Cybertruck Supplier Leak / Giga Mexico Prep / Big Regulatory Strides Made ⚡️

A quick update, there will be no video from me tomorrow. On Friday, I have some things I need to attend to around the house. And Monday is my birthday, so if the news day is slow, I may take that time to work on some other things, but we'll see.

简单通知一下，明天我不会发布视频。因为星期五我需要在家里处理一些事情，而且下周一是我的生日，如果新闻比较缓慢，我可能会利用这段时间去做些其他事情，但我们还需再看看。

Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Loomis. So first up today, quick update from yesterday in that benchmark article. The CBO estimate was actually 30 billion, not 7.5. Doing the math, that would be 8 million EVs in total, so just wanted to point out that error. Thank you Riccardo.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人Dylan Loomis。首先今天，我想给大家提供一个快速的更新，关于昨天的基准文章。CBO的估计是实际上是300亿美元，而不是7.5亿美元。通过计算，这将总共达到800万辆电动汽车，所以我只是想指出这个错误。感谢Riccardo。

We shared an anecdote that on 11.4.2 the auto wipers worked perfectly to which Elon said wipers will get super good, I know many people out there are rolling their eyes. That's because this deep rain neural net for the auto wipers at Tesla has been a thing now for almost 4 years. And we should have taken what Elon said back then to heart, takes a surprising amount of deep learning to know when and how fast to move the wipers. So I'm thinking maybe 2 weeks.

我们分享了一个趣闻，即在11.4.2版本中，自动雨刷器运作得非常完美，对此埃隆说，雨刷器将会变得非常优秀，我知道很多人会感到不屑。这是因为特斯拉自动雨刷器的这个深度雨情神经网络已经存在了近4年。我们当时应该听从埃隆的话，因为要想知道何时以及多快运动雨刷器需要大量的深度学习。因此，我认为可能需要两周时间。

We have another spotting of the project highland, do not read anything into the wheels, just for testing. This is a blue variant, most of the time we see a black prototype, but just wanted to pass it along, not really anything new to highlight.

我们又发现了项目高地的另一个出现，不要对车轮产生任何猜测，只是为了测试。这是一个蓝色版本，大多数时候我们看到的是黑色样机，但只是想传达一下，没有什么新的亮点要强调。

We have Reuters reporting that Tesla isn't talks with leaders of the regional government of Valencia, Spain to make an automotive investment. A Spanish newspaper is saying the investment would be a car factory and its total size could reach 4.8 billion dollars. And the very next paragraph of the Valentian government denied that there was an agreement sealed with Tesla. That could of course just mean that they're still negotiating and no agreement has been signed. VW has already announced a battery plant in Spain and Ford has been making cars there with plans to make some EVs there as well. So what do we know for sure? Tesla's next Gigafactory will most likely be announced by the end of this year. That's about it. After Spain, India, Canada, France or any number of countries right now that Elon and Tesla have been in talks with, all we know is that one of them will be chosen probably in the next 6-9 months. I'm not going to pontificate like I know which choice would be best, I'm not privy to all of these closed door conversations, but we'll find out soon enough and the more options the better just gives Tesla more negotiating leverage.

据路透社报道，特斯拉正在与西班牙瓦伦西亚地区政府领导人进行谈判，计划在该地区进行汽车投资。西班牙一家报纸称，这项投资将是一座汽车工厂，其总规模可能达到48亿美元。不过瓦伦西亚政府随即否认与特斯拉达成了协议。当然，这可能意味着双方仍在谈判阶段，还没有签署协议。大众已经宣布在西班牙建立一座电池工厂，福特也在那里生产汽车，并计划生产一些电动汽车。我们确切知道什么呢？特斯拉下一个超级工厂很可能在年底之前宣布。就是这么简单。西班牙、印度、加拿大、法国或其他一些与Elon和特斯拉正在进行谈判的国家，我们只知道其中一个很可能会在接下来的6-9个月内被选择。我不会像我知道哪个选择最好那样说教，我没有接触所有那些幕后交易，但我们很快就会发现，更多的选择只会使特斯拉有更多的谈判筹码。

Electric apparently got its hands on some communications with suppliers and they're telling us that Tesla is internally planning on 375,000 Cybertrucks per year which would fit with Elon's prediction from investor day between 250 and 500,000. And for now, Tesla is asking suppliers to plan for meeting a base production volume of that 375,000. From this supplier leak, Tesla is planning to have its first Cybertruck released candidates at the end of August, meaning with the current timeline, the official start of production is planned for early October.

