Will Refining be the Bottleneck for Lithium Supply? // Part 1
发布时间 2023-07-08 12:57:33 来源
Welcome back everyone, I'm Jordan Geisigee and this is The Limiting Factor. At Tesla's 2023 annual meeting, Elon Musk said that lithium refining is the bottleneck for lithium-ion battery production and he doesn't expect there to be a bottleneck with lithium mining. In other words, he disagrees with lithium industry experts, which are all saying that mining will be the bottleneck.
大家欢迎回到节目《限制因素》，我是乔丹·盖锡基，接下来我们要谈的是特斯拉在2023年的年度会议上，埃隆·马斯克表示锂精炼是锂离子电池生产的瓶颈，而他并不认为锂采矿会成为瓶颈。换句话说，他与锂行业的专家们持不同意见，后者都在说采矿将成为瓶颈。
But he also said that he could be wrong, so is Elon wrong or is the lithium industry wrong? Answering that question actually requires a full walkthrough of the global lithium supply chain and so this video is an excerpt from a larger video that covers the topic in full. The full video is already available for Patreon supporters, Twitter subscribers and YouTube members. I'll be releasing one section of the video every two weeks before releasing the full video at the end of the series.
但是他也说他可能错了，那么埃隆是错了还是锂工业错了？回答这个问题实际上需要对全球锂供应链进行全面介绍，所以这个视频是一个覆盖了该主题的整体视频的一部分。完整的视频已经可以供Patreon支持者、Twitter订阅者和YouTube会员观看。我将每两周发布视频的一个部分，然后在系列结束时发布完整视频。
In this video, we'll look at why lithium will likely be the bottleneck for lithium-ion battery production, the margins of mining versus refining, the forecast for lithium refining capacity and utilization, why Tesla may be pushing for more refining capacity, and why Tesla's vertical integration into lithium refining is a smart move.
在这段视频中，我们将探讨为什么锂可能会成为锂离子电池生产的瓶颈，采矿与精炼之间的利润差异，锂精炼能力和利用率的预测，特斯拉可能推动增加精炼能力的原因，以及特斯拉垂直整合到锂精炼业的聪明之举。
Before we begin, a raft of credits and thanks are in order. I encourage watching this part of the video rather than skipping it because it's not just a thanks. It also lets you know the quality of my sources and peer review.
在我们开始之前，首先需要致谢一系列人士。我鼓励大家观看视频的这一部分，而不是跳过，因为这不仅仅是感谢。它还能让你了解我的资源和同行评审的质量。
First, Vivaas Kumar reviewed the draft script. Vivaas was directly involved with Tesla's battery supply chain for nearly three years, where he negotiated billions of dollars of material spend and also did strategic analysis and forecasting for battery materials. After that, he worked for benchmark mineral intelligence for nearly three years. He's now co-founder and CEO of Mitra-Kim. If you'd like to know more about that, check out my interview with Vivaas Anchiro.
首先，Vivaas Kumar审查了这份初稿剧本。Vivaas在特斯拉的电池供应链工作了近三年，期间他参与了数十亿美元的物资支出谈判，并对电池材料进行战略分析和预测。之后，他在Benchmark Mineral Intelligence工作了将近三年。他现在是Mitra-Kim的联合创始人和首席执行官。如果您想了解更多信息，请去看看与Vivaas Anchiro的我的采访。
Next, my sources. Rodney and Howard of Arc Equity, a Lithium Analysis and Advisory Firm, spent several hours and long email threads answering detailed questions about mine development. If you're interested in their work, you can connect with them on Twitter with the details on screen or follow the Rockstock channel on YouTube.
接下来是我的资源。Rodney和Howard来自Lithium Analysis and Advisory Firm的Arc Equity，在矿山开发方面耗费了几个小时的时间，并通过长电子邮件线程回答了详细的问题。如果你对他们的工作感兴趣，可以通过屏幕上的详细信息在Twitter上与他们联系，或者关注Rockstock频道的YouTube。
Cameron Perks of benchmark mineral intelligence walked me through how lithium supply and demand is evolving over time. I recommend following benchmark mineral intelligence and their CEO Simon Moore's on Twitter to keep up to date with the Lithium industry. Lars Lee's doll provided key data for this video around lithium refining capacity versus production, and beyond that, I've used a number of graphs from Ristad Energy over the years. You can also follow Lars on Twitter.
Cameron Perks从Benchmark Mineral Intelligence向我解释了锂供应和需求随时间的演变。我建议在Twitter上关注Benchmark Mineral Intelligence及其首席执行官Simon Moore，以了解锂行业的最新信息。Lars Lee提供了关于锂提炼能力与产量的关键数据，此外，我多年来还使用了来自Ristad Energy的许多图表。你也可以在Twitter上关注Lars。
Austin Devaney helped me put a finer point on a few topics around hard rock lithium mining. Ryan was an executive at Alba Marl and Rockwood Lithium for nearly 10 years, which is one of Tesla's largest lithium suppliers, and now has been at Piedmont Lithium for the past three years, which has an agreement for future supply to Tesla.
奥斯汀·德维尼（Austin Devaney）帮助我进一步明确了关于硬岩锂矿开采的几个问题。瑞安曾在Alba Marl和Rockwood Lithium担任高管近10年，这两家公司是特斯拉最大的锂供应商之一。目前他已经在皮蒙特锂业（Piedmont Lithium）任职三年，该公司与特斯拉达成了未来供应协议。
Bradford Ferguson and Matt Smith of RebellionAir.com reviewed the final release candidate of the video from an investor lens. RebellionAir specializes in helping investors manage concentrated positions. They can help with covered calls, risk management, and creating a financial master plan from your first principles. Bear in mind, this video is not investment advice, and always do your own research.
