E130: DeSantis's Twitter Spaces, debt ceiling, Nvidia rips, state of VC, startup failure & more
发布时间 2023-05-26 21:08:51 来源
Look at John Quincy Adams here. Yeah, hey, hey Quincy, how you doing? That hair! Look at that hair. John Quincy Adams needed a way to achieve this look. He did, he did. I did it all natural. I mean, it's a lot. It's a look. You're like some movie star from the 1970s who are still working.
看这里的约翰·昆西·亚当斯。是的，嘿，嘿，昆西，你好吗？那头发！看看那头发。约翰·昆西·亚当斯需要一种方法来达到这个效果。他找到了，他找到了。我是自然达成的。我的意思是，这真的很棒。这是一个造型。你就像那些还在工作的1970年代的电影明星一样。
Do me a favor, pull up a picture of Graydon Carter for a second and then put that side by side with Sacks. Let's see. Just see how zoom in on that. Sacks, this is where you're headed by the law. You're headed to Crazy Town. This is where you're headed. You can just poof it out on the sides and you get a little woof swoop on the top. Crazy town. This is where you're headed.
请帮我一个忙，先找一张 Graydon Carter 的照片，然后再与 Sacks 的照片并排放在一起，看看两者的差距。把它们放大一下看看。Sacks，这就是法律将要让你走向的疯狂之地。你将会像这个样子，两侧凸出，顶部微微向上卷曲。疯狂之地，这就是你的去处。
Accentric Sacks. Pull up a picture of Steve Bannon's hair. He's a wise statesman. I think this is what happens. When you get too close to power, you get more eccentric with your hair. So like too much power equals crazy hair. Now look, this is my theory. Graydon Carter, too much power of vanity fair. He went hair crazy. Now you look at Bannon.
离奇包。找一张史蒂夫·班农的头发照片。他是一位明智的政治家。我想这就是发生的事情。当你离权力太近，你的头发就会变得更怪异。所以过度的权力等于疯狂的头发。现在看，这是我的理论。格雷顿·卡特太过于掌握《名利场》的权力。他疯狂地改变了自己的头发。现在你看看班农。
You get me a Bannon photo here. You start to see they go longer, they go wafty, they just they get volume and they're just like, fuck it. I'm just, I'm not going to cut it. I'm going to let it go wild. And of course, the old, I mean, he's the penultimate. You look at Trump's hair. This is where it gets truly crazy. This is where you're headed, Sacks. You keep getting this close to power. This is where your hair is headed.
你在这里给我弄一张班农的照片。你开始看到，他们越长越乱，它们变得轻飘飘的，只是变得蓬松了，就像是“见鬼了，我不要剪了，我要让它们自由生长。”当然，老头的头发，他是头顶半个天。你看看特朗普的头发。这就是它真正变得疯狂的地方。Sacks，你一直在接近权力的边缘。你的头发也会变成这样。
I'm so glad this podcast never broke up because where would we get this amazing insight for J. Cal? I'm glad for keeping this all together, it makes it all worth it. It's very true. It is true. You get like eccentric and you get crazy hair. This is men get too close to power. And the hair gets wild. Unchecked power. Unchecked hair.
我很高兴这个播客从未解散，因为我们从哪里得到J. Cal的惊人洞察力？我很高兴能把它们保持在一起，这让它们更有价值。这是非常真实的。你会变得离奇古怪，发型也会变得狂野。这是男人离权力太近的结果。权力无限，头发也无限制。
We had a good meeting last night. We had an all-in summit meeting. I said, Freeberg, give me a call. Let's catch up on this stuff. He's like, oh, I'm in the bath right now with my candles. And I'm like, yeah, okay, whatever. That's cool. He's like, no, no. And he presses the video button.
昨晚我们开了一次很好的会议。我们进行了一次全员峰会。我说：“弗里伯格，给我打个电话，让我们了解一下这方面的情况”。他说：“哦，我现在正在洗澡，点燃着蜡烛。”我说：“好的，无所谓，这很酷。”他说：“不，不是那样的。”然后他按下了视频按钮。
And then I'm exposed, I kid you not to the most bubbles I've ever seen in a bubble bath. I like bubbles. And he is peeking his head out from over the bubbles. And he's like, look. Which had exactly in the flip. He was the camera around and I got his toes pointing out and I kid you're not there six candles around the bathtub.
然后我被暴露了，我不是在说谎，在泡泡浴中我看到了最多的泡泡。我喜欢泡泡。他从泡泡上面探出了头。他说，看看。他把相机翻了过来，我拍到了他的脚趾，还有六个蜡烛摆在浴缸周围。
I'm like, this is like the Prince of panic attacks. He had to come down for his phone call with me. So now when he has a phone call with me, it's so intense and everything's getting so intense with the summit that he has to do self-care. Yeah, that'd be emotionally ready. He's self-carrying. Your wife wasn't anywhere to be found to see you in the bathtub with the candles. I take a bath every night. Who are you romancing yourself or what? I think he was romancing this spreadsheet with the profit life of all in summit.
我就像是惊恐症的王子一样。他必须跟我通电话时冷静下来。现在，每当他跟我通电话时，不仅紧张程度达到了顶点，而且随着峰会的临近，一切都变得更加紧张，所以他一定要进行自我护理。是的，这样他才能情绪上做好准备。他在进行自我护理。你的妻子不在，没看到你在浴缸里点蜡烛。我每晚都洗澡。你是在自恋吗，还是在恋爱呢？我想他是在为所有参与峰会的利润报表进行“恋爱”。
I have about 18 minutes of self-care every day. 18 seconds, we're in it. All right, let's get the show started in. Three, two. Three, two. What your winners tried. Rainman David Sack. I'm going to win. And I said we open sources to the fans and they've just got crazy with me. Love you guys. I'm queen of Kenwap. I'm going to win. I'm going to win. Hey, everybody. Welcome to episode 130 maybe of the all in podcast. We're still here cooking with oil with me.
每天我有大约18分钟的自我关爱时间。18秒，我们就开始了。好的，让我们开始吧。三、二。三、二。挑战者Rainman David Sack。我要赢。我说我们要向粉丝公开源代码，他们对我疯狂支持。爱你们。我是Kenwap之王。我一定会胜利的。大家好，欢迎收听第130期的《全力以赴》播客。我还在，一直在坚持。
Of course, the dictator himself, Chimoff, Ali, Haapatia. Prince of panic is hack Sultan of science, the queen of Kenwap, David Friedberg, and the power broker himself, the emperor. He did it in sacks, the emperor of his new republic. Anybody have any interest anything going on? Interesting this week. Any interesting moments for people on the national stage? No? Okay.
当然，独裁者Chimoff、Ali、Haapatia，恐慌王子hack，科学苏丹，Kenwap女王，David Friedberg以及权力经纪人皇帝本人都在场。他以袋子为代价，成为新共和国的皇帝。有人对正在发生的事情感兴趣吗？这周有什么有趣的时刻发生在国家舞台上吗？没有？好吧。
（说明：原文可能存在别字，无法确定具体指代对象，所以翻译可能有不确定的地方）
Now let's get right into the docket. First around the docket. Ron DeSantis, governor on DeSantis. He announced his bid on the internet on something called Twitter Spaces. It looks like almost 10 million viewers have seen it so far across all the different spaces. Donald Trump wasn't too pleased. He said Rob, my big red button is bigger, better, stronger, and it's working truth because when Elon fired up the Twitter Spaces, it went to 650,000 viewers in under five minutes and then blew up everybody's phones.
现在让我们马上进入正题。首先是议事日程。罗恩·德桑蒂斯（DeSantis）是佛罗里达州州长。他在一个叫做Twitter Spaces的应用上宣布参加竞选。迄今为止，据统计，不同平台上已有近1000万人次观看。唐纳德·特朗普并不满意。他说：“罗恩，我的大红按钮更大、更好、更强，而且它是真实可靠的。当埃隆·马斯克（Elon）启动Twitter Spaces 时，不到五分钟就吸引了65万人次观看，然后就让所有人疯狂振动起来。”
My phone was melting. I could have cooked the nag on the back of it, the Twitter app crashed so many times. But then sacks with his meager following of a half million people or something, then restarted the stream. And so 15 minutes of technical snafu's were relieved.
我的手机简直要熔化了。Twitter 应用崩溃了好几次，我都能用它煮后脊肉了。但是 Sacks 的 half million 个追随者（或者其他同等数量的人）重新开始直播，这样就解决了 15 分钟的技术故障。
And then there was a announcement and I'll let you take it from there. Sax. You're going to take you behind the scenes. Take us behind the scenes. Take us behind the scenes. How did it come together, Sax?
然后宣布了一件事情，让你来说说。Sax，你要带我们走进幕后，告诉我们这是怎么完成的？带我们走进幕后，告诉我们这是怎么完成的，好吗？
Oh yeah, even better. Yeah, the way it came together is I think the Dessantis team were interested in potentially doing something different for their announcement. He also did an appearance on Fox News afterwards and I think he did a town hall. But I think they saw an opportunity to break new ground here in terms of presidential announcements by doing it on Twitter Spaces. And so the Dessantis campaign connected with Twitter and Elon and I agreed to kind of co-host the space with him and he does an announcement.
哦，太棒了。我认为DeSantis的团队想尝试一些不同的方式来宣布他们的竞选计划。他之后还上了福克斯新闻和镇上会议。但是，他们看到了在推特空间上通过宣布总统竞选计划开创新局面的机会。所以，DeSantis的竞选团队联系了Twitter和伊隆，邀请我们一起共同主持这个空间，并帮助他宣布竞选计划。
Now you're right, we had about 15 minutes of technical difficulties because the interest was so intense. At the time the room crashed, it had over 700,000 people in it and there were a crash because some of you were trying to get in it. I think there was well over a million people trying to get in it. So you normally don't have this kind of interest. I think this is by far the biggest Twitter space.
现在你是对的，由于兴趣太浓烈，我们遇到了大约15分钟的技术困难。当房间崩溃时，里面有超过70万人，因为一些人试图进入它而导致了崩溃。我想有超过100万人试图进入它。所以你通常不会有这种兴趣。我认为这绝对是最大的Twitter空间。
The engineers there told me that the previous order of magnitude was more like 100,000 out of a million. And then you combine that with the fact that Elon's account has over 100 million followers and that basically led to a new level of scale. And you guys understand that when you get to a new level of scale as a platform, there's always going to be some challenges. So in an event the engineers were there trying to figure out how do we solve this and we realized the simplest thing to do would speed or restart the room on my account instead of Elon's and then Elon joined the coast and we brought Santa's in and it all worked perfectly at that point.
那里的工程师告诉我，之前的数量级更像是百万中的10万。再加上埃隆的账号已经拥有了超过1亿的粉丝，这基本上就引发了一个新的级别的规模。而你们知道，当你成为一个平台的新级别时，总会面临一些挑战。所以在这次活动中，工程师们正在努力解决问题，我们意识到最简单的办法是在我的账户上加快或重新启动房间，而不是在埃隆的账户上，然后埃隆加入了演讲，我们让圣诞老人加入进来，这个时候一切都运作得很完美。
The audio was pressed. We had over 300,000 people in the room. There was also another room that had been set up by Mario Nual who's like a big Twitter space host and he had hundreds of thousands of people in there and then he had live commentary from people he invited. And so this ability to fork Twitter spaces into many different rooms and each room gets to decide who they want to be their host and their speakers allows you to do live commentary and in a way that you can never have done before. So it was really innovative, I think.
音频被压缩了。我们有超过30万人在房间里。还有另一个房间，由像大型Twitter空间主持人Mario Nual设置，他那里有成千上万的人，并且他邀请了人们进行实时评论。这种将Twitter空间分叉成许多不同房间的能力，每个房间都可以决定谁是他们的主持人和发言者，使您可以进行实时评论，这是以前从未做过的方式。所以我认为这真的很创新。
Super innovative and for people who don't know Twitter spaces was really a rush job at Twitter. They did that in reaction to Clubhouse. It's still basically a beta product that predates Elon being there and it doesn't have yet the infrastructure or scale of the code base. I don't think like YouTube and Twitch do which you know have been working on this problem for I don't know 15 years. Maybe the live product. Yeah go ahead.
超级创新，适合那些不知道Twitter空间的人，因为Twitter空间是Twitter紧急反应俱乐部而推出的。它仍然基本上是一个Beta产品，早期甚至比埃隆加入之前，它还没有基础设施或规模的代码基础。我认为它不像YouTube和Twitch那样，因为这些平台一直在解决这个问题，已经有大约15年的历史了。也许是直播产品。是的，继续。
The first is I thought to Santis did a really good job just rolling with the punches. Okay. Because I think whether he wins, you're not going to look back on this moment as the defining moment of the campaign, nor whether he loses will you say that this was where it was at all the beginning of the end. Instead what this was was a really seminal moment, I think in further divorcing ourselves away from the mainstream media.
