Upstart 2023 Q2 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-08-09 13:50:04 来源
Good day and welcome to the upstart second quarter 2023 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, vice president of investor relations. Please go ahead.
大家好，欢迎参加2023年前进的第二季度收益电话会议。今天的会议将被录制。现在，我希望把会议交给投资者关系副总裁Jason Schmidt。请开始。
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss upstart second quarter 2023 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Gerard, upstarts chief executive officer and Sanjay Datta, our chief financial officer.
大家下午好，感谢你们参加今天的电话会议，我们将讨论Upstart公司2023年第二季度的财务结果。今天和大家一起参加电话会议的是Upstart公司的首席执行官Dave Gerard和首席财务官Sanjay Datta。
Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2023 financial results and published and investor relations presentation. Both are available on our investor relations website, IR dot upstart dot com.
在我们开始之前，我想提醒你，今天在市场收盘后不久，Upstart发布了一份新闻稿，宣布了其2023年第二季度的财务结果，并发布了投资者关系介绍。这两份文件都可以在我们的投资者关系网站IR dot upstart dot com上找到。
During the call, we will make four looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter 2023 relating to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these four looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any four looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.
在电话中，我们将提出四个前瞻性陈述，例如关于我们的业务以及未来扩展平台计划的2023年第三季度指引。这些陈述是基于我们当前的期望和截至今日可获得的信息所作出的，并受到各种风险、不确定性和假设的影响。实际结果可能因我们在美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中所描述的各种风险因素而有实质性差异。因此，我们警告您不要过分依赖这些前瞻性陈述。除非法律有要求，否则我们不承担更新任何前瞻性陈述的义务，即使是基于新信息或将来事件的结果。
In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non gap financial measures and are reconciled against our gap results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables.
此外，在今天的电话中，除非另有说明，我们对我们的业绩的引用是以非通用会计原则的财务措施提供的，并且已与我们的通用会计原则的业绩进行了对比，在收益公告和补充表中可以找到相关数据。
To ensure that we can address as many analyst questions as possible during the call, we request that you please limit yourself to one initial question and one follow up.
为了确保我们在电话会议中能够回答尽可能多的分析师提问，请您限制自己的问题在一个初级问题和一个后续问题。
Later this quarter, upstart will be participating in the Goldman Sachs, CommuniCobia Plus Technology Conference, September 7, and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, September 12.
近期，我们的新兴公司将参加9月7日的高盛CommuniCobia Plus科技大会和9月12日的Piper Sandler成长前沿会议。
Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girard, CEO of upstart. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call covering our second quarter, 2023 results. I'm Dave Girard, co-founder and CEO of upstart.
大家下午好。感谢大家参加我们关于2023年第二季度业绩的电话会议。现在我想把话题转交给upstart的首席执行官戴夫·吉拉德。我是upstart的联合创始人和首席执行官。
I told you last quarter that I was hopeful Q1 was a transitional one for upstart, and I continue to believe that's the case. I'm pleased we delivered quarter on quarter growth in Q2 for the first time in more than a year. And more importantly, we achieved record high contribution margin in positive cash flow, a result of our efforts over the past year to improve efficiency and operating leverage in our business. This is despite an environment where banks continue to be super cautious about lending. Interest rates are as high as they've been in decades, and capital markets remain challenged.
我在上一个季度告诉过你，我对第一季度成为初创公司过渡期的希望充满信心，并且我继续相信情况确实如此。我很高兴我们在超过一年以来首次实现了季度环比增长。更重要的是，我们实现了创纪录的高利润率和正现金流贡献，这是我们过去一年努力提高效率和运营杠杆的结果。尽管银行继续对贷款非常谨慎，利率达到了几十年来的最高水平，资本市场仍然面临挑战，但我们依然取得了这一成绩。
A close look at our financials in Q2 suggests that upstart has the opportunity to grow quickly and profitably when we return to a normalized economy. I'm also pleased to see clear signs that inflation is ebbing. Despite a continued strong labor market, our lens on inflation is different from that of others. From our point of view, wage growth in excess of goods inflation is a new and positive development, particularly for the less affluent segments of the U.S. that we tend to serve. The market is increasingly optimistic that the Fed can achieve their 2% inflation target without a serious recession. While the recession remains a possibility, our view is as likely to be a shallow, white-collar recession, one less likely to result in significant unemployment for less affluent Americans. And unlike 18 months ago, the Fed now has readily available tools to handle a significant slowing of the economy. They can lower rates to spur growth once again.
仔细观察我们第二季度的财务状况，可以看出当经济恢复正常时，Upstart将有快速增长和盈利的机会。我也很高兴看到通胀有明显的放缓迹象。尽管劳动力市场仍然强劲，但我们对通胀的观点与其他人不同。从我们的角度来看，工资增长超过商品通胀是一种新的积极发展，特别是对我们服务的美国较为贫困的群体而言。市场越来越乐观，认为联邦储备系统在不引发严重衰退的情况下可以实现2%的通胀目标。尽管衰退仍然有可能发生，我们的观点认为它可能是一个浅层的白领衰退，不太可能导致较为贫困的美国人大规模失业。而与18个月前不同的是，现在联邦储备系统有可用的工具来应对经济的显著放缓。他们可以再次降低利率以刺激增长。
We continue to be confident that our core personal loan risk models are properly calibrated and have been so since November of 2022. Thus, we expect these recent vintages to deliver at or above target returns. Funding markets remain cautious and risk-averse. Banks and credit unions are generally focused on deposits on liquidity, while capital markets are beginning to show signs of normalization. We added another committed capital partner in July, and are in conversations with several more interested parties. We also completed a securitization after the close of Q2 with significantly tighter spreads than our prior deal earlier in the year. Meanwhile, we continue to manage upstart cautiously but optimistically in a funding-constrained environment. Every week, I remind the upstart team to focus maniacally on improving every aspect of our business, strengthening our company for a time when the markets will inevitably return to center.
我们依然对我们的核心个人贷款风险模型的校准非常有信心，此自2022年11月开始已经如此。因此，我们预计这些最近的借贷品种将提供符合或超过目标回报。资金市场仍然谨慎和风险回避。银行和信用合作社通常关注存款和流动性，而资本市场开始显示出正常化的迹象。我们在7月份增加了一名承诺资本合作伙伴，并与其他几个有兴趣的方进行了对话。此外，我们在第二季度结束后完成了一次证券化交易，与今年年初的交易相比，利差显著收窄。与此同时，在资金受限的环境下，我们继续以谨慎但乐观的态度管理创业公司。每周，我提醒我们的团队要疯狂地专注于改善业务的每个方面，为市场必然回归中心的时刻加强我们的公司。
As I said to you last quarter, I focused our team's energy on improving upstart in four key dimensions. First, best rates for all. The core thesis of upstart is that superior AI-enabled risk models will improve access to credit for all. And the company that can build superior risk models faster than anyone else stands to benefit from this dramatic transformation of the lending industry. In this light, I want to share an exciting breakthrough. Something we call parallel timing curve calibration. This is a technique aimed at accelerating the pace of model calibration and thus model development. The challenge with launching a new model and lending is that you have to wait many months to see how it performs in the real world. If you're originating three-year loans, then you need to originate some loans and then watch them perform for 36 months to have clear feedback on model calibration across the timing curve. But with parallel timing curve calibration, the new model can be used to re-underwrite all in-process loans from the past, generating new predictions for how they will perform in their remaining months. This is not a back test. The new model is used to predict how all outstanding loans in the platform will perform in coming months, not how they perform to date. In this way, within a few months, you can have a clear signal as to calibration across all months in the timing curve. This results in a dramatically faster calibration process for new models. From the point of view of our lending partners and credit investors, this is a giant win because it means we provide a tighter and faster feedback loop regarding model performance. We're very excited about its potential to extend our leadership in AI lending and are in the process of patenting this technique.
正如我上个季度对你所说的，我将团队的精力集中在改善“发起人”的四个关键方面。首先，最佳利率适用于所有人。 “发起人”的核心理论是，卓越的AI风险模型将提高所有人获得信贷的机会。能够比任何其他公司更快地建立卓越的风险模型的公司将从这一借贷行业的巨大变革中受益。在这种情况下，我想分享一个令人兴奋的突破。我们称之为“并行时间曲线校准”。这是一种旨在加速模型校准和模型开发进程的技术。在推出新模型和贷款时的挑战在于，你必须等待数月才能看到它在实际世界中的表现。如果你发放为期三年的贷款，那么你需要首先发放一些贷款，然后观察它们在36个月内的表现，以获得有关时间曲线上模型校准的明确反馈。但是，通过并行时间曲线校准，新模型可以用来重新审核过去所有正在进行中的贷款，为其剩余的月份生成新的预测。这不是一个回溯测试。新模型用于预测平台上所有未决贷款未来几个月的表现，而不是过去的表现。通过这种方式，数个月内，您可以获得时间曲线上所有月份校准的明确信号。这使得新模型的校准过程大大加快。从我们的贷款合作伙伴和信贷投资者的角度来看，这是一个巨大的胜利，因为它意味着我们提供了关于模型性能更紧密和更快速的反馈循环。我们对其在AI贷款领域的潜力非常兴奋，并正在申请专利来保护这一技术。
Next, more efficient borrowing and lending. Last quarter, we reached an all-time high of 88% of unsecured loans fully automated. That means instant and automated approval with no waiting, no documents to upload, and no phone calls. This matters a lot because even the most accurate loan pricing model is useless if applying for a loan is too time consuming or laborious. The notion of building an entirely software-driven credit origination process, one that can run 24-7 in a fully lights-out environment, has been with me since Upstart's founding and was inspired by my years at Google. Please bear with me as I share a short story. In 2003, I was interviewing for Roll at Google. The company was still private at the time, so the world knew little about the financial giants that was growing in Mountain View. At one point in the process, the extra-wembered crew just said that I couldn't interview that week at Google because the entire company was skiing at Lake Tahoe. I thought to myself, that's a great company. Then she said, but get this, the company is still making $7 or $8 million a day in revenue. I thought to myself, no, that's an amazing company. And the idea has stuck with me since. So how have we done? In 2016, we began to pursue the goal of fully automated loans, zero human involvement from rate requests through transfer of funds, approved in a matter of seconds, lights-out. By Q2 2017, 29% of our unsecured loans were fully automated. In Q2 2019, it was 64%. In Q2 2021, it was 69%. And in Q2 2023, this past quarter, it was 88%. Automation doesn't just allow us to scale originations faster than headcount. It creates a wow moment for consumers who have never experienced such a fast, effortless loan application process. Recently, we began to brand this fast track. Something we should probably have done years ago. This breakthrough experience is the signature of Upstart and the lenders that we served.