Bradford Ferguson和Matt Smith来自RebellionAir.com，从投资者的角度对最终发布版本的视频进行了审核。RebellionAir专注于帮助投资者管理集中头寸。他们可以提供备兑认购、风险管理，并从您的首要原则出发制定财务总体规划。请记住，该视频不构成投资建议，请始终进行自己的研究。
Finally, despite all the input I received from some of the leading experts and information sources in the Lithium industry, all the opinions in this video are my own. There are differing views and forecasts within the Lithium industry that I had to reconcile and combine with my own insights and expectations. With regards to the peer review, it was for factual accuracy and a sanity check, rather than for crafting the tone and conclusions of the video.
最后，尽管我从锂行业的一些顶尖专家和信息来源获得了许多意见，但视频中的所有观点都是我个人的。锂行业存在不同的观点和预测，我需要将它们与我自己的洞察和预期结合起来。至于同行评审，它主要是为了核实事实的准确性，并进行一次理智检查，而不是为了制定视频的语气和结论。
Overall, my goal was to create the most comprehensive resource out there on how global lithium supply and battery supply will evolve this decade and how that relates to Tesla. So if you feel like I've hit the mark and get value from the video or my content in general, toss a coin to your witcher. Using a video like this takes months and generally, analysis like this would be packaged up by an analyst house and put in a report that costs thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars.
总的来说，我的目标是创建一个关于全球锂供应和电池供应在本十年内如何发展以及与特斯拉的关系的最全面的资源。因此，如果你觉得我达到了目标并从视频或我的内容中获得了价值，就像向你的魔法猎人投一枚硬币一样。制作这样的视频需要数月时间，通常这样的分析会由分析公司打包成一份价值数千甚至数万美元的报告。
Generally, I make about $2 to $600 per video in YouTube ad revenues. That is, it's the direct support that I get from less than 1% of subscribers through Patreon, YouTube, and Twitter that makes the channel possible. The details for support are in the description.
通常情况下，我通过YouTube广告收入每个视频能赚到大约2到600美元。也就是说，通过Patreon、YouTube和Twitter这不到1%的订阅者直接的支持，才使得这个频道得以存在。支持的具体细节请见视频描述部分。
A good place to start with the lithium supply chain is Elon's comment from the Q1 2022 earnings call, where he said that mining and refining will be a limiting factor for Tesla. Why is that?
对于锂供应链来说，从埃隆在2022年第一季度收益电话会议上的评论开始是一个很好的起点。他提到，挖掘和精炼将成为特斯拉的限制因素。为什么会这样呢？
这表明埃隆认为特斯拉在锂供应方面可能会面临挑战。锂是电动汽车电池的重要组成部分，特斯拉作为一家主要生产电动汽车的公司，对锂的需求量巨大。然而，锂的挖掘和精炼过程是复杂且耗时的，并且有限的供应能力可能无法满足特斯拉的需求，可能会成为限制其扩张和生产的因素。
特斯拉是一家全球知名的电动汽车制造商，目前已在全球建立了超级充电站网络，并计划进一步扩大其生产和销售规模。因此，对于特斯拉来说，确保稳定的锂供应是至关重要的。任何供应链中断或瓶颈都可能对公司的运营产生负面影响，这也是埃隆在评论中提到的限制因素。
这一问题的解决可能需要特斯拉采取多种策略，如与锂供应商建立长期合作关系、积极参与锂资源开发和优化锂提取技术等。通过这些举措，特斯拉可以在锂供应链上保持竞争优势，并确保所需的资源供应与公司的发展步伐相匹配。
总之，埃隆在他的评论中提到的挖掘和精炼是特斯拉锂供应链中值得关注的问题，对于公司未来的发展和增长具有重要意义。
The image on screen shows how much of each metal is produced each year on a global level. I've labeled lithium in pink. As you can see, global lithium production is between one and four orders of magnitude smaller than the iron, copper, aluminum, and nickel industries. I mention those four metals because they're the other metals used in lithium ion batteries. The next closest bottleneck behind lithium is nickel, which is produced at 27 times greater volumes than lithium.
屏幕上的图像显示了全球每年生产的各种金属数量。我已经用粉色标出了锂。从图中可以看出，全球锂的产量比铁、铜、铝和镍行业小上一到四个数量级。我提到这四种金属是因为它们是锂离子电池中使用的其他金属。在锂之后，下一个产量瓶颈是镍，其生产量比锂高出27倍。
While it's true that lithium only makes up about 2 to 3% of the weight of a nickel-based lithium ion battery cell compared to 15% for nickel, that nickel can be substituted for iron, which is hugely abundant. That's as opposed to lithium, which can't be substituted in a lithium ion battery. For those already eager to bring up sodium ion batteries, which will face fewer resource constraints than lithium ion batteries, I'll cover those later in the video.
尽管镍基锂离子电池的重量中，锂只占约2到3%，而镍占比15%，我们也要承认，镍可以用铁来替代，而铁在地球上非常丰富。而锂则不能被其他物质替代在锂离子电池中。对于那些已经迫不及待想提出钠离子电池的人来说，这种电池将面临的资源限制要比锂离子电池少，我将在视频的后面介绍钠离子电池。
So just on the face of it, to transition the world to sustainable energy, lithium's going to be a bottleneck because it has to grow from a much smaller base than the other materials used in a battery cell. On an absolute basis, it's easier to scale an industry that's already large than it is to scale an industry that's small. That's not to say metals like copper and aluminum or chemicals like phosphate won't also pose a challenge, just that lithium will pose the greatest challenge.
在表面上，要让世界过渡到可持续能源，锂将成为一个瓶颈，因为它的基数比电池中使用的其他材料要小很多。就绝对基数而言，要扩大一个已经很大的行业比扩大一个小行业要容易得多。这并不意味着像铜、铝或磷酸这样的金属或化学物质不会造成挑战，只是锂将是最大的挑战。
Let's move on to Elon's comment from the Q2 2022 earnings call, which is that mining is easy and lithium refining is harder. While it's true that lithium refining requires a high caliber technical skill set, it's easier than mining in other ways. For example, getting a mining permit is notoriously difficult in some jurisdictions like the US, where it can take 7 to 10 years. That is, both mining and refining are each hard in their own ways.
