Markets Weekly June 3
发布时间 2023-06-03 20:09:57 来源
Hello my friends, today is June 3rd. My name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about three things. First, we'll talk about lifting the debt ceiling and its economic implications. Secondly, we'll talk about replenishing the Treasury General account and how it might impact markets. And lastly, we'll talk about the Fed skip, how it's very likely but not yet a done deal.
大家好，今天是6月3日。我叫约瑟夫，欢迎来到《市场周报》。本周我们将谈论以下三个方面。首先，我们将讨论取消债务上限及其经济影响。其次，我们将谈论如何补充国库总账户并可能影响市场。最后，我们将谈论美联储跳过加息的可能性很大，但尚未确定。
Okay, starting with the debt ceiling. As we all know, the debt ceiling was raised, to no one's surprise. As usual, there was some drama, but at the very last moment, there was a compromise, the debt ceiling was raised and everything went back to normal.
好的，先从债务上限开始说起。众所周知，债务上限被提高，这并不出人意料。通常情况下，这会引起一些戏剧性的情况，但在最后一刻达成了妥协，将债务上限提高了，一切都恢复了正常。
Now, going into the debt ceiling episode, my greatest concern was that it might result in a compromise with sizable federal spending cuts. If that were the case, then that could mean that the US could drift into recession later on in the year. After all, less federal spending means less demand in the economy.
现在，谈到债务上限事件，我的最大担心是它可能会导致大幅联邦支出削减的妥协。如果是这种情况，那么这可能意味着美国今年晚些时候可能陷入经济衰退。毕竟，联邦支出减少意味着经济需求减少。
To my surprise, the debt ceiling compromise actually involves very little in terms of spending cuts. What was most noteworthy was that student loan repayments are resuming. So in the US, oftentimes students borrow a lot of money to attend university because university is very expensive. Overall, there's about $1.6 trillion in student debt outstanding. There's about 40 some million people with student debt loans.
令我惊讶的是，关于限制债务上限的妥协实际上在支出削减方面涉及的内容非常少。最值得注意的是，学生贷款还款即将恢复。在美国，学生们通常会因为大学学费很贵而借大量钱去上学。总体而言，目前尚有约1.6万亿美元的学生贷款未偿还，大约有四千多万人面临着学生贷款的债务。
The typical monthly payment is about, say, $400 a month. Now, over the past few years, the government suspended payments on student loans as part of their COVID stimulus measures. So over the past few years, student loan borrowers didn't have to repay their debt. But starting in September, they're going to have to start paying again. And that means that each month, those 47 million borrowers are going to have to set aside a few $100 a month to make their student loan payments. That's money that could have otherwise been spent on restaurants or buying random stuff or buying socks and so forth. So it's going to have a mild drag on the economy. But the bigger picture is that there wasn't any meaningful reduction in the federal deficit.
典型的每月付款大约是400美元。过去几年，政府暂停了作为COVID刺激措施的一部分的学生贷款还款。因此，在过去的几年中，学生贷款借款人不必偿还债务。但从9月份开始，他们将不得不重新开始偿还贷款。这意味着每个月，这4700万借款人将不得不拨出几百美元来偿还学生贷款。这些钱本来可以用于餐馆消费或购买随意物品或购买袜子等等。因此，这将对经济产生轻微拖累。但更大的问题是，联邦赤字并没有得到任何实质性的减少。
Now at the moment, the federal deficit is projected to be about $1.5 trillion this year. And the Congressional Budget Office estimates it to be about $1.5 trillion to basically forever based on current law. Now, this is a really different world than how things were just 20 or 30 years ago. 20 or 30 years ago, we had many people worried about the deficit and trying to run a balanced budget. But there's a big cultural shift in how Congress approaches this now. So everyone is very comfortable with large deficits. And it makes sense from a politician perspective because in order to get elected, politicians have to promise people free stuff.
