Markets Weekly September 2, 2023

Hello my friends, today is September 2nd, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about three things.

大家好，今天是9月2日，我叫约瑟夫，欢迎收听本期的“市场周刊”。本周我们将会讨论三个话题。

First, we're going to talk about what's going on in China. There's a very interesting article released in the Wall Street Journal this past week, which gives Xi Jinping's perspective on how to take care of the Chinese economy and it's very different from what I think many Western commentators are thinking.

首先，我们要讨论一下中国目前的情况。《华尔街日报》上一周发表了一篇非常有趣的文章，详细阐述了习近平对中国经济的治理观点，与许多西方评论家的看法有很大不同。

Secondly, we have to talk about what's happening in the labor market. This past week we had a lot of interesting data on the US labor market and it looks like things are slowing but in a good way.

其次，我们必须谈谈劳动力市场上正在发生的情况。在过去的一周里，我们有了许多关于美国劳动力市场的有趣数据，看起来情况正在缓慢但是是向好的方向发展。

Lastly, I want to talk about the US dollar. Over the past several months, I've had a positive view on the dollar but that just doesn't seem to have been working. But I'm going to go over what is happening in other countries and why it suggests to me that maybe the time for the dollar to shine has finally arrived.

最后，我想谈谈美元。在过去的几个月里，我对美元持有积极的观点，但它似乎并没有奏效。不过，我将会讨论其他国家正在发生的情况，以及为什么它让我觉得，也许现在是美元蓄势待发的时候到了。

Starting with China. So just to set the stage, as we all know, the Chinese economy has not been doing very well. There's a couple reasons for this. One, of course, China had very big lockdowns, more than anyone else and they had some trouble restarting their economy.

从中国开始。所以先来简单概括一下，正如我们都知道的，中国经济状况并不太好。这有几个原因。首先，中国实施了非常严格的封锁措施，比其他任何国家都多，这导致他们在重启经济方面遇到了一些困难。

Secondly, there's been significant stress in the real estate sector in China. Real estate is a really important asset. It's widely held by the Chinese households and it's a big part of the economy. What's happening right now is real estate prices are going down so a lot of households are feeling squeezed. They bought a lot of money to buy real estate, hoping that the real estate prices will continue to go up forever but they're not. Now they're stuck with underwater properties. That is to say that their properties are worth less than the mortgage but they continue to have to pay mortgages. So that's crimping consumer confidence. And of course, when a big part of your economy is about building real estate and real estate prices are going down, that means there's less building going on.

其次，中国的房地产行业面临着重大的压力。房地产是一项非常重要的资产，广大中国家庭普遍持有，并且它是经济的重要组成部分。目前的情况是房地产价格正在下降，因此很多家庭感到经济拮据。他们花了大量钱购买房地产，希望房地产价格将继续持续上涨，但现实是并非如此。现在他们被困在高借款、资产贬值的困境中。也就是说，他们的房产价值低于贷款余额，但仍需继续支付贷款。这进一步挤压了消费者的信心。当然，当经济中重要部分的房地产建设和房地产价格下降时，就意味着建设活动减少了。

Now, that being the problem. Now, many commentators have expected that China would just embark upon some huge stimulus to try to restart their economy. That seems to be what the government has done over the past few decades. Whenever there is a slump, the government will basically just spend a whole bunch of money, build a bunch of buildings, build bridges, build stuff, whatever, as long as they're building stuff and they are creating jobs and they're creating GDP and so forth. So that was the anticipation but that's just not happening.

现在问题就在这里。现在，许多评论家预计中国会采取大规模刺激措施以重新启动经济。这似乎是政府在过去几十年中一直在做的事情。每当出现经济萧条时，政府基本上会花掉大量资金，修建大量建筑物，修建桥梁等等，只要他们在建设东西、创造就业和增加国内生产总值等方面做得越多越好。所以这是我们的预期，但实际上并没有发生。

Another common perspective is that Western commentators are thinking that Chinese government been on this investment-driven growth model for some time but obviously that's not sustainable. You can only build so many buildings. You can only build so many bridges. The underlying economic value of that infrastructure investment is never going to be worth more than a debt and so it's kind of a waste. So you obviously can't do this model forever. What you've got to do is you have to be more like the Western countries. You have to transition into a consumer-driven economy like the US.