首先，我认为桑蒂斯做得非常好，能适应不断变化的情况。因为我认为，无论他赢不赢，你都不会把这一时刻视为竞选的决定性时刻，也不会说如果他输了，这是起点或终点。相反，我认为这是一个非常重要的时刻，进一步让我们与主流媒体疏离。
And you know that it was that important because Biden tried to troll the whole thing. You can show this link. This link works. And I actually think this was a really terrible idea by the Biden team because never specifically acknowledges how important the moment was. And the fact that even the president of the United States was grinding the link and couldn't get in because there was so much interest is really important. And I think what it speaks to is the fact that we are now showing credibly that you don't need to listen to four channels to shape your consciousness. And you can just go straight to the source.
你知道这个时刻有多重要，因为拜登试图愚弄整个事件。你可以展示这个链接。这个链接可用。我认为这是拜登团队的一个非常糟糕的想法，因为他们从来没有明确承认这个时刻有多重要。而究竟连美国总统都尝试着点击链接但由于兴趣太浓密而无法进入，这一点非常重要。我认为它表明我们现在越来越可信地展示了你不需要听四个频道来塑造你的意识，而可以直接去资源来源。
And what SAC said is right. If you now have a moderated forum that then gets put out to 50 or 60 different Twitter spaces all at the same time framing and reframing, it gives people a chance to come to their own conclusion in a totally unique way. So I think it was really, really an important moment for citizen journalism and podcasting and audio formats and all of the things that I think we've been a small part of. But I think that it's really must have tilted the mainstream media and it tilted the establishment and you can see that in Biden's tweet.
SAC所说的是对的。如果你现在拥有一个经过审核的论坛，然后同时发布到50或60个不同的Twitter空间里，不断调整和重新定位，这将让人们有机会以完全独特的方式得出自己的结论。因此，我认为这对于公民新闻、播客和音频格式以及我们一直以来扮演的小角色来说，都是一个非常重要的时刻。但我认为这一定会倾斜主流媒体和政府机构，你可以从拜登的推特中看出这一点。
Yeah. Yeah. So that was the first thing.
好的。好的。那就是第一件事情了。
（意思是表示同意或接受之前所说的内容）
Second thing, I think DeSantis did a really decent job in rolling with the whole thing and being super cool and just being committed to the process. And I think that says a lot about him as well, which was again, it's a question Mark and I've said this before, the big money guys got close and then took a step back. So this could be a very good moment for them to reevaluate because I thought he did a very good job.
第二件事，我认为DeSantis在应对整件事情上做得非常好，非常冷静、并专注于整个过程。我认为这也说明了他的很多优点，而且之前我已经提过这个问题，那些大款们先前接触过他，但又退却了。所以，这可能是他们重新评估的很好时机，因为我认为他做得非常出色。
So I agree. So I was there. I was live. I was seeing what was happening behind the scenes. When DeSantis came on after we had 15 minutes of technical difficulties, there wasn't a hint of anger. There wasn't a trace of irritation. There wasn't any freaking out that we were potentially ruining his presidential announcement. The guy was completely calm. And more than that, he was in good spirits. I mean, if you listen to the recording, he's happy. His tone was great.
我同意。我当时在现场，亲眼目睹了幕后发生的事情。当德桑蒂斯在经历了15分钟的技术故障后上场，他没有显示出任何愤怒或烦躁，更没有因为我们可能破坏他的总统宣布而大惊小怪。那家伙全身心地冷静，甚至心情还不错。如果你听录音的话，会发现他开心得很，声音也很舒畅。
His tone was really good. I mean, and then of course it was very substantive. He spoke in a very articulate way about all the issues. When Congressman Thomas Massey came on to make a comment or question, he was telling a kind of amusing anecdote about when they were in Congress together. And Massey was one of the only members of Congress who had a Tesla, but he comes from Kentucky. So I think his license plates had Kentucky coal on it. KY coal. So anyway, the guy was in good spirits.
他的语气非常好。我是说，他讲话非常有实质意义，并且非常清晰地谈论了所有问题。当国会议员托马斯·马西发表评论或提问时，他讲述了一个有趣的轶事，讲到他们在国会一起工作的经历。马西是国会中唯一拥有特斯拉的成员之一，但他来自肯塔基州。因此，我认为他的车牌上写着肯塔基煤炭，KY coal。总之，他的情绪很好。
So I think it does say a lot about what he would be like as a president, cool under fire, doesn't get thrown off his game. Again, not an angry guy, which I think will be a real contrast with, let's say some of the other people in the race. Trump was sort of angrily truthing during the whole thing. So I think it was a pretty strong contrast. Trupping the act of posting to truth social. Exactly.
我认为这就说明了他作为总统的风格，他在危急时刻能保持冷静，不会被情绪影响。他也并不是一个愤怒的人，这与其他竞选者形成了鲜明的对比。在整个过程中，特朗普表现得像是在愤怒地揭露真相。因此我认为这是一个相当强烈的对比。 "Trupping"就是发布内容到"truth social"这个平台上的行为。
So the contrast between the personalities could not have been stronger. Now, to the other point, the traumatic about the traditional media, you're right about what they're saying. If you look at the headlines this morning from traditional media outlets that really started within minutes of the technical difficulties, the New York Times called the announcement of Fiasco. NBC News called it a meltdown. Politico called it horrendous. And why? I mean, if you. You don't call that? Winning.
因此，这两位人的个性对比无法更加强烈。现在，说到传统媒体所谓的创伤，你说得对。如果你看看传统媒体机构今天早上的标题，这些标题几乎都始于技术困难的几分钟内，其中《纽约时报》称其为“惨败”的宣告，NBC新闻则称其为“崩溃”，《政治》杂志则称其为“可怕的”。这是为什么呢？我是说，你难道不叫这个“胜利”吗？
I mean, if they are losing their cool, that's clearly they feel threatened by the fact that a major presidential candidate chose to go direct. Even the Wall Street Journal headline is DeSantis looks to rebound after botched Twitter announcement. But again, what they feel to acknowledges, and I'm not a DeSantis supporter per se, I'm open-minded to him, but I haven't decided one way or the other. But this is a guy that managed to get millions of people in a nanosecond to be activated to hear what he had to say. That is different than basically giving talking points and having surrogates, blather through Fox or CNBC or CNN to hundreds of thousands of people. This is a really important moment, I think, what happened.
我的意思是，如果他们失去了冷静，显然是因为他们感到受到了威胁，一个主要的总统候选人选择直接传递信息。即使华尔街日报的标题是DeSantis在搞砸的Twitter公告后试图复苏。但是他们没有承认的是，我本人并不是DeSantis的支持者，我对他持开放态度，但我还没有决定是否支持他。但是这个人成功地让数百万人在瞬间激活，听取他的讲话。这不同于基本上是让代理人通过Fox或CNBC或CNN向数十万人传递讲话要点。我认为这是一个非常重要的时刻。
Okay. We've got all the positive. So, if this was a political rally, a traditional political rally that had started 20 minutes late, would anybody have said that was a disaster? That happens all the time. No, it was the crashing that made people be like, oh, my phone crashed, you know. I was using the app. I got crashed out of the app, but I had my phone did not crash. No, yeah, that's what I'm saying. The app crashed a couple of times because. The app crashed. Your phone did not crash. Yeah.
好的。我们可以看到一切都是积极的。所以，如果这是一个传统的政治集会，并且20分钟晚开场，有人会认为那是一场灾难吗？这种事情经常发生。不，正是应用程序崩溃使人们觉得糟糕，你知道，我的手机崩溃了。我正在使用应用程序，但我并没有崩溃。不，是的，我说的是应用程序崩溃了几次。应用程序崩溃了，但是你的手机没有崩溃。
But any event. Look, this was at the end of the day, this was an event that started 20 minutes late. Once we started on my Twitter account, in my Twitter space, it worked perfectly. There was no problem. And that's the recording that you can go on Twitter now and listen to. We had about 300,000 people contemporaneously in my Twitter space. I think Mario had a couple hundred thousand. But if you look at the numbers today, there's already 10 million views for this thing.
不管怎样，这件事情发生在一天的结束时，因为它晚了20分钟才开始。一旦我们在我的 Twitter 帐户上开始，它就完美运行了，没有任何问题。这就是你现在可以在 Twitter 上听到的录音。当时约有30万人同时在我的 Twitter 上，而马里奥可能有几十万人。但是，如果你看看今天的数据，这个活动已经有了1千万的观看次数。
By the way, that's exactly what I predicted. Three to 10 million on the replay. And that's what you have to look at is replay because the world has moved to asynchronous. This was three o'clock in the afternoon in Silicon Valley and six o'clock. And so when was that in the afternoon? In the afternoon.
顺便说一句，这正是我预测的。重播量将达到三到十万。你需要关注的是重播，因为世界已经转向了异步。这是在硅谷下午三点和晚上六点。那是在下午什么时间呢？在下午。
简单来说，那个人在说他准确地预测了重播量会达到三到十万，并且现在的世界更加关注重播。他同时提到，这句话是在硅谷下午三点和晚上六点说的。
So you have a hysterical overreaction by the traditional media. Why am I? Simply don't like that Elon is just remediating them by letting the politicians go direct. And then he's restored the platform, being a free speech platform. So they jumped on this the first second they could to try and portray as a disaster. But there was an article in Politico at this morning and they were asking voters in Iowa what they think about it. And they're like, what? You know, it's not, it's an elite thing. It's not. Yes, not even on the radar.
所以你看到传统媒体出现了反应过激的情况。我为什么这么说呢？只是因为我不喜欢埃隆直接让政治家进入这个平台，从而与传统媒体产生对抗。而且他将平台恢复，成为了一个言论自由的平台。所以，他们在第一时间就试图将这个情况描绘成一场灾难。但是今天早上 Politico 上有一篇文章，问了艾奥瓦州的选民对此有何看法。他们说什么？你知道的，这不是什么精英的事情。事实上，这甚至还没引起我们的注意。
Freeberg, we heard all the positive here. Any constructive feedback on it or thoughts on it generally.
Freeberg，我们听到了所有积极的信息。您对此有任何建设性的反馈或一般性的想法吗？
No, look, I mean, I would love to see all the political candidates engage in long form discussion like this so that an audience can really get a sense of who they are and what they think in a direct way and uninterrupted way. And in a deeper way, sort of like the conversation we all had with RFK last week and sacked it with DeSantis yesterday.
不，听着，我的意思是，我希望看到所有政治候选人像这样进行长时间的讨论，这样观众才能真正直接地了解他们是谁以及他们的思想。并且以一种更深入的方式，就像我们上周与RFK以及昨天与DeSantis进行的对话一样。
And I would love for the voters to engage in that content to better understand the candidates rather than tee off of short talking points and short ads.
我希望选民可以参与这些内容，更好地了解候选人，而不是仅凭短暂的口号和广告来选择。
I think one of the saddest commentaries on modern democracy is that you can spend a dollar to buy a vote that all of these campaigns functionally try and raise capital to go and do advertising and that the advertising creates these little 30 second sound bites that actually change people's opinions. And it's a really sad, it will it, they otherwise they wouldn't spend the money.
我认为现代民主制度最令人悲哀的评论是，你可以花一美元买一票。所有这些竞选活动都在努力筹集资金，然后用于广告，这些广告创建了这些30秒的声音片段，实际上改变了人们的观点。这是非常悲哀的，因为他们无法通过其他方式来做到这一点，否则他们就不会花钱。
And I think it's a really sad state of affairs that we spend money to change people's opinions by shortening everything to a sound bite. Instead of doing what maybe would have happened a long time ago, you know, we often talk about the town square. If you lived in a village with 60 people and someone was going to run for the mayor of that village, you'd all go to the town square. You'd hear that person have a debate, have a discussion, you talk with them and that dialogue would inform your decision about who you're going to vote for.
我认为，我们花钱用口号来改变人们的观念是一种令人悲哀的现状。这与很久以前我们通常所说的“镇中心广场”的做法大不相同。如果你住在一个只有60个人的村庄里，有人要竞选村长，你们所有人都会去镇中心广场。你们会听到这个人的辩论，进行讨论，与他们交谈，而这种对话将有助于你作出投票决定。
But you know, with 300 million people in this country and short attention spans and jumping around from one thing to another, there aren't a lot of great forums for any of us to really engage with candidates, particularly on the national level and make a better informed decision hearing from that person directly. Instead, everything is about driving narrative and chopping things up and getting the sound bite and driving the emotional reaction.
你知道，这个国家有三亿人口，注意力很短，总是跳来跳去，没有太多好的论坛可以让我们真正与候选人交流，特别是在国家层面上，可以直接听取他们的意见，并做出更明智的决策。相反，一切都是关于推动叙事，割裂事情并获取说辞和推动情感反应的。
And I think one of the greatest things that's happening right now that, you know, could be a great benefit for this modern democracy is the sort of stuff that we've been doing on our podcast and RFK coming on board. Like last week and what's accented with Twitter and I really hope that more politicians do that and that more people engage and consume that sort of content to make their decision and ignore the idiotic sound bites and the stupid 30 second ads and the nonsense that, you know, third party's youth to try and drive narrative.
