Markets Weekly July 29
发布时间 2023-07-29 19:54:05 来源
Hello, my friends. Today is July 29th. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly.
大家好，朋友们。今天是7月29日。我叫约瑟夫，这是《市场周报》。
This week was super exciting in Global Macros, so we have a lot to talk about. First, we have to go over the really positive data we saw in the US. It seems like the US is heading towards a quote unquote soft landing.
这周在全球宏观经济方面非常令人兴奋，所以我们有很多要谈的。首先，我们要讨论一下我们在美国看到的非常积极的数据。看起来美国正在朝着所谓的软着陆迈进。
Secondly, we have to talk about the sweeping new bank regulations that the FDIC published for comment this week. This would be the biggest change in bank regulations for actually since several years. And we'll talk about how they might impact the real economy and the financial markets.
其次，我们要谈谈联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）本周发布的关于全新银行监管的规定征询意见。这可能是自几年来最大的银行监管变革。我们将讨论这些规定如何可能影响实体经济和金融市场。
And lastly, let's talk about what happened in Japan, where the Bank of Japan suddenly without with only a little bit of warning, tweaked yield curve control. And I think that's going to have a big impact on financial markets in the coming weeks.
最后，让我们谈一下在日本发生的事情，也就是日本银行突然在没有太多事先预警的情况下调整了收益率曲线控制。我认为这将在未来几周对金融市场产生重大影响。
Okay, starting with the US. So this past week, we got three billion important data prints. First, of course, was the second quarter of DDP print, which surprised to the upside. Second quarter GDP printed at 2.4%. Now for context, the first quarter GDP printed at 2%. So what we're seeing is a re acceleration of the US economy.
好的，先从美国开始说起。所以在过去的一周里，我们得到了30亿份重要数据打印资料。首先，当然是第二季度GDP数据，这一数据给人们带来惊喜。第二季度GDP增长率为2.4%。现在，为了更好的理解，第一季度的GDP增长率为2%。所以我们可以看到美国经济正在重新加速增长。
Now recall, just a few months ago, there had been many, many, many people in the markets calling for an imminent US recession, buying bond and so forth. And that view was not just wrong, but ridiculously so.
现在回想一下，就在几个月前，市场上有很多人预测即将出现美国的衰退，购买债券等等。但这种观点不仅是错误的，而且是荒谬的。
In fact, if you look at forecast for third quarter GDP, such as the Atlanta Fit Now GDP Atlanta GDP. Now you'll see that third quarter GDP, which is going to be revised as data comes in. And it's a very noisy number is at the moment looking at 3%. And for further context, US trend, so potential GDP growth is estimated to be about 1.8%.
实际上，如果你看看第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）的预测，比如亚特兰大Fit Now GDP和亚特兰大GDP等指标，你会发现第三季度的GDP将会在数据逐渐完善时进行修正。目前的预测数字非常不稳定，大约为3%。为了更好地了解背景情况，美国潜在GDP增长趋势估计约为1.8%。
So the US economy appears to be re accelerating and growing comfortably above trend. Now, when the markets saw these positive numbers, they were actually not that happy, because when you have strong GDP growth, when the Fed is trying to slow the economy down, that means that the Fed is probably going to have to hike rates more or at the very least keep rates higher for longer. And that's not positive for financial markets.
所以，美国经济似乎正在重新加速，增长速度远远超过趋势水平。然而，当市场看到这些积极的数据时，并不那么高兴，因为在经济增长强劲时，当美联储试图放缓经济时，这意味着美联储可能不得不进一步加息，或者至少保持更高的利率更长时间。而这对金融市场并不是好消息。
But we also had another two important data prints. The first was, of course, the Fed's favorite inflation measure PCE inflation, which printed lower than expected and confirmed the very soft June CPI print. And also we had the employment cost index, which is the Fed's favorite measure of wage costs, and the ECI printed softer than expected, and confirmed the trend of wages moderating.
