Hey everybody Rob Maurer here, happy Friday today we've got some catching up to do after the Walter Isaacson interview yesterday. We've got some very interesting details on Tesla's next generation vehicle platform, some vehicle updates, the UAW has commenced its strike, and a few other items as well.
Alright, looking at the stock, not a bad day for Tesla today, down 6 cents of a percent closing at $274.39, the NASDAQ down 1.6%, so actually a pretty decent overperformance from Tesla relative to the broader market. However, interestingly with the UAW strike, Tesla was actually outperformed by Ford, GM, and Stellantis today. So not sure exactly what interpretation the market is taking there with the strike, you would presume that this would be something that would be negative for them, probably a positive for Tesla, though that's a little bit up for debate, but nevertheless those stocks seeming outperformed today.
Alright, kind of an interesting headline here from Reuters today as we get into the news, they say Tesla's reinvented car making with quiet breakthrough. So it's a nice headline, I'll take that.
If we get into the article, what this article is about is for Tesla's next generation vehicle, Tesla's plans to do a single frame, single large frame, unibody, unibody casting for the next generation vehicle. So this is something, you know, that this is something that's been on the roadmap or sort of the hypothetical roadmap for Tesla for years. If we go back all the way to 2019, as we have talked about, as we've talked about many times on the podcast, Tesla had filed a patent application back in 2019 for a multi directional unibody casting machine for a vehicle frame. So if we zoom in a bit on this photo, we can see what Tesla kind of had in mind at that time. Obviously, Elon has talked about how he wants vehicles to just be essentially like making a toy car, which would be sort of done the same way, obviously at a very, very, very small scale, but you know, this has been something again that Tesla has talked about for years. If they are now implementing this, I'm sure it's come a long way from their initial thoughts. You know, even the application here was actually 2018, I think the beginning of 2018, which shows, you know, how far back this is sort of gone in terms of Tesla's sort of thought process. So we've seen them implement that now with front castings with rear castings, but this would combine both of those and the middle underbody where the structural battery would be so sort of the the holy grail of castings could still be on the table.
So basically what we're just saying is they've got five different sources that are telling them that Tesla is working on this, which is, you know, obviously very exciting. If this does happen, they say Tesla's expected to make a decision on whether the die cast for this platform to use the die cast in one piece for this platform as soon as this month, according to three of those five sources. And even if they do press ahead with end products, even if they do press ahead with this giant casting machine, the end product could change during the design validation process. So that's actually what causes a little bit of the, I guess, concern or hesitancy to just generally do what Tesla may have in mind here.
So the rest of the order, the rodeers article kind of talks about how Tesla would be working with industrial sand and 3D printers and using that industrial sand to essentially make a a test mold that then they could eventually convert into a full metal mold for the actual production process. Because if they do it with metal initially, any single change that they make might cost anywhere from $100,000 up to $1.5 million. And if you're doing that a lot of times, obviously that adds up. So what they detail is sort of Tesla's iterative process and how they've come to find that industrial sand may be working good enough for those molds to minimize those sort of you know, readjustment costs that might be included, which are obviously potentially going to be pretty significant with such a massive, massive casting.
So pretty interesting and obviously a very high level of detail here or you know, low level depending on how you interpreted it. But a lot of details here on what Tesla's plans are, which I think gives credibility to the report in general about Tesla going down this path.
They do give a couple of details just on the next generation platform. They say the kind of small cars Tesla's developing, one for personal use and the other a robot taxi, don't have big overhangs at the front and the back as there is not much of a hood or rear trunk. So the reason they say that is because that could minimize, you know, the material or the size of the castings that would be needed, which would help make this more feasible. But also just kind of interesting for us to have those details as obviously we've started to see at least a couple of concept images for that robot taxi vehicle.
Tesla still has to make the call on what kind of kick press they would use, but they say that Tesla would need something in the range of about 16,000 tons or more in terms of the clamping press for the casting machine for such a massive project like this. Again, this is coming from, you know, three to five different sources that have seemingly some pretty detailed information here. So obviously Tesla started out with sort of the 6,000 ton press moving up to the 9,000 ton press right now for the cyber truck. This would be moving again to the next level, a pretty significant jump up to potentially 16,000 tons or more if this report is accurate.
So again, it sounds like this is something that is being decided on basically right now, whether Tesla pursues this, it doesn't really give us much information on what the other options would be if they don't. But I think we can kind of imagine that it would be front and rear cast and then maybe something different from the middle. But let's hope that this works out well for Tesla and we do end up getting to see this. I think we all would be very excited and can look forward to watching the parts be imported and all the fun stuff that we had with the 9,000 ton presses getting installed at Giga Texas. So definitely keep an eye on that and exciting to have that report from Raiders.
