Tesla Q2 Earnings // 4680 Updates & Emerging Revenue Streams
发布时间 2023-08-02 15:09:30 来源
Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geesege and this is The Limiting Factor. Last week in Tesla's Q2-2023 earnings call, we found out that Tesla's 4680 battery cells have now reached energy density parity with conventional 2170 battery cells. Today I'm going to walk you through how that was likely done and the implications for Tesla's vehicles. But there's a lot more to talk about from the earnings call than just that, and in my view this was one of the most bullish earnings calls for Tesla's long-term prospects of the past few years. Let's get into it.
大家欢迎回来，我是乔丹·吉奇吉，这是《限制因素》节目。上周在特斯拉2023年第二季度收益电话会议上，我们了解到特斯拉的4680电池单元现在已经达到与传统的2170电池单元的能量密度平衡。今天我将为您解析这可能是如何实现的，以及对特斯拉车辆的影响。但这次电话会议的内容远不止这些，依我看，这是过去几年来对特斯拉长期前景最看好的一次收益电话会议之一。让我们深入探讨一下。
Before we begin, a special thanks to my Patreon supporters, YouTube members and Twitter subscribers, as well as RebellionAir.com. They specialize in helping investors manage concentrated positions. RebellionAir can help with covered calls, risk management, and creating a money master plan from your financial first principles.
在我们开始之前，特别感谢我的Patreon赞助者、YouTube会员和Twitter订阅者，以及RebellionAir.com。他们专注于帮助投资者管理集中头寸。RebellionAir可以帮助进行看涨期权合约、风险管理，并从您的财务基本原则中制定一个资金主计划。
I'm going to start with a 10,000 foot view of the earnings call and then get into Drew's comments about 4680 production in Texas. Feel free to jump to the section about the 4680 if that's your main interest.
我将从一个整体的角度开始介绍收益电话会议，并进入德鲁对德克萨斯州4680生产的评论。如果你对4680最感兴趣，请随时跳转到相关章节。
The 10,000 foot view of the earnings call is that over the years Tesla's given us the vision for several other businesses within Tesla beyond EVs. Now they're at the point where the huge development expenses they've poured into those bets are at various stages of execution, scaling, and disruption. In my opinion, that means within the next two to three years. Collectively and in some cases individually, those other bets could rival Tesla's vehicle business or even dwarf it. Let's take a look at each.
从整体上来看，特斯拉的收益电话表明，多年来特斯拉为我们展示了其在电动车之外的多个业务领域的愿景。现在他们正处在各种开发费用投入进这些业务的不同执行、扩展和颠覆阶段。在我看来，在未来的两到三年内，这意味着这些其他投资将会集体或者在某些情况下单独与特斯拉的汽车业务竞争，甚至可能超越它。我们来分别看一下每个业务。
First, my view is that Tesla will actually make self-trading vehicles a profitable business within the next two to three years. I've always been hesitant about making calls about robo taxis, but it seems like Tesla now has a good handle on the real world AI problem for vehicles. They have an enormous amount of training data collected around 300 million miles and they'll be investing over a billion dollars in compute in the next year to accelerate iteration times.
首先，我的观点是特斯拉将在未来两到三年内使自动驾驶汽车成为一项盈利业务。我一直对于自动出租车领域持有犹豫的态度，但现在看来，特斯拉似乎已经对车辆的真实世界AI问题有了很好的掌握。他们已经收集了大约3亿英里的大量训练数据，并将在明年投资超过10亿美元用于加速迭代时间的计算能力。
Second, building on that, I expect Tesla to keep expanding their dojo compute system to the point where they could start selling compute power to third parties. Whether they actually will is a different story. Tesla may find it more profitable to use that compute for robo taxis and the Optimus robot or more beneficial to share some of that compute with Elon's new artificial intelligence startup X.ai. It all really depends on how the exponential growth curves developed for each of those businesses. Regardless, if Tesla keeps scaling compute as aggressively as possible, at some point, I expect they will end up with compute that could be more profitably sold to third parties. When they do, the dojo compute business could eventually be as large as Amazon Web Services or NVIDIA.
