Markets Weekly June 10

Hello my friends today is June 10th. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about three things. First we're going to talk about the prospect of the Fed raising their inflation target.

大家好，今天是6月10日。我叫约瑟夫，这是《市场周报》。本周我们将讨论三个问题。首先，我们将谈论美联储提高其通货膨胀目标的前景。

Secondly, we're going to talk about the surprise rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. And lastly, we're going to talk about the prospect of us being in a new bull market.

其次，我们将讨论澳大利亚储备银行和加拿大银行的意外利率上调。最后，我们将谈论我们是否处于一个新的牛市前景。

Okay, starting with the Fed. Now over the past two months, there's been a lot of buzz in the press, about the prospect of global central banks raising their inflation target. Madame Lagarde from the ECB for example, has adjusted that the ECB could raise their inflation target, but only after they get inflation back to their current 2% target.

好的，从美联储开始。在过去的两个月中，媒体上一直有许多关于全球央行提高通胀目标的议论。例如ECB的拉加德女士已经表示，ECB可能会提高其通胀目标，但前提是要将通胀回到当前的2%目标水平。

I think that there's a lot of buzz on central banks potentially raising their inflation target is because inflation is way above their target and they might not be able to get it under control without causing unemployment to spike a lot. Now this is such a debate that we also had in the 1970s.

我认为央行可能会提高通货膨胀目标，因为当前的通货膨胀率已经远高于他们设定的目标值，他们可能无法通过任何方法来控制通货膨胀，而不会造成失业率大幅上升。这个问题在上世纪70年代也有过争论。

Back in the 1970s, inflation was very high and the Fed chair at the time, Arthur Burns, was hiking rates to try to get inflation under control. When he was doing that, a lot of people in Congress and in the press were complaining.

回到20世纪70年代，通货膨胀非常高，当时的联邦储备委员会主席阿瑟·伯恩斯正在加息试图控制通货膨胀。当他这样做时，很多国会议员和媒体人士都在抱怨。

Arthur Burns, very mean person, heard in the economy and raising unemployment. So Arthur Burns was basically constrained. He was not able to tighten monetary policy as much as he would have liked. What we learned in the 1970s though, was that trade-off between inflation and unemployment doesn't necessarily hold in the medium term because at the end of the 1970s, we had high inflation and also high unemployment.

阿瑟·伯恩斯是一个非常刻薄的人，他听到经济出现了问题，并且失业率正在上升。所以伯恩斯基本上受到了限制，他不能像他想要的那样收紧货币政策。然而，我们在1970年代所学到的是，通货膨胀和失业之间的权衡并不一定在中期内成立，因为在1970年代末期，我们既有高通货膨胀率，也有高失业率。

But anyway, people, as we know, don't necessarily learn from history. So we're back to that same debate today again. People don't want the central banks to raise rates a lot because they're afraid that unemployment would go higher. And one way to get central banks to not raise their interest rates a lot is to simply change their inflation target higher.

无论如何，正如我们所知道的，人们不一定从历史中学习。因此，我们又回到了今天同样的辩论。人们不希望中央银行大幅提高利率，因为他们担心失业率会上升。而让中央银行不提高利率的一种方法是将通货膨胀目标设定得更高。

Now, if the Fed were to do that, how would they go about raising inflation target? Well, one way they would definitely not go about doing it is that they would definitely not show up at a press conference and then just tell everyone, hey guys, I've decided that my inflation rate target is going to be 3% instead of 2%.

现在，如果美联储要这样做，他们如何提高通货膨胀目标呢？那么，他们肯定不会用一种方法来达到目标，他们肯定不会出现在新闻发布会上，然后告诉所有人：“嘿，伙计们，我决定将我的通货膨胀目标从2%提高到3%。”

That's definitely not going to happen because according to how central banks think about the world, that will be very destabilizing. So from the central banks perspective, central banks inflation target anchors inflation expectations, which in turn anchors actual inflation.

这绝对不会发生，因为根据中央银行对世界的看法，这将会非常不稳定。从中央银行的角度来看，中央银行的通货膨胀目标锚定通货膨胀预期，进而锚定实际通货膨胀。

Now, that's not necessarily how the world actually works, but that's how they think about it. Now, part of this makes sense to me, but part of it doesn't. It totally makes sense to me that someone's expectations of future inflation impacts their current economic activity. For example, if I'm a corporation and I expect prices to be 10% higher next year, then when I'm setting prices for next year, I'm obviously going to raise my prices by 10%.

现实世界不一定是这样运作的，但这是他们的想法。这其中的一部分对我来说是有道理的，但另一部分就不是了。我完全能理解一个人对未来通货膨胀的期望会影响他们目前的经济活动。例如，假设我是一家公司，我预计明年的物价会上涨10%，那么当我制定明年的价格时，我显然会将价格提高10%。

And if I do that, voila, you get inflation. Or if I'm a consumer and I expect prices to be 10% higher next year than today, then obviously I'm going to go and buy stuff today. And if everyone does this, then well, you get more demand and you get higher actual inflation.