但我们还有另外两个重要的数据印证。首先是，当然，美联储最喜欢的通胀衡量指标PCE通胀率，低于预期，并确认了6月CPI非常低迷的情况。同时我们还有就业成本指数，这是美联储最喜欢的工资成本衡量指标，而ECI低于预期，印证了工资增速趋缓的趋势。
So these last two prints, the PCE inflation and the ECI are to suggest that inflation is moderating. And markets really, really like these two prints because if inflation is moderating, that means the Fed doesn't have to hike rates as much and maybe cutting rates in the coming months. So if you put the two together stronger economic growth and softer inflation, that's soft landing right there. That is the sweet spot for the US economy.
所以这最近发布的两个指标，即核心消费者物价指数（PCE）通胀率和就业成本指数（ECI）表明通胀正在趋缓。市场非常非常喜欢这两个指标，因为如果通胀在趋缓，那意味着美联储不需要进一步提高利率，甚至可能在未来几个月降息。所以，如果我们将经济增长加强和通胀放缓这两个因素结合起来，就形成了一个软着陆的局面。这对于美国经济来说是一个理想的状态。
Now, that's just a snapshot of the data today. Be mindful that that could change as we've been discussing going forward. There is some potential for inflation to re accelerate. After all, we have a structural labor shortage. And if GDP continues to grow so strongly, we're going to have to hire more people again. And that's going to lead wages to re accelerate. And of course, if you look at commodity prices, price of oil, for example, seems to have bottomed and is turning higher. So going forward, we can again see inflation re accelerate later on in the year. But so far, this is really good data. And so honestly, if things continue this way, we could have really have the Fed not hike anymore and cut rates later on in next year. But a lot of things can change.
现在，这只是今天数据的一个快照。请注意，随着我们继续讨论，情况可能会发生变化。有一些通胀重新加速的潜力。毕竟，我们面临结构性劳动力短缺问题。如果国内生产总值继续强劲增长，我们将不得不再次雇佣更多人。这将导致工资再次上涨。当然，如果你看看商品价格，比如石油价格，似乎已经触底并且开始上涨。因此从长远来看，我们可能会在今年晚些时候看到通胀再次加速。但到目前为止，这些数据真的很好。所以老实说，如果情况继续这样发展，联储局可能根本不需要再加息，甚至在明年晚些时候可能会降息。但很多事情都可能发生改变。
Okay, let's talk about the second thing now. The second thing is that the FDIC released for comments, a whole bunch of new bank regulations. Now, these regulations are about if you look at the proposal, it's about 1000 pages in length. So we're not going to go over everything there. I'll just briefly highlight some of the most important aspects of it.
好的，现在让我们谈谈第二件事情。第二件事情是美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）发布了一系列新的银行监管措施供大家评论。这些监管措施大约有1000页，所以我们不会去逐一讨论。我只会简要介绍其中一些最重要的方面。
First, these regulations are what the authorities are calling the Baso three end game. So Baso three was a suite of regulations that was launched after the great financial crisis. These regulations fundamentally changed how banks are regulated and thus how they could behave. But the full force of Baso three really apply to only the mega banks in the US. So let's do your JP Morgan, your bank of America's and so forth.
首先，这些法规是当局所称的巴塞尔三结束游戏。因此，巴塞尔三是在大规模金融危机后推出的一套法规。这些法规从根本上改变了银行的监管方式，因此也改变了它们的行为方式。但巴塞尔三的全部力量实际上只适用于美国的大型银行，比如摩根大通、美国银行等等。
The first thing that these new regulations do is that they expand the scope of Baso three to apply to a wider set of banks, specifically banks that have assets $100 billion or more. Now, these smaller banks, of course, they're not going to have the absolute full extent of Baso three, but they're going to have more of it apply to them. These are your regional banks.
这些新规定首先的作用是将巴塞尔三的范围扩大，适用于更广泛的银行群体，特别是那些拥有1000亿美元或更多资产的银行。当然，这些规模较小的银行不会完全应用巴塞尔三的全部要求，但会有更多要求适用于它们身上。这些银行一般是地区性银行。
And that's the one thing. And the second thing is that these new regulations are going to mandate banks a whole more capital. Now, the biggest banks are going to have to hold markedly more capital. And these regional banks, they're going to have to hold a little bit more capital. So just for context, capital four bank is basically loss-absorbing capacity.