其次，基于此，我预计特斯拉将继续扩大他们的道场计算系统，到达可以开始向第三方销售计算能力的程度。他们是否真的会这样做是另一回事。特斯拉可能会发现，将这种计算能力用于机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能够获得更高的利润，或者与埃隆的新人工智能创业公司X.ai分享部分计算能力会更有益。这一切都取决于每个业务的指数增长曲线如何发展。不管怎样，如果特斯拉继续尽可能积极地扩展计算能力，我预计他们最终会拥有更有利可图的计算能力，可以向第三方销售。当他们这样做时，道场计算业务最终可能与亚马逊网络服务或NVIDIA一样庞大。
Third, Tesla's supercharger network now has over 50,000 charging connectors. Nearly every major OEM in the US is switching to Tesla's charging standard and Tesla has the most reliable charging network. At an expected 30% gross margin and 10% profitability, the supercharger network is a huge and expanding asset with captive demand that will be a cash cow for years to come. That was always expected to be the case for Tesla's vehicle fleet. But now almost all EVs that will be sold in the US will be using the supercharger network, which expands the profit potential.
第三，特斯拉的超级充电站网络现已拥有超过50,000个充电连接器。几乎美国的每个主要原始设备制造商都在转向特斯拉的充电标准，并且特斯拉拥有最可靠的充电网络。根据预期，超级充电站网络具有30%的毛利率和10%的盈利能力，它是一个巨大而不断扩大的资产，拥有忠实的需求，将成为未来多年的摇钱树。这在特斯拉的车队一直是预料之中的情况。但现在，几乎所有在美国出售的电动车将使用超级充电站网络，这扩大了盈利潜力。
Fourth, on a percentage basis, Tesla's megapack energy storage business is expected to grow faster than the vehicle business and therefore will have an increasing impact on profitability. Although profits are uneven due to when the revenue is recognized, smoothed over time, the production rate is increasing steadily and rapidly. The ramp of Tesla's full-scale megapack production facility in California is going well, and it still has more room to reach full capacity. Furthermore, in the investor's slide deck, Tesla said the California megapack factory is just the first of many. This aligns with what I said a couple of weeks ago on Twitter, which is that in the next few years, I expect Tesla to announce megapack factories for each of the 10 largest global economies. That's because megapack factories may not need to be as large and complex as gigafactories to reach economies of scale, and because megapacks are more difficult to move around than vehicles. So it may make sense to localize production to reduce logistics costs.
第四，就百分比而言，特斯拉的Megapack能源储存业务预计将比汽车业务增长更快，因此对盈利能力的影响将越来越大。尽管由于收入确认的时间不一致，利润并不稳定，但随着时间的推移，特斯拉的产量稳定而快速地增加。特斯拉在加利福尼亚州全尺寸Megapack生产设施的扩建进展顺利，而且还有更多空间来达到满负荷生产能力。此外，在投资者幻灯片中，特斯拉表示加利福尼亚州的Megapack工厂仅仅是第一个。这与我几周前在Twitter上所说的一致，即在未来几年内，我预计特斯拉将宣布为全球前十大经济体建立Megapack工厂。这是因为Megapack工厂可能不需要像超级工厂那样大而复杂才能实现规模经济，而且由于能源储存装置相对于汽车更难移动，因此将生产本土化可能有助于降低物流成本。
On screen are the top 10 largest economies in the world. The green check indicates countries that Elon has personally visited and met with political leadership in the past year, where Tesla said they'd like to build a factory in the past year, or where Tesla already has a factory. That is, there seems to be an intent to expand into all these countries. Japan appears to be an exception, but it may just mean the plans aren't public yet.
屏幕上显示着世界上前十大经济体。绿色勾勾表示埃隆过去一年内亲自访问并与政治领导人会面的国家，特斯拉在过去一年中表示希望在那里建厂的国家，或者特斯拉已经拥有工厂的国家。也就是说，似乎有意向扩张到所有这些国家。日本似乎是个例外，但这可能只是意味着计划尚未公开。
For the countries that do have green checks, I doubt the intent is for every one of those countries to have a gigafactory in the near term. So my view is that many will likely be megapack factories. That's just my opinion, of course. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
对于那些标有绿色勾号的国家，我怀疑目的并不是让每个国家在近期都建立一个巨大的工厂。所以我的看法是，很多可能会成为巨型电池工厂。当然，这只是我的个人观点。请在下方评论中告诉我你的想法。
The fifth technology bet is the Optimus robot. This one is a bit more far-fetched on a two to three year time frame. However, Tesla's beginning the production ramp of the bot later this year and expects to start using it in factories to a limited extent next year. Of course, it'll take time to develop its capabilities, so I expect it'll be 2025 to 2026 before it starts making any real impact on their production lines, and it may be even longer before it becomes a saleable product. Either way, it's good to see Tesla moving so quickly with Optimus, and there is some potential there on a two to three year time frame.
