Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML 2023 second quarter financial results conference call on July 19, 2023.
大家好,感谢大家的支持。欢迎参加2023年7月19日的ASML2023财务季度报告电话会议。
At this time all participants are in the listen only mode. After the speaker's introduction, there will be a question on the session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star 1 and 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference call over to Mr. Skip Miller. Please go ahead.
我现在想把会议电话交给Skip Miller先生。请开始吧。
Thank you operator. Welcome everyone. This is Skip Miller, Vice President and Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today on the call, our ASML CEO Peter Winick and our CFO, Roger Dawson. The subject of today's call is ASML's 2023 second quarter results. The link to this call will be 60 minutes and questions will be taken in the order that they are received. The call is also being broadcast live or the internet at asml.com. The transcript of management's opening remarks and a replay of the call will be available on our website shortly following the conclusion of this call.
感谢接线员。大家好。我是ASML的副总裁兼投资者关系负责人Skip Miller。今天与我一起参加电话会议的是ASML的CEO Peter Winick和我们的CFO Roger Dawson。今天电话会议的议题是ASML2023年第二季度业绩。本次电话会议的链接将持续60分钟,并按照接收顺序回答问题。电话会议还将在asml.com网站上通过互联网进行直播。在本次电话会议结束后不久,我们的网站将提供管理层的开场发言文字记录和电话会议的重播。
Before we begin, I like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include four looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These four looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website at asml.com and in ASML's annual report on Form 20F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
With that, I would like to turn the call over to Peter Winick for a brief introduction.
有了这个,我想把电话交给彼得·温尼克进行简短介绍。
Thank you, Scab. Welcome, everyone. And thank you for joining us for our second quarter 2023 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Roger and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on the second quarter 2023 as well as provide our view on the coming quarters and Roger will start with a review of our second quarter 2023 financial performance with added comments on our short and outlook. And I will complete the introduction with some additional comments on the current business environment and on our future business outlook.
Roger. Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. I will first review the second quarter financial accomplishments and then provide guidance on the third quarter of 2023.
Let me start with our second quarter accomplishments. Net sales come in at 6.9 billion euros, which is at the high end of our guidance. We shipped 13 EV systems and recognized 2 billion euros revenue from 12 systems this quarter. Net system sales of 5.6 billion euros, which was mainly driven by logic at 84% with the remaining 16% coming from memory. The net sales value of our fast shipments not yet recognized in revenue in the first half of 2023 amounts to 1.4 billion euros. Install base management sales for the quarter came in at 1.3 billion euros as guidance. Growth margin for the quarter came in at 51.3%, which is above our guidance, primarily driven by additional DPV immersion revenue in the quarter, partly related to starting revenue recognition upon shipment for immersion systems that are fast shipped. On operating expenses, R&D expenses came in at 1 billion euros and SG&A expenses came in at 281 million euros, both basically is guided. Net income in Q2 was 1.9 billion euros representing 28.1% of net sales and resulting in an EPS of 4.93 euros. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the second quarter with cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments at a level of 6.3 billion euros. Moving to the order book, Q2 net system bookings came in at 4.5 billion euros, which is made up of 1.6 billion euros for EV bookings and 2.9 billion euros for non-EV bookings. These values also include inflation corrections. Net system bookings in the quarter were driven by logic with 69% of the bookings while memory accounted for the remaining 31%. At the end of Q2, we have around 38 billion euros in our backlog.
With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for the third quarter of 2023. We expect Q3 net sales to be between 6.5 billion euros and 7 billion euros. We expect our Q3 install-based management sales to be around 1.4 billion euros. The lowest margin for Q3 is expected to be around 50% a little below less quarter due to DPV mix. The expected R&D expenses for Q3 are around 1 billion euros and FGNA is expected to be around 285 million euros. Our estimated 2023 annualized effective tax rate is expected to be between 15% and 16%.
An interim dividend of 1.45 euros per ordinary share will be made payable in August 10, 2023. In Q2, 2023, we purchased around 0.8 million shares for a total amount of around 500 million euros. As mentioned last quarter, in the current environment, we expect to see ongoing pressure on our free cash flow. As a result, we will be prudent in managing our cash loads and maintaining relatively higher levels of cash.
For that, I would like to turn it back over to Peter. Thank you, Raje.
为此,我想把话题交回给彼得。谢谢你,Raje。
As Raje has highlighted, another saltwater in a dynamic environment. Significant uncertainty remains in the market due to a number of global macro concerns around inflation, rising interest rates, recession, and the geopolitical environment, including export controls.
Although certain net market seems to be reaching the bottom of the cycle, the semiconductor industry is running at very high inventory levels, leading customers to moderate waiver output as the supply chain works to reduce and rebalance inventory levels. In order to limit waiver output, customers continue to run at lower lift or tool utilization levels. Customers remain cautious due to the uncertainty around the timing, the shape, and the slope of the recovery.