这就是其中一个问题。第二个问题是，这些新规定将会要求银行持有更多的资本。现在，最大的银行将不得不持有明显更多的资本，而这些地方银行将不得不持有一些更多的资本。因此，仅供参考，银行资本实际上是吸收损失的能力。
It's a liability of a bank. So for example, if I start a bank, I'm going to have to put down some equity in the bank, right? Well, equity from my perspective is capital from a bank's perspective. So if the bank that I start makes a loss, then what happens is that the owners of that bank eat that loss. So the banks capital holders, so the bank losses will come out of the banks capital, which from my perspective is that as an equity holder means me.
这是银行的负债。例如，如果我开办一家银行，我将不得不注入一些资本金，对吧？从我的角度来看，股本就是银行的资本金。所以，如果我创办的银行出现亏损，那么发生的情况就是该银行的所有者承担这些亏损。因此，银行的资本持有者，也就是银行亏损会从银行的资本金中扣除，而从我个人作为股权持有者的角度来看，这意味着我也要承担部分亏损。
So the more capital a bank has, the more the more loss-absorbing capacity of bank has. And so the bank becomes stronger, more stable, more resilient from solvency problems. And I think the third highlight that the bank regulations did is basically in reaction to Silicon Valley bank. The new regulations mandate a wider swath of banks take into account unrealized losses on their available for sale securities portfolios when calculating capital.
因此，银行拥有的资本越多，其吸收亏损的能力就越强。因此，银行变得更加强大、更加稳定，更具应对偿付能力问题的韧性。我认为银行监管的第三个亮点基本上是对硅谷银行的回应。新的监管规定要求更多的银行在计算资本时考虑其可供出售证券组合的未实现损失。
So before the regulations, only the mega banks say the Bank of America's had to take into account unrealized losses on their available for sale securities when they calculate capital. The other banks, they did not have to take that into account. Now the regulators looked at what happened at Silicon Valley bank who had large unrealized losses on some of their securities and thought that well, maybe, maybe if they had to take those unrealized losses into account when they were calculating their capital, they would have more capital and thus their depositors would have felt more secure and there would have been less of a chance of a run.
在出台监管规定之前，只有像美国银行这样的大型银行在计算资本时需要考虑其可供出售证券的未实现损失。其他银行不必考虑这一点。现在监管机构审视了硅谷银行在部分证券上的巨额未实现损失，并认为，如果在计算他们的资本时必须考虑这些未实现损失，他们将拥有更多的资本，这样存款人就会感到更安全，发生银行挤兑的可能性会降低。
So all in all, I think the one takeaway is that more banks are going to have to hold more capital. Of course, when you have to take into account unrealized losses on your securities portfolios and calculating capital, you're going to have to hold more capital. Now, what does that mean for the economy and for the markets? And I may have a post that talks about this more in detail later on, but broadly speaking, there's a trade-off for mandating a bank to hold more capital.
总之，我认为一个重要的观点是，更多的银行将不得不持有更多的资本。当然，在计算资本时，考虑到证券投资组合的未实现损失，银行需要持有更多的资本。那么，这对经济和市场意味着什么呢？或许我以后会有一篇更详细探讨这个问题的文章，但总体而言，强制银行持有更多资本是存在一个取舍的。
On the one hand, if banks have more capital, banking system resilient, less likely for there to be runs, less likely for there to be a crises in the banking sector. On the other hand, increasing capital basically increases the costs of a for a bank. Now, when the bank goes and raises capital, well, the people who put up capital demand high returns on their capital because it's a risky thing. You're basically putting capital to bank and that capital is at risk.
一方面，如果银行拥有更多资本，银行系统会更具弹性，抵御可能的挤兑和金融危机的可能性会降低。另一方面，增加资本基本上会增加银行的成本。当银行筹集资本时，投资者要求其投资回报高，因为这是一项有风险的事情。实质上，您将资本投入银行，而这份资本将面临风险。
So if a bank has to hold more capital, they're going to have to pass on those costs to their other businesses. So for example, the next time a bank makes a loan, they're going to have to take into account their higher capital costs. And maybe they're going to have to demand higher interest rates in order to pass that cost down. So the downside, of course, is that everyone who gets a loan from a bank, maybe they're going to have to pay a little bit more.