第五项技术赌注是Optimus机器人。在两到三年的时间框架内，这个赌注可能更为牵强一些。然而，特斯拉将在今年晚些时候开始生产该机器人，并计划在明年在工厂中有限地开始使用它。当然，开发其功能需要时间，所以我预计在2025年至2026年之前，它才会对他们的生产线产生真正的影响，甚至在它成为一个可销售产品之前可能需要更长时间。无论如何，看到特斯拉在Optimus方面行动如此迅速是好事，并且在两到三年的时间框架内存在一些潜力。
Overall, what these five startups within Tesla mean is that although Wall Street is penalizing Tesla in the short term, I expect they'll be rewarding them in the long term if and when these bets play out. Elon and Zach Kirkhorn each had excellent quotes from the earnings call to that effect. Elon said, quote, frankly, I think it's ridiculous that we have free positive cash flow in a capital intensive business while investing massive amounts of money in new technology. That is super hard, end quote. That is, Tesla is not just a profitable company in an extremely brutal industry, the auto industry. They have some of the highest operating margins, even after taking into account the money they've invested in new technology to plant the seeds for future growth.
总的来说，这五家特斯拉内部的初创公司意味着，尽管华尔街在短期内对特斯拉进行处罚，但如果这些押注成功，我期望他们在长期内会获得回报。伊隆和扎克·科克霍恩在盈利电话会议中都有出色的引语，表达了这一看法。伊隆说，引用一句话，坦率地说，我认为在一个资本密集型的行业中，我们实现了自由的正现金流入，同时在新技术中投入了大量资金，这是荒谬的。那是非常困难的，结束引用。也就是说，特斯拉不仅是在一个极其残酷的行业——汽车行业中盈利的公司，他们还拥有一些最高的营运利润率，即使考虑到他们在新技术上投资的金额，为未来的增长播下了种子。
Zach Kirkhorn said, quote, you know, soon enough, these quarters will be behind us. They won't be part of the present value of future cash flows of the business. And so we want to make sure we keep that view and make sure that the long term of the business is exactly the way we want it to be. End quote. That is quarterly financial reports are only part of the picture for Tesla. They don't reflect the profits Tesla expects from investments they have made and continue to make in technology. Tesla's a company for long term investors focused on the fundamentals. That's why on this channel, I don't focus on the stock price or quarterly earnings. I focus on the engineering and base technology. To me, that's more interesting and a better indicator of investor value. As always, that's not financial advice and always do your own research.
Zach Kirkhorn说道：“你知道的，很快这些季度将被我们抛在身后。它们不会成为公司未来现金流价值的一部分。因此，我们希望确保保持这个观点，确保公司的长期发展完全符合我们的期望。” 这就是说，特斯拉的季度财务报告只是整个画面的一部分。它们不能反映特斯拉从技术投资中预计的利润，而特斯拉会继续进行技术投资。特斯拉是以长期投资者为目标的公司，专注于基本面。这也是为什么在这个渠道上，我不关注股价或季度收益，而是更关注工程和基本技术。对我来说，这更有趣，也是投资价值的一个更好指标。一如既往，这并不是财务建议，请始终自行研究。
With the 10,000 foot view of the earnings call out of the way, let's move on to one of Elon's comments from the opening remarks. Quote, we continue to target 1.8 million vehicle deliveries this year, although we expect that Q3 production will be a little bit down because we've got some shutdowns for a lot of factory upgrades. So just probably a slight decrease in production in Q3 for global factory upgrades. End quote. The reason I bring this quote up is because there's rumors that Tesla will be upgrading the standard range Model 3 with a new M3P battery chemistry from CATL that provides 10% more range. I'd say there's about a 50-50 chance of that and I plan on releasing a video on the topic next month. The M3P battery chemistry is very promising, but like all chemistries, it does have strengths and weaknesses, so I wouldn't yet call it a sure thing. Overall, in the long term, I think M3P batteries will replace LFP batteries in most vehicles. So really, it's more a matter of when than if in my view. But again, as I said, I'll share what I know on the topic next month so that you can form your own view.