我认为目前正在发生的一件最伟大的事情，可能对现代民主有着巨大的好处，就是我们在我们的播客节目和RFK加入之后所做的工作。就像上个星期以及在Twitter上的强调一样，我真的希望更多的政治人物这样做，更多的人参与和消费这种内容，以做出自己的决策，并忽略愚蠢的口号和愚蠢的30秒广告，以及那些第三方机构试图推动叙事的废话。
So yeah, look, I mean, I think that's generally the positive trend that I took away from it.
所以，我认为这是我从中得出的普遍积极趋势。
Jake, how do you think? I have some notes for Shaxx. I'm always, you know, careful not to be too critical, you know, in the moment because I don't, people will weaponize them and say, oh, Jason said this because, you know, he's Elon and he's team Elon or he's friends with Shaxx. But I think everything's said so far. This tweaked the media a great start.
Jake，你认为如何？我有一些自己对Shaxx的笔记。我总是会注意，不要在当时过于批评，因为我不想人们利用它们，然后说：“噢，Jason说这是因为他是Elon和他是Elon团队的朋友。”但我认为目前为止说的一切都是一个很好的开始，这让媒体有了调整。
The thing that I think was there were probably one or two misses here that I think you can build on Shaxx and you were very involved in the campaign with DeSantis. I think it wasn't the free for all that Elon had said it would have been, right? So he pitched it as like, hey, this is going to be uncensored and everybody's going to get to ask hard questions and that didn't happen. And you know, I think that is in stark contrast to what Trump did because I was doing the media analysis of this.
我认为存在的问题是，可能有一两个遗漏的问题可以由Shaxx和您一起解决。您在DeSantis的竞选活动中非常积极。我认为这不是像埃隆所说的那样自由自在的局面，对吗？他宣传说，嘿，这将是没有审查的，每个人都可以提出难题，但并没有发生。我认为这和特朗普所做的截然不同，因为我正在进行媒体分析。
And so I think the follow up needs to be where he actually takes questions, not from fans, not from people who are already voting for him, but really, you know, a little bit more of the contancorous people, the people who maybe are voting for Trump, the people who are maybe in the biting camp. And that's what was the masterstroke of Trump's CNN town hall. He went into the, you know, the lions then or what most people perceive was going to be the lions then and he took on all comers. He fought hard.
因此，我认为后续需要他真正回答一些问题，不是来自粉丝，也不是来自已经为他投票的人，而是一些有点更具争议性的人，可能是投票给特朗普的人，可能是属于对抗派别的人。这就是特朗普CNN市民大会的杰出之处。他走进了，你知道的，大多数人认为会是狮子们的场合，他应对所有挑战者。他非常努力地战斗着。
And that one was, I think, a bigger win. I don't think DeSantis. Because that was not a presidential announcement. So just to be clear, yes, this was a launch event declaring that he's running. So in that context, yes. Yeah.
我认为那个更加重要的胜利是那个。我不认为德桑蒂斯赢了。因为那不是总统宣布。所以，为了明确，是的，这是一个宣布他参加竞选的启动活动。在这种情况下，是的。
So you want to compare it to what these things usually are, which is a guy standing at a podium in front of his supporters. Where to that, this was much more interesting dynamic and engaging. I agree with you that at some point he's going to step into the lion's den, do a town hall on a place like CNN. And I think he probably will. In fact, I think he did, yeah, I think he did a town hall. More here. I think he actually did a town hall in Florida, later that night.
你想将它与通常的情形进行比较，通常情形是一个人站在演讲台前面他的支持者面前。相较于这个情形，这更有趣，更具互动性。我同意你的观点，他在某一时刻将进入狮子的巢穴，参加CNN等地方的市政厅。我认为他可能会这样做，事实上，我认为他在那天晚上在佛罗里达州举行了市政厅。更多的内容可以在这里找到。
So yeah, I agree with you. It just wasn't that kind of event. Now, to the point about involving more people, you know, one of the things I learned hosting this thing is there are literally thousands of people raising their hands.
所以，我同意你的想法。这次活动本来就不是那种聚集人群的场合。至于涉及更多的人的问题，我主持这个活动的其中一个经验就是有成千上万的人举手要加入。
Yes, you can't store it. I was scrolling through this in real time in the app. I wanted to call them more people, but it was just there was no way to do it. This is something at scale. They need to add to the interface, which is maybe pre-populating a list, sorting it by the number of followers, whatever. And this is my second point about this.
是的，你不能存储它。我在应用程序中实时滚动浏览。我想叫更多的人，但就是没有办法。这是一个规模的问题。他们需要在界面上添加一些功能，比如预先填充列表，按照关注者数量排序等等。这是我对这个问题的第二点看法。
So I agree with you. As an announcement, this was light speed ahead as like a full court, you know, like sharp elbow thing. It didn't hit that note.
我同意你的看法。但这个公告对我来说有点仓促，就像在篮球比赛中富有攻击性的动作。它没有达到预期的效果。
But it can. And that's what I think the follow up, you know, having if DeSantis wants to come here and have like a two hour discussion, we kind of get into it a little more. That would be, I think, really good for him because I think he's got the potential to win over moderates. And I don't think this one over moderates didn't win over anybody who was in, you know, the left or in the moderate left.
但事实是可以这样做的。我想，如果DeSantis 想来这里举行一个两个小时的讨论会，我们可以更深入地探讨问题。我认为这对他来说会很有益，因为他有潜力赢得温和派的支持。我认为，这一次他没有赢得任何左派或温和派的支持者。
And that was one of the things I noticed is my second point about it is what a great group of listeners. If you look at who showed up to listen, Bill Ackman, Michael Dell, because you know, you are sort by your followers. So, but I think it sorts it by the number of followers that have it sort of by your followers who then have the most followers. So you're going to see it's a bit of a echo chamber that way.
我注意到的其中一件事情是，这是一个非常善于聆听的群体。如果你看看来到现场听演讲的人，比尔·阿克曼，迈克尔·戴尔，因为你知道，你是依据你的追随者而分类的。但我想分类应该是按照追随者数量排序的，然后再按照那些具有最多追随者的追随者进行排序。所以你会看到这是一个有些回声的空气。
Okay. Okay. Sure. But they were still very prominent people in the world prominent people follow you. Okay. But they weren't coming to follow me. They were coming to listen to this. My point is still the same. Michael Dell, Bill Ackman, we're coming. But that's why you saw them because they're your followers. We all understand that. They still showed up for this in the middle of the day. I think that is really interesting and that. Yeah. Yeah. That's all my point. It's really interesting. Now, powerful people showed up for it. Full stop.
好的。好的。当然。但他们仍然是非常杰出的人物，世界上杰出的人物会追随你。好的。但他们不是来追随我的，他们是来听这个的。我的观点仍然是一样的。迈克尔·戴尔、比尔·阿克曼都来了。但这是因为他们是你的追随者，我们都明白这一点。他们仍然在白天来参加这个真的很有趣。对，对，这就是我的观点。这真的很有趣，现在有强大的人来参加了。完结。
I have a question for you. Sorry, Jason, whatever you do. Oh, yeah. And then I just had a couple of other ones. Elon was a bit underutilized in this format. And that's a challenge when you have Elon in the room because people want to ask Elon questions.
我有一个问题要问你。很抱歉，Jason，无论你做什么。哦，是的。然后我还有几个问题。在这种格式下，埃隆有些被低估了。当你在房间里有埃隆时，这是一个挑战，因为人们想问埃隆问题。
So, this is something I think he's going to have to, you know, contend with people who don't want it to hear Elon ask questions, then the people who are asking the questions wanted to ask Elon questions. So, you do get like a little bit of how to utilize Elon in this format.
所以，我认为他将不得不应对那些不想听到埃隆提问的人以及想要向埃隆提问的人。因此，在这种形式下如何利用埃隆的方式，你可以得到一点点启示。
I heard a lot of fact channel from important people. Like, I wanted to Elon ask a question or maybe the two of them get into it. So, for a follow-up one, getting some people, you know, who maybe don't traditionally get to ask questions because let's face it, in traditional media, the only people get to ask questions are these anchors on news channels?
我听到很多来自重要人物的实事频道。比如说，我想问问埃隆一个问题，或者让他们俩有更深入的交流。因此，作为跟进，我们需要一些人，也许是那些传统上没有机会提问的人，因为让我们面对现实，在传统媒体中，只有新闻频道的主持人才能提问。
I want to hear Michael Dow or Bill Acman ask a question. That's the opportunity in Twitter spaces. Maybe letting Elon ask a tough question, then a follow-up or, you know, like we did here with RFK. I would have been totally open to that. I just couldn't manage it. There was just so many people in the room.
我想听迈克尔·道或比尔·阿克曼提出一个问题。这是在 Twitter 空间提供的机会。也许让埃隆问一个难题，然后进行后续操作，或者，你知道的，就像我们在这里与 RFK 所做的那样。我完全可以接受这种做法。只是我无法管理，因为房间里的人太多了。
I didn't see Acman actually. I mean, I totally believe he was there, but I didn't see it. The only criticism people had of usac says, you're a major donor and you stack the deck was the most cynical version of it with like five people who were just super-affusive. But this is his launch party.
我实际上没有看到Acman。我的意思是，我完全相信他在那里，但是我没有看到他。人们对我们的批评仅仅是说：“你是一位主要捐赠者，你会操纵局面。”这是最愤世嫉俗的版本，只有五个人是超级恭维。但这是他的发布会。
So, I think in that context, you can accept it. I would have called on Bill Acman if I known he wanted to speak, but I can't see whether he raised his hand or not. I didn't see him in the room. So, what would I want to say to him? Call on Bill Acman and he's like, oh, guys, I don't want to talk. I don't want to put him in that spot. Can we get him on this pod so we can grill him about abortion and fiscal policy? Who, Bill Acman? I don't know. I don't speak for the campaign, but I can put in the request for him. You put it up to say, just.
在这种情况下，我认为你可以接受它。如果我知道比尔·阿克曼想发言，我会点名他的，但我看不到他是否举手了。我没看见他在房间里。那么，我会想对他说什么？点名比尔·阿克曼，他会说：“哦，伙计们，我不想说话。” 我不想让他陷入这种境地。我们可以请他参加这个播客，让我们追问他有关堕胎和财政政策的问题吗？谁，比尔·阿克曼？我不知道。我不能代表竞选活动发言，但我可以为他提出请求。你可以说：“只是这样做。”
Whoa, whoa, whoa. You put 150 dimes in. Get him on hold on. Can you tell us the actual TikTok of how this whole thing came to be?
哇，等一下，你放了150个十分硬币。请把他放在等待音乐上。你能告诉我们这件事情是如何发生的吗？
The campaign within the last week or two had the idea of should we explore doing it on Twitter spaces? And I think they were open to doing it. And. Sax didn't know about it when I put it in our group chats. Sax was like, he is. Yeah, you found out about it. I was being fussy. Shus. Oh, okay. Jo, okay. I thought you didn't. Good.
最近一两周的宣传活动考虑在Twitter空间上进行，他们十分乐意尝试。当我在我们的群组聊天里说起这个想法时，Sax并没有听说过。他有点惊讶地说：“哦，你发现了这件事。”然后我就有些不耐烦了。然后Shus说：“好了，好了。”之后，Jo说：“好的，好的，我以为你不知道呢，太好了。”
No, sometimes Elon will just tweet something without telling anybody. I just go directly. No, I mean, I help. Look, the. The Sanctus people reached out to Elon on Twitter. They also reached out to me about it and we discussed it. They were excited breaking new ground, just doing different. And I think they deserve credit for that.
有时候埃隆会在没有通知任何人的情况下发布推特。我直接与他联系。不，我的意思是，我提供帮助。圣殿人通过Twitter联系了埃隆。他们也与我联系并我们讨论了此事。他们很兴奋地开创了新局面，做出了不同的尝试。我认为他们值得得到认可。
Can I ask a follow-up question? Just on the descent, this thing himself, because you've seen him up close. Do you know why Schwartzman, Griffin, Petr Fry stepped in, took a half step back? And do you know what it's going to take for them to just lean in and just make this effect to complete so that he's really well-finished to be Trump? I don't know what their issues are, but I did see. I don't know this.
我可以问一个后续问题吗？关于下降，在这个事情本身上，因为你亲眼见过他。你知道为什么Schwartzman，Griffin，Petr Fry会走进来，退后半步吗？你知道他们需要做什么才能倾向这种效果，使他真正完成为特朗普吗？我不知道他们的问题是什么，但我确实看到了。我不知道这个。
（翻译者注：句子语法比较奇怪，尝试在不改变句子结构的前提下尽量解释清楚。大概意思是说对于一个特朗普的化妆表演，一些人没有完全发挥角色，原因不明。）
Was this name Petr Fry or whatever? Yeah. I don't know him, but I did see a press article and he was referencing book bannings. So that to me, to show that he was buying into some, you know, crazy left-wing press narratives. I think that was the best part of. And I asked the Sanctus about that. So by the way, for people who started. By the way, that was the one thing that was new news for a lot of people was the book banning. Can you explain the issue and the spin and the clarification on book banning in Florida?
