EV Sales: Cause for Concern? / Landmark Autonomous Win / Model 3 Production ⚡️

Hey everybody Rob Merritt here and today we are going to be talking about a couple of updates on Gotcha! Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis.

大家好，这里是Rob Merritt，今天我们将要讨论一些Gotcha的更新！欢迎来到电动世界，我是你的主持人Dylan Loomis。

So first up today we have the president of the Tesla Hawaii Club. That was on a call last night sharing some ways if anybody out there wants to help. Some of the members over in Hawaii from the wildfires. One of the best vacations I ever had was actually in Maui. I came across this so I'll put these links below if any of you have the means and feel compelled to help.

今天首先我们有特斯拉夏威夷俱乐部的俱乐部主席。他在昨晚的电话会议上分享了一些方法，以便帮助夏威夷的一些成员应对山火。我曾经度过的最好的假期之一实际上是在毛伊岛。我找到了一些相关链接，如果你们中任何人有条件和愿意帮助的话，我会将这些链接放在下面。

Bringing everybody up to speed, Canada is only getting Model 3 and wise now from China because Tesla wants to keep all of the inventory from Fremont for the United States for tax credits. Because of that there have been some changes like lower range figures as well as the inability to order the white interior. But now there is some hope we have some white interior models showing up in inventory across Canada, Eastern and Western. Just not an option yet on the design studio but hopefully it's coming.

为了方便大家了解情况，加拿大现在只从中国进口Model 3以及智驱版车型，因为特斯拉想要保留弗里蒙特的所有库存给美国以获得税收优惠。因此，出现了一些变化，比如续航里程降低，无法订购白色内饰等。但现在我们在加拿大的库存中看到了一些白色内饰的车型，不分东西部。虽然在设计工作室中还没有这个选项，但希望它会很快出现。

Racewood shared this photo of the Cybertruck apparently tolling with a light bar on the front, perhaps an accessory from Tesla. And this odd 52 on the side, some were speculating maybe that's how many Cybertrucks there are. That's not too far fetched but I don't know what to make of that to be honest.

Racewood分享了一张Cybertruck的照片，似乎在前部安装了一个光线条，可能是特斯拉的一个配件。而且车身侧面的奇怪数字52，有人猜测可能是Cybertruck的数量。这个猜测可能并不离谱，但说实话，我不知道如何解释。

We got the Tesla China production numbers for July, that was 80,345. I saw some people talking about how it was about 16,000 units more than the wholesale figure. But if you go back to October of 2022 which was also a first month of the quarter, they also saw about 16,000 extra units produced. Again, they're trying to unwind the delivery wave but it's not un-lown yet. So most of these vehicles will be in transit at this point.

我们获取了特斯拉中国7月的产量数据，总数为80,345辆。我看到有些人讨论这个数字比批发数量多了大约16,000辆。但是如果回顾到2022年10月，那也是一个季度的第一个月，他们也生产了大约16,000辆多余的车辆。同样，他们正在努力减少交付高峰，但目前还没有完全减少下来。所以，这些车辆中的大部分将处于在途运输状态。

This time around I do think it's worth taking a look at the 3 and Y production breakdown with all of the highland speculation. So model 3 production for the month 22.7,000 which was down from quarter 2 where we saw 30,000, 26.6 and 27.4,000. However, the figure for July was still actually higher than January and February of this year. And the Model Y production number of 57.6,000 was short of only one other month that was March earlier this year when it eclipsed 60,000. I would expect model 3 production to fall even further in August as this would be the main month for those upgrades if this official highland production is actually going to start in September.

这次我认为有必要关注一下关于高地推测的3和Y车型的生产情况。所以，这个月Model 3的产量为22.7万辆，较第二季度的30万辆、26.6万辆和27.4万辆有所下降。然而，7月份的数据实际上仍高于今年1月和2月的数据。而Model Y的产量为57.6万辆，仅次于今年3月的60万辆。如果官方的高地生产计划在9月份开始，我预计8月份Model 3的产量将进一步下降，因为这将是升级的主要月份。

The car dealership guy said he's on a call right now with an exec from a multibillion dollar auto company, he asked him about EV sales and the guy's response, Tesla is the apple of EVs, everyone else is Android. Personally, I think everyone else's Android is a bit generous.