接下来，借贷更高效。上个季度，我们达到了无抵押贷款全自动服务的历史最高水平，达到了88%。这意味着即时自动批准，无需等待、上传文件或打电话。这十分重要，因为即使是最准确的贷款定价模型，如果申请贷款过程太耗时或繁琐，也是无用的。构建一个完全由软件驱动的信贷发起流程的想法自从Upstart成立以来一直与我相伴，受到我在谷歌的岁月的启发。请允许我分享一个小故事。2003年，我在谷歌招聘时。当时公司还是私有化的，所以世界对于在山景城崛起的金融巨头知之甚少。在招聘过程中，有一次，那位特殊组合的工作人员告诉我，我不能在那个星期面试谷歌，因为整个公司都在塔霍湖滑雪。我当时想，这家公司真是太棒了。然后她又说，但是听这个，公司每天仍然有700万到800万美元的收入。我当时想，不，这是一家令人惊叹的公司。这个想法从那时起一直萦绕在我心头。那么我们取得了怎样的成就呢？2016年，我们开始追求全自动贷款的目标，从利率请求到资金转移不需要任何人参与，审批只需几秒钟，一切都在无人值守的状态下进行。到2017年第二季度，我们29%的无抵押贷款已实现全自动化。到2019年第二季度，这个比例为64%。到2021年第二季度，这一比例为69%。而在2023年第二季度，也就是刚刚过去的季度，这一比例达到了88%。自动化不仅使我们能够比人力更快地扩展贷款发起规模，还给那些从未体验过如此快速、轻松的贷款申请流程的消费者带来了惊喜时刻。最近，我们开始给这个快速通道打上品牌。这种突破性的体验是Upstart及我们所服务的贷款人的标志。
Next, more resilient. In addition to ongoing initiatives to strengthen the funding side of our marketplace, we continue to optimize our fixed costs. This increases the leverage in our business so that Upstart can thrive across future economic cycles. In Q2, we identified another $7 million in annual technical infrastructure costs that we can eliminate, bringing our total annual cost savings and tech expenses to nearly $17 million. We continue to hire very modestly and only in strategic situations. We also achieved a contribution margin of 67% are best ever by a long shot. This is a sure sign that our focus on efficiency is bearing fruit.
接下来，更加有弹性。除了持续加强我们市场的资金方面的举措外，我们继续优化我们的固定成本。这增加了我们的业务杠杆，使得Upstart能够在未来的经济周期中蓬勃发展。在第二季度，我们找到了另外700万美元的年度技术基础设施成本可以消除，使我们的年度成本节约和技术开支总额接近1700万美元。我们继续非常谨慎地招聘，并且仅在战略情况下进行。我们还实现了贡献利润率达到67%，大大优于以往。这是我们效率关注取得成果的确切迹象。
A principal driver of this record contribution margin was our efforts to build a stronger relationship with our existing customers. As a result of these efforts, 38% of our originations in Q2 came from repeat borrowers, also a record for us. And as a consequence of that, we also saw record low acquisition costs per loan in Q2.
这个创纪录的贡献利润率的主要推动因素是我们与现有客户建立更牢固关系的努力。由于这些努力，第二季度我们获得的贷款中有38％来自于再次借款人，也创下了我们的历史记录。由此，第二季度我们还看到了创纪录的低每笔贷款获取成本。
Next, expanding our footprint. We continue to make progress in our newer products and are excited to see the progress we'll make through the rest of 2023. In the second quarter, we made significant strides in our auto retail lending business. We expanded our footprint from 39 rooftops with Upstart lending implemented last quarter to 61 rooftops today. We also added 12 additional states we now support, covering more than 65% of the US population. We launched new risk models for both our auto refinance and retail lending products, delivering as much accuracy improvement as we've seen in the last year from our personal loan models. We continue to improve our auto recovery performance, reducing delays in recovery cycle by 75%. On the feature side, we launched a new device agnostic in-store application that expands access to desktops, laptops, and tablet browsers. We also brought on our second and third lending partners for auto retail, no easy feat, giving the current market environment. We're also making rapid progress on our small dollar relief loans. These loans started just a few hundred dollars and are currently offered only to Upstart applicants who don't qualify for our mainstream personal loans. For this reason, they're entirely incremental to both our approval rates and our model training set. Our first vintage have now fully reached maturity and our model is now fully calibrated with observed losses in line with expectations for our most recent model version. In a first for Upstart, we began using cash flow data as part of the risk model for small dollar loans. This incremental data has led to increased approval rates and will eventually become available for all our loan products. Our fully automated rate in Q2 for small dollar loans was 90% an incredible achievement that demonstrates the power and impact of AI and lending. In Q3, we'll move beyond offering this product exclusively to those declined for personal loans and will finally enable direct consumer applications.
接下来，我们继续扩大我们的业务范围。我们在我们的新产品上取得了进展，并对我们在2023年其余时间会取得的进展感到兴奋。在第二季度，我们在汽车零售贷款业务上取得了重大进展。我们将覆盖面从上个季度的39个网点扩大到今天的61个网点，并新增了12个州的支持，覆盖了美国人口的65%以上。我们为汽车再融资和零售贷款产品推出了新的风险模型，提供了和我们个人贷款模型相比去年看到的准确性改进相当的效果。我们继续改善我们的汽车回收表现，将回收周期的延迟减少了75%。在功能方面，我们推出了一款新的设备无关的店内应用程序，扩大了对桌面电脑、笔记本电脑和平板电脑浏览器的访问权限。我们还为汽车零售业务引入了第二和第三个贷款合作伙伴，这在当前市场环境下并不容易。我们在小额救济贷款方面也取得了快速进展。这些贷款最初只有几百美元，并且仅面向那些不符合我们主流个人贷款资格的Upstart申请人。因此，它们完全对我们的批准率和模型训练集是额外的。我们的第一个产品已经完全成熟，并且我们的模型现在已经根据最新的模型版本的预期损失进行了完全校准。对于Upstart来说，首次使用现金流数据作为小额贷款风险模型的一部分。这些额外的数据导致了批准率的增加，并最终将适用于我们所有的贷款产品。我们在第二季度针对小额贷款的全自动费率为90%，这是一个令人难以置信的成就，展示了人工智能在贷款领域的力量和影响。在第三季度，我们将不再将这种产品仅限于那些被拒绝个人贷款的人，而是将最终启用直接面向消费者的申请。
Last but not least, I'm happy to let you know that our home equity product is officially off the ground with a pilot program in the state of Colorado. We expect a fast follow with the state of Michigan and also hope to be in a handful of additional states by the end of Q3. This is the first Upstart product specifically designed for prime borrowers where a superior process enabled by automation is a richer source of differentiation than loan pricing itself. As a reminder, I mentioned last quarter that we're targeting online approval in less than 10 minutes in a closing process of less than five days for an Upstart powered HELOC, against an industry average closing time of more than a month.
最后但并非最不重要的是，我很高兴地告诉你，我们的房屋产权产品已经在科罗拉多州正式启动，采用试点计划。我们预计密歇根州将紧随其后，并希望到第三季度结束时能够进入另外几个州。这是Upstart首个专门为优质借款人设计的产品，其中自动化所带来的卓越流程更是比贷款定价本身更具差异化的丰富来源。提醒一下，我上个季度提到过，我们的目标是在不到10分钟内在线批准和不到五天的闭合流程内，为由Upstart提供技术支持的房屋产权贷款提供服务，而产业平均闭合时间超过一个月。
To wrap up, we're not yet certain the economy is headed to a better place, so we continue to be cautious while investing for the long term. You're now beginning to see the benefits of our discipline approach. Regardless of the economy's direction in the coming months, I'm confident that we're building a better, stronger enterprise for the future. We're in the poll position to lead the industry to an AI enabled future, one that represents a giant leap forward for both borrowers and lenders. And we do this not because of fascination with AI, but because of what brought us here, the potential to dramatically improve access to credit for tens or even hundreds of millions of Americans.
总之，我们还不确定经济是否正朝着更好的方向发展，因此在长期投资时我们仍然保持谨慎。您现在开始看到我们纪律性方法的好处了。无论未来几个月经济的走势如何，我相信我们正在为未来建设一个更好、更强大的企业。我们正处于领导该行业走向人工智能未来的有利位置，这将对借款人和贷款人都带来巨大的飞跃。我们这样做，不是因为对人工智能的迷恋，而是因为使我们得以前进的潜力，即大幅改善数千万甚至上亿美国人的信贷获取能力。
There are many dimensions along which you can weigh our efforts to make Upstart stronger, speed of model development, strength of unit economics, low fixed costs, demonstrable leverage in our business, improved funding supply, and growing product diversity.