We had an increase in booking this quarter, resulting in a backlog of around 38 billion euros exiting the second quarter.
在本季度,我们的预订量增加,导致第二季度结束时积压约380亿欧元。
In our EUV business, we have seen some shifts in demand timing. The majority of the shifts are due to fabulous readiness, with some elements of uncertainty around recovery. DPV demand still exceeds supply. While we have seen delays in DPV demand from some customers, it has been compensated by strong demand for tools that mature and mid-critical nodes, particularly in China. The demand fill rate for our Chinese customers over the last two years was significantly less than 50%, so they now take the opportunity to receive and install systems in their fabs as the supply of tools becomes available.
Turning to our business, starting with DPV, we are now planning to ship more than 375 DPV systems with a mix of over 25% immersion. For immersion systems, using the fast shipment process, we have come to an agreement with customers on the reduced acceptance test procedure that allows revenue recognition on shipment. As a result, we now expect additional revenue of around 700 million euros in 2023, and this in turn reduces the amount of delayed revenue out of the year, and we now expect around 2.3 billion euros of delayed revenue from 2023 into 2024 versus around 3 billion euros of delayed revenue as previously communicated. This incremental DPV revenue increases the expected year-of-year growth of our known EUV business from around 30% as communicated last quarter to around 50%.
In EUV, due primarily to customer adjustments in timing and the demand timing related to delays in fabricliness as well as some remaining supply chain issues, we now expect to ship around 52 systems this year, translating to a year-over-year revenue growth for EUV of around 25%, versus a previously communicated expectation of around 40%.
We installed base business with the current utilization rates, market uncertainty, as well as time of recovery, customers are delaying productivity and performance upgrades on the LITO systems. Therefore, we now expect our install base business this year to be similar to last year versus a growth of around 5% as previously communicated.
In summary, based on our view today, with a higher DPV revenue offset somewhat by lower expectations on our EUV and install base business relative to last quarter, we now expect net sales growth for a year to move towards 30% versus a previously articulated expectation of over 25%. We still expect a slight improvement in gross margin compared to 2022. No change relative to what we said last quarter as the positive margin impact from increased DPV immersion revenue is expected to be offset by the diluted impact of lower upgrade revenue in 2023.
On the geopolitical front, as it relates to export control, the final Dutch regulations that were published at the end of last month are basically aligned to our expectations communicated last quarter and published on our website. Due to these export control regulations, ASML will need to apply for export license with the Dutch government for all shipments of its most advanced immersion DPV LITO system, which means the twin scan NXT 2000I and subsequent immersion systems.
As a reminder, sales of ASML's EUV tools have already been restricted and the business in China is predominantly focused on mature and mid-critical modes. The new Dutch export regulation will come into effect on September 1, 2023. There are also some reports in the media recently about additional US export controls. Of course, we will and cannot respond to speculation. However, based on our current understanding, we do not expect to change our previously communicated view. Therefore, based on everything we have been aware of as of today, we do not expect the Dutch and potential additional US measures to have a material impact on our financial output for 2023, nor on our longer-term scenarios as communicated during our InvestIDAY in November last year.
Looking towards next year, our customers across different market segments are currently more cautious due to the continued macroeconomic uncertainties. As in our few last quarter, customers were expecting a recovery in the second-level of this year, but now seems that this is moving towards 2024. Almost all the shape and slope of the recovery remains unclear.
However, based on the combination of the current firm demand and a strong backlog of around 38 billion euros, there are clearly still opportunities for growth in 2024. Given the mentioned uncertainties, it is too early to be specific about the forecast for next year. We will continue to follow the market developments and update you on our view of next year in the coming quarters.
Like the near-term uncertainty, the long-term megatrends we talked about at our InvestIDAY are broadening the application space and fueling demands for advanced and mature nodes. Secular growth drivers in semiconductor markets such as electrification and AI, along with increasing lithography intensity on future technology nodes, are driving demands for our products and services.
In summary, while the current macro environment continues to create significant uncertainty, we are working to a strong backlog and expect growth this year towards 30%. In the near-to-medium term, customers remain cautious as they moderate waiver output to help lower inventory levels in the supply chain and to look to build confidence around the timing and the slope of the recovery. ASML and supply chain partners are still actively adding and improving capacity to meet future customer demand as we remain confident in our long-term growth opportunity.
With that, we would be happy to thank your questions. Thank you, Roger and Peter. The operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session. Beforehand, I would like to ask you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get it to as many colors as possible. Now, operator, could we have your final instructions and then the first question, please.
Thank you as a reminder to ask a question, you will need to press star 1 and 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. The first question comes from the line of Chris Sankar from TD Cowan. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have two of them, Peter, I understand you don't want to give an outlook for next year. I'm not looking for revenue guidance, but if I look at from a unit standpoint or a system shipment standpoint, do you think DPUV and EUV units would grow in calendar 24 hours or calendar 23?