汽车经销商表示他正在与一家市值数十亿美元的汽车公司高管通话，他问起了有关电动汽车销售的情况，对方回答说，特斯拉是电动汽车界的“苹果”，其他人都是“安卓”。就个人而言，我认为其他人的“安卓”称得有点慷慨。

For those of you in Massachusetts, there's a more EV program with some new EV incentives in addition to the $3,500 rebates that were already in place. We're talking about point of sale rebates for participating dealers and a $3,500 rebate for used EVs. Of course, if you qualify, look into it if you're interested.

对于马萨诸塞州的朋友们，除了已经存在的3500美元优惠券，还有一个更多的电动车计划，包括一些新的电动车激励措施。我们正在谈论参与经销商的销售点优惠券和3500美元的二手电动车优惠券。当然，如果符合条件，如果您有兴趣，可以了解一下。

California Public Utilities Commission has officially voted and granted Waymo and cruised the ability to operate Robotaxes 24-7 for fair rides in San Francisco. This makes San Francisco the first city in the world to have two companies offering fully operational paid autonomous taxi services and puts autonomous vehicles on the fast track toward widespread use in California. Again, I think widespread use is a bit premature, but more on that in a second.

加利福尼亚公共事业委员会已正式投票并批准Waymo和Cruise在旧金山提供全天候自动出租车服务。这使得旧金山成为全球第一个有两家公司提供全面运营的有偿自动驾驶出租车服务的城市，并将自动驾驶车辆快速推向在加利福尼亚广泛使用的轨道。再次强调，我认为在广泛使用方面还为时过早，但稍后再详细说。

Essentially, before this ruling, there were time and use restrictions, but now anybody that downloads the apps can now use this service 24-7. But of course, it can't go out of certain parts of San Francisco because the companies have not yet mapped to those areas. And cruised Waymo both said they don't plan on immediately adding new vehicles to the network, but they'll slowly increase their fleets.

在此判决之前，对于使用这些应用来说存在时间和使用方面的限制，但是现在任何下载了这些应用的人都可以全天候使用这项服务。但是当然，由于这些公司尚未将其服务区域映射到旧金山的某些地区，所以该服务在那些区域以外无法使用。Cruise和Waymo都表示，他们不打算立即向网络中添加新车辆，而是会逐步增加车队规模。

So yes, absolutely. This is a win for the autonomous industry. However, it's not going to roll out without backlash from public officials and of course the public themselves. This has been a huge public nightmare. And even if they are allowed to expand their operations, I think you're going to continually see negative public sentiment. Groups are going to continue to rally and they're going to now create YouTube channels to continually rat out the behavior of cars when it turns out to be not very productive and or unsafe. And so it's kind of surprising that cruises Waymo are pushing so hard in San Francisco because clearly it's not just the city officials, but the public is not crazy about this car. And even if they do win the vote, I do not see smooth sailing ahead.

所以，是的，绝对是自动驾驶行业的一次胜利。然而，这并不意味着没有公众官员和公众本身的强烈抵触。这是一场巨大的公众噩梦。即使他们被允许扩大运营，我认为你将会持续看到负面的公众情绪。团体将继续集会，并创建YouTube频道，以持续揭示这些车辆的行为，尤其当它们被证明不太有效或不安全时。令人惊讶的是，Cruise和Waymo在旧金山如此努力，因为显然不仅市政官员，而且公众对这种车并不热衷。即使他们赢得了投票，我也不认为前方会有一帆风顺的局面。

As we've said on the channel many times before, it's definitely going to be a bumpy ride, but it's one of those situations everybody just has to keep their eyes on the prize where we do have autonomous vehicles that are actually safer than humans. And we can start to reduce the annual death toll from vehicle accidents. So just be prepared for the negativity and the pushback, but this really is a landmark approval and will absolutely help to pave the way for Tesla once they get to the point of rolling out their Robotaxi network. However, they may choose to do so.

