Markets Weekly May 27
发布时间 2023-05-27 20:40:07 来源
Hello my friends, today is May 27th, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. Now this week was super exciting in markets so we have quite a few things to talk about.
大家好，今天是5月27日，我是Joseph，欢迎收看今期的《市场周报》。本周市场非常精彩，因此我们有很多事情可以讨论。
First off we got to talk about what's happening in the tech sector. It seems like the tech stocks just go up and up and up every single day. What's going on there?
首先，我们需要谈谈科技行业正在发生什么。似乎科技股票每天都在一路飙升。这是怎么回事呢？
The second thing we'll talk about is we'll take a little bit of a detour and we'll talk about what's happening in the Eurozone and in the UK because markets are connected and what happens there impacts what's happening in the US as well.
接下来我们将稍微离题，讨论一下欧元区和英国目前的状况，因为市场是相互联系的，那里发生的事情也会影响到美国的局势。
And lastly, what's how about how the market seems to finally be on the same page as the Fed when it comes to pricing in rate hikes this year?
最后，市场对于今年加息的定价似乎终于与美联储达成了一致，你有什么看法？
Okay, let's start with the tech sector. So let's take a step back and look at the three major market indexes over the past year. Which is eight, NASDAQ is up about 25%, S&P is up about 10%, and the Dow Jones industrial average is about flat. So tech has been strongly overperforming the other stocks.
好的，我们从科技领域开始。让我们先回顾一下过去一年内的三个主要市场指数。其中，纳斯达克指数上涨了约25%，标准普尔指数上涨了约10%，而道琼斯工业平均指数基本持平。因此，科技股表现得比其他股票强劲。
What seems to be happening is that there's a lot of interest in AI in the tech sector. So as many of you recall a few months ago, ChatGPT, Logged and ChatGPT was thought of as many by many people as something that's truly revolutionary that will really change the way we do things.
看起来正在发生的事情是科技行业对人工智能有很大的兴趣。因此，正如你们中的许多人可能还记得几个月前，ChatGPT、Logged和ChatGPT被很多人认为是真正的革命性产品，将真正改变我们做事的方式。
And unsurprisingly, many of the largest tech companies are capitalizing on this. So you have Google announcing AI stuff, you have Microsoft announcing AI stuff, you have Facebook announcing AI stuff. In fact, if you look at a company whose ticker is literally AI, you'll see that that company, even though it doesn't do any cutting edge AI stuff, actually doubled just this month.
毫不意外，许多大型科技公司正在利用这一点。因此，Google宣布了人工智能技术，微软宣布了人工智能技术，Facebook宣布了人工智能技术。实际上，如果你看一个股票代码为AI的公司，你会发现这家公司即使并没有进行前沿的人工智能技术，仅本月就翻了一倍。
So there's tremendous amounts of interest in AI, and that seems to be driving tech sector higher. Now if you're interested in AI, you all need one thing. You need to have good hardware to power all the complicated AI calculations. There's actually basically only one company that designs these cutting edge AI hardware stuff, and that's Nvidia.
目前人工智能方面有非常大的兴趣，这看起来也在推动技术领域的发展。如果你对此感兴趣，就需要一件事情——优秀的硬件来支撑所有复杂的人工智能计算。实际上，目前只有一家公司设计了这种尖端的人工智能硬件设备，那就是英伟达。
So you're to date until their earnings call this past week, Nvidia had actually doubled your to date. Now it doubled heading into their earnings call. Now their earnings call, as many of you have heard, triggered a huge, huge upward surge in their prices, where after their earnings call, their share price basically went up 25 percent in a day.
直到上一周的 Nvidia 公布收益电话之前，你的投资收益已经翻倍了。而在这个电话之后，你的投资又翻倍了。正如许多人所听到的那样，他们的收益电话触发了价格的大大上升，在他们发布了收益电话之后，其股价在一天内上涨了25％。
Now Nvidia is a pretty large company. It's already a several hundred billion dollars in market cap, but it went up 25 percent in a day like a penny stock. Now people are very excited what they announced at their earnings call. So from a quarter over quarter basis, actually, their sales were down about 10 percent.
现在Nvidia是一家相当大的公司。它的市值已经几百亿美元，但是它在一天内上涨了25%，就像一只便士股票。现在人们非常兴奋，因为他们在财报电话会议上宣布的内容。实际上，从季度对比的角度来看，他们的销售额下降了约10%。
This past quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but they guided higher for their current quarter. Analysts were expecting that their current quarter will have sales about 7 billion, but they were saying that their current quarter sales looked to be about 11 billion, noting that there's tremendous demand for their products due to the excitement in AI.