据报道，电动汽车显然得到了一些与供应商的通讯，并告诉我们，特斯拉在内部计划每年生产375,000辆Cybertruck，这与埃隆在投资者日的预测（在250,000到500,000辆之间）相符。目前，特斯拉要求供应商计划满足375,000辆的基础生产量。从这个供应商泄漏的消息来看，特斯拉计划在8月底发布第一批Cybertruck候选车型，这意味着根据目前的时间表，正式生产的开始计划在10月初。

And if we go back in history, we learned from Tesla that the way they define released candidates, it's basically the last step before official production. With the Model 3, Elon said that these released candidates were almost entirely built with production tooling. Of course, there are no guarantees the Cybertruck timeline will be the same, but when it came to the Model 3, those released candidates were produced in March, then they actually had that first delivery handover event toward the end of July, so roughly 3-4 months. So of course, we'll just have to wait and see, but given that these released candidates could be coming out in about 2 months from now is a very exciting proposition.

如果我们回到历史，我们可以从特斯拉那里学到，他们所定义的“发布候选人”实际上是官方生产前的最后一步。对于Model 3，埃隆表示，这些发布的候选人几乎完全是用生产工具制造出来的。当然，没有任何保证Cybertruck的时间表将会相同，但是当涉及到Model 3的时候，这些发布候选人是在3月份生产的，然后他们实际上在7月底进行了第一次交付活动，大约需要3-4个月的时间。因此，我们将不得不等待并观望，但是考虑到这些发布候选人可能在接下来的2个月内发行，这是一个非常令人兴奋的前景。

We also have 36KR reporting that Tesla is mobilizing many Chinese supply companies to build factories in Mexico, which we've known. Some supply chain companies have been asked to invest in build factories there, saying Tesla's pace is quite urgent, and if these suppliers don't respond in time, I'm worried about losing hundreds of millions of large orders. One of these suppliers, the Zuchengroup, has officially launched their project, saying that the factory could be able to start production in July or August next year, meaning maybe Gigamexico could look to start production shortly thereafter. And 36KR is saying a number of domestic production line equipment manufacturers have already set up offices in Mexico, responsible for things like design and after sale support. Perhaps most exciting, they're saying Zuciaotong, which is Tom Zoo, is currently spending a lot of energy on the Monterey plant as we would expect.

36氪报道称，特斯拉正在动员许多中国供应公司在墨西哥建厂，这已经是我们所知道的。一些供应链公司被要求投资建设工厂，称特斯拉的步伐相当紧急，如果这些供应商不能及时作出回应，我担心会失去数千万的大订单。其中一家供应商——祝成集团已经正式启动了他们的项目，称工厂明年7月或8月就可以开始生产，这意味着Gigamexico可能很快就可以开始生产。而36氪则表示，一些国内生产线设备制造商已经在墨西哥设立了办事处，负责设计和售后支持等事宜。也许最让人激动的是，他们说TomZoo的Zuciaotong正在花费大量精力在蒙特雷工厂，这是我们所期待的。

So we've heard rumors of Tesla maybe looking to set up a supply base in India, but here we actually have real things happening for the supply base for Gigamexico. Something to watch in India, they're making a major push for battery energy storage systems for the next decade. Right now, they're offering about $450 million to companies setting up best projects in the area, they're looking to expand to 500 gigawatts by 2030. Listen to this, from about 37 megawatt hours of storage capacity right now, should be noted though, this plan for incentives needs federal cabinet approval.