这个人叫彼得·弗赖或者其他什么名字吗？是的。我不认识他，但我看到了一篇新闻报道，他提到了禁书问题。所以我认为，这表明他认同了一些疯狂的左翼新闻叙事。我认为这是最有意思的部分。我向 Sanctus 询问了这个问题。顺便说一下，对于那些不了解情况的人来说，禁书是他们最关心的事情之一。你能解释一下禁书问题、对该问题的解读以及佛罗里达州的禁书问题的澄清吗？
It's very simple. They haven't banned any books in Florida. But the question is, what books are taught in the curriculum and what's in the school library? And some of these books were positively pornographic. I mean, they had so on. The Sanctus had an event where somebody was actually reading what was in these books. And the mere reading of what was in the books actually got labeled on social media by the algorithms. So there was a lot of stuff that's just not appropriate for kids. No one is restricting your ability to buy or read whatever books you want in the state of Florida's ridiculous. There's a legitimate question about what's in the curriculum.
很简单。佛罗里达州没有禁止任何书籍。但问题是，课程中教授哪些书，以及学校图书馆中有哪些书？其中有些书是明显的色情作品。我的意思是，它们实际上是这样的。Sanctus有一个活动，有人真的正在读书中的内容。而书中所述的内容甚至已被社交媒体算法标记为不适宜。因此，有很多内容对孩子来说根本不适合。在佛罗里达洲，没有任何人限制你购买或阅读任何书籍的能力，这太荒谬了。有一个合理的问题是，课程中教授的内容是什么。
By the way, I remember when we had debates on campus about this is back a long time ago, like the late 80s, early 90s when they were throwing dead white males out of the curriculum, you know, Plato, Aristotle, Shakespeare, people like that. The people on the right who were opposing that never made the argument that this was censorship. Everybody understands that when you're dealing with a curriculum, you have to make choices. You can't teach everything. So the question is, what are you going to limit it to?
顺便说一句，我还记得我们在校园里进行辩论的时候，那时是80年代末90年代初，他们将柏拉图、亚里士多德、莎士比亚等已故的白人作家从课程中剔除。反对者从右翼立场出发，但从未提出这是审查的论点。大家都知道，在处理课程时必须进行取舍，不能教授所有内容。因此，问题是，你会将它限制在什么范围内呢？
I think that when people actually dug into some of these books, they realized that they're not appropriate. So in any event, his answer was along those lines that you should go listen to it for yourself. But I think that he did address that issue. I think he's kind of exposed it as a left-wing media narrative. And I think he deconstructed it. And I think that was helpful because I think there are a lot of centrist who all they've heard about DeSantis is that he's banning books or the Disney issue, which we also asked him about. And we covered that, I think. So yeah, we talked about some of these controversies.
我认为当人们实际深入研究这些书籍时，他们意识到这些书籍不太恰当。因此，无论如何，他的答案就是你应该亲自去听听。但我认为他确实解决了这个问题。我认为他将其揭示为左翼媒体的叙事。我认为他解构了它。我认为这是有帮助的，因为我认为有很多中立派只听说过德桑蒂斯（DeSantis）正在禁止书籍或迪士尼问题，我们也问了他这个问题。我们涉及了一些争议话题。
The issue here, just to summarize it is, the left is framing the banning quote unquote, but just the not inclusion of certain books, which are graphic that have sex in them from certain age groups in schools as part of a curriculum. So they're saying these books are banned in Florida. The more accurate way to say this, these books are not being used in curriculum for these age groups. Parents, if they want to buy them, can buy them and then can read them. So this is where this conversation is kind of breaking down. And I think is a complete waste of time.
这里的问题，简单概括一下，左派正在将禁止引号内的内容定义为“禁书”，但实际上只是在部分课程中不包含一些有性描写的书籍，以适当年龄的学生为限。因此，他们声称这些书在佛罗里达州被禁止。更确切地说，这些书没有被用于这些年龄段的课程中。如果家长想买这些书，可以自行购买并阅读。所以，这场谈话正在陷入僵局，我认为这是完全浪费时间。
All parents want control over at what age or what stuff their kids are exposed to. And so there is a thoughtful discussion to be had there. And maybe the discussion is this is something parents should decide. Yeah, of course, but it's not even a conversation. It's a hoax. It's a fake media narrative they're trying to pin on him. And DeSantis has been the subject and victim of these types of fake media narratives, which are deliberate. The media is not trying to have a conversation. They're trying to disqualify the guy. And they did this. This goes all the way back to COVID when he opposed lockdowns and kept schools open. And they called him death Santas.
所有的父母都希望能够控制孩子接触事物的时间和种类。因此，这是一个值得深思的讨论话题。也许，这个讨论的结论是，这是父母应该自主决定的事情。当然，但实际上，并没有这样的讨论。这是一个骗局，是媒体试图诬陷他的虚假叙述。DeSantis一直是这些恶意制造的媒体叙述的受害者与目标。媒体不是在尝试进行讨论，他们是在试图打压这个人，他们一直都在这么做。这已经可以追溯到COVID时期，当他反对封锁并保持学校开放时，他被称为死神桑塔纳斯（"Death Santas"）。
So the media has had it in and for this guy since the beginning, because he refuses to go along with their narratives on things. This is the same reason they a Elon is Elon is defying their narrative control. So you put these two guys together, okay, hold on. Even before the technical difficulties, let's be clear. The media's heads were exploding. That DeSantis and Elon were going to be in the room together. Look at the vanity fair article. The headline was DeSantis announcing with Elon because David Duke wasn't available. Okay. The Atlantic was saying that this whole Twitter space was a hate group. I mean, literally.
自从开始，媒体就对这个人持有敌对态度，因为他拒绝遵循他们关于各种事情的说法。这也是他们针对埃隆·马斯克的原因，因为他挑战了他们的叙事控制权。所以将这两个人放在一起，好吧，等等。即使在技术困难之前，让我们清楚一点。媒体的头脑已经爆炸了，因为DeSantis和Elon将在同一房间里。看一下《名利场》的文章。标题是DeSantis宣布与Elon会面，因为David Duke没有空。好吧，《大西洋月刊》说这整个Twitter空间是一个仇恨团体。我的天。
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So these people were losing their minds before we even got into the technical difficulties. And then they pounced on that. That there was a 20 minute delay. They pounced on that as some sort of fiasco, which it wasn't.
在技术故障发生之前，这些人已经失去了理智。然后他们就抓住了这点。他们认为20分钟的延迟是一场灾难，但实际上并不是。
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Will DeSantis cut spending and cut our taxes? We cut spending. We didn't get into that. Have you ever had a conversation with him about balancing the budget and federal debt? Do you know his position on cutting like long-term capital gains and taxes? I don't know his position on that. I can't speak to him.
德桑提斯会削减支出并减税吗？我们削减了支出，但没有深入探讨这个问题。你有没有和他谈过平衡预算和联邦债务的问题？你知道他对削减长期资本收益和税收的态度吗？我不知道他对此的立场，也无法代表他说话。
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Let me give you the elevator pitch. I mean, the nutshell for DeSantis is he calls it the Florida Blueprint. He's saying, look at what we've done in Florida. Look at what we've achieved at Florida. Let's take Florida nationwide. Florida has had a great economy. Florida has had a balanced budget. Zero taxes. No, because I don't. That's the state tax. If you have zero taxes, you have my book.
让我用简单易懂的方式来介绍DeSantis的计划。他称之为“佛罗里达蓝图”。他认为，我们应该看看佛罗里达所取得的成就，并将其应用于全美的发展。佛罗里达经济发展良好，预算平衡，税收为零。我指的是州税。如果你想要零税，那就看看我的书吧。
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No. Are they real? Okay. The dictator has spoken. If people want to look up this issue, there's a book called Gender Queer. There's a story about it in the New York Times. It's a graphic novel about coming of age for a non-binary person, which is fine. Great. It's very graphic. It's a graphic graphic novel. It has explicit scenes. These kind of books, most parents would say, I would like to wait for my graphic novel on cutting my taxes to zero. Okay. There you go. It's called The DeLotter's Guide to Santerity.
这段话意思是，对于这个问题，没有确凿的答案。但是，有许多关于非二元性人成长的书籍和文章，比如一本名为“Gender Queer”的书，纽约时报上也有一篇相关报道。其中，有一个关于非二元性人成长的图像小说，内容非常生动，但也有些场景比较暴露。大多数家长可能会希望等待一本关于如何降税的图像小说，而不是这种书籍。这本书叫《肃静的DeLotter指南》。
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Come on, guys. Overall, great job. Yeah, get him on the pod here and we'll have a great discussion with him. Yes, that's a great job, Saksipu. Great job. Please invite him to our pod. I think we each have our own issues. We'd love to. Or else we're just going to go with the other Republican candidates. Nikki, Haley, and I'm proud of you. Or also voting for. Yes. I don't know.
大家加油，总的来说，做得很棒。没错，把他也邀请上来，我们会和他进行一场精彩讨论。Saksipu，你做得很好，请邀请他来我们的活动。我觉得每个人都有自己的问题，我们很愿意邀请他来。否则我们可能会投其他共和党候选人，比如Nikki Haley。我为你感到骄傲。他也在投她。是的，我不知道。
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All right. Well, thanks, guys. Yeah, I think. Great job, brother. I think it'd be great to get Nikki Haley. That's a no. No, just say no. No, I'm not going to stand. I'm going to put in the ass to the Santer's for sure. All right.
好的，谢谢大家。嗯，我认为做得很好，兄弟。我认为让尼基·海利加入会很好。但不行，直接拒绝。不，我不会站起来的。我肯定会为桑特斯提供支持。
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Well, that's great. We're going to be here for more folks. So a lot of other news going on. I think a good place for us to go to next. Maybe do we want to do the debt ceiling, defense spending, or Nvidia? Let's go together. In my opinion.
那太好了，我们要为更多的人服务。还有很多其他的新闻。下一步我们可以讨论债务上限、国防支出或英伟达。我的建议是一起讨论。
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US debt ceiling is at 31.4 trillion currently. Treasury Department recently warned the federal government could be unable to pay its bills as soon as June 1st, Fitch put the US credit rating, which is the highest rank of triple A on negative watch. So negative watch means it's trending towards bad and that it's imminent that they might lower it due to this debt limit deadline.
目前，美国的债务上限为31.4万亿美元。财政部最近警告称，联邦政府可能会在6月1日之前无法支付其账单，惠誉公司将美国的信用评级下调至负面预警，而该评级是最高的AAA级别。因此，负面预警意味着趋势向不好，并且由于这个债务上限截止日期即将到来，他们可能会降低评级。
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It seems like we're not making much progress every couple of days. We seem to swing one way or the other, the stock market has kind of shrugged it off. And the last time the US credit was downgraded was in 2011, but we avoided that.
每隔几天似乎我们没有取得太多进展。我们似乎左右摇摆，股市似乎对此不太在意。美国信用评级上次降级是在2011年，但我们避免了这种情况。
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Shemoth, what's going on here? What do you think the eventual outcome in? Is there a chance that these knuckleheads who represent us are going to default and cause chaos? Or do you think this is all kabuki theater and we're going to wind up in the same place, which is they raise it and make some modest concessions?
Shemoth，这里发生了什么？你认为最终的结果会是什么？这些代表我们的笨蛋们会不会违约并造成混乱？还是你认为这全部都是闹剧，最后我们会陷入同样的境地，也就是他们会提高债务上限并做出一些适度的让步？
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August 5th, 2011. The SMP downgraded the United States from triple A to double A plus. You know what happened? Absolutely fucking nothing. Okay.
2011年8月5日，SMP将美国的信用评级从三A降至双A+。你知道发生了什么吗？完全没有什么大不了的事情。好的。
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So I do think that this is another opportunity for the little red riding hoods to get their panties in a bunch. But these downgrades don't need much of it. You're referring to there. You talking about free birds? Yeah, what are you talking about? Talking about all these guys. Wait a second, is that Biden? Talk about the media.
我认为这是小红帽们又一次为小事而烦恼的机会。但是这些降级并不需要太多的烦扰。你是在指什么？你在谈论自由鸟吗？是的，你在说什么？我在说所有这些人。等一下，那是拜登吗？谈论媒体。
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I think that these third party credit rating agencies are not particularly that accurate and sophisticated. They don't know anything that you don't know. They're not getting access to. Moody's gave SVB and A rating the week before it went into receivership. This is my exact point. Well done. This is my exact point. None of these companies know what they're doing. These companies are in the business of putting a letter on a document and then selling access to that document.
我认为这些第三方信用评级机构并不十分准确和复杂。他们并不知道你所不知道的信息。例如，穆迪在旧金山谷仓银行破产前一周，仍将其评为A级。这正是我的观点。这些公司不知所措。这些公司的业务就是给文件上一个字母等级，并出售浏览该文件的权限。
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So whether it's S&P, Fitch or Moody's, I would tell you to ignore it and come to your own conclusion. I think that this budget ceiling thing is happening now every couple of years. And it seems like the real thing we should be talking about is whether Biden's going to use the 14th amendment and just ram a budget through.