与去年同期相比，本季度的业绩有所提升，但他们对当前季度的业绩提出了更高的预期。分析师们预计他们当前季度的销售额会在70亿左右，但他们表示，由于人工智能引发的热潮，他们当前季度的销售额似乎将达到110亿左右，这表明他们的产品需求非常强大。
And that basically let a fire under their stock price and brought the risk of the tech sector higher. And so again, there seems to be a lot of excitement here.
这基本上让他们的股票价格飙升，也提高了科技行业的风险。因此，这里似乎又出现了很多激动人心的事情。
Now this is something that we've seen before, and I'm not talking about the 2000s when we had a big tech bubble. I'm talking about what happened two years ago with crypto. Now crypto was also a very interesting technology and it drew a lot of excitement, companies that had crypto in their description or were telling investors that they were a crypto company, saw their stock price go to the moon.
这是我们以前见过的事情，我不是在谈论2000年代我们遭遇大的科技泡沫。我指的是两年前发生的加密货币事件。加密货币也是一个非常有趣的技术，它引起了很多的兴奋，那些在公司描述中或告诉投资者它们是加密货币公司的公司，看到股票价格一飞冲天。
And we saw many companies like Coinbase go public to very large valuations. Now fast forward to today, if you look at all those companies that were involved in crypto, they are not doing as well as they used to.
我们看到像Coinbase这样的许多公司公开上市，并获得了非常高的估值。现在快进到今天，如果你看看所有涉足加密货币的公司，它们的表现已经不如过去了。
意思：过去加密货币领域的公司有很多在上市初期获得了很高的市值。但是现在，如果观察这些曾经涉足加密货币的公司，它们的表现已经没有之前那么好了。
Coinbase for example, could still be a very interesting company with a very bright future, but their share price is a fraction of what it was when they first IPO'd. Now if you're looking at a stock like Nvidia that has a really good story because they're powering the future of AI, and you can have to try to figure out just how much, what's the right price for this stock?
以Coinbase为例，它可能仍然是一家非常有趣、未来光明的公司，但其股价仅是首次公开募股时的一小部分。现在，如果你观察像英伟达这样的股票，它有一个非常好的故事，因为它在推动人工智能的未来，你必须要试图想出它的合理价格是多少？
So this week, it went from $300 to $400. And I'm guessing there's going to be people who are willing to buy it at $500, $600, and so forth. If you are a traditional investor, you would look at stock prices from the perspective of something like price earnings, price of sales, and so forth. And you wouldn't be investing in the stock.
这个星期，它的价格从$300上涨到$400。我猜可能还有人愿意在$500、$600等价格买入。如果你是一个传统的投资者，你会从价格收益、销售价格等角度来看待股票价格。因此，你不会选择投资这只股票。
But the truth is, I think that I'm not sure that perspective has been very useful in investing the past several years actually. It seems what dry stocks hire is having a good story and stuff like options positioning, where as we will see in the past, if you have a lot of people buying claws in a stock that can push the stock higher.
但事实是，我认为这种的投资观点在过去几年并没有非常有用。现在看来，投资者更注重的是公司的故事以及期权等因素，而如果一个股票有很多人购买它，它的价格就会上涨。
So I'm getting a sense just looking at all this excitement in the tech sector that this is very similar to what we saw during the big frenzy in crypto. And we all know how that ended. And I suspect something like that would happen here as well. No, I'm not saying that crypto, I'm not saying that this AI stuff is going to implode or anything. But when you see something go up and up and up and straight up, usually, usually it also can exhibit the same amount of volatility downward.
我从科技行业的狂热情绪中感到了一种相似的氛围，这与加密货币大狂潮时期非常相似。我们都知道那时怎么结束的。我怀疑这里也可能会发生类似的情况。不，我不是说加密货币，我也不是说人工智能会崩溃什么的。但是当你看到一些东西一路上涨，通常也会同样地出现同等程度的下跌波动。
Now broadly speaking, the economy is slowing, the Fed is hiking. And as we'll talk about later, the market is beginning to understand that. And if you look at the rest of the stocks in the stock market, they're not going to be doing that well. So I think my best judgment is that these euphoria that we're seeing right now is going to definitely down a lot in the coming months. But I've been wrong before. I certainly didn't expect that the Nasdaq was sore this week. But I would be cautious. So that's how I think about that.