如果我这样做了，就会出现通货膨胀。或者，如果我是消费者，并且预计明年物价会比今天高10％，显然我会去今天买东西。如果每个人都这样做，那就会增加需求，并且得到更高的实际通货膨胀率。

So I do think there's a relationship between inflation expectations and actual inflation. What's not super clear though is whether a central banks inflation target impacts inflation expectations. Honestly, there are surveys that suggest most people have no idea what the Federal Reserve does. And if you look at their recent history, they're not that good at hitting their inflation target anyway.

我确实认为通胀预期和实际通胀之间存在联系。但不是非常清楚的是，央行的通胀目标是否会影响通胀预期。老实说，有调查显示大部分人对美联储的工作一无所知。如果你看看他们最近的历史，他们达到通胀目标的能力也并不是很强。

But besides all that, the Fed thinks that their inflation target has a big impact on inflation expectations. So they can't just will in nearly and raise it suddenly. But a very clever way they could go about doing it was that instead of announcing a change in their inflation target, announced a shift to an inflation band.

除此之外，美联储认为他们的通胀目标对通胀预期有很大的影响。因此，他们不能不顾一切地突然提高这个目标。但是，他们可以采取一个非常聪明的方式，不是宣布改变他们的通胀目标，而是宣布将其转变为一个通胀区间。

And reporting from Pedro de Castile, who was a very good reporter on the Fed, suggests that there are discussions in the Fed suggesting that right now. An inflation band would be, say, instead of the Fed shooting for a 2% inflation target, they shoot for a target range of inflation between 1.5 to 2.5%. Now, this is basically the same as raising their inflation target.

来自报告员佩德罗·德·卡斯蒂利亚的报道显示，美联储内部正在讨论设立通货膨胀带。这意味着，美联储不再仅仅追求2%的通货膨胀目标，而是追求1.5%到2.5%通货膨胀范围的目标。基本上讲，这相当于美联储提高了通货膨胀的目标。

Now, let me give you an example. Why? Now, suppose that inflation is 2.5%. If you have a 2% inflation target, well, 2.5% is above 2%. So obviously you have to do something, maybe raise interest rates. But if you have an inflation band, that is 1.5 to 2.5%, well, 2.5% falls within that band, so mission accomplished, I don't have to do anything.

现在，让我举个例子。为什么呢？ 假设通货膨胀率为2.5％。如果你设定的通货膨胀目标是2％，那么2.5％超过这个目标。所以你必须采取措施，可能是提高利率。但如果你设定的通货膨胀幅度是1.5％到2.5％，那么2.5％就在这个范围内，任务顺利完成，我不必采取任何行动。

So in effect, if we transition to an inflation band, that's very much like raising inflation target, but in a more low key way. In Pedro's article, he cited that by former Vice Chair Clarida thought that this wasn't a good idea we're looking into. And if former Vice Chair Clarida is thinking about this, then you can bet that there are definitely many important people in the Fed that are giving this a serious look. Now, suppose that we have a new inflation band, that's 1% to 3%. That may sound like nothing is changing because it's still centered around 2%, but it would, in effect, be raising the Fed's inflation target to 3% by saying that 3% inflation is acceptable. Now, we won't know the results of the Fed's review. So the Fed periodically reviews its monetary policy framework. I think the next review is due in a couple years, but if you're thinking that the Fed would update there, and inflation target, I think this is how they would go about doing it. We'll find out in a couple years.

实际上，如果我们过渡到一个通胀区间，这很像提高通胀目标，但在更低调的方式下进行。在Pedro的文章中，他引用了前副主席Clarida的观点，认为我们正在研究这并不是一个好主意。如果前副主席Clarida正在考虑这个问题，那么你可以肯定，有许多在美联储中非常重要的人正在认真审视这个问题。现在，假设我们有一个新的通胀区间，为1%至3%。这听起来好像什么都没有改变，因为它仍然以2%为中心，但实际上，这将通过表示3%通胀是可接受的，将美联储的通胀目标提高到3%。现在，我们不知道美联储的审查结果。美联储定期审查其货币政策框架。我认为下一次审查将在几年后进行，但如果你认为美联储会更新其通胀目标，我认为这就是他们会采取的方式。我们将在几年后发现。

Now, let's talk about our second topic, the surprise rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada. Now, just for some context, the RBA and the Bank of Canada, like the Fed, the Fed hyde interest rates aggressively beginning last year, but unlike the Fed, they paused for a bit to take a look and to see what impact their rate hikes were having. And we both came to the conclusion that the rate hikes didn't seem to be working as they expected them to, and so they hyde rates again last week. They both said very similar things, that inflation seems to be higher and more stubborn than we expected.

