Ford CEO Explains Tesla’s Dominance, Giga Expansion, Shanghai Ups Security
发布时间 2023-06-06 01:15:50 来源
Hey everybody Rob Merritt here, welcome back to Tesla Daily. Today we are talking about new comments from Ford CEO Jim Farley on why Tesla has such a big lead, particularly in software. We've also got some new comments from GM, updates on Tesla and China, FSD and more.
大家好，我是罗布·梅里特，欢迎回到《特斯拉日报》。今天我们将讨论福特首席执行官吉姆·法利关于特斯拉为什么在软件领域如此领先的新评论。我们还有通用汽车的新评论，特斯拉在中国的最新情况，完全自动驾驶以及更多更新。
Alright, looking at the stock, the run kind of continues here. Tesla up another 3.1% to close at $220.52 while the Nasdaq was down 1 10th of a percent on the day to day. They did increase their price target from $175 previously, now to $215 per share. If only they had done that before the stock did the exact same thing, maybe it would have been of some value, but anyway they have kept their neutral rating on Tesla.
好的，看看股票情况，特斯拉的股价还在上涨。特斯拉的股价上涨了3.1%，收于220.52美元，而纳斯达克当日下跌了0.1%。他们已将特斯拉的目标股价从之前的175美元上调至215美元。如果他们在股票价格变化之前就做出这样的调整，可能会有一定的价值，但无论如何，他们仍然保持中性评级。
Alex Potter of Piper Sandler was out with a new note today as well, he has kept his $280 price target and overweight rating on the stock. Alright moving on from the stock, we'll start off with a couple of updates out of China. First is the wholesale sales figure for May, reported by the CPCA or China passenger car association.
今天，Piper Sandler的Alex Potter发表了一篇新的研究报告，他仍将目标股价设定为280美元，并给予该股超配评级。好了，离开股票不谈，我们来看看中国的一些更新。首先是由中国乘用车协会(CPCA)报告的5月份批发销售数据。
Remember wholesale sales is a combination of domestic sales in China and export sales originating from Giga Shanghai production. So that number from May was $77,695 vehicles. So only up about 2% month over month when there is an extra day which adds 3% to the day count, so pretty similar on a daily average to April's wholesale sales figure. Year over year it is a significant increase, I think 142%.
记住，批发销售是指来自吉利上海生产的中国国内销售和出口销售的组合。因此，5月的销售量为77,695辆。尽管当月天数增加了3%，但月度环比仅增长2%，因此与4月的批发销售数量相比，其日均销售量相当相似。从年度角度来看，销售量相比去年同期增加了142%，这是一个显著的增长。
But that's definitely a cherry-picked figure because there was significant downtime in April and May last year. Now obviously we'll see what this means in terms of a retail vs export split. I expect retail to be somewhere around $44,000, give or take a few thousand based off of the insured vehicle data that we've been getting each week.
但这显然是一个被精心挑选的数字，因为去年四月和五月有大量的停机时间。现在，显然，我们将看看这意味着零售与出口的分割。我预计零售价格约为44,000美元左右，根据我们每周得到的投保车辆数据，相差数千美元。
So the split should be pretty similar to what we saw in April, and then of course the big question would be production. Tesla did build inventory significantly so produced more vehicles than were reported as wholesale sales in April. We might see that again this month, but remember there was some holiday production downtime in the beginning of May. It's possible that we're heading into some more production downtime here as rumors have been swirling about Project Highland at Giga Shanghai.
因此，这次的销售分布应该和四月份差不多，当然主要问题是生产量。特斯拉确实增加了存货数量，因此在四月份生产的车辆数量比批发销售报告中报道的要多。这个月我们可能会再次看到这种情况，但需要记住五月初有一些假期生产停机时间。这里可能还会再次遭遇生产停机，因为关于上海工厂“高地计划”的谣言一直在流传。
We got a report over the weekend from Wuwa who does drone flivers at Giga Shanghai that production was shut down on Sunday, and that Tesla has installed some GPS jamming devices which interfere with GPS communications for drones. So for whatever reason, they seem to be increasing security right now at Giga Shanghai trying to keep any information from getting out.
