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Camo Cybertruck, Tesla Tweaks Pricing, France Courts Musk, TSLA Streak Ends

发布时间 2023-06-14 23:51:30 来源

Hey everybody Rob Mayward here and today we've got some new shots of the Cybertruck doing some testing near Fremont. We've also got some small tweaks to Tesla pricing, some news on France and Tesla, those conversations seem to continue and a few other items as well.

大家好，我是Rob Mayward，今天我们有一些新的Cybertruck测试镜头在弗里蒙特附近进行。我们还将调整一些特斯拉的价格，有关法国和特斯拉的一些消息，这些谈话似乎还在继续，以及其他一些项目。

Alright, starting off with the stock, end of an era, today Tesla finishing down 3.0% closing at $256.79, the Nasdaq today up for 10% so the 13th streak, 13th day historic streak for Tesla, sadly comes to an end even though the Nasdaq did finish today in the positive. We could not survive the FOMC meeting and J-POW press conference. So you can see Tesla floating with the green throughout most of the day right around the time of the Fed statement release. Unfortunately, saw a big drop in the market, Tesla participating in that as well and just couldn't quite recover throughout the rest of the day. But we'll talk about that FOMC meeting in a second, we do have quite a bit of macro news stuff today or macro news today.

好的，首先开始说股票方面的事情，这是一个时代的结束，今天特斯拉下跌了3.0%，收盘价为256.79美元，纳斯达克指数今天上涨了10%，所以特斯拉历史上的第13次连续涨势，13天的历史性连续上涨势头，可惜在纳斯达克成功收盘的情况下，结束了。我们无法在美联储委员会会议和J-POW的新闻发布会中成功挺过来。所以你可以看到，特斯拉在大部分时间里都和市场一样飘绿，特别是在联邦声明发布的时候，不幸的是，市场大幅下跌，特斯拉也参与其中，而且在接下来的时间里也无法完全恢复。但是，我们会在接下来的话题中谈论这次美联储委员会会议，今天我们有很多宏观经济新闻。

First, the PPI or producer price index following the CPI yesterday, so the headline number year over year, only up 1.1% looks like expectations somewhere around 1.5%, so coming in below expectations, which is nice to see and you can see how that's trended for the last few months, continuing to fall significantly.

首先，昨天的CPI指数后，PPI或生产者价格指数，因此头条数字同比仅增长1.1％，看起来与1.5％左右的预期相符，因此低于预期，这是好事，你可以看到它在过去几个月中的趋势，持续显着下降。

And then on a month over month basis, only up 2.0% which is right around in the range that you wanted to be, and sorry that was for core headline first, core here for the month over month. So again, right in the range you want to see and has been pretty consistently sort of around that level over the last four to five months. So pretty good report, I would say for the CPI and that led into the FOMC meeting.

然后，按月份计算，核心指数上涨了2.0%，正好在您所希望的范围内。对了，这是每月的核心指数。所以，它正好在您想看到的范围内，并且在过去四到五个月里一直保持在这个水平上。所以我认为这个CPI报告非常好，它引入了FOMC会议。

Let me one second here, looking a little bright on this camera. Okay, so going into the FOMC meeting, as we can see the statement here, the Fed did pause interest rates for the first time since March 2022. So about 15 months or so, since we had a meeting where there was not an interest rate increase, the FOMC statement not filled with a lot of changes, really just changing the language about holding the rate, but continuing to assess things as things develop, whether or not interest rates will need to be further increased from here.

让我看一下镜头，有点亮。好的，关于FOMC会议，我们可以看到声明，联邦储备委员会自2022年3月以来首次暂停了利率。如此约15个月左右，自那以后，我们没有见过没有加息的会议，FOMC声明没有太多变化，只是改变了有关保持利率的语言，但在事情发展时继续评估事情，无论利率是否需要从现在进一步提高。

So again, not too much there in the statement, though they did publish an updated summary of economic projections. We're looking at March here. So you can see that for 2023, median interest rate expectations were somewhere around, you know, five and a half, five and a quarter percent there. Now you can see that those have increased.