有许多方面可以衡量我们加强Upstart的努力，包括模型开发速度、单位经济实力、低固定成本、业务杠杆示范、资金供应改善以及产品多样性的增长。
But the dimension that gives me confidence more than any of these is talent density at both the executive and individual contributor level. For those excited about AI and passionate about its potential to improve lives, we know of no better place than Upstart to build a career. And while we're hiring strategically and with extreme caution, our digital first approach is enabling us to hire top talent across the country. More than 90% of job candidates have accepted our offers in recent months, an incredible success rate.
然而，给我最大信心的维度不是上述任何一种，而是高管和个人贡献者层面的人才密度。对于那些对人工智能充满热情并且热衷于其改善生活潜力的人来说，我们认为没有比Upstart更好的地方来建立职业生涯了。尽管我们在战略上和极度谨慎地招聘人才，但我们的数字优先方法使我们能够在全国范围内招聘到顶级人才。近几个月来，超过90%的求职者接受了我们的聘用邀请，这是一个令人难以置信的成功率。
While much of the world is debating how to return to the office full time, we're very happy with the results of our digital first approach. I will close with a huge thank you to all Upstarters, as well as the family and the friends that support them. We're on an incredible mission together and it wouldn't be possible without each of you. Thank you and now we'd like to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 2023 financial results and guidance.
当世界各地都在争论如何全职返回办公室时，我们对我们的数字优先方案的结果非常满意。最后，我要向所有Upstarter表示衷心的感谢，也感谢支持他们的家人和朋友们。我们共同承担着一个令人难以置信的使命，没有你们每一个人，这是不可能实现的。谢谢大家，现在我要请我们的首席财务官Sanjay介绍我们2023年第二季度的财务结果和展望。
Sanjay? Thanks, Dave, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. We're pleased with our return to sequential growth and e-bit-out profitability this past quarter. As our work to unlock committed funding, rationalize our fixed cost base and expand margins begins to bear fruit. We accomplished these objectives despite ongoing macro challenges for our lending partners. And despite a US borrower whose recovery from the stimulus-driven effects of 2021 and 2022 has yet to fully materialize. Our best measure of borrower delinquency trends, the Upstart Macro Index, has tread water over the past few months, and in fact even seen a more recent seasonal increase versus earlier 20 to 1.3 levels, as we came off of the favorable tax refund seasonality that ran through April.
Sanjay？谢谢你，戴夫，也谢谢大家今天的参与。我们很高兴看到上个季度的连续增长和电子利润回报能力。因为我们正在努力解锁承诺的资金，合理化固定成本基础和扩大利润率，这些工作已开始见到成果。尽管我们的贷款合作伙伴面临持续的宏观挑战，我们还是实现了这些目标。尽管美国借款人尚未完全从2021年和2022年刺激带来的影响中恢复过来，但我们的借款人违约趋势的最佳衡量指标——Upstart宏观指数，在过去几个月里基本持平，事实上，与之前20:1.3水平相比，最近看到了季节性增长，这是因为有利的税款退还季节性在4月间结束。
Despite a continuing recovery in the disposable income stemming from the ever-strengthening labor market, any incremental earnings over the past quarter have been directed almost entirely towards higher consumption, which has continued to increase in lockstep. And consumer balance sheets have not benefited from incremental savings as they had earlier in the year. Despite these latest dynamics, we believe our underwriting models remain well calibrated to this environment. And we are expecting our vintages since late 2022 to deliver or exceed their targets.
尽管劳动力市场不断强化，导致可支配收入持续恢复，但过去一个季度的额外收入几乎全部用于增加消费，导致消费水平持续上升。与今年早些时候相比，消费者的资产负债表并未因为额外储蓄而得到好处。尽管存在这些最新的动态，我们相信我们的风险模型在这种环境下仍然良好校准。我们预计自2022年底以来的资产组合将实现或超过其目标。
On the funding side of the ecosystem, thanks remain conservative in managing the asset side of their balance sheets, generally seeking to rationalize loan positions and conserve cash in aggregate. The ongoing supply of loans on offer in the secondary markets by sellers anxious for liquidity contributes to a challenging market dynamic, with loan books being sold at bargain prices and creating no shortage of buying opportunities for selective investors. Our view is that it will take some time for the market to work its way through this surpluses cheap available yield. Despite this, we continue to pursue a number of promising discussions with prospective funding partners, aimed at bringing more committed capital to the platform, and believe that we will be well positioned once the loan market returns to a more traditional state of pricing equilibrium.
在生态系统的资金方面，感谢以保守的方式管理他们资产负债表的资产端，通常试图合理化贷款位置并保护现金总额。二级市场上供应的借款持续不断，卖方为了获得流动性而愿意出售，导致市场动态具有挑战性，借款账本以低价出售，并为有选择的投资者创造了大量购买机会。我们的观点是，市场需要一段时间来摆脱这种廉价高收益的过剩。尽管如此，我们仍在积极追求与潜在资金合作伙伴的讨论，并希望将更多的资金引入平台，相信一旦贷款市场回归到更加传统的定价均衡状态，我们将处于良好的位置。
With these items as context, here are some financial highlights from the second quarter of 2023. Revenue from fees was $144 million in Q2, comfortably above our guided expectation of $130 million, aided by a beneficial mix shift towards institutional funding, as well as ongoing take-rate optimization. Net interest income was negative $8 million, largely owing to higher than expected discount rates and unrealized fair value adjustments on some existing assets, as well as the impact of rising borrower charge-offs, particularly in our legacy R&D portfolio. They came together, that revenue for Q2 came in at $136 million, slightly above guidance and representing a 40% contraction year over year.
在这些补充的信息的背景下，以下是2023年第二季度的一些财务亮点。费用收入在第二季度达到1.44亿美元，超过了我们所预期的1.3亿美元，这得益于向机构筹资的有利转变以及持续的费率优化。净利息收入为负800万美元，主要是由于高于预期的贴现率和一些现有资产的未实现公允价值调整，以及增加的借款人核销，尤其在我们的传统研发投资组合中有所影响。总的来说，第二季度的收入达到了1.36亿美元，略高于预期，并且同比萎缩了40%。
The volume of loan transactions across our platform in Q2 was approximately 109,000 loans, up roughly 30% sequentially and representing over 43,000 new borrowers. Average loan size of $11,000 was up 4% versus the same period last year, but down sequentially due to growth in small dollar loans.
在第二季度，我们平台上的贷款交易数量约为109,000笔，较上季度增长约30%，代表了超过43,000位新借款人。平均贷款金额为$11,000，较去年同期增长4％，但由于小额贷款的增长，环比下降。
Our contribution margin, a non-gap metric which we define as revenue from fees minus variable costs, borrower acquisition, verification and servicing, as a percentage of revenue from fees, a minute 67% in Q2, up 20% points from 47% last year, and 7% points above our guided expectation for the quarter. Continued investment in loan processing automation and fraud models have led to a new high in fully automated rates at 87%, bringing down loan onboarding costs and improving the conversion efficiency of our marketing dollars. Higher numbers of repeat borrowers have similarly improved our overall cost per acquisition, and a mixed shift towards institutional funding has benefited our take rates. Taken together, our contribution margins are stronger than they have ever been.
我们的贡献边际，一个非公认的指标，定义为手续费收入减去可变成本、借款人获取、验证和服务的成本，作为手续费收入的百分比，在第二季度为67%，比去年的47%上升了20个百分点，比本季度的指导预期高出了7个百分点。持续投资于贷款处理自动化和欺诈模型，使得完全自动化率达到了87%，降低了贷款上市成本，提高了市场营销资金的转化效率。更多的重复借款人同样提高了我们的整体获取成本，而向机构资金的混合转变也有益于我们的吸纳率。综上所述，我们的贡献边际比以往任何时候都更强大。
Operating expenses were $169 million in Q2, down 35% year over year, and 28% sequentially, as workforce restructuring initiatives announced in Q1 are now translating into reduced operating burn. In addition, as they have alluded to, we have done a significant amount of work to improve the efficiency and decrease the overall expense of our technical infrastructure, which represents a large portion of our fixed cost base. Declines in other categories, such as sales and marketing and consumer-customer operations, were largely in line with the decline in the loan volumes that drive them. Altogether, Q2 gap net loss was $28.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA was positive $11 million, both comfortably ahead of guidance. Adjusted earnings per share was $0.6 based on a diluted weighted average share count of $91.0 million.
第二季度运营费用为1.69亿美元，同比下降35%，环比下降28%，这是由于我们在第一季度宣布的员工重组计划正在逐渐减少运营成本。此外，正如我们所提到的，我们还在提高技术基础设施的效率并降低整体费用方面做了大量工作，这是我们固定成本的很大一部分。销售和市场营销以及消费者客户运营等其他类别的下降基本上与推动它们的贷款额的下降相一致。总体而言，第二季度差额净损失为2820万美元，调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润为1100万美元，两者均高于预期。基于91.0万美元的稀释加权平均股份数，调整后每股收益为0.6美元。
We ended the quarter with loans on our balance sheet of $838 million, down sequentially from $982 million to prior quarter. Of that amount, loans made for the purposes of R&D, principally within the auto segment, represented $493 million of the total. Just after quarter close, we completed a one-off $200 million ABS transaction funded entirely from our own balance sheet. As you may recall, we traditionally sponsor ABS transactions on behalf of our loan buyers, who are usually the principal economic agents and loan contributors to the transaction. In this case, we took the unusual step of funding a deal from the Q2 Vintages accumulated entirely on our own balance sheet. We did this both to reset the market understanding for how our more recent Vintages should be expected to perform, as well as to serve as a visible signal to the market of our confidence in the adjustments that have been made by our own underwriting models in adapting to the new environment.