在对收益电话总体情况有了一定了解后，让我们继续来看埃隆在开场致辞中的一段评论。引用："尽管我们预计第三季度的生产会稍有下降，因为我们要进行大量工厂升级的停产，但我们仍然目标是今年完成180万辆交付。因此，第三季度的生产可能会稍有下降，全球工厂正在进行升级。"引用结束。我之所以提到这段引文，是因为有传言称特斯拉将会使用国家电投新的M3P电池化学体系对标准续航版Model 3进行升级，从而提供10%的额外续航里程。我认为这方面的可能性有50-50，并计划在下个月发布一段视频来探讨这个话题。M3P电池化学体系非常有潜力，但像所有的化学体系一样，它也有其优势和不足之处，所以我不能确定它是否会付诸实施。总体而言，从长期来看，我认为M3P电池将会取代大多数车辆中的LFP电池。所以实际上，问题更多是关于何时而不是是否。不过，正如我所说，我将在下个月分享我所了解的信息，以便您能够形成自己的观点。
Next, let's move on to the meat of the earnings call from a battery perspective. Drew Baglino made several points about 4680 production on their first full-scale production line in Texas.
接下来，我们从电池的角度来看，进入到盈利电话的核心部分。德鲁·巴格里诺在他们在德克萨斯州的首条大规模生产线上就4680电池的生产提出了几个观点。
First, 4680 cell production increased by 80% in Q2 over Q1, and the team surpassed 10 million cells produced in Texas. The question is, 80% more than what? I played around with production ramp scenarios and on screen is the result. Bear in mind, the goal here wasn't to arrive at exact production numbers, but just to give an indication of how the production ramp is progressing.
首先，在二季度相较于一季度，4680电池的产量增加了80%，并且我们的团队在德克萨斯生产了超过1000万个电池。然而，问题是，80%相对于什么？我进行了一些生产增长方案的尝试，并在屏幕上呈现了结果。请记住，我们的目标并非得出确切的生产数字，而只是为了展示生产增长的趋势。
Assuming production started in October of last year, 10 million cells were produced by June, and there was an 80% increase in production from Q1 to Q2. That would mean a run rate of about 70,000 cells per day in June, which is roughly 2.4 gigawatt hours per year. Depending on the pack size, 2.4 gigawatt hours of cells is enough for an annual run rate of 12 to 24,000 cyber trucks. If Tesla continues growing production speed by the 21% per month improvement rate seen between January to June, that would mean that they could reach 20 million total cells produced sometime in October.
假设生产始于去年十月，到六月为止已生产了一千万个电池，并且第二季度的产量比第一季度增长了80%。这意味着到六月为止每天的电池产量约为70,000个，大约相当于每年2.4吉瓦时。根据电池组的大小，2.4吉瓦时的电池足够支持每年生产12,000至24,000辆Cyber Truck。如果特斯拉能够保持每月21%的产量改善速度（从一月到六月的速度），那么在十月份之前他们将累计生产2千万个电池。
That production volume, of course, depends on what Tesla's focusing on, whether it's cost or production rate. But the key message here is that now that Tesla's full-scale line is hitting multi-gigawatt hour annual production rates, it doesn't take large month-over-month percentage increases in production rate to see substantial gains in absolute production rate and total cell volume.
当然，这个生产量取决于特斯拉关注的是成本还是产量。但关键的信息是，现在特斯拉的全面生产线正在达到多千兆瓦小时的年产量水平，为了实现绝对产量和总电池容量的大幅增长，并不需要每个月都有大幅度的产量增长百分比。
So the first data point alone from June is excellent news, especially if we pair it with another piece of information that we picked up at Investor Day in Texas. The people who received the tour of the 4680 line were told that both the cathode and anode were using Tesla's dry battery electrode process. That is, we're finally seeing Tesla start to head a decent production volume on the production system laid out at Battery Day three years ago.
所以，单单从六月的第一个数据点来看，这是个非常好的消息，尤其是如果我们将其与我们在德克萨斯的投资者日获得的另一份信息进行对比。参观了4680生产线的人们被告知阴极和阳极都使用了特斯拉的干电池电极工艺。也就是说，我们终于看到特斯拉开始在三年前的电池日所规划的生产系统上实现了相当的产量。
Not yet what I'd consider volume production, which is about seven to eight times higher than the current 2.4-gigawatt hour run rate, but it's now at least potentially on the horizon. Bear in mind that as far as I'm aware, Tesla only has one 4680 line in production in Texas. If they're running more than one production line, I wouldn't view the increasing production rate as positively. That's potentially a good question for the next earnings call. How many 4680 lines are operational in Texas?