这里并没有太多陈述，但他们发布了一份经济预测的更新摘要。这里我们主要关注2023年的利率预测，中位数预期可能在5.5％到5.25％之间。不过现在你会发现这些预期已经上升了。

So the scale bumping up to 7% here, and this may be increasing up to about a 5.6% median. So a slight increase in where the Fed views interest rates going, which I think was the primary driver of the stock, you know, stock market declines shortly after this release, despite the pause, which as we've talked about was widely expected. So, you know, we've talked a lot about this. These summaries of economic projections have not proven to be the best forecasters of where interest rates ultimately end up going.

这里的规模可能会增加到7％，中位数可能会增加到约5.6％。联邦储备委员会对利率走势的预期略有提高，这可能是股市在发布后不久下跌的主要驱动因素，尽管如我们所讨论的那样，此次暂停是被广泛预期的。因此，我们已经谈了很多关于这个问题。这些经济预测摘要并未证明是利率最终走势的最佳预测者。

Certainly, if you look back at these over the last, you know, year or so, not going to be a great guide. So I think the market may be just taking advantage of some of the volatility that this presents, but I don't know that it's putting a lot of weight necessarily into these sort of median projections. So we'll see, as part of the conference, let's just pull up a couple of comments here. Powell did say that they didn't make any decisions regarding future meetings, no discussion about alternating meetings.

“在过去一年左右的时间里，回顾这些可能并没有太大的指导意义。所以我认为市场可能只是利用这种波动性，但我不知道市场是否会将很多重量放在这些中位预测上。因此，我们将看到，在会议的一部分中，让我们挑选一些评论。Powell确实说他们没有就未来会议做出任何决定，没有讨论交替开会的事情。” 这段话的意思是，过去一年的情况可能不能很好地指导市场，因此市场可能只是利用市场波动。特别是在中位预测方面，市场可能不会非常重视。此外，在这次会议上，Powell表示他们没有就未来会议做出任何决定，也没有讨论交替开会的事情。

So pause now and then an increase next time. But obviously we can see from the summary of economic projections, that's kind of their expectation. He did kind of slip up at one point and said, I think the skip makes sense. So implying that, you know, skip and then maybe increase next time. But he said, then he corrected himself, said he shouldn't say skip. So kind of interesting to see that. And then he said there's really only the earliest signs of disinflation in non housing services, an area of inflation that he's been talking about for a while. So starting to see a little bit of that, but again, continue to reiterate that the process is going to take time. So it was kind of the summaries, the summary of the FOMC comments today.

现在先暂停，下一次再增加。但从经济预测总结中，我们可以看到这是他们的预期。他在某个时候有点口误，说，我觉得跳过可能有道理。所以暗示着跳过然后下一次可能增加。但他随后改正自己，说他不应该说跳过。真的只有非住房服务领域中通货紧缩的最早迹象，这是他一直在谈论的通胀领域。开始有一点这样的迹象，但仍然反复强调这个过程需要时间。这就是今天FOMC评论的摘要。

But we're through it now, kind of a crazy week from a macroeconomic perspective, but hopefully a little bit more, you know, at least a little bit less news for the rest of the week. Alright, getting into Tesla news, we'll start off with a price tweak on the Model Y.

但是现在我们已经度过了这个阶段，从宏观经济的角度来看，这是一个有些疯狂的一周，但希望本周剩下的时间至少能够有点少一点的新闻噪音。好，我们来谈谈特斯拉的消息吧，我们首先要谈到的就是 Model Y 的价格微调。

So the sort of standard range or all-wheel drive version, you know, Tesla's got stopped calling them that, but the lowest range Model Y, which is the 4680 version out of Texas, prices been increased by $250. So if we look at our price tracking table, you can see that here. It's the only price change this time around. So obviously a pretty small tweak, but it does ever so slightly push things a little bit more mixed wise, probably up to these other vehicles, long range and performance.