让我们来看看埃隆在2022年Q2盈利电话会议中的评论，他说采矿容易，锂精炼更难。虽然锂精炼确实需要高水平的技术技能，但在其他方面来说比采矿容易。例如，在一些地区如美国，获得采矿许可证非常困难，可能需要7至10年的时间。也就是说，无论是采矿还是精炼，各自都有其难点。
Furthermore, in my view, it doesn't actually matter which industry is harder. That's because the technical skills and knowledge to do each are out there, it's just a matter of propagating them with investment. That means the relevant question for Tesla shouldn't be which industry is harder, it should be, how quickly can each mining and refining scale to meet Tesla's needs, and is Tesla paying higher margins to miners or refiners? The answers to those questions will let us know where Tesla should focus their resources, because if Tesla wants to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, what they need is large volumes of lithium at a low price.
此外，在我看来，究竟哪个行业更困难并不重要。这是因为完成每个行业所需的技术技能和知识已经存在，只需要通过投资来推广。这意味着对于特斯拉来说，相关问题不应该是哪个行业更难，而是采矿和提炼能够以多快的速度满足特斯拉的需求，并且特斯拉是否支付更高利润给采矿商或提炼商？这些问题的答案将告诉我们特斯拉应该在哪个领域集中资源，因为如果特斯拉希望加速世界向可持续能源的过渡，他们需要的是低成本的大量锂。
Let's start with margins. In the Q2 2022 earnings call, Elon said that at that time, lithium refining had software like margins. Is that true? And how do the margins for lithium refining compare to lithium mining? The image on screen shows the margin split for producing lithium from SC or spodumene concentrate from Australia that's been bought at spot prices on the open market and refined in China by an independent refiner into lithium hydroxide. Let's take a look at what that means.
让我们从利润率开始说起。在2022年第二季度财报电话会议上，埃隆表示，当时锂提炼行业的利润率非常高。这是真的吗？锂提炼行业的利润率与锂矿开采相比如何？屏幕上的图片显示了从澳大利亚购买的SC或硬岩锂精矿，在中国由独立提炼厂商提炼成羟化锂的利润分配情况。让我们来看看这意味着什么。
First, spot market pricing means buying a material on the open market rather than on contract. There's spot market pricing available for a number of materials that go into batteries and at different stages of the manufacturing process. This image shows the cost breakdown for producing lithium hydroxide, where all the transactions are done at spot market pricing. As a side note, spot market prices for lithium vary by country, the quality of the lithium and the type of lithium.
首先，现货市场定价意味着在公开市场购买材料，而不是通过合同购买。有许多原料可在电池生产的不同阶段通过现货市场定价获得。这张图显示了生产氢氧化锂的成本分解，其中所有交易均以现货市场定价进行。值得一提的是，锂的现货市场价格因国家、锂的质量和类型而异。
Lithium carbonate spot prices in China often attract media attention because it's the largest and most liquid spot market for lithium. However, there's two reasons why the price on the Chinese spot market for lithium carbonate can sometimes lead people astray. First, the Chinese spot market makes up less than 10% of the total lithium market because most lithium is bought on contract at lower prices. Second, as you can see, under the same shipping terms, battery grade lithium carbonate costs about $10,000 less than lithium hydroxide. Both lithium carbonate and hydroxide are used in EV batteries and each chemical has its own market dynamics. Because lithium hydroxide will cost more than lithium carbonate and sometimes lithium carbonate will cost more than lithium hydroxide. That is, the single variable market pricing that often attracts people's attention is a blunt instrument. It doesn't take into account the country quality or type of lithium, let alone whether an EV maker is buying lithium on the spot market or through contract, which we'll get into later.
中国的碳酸锂现货价格常常吸引媒体关注，因为中国是最大、最流动的碳酸锂现货市场。然而，中国碳酸锂现货市场的价格有时会让人产生误导的原因有两个。首先，中国现货市场占据了不到总体锂市场的10%，因为大部分锂是以更低的价格通过合同购买的。其次，正如您所看到的，在相同的运输条件下，电池级碳酸锂的成本比氢氧化锂要低大约10000美元。碳酸锂和氢氧化锂都被用于电动汽车电池中，每种化学物质都有其自身的市场动态。因为氢氧化锂的价格高于碳酸锂，有时碳酸锂的价格也高于氢氧化锂。也就是说，单一变量的市场定价常常会引起人们的关注，但它并没有考虑到锂的国家质量或类型，更不用说电动汽车制造商是通过现货市场还是通过合同购买锂，我们稍后会讨论这个问题。
During the long, spodumine is a type of rock that contains about 1% lithium. Part of the mining process for spodumine involves concentrating the raw material to about 6% lithium, which is called spodumine concentrate. The spodumine concentrate is sent to a refinery in China where it's refined to greater than 99% pure lithium carbonate or hydroxide. The Australian spodumine with Chinese refining pathway for lithium hydroxide is one of the major production pathways that Tesla relies on for their lithium. It probably makes up about a third of the lithium that goes into their batteries from all sources and three-quarters of the lithium Tesla uses to produce cells with Panasonic and for their own 4680 production.
