China Prepares for War: A Timeline - YouTube
发布时间 2023-07-11 16:00:00 来源
I'm the director of the China Center here at the Hasei Institute. And again, thank you for coming to this event. We're very blessed by the centrality of the China topic in Washington, D.C., because everybody's talking about the challenge we're facing. And we frequently have good speakers with great credentials and great insights, and today is no exception. And China Center, let me just say a few words. China Center is a center here affiliated with Hasei Institute. We have the advisory board chaired by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And the board consists of a few great individuals. And Kyle, our speaker, just joined the board, and welcome, Kyle. Thank you very much. Thank you, Ma.
我是哈西学院中国中心的主任。再次感谢你参加这个活动。在华盛顿中心地带，中国议题备受关注，因为每个人都在谈论我们所面临的挑战。我们经常有具有出色资历和深刻见解的优秀演讲者，今天也不例外。中国中心是与哈西学院有关的一个中心。我们的顾问委员会由前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥担任主席，委员会成员包括几位杰出的个人。我们的演讲者凯尔刚刚加入了委员会，欢迎你，凯尔。非常感谢你，马先生。
And one of the important board members is here, that's Paula Dobranski, who is an ambassador, Paula. And the advisory board also consists, of course, of Scott Morrison, former Prime Minister of Australia, as well as Morgan Ortega, former spokesperson at the State Department. It was a former colleague of mine.
有一位重要的董事会成员在这里，那就是保拉•多布兰斯基，她是一位大使，保拉。而咨询委员会当然还包括澳大利亚前总理斯科特•莫里森，以及前国务院发言人摩根•奥尔特加。奥尔特加是我的前同事。
So, today's speaker is probably the smartest private equity manager in the country. Not only because he is a big capitalist, he's also a very responsible capitalist. He's also an environmental conservative. What is it? Environmental conservation. That's correct. So, it's bridged the gap between the left and right, so both topics very good. Most importantly, he's a tremendous insight into the financial world and how China factors in, from the financial, from the economic point of view, which is something that we really, really needs. He's a member of the lifetime member of the Council of Foreign Relations. And he has taken great interest in international affairs, and he's truly the intercontinental person, not only Europe, but also Asia. And so, from that perspective, so we're very pleased to have him as a speaker today. And let's see his full biography from our website at tussing.org.
所以，今天的演讲者很可能是这个国家最聪明的私募股权经理。不仅因为他是一个大资本家，也因为他是一个非常负责任的资本家。他也是一个环境保护主义者。什么是环境保护？没错。所以，这弥合了左派和右派之间的鸿沟，所以两个议题都非常好。最重要的是，他对金融世界有着非凡的洞察力，以及中国在金融和经济角度上的影响，这正是我们非常需要的。他是外交关系委员会的终身会员，并对国际事务表现出浓厚的兴趣，他真正是一个洲际的人，不仅仅是欧洲，还有亚洲。因此，从这个角度来看，我们非常高兴今天能够邀请他来演讲。您可以在我们的网站tussing.org上了解他的详细传记。
So, without further ado, and I'm going to, oh, before I say that, so today, Kyle is going to speak on the topic that we're all very concerned about. And then we'll be followed by a question and answer session to be moderated by Ambassador Dopranzky. And after that, we have a reception. So, the drinks are all on us. With our further ado, Kyle, please.
所以，话不多说，在我说之前，今天Kyle要讲一个我们都非常关心的话题。接着我们将进行问题和答案环节，由Dopranzky大使主持。之后我们有一个招待会。所以，酒水全由我们提供。废话不多说，Kyle，请开始。
Thank you. Thank you, Miles. Thank you. We may need a drink after this. It's a pleasure to be here. Thank you, Miles. Thank you, Paula, and the Hudson Center for having me. It's a life's passion of mine after studying financial markets, global macro flows, and trying to understand the world works financially, how it, of course, without a doubt, interfaces geopolitically. So, I'll get through what I want to say as quickly as I can. I'd love to interface with the audience as soon as I get finished. But this topic, I think, is central and vital to the national security of our nation and what we're facing today.
谢谢你。谢谢你，Miles。谢谢你。在这之后我们可能需要喝一杯。能够来到这里真是一种荣幸。非常感谢你，Miles。非常感谢你，Paula，以及哈德逊中心邀请我来这里。我在研究金融市场、全球宏观流动，并试图理解金融世界如何运作、与地缘政治有着紧密联系后，这成为我一生的热爱。所以，我会尽快完成我要说的话。一旦说完，我希望能够与观众展开互动。但是，我认为这个主题对于我们国家的国家安全至关重要，也是我们今天所面临的挑战。
I'm going to just let you know how this came about. We got out of whiteboard. And I know we all live in this world where we read all of the press, and the press catches things, and the press particularly doesn't catch things that Xi Jinping says in his speeches and in his written text. So, we spend a lot of time developing our own view of exactly what she's saying, and I'm going to cover very specific things that he said, and not necessarily what our press runs with. And I think that's a big gap there, and hopefully I can help bridge that gap.
我将告诉你们这是如何发生的。我们在白板上讨论了一下。我知道我们都生活在一个读新闻的世界，新闻媒体捕捉到了一些内容，但很少报道习近平在演讲和书面文本中所说的内容。因此，我们花了很多时间来发展我们自己对他所说内容的理解，我将详细介绍他所说的一些具体内容，并不一定与我们的新闻报道一致。我认为这其中存在着很大的差距，希望我的讲解能够填补这个差距。
So, when I think about what's going on and what Xi has said, you just look at the bottom of this slide. At the end of the 20th Party Congress in the working papers, he said, we must strengthen our sense of worry, adhere to the bottom line thinking, which means party thinking, of course. Prepare for danger in times of peace, and prepare to undergo high winds and waves, and even for the stormy seas of a major test. I think that's a pretty ominous statement to be making at the end of the 20th Party Congress.
所以，当我思考当前的情况以及习所说的话时，你只需要看一下这张幻灯片的底部。在第20次党代会的工作文件中，他说道，我们必须增强我们的忧患意识，坚持底线思维，当然这是指党的思维。在和平时期时时准备危险，甚至为了面对强风巨浪、甚至是严峻考验作好充分准备。我认为这是在第20次党代会结束时发表一种相当不祥的声明。
Today, I'm just going to talk about this in three different buckets. If you were thinking about Xi Jinping, if he were preparing for war with Taiwan, I like to separate into three thoughts. The first thought is the forced thought, the militaristic thought. What's he doing with his military that might suggest that either building up, moving it around, what's happening, and of course, that's not my core area of expertise. I interfaced with the top levels of US military. I'm building the section. That will go quick.
今天，我只是打算用三个不同的角度来谈论这件事。如果你正在思考习近平是否准备与台湾开战，我想把它分为三个思考。第一个是强迫性思考，军事思考。他在军事方面做了什么可能表明他是在加强军队，调动军队，发生了什么，当然，这不是我核心专长领域。我与美国军方的高层有过接触，我正在建立一个相关部分，这将进展迅速。
The second section is, what is China doing on the mainland? What are they doing inside of China on their mainland in their legal system? What are they doing in building specific things if they were about to go to war? What would they be building on shore? And then what are they doing from a policy perspective on the mainland? That's the second bucket.
第二部分是，中国在中国大陆上做了什么？他们在自己的法律体系内在中国内部做了些什么？如果他们准备发动战争，他们在岸上会建造什么特定的设施？然后从政策角度来看，他们在大陆上做了些什么？这就是第二个方面。
The third bucket is where my primary expertise is, but the middle bucket is also vitally important. And that's what would China be doing to insulate themselves from severe financial sanctions? In the event that they move on Taiwan, when Putin moved on invaded Ukraine, we supposedly went through with some really strong sanctions. Those sanctions were like Swiss cheese. We really didn't hurt him at all. In this case, I think we will be able to execute much more crippling sanctions in the event that China invades Taiwan. And I'm going to talk about what China is doing that actually doesn't make financial sense. If you and I were running a sovereign and we were running it to, let's say, operate in the highest regard of our capital and returns on capital, we would be making specific decisions. What I'm going to show you today is China is not making those decisions. They're making decisions that are non-economic and preparing themselves for sanctions. So I'm going to walk through those three buckets.
第三个问题是我主要的专业领域，但中间的问题也是非常重要的。那就是中国将如何采取措施来使自己免受严厉的金融制裁? 如果他们对台湾采取行动，当普京入侵乌克兰时，我们据称进行了一些非常严厉的制裁。这些制裁就像瑞士奶酪一样，我们并没有真正伤害到他。在这种情况下，我认为在中国入侵台湾的情况下，我们将能够执行更具破坏性的制裁。我将谈谈中国正在做一些在财务上没有意义的事情。如果你和我经营一个主权国家，并且以我们资本和资本回报的最高标准进行运营，我们将做出具体决策。我今天要向你展示的是，中国并没有做出这些决策。他们正在做出非经济性的决策，并且为制裁做好准备。所以我将逐个解释这三个问题。
The first one is the liberation that PLA's required readiness simulations. We believe there are three simulations that have to take place before Xi Jinping and the Central Military Commission will authorize a strike on Taiwan. The first one happened in August of 22, Operation Joint Fire Strike. The second Operation Joint Sword just happened in April of 23. The final one that hasn't happened yet is an amphibious assault timing TBD. And I'll get into when we think we as a country think that timing can happen.
第一个是解放军所要求的准备模拟的解放。我们相信，在习近平和中央军委授权对台湾发动打击之前，必须进行三次模拟。第一次模拟发生在22年的8月，名为“联合火力打击行动”。第二次模拟“联合利剑行动”刚刚在23年的4月进行。最后一次尚未发生，这是一个待定的水陆两栖进攻时机。我将阐述我们作为一个国家认为何时可能发生这种时机。
The first one was a 10-day exercise, of course, immediately after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, where the Chinese launched 11 ballistic missiles to simulate the neutralization of Taiwan's air defense systems, multiplying ice submarine attacks and sea raids as part of China's furious response to the provocation of the separatist elements of the external forces. That was their words, not mine. And then subsequently to that particular exercise, the China's Taiwan Affairs Office released its first white paper in Taiwan in over 20 years. There was something really important in there. They said that the new policy document did away with the past promises and troops or, quote, administrators to Taiwan if China successfully conquers the island. Definitely another ominous sign.
第一个演习是在佩洛西访问台湾后立即进行的为期10天的活动。在这个演习中，中国发射了11枚弹道导弹，模拟对台湾的防空系统进行中和，并进行了多次冰下潜艇突袭和海上袭击，作为对分裂势力挑衅的愤怒回应。这是他们的话，不是我的话。紧接着这次演习，中国台湾事务办公室发布了首份自20年来在台湾的白皮书。其中有一些非常重要的内容。他们表示，新的政策文件废除了过去有关如果中国成功征服台湾就会派遣军队或“管理者”的承诺。这绝对是另一个不祥之兆。
The second operation was Joint Sword, which, of course, began the day after Sienwen's trip to America. It happened April 8 through the 10th. And this one was a much more, let's just say, integrated exercise where there were two phases. One was an immediate deployment of forces. The second one was rapid seizure of all domains for control, air, sea, and information to gain what one of their senior colonel said was to gain an extremely advantageous position at the outset. What we have learned, China has learned from Putin's mistakes in Ukraine, is, number one, Xi knows that he can't telegraph the move like Putin did. Putin did a lot of things to telegraph when his invasion was happening. We don't believe Xi will do that.
第二次行动是联合之剑行动，在赛恩温的美国之行之后立即展开。它发生在4月8日至10日。这次行动相比之前更为综合，其中有两个阶段。第一个是部队的立即部署，第二个是迅速夺取控制所有领域，包括空中、海上和信息领域，以获取一个高度有利的起点位置，正如他们的一位高级上校所说的。我们从普京在乌克兰的错误中学到的是，中国知道他不能像普京那样事先透露动作。普京在入侵乌克兰时做了很多事情来暗示他的行动。我们不认为习近平会这样做。
The second thing is, is battlefield control and domains for control are vital to China's attack if and when they attack Taiwan. And information control is key. If you look through a lot of the Communist Party rhetoric and at the schools, the Communist Party schools, the professors are all talking about the need for the cessation of data flows between Taiwan and the rest of the world. And we're going to get into that and what's going on on the mainland today, but they stress this and this exercise. It's stressed speed and agility, but most importantly, control of data, which resonates throughout this presentation.
第二件事是，战场控制和对控制区域的掌控对于中国攻击台湾的成功至关重要。信息控制是关键。如果你浏览很多共产党的言论以及在共产党学校的教授们的讲话，他们都在谈论需要切断台湾与世界其他地区之间的数据流。我们将详细讨论这一点以及现今在大陆上发生的情况，但他们强调了这一点并进行了相关的演习。这一演习强调了速度和敏捷，但更重要的是对数据的控制，这一点贯穿了整个演示。
Prior to just prior to joint sword, the PLA severed the undersea fiber optic cables between Taiwan and Matsu Island. And you know where those are up on the just north, just northwest of Taiwan closer to Fuzhan. Lee, professor of Beijing's Communist Party school, said this in quotes, we need to reunify with Taiwan as soon as possible with our overwhelming troops and firepower simultaneously it demands cutting off water, electricity and mobile phones throughout the island. Electricity, water and mobile phones can all be reconnected once they're liberated, but we must disconnect in areas the PLA is not liberated, particularly mobile phones.
在共同武器部署之前，解放军切断了台湾和马祖岛之间的海底光缆。而你也知道，那些光缆位于台湾的正北方，接近福州的正西北方。北京党校教授李先生说了一段话，他说我们需要尽快用我们压倒性的军力和火力统一台湾，同时要求切断整个岛上的水、电和手机服务。水、电和手机服务一旦解放后都可以重新连接，但我们必须在解放军尚未解放的地区断开，尤其是手机服务。
If you remember, China was really struggling with the protest in Hong Kong, and the reason they couldn't roll in there with the tanks and handle things the way they wanted to handle things is there was so much connectivity, there were so many phones, and the world would see the disaster that they would be, the humanitarian disaster they would be affecting on the people of Hong Kong.