Well, if I would know this, then I would probably give you some outlook on 2024. But I just refer back to what we call the firm demand for my customers, which and the strong backlog. And of course, as you understand, our full 2024 year is not fully covered by P.O., so still P.O.s need to come in.
But we do have firm demand. Now that is a demand that for 2024, you cannot decouple from the outlook on 2025. And 2025 clearly shows the opening and the first ramp of some significant advanced fabs in the logic space, the two nanometer fabs, three nanometer for all three leading customers. That of course leads to the firm demand in what we currently see. And that means we see significant opportunities also, like we said, certainly for growth in 2024.
However, we also need to realize that the uncertainties as it relates to economic developments and particularly I think the slope of the recovery. I think we will very likely, as many analysts believe, but also customers say, we will probably see, let's say, the thrust of this down cycle somewhere this year. And then we see a recovery coming. But it's all about the slope of the recovery. And that's driven really by the macroeconomic uncertainty.
So the extent to which they're going to add more capacity in 2024 due to, let's say, the macroeconomic situation, that's the uncertainty. I think in 2024, there's a higher level of certainty of those fabs that will take those machines because they need to ramp in 2025. The next notes, that's pretty certain. But it's that uncertainty on the macroeconomic demand that makes us a bit more uncomfortable to give you some specific guidance on next year.
So in summary, the order book looks good, the firm demand looks good. But I'd love to see all that being translated into orders over the next couple of quarters. So this is why we also said, we're going to follow this very closely. And we're going to keep you abreast of what we're seeing and what our customers are telling us in the next one or two quarters to come.
And I know I didn't give you a specific answer, but I hope it was specific enough. Thanks for taking my question.
我知道我没有给你一个具体的答案,但我希望它足够明确。谢谢你回答我的问题。
Peter, you don't have a clear picture on 24 outlooks, but how are you adjusting your own capacity? Can you give us an update how we should think about DUV and EUV capacity into 24 and have a final look?
Yeah, that's a good question. I think there's also what we're of course internally discussing. But the capacity 2024 is really a function of what we need in 2025. And the good thing about 2025 is when we look at the number of fab openings and the Fender and the RAM profile of new fabs in 2025 across our customer base, which also includes memory. It leads us to believe that we should be very careful in reducing our capacity in 2024. Because if you do that, you won't be able to ship in 2025 given the fact that our lead times in the supply chain, you know, ranging from 12 to 15 to 18 a month.
So this means we will at this moment in time, we don't see any reason to reduce any capacity plans for 2024 because that's basically driven by our views on the 2025 timeframe. So I don't expect any adjustments there and we're not planning for it.
But perhaps the question has to do with the slope of the capacity of the RAM block on DUV going from 375 to 600. That requires significant ramp and I'm just wondering if the ramp would look more like a step function in the latter part of 2024 as you prepare for 2025.
Well, I mean, it's a difference between the ramp and the capacity. Yeah, I mean, the capacity is 600 units, but that's about 25% immersion. That's you could call expensive capacity and a 75% is dry, which is less expensive capacity. We're just going to do that because we are currently, this is a plan to ship more than 75 systems and I also feel that when we look at the firm demand, of course, for DUV, we don't have all those orders, but the firm demand, then we actually need more capacity next year.
So it's going to be the capacity are step functions. It is not like a gradual function. So it means if we want to have 600 units by 2025, 2026, the somber by the end of 2024 in 2025, we need to have that step capacity built in the supply chain. Now, whether we're going to put all the orders in, that's dependent on the demand. But I think what we're putting in for 2025, 2026 is therefore the remainder of this decade. So we need to do this anyway, because we are strongly convinced, as I said in the prepared remarks, that the long term view that we have of this market is still very much in, you have very much intact.
So you have to distinguish between a ramp as a result, as you know, as a result of the market demand and the capacity ramp, because the capacity ramp is a step function and is in serves the purpose for the longer term.
And my final has to do with technology migration, especially on the EUV, NXE3800E, supposed to be a platform upgrade, which carries higher ASP and is in mind understanding that that platform could be used for both three and two nanometer.
Where are we with booking for those systems? And would that ASP of lift would provide you something as a cushion against a challenging macro environment?
Yeah, and in terms of bookings, of course, the bookings for the 3,800 are coming in, because if you look at next year, next year is going to show you a good blend of 3,600 and 3,800 tools. So obviously, you know, quite some of the bookings for EUV, many that are currently coming in, are also 4,800.