在整个过程中，辉石是一种含有约1％锂的岩石。辉石的采矿过程之一是将原材料浓缩到约6％的锂含量，这被称为辉石浓缩物。将辉石浓缩物送往中国的一家炼厂，经过精炼处理后可得到超过99％纯度的碳酸锂或氢氧化锂。澳大利亚辉石以中国的精炼路径生产氢氧化锂，这是特斯拉主要依赖的一个生产路径。它可能占据了特斯拉电池中所有来源锂的约三分之一，并且占据了特斯拉与松下和自身用于4680电池生产的锂约四分之三。
That's because lithium hydroxide is used for high nickel batteries, which is about half of Tesla cell consumption. The other half of Tesla cell consumption is LFP batteries from Chinese companies like CATO, which use lithium carbonate. Although Tesla uses the Australian spodumine with Chinese refining pathway heavily, they buy most of their lithium through private contracts rather than through the spot market. More on that in a moment. With all that background about lithium markets and pricing out of the way, as you can see, for lithium hydroxide production, most of the margin is actually going to lithium miners, shown in orange, as opposed to lithium refiners, shown in green.
这是因为高镍电池使用了氢氧化锂，这种电池占特斯拉电池消耗的大约一半。特斯拉电池消耗的另一半来自中国公司如CATO生产的LFP电池，这种电池使用的是碳酸锂。尽管特斯拉大量使用澳大利亚的锂辉石，并采用中国的精炼路径，但他们大部分的锂采购是通过私下合约而非现货市场进行的。稍后将详细讨论这个问题。经过这些与锂市场和价格相关的背景介绍，如您所见，对于氢氧化锂的生产，大部分利润实际上都流向了锂矿工，用橙色表示，而不是锂精炼商，用绿色表示。
Though this graph provides a good visualization, it doesn't provide as much detail as we need. That's because mining and refining production costs are lumped together as cost of production in blue. Let's dig deeper to tease out the production costs for each mining and refining to work out the profit margin percentages for each. The production cost of spodumine concentrate for lithium miners is about $600 per ton. Around December of last year, they were able to turn around and sell that spodumine concentrate on the spot market for $7,000 per ton. It takes 7 tons of spodumine concentrate to make one ton of lithium hydroxide. That means in December, the mined material that went into one ton of lithium hydroxide had a production cost of $4,200 and a market price of $49,000. That led to a profit margin of about 91% for lithium miners.
尽管该图提供了一个很好的视觉效果，但它没有提供我们需要的详细信息。这是因为采矿和精炼生产成本都被合并在蓝色的生产成本中。让我们深入挖掘，分析出每个采矿和精炼的生产成本，以计算出每个的利润率百分比。对于锂矿石矿工来说，锂长石浓缩物的生产成本约为每吨600美元。去年12月左右，他们能够将这种锂长石浓缩物以7000美元的价格卖出。需要7吨锂长石浓缩物才能制成一吨氢氧化锂。这意味着在12月份，用于一吨氢氧化锂的开采材料的生产成本为4200美元，市场价格为49000美元。这导致了锂矿工的利润率约为91%。
How about on the refining end? Mining and transport to the refinery costs about $5,000 per ton. In December, the refiners were adding about $10,000 per ton of refining fees. That led to a profit margin of 67% at a sale price of $64,000. That is, on the spot market, both mining and refining offer software like margins. But in December, mining was offering margins 24 percentage points higher than refining. So Elon was correct in saying that refiners are getting huge margins, but at least on the spot market, miners are getting even larger margins.
在提炼过程中如何？矿山和运输到精炼厂的成本大约为每吨5,000美元。在12月份，精炼厂每吨炼化费用约为10,000美元。这导致以64,000美元的销售价格，利润率为67%。也就是说，在现货市场上，无论是采矿还是提炼，都有类似软件的利润率。但在12月份，采矿的利润率比提炼高出24个百分点。因此埃隆在说精炼厂的利润很高时是正确的，但至少在现货市场上，矿工的利润更高。
However, both are currently getting large margins because lithium demand is growing faster than both lithium refining and mining capacity. That is, a shortage. But as I said a moment ago, Tesla buys their lithium hydroxide through private contracts rather than on the spot market. Unfortunately, because Tesla has a number of lithium contracts in place with different suppliers and the contracts are private, we don't know what Tesla's paying on average across all suppliers. With that said, we do know that around December, Tesla's all-in contract price was probably around $30,000 per ton for the Australian mine, Chinese refined pathway for lithium hydroxide. At the same time, of course, it was around $60,000 to $70,000 on the spot market. So Tesla was getting more than a $30,000 discount thanks to contract pricing. As a side note, most lithium contracts are partially indexed against the spot market with a 3-6 month rolling average. So movements in contract pricing typically lag 3-6 months behind the spot market.
然而，目前两者都能获得较大的利润，因为锂需求增长速度超过了锂提炼和采矿能力，即供应短缺。但正如我刚才所说，特斯拉通过私下合同购买锂羟化物，而不是在现货市场上购买。不幸的是，由于特斯拉与多个供应商签订了锂合同，并且这些合同是私密的，我们不知道特斯拉在所有供应商间的平均支付价格。但我们知道，在去年12月左右，特斯拉的全包合同价格可能约为每吨3万美元，适用于澳大利亚矿山、中国锂羟化物的提炼途径。同时，当然，现货市场价格约为6万到7万美元。因此，由于合同定价，特斯拉获得了超过3万美元的折扣。另外值得一提的是，大多数锂合同部分与现货市场挂钩，以3-6个月的滚动平均值为基准。因此，合同定价通常滞后于现货市场3-6个月。
Taking into account the rolling average, Tesla was still probably seeing contract prices well above $30,000 per ton in the first and second quarter despite falling prices on the spot market. That's because prices didn't start coming back to earth until the first quarter, which was 3-6 months ago.