如果你还记得，中国在香港抗议活动中面临着巨大的困难。他们无法以他们希望的方式介入并解决问题的原因在于这里有着广泛的互联互通，很多人使用手机，全世界都会看到他们行动所带来的灾难，他们会给香港人民带来人道主义的灾难。
So when we get to amphibious assault, this will simulate an amphibious evasion. Naval experts believe there are only three months in the calendar that allow for this assault, and those are April, May and August.
当我们进行两栖突击时，这将模拟一次两栖逃避。海军专家认为，只有四月、五月和八月这三个月份适合进行这种突击。
For those of you that have studied Normandy and the Allied invasion there, there were very specific conditions that had to be present for that invasion to be able to happen. The tides had to be at a certain level, the currents couldn't be as strong as they are in certain periods of the year. This is even more challenging. This is a 110-mile gap. It has 20-foot tidal surges, and there are three miles of mud bogs. So this attack will have to be at very specific times.
对于那些研究诺曼底和盟军入侵的人来说，那次入侵能够发生必须满足非常具体的条件。潮水必须达到特定水平，洋流不能像一年中的某些时期那样强大。这次更具挑战性。这是一个110英里的缺口，有20英尺的潮汐浪涌，并且有三英里的泥地沼泽。因此，这次攻击必须在非常特定的时间进行。
Again, we think it can only happen in April, May or August, roughly, for them to basically bring all three of those simulations to life, and especially with the amphibious side. Once they give this particular, once they execute an amphibious assault, then we believe, our military believes they'll be ready to give a go order. Again, this is the fourth side of the bucket.
我们认为，他们只能在大约4月、5月或8月这样的时间将这三个模拟情景基本上变为现实，尤其是涉及水陆两栖方面。一旦他们执行了这次特殊的水陆突击，我们军方相信他们将准备好发出行动指令。再次强调，这是桶的第四面。
Let's move straight into the mainland preparations for war and a timeline. This is vital, again, to getting out a whiteboard, putting some things on the whiteboard to understand the logical progression of what China has done to change their legal system, to change things on the mainland to prepare for war.
我们直接进入内地的战争准备和时间安排吧。这是至关重要的，再次强调，我们要拿出一个白板，把一些内容放在上面，以了解中国已经采取了哪些行动来改变他们的法律体系，改变内地的一些事物以准备战争。
In January of 2020, China updated its foreign investment law, which gave Beijing the power and ability to nationalize foreign assets investments under special circumstances, which include war. Their words not mine.
2020年1月，中国更新了其对外投资法，在特殊情况下（包括战争），赋予北京方面将外国资产投资国有化的权力和能力。这是他们的说法，不是我的。
Very important to know that they updated a law that gave Beijing the authority to just nationalize things and take them. We saw that happen in arm holdings for those of you that followed what happened to arm.
很重要的是要知道他们更新了一项法律，赋予北京以权力将事物国有化并夺走它们。对于那些关注了英国ARM股份有限公司（Arm Holdings）遭遇的人来说，我们看到过类似的情况发生。
June 2021, China issued a or passed a new counter-foreign sanctions law, which enabled Beijing to seize corporate assets and detain expat employees. Simply, if they underline condition was compliance with foreign sanctions, i.e. if the US or Europe sanctioned China and the corporations of the US or Europe were supplying with their own sanctions, China could nationalize the assets and detain the people.
2021年6月，中国发布了一项新的反制外国制裁法，使北京能够没收企业资产并拘留外国雇员。简单来说，如果它们违反了外国制裁条件，例如如果美国或欧洲对中国实施制裁且美国或欧洲的企业继续供应产品违反了自己的制裁规定，中国可以将这些资产国有化并拘留相关人员。
April 2023, Chinese lawmakers passed a wide ranging update to their anti-espionage law, which I'm sure we all saw, banning the transfer of any information related to national security and broadening that definition of what national security information could be. And we're going to get into the raids of the various US companies since then.
2023年4月，中国立法者通过了一项广泛更新的反间谍法案，我相信大家都已经看到了。该法案禁止传输任何与国家安全相关的信息，并扩大了国家安全信息的定义。接下来我们将详细讨论自那以后，针对各个美国公司的搜查行动。
Just recently, in fact, last month, China passed a sweeping foreign policy law that represented a much broader extension of that counter-foreign sanctions law that created obligations and responsibilities for Chinese companies, which essentially make all Chinese companies extension of the Chinese government. It gives Beijing the legal authority to seize individuals assets and prevent them from leaving China.
就在最近，事实上，就在上个月，中国通过了一项全面的外交政策法，这项法律代表着对外国制裁法的进一步扩展，该法律对中国企业产生了义务和责任，实际上使所有中国企业成为中国政府的延伸。它赋予北京合法权力来查封个人资产并阻止他们离开中国。
The new law coupled with the anti-espionage law makes it virtually impossible for foreign companies to operate safely in the PRC. The last thing is they plan to roll out a new law that will push patriotic education. I should have put that in quotes for Internet users, school, children, and overseas Chinese. That was just submitted.
新的法律与反间谍法相结合，几乎使得外国公司在中国操作安全变得几乎不可能。最后一件事是他们计划推出一项新的法律，将推动爱国主义教育。我应该为互联网用户、学校、儿童和海外华人加上引号。这刚刚提交了。
Physical structures, power systems, and the new blood drive. March of 2023 in Fuzhan, China's building 18 new air raid shelters, which the province announced and showcased on its website. And two days later, gone, took it off the website, never to be seen again. So, Fuzhan was very proud of these 18 air raid shelters. For those of you that know the geography of China, that is across the street from Taiwan. They geo-blocked it, and we can't find it anymore, but we have screen grabs of it.
物理结构，电力系统和新的义务献血活动。2023年3月，中国福建省在其官网上宣布并展示了建设18个新的防空洞。然而，两天后，这些信息就被撤下了网站，再也无法找到。所以，福建对这18个防空洞非常自豪。对于了解中国地理的人来说，福建位于离台湾不远的地方。他们使用了地理封锁，我们无法再找到这些信息，但我们还保留了截图。
March 2023, they're building the world's largest combat hospital, also geo-blocked after one day of announced on a website. So, if you're building 18 air raid shelters along the Fuzhan coast, you're building a combat hospital. This rhymes with what Putin was doing. If you remember, he moved entire groups, brigades of troops in October. He started building and transferring blood banks to the border December, January. He was telling you what was coming. It's happening again, and we need to pay attention.
2023年3月，他们正在建设世界上最大的战斗医院，在网站宣布仅一天后就启动了地理阻止。因此，如果您沿着福展海岸线建造18个防空洞，那就是在建设一家战斗医院。这与普京所做的事情相呼应。如果你还记得，他在十月份调动了整个部队、旅团。他从12月到1月开始修建并转移血库到边境。他给你们传达了即将发生的事情。同样的情况正在再次发生，我们需要注意。
In June 2023, China states its first ever emergency drill to ensure it can handle large-scale power outages in its eastern region. Happens to be the region right across from the Taiwan Strait. It's the first time the National Energy Administration has held an emergency drill for large-scale power outages across provinces and region. It's also the largest, most extensive, most targeted joint emergency power drill.
2023年6月，中国首次举行紧急演习，以确保其能够应对东部地区大规模停电情况。恰好这个地区位于台湾海峡的对面。这是国家能源局首次就跨省和地区范围的大规模停电举行紧急演习。这也是规模最大、最广泛、最有针对性的联合紧急电力演习。
In June 2023, millions of people have been banned from traveling by planar train, and the Communist Party announced that the reason that was is their social credit scores were too low.
到2023年6月，数百万人被禁止乘坐飞机列车旅行，共产党宣布此举的原因是因为这些人的社会信用分数过低。
One way that they can increase their social credit scores go give some blood. That's super interesting. Go give blood to bring that social credit score up. I think as a standalone comment, it's not as interesting, but putting it into a timeline like this, it shows you the methodical thought process of the Communist Party and what they're actually putting together.
他们可以通过献血来提高社会信用分数，这非常有趣。去献血可以提升社会信用分数。我认为独立评论时可能没那么有趣，但把它放在时间线上，就能展现出中国共产党的系统思维和他们正在构建的东西。
Zee's communiques to the Politburo Central Committee and the Communist Party writ large.
齐的通讯给中央政治局和整个共产党的表达方式。
这句话意思是，齐向中央政治局和整个共产党传递信息的方式。
In January of 2022, the Communist Party's journal, Kishi, published, she's secret speech 60 days roughly after it was given. And for the first time, she himself was quoted as saying he called for the struggle against hostile forces. We all know he never names the United States in these speeches, but we are deemed to be the hostile forces.
2022年1月，中国共产党的刊物《纪事》在大约60天后刊登了杨希的秘密讲话。而且这是他首次被引述称呼对敌斗争。我们都知道他在这些讲话中从不点名美国，但我们被视为敌对势力。
I don't think we're the strategic competitor that the press writes about. We are a hostile force.
我不认为我们是媒体所报道的战略竞争对手。我们是敌对势力。
In May 2022, she ordered the Chinese banking system to risk assess and insulate against quote potential severe US sanctions. Well, what would precipitate severe US sanctions? We are sending our foreign policy staff there with knee pads begging for meetings. Those are just begging for more meetings. What would change the Biden administration's tact to want us to or force us to install or instill crippling sanctions? In my view, it would only be a militaristic move on Taiwan.
2022年5月，她下令对中国银行系统进行风险评估，并采取措施以防范可能的美国严厉制裁。那么，是什么会引发严厉的美国制裁呢？我们派遣我们的外交政策人员去那里，苦苦乞求会议。这只会引来更多的会议。是什么会使拜登政府改变策略，想要或迫使我们实施毁灭性的制裁？在我看来，唯一可能的情况就是针对台湾的军事行动。
In May 2022, she also ordered Chinese nationals overseas to divest their assets and repatriate foreign capital back to China. I'm going to get into why that's very important too.
在2022年5月，她还下令海外华人抛售他们的资产，并将外资资金汇回中国。接下来我将详细解释为什么这一点非常重要。
June of 2022, in a page right out of Putin's playbook, she announced a trial plan outline to classify military operations against Taiwan to be classified as quote armed forces operations, not a war. And I remember it was just a joint military exercise.
在2022年6月，她采用普京的手法，宣布了一项试验性计划大纲，将针对台湾的军事行动归类为“武装部队行动”，而非战争。我还记得当时它只是一次联合军事演习。
October 2022, the 20th party Congress, she said to the Communist Party and working papers. I just went over this in the beginning, prepared to undergo high winds, waves, and even for stormy seas of a major test. And also at the 20th party Congress on Taiwan specifically, he said, we will never promise to give up the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary measures.
2022年10月，她对共产党和工作文件说：“我刚刚在一开始就概述了这一点，准备好经受高风、大浪，甚至是暴风骤雨的重大考验。而且在第20次党代会上，针对台湾问题，他表示，我们绝不会承诺放弃使用武力，并保留采取一切必要措施的选项。”
October 2022, he also ratcheted his rhetoric regarding Taiwan by changing what he views as something that authorities, sorry, the authorizes China's use of force. He declared that a simple refusal of China's overtures to reunify would then be grounds for an invasion. Prior to this, it was someone in China in Taiwan's cabinet or presidency would have to formally declare they want to be independent. And that's just if you just refuse our overture, we can come attack. Again, the ratchet has only moved one way.
2022年10月，他在台湾问题上也加大了言辞，改变了他认为是中国使用武力的理由。他宣称，对中国重新统一的提议简单地拒绝，就成为入侵的理由。在此之前，仅当台湾的内阁或总统正式宣布他们要独立时，才可能发生此事。而现在，只要拒绝我们的提议，我们就可以进行攻击。可以看出，局势只朝着一种方向发展。
We remember how she humiliated Hu Jintao and his loyalists removed him from the party and installed a wartime cabinet. What the press missed in the Hu Jintao humiliation was in one day, imagine if we woke up here in America, one day you woke up and they said Janet Yellen is gone. The central bank president Jerome Powell is gone. And Gary Gensler is gone. So we're going to fire the head of the SEC, the head of the Fed, all in one day. And we're going to replace them with the head of the missile unit. We're going to replace them with the head of nuclear munitions and then the head of all conventional munitions. That is removing every market technocrat that was responsible for China's supposed westernization and dealing with markets and replacing them with military people. So the press kind of missed that. I thought that was really important. All they caught was they were ripping Hu Jintao out of his seat and it was a humiliation.
我们记得她如何羞辱胡锦涛，他的忠诚者将他撤出党内，安排了一支战时内阁。在胡锦涛受辱事件中，媒体忽略了一点，就是想象一下，如果我们在美国的一天醒来，你醒来后他们说珍妮特·耶伦离职了，中央银行行长杰罗姆·鲍威尔也离职了，而加里·根斯勒也离职了。所以我们要解雇证券交易委员会主席、美联储主席，所有这些一天内全部换成导弹部队负责人，然后换成核武器负责人，最后换成所有常规武器负责人。这样做等于将负责中国所谓的西化和市场处理的所有市场技术官员全部撤换成军方人士。所以媒体有点忽视了这一点。我觉得这一点非常重要。他们只看到他们把胡锦涛从座位上揪了下来，是一种侮辱。
Third, also she states that China is now laser focused, quote, on the reacquisition of the Taiwanese separatists. Again, his rhetoric is becoming more bellicose. Every speech he's given since 2017, he tells you what he's going to do. And it's just getting worse and worse and worse in his words.
第三，她还表示中国现在将全部精力放在重新收回台湾分离主义者上。同样，他的言辞越来越好战。自从2017年以来，他发表的每次演讲都告诉你他将要做什么。而且他的措辞越来越糟糕。
In the two sessions, three speeches, the markets expected those speeches at two sessions to be further stimulative about restarting the Chinese economic economy and moving things forward. All three speeches, she told the people of China to prepare for war. The press here focused on the very first 15 minutes where Lee Kang attempted to calm investment markets and attract additional western capital. But then once he sat down, Xi Jinping took over and said, we need to prepare for war. And he said it in three separate speeches.