无论是S&P、Fitch还是Moody's，我都建议你忽略它们，自行得出结论。我认为，预算天花板事情每几年就会发生一次，似乎我们真正应该讨论的是拜登是否会利用第14修正案并强行通过预算。
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Explain that. Explain that. So under the 14th amendment, the president of the United States has in their discretion the ability to make sure that the United States can pay their debts. And that wasn't necessarily thought of as a way to work around the debt ceiling impasse. But because Congress refuses to pass any structural laws that allow the budget to ebb and flow with tax receipts, we get caught in the situation. Again, roughly every handful of years.
解释一下，解释一下。因此，在第14修正案下，美国总统有自主权确保美国能够偿付债务。这并不是旨在规避债务上限僵局的方式，但因为国会拒绝通过任何结构法律，使预算随着税收收入波动，我们一再陷入这种情况，大约每隔几年就会发生一次。
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So what Biden could do is he could say the 14th amendment gives me the right.
那么，拜登可以宣称自己拥有第14修正案授予的权利。这意味着他可以行使总统的权力，采取措施来保护宪法所赋予的权利和自由。
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I'm going to pass a budget via executive order.
我会通过行政命令来通过一项预算。
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From a game theory perspective, what that does is it forces Republicans to sue Biden, take him to the Supreme Court and say this is unconstitutional.
从博弈理论的角度来看，这样做会迫使共和党人起诉拜登，将他带到最高法院，并声称这是违宪的。
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The problem with that is that that probably really does tank the economy in the way that it creates enough uncertainty where capital markets freeze up and liquidity just absolutely goes away. And again, liquidity has been shrinking for the last 18 months anyways. So it get even worse.
问题在于这样做可能会真正破坏经济，因为它会造成足够的不确定性，导致资本市场冻结和流动性完全消失。再次强调，流动性在过去18个月中一直在缩水。所以情况可能会变得更糟。
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So I think the bringsmanship right now between McCarthy and Biden is basically that veiled threat.
因此，我认为麦卡锡和拜登现在之间的竞争就在于暗示的威胁。
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If Biden effectively isn't going to get something done, I think he's going to test the 14th amendment now.
如果拜登无法有效地推动某项事情完成，我认为现在他将会考验第14修正案。
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If the 14th amendment turns out to be a reasonable way in order to pass a budget, the good news is not just for Biden, but for any future president, including Republican presidents, will not have to be held hostage by Congress.
第八段:
如果第14修正案被证明是通过预算的合理方式，这个好消息不仅仅适用于拜登，而且适用于任何未来的总统，包括共和党总统，他们都不必再受到国会的拘束。
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They will in the 11th hour be able to pass a budget that works.
在最后关头，他们将能够通过一个有效的预算。
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The implications of that though is that now you will not get consensus.
这意味着现在你将无法获得一致意见。
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And whatever's happening in that moment, you'll see more of.
无论此时此刻发生了什么，你都会看到更多。
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So if you have a spending president, they'll just continue to spend.
因此，如果你有一个爱花钱的总统，他们只会继续花钱。
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And if you have an austerity president, they'll continue to cut.
如果你的总统实行财政紧缩政策，他们会继续削减开支。
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And that'll have implications on either side.
这将对双方都有影响。
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Just actually think this is over issues of 14th amendment or do you think it's a valid use of it?
你认为这仅仅是因为第14条修正案的问题吗？还是你认为这是它合理使用的体现？
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No, it's not going to fly.
不，这不可能实现。
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I mean, it's true that the 14th amendment has some language about the full faith and credit of the US shall not be compromised.
我的意思是，第14条修正案确实有一些关于美国完全信任和信贷不得受损害的语言。
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However, it's never been tested or tried.
然而，这从未经过测试或尝试过。
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So no one exactly knows what it means.
因此，没有人确切知道它的意思。
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Progressives are now saying that the language means that Biden could just keep spending without the dead limit being raised.
进步派现在说，这种语言意味着拜登可以继续支出而不需要提高债务上限。
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But by himself through cold water on this, he said that he didn't think he had that authority.
但他自己否决了这件事，称他认为自己没有那个权力。这句话的意思是他不认为自己有权力去做这件事情。
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And even Lawrence O'Donnell, the other night, who's a big progressive on the media, he was saying that if the Dems were going to take this attack, they need to do it months ago before they started negotiating on a debt limit increase.
在最近一晚上，即使是权威进步传媒人士劳伦斯·奥唐奈尔也表示，如果民主党想发起攻击，他们就应该在几个月前就开始行动，而不是在开始谈判增加债务上限之后再这么做。
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So it's too late now.
所以现在太晚了。
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In other words, if you're going to take that position, why would you have negotiated that you, the president are effectively conceding, you don't have that authority when you start negotiating.
换句话说，如果你要采取这个立场，你为什么会谈判同意，作为总统你放弃了那种权力，当你开始谈判时，你就没有这种权力。
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I think it's too late to invoke the 14th amendment.
我认为现在援引第14修正案太晚了。
该句的意思是，目前已经错过了援引第14修正案的时机，无法再用这种方式来解决问题。
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They're going to have to raise the debt ceiling.
他们将不得不提高债务上限。这意味着政府需要更多的借贷来支付开支。这是一个常见的政治争议，因为提高债务上限常常引发政治争论和分歧。
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That being said, I think they're going to be able to. Reuters had to report this morning that there are only 72 billion apart now in their positions, which is a relatively small amount.
话虽如此，我认为他们将会达成协议。路透社今天早上报导称，他们的立场现在只相差7,200万美元，这是一个相对较小的数额。
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So my guess is they're going to work this out.
所以我猜他们会解决这个问题。
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Now what should the fate of the debt limit be moving forward?
现在，债务限制的命运应该如何前进呢？
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I mean, the thing that's so stupid about our budget process is we spend the money and then argue about whether we're going to pay the credit card bill.
我是说，我们的预算进程非常愚蠢，因为我们花完了钱之后才开始争论是否要支付信用卡账单。
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The way that the debt limit should work is you raise the debt before you spend it.
债务限制应该如何运作的方式是在你花钱之前先增加债务。
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Congress should have to vote first on whether they want a deficit or debt spend.
国会应该首先投票决定他们是否要进行财政赤字或债务支出。
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Then you decide how much you're going to spend.
然后你决定要花多少钱。
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So this thing, this vote needs to be moved up before they spend it.
所以这件事情，这个投票需要在他们花掉之前提前进行。
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And I think if you did that, it'd be a lot harder for the politicians to spend money, because if you had an up or down vote very early on saying, should we even be in deficit, I think a lot of people would say, no, we're not in a war.
我认为，如果这样做，政治家们就会更难花钱了，因为如果在早期就进行一次支出投票，投票结果是赤字还是盈余，我认为很多人会说不需要赤字，因为我们没有打仗。
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So why would you deficit spend?
那么为什么要进行赤字支出呢？
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If we break any thoughts on the debt ceiling, if not, we'll go on to the government accountability vis-a-vis the defense spending.
如果我们没有解决关于债务上限的想法，我们将继续探讨政府在国防支出方面的责任。
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I mean, look, we're running a $2 trillion a year deficit and it's forecast to continue to be at that level for several years.
我是说，看，我们每年都有2万亿美元的赤字，并且预计将在未来几年保持在这个水平。
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And it's going to take pretty radical changes in how we tax and spend to make up that gap.
为了填补这个差距，我们需要进行相当彻底的税收和支出改革。
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So this is a problem that is going to continue and repeat.
因此，这是一个将继续发生和重复的问题。
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And it does beg the question, would you want to buy bonds from an entity that's generating 4 trillion in revenue and spending 6 trillion and has a plan to do that for the foreseeable future and it's only seeing its economy or its underlying revenue-based grow by 2% a year?
这确实让人想问一个问题，你会想要购买来自一家营收4万亿美元、支出6万亿美元、并且未来可预见的计划仅会以每年2%的增长率增加经济或基于收入的收入的实体的债券吗？
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It seems like that would be a very hard start-up to fund.
看起来这将是一个非常难以获得资金的创业公司。
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And there would be a very difficult growth investment to make, particularly in an environment like this.
在这样的环境下，特别是在经济发展困难的情况下，进行一项非常困难的成长投资。
Paragraph 1:
So I'm just pointing out that this is becoming a more kind of systemically risky situation for the US that we spend the way we do and we have to keep coming back to having these debates about its appropriate or not.
那么，我只是想指出，美国的支出方式正在变得更加系统性地造成风险，我们不得不一遍又一遍地就这个问题进行辩论，讨论是否合适。
Paragraph 2:
And now they've narrowed down the way that the Republicans seem to be kind of going about getting this done. What's still done is they're only focusing on roughly 15% of the overall federal budget and they're saying we'll kind of make some tweaks in that little range there and save some pennies, save some nickels.
现在，他们已经缩小了共和党似乎想要完成这项工作的方式。他们仅仅关注于总联邦预算的大约15％，并且他们说我们会在那个范围内做出一些微调，以节省一些钱。
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But we've got a much more fundamental problem to deal with, which is how do we stop running these deficits and running the data?
但我们需要解决一个更根本的问题，那就是我们如何停止这些赤字和数据的运行？
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But I mean, I'm going to sound like a friggin' No, I think you're right. The inflation is here and the crowding out of private investment and private borrowing is now occurring because the government borrowing is so big.
我意思是，我要像个混蛋一样听起来，但我认为你是对的。通货膨胀已经到来了，政府借款太大，现在已经发生了私人投资和私人借贷受挤出的情况。
Paragraph 5:
I mean, our treasury, our government debt of what, three, two trillion, that has to be finance somehow and all that money is going to finance government instead of being put to other uses.
我是说，我们的国库，我们的政府债务，大约三到两万亿美元左右，这些都必须通过某种方式融资，而所有这些钱都用于政府融资，而不是用于其他用途。
Paragraph 6:
So I think that the downsides are already here. You can't run two trillion dollar deficits every year. That's unsustainable.
因此，我认为其不利影响已经出现。每年两万亿美元的赤字支出是不可持续的。
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Now I think that you guys referenced what happened in 2011. That's worth discussing for a second because I actually think that what was agreed to in 2011 was excellent.
我觉得你们指的是2011年发生过的事情。这值得讨论一下，因为我认为2011年达成的协议是优秀的。
Paragraph 8:
Obama and the Republicans in Congress agreed to a thing called the sequester where they agreed that they would freeze both defense and non-defense discretionary spending until they could get their act together and agree on what the budget should look like.
奥巴马和国会的共和党人达成了一个叫做“自动削减”的协议，他们同意冻结国防和非国防自由支配支出，直到他们能够达成共识并制定出预算方案。
Paragraph 9:
And so the theory was the Republicans agreed to the pain of freezing defense, Democrats agreed to the pain of freezing non-entitlement.
因此，理论是共和党同意军事开支的冻结痛苦，民主党同意非福利的冻结痛苦。
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Social spending, and that's how the deal was cut. I actually think that made a lot of sense.
第十段：
社会支出，这就是交易达成的方式。我实际上认为这是很有道理的。
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And I think we should have kept operating under the sequester until we got to a balanced budget.
我认为我们应该继续遵守自动减支政策，直到我们达到一个平衡预算。
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But the reason that broke quite frankly is because of the lobbying power of the military industrial complex is so great in both.
但坦率地说，两国破裂的原因是因为军工复合体的游说力量太大了。
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The Republican and Democratic parties that they basically wanted the sequester overseas to keep raising the defense budget.
共和党和民主党都希望通过减少海外支出来增加国防预算。
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I think it's just that there's never been a degree of accountability for the spending that's being done because of this assumption that we'll always be able to pay our debt and we'll always be able to take on more debt.
我觉得问题在于我们从来没有对这些开支进行 accountability 的程度，因为我们一直认为我们总能够偿还债务，而且总能负担更多的债务。
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And I think that you see the other conversation, the other topic that we were going to talk about was this lack of accountability and defense spending that we should play the John Stewart clip.
我认为你们应该看一下我们打算谈论的另一个话题，那就是缺乏问责制和防卫开支，我们应该播放约翰·斯图尔特剪辑。
Paragraph 16:
I think who does he interview the undersecretary of defense or something? What is her title? Deptary Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks was discussing the defense budget.
我想他采访了国防部副部长或其他人吗？她的头衔是什么？国防部副部长凯瑟琳·希克斯正在讨论国防预算。
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When I see a state department get a certain amount of money and a military budget be ten times that and I see a struggle within government to get people like more basic services.
当我看到一个国务部门获得一定数额的资金，而军事预算是它的十倍，我看到政府内部为让人们享受更基本的服务而努力争取。
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I mean, we got out of 20 years of war and the Pentagon got a $50 billion raise.
我的意思是，我们结束了20年的战争，但五角大楼却获得了500亿美元的增资。
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Like that's shocking to me. Now I may not understand exactly the ins and outs and the incredible magic of an audit.
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对我来说，这令人震惊。虽然我可能不完全理解审计的细节和神奇之处，但我却知道……
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But I'm a human being who lives on the earth and can't figure out how $850 billion dollars to a department means that the rank and file still have to be on food stamps.