考虑到滚动平均值，尽管现货市场价格下跌，但特斯拉在第一季度和第二季度可能仍然看到合同价格远高于每吨3万美元。这是因为价格直到三到六个月前的第一季度才开始回落。
But getting back on topic with margins, based on a $30,000 per ton lithium contract price in December, what would the margins look like for the miner and the refiner? Again, it's difficult to say because they're private contracts. However, let's assume that the refining margins remain the same as they were on the spot market and we only adjust the margin for the mined material. That is, like the previous scenario, we'll assume that the refiner still charges $15,000 per ton for refining and pockets $10,000 in profit. But for the mined material, instead of getting $7,000 per ton, the miner only gets around $2,100 per ton. The result is the same 67% margin for the refiner, but the miner still comes out ahead with a 72% margin. So even at contract pricing and giving the refiner the benefit of the doubt, the mining companies are still currently getting higher margins than the refiners. That's not always the case and there have been times in the past when refiners saw larger margins than refiners, like in 2020. But currently, mining margins are higher because mining is the larger bottleneck.
但是回到利润率的话题上，根据12月份每吨3万美元的锂合同价格来看，矿商和精炼商的利润率将会是怎样的呢？再次强调，由于这些是私人合同，很难确定。然而，假设精炼利润率与现货市场上持平，我们只调整矿产材料的利润率。也就是说，与前面的情景类似，我们假设精炼商仍然每吨收费1.5万美元进行精炼，并获得1万美元的利润。但是对于矿产材料来说，矿商只能获得每吨2100美元，而不是每吨7000美元。结果是精炼商的利润率仍然为67%，但矿商的利润率达到了72%。因此，即使按合同价格计算并对精炼商持保留意见，采矿公司目前仍然获得比精炼商更高的利润率。这并不总是如此，过去有过精炼商获得比采矿商更高利润率的时候，比如2020年。但目前，采矿利润率更高，因为采矿是更大的瓶颈。
As a side note, some lithium miners integrate lithium refining into the mining operation, which is expected to become more commonplace over time as the industry matures. It's because it increases the end-to-end efficiency of lithium production and allows the miner to capture more profit. It also means whether mining or refining experience an over or under-supplied market in the future, integrated operations can generate a good profit margin in most scenarios. Furthermore, it means that the differentiation Elon highlighted between mining and refining may become less relevant over time because the miner and refiner will be the same company.
顺便提一句，一些锂矿工将锂精炼工艺整合到采矿操作中，随着行业的成熟，这种做法预计会变得更加普遍。这是因为它增加了锂生产的端到端效率，并允许矿工获得更多的利润。这也意味着无论是采矿还是精炼市场在未来出现过度供应或供应不足，整合的运营都能在大多数情况下创造良好的利润率。此外，这也意味着埃隆强调的采矿和精炼之间的差异在未来可能变得不那么相关，因为采矿工和精炼商将会是同一家公司。
Other way, currently, lithium miners are holding all the chips. Whether they sell their lithium on the open market at a high spot price to an independent refiner or sell it on contract and refine it themselves, they're scooping up a huge profit margin. And that'll continue as long as the demand for mined lithium continues to exceed supply, which will likely be the case for most of the decade.
换个角度来说，目前锂矿商占据了所有的优势。无论是以高市场价格将锂销售给独立的精炼厂商，还是按合同出售并自行精炼，他们都能够获得巨大的利润空间。只要对于开采锂的需求继续超过供应，这种情况在大部分时间里都将持续存在，这很可能会持续到本十年的大部分时间。
While we're on the topic of lithium margins and pricing, as per Tesla's Q1 earnings call, in the past, they were able to take advantage of low lithium pricing and lock it in with fixed price contracts. Now that prices are coming back down to Earth, they again intend to lock in lithium prices into the latter half of the decade. The question is, will those again be fixed price contracts and how long are the contracts expected to last? There really isn't a clear answer because it depends on the lithium supplier. But we do know that Tesla's negotiating position isn't going to be as strong in this round of negotiations. That's because even though lithium prices have dropped, there's more competition in the lithium market now than there was at any time between 2018 and 2021, which would have been the last time many of these contracts were negotiated.
在谈到锂边际和定价的问题上，根据特斯拉的一季度盈利电话会议，过去他们能够利用低廉的锂定价并通过固定价合同锁定价格。现在随着价格回归正常水平，他们再次打算将锂价格锁定到本十年后半段。问题是，这些合同是否仍然是固定价合同，合同预计持续多长时间？没有一个明确的答案，因为这取决于锂供应商。但我们知道特斯拉在本轮谈判中的谈判立场不会像在2018年至2021年之间的任何时间那样强劲。这是因为尽管锂价格有所下降，但现在锂市场上的竞争比过去任何时候都更激烈，而这些合同的最后一次谈判可能是在这段时间内进行的。
With all that said, we can take some guidance from this slide from Alba-Marl, which is one of Tesla's largest suppliers. By the end of this year, Alba-Marl intends to sell more of their lithium on the spot market and completely eliminate long-term fixed price contracts in favor of long-term variable contracts, long-term meaning two to five years, which would carry these contracts into the latter half of the decade. Within those long-term variable contracts, companies like Alba-Marl and Tesla will build price floors and ceilings into the contract to protect both parties from large price swings. However, the fact that Alba-Marl is moving away from fixed price contracts gives us an indication of where they think lithium prices had it in the longer term, which is up. That is, Alba-Marl also expects lithium to remain in short supply for the rest of the decade and variable pricing gives them a chance to maximize their profits. They can negotiate that because their bargaining power is increasing. So yes, although Tesla might be able to lock in some fixed price contracts with some suppliers to reduce their exposure to higher prices, an increasing portion of their lithium contracts will be exposed to spot market index pricing. That means even with contract pricing, they'll be paying a higher margin penalty for lithium than they ever have in the past.