另一个常见观点是，西方评论员认为中国政府在投资驱动的经济增长模式上已经坚持了一段时间，但显然这是不可持续的。你只能建造那么多建筑物，修建那么多桥梁。这种基础设施投资的经济价值永远不会超过债务，所以这种模式有点浪费。因此，显然不能永远采用这种模式。你必须更像西方国家，转向像美国那样的消费驱动经济模式。

So in the US and in many many other countries, the economy is largely driven by consumer spending. So US businesses produce and sell to US consumers. In contrast, of course, a lot of the Chinese economy is driven by just big investment projects taken on by the state. So that was the perspective of many commentators.

因此，在美国和许多其他国家，经济主要由消费者支出推动。因此，美国企业生产并向美国消费者销售产品。相比之下，中国经济的很大一部分当然是由国家承担的大型投资项目推动。这是许多评论员的观点。

Now this recent article in the Wall Street Journal by Lomingue gives us insight into the thoughts of President Xi Jinping. Now President Xi Jinping appears to have released a speech to the public that he gave earlier in the year. The release appears to address a lot of these comments from foreigners and other policymakers as well.

现在，《华尔街日报》的这篇最新文章，通过洛明盖尔（Lomingue）向我们展示了习近平主席的想法。习近平主席似乎将今年早些时候发表的一篇演讲向公众公开了。这次公开似乎回应了许多外国人和其他决策者的评论。

What struck me from the article is two things. One is that Xi Jinping doesn't really believe in just spending a whole lot of money just to get them out of this economic slow patch. Now if you look to what the US is doing and many other Western countries, when they had a slow patch, what they would do is they would just print a whole bunch of money and spend it. A couple years ago, for example, in the US, the US government gave a lot of semi-checks. People who are in debt will, let's say, forgive your student loans or at least pause them and the same thing for many mortgages as well. That seems to be the playbook in the West. When you have economic troubles, government just opens up to money printer and just kind of makes it go away.

这篇文章给我留下了两个印象。首先是习近平并不真正相信仅仅为了让经济摆脱低迷而无限制地大量投资。现在如果你看看美国和许多其他西方国家的做法，当他们遇到经济低迷时，他们会无限制地印制大量货币并进行支出。例如，几年前，在美国政府向很多人发放了定期支票。对于那些债务累累的人来说，政府会取消他们的学生贷款，或者至少暂停还款，对许多房贷也一样。这似乎是西方国家的套路。当经济陷入困境时，政府打开印钞机，将问题“消除”掉。

Now President Xi says that we're not going to do that if we have a debt problem. We do, of course, we borrow too much money to buy all this real estate and other investments that aren't working out. If we have a debt problem, the answer is not to do more stimulus. The answer is to tighten your belt. The answer is austerity, which actually is pretty much what your grandparents would have told you and what many Western policymakers would have thought not too long ago. If we recall not too long ago, when we had debt problems in periphery Europe, the answer that the Western governments gave to Greece, for example, is austerity. You have too much debt. The answer is not to spend more money. The answer is to tighten your belt. Spend less.

现在，习主席表示，如果我们有债务问题，我们不会继续这样做。当然，我们确实借了太多钱来购买这些不盈利的房地产和其他投资。如果我们有债务问题，答案不是增加刺激措施。答案是勒紧裤腰带。答案是紧缩政策，这实际上与你的祖父母告诉过你的，以及许多西方政策制定者不久前的想法基本相同。如果我们回想一下不久前，在欧洲的边缘地区出现债务问题时，西方政府给希腊的答案就是紧缩政策。你有太多债务。答案不是花更多钱，而是勒紧裤腰带，减少开支。

Now, it seems like, President Xi thinks that this is important. Otherwise, you just get lazy people. Obviously, this experiment that we're doing, that whenever we have an economic slow-pass, we just spend money rather than tighten our belts, is something that's really new. Maybe it isn't sustainable. Obviously, you just can't keep spending and spending and borrowing and spending forever. He doesn't want to go down that path. Maybe in the long run, he's right. I guess we'll find out. And the second thing that he noted, it was that he doesn't really believe in the Western consumer driven model. That is to say, he doesn't seem to want to transition the Chinese economy to a consumption driven model like it is in the US.