我们听到了关于特斯拉可能正在印度建立供应基地的传言，但在此，我们实际上有供应基地为Gigamexico提供真实货物。关注一下印度，他们在未来十年内将大力推行电池储能系统。现在，他们正在向在该地区设立最佳项目的公司提供约4.5亿美元的支持，他们计划到2030年扩大到500吉瓦的规模。请注意，现在的储能容量约为37兆瓦小时，但这个刺激计划需要联邦内阁的批准。

I think many of you have seen this already, but Adam Jonas in a recent Tesla stock note talked about his personal experience going to a traditional dealer to buy a car, got slapped with a dealer markup after they told him there wouldn't be one, and overall it was just a not good experience. Then Adam went on to explain why Tesla's process is just so much better, people pay the same price for the car, there's no haggling, all of the things we've known about that the general public is still yet to understand.

我觉得你们很多人已经看到了，但在最近的一份特斯拉股票报告中，亚当·乔纳斯谈到了他个人去传统汽车经销商购买汽车的经历。在他们告诉他不会有加价之后，他却被收取了加价，整个购车过程非常糟糕。然后，亚当进一步解释了为什么特斯拉的购车流程要好得多，人们支付相同价格购买汽车，没有讨价还价，这些都是我们已知的事情，但大众仍未能理解。

This video was brought to you by AG1. Hear me out, I've had more blood work done this year than perhaps my entire life combined dealing with this parasite. I've learned an absurd amount in one of my biggest takeaways, even seemingly healthy people can have nutrient and mineral deficiencies. Simply put, AG1 is a great step to ensure a baseline of daily nutrition, and I know taste this objective, but I've had many green drinks in my day and this is the one I've stuck with.

本视频由AG1赞助。请听我说，今年我为了对付这个寄生虫做了比我整个生命中都多的血液检查，学到了很多，其中最重要的一点是，即使看似健康的人也可能有营养和矿物质的缺乏。简单来说，AG1是确保日常营养的良好步骤，我知道品味并不是目标，但我曾经喝过很多绿色饮料，而这是我坚持采用的一种。

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此外，所有酷酷的孩子都在服用它。看看这份花名册，乔·罗根、安德鲁·休伯曼、莱克斯·弗里德曼、法拉扎德、史蒂文·马克·瑞恩、安迪·斯莱、医生通通都在其中，还有许多其他伟大的人才。是不是很了不起？ 如果你们对Roedola和B族维生素不熟悉，你们可能需要看一看。也许这可以成为一种饮料，在你下午撞墙时提供中午能量提升，因为每份饮料中含有超过70种维生素、矿物质和益生菌。最重要的是，你可以放心地知道你所喝的是标签上写的东西。在补充剂的世界，这并非保证，我再次强调。 如果你使用以下链接获得几个免费的旅行装和一年D3K2维生素，谢谢你提前。

Here we have a second report done by the American Lung Association. Real quick, their findings. By 2050, as the US moves to an all-electric future, the cumulative national public health benefits due to cleaner air could reach $978 billion in public health benefits, 89,300 fewer premature deaths, 2.2 million fewer asthma attacks, and 10.7 million fewer lost workdays. So as I always say, the technology, the profits, the safety, it's all awesome, I love it, but let's not forget about this, it's a big deal as well. The full study will be linked below.

这里有美国肺协会发布的第二份报告。简单来说，他们的调查发现，到2050年，当美国实现全面电动化时，因空气更清洁带来的公共卫生收益累计可达9780亿美元，因此将减少89300个过早死亡，220万个哮喘发作和1070万个工作日的流失。所以，正如我经常说的那样，技术、利润、安全是很棒的，我很喜欢它们，但我们不要忘记这一点，它也很重要。完整的研究报告将在下面链接。

Viva Technology is one of Europe's biggest technology and startup events, and for this year, Elon is set to be speaking. This event will take place June 14th to the 17th in Paris. To any of you looking for in-person or online access, I'll have this link below.