我是一个居住在地球上的人类，无法理解一个部门拥有8500亿美元预算却不足以让基层员工脱离使用食品券的困境。
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Like to me, that's fucking corruption. I'm sorry.
像我这样的人来说，那就是该死的腐败。对不起。
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And then there was a story that came out this week according to Bloomberg, the government accountability office disclosed that the Pentagon is currently unable to account for hundreds of thousands of spare parts for the F-35 jets.
本周有一则报道称，根据彭博社披露的消息，政府问责办公室透露，五角大楼目前无法核算F-35战斗机的数十万个备件的位置。
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The Pentagon has never passed an audit. The Pentagon has never passed an audit and it's accepted.
五角大楼从未通过审计，而这一事实已被接受。
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And it's acceptable in the same way that it's acceptable to never balance the budget to always spend and give everyone what they want and to find ourselves in this kind of late-stage problem where we've gotten away with it for so long that both of those factors, whether it's the downgrade on the rating, whether it's the fact that we end up in these battles over whether to raise the debt ceiling every couple of years or whether we can't pass an audit.
这种做法是可以接受的，就像不平衡预算、总是花钱并给每个人想要的东西一样，我们最终会面临这种后期问题，长久以来我们这样做得到了允许，这两个因素，无论是信用评级下调，是否要每隔几年提高债务上限，或者是我们不能通过审计，都是导致这种问题的原因。
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All of these factors are symptoms of the same underlying problem, which is that there is no accountability for how we operate the kind of fiscal condition of the federal government.
所有这些因素都是同一个潜在问题的症状，即我们在联邦政府财政状况的运作方面没有任何问责制。
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You know, the other thing it leads to is all these optional wars.
你知道，它还导致了所有这些可选的战争。意思是，它引发了一系列不必要的战争。
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So let me give you an example. So all of these wars are always.
让我给你举个例子。所有这些战争都是永恒的。
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They're all free. Yeah, they're all off-book.
他们都是自由的。是的，他们都是非官方的。
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So take Ukraine. We've appropriated what, 130 billion.
以乌克兰为例。我们已拨款1300亿。
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That's not part of the defense budget. We have 80 billion in the defense budget. And then we just stack the 100 billion or so for Ukraine on top of that and it's off-book.
那不属于国防预算。我们的国防预算有800亿美元。然后我们只是把约100亿美元的乌克兰资金加在上面，这就是一个离线账户。
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Now if we said the reason we're funding Ukrainians because it improves the national defense of the United States, why wouldn't they just come out of the defense budget?
如果我们说我们资助乌克兰是因为这能提高美国的国家防御力，为什么不直接从国防预算中拨出来呢？
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If you force people to make actual choices, actual decisions, and they could say, okay, we could spend 100 billion on Ukraine or we could spend 100 billion on stockpiling tanks or F-35s or whatever for the United States, now you actually force some prioritization decisions.
如果你强迫人们做出实际的选择和决策，例如他们可以选择在乌克兰花费1000亿美元，或者在美国囤积坦克或F-35等武器上花费同样的金额，那么你就会迫使他们进行优先级决策。
Paragraph 2:
But because the wars are always off-book, they're just additive. You just tack them on. And we did that with an Afghanistan. We did that in Iraq.
但由于这些战争总是不在账簿上，它们只是额外增加的。你只是将它们添加上去。我们在阿富汗也是这样做的。我们在伊拉克也是这样做的。
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We spent something like $8 trillion and that was just added to the national debt. Yeah, we can't afford these anymore.
我们花了大约8万亿美元，但这笔钱只是被算入了国家债务中。是的，我们再也无法负担得起这些费用。
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It's becoming clear to everybody that there has to be some accountability. And Chimada I guess seems like there's a couple of unpopular stances to take when you're running for office.
现在已经变得明显，必须有一些问责制。我想当你竞选公职时，采取一些不受欢迎的立场看起来像是会出现的情况。
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One of them is Social Security, Retirement Age. As we saw in other countries like France where people are arguing over 62, 64 years old, whatever it is. And so these entitlements, job requirements, if you want to get unemployment, and then of course, defense spending, you seem un-American.
其中之一就是社会保障退休年龄的问题。正如我们在其他国家如法国看到的那样，人们争论着退休年龄是62岁、64岁还是其他的年龄。此外，这些福利、就业要求如领取失业救济，当然还有国防开支，令人觉得不太符合美国精神。
Paragraph 6:
If you don't want to take care of old people, you seem un-American. And you know, weak if you don't want to support the government, is there a path towards celebrating an administrator as CEO and executive who tells honest truth to the American people, which is, hey, we've been on a binge.
如果你不想照顾老人，你似乎就不是美国人了。同时，如果你不想支持政府，你就会显得软弱。有没有一种方式能够让一位管理者成为CEO和执行官，并向美国人诚实地说出实情，即“嘿，我们一直在狂欢。”？
Paragraph 7:
We've been going on vacation. Nobody's looking at the bills. And we need to have a staycation. We need to cut costs. We need some austerity here. Is there a path for somebody, Ron Desentus, Chris Christie, RFK, whoever it is, to win over the American public, to win over moderates with an austerity?
我们一直在度假，没有人关注账单。我们需要进行居家度假，需要削减开支，需要实行一些紧缩政策。是否有一个人，Ron Desentus、Chris Christie、RFK，谁都可以，能够通过实行紧缩政策来赢得美国公众，赢得温和派的支持？
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And then, if you want to get a day, balance the budget, message, or is it just too un-popular to even bring that up? Right. Just think that you guys don't psychologically understand how to get what you want.
然后，如果你想得到一天的时间、平衡预算、发送信息，或者这些事情只是太不受欢迎，以至于不值一提？没错，我觉得你们可能并不理解如何从心理上实现自己的愿望。
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I think the best way to get what you want, which I would want to, which is a healthy economy where there's accountability for spending, is to not look at expenses. And all of this talk is always about expenses, but to look at revenue and limit revenue more drastically.
我认为最好的方式是获得您想要的——一个经济健康、支出有所问责的社会，不是关注支出，而是将目光投向收入并限制收入更加严格。所有那些关于支出的讨论总是忽略了这个方面。
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And I think the best way to limit revenue dramatically at the federal and state level is to just minimize taxation as much as possible. And I think that is something that Democrats and Republicans have a hard time fighting.
我认为，限制联邦和州政府的收入的最佳方式就是尽可能地减少税收。我认为这是民主党和共和党都难以反对的事情。
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Nobody wants to raise their hand and say, I want new taxes. Nobody says that. Right. And I think that if you attach that to some sort of spending guidelines, like what David says with a sensible foreign policy, you just end up spending a lot less.
没有人想举手说，我要新的税收。没人会这么说。对吧。如果你把这个和某种支出准则联系起来，比如像David所说的明智的外交政策，你最终会花费更少的钱。
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You want to fight a foreign war? OK, great. Well, you know what? It's part of the existing budget. Let's go figure out why we want to do it. We want to have more accountability and defense spending. OK, well, look, the defense budget is a half of what it used to be because we just have half the revenue.
你想打一场外战？好的，很好。但你知道吗？这已经是现有预算的一部分。让我们弄清楚我们为什么想这么做。我们想要更多的责任和国防开支。好的，看吧，国防预算只是过去的一半，因为我们现在只有一半的收入。
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I think that if you start to go and talk about austerity and cutting social security and healthcare benefits, it's literally a non-starter. People close their eyes. They plug their ears and you get nowhere.
我认为，如果你开始谈论紧缩和削减社会保障和医疗保健福利，那实际上是行不通的。人们会闭上眼睛，塞住耳朵，你将一无所获。
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Now separately, I think the step even before you look at taxation, so minimizing government revenue is to figure out how to refinance. So if you're a homeowner and you got a mortgage in the 80s, you were paying 12, 14, 15, 16%.
现在单独来看，我认为在看税收之前，其实更重要的一步是想办法进行再融资。如果你是一位房主，并在80年代时买了房贷，那么你当时的利率可能为12、14、15、16%。这时需要考虑如何降低这些高利率的贷款，以减少政府的财政收入。
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If when rates kept going down, you were the people around you, didn't have the common sense to refinance that. That was negligence. Similarly, we're in a position today to refinance our debt wall and push out these maturities past 100 plus years.
如果在利率持续下降时，你周围的人没有常识去重新融资，那就是疏忽。同样地，我们现在有能力重新融资我们的债务，并将到期时间推迟到100多年以后。
Paragraph 16:
We are the only country that has a viable, stable economy that looks like it can still continue to thrive at scale. Take advantage of that. You lose nothing by giving us the optionality, generating some 100-year debt, refinancing a bunch of this short-term stuff.
我们是唯一一个拥有可行稳定经济的国家，看起来它仍然可以在大规模上继续繁荣。利用这一点。通过给我们提供多种选择，并产生一些100年期的债务，重新融资一些这些短期债务，你不会失去任何东西。
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And then second, inflation helps us. And it helps us because it allows us to inflate the value of these dollars that allows us to pay off our short-term maturity.
第二，通货膨胀对我们有帮助。它有助于我们，因为它使我们能够提高这些美元的价值，从而使我们能够偿还我们的短期债务。
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So these are two practical, simple things that are uncontroversial that should happen today. And then separately, I think you need to look at minimizing revenue. And then you can cut expenses.
因此，这是两个实用且简单的事情，没有争议，应该在今天就实施。然后单独来看，我认为你需要减少收入。然后你才能削减开支。
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But if you flip them around, I'm just telling you, I want any of this to happen, but I'm telling you, nothing will change and you guys will still be crying wolf in five years.
但是如果你们反过来想，我只是告诉你们，我并不希望发生这些事情，但我告诉你们，什么都不会改变，你们五年后还是会在哭狼。
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It will still be the same. It will just be a different debt to GDP number that gives you anxiety. Speaking of anxiety, freeback your response.
它还是一样的。只是GDP债务数字不同会让你感到焦虑。说到焦虑，请给出你的反馈意见。
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I don't agree. I think we need to balance the budget. And I think that if we don't, we can continue.
我不同意。我认为我们需要平衡预算。如果我们不这样做，问题就会继续存在。
Paragraph 22:
What did you agree with? Financing, pushing out 100-year debt?
你同意了什么？融资，推出100年期债券吗？
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No, no. I don't agree.
不，不，我不同意。
Paragraph 24:
Reducing revenue solves the problem. I think that, and by the way, one of the problems with the democracy, Chamotte, is that you speak about it as if everyone benefits from a tax cut.
减少收入可以解决问题。我认为这个问题与民主有关，Chamotte。你把它说得好像每个人都会受益于税收减免，这是其中一个问题。
Paragraph 1:
Generally, there is some disproportionate benefit to a tax cut. And that's why it's less likely to happen because the majority will benefit by keeping taxes high for a minority, whether that's some corporate minority or whether it's some wealthy individual minority. And that's why I think the opposite is more likely to happen, which is we're more likely to see taxes go up in order to bridge the gap to continue to fund programs that everyone wants to, everyone wants an and they don't want an or.
通常来说，减税会给一部分人带来不成比例的好处。这就是为什么不太可能出现减税，因为大多数人会通过保持较高的税收为一部分人（无论是某些企业的少数派还是某些富有的个人的少数派）获益。这就是为什么我认为相反的情况更有可能发生，也就是我们更有可能看到税收上涨，以缩小差距并继续资助每个人都想要而不是要么或要么的项目。
Paragraph 2:
And as a result, they'll kind of continue to seek revenue because there are other places to get revenue that don't affect me, meaning it doesn't affect the majority. And I don't mean me personally. I'm just speaking about a voter and a voter would say, if there's a way to tax other people for me to get the things I want, they will vote yes for that. And that's ultimately what the system ends up finding. And I think that's what's more likely to end up happening. That's all.
因此，他们会继续寻求收入，因为有其他地方可以获得收入，而不会对大多数人产生影响，这意味着不会影响我。我不是说我个人，我只是谈论一个选民，选民会说，如果有一种方法可以对其他人征税以便我得到我想要的东西，他们会投票支持。这最终是系统最终找到的。我认为这更有可能发生。就是这样。
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Yeah, look, I mean, I agree with part of both of what you're saying, which is I agree with Fibre that we need to balance the budget. There's no excuse for running peacetime deficits this large. We're really going to regret this one day. On the other hand, I agree with Jamal that if you just try to solve the problem by raising taxes, the politicians will just keep spending. I mean, you have to starve to the beast, I think, in order to control it. At least that's been a view, I think, for a long time. Do you agree with Jamal on that point?
嗯，看，我的意思是，我同意你们两个人的观点的部分内容，我同意Fibre的观点，我们需要平衡预算。在和平时期运行如此之大的赤字是没有借口的。我们总有一天会后悔的。另一方面，我同意Jamal的观点，如果你尝试通过提高税收来解决问题，政客们只会继续花钱。我认为，你必须让野兽饿肚子，才能控制它。至少我认为这是长期以来的一种观点。你同意Jamal的这个观点吗？
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Here's the thing. You cannot solve this problem by raising up to 70% tax rates like we had in the 1970s and I can prove it. Well, if this chart, France is a good example of this too. So what you see in this chart here is this is federal C sub percentage of GDP. What I see when I eyeball this is if you were to put a regression line on that, it'd be at around 17% with a plus or minus of 2%. And the times when you get up to 19%, or a little bit close to 20%, or we have great economic conditions or money printing. So the Clinton era from was a 92 to 2000 was an economic boom. We got up to almost 20%, but we've never, ever been able to get more than 20% of GDP and federal tax receipts even during the 1970s when the top marginal rate was 70%.