目前，联邦赤字预计将达到约1.5万亿美元。 根据现行法律，国会预算办公室估计这将持续下去，大约为1.5万亿美元。这与20或30年前的情况非常不同。在20或30年前，许多人担心赤字，并试图实现平衡预算。但是国会在处理这个问题时有了重大文化转变。现在每个人都非常习惯于大量的赤字。从政治家的角度来看，这是有意义的，因为为了当选，政治家必须向人民承诺免费东西。
No, that can be free money or free services to the general public or it could be tax breaks or federal contracts to big corporations. That's just the path of least resistance. It's also a path to a decade of high inflation. At a high level, you can think about deficit spending as say, buying goods and services, but paying for it by printing a shorter security. If you do that a lot, as we did, and let's say 2020, you get inflation. And we continue to have this inflationary drive of deficit spending. Now, if anything is for sure, it seems like that estimate from the Congressional Budget Office is likely an underestimate because it's based on current law.
不，这可能是向大众提供免费金钱或服务，或是向大企业提供免税或联邦合同。这只是最便捷的路线。但这也是通向高通胀十年的路线。你可以想象一下赤字支出就像是用短期债券来购买商品和服务，但是印刷短期债券的次数过多，就像我们在2020年作的那样，就会出现通胀。而我们继续保持这种赤字支出的通胀驱动力。现在，唯一确定的是，国会预算办公室的估算可能是低估的，因为它是基于现行法律的。
If over the past few years, there's always new spending bills every year that continues to add to government spending. So the deficit over the next coming years is likely a lot higher than, let's say, $2 trillion a year. And that is core to my thesis of a decade of high inflation.
过去几年来，每年都有新的支出法案，继续增加政府支出。因此，未来几年的赤字很可能比每年2万亿美元高得多。这是我“十年高通胀”的论点的核心。
Okay, now let's talk about the second topic. Rebuilding the Treasury General Count. Now, after the debt ceiling is raised, the Treasury has a lot of room to issue a lot of Treasury securities. One of the first things it wants to do is to top up its checking account. The Treasury, like everyone else, has a checking account. It's at the Federal Reserve, instead of a commercial bank, and it's called the Treasury General Count.
好的，现在我们开始讨论第二个话题，重建财政部总账。现在，在债务上限被提高之后，财政部有足够的空间发行许多国债。其中它想做的第一件事就是充实它的支票账户。财政部和其他人一样，也有一个支票账户。它在联邦储备银行而不是商业银行，称为财政部总账。
Now, today, it has about, let's say, $27 billion in that account. It's really low. It's telling us that it wants to refill that account to about $550 billion by the end of June, and $600 billion by the end of September. Those are its targets that it's guided towards. They're not set in stone, but that's what it wants to do. So that means that it has to source about $500 billion of cash to go into its Treasury General Count. That means that someone somewhere in the financial system is going to lose $500 or so billion of cash, because it's going to go out of their account into the Treasury General Count.
现在，它的账户里大概有270亿美元。这非常低。这表明它想在6月底将账户余额充入大约5500亿美元，到9月底将其充入6000亿美元左右。这些是其指导的目标。虽然它们不是铁板钉钉的，但这就是它想要做的。这意味着它必须筹集大约5000亿的现金，并将其投入财政部的账户。这意味着在金融系统中的某个地方，将有人失去大约5000亿美元的现金，因为这些现金要从他们的账户中转入财政部的账户。
Now, there are two sources of cash to refill the Treasury General Count. One, is it could come from a reverse repo facility, which you can think of as just this huge pool of excess liquidity in the financial system as a result of quantitative easing, or it could come out of cash held in the banking system. And where the cash comes from to refill the Treasury General Count depends on who buys the newly issued Treasuries.
现在，有两种现金来源可以填补国库总账户的空缺。一种是通过反向回购机制，您可以将其视为由于量化宽松而在金融系统中形成的巨大的过剩流动性池，另一种是来自银行系统中持有的现金。填补国库总账户的现金来源取决于谁购买新发行的国债。
So let's say that the US Treasury issued $1,000 in Treasury Securities. If it were bought by a money market fund, what the money market fund would do is it would withdraw money out of the reverse repo facility and use it to buy the Treasury Securities. Money then would flow out of the reverse repo facility and into the Treasury General Count. That's case one.