如果一家银行必须持有更多的资本，他们就会不得不将这些成本转嫁给其他业务。比如说，下次银行放贷时，他们就必须考虑到更高的资本成本。也许他们还得要求更高的利率来转嫁这个成本。所以，当然，不利的一面就是，从银行贷款的每个人，也许都需要支付更多一点的费用。
Now, the regulations suggest, now they do their own studies, but they're regulators. So of course, they're going to say this, they're going to say this is just thing that it's not going to be a big deal and maybe they're right. But I would look at this more broadly from another perspective. That is to say that if you are someone who's dependent upon bank financing, let's say a small business or medium size business or an individual, you're going to have to pay slightly higher interest rates. But it's not going to have a big impact on the mega corporations, the Googles and the apples of the world, because those guys, they don't borrow from banks, they can go and borrow from the capital markets.
现在，规定建议说，现在他们自己进行研究，但他们是监管者。所以当然，他们会说这个，他们会说这只是一件不太重要的事情，也许他们是对的。但从另一个角度来看，我会更广泛地看待这个问题。也就是说，如果您是一个依赖银行融资的人，比如一个小型企业、中型企业或个人，您将不得不支付稍高的利率。但对于大型企业，如谷歌和苹果这样的企业，影响并不大，因为这些公司不从银行借款，他们可以从资本市场借款。
Apple can go and just issue a bond and someone would buy it and then to Apple at very low interest rates. So in a sense, it makes the playing field these regulations make the playing field a bit more uneven as those dependent upon bank financing will have to pay more and those that are not dependent will have a further financing advantage. The second big really counting point that I'd make is that whereas this is not good for banks because their costs go up, it's good for competitors of banks.
苹果可以发行一张债券，有人会买下并以非常低的利率提供给苹果。因此，在某种程度上，这使得依赖银行融资的企业更加困难，因为它们必须支付更高的利息，而不依赖银行融资的企业则具有更高的融资优势。第二个重要的观点是，尽管这对银行来说并不是好事，因为它们的成本会增加，但对银行的竞争对手来说却是好事。
So you can think of them as private credit funds, private equity funds or BDCs, for example, which are also private lenders. And you can think that, well, if banks are maybe going to have higher costs, well, these other less-regulated shadow banks, they're going to move in and try to take business from the banks and they've been doing that for the past several years. So it will be good for them.
因此，你可以把它们看作是私人信贷基金、私募股权基金或者商业发展公司（BDCs），它们也是私人借贷者。你可以认为，如果银行可能会面临更高的成本，那么这些其他较少受监管的影子银行将会进入并试图夺取银行的业务，而他们在过去几年一直在这样做。所以对他们来说是有利的。
Now, when it comes to the markets, one thing that I will note is that there is some special new things in this requirement that make it more expensive for banks to participate in the capital markets. So if you have a trading business, you're going to have to hold more capital against that. And that means that banks might be less willing to make markets. If you sell a treasury, for example, you sell it to someone who is affiliated with a bank usually and that person then will hold that treasury and then sell it to someone else. Now, the more costly it is for banks to make markets, the less liquidity there is in markets. And so you can have easily more volatile price action and more possibility of, I guess, financial disturbances.
对于市场方面，需要注意的一点是，在这个要求中有一些特殊的新要素，使得银行参与资本市场更加昂贵。因此，如果你经营交易业务，你将不得不对此持有更多的资本。这意味着银行可能不太愿意做市。例如，如果你卖出一张国库券，通常是卖给与银行有关系的人，那个人然后会持有那张国库券，然后再卖给别人。现在，银行做市的成本越高，市场流动性就越低。因此，价格行为可能更容易产生波动，并且更容易出现金融紊乱的可能性更大。
Now, the difference is, of course, that the banks themselves are protected, but the markets that they serve less. So we saw this happen in March 2020, when the banking system as a whole was totally okay, but let's say the treasury market crashed. So you could have more of that going forward from these regs.