说了这么多，我们可以从Alba-Marl的幻灯片中得到一些指导，Alba-Marl是特斯拉最大的供应商之一。今年年底，Alba-Marl打算在现货市场上销售更多的锂，并完全取消长期固定价格合同，取而代之的是长期可变价格合同，长期意味着两到五年，这将使这些合同延续到本十年后半期。在这些长期可变价格合同中，像Alba-Marl和特斯拉这样的企业将在合同中设定价格上下限，以保护双方免受大幅度价格波动的影响。然而，Alba-Marl放弃固定价格合同的事实告诉我们他们认为库存价格会在较长时间内上涨。也就是说，Alba-Marl预计在本十年的剩余时间内，锂仍将紧缺，可变定价给他们提供了最大化利润的机会。他们可以通过谈判来实现这一点，因为他们的议价能力正在增强。所以，尽管特斯拉可能能够与某些供应商锁定一些固定价格合同以减少其面临的高价格风险，但他们越来越多的锂合同将面临现货市场指数定价。这意味着即使通过合同定价，他们支付的锂价格的利润率也比以往任何时候都要高。
Now that we've covered the margins for lithium refining versus mining, let's look at the potential for scaling. Rather than doing a deep dive on the players in the lithium refining industry and the technical challenges of lithium refining, all provide aggregate data and the timeframes involved.
现在我们已经探讨了锂提炼与采矿的利润率，让我们来看一下扩大规模的潜力。与其对锂提炼行业中的参与者和锂提炼的技术挑战进行深入探讨，不如提供总体数据和所需的时间框架。
As with other topics in the video, if more depth is needed, I can follow up with a specific video on refining that walks through the gritty engineering details and scaling plans of each refiner. Onscreen is a forecast for global lithium processing capacity complements of rice-dad energy.
和视频中其他话题一样，如果需要更深入的探讨，我可以制作特定的视频来详细介绍每个提炼厂的工程细节和规模化计划。屏幕上显示的是来自莱斯达能源的全球锂处理能力预测。
The dark blue bars are announced nameplate capacity and the light blue bars are anticipated demand based on the 1.6 degree UN climate scenario. The UN scenarios are a topic for another day, but as shown by this graph, based on that climate scenario, rice-dad is forecasting 6.4 terawatt hours of total battery demand by 2030, which is much more aggressive than most analyst houses.
深蓝色的条形图表示宣布的装机容量，浅蓝色的条形图则表示根据1.6摄氏度的联合国气候情景所预测的需求量。联合国的气候情景是个另外的话题，但从这个图表可以看出，基于这个气候情景，赖斯达预测到2030年总需求将达到6.4太瓦时，这比大多数分析机构的估计要更具侵略性。
That is, they aren't softballing it on production demand for lithium refining on their lithium supply and demand graph. Despite that, as you can see, announced nameplate capacity far exceeds demand. For example, in 2023, the announced nameplate capacity is equivalent to 2.1 million tons of lithium carbonate. That's against 880,000 tons of demand for an implicit utilization of 42%.
也就是说，在他们的锂供需图表中，他们并没有在锂精炼的生产需求方面轻易放水。尽管如此，正如你所见，宣布的名义产能远远超过需求。例如，在2023年，宣布的名义产能相当于210万吨碳酸锂。而实际需求只有88万吨，暗含的利用率为42%。
Implicit utilization is simply calculated by dividing production demand by capacity. The actual utilization will be higher. What do I mean by that? Nameplate capacity is the maximum potential output of a factory, but due to downtime, production ramps and yield losses, the actual utilization is much higher.
隐含利用率的计算方法是将生产需求除以产能。实际利用率会更高。那么我指的是什么？装机容量是工厂的最大潜在产量，但由于停机时间、生产过程的逐渐加速和产量损失，实际利用率要远高于装机容量。
Additionally, sometimes low quality lithium needs to be reprocessed to reach battery grade or converted from lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide. So even though implicit utilization is around 42%, my understanding is that actual utilization is probably around 80-90%.
此外，有时需要对低质量的锂进行再加工，以达到电池级别，或将碳酸锂转化为氢氧化锂。因此，即使隐性利用率约为42%，我认为实际利用率可能在80-90%左右。
With that said, it still leaves spare lithium refining capacity of about 10-20% this year and in the next several years. What about later in the decade? The implicit utilization does creep upwards to the 50-60% range, but that likely won't be an issue for two reasons.
话虽如此，今年和未来几年的剩余锂精炼能力仍然约为10-20%。那么在这个十年之后呢？隐含的利用率确实会逐渐提高到50-60%的范围，但可能不会成为问题，这有两个原因。
First, it only takes about two years to build a lithium refinery and about four years to get from planning to volume production. That is, if refining capacity does look like it'll come up short later in the decade due to an unexpected volume of mined lithium, there's still plenty of time for more refining capacity to be announced and built.
首先，建设一个锂矿石精炼厂只需要大约两年时间，从规划到开始大规模生产则大约需要四年。也就是说，如果在接下来的十年中，由于发现更多未预料到的锂矿石储量导致精炼能力不够，仍然有足够的时间来宣布和建设更多的精炼能力。
Second, implicit utilization already reached 65% last year, so we already saw a worse lithium refining crunch last year than we're expecting to see later in the decade. So if there appears to be plenty of refining capacity coming online at a global level, and there's still plenty of time to build more refining capacity before the end of the decade, why is Tesla pushing for more refining capacity?
其次，去年隐含的利用率已经达到了65％，所以我们已经看到了比预计到本十年末期更严重的锂矿精炼危机。所以，如果全球范围内似乎有大量的精炼能力上线，而在本十年末期之前还有足够的时间建设更多的精炼能力，那么为什么特斯拉还要推动更多的精炼能力呢？
There are several potential reasons, but for me, three stick out as the most likely. First, Tesla has specific requirements that the market may not be able to meet at the supply levels and price that Tesla needs it.
有几个潜在的原因，但对我来说，有三个最有可能。首先，特斯拉有特定的要求，市场可能无法在特斯拉需要的供应水平和价格上满足这些需求。
What do I mean by that? The rice stack graph shows aggregate demand for all lithium chemicals. As I said earlier, there are actually several spot markets for the different types and grades of lithium.