目前这还谈不上大规模生产，大规模生产的规模大约是当前2.4千兆瓦时运营速度的七到八倍，但至少现在已经有可能在不远的将来实现了。请记住，就我所知，特斯拉在德克萨斯州只有一条4680生产线在生产。如果他们运营了多条生产线，我不会对生产率的增加持乐观态度。这可能是下次财报电话会议的一个好问题。在德克萨斯州有多少条4680生产线正在运作？
Drew's second point was that the 4680 line in Texas reduced its scrap build by 40% quarter over quarter, which resulted in a 25% lower production cost. One way to think about the significance of what Drew is saying here is that while the number of cells they produced was 80% higher than the previous quarter, the amount of waste was reduced by 40%, which means the efficiency of their material use roughly tripled.
Drew在第二点中提到，德州的4680生产线使其废料减少了40%，从而降低了25%的生产成本。想要明白Drew在这里所说的意义，一种方式是，尽管他们生产的电池数量比上一季度高了80%，但废料量减少了40%，这意味着他们的材料利用效率大约提高了三倍。
As for the 25% reduction in production cost, that's good to know, but without a baseline, it doesn't give us a feel for Tesla's total cell cost, which is what we're really curious about.
有关生产成本下降25％的消息是好听的，但是没有一个基线，我们无法了解到特斯拉的总电池成本，这才是我们真正感兴趣的。
Next, the bomb that Drew dropped that attracted the most attention was that they're preparing to launch their Cybertruck cell with 10% higher energy density than current production. There are a number of ways to interpret that, but by current production, I'm assuming he means the Generation 1 4680 cells currently going into model-wise versus the Generation 2 4680 cell that'll launch in the Cybertruck.
接下来，Drew引起最大关注的消息是他们正在准备推出能量密度比目前生产的电池要高出10%的Cybertruck电池。对于这个消息有很多种解释方式，但是根据目前的生产情况，我认为他指的是正在用于其他车型的第一代4680电池，而不是即将在Cybertruck中推出的第二代4680电池。
Although some people are assuming that the Cybertruck cell is an even newer third-generation cell or a cell with a different format, I think what Drew said next reinforces my view that it's just the Gen 2 cell. He said the 10% energy density improvement was achieved through process and mechanical design optimization.
尽管有人认为Cybertruck电池可能是全新的第三代电池或者是一种不同结构的电池，但我认为Drew接下来说的话强化了我认为它只是第二代电池的观点。他表示，这种10%的能量密度提升是通过工艺和机械设计的优化实现的。
As I've said in past videos, there are a number of opportunities to increase the energy density between the Gen 1 and Gen 2 cell designs purely through engineering rather than chemistry improvements. On screen is an x-ray of a Gen 1 cell, compliments of Antonio at Monroe and Associates. Notice the mostly empty space at the top and bottom of the cell between the active material and the cell can, and also the hollow space in the core.
正如我在之前的视频中所说的，通过工程设计而不是化学改进，Gen 1和Gen 2电池设计之间有许多增加能量密度的机会。屏幕上显示了一个Gen 1电池的X光，感谢Monroe和Associates的Antonio提供。请注意，在活性物质和电池罐之间以及核心中的大部分空白空间。
Although the space in the core is to a certain extent necessary for the rolling spindle and because electrodes tend to delaminate when wound too tightly, there's definitely wasted space in the cell that could be utilized with design and manufacturing improvements to increase energy density. Additionally, although some people disagree, my view is that the cell can is too thick, making up a whopping 20% of the total weight of the cell. That is, overall, it's not hard to see how Tesla could increase the energy density by 10% with improvements to the design that we see in the Gen 2 cell.
尽管在电池芯部分需要一定的空间来容纳滚动的主轴，并且由于电极容易在绕得过紧时剥离，但电池中存在一些被浪费的空间，通过设计和制造的改进可以利用这些空间来提高能量密度。此外，尽管有人对此持不同意见，我认为电池的外壳太厚，占据了整个电池的惊人20%的总重量。总体来说，我们很容易看出，特斯拉通过改进第二代电池芯设计可以增加能量密度10%。
If you'd like to know more about the design of the Gen 1 and Gen 2 cells, I covered them in depth in a video last year which I'll link above.
如果您想了解更多关于一代和二代电池的设计，我在去年的一个视频中进行了深入讲解，您可以点击上方的链接进行观看。
What all this means is that although I do expect further improvements to the Gen 2 cell in the future, it'll likely be small percentage increases rather than the 10% increase that Drew's claiming. That means the Gen 2 cell and the Cybertruck cell are most likely one in the same.
所有这一切的意思是，尽管我确实期待未来对第二代电池的进一步改进，但可能只会得到一些小幅度的提升，而不是Drew所声称的10%增长。这意味着第二代电池和Cybertruck使用的电池很可能是同一款。
The last key point from Drew was that the Cybertruck cell, or Cybertruck, is at their expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis, and that they haven't yet integrated silicon or in-house cathode production, which will bring further energy density and cost improvements.