假设美国财政部发行了1000美元的国债，如果这些国债被货币市场基金购买，那么货币市场基金所做的是从逆回购业务中提取资金并用于购买国债。这样一来，资金会从逆回购业务流出并进入财政部的一般账户。这是第一种情况。
Now, case two is suppose an investor like you and me went and bought $1,000 in Treasury Securities. We'd have to pay for that with money we hold in the commercial banks. And so money would flow out of the commercial banking sector and into the Treasury General Count. Now, these two are commonly thought of having different market implications because when you're taking money out of the reverse repo facility, you're taking basically money that no one really needs.
现在，案例二假设像你和我这样的投资者购买了1,000美元的国债证券，我们得用自己在商业银行持有的资金来支付。因此，资金将从商业银行部门流出，流向国库普通账户。现在，这两者通常被认为具有不同的市场影响，因为当你从逆回购设施中取走钱时，你实际上是从没有真正需要的钱中获取资金。
It's just kind of a huge lot of excess cash as a legacy from large quantitative easing. But when you're taking money out of the banking system, well, that means that the investor community basically has less cash. Let's say that you are a big institutional investor and you purchased a $1,000 worth of Treasury Securities. That means you have a $1,000 less cash and in exchange, you have a $1,000 more in Treasury Securities.
这其实只是大规模量化宽松政策留下的大量多余现金。但当你把钱从银行系统中取出来，就意味着投资者社区基本上会少些现金。假设你是一个大型机构投资者，购买了价值1,000美元的国库券，那么你就少了1,000美元的现金，并以1,000美元的国库券作为交换。
In a sense, rebuilding the TGA can be thought of as a type of quantitative timing, less cash in the financial system, more Treasury Securities. The way that I like to think about the impact of QT and QE is that when you have QE, you flood the financial system with a lot of cash. And someone somewhere says, I don't want to hold all this cash. Instead, I want to hold more stocks, more bonds or higher-yielding Treasuries.
从某种意义上说，重建TGA可以被认为是一种定量时间，少量现金在金融系统中，更多的国债。我喜欢认为QT和QE的影响方式是，当您进行QE时，您会向金融系统注入大量现金。于是有人会说，我不想持有这么多现金。相反，我想持有更多的股票、债券或收益更高的国债。
After all, cash gives me a yield of zero and there's some counterparty risk because the bank could default. So the more cash I have, the more I have demand for financial assets. Now QT works in the opposite. It takes cash out of the financial system and replaces them with Treasuries. And when you think of it that way, that means you have investors who have less cash and are holding Treasury Securities. So they have less of a demand to buy other financial assets because they're receiving some yield on their Treasury Securities and it's a safe asset.
毕竟，现金的回报率为零，并存在某些交易对手风险，因为银行可能会违约。所以，我拥有的现金越多，我对金融资产的需求就越大。现金收缩则相反。它将现金从金融系统中取出，并用国库券替换它们。当你这样考虑时，这意味着你有一些投资者拥有较少的现金，并持有国库券。因此，他们对购买其他金融资产的需求减少了，因为他们正在国库券上获得一些回报，并且国库券是安全的资产。
Now, of case A or case B, I think it's more likely that the TGA rebuild will actually come out of cash held in the banking sector. This is because at the moment, bill yields are just not very attractive to the money market funds. They can earn more money just by keeping cash in the university bill facility. Over time, this is going to change because the US Treasury is going to issue a lot of bills and eventually the supply of bills will be so high that the bill yields will rise and money market funds will want to buy them. But I think that's sometime in the future.