在两会期间的三次讲话中，市场预期这些讲话将进一步刺激中国经济的重启和推动事务的进行。而在这三次讲话中，她告诉中国人民要准备战争。这里的媒体非常关注李康在最初的15分钟试图稳定投资市场并吸引更多西方资本的举动。但是一旦他结束了讲话坐下，习近平接过话头并表示我们需要准备战争。他在三次独立的讲话中都提到了这一点。
All right, so we're going to get in now to the financial market movements, changes in their data policies, bond defaults, corporate raids, and wartime planning for natural resources. These are things that they're doing in the financial markets and as outshoots to those the commodity markets.
好的，现在我们将会讨论一下金融市场的运动、数据政策变化、债券违约、企业收购行动以及战时自然资源规划。这些是他们在金融市场上进行的活动，以及与之相关的大宗商品市场的衍生活动。
So Xi watched as the western world moved immediately to try to seize Putin's 360 billion in FX reserves. We're not sure how much the West was able to actually freeze with Putin, but we immediately went to freeze as FX reserves. What we should have done is immediately sanctioned all their banks, hold them off the swift system, and sanctioned their energy business, which we were all too much afraid to do.
习主席目睹了西方世界迅速试图冻结普京3600亿美元的外汇储备。我们不确定西方国家实际上冻结了多少与普京有关的资金，但我们立即采取了冻结外汇储备的行动。我们本应立即对俄罗斯的银行实施制裁，暂停其在国际金融交易系统中的参与，并对其能源业实施制裁，但我们对此都太过畏惧。
But that rhymes with what happened with Mussolini and data. If you remember, UK and France got together and they had the same kind of peace through weakness ideology back then. And they said, we're going to sanction Mussolini. And Mussolini said, if you sanction my energy or my food, that's an act of war. So they said, we can't do that. So we'll sanction a few other things, but you can have all your energy and all your food to continue your campaign. That's what we did with Putin.
但这与发生在墨索里尼和数据上的情况相似。如果你还记得，英国和法国当时联合起来，持有相同的弱肉强食的和平思想。他们说，我们将制裁墨索里尼。墨索里尼说，如果你制裁我的能源或食物，那就是战争行为。所以他们说，我们不能这样做。所以我们将制裁其他一些事情，但你可以拥有所有的能源和食物来继续你的行动。这就是我们对普京所采取的做法。
If Xi were planning for war, you'd expect him to take what assets the sovereign has and the SOEs have in direct accounts with the US and they would start whittling them down or trying to sanction proof. And we're going to get into what he's doing. US capital markets are the deepest, most liquid markets in the world and currently have the highest interest rates. So again, dollar balances should be buying short-term treasuries at 4% and 5% and not doing other things with them.
如果习近平计划发动战争，你会预计他会利用国家和国有企业在与美国直接账户上拥有的资产，并开始削减它们或试图进行制裁的准备。我们将揭示他正在采取的行动。美国资本市场是世界上最深、最流动的市场，目前拥有最高的利率。所以，美元余额应该用于购买4%和5%的短期国债，而不是做其他事情。
So we all know China's GDP in dollar terms. These are Bloomberg and World Bank numbers have increased 500% since 2008 alone. There are trade balance with China has basically come down to where it's about a $380 billion trade deficit annually. We have about $850 billion of trade that turns into a $380 billion trade deficit. Now, the difference between trade balance and current account balance, those of you that aren't a particular economist or financial people, the trade balance is one data series that contributes to the calculation of the current account. The current account is all financial flows in and out.
所以我们都知道中国的国内生产总值以美元计算，根据彭博社和世界银行的数据，自2008年以来增长了500%。与中国的贸易平衡基本上下降到每年大约3800亿美元的贸易逆差。我们有大约8500亿美元的贸易，最后形成了3800亿美元的贸易逆差。现在，贸易平衡和经常账户平衡之间的区别，那些不是具体经济学家或金融人士的人，贸易平衡是计算经常账户的数据系列之一。经常账户是指资金流入和流出的所有财务流动。
So, you know, there are 450,000 Chinese students in US universities in the US. They are paying about 62 billion a year for that. That's money leaving, right? This is money coming into China. That was money leaving. When the Chinese were traveling prior to COVID around the world and spending, they can't spend R&B anywhere. They have to spend dollars, Eurogens or pounds. That number was a huge number, multiple hundreds of billions. So, the current account is kind of the net assessment. Think about the net income of the sovereign.
嗯，你知道，在美国的大学里有45万名中国留学生。他们每年为此支付约620亿美元。这是资金流出，对吧？这是资金流入中国。以前中国人在COVID疫情之前周游世界并花钱时，他们无法花人民币。他们必须用美元、欧元或英镑进行消费。该数字非常庞大，达数千亿美元。因此，经常账户是对主权国家净收入的评估。
So, the current account, I'm going to, you guys are going to think I'm maybe conspiratorial, but let me walk you through this. The current account, just prior to the COVID was, as you see, trending down towards zero. That international travel number on China's macro level data series in the wind database, right before COVID was $420 billion. So, think about this for a second. The current account was going to zero, and the primary reason was they had a big balance of trade that was positive in their favor, but allowing the Chinese population writ large to travel and spend abroad and maybe invest a little bit. You remember they had certain amounts that were allowable. That number got to be $420 billion.
所以，关于现行账户，我要说的可能会让你们觉得我是个阴谋论者，但让我给你们解释一下。在新冠疫情爆发前，中国的国际旅行数字在宏观数据系列中显示趋势向零。那个数字是4200亿美元。所以，请你们想想这个情况。现行账户正在趋近于零，主要原因是中国有一个对他们有利的贸易顺差，同时允许广大中国人民出国旅行、消费，或许还能投资一点。你们还记得他们有一定的额度是可以允许的。那个数字曾经达到4200亿美元。
So, at a time in which the Hong Kong protests were at their zenith, December 2019, and the time in which their current account was dangerously heading below zero for the first time, COVID arose, that was really convenient for them. That really saved two major existential problems for the Communist Party. Hong Kong and their current account. So, if you look at the current account, boom, in which straight back up to magic, $400 billion. So, again, maybe it was just a pure coincidence, but maybe it was a perfectly timed execution of something else.
所以，在香港抗议活动达到顶峰的2019年12月，而他们的外汇储备也危险地接近零的时候，新冠疫情突然爆发了，对共产党来说真是再方便不过了。这样一来，他们就解决了两个重大的存在问题，即香港问题和外汇储备问题。所以，如果我们看看他们的外汇储备，瞬间就能回升到神奇的4000亿美元。所以，也许这只是巧合，但也有可能是某种完美时机的巧妙安排。
So, if you're running a positive current account, if you have more dollars coming in than going out, what you would be doing with that money is investing it in dollar-based debt at the highest yields with the deepest capital markets in the world. But what are you seeing here? China's taken their treasury balance from a trillion to 850 billion. We don't know what the new number is yet, but I would imagine that Janet Yellen's tour de appeasement recently was begging them to just stop selling their treasuries. We have to issue another $800,000,000 just for the announced fiscal deficit for the year, and the Fed's not buying them, China's not buying them. There are a few other sovereigns that are buying them. Someone who's got to buy these things, I think our banking system will lose more deposits. They'll go into treasuries. But the point being is, this is a non-financial move. If you were running China, you'd be buying treasuries not selling them, unless you're trying to sanction-proof your reserves. They're getting them out here.
因此，如果你的经常账户是正数，也就是说，你收入的美元多于支出的美元，那你会将这些钱投资在全球最深的资本市场中收益最高的以美元计价的债务上。但是你在这里看到了什么呢？中国将其美国国债余额从一万亿美元减少到了8500亿美元。我们还不知道新的数字是多少，但我可以想象，最近珍妮特·耶伦的安抚之旅是恳求他们停止出售美国国债。为了宣布的财政赤字，我们必须再发行8000亿美元的国债，而美联储不再购买它们，中国也不再购买。还有几个主权国家在购买。但我认为有人必须购买这些，我认为我们的银行系统将会失去更多存款。它们将会投资在国债上。但要记住的是，这是一个非金融的举动。如果你是中国的领导人，你将会购买国债而不是出售它们，除非你想要制裁自己的储备金。他们正在将它们从这里拿走。
Now, you guys, those of you there in the economics profession probably follow Brad's set-turn, a couple of people that really understand financial flows. Well, Brad's comment here is that they're selling treasuries, but they're buying agency securities in Belgium.
你们，经济学领域的那些人可能正在关注布拉德的言论，他们中有几个人真正理解金融流动。布拉德在这里的评论是他们正在出售国债，但他们在比利时购买机构证券。
If that's the case, and by the way, it's supposition. There's no data series that will show you that that's the case. But if he's right, that's also trying to betting that they can divide Europe and not have severe European sanctions if and when the US sanctions them.
如果真是这样的话，顺便说一下，这只是猜测。没有任何数据系列能证明这是事实。但是如果他是对的，那也等于试图打赌他们能够分裂欧洲，并且在美国制裁他们时不会受到严厉的欧洲制裁。
As we've seen out of Macron lately in what you're seeing out of Germany, there's not a lot of solidarity in Europe as far as it relates to China. But this is something really interesting.
最近我们从马克龙以及从德国看到的情况可以发现，就涉及到对中国的立场，欧洲并没有展现出很多的团结。但这一点非常有趣。
One of the other things that happened in the last few months is, how many of you in here use any of the China data series like Wind or any of these, like the Bloomberg's of China? At our firm, we use Wind at all the research universities in the US. They use Wind. It is a data aggregator of both macro level data and corporate level data.
在过去几个月里发生的另一件事是，你们当中有多少人使用中国的数据系列，像Wind或者类似于Bloomberg的那些？在我们公司，我们在美国的研究大学都使用Wind。他们也使用Wind。Wind是一个聚合了宏观级别数据和企业级别数据的数据整合平台。
About three, four months ago, severed. It's gone. No more data series. You're not allowed to have it. The data that we're getting out of China now is from the mainland approved by Xi Jinping to be released in a press release. There's no more databases. Stanford doesn't have it anymore. Harvard doesn't have anymore. All of the universities that are actually partners with China in many ways and receive a lot of Chinese donations have been different. It would be different if it was just me that got severed, but it was everybody. I think access to all data was just severed.
大约三、四个月前，断开了。它消失了。没有更多数据系列。你不能拥有它。现在我们从中国获取的数据是经过习近平批准发布的来自大陆的报告。没有更多的数据库了。斯坦福大学不再拥有它。哈佛大学也不再拥有。所有与中国在许多方面合作并收到大量中国捐款的大学都有所不同。如果只是我一个人断开了连接，情况可能会不同，但是所有人都断开了连接。我认为对所有数据的访问权都被切断了。
If you think about the strategy on the battlefield, about controlling the data domain, we all know that China has 20% plus youth unemployment. We all know their economy is really struggling right now. The last thing Xi Jinping wants is the Western press to keep writing about how much trouble their economy is in. You know what? They just cut the data feed. Now we're going to run with whatever they say.
如果你考虑到战场上的策略，控制数据领域，我们都知道中国有超过20%的青年失业率。我们都知道他们的经济目前正在艰难挣扎。习近平最不希望的就是西方媒体一直写关于他们经济陷入困境的问题。你知道吗？他们刚刚切断了数据传输。现在我们将按照他们说的来执行。
In case in point, last year, last year they were welding their citizens into their buildings during the extreme COVID lockdowns. They were the LNG demand for China was down 22%, and we chat payments were down 30%. If I gave you those three data points on a chalkboard, would you say GDP was up or down? It was a train wreck last year, and you see that in the commodities markets, but China reported a very positive GDP for the year. So it's interesting what they do. So now we're not going to get those data series anymore.
举例来说，去年他们在极端的COVID封锁期间把他们的公民焊接在建筑物中。中国的液化天然气需求下降了22％，微信支付下降了30％。如果我在黑板上给你这三个数据点，你会说GDP是上升还是下降？去年是一场灾难，你可以从大宗商品市场中看到这一点，但中国报告了一个非常积极的年度GDP。所以他们的做法很有趣。所以现在我们将不再获得这些数据系列了。
If you were Xi Jinping and you were, you have two worlds. You have your domestic world, which is your RMB or your UAM based world, which you control. They control everything internally. But then you have the world, they're interfaced with the outside, and this is key to understanding.
如果你是习近平，你会有两个世界。你有你的国内世界，它是以人民币或UAM为基础的世界，你对其有控制权。他们在内部控制一切。但是你还有一个与外部进行交互的世界，这是理解的关键。
They all cross border settlements, about 85% of all cross border settlements, when China trades with the rest of the world, they're in dollars. Everything they do internally is in RMB or UAM. The dollars really important to them. And so if you were Xi and you thought about the way their Chinese capital markets work, you have domestic capital markets that issue bonds and stocks in RMB, then you have domestic or Chinese companies that issue bonds in dollars.
当中国与世界其他国家进行贸易时，所有跨境结算中大约85%都是以美元进行。他们在国内的一切交易都是以人民币或港币进行的。美元对他们来说非常重要。因此，如果你是习主席，你会考虑中国的资本市场运作方式，中国有国内资本市场发行以人民币计价的债券和股票，同时也有国内或中国企业发行以美元计价的债券。
So case in point, there are about $170 billion worth of dollar bonds that the Chinese property developers issued to the West. So a bunch of Western investors bought dollar bonds. They have RMB based bonds too. But if you were China and you were about to prepare for war, you would just say, you know what? I'm just not going to pay those dollars back. I'm going to default on my dollar stuff, and I'm going to pay my RMB stuff so that my people are okay. That's the basic way to think about what they're doing here.