The 3,800, we promised you that on this call, we would disclose the ASP and the ASPs as at least north of 200,000,000 euros. So that is a clear indication, I think, of how that indeed will also help in terms of revenue. It will also help in terms of gross margin ultimately, because even though it's a more expensive machine to make, because bear in mind there are commonality, there is, you know, quite some commonality in parts between a high and 8,000 and the 3,800 tool. It's a more expensive tool to make. It's also a very healthy uptick in terms of ASP, so it will help both on the revenue side and also on the gross margin side, you know, starting in 24, but definitely in 25, when, you know, the lion's share of the tools there will be 3,800. Thank you.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I would like to speak about the gross margin, because you have said basically that despite the changes in the growth rate of different products, you still see slight improvement this year, but you also confirmed 54 to 56 percent in 2025, so that's quite an improvement.
What does it mean about the ramp of 2024, and can you maybe give us some color on the ingredient for the increase in the gross margin until 2025? Thank you.
2024年的斜坡是什么意思?您能否给我们一些关于毛利率增长原因的具体信息,直至2025年?谢谢。
Yeah, I think you heard our enthusiasm to share numbers on 2024. Or leg there also. I'm not going to do that.
是的,我想你听到了我们分享2024年数字的热情。或者在那方面也是如此。但我不打算这样做。
The growth drivers for 2025 in terms of the gross margin, there's a number that I think are significant there. We just talked about one important one, and that's the 3800. Of course, that's an important driver of gross margin improvement, definitely also in 2025. So that's one.
The second one that I think is important in comparison to today, as you know, we are preparing, you know, both for capacity expansion on DPZ and Loane, but also, you know, preparing significantly and putting a lot of money into, you know, getting everything ready for high knee, you know, both the manufacturing capacity here, we're building up teams in the field, et cetera, et cetera.
That currently is a significant drag on our gross margin as we have it today, because all of the costs that were that were that were occurring to, you know, to prepare for that capacity at the end, and for preparing for high knee everywhere in the entire organization, you know, go straight to the, straight to the gross margin today. That effect should be gone by 2025, because at that point in time, you know, you would hope that you're actually going to be in a position to utilize at least a significant part of that incremental capacity that you build, and also by that time you would see meaningful numbers of high knee.
So those are really important drivers of gross margin, and the only other one that I probably would give you is that is on the service side. As you know, we see a continued improvement of the EV service margin in particular, but also on DPV, and on both we are driving to get the service margin up, both as a result of, you know, what we're doing on the revenue side, but also in terms of trying to further control the cost.
So those are the main drivers, why, you know, looking at 2025, we believe the scenario that we gave you there, the 54 to 56%, is a tenable and reasonable aspiration for us to have.
Okay, thank you. And the quick for this, I may, is about the other book, the memory now represents 31% of the bookings versus 21% of the squatter. Is that the sign of a rebounding memory, or is it something special here?
No, I think that's where we are, that is moment. I mean, part of it is the minority, by the way, is of course, orders from Chinese memory customers, but the majority of the majority of the technology transitions are the leading memory makers. They're just preparing for the next node transition, which is a technology transition, which need, of course, you know, the type of machines and the type of technology that Roger just talked about, like, for instance, the E.U.E. systems, the 3800s.
And so, you know, this is what it is. It is not, you shouldn't see this as an immediate, you know, addition to the memory output capacity. Just accept that, you know, Chinese ones, but that's like we all know, that's mid-critical to mature stuff. That's not leading edge. Okay. Thank you very quickly. Thank you very much. Thank you. We'll now take your next question.
And your next question comes from the line of, funded, there's funding from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Yeah, hi. Can you hear me? Very good. Thank you. Yeah, I agree. Peter, one question for you. You know, I mean, you talked about the challenging macro environment at the moment. How do you see, I mean, you can see how utilization is doing at your customer base. On average, where do you see utilization is at the moment? Because that will be clearly the driver of when, you know, the customers start to get more positive in terms of orders back to you in the next few quarters. And secondly, in terms of China, China clearly is a very strong driver of your sales this year. I mean, when we look at utilization, when we hear the data points and the supply chain, at least in the logic companies in China, utilization is as bad. It's not worse than what we are hearing in other parts in the industry. So maybe to try to understand how sustainable these orders from China are into next year, given that the end markets, even in China, seem to be incredibly weak at this point.