对于方案A或方案B，我认为重建TGA更有可能通过银行部门持有的现金来实现。现在，票据收益率对货币市场基金来说并不非常有吸引力。他们可以通过将现金保持在大学票据设施中赚更多的钱。随着时间的推移，情况会发生变化，因为美国财政部将发行大量的票据，最终票据的供应将如此之高，票据收益率将上升，货币市场基金将想要购买它们。但我认为那是在将来的某个时候。
So what's most likely in my view is that over the next, say, two months, you have a significant drain of cash held in banks out of the banks and into the Treasury General account. And I think that will be a headwind for financial assets. How much a headwind though is hard to say because asset prices are in part psychological. You have this mechanical rebalancing impact that's going to be a headwind.
在我看来，最有可能发生的是，在接下来的两个月内，银行中持有的现金将大量流出银行，并转移到国库一般账户。我认为，这将对金融资产构成一种阻力。然而，这种阻力到底有多大很难说，因为资产价格在某种程度上是心理上的。这种机械性的再平衡影响将成为一种阻力。
But you also don't really know what investors' beliefs are. I mean, look at what's happening in the market this past week. A lot of people believe that AI is the future. And so it's really buying a lot of AI stocks. At the moment, it sounds like there's a lot of people who believe that the Treasury, the Qudidi drain is going to have an impact on market prices.
你也不太知道投资者的信念究竟是什么。我是说，看看过去这一周市场上的情况。很多人相信人工智能是未来的趋势，因此他们正在大量购买人工智能股票。目前，似乎很多人相信财政部的Qudidi流出会对市场价格产生影响。
So again, it's going to be a headwind in the next two months. Okay, the next topic and the final topic I'll talk about today is the Fed skip. Now as we discussed last week, Governor Waller, a voting member on the FOMC gave his outlook for the June FOMC. He says there are three options.
再说一次，这将是接下来两个月的阻碍。好的，下一个话题也是我今天讲的最后一个话题是Fed跳票。现在，正如上周所讨论的，FOMC的投票成员Governor Waller给出了他对6月FOMC的展望。他说有三个选项。
One, we don't hike and we tell everyone that we are at the terminal rates. We're going to keep rates at around 5% for the rest of the year. He says that he's really not in that camp and he thinks that's really unlikely. What he is saying though is that he thinks two other paths are more likely. One is that they hike in June and two is that they don't hike in June and instead hike in July. That is to say they skip.
首先，我们不会提高利率并告诉所有人我们维持终端利率。我们将在今年剩下的时间里将利率保持在大约5%左右。他说他不是这个阵营的一员，他认为这很不可能。不过他的意思是他认为另外两种路径更有可能。一种是在6月加息，另一种是不在6月加息，而是在7月加息。换句话说，他们会跳过6月份。
Now Governor Waller suggested that he's in the camp of either hiking in June or skipping and hiking July. Once he made that speech, the market began to price in more of a probability of a June rate hike. When I say the market, I'm looking at so for futures which you can see at the CMU's website. It's public.
现任州长沃勒建议，他倾向于在六月进行加息或跳过六月，并在七月进行加息。一旦他发表了这个讲话，市场开始将六月加息的概率计入定价。当我提到市场时，我指的是在CMU网站上可以看到的利率期货。这是公开的。
Now this past week, we had someone else who was also important, future Vice Chair Jefferson give us a speech and say that he is in the skip camp. That is to say he doesn't want to hike in June but he's open to hiking in July. Now when he said that, the market began to think that the Fed is not going to hike in June, maybe they'll hike in July.
在过去的那个星期，我们还邀请了另一位重要人物，未来的副主席杰弗逊给我们发表演讲，他表示自己选择“跳过六月”的阵营，也就是不想在六月加息，但愿意在七月加息。当他这样说的时候，市场开始认为美联储不会在六月加息，可能会在七月加息。
But after he said that note that we also had really hot employment data, the Friday non-farm payroll data came in higher than expected and the prior two reports were also revised higher. Now that sends a message that the economy is doing better than expected. Now the Friday payroll report also showed that the unemployment rate ticked a bit higher but I think the overall picture over the past few months is a U.S. economy that continues to chug along and create jobs.