我们周末收到了Wuwa的报告，他在Giga上海驾驶无人机，称生产在周日被停止了，并且特斯拉安装了一些GPS干扰设备，干扰了无人机的GPS通信。因此，无论出于何种原因，他们似乎正在加强Giga上海的安全，试图阻止任何信息外泄。
Alright, next up let's move into the comments from Ford CEO Jim Farley. He appeared in about a 45 minute interview on the fully charged podcast. Definitely an interesting interview. Farley clearly taking cues from Elon in terms of his social media presence, so I'll put a link to the interview down in the description, but I want to focus on one particular comment that Farley made, which was an explanation for why legacy automakers are just so far behind Tesla in terms of software vehicle integration.
好的，接下来让我们来看看福特汽车首席执行官吉姆·法利的评论。他在长达45分钟的Fully Charged播客采访中亮相。这是一次非常有趣的采访。 法利显然从埃隆那里学到了社交媒体存在感的技巧，所以我将在描述中放置采访的链接，但我想着重谈谈法利做出的一个特别评论，那就是他为什么遗留汽车制造商在软件车辆集成方面落后于特斯拉的解释。
As these competitive advantages for Tesla often do, it comes back to vertical integration. Farley explained that in the old way of doing things they would basically bid out different components of the vehicle to different suppliers and get them to compete against each other so that Ford could get the best prices on those individual components. Farley estimated that that saved them about $500 per vehicle from bringing those prices down.
正如特斯拉的这些竞争优势所做的那样，它归结于垂直整合。弗利解释说，在旧的做事方式中，他们基本上会把车辆的不同组件分配给不同的供应商，并将它们竞争，以便福特能够获得这些个别组件的最佳价格。弗利估计，这使得他们每辆车节省了约500美元。
So if you're not going to do it yourself, okay, that kind of makes sense, but the problem that has arisen over time as more and more software has been added to vehicles is that now maybe you've got as far as used as an example, 150 different components that all have completely different software modules, completely different programming languages, completely different intellectual property, where even if you're able to understand and possibly integrate some of those things, you might run into IP barriers.
如果你不打算自己来做，那也没关系。但随着越来越多的软件加入到车辆中，问题逐渐出现。现在，假设你以使用150个不同组件为例，它们都使用完全不同的软件模块、编程语言和知识产权。即使你能理解和整合其中的一些东西，你也可能会遇到知识产权障碍。
So a complete mess to try to get all of these components to work together, let alone have them all be able to be updated over the air or something like that. So alright, the answer then seems to be to bring these components all under one roof, put them all on the same software architecture so that they can talk and work well with each other. And that's the direction that Ford is trying to head, but Farley, very candid as he has tended to be, said that they've never done any of that before.
尝试让所有这些组件共同运作已经成为一种完全混乱的状态，更不用说让它们全部能够通过空中升级等方式得到更新了。因此，最佳解决方案似乎是将这些组件全部托管在一个屋檐下，将它们放在同一软件架构下，以便它们能够互相通信并良好地协同工作。这也是福特汽车公司正试图迈向的方向。但是，法利先生一直以来都非常坦率，他表示他们以前从未这样做过。
So that's an extremely challenging problem for legacy automakers to just start doing all of a sudden, let alone integrating it to their processes throughout the organizational culture. This is what Tesla tried to reiterate again and again and again at Investor Day and it seemed to fall on deaf ears, all of this integration between the different teams from the very, very beginning stages of design, all the way to servicing the vehicle, all of these teams are working together from the very beginning. Farley's example here is an excellent contrast to that way of thinking. So it's refreshing to see Farley continue to be so honest, continue to give Tesla the credit that is due. It's very similar to what we saw from former VW CEO Herbert Deese. Hopefully things will be a little bit different for Farley, but we see Volkswagen struggle with this too with their efforts in software with carry out or carry out.