Yeah, good. Basically, the utilization question, good question that you distinguish between memory and logic, I think in memory, I don't think we see a lot of bottoming out there. Yeah, I could argue it's bottoming out, but we don't see it kind of an inflection point. In logic, though, it's very early, but we could see some of an inflection point today. But that's just over the last short period. So see how sustainable that is. But I would think if you think about that, that's bottoming out. And you could even say we've passed an inflection point, although it's still early. Now on China, how sustainable is it? That's correct. I mean, you see the same utilization trends in China as we see in the rest of the world. But you have to realize that the demand in China has two elements. One, of course, it needs to fulfill the current demand. And that's why we just talked about them in the current demand. This is, of course, weak. The most important point is it's a strategic investment. And those thefts are being built for a purpose. When you look at what's been made in China, it's made critical to mature semiconductors. And that's the sweet spot when it comes when you look at the big mega trends, the big mega trends around the globe where China is leading, as a matter of fact. When you think about electrification of mobility, think about the energy transition. The IoT in the industrial space, the rollout of the telecommunication infrastructure, battery technology, that's all. That's the sweet spot of midcritical and mature semiconductors. And that's where China, without any exception, is leading. Now that means that the Chinese industry, the customers of the semiconductor industry, need semiconductors of that kind. And I can just tell you in the discussion that we've had, the concern of many of our Chinese customers is that given the increase of the geopolitical tensions, they do not want to rely on supply that comes out of China. So it's very simple that they're going to build a significant amount of capacity in that space, in the midcritical to mature semiconductors, especially fuel those megatrends that where China is actually leading. So if you didn't look at the big home market and that desire, because of the fear that they have on the increase in geopolitical tensions, they're going to build all those fabs themselves. And that's what's happening. Those fabs will be built. There are many new fabs and new companies that actually say we're going to provide those type of semiconductors to support these megatrends where China is indeed leading. And that's what's happening today. It's not so much the current macroeconomic or the market situation that drives the demand. It's the strategic investment that drives the demand because it's the dependence that that part of the Chinese industry has on imports. And that's, I think, is very sustainable. This is very sustainable for the next couple of years. Thank you very much. Thank you. We will now go to your next question.
And your next question comes from the line of Sarah Russell from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自Bernstein的Sarah Russell,请发言。
Hi. Can you hear me?
嗨,你能听到我说话吗?
Yeah. Yeah. Great. Hello. Thanks for taking my question. I was just wanting to give us an update on high NA. So indications are that customers are not delaying the tech transition. So are you still on track for first shipments to customers in 2024? And have you seen any increase in orders as you get closer to those first shipments?
Yeah. I think we're still on track for the first shipment in 2024, yes. We're actually this year, we're starting to shift the first module. So that's on track, and that also means for 2024. Yeah, I don't think that delaying the introduction at all. You're absolutely right. And yes, we are still seeing orders coming in. So both is confirmative. With the point made that, and I think Rachey alluded to that, that if there's anything on high NA, we need to make sure that the supply chain, which of course needs to supply is with critical new technology, will actually be on time. So our main focus is on the execution in the supply chain, not so much from the demand side. It's really about execution.
Great. Thanks. And can we get maybe, could you give us a little bit of color on where you stand on high NA orders in the backlog? So assuming that you now are sort of seeing a good number come in, can you get a sense of orders in the backlog and timing of those orders?
Yeah, we said before that our customers, given there is only a very limited number of customers for high NA. Our customers really do not want us to disclose the disclose that PO bookings on high NA. I mean, that's the situation. That's why we're not sharing those data. But for quite a while now, we're looking at double-digit numbers in the backlog. Let me put it that way. And that's quite a while back that we started to cross that level. So it's increasing. And it's increasing. Yeah.
Okay. Yeah, I'm clear. Perfect. So the first question is obviously Peter, you were clear on 2024 uncertainty, at least in terms of units. And you will come back later with a clear picture. And then just, and Roger, you started to talk about the ISP for the EUV, next year with the E model coming to market with 38 and Raj with, if I understand correctly, an ISP of close to 20% close, best to see older models. Can you help us give us more color on the ISP? So something you can have maybe more visibility on to next year for EUV. So you touch upon, but also DPUV, you know, with all the moving parts with China, with your new models as well of DPUV on the market, the 2100 with a 20% improvement in overlay, you have inflation on top. So just how should we think about the ISP specifically, you need to decide if you like about your both businesses, basically?
Yeah, Francois, I think I was quite clear, I think, on the on the ASP for the 3800. So I said north of 200 million. So I think that was clear. When it comes to ASPs in the DPV landscape, of course, it's very widely distributed. And there, obviously, the mix effect is quite significant. And that is true both within the portfolio of KRF of dry tools and also in wet tools. So you're absolutely right. I mean, the new models that we're introducing, of course, give significant value to the customer and therefore, commanding a significantly higher price than all the models. So that is clearly the case, but it is completely dependent on the mix within the dry business and the immersion business. And also in the immersion business, you have to also realize that what I said in the prepared remarks that we cannot ship our most advanced immersion tools to China, but we can ship our mid-critical immersion tools to China. And that, of course, gives even in the immersion scope gives a quite a significant spread. So it is very difficult to give you one number for the DPV analysis based basically to heterogeneous.
Okay. Thank you very much for that. And may you, Anurji, and the second question is on the install-based management. I mean, if you look at the guidance of flat, again, I understand that the level of upgrade is not as you may be expecting the current environment. If you look at the guidance of flat, you would imply decline in H2 year over year at least. So how should we think about the level of Peter? You mentioned a small sign of recovery. It's early days, but it's been a small sign. And the fact that the install-based management would be very close to the demand in terms of recovery or each generation, speaking up, just trying to reconcile that and how should we think about install-based management into next year with your EUV as well going up and ISP per tool per year? I mean, business model.