总的来说，经济正在放缓，美联储正在加息。正如我们稍后会谈论到的那样，市场开始意识到这一点。如果你看一下股市中其它的股票，它们的表现不会很好。所以我认为，目前我们看到的这种狂热肯定会在未来几个月里逐渐消退。但是我以前也犯过错。我当然没料到纳斯达克本周会这么糟糕。但是我会谨慎对待。这就是我对此的看法。
Now, going to our next topic. Let's talk about what's happening across the pod in the EU and in the UK. Now those countries are very similar to the US in a lot of ways. There's similar political institutions, similar policy tools, and at the moment also very similar economic problems. So over the past few years, the Fed has been very concerned about inflation. And indeed, inflation was as high as 9%. Last year, it's now down to about 5%.
现在，我们来谈一下我们接下来的话题。让我们谈谈在欧盟和英国海外正在发生的事情。这些国家在很多方面与美国非常相似。有相似的政治机构、相似的政策工具，而且目前也有非常相似的经济问题。过去几年中，美联储非常关注通货膨胀问题。实际上，通货膨胀率曾高达9%。去年，它降到了约5%。
The same thing happened in the EU and in the UK, but actually to a more significant extent. Right now, inflation is still about 10% year over year in the UK, and about 8% year over year in the EU. The causes of inflation there are broadly similar to what they were here. You had supply constraints, you had labor shortages, and you had sizeable fiscal stimulus.
同样的情况也发生在欧盟和英国，但事实上程度更为显著。现在，英国的通货膨胀率仍在年同比约10%，欧盟则在年同比约8%左右。那里的通货膨胀原因与这里的大体相似。你有供应限制，你有劳动力短缺，还有相当规模的财政刺激。
A big difference between the US and over there is that energy and food. So the US is a big producer of energy and food. They export it to the rest of the world and they're self-sufficient. But the Eurozone and the UK import a lot of their energy and a lot of their food. So when you had political disruptions in Eastern Europe, the price of energy went up, the price of food went up, and that fed directly into their inflation numbers. So even though the US inflation has come down a lot to 5%, over there, it's still stuck at very high levels.
美国与其他地方很大的差异就在于能源和食品。美国是能源和食品的大生产国，他们将其出口到世界其他地方，并且自给自足。但是欧元区和英国却大量进口他们所需的能源和食品。因此当东欧发生政治动荡时，能源和食品的价格上涨，直接导致了通胀率上升。因此虽然美国的通胀率已经下降到了5％，但在其他地方，它仍然停留在非常高的水平。
The good news is that the expectation is that inflation is going to come down rapidly over the next few months. That makes sense because when we look at things like food prices and oil prices, they were really high last year and over the past several months have gradually come down a lot. So the expectation is that their inflation will drop rapidly, but it doesn't seem like it's going to go back to 2%. Unless of course you are central banker, then you make projections. That's say something like that. But at the moment, when you look at their inflation numbers, their core inflation numbers look a lot like the core inflation numbers in the US. That is to say around 45%.
好消息是，预计通货膨胀将在未来几个月内迅速下降。这是有道理的，因为当我们看到像食品价格和石油价格这样的事情时，去年它们确实非常高，但在过去几个月里已经逐渐下降了很多。因此，预计它们的通货膨胀将迅速下降，但似乎不会回到2%。除非当然您是央行家，那么您就可以进行预测。但目前，当您查看他们的通货膨胀数据时，他们的核心通货膨胀数据看起来与美国的核心通货膨胀数据非常相似，即在约45%左右。
Now, the drivers of high core inflation in the US, so core inflation is just inflation, excluding food and energy, is largely wages. So we are service driven economies and the largest cost in services is wages. In the US, we have a later version shortage. Wages are going up 5% year over year, and something broadly similar is happening in the EU and the UK. Now, there's this big demographic shift where as our population age, there are fewer and fewer people entering the workforce. That's pulling a role over there as it is over here.