此处的triple backticks指的是以下一段话的格式： ``` So the sort of standard range or all-wheel drive version, you know, Tesla's got stopped calling them that, but the lowest range Model Y, which is the 4680 version out of Texas, prices been increased by $250. So if we look at our price tracking table, you can see that here. It's the only price change this time around. So obviously a pretty small tweak, but it does ever so slightly push things a little bit more mixed wise, probably up to these other vehicles, long range and performance. ``` 以上内容的意思是：特斯拉的标准和四轮驱动版本已经被停用，现在最低续航版Model Y（来自德克萨斯州的4680版本）的价格已经上涨了250美元。如果我们查看价格跟踪表，就可以看到这一点了。这次唯一的价格变化就是这个。显然，这是一个非常小的调整，但它稍微有点抬高了长续航和高性能车辆的价格，使它们更为接近混合类型的车辆。

And then obviously if this is one of Tesla's highest volume offerings, which presumably it would be, that obviously drives a little bit of extra margin on those cars themselves. Now how much that results versus Tesla may be providing some discounts on inventory vehicles remains to be seen, as we've talked about quite a few times. But as we head into the end of the quarter, just the last couple of weeks here, good to see Tesla having enough confidence to up-pricing on one of the most popular vehicle configurations with this opening price point Model Y. So I think positive to see that.

———以下为翻译内容———— 如果这是特斯拉的最畅销车型之一，那显然会在这些车型上增加一些额外的利润。现在这可能会导致特斯拉在库存车辆上提供一些折扣，这个问题我们已经讨论过很多次了，因此具体区别还有待观察。但是在本季度即将结束的几周内，看到特斯拉有足够的信心在最受欢迎的车型配置中提高价格，这点是好的。因此我认为这是一个积极的信号。

Obviously we talked previously about Tesla lowering the loot box or referral rewards for the Model 3 and the Model Y, which I thought was interesting again, also heading into quarter end. So at least a couple of positive signs there in the recent days on demand for at least the Model Y approaching benefit. Now we also have a tweet here from Chris Zhang, wouldn't put a ton of stock in this, but apparently sources are also indicating that Tesla China will soon begin a new round of price increases as well. So again, who knows, we get a lot of faulty information out of China a lot, so we'll see if anything comes of that.

很明显我们之前讨论过特斯拉降低Model 3和Model Y的赏金或推荐奖励，这对于四季度尤其重要。最近几天至少有一些积极的迹象表明Model Y的需求正在增加。另外，我们还有Chris Zhang的一条推文，虽然不应太过相信，但显然有消息来源表明特斯拉中国即将开始新一轮的价格上涨。所以，我们不一定会相信中国的所有信息，我们会等待看看是否有什么进展。

All right, getting into the cyber truck, so interesting wrap here from Tesla. Actually in the vehicle manufacturing industry there's prototypes out and about testing from time to time and pretty heavily camouflaged with wraps and I think Tesla maybe just paying some homage to that and joking around a little bit here with a camouflage wrap on the cyber truck as obviously we've all seen fairly well-developed prototypes and don't expect a ton of changes.

好的，现在进入特斯拉的狂热卡车，这里的包裹非常有趣。实际上，在汽车制造业中，经常有原型车进行测试，通常外部完全隐藏，使用伪装套件，我认为特斯拉可能只是向这方面致敬，并在这辆狂热卡车上开个小玩笑，显然我们都已经看到了相当成熟的原型车，并不指望有太多变化。

Maybe there are some things Tesla's trying to hide a little bit, but to me comes across a little bit more as a joke. They even ran it through a drive-through for In-N-Out out there in California and Elon replied to this saying it's a tradition. So I don't know, maybe tradition for like a release candidate or production beta type of vehicle, not sure exactly what he's meaning by a tradition, maybe just a tradition to go to In-N-Out Burger, not sure. But kind of interesting to see this, you know, a little bit more maybe a finalized version and out there testing and making some noise and getting some attention probably pretty intentionally here from Tesla.