现在，让我们谈谈我们的第二个主题，澳大利亚储备银行和加拿大银行意外提高利率的问题。为了更好地理解情境，像美联储一样，去年开始，澳大利亚和加拿大的央行也积极加息，但不同于美联储的是，它们暂停了一段时间，以观察加息对经济的影响。两家央行得出的结论相似，即之前的利率提高并没有像他们预期的那样发挥作用，因此他们在上周再次提高了利率。他们都说了类似的话，即通胀似乎比预期更高，而且更加困难。

So the RBA in particular had a really interesting graph. So after the RBA hyde rates, Governor Lowe of the RBA gave a speech the following day discussing the logic behind the recent rate hike. Now, he noted a lot of things, but one thing that said out to me is that it seemed a big part of the decision was that the labor market remained very strong, driving high wage gains, but also driving high unit labor costs. Now, unit labor costs are different from wage gains because they take into account productivity.

澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）的一张图表非常有趣。在RBA调高利率后，RBA的罗夫行长在接下来的一天发表讲话，解释了最近加息背后的逻辑。他提到了很多事情，但让我印象深刻的是，这次决定的一个重要原因似乎是劳动力市场非常强劲，推动了高薪资增长，但也推动了高单位劳动力成本。单位劳动力成本与薪资增长不同，因为它们考虑了生产率的影响。

So, for example, if you're a worker and you get a wage increase, yes, on the surface, it sounds like labor costs are going higher. But if that worker also produces more per hour, then labor costs are not increasing because even though you're paying them more, they're also producing more. So you have to take into their productivity and account as well. But what's happening in Australia is that wages are going higher, but productivity is not really going up. It's actually declining in some cases. So if you have higher wages and declining productivity, you get higher unit labor costs. And in the case of Australia, Governor Lowe shows a very compelling graph that there's a strong relationship in Australia between inflation and unit labor costs. So rising unit labor costs are for shadowing persistently high inflation. And that seems to be a big part in the decision to raise rates again. Their labor market remains very strong.

举个例子来说，如果你是一名工人并且获得了加薪，表面上看起来似乎劳动成本正在上升。但如果这个工人的每小时产出也增加了，那么劳动成本就不会增加，因为即使你支付的工资更高，他们也产出更多。所以你必须考虑到他们的生产力。但澳大利亚正在发生的是，工资在上涨，但生产力并没有真正提高，在某些情况下实际上在下降。因此，如果你有较高的工资和不断下降的生产力，你就会获得更高的单位劳动成本。在澳大利亚的情况下，洛厄州长展示了一个非常有力的图表，表明澳大利亚通胀率与单位劳动成本之间存在强烈的关系。因此，不断上升的单位劳动成本预示着持续高通胀率。这似乎是再次提高利率决策中的重要部分。他们的劳动力市场仍然非常强劲。

Moving to the Bank of Canada, after Canada gave their rate hike decision, Deputy Governor Baudry gave a speech that gave us a bit more context on why they hike rates again. Now, Governor Baudry noted that they hike rates and paused in January, thinking that everything was trending in the right direction. But to their surprise, though, inflation perked back up, services activity remained strong, and even interest rate sensitive sectors like goods purchases and housing seem to be rebounding. So in a word, it didn't seem to be working, and that surprised them, so they hiked rates again.

在加拿大公布加息决定后，加拿大央行副行长鲍德里发表了一次讲话，他解释了加息再次实施的原因。据鲍德里行长介绍，央行曾在一月份加息并暂停，因为他们觉得一切都在朝着正确的方向发展。但出乎意料的是，通货膨胀再次上升，服务行业活动保持强劲，甚至类似商品购买和住房等利率敏感行业似乎正在反弹。总之，情况似乎不太理想，这让他们感到惊讶，因此他们再次加息。

But what was super interesting about Deputy Governor Baudry's speech, and I encourage you to read it, I'll link it to it in the notes below, is that he seems to think that we might be in a fundamental regime change, a higher inflationary world that requires interest rates to say higher for longer. He notes things like de-globalization, increasing investment demand from climate transition stuff, and aging population as some of the factors that are driving, perhaps, structural inflation. And that might suggest that rates are going to say high for longer, that might suggest that we are in a very different world today than we were pre-2020. Now, he's not the only central banker who has mentioned this before, other central bankers across the world have as well, and so that may inform our outlook for how other major central banks will have to behave in the coming months.