但在他说了那些话之后，我们也得到了真正令人振奋的就业数据，周五的非农就业数据高于预期，前两份报告也被修正为更高的数字。这表明经济比预期更好。周五的工资单报告还显示失业率略微上升，但我认为过去几个月的总体情况是美国经济仍在继续增长，并创造就业机会。
Now the Fed, being better data dependent, well they have to look at this and have more of a probability of a June rate hike. So in my view, a June hike is still possible, though not the base case, simply because Jefferson is such a strong stand in favor of a skip. But between now and then there's a couple more things to watch.
现在，美联储更加依赖数据，因此他们必须看到这个情况，并更有可能在6月加息。从我的观点来看，6月加息仍然是可能的，尽管不是基本情况，仅因为杰弗逊非常强烈地支持跳过加息。但在那之前还有几件事情需要关注。
Right before the FOMC conclusion, right before the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting, the FOMC is going to get a glimpse of CPI. And so if CPI is really hot in conjunction with a strong non-farm payroll report we had this week, I think that makes it pretty compelling case stuff to hike in June. On top of that, one of the things that the Fed watches is asset prices.
在FOMC做出决定之前，也就是在6月FOMC会议结束之前，FOMC将会了解CPI的情况。因此，如果CPI与本周强劲的非农就业报告一起爆发，我认为这将是六月加息的非常有说服力的理由。此外，联邦储备银行观察的另一件事是资产价格。
So monetary policy works in many different ways but one of the ways it works is by reducing asset prices. So if you have, let's see if the stock market goes down, then people have less wealth, they're less likely to be spending on goods and services and that cools the economy. Over the past two weeks, we've seen the stock market basically rocket higher up basically every day and perhaps that will continue. I don't know.
货币政策的作用方式有很多，其中之一就是通过降低资产价格来起作用。如果股市下跌，那么人们的财富减少，他们不太可能购买商品和服务，这会抑制经济。在过去的两周里，我们看到股市基本上每天都在飙升，或许这种趋势会继续下去，我不确定。
But if you're the Fed and you're seeing strong job data, strong asset prices and maybe even higher than expected inflation, which we don't know until the CPI is out, then you kind of have to be in the hike camp. So June in my view is not necessarily a skip. However though, if they do skip, there's also ways the Fed can communicate a hawker skip because June is one of those meetings where the Fed will review a new dot plot.
但是，如果你是联邦储备委员会，看到强劲的就业数据、强劲的资产价格，甚至可能出现高于预期的通货膨胀，虽然我们在消费者物价指数出来之前不会知道，那么你就必须支持加息。因此，在我看来，六月并不一定是放弃加息。然而，如果他们确实放弃加息，联邦储备委员会也有办法传递出鹰派的“跳过”的决定，因为六月是联邦储备委员会将审查新的点阵图的一次会议。
A dot plot is a way for a Fed FOMC members to show what their forecast is for rates and inflation and unemployment over the next few years. If the Fed were to skip in June, they can easily show a more aggressive dot plot where they guide towards a higher terminal rate. So although they could skip in June, they could still make a hawkish message by having a hawkish dot plot.
点状图是联邦公开市场委员会成员展示未来几年利率、通胀和失业率预测的一种方式。如果美联储在六月决议会议上不改变利率，他们可以通过更加积极的点状图表明他们对更高的终止利率的引导。因此，尽管他们可以在六月跳过改变利率，但他们仍可以通过有鹰派倾向的点状图传达出鹰派的信息。
So I think what it comes down to will really be CPI and how the stock market performs over the next few weeks. Okay, so that's why I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you like what I'm producing, please remember to like and subscribe. And if you're interested in learning more about the financial markets, check out my free courses at centralbanking101.com. Links will be in the description below. Talk to you all next week.
因此，我认为它最终会归结为CPI和股市在接下来的几周表现如何。好的，这就是我为今天做的准备。非常感谢你们收听。如果你喜欢我的节目，请记得点赞和订阅。如果你对了解金融市场感兴趣，可以在centralbanking101.com免费学习课程。链接将在下面的描述中提供。我们下周再见。