所以说，举个例子，中国房地产开发商向西方发行了约1700亿美元的美元债券。一大批西方投资者购买了这些美元债券，他们也有人民币债券。但是，如果你是中国，并且正准备发动战争，你可能会决定不偿还这些美元，而是违约，只偿还人民币债券，以确保我国人民安全。这就是他们在这里所做的基本思路。
So they're offshore defaults for their dollar based bonds. If you look at the two current categories, they're 35%. So 65% of the dollar based bonds of all the property developers in China are in default offshore. Onshore, it's a little bit different. Right now, there are 79% of those bonds of the same companies, not default. Only 21% are in default. So if you're a Westerner holding a dollar bond, you're going to get something that rhymes with hero.
所以，他们的以美元为基础的债券在海外出现了违约。如果你看一下目前的两个类别，他们的违约率为35%。因此，在中国所有房地产开发商的以美元为基础的债券中，有65%是在海外违约的。国内情况稍有不同。目前，这些同一公司的债券中，有79%没有违约。只有21%违约。因此，如果你是持有美元债券的西方人，你将会得到与英雄押韵的结果。
Essaywee banks, this is another thing that just started happening. So the way that airplane leasing works in China is the big SOE banks are the orderers for Boeing and Airbus. They're the biggest orderers in Asia. They own the order books. Those order books have grown since China ascended the WTO. They want to control the aircraft leasing markets. They want to do it for their own market domestically and then they want to be the big less sore for the rest of Southeast Asia, which they are. They have never missed a year to grow their order books in the last 20 years.
这是另一种刚刚开始出现的情况。在中国，飞机租赁的运作方式是大型国有银行向波音和空客下订单。它们是亚洲最大的订购者，拥有订单簿。自中国加入世界贸易组织以来，这些订单簿已经不断增长。它们希望控制飞机租赁市场，首先是国内市场，然后成为东南亚地区的主要租赁商，而他们已经做到了。在过去的20年里，他们从未错过过增加订单簿的机会。
Well, just a few months, just two months ago, some NDAs went out to the marketplace. Two of the big SOE banks want to sell their entire order book. They've gone from building, building, building, building, with a very specific strategy in mind is controlling the order books of all the big airliners in China to we want to sell it all. And we want dollars and we want the highest bidder. It's just a change in their strategic positioning in the financial markets. They would never do that. If they thought they wanted to keep growing and having a positive relationship with financial markets in the West.
嗯，只是几个月前，也就是两个月前，一些非披露协议（NDAs）被发送到市场上。两家大型国有银行想要出售他们的全部订单簿。他们一直以来都致力于实现一个非常具体的战略，即控制中国所有大型航空公司的订单簿，但现在他们希望全部出售。他们想要得到美元，并且希望以最高价成交。这只是他们在金融市场上战略定位的改变。如果他们仍然希望继续增长并与西方金融市场保持良好关系，他们绝不会这样做。
These things are in the market. These are $10 billion plus transactions. So the other thing that happened even before they put together their new laws about national security of data is the Chinese authorities arbitrarily and capriciously rated the men's group, Bain, Cap Vision. They detain multiple employees. They are doing things that are scaring the lights out of US corporate due diligence companies. All three of these companies just due diligence. They look at Chinese competition. If you're a private equity firm in the US, you hire one of these firms and say, hey, this group of Chinese investors or entrepreneurs came to us to get us to give them money and raise for the new company. We need to understand if they're criminals. We need to understand what their history is. You do basic due diligence. The Chinese rated all three of these firms took all of the computers and detained employees. If you were trying to develop or continue a system that attracts dollars and attracts corporate interests, this is something you would never do.
这些事情正在市场上发生。这些是100亿美元以上的交易。所以在制定有关数据国家安全的新法律之前，中国当局任意地对男子团队贝恩(Bain)和公司Cap Vision进行了评级。他们拘留了多名员工。他们正在做一些让美国企业尽职调查公司感到恐惧的事情。这三家公司只是在进行尽职调查。他们研究中国的竞争对手。如果你是美国的私募股权公司，你会聘请其中一家公司，并说：嘿，这个中国的投资者或企业家团队来找我们给他们募集资金，为新公司筹款。我们需要了解他们是否是犯罪分子。我们需要了解他们的历史。你会进行基本的尽职调查。中国对这三家公司进行了评级，拿走了所有的电脑并拘留了员工。如果你试图开发或继续一个吸引资金和企业利益的体系，这是你绝对不会做的事情。
Okay. We're time planning for natural resources. If again, if we were running China, China's the world's largest importer of crude oil and LNG, they import almost 12 million barrels a day of crude, 8 B.C. F. a day of LNG. They use about 15.5 billion or a million barrels of oil a day. So you would try to secure that kind of natural resource commitment from, let's just say, countries around the world that might not adhere to US sanctions.
好的，我们正在为自然资源进行时间规划。如果我们再次执掌中国，中国是全球最大的原油和液化天然气进口国，他们每天进口近1200万桶原油和8亿立方英尺液化天然气。他们每天使用大约155亿或一百万桶石油。因此，你会尝试从世界各地的国家获得这种类型的自然资源承诺，这些国家可能不遵守美国的制裁。
And if you were going to do that, what would you do? Well, maybe you'd get on an airplane. And for the first time in the history of the world, the Chinese premier landed in Saudi Arabia. And maybe you'd try to get the Sunnis in the Shi'as to love each other and start talking with Iran and Iraq. What do you think he just did? He just did that. He's trying to put together 12 million barrels a day. On the gas, he'd be trying to do the same thing. Gas is harder. So I'm going to walk you through. Here's where China gets its crude from, about half from the Middle East, 13% Africa, about 16% from Russia. So really, they only have to worry about a handful of percent. You know, the Russians are going to go along with them. So the Saudis play both sides. You know the rest of the Middle East will play both sides. So they're pretty safe, I think, in their, let's say, countering sanctions moment in the event of an invasion. What they're going to have to worry about is the majority of this is seaborne, and we have a great navy. So those straits in Malacca are going to become trouble for them on the energy side. But let's just say in securing commitments. They're there on the natural gas side, LNG. The brown area there is mostly the stands, and that's pipeline. So you get to focus on the rest of the world. The really only problem for them on the LNG side is Australia. So if you knew you couldn't get Australia, which they won't get Australia to agree, what would you do? Would you build a lot more coal because you have a lot of coal?
如果你打算这样做，你会怎么做呢？嗯，也许你会乘坐飞机。在世界历史上首次，中国总理登陆了沙特阿拉伯。也许你会试图让逊尼派和什叶派相互爱戴，与伊朗和伊拉克展开对话。你认为他刚刚做了什么？他就是这么做的。他正试图日产1200万桶石油。关于天然气，他将试图做同样的事情。不过天然气要更困难一些。所以我来向你展示。这是中国的原油供应，大约一半来自中东，13%来自非洲，大约16%来自俄罗斯。所以实际上，他们只需要担心几个百分点。你知道，俄罗斯会支持他们的。你知道中东其它国家也会左右逢源。所以，在他们，让我们说，在面对制裁时，他们是相当安全的。他们需要担心的是绝大部分海运，而我们有一支强大的海军。所以对他们来说，马六甲海峡将成为能源方面的麻烦。但让我们还是假设在确保一揽子协议方面。他们在液化天然气方面已有所准备。那里的棕色地区主要是中亚国家，那是管道。所以你可以关注世界其他地区。他们在液化天然气方面唯一的问题就是澳大利亚。所以如果你知道你无法得到澳大利亚的同意，而他们确实不会得到澳大利亚的同意，你会怎么办呢？你会建造更多的煤制气厂，因为你有很多煤。
In May of 2023, China's coal imports hit 360 to 380 million tons. That compares with 290 million tons the year before and an all time record in 2013 of 327 million tons. This is John Kerry's worst nightmare. They are going back to the dirtiest, cheapest potential fuel in the event that they're not going to be able to get that LNG. Again, I'm giving you one idea here, but it sure looks to me that they are securing all of, trying to secure all of their energy commitments.
2023年5月，中国煤炭进口量达到了360到380亿吨，相较于前一年的2.9亿吨以及2013年创下的3.27亿吨，这个数据令约翰·克里（John Kerry）非常困扰。如果他们无法获得液化天然气（LNG），他们将转向最脏、最廉价的潜在燃料。我在这里只提供了一个想法，但从我的看法来看，他们正试图确保所有的能源供应。
Chinese local governments permitted a staggering 106 gigawatts of new coal in 2022. That's 100 large coal-fired power plants the most since 2015, and it quadrupled over 2021. Think about where the world's headed on an ESG front and on a climate front in Greta. I can't figure out why Greta never ends up in Beijing, but we can talk about that later. Other coal-powered project activity accelerated as well. 50% more starts. China, the combined capacity of coal-powered plants that started construction that just began last year was six times as large as all the rest of the world combined, just to put things into perspective.
2022年，中国地方政府批准新增106吉瓦特的煤炭项目。相当于100座大型燃煤发电厂，这是自2015年以来最多的数量，比2021年增加了三倍。考虑到ESG和气候方面，我们应该思考世界未来的走向。我无法理解为什么格蕾塔从未去过北京，但我们可以之后再讨论这个问题。其他燃煤项目的活动也在加速。新开工的项目数量增加了50%。仅就刚刚开始建设的燃煤发电厂的综合装机容量而言，中国远远超过了全球其他地区的总和，约为其六倍。希望这些信息能给大家一个清晰的认识。
What else would they be doing to diversify themselves away from sanctions? Gold. They added eight tons of gold in April. They've got about $150 billion worth of gold. It doesn't really move the needle per se, but on $3 trillion of reserves, $150 billion is nothing to sneeze at if they're going to really need access to something they can sell somewhere that doesn't adhere to US sanctions.
除了制裁以外，他们还会采取哪些措施来实现多样化？黄金。他们在四月份增加了8吨黄金。他们持有价值约1500亿美元的黄金。尽管这并不对整体形势产生太大影响，但在3万亿美元的储备中，如果他们确实需要访问某些不受美国制裁限制的销售市场，那1500亿美元也不容忽视。
The last thing, there are two things I'm almost finished here. We're going to have plenty of time for questions. China has 20% of the world's population, and they're hoarding almost 70% of the world's grain today. Now, different grains are in different amounts, but the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration told reporters this last November, are wheat stockpiles can sustain China for a year and a half. That's super interesting. Why would you need to do that? Why would you need to have a wheat stockpile that lasts a year and a half in China? The China Enterprise Grain Reserve Company was formed in August of 22 to manage their national grain reserves. The new companies are joint venture between their two state-owned grain companies, Sino-grain and Kafka. If you had a grain reserve, you're running a country, and your people in one of your largest cities are hanging out their windows, banging pots and pans because they're welded into their buildings, and you have a food reserve in that city, wouldn't you release the food reserve to the people that needed food? It didn't happen. The grain reserves weren't touched in Shanghai when the extreme COVID lockdowns were going on. If you're not going to release them then, then why are you holding them? I don't know, maybe you're holding them for something even larger. That's an even larger problem.
事实上，最后一件事是，我将在这里完成的有两件事。我们将有大量的时间来回答问题。中国拥有世界人口的20%，如今他们储存了世界粮食近70%。现在，不同的谷物数量不同，但是中国国家粮食和战略储备管理局的粮食储备部主任在去年11月告诉记者，小麦储备可以维持中国一年半的粮食供应。这非常有趣。为什么你需要这样做呢？为什么你需要在中国有一年半的小麦储备？中国企业粮食储备公司成立于22年8月，负责管理他们的国家粮食储备。这家新公司是中粮集团和中粮可口可乐公司两家国有粮食公司的合资企业。如果你拥有粮食储备，你是一个国家的领导人，而你的人民中有些人因为他们被封锁在大楼里，而挂着锅碗瓢盆从窗户里探出头来，那你会把粮食储备分发给那些需要食物的人吗？但事实并非如此。当上海进行极端的COVID封锁措施时，粮食储备没有动用。如果那个时候你都不释放它们，为什么还要保留它们呢？我不知道，也许你还是为了某个更大的目的而保留它们。这是一个更大的问题。
Again, I'm trying to show you in a series of different ways that they're doing things that don't actually make sense unless there's a greater plan for a worse situation. The last one here, this is a fascinating stat. The number of Chinese ICBM launchers reported by the Pentagon went from 100 missile silos and launchers in 2020 to 450 by October of last year. Just think about that for a second. They had 100 in their entire country in 2020. They have taken that number and increased it by 350% in 18 months. Now, why would they do that? Again, this has a strategic militaristic buildup, food buildup. They're trying to sanction proof their money, and she's telling you in every speech he's given to prepare for war. In fact, he just recently did it the day that Janet Yellen landed in China. That day he visited China's Eastern Military Command, and he told the people in the Eastern Military Command to oversee Taiwan to prepare for war. He was gaslighting Yellen right before she landed.
再次强调，我正试图用不同的方式向你展示，他们正在做一些看起来毫无意义的事情，除非他们有一个更糟糕的情况下的更大计划。最后一个例子，这是一个令人着迷的统计数据。五角大楼报告的中国洲际弹道导弹发射器数量从2020年的100个导弹井和发射器增加到了去年10月的450个。想想看这个数字，他们在2020年全国范围内只有100个，而在18个月内他们将这个数字增加了350%。那么，为什么他们要这么做呢？再次强调，这是一个战略性的军事累积，食品累积。他们正试图保证他们的货币不受制裁，并且习近平在每次演讲中都告诉你准备战争。事实上，就在贾南·耶伦降落中国的那天，他访问了中国东部军区指挥部，并告诉东部军区的人们准备战争，给耶伦放出一些气。
So, if you listen to Xi, you read what he says, and forget about the Western press, like I've tried to do here, he's telling you where he's going, he's telling you what he's doing, and he's making every preparation that I would make if I were running China and I knew I was going to invade Taiwan. So, I think it's important to have this conversation. Do I know that he's going to do it? I don't. But I actually take him at his word. I think it's likely. I think it's highly likely that he invades Taiwan. And I'm not a military strategist or analyst. I'm a financial analyst, but looking at all of the writing on what I call the Great Wall, it sure looks like it's headed all in one direction.