我们以借贷总额为8.38亿美元结束了本季度，较上一季度的9.82亿美元有所下降。其中，用于研发目的的贷款主要集中在汽车领域，总额为4.93亿美元。在季度结束后不久，我们完成了一笔从自有资产负债表中完全出资的一次性2亿美元ABS交易。正如您可能记得的那样，我们传统上代表我们的贷款购买者发起ABS交易，通常是交易的主要经济参与者和贷款提供者。在这种情况下，我们采取了非常规的措施，从自己的资产负债表上投资一笔交易。我们这样做既是为了重新定义市场对我们最近一期葡萄酒的预期表现，也是为了向市场传达我们对我们自己的承担模型在适应新环境中所做的调整的信心。
Our corporate liquidity position at the end of Q2 remains strong, with $510 million of total cash on the balance sheet, and approximately $558 million in net loan equity at fair value. Looking ahead, while there remain good reasons to be optimistic about the general longer-term direction of the US consumer, in the short term, we remain circumspect about the timing of the recovery of borrower delinquency trends and the recovering health of the funding markets more broadly. In particular, until we see a definitive inflection and reversal in the trajectory of UMI, we will continue to err on the side of being very conservative in our assessment and pricing of borrowers.
我们公司在第二季度末的流动性状况依然强劲，资产负债表上现金总额为5.1亿美元，账面价值约为5.58亿美元的净贷款权益。展望未来，尽管我们对美国消费者的长期趋势仍然保持乐观，但在短期内，我们对借款人拖欠趋势的恢复时间和资金市场的健康恢复仍持谨慎态度。特别是在看到U绩效率明显拐点和逆转之前，我们在评估和定价借款人时将继续保持非常保守的态度。
With this context in mind, for Q3 of 2023, we expect total revenues of approximately $140 million, consisting of revenue from fees of $150 million and net interest income of approximately negative $10 million. Contribution margin of approximately 65%, net income of approximately $38 million, adjusted net income of approximately negative $2 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 million, and a deluded weighted average share count of approximately 84.5 million shares.
考虑到这个背景，我们预计2023年第三季度的总收入约为1.4亿美元，其中包括收费收入1.5亿美元和净利息收入负1千万美元左右。贡献率约为65％，净利润约为3800万美元，调整后净利润约为负200万美元，调整后的EBITDA约为500万美元，并且稀释后的加权平均股数约为8450万股。
Notwithstanding the promising direction this past quarter, there is still much work to be done to restore our business to the scale and growth that we aspire to. We have made encouraging recent strides in execution, operational discipline, technological innovation, and deal making. And while we await emergence from the combined jetwash of the funding macro and the borrower delinquency trends that are running their course, we will continue to push for further progress in all of these areas. When we are finally clear of the environmental turmoil around us, we are convinced that our business will be as formidable as ever.
尽管过去的一个季度走势有希望，但我们仍然需要付出大量工作来恢复我们企业的规模和增长，这正是我们渴望的。我们在执行、运营纪律、技术创新和交易方面近期取得了令人鼓舞的进展。而在我们等待从资金宏观和借款人违约趋势的持续影响中清醒过来时，我们将继续在所有这些领域推动进一步进展。当我们最终摆脱我们周围的环境动荡时，我们相信我们的业务将依然强大。
Thanks to all of the teams at Upstart who continue to execute ahead of expectation. This has obviously not been an easy past few quarters, but I am confident that we are pointed in the right direction and that we have the right people in place to seize the once in a generation opportunity that remains before us.
感谢Upstart团队的所有成员，他们在执行任务时一直超越预期。毫无疑问，过去几个季度并不容易，但我相信我们正朝着正确的方向前进，并且我们已经有了合适的人员来抓住一次千载难逢的机遇。
Or as we like to say internally, we are under the maple tree. With that, Dave and I are happy to open the call to any questions. Operator? Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow the signal to reach our equipment. Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1.
正如我们内部所说，我们正坐在枫树下。在此，戴夫和我很高兴向大家开放提问。操作员，请问是否有问题？谢谢。如果您想提问，请按您电话键盘上的*键1号键。如果您使用免提电话，请确保关闭静音功能，以确保信号能够达到我们的设备。再次提醒，如果您想提问，请按*键1。
We will take our first question from Simon Klinch with Atlantic equities. Please go ahead. Hi guys, thanks for taking my question. I really interested in, I guess, what levers you. or perhaps how you respond when you start to see the UMI flat or flat nor improve. What are the levers that you would be able to pull? And how should we think there for about the speed at which you can start to get a recovery in your conversion rates and your general loan growth and your market share gains as a result of that?
我们将从Atlantic Equities的Simon Klinch开始提问。请发问。嗨，大家好，感谢回答我的问题。我对你们使用的杠杆非常感兴趣，或者说，当你们开始看到UMI平稳或者不改善时，你们是如何应对的。你们可以采取哪些措施？在此情况下，我们应该如何考虑你们的转化率、贷款增长和市场份额的恢复速度呢？
Thanks, Simon. This is Dave. Basically, we are watching UMI trends and effectively maintaining what we hope to be a buffer between the assumptions that are in a new loan model or in the loans that are being produced in any particular time to the trend in UMI. So as we will hopefully see over time, UMI trending back down, at some point, the underlying assumptions in the models will stick with that. And again, maintaining. always aiming to maintain a buffer, but it should trend down. So UMI, as you see it, really is the output of what's going on out there in the economy. And we always want to stay ahead of it. And the best thing we can really do is make sure UMI is as accurate and as recent as possible. That's why we're continuing to innovate on it. But it will be a good indication of when the assumptions that will go into the next loans that are being originated.
谢谢，Simon。我是Dave。基本上，我们正在关注UMI的趋势，并有效地维持我们希望在新贷款模型或任何特定时间产生的贷款中与UMI趋势之间的缓冲区。随着时间的推移，我们希望能看到UMI趋势向下回归，那么模型中的基本假设也将保持下去。并且，始终保持维持缓冲区，确保趋势向下。UMI的趋势反映了经济中正在发生的事情。我们始终希望保持领先，并且我们能做的最好的事情就是确保UMI尽可能准确和及时。这就是为什么我们继续在其上创新的原因。但它将成为制定下一批贷款假设的良好指标。
Okay, I understand. And just as a follow-up then, I was wondering maybe Sanjay could talk through the slide on the long-term funding commitments and you'll share the risk and just make sure we understand sort of what's going on in that particular situation, for example. Yeah, hey, Simon. This is Sanjay. Happy to do it. Yeah. So we have a new slide in our materials that's meant to sort of pull together the punchline or essentially what we have at risk as part of our committed capital partnerships. They're a little bit hard to pull together in the financials directly because the contracts are a little bit different and they're all accounted for a little bit differently. But I guess at a headline level as part of those deals, we have invested or co-invested today on the order of $40 million. So that I guess you can think of as the maximum exposure we have that $40 million over time will be worth as little as zero, or as much as around $80 million, $83 million, I guess, depending on, you know, the time and extent to which these loans over or underperform. Our best current estimate, given the trends, is that that $40 million, we believe is on track to be worth about $52 million. Just a marginal overperformance there. But that's something that we will obviously forecast and interact with you guys over time.
好的，我明白了。作为跟进，我想知道也许 Sanjay 可以讲一下关于长期资金承诺的幻灯片，你们会分担风险，确保我们理解在这个特定情况下发生了什么。是的，嗨，Simon。这里是 Sanjay。很乐意帮忙。是的。所以我们在我们的材料中有一张新的幻灯片，旨在将我们在承诺资本合作伙伴关系中所面临的风险归纳在一起。这些风险在财务报表中有点难以直接整合，因为合同有些不同，并且会有不同的会计处理方式。但是我想总体上来看，在这些交易中，我们已经投资或共同投资了大约4000万美元。所以你可以将这4000万美元视为我们的最大风险敞口，这个敞口可能在未来的时间内会一文不值，或者达到8000万美元左右，具体取决于贷款的时间和范围是否超过或者不足表现。根据目前的趋势，我们最好的估计是这4000万美元有望达到5200万美元的价值，稍微超出预期。但这是我们会在未来与你们预测和交流的事情。
Okay. Thanks. We will take our next question from Lance Jesserone with BTIG. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks for taking my question, guys. First one's just around, you know, kind of the governor on your growth right now, which is that 36% APR, any commentary or color around how many you kind of have to turn back right now because they're, you know, the risk model is turning above 36%. And, you know, how should we kind of think about that going forward in the coincides of where you see, you know, fed funds going.
好的，谢谢。我们将接下来的问题交给BTIG的Lance Jesserone。请你说吧。嘿，谢谢你回答我的问题，伙计们。第一个问题是关于你们目前增长的限制，也就是36%的年利率，有没有关于目前有多少贷款因为超过了36%的风险模型而被拒绝的评论或细节。你们应该如何考虑这个问题，并且与你们对美联储资金率的看法相结合。
Hey, Lance. Let's see. So I guess that that 36% APR cap with the current levels of UMI is a significant constraint on our business. In fact, I think as we stand today, it's probably the bigger constraint on growth, you know, on our platform. It's very punitive from the perspective of our approval rates, which are quite low right now.