也许特斯拉想隐藏一些东西，但我认为这更像是一个笑话。他们甚至把它开到加州的In-N-Out速食店，埃隆回应说这是一种传统。所以我不知道，也许这是一个像发布候选版本或生产测试类型车辆的传统，不确定他所意思的是什么，也许只是去In-N-Out汉堡店的一种传统，不确定。但看到这个真的很有趣，看起来是一个更加完成的版本，并在那里测试,并且显然从特斯拉这里得到了一些关注。

Also gives us a glimpse at how a cyber truck might look with a wrap, obviously a pretty unique wrap but a wrap nonetheless and lets us use our imagination a little bit for what some other wraps could look like which I expect will be, you know, a big thing for the cyber truck as it is only going to come in probably one color as Elon has said before which is nothing. So interesting to see that today.

这段文字展示了一辆用包装膜覆盖的Cyber Truck的可能外观，尽管这是一个非常独特的包装，但它使我们可以稍微发挥一下想象力，看看其他可能的包装风格。考虑到Eelon之前已经说过Cyber Truck仅会提供一种颜色 - 什么颜色都不是，我预计包装膜会成为Cyber Truck的一个重要元素。因此，今天看到这个消息还是很有趣的。

Alright next week we've got some updates on France and Tesla. So we had previously talked about Elon meeting with the French president and apparently they're going to be meeting again, Reuters today reporting that Emmanuel Macron and Elon Musk will be meeting on Friday for the second time in just over a month to talk about a number of things. Macron said I'm going in at that meeting with an agenda.

下周我们将会得到有关法国和特斯拉的更新。我们之前讨论了埃隆与法国总统会面的事情，而今天路透社报道称埃马纽尔·马克龙和埃隆·马斯克将在一个月之内的第二次会面中谈论一些事情。马克龙说：“我会带着议程参加那次会议。”

We're going to talk about artificial intelligence in which he is involved. Digital media regulation framework and then I'll also talk to him about cars, batteries to promote French and European attractiveness and said that it's up to the company to look at these different issues in Europe. So we'll be selling France in terms of whether or not there would be a possible factory location there in France.

我们将要谈论他所参与的人工智能、数字媒体监管框架、以及我也将与他谈论汽车、电池，以促进法国和欧洲的吸引力，并表示这取决于公司是否考虑在欧洲处理这些不同的问题。因此，我们将在销售法国方面进行讨论，是否有可能在法国建立工厂。

So interesting to see this. I don't know that people would put France at the top of the contender list but you know two meetings in a month definitely says something and they also had comments from their Minister of Digital Affairs to CNBC who said that quote, it will be great to have a Tesla factory in France. There's been a lot of effort and energy to make sure this is possible and this can happen and added that the you know they've invested in an entire sector for electric batteries and that quote France is the best possible place in Europe to establish the next Tesla factory.

很有趣看到这个。我不知道人们会把法国放在竞争者名单的榜首，但是你知道，一个月内的两次会议肯定说明了一些问题，他们还从他们的数字事务部长那里得到了评论交给了CNBC，他说“在法国设立特斯拉工厂将是很棒的事情”。为了确保这一点能够实现，已经付出了很多努力和精力，并补充说，他们已经投资了整个电动电池领域，并且“法国是欧洲建立下一个特斯拉工厂的最佳可能地点”。

So the it will be great part. I think that's more of just a translation thing not saying that this is something that is you know going forward as obviously says they want to make sure that this is possible and this can happen. But obviously a lot of you know effort time being spent here by France to work with Elon and potentially you know maybe secure a deal with Tesla for a battery factory, a vehicle factory or some other sort of sort of investment which Elon has said..