因此，如果你听习近平说话，阅读他的言论，并忘记西方媒体，就像我在这里尝试的那样，他正在告诉你他要去哪里，他在告诉你他正在做什么，并且他正在做我如果我管理中国并知道我将要入侵台湾时会做的一切准备。所以，我认为进行这种对话很重要。我知道他会这样做吗？我不知道。但是我确实相信他说的话。我认为这是有可能的。我认为他可能会入侵台湾。我不是一位军事战略家或分析师。我是一位金融分析师，但是从我所看到的关于我所称之为“长城”的所有记录来看，它似乎正朝着一个方向前进。
So, I'll stop there and love to take questions, and Paula, I think you're going to come up and join me. Thank you. Thank you. I was indeed going to say that because this is our game plan. First, outstanding presentation, very compelling, well researched. So, really, the kind of detail and the argumentation, as I said, is very compelling, and we have to have a vibrant discussion.
所以，我就到这里结束了，很愿意回答问题，保拉，我想你会上前与我一起。谢谢你们。谢谢。我确实要说这个，因为这是我们的计划。首先，非常出色的演讲，内容非常引人入胜，研究也非常充分。因此，我说过的那些细节和论述非常有说服力，我们必须进行充满活力的讨论。
So, I'm only going to ask you one question. So, all of you, please be thinking about your questions because we're going to really go to you and hear your exchange with Kyle. My core question is this, I did just as Dr. Yu just mentioned, I just returned from Taiwan. And needless to say, front and center, at least during my visit in the delegation I was on, we did focus on this very question. What's the timeline here? I don't think anyone is focusing on if, but they are focusing on when. And this is what I want to push you a bit further. So, elections on Taiwan, the three candidates will be held in January, 2024. Some are arguing that this election, the Chinese, of course, are already wielding and waging their influence on, are hoping to wield their influence on the results of the election. People argue, well, that's the quote unquote invasion, that they have the political, some argue this, well, you know, get the right candidate, it's low cost, we got it. We don't have to expend our military or our economic reserves.
因此，我只会问你一个问题。所以，你们所有人都请思考一下你们的问题，因为我们将真正地向你们询问并听取你们与凯尔之间的交流。我的主要问题是，就像余博士刚才提到的那样，我刚从台湾返回。不用说，在我所参加的代表团访问期间，我们确实关注了这个问题。时间表是什么？我认为没有人关注是否，而是关注何时。这是我想进一步追问的问题。所以，台湾的选举将于2024年1月举行。有人认为，中国人当然已经在这场选举中施加和发挥影响力，并希望对选举结果施加影响。有人争辩说，这是所谓的入侵，他们拥有政治上的控制力量。有人争论说，只要选对候选人，成本就很低，我们就成功了。我们不必耗费军事或经济储备。
On the other hand, then, to a different point of view, it was said, well, let's look at 2027. Shizhi Ping, you know, that's a point where he goes on to another term, and looking at really the legacy. And maybe it should be that point in time. Give us now your view, since you made such an extremely compelling case. What do you think in terms of the timing? And let me add one more wrinkle in the mix. You know, the question was, is it going to be military? You even yourself in articulating and mentioning the operation joint fight strike, the ambitious assault, excuse me, amphibious assault. In this case, the other question is, well, could it just take the form of a blockade, dive a little deeper on that, and then we're going to go to all of you.
另一方面，对于一个不同的观点，人们说，那么，让我们看看2027年。施之平，你知道，这是他的另一个任期的一个节点，也是看着他真正的遗产。也许这应该是一个时间点。既然你提出了如此令人信服的观点，现在请给我们你的看法，关于时间点你有什么想法？让我再增加一个复杂因素。你知道，问题是，这可能是军事行动吗？你在表达和提及联合打击行动时，就提到了雄心勃勃的水陆两栖进攻。在这种情况下，另一个问题是，它可能只是采取封锁的形式，请详细探讨一下，然后我们将听取你们大家的意见。
I'll start by saying, I recently returned and so did Miles from the beaches of Normandy. And when you walk around and you understand the destruction and the disaster that one madman, or let's say back then to Hitler and Mussolini, could bring to an entire world, it really sunk in understanding that we know Putin's a madman. And we also know he's not acting. When I hear people rationalize when someone might move for this reason or that, or there's an election coming, or it's much easier and it'd be much easier on the economy to do X, Y, or Z. When you really think about who these guys are, they are not rational. And they are not economic actors.
首先，我要讲一下，最近我和迈尔斯都从诺曼底的海滩回来了。当你在附近走走，了解到一个疯子，或者说当时的希特勒和墨索里尼能给整个世界带来的破坏与灾难时，你就真正明白我们知道普京是个疯子。我们也知道他不是假装的。当我听到人们为某人采取这个或那个行动的原因进行合理化解释，或者说有选举将要举行，或者说做X、Y或Z会更容易也会更有利于经济时，当你真正考虑这些人是谁时，他们并不是理性的。他们也不是经济行为者。
And I remind you, Putin didn't invade because he thought it was a great economic move. And he didn't choose a time that was suitable to the rest of the world. It was a time suitable to him. And so when I think about whether or not Xi Jinping is rational and economic, and if you even remember when the blood banks move to the border, the New York Times are saying he's just saved rattling. I mean, for God's sake, everyone thinks these people are rational and they're not. So you think this could be imminent, imminent in the sense that there's a mobilization. I mean, it could be around the corner. It could certainly be in 2024. Yeah, so the sum total of my analysis, especially on the financial side, which is where I find myself to have the most expertise, it's now down to a period of months in which they're ready and not years. The cadence of what they're doing in financial markets can take us down to 12 to 18 months. So I would say my guess is before the end of next year. And again, who am I to guess. But based on my analysis, it sure looks obvious that that's the case.
我提醒你，普京入侵乌克兰并不是因为他认为这是一个伟大的经济举措，也不是选择了适合世界其他地方的时间，而是适合他自己的时间。所以当我考虑习近平是否理智和经济合理时，如果你还记得当血库搬到边境时，纽约时报说他只是在敲打警钟。我的意思是，天哪，每个人都认为这些人很理智，但他们并不是。所以你认为这可能是迫在眉睫的，迫在眉睫是指动员。可能就在拐角处，肯定会在2024年之前发生。是的，所以我的分析总结，特别是在金融方面，这是我最有专长的领域，现在已经降低到几个月的时间，而不是几年。他们在金融市场上所做的节奏可能会在12到18个月内让我们陷入危机。所以我猜测，在明年年底之前会发生。再说一次，我凭什么猜测呢。但基于我的分析，很显然情况如此。
And then if I was Xi Jinping, if you read very carefully the militaristic doctrine that is in open source, they are focused on targeting destruction, ways of life. And destruction, way before detection happens. So I think he'll move much sooner than any of us think he'll move. And I think it will be military. And I hope I'm wrong about all this because the world will be so much better placed for us and our kids and our families and our relationships. If I'm right, that's awful. And it's something I don't want.
如果我是习近平的话，如果你仔细阅读开放源的军事主义教义，你会发现他们专注于针对破坏生活方式的目标，而且破坏行动往往在被察觉之前就已经发生。所以我认为他会比我们任何人都更早采取行动。而且我认为他可能会采取军事行动。希望我对所有这些都是错误的，因为如果我是正确的，那将是可怕的。而且这是我不希望发生的事情，对我们和我们的孩子、家庭和人际关系而言，这将是一个更好的世界。
I have to say again, your analysis here is very compelling. It's well articulated and well researched. And so, all right, let's go to questions. And by the way, we're going to try to get everybody in the mix here. Let's go to you first and please introduce yourself. I'm Peter Humphrey. I'm an intelligence analyst and a former diplomat. I'm troubled by a real fantasy that seemed to dominate this problem. And that is that Taiwan has to wear with all to stop an invasion fleet. And clearly, it does not. If we're looking at convoys coming from Poland, they ain't coming. Everything that Taiwan needs has to be on the island on day one. And it needs more stuff than Ukraine ever needed. And we ain't supplying it. So I want to ask why we're living with this fantasy that we cannot conceivably arm Taiwan in time. And telling that does Taiwan have the financial wherewithal to make the anti ship missiles, the drones and their torpedoes that might might have a chance at sinking the invasion fleet.
我得再说一次，你在这里的分析非常有说服力。论述清晰，研究充分。好了，让我们开始提问。顺便说一下，我们将尽量让每个人都参与进来。首先轮到你，请介绍一下自己。我是彼得·亨弗里，情报分析师和前外交官。我对一个真实的幻想感到困扰，似乎它主导了这个问题。即台湾必须有能力阻止一支入侵舰队。显然，它没有这种能力。如果我们正在研究从波兰来的船队，它们根本不存在。台湾所需要的一切必须在第一天就位于该岛上。而且它需要的东西比乌克兰所需要的还要多。而我们并没有提供支援。所以我想问为什么我们要生活在这个难以想象的幻想之中，认为我们无法在时间上给台湾提供武器。同时，台湾是否有财力制造反舰导弹、无人机和鱼雷，以可能有机会击沉入侵舰队呢？
Thank you for your two questions. Thank you also. No speeches. We can hear his answer.
谢谢您提出的两个问题。也谢谢您。不需要演讲。我们可以听他的回答。
One thing I haven't, I didn't really elucidate well there is I am a huge proponent of crippling China through the economic sphere. There are four wars that we can be fighting with them. One, the kinetic war that you're that we're all referring to today, where the US has the best war department in the world. The second one is a cyber war department cyber war where we have the best department in the world. The two other wars, the economic war and the data slash propaganda war, we don't have war departments. Okay. What I'm advocating for is if 86% of cross border settlement for all of China's daily transactions are in dollars, we can hobble their economy if we press one button. If we take them off the swift system writ large and say your S.O.E. banks, your joint stock banks. If you invade Taiwan, that's what we're going to do. Their economy comes to a grinding hall in one month. And we need to we need to socialize the concept of that button.
有一件事我没有很好地阐述，就是我非常赞成通过经济手段削弱中国。我们可以与他们打四场战争。第一场是我们今天都在谈论的动态战争，美国拥有世界上最强大的军事力量。第二场是网络战，我们拥有世界上最好的网络战部门。另外两场战争是经济战和数据/宣传战，我们没有相应的战争部门。我提倡的是，如果中国86%的跨境结算都是以美元进行，我们可以通过按下一个按钮让他们的经济陷入困境。如果我们让他们从SWIFT系统中被踢出来，对他们的国有企业银行、股份制银行说那就是我们要做的。他们的经济将在一个月内陷入停滞。我们需要社会化这个按钮的概念。
Here's the problem. You look at the administration and again, I'm not being partisan. It's just the people in place today. And even the people that were in place in the Trump administration because we talked about this. The Treasury's owned by Wall Street, right? Mnuchin was owned by Wall Street, Yellen is owned by Wall Street. They want one thing. They want more dollars, more euros, more shackles. They want to chase economic deals. And so getting Treasury and OFAC to socialize the concept of pressing this economic nuclear button. They won't talk about it. It's too incendiary. But it is incredibly effective. We don't need all the harpoon missiles sitting around Taiwan. If we don't want to engage militarily, I believe some of it will be military. But if we really want to be effective, we press that button. Put me in charge of OFAC. I can work the button. And I know what kind of devastation it will do to China. And so we as a country, it's an amazing effective deterrent. We need to start talking about it. By the way, if I could just add, it's Russia based. Do you know what Medvedev, when he was president of Russia, he said, you take us off swift. You cut us on swift. It's a declaration of war. So it is a severe measure.
这个问题在于，你看看现在的政府，我并不是在支持某个党派，我只是对现在执政的人表示担忧。甚至包括特朗普政府的那些人，因为我们讨论过这个问题。财政部是由华尔街所控制的，对吧？姆努钦受华尔街控制，耶伦也受华尔街控制。他们追求一个目标，就是想获得更多的美元、欧元和金融利益。他们想要推动经济交易。因此，让财政部和OFAC将这种经济核按钮的概念传播给公众是困难的，他们不愿意谈论它，因为这太具爆发性了。但这种方法非常有效。我们不需要在台湾周围部署所有的鱼叉导弹。如果我们不想军事干预，我相信部分措施会使用军事手段，但如果我们真的想要有效，我们应该按下那个按钮。让我来掌管OFAC，我可以操作这个按钮。我知道它会给中国带来怎样的破坏。作为一个国家，这是一个令人惊叹的有效威慑手段。我们需要开始谈论起来。顺便说一句，俄罗斯也是这样做的。你知道梅德韦杰夫在担任俄罗斯总统时曾说过，如果你将我们从SWIFT系统中踢出去，这等于向我们宣战。所以这是一项严厉的措施。
Let's go to this gentleman here. If we get a mic over here and if you'll introduce yourself. Please, no speeches, just questions. Thank you, everyone. So I'm Daniel. I'm the co-founder of Freeware Investment. So basically, my job is to basically just conduct the investigation on S&P companies to assess their exposure to China. We were looking about, like last time I come to the house institute, it was a U-sequent, their legislative yarn came here, their chairman came here. We were talking about the election. So thank you for bringing it up.
让我们来找这位先生。如果我们把麦克风放到这里，你能否介绍一下自己。请注意，不要作演讲，只问问题即可。谢谢大家。我是丹尼尔，Freeware Investment的联合创始人。我主要负责对标准普尔的公司进行调查，评估它们对中国的影响。上次我来这里时，我们谈到了一个有关选举的议题，那时候房子研究所的U-sequent和主席都来了。感谢你提及这个话题。
So the thing is, my worry is that how do we read the risk from China from China of all those war-stricken S&P companies considering their significant exposure from China. We're talking about more than 15% of almost like S&P companies being exposed to China. And my job is to basically just to build up a portfolio that's free from all of the entire countries to offer to investors.
所以问题是，我担心的是，考虑到大量在中国遇到战乱的标普公司在中国的重大风险，我们该如何看待来自中国的风险。我们谈论的是将近15%的标普公司与中国存在关联。而我的任务基本上就是建立一个完全摆脱所有国家风险的投资组合，以供投资者选择。
And one of the things that I think right now, American investors, we have trust of ESG environment, but we don't have a trust on human rights. It was saying that I want a portfolio that's free from China for all of the time, countries. I want human rights. Sorry, you don't have a choice. So my job is facing some difficulties right now to promote that awareness. Is there something that we can do here in the private sector? Yes.
