The Disappointing Truth About The Tesla Cybertruck..

The Tesla Cyber Truck is the most overhyped vehicle release in the history of the automobile. And I say that as a person with absolutely zero authority on automotive history, but I do make a lot of YouTube videos about the Cyber Truck and a shockingly large number of people tune in to watch them, so we've clearly hit on a main nerve in the 21st centuries I guised.

特斯拉Cyber Truck是汽车历史上最被炒作的车型之一。尽管我并不是汽车历史专家，但我制作了许多关于Cyber Truck的YouTube视频，惊人的是有许多人观看了这些视频，显示出Cyber Truck已经成为21世纪中的一大热点话题。

This is a product that evokes an emotional response in every person who sees it. The Stark brutalist design confronts you head on and forces each individual to choose their path. Take the Red Pill and this is the greatest truck ever conceived in the history of trucks. This is engineering genius, this will dominate the industry because it is simply better and no intelligent person could possibly disagree. Take the Blue Pill and this is the ugliest, most dangerous impractical fake truck ever conceived in the history of trucks. This will never actually exist and the longer we wait, the more entrenched the two sides become.

这是一款产品，能引起每个看到它的人情感上的回应。它的奥斯兰式的设计直面你，迫使每个个体做出选择。如果选择红药丸，这将是有史以来最伟大的卡车，是工程方面的天才，会统治整个行业，因为它更好，没有明智的人会反对。如果选择蓝药丸，这将是有史以来最丑陋、最危险、最不实用的虚假卡车。它其实是不存在的，而随着时间的推移，这两个观点会越来越深入人心。

This only pushes the Cyber Truck higher and higher on its pedestal, becoming this shining stainless steel monolith that towers above us all. So could the Cyber Truck possibly be good enough to satisfy the red team and their unwavering faith? Could it ever fail so bad as to justify the blues? The journey to an answer is ripe with learning experiences. So let's get going.

这只会让Cyber Truck在它的基座上越来越高，变成一座闪耀的不锈钢巨像，超越我们所有人。那么Cyber Truck是否可能足够好，以满足红队和他们不动摇的信仰？它能否失败得如此惨烈，以证明蓝队的正确性？寻找答案的旅程充满了学习经验。所以让我们开始吧。

Now, just to clarify, when I say that the Cyber Truck is overhyped, I'm not saying that it won't be good. If you look at the channel, we've been diligently following and reporting on every single minute detail about the Cyber Truck that's been released, leaked or even hinted at. And we have yet to see any real cause for concern to date. Everything appears to be going according to plan, or at least according to the most recent version of the plan.

现在，为了澄清一下，当我说Cyber Truck被过度推崇时，我并不是说它不会好。如果你看一下我们的频道，我们一直在努力关注和报告关于已发布、泄露或者甚至只是暗示的Cyber Truck的每一个细节。到目前为止，我们还没有看到任何真正的问题。一切似乎都按照计划进行，或者至少按照最近版本的计划进行。

Here's where things start to get tricky. The Cyber Truck was, quote, unquote, launched a very long time ago and it doesn't just feel like a long time ago because of the whole collapse of Western society thing that actually happened like three and a half years ago and a lot has changed since then. And this is yet another fallout from a pretty major problem that Tesla created for themselves in the last decade, unveiling a brand new product and then just not delivering it.

事情开始变得棘手起来。Cyber Truck被引用为“很久以前”推出，这不仅仅是因为三年半前西方社会的崩溃，许多事情自那时以来已经发生了改变。这是特斯拉在过去十年中为自己创造的一个相当大的问题的又一个后果。他们推出了全新的产品，然后就没有交付。

This is kind of unprecedented in the tech industry. Imagine if Steve Jobs had come out on stage with the first iPhone and been like, this is the most amazing telephone ever design, this will change the world, we'll be releasing it in a couple years and then two years changes to three years. Still no iPhone. And then we're in year four and meanwhile, all of the other Samsung and Sony phones have come out and they're pretty good. But we're still waiting for this amazing iPhone that's going to be even better than everything. And we love Apple, but just release the damn phone.

这在科技行业中可以说是前所未有的。想象一下，如果史蒂夫·乔布斯在推出第一款iPhone时说：“这是有史以来设计得最棒的电话，它将改变世界，我们将在几年内发布它。”然后两年变成三年，还是没有iPhone问世。然后我们进入第四年，与此同时，所有其他的三星和索尼手机已经面世了，它们也非常不错。但我们仍在等待着这款令人惊叹的iPhone，它将比所有其他手机都更好。我们喜欢苹果，但请发布这款该死的手机吧！

It's kind of where I'm at with the Cybertruck and I know that a growing cohort of viewers are as well. Just release the damn truck already. There's only so much anticipation we can handle around here. And this is why I believe that we have reached a point in the technology life cycle known as the peak of inflated expectations. This is taken from something called the Gartner hype cycle and it basically maps out the journey that every new product will take on its journey from inception to mainstream adoption.