我是什么意思呢？米堆图表显示了所有锂化学品的总需求。正如我之前所说的，实际上有几个不同类型和等级的锂在不同的现货市场上交易。
High purity lithium hydroxide is the only chemical that can be used to produce the high nickel cathodes that are used in Tesla's 2170 and 4680 battery cells. Lithium hydroxide is more difficult to produce than lithium carbonate, so it tends to be more expensive and more difficult to source.
高纯度的氢氧化锂是唯一能用于生产特斯拉2170和4680电池单元中的高镍正极材料的化学品。氢氧化锂的生产比碳酸锂更困难，因此它往往更昂贵且更难以获得。
So Tesla could be seeing a bottleneck in their specific supply mix that might not show up in the aggregate data. That bottleneck likely wouldn't affect their LFP battery supply, but could affect the roughly 50% of their vehicles that do use nickel-based battery cells.
特斯拉可能在其特定供应组合中遇到了瓶颈，这可能在总体数据中不会体现出来。这种瓶颈可能不会影响其LFP电池供应，但可能会影响使用镍基电池的约50%的车辆。
In fact, this may be one of the many reasons why Tesla is increasingly shifting to LFP battery cells. The second reason why Tesla may be pushing for lithium refining is that there's expected to be a large amount of mined lithium coming online around 2024 that could overwhelm refiners.
事实上，这可能是特斯拉日益转向LFP电池的众多原因之一。特斯拉推动锂精炼的第二个原因是预计2024年将有大量开采的锂投入市场，可能会使精炼企业疲于应对。
However, that would require two things to happen. First, all of those lithium mines would have to come online on time, which is unlikely. Just like any production ramp, it's more likely that some of the project timelines slip, and they don't hit volume production until 2025 or even 2026.
然而，这需要发生两件事情。首先，所有的锂矿都必须按时投产，这是不太可能的。就像任何生产递增一样，更有可能出现一些项目计划拖延的情况，直到2025年甚至2026年才能达到大规模生产。
Second, at the same time, lithium refiners would have to experience huge setbacks to the 50% growth rate they expect to hit not just this year, but in 2024 and 2025 as well. That is, a sustained shortage of lithium refining capacity could happen, but it's unlikely.
其次，在同一时间，锂精炼商将不得不经历巨大的挫折，以达到他们预期的不仅仅是今年，而且还有2024年和2025年的50%增长率。也就是说，锂精炼能力的持续短缺可能发生，但是这种情况是不太可能的。
With that said, it is possible that refining sees occasional bottlenecks. That's because it's rare for everything in a supply chain to ramp perfectly in unison. With so many mines ramping production, there could be times where it catches the refiners off guard.
话虽如此，精炼过程可能时常遇到瓶颈。这是因为供应链中所有环节能够完美协调增长的情况比较罕见。随着众多矿山提高产量，有时会出现使精炼商猝不及防的情况。
The third reason why Tesla is pushing for more lithium refining may be related to regionalization. Besides aggregating lithium carbonate and hydroxide, the rice that graph doesn't break down refining capacity by region. Lithium chemicals can be shipped around the world for processing, but it's not ideal. At the groundbreaking for Tesla's new lithium refinery in Texas, Turner Caldwell said that the major focus of the refinery was regionalizing the lithium supply chain.
特斯拉推动更多锂提炼的第三个原因可能与地区化有关。除了聚集碳酸锂和氢氧化锂，该图表未按地区细分提炼能力。锂化学品可以运往全球进行加工，但这并非理想情况。在特斯拉新锂提炼厂在德克萨斯州的破土典礼上，特纳·卡德威尔德表示该提炼厂的主要重点是将锂供应链地区化。
Before that event, Ellie in space contacted me and we worked shop some questions for Drew Baglino. Ellie did get a chance to speak with Drew and she posted the interview for her Twitter subscribers and gave me permission to share part of the interview here. For the rest, subscribe to Ellie on Twitter.
在那个事件之前，太空中的Ellie和我取得了联系，我们商讨了一些问题供Drew Baglino回答。Ellie确实有机会与Drew交谈，并将这次采访发布给她的Twitter订阅者，并授权我在这里分享其中的一部分内容。至于剩下的部分，请在Twitter上订阅Ellie。
Drew Baglino confirmed regionalization has several benefits for Tesla. First, it improves the feedback and learning loop for the lithium supply chain. Second, it reduces logistics costs. Lithium usually has to be shipped from Australia or South America to China and then back to other parts of the world for use in batteries, which is expensive and wasteful. Third, tax credits from the recently passed inflation reduction act will help drive down the cost of lithium production in the US.
Drew Baglino确认，区域化对特斯拉有几个好处。首先，它可以提高锂供应链的反馈和学习效应。其次，它能够降低物流成本。锂通常需要从澳大利亚或南美洲运输到中国，然后再回运到世界其他地区用于电池生产，这既昂贵又浪费。第三，最近通过的通胀减缩法案中的税收抵免将有助于降低美国锂生产的成本。
However, there are two other things that Drew didn't mention. First, the bulk of lithium refining capacity is in China. So if Tesla wants to be the master of their own destiny, they need to break that monopoly. If Tesla can establish a lithium refining beachhead in the US and in doing so encourage others to do the same, it'll help accomplish that. Second, the talent pool for lithium refining in the US is small. Tesla's lithium refinery will incubate a US-based talent pool for lithium refining. If some of those engineers are ambitious, they can start their own lithium refining companies in the US and take some of the load off of Tesla.
然而，德鲁没有提到另外两个问题。首先，大部分的锂精炼能力都集中在中国。所以，如果特斯拉想要掌握自己的命运，他们需要打破这个垄断。如果特斯拉能在美国建立起一个锂精炼基地，并同时鼓励其他公司效仿，这将有助于实现这个目标。其次，美国在锂精炼方面的人才储备很少。特斯拉的锂精炼工厂将培养出一批在美国的锂精炼人才。如果其中一些工程师对事业有雄心，他们可以在美国创办自己的锂精炼公司，从而分担特斯拉的负担。
With all that in mind, if Tesla wants more entrepreneurs to get into lithium refining, their words might have greater impact if they provided insights into which region that bottle neck is in and what type of lithium chemical. That's because there appears to be plenty of refining capacity in the pipeline and it can be brought online more quickly than lithium mines. More on that in a moment.
