presumably the cyber truck as well.
We still have plenty of folks saying the grid is not ready for this EV transition and to some degree they may be right. However, we also have Anthony Sussine, a senior investment strategist who has attended many conferences for these utility companies, saying as you go to conferences and speak with industry participants, especially the utilities, these guys have been planning for this forever. The utility companies are planning up to 15 years down the road to try to accommodate the transition to EVs.
One of the biggest problems we talk a lot about that's why scheduled charging is becoming a big deal and location chargers at shopping centers, things like that. One of the biggest problems is still peak charging. Sadly, we don't get a ton of detail with this one, but he said there's a lot of initiatives actually happening, especially in the US and California to account for this.
You'd be surprised how long term these guys are thinking. So possibly we have the retail narrative that often comes from the mainstream media. And then we have the actual industry conferences where things are certainly happening. It might just take years for these things to actually develop and show up. But it sounds like this group has been planning things for a long time.
We got the weekly China insurance data for Tesla came in 8,500 units and the culprit for this lower number should come as no surprise. The Model 3 only made up 245 of that number. Don't forget the past few weeks Tesla has not been able to sell the updated Model 3 plus in the domestic Chinese market because they've been waiting for official approval.
Plugging this data in if you wanted to compare it to the same week in quarter two, that number was 14.5,000. Thus far through the first 11 weeks of quarter three, we sit at 120.2,000, comparing that to the first 11 weeks of quarter two, we were at 125.2,000. So we're now officially behind the Q2 pace.
But again, an outcome like this should not surprise anyone Tesla told us on the Q2 call that they're going to have factory shutdowns and upgrades in Q3. So a flat or even down quarter was to be expected. And I'm telling you, I'm not just trying to spin this because I'd be fine if Tesla had a bad quarter or even a bad year, honestly, when it comes to the long term.
But this could set up Tesla for a pretty good quarter for in Europe because all of these new Model 3s, they've been seemingly exporting more than usual because they haven't been able to deliver these to the domestic market. Speaking of the new Model 3, it just arrived today in showrooms in Italy. Deliveries for this vehicle are expected to start next month.
If we don't make serious progress by noon on Friday, September 22, more locals will be called on to stand up and join the strike. That will mark more than a week since our first members walked out. And those on the job will keep monitoring for unilateral changes made by management, which are not allowed under an expired contract.
And when it comes to Ford negotiating with the labor union in Canada, Unifor, they got an extra 24 hours. So the new deadline is tonight, Tuesday at midnight. The deadline was extended because Unifor received a substantive offer from Ford minutes before the deadline last night. That said, a strike is still on the table. If this master committee cannot come to terms on a final settlement, our collective agreement with Ford will expire and we will be on strike. The last time we had a strike with Ford Motor Company was 1990. But what I can confirm is that if there is a strike, this will be a total strike. Every single one of Unifor's 5,600 members at Ford in Canada will be on picket lines.
Back to the US strikes, we have some quick analysis from Gene Munster saying like most people that Tesla is the clear winner. The simple takeaway from his analysis, Tesla's labor costs will be 48% lower than the big three after they come to terms with the UAW and after Tesla's employees get a 15% bump likely in the next six months should be clear. This part about him thinking Tesla employees are getting a pay raise is speculation on his part. On this one, I could see it going either way. Personally, I think Tesla employees would have to be pretty discontent to leave Tesla to go to a potentially dying company due to whatever price hike compensation plan increase they ultimately get. Because to give up Tesla's employee stock purchase program is a pretty huge risk over the next few years with autonomy and everything else looming. So here are his fully loaded wage calculations should be noted. This includes pensions and profit sharing for UAW and excludes stock options for Tesla employees. Doing some quick searching, it seems like labor costs are oftentimes anywhere between 7% to 10% of the overall cost of a vehicle. So with Tesla's labor cost gap competitiveness potentially increasing, just going to get that much harder for the big three.
You may recall a lawsuit that Tesla shareholders brought against Tesla claiming a toxic workplace. Well, they cannot proceed. A federal court has ruled that these Tesla investors bringing the suit failed to show that they were excused from first making a demand that the company's board take legal action. Meaning these Tesla investors failed to do anything about the situation before bringing the lawsuit. It sounds like Tesla is not out of the woods totally though as these investors may attempt to fix the deficiencies in a new version of their complaint. But for now, Tesla is in the clear.