对于传统汽车制造商来说，这是一个极具挑战性的问题，不仅仅是突然开始做，更不用说将其整合到组织文化的所有流程中。这是特斯拉在投资者日一遍又一遍强调的，但似乎并没有得到重视，即在设计的最初阶段，就开始将不同团队之间进行整合，一直到车辆维修服务，所有这些团队都从一开始就紧密合作。法利在这里举的例子与这种思维方式形成了鲜明对比，很让人感到振奋。因此，看到法利继续坦诚并给予特斯拉应有的赞扬，这与前大众CEO赫伯特·迪斯的表现非常相似。希望法利的情况会有所改变，但我们可以看到大众在软件方面的努力也面临着困难。
I can't remember how to say it, but it's clearly been an effort that has caused tremendous stress on Volkswagen. All right, moving on from Farley's comments, we've got some new comments from GM CEO Mary Barra as well at a business conference on Friday. She talks about electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles. And while she did acknowledge that Tesla is the leader in technology, profitability and scale for EVs, she said that that lead is not permanent. I think GM as we've talked about before is still somehow clinging to some hope that they can be the leader here. But as each day has gone by the last couple of years, that has continued to look more and more outlandish.
我记不得该怎么说了，但显然这是一项让大众汽车承受巨大压力的努力。好了，从法利的评论转移话题，我们在上周五的商业会议上得到了通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉的一些新评论。她谈到了电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车。虽然她承认特斯拉是电动汽车技术、盈利能力和规模方面的领导者，但她说这种领导地位并非永久的。我认为通用汽车仍然在抱有一些希望，希望自己能在这里占据领导地位。但随着过去几年的每一天过去，这一希望看起来越来越不切实际。
Farley also said that battery costs are still too high to build profitable mass market EVs that sell for $30,000 to $40,000. Model three starts at $40,240. So just above that. But we do also have to remember that even if you exclude the federal EV tax credit, which you should for a comment like this, there is still battery production credit, which will add to Tesla's margin. There's still regulatory credit sales that'll also add to Tesla's margin. So not impossible, but even with those things and the scale that Tesla is at, it's still a little bit tough. And Tesla's margins probably a little bit lower on those opening price point vehicles. Obviously, Tesla still laser focused on continuing to bring those costs now.
Farley还表示，电池成本仍然太高，无法建造销售30,000到40,000美元的盈利大众市场电动汽车。Model 3起价40,240美元，略高于这个价格。但我们还必须记住，即使把联邦EV税收排除在外，对于这样的评论，还有电池生产税收，这将增加特斯拉的利润。还有监管信贷销售，也会增加特斯拉的利润。因此不是不可能，但即使有这些因素和特斯拉的规模，这仍然有些困难。特斯拉在这些起点车型的利润可能还有些低。显然，特斯拉仍专注于继续推动成本降低。
Finally, Barra talked about EVs in China. She said that GM has moved too slowly to launch EVs in China, but that Chevy and Cadillac will be launching EVs in China over the next 18 months, which will be critical to rebuilding market share. She said the China EV market is due for some quote unquote sorting, which I'm not sure exactly what that means, but probably implies that GM will somehow climb those market share ranks once they introduce these vehicles. But this is a pretty competitive market already. So I'm not sure that GM's prospects they are probably match what Barra is implying here, which would pretty much be par for the course.
最后，巴拉谈论了中国的电动车。她说通用汽车在中国推出电动车的步伐太慢了，但雪佛兰和凯迪拉克将在未来18个月内在中国推出电动车，这对于重建市场份额非常关键。她说，中国的电动汽车市场需要一些所谓的“整合”，我不确定确切的含义是什么，但可能是意味着一旦通用汽车推出这些车辆，他们会以某种方式攀升市场份额排名。但这已经是一个相当竞争的市场了。所以我不确定通用汽车的前景是否与巴拉在此暗示的相符，这几乎是司空见惯的事情了。
Anyway, Elon replied to a tweet about this article said that Tesla spires to be as helpful as possible to other car companies, talked about making patents open, making the supercharger network open, and said quote also happy to license autopilot slash FSD or other Tesla technology, and quote, Elon has mentioned this before. So nothing new in terms of that possibility. Obviously, it was brought up a little bit on the Twitter spaces with Ford, which I think would be much more likely to pursue something like that with Tesla than a company like GM.