我对Cybertruck的感觉就像是很多观众也有的一样，我们只希望这辆卡车赶快发布。在这里，我们能够承受的期待只有那么多。这就是我认为我们已经到达了技术生命周期的一个点，被称为过度期望的高峰。这来自于一个叫做Gartner炒作周期的东西，它基本上勾勒出了每个新产品从创意到主流采用所要经历的旅程。

I like stuff like this because it reminds us that as human beings with our unrivaled intelligence and creativity, we are entirely predictable animals. Humans will study our own history, we'll make it a mandatory class in school and yet we are doomed to repeat the same course of action over and over and over again. It's deeply fascinating. Anyway, the first phase in this hype cycle is called the innovation trigger. This is when the Cybertruck first rolled out on the stage in November 2019 and there was fire shooting up from the floor and techno music blasting and Elon Musk hopped out wearing his badass leather jacket. It was insane.

我喜欢这样的东西，因为它提醒我们作为人类，凭借我们无与伦比的智慧和创造力，我们是非常可预测的动物。人类会研究自己的历史，将其作为学校的必修课，但我们注定要一次又一次地重复相同的行动轨迹。这非常有趣。无论如何，这种炒作周期的第一阶段被称为创新触发器。这是指Cybertruck在2019年11月首次亮相舞台，地板上喷出火焰，音乐震撼人心，埃隆·马斯克穿着他的超酷皮夹克跳出来的时候。那非常疯狂。

Following that trigger, there will be a massive vertical increase in the hype surrounding the new product. People love it, people hate it, everyone is talking about it and this rise continues on until we reach the peak of inflated expectations. The longer the time between those two points, the higher the peak will rise until there is a catalyst to push the product over the edge to the other side. Typically the peak comes with the release of the product when the rubber meets the road, but a product can also go past its peak without even being released at all.

随着引爆点的到来，这个新产品将会引起巨大的热潮。有人喜欢它，有人讨厌它，每个人都在谈论它，这种热潮持续到达充满期望的高峰。在这两个点之间的时间越长，高峰将会更高，直到有一个触媒将产品推向另一边。通常高峰出现在产品发布时，在实践中才能看到效果，但是一个产品即使没有发布也可能超过其高峰。

You can't just sustain infinite hype without delivering a payoff. At some point, even the most dedicated followers will just lose interest and move on to something else. Elon Musk has worked diligently over the years to maintain the rise in hype around the cyber truck, you've got to give the guy credit for that.

你不能仅依靠炒作来持续热度，而不提供回报。在某个阶段，即使是最忠实的追随者也会失去兴趣，转而去尝试其他事情。埃隆·马斯克多年来一直很努力地维持了对于Cyber Truck炒作的热度，这点必须承认他是个有功绩的人。

He's been dropping hints about all kinds of new features Tesla has developed that weren't included in the original release and telling everyone that it will be the greatest product Tesla has ever made. He's always very sure to remind us that production is coming soon. This year guys, we said that last year but for real this year, we're closer to the future now than we were in the past that is undeniable.

他一直在透露特斯拉开发了各种新功能的暗示，这些功能在原版发布时未被包括，并告诉所有人，这将是特斯拉制造的最伟大的产品。他总是非常确定地提醒我们生产即将到来。今年，伙计们，我们去年说过，但今年真的很接近未来，这是不可否认的。

So make no mistake, the peak is coming soon. Either they release the damn truck or people will just lose interest no matter what side of the fence they are on, which would be pretty bad for business here at the Tesla space. We're hoping for a successful product launch, but either way this goes beyond the peak of inflated expectations lies the trough of disillusionment.

不要误解，高峰即将到来。 无论人们持何种立场，如果他们不发布该该鬼东西，人们就会失去兴趣，这对特斯拉空间的业务来说非常糟糕。 我们希望产品成功推出，但不管怎样，在虚高预期的顶点之后，就会出现失望的谷底。

I think the name speaks for itself, but is every product really doomed to plummet into a trough and lose favor? Maybe the cyber truck just deliver on every expectation and be all things to all people? Probably not. And here are a few reasons why.

我认为名字已经说明了一切，但是每个产品是否注定要陷入低谷并失去人气？也许Cyber Truck可以满足每个人的期望并成为万能的吗？可能不会。下面是几个原因。 简而言之，这段话讲述了Cyber Truck是否可以成为所有人都喜爱的产品和原因。

Thing number one, price. The price list and option packages for the cyber truck on launch day were pretty damn sweet. Get a single motor base model for 50 grand. It seemed too good to be true at the time and it was. That thing ain't coming.