Drew最后一个关键点是，Cybertruck电池或称为Cybertruck，在基于同类电化学原理的预期之内，并且他们还没有融合硅或自家正极材料生产，这将带来更高的能量密度和成本改善。
What Drew is saying here is that the 4680 is now on par with the 2170 battery cell, despite still not fully incorporating all the advantages that some 2170 cells have, like high energy density silicon.
德鲁在这里所说的是，尽管4680电池还没有完全融合一些2170电池所具有的优点，如高能量密度硅材料，但它已经与2170电池达到了同等水平。
Let's lay that out more clearly. On screen is a comparison of four different battery cells. The 4680 cell I tested last year with Shirley Mung's lab at UC San Diego, the Gen 2 cell with a 10% energy density improvement, the Panasonic 2170 cell that goes into Tesla's US-made long-range vehicles that uses silicon to boost its energy density, and an LG Chem 2170 battery cell that doesn't use silicon that's been used in Tesla's vehicles in China.
让我们更清楚地表述一下。屏幕上展示了四种不同的电池单元进行比较。其中包括去年我在加州圣地亚哥大学与Shirley Mung的实验室测试的4680单元，具有10%能量密度改进的第二代单元，用于特斯拉美国制造的长续航车辆的 Panasonic 2170 单元，使用硅来提高能量密度的LG Chem 2170电池单元，该单元在特斯拉中国车辆中使用。
I've also added a row at the bottom, which is an average of the two 2170 cells. As you can see, the energy density of the silicon-free Gen 2 4680 cell comes in at 268 watt-hours per kilogram, which is higher than the energy density of the silicon-free LG 2170 with 252 watt-hours per kilogram and lower than the silicon-containing Panasonic 2170 that probably maxes out between 275 to 278 watt-hours per kilogram.
我还在底部添加了一行，这是两个2170电池的平均值。从您可以看到，不含硅的Gen 2 4680电池的能量密度为268瓦时/千克，高于不含硅的LG 2170的252瓦时/千克，低于可能达到275至278瓦时/千克的含硅Panasonic 2170电池。
If we take an average of the two 2170 cells, the 4680 cell actually comes out slightly ahead by about three watt-hours per kilogram. Bear in mind, for the Gen 2 cell figures, I had to extrapolate using Tesla's advice of a 10% energy density increase. When one of those cells becomes available, I'll try to get my hands on one to test and confirm Tesla's claims.
如果我们将两个2170电池的平均值，与4680电池相比，每公斤的能量密度实际上会略高出大约三瓦时。但请记住，在Gen 2电池的数据中，我不得不使用特斯拉提供的10%能量密度增加的建议进行外推。当其中一种电池可用时，我将努力获取一个来测试和确认特斯拉的声明。
The next question is, now that the 4680 cell is roughly on par with the average 2170 battery cell, what does that mean for Tesla's vehicles? Before we look at that, I want to give my thoughts on Tesla's progress here. Not only have they increased production rates over the past year, they've also reduced scrap and increased energy density while developing a new battery production technology in the form of the dry battery electrode coating process.
下一个问题是，既然4680电池大致与普通的2170电池持平，那对特斯拉的车辆意味着什么？在我们讨论这个之前，我想先谈一谈特斯拉在这方面的进展。他们不仅在过去一年提高了生产率，还减少了废品，并提高了能量密度，同时还研发了一种新的电池生产技术，即干态电池电极涂层工艺。
So, although the pace of the 4680 ramp has been moving slower than expected, the battery team at Tesla is working furiously behind the scenes to incorporate as many fundamental improvements as possible. So, when the 4680 line is copied, it'll be cheaper to copy, quicker to scale, and produce higher energy density cells.
因此，尽管4680扩产的速度较预期更为缓慢，特斯拉的电池团队正在幕后努力工作，竭尽所能地加入尽可能多的重要改进。因此，当4680生产线复制时，它将更便宜、更快速扩展，并生产更高能量密度的电池。
Let's now look at what the Gen 2 4680 or cybercell means for Tesla's vehicles. We'll start with the 4680 pack in the Model Y to establish a baseline and work up from there. The 4680 battery pack currently being used in the standard range all-wheel drive Model Y produced in Texas is using Gen 1 battery cells from K-Toe Road. The usable energy density of that pack is around 67.5 kWh. If Tesla swapped out the Gen 1 cells in the standard range all-wheel drive Texas Model Y to Gen 2 cells, it would increase the pack energy to about 74 kWh and the range from about 279 miles to about 307 miles.