考虑到这一切，如果特斯拉希望更多的企业家参与到锂精炼行业中来，他们的话语可能会产生更大的影响力，如果他们能提供对瓶颈所在地区和锂化学品种类的洞察。这是因为目前有大量的精炼能力正在筹备中，并且它可以比锂矿更快地投产。稍后我们将再详细探讨这一点。
Although Tesla's comments do draw attention to lithium refining, and that's somewhat helpful in itself, money talks. So the one factor that's most likely to increase lithium production in the US is the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for battery materials.
尽管特斯拉的评论确实引起了对锂提炼的关注，这本身也有一定的帮助作用，但最重要的因素还是金钱。因此，最有可能促进美国锂产量增加的因素是《通胀减缓法案》对电池材料的税收抵免。
Either way, if lithium refining capacity is tighter than the forecasts indicate and Tesla's force to build more in-house refining capacity, I view that as a positive. That's because it'll dramatically reduce logistics costs, give them access to Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, and reduce the software-like margins that they're paying to lithium refiners, all of which will reduce the bill of materials for battery cell production.
无论如何，如果锂提炼能力比预测所示更加紧缺，而特斯拉强制自建更多内部提炼能力，我认为这是一个积极的情况。因为这将大大降低物流成本，使其获得通胀减少法案税收抵免，并减少其向锂提炼厂商支付的类似软件的边际成本，所有这些都将减少电池单体生产成本。
That's important because the bill of materials for battery cell production has increased from 40% to 70 to 80% of the cost of a battery cell since 2015 due to improvements in battery cell manufacturing, which will continue. And within the bill of materials in the last three years, the price of lithium alone made up between 9 to 44% of the total bill of materials.
这很重要，因为自2015年以来，电池芯片生产的材料清单已从占电池芯片成本的40%上升至70至80%，原因是电池芯片制造方面的改进不断进行。在过去三年的材料清单中，独自锂的价格就占据了总材料清单的9%至44%。
Telling that up, vertically integrating on lithium refining would save between 2 to 12% of the cost of a battery cell. Let's say 7% on average. Battery cells this year will probably cost on average around 110 to $120 per kilowatt hour. If Tesla gets their cells cheaper at around $100 per kilowatt hour, that would mean a savings of around $7 per kilowatt hour from refining alone, which would be costing Tesla over $1 billion per year.
垂直整合锂精炼将节省电池单体成本的2到12％，平均约为7％。今年的电池单体平均价格可能在每千瓦时110到120美元之间。如果特斯拉能够以每千瓦时约100美元的较低价格购得电池单体，那将意味着仅通过精炼就能够每千瓦时节省约7美元，这将为特斯拉每年节省超过10亿美元。
Beyond that, Tesla's goal is to build at least one terawatt hour of in-house battery production in the US by 2030. At $7 a kilowatt hour, in-house lithium refining would be worth $7 billion per year, which at a PE ratio of 30 would be worth $210 billion of market cap or $70 per share. That is, vertically integrating on battery materials, even just lithium refining is a seriously worthwhile endeavor.
除此之外，特斯拉的目标是到2030年在美国内部建立至少一太瓦时的电池生产能力。以每千瓦时7美元的价格计算，内部锂提炼每年将价值70亿美元，按30倍市盈率计算，则市值达到了2100亿美元，每股价值70美元。这意味着，即使只是在电池材料领域，例如锂提炼，垂直整合也是一个非常值得投入的努力。
In summary, although margins are high for lithium refining, the margins for lithium mining are higher. Furthermore, there appears to be enough lithium refining capacity on the market to maintain healthy supply growth well into the second half of the decade.
简而言之，尽管锂精炼的利润较高，但锂矿开采的利润更高。此外，市场上似乎有足够的锂精炼能力，可以在本十年的下半期保持良好的供应增长。
Although there are several circumstances where there is a potential for lithium mining to outpace refining, it doesn't appear to be the fundamental bottleneck for the growth of lithium supply.
虽然在一些情况下锂矿开采可能超过了提炼的速度，但这似乎不是储量增长的根本瓶颈。
Finally, regardless of whether the fundamental bottleneck is or isn't lithium refining, the financial benefits of vertically integrating into lithium refining is worth Tesla's time to say the least.
最后，无论基本瓶颈是否是锂精炼，垂直整合锂精炼业务的财务收益对特斯拉来说都是值得一试的。
That's all for today, but before I close out the video, as I said at the beginning of the video, if you can, toss a coin to your witcher. The information I've provided today is, to my knowledge, the most comprehensive video on lithium supply out there.
今天就到这里，但在结束视频之前，就像我在视频开始时所说的，如果你能的话，请给你的猎魔人投一枚硬币。根据我所了解，今天我提供的信息是关于锂供应最详尽的视频。
Other reports that are available on the market can cost thousands of dollars, and by comparison, if this video does well, I expect it to make less than $1,000 from YouTube ad revenues. It's the supporters who contribute directly that make the channel possible.
其他市场上可获得的报告可能需要花费数千美元，相比之下，如果这个视频表现良好，我预计它从YouTube广告收入中获得的利润将不到1000美元。是直接支持者的捐赠使得这个频道得以存在。
A special thanks to Johnny Nye in house. For your generous support of the channel, my YouTube members, Twitter subscribers, and all the patrons listed in the credits.
特别感谢Johnny Nye先生对我们频道的慷慨支持。感谢您对我的YouTube会员、Twitter关注者，以及所有在片尾致谢中列出的赞助者们的支持。