目前我认为的一件事是，美国投资者对ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）过程充满信任，但对人权却没有。有人说，我想要一个完全不涉及中国的投资组合，我想要人权。很抱歉，你没有选择。所以目前我的工作面临一些困难来推广这种意识。私营部门在这方面能做些什么呢？是的。
Thank you. Thank you. It's a great question. It's something I've been pushing for behind the scenes and in the public domain for a long time. And unfortunately, again, even if you think about Biden and especially Blinken on the campaign trail, he specifically said many times in the public domain that we will, we, meaning the United States, will never trade human rights for a trade deal with China. But what did we just do? We just went over there, hat in hand, begging for meetings in the various disciplines, and we didn't mention human rights. We don't care. We care about economics and it's Wall Street driving this movement.
谢谢你。谢谢你。这是一个很好的问题。这是我长期以来一直在幕后和公开场合积极倡导的事情。不幸的是，即使你考虑到拜登和尤其是布林肯在竞选过程中的表态，他明确多次在公开场合表示，我们（指美国）永远不会以贸易协议来交换人权。但是我们刚刚做了什么？我们只是带着乞求的态度去那里，各个领域都不提及人权。我们不关心人权。我们关心经济，而推动这一行动的是华尔街。
So I always say in our firm, if our national security and our values were left up to Wall Street and the government, and the private sector will be speaking Chinese tomorrow, right? We need leadership at the top. We need leadership to set the guard rails. And it's interesting, the Director of National Intelligence in the United States every year declassifies a bunch of work and he writes a report to Congress. It happens every March. And it's the DNI threat assessment report to Congress. How many of you in here have read that report before? Okay, 5%. That report details the largest threats to US national security. And every year, it's China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and that order. And it's really, it's really interesting. It's well written. And there's this chasm between Wall Street, NSSNP, and the Director of National Intelligence giving you the data saying they are the largest threat to our way of life, to our values, to our system, and to the security of our country. And yet we can't wait to raise more money for an IPO that will help them genetically modify their food so that they can have a bigger reserve to attack us with. It's actually insane.
因此，我一直在我们的公司里说，如果我们的国家安全和价值观都交给华尔街和政府决定，那么明天我们的私营部门将会说中文，对吗？我们需要高层的领导力。我们需要领导者设定边界。有趣的是，美国国家情报总监每年都会解密一批工作，并向国会写一份报告。这种情况每年三月都会发生。这是国家情报总监向国会提交的威胁评估报告。在座的各位有多少人读过那份报告？好的，5%。这份报告详细列出了对美国国家安全构成最大威胁的因素。每年都是中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜，排序如此。这实际上非常有趣。它写得很好。而华尔街、不分享我们国家信息安全协会以及国家情报总监之间存在着一个大的鸿沟，他们提供的数据表明，这些国家是对我们的生活方式、价值观、体制和国家安全最大的威胁。然而，我们迫不及待地要为一次可以帮助他们基因改造他们的食物以便拥有更大的后备力量来攻击我们的IPO筹集更多资金，这实在是疯狂。
So there's no answer other than if and when this happens, the people that lose the money that lose what they have invested in China, whether it's PP&E on the corporate level or whether it's money invested from US institutions in their equity markets and their private equity world, they're going to lose it all, in my opinion. That day is coming. And those people deserve to lose it all, and they deserve to lose their jobs. Those people have never lost their jobs, right? They're going to say, but everybody did it. And I'm going to tell you that that's not going to fly.
所以除了如果和何时发生这种情况的答案之外，我认为那些失去在中国投资的资金、无论是在企业层面上的固定资产还是美国机构在中国股票市场和私募股权领域投资的资金，它们都将会全部损失。这一天即将到来。这些人应该全盘损失，他们应该失去工作。这些人从来没有失去过工作，对吧？他们会说，但是每个人都这样做。我要告诉你，这种借口行不通。
So I think there's just, there's no way to prevent it. Although corporate America is doing all they can now to diversify supply chains, and they're not going to tell you about it beforehand. They're going to do it very quietly. And they are. They are doing it.
所以我觉得，没办法阻止这种情况发生。尽管美国的企业正在尽全力多元化供应链，但他们不会事先告诉你。他们会非常低调地进行这样的调整。实际上，他们正在这样做。
I'm going to catch Dr. Yu. Did you have, you said you have a question or comment? I will. You're welcome. I need to know. All right, because thank you, because there are quite a few. I'm going to go to you right there, and then we'll pass it to you next. And I'll come back. I saw over on this side and back there. We'll catch you. We'll get you all. Please if you introduce yourself.
我要去找余博士。你有问题或意见吗？我会解答。不客气。我需要知道。好的，谢谢，因为有很多问题。我要先找你，然后再找下一个。我会回来的。我看到这边和那边有人举手。我们会找到你们的。请先介绍一下你自己。
Hi, thank you for speaking. My name is Zoe, and I'm an intern at the Vandenberg Coalition this summer. I just wanted to go back to what you said in your comments at the start of this discussion where you said that you don't think that she is necessarily a rational actor. I'm wondering how you reconcile that with kind of the methodical approach you think he's taking in terms of the grain reserves, you know, selling bonds and all the things you mentioned in your PowerPoint. Why would he go that far and then act in some kind of irrational way, not taking to account other factors like elections and such in his actual invasion of Taiwan. If you'll pass the mic to him and we'll hold your question.
你好，谢谢你发言。我叫Zoe，今年夏天在Vandenberg Coalition做实习生。我想回到你在讨论开始时说的话，你说不认为她一定是一个理性的行动者。我想知道你是如何将这一点与你认为他在粮食储备、债券出售等方面采取的方法论相调和的，你在演示文稿中提到的所有事情。为什么他会走得那么远，然后以某种不理性的方式行动，不考虑其他因素，比如选举，以及他在对台湾的实际入侵中如何表现。如果你能把话筒递给他，我们将保留你的问题。
I think that they've had this plan for a very long time. I think, you know, she has been in 10 years. He's consolidated power like any dictator would. He's removed all of his opposition with Hu Jintao being the final straw. There is everyone in the standing committee owes their life to Zhejiang Ping in some way or fashion. So he's got yes men all the way through. And he's finally got to this point where he has total power. Now he's still very worried about, you know, he's he's sex generals like it's the national pastime over there when they even look look the wrong way. So he's worried internally about any kind of conflict, something that Miles and I talk about, but he's been very rational in the build to take Taiwan. But what I'm saying is rational thought from our perspective, our perspective is, well, if he was rational, he would never do that. He would never move on Taiwan. If he wants the GDP of China to move and he wants them to continue to grow and internationalize and make the world a larger kumbaya place, he would never do this. Right. So what I'm saying is from our perspective, he's not going to act rationally. From his perspective, what's rational is he's going to take Taiwan. And it doesn't matter what anyone else in the world says. They believe they're strong enough now to withstand US sanctions. They're going to build a coalition of the Axis of Evil. You just see who she's been visiting. You've got you've got him visiting Saudi. You've got him visiting Venezuela. He told, you know, he's a limitless partnership with the world's number one war criminal. How does our treasury secretary grow over there and ask for more meetings? Like there's there's a big gap between kind of, I think, perception and reality. I wake up every day thinking I'm taking crazy pills. So I think he's rational in his own mind, but he's not rational as we think. Kyle, we like your directness on everything here. All right, you're up next.
我认为他们已经有这个计划很久了。我认为，你知道，她已经在那里呆了10年了。他像任何独裁者一样巩固了权力。他把所有反对派都清除了，胡锦涛是最后的一个稻草。在常委会里，每个人在某种程度上都欠债于习近平。所以他有一路赞成者。现在，他终于获得了绝对的权力。现在，他仍然非常担心，你知道，像他这样的将军们是他们的全国消遣，只要他们看起来朝错的方向看一眼就会惹麻烦。所以他内心担心任何形式的冲突，这是我和Miles讨论过的问题，但他在夺取台湾的过程中一直非常理性。但是我所说的是，从我们的角度来看，理性的想法是，如果他理性的话，他永远不会这样做，他永远不会动台湾。如果他希望中国的国内生产总值增长，并希望他们继续增长和国际化，使世界成为一个更加和谐的地方，他永远不会这样做。所以我所说的是从我们的角度来看，他不会理性行动。从他的角度来看，理性就是他要夺取台湾。无论世界上其他人说什么，他们相信他们现在有足够的实力来抵抗美国的制裁。他们将建立邪恶轴心的联盟。你只需要看看习近平访问过谁。你有他访问沙特，你有他访问委内瑞拉。他告诉了世界头号战犯，他与之有无限的合作伙伴关系。我们的财政部长是怎么在那里增加更多会议的？就好像在我认为和现实之间存在着巨大的差距。我每天醒来都觉得自己要疯了。所以我认为他在自己的心目中是理性的，但从我们的角度来看，他并不理性。Kyle，我们喜欢你对所有事情的直言不讳。好了，该轮到你了。
Hi, I'm Kai. I'm also an Internet the Vandenberg coalition. My question is regarding Southeast Asia. So a lot of Chinese soft power and economic power is in Southeast Asia. And as someone whose family in Singapore grew up in Singapore 20 years, that's very concerning to me. Do you think that the US has any sway in Southeast Asia if China were to do anything to Taiwan in terms of holding China economically accountable, as you said in your speech? Yeah, you're. And if we could get the mic over to the gentleman right here with the yellow tie. Thank you sir.
嗨，我是凯。我也是互联网的文登堡联盟成员。我的问题与东南亚有关。因为中国在东南亚拥有很多软实力和经济实力，作为在新加坡长大的家庭的一员，这让我非常担忧。您认为如果中国对台湾采取任何行动，美国是否有影响力来对东南亚施加压力，就像您在演讲中提到的那样，将中国经济责任化？是的，是的。如果可以，请把话筒传给右边黄领带的男士。谢谢您。
So your point your point is well taken. Taiwan isn't the prize. Taiwan is a stepping stone to Southeast Asia and also to Oceana.
你的观点很好理解。台湾不是目标，而是通往东南亚和大洋洲的跳板。
You know, we fought some really big battles in World War II on the Marshall Islands, right, and the Solomon's. And so when you think about Southeast Asia and the noceana writ large, China has been methodically changing the organizational structure of Oceana, bribing them, putting, I mean, I'm sure you saw, they just announced they're putting an embassy in the Solomon Island yesterday.
你知道的，我们在二战时期在马绍尔群岛和所罗门群岛进行了一些非常激烈的战斗，对吗？所以当你考虑东南亚和整个大洋洲地区时，中国一直以来都在有计划地改变大洋洲的组织结构，贿赂他们，而且，我的意思是，我相信你一定看到了，他们刚刚宣布昨天要在所罗门群岛设立大使馆。
We are fighting as much as we can, but again, they don't operate in the rules based order. They bribe, coerce, they influence. They do things that we can't do. Now we can help build things and enter economic partnerships, but we can't pay off leadership like they do.
我们正在尽最大努力进行抗争，但他们仍然不遵守基于规则的秩序。他们贿赂、胁迫、影响他人。他们做出了我们无法做到的事情。虽然我们可以帮助建设和参与经济伙伴关系，但我们无法像他们一样贿赂领导层。
So they have really set an influence campaign in the in Oceana and in Southeast Asia. We have our allies, right, Singapore. I don't know, Singapore might split down the middle. Sorry.
所以他们真的在大洋洲和东南亚进行了一场影响力运动。我们有我们的盟友，对吧，新加坡。我不知道，新加坡可能会在中间分裂。抱歉。
But when you think about the Philippines and you think about Japan, some of our greatest allies over there care very much about this. I'll tell you one of our senior military leaders who I'm close to, maybe the senior most one over there went and met with the Japanese Defense Minister. And the Japanese Defense Minister said something really interesting. He said, this is the largest existential crisis Japan has ever faced. And we said respectfully, you know, ever, I mean, this is up there, right? He said, no, ever. And so to me, that told me, Japan knows how vital this potential conflict is to them. And we, of course, have very strong militaristic ties to Japan. And we have article five protections with them.
但是当你想到菲律宾和日本时，我们在那里的一些最伟大的盟友非常关心这个问题。我会告诉你一个我亲近的高级军事领导人，也许是那里最高级的军事领导人，他去见了日本的国防大臣。这位日本国防大臣说了一些非常有意思的话。他说，这是日本面临的最大生存危机。我们表示尊重地说，你是说迄今为止吗，我是说，这是重大问题，对吧？他说不，就是迄今为止。所以对我来说，这告诉我，日本知道这个潜在冲突对他们有多重要。当然，我们与日本有着非常紧密的军事联系。我们与他们有第五条款保护。
So the long way of saying this is Taiwan is a stepping stone to Southeast Asia. And if we allow this to happen, then the countries of Southeast Asia will have to arm and fight or submit to China's rule. And this is China's plan, if for those of you that have read unrestricted warfare, right, they have to secure the first island chain by a certain date, and then the second island chain, and then they move on. They actually have a plan, and they've had this plan for a long time. And so we have to stop it.
所以，长话短说，台湾是通往东南亚的跳板。如果我们允许这种情况发生，那么东南亚国家将不得不武装起来并与中国作战，否则就只能接受中国的统治。这就是中国的计划，如果你们中有人读过《超限战》，就会明白他们必须在特定日期前确保控制第一岛链，然后是第二岛链，接着向前推进。他们确实有一个计划，并且已经酝酿了很长时间。我们必须阻止这种情况发生。
Sir, we're going to you. And then we have two questions here and back there. Yes. Eric Rosenman from the Jewish Policy Center. We have seen repeatedly in the press that American analysts have quoted, he's telling his military to be ready to take Taiwan by 2027. You're saying 12 to 18 months, perhaps. And your expertise is fiscal. You said not necessarily military, but you're in touch with military experts. Are we in a position, if it comes sooner rather than later, and even four years is maybe not that much of a warning or preparation time, is it your sense that the US military can do anything other than suffer perhaps a very serious defeat if pushed earlier?