现在，习主席似乎认为这很重要。否则，我们就会养成懒散的习惯。显然，我们正在进行的这个实验是非常新颖的，每当经济放缓时，我们只是花钱而不是节衣缩食。也许这种方式并不可持续。显然，你不能一直花费、借贷和消费下去，永远都不停止。他不想走这条路。也许从长远来看，他是对的。我想我们会找到答案的。第二件他提到的事情是，他并不真正相信西方以消费者为驱动模式。也就是说，他似乎不想将中国经济转变为像美国那样的消费驱动模式。

There seems to be a couple reasons for this. One is that if you, let's say, give people a lot of same checks, you don't actually know what the public would do with that. What if, for example, the Communist Party gave their publics a bunch of money and the public just hoarded it instead of spent it? Well, then that doesn't seem to be that productive for stimulating the economy. Instead, if you give the money to state enterprises, then you have more control over how the money is spent. And maybe that's a better way to simulate the economy if he decides to. Now, there's been some limited stimulus, but I think what they're saying is that there's not going to be the big stimulus that you've seen in the past.

这似乎有几个原因。其中之一是，如果你给人们发很多相同的支票，你并不知道公众会如何使用它们。比如说，如果共产党给他们的公众发了一大笔钱，而公众只是囤积而不是花掉，那么这对刺激经济来说似乎并不那么有效。相反，如果把钱给国有企业，那么你对资金的使用就有更多掌控权。如果他决定的话，这可能是一种更好的模拟经济的方式。现在，已经有一些有限的刺激措施，但我认为他们的意思是不会出现过去那种大规模的刺激措施。

Now, a related point is that maybe the reason, well, one of the reasons why a person she is not so keen on trans, trans, turning into a consumption driven economy is that it also has political economy implications. If you give more money to the public, you're basically giving more economic power to the broader public and to the private businesses as well. And that economic power probably has to come at expense of the state. And if you recall, not too long ago, we had a booming tech sector in China and then the government cracked down on it and sometimes made some important people in the tech sector seemingly disappear. So having a very strong consumer driven economy might be at odds with having a one party state. And so that might be another reason why the Chinese are not keen to transition into a more Western style consumption model.

现在，一个相关的观点是，也许一个人不太热衷于将中国转变为消费驱动型经济的原因之一是，这也具有政治经济学的意义。如果你给公众更多的钱，基本上是把更多的经济权力交给了更广泛的公众和私营企业。而这种经济权力可能是以国家的牺牲为代价的。如果你还记得不久前，中国有着蓬勃发展的科技行业，然后政府对其进行了打压，有时甚至让科技行业的一些重要人士似乎消失了。因此，拥有一个非常强大的消费驱动型经济可能与拥有一党制国家相矛盾。所以这可能是中国不愿转变为更具西方风格的消费模式的另一个原因。

All along, this is to say that many Western commentators may not be looking at this the right way. And so there may not be big China consumption. And what we see, slow modest growth in China, in part due to lack stimulus and big debt overhang like in the case of Japan, might be something that might persist for the coming years.

这么说吧，这意味着许多西方评论家可能没有从正确的角度来看待这个问题。因此，中国的消费可能并不像他们认为的那样大。我们所看到的中国经济缓慢而适度的增长，部分原因是由于缺乏刺激和债务负担沉重，就像日本的情况一样，这种情况可能会持续数年。

Okay, now let's talk about what's happening in the US labor market. So this past week, we had a lot of interesting data on the US labor market. It began with the jolts. The jolts data is something the Fed has been paying attention to. It shows the amount of job openings in the US. Now, if you look at a graph of jolts data, you'll see that job openings available just surged higher post 2020. Everyone was looking all the businesses was working for workers, and they just couldn't find any. But also notice that the jolts data shows a steady decline in job openings.