One Giga Mexico. So we've been talking a bit about this over the last couple of weeks as we've had some different reports about it. Millennial now reporting that Tesla is planning to today actually deliver the letter of intent to formalize the installation and startup of Giga Mexico in New Way, Balion. So obviously, you know, as we've talked about, there have been some shifts in plans. Chinese suppliers have reported that Tesla originally had a lot of urgency and then kind of dialed it back a little bit. So we're not sure right now it kind of seems like there's less urgency, but the plans for Mexico may be a little bit bigger than they initially were.
So this doesn't give us a whole lot more information on that, but good to see at least some of the steps seeming to continue to happen.
所以这并没有给我们带来更多关于此事的信息,但至少还是能看到一些步骤似乎在继续进行,这是好事。
Alright. Next, we've just got a quick update on the Cybertruck. So someone muddy ruts on YouTube here. They were doing some off-roading and they came across a couple of the Cybertruck release candidates, talked to the drivers of this. And according to the drivers, apparently Tesla is going to be starting deliveries in October. So probably not too surprising in terms of the timeline. I think if most of us had to circle something on the calendar as a guest, that's probably what a lot of people would pick, probably the consensus right now. But interesting to hear that from Tesla, obviously plans will change and can change.
So wouldn't necessarily put that in pen yet, but kind of interesting to hear that update. And you know, we'll hope for that date as that could be sort of within the next month or so. And then maybe related to Cybertruck, Tesla has actually dropped the sort of Model Y all-wheel drive. It's always a little bit confusing now with the names, but only the long range and the performance remain. So the 4680 sort of standard range Model Y has been actually removed from the design studio.
So that is the only 4680 vehicle right now for Tesla for that to be removed, obviously with the upcoming launch of the Cybertruck could be related. Tesla said that they are using a second generation 4680 cell for the Cybertruck through Biglino on the last earnings call called a disiver cell. So how closely that would relate to what Tesla had been using here for the all-wheel drive version. It's not entirely clear, but I definitely think that timing is interesting.
And since we have seen Tesla kind of move down the price curve pretty dramatically on vehicles this year, it seems like it would be more related to something with production than it would be to something with just a manned and Tesla cutting out the lower price vehicle for that reason. So interesting and hopefully we'll get a little bit more detail on that not too far from now on earnings call, although with Tesla you never know.
Okay, next we've got some more information on the Highland Model 3. So Wu was done a great job of following this. We've talked about how we saw kind of a few hundred of these in the gigashang high parking lot, Wu was gone out to the port now as he often does and has found a lot of these Model 3s being staged for export now at the port. So how this compares to what was in the lot, I think it's difficult to say, but clearly you know, at least a few hundred vehicles here. So hopefully a pretty good sign for how Tesla's production rate is coming along with Highland. But obviously our first big update on that will probably come in sort of the first second week of October when we do get those September production numbers. So we'll keep an eye on that, but nice to see a bunch of these ready to go to Europe.
Next we've got a really interesting update from Rohan Ma, one of Tesla's executives on the energy team. So he shared on LinkedIn that Auto Bitter has grown into global portfolio to over 7 gigawatt hours of battery storage under direct dispatch next year. And our real time algorithms have already returned over $330 million in trading profit to early storage investors. So hopefully I think everyone here is probably familiar with Auto Bitter. But basically what they're doing is sort of energy arbitrage where Tesla could store energy that is purchased at a lower price or generated and then use Tesla's sort of artificial intelligence machine learning program with Auto Bitter to sell that during when it's going to be most cost effective to do so. So basically sort of time shifting energy usage and generating profit off of that, which is now grown to $330 million in profit. They're not saying that that is Tesla's profit, they're just saying that that is profit for the actual owners of the product. Tesla may share in that or be some additional profit above this $330 million. But I think he's just saying that in total that's sort of what it has generated. So obviously a pretty good start as Tesla continues to scale. We're still in the very early innings. It talks about 7 gigawatt hours here. You know, as Tesla's scales, the 7 gigawatt hour number is going to pretty quickly become small to where Tesla is going. So it shows you that how much additional opportunity there is here over time as this portfolio grows for Auto Bitter to grow alongside that and generate those obviously high margin revenues for energy storage. And that goes a long way in terms of advancing energy storage because if this revenue can be calculated into the ownership or sort of the cost of the project, then that's going to make the project more cost effective obviously and open up different use cases that maybe one otherwise exists. So definitely exciting to have that update from Tesla on that.