所以问题在这里。你不能像20世纪70年代那样将税率提高到70％来解决这个问题，我可以证明这一点。好吧，如果看这个图表，法国也是一个很好的例子。所以你在这张图表中看到的是联邦政府税收占GDP的百分比。当我凭眼观察时，我看到的是，如果你把一个回归线放在上面，它将在大约17％左右，误差为2％左右。如果经济条件好或有印钞需求，你将会达到19％或接近20％。克林顿时代从1992年到2000年经济繁荣。我们达到了接近20％的收益，但即使在20世纪70年代，最高边际税率达到70％时，我们从未能够获得超过20％的GDP和联邦税收。
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What happened, Zach? Yeah, why is that? The people start doing economic activity? No, it curtail's investment in economic activity. This is the last one I've done. I've been talking about it for hundreds of years. Taxation doesn't solve this problem. I don't disagree. I don't disagree. I just thought. Blood from a stone. And the reality is, is that when you try to tax rich people in a confiscatory way, they spend a lot more on lawyers and accountants to figure out how to structure their income in a way that, or they leave. Where they tap out, you know, like if you're paying 50%, 60% taxes, like what's the incentive to go to work? And if you're sitting on a big nut, you can just be like, no, you know what, I'll just enjoy my life a little bit more because each incremental dollar 50%, 60% is going to taxes. And then I have to pay my team. You just sort of get to the other things I could answer.
发生了什么事，扎克？是什么原因？人们开始进行经济活动了吗？不是，它减少了对经济活动的投资。这是我做的最后一个。我已经谈论了几百年了。征税不能解决这个问题。我不反对。我只是想说，海底捞针。事实是，当你试图以没收的方式对富人征税时，他们会花更多的钱找律师和会计师，以弄清如何构建他们的收入方式，或者他们会离开。如果你要支付50%、60%的税，你还有什么工作动力呢？如果你手头有一大笔钱，就可以说，你知道吗，我会更享受生活，因为每增加一美元，会有50%、60%的税要交。然后我还要支付我的团队。你只是触及了其他我可以回答的事情。
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I asked a question on Twitter, you know, because we all talked in our group chat about the concept of passing a balanced budget amendment, which would be an amendment to the US Constitution that says, you know, Congress has an obligation and the executive branch has an obligation to generate a budget surplus, you know, every year. And you could have a balanced budget amendment that provides certain exemptions to this, like in a year of war, for example, where Congress declares an emergency or declares a war. And in those cases, theoretically, like if there's some sort of emergency that we have to address and overfund, you can kind of resolve to this. But man, I just might.
我在Twitter上提出了一个问题，因为我们所有人在我们的群聊中都谈论了通过平衡预算修正案的概念。这将是美国宪法的修正案，它规定国会和行政部门有责任每年产生预算盈余。你可以有一个平衡预算修正案，对此提供某些例外，例如在战争年份中，国会宣布紧急情况或宣布战争的情况下。在这些情况下，理论上，如果有某种我们必须解决并过度资助的紧急情况，你可以解决这个问题。但是，我的意见可能不同。
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But you know, we've been a war for something like two out of every three years since the Cold War ended. How many of those wars sacks were voted on by Congress as the other issue, you know? Well, what happened is we did the authorization for the use of force, I think goes all the way back to, was it like 2001, where it's basically we declare a war on terrorism in response to 9-11. And they use that authorization to go into Afghanistan, which I think was understandable. Then they use that same one to go into Iraq, then they use it to go into Syria. And only recently, only a few months ago, do they actually repeal that use of force as a way to keep authorizing new wars?
你知道吗，自冷战结束以来，我们大约有三分之二的时间在进行战争。这些战争被国会投票决定了吗？我们授权使用武力，我认为它可以追溯到2001年，基本上是为了响应9/11对恐怖主义宣战。他们利用这种授权进入了阿富汗，我认为这是可以理解的。然后他们利用同一授权去伊拉克，然后去叙利亚。只有最近几个月，他们才真正废除了这项授权，以防止授权新的战争。
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So they really should go back to Congress for every new war.
因此，每次发动新战争都应该回到国会。这样做可以确保行动的合法性和透明度。
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But the problem is, you know, Freeberg, I agree with you that we need to have a balanced budget amendment, but it's going to contain a caveat or exception for war.
但问题是，你知道的，Freeberg，我同意你的观点，我们需要有一个平衡预算修正案，但它会包含一个关于战争的附加条款或例外。
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Sure. And we're just in war all the time now. Sure.
当然。现在我们一直处于战争状态。当然。
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But I think that there's ways to create some mechanism that forces that issue to actually come front and center as opposed to being what you're arguing, which is, hey, it's always on the back burner. Therefore, it's always bubbling over.
但我认为有办法创建一些机制，强制将这个问题放到前台，而不是像你所争论的那样，总是放在后台。因此，它总是会滋生麻烦。
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And maybe you draft it in that way.
或许您可以以那种方式起草它。意思是说，你可以以一种特定的方式来起草一个文件或者计划，以便更好地表达意思或者达到目的。
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But what was surprising to me was just the incredible negative sentiment I got from so many people who are so deeply, have this deeply held belief that the only way to support growth in our economies through federal spending and that that has become the driver that has become the handicap of our country.
令我感到惊讶的是，我收到了如此之多来自许多人的极其负面的情绪，他们深深地坚信，支持我们经济增长的唯一途径就是通过联邦支出，而这已经成为了我们国家的负担。他们认为，这种做法已经成为了我们国家的驱动力，但同时也成为了我们国家的负担。
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It has become the handicap of our economy. It has become the handicap of our people.
这已经成为我们经济的障碍，也成为我们人民的障碍。
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And as a result, because it means that we now have this instead of having an incentive to drive productivity through private commercial and economic activity through innovation, through productivity gains through business building.
因此，这意味着我们现在不再有通过创新、提高生产力和建立企业的私营商业和经济活动来推动生产力的刺激。
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This now dependent on what we have now identified is a highly unaccountable system of spending.
现在我们所确定的是一种高度不可靠的支出系统，这取决于它。
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And that unaccountable system of spending ends up putting a lot of dollars into the pockets of cronies and the pockets of folks that aren't actually driving job growth or aren't driving productivity.
这种无法解释的花钱方式最终会让许多钞票流入朋党们的口袋和那些实际上并非推动就业增长或生产率提高的人们的口袋。
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There are certainly programs that work. But overall, there's no level or degree of accountability that asks the question, did that program work?
确实有一些程序是有效的。但总体而言，没有任何层次或程度的问责能够问出这个问题：这个程序有效吗？
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Did we spend a dollar and get more than a dollar back for what we spent?
我们花了一美元，收回超过一美元的价值了吗？
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There's no assessment of that, whether it's a war or whether it's defense spending.
对此没有进行评估，无论是战争或国防开支。
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There's always some kind of intellectual argument that says, I don't think that's true.
总是有某种智力争论，声称“我不认为这是真的”。
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I think the OMB releases a report after a report saying that all of this stuff sucks and doesn't do anything.
我认为美国办公管理和预算局一而再，再而三地发布报告，声称所有这些东西都是无效的，什么都做不了。
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Just nobody actually. No one cares.
其实没有人在意。没有一个人。
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You're right. You're right.
你说得对，你说得对。
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I think what you're saying is inaccurate. This is my point. I think it's important to get the facts right.
我认为你所说的不准确。这是我的观点。我认为把事实搞清楚很重要。
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What you are saying is not true.
你所说的不是真的。
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They do do an accounting.
它们确实会进行会计工作。
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That accounting sucks. It shows that there's tons of waste. Nothing changes.
这种会计方式很差，它表明浪费的程度很高。但是没有什么变化。
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So now what do you want to do, David? Is the real question.
现在，大卫，你想做什么？这是真正的问题。
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What do you want to do knowing that?
你知道这个之后想做什么？
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We shouldn't spend on things that don't have a positive return. This is my point.
我们不应该把钱花在没有积极回报的事情上。这就是我的观点。
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That's why we're now in this very difficult situation.
这就是为什么我们现在处于非常困难的境地的原因。
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That's not happening.
这不会发生。意思是原文所描述的情况不会发生。
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Now what would you like to do?
现在你想做什么？
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Well, the reason it doesn't happen is because the way that politics decides things has nothing to do with the merits of it.
道理很简单，政治决策的方式与其价值无关，所以这种现象不会发生。
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It has to do with someone for some time.
这与某人有关一段时间了。
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I am not debating that. I agree.
我不是在争论那个。我同意。
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I'm just saying what do you guys want to do now?
我只是在说，现在你们想做什么？
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Well, I think our education system has like fundamentally betrayed the country because we just keep teaching people that somehow the government can solve all these problems.
我认为我们的教育体系从根本上背叛了国家，因为我们一直在教人们，好像政府可以解决所有这些问题。
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And really, it's just a product of special interest lobbying for things.
实际上，这只是特殊利益游说的产物。这些特殊利益团体在游说中寻求自己的利益。
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And that's why we perpetuate these programs that don't work.
这就是为什么我们会继续支持那些没有效果的项目。
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I think the best way to think about government spending is that in every dollar, there's probably 15 or 20 cents that actually does some good.
我认为最好的思考政府支出的方法是在每个美元中，实际上可能有15或20美分是有用的。这意味着政府支出中只有一小部分能真正产生积极的影响。
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There's probably 15 to 20 cents that's like on the margins break even.
这里可能会有15到20美分的利润非常微薄，只能勉强收支平衡。
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And then the rest of it, which is half of it, is wasted.
剩下的一半则被浪费了。
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That's probably roughly accurate, right?
这可能大致准确，对吧？
该句意为对某个事情或情况的描述可能是正确的。
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You get things like tarp, which turned out to be a pretty decent program.
你可以得到像防水帆布（tarp）这样的应用程序，结果证明它是一个相当不错的程序。
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There were things like the DOE loans that got things like Tesla into the marketplace, right?
DOE贷款等事情使特斯拉等公司进入市场，对吧？
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There's things like the IRA today that will de-lever ourselves and create a piece dividend because we won't need to fight over resources and oil from other countries.
今天有像IRA这样的组织，它们会减少我们的杠杆作用，并创造一个和平分红，因为我们不需要争夺来自其他国家的资源和石油。
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But the problem is that that represents the minority of the dollars.
但问题在于这只代表了一小部分美元。
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Okay, now that we know that that's true and we've known that that's true for decades, I guess, again, I'm just asking a practical question.
好的，既然我们知道这是真的，而且我们已经知道几十年了，那么我只是提出一个实际的问题。
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What do you guys want to do now?
你们现在想做什么？
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Play the ball where it lies.
把球打到它所在的位置。这句话意味着在打高尔夫球时，不管球落在哪个位置，都必须以它所在的位置作为起点进行下一步的击球。这也可以应用于生活中的许多情况，即无论你面对的局面多么艰难、不利，都应该接受和利用现状，而不是试图逃避它或改变它。
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What do we do today?
今天我们做什么？
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There are a couple things you can do.
你可以做几件事情。
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One of the points I'd make is I think you're probably right in your assessment, that 50 cents that's what you're calling wasted, that money does end up somewhere.
我想说的一点是，我认为你的评估可能是正确的，你所说的那50分钱被浪费了，其实这笔财物最终也会落到某个地方。
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It ends up in someone's pockets, probably the pockets of the shareholders, of some contractor, or the donors of individuals or employees.
它最终落入某些人的口袋，可能是股东、承包商或个人捐赠人或员工的口袋。这些人最终受益于这项活动。
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Well, there's also individuals that benefit.
好的，还有一些个人也会受益。这句话意思是指还有些人会从中获益。
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But functionally, what's going on is it's a system of wealth transfer.
但从功能上来看，这是一个财富转移的系统。
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And that's not necessarily bad.
这并不一定是坏事。
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The question is, is the transfer of wealth happening to the right groups that we intend to support with these social programs?
问题是，我们所支持的社会计划是否将财富转移给了我们打算支持的正确群体？
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Or is it not?
这句话的意思是什么呢？
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And I think Sax's point, which I think we could all probably align on, is it's not.
我认为Sax的观点是，我们都可能会同意，即这不是。
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And I think that's probably a set of standards for accountability that we should probably try and create.
我认为我们应该尝试创造一组负责任的标准。
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But where does that money end up?
那些钱最终去了哪里？
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It ends up buying homes, feeding people.
最终它购买房屋，养育人们。
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They're going to restaurants, you're buying cars. And I don't like there's like a fleet of megayots in America. Well, I guess what I'm asking is where, even that leakage of 50%.