Let me first take the question on 23. And maybe Peter, you want to expand it further.
让我先回答23号的问题。也许Peter,你想进一步扩展一下。
But as it comes to 23, I think the right frame of reference, of course, is not half year over half year, but the second half in comparison to the first half. And the first half we had 2.7 billion and flat would mean that we're going to have 3 billion in the second half. So that would point at a recovery.
And given the guidance that we've given for Q3, Q3, we indicated 1.4. So it doesn't take a lot of compute power to calculate it. That would mean 1.6 for Q4. So that tells you that indeed we are looking at a recovery there. That would be commensurate with the perspective of the recovery that Peter has been talking about. But that's what we're looking at for this year and the slope of recovery there. Yeah, and I think the slope of recovery is critical and very important because, like I said, although it's very early, but you could argue and you look at the utilization graphs, you could think that there is an inflation point for logic. We've had that. But, no, it's still pretty early on. But if that would continue, then it's really important to look at the slope because for upgrade business, basically you could argue you have a relatively short period of time before you hit, again, high utilization. And then customers say, well, I don't have the time. I don't want to shut down the tool.
So I think we will watch this very carefully together with our customers to say, okay, looking at the slope of the slope accelerates, then we really need to start negotiating with the customer quickly to put in more upgrades. And that could be an upside when the recovery accelerates. When it's a slower degree, slow, they'll probably take a bit more time. But that's also where it's the same reasoning. We now have time to upgrade because we don't have a full utilization of the installed base. So there is some upgrade there, but still customers are currently saying, you know, market is not good, it's still CapEx because there are high value upgrades. So they're a bit cautious now. But yeah, we have to start being very, very close to our customers. The next couple quarters to say, you know, if we see an opportunity, let's go. Because before you know it, they don't have time. All right. Thank you very much. Thank you. Who will now go to your next question?
I just have to. First one would be in the talk about the recovery being pushed up somewhat. And you do give a cautious message on 2024. So my question is really, is there a possibility that the significant start of openings you spoke about in 2025 could be pushed out by six months or a year? Is that something that's possible?
I mean, if the customers have either capacity for longer, one day push out capacity additions as a result for all of those strategic plan openings. Really strategic, I will go ahead regardless of the bank pattern. That's what I have. Thank you.
Yeah, I think, you know, on this, on the leading edge logic, they will happen. I mean, they have, it's basically it's not, and it's driven by the roadmaps of the customers of our customers. It's the apples, the core comes, the NVIDIA's of this world that actually have a very clear, you know, road map based on the 20 or the three in animated designs and they want those new products to be introduced at that time. So that's going to happen. We have little doubt there. And I think on the strategic Pepsi in China made that very clear. I think, you know, it's just a strategic, very clear focus area that they have because, you know, they want to hatch against any negative geopolitical repercussions that could come. So that's also strategic. So I see a little downside in 2025. Excellent. Thank you very much. And then just kind of a technical follow up on the 700 million cash in DQV that are moving out of fast shipment. Did all of that occur in the second quarter that you've reported or is it speed was written that they reported in the current quarter? Are they saying what proportions please? And while we're talking of fast shipments, our discussions are the similar change to the table for EUV or is that on the table now? Thank you.
So the 700 million is the expectation that we have for the end of the year, right? So of course there will be a little bit of flux during the year, but the 700 million is the expectation that we have for that in the year. Of course we have some of that also in this quarter, but the 700 million really is the expectation that we see for the full year.
As it comes to EUV, you know, it's based on the conversations that we've had with the customers. They're very happy to take, you know, the risk of the tool for the immersion tools upon shipment and based upon a shorter testing program for EUV will not vary yet. So, you know, the question will be also, you know, based on how next year is going to pan out. I think that we're going to get the question of how much fast shipment are we going to see for EUV next year in comparison to normal shipments. I think that's the primary question that we have on EUV.
So if you think about, you know, to what extent could we have some tailwind from that in that regard, I think it will be heavily dependent on, you know, what we're going to do in terms of bracket versus the fast shipment. There are two considerations there for next year. One consideration is that, you know, as a standard procedure, when we introduce new technology, we want to test them more, right? So the 3,800 clearly is a significant development in our EUV, you know, in our EUV shop and that means that, you know, at least for a number of tools, we want to do, you know, more testing and more elaborate testing and therefore, at least for a number of the initial tools, we wouldn't fashive them. So we regular shipments and do this full testing program.
And secondly, as I mentioned, it will be dependent on the utilization of our capacity, right? Because fashivement is a way to get the tool, earlier to the customer, but it's also a way to optimize our capacity. So it will be driven by those two considerations, what we're going to see there next year in terms of type of shipment. And that will tell you, you know, whether or not we're going to get any tailwind for EUV revenue as a result of that.