现在，问题的区别当然是，银行自身得到了保护，但它们所服务的市场却少了保护。所以我们在2020年3月曾经看到这种情况发生，当时整个银行系统完全正常，但国债市场却崩溃了。因此，未来可能会有更多类似的情况出现，这要归因于这些监管规定。
Okay, the last thing we'll talk about is the change in yield curve control from the Bank of Japan. Now, or favorite central bank governor, Governor Ueda, has over the past few months repeatedly suggested that, you know, I don't know about tweaking yield curve control, maybe, maybe, and the market has been speculating for some time that the governor at the Bank of Japan will have to tweak yield curve control.
好的，我们要讨论的最后一件事是日本银行的收益率曲线控制政策的变化。现在，我们喜欢的中央银行行长上田先生在过去几个月多次表示，你知道的，也许我不知道是否需要调整收益率曲线控制，市场一直在猜测日本银行的行长将不得不进行调整。
The market has been speculating on this for very good reason. First, inflation in Japan has been above their target. Japan, like everyone else in the world, has been suffering from high inflation. Secondly, unlike other central banks, the Bank of Japan hasn't raised interest rates. So the Fed, the ECB has been raising rates aggressively, but the Bank of Japan has been doing nothing. So everyone has been speculating that the Bank of Japan would eventually have to do something.
市场对此进行了猜测，原因是充分的。首先，日本的通胀率已经超过了他们的目标。日本和世界其他地方一样，一直受到高通胀的困扰。其次，与其他央行不同，日本的日本银行没有提高利率。因此，美联储和欧洲央行一直在积极提高利率，但日本银行一直未采取任何行动。因此，大家都猜测日本银行最终会采取行动。
And out of the blue, right before their meeting this past week, the Bank of Japan leaked to the press saying, guys, we might be talking about tweaking yield curve control. Now, it sounds really benign, but in central bank speak, this is basically saying, guys, we're going to tweak yield curve control, prepare accordingly, don't blow up. And just as they suggested in the leak, they did tweak yield curve control. The way that this tweak was implemented was that the Bank of Japan was telling everyone they're keeping their range for the 10-year yield at 0% plus or minus 50 basis points. The difference being is that they're only going to intervene if the 10-year yield goes above 1%. Now, that is to say that if the 10-year JGB yield went to, let's say, 0.6%, in the past, the Bank of Japan would come in and buy a whole bunch of JGBs to try to get the yield back within 50 basis points.
在上周的会议前，日本银行突然向媒体透露，称他们可能会讨论对收益率曲线控制进行微调。听起来很无害，但在央行的说法中，这基本上是在说“伙计们，我们要对收益率曲线控制进行微调了，做好准备，别出乱子”。正如他们在泄露中建议的那样，他们确实对收益率曲线控制进行了微调。这个微调的实施方式是，日本银行告诉所有人他们将保持10年期国债收益率在0%加减50个基点的范围内。不同之处在于，只有当10年期收益率超过1%时，他们才会进行干预。也就是说，如果日本国债收益率达到0.6%左右，过去日本银行会购买大量的国债，以试图将收益率调整在50个基点范围内。
But this new policy tweak is saying that they won't come in and buy bonds if the JGB yields 10-year JGB goes to 0.6%, but they'll come in if it goes, let's say, 1.1% when it's above 1%. So in a sense, it's basically expanding their yield curve control framework.
但是这个新的政策调整意味着，如果日本国债收益率的10年期国债达到0.6%，他们不会去买入债券，但如果达到1.1%，当超过1%时，他们会去买入。因此，在某种意义上，这基本上是扩大了他们对收益率曲线的控制框架。
Now, the market reaction to this, I thought, was pretty interesting. At the leak, of course, we immediately saw the 10-year churchy yields move higher. So globally speaking, global bond markets are interconnected. So, when you have the Bank of Japan, essentially letting their longer-dated interest rates move higher, that's going to put upward pressure on global bond markets. And I'm going to write more about this in detail in my blog post this week. So that reaction was exactly as expected.