好的，现在让我们谈谈美国劳动市场的情况。所以在过去的一周，我们对美国劳动市场有了许多有趣的数据。首先是工作岗位开放数（jolts）。美联储一直在关注jolts数据，它显示了美国的就业机会数量。现在，如果你看一下jolts数据的图表，你会发现在2020年以后，可用的工作岗位数量急剧增加。所有的企业都在寻找员工，却找不到合适的人选。但同时请注意，jolts数据显示工作岗位数量在稳步下降。

So the level of openings is still historically high, but it's come down a lot that shows that businesses just don't need as much labor as they did earlier a couple years ago. The big boom, the huge labor shortage that we've been talking about seems to be softening. And that is also, of course, that is also seen in other data. If you look at quits rates, which is another good sign of labor market strength, you'll see that quits rates are basically down to where they were pre pandemic. Now we think of quits rates as a good indicator for labor strength is because when workers have confidence, they just quit their job. They don't like what they're seeing. They just quit their job and they go and they find a better job elsewhere. When a labor market is strong, you would expect quits rates to go up as everyone just goes to look for a better job. Now quits rates has normalized showing that the labor market has also normalized.

因此，职位空缺的水平仍然处于历史高位，但已经大幅下降，这表明企业不再需要像几年前那样多的劳动力。我们一直在谈论的大繁荣、巨大的劳动力短缺似乎正在减缓。当然，这一点也体现在其他数据中。如果您看一下离职率，这是劳动力市场强势的另一个良好指标，您会发现离职率基本回到了疫情前的水平。现在我们认为离职率是劳动力强势的良好指标，是因为当工人有信心时，他们会辞掉工作。他们不喜欢目前的情况。他们会辞职然后去找一个更好的工作。当劳动力市场强势时，您会预期离职率会上升，因为每个人都想找到一份更好的工作。现在离职率已经趋于正常，这表明劳动力市场也已趋于正常化。

Now we had really big important data on Friday. That's a non-farm payroll and it shows also that the labor market seems to be moderating. Now job growth still seems to be pretty strong. 187,000. But what was notable is wage growth has basically softened to about 0.2 percent and also the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8 percent.

现在我们在周五有了非常重要的大数据。这是一个非农就业数据报告，它也显示劳动力市场似乎在逐渐平稳。现在就业增长仍然相当强劲，为18.7万人。但值得注意的是工资增长基本上放缓至0.2%，同时失业率上升至3.8%。

Now when you look at the unemployment rate ticking up, sometimes it's because there's less demand for labor but other times it's because there's more supply in labor. What we're seeing now is labor participation rate ticking up. Even as there seems to be less demand for labor as the available job openings decline, we see that in jolts, there's more and more people looking for a job, so higher labor participation rate.

现在当你看到失业率上升时，有时是因为对劳动力的需求减少，但有时是因为劳动力供应增加。我们现在所看到的是劳动参与率的上升。尽管似乎对劳动力的需求减少，因为可用的工作岗位减少，但我们在工作机会和劳动市场动态调查中看到，越来越多的人正在寻找工作，所以劳动参与率也在增加。

So, you know, a lot of you take this thing you look at it and it suggests soft landing. More people coming to work, increase in supply of labor, and a slight decrease in demand in labor. This also suggests that economic growth will continue to be strong because the supply of labor is increasing. And if you have more people working, obviously as an economy, you'll continue to grow.

所以，你们知道，很多人看到这个，它表明会有一个温和的就业市场。更多的人进入工作岗位，劳动力供应增加，而劳动力需求略微下降。这也表明经济增长将继续强劲，因为劳动力供应正在增加。如果有更多的人在工作，显然作为经济体，你将继续增长。

This also makes the Fed's job a lot easier as well. As we have more people participating in labor force, wages are probably going to come down a bit and that suggests from the Fed's perspective that we could have inflation come down smoothly. Now, I still think we'll probably have one rate hike before the end of the year simply because the economy continues to grow very strongly. But that's not necessarily true. And in any case, it does suggest that at most, based on what we see today and data could change, the Fed is really, really close to being done with their hikes and they would probably start cutting sometime in the second quarter of next year because inflation has come down.