总之，埃隆回复了一条关于这篇文章的推文，说特斯拉希望对其他车企提供帮助，并提到将专利公开、将超级充电站网络公开，还说：“也很乐意许可自动驾驶/全自动驾驶或其他特斯拉技术”，埃隆之前也提到过这一点，因此这并不是一件新鲜事。很明显，在推特空间中与福特讨论了一些这样的可能性，我认为这比通用汽车这样的公司更有可能与特斯拉合作。
Moving on, we've got another update on FSD. This is coming from Tesla scope on Twitter. They followed up on a report that they had last year about some FSD testing more broadly throughout the world. They say that in addition to the UK, Tesla is hired and is actively testing FSD in Norway, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, China, and more markets. They said that's not a complete list, just the countries that they've been able to determine so far.
接下来，我们得到了另一个对完全自动驾驶(FSD)的更新。这来源于Twitter上的Tesla scope。他们继续了去年他们发布的一份报告，报告中介绍了全球范围内对FSD的广泛测试。他们称，除了英国之外，特斯拉已雇用人员并正在积极测试FSD在挪威、德国、澳大利亚、新西兰、中国以及其他市场的可行性。他们说，这不是一个完整的列表，只是到目前为止他们能够确定的国家。
They say that from their conversations, the overall employee opinion has been generally positive. And when presented with the open ended question of do you believe FSD has seen improvement since your employment, a majority said yes. One employee did note that there would likely be specific use cases that would take much longer, particularly pertaining to local street signs, unique speed limits, things like that. Finally, Tesla scopes saying something that relatively obvious, but still interesting nonetheless, they say that there are some upcoming changes that haven't made their way into customer facing versions of FSD yet, but have been underway for testing for several months now. I would assume that things like actually Smart Summon would be one of those types of features.
他们说从他们的交谈中，员工的整体意见普遍是积极的。当被问到您是否认为自雇以来FSD已经有所改善的开放性问题时，大多数人回答是肯定的。但一位员工指出，可能会有一些特定用例需要更长时间来实现，特别是与本地街道标志、独特的速度限制等相关的事情。最后，Tesla指出一些相对明显但仍然有趣的事情，他们说还有一些即将推出的更改没有出现在FSD的面向客户的版本中，但已经进行了数月的测试。我认为像实际的智能召唤这样的特性就是这类功能之一。
So fun to see it easier like that, but again, just keep those expectations a little bit in check.
看到事情变得更加容易很有趣，但是要注意保持一点点的期望。
Next, we've got some updates on Tesla's referral program. As we've talked about, Tesla's been exploring different levers that they can pull for demand generation. Right now, they're testing something new with the referral program for June 2nd through June 30th on the Model S and X.
接下来，我们有一些有关特斯拉推荐计划的更新。就像我们所讨论的，特斯拉一直在探索不同的方式来推动销量。现在，他们正在测试参与购买Model S和X的推荐计划，从6月2日到6月30日。
People placing orders will receive $1,000 off their purchase and three months of free full self-driving. For the person making the referral, they'll earn 20,000 referral credits. That's up from 2000 for the Model 3 and Model Y, but importantly, the referrer credit, that only applies if the existing owner does not actually have a Tesla vehicle already. Those existing owners, they can use referral codes. It just doesn't generate the referrer awards then. The bi-side rewards are still intact.
购买特斯拉的人将获得1000美元的折扣和三个月的免费全自动驾驶。对于介绍人，他们将获得20000个推荐积分。这比Model 3和Model Y的2000个推荐积分还要多，但重要的是，推荐人的积分只适用于没有特斯拉车的现有所有者。这些现有所有者可以使用推荐码。只是这时不会产生推荐人的奖励。另一方面的奖励仍然有效。
So this comes on top of the three years of free supercharging for the S and X. So a nice little suite of incentives that Tesla is using there and obviously correlating them with a deadline, creating some urgency to purchase. The three months of FSD capability is also very interesting. This has of course been talked about a lot, doing some sort of a free trial to increase the take rate. So Tesla now showing some confidence to be able to employ things like that. Oh, and by the way, those 20,000 referral points for the referrer that could earn 8,000 supercharging miles. Those are bought in up to 2,000 mile increments and they're good for six months. So could be up to two years of free supercharging for one referral here. Alternatively, it'd be enough points for 13 pairs of Tesla short shorts.