现在，我觉得市场对此的反应非常有趣。当消息泄露时，我们立即看到了10年期国债收益率上升。所以从全球来说，全球债券市场是相互关联的。因此，当日本银行实际上让他们较长期的利率上升时，这将给全球债券市场带来上行压力。我将在本周的博文中详细写更多关于这个问题。所以这种反应完全符合预期。
The second thing you would expect is for the yen to strengthen. Obviously, the Bank of Japan essentially increased interest rates. All of the income you'd expect their currency to appreciate. But when the announcement finally came out, the reaction was surprising to me in the sense that the yen actually weakened. And the developed market bond markets actually didn't do that much. One interpretation of this could be that the market has been anticipating this for some time. And obviously, it has. So it was in a sense already priced in. You can see that the yen has been strengthening against the dollar for the past few months, at least off its weakness earlier in the year. And so maybe people were just pressing this in and fading the news.
你会预料到的第二件事是日元将会走强。显然，日本银行基本上提高了利率。你预计他们的货币会升值。但当公告最终出来时，令我感到惊讶的是，日元实际上出现了贬值。而且，发达市场债券市场的表现也并不显著。对此可以有一种解释，市场已经预期了一段时间。显然，市场已经预期了这一点。所以，从某种意义上说，这已经在定价中考虑到了。你可以看到，至少今年早些时候的日元一直在对美元走强。所以也许人们只是在押注这一点，并且对这一消息褪色。
Alternatively, this could be something that is simply just going to take longer to play out. So right now, the notable thing, of course, was that 10-year Japanese yields immediately went above 0.5%. And so testing the new yield curve control boundaries and indeed the Bank of Japan didn't seem to do anything. So now they're comfortably above 0.5%.
另一方面，这也可能是一件需要更长时间才能发展的事情。因此，目前最值得注意的事情当然是10年期日本收益率立即超过0.5%。而且，测试新的收益率曲线控制边界，实际上日本银行似乎没有采取任何行动。所以现在它们舒适地超过0.5%。
But going forward, though, the next time we have about of higher yields, so the next time global bonds sell off, that means that they have more room to rise. The Japanese 10-year yield is going to be able to rise up to 1%. And that means that Japanese investors are going to be able to enjoy higher yields. And there's less of an inclination for them to instead move their money abroad and say, by treasuries or some kind of European government bond. Al-Thin-Ziko, that's going to mean there's going to be less downward pressure on treasuries and on another fixed-income assets in the US and in the developed markets, basically. And maybe to the emerging markets as well. I'm not sure how involved Japanese investors are there.
然而，从现在开始，下一次当我们面临较高收益时，全球债券抛售下次发生时，这意味着它们还有更大的上涨空间。日本的10年期债券收益率将能够上升至1%。这意味着日本投资者将能够享受更高的收益。因此，他们将不太倾向于将资金转移到海外，购买美国国债或某种欧洲政府债券。阿尔钦吉克表示，这将意味着对美国和其他发达市场的国债和其他固定收益资产的下行压力将减小。或许对新兴市场也是如此。不确定日本投资者在那些市场中的参与程度。
So this is an opening where that allows global yields to potentially rise more than they have in the past. Now Japanese investors could be slow in their allocations. So we'll actually see this move out, be manifest in the markets in the coming months.
所以，这是一个开放的契机，它可能使全球收益率的上涨幅度超过过去的水平。现在日本投资者可能在配置上表现较为保守。因此，我们会在接下来的几个月里看到市场反映出这种变动。
All right, so that's all I prepared. If you like what I'm producing, please remember to like and subscribe and note that if you are interested in hearing more about my market views or understanding more about the financial system, you can check out my blog at FedGuy.com and my online courses at centralbanking101.com. Thanks so much, guys. We'll talk to you next week.
好的，这就是我准备的全部内容。如果你喜欢我的作品，请记得点赞和订阅，并且如果你对我对市场的观点或者对金融体系的了解更感兴趣，你可以去我的博客FedGuy.com查看更多内容，还可以访问centralbanking101.com参加我的在线课程。非常感谢大家，下周我们再聊。