嘿，兰斯。让我们来看看。我猜那个在当前的UMI水平下设置的36%年利率上限对我们的业务是一个重要的限制。实际上，我认为现在我们面临的情况来看，这可能是对我们平台增长的更大限制。从我们的批准率来看，它在惩罚性方面非常严厉，目前批准率非常低。
How to think about this evolving going forward. Well, the 36% APR cap will not change that that's something that is sacred to us as you am I declines. And so, as Simon said in his question, as, as our observed the observation of UMI declines over time because presumably the macro economy coming back into equilibrium. We will accordingly reduce the forward assumptions being fed to the model. And that will essentially reflect lower loss estimates over time. And that will pull. And those rates were currently excluded from our credit box. They'll pull them back into the approval universe. So that's the mechanism by which we would expect to grow as loss rates in the economy subsided in the UMI comes back down.
怎样思考这一进展的发展。好吧，36%的年化利率上限不会改变这一点，这对我们来说是神圣的，就像您和我一样。所以，正如西蒙在他的问题中所说的那样，随着我们观察到的UMI随着时间的推移而下降，这可能是因为宏观经济正在回归平衡。我们将相应地减少输入模型的前瞻性假设。这实质上反映了随着时间的推移估计的损失更低。这将会将那些目前不包含在我们的信贷范围内的利率纳入我们的批准范围内。所以这是我们希望在经济的损失率减少、UMI回落的机制。
And then in terms of July data, I know there's been some alternative data sources out there, but anything you can kind of frame around July data and where it's coming and how do you kind of see that in terms of a quarter or in terms of a monthly run rate through August and September. You're asking about July data then? Yeah, yeah. I don't we're not in a really really in a position to comment at all on July numbers. Hopefully we'll have a good report for you when we when we talk about two three. Got it. Thanks.
然后就7月份的数据而言，我知道有一些替代数据来源，但你能否就7月份的数据进行一些描述，包括数据的来源以及在季度或8月和9月的月度运行情况方面的看法。你是在问7月份的数据吗？是的。我觉得我们目前真的没有什么资格对7月份的数字发表评论。希望在我们谈到2、3月份时能给你一个好的报告。明白了，谢谢。
We will take our next question from Ramsey Ella fall with Barclays. Please go ahead. Hi, thanks. This is John coffee on for Ramsey. I was wondering, Sanjay, if you could tell me a little bit more about the loan balances you have on the balance sheet. I know some came off in Q two, I think from some of your new partners. Clearly those got built up a little bit again. Could you just maybe talk briefly about how much to think about the cadence of those loans in the balance sheet for the remainder of the year and if that like billion dollar mark is still sort of like maybe sort of an informal high water mark that you won't go beyond or have you rethought that a little bit.
我们将从巴克莱银行的拉姆齐·艾拉·福尔提问。请继续。嗨，谢谢。我是约翰·科菲，代表拉姆齐提问。我想知道，桑杰，你能否告诉我一些关于财务报表上贷款余额的更多信息。我知道在第二季度，一些贷款来自于你们的新合作伙伴。很明显，贷款余额有所增加。你可以简要地谈谈在接下来的一年里对财务报表上贷款的思考以及是否还会超过那个十亿美元的高水位吗，或者你对此有没有重新考虑过？
Hey, John. I guess a specific comment, a general comment, the comments specific to Q two would be. Yeah, it is true that while the net loan balance from Q and Q two went down. We sort of went down farther and then built it back up. One of the things we were doing very deliberately was to build up some very, very fresh collateral to be able to put into an ABS deal. And that ABS deal, as I said in my remarks happened after the end of the quarter. So those loans sort of stood on our balance sheet at the end of the quarter and shortly after we put them into an ABS deal to be done usual for us to run an ABS deal off of our own balance sheet, as I said, but there's a couple of important reasons for why we wanted to do it. We wanted to put fresh collateral into the securitization reporting so that people could see how the models of change and how they, you know, how they might expect freshly freshly originated loans to perform. So that's maybe one dynamic that's specific to the quarter. More generally, I think our construct is not changed. You know, we're comfortable going up to a number around a billion or so in loan assets. And, you know, that's the number that leaves us with still, I think, a comfortable amount of cash to continue running the business and add some safety stock. And, you know, within that within that parameter will sort of flex up and down as we, as we believe, benefits the business. All right. Thanks, Ajay.
嘿，约翰。我猜一个具体的评论、一个一般评论和针对问题二的评论会是这样的。没错，确实是在Q和Q2的净贷款余额下降了。我们在很大程度上下降了，然后又重新增加了。我们特意在做的一件事就是储备一些非常新鲜的担保品，以便放入ABS交易中。正如我在发言中说过的，这笔ABS交易是在季末之后进行的。这些贷款在季末时仍然显示在我们的资产负债表上，不久之后我们将它们放入了ABS交易中，这对我们来说并不常见，但我们有几个重要的原因想这样做。我们希望将新鲜的担保品放入证券化报告中，以使人们能够看到模型的变化以及他们可以期待新鲜发放的贷款的表现。所以这可能是特定于该季度的一个动态。更普遍地说，我认为我们的结构没有改变。你知道，我们可以在贷款资产上做到大约十亿美元左右，这个数字让我们仍然有足够的现金来继续经营业务并增加一些安全储备。在这个范围内，我们将根据对业务有益的情况进行灵活调整。好的，谢谢，阿贾伊。
We will take our next question from Rob Wildhack with autonomous research. Please go ahead. Hi guys. Just another question about the committed capital co-investment. I do appreciate the detail and the slides there. How are changes to that reflected in the income statement and does that mean that there's a plus 11.5 million impact in the second quarter from the markup over the 40.2 million.
我们将采用来自自主研究公司的罗布·威尔德黑克的下一个问题。请继续。嗨，各位。关于承诺资本共同投资，我有另一个问题。我很感谢你们提供的细节和幻灯片。这些变化如何反映在损益表中？这是否意味着第二季度的影响增加了1150万，超过了4020万的标记？
Yeah, here Rob. So the short answer is no that that impact is not in the P and L. I wish you were that simple. And the other thing is we've done a couple of different deals and contractually they'll have their nuances.
是的，这里是罗布。所以简单回答是不，那个影响并不在损益表中。但我希望事情能够那么简单。另外，我们进行了几笔不同的交易，合同上会有各自的细微差别。
I think the result of that is that they're all being accounted for in slightly different ways. Some of it is showing up in the balance sheet as a beneficial interest. Some of it is showing up on the balance sheet under a restricted assets. Some of it is being fair valued. Some of it is being carried at cost. So I think the difficulty of trying to pull all those different accounting treatments together and create a clear picture is the reason why we're just going to put it on one slide for you. But you know the short answer to your ultimate question is no it's not really hitting the P and L in a way where fair values being, you know, recognized and that interesting combined.
我认为，这样做的结果是它们都以稍微不同的方式被纳入考虑。其中一部分显示在资产负债表上，作为有益权益。一些显示在受限资产账户上。一些进行公允价值估计。一些按成本计提。所以我认为尝试将所有这些不同的会计处理方式整合在一起并营造出一个清晰的图景是困难的，这就是为什么我们只会在一个幻灯片上为您呈现。但是，对于您最终的问题，简单回答是，实际上它并没有以一种公允价值被认可并且结合在一起的方式影响利润与损失表。
Okay, thanks.
And then of the two billion longer-term funding commitment you announced in May, how much of that was funded in the second quarter? I mean, I would say approximately, you sort of remove the back book component that was a component of that original deal roughly a quarter.
Okay, so one quarter in excess of the 352 that you sold.
Got that, Rob? No, I think he dropped for me quickly. Oh, sorry. I just said that that's correct. That's correct. The state you made beyond the basketball sale. It was about a quarter of the remainder.
Great. Thanks. Sorry about that.
好的，谢谢。
那么关于您5月份宣布的200亿长期资金承诺，其中有多少在第二季度获得了资助？我的意思是，大约有多少，如果你将那份原始交易中的后备组件除去。
好的，所以超过352卖掉的那部分有一个季度。
明白了吗，罗布？不，他很快就挂了。哦，抱歉。我刚才说的是正确的。它就是正确的。除了篮球销售之外，您所说的是剩下的大约四分之一。
太好了，谢谢。对不起刚才的问题。
We will take our next question from James Fawcett with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I'm just hoping to get a little bit of clarification really quickly here. And maybe I missed it in the guide you're looking for around a minus 10 million. That is interesting. Com in the third quarter. Is that being driven by loans on the balance sheet or the way that funding commitments work through the P and L just trying to make sure I understand that mechanism.
Yeah, James. Yeah, I would say a major factor. In that number is the fact that by and large are a balance sheet now, particularly after the ABS deal we completed which where we cleared out most of our recent sort of core personal and the remaining balances are R and D and a lot of it is very seasoned. And some of those older vintages of say how long you know how long from a year and a half ago. Their charge-offs are starting to to to grow both because they were originated at a time where our models were still, you know, sort of in calibration and as well they were originated in an environment that was, you know, and has rapidly deteriorated. So on some of the you can think of this partly as some of the cost of doing R and D. We've got a book of R and D loans now and and the charge-offs are elevated.
Okay, great.
我们将提问来自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福西特。请提问。
非常感谢。我只是希望在这里快速澄清一下。也许我在您提供的指南中漏掉了，您在第三季度寻找约-1000万美元。这很有趣。这是由资产负债表上的贷款驱动，还是资金承诺通过损益表工作的方式，我只是想确保我理解这个机制。
是的，詹姆斯。是的，我可以说一个主要因素。在这个数字中，事实上，我们的资产负债表现在是一个主要因素，特别是在我们完成的ABS交易之后，我们清理了我们最近核心个人贷款的大部分余额，现有的余额是研发贷款，其中很多是非常成熟的。这些旧的存量贷款，例如一年半前的贷款，由于它们的产生时间是在我们的模型还在校准阶段，而且它们的产生环境也是一个逐渐恶化的环境下，因此它们的呆账开始增加。所以你可以认为这部分是研发的一些成本。我们现在有一本研发贷款的账面，并且呆账率也有所上升。
好的，非常好。
And then, you know, I guess just as related to demand and originations. Like, how are you thinking about the impact from from higher take rate. And, and, you know, how should we think about how those could move and how overall origination should trend at least on a sequential basis through the rest this year and into 24.