所以这将是很好的一部分。我认为这更多只是翻译的问题，并不是说这是一件明显正在前进的事情，因为显然他们希望确保这是可能的并且可以发生。但显然，法国正在花费大量努力的时间与埃隆合作，有可能与特斯拉达成电池工厂、车辆工厂或某种其他投资的交易，这正如埃隆所说的一样。

that they probably would invest in some way in France in the past. So we'll see what comes to that hopefully a little bit more information will come out of that on Friday. Also something we should see later this week, Elon tweeting replying to whole Mars blog here saying that FSD beta 11.4.4 should go out towards the end of this week 11.4.3 really just started rolling out some more broad more broadly to customers in the last couple of days. So again we continue to see pretty quick iteration here for new version numbers and hopefully you know obviously the 11.4.3 release notes with the same we'll have to see..

他们过去可能会以某种形式在法国投资。希望有更多的信息会在周五公布。此外，我们还应该在本周晚些时候看到一些关于Elon回复整个火星博客的推文，说FSD beta 11.4.4应该在本周末发布。11.4.3最近几天才开始向更多客户广泛地推出。因此，我们可以看到新版本号的快速迭代，并且希望11.4.3的发布说明与之相同。

if.4 is also the same or you know we're getting a new version with a sort of updated release notes. So it's only keep an eye on there. Then we've got another update on NACS as this continues to sort of waterfall down just a headline only here from Bazinga, Ben Zinga but apparently Mercedes is evaluating a technical implementation for possibly including the NACS in the charging network that they have previously announced that they're developing in North America..

如果版本.4也一样，或者你知道我们正在获得一个带有更新发布说明的新版本。所以只需要关注那里。然后我们有关于NACS的另一个更新，因为它继续向下流淌。这里只有关键信息，来自Bazinga，Ben Zinga，但显然梅赛德斯正在评估技术实现，可能将NACS包括在他们之前宣布正在开发的北美充电网络中。

as well as their locations. So it doesn't necessarily mean that they're working on implementing that into their vehicles. I'm sure they're considering it but this seems to be more of a comment in terms of the charging network that they are developing which you kind of hate to be in that position and make a charging network that's you know only CCS compatible and get down the road in North America and if NACS truly does become the standard you're probably going to have to make some updates to that if you want that network to be really viable. So again we'll continue to follow the developments there for NACS.

这段文字讲述了特斯拉公司开发充电网络的问题。虽然有人提到特斯拉正在考虑使用NACS（一个新的充电标准），但这并不意味着他们正在将其应用于他们的汽车。相反，这似乎更像是一条关于特斯拉正在开发的充电网络的评论。如果他们只支持CCS（现有的充电标准），那么当NACS成为主流标准时，这个网络将变得不可行。因此，我们将继续关注NACS方面的进展。

All right a couple things out of China looks like Tesla is going to be participating in the Shenzhen Auto Show which is starting on Friday. So sometimes these are things these things are a little bit hit or miss. Tesla seems to partake a little bit more in them in China but oftentimes they'll just get these sort of auto shows completely so probably not a ton of news that will come out of that but interesting to see Tesla participating. And then Tesla has apparently denied the rumors that we talked about about Shanghai being a testing ground for FSD. Tesla China apparently told a media outlet..

好的，中国方面有两件事情。看来特斯拉将参加即将于周五开始的深圳车展。这些展会有时会有点好坏参半。特斯拉在中国似乎参与得更多，但通常他们会完全错过这些车展，所以可能不会有太多新闻，但看到特斯拉参与还是很有意思的。而特斯拉似乎已经否认了我们谈到的上海作为FSD测试的传言。特斯拉中国向媒体表示...

there that quote the information is not true end quote. So I mean we've talked a lot about China replies to different media reports. It's tough when you get denials like that because you don't know exactly which part of the report that they're denying it could be a very small piece of it but we had previously talked about how you know it wasn't anything that was wide release maybe just going to some employees and some conversations about you know something beyond that happening at some point. So what the denial is not entirely clear but I'm sure there's at least a little bit of attraction there for FSD.