Excellent. Thank you very much. Thank you. We'll now go to your next question. Comes from the line of Alexander Devile from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, May. Thanks for question. You spoke about a push out in demand timing for EUV. I wonder to what extent we should think about this as a one-off push out from 23 to 24, given the customers presumably would still need these tools for their fabs that are still getting built. And their customers in turn have product aspirations for 25 that you've just mentioned. Or to what extent would you expect some 2024 units to be subsequently pushed into 2025? And then I've got a quick follow-up.
Good question. We need to realize you had to look at the reasons predominantly the push has have to do with fab readiness. And that was basically driven by construction skills. And you think, well, how can that be, you know, just hire a couple of construction workers and you just build a fab. You know, just building a $20 billion fab that's going to do a 5 or 3 or a 2 nanometer product is a skill. And people don't seem to realize that when we start building those fabs across the globe now and are everywhere, that that skill has been refined over the last couple of decades in only a few places on the planet, predominantly in Taiwan and in Korea and a bit in China. Now having to do that now and accelerate this will lead to all kinds of issues because we are still building those fabs in Korea and in Taiwan, but also in other places on the planet, also in the US, for instance.
So getting access to the requisite skills and skilled workers to keep the construction plan on time is a challenge. And so these were what customers tell us. Yeah. And this is the main reason. You can easily look at the day of a couple of months or a quarter. Now, and of course, like I mentioned earlier, we need those two nanometer fabs or three nanometer fabs in 2025. But it also means we need to resolve in, let's say, a 18 month period, yeah, some of those skills gaps. And then, you know, but I think, you know, it might easily be a problem also at the end of next year, but let's see how quickly they can scale up, you know, the construction industry to help build those fabs. So that's the predominant reason for the timing changes or the amount timing changes. And of course, there's also been in this particular year where there's a few supply chain issues that just one or two systems, but it was predominantly it was just fab readiness. And for the reasons that I just mentioned, then, you know, and I hope they could reskill quickly and that at the end of 2024, we don't have those issues.
Hey, thanks. And just a quick follow up. We've seen some news flow on demand for leading edge ships driven by AI applications. Can you just share your latest views on any growth opportunity from AI in 2024, given that obviously 2023 shipment schedules are full? I think you alluded in your video prepared remarks to that potentially being incrementally supportive driver of demand. So just curious for any thoughts there.
Yeah, I think that's true. But I think we're at the beginning of this of this, you could say, AI, high power compute wave. So yes, you'll probably see some of that in 2024. But you have to remember that we have some capacity there, which is called the current under utilization. So yes, we will see some of that, but that will being taken up that particular demand by the install base. Now, and that will further accelerate. I'm pretty sure.
Yeah, but that will definitely mean that that will be, you could say the, you know, ship to customer by 2025. So I don't see that or don't particularly expect that that will be a big driver for, you know, additional shipments in 2020 for a given, you know, utilization situation that we see today. Very clear. Thank you. Thank you. We'll now go to the next question.
And your next question comes from the line of do Khatriki from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
你下一个问题来自富国银行的卡特里基先生,请提问。请讲。
Yeah, thanks for taking the question. One on domestic China domain, you talked about a fill rate that was less than 50%. Do you expect to be caught up to that exiting this year? Are we still trying to kind of fulfill that domain looking into 24?
Yeah, I think I think we're still, like we said, also. In the prepare remarks that the demand is still more than we can ship. So that also means that we still have a fill rate that's not 100%. It's still lower than of course it's significantly higher than the significantly lower than 50% that we saw in 21 and 22, you know, where we had, you know, screaming customers that we simply couldn't ship enough. And you know, China was, you know, one of the real victims. Now of course today with the fabs being ready there, the pedestals being there, you know, anything that doesn't ship to any under country goes to China. But there's still some, you know, demand that will move into 2024 because we don't have 100% fill rate today. Got it. Thanks for that.
And then this is a follow up in the recovery of the install based management business that you talked about implied for 4223. Is that predicated on just logic alone or is there also some expectation that you see some memory recovery embedded in that?
Yeah, I think we don't, yes, the solver down the line, there will be a recovery, yeah, because then that's going to be, probably when we go through these inflection points in the second half of this year. And then it's all about the, you know, slope of the recovery. And this is where we have some uncertainty that we expressed loud and clear, I think, you know, and that's the uncertainty that we get from customers because they don't know either. So I think it's a bit too early. I think it's fair to assume that a utilization rates of memory are lower than the utilization rate on logic, right?
Yeah, sure. And it's reasonable to assume that logic would be ahead of the curve and the interest of the interest of great. Yeah, also because, you know, like I said earlier, we could argue when we look at the stats, you could already see an inflection point, but it's, like I said, it's very early on. So we'll just have to see how that continues over the next couple of weeks and months of logic.
Perfect. Thanks for the color. Thank you. So now goes your next question.