副行长巴德里的演讲非常有趣，建议阅读，我会在下面的注释中附上链接。他似乎认为我们可能处于基本的制度变革中，处于一个需要更高利率维持更长时间的更高通货膨胀的世界。他指出一些因素正在推动结构性通胀，如贸易脱钩、气候转型所需的投资需求增加和人口老龄化等。这可能意味着利率将维持高水平更长时间，这可能表明我们今天所处的世界与2020年前的世界非常不同。现在，他不是唯一提到这个问题的中央银行家，世界各地的其他中央银行家也这样做了，这可能会影响我们对其他主要中央银行未来行为的展望。

Now, lastly, let's talk about the idea of whether or not we're in a new bull market. So stocks have risen about 20% from their lows, and many people are thinking that we are in a new bull market. Indeed, I think the cover of Beren's magazine suggests that things are great, you guys should buy stocks, everything's okay, and if you look at stock prices over the past few weeks, they seem to go up every single day. Now, my personal opinion is that we are definitely not in a new bull market, and what I'm seeing in the market is very concerning.

现在，最后让我们谈谈我们是否处于新的牛市的想法。股市已经从低点上涨了约20％，很多人认为我们正在进入新的牛市。事实上，我认为Beren杂志的封面表明一切都很好，你们应该购买股票，一切都没问题，如果你看看过去几周的股票价格，它们似乎每天都在上涨。现在，我的个人意见是我们绝对不是在新的牛市中，我看到的市场情况非常令人担忧。

So, when I look at asset prices, I like to look at it from the perspective of the stance of monetary policy. What I've learned over the past decade is that the biggest and most influential force in the markets are the global central banks, especially the Fed. And the global central banks, they are telling you that they want to stay higher for longer, they want to tight monetary policy, they're not done yet. And, you know, a lot of their tightening is potentially not yet to be felt, so there's often a lag between when monetary policy tight ends and when it's been felt in the economy. Now, I don't know what that lag is, but I'm getting the sense that it's probably not fully felt since we hike rates so rapidly. So, in the coming months, we might have more rate hikes from the Fed, we know we have quantitative tightening ongoing, we know there's a lot of issuance of shoulder securities that are probably going to put upward pressure on interest rates, and we also know that the economy is slowing.

因此，当我观察资产价格时，我喜欢从货币政策的角度来看待。过去十年的经验告诉我，全球央行，尤其是美联储，是市场上最大且最有影响力的力量。全球央行告诉你，他们想要保持宽松的货币政策，他们还没有结束。他们加强货币政策的很多影响可能还没有产生，因此经济感受的滞后期常有。现在，我不知道这个滞后期有多长，但我感觉我们加息速度很快，所以它可能还没有被完全感受到。在未来的几个月里，我们可能会看到更多的美联储加息，而且量化收紧仍在继续，还有大量的肩负债券发行可能会对利率造成上行压力，同时我们也知道经济正在放缓。

So, I don't actually think these are the good ingredients for a new bull market. In my perspective, new bull markets would start once I think the Fed is ready to start easing again. There's a lot of people in the markets who have been placing pretty aggressive bets over the past few months that, you know, the Fed is on the cusp of cutting rates, on the cusp of ending the rate height and cycle. That's actually gone out of the short term interest rate markets, but I think the equity markets are a bit slow to realize that the rest of the market is more in step with the Fed for a higher, for longer stance. So, I don't think we're in a new bull market, I'm very, very cautious of what I see right now, and I suspect that I don't believe we're going to, we're in any risk of a crash or anything like that, but I do think that it warrants caution when everyone is thinking that we're in a new bull market and when stocks only go up, that's a recipe for disaster.

因此，我并不认为这些是新牛市的好条件。我个人认为，只有当美联储准备开始再次放松政策时，新的牛市才会开始。在过去几个月里，有很多投资者在市场上下了非常激进的赌注，认为美联储即将降息，结束利率上升周期。虽然这种想法已经从短期利率市场中消失了，但我认为股票市场还比较慢意识到市场其他方面更符合美联储的更高、更长期的立场。因此，我不认为我们处于一个新的牛市，我非常谨慎地看待眼下的情况。我认为我们并不会面临任何崩盘等风险，但当每个人都认为我们处于一个新的牛市，股票仅会上涨的时候，这往往是灾难的前兆，需要谨慎对待。

Okay, so that's all I prepared for today. If you like what I'm producing, please remember to like and subscribe. And of course, if you're interested in learning more about the markets, check out my free online courses at centralmaine101.com. And this week is an FOMC week, so I'll be back Wednesday to give you my thoughts on what happened at the Fed meeting. Thanks so much for tuning in, talk to you guys soon.

好的，今天我的准备就到这里了。如果您喜欢我的内容，请记得点赞和订阅。当然，如果您对了解市场更感兴趣，可以在centralmaine101.com上查看我的免费在线课程。本周是FOMC会议周，所以我将在周三回来，向您介绍关于联邦储备委员会会议的想法。非常感谢您的关注，我们很快再见！