这里引用的信息不是真实的。我们已经谈论了很多关于中国对不同媒体报道作出回应的话题。当你收到这样的否认时，很难确定他们否认的是报告的哪一部分，可能只是其中一小部分，但我们之前已经讨论过这件事，因为它不是公开发布的，只是在一些员工和一些关于某些事情发生的对话中提到了。所以这个否认不是完全清楚的，但我相信FSD至少有一点吸引力。

We've also got an update from BYD. I haven't been able to verify this with you know other media outlets but Zhang went on Twitter here saying that BYD's executive vice president has said that due to the inflation reduction act the US market is not currently under consideration for the you know expansion of BYD at this time. So obviously it makes it tough if they don't have you know a ton of factories and battery production supply chain set up here in the US with the inflation reduction act so that kind of seems to be what that is alluding to but hopefully that'll you know give some some cushion for Tesla not that they necessarily need it in the US.

我们收到BYD的最新消息。虽然我还没有能够通过其他媒体证实此消息，但张在Twitter上表示，由于通货膨胀减缓法案，目前不考虑将美国市场作为BYD扩张的地点。因此，显然，如果他们在美国没有大量工厂和电池生产供应链的设立，这将变得困难。希望这会为特斯拉提供一些缓冲，尽管他们在美国并不一定需要这样做。

it's a lot more competitive in China with BYD but you know I think what I've kind of presumed is that BYD would maybe come to the US under another brand and maybe a partnership there would make sense. I still think that makes sense so maybe they'll evaluate something like that. Alright and then last couple of things so SpaceX has completed their 200th landing already. I tweeted a couple days ago the video from SpaceX on you know that timeline of all these launches and landings over the year and how those have accelerated to an extreme degree obviously but pretty cool to see them now hit that milestone for the 200th landing of an orbital class rocket and then a couple of quick corrections from yesterday.

“在中国市场，BYD比较有竞争力。但是我认为，BYD可能会以另一个品牌的形式来进入美国市场，此时建立合作伙伴关系是有意义的，我仍然认为这很有意义，所以也许他们会评估这样的合作。最后，SpaceX已经完成了200次着陆。几天前，我在推特上发布了SpaceX的视频，展示了他们在整个年度的各类发射和着陆计划中的时间表，并展示了这些计划的加速度。现在看到他们达到了200次轨道级火箭着陆的里程碑，这非常酷！还有昨天做出的几个小的修正。”

I did misquote the headline month over month CPI numbers so we went through four numbers. One of those was misquoted because unfortunately investing.com had not updated the chart yet so I had quoted the results from April rather than the main number so my apologies for not double checking that but month over month was up one tenth of a percent rather than four tenths of a percent and then the second thing the poll start to should have read this full quote because they said that it's eligible for the $7,500 credit but that apparently is only on the leases so for just normal loan purchase not at least my current understanding is not eligible for the credit on that poll start to.

我错误引用了连续三个月的消费者价格指数数据，因此我们浏览了四个数字。其中一个数字被错误引用了，因为不幸的是，investing.com尚未更新该图表，因此我引用了四月份的结果而不是主要数字，对此我很抱歉，因为我没有进行双重检查，但连续三个月的数据是上升了0.1%而不是0.4%。第二个问题是在调查开始时应该读到完整的引用，因为他们说只有在租约的情况下才有资格享受7500美元的税款抵免，而在普通贷款购买的情况下，我目前的理解是在分期付款上没有资格享受抵扣。

Alright that'll wrap it up for today then so as always thank you for listening make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications you can also find me on twitter at tessellpodcast and we'll see you tomorrow for the Thursday June 15th episode of tessell daily thank you.

好的，今天的节目到这里就结束了，感谢你们一如既往地收听。请确保你已经订阅并开启了通知，你也可以在推特上找到我，我的账号是tessellpodcast。明天我们将会见面，届时会发布6月15日星期四的最新一期tessell daily，再次感谢你们。