太好了。谢谢你给的颜色。谢谢你。现在该问你下一个问题了。
And your next question comes from the line of CJ Muse from EwaCore. Isi, please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自EwaCore的CJ Muse,请告诉我们,Isi。
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I guess first question for Rojay. I think you're fairly clear on the call that no changes to kind of the capacity ads. So curious how we should think about op X growth into 2024.
Yeah, I think the op X that we're currently guiding for the year, I think that's a pretty good estimate, I think, for what we see for the rest of the year. I think in terms of next year, I think it would also be a little bit dependent on how we further see things develop. And that to a certain extent will at least drive also the SG&A side of life. On R&D, as you know, we continue to have really good ideas. And on R&D, we typically try to play this on the longer term. So I think it is realistic to assume that on R&D, you will see some increase, albeit at a slightly lower pace than the very sharp increases that you've seen in the past couple of years.
Very helpful. And then Peter, I guess as a follow up, you know, I know that you're actively working with the Dutch government, but curious, you know, as to your kind of thoughts around any potential timeline from hearing from maybe more restrictive kind of thoughts out of the US government.
Yeah, you know, of course, we have regular discussion with it now, you know, Dutch government, which is inactive because of the political situation here. So we're going to prepare for new elections. But I think we just have to wait for what comes out of the US now, you know. But the reason why we said based on what our understanding is, and I jokingly said here internally, it wasn't even jokingly. I actually meant it.
You know, I've been in this business for quite a long time. And my hunch about what the Dutch were finally going to say in the end was about right. So this is why we informed you in March. And I also have a kind of a hunch on what's going to happen for the rest of the year and with the new rules. And am I just gut feel is based on what we hear and our understanding is not going to have a material in their impact, but having said that we don't know exactly what the content of those new regulations is going to be. But we just have to wait. I think Japan came out, the Dutch came out. I think the US government will probably come out soon. And they will know for sure whether my hunch and my gut feel was correct.
All right. We have time for one last question. If you are unable to get through on this call and still have questions, please feel free to contact the ASL investor relations department with your question. Now, operator, may we have the last caller, please. Thank you. We will now take your last question for today. And the question comes from Tommy Cugh from Berrenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for scooting me in. So firstly, Peter, relating to your China exposure. Do you have any format of customer concentration? I, does one or few customer accounting for more than, let's say, 50% of the demand from China at all?
No. I think it's the, the number of customers in China is significantly higher than, and I just talk about the spread of the customer significantly higher than anywhere on the planet. It has to do with the fact that it all goes back to where Chinese industry, don't talk about the semiconductor industry, but industry in general is actually growing. It grows in those areas, which are covered by the big mega trends. And that means that specific requirements for semiconductors to support those trends actually ask for very significant and different applications that put the demand on this wide range of mid-critical to mature semiconductors. And that's a lot. And that also means that you see customers, semiconductor customers, now focusing on certain of those areas. And it means you have many, many customers. And that's all, it's, it's, it's pretty widespread, whether it's memory, whether it's logic, a foundry, it's almost everything, but many of them. And they're much focused on specific parts of the industry. So yeah, it's, it's, it's on the contrary. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's not specifically focused on one or two customers. It's, it's a broad base.
Okay, thank you. And also you mentioned that you can actually ship the mid-critical machines to China and still basically allow them to do whatever they want to. So let's say the main stream you are shipping to China from the immersion perspective in 1980, if you can only ship something like 1970 or older machine, do you think that can allow them still do what they want to do?
Yeah, you have to realize that when you ship an immersion tool and just do the math, which is, you know, the wavelength of the light over the numerical aperture of the lens. That's, that's 193 over 1.3, 1.33. Yeah. Times a K factor, which is the process factor, which is, which has an absolute minimum of 0.26 because beyond that, you don't have any contrast. So if you do the math, you do it on your calculator, you come to 38 nanometer. So whether it's a one 1970 or a 1980 or a 2000 or 2100, it's 38 nanometer. So how do you get smaller, you know, sizes? That is where you start using double patterning. And that's basically determined by your capabilities of materials, which is deposition and edge. So it's, of course, the most advanced have one determining factor in that, you know, it's the precision with which the tool works. And this is where if you look at the Dutch regulation, it doesn't mention a type name. It just mentions a technical specification, which focuses on the precision with which the tool works. That's where the cutoff point is. But in terms of feature size, it's the same. But it's really the precision with which you can position the feature sizes on the wafer. That's where the cutoff point is. And that's determined in the regulation. Yeah. So it's all deposition and edge. Yeah.
All right. Now on behalf of ASML, I'd like to thank you all for joining us today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I'd appreciate it.
好的。现在代表ASML我想感谢大家今天的参与。操作员,如果你能正式结束通话,我会很感谢。
Thank you. Thank you. I'd like to conclude the ASML 2023 second quarter financial results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.