这也使得美联储的工作变得更加容易。随着更多人参与劳动力市场，工资可能会有所下降，这从美联储的角度来看意味着通胀可能会平稳下降。现在，我仍然认为我们可能会在年底之前进行一次加息，原因是经济继续强劲增长。但这不一定是真的。无论如何，根据我们今天所见，数据可能会发生变化，最多也就是暂停加息，而且他们可能会在明年第二季度开始削减利率，因为通胀已经下降了。

Okay, and the last thing we'll talk about is the dollar. Now, if you look at the US dollar index, you note that it strengthened significantly last year, then it came down this year. It looks like it looked like it was breaking down, not too long ago, but now it seems to have stabilized and it's hitting resistance at a key level. So what's happening with the dollar?

好的，我们最后要谈的是美元。现在，如果你看一下美元指数，你会注意到它去年大幅增强，然后今年又回落了。它似乎曾经在不久前走势疲软，但现在似乎已经稳定下来，并且在一个关键水平位上遇到了阻力。那么，美元发生了什么？

So my view was always that the dollar was going to strengthen significantly going forward based on what I understand how monetary policy works. So, throughout the Western world, we have a big inflation problem. So everyone is hiking interest rates.

所以，根据我对货币政策的理解，我的观点一直是美元在未来会大幅度上涨。现在，整个西方世界都存在着严重的通胀问题，因此每个国家都在提高利率。

Now, here's the thing. The effectiveness of interest rates depends on how your financial system works. For example, in Canada, you hike interest rates and then over time, a lot of the people have mortgages that are renewed basically every five years. So when you hike interest rates very, very soon, okay, within five years, you have people who have to renew their mortgages and start paying higher interest rates on their mortgage mortgages. And that's going to impact their spending and that's going to slow the economy down. And of course, the Canadian economy, real estate is a big part of it.

现在，有一件事要说。利率的有效性取决于你的金融体系的运作方式。例如，在加拿大，你提高利率，然后随着时间的推移，很多人的抵押贷款基本上每五年续签一次。所以当你很快提高利率，就在五年内，你有人们必须续签抵押贷款并开始支付更高利率的情况。这将影响他们的花费并减缓经济增长。当然，加拿大的经济，房地产是其中重要的一部分。

In contrast, in the US, you can raise interest rates. And from the consumer side, well, everyone is locked into 30 year mortgages. And so they're not really that much affected. At the same time, of course, there's a lot of other things happening, but that's one thing as well.

相比之下，在美国，你可以提高利率。而且从消费者的角度来看，嗯，每个人都被困在30年的按揭贷款中。所以他们并没有受到很大的影响。同时，当然还有很多其他的事情发生，但这也是其中之一。

Now, if you look at the Eurozone, they have something like what's happening in the Canadian economy. Some of Eurozone countries have shouldered mortgages, but they also have a lot of other things going on as well. For example, their financial system is a lot more bank dependent. So when you hike rates, one of the things that happens is that banks lend less money. Part of it is because banks are worried that, you know, insurance have gone up. They don't want to lend money to someone who won't be able to pay the loan back, but also, of course, this less demand. And no one wants to fewer people want to borrow when interest rates are higher. So that's the banking channel. In Europe, almost all the loans are made by banks. The banking sector is the private predominant provider of financing. That's not the case in the US, where the largest provider of financing is actually the capital markets. So when the banking sector is not lending, that doesn't have as big an impact on financing in the US because the capital markets are still open. If you're Google, if you're Apple, or if you're in a large corporation, you can still show up in the bond market and issue debt.