Thanks.
Thank you.
For sure. Our rates are kind of as high as they've ever been I believe. And that part of that is a function of you, you, am I being super high part of it is the return demanded by the market is much higher, of course, related to fed rates. And also our take rate is high and all three of those contribute to the rates being high.
We would anticipate those things kind of coming off together. So, you know, as you see you and my trend down and maybe at some point interest rates will trend down as well. But also our take rate is probably higher than we would see it being in a kind of normalized scenario. So all three of those very high driving price for high. And for sure the reason, you know, I mean, the counter to that is that the market for, you know, the loan demand is very strong. And for that reason, that's why you're seeing, you know, very low, and so that's kind of the place where we are today prices for credit are super high demand remains super high. And that sort of nets out to where we are right now.
Okay.
Thank you.
然后，你知道，我想只是与需求和发源地有关。比如说，你怎么考虑来自更高收费率的影响。你知道，我们应该如何思考这些因素可能如何变动，以及至少从今年剩下的时间到24年整体发源趋势会怎样。
谢谢。
谢谢你。
当然。我们的利率可能是历史最高的了。其中一部分原因是市场对我们的回报要求更高，当然，这与联邦利率有关。此外，我们的收费率也很高，这三个因素都导致了利率的上升。
我们预计这些因素会同时下降。所以，你知道，当你看到你和我趋势下降，也许在某个时候利率也会下降。但是我们的收费率可能比我们在正常情况下预期的要高。所以这三个因素都非常高，推动了利率上升。当然，原因是市场对贷款需求非常强劲。因此，你看到信贷价格非常高，需求仍然非常高。这就是我们现在所处的状态。
好的。
谢谢。
We will take our next question from Reggie Smith with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks for taking my question guys. I guess kind of a follow up to the last question sounds like absolutely pricing is up right now. How do you guys think about, you know, managing adverse selection? Maybe talk a little bit about some of the sensitivity people may exhibit to price. I see that you're approval conversion rate is down. And I know there's two components to that. I would imagine approvals are down, but maybe you could talk a little bit about the acceptance of these offers as well. I'm just going to follow up.
Thank you.
我们将从JP Morgan的Reggie Smith接下来提问，请开始吧。
嗨，谢谢你们回答我的问题。我觉得这个问题是对上一个问题的追问，目前看来定价肯定上涨了。你们怎么看待管理逆向选择呢？或者可以稍微谈谈人们对价格的敏感度。我看到你们的批准转化率下降了。我知道其中有两个因素。我能想象出批准率降低，但或许你可以谈一谈对这些优惠的接受程度。我只是想追问一下。
谢谢。
Yeah, hey, Reggie. Sure. So let's see a little bit about adverse selection. Adverse selection tends to be an impact that is greater where the market or the segment is more competitive. So when there's a lot of sort of competing alternatives. And you try to raise your rates, you'll typically suffer from adverse selection. And of course, the, you know, when segments are less competed adverse selection is less of an effect. In our case, for, you know, a lot of the segments where we tend to learn a lot of volume. You know, even with higher rates, we tend to still have the best rates available. So even with higher take rates and higher loss assumptions. And we, we, in many instances, they're still significantly below what you might think it was the market clearing rate out there based on the, on the credit scores. And so in that instance, you know, there's not a lot of discernible adverse selection. If we were to try and raise our take rates significantly and very highly competed segments very prime borrowers, then it's something that we would be thinking about a lot more. And your second question, you read, it was about acceptance rates. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's very simple. It's a pretty classic sort of supply and demand construct, whereas we raise our rates and not only do our approval rates go down because of the 36% if you are cut off, but for those who remain approved, they'll be less likely to take a loan. At least what we've observed in our data is that people who don't take loans with us don't necessarily take them from a competing source. The majority of them just, you know, don't take the loan. So it causes people's demand to reduce. Sure. Got it. And one quick follow up on the, the co investment and I appreciate the disclosure. How should we think about that book? Are these loans coordinated to the rest of the structure? Is there certain ratio that you must hold relative to what you run through the committee facility? Did any, any color you could share there would be helpful for kind of modeling and thinking about that? Thank you.
是的，嘿，雷吉。当然。那么让我们来看看不利选择的一些情况。在市场或细分市场竞争更激烈的地方，不利选择的影响往往更大。所以当有很多竞争对手时，你试图提高利率，通常会遭受到不利选择的影响。当然，在竞争程度较低的细分市场中，不利选择的效应就较小。就我们而言，在许多我们倾向于获得大量交易的细分市场中，即使利率较高，我们的利率通常仍然是最优的。即使有更高的接受率和更高的损失估计，很多情况下它们仍然远远低于基于信用评分来判断市场出清利率。因此，在这种情况下，不太明显存在不利选择。如果我们试图大幅提高接受率，并且在竞争激烈的细分市场中面向优质借款人，那么我们会更加关注这个问题。而你的第二个问题，雷吉，是关于接受率的。是的，是的。很简单。这是一种相当经典的供求结构，我们提高利率不仅会导致批准率下降，因为超过36%的利率将会成为限制条件，而且对于那些仍然批准的人来说，他们更不太可能贷款。根据我们的数据观察，那些不与我们贷款的人并不一定从竞争对手那里获得贷款。大部分人只是不去贷款。这导致了需求的下降。当然。明白了。关于共同投资的问题，我感谢您的披露。我们应该如何考虑这本书？这些贷款是否与整体结构协调一致？您必须拥有相对于通过委员会设施的贷款的一定比例吗？您能分享一些相关信息吗，以便对模型进行建模和思考？谢谢。
Sure. Yeah. I mean, they do tend to sit in the equity part of the stacks, if you will, where, you know, loan transfer, you have sort of senior money and maybe mezzanine money and sort of equity or residual money. This tends to be at the equity side of the. Of the stack. There's no. There's not necessarily any sort of specific ratios. I think each time there is an investment made by one of our capital partners, we tend to have a co investment that you know, varies depending on the relationship. I just said, so I guess there's no way to kind of think about or know how large that could be like, do you have expectations over the next few quarters like public deck of the. None that we're talking about explicitly, but I guess I would say, like we considered this to be a part of the overall sort of risk budget of the business and we've talked about making sure we stay at or under a level of about a billion dollars in asset risk and, you know, this is part of that envelope. So, you know, I would anticipate over time. I think we're going to try to do with you guys is have a conversation about the overall sort of risk position and risk budget of the company and we'll certainly have some views on on how big we would ever want that to get. I understand. Thank you so much. We will take our next question from Juliano, with compass point, please go ahead. I'm going to add a new risk sharing disclosure. I would be curious about and I realize this period is probably somewhat different because you did a loan sale and you had some of the forward funding agreements funding in the quarter. I'm curious if you can provide a rough sense of how much, you know, principle that that that risk 40 million or so of, you know, up down risk sharing covers.
当然。是的。我的意思是，它们往往位于资本堆栈的股权部分，如果你愿意这么说的话，借贷转让，你有高级资金、次级资金，以及股权或残余资金。这往往在堆栈的股权一侧。没有什么特定的比例。我认为每次我们的资本伙伴进行投资时，我们往往会有一次共同投资，这取决于关系的不同。刚才说的，所以我想没有办法去考虑或了解它有多大，就像，你对接下来的几个季度有什么期望，就像公共数据外表一样。没有我们明确讨论的内容，但我想我可以说，就像我们认为这是公司整体风险预算的一部分，我们已经谈过了确保我们在资产风险方面始终保持大约10亿美元的水平，而这就是其范围的一部分。所以，我想随着时间的推移，我们将尝试与你们之间进行关于公司整体风险定位和风险预算的对话，我们肯定对我们希望它能有多大有一些看法。我明白了，非常感谢。我们接下来请Juliano提问，他是compass point的，请继续。我将增加一个新的风险共担披露。我对此很感兴趣，我意识到这个时期可能有些不同，因为你进行了一笔贷款销售，并在本季度进行了一些预先资金协议的资助。我想知道你能否提供一个大致的概念，即这个风险共担覆盖了多少本金，大约有4000万左右的上下风险共担。
Hey Juliano, yeah, on the order of 800 million. Very helpful. Then, you know, the next thing I'd be curious about is just thinking about from a funding perspective, you have to build up the balance sheet and then just those some during 3Q of the ABS deal. I'm curious if you have a rough sense of how much balance sheet, so how much the volume was that flow through the balance sheet during the second quarter. So, thank you.
嗨朱利亚诺，是的，大约有8亿。非常有帮助。然后，你知道，下一件我会好奇的事情是从资金的角度思考，你必须建立起资产负债表，然后仅在第三季度进行一些ABS交易。我想知道在第二季度资产负债表上流动的数量大约是多少。所以，谢谢。
Yeah, I don't think we have that explicitly broken out, but I think that's something that you could probably deduce from the cash flow statement. We can point in the right direction when we chat later.
是的，我觉得我们没有明确分开列出来，但我认为你可以从现金流量表中推断出来。我们可以在之后的聊天中指出正确的方向。
I think that's something that we can do with the funds as well. And the only question I think which is a little bit of a follow up. Obviously, you know, on the forward funding agreement side, you've mentioned, you know, in the past roughly 500 million per quarter, you mentioned some additional partners. I'd be curious if that number changes and obviously that will impact kind of where the risk sharing goes because you know, you may not have large loan sales going forward. Be curious just to get their perspective on that.