这是在S和X享受三年免费超级充电的基础上再次提供的福利。这是特斯拉提供的一套不错的激励措施，并且显然与截止日期相关联，增加了购买的紧迫性。三个月的FSD能力也非常有趣。这当然已经被广泛讨论过了，通过提供免费试用来提高接受率。因此，特斯拉现在正在展示一些信心来采用这样的事物。哦，顺便说一下，那些给予推荐人20,000积分的推荐福利可以获得8,000超级充电里程。这些积分是以2,000英里为增量购买的，并且有效期为6个月。因此，通过一个推荐可以获得长达两年的免费超级充电。或者，这足以获得13件特斯拉的短裤。
Next, we've got a report from Nikkei Asia that Panasonic is planning to expand a little bit at Giga Nevada, increasing to a 15th production line at the factory. They say annual production is expected to increase about 10% from the current 38 gigawatt hours to 39 gigawatt hours. I assume they're giving that as a range because that's only about a 2% increase.
接下来，我们从《日经亚洲》获悉，松下计划在Giga Nevada扩容一下，将工厂的生产线增加至第15条。他们表示，预计每年产量将从当前的38千兆瓦时增加约10％，达到39千兆瓦时。我猜他们给出这个范围是因为这只是约2％的增长。
意思是：据《日经亚洲》报道，松下计划在Giga Nevada扩大规模，增加第15条生产线，生产能力将从现有的38千兆瓦时每年提高10%左右，达到39千兆瓦时。这里提到的数量范围很小，因为增长幅度较小。
So it sounds like they're saying that the new line should add three to four gigawatt hours of capacity for 2170s there at Giga Nevada. The other interesting part of this report, which maybe I just missed this previously, but apparently Panasonic is revising their strategy a little bit with their new factory that they're working on building in Kansas.
听起来他们在说新的生产线应该增加三到四千兆瓦时的容量，以生产2170型号的电池在Giga Nevada。这份报告中另外一个有趣的部分是，或许之前我没有注意到，但显然松下正在调整他们在堪萨斯州新建厂房的策略。
According to the report, they were originally intending to produce 4680 cells at the new factory, but they're now going to do 2,170s because of the urgency in a battery production that's been created by the Invasion Reduction Act. So it sounds like because of that, Tesla and Panasonic prioritizing the speed that 2,170s would offer at that new factory, at least for some initial period of time.
根据报告，他们原本计划在新工厂生产4680电池，但由于入侵减少法案所创造的电池生产紧急情况，现在他们将生产2170型号的电池。因此，听起来特斯拉和松下公司优先考虑新工厂初始阶段2170型号电池的速度优势。
So a couple of interesting updates there. Obviously that doesn't paint the best picture for 4680 progress, but Panasonic would be even a little bit further behind where Tesla is at on 4680s. So even if things were progressing really well, 2,170s probably a much safer option to get to volume production more quickly.
这里有一些有趣的更新。显然，这并不是最好的4680进展画面，但相较于Tesla在4680上的进展，Panasonic会更落后一些。所以即使事情进展得非常顺利，2,170s也可能更安全，更快地实现量产。
Alright, coming back to the big news from Friday, which was Tesla now showing all Model 3s being eligible for the full $7,500 USB tax credit. We talked on Friday about a number of signs that point into this not actually being any change to the battery itself, but rather an interpretation or clarification on eligibility from Tesla.
好的，回到周五的重大新闻，特斯拉现在展示了所有Model 3符合获得7500美元美国联邦税收抵免的资格。我们在周五谈到了一些迹象，指出这实际上并不是电池本身发生了任何变化，而是特斯拉对资格的解释或澄清。
And per some digging that's been done on Reddit, that seems even more likely to be the case now. So as we know, to be eligible for the full credit, there are certain percentage thresholds that need to be met for both battery minerals and battery components. So looking at a lithium iron phosphate pack from China for example, is obviously not going to be eligible for the full credit on its own.
根据 Reddit 上的一些挖掘，这似乎现在更有可能成为事实。因此，我们知道，为了有资格获得全额信贷，需要满足电池矿物和电池组件的特定百分比阈值。例如，单独查看来自中国的磷酸铁锂电池组显然不能符合全额信贷的资格要求。
But part of the language here reads that quote, relatively for purposes of calculating the qualifying critical mineral content for batteries and group of vehicles, a qualified manufacturer could average the qualifying critical mineral content calculation over a limited period of time, for example, a year, quarter or month with respect to vehicles from the same model line, plant class, or some combination of thereof, end quote, the same language then also exists for battery components.