现在，如果你看看欧元区，他们有一些类似于加拿大经济正在发生的事情。欧元区的一些国家承担了抵押贷款，但他们还有许多其他事情在进行中。例如，他们的金融体系更加依赖银行。所以当你提高利率时，其中一件事情发生的是银行放贷减少。部分原因是银行担心保险费上涨。他们不愿意将钱借给无法偿还贷款的人，当然也有需求减少的问题。当利率较高时，很少有人愿意借钱。这就是银行渠道。在欧洲，几乎所有的贷款都是由银行提供的。银行业是私人融资的主要提供者。但在美国不是这样，美国最大的融资提供者实际上是资本市场。所以当银行业不再放贷时，对美国的融资影响不会那么大，因为资本市场仍然开放。如果你是谷歌，如果你是苹果，或者如果你是一个大公司，你仍然可以在债券市场出现并发行债务。

So, when the Fed raises rates, if you're in the Eurozone, it really cramps your financing in the US a lot less so. And we're seeing that play out finally. So this past week, we had data from Canada showing that, well, the Canadian economy appears to be shrinking. So they had negative growth of about 0.2%.

因此，当美联储加息时，如果你在欧元区，它对你在美国的融资带来的影响要小得多。我们最终看到了这一点。所以在过去的一周里，加拿大的数据显示，加拿大经济似乎在萎缩。他们的负增长率约为0.2%。

The markets saw that and immediately began to price out a rate hike from the peak of Canada, thinking that as the economy there goes into recession, maybe the bank of Canada has done hiking, maybe they start cutting. Now, if you look at the Eurozone, of course, not only do they have credit drying up, but they are also hit with a big energy shock, which has in some ways received it, but in other ways, not fully.

市场看到这一点并立即开始将加拿大央行的加息状况排除在外，他们认为随着该国经济陷入衰退，央行可能会停止加息甚至开始降息。现在，如果我们看欧元区的情况，他们不仅面临着信贷紧缩，还遭受了一次大规模能源冲击，这在某种程度上是有所缓解的，但在其他方面并没有完全得到消化。

Now, there's some interesting data from the ECV showing that for industries in the Eurozone, those that are highly sensitive energy, well, they are still not doing all that well. So you have a double whammy of high interest rates, but also this energy problem there, and it's finally, finally, feeding through, and it seems to be impacting their economy meaningfully. Now, if you look at their PMI data, now PMIs have not been a great indicator of the cycle, but just to reference, looking at their PMI data, it's been trending towards pretty dire situations.

现在，ECV（欧元区职业组织）提供的一些有趣的数据表明，对于高度依赖能源的行业来说，并不是所有的行业都表现得很好。因此，你们不仅面临着高利率的双重打击，还有能源问题，而这些问题最终开始对经济产生实质性的影响。如果你们看一下他们的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据，虽然PMI并不是一个很好的周期指标，但是可以作为参考，可以看到他们的PMI数据一直趋向于相当可怕的情况。

And if that persists, you can also see that the ECB stop hiking and maybe move into cutting mode. Now, what stands out among all this, of course, is the US. The economy continues to grow strongly and the Fed is still content with the one rate hike.

如果这种情况持续下去，你可以看到欧洲央行可能会停止加息，并转向降息模式。现在，在所有这些中，最引人注目的当然是美国。美国经济持续强劲增长，而美联储仍然满足于一次加息。

Monastery policy simply is not as effective in the US as it is in other countries. So going forward, I'd expect this differential between the US and other countries to widen. And that in my view is a strong tailwind for the dollar, and I would not be surprised to see it continue to strengthen in the coming months.

在美国，修道院政策并不像在其他国家那样有效。因此，我预计未来美国与其他国家之间的差距将会扩大。在我看来，这对美元来说是一个强劲的助推力，我不会对未来几个月它继续走强感到惊讶。

Okay, now that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for joining. If you're interested, please check out my blog, FedDag.com for latest thoughts on markets. And if you're interested in learning more on how to understand markets, check out my courses at centralbanking101.com. Thanks so much and talk to you guys next week.

好的，现在我准备的都讲完了。非常感谢大家的参与。如果你们感兴趣，请关注我的博客FedDag.com，了解最新的市场动态。如果你们对如何理解市场有进一步的学习兴趣，请查看我在centralbanking101.com上的课程。非常感谢大家，下周再见！