正如我们在频道上多次提到的，这绝对是一段坎坷的旅程，但每个人都必须将目光聚焦在我们拥有比人类更安全的自动驾驶车辆上。我们可以开始减少每年因车祸导致的死亡人数。所以要做好准备迎接负面和反对声音，但这确实是一项具有里程碑意义的批准，并将绝对有助于为特斯拉在推出其Robotaxi网络时铺平道路，不论他们选择以何种方式推出。

We have a small Tesla megapack project that'll be setting up shop in St. John in Canada. This will support a wind farm and it sounds like it's just around three megapacks. They'll be installed at the Somerset substation early next year, but I wanted to share this one because this is a repeat customer. They did a first project using Tesla megapacks and they came back for more, which of course is a great sign.

我们有一个小型的特斯拉超级电池组项目，将在加拿大的圣约翰开展业务。这将支持一个风场，听起来只需要三个超级电池组。它们将于明年年初安装在萨默塞特变电站，但我想分享这个项目，因为这是一位老客户。他们之前做过一个使用特斯拉超级电池组的项目，并且这次他们又回来了，这当然是一个很好的迹象。

Elon said FSD beta 11.4.7 should be going to a wide release within one week. We'll see version 12, which is almost a total rewrite around 99% AI is being tested by our quality assurance drivers. Too much new code to go to the public yet, but it's mind blowing. I am. Oh boy, would I love to be creed right now. Quality ashwits. No, no, no, no, no, but I'm getting close.

埃隆说，FSD beta 11.4.7应该在一周内面向广泛发布。我们将会推出版本12，这几乎是一个完全重写的版本，大约99%的人工智能正在由我们的质量保证驾驶员进行测试。新代码太多，还不能对公众开放，但它令人惊叹。我是说，哦天啊，我现在多么希望能成为克里德。质量测试即将接近完成。

Mexico now reported that Tesla has requested environmental permits for the construction of a warehouse. And this project represents an estimated investment of $90 million. And of course, the factory eventually will be about a $5 billion investment. I'll say it again. I'd be surprised if we don't see an official celebratory ground breaking at Gigamexico in the next month.

墨西哥现在报道说，特斯拉已经申请了建造仓库的环境许可证。这个项目预计投资9000万美元。当然，这个工厂最终将是一个约50亿美元的投资。我再说一遍，如果我们在下个月不见到Gigamexico的官方庆祝奠基仪式，我会感到惊讶的。

We've talked a fair amount about being in the chasm on the adoption curve after the early adopters, but right before that early majority. The EV market share in January of this year was 7.1% and fast forward through the first six months of this year, and it sits at exactly the same 7.1%. So for the first half of this year, we've essentially flatlined. Honestly, though, I think part of the problem is this chart right here. No one else is really stepping up to offer affordable, attractive EVs outside of Tesla. Of course, the Chevy Bolt has been popular, but that car, as we know it is ending as it transitions, we think to an Altium vehicle.

我们已经谈论了很多关于在早期采用者后和早期多数人之前，在采纳曲线上处于峡谷的问题。今年一月份的电动车市场份额为7.1%，经过今年上半年，这个数字仍然是7.1%。所以在今年上半年，我们基本上没有增长。然而，老实说，我认为问题的一部分在于这个图表。除了特斯拉，没有其他公司真的能够推出价格实惠、具有吸引力的电动车。当然，雪佛兰Bolt车型相当受欢迎，但是我们知道，它将结束并转型为Altium车型。

Despite the slowdown from a market share perspective this year, EV registrations are still up 62% over the first half of 2022. And not only are some of the legacy automakers struggling to actually produce EVs, but now some of them are planning to maybe pull back some of their EV production goals until they feel out the market a bit more. And now that we may be through most of the early adopters, we could have harder growth days ahead, but I still think a lot of this boils down to education, especially around the cost. There are so many articles out there talking about things like this, how the average transaction price for an EV was 53.4,000 compared to 48.8,000 for all ice-light vehicles. But very rarely do I see any of these articles say anything about total cost of ownership, and we need to get more people into that mindset.