All right, quick other updates here. So Tesla charging, we talked yesterday about how Tesla had installed or two days ago about how Tesla installed the 50th, 50,000 supercharger. And apparently this is it. Tesla charging posting on this on X and they have designated this specifically with a red or ultra red color as the 50,000 charger. They've got a little plaque on there as well. I think I saw that this is somewhere in California. I don't have the exact location on me right now, but kind of a cool, just fun thing that Tesla did. And obviously I think it looks pretty cool as a contrast to what we normally see for the superchargers, just sort of the plain white. So I don't think I would want them to switch over all superchargers to this, but definitely cool to see it on this, you know, one milestone, unique supercharger.
And then Tesla's also announced that they have added factory tours to the referral program. So for 15,000 referral credits, you can now attend a factory tour. So I'm just going to open up the app here and get the details. Tesla had said, or Tesla is scheduled rather, the Fremont tour, which isn't selected here, but the Fremont tour is October 26th. So it looks like they're just setting a date for this and then kind of doing everybody at once. I'm sure they will do this multiple times in the future, but October 26th for the Fremont tour, again, 15,000 credits must be 18 years or older to redeem, but you can bring three guests with you. So a total of four people for this factory tour, all guests must be eight years or older. So I think a pretty cool referral program update. Obviously this is going to be something that should be pretty low cost for Tesla that can help sort of, you know, drain, I guess, for lack of better word or get redemption of those referral credits. So again, we've talked about this with a Cybertruck delivery raffle or I guess delivery invitation through the referral program as well. Similar concept where Tesla can do this pretty low cost stuff that is actually potentially very high value for, for customers or refers. So I think it's kind of a win-win and just excited to see Tesla, you know, doing some things, creative things like this within their referral program. And hopefully that'll give, you know, people a chance to do something that maybe they've wanted to do for their whole lives. So pretty cool to see that.
And the next we, we do have the official UAW strikes. So we've talked a number of times about this over the last couple of weeks coming into the September 14th deadline that has now passed. UAW is striking at all three automakers, generators, Ford and Stellantis. So they are not all employees are not strike right now. It's about 10% in total, specifically targeted at factories that the UAW feels will be impactful. Though I did read right now they have avoided the sort of truck plants. So not sure exactly why they would do that, but trying to target some specific factories to presumably maximize the impact of this strike at this point. And right now the two sides remain according to the offers that are on the table. A little bit far apart, looks like the UAW is looking for about a 36% raise it for four years. So far the automakers have generally offered about 20%. So still a little bit of ways to go in terms of narrowing that gap. But we'll see how long this continues for. Obviously, if this goes on for a long period of time, this is going to put pressure on all these automakers in terms of production, in terms of cash flow, as they'll probably need to continue to bring in parts from suppliers and things like that. So they've built up inventory, finished goods inventory at dealerships as we have talked about. So they've got that going for them. But it's going to be very interesting to watch how this plays out. And obviously this will have repercussions throughout the automotive industry, throughout the economy, especially in the United States as this goes on. So it'll be interesting and the results of the negotiations here could set benchmarks for what Tesla employees seek over time as well. So even though Tesla, obviously not unionized, there are some potential effects there in terms of the baseline that Tesla is working with as well. So again, it'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Yesterday, or I guess Wednesday, we did, well Thursday, yesterday we did see the producer price index released. That actually came in a little bit higher than expected on the headline number at least. So that was a 0.7% increase, which was higher than the 0.4% estimate.
The biggest month again, you can see there since June of last year. So came in a little bit higher than expectation, but largely driven by energy costs, I believe with core coming in at just a 2%, or sorry, 0.2% increase, which was in line with the estimate.
So pretty similar to the CPI report, or sorry, pretty similar to the CPI report where the headline came in a little bit high from those energy costs. That being said, even with that higher than expected results, if we look at the FedWatch tool here from CME Group, expectations for the Fed meeting next week have largely stayed where they've been for a while, even becoming a little bit more solidified in the expectation for a pause. Those expectations now sitting at 99%.
So we'll see the FOMC meeting as we look at the calendar for next week is scheduled for Wednesday. So we'll get the interest rate decision at that point, the Fed statement, and then probably most impactful this time since expectations are so isolated in that one result, as long as that is the result, which seems likely, then probably most of the reaction would be from whatever Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says during that conference. So we'll see on that.
And then the last thing, just if you didn't have a chance to check out the Walter Isaacson interview yesterday, make sure you go back and check that out. I thought it was interesting what he had to say about sort of the next generation vehicle platform, and I'll just leave that as a little bit of a teaser for those that haven't watched it yet, but that are up and up for today.
So as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on X at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you next week for the September 18th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.