先生，我们要找您。然后我们有两个问题这里和那边。是的。来自犹太政策中心的Eric Rosenman。我们一再在媒体上看到美国分析师引述他的话，他告诉他的军队要准备好在2027年夺取台湾。您说可能是12到18个月。您的专长是财政领域。您说不一定是军事方面，但您与军事专家保持联系。如果事情比预期的早发生，即使是四年的时间可能也不足以进行警告或准备，您认为美国军事能做些什么，除了可能会遭受严重失败的情况？
Yeah, let me disevaluate of that thought. We have a plan. We have a very strong plan. We know we can win. We just need to go. And it's going to be ugly. If we have to execute that way with our allies and strategic partners in the region, they're going to be tens of thousands of lives lost. And then one wants that to happen. But please don't believe in this sense of fatalism that we're so far behind that we don't know what to do.
是的，让我对那个想法进行负面评估。我们有一个计划。一个非常强大的计划。我们知道我们能够取胜。我们只需要行动起来。而且这将会是一场残酷的战役。如果我们必须与地区的盟友和战略伙伴一起执行这个计划，会有成千上万条生命付出代价。没有人希望这种情况发生。但请不要相信我们已经落后太久，不知道该怎么办的宿命感。
You know, China has, you think about this, I think in 2010, China had 35 ships in their Navy. And now they've got 350 ships in their Navy and they're building a Navy. They have 11 shipyards running 24 seven. We have two that have like union problems. So, you know, our country's gone somewhere where we need to fix a few things.
你看，中国现在的海军，想想看，我记得2010年的时候他们的海军只有35艘船。而现在他们有350艘船，并且还在不断建设海军。他们拥有11个全天候运行的造船厂，而我们只有两个，而且还存在工会问题。所以，我们国家已经出现了一些需要解决的问题。
But in their Navy being that large as far as a ship counts concern, they have two aircraft carriers. One was a junker from the Ukraine that a Chinese businessman bought to turn it into a casino. And in the end, it was an MSS guy wanting to flip it into a aircraft carrier. That's the landing. They built one. They're building another one. Both of their aircraft carriers run on diesel. So we have 11 carrier strike groups that all run on nuclear. We're still ahead on the naval side and advance weaponry side and they haven't fought a war. We, you know, at least have some people that can that can really move this needle forward. You probably saw the US just took Admiral Sam Paparo, whose commander at Pacific Fleet nominated him to be the chief of the Navy. His Senate confirmation hearing should be in the next couple weeks. And we have people in the right places. We have the right people in the right places. We have the right equipment.
根据船只计数来说，他们的海军规模庞大，拥有两艘航空母舰。其中一艘是来自乌克兰的破烂货，一个中国商人买下来打算将其改装成赌场，但结果是国家安全部的一个人希望将其改建成航空母舰。这就是他们的舰队。他们建造了一艘，正在建造另一艘。他们两艘航空母舰都使用柴油作为燃料，而我们拥有11个全都使用核能的航空母舰编队。在海军和先进武器方面，我们仍然领先他们，而且他们还没有参与过战争。至少我们有一些能够推动进步的人。你可能已经看到美国刚刚任命了萨姆·帕帕罗上将，他是太平洋舰队指挥官，被提名为海军首长。他的参议院确认听证会将在接下来的几周内进行。我们在适当的位置上有适合的人才，我们拥有合适的装备。
This isn't something that we want. And we never want to execute this. But I can tell you, without beyond a shadow of a doubt, we have a plan. And our plan is a devastating plan to China.
这并不是我们所期望的事情，我们从来不想执行这个计划。但是我可以毫不怀疑地告诉你，我们有一个计划，这个计划对中国来说是毁灭性的。
You have a question. Hi, my name is Kevin from Georgetown University. So in examining all instruments of national power, what is military diplomatic or economic, has American diplomacy like failed us so that we have to resort to using potentially military power. And to that extent, you know, how should we integrate, you know, all these instruments to effectively deter China?
您有一个问题。嗨，我是来自乔治城大学的凯文。所以，在审查国家所有的权力工具，包括军事、外交或经济方面，美国的外交政策是否失败，以至于我们必须借助潜在的军事力量。在这个程度上，我们应该如何整合所有这些工具，以有效地遏制中国？
Yeah. So this question about American for a policy or diplomacy. You know, we have obviously adopted what I call, we've energized the appeasement caucus, name a time in which appeasement against autocratic despots has ever worked. It never works. Right. What you learn is deterrence through strength is the only path forward. So the current path of our country is embarrassing to me. And, and by the way, I need to tell you from a political perspective, I don't sit on either side. I am pro choice. I own 200 guns and I'm the biggest gun control advocate there is out there. I don't fit in a box. But I think you're a Texan. Yeah, I'm a Texan. But again, a Texan who is number one in gun control. Okay. So I'm not, I don't fit with our governor either. The point I'm trying to make is it's a nonpartisan thing to say that our foreign policy is gone so far in the wrong direction that I actually lose sleep about it at night. It drives me berserk to see the weakness that we're pushing and that this begging and pleading when what we need to do is show strength and be strong. We're the strongest country in the world. And we should start acting that way. And so if it goes to war, it's not a failure per se, a foreign policy, although we're going in the wrong direction.
是啊。这是关于美国对一项政策或外交问题的提问。你知道，我们显然已经采取了我所说的，我们激励了安抚派的 caucus，能否举出一次安抚独裁者曾经起作用的例子？从来没有起作用过。对的。你所了解到的是，唯有通过实力来威慑才是前进的唯一途径。所以我们国家目前的走向让我感到尴尬。顺便说一句，从政治角度来看，我不站在任何一边。我支持选择权，我拥有200支枪支，我是最大的枪支管制倡导者。我不拘泥于任何标签。不过我猜你是德克萨斯人。是的，我是德克萨斯人。但是，作为一个德克萨斯人，我在枪支管制方面是第一位的。好吧，我也不和我们的州长一样。我想说的是，说我们的外交政策走向错误的地步已经超出了党派之争，这让我晚上睡不好觉。看到我们正在推动的软弱和乞求的行为让我发疯，而我们需要做的是展示实力，保持强大。我们是世界上最强大的国家，我们应该开始行动起来。所以，即使走向战争，这也不是外交政策的真正失败，尽管我们走在了错误的道路上。
I don't believe we could have stopped Hitler. If you read Hitler's own notes and you read all of the notes of Churchill, I don't know if you've read Churchill's books and Hitler's notes. Now Hitler was going to invade. There was nothing that was going to dissuade him. Now, if we attacked him when he moved on the Rhineland, that war would have been much smaller. But that's such a tough decision to make amongst a bunch of pacifists and appeasers. You can't attack early and God, I can't imagine us being the first mover. We would never do that now given the way the world is reset.
我认为我们无法阻止希特勒。如果你读过希特勒自己的笔记和丘吉尔的所有笔记，我不知道你是否读过丘吉尔的书和希特勒的笔记。现在希特勒正打算入侵。没有什么能够劝阻他。如果我们在他进军莱茵河以后对他发动进攻，那场战争将会小得多。然而，在一群和平主义者和绥靖派中做出这样的艰难决定是非常困难的。我们不能早早地发动攻击，上帝啊，我无法想象我们会成为先发制人者。考虑到世界现在的形势，我们现在永远不会这样做。
So I'm resigned to believe that if and when it happens, she is going to do this. He's told you since 2017 in every single public speech he's given that he's going to do this. So I'm believing that that's going to happen. And what we've got to do is have everything ready for if and when that happens back to your question. We are the economic powerhouse of the world and Europe is in theory our ally, there are a few that might go the other way. But if we just act in unison, we can shut them down. They've a closed capital account. We can stop this or we can hobble them. And then we'll have a new regime and they can start over. So I think the foreign policy failure question is something where I'm very disappointed where we are. But let's hope we can change that quickly. But I actually don't think foreign policy can fix this.
所以我已经认定，如果这种情况发生了，她会这样做。自2017年以来，他在每一次公开演讲中都告诉过你他要这样做。所以我相信那会发生。而我们需要做的是准备好一切，以备不时之需，回答你的问题。我们是世界经济的强国，欧洲理论上是我们的盟友，尽管可能有一些人会选择另一条路。但如果我们齐心协力，我们可以封锁他们。他们的资本账户是封闭的。我们可以阻止这个或者让他们瘫痪。然后我们会有一个新的政权，他们可以重新开始。所以我认为外交政策的失败问题是让我非常失望的事情，但让我们希望我们能迅速改变这种局面。但实际上，我并不认为外交政策能解决这个问题。
All right. You have a question at the back and then we have one up front and then we're going to move to Dr. you. Okay, but at the back, please.
好的。你有一个后排的问题，然后我们前面还有一个问题，接着我们会去找你，好吗？但是请先坐在后排。
Hi, thanks for a great speech. This is Katia with Voice of America. After the withdrawal of I have treated the US is still like in behind in developing this intermediate range missiles reaching between 3000 to 5500.
你好，非常感谢你的精彩演讲。我是来自美国之音的卡蒂娅。在我们撤军后，我认为美国在研发中程导弹方面仍然落后，这些导弹的射程在3000到5500之间。
Well, China has already fielded over 1200 ballistic and crewed missiles. What does this missile gap mean to the US in the potential conflict over Taiwan? And what is your recommendation to help offset China's missile advantage in the Pacific. Recently, there are some policymakers proposed this ring of fire missile strategy. So I think that the US, the Philippines or Japan to host some shorter range missiles and deploy the long range to Australia Pacific or Guam. But do you think it's feasible or necessary to build this network of conventional missile ground ground based missile in circling China or should the US invest more on nuclear weapons or drones and other weapons system.
中国已经部署了超过1200枚弹道导弹和载人导弹。对于潜在的有关台湾的冲突，这种导弹差距对美国意味着什么？您如何建议帮助抵消中国在太平洋地区的导弹优势？最近，有一些决策者提议实施“火环导弹战略”。所以，我认为美国、菲律宾或日本可以部署一些短程导弹，并将远程导弹部署在澳大利亚太平洋区域或关岛。但您认为在中国周围建立这种常规地面导弹网络是可行或必要的，还是美国应该更多地投资于核武器、无人机和其他武器系统呢？
Not my strong point, although I have my opinions. I think that when you look at our submarine fleet and our Navy, I don't think we need any more missiles. We have plenty and we have the best submarine fleet in the world and that's we are at least a generation, if not to, ahead of China on the submarine fleet. So I don't think that that's encircling China with our missiles is necessarily even a good idea on the land base. But I do think that we have all the firepower we need at the moment. And I don't think the basic missile counts matter. And if you read what the Pentagon says, you know, while China might have more missiles silos than we do. We don't know if there are active missiles in there, they're still building.
虽然我有自己的意见，但这不是我擅长的领域。我认为当我们看着我们的潜艇舰队和海军时，我觉得我们不需要更多的导弹。我们已经拥有很多，并且拥有世界上最好的潜艇舰队，这让我们在潜艇方面至少领先中国一代，甚至更多。因此，我认为用我们的导弹来包围中国甚至不是一个好主意。但我确实认为我们现在拥有足够的火力。我认为基本导弹的数量并不重要。如果你读过五角大楼的说法，你会知道中国可能拥有比我们更多的导弹发射井，但我们不知道那里是否有活跃的导弹，他们还在继续建设。
But the point being is, if you think back to what Churchill was saying in World War II, from the late 1920s on, he's saying, Hey, hey, are you guys looking at what he's building? He's building the biggest air force. He's committed to building the Navy's committed to building more airplanes and more munitions than anyone else. Is anyone paying attention? And we also know there's not going to be another war. Let's just let Neville Chamberlain learn how effects work this out. The point being is China has been hell bent really in the last five years, going exponential on everything military. And we're just starting to wake up to this fact. And it really bothers me too. But again, it's all par for the course. If you think he's really going to do what he's going to do. It's I think, unfortunately, I believe that's likely to happen.
但关键是，如果回想起丘吉尔在二战期间说的话，从20世纪20年代末开始，他在说：“嘿，嘿，你们看到他在构建什么吗？他正在建设最庞大的空军。他致力于建设比任何其他国家都多的飞机和弹药。”有人在关注吗？而且我们也知道不会再有战争了。让内维尔·张伯伦自己去解决问题吧。关键是中国在过去的五年中一直在全力推进军事建设。我们现在才开始意识到这个事实，这真的让我很不安。但再说一遍，这都是常规操作。如果你认为他会真的做他打算做的事，我认为不幸的是，我相信那很有可能发生。
So we have your question. We'll hear from Dr. Yu. And with his permission, I'm going to ask one last wrap up. Oh, we just saw you in the back. Okay, we'll take yours in right there. And we're going to close with that.
所以我们收到了您的问题。接下来，我们将请Dr. Yu发表意见。在得到他的许可后，我将提出一个总结性的问题。哦，我们刚刚看到您在后面。好的，我们会处理您的问题。然后我们就会结束了。
Yes. Hi, I'm Kathy. And I now intern project 2049. And I'm from Taiwan. And I used to work in legislative UN for two years. I agree with what you say, because we've put too much focus on Western, the risk China, but China is also also direct for the world. So my question is how Taiwan and the world can prepare for China that is the risking from the world. And how this say do gap. Like we were aware, Ned, about like China is going to the risk of world, but how can we overcome this say do gap in this democratic countries, especially us and Western countries. Thank you.
是的。嗨，我叫Kathy。我目前在2049实习项目工作，我来自台湾。过去两年我在立法院联合国工作。我同意你说的，因为我们过于关注西方，风险来自中国，但中国也是世界上的直接风险。所以我的问题是台湾和世界如何为来自中国的风险做好准备。以及这种说做差距如何弥合。比如，我们知道中国将成为世界的风险，但我们如何在民主国家，尤其是我们和西方国家克服这种说做差距。谢谢。
Okay, thank you. And let's take that mic all the way to the gentleman in the back if he raises his hand. And no, no, keep yours. Keep yours. We have to please. So again, it goes back to the kind of dogmatic operations of the people sitting in the office today. We all want peace. I think everyone in this room wants peace. But if you know that war is coming, you better start changing your method of operation. And unfortunately, we continue to go down the appeasement pacifist route more and more instead of turning the other way.