第一件事，价格。在发布日，超级卡车的价格清单和选项包都非常棒。你可以以5万美元购买单电机基本款。当时这似乎太美好而不可信，事实也是如此。那个车型不会出现了。

But even if you put your $100 down for the top tier options package, does anyone still think they are actually getting that for $69,000? Search deep inside your heart. You know the answer. Now sure, some people will be happy to shell out the extra cash that it's going to take to get into the premiere release of the cyber truck with three motors or four motors or whatever Tesla can throw at it.

即使你为顶级选项包付出了100美元，还有人认为他们能以69000美元购买到那个吗？深入你的内心搜寻，你知道答案。当然，有些人会乐意花更多的钱来购买拥有三个电机或四个电机的首发版，或者是任何特斯拉可以应付的事情。

For some, money is no object and they get what they want. For the rest of us, there might be a touch of disillusionment when we are hit by the reality of buying a high-end electric pickup truck in today's economy. The numbers that we saw when we put that deposit down are not going to be the numbers on the screen when it comes time to deal the deal.

对某些人来说，钱不是问题，他们得到想要的东西。然而对于我们中的其他人，在当今经济条件下购买高端电动皮卡时，可能会遇到一些失望。当我们付了定金后看到的数字，到真正交易的时候，可能会有所不同。

And we already saw this play out with Rivian when they tried to increase the price of the R1T prior to first deliveries going out. The customer disillusionment hit the company like a ton of bricks and even forced them to reverse course in a very public humiliation.

当Rivian试图在首批交付之前提高R1T的价格时，我们已经看到了这个情况的发生。客户的失望感像一块大石头一样打击了该公司，甚至迫使他们在公开场合中扭转了局面，受到了很大的羞辱。

Thing number two is availability. Sure, cyber truck is going into its first production this year. I do believe that and maybe a few VIP customers get their deliveries in 2023. But what is the time frame looking like for getting trucks into driveways and clearing that massive backlog of pre-orders?

第二件事是可获性。当然，赛博卡车将于今年进行首次生产。我相信这一点，也许会有一些 VIP 客户在 2023 年收到交付。但是，将卡车送到车道上并清除那些大量的预订单的时间表是什么样子的呢？

We all know about the infamous 1 million plus cyber truck pre-orders though it's unlikely that these are going to convert into 1 million purchases, I'd say near impossible really. And just a hundred dollar refundable pre-order that would have pulled a lot of impulse buys from people who just wanted to feel a little endorphin rush.

我们都知道臭名昭著的100万多辆的网络卡车预售，尽管这些预售将转化为100万购买几乎不可能，我想说实际上几乎不可能。只是一百美元可退款的预购，吸引了许多只想感受到一点内啡肽冲动购买的人。

Those people have already taken their money back. Another segment of customers would have just moved on and bought a different truck. There have been some electric pickups released in the past year. Rivian delivered 20,000 R1 vehicles in 2022. Ford managed around 13,000 lightning pickups in the year less than 1,000 Hummer EVs actually made it into customer driveways in 2022.

这些人已经把他们的钱拿回来了。另一部分客户可能已经换了一辆不同的卡车。过去一年中已经有一些电动皮卡推出。Rivian在2022年交付了20,000辆R1车辆。福特在不到1,000辆电闪击卡车上取得了大约13,000辆的成绩，而2022年实际上只有不到1,000辆Hummer EV进入了客户的车道。

So even if every single electric truck purchaser in 2022 was already on the cyber truck list, that wouldn't put much of a dent in the order queue. I've never taken a statistics class but statistically a bunch of people would have already died waiting for their cyber trucks to arrive. So that takes a few more names off the list.

即使2022年所有购买电动卡车的人都已经在Cybertruck名单上，这也不会对订单队列造成太大影响。我从没有学过统计学，但从统计数据上来看，一些人可能已经等待着他们的Cybertruck而去世了。因此，这会将另外几个人的名字从列表中删除。

But even in the worst case scenario, Tesla is going to be struggling to get production up to a level that meets the demand and eventually get them to a point where new customers can actually come in and place an order with a clearly defined and reasonable delivery date. That just means more waiting, more frustration and ultimately more disillusionment. We expect instant gratification in the modern world and that's something that ordering a cyber truck will not provide anytime soon.