我认为这也是我们可以用资金做的事情。而我想只有一个问题是稍微补充一下。显然，在前期资金协议方面，你提到过，大约每一季度有5亿美元的金额，你还提到了其他的合作伙伴。我想知道这个数字是否会有变化，显然这会影响到风险分享的去向，因为你将来可能没有大额贷款的销售。只是好奇听听你们对此的看法。
The amount of committed funding. Recorder expectation has grown. Yeah, that has changed last quarter that was mentioned was roughly 500 million per quarter. I'm curious if that has changed with the new funding agreements and based on the current arrangements in place. I would say not in a meaningful enough way to, you know, re announce it, if you will, as Dave mentioned, we did. We are working with a new partner in the capital world and they're now a contributing to our funding. But some of our constraints now are on the board side. And so I think, you know, given that we're probably in a similar ballpark. That's very helpful.
承诺资金的数量已经增加，记录者的预期也有所增长。是的，上个季度提到的大约每个季度5亿美元已经改变了。我很好奇在新的资金协议和当前的安排基础上是否有所改变。我认为并没有以足够明显的方式改变，您知道的，如果要重新宣布的话，正如Dave所提到的，我们正在与资本世界的一个新合作伙伴合作，他们正在为我们的资金做出贡献。但现在，我们在董事会方面有一些限制。因此，我认为，考虑到我们可能在一个相似的范围内。这非常有帮助。
I appreciate the questions and I will jump back into you. Thank you. We will take our next question from David Sharf with JMP Securities. Please go ahead. Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. A lot of been asked. I guess these are kind of extensions of what's already been offered up. But Sunday, you know, just back to, I guess, the funding side and how it impacts kind of how you're thinking about originations. I know you've reiterated sort of the comfort level of that billion dollar ceiling on retained assets. But is there any sort of targeted roadmap in it? And then I, you know, for year end where you'd like to get the balance sheet contracted to? Should we be thinking about all these new funding partners as vehicles for stepped up asset sales in the second half? Just trying to get a sense how we ought to think about the on balance sheet exposure going out six months. And ultimately how much room you have to, you know, re accelerate volumes when the macro environment dictates it.
谢谢你的问题，我会回答你的。谢谢。下一个问题由大卫·夏夫来自JMP证券。请发言。下午好，感谢你回答我的问题。很多问题都已经被问过了。我想这些问题都是之前提到的延伸。但是，就筹资方面和它对你的发起方式有何影响以及你对成立的种类有何看法方面，我知道你已经重新强调了对保留资产上限为十亿美元的舒适水平。但是是否有任何目标路线图？然后，你知道，你希望年末将资产负债表缩小到多少？我们是否应该将所有这些新的融资伙伴视为在下半年加强资产出售的手段？只是想要弄清楚我们应该如何看待未来六个月的资产负债表风险敞口。以及在宏观环境决定加速交易量的时候，你有多少空间来恢复交易量。
Hey, David. Sure. Let's see. I mean, a lot of it is dependent on the environment, of course. I mean, in an ideal world. What we love to do is reduce the balance sheet significantly. Apply it to R and D and begin to maybe apply more of it. Very surgically to these, you know, committed capital type co investments where we can unlock much larger. Cool, the third party capital. That's the ideal. Now we're in an environment where. Borrow demand is high funding markets are tight. And frankly, the collateral has. A lot of excess value. I think that their price for very high yields. And we can. Provide a lot of value to the business with one extra dollar origination. From the perspective that, you know, we obviously unlock a lot of take rate and then. Similarly, I think we've loaned their price for the deal. So it's a, it's a rational economic decision in the current environment. We love a normalized environment where there was, you know, plenty of third party capital. To satisfy the board demand. And we weren't in a position of using ours, but. You know, that will require essentially a normalization of the UMI and a normalization of the funding markets.
嘿，大卫。好的，让我们看看。我的意思是，很大程度上取决于环境，当然了。在理想的情况下，我们希望大幅减少资产负债表，将其应用于研发，并可能更多地应用于这些承诺资本类的共同投资，这样我们可以释放更大规模的第三方资本。很酷，这是理想的情况。现在我们处在一个需求借贷高、融资市场紧张的环境中。坦白说，现在抵押品的价值已经超过了很多。我认为他们对于高收益的定价很高。我们可以通过多拿一个额外的美元来给企业带来很大价值，从而解锁很高的利率。从我们的角度来看，我们显然会释放很大的利润率，而且我们认为他们对于这笔交易定价合理。所以在当前环境下，这是一个理性的经济决策。我们希望看到一个正常化的环境，即有足够的第三方资本来满足借贷需求，而我们不需要使用自己的资金。但是，这将需要UMI的正常化以及融资市场的正常化。
Got it. Sorry to say whether that will happen by the end of the year or not. I understood it. Maybe a follow up. You know, regarding the. The negative fair value marks, you know, again, this quarter. Were the downward revisions, are they mostly related to kind of discount rate prevailing rates? Is it more credit performance related or is it just based on. You know, with so many underperforming loans for sale out there, you know, just kind of prevailing market. Data points you're seeing and kind of related to that is it sort of evenly distributed. Those fair value decreases to personal loans and auto is a more concentrated in auto. Sure. Yeah.
明白了。很抱歉无法确定这件事是否会在年底之前发生。我已经理解了。或许会有跟进的消息。关于负面公允价值调整，你知道，又是在本季度出现了。这些下调的原因，主要与盛行的利率折现有关吗？还是更多与信用表现相关？还是仅仅基于，你知道，市场上有这么多表现不佳的贷款，根据现行市场数据来说，这种情况是否比较普遍？这些公允价值下降是均衡分布在个人贷款和汽车贷款中的吗？还是更偏向汽车贷款？当然。是的。
So in Q two. There's two things of about equal magnitude. One was on the unrealized fair value side where some of our assets, notably some of the co-investments who made. In some of these deals, they were, you know, they had applied to them a much deeper discount rates and we are anticipating by the third party value.
在第二季度中，有两件事情的影响程度相当。一件是关于未实现公允价值的一方面，其中包括我们的一些资产，特别是一些合作投资。在某些交易中，这些合作投资受到了远高于第三方估值的较深折现率的影响。
So that was a sort of an unrealized value reduction. And the other was what I mentioned earlier, which is, you know, predont well, I mean, our R and D portfolio, which is predominant. You know, they're, they're getting to a level of charge off. Now that are bringing down the, the NII line.
那是一种未实现的价值降低。另外一个是我之前提到的，即我们的研发项目组合，占主导地位。你知道的，它们正逐渐被核销，这将拉低净利息收入线。
I think if you're thinking about Q three and forward it's, it's predominantly the latter. It's, you know, old loans in the auto segment that were originated in a very different environment with a model that was still undergoing calibration. And so now that, you know, I think we've learned a lot in our calibration of the auto product and in terms of the scale and timing of that R and D effort.
我认为，如果你正在考虑第三季度及以后的情况，那主要是后者。你知道，旧车贷款是在完全不同的环境下发起的，而且当时的模型仍在进行校准。所以现在，我认为我们在调整汽车产品方面已经学到了很多经验，并在研发工作的规模和时机上进行了优化。
I think there's some great learnings we've had and how we will apply differently to, you know, the next set of products that we're going to calibrate. But, you know, the auto book that we have, that's really at the root of the charge offs that are coming through the piano now.
我认为我们获得了一些很棒的经验教训，以及我们将如何不同地应用到接下来要调整的产品组合中。但是，你知道的，我们现在正在遭受的违约损失实际上是由我们拥有的自动化系统引起的。
Great. Thanks so much. We will take our next question from Vincent Kaintik with Stevens. Please go ahead.
太好了，非常感谢。我们现在进入下一个提问环节，由Stevens公司的Vincent Kaintik提问。请提问。
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. First question, just kind of a big question, a picture question about your funding partners. You know, when we last spoke about the, the Castaway $2 billion, I think that was a proof of concept. So just wondering if you could talk about kind of the conversations they have to play even having from, from potential partners and kind of the mix between institutional investors versus the banks and other guys. And presumably, this capital investment side is very helpful in seeing that the assessed value is higher than the initial capital invested.
下午好。感谢您回答我的问题。首先一个比较重要的问题，关于您的资金合作伙伴的问题。您知道，我们上次谈到的埋葬城市20亿美元，我想这只是一种概念性证明。所以我想知道您是否可以谈谈有关可能合作伙伴之间的对话，以及机构投资者与银行以及其他人之间的比例。我猜测，这种资本投资对于观察到的评估价值高于最初的投资很有帮助。
So presumably that implies that the performance is better than kind of the initial agreement. So just sort of wondering if you could talk about the appetite over your discussions with your partners. Thank you.
所以可以推测这意味着性能优于最初的协议。所以，我想知道您与合作伙伴讨论时的兴趣程度。谢谢。
Sure. Yeah. So a couple of questions in there. This is Sunday. I'll sort of talk through them. The first question really is about the nature of discussions around these sort of capital type deals. We've done a couple of deals now. They obviously have a different flavor, but they all sort of get to the same thing, which is it's a, it's a counterparty that has the wherewithal to spend through, you know, through a cycle and for some committed period of time.
当然。嗯。那里面有几个问题。今天是星期天，我会简单地逐个解答它们。第一个问题实际上是关于这类资本交易讨论的性质。我们现在已经做了几笔交易，尽管它们的特点略有不同，但它们都指向了同一个目标，即乙方有能力在一个周期内以及一段承诺的时间内进行支出。
And in exchange, we think there's some pretty attractive return profiles for them. And as we've shown, we're willing to put our skin in the game alongside. And I think that's, that is on the one hand a very attractive conversation right now. And I think there's a lot of people who are engaging. On the other hand, as I said, you know, it's a, it's a market with a lot of distraction in it right now. And so these conversations are making progress, but I think they are, you know, there's a lot of company.