美国高核心通胀率的驱动因素，主要是工资。所谓核心通胀率就是除食品和能源之外的通胀率。我们的经济是以服务业为主，而服务业的最大成本就是工资。美国目前遇到了劳动力短缺问题。工资每年上涨5%，在欧盟和英国也有类似情况。现在，随着人口老龄化，进入劳动力市场的人越来越少，这个人口结构变化在这里和其他地方都产生了影响。
I think in addition to that, in the UK, at least they have more people going to school and so that also takes people out of the labor market. Now, we care about what happens over there is because global markets are interconnected.
我认为除此之外，在英国，至少有更多的人去上学，所以这也使得劳动市场上的人数减少。现在我们关心英国发生的事情是因为全球市场相互关联。
Now, in response to what those central banks at the Bank of England and the ECB are seeing the data, they are also talking about holding rates higher for longer. That's going to feed in to the US financial markets because bond markets are interconnected and it's going to have currency impacts as well.
现在，为了回应英国银行和欧洲央行所看到的数据，他们也在谈论保持更高利率的时间更长。这将影响美国金融市场，因为债券市场是相互关联的，同时也会对货币产生影响。
Now, I suspect that even though the UK and the ECB are going to keep their rates higher for longer, they're probably not going to be able to raise rates as aggressively as the Fed simply because for the monetary policy is actually more effective than it is in the US.
现在，我怀疑虽然英国和欧洲央行将会保持更高的利率，但他们可能不会像美联储那样积极地提高利率，因为货币政策在这些国家的实际影响要更有效。
A lot of their mortgages, for example, are either short term, let's say within five years or floating. So when they height the rates a little bit, their households immediately feel that, or at least feel that pretty quickly and so cut back on spending because they have to pay higher mortgage payments and that will slow their economy pretty quickly so they don't actually have to height rate super aggressively to slow their economies down. Whereas here, well, we have basically everyone refinance that 3 to 4 percent mortgages, the fact that can height the 5 percent but that doesn't really impact a lot of households.
他们的很多房贷，比如说，要么是短期的，比如在五年以内，要么就是浮动的。所以当他们稍微提高利率时，他们的家庭立刻感受到，或者至少很快就会感受到，于是就会削减开支，因为他们必须支付更高的房贷，这将很快减缓他们的经济增长，所以他们实际上不必过于进攻性地提高利率来降低经济增长速度。然而，在这里，我们基本上已经将3%到4%的房贷都重新融资了，因此即使提高到5%，也不会对很多家庭产生影响。
And I think that's part of the reason why the economies continue to chug along here, even though rates have been so aggressively raised.
我认为这部分是经济继续保持平稳的原因之一，尽管利率已经被大幅提高了。
Okay, the last point we're talking about today is what's happening with the Fed.
好的，今天我们要谈论的最后一个点是美联储正在发生的事情。意思是：我们要讨论美国联邦储备委员会正在发生什么。
Now over the past few weeks, now the Fed has said that they're going to keep rates about 5 percent or more and keep that for the rest of the year but the market has been aggressively pricing in rate cuts.
在过去的几周里，美联储表示他们将会维持利率在5%左右，并保持这个水平到年底。但市场一直在积极地预测利率会降低。
You've been, if you've been following me, I've been telling you that the market is totally wrong and eventually they're going to have to converge to where the Fed is and we saw that happen to a big extent today, this past week.
如果你一直在关注我，就会发现我一直在说市场是完全错误的，最终他们将不得不趋于联邦储备委员会的思路，我们在上周看到了这种趋势已经发生了相当大的变化。
So two things happen this week that change the market's mind.
这个星期发生了两件事情，改变了市场的看法。
This was a speech by a voting member, Governor Waller, who has been really right on monetary policy over the past couple of years.
这是一位投票成员，沃勒州长的讲话，他在过去几年的货币政策方面非常正确。
In this speech, he says that for the June meeting, there are three options.
在这篇演讲中，他说在六月会议上有三个选择。这意味着在六月份的会议上，会有三种可供选择的方案。
One is that the Fed pauses and marks the end of the rate, hiking cycle.
其中一个是美联储暂停并标志着加息周期的结束。
The Fed is just done.
美联储已经处理完了。
It's just going to hold rates here for the rest of the year.
它只是会将利率维持在当前水平，直至年底。
The second option is that in June, the Fed actually skips June and hikes July.
第二个选择是，联邦储备委员会在六月份跳过加息，并在七月份进行加息。
It skips June, it wants to see more data with the strong hand that would hike in July.
它跳过了6月，希望在七月加息前看到更多的数据，以更有力的方式掌控。
The third option is to just straight up hike in June.