Viva Technology是欧洲最大的科技和创业活动之一，今年，埃隆（Elon）将发言。该活动将于6月14日至17日在巴黎举行。如果您想参加现场或在线访问，我将在下面提供链接。

AESC, or Automotive Energy Supply Company, is one of these battery companies that really gets lost in the shuffle when everybody always talks about Panasonic, LG, and the like. Well, AESC has been quietly building out pretty big plans for the North American market this time around they just broke ground on a 30-gigawatt EV battery factory in South Carolina for BMW. This one should be operational around 2026 and almost approaching a billion dollar investment, but they also have two other plans, one in Tennessee and one in Kentucky, so these three combined eventually may do 70-gigawatt hours of capacity every year. AESC started with pouch type batteries and is now also developing prismatic and cylindrical type batteries to cater to a wider range of customers. This range already includes customers like BMW, Mercedes, Renault, Honda, and Nissan. So just don't forget about little old AESC.

AESC（汽车能源供应公司）是电池公司之一，但当每个人总是谈论松下、LG等公司时，它经常在这些电池公司中被忽视。好吧，AESC一直在悄悄地为北美市场制定相当大的计划，这次它们刚在南卡罗来纳州为宝马动工修建一座30吉瓦特的电动汽车电池工厂。这个工厂应该在2026年左右开始运营，投资近10亿美元，而且他们还有另外两个计划，在田纳西州和肯塔基州，这三个工厂合并最终可能每年产能达到70吉瓦时。AESC始于软包电池，现在也正在开发适用于更广泛客户群的晶体与圆柱形电池。这个客户群已经包括宝马、奔驰、雷诺、本田和日产等。所以不要忘记AESC这个小巨人。

Toyota is planning a $48 million investment for a battery R&D headquarters in Detroit. The lab will evaluate Toyota EV battery quality for North American standards and develop new battery configurations for future projects, not going to be operational until 2025. Zuzheng, the former vice president of NEO and other companies like Ford and others, has now joined Lucid Motors to start preparations for Lucid to enter the Chinese market. We've heard now for years that Lucid has had plans to build a car factory in China and then December of last year, Lucid started hiring for certain positions in China. And now, Reuters is saying Lucid will sell imported cars in China while also considering local production in the country.

丰田计划在底特律投资4800万美元建立一家电池研发总部。该实验室将评估丰田在北美的电动汽车电池质量，并为未来项目开发新的电池配置，预计到2025年才会投入运营。曾在NEO、福特等公司担任副总裁的Zuzheng现已加入Lucid Motors，为Lucid进入中国市场做准备。多年来，我们一直听说Lucid有在中国建立汽车工厂的计划，去年12月，Lucid开始在中国招聘某些职位。现在，路透社称，Lucid将在中国销售进口汽车，并考虑在该国本地生产。

When it comes to GM, their executive vice president of manufacturing said they have no plans to build or close any factories, but rather rearrange the existing ones. They'll convert some plans to build only EVs and others to build both EV and gasoline vehicles. And just this week, GM committed to invest more than $1 billion for the next generation of gasoline powered Chevy Silverados and GMC Sierra pickups. And he said, I'm sure we will do more all EV plans, but we assess every plant based on infrastructure, what it can handle, what we can convert, refurbish, or maybe even just expand slightly so that we can accommodate what we need for EV production and for ICE production.

在谈到通用汽车（GM）时，他们的制造执行副总裁表示他们没有计划建立或关闭任何工厂，而是重新安排现有的工厂。他们将一些工厂转换成只生产电动汽车，另一些则生产电动汽车和汽油车混合型。就在本周，GM承诺投资超过10亿美元用于下一代的雪佛兰Silverado和GMC Sierra的汽油拖车。他说，“我相信我们将会有更多的全电动计划，但我们会根据基础设施、工厂的承载能力、可转换、翻新或适当扩展来评估每个工厂，以便满足我们生产电动汽车和燃油汽车所需的产能。”

Of course, the first thing I think about is Tesla and what they did with Fremont previously that being an ICE factory. Yes, they're making it work, but it hasn't been without its fair share of challenges and hurdles given the way the factory was set up initially, and of course the size. The truth is, they're in a really tough spot and I do understand the decision trying to use what they have as efficiently as possible, but at the end of the day, it's just never going to be a competitive advantage, not having purpose built EV factories.