并且作为交换，我们认为这些公司有相当有吸引力的回报概况。正如我们所展示的，我们愿意与他们一同投入风险。我认为这是一个非常吸引人的话题。我相信有很多人正在参与其中。另一方面，就像我说的，这个市场现在非常分散，有很多干扰因素。所以这些对话正在取得进展，但我认为有很多竞争者。
And any investors selective right now has a lot of interesting options available. Some are, you know, ad hoc and one off others are more programmatic like the ones we're talking about with them. And so I think that it's proven to be an interesting and attractive option, but in a crowded field right now.
现在，任何有选择力的投资者都有许多有趣的选择。有些是临时性的、一次性的，其他一些则更具程序性，就像我们与他们讨论的那些选择一样。所以我认为，这已经被证明是一个有趣且吸引人的选择，但现在市场竞争激烈。
The, the split between institutional money and bank money. I would say, as we said in our remarks, some of our take rates benefit a disorder because there was a further shift towards institutional money. It's no secret that banks have challenges right now with liquidity. A lot of them, as we said, are looking to harvest cash. And so, you know, that that that was a, that was a sort of a mixed shift that happened in Q two, it wouldn't surprise me.
我认为，正如我们在前面提到的，机构资金与银行资金之间的分化正在加剧。毫无疑问，目前银行面临流动性方面的挑战。正如我们所说，很多银行正在寻求获取现金。因此，在第二季度发生了一种混合变化，这并不令人意外。
If, if that trend held or continue to be two, three. As for, as for the, the, the sort of the committed capital that we outlined in our investors slide. And how to think about it. I guess, first of all, we're saying that, you know, the, the, a large part of that. Initial investment of capital on our part wasn't just new originations.
如果该趋势持续保持为两三个，至于我们在投资者幻灯片中概述的承诺资本以及如何思考它，我猜首先我们要说的是，你知道的，我们的一大部分初次投资资本不仅仅是新的产生。
As you recall, there was a backbook transaction. That was a part of the Catholic deal that you mentioned. And so there was a sort of a one time sort of retention of basis in that deal. That's part of the 40 million.
正如你回忆起来的那样，有一笔反向书面交易。那是你提到的天主教交易的一部分。因此，在那笔交易中，有一种一次性的基础保留。这是4000万的一部分。
I would say most of the new originations that we. Produced under the guys are these committed capital deals in Q two are sort of on track and at par, if you will. The majority of the upside that we have between the 40 million that we invested in the 50 that was sort of, you know, assessing or forecasting is has to do with how the, the backbook itself was priced and how it was expected to perform and it is in fact, you know, beating those expectations.
我认为我们在第二季度生产的大部分新投资项目都是以合同资金的方式进行的，并且进展顺利。我们在投资的4,000万和原先预计的5,000万之间的大部分利润，主要与后续业务的定价以及预期的表现有关，事实上，它的表现超出了预期。
So it's less, I would say, a reflection of new originations, more reflection of the, of the backbook, which is a pretty sizable portion of that 40 million. I guess the other implication is as you think about how that might grow in the future, it certainly won't grow at the close of 40 million dollars a quarter based on the agreements we have in place.
这句话的意思是，我想说的是，这更多是对旧产品的反映，而不是对新产品的反映，这些旧产品占了这4000万中相当大的比例。我想另外一个含义是，当你考虑它将来如何增长时，根据我们目前的协议，它绝对不会以每个季度4000万美元的速度增长。
Okay, that's super helpful. A quick follow up. So the take rates presumably from the, the mix shift and funding, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that the take rate holds or even gets better going forward. Just wanted to confirm that. Thank you.
好的，非常有帮助。有一个快速的追问。由于产品组合转变和资金支持，收费率保持不变甚至变得更好是可以预期的，这种假设并不过分。只是想确认一下。谢谢。
So in aggregate, you can see that we've sort of guided to relatively flat contribution margin next quarter, maybe marginally lower. And so I think you could probably infer from that that our take rates, we're assuming that they're going to be roughly stable to this quarter in the medium to longer term as Dave said we would expect with a normalizing economy for our take rates to slowly, to slowly subside.
综上所述，我们可以看到，下个季度我们的贡献利润率可能会保持相对平稳，可能稍微下降一点。所以从这个可以推断出，在中长期内我们预计交易费率会大致稳定，就像Dave所说的，随着经济逐渐恢复正常，我们预计交易费率会缓慢下降。
That's very helpful. Thank you. Thank you.
非常有帮助。谢谢你。谢谢你。
And we have time for one more question and we will go to Simon Klinch with Atlanta equities. Please go ahead.
我们还有时间回答一个问题，接下来请Simon Klinch与亚特兰大股权交流。请提问。
Hi guys. Thanks for taking my second question. I'm actually wondering, maybe Dave, if you could talk a bit more about the parallel time and curve calibration because I guess I'm not the most tech savvy person and it sounded an awful lot like back testing to me, but you say it is. And so I'll be really interested in how it differs or why isn't it back testing and why you, I guess, what this really means in terms of your ability to capture the next wave of, well, actually managed through the next cycle that we see in much better fashion than you have done in the last couple of years.
大家好。感谢你们解答我第二个问题。我实际上想知道，也许Dave，你能否多谈一些关于平行时间和曲线校准的内容，因为我觉得我不是最懂技术的人，听起来很像是回测，但你说不是。所以我很想知道它与回测的区别，为什么不是回测，以及我猜这对你能否更好地捕捉下一个浪潮，真的比过去几年做得更好有什么实际意义。
Yeah, sure. Simon, I mean, it ultimately comes down to being able to calibrate a model as quickly as possible, which really just leaps you into developing the next model and so at the heart of it, it's about, you know, model development speed. But the way it generally works is, you know, a back test is when you, you know, you apply, you apply a new model to a bunch of old loans and see if it can accurately predict their outcome. I mean, that's sort of the way that models are developed in the first place is is something like a very large back test. It's essentially what AI training is. But in this case, what we're actually doing is not predicting the past, but predicting the future for loans that a different model had originated. And so what that really means is I said earlier, normally, you know, if you have 36 month loans, if you want to get accuracy, see, see that, you know, the performance of the model to the entire timing curve, you need to wait 36 months, of course. But if you have a diverse set of loans that were originated all sorts of times in the past several years, even in the first month, you're getting observations into all 36 months of the timing curve. And that's because you have re underwritten model loans that were originally done under a different model, but you're not predicting the past you're predicting what they'll do in the next month and the month after that. So that's what's really unique about it is, it is the true model, it is predicting, you know, future performance of loans, but it's predicting the future of loans that it didn't originally was not originally used to originate. And that's kind of the magic of it is it just gives you a lot more data about the performance of your loan specifically about the timing curve. Then you could get, which would normally again take much longer time. And that's the heart of it. It's, it's a very novel notion. It helps you have a very clear understanding of how your models performing very, very quickly. And, and not all goes toward towards speed.
是的，Simon，我是说，最终关键在于能够尽快校准模型，这实际上将推动您开发下一个模型，因此，本质上就是与模型开发速度有关。通常的工作方式是，你进行了一个回测，也就是将一个新模型应用于一系列旧贷款，并查看其是否能够准确预测其结果。我是说，这种模型开发方式本质上就是一个非常大的回测。本质上就是AI训练的过程。但是，在这种情况下，我们实际上所做的不是预测过去，而是预测了由不同模型初始生成的贷款的未来情况。因此，这真正意味着，正如我之前所说，通常情况下，如果你有36个月的贷款，如果你想要准确度，你需要等待36个月。但是，如果你有一系列多样化的贷款，这些贷款是在过去几年中的各个时期初始生成的，即使在第一个月，你也可以观察到完整的36个月的时间曲线。这是因为你复核了最初是使用不同模型生成的贷款模型，但你并不是在预测过去，你预测的是它们在接下来的一个月和下个月会发生什么。这就是其中的独特之处，这是真正的模型，它预测了贷款的未来表现，但预测的是最初不用于生成贷款的贷款的未来表现。这就是其中的魔力所在，它为您提供了关于贷款性能的更多数据，特别是关于时间曲线的数据。而通常情况下，要得到这些数据需要更长的时间。这就是关键所在。这是一个非常新颖的概念。它帮助您快速而清晰地了解模型的性能，而且不仅仅是速度的问题。
Okay, great. Thanks. I'm going to go back to school on that one. Thank you. We might try to write something up on this to get for the for the nerds who really want to dig deep into how this something like this works. We will probably try to put something out there.
好的，太棒了。谢谢你。我会在这个问题上回去学校的。谢谢。也许我们会尝试写一些关于这个的东西，给那些真的想深入了解这个如何运作的技术宅们。我们可能会努力发布一些相关内容。
And that concludes today's question and answer session. I will turn the conference back to Dave Gerard for any additional or closing remarks.
今天的问题和答案环节到此结束。我将把会议交还给戴夫·杰拉德，以便进行其他或总结性的发言。
Heidi, thanks to everybody for joining us today. I'm confident that financial services and lending in particular will be one of the bright shining stars for AI in the coming years and in the coming decades. And we believe a show company better position to leave that transformation than upstart. Thanks for joining us today. We'll see you next time.
海蒂，感谢大家今天的参与。我相信金融服务，特别是贷款业务，将在未来几年和几十年里成为人工智能的明星产业之一。我们相信，没有比创业公司更适合引领这一变革的了。感谢今天的参与，我们下次再见。
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与，您可以现在挂断电话。