即使在最糟糕的情况下，特斯拉也将努力使生产达到满足需求的水平，并最终使新客户能够实际下订单，以确立清晰明确、合理的交货日期。这意味着需要更长时间的等待和更多的挫败感。在现代社会，我们期望即刻的满足，但订购一辆塞博卡车短期内无法提供这种体验。

Now I'm going to call thing number 3 the Elon Musk effect. Here's the thing. The cyber truck looks different and people don't like things that are different. Being an individual draws attention for better or worse. This is why the Toyota Corolla is so popular. No one will even notice that you exist when you drive this car. But not only is the cyber truck a weird looking vehicle, it's a weird looking vehicle that is inextricably linked to Elon Musk. And Elon Musk is somewhat of a controversial figure these days you may have heard. So people are naturally going to project whatever feelings they have about Elon directly onto the individual behind the wheel of Elon's product. I'd be prepared to receive a lot of unsolicited opinions from strangers. And all that just feeds into the general negativity that defines the phase of disillusionment.

现在我要把第三点称为“埃隆·马斯克效应”。事情是这样的。赛博卡车看起来与众不同，人们不喜欢与众不同的事物。成为个人会因好坏而引起注意。这就是为什么丰田卡罗拉如此受欢迎。当你开这种车时，没有人会注意到你的存在。但赛博卡车不仅外观奇怪，而且与埃隆·马斯克密不可分。而埃隆·马斯克是当今颇具争议性的人物，你可能听说过。所以人们自然会把他们对埃隆的任何观感直接投射到驾驶埃隆产品的个人身上。我要准备接收很多从陌生人那里得来的不请自来的看法。而这一切只会滋养那些充斥着失望和消沉的总体消极情绪。

But if the product is good then it will rise up from the trough. A good product doesn't actually need to meet or exceed every expectation. It doesn't have to be the best new thing in the world. It doesn't have to be all things to all people. The cyber truck will be a good product. It will be the most truck like consumer pickup truck of the 21st century, that's for sure. I mean if we were to try and define the fundamentals of what makes a truck a truck, big, rugged, powerful, durable, working machine, cargo hauler, able to go anywhere, drive over anything, farming, hunting, fishing, camping, ripping tree stumps out of the ground, cyber truck is going to ace that exam.

然而，如果产品质量优秀，它就可以从低谷中崛起。一款优秀的产品实际上不需要满足或超越所有期望。它不必成为世界上最好的新事物。它不必迎合所有人的需求。Cyber Truck是一款优秀的产品。毫无疑问，它将成为21世纪最像卡车的消费者皮卡车。我的意思是，如果我们试图定义什么是使卡车成为卡车的基本要素，例如体型大、坚固、强有力、耐用、工作机器、运输货物、能够行驶在任何地方，从事农业、狩猎、钓鱼、露营、拔树根，Cyber Truck将通过这次考试。

And with that we will climb the slope of enlightenment, which is the period in the hype cycle, where the benefits of the technology become widely understood. Imagine one year from now. Cyber truck owners are flooding TikTok and YouTube with videos of all the cool stuff that they are doing with their Tesla. Thousands of people will watch and a bunch of them will want to buy their own cyber truck. People from the other side of the argument will never even see the video because the algorithm already knows that they don't like trucks anyway and they'll find something else to be upset about.

随着这一点，我们将攀登批评周期中启蒙的阶段，在这一阶段，技术的好处变得广泛理解。现在想象一下一年后的情景，Cybertrack的拥有者们沉浸在TikTok和YouTube的视频中，展示着他们和特斯拉一起做的酷炫的事情。成千上万的人观看，其中一部分会想购买自己的Cybertruck。另一方的人可能根本不会看这些视频，因为算法已经知道他们不喜欢卡车，他们会找别的事情来生气。

And then we finally arrive on the plateau of productivity, which is mainstream adoption. The product becomes more clearly defined. The pricing and specifications solidify. The pros and cons of ownership are out there in the form of real world reviews. People move past hype and make their purchases based on satisfying their personal needs and wants. We leave all of this madness behind us.

然后，我们终于到达了生产率高原，即主流采用。产品变得更加清晰明确。定价和规格得到了加固。所有权的利弊以真实的世界评论的形式呈现出来。人们超越了炒作，根据自己的个人需求和想法进行购买。我们把所有这些疯狂的事情留在了身后。

Well, that'd be nice. But until then, stay tuned to the Tesla space for every excruciatingly minute piece of cyber truck news, rumors, and updates. Don't forget to give this video a thumbs up today if you liked it. That is so important for getting our content out to more people. If you enjoyed the content, then you'd probably also enjoy our weekly newsletter. So sign up the link down below at thetestlesspace.com.

那确实很不错。但在那之前，请继续关注特斯拉的最新消息、谣言和更新，不要错过任何一点点的资讯。如果你喜欢这个视频，请在今天给它点赞这一举动非常重要，可以让更多人看到我们的内容。如果你喜欢我们的内容，那你可能也会喜欢我们的周刊。请在下方链接测试空间网站上注册。

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非常感谢所有列在屏幕上的我们的Patreon支持者。你们帮助我们制作出最好的内容，我们真的非常感激。感谢您的收看，我们下期节目再见。