当然，我首先想到的是特斯拉以前在弗里蒙特所做的事情，那里原本是一个内燃机汽车工厂。是的，他们让它运转起来了，但是考虑到工厂最初的建设方式和尺寸，肯定也遭遇了不少挑战和障碍。事实上，他们处于非常艰难的境地，我理解他们试图尽可能高效地利用现有资源，并做出的决定。但归根结底，没有专门为电动汽车建造的工厂，这永远不会成为竞争优势。

This news blurb will go way overlooked by most people, even in the Tesla and EV space, because most people just aren't that into mining and I totally get it. But if you want to talk about limiting factors from the raw material side, this is exactly what we need to happen. Mansion said major strides had been made in terms of improving permitting for critical mineral projects, saying even the environmental community has come to grips with reality, we have to do the mining, we have to do the processing, we can do it, we have to embrace it. And one of the debt ceiling agreement that was passed last month, it sets a two year time limit on environmental impact statements for projects, it also streamlines permitting for energy storage projects. And back to limiting factors, one of the biggest hang ups for Tesla megapack deployments is actually the permitting process, and that has a huge role in when Tesla actually gets paid for said projects.

这则新闻短文大部分人都会忽视，即使是在特斯拉和电动汽车领域，因为大多数人并不关心采矿，我完全理解。但如果你想谈谈原材料方面的限制因素，这正是我们需要发生的事情。曼森表示，在关键矿物项目的许可方面已经取得了重大进展，甚至环保团体也已经认识到现实，我们必须进行采矿，必须进行加工，我们可以做到，我们必须接受这一点。在上个月通过的债务上限协议中，它将环境影响陈述的时间限制为两年，并简化了能源储存项目的许可程序。回到限制因素，特斯拉超级电池组部署的最大障碍之一实际上是许可过程，这将对特斯拉实际获得项目报酬时间产生巨大影响。

The US Department of the Interior is focused on updating mining regulations and laws, including driving efficiencies in the permitting system. There were a number of proposals that the administration would like to see in a permitting reform bill, and it would publish a report later this month.

美国内政部正在关注更新采矿法规和法律，包括推动许可系统的效率提升。政府提出了一些许可改革法案的建议，本月晚些时候将公布一份报告。

Some comments you love to see from Volvo's CCO. Volvo will not sell a single car that is not fully electric after 2030, regardless of the market, there's no ifs, no buts. He said there might be a few markets where we lose a little bit of sales, but focusing financial and human resources on a single powertrain technology gives Volvo the best shot at producing the most compelling EV products. You don't say. To be successful, you should focus on the growing part of the market. Last time I looked, that the EV market is a very strong growing market, and ICE is a shrinking market. He said ICE models will get a bit of love, but we're not investing in their base technology, no deep R&D, but we can upgrade infotainment, software, and some exterior interior design.

Volvo的首席传播官给出了一些让人喜闻乐见的评论。他表示，无论市场如何，Volvo在2030年之后将不会销售任何非全电动汽车，这是无庸置疑的。他说，虽然可能会在一些市场失去一些销售额，但将财力和人力资源集中在单一动力系统上，这将使Volvo最有可能生产出最具吸引力的电动汽车产品。这是不言而喻的。为了成功，您应该专注于市场的增长部分。上次我看到，电动汽车市场是一个非常强劲的增长市场，而传统燃油车市场正在缩小。他说传统燃油车型会得到一些关注，但我们不会投资于它们的基础技术，没有深入的研究和开发，但我们可以升级娱乐信息系统、软件和一些外观和内饰设计。

From a long term perspective, this feels like the right move for traditional OEMs.

从长期的角度来看，这似乎是传统的OEM企业采取的正确的举措。 意思是，从长远来看，传统的汽车制造商采取这个举措似乎是正确的选择。

Don't forget, check out AG1 linked below if you're interested, and don't forget, no video from me on Friday, and potentially Monday, but we'll see on that one.

别忘了，如果你感兴趣的话，要去下面链接的AG1检查一下。还有，周五和可能的周一我都不会发布视频，但对于周一的情况我们还要看看。

Either way, hope you guys have a wonderful weekend. Please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

无论如何，希望你们度过美好的周末。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞，感谢我的所有Patreon支持者。