这段语言表明，为了计算电池和车辆组的合格关键矿物含量，合格的制造商可以将其平均值计算在一个有限的时间段内，例如一年、季度或月份，针对相同型号线、工厂类别或它们的组合的车辆。同样的语言也适用于电池组件。
So interesting here, it looks like Tesla is able to average across the model lineup for a given period, which kind of makes sense because then you can transition your sourcing year by year alongside those percentage breakdowns with a little bit more flexibility.
这里有一些很有趣的内容，似乎Tesla能够在给定的一段时间内对整个车型组合进行平均处理。这有点合理，因为这样你可以更有弹性地逐年过渡你的采购，与那些百分比拆分相配合。
Essentially, you're getting additional credit for those vehicles that are, let's say 100% us sourced, rather than something that is just 40% us sourced, those 100% vehicles can then allow other vehicles to earn the full credit. So that seems to be what's happening here with the model three and all trims now being eligible for that full credit.
基本上，如果一辆车的零部件全部来自美国，你将会获得更多的信用，而不是只有40%来自美国的车，那些全部来自美国的车可以帮助其他车型获得完整的信用。因此，现在Model 3的所有配置都有资格获得完整的信用。
All right, last few things here, Tesla over the weekend tweeted a little bit more about Tesla with the track package, the model S, setting a new record at the Nurburgring for a production electric vehicle with a lap time of seven minutes and 25 seconds.
好的，接下来最后几件事情，特斯拉在周末发布了一些有关其型号S轨道套件的信息，称该车在纽伯格林赛道上创造了生产电动车的新记录，完成了7分钟25秒的赛道计时。
So we know Tesla's been kind of testing this out for the last couple of years going back and forth a little bit with Porsche. So Tesla now snagging this record back, which is awesome to see. However, it looks like it may be for a short period of time, hard to know the exact credibility of this, but there are some rumors on Instagram that apparently this might be dethroned within a week from another manufacturer, likely Porsche or Remock. So we'll keep an eye out on that.
我们知道特斯拉一直在过去几年中进行测试，与保时捷有些来回。现在，特斯拉重新夺回了这个纪录，这是非常棒的。然而，似乎这可能只是短暂的，我们很难确定这是否可信，但Instagram上有一些谣言，称这可能在一周内被另一个制造商打败，可能是保时捷或Remock。因此，我们将继续关注这个情况。
And then Elon did host his Twitter space today with Robert Kennedy Jr. I didn't catch all of it because Apple was doing their big vision pro announcement today, which, you know, we should probably talk about that at some point too. But I did happen to catch Elon mentioning that during his trip to China, he did talk with Chinese government officials about regulating AI and felt like they were receptive to it. How well that translates, I think remains to be seen, but thought it was worth sharing.
然后埃隆今天和罗伯特·肯尼迪Jr.主持了他们的Twitter直播间。我没有完全听完因为今天苹果发布了他们的大愿景pro的公告，你知道的，我们可能也应该在某个时候谈论一下这个。但我确实注意到埃隆提到了他在中国旅行期间与中国政府官员讨论关于监管人工智能，并感到他们对此持开放态度。我认为这件事的翻译效果有待观察，但认为值得分享。
And then also, apparently today is the first day for Linda Yacarino to start her CEO position at Twitter.
今天似乎是Linda Yacarino在Twitter担任CEO的第一天。
Lastly, then just a quick look ahead at the calendar this week should be pretty quiet from an economic reporting standpoint. But next week is going to be pretty crazy. We've got the CPI, PPI, and the June FOMC meeting all next week. So buckle up for that.
最后，请简要查看本周日历，从经济报道方面来看应该相当平静。但是下周将会非常疯狂。我们下周有CPI、PPI和六月份FOMC会议，所以请做好准备。
But that'll wrap it up for today. As always, thank you for listening. Make sure you're subscribed and signed up for notifications. Also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Tuesday, June 6 episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
今天的节目就到这里了。一如既往地感谢您的收听，确保您已订阅并开启了通知。同时，也请在Twitter上关注我，我的账号是Tesla podcast。明天我们将会在6月6日星期二的节目中再见。谢谢！