现在让我们来看看Gen 2 4680电池或cybercell对特斯拉车辆的意义。我们将从在Model Y上使用的4680电池包开始，以建立一个基准，并从那里开始逐渐提高。目前在得克萨斯生产的标准全轮驱动型号Y中使用的4680电池组使用的是来自K-Toe Road的Gen 1电池。该电池组的可用能量密度约为67.5千瓦时。如果特斯拉将标准全轮驱动型号Y的得克萨斯车型中的Gen 1电池替换为Gen 2电池，它将增加电池组能量约为74千瓦时，并将续航里程从约279英里增加到约307英里。
Note, at this point, I think it's unlikely that Tesla will upgrade the 4680 pack in the Model Y because I expect they'll launch the second generation cell in one vehicle at a time. The reason I picked the Model Y is to work from a familiar battery pack to more hypothetical battery packs.
在目前这个阶段，我认为特斯拉不太可能在Model Y上升级4680电池组，因为我预计他们会逐步在一个车型上推出第二代电池。我选择Model Y的原因是因为可以从一个熟悉的电池组开始，逐渐过渡到更多假设的电池组。
Moving along, if they used a Model Y battery pack upgraded with Gen 2 cells in the Model 3, which is slightly more efficient, it would provide a range of about 339 miles. The new Long Range Model 3 is slated to have about 333 miles of range. Does that mean the new Model 3 is using the new 4680 pack with the Gen 2 cell? In my view, no, because the current battery packs in the Model 3 use an older design that's non-structural and may not be compatible with a 4680 structural pack.
继续讲，如果他们在Model 3上使用了一款通过了第二代电池升级的Model Y电池包，这款电池包稍微更有效率，将会提供大约339英里的续航里程。新的长续航Model 3预计会有大约333英里的续航里程。这是否意味着新的Model 3正在使用新的4680电池包和第二代电池？在我看来，并不是，因为当前Model 3所使用的电池包采用的是旧设计，不具备结构性，并且可能与4680结构电池包不兼容。
It's more likely that the Long Range Model 3 will be using a battery pack that contains lower energy density LG Chem battery cells from China. Let's move on to the next level of speculation for the Gen 2 4680 cell. Some people might remember that the 4680 battery pack in the Model Y doesn't fully utilize all the space in the pack and there was room for more cells. In a previous video, I calculated that if the excess space were filled with battery cells, the nominal energy of the pack would increase from 71.6 kilowatt hours to 83.5 kilowatt hours and the energy density would increase from about 160 watt hours per kilogram to 167 watt hours per kilogram.
更有可能的是，Model 3的远程型号将使用中国LG Chem低能量密度的电池组。让我们进入下一层次的推测，关于第二代4680电池。
有些人可能记得，Model Y的4680电池组并未充分利用其所有的空间，还有更多的空间可用于电池。在之前的视频中，我计算出如果将多余的空间填满电池，电池组的标称电量将从71.6千瓦时增加到83.5千瓦时，能量密度将从约160瓦时/千克增加到167瓦时/千克。
If those cells were swapped out with Gen 2 cells, that would mean a pack energy of around 91.85 kilowatt hours and a pack level energy density of around 183 watt hours per kilogram.
如果将这些电池更换为Gen 2电池，那意味着电池组能量约为91.85千瓦小时，电池组能量密度约为183瓦时/千克。
If that pack were placed in a Model 3, which I don't expect to happen anytime soon, it would mean over 400 miles of range.
如果将那个电池组放入Model 3，我不指望这会在短时间内发生，但这意味着能行驶超过400英里的里程。
That brings us neatly to what's possible with the Cybertruck. Over the last six months, a lot of people were speculating that the Cybertruck wouldn't use the 4680 because the energy density of the Gen 1 cell was too low. I didn't share that view because I saw all the potential areas where Tesla could improve the total pack energy and energy density from the Gen 1 4680 cells and the structural pack that went into the Model Y.
这很好地引出了Cybertruck的可能性。在过去的六个月中，很多人都猜测Cybertruck不会使用4680电池，因为第一代电池的能量密度太低。我不认同这个观点，因为我看到了特斯拉可以通过改进总装能量和能量密度的潜在领域，以及用于Model Y的结构性装配。
If Tesla can hit 183 watt hours per kilogram with the 4680 and structural pack, it would be on par with the battery pack that's in the Plaid Model S. As Elon said a year ago, they could have made a 600 mile range Model S two years ago if they wanted to. The reason they didn't is because it would have made acceleration, handling and efficiency worse, but the Cybertruck is a different product with different priorities like pewing range.