第三个选择就是直接在六月徒步旅行。这意味着在六月份去徒步旅行。
Governor Waller strongly suggested that he is not in the pause camp, that he wants to hike rates just he doesn't know if it's June or July.
华勒州长强烈建议他不是停止加息阵营的一员，他希望加息，只是他不知道是在六月还是七月加息。
That's in the very strong signal that the Fed actually isn't done with the rate hike cycle.
这是一个非常强烈的信号，表明联邦储备委员会实际上并未结束加息周期。
The second piece of news is that we got new inflation data.
第二条新闻是我们获得了新的通货膨胀数据。
The Fed's favorite measure of inflation is the PCE index.
美联储最喜欢使用的通胀测量指标是PCE指数。该指标是计算私人消费支出和投资中的价格变化情况，以评估宏观经济稳定性和通货膨胀压力。
The PCE index shows what many have suspected.
PCE指数显示了许多人一直以来所怀疑的情况。表明已有迹象呈现。
That is that the Fed really hasn't done much in its fight against inflation.
这意味着美联储在打击通胀方面实际上没有采取多少行动。
On a month over a month basis, Core PCE rose 0.4%.
按月度计算，核心PCE上涨了0.4%。核心PCE是一个衡量个人消费支出价格变化的指标。
Last month, it was 0.3%.
上个月它是0.3%。这句话表明上个月某个东西（可能是物价、通货膨胀等）的增长率或百分比为0.3%，说明其增长缓慢。
It's basically been around 0.4 to 0.5.
这基本上是在0.4到0.5之间。这句话的意思是说，一个数值在0.4到0.5之间。
Sometimes 0.6 over the past several months.
在过去几个月中出现了0.6的变化。
（注：原文可能有一定的语法问题，翻译尽量按照上下文的意思进行表达。）
On a month over a month basis.
每个月都如此。
意思是每个月都重复同样的情况或者是每个月都有相似的结果。
On a year over a year basis, PCE has basically been stocked just below 5% for the past several months as well.
按年度计算，过去几个月中个人消费支出基本上保持在5%以下。
The Fed has hiked rates a lot and you can either say that, well, it just hasn't taken effect yet or you can look at this and say that, well, it doesn't seem to be doing anything.
美联储已经多次加息，可能有人会认为这只是尚未见效，也有人会认为这根本就没有产生任何效果。
I think the market saw the most recent PCE data, heard commentary from Waller as well as other Fed speakers.
我认为市场看过了最新的个人消费支出数据，也听到了沃勒以及其他联储委员会发言人的评论。
意思是指，市场关注了最新的PCE数据以及来自联储委员会发言人的评论。其中，沃勒是联储委员会的一名成员，其发言会对市场产生一定的影响。
It's beginning to think that maybe the inflation really is entrenched.
开始有人开始认为通货膨胀可能真的已经扎根了。
Maybe the Fed is not done with the hike cycle.
也许美联储的加息周期还没有结束。
意思是可能会再次加息。
We see this coming out showing up in market pricing like the dollar or the dollar strength in meaningfully this past week and also the 10 year yield went up quite a bit this past week as well.
我们可以看到这个趋势在市场价格中显现，比如美元的汇率和美元的实力在过去一周里有了明显的提高，而且10年期债券收益率也在过去一周里有了相当大的上涨。
I would expect that to actually filter into other asset prices as well.
我希望这将实际过滤进其他资产价格中。
You can see that excluding the AI-oriented tech stocks, the bottom market actually is doing all that well.
您会发现，除去以人工智能为导向的科技股之外，整个市场其实表现并不那么好。
Perhaps as time goes on, as more and more of this pricing seeps into different asset classes, we'll also see it drive down some of the high-flying tech stocks.
或许随着时间的推移，随着这种价格策略渗透到不同的资产类别中，我们也会看到它将高飞的科技股股价推向下降。
Okay, so that's all I've prepared for today.
好的，今天我准备的就这些。这句话的意思是结束了今天的准备工作。
Hopefully, if you like what I'm producing, please remember to like and subscribe.
希望您喜欢我所制作的内容，如果是这样，请记得点赞和订阅。
And if you're interested in learning more about the markets, check out my free online courses at CentralBanking101.com.
如果你对了解市场更感兴趣，欢迎访问CentralBanking101.com查看我的免费在线课程。
Alright, talk to you guys next week.
好的，下周再和大家聊。