Looking at the Model X delivery window after the price cuts, it's changed again. Now it sits at November to December. Previously, it was October to November and just two or three weeks ago, it was September to October. And it's the same for the dual motor and the tri motor. So most likely a good sign of a slight demand spike after the price cuts.
Today, the Wall Street Journal is reporting on a justice department probe looking into Elon and all of these personal stories we've heard about him maybe buying glass to build a house for himself, things that we've already heard about. I find it kind of interesting this comes out the day after Elon shoots down the Wall Street Journal for that false article. Either way though, they're saying federal prosecutors are scrutinizing personal benefits Tesla may have given Elon since 2017, longer than the initial timeframe they were looking at. But they're still stuck on this house situation that Elon has denied on X multiple times. They're pursuing potential criminal charges. The crux of this investigation seems to be whether Tesla properly disclosed any perks Elon may have received. We've been over all of this before, but if you're new, go ahead and pause and read. The main takeaway with this for now is it's still all just allegations in here say they don't seem to have anything tangible as of now.
This anecdote right here is awesome. This coming from Steve Gursky who took over as Nicholas CEO in August who also served on GM's board of directors between 2009 and 2016. Shortly after he joined GM he brought up Tesla in a meeting and he said I asked about Tesla and was told it was just a bunch of engineers playing with laptop batteries. That was conventional wisdom at the time and we know how that turned out. Tesla got a 10 year jump start on the entire industry. How about good old Bob Lutz back in 2020 saying it talking about Tesla stock is driven purely by psychology or almost a mass psychosis. Meanwhile shares of Tesla stock have surged more than fivefold since he made those comments.
Redwood materials said today it has acquired lithium ion battery recycler Redux recycling to increase battery recycling capacity and strengthen its footing in Europe's EV market. Redux's facility in North Germany is equipped to recycle 10,000 tons of battery every year. This facility will allow Redwood to transport recycle and refine EV packs and batteries from across the European continent. Separately Redwood materials is planning to invest a three digit million sum in Germany in the near future according to JB's struggle. He said over a period of time in the near future we want to invest a three digit million sum in Germany. I'm looking forward to us finally getting started. There is another EV car company over in Germany but the name is escaping me right now.
Volvo said today it'll end production of any remaining diesel models by early 2024. In a few months from now the last diesel powered Volvo car will have been built making Volvo cars one of the first legacy car makers to take this step. While the majority of the cars Volvo sold in Europe were diesel as recently as 2019 last year they made up just 8.9%. In August this year 33% of Volvo sales were fully electric or hybrid but the company did not break down how much of the remaining 67% of ICE vehicles were diesel and how many were petrol. Reminder Volvo is planning to be all electric by 2030.
We should have known something like this was coming after the Tesla deal with Hilton. Now we have EV connect today announcing an agreement with Marriott to simplify EV charging for its properties and guests. Marriott properties will have the ability to choose the charging hardware deployed on the open platform allowing them to scale EV charging needs for the unique needs of individual locations. Marriott's portfolio consists of 8,600 properties under 31 brands spanning 139 countries and territories. I found this blog post from EV connect where they were praising GM and Ford for adopting the next. They then tout their open and flexible EV charging platform and say EV connect has been hardware agnostic they'll always be EV connect works with hardware vendors and they named BTC, Zorova, Power Charge, Evo Charge, Tridium and many others. But then they go on to say EV connect supports 5 connector types globally including Chathamo, CCS, CCS2, J1772 and Type 2. And this was from June so it's not super old so fingers crossed they'll support the NACS going forward.
We got some new pictures of the upcoming Chevy Equinox in China. This one is built in tandem with SAIC and of course the variant for the United States will be coming from Mexico. But the question still remains will GM keep this vehicle starting at $30,000. It's really not a bad looking car so this is certainly one to watch it's a huge deal for GM. On that note though GM has said it's going to idle and assembly plant in Ontario due to delays in the supply of battery modules. This is where they make the bright drop commercial van and production won't resume until the spring 2024. Currently the Altium battery that powers bright drop vans is made in Ohio. So GM's Altium still having some issues.
And we have Stellantis looking to downsize some of its North American headquarters. The COO of Stellantis today said the company has a series of facilities that we were looking to downsize or reconfigure. We have a lot of the building here in Auburn Hills were not utilizing today we're looking at other use cases for that.
Just in case you want to support the Cybertruck Teardown Fund Monroe Live is now selling these Cybertruck designed bottle openers which are pretty cool. This one is $75 and this one signed by Sandy or inscribed is $150. This is an engraving each one is not hand signed.
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