如果特斯拉能够利用4680结构型电池包达到每公斤的183瓦时水平，那将与Plaid Model S中的电池组相媲美。正如埃隆一年前所说，如果他们愿意，两年前他们就可以制造出一款续航600英里的Model S。之所以没有这样做是因为这会导致加速、操控和效率变差，但Cybertruck是一个具有不同优先级（如超长续航）的不同产品。
So the Gen 2 cell or Cybertruck means there's no reason why the Cybertruck couldn't hit 500 miles of range. I'm not saying that the Cybertruck will come with a 500 mile range version, but rather it's possible. So whether Tesla actually offers a 500 mile range version is really a product and cell supply decision.
所以，Gen 2电池或Cybertruck意味着没有理由Cybertruck不能达到500英里的续航里程。我并不是说Cybertruck将会推出一个500英里续航版本，而是可能存在这个可能性。所以，无论特斯拉是否真的提供一个500英里续航版本，这实际上是一个产品和电池供应的决定。
As a final note, Drew said it's important to remember that rather than energy density, the focus of battery day and the 4680 production system was factory density, capital cost and utility cost reductions, and they're starting to realize those benefits in Texas as they scale up. That is, energy density aside, it's always worth remembering that the whole point of the 4680 is to improve the speed of scaling, improve cell availability and reduce costs over time. Increased energy density and larger battery packs are a secondary priority.
最后，德鲁表示重要的是要记住，电池日和4680生产系统的焦点不是能量密度，而是工厂密度、资本成本和公用事业成本的降低。随着他们的规模扩大，他们正在开始意识到这些好处在德克萨斯得到实现。也就是说，除了能量密度之外，值得铭记的是4680的整个目的是提高规模化的速度，提高电池的可用性并随着时间推移降低成本。增加能量密度和更大的电池组是次要的优先事项。
While we're on the topic of energy density, for those curious, when Tesla adds silicon to the 4680 battery cell and as they continue to make improvements to the manufacturing process and cell design, energy density could approach 300 watt hours per kilogram around mid decade in the next two to three years. As I've said before, they'll likely start with small amounts of silicon and increase as they gain confidence. So it's unlikely we'll see a 4680 battery cell with much greater than 300 watt hours per kilogram of energy density before 2026.
在谈论能量密度的话题时，对于那些好奇的人来说，当特斯拉在4680电池单体中添加硅，并继续改进制造工艺和电池设计时，能量密度在未来两到三年内可能接近每公斤300瓦时。就像我之前说过的那样，他们可能会从少量的硅开始，并在获得信心后逐渐增加。因此，在2026年之前，我们不太可能看到能量密度大于每公斤300瓦时的4680电池单体。
In summary, although Tesla's become a profitable company in the past few years, it still may be early days in terms of growth potential, with several startups within the company that could rival their vehicle business or at the very least give them massive market leverage and or scaling advantages for the products and services that aren't sold to third parties.
总的来说，尽管特斯拉在过去几年中变得盈利，但在增长潜力方面，现在可能还处于早期阶段。公司内有几家初创企业，它们可能与特斯拉的汽车业务相媲美，或者至少为公司未向第三方出售的产品和服务提供巨大市场优势和规模优势。
Beyond that, in the Q2 2023 earnings call, it also appears that we finally got confirmation that Tesla has a full scale 4680 production line hitting decent production volumes using a dry battery electrode process. If they can continue to ramp that line at the rate they have been, they would hit the 4680 production line's capacity of 20 to 25 gigawatt hours per year sometime mid next year. Note that's not a prediction or forecast, but rather just a projection based on past improvements.
此外，在2023年第二季度的盈利电话会议中，我们终于得到确认，特斯拉已经拥有一条全面铺开的4680生产线，使用干法电极处理工艺，生产规模相当可观。如果他们能保持此产线的快速推进速度，预计明年年中时他们将达到4680生产线的产能，达到20至25千兆瓦时每年。需要注意的是，这并不是一个预测或预测，而只是基于过去改进的投影。
Given the challenges of the last few years, I'm not holding my breath and a lot of challenges remain, but we may finally be climbing out of the trough of disillusionment with the 4680 production system.
考虑到过去几年的挑战，我并不抱太大期望，而且还有很多挑战依然存在，但我们可能终于在克服幻灭低谷方面有所进展，这要归功于4680生产系统。
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