尽管今年从市场份额角度来看，电动车登记数量有所减缓，但与2022年上半年相比，仍增长了62％。不仅如此，一些传统汽车制造商不仅难以实际生产电动汽车，现在有些汽车制造商甚至计划在进一步观察市场情况后可能会收回一部分电动汽车生产目标。而且，现在我们可能已经通过了大多数早期采用者的阶段，未来的增长可能会更加艰难，但我仍然认为大部分问题归结于教育，特别是成本方面。有很多文章谈论这种情况，比如说电动车的平均交易价格为53.4万美元，而所有传统车型的平均交易价格为48.8万美元。但是我很少看到这些文章提到所有权的总成本，我们需要让更多人掌握这种思维方式。

A silver lining in January of this year, the average EV transaction price was $61,000, so it's coming down slowly. But again, a lot of that is actually going to be driven by Tesla's price cuts because a lot of these new models coming to the market are higher priced luxury vehicles. And I'm not even really blaming those companies for doing it, they have to try to make some money or at least lose less on their early EVs. The problem is doing that is not really going to help places 2 through 13 eat any of the market share of number one, like people have been predicting now for a decade.

在今年一月，平均电动汽车交易价格为61,000美元，所以价格正在慢慢下降。但很大一部分其实是特斯拉的降价所带动的，因为市场上许多新推出的车型都是高价奢华车型。我并不是真正指责这些公司这样做，他们不得不试图获利或者至少减少早期电动车的亏损。问题是这样做并不能真正帮助2到13名的车企蚕食第一名的市场份额，就像人们过去十年一直在预测的那样。

Some justice has been served, George Noble, who opened up an ETF basically to short Tesla, go long oil and gas, and he was a vocal critic of Tesla, Cathie Wood and all of that scene. Well, his fund is now done trading after losses of around 60% since the launch last September. It was an ETF that said nope to ignoring valuations and nope to asset bubbles. Well, now the market said nope to betting against Tesla.

有些公正已经实现了。乔治·诺布尔开设了一个基金进行特斯拉空头交易，同时买入石油和天然气，并公开批评特斯拉、凯瑟琳·伍德和整个相关领域。然而，他的基金自去年9月启动以来亏损了大约60%，现在已经停止交易。该基金原本宣扬不忽视估值和资产泡沫的理念，然而现在市场对押注特斯拉失败说“不”。

I have to give a tip of the cap to Jim Farley for what he's been up to this week, traveling around the country in an F-150 Lightning, using the Electrify America chargers and meeting with some Ford customers to learn what Ford can do better. This right here is exactly what legacy auto needs to do. And you can call it a publicity stunt, but it really does seem like Farley's trying to do the right thing for his shareholders, his customers and his employees.

我不得不向吉姆·法利(Jim Farley)致敬，他在这一周做了一些令人赞赏的事情。他驾驶着一辆F-150闪电版在全国各地旅行，使用Electrify America的充电设施，并与一些福特的客户会面，以了解福特可以做得更好的地方。这正是传统汽车行业所需要做的。你可以称之为公关噱头，但确实看起来法利正在为他的股东、客户和员工做正确的事情。

A quick blurb from RJ Scoringe on Rivian's deal with Tesla for the NACS, he said there's not any data transfer built into their relationship. It's a charging relationship whereby our customers will access the network and ultimately pay for the charging, and that will flow from us through to Tesla. Making the point that the partnership with Tesla will not impact the way Rivian customers payment info and data is processed.

RJ Scoringe在谈到Rivian与特斯拉签订的协议时简短地表示，他们之间的关系没有任何数据传输。这是一种充电关系，我们的客户将通过我们访问特斯拉的充电网络，并最终为充电付费，该付款将经由我们流向特斯拉。他强调与特斯拉的合作不会影响Rivian客户付款信息和数据的处理方式。

I'm Emile Enx and Instagram, linked below. Hope you guys have a wonderful and a safe weekend. Please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters. Thank you.

我是Emile Enx，下面是我的Instagram链接。希望大家周末愉快和安全。如果你们喜欢这个视频，请给它点赞，同时也非常感谢所有给予我支持的Patreon赞助者。谢谢！