好的，谢谢。如果后排的那位先生举手，让我们把话筒传到后排去。不，不，你们手上的话筒还是留下吧。我们必须要尽量满足大家需求。所以，这再次回到了如今坐在办公室里的人们思维僵化的问题。我们所有人都希望和平。我认为在座的每个人都希望和平。但是，如果你知道战争即将到来，你最好开始改变你的操作方式。不幸的是，我们继续走向绥靖主义，越来越少转向其他方向。
And I think I really think we should have turned the other way a long time ago because I know from talking with our senior military leadership, they know this is coming. And our intelligence agencies know this is coming and think it's a high probability event. They don't think it's a super low probability event. So why isn't our leadership in our country acting differently? And they're just in a position where we've had too much peace for too long and they really, really, really want peace and they want to, they really want to project their moral values and I get it. I understand that. But unfortunately, that's not where the world is today. And I think that's where the gap is. Right? Leadership has to change. Has to change quickly. But I would say from having just been there, I think people are really mobilizing and they're aware of what is at stake here.
我认为我们实际上应该很久以前就转向另一条路，因为我通过与我们的高级军事领导人交谈得知，他们知道这将会发生。我们的情报机构也知道这将会发生，并认为这是一个高概率事件。他们并不认为这是一个非常低概率的事件。那么为什么我们国家的领导层没有采取不同的行动呢？他们处于一种太久平和状态下的境地，他们真的非常非常地渴望和平，他们希望传递他们的道德价值观，我明白这一点，我理解这一点。但不幸的是，这并不符合当今世界的现实。我认为这就是差距所在，对吗？领导力必须改变，必须迅速改变。但是我可以说，刚刚回来后，我认为人们正在真正行动起来，他们意识到这里所牵涉的利害关系。
Dr. You were going to go take him and then come to you and then me. Please.
您要去接他，然后再到您那里，最后再到我这里。拜托了。
Tom Lyons for 2430 Group. You got to speak up. Sorry, it's hard to hear.
Tom Lyons 向2430 Group的人说话。你必须大声说。对不起，很难听清楚。
2430 Group. Question for you. What do you make of the new appointment to the PVOC over the weekend? And then what advice do you have for multinationals that have operations based there?
2430集团。我有一个问题想请教您。您如何看待上周末对PVOC的新任命？接着，您对那些在那里有业务的跨国公司有什么建议？
First of all, glad to meet you in person. Thanks for coming. Thanks for your service to our country. Anyway, I think that, okay, so a lot of people didn't follow this back to the 20th party Congress where they fired the head of their central bank, the head of their treasury and the head of their Securities and Exchange Commission all in one day in one failed swoop. I can imagine if we did that. I can imagine what world markets would do.
首先，很高兴能够与你见面。感谢你的到来。感谢你为我们的国家所做的贡献。无论如何，我认为很多人都没有注意到这一点，就是他们在20世纪的党代会上一举免去了央行行长、财政部长和证监会主席这三个职位，这是一次大胆的举措。我可以想象如果我们这样做会发生什么。我可以想象世界市场会有何反应。
So, Yigang, they took out of the PVOC and just a few weeks later quietly reinstalled him. Now, we were just kidding. I mean, the rest of the world hated the fact that he got ripped out of the PVOC. On the Saturday of 4th of July weekend, about a week ago, they quietly fired him again. So they fired him, rehired him, fired him. And it's in a period of time when the Yuan, both onshore and offshore, was massively devaluing. So they fired him 5% in a week. And that was really worrying, China. So they were in the middle of a currency crisis and they fired their central banker. That's not the crisis operation you should engage in at that moment in time.
所以，易刚，他们把他从PVOC中开除了，然后几周后又悄悄地重新聘用他。我们只是开玩笑。我的意思是，全世界其他地方非常不满他被从PVOC中撤职的事实。就在一个星期前的7月4号周末的星期六，他们悄悄地再次解雇了他。所以他们解雇了他，重新雇佣了他，又解雇了他。而且这正是人民币在岸和离岸汇率大幅贬值的时候。在短短一个星期内，他们贬值了5%。这让中国非常担心。他们正处于货币危机之中，却解雇了他们的央行行长。那不是你应该在那个时刻进行的应急措施。
So I think it was a move of panic. I think it was a move of, it was a sophomore move in capital markets. You have to remember that Chinese have only been at this capital markets game for 20 plus years. So I think they are still really green, really new at capital markets. The problem is the size of their market in nominal terms is so much larger than their GDP. And so they've got like 20 plates spending all the time. And if one plate drops, the others are shortly behind.
所以我认为这是一种恐慌的举动。我认为这是一个资本市场里的新手举动。你必须记住，中国人在资本市场游戏中只有20多年的经验。所以我认为他们在资本市场上还非常稚嫩，非常新手。问题在于，他们市场的规模在名义上远远大于他们的国内生产总值。他们有像20个旋转的盘子一直在运转。如果其中一个盘子掉下来，其他的盘子也会很快跟着。
So I think it's a big deal that Yigang kind of did the on again, off again, off again moves. It's fascinating to me to see truthfully, I was with my son and the Bahamas spearfishing. I had a friend to ask me 5 days later, and I follow this stuff as closely as I can, especially the financial side. I missed it. I'll be the first one to admit, I missed it. And that was intentional by China. Saturday on 4th of July weekend, it's a perfect day to tell us, to just remove him and put someone else in and pretend nothing ever happened. It was fascinating.
所以我认为易刚来回地做出这样的举动是一件大事。对我来说，真的很有趣。当时我和儿子一起在巴哈马潜水捕鱼，后来有个朋友在5天后问我，我尽量紧密地关注这些事情，尤其是财经方面。我错过了。我将第一个承认，我错过了。而这是中国故意做出的。在七月四日周末的星期六，这是一个完美的日子告诉我们，只要换一个人进来，假装什么都没有发生过。真的很有趣。
Miles, let's get yours, then mine, we're going to wrap then, and you'll get to be one on one with our guest speaker. Ajay, thank you very much. I think it's due to the constraint of time. I'm going to yield my time to you for sure. You are. Okay. Well, thank you. All right. Well, thank you. You're very gracious. I have the mic right here. My wrap up question for you is, and I can't help myself because I do follow Ukraine very closely. And something you said reminded me, lessons learned. We're in the midst of what's happening right now with Ukraine. And it said over and over what happens in Ukraine, and if there's a successful outcome, that will send a signal to Xi Jinping.
迈尔斯，让我们先用你的时间，然后是我的，之后我们会结束封闭讨论，然后你将有机会与我们的嘉宾进行一对一交流。阿贾伊，非常感谢你。我认为这是因为时间的限制。我会毫不犹豫地把时间让给你。没错，就是这样。好的，非常感谢你。好的，非常感谢你，你非常慷慨。我现在握着麦克风。我对你的总结问题是，由于我非常关注乌克兰的事态发展，所以我忍不住会提问。你所说的某些话让我想起了乌克兰正在发生的事情。一再强调，乌克兰的发展局势将向习近平发出信号。
Okay. Potentially, potentially not. But something you said earlier, very fast, Putin in 2007 at the Munich Security Conference, he actually openly said, Western values are not our values. We have every right to go and invade in any country where you have Russian speakers and ethnic Russians. And then we saw 2008, Georgia. Well, Chachina before that, 2008, Georgia, 2014, Ukraine, and then just last year. What is the core lesson learned and that you, the core message you want to impart to this audience here? You actually just stated it for me. It was perfect. And you and I met over Ukraine at the Bush Center. And I think exactly, you just put it together perfectly. I think that Putin told you where he was going and what he was going to do. Now, he didn't tell you he was going to blow up his own apartment building to start Chachina. But he did go take Georgia very quickly. He took Kremea and Savasthapol next in 2014.
好的。可能是，也可能不是。但你之前说过的一件事，普京在2007年的慕尼黑安全会议上，他实际上公开表示，西方价值观不是我们的价值观。我们有权利去侵略任何一个有俄语和俄罗斯族人的国家。然后我们看到了2008年的格鲁吉亚。在此之前是车臣，2008年的格鲁吉亚，2014年的乌克兰，然后就是去年。你想给这个观众群体传达的核心教训和核心信息是什么？你刚才已经为我讲述了。完美无缺。我和你曾在布什中心讨论过乌克兰问题。我认为，你刚好将一切完美地串联起来了。我认为普京告诉了你他要去哪里，他要做什么。现在，他并没有告诉你他会炸毁自己的公寓楼来开始车臣战争。但他确实很快地夺取了格鲁吉亚。接着在2014年他夺取了克里米亚和塞瓦斯托波尔。
Here's also a fun fact. If you just think about this. I've been on the boards of some of the largest financial institutions in America as far as endowments are concerned. And so when you think about institutional asset allocation and investing in various markets, institutions had fairly large sums of money invested in Russia. I helped craft an institutional compliance program or a sanctions compliance program in 2017. And I stood up on the stage and I was beating drum saying, why do we have money in Russia? I'm trying to understand. You know, he took Georgia no way. He took Kremea and Savasthapol in 2014. And why do we have $350 million invested in Russia? They said, well, because it's cheap. Super cheap. They gave me a 60 page power point, which I still have. And I said, I think it's insane. We're insane to have money in Russia. Half of these companies were investing in Russia. The Russian government owns more than half the company.
这还是一个有趣的事实。如果你想一想的话。就我所知，就捐赠来说，我曾担任过一些美国最大金融机构的委员会成员。因此，当你考虑机构的资产配置和在各种市场上的投资时，机构在俄罗斯投资的金额相当庞大。我参与了一个机构合规计划或制裁合规计划的制定，于2017年站在舞台上大声质疑，为什么我们要在俄罗斯投资呢？我正试图理解。你知道，他们占领了乔治亚，还在2014年占领了克里米亚和塞瓦斯托波尔。为什么我们要在俄罗斯投资3.5亿美元呢？他们说，因为便宜。超级便宜。他们给了我一份60页的幻灯片，我现在还留着。我说，我觉得这太疯狂了。我们在俄罗斯投资是疯了。其中一半的公司都在投资俄罗斯。俄罗斯政府拥有超过半数的公司。
Like cheap. It's cheap for a reason. They can just take it away. And he's not a good guy. And it's a terrible place for our money. And by the way, so is China. It's an awful place for our money. And here's why. And I was saying that in 2017. And I was overruled. And the day that Putin invaded, 350 million lit on fire. And these institutions can sweep small amounts of money under the table. If you have $100 billion, what's 350 million bucks? It actually doesn't even make the news, by the way. It just goes away. And your constituents probably don't even know it. But in China, you can't sweep $5 billion under the rug if you've got $100 billion. You're going to have to talk about it. And so, I think that the lesson learned is Putin's invasion of Ukraine was really important all across the board. From the force perspective, from the diplomatic perspective, from understanding the psyche of madmen. And then the financial markets. And financial markets, think about back to World War II. After World War I, it was the US and Britain lending Hitler the money to build his force back up to come at us with. We lent him the billions of dollars to build his force back. We are building China's entire PLA, Navy, Army. And with US money, we've got $3 trillion worth of PP&E and FDI invested in China. I think it's insane that we keep investing their money. And I know many of us have worked together to try to keep the thrift savings plan of the US military from investing in Chinese companies. I mean, you can't even make that up. One day there's going to be a book written about this.
就像便宜一样。它之所以便宜是有原因的。他们只需要把它拿走。而且他不是个好人。对于我们的钱来说，那是个可怕的地方。顺便说一下，中国也是。那对我们的钱来说是个糟糕的地方。以下是原因。我在2017年就这么说了。然而我被否决了。普京入侵的那一天，3.5亿美元化为乌有。这类机构可以将少量的资金藏起来。如果你有1000亿美元，那么3.5亿美元算什么？实际上，这甚至不会上新闻，顺便说一句。它只会消失。而且你的选民可能都不知道。但在中国，如果你有1000亿美元，是不能掩盖50亿美元的。你将不得不谈论它。因此，我认为普京入侵乌克兰对各方面都非常重要。从力量的角度，从外交的角度，从理解疯子的心理角度，还有金融市场的角度上。再想想二战。一战后，美国和英国借给希特勒重建他的力量，以便对付我们。我们借给他数十亿美元来重建他的力量。我们正在为中国的整个海军和陆军建设提供美国的资金。我们在中国投资了3万亿美元的固定资产和外国直接投资。我认为我们继续投资他们的钱简直是疯了。我知道我们许多人一起努力，试图阻止美国军队的节约储蓄计划投资中国公司。我是指这都难以置信。总有一天会有人写一本关于这个问题的书。
Miles, you and the China Center here at Hudson, thank you for inviting Kyle Bass. If I may, please join us in thanking what an outstanding presentation we are delighted you are here today. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
迈尔斯，你和哈德森的中国中心，感谢你们邀请凯尔·巴斯。如果可以的话，请加入我们一起感谢他所做出的出色演讲，我们非常高兴你今天能来到这里。谢谢你。谢谢你。谢谢你。谢谢你。
It should be called the Financial Interpretation of China's Logic of Aggression. So, thank you very much. And with all this green assessment and green convincing, I'm going to present you with a token of appreciation, which is a symbol of honey, peas and harmony, which is the Winnie de Pooh. I love it. Thank you, Miles. Thank you. I love it. This will be on my table every morning. Excellent. Thank you. Thank you.
它应该被称为中国侵略逻辑的金融解读。非常感谢。在所有这些绿色评估和绿色说服力的背景下，我将为您呈上一份感激之情的象征，这是蜂蜜、豌豆和和谐的象征，也就是维尼熊。我喜欢它。谢谢你，Miles。谢谢。我喜欢它。每天早上这都会摆在我的桌上。太棒了。谢谢。谢谢。