他们去餐厅，你却买车。我不喜欢在美国看到那些豪华游艇组成的队伍。那么我想问的是，即使有50%的泄露，它们到底在哪里？
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Doesn't that just end up in the normal economy? Yeah, it ends up supporting individuals and maybe the other ones. So why is that so bad?
这不是最终流入正常经济吗？是的，它支持个人，或者可能还支持其他人，那么为什么这件事情有那么不好？
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Here is what I was saying. But that's what I'm saying. It is a wealth transfer. It is a system of wealth. Where it ends up in people's pockets. And that that system ultimately benefits a lot of people in need and a lot of people that we as a society intend to support here in the US.
这就是我所说的。但这就是我的意思。这是一种财富转移。这是一种财富体系。它最终会落到人们的口袋里。而这个体系最终将惠及许多美国需要帮助的人和我们作为一个社会打算支持的人。
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I don't think it just goes to poor people. But that's my other point. There's this plan. But it's not just corporate welfare. Yes. There's so much corporate welfare. It's not all just going to needy people. It's going to your special interest.
我认为这不仅是为穷人所设计的。但这是我的另一个观点。有一个计划，但它不只是企业福利。是的，有很多企业福利，它并不都只是提供给需要的人，它也供应给特殊利益。
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On some level, we can accept the inefficiency of government. I like your idea of constraining how much of a canvas they have to paint with and how much revenue they bring in.
在某些方面，我们可以接受政府效率低下的事实。我赞成你的想法，限制政府可以运用的资金和收入的数量。
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And I think what we have to accept is that the reason this country gets bailed out is because we have tremendous entrepreneurs, an amazing capital allocation system, a very fluid market for building corporations and capitalism is so vibrant here that no matter what happens, we always seem to make the next Google Uber Nvidia, whatever it is, Airbnb.
我认为我们必须接受的事实是，这个国家之所以得到救助，是因为我们有众多杰出的企业家、一个令人惊叹的资本配置系统，以及一个非常适合建设公司的流动市场，这里的资本主义非常活跃，无论发生什么事情，我们似乎总能制造出下一个谷歌、优步、英伟达，或是Airbnb。
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And I can tell you, you know, spending a lot of time traveling, meeting with people in Japan, in UAE, etc. They're all looking at the massive entrepreneurial drive that we have in the United States to build global companies and how we do it over and over and over again.
我可以告诉你，我花了很多时间旅行，在日本、阿联酋等地与人会面。他们都在关注我们美国的巨大创业热情，以及我们一次又一次地建立全球企业的方法。
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And the only countries that seem to be able to do this at scale, you know, maybe Sweden and some of the Nordics, obviously China, but other countries have not figured out how to build global corporations. And that is what bells us out every time is entrepreneurial.
只有一些国家似乎能够在规模上完成这一点，例如瑞典和一些北欧国家，还有中国等。但其他国家还未想出一个建立全球性公司的方法。这正是我们救急的创业精神。
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Yeah, I take out the calisthenics. Yeah, the deficit is getting so big that we can't bail out that way. Think about it. We have two trillion in deficit every year. That is two Googles. Yeah, it's an Apple. It's an Apple every year. It's a great money. We're spending an Apple every year. We have to address it, but the point is that's how we have bailed ourselves out historically.
是的，我取消了日常体操。赤字变得如此之大，以至于我们不能再通过这种方式来解决问题。想一想，我们每年有两万亿美元的赤字。这相当于两个谷歌公司。是的，这是苹果公司的财富。我们每年都在花费苹果公司的财富。我们必须解决这个问题，但问题在于我们历史上一直是通过这种方式来解决问题。
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Is massive capital allocation and entrepreneurship? I want to remind you guys what happened at the end of the 70s. We had all these inflationary problems. We had all of these taxation problems where people thought all of a sudden 70% tax rates were going to solve the problem, what you guys talked about.
巨量资本配置和创业有关吗？我想提醒大家发生在70年代末的事情。我们遇到了所有这些通货膨胀问题，遇到了所有这些税收问题，人们认为突然出现的70%的税率会解决问题，这是你们之前谈论过的事。
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And instead the exact opposite thing happened, which was the guy that got elected. Ronald Reagan and I just want to remind you what the Electoral College was between Image and Recarter, 489 to 49. Like a bigger, just shellacking. I don't think we've seen in modern US politics, to the guy that basically said enough with this, we're going to tone it all down and we're going to cut revenues.
但实际发生的正好相反，当选的人是那个人。罗纳德·里根和我想提醒你，在伊映格和卡特之间选举团票数为489比49。就像一个更大的、惨重的失利。我认为在现代美国政治中我们从未见过这样的情况，那个人基本上说够了，我们要减少税收。
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So I do think that people have an appetite for them. And I think that people. Yeah, but the debt to GDP in 1988 was only 30%. So we just have a lot less drive out of it. I have a lot to work to do. We've got a lot to work to do.
我认为人们对它们有需求。我认为人们……但1988年的债务占GDP比例仅为30％。所以我们抽取出来的钱就比较少。我还有很多工作要做。我们还有很多工作要做。
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But let me say this. Look, Chamath, I actually agree with what you're saying in this sense. OK, if you look at my simple chart of federal tax receipts as percent of GDP, OK, the highest it's ever been in the history of the United States is 19.75% in 2000. We had the dot-com bubble.
但是我想说的是，Chamath，我同意你的观点。如果你看一下我这个简单的联邦税收收入占GDP的百分比图表，美国历史上最高的是2000年的19.75%。那时我们有一个互联网泡沫。
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OK, that's the highest it's ever been. And we had periods of high tax rates and low tax rates. It never went above 20%. So the simple math here is you do a forecast of what do you think GDP is going to be over the next year? You get independent economists to do it. And you say the federal government can't spend more than 20% of GDP because we've never extracted that we've never figured out a way to extract it.
这是历史最高的税率。过去我们有高税率和低税率的时期，但它从未超过20%。所以，这里的简单数学是，你对未来一年的国内生产总值做一个预测，让独立的经济学家来做。然后你说联邦政府不能支出超过国内生产总值的20%，因为我们从未找到过超过这个数额的提取方法。
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It's perfect. More than 20%. Your logic is perfect. Out of the economy. The logic is perfect there. Your aggression is so. It's very important because what your aggression says is we're actually spending a lot of energy fighting over two to three hundred basis points at any given time.
这很棒超过20%。你的逻辑是完美的，超越了经济领域。那里的逻辑是完美的。你的进攻也很完美。这非常重要，因为你的进攻表明我们实际上在不断消耗大量精力争取每时每刻的两到三百个基点。
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Right. And what we should be focusing on is more important. Why are we doing that? Why are we spending so much time getting our pennies in a bunch over two to three hundred basis points? We need to stop wars, increase our education system, stop the wars.
没错。我们应该更加关注更为重要的事情。为什么我们要这样做？为什么我们要花这么多时间去追寻两到三百个基点？我们需要停止战争、改善教育系统，并停止战争。
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By the way, and inspire people to start companies and make it easy to start companies. The BIL, the IRA, and the CHIPSAC, all three. The biggest components in all three bills, this is Biden's signature legislation, is creating energy independence for America, which will have an enormous piece of it and you will not fight these stupid endless wars.
顺便提一下，激励人们创办公司，并且让创办公司变得更容易。这包括三项法案：BIL、IRA 和 CHIPSAC。这三项法案中最重要的组成部分是为美国创造能源独立，这将占据其中一个重要的位置，同时也将避免参与无休止的愚蠢战争。这是拜登的特色立法。
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Every single one of them goes back to oil, right? With the exception of. Always about resources. What has it never been about resources in modern history? Well, and now it's going to be CHIPS is the modern resource.
每一个都与石油有关，对不对？除了。。。总是涉及资源问题。现代历史中什么事情没有涉及资源？现在芯片将成为现代资源。
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In video shares jumped as much as 30% after reporting huge revenue guidance due to AI demand. Q1 revenue, 7.2 BIL, up 19%. Quarter over quarter, not year over year. Quarter over quarter. Revenue beat analysts estimates by more than 600 million for people.
在AI需求的推动下，视频分享公司发布了巨额收入指导，其股票价格一度上涨了30%。第一季度收入为72亿美元，环比增长了19%，并非同比增长。其收入超过了分析师预估值超过6亿美元。
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No, Nvidia is working on GPUs as opposed to CPUs, the graphic processing units. That are being leveraged in AI. There is a massive cycle going on. There's a line out the door to buy these when you see Twitter going into AI, Facebook, Google, and obviously Microsoft. All the cloud infrastructure is moving from CPU to GPU.
Nvidia正在开发GPU，而不是CPU，即图形处理单元。这些被应用于人工智能。这里正在发生一场巨大的变革，购买这些GPU的人排成长队。当Twitter、Facebook、Google和Microsoft进入人工智能领域时，所有的云基础架构也在从CPU向GPU转移。
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Yes, Freiber? Well, I mean, I was talking with the CEO and CFO of a major data center rate and they shared with me that they were seeing more demand in the last couple of months than they've seen in the prior 10 years. Almost all of that data center build up demand.
是的，弗莱伯？我的意思是，我和一个主要数据中心速率的CEO和CFO交谈，他们告诉我，他们在过去几个月看到的需求比过去10年都更高。几乎所有建立数据中心的需求。
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So they'll build data centers for software companies, for Internet companies. It's coming from GPU racks. These GPU racks are much more energy intensive, much more costly, but it's a pretty significant shift underway that businesses that historically didn't even operate their own data centers are now building out their own data centers, have their own training systems to have their own infrastructure to be able to run AI applications and tools. So it's a pretty significant shift underway.
因此，他们将为软件公司和互联网公司建设数据中心。这些数据中心将利用更多的GPU架，这将更加耗能且成本更高，但是这是一个颇具影响力的趋势，那些历史上甚至没有自己的数据中心的企业现在都在建立自己的数据中心，拥有自己的训练系统和基础架构，以便运行人工智能应用程序和工具。因此，这是一个非常显著的转变。
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All of the growth that Nvidia is projecting and highlighted in this earnings report yesterday is coming from their data center line of products. And it's a pretty significant, I mean, I don't know, people have said they've never seen a beep like this or never seen enough a guidance update like this of the scale where I think the street was looking for maybe a $7 billion guide and on revenue for this and they came out and said they're going to guide to $11 billion next quarter, which is just an insane bump for a 90 day outlook.
英伟达在昨天发布的财报中预计并强调的所有增长都来自其数据中心产品线。这是一个相当显著的增长，即使我不知道，人们说他们从未看过像这样的数据或者从来没有像这样规模的指导更新，即街上的人可能在这方面期望7亿美元的指导和收入，但他们表示他们将在下个季度指导110亿美元，这对于90天的展望来说是一个疯狂的增长。
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I was told from one of their major customers that they had to bag. He's in bag for thousands of GPUs and like the lobbying effort said there's a line around the corner to buy these and you need only use chat, APT or any stable diffusion, et cetera. And you see how long it takes to do a generative AI to use these products. It's like we're back to dial up modem, sacks. We're literally we're waiting for a computer to give us an answer.
我从他们的一位主要客户那里得知，他们不得不进行打包。他要为数千个GPU进行打包，就像游说活动所说的那样，有一条长队在角落里等着购买这些产品，你只需要使用聊天、APT或任何稳定的扩散等方式。你可以看到，要使用这些产品来进行一次生成式人工智能需要多长时间。就像我们回到了拨号调制解调器时代，我们真的在等待电脑给我们一个答案。
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Since the last time that happened that we had to sit there and wait for it to do its job. And I think this is the great renewal for America, another amazing American company. It's only three decades old. It's best years, it's best decades are in front of it, obviously. This is going to be a massive boon for not only Nvidia, but for America or I say, say America. Yeah. Nvidia has basically joined the trillion dollar club now in terms of more hiccup companies.
这已经是我们最后一次被迫坐在那里等待它完成工作了。我认为这是美国的一次伟大的复兴，又一个惊人的美国公司。它只有三十年的历史，它的黄金时期，最好的十年还在前面，显然。这将不仅是对英伟达的巨大助力，而且也将是对美国的巨大助力。是的，英伟达现在已经加入了万亿美元俱乐部，成为更多企业中的佼佼者。
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It's really amazing. I mean, I'm kind of kicking myself because this was the easiest by ever. That GPT launched on November 30th. We all saw that that immediately ushered in a whole new era in Silicon Valley. There's a ton of VC funding that's poured into AI startups. They all need to train models and those models need to use GPUs. So we all saw this coming and I'm kind of annoyed with myself.
这太神奇了。我的意思是，我有点后悔，因为这是我迄今为止最简单的生意。GPT在11月30日推出后，我们立刻看到了硅谷开启了一个全新的时代。大量的风投资金涌入人工智能初创企业。它们都需要训练模型，而这些模型需要使用GPU。所以我们都看到了未来的趋势，我有点自责。
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Let me ask you a question. So you say that you kicked yourself obviously the general statement that AI is coming and Nvidia is going to be a beneficiary or Nvidia's products are going to see a boon make sense. But when you look at the valuation of the business, they are currently trading at 70 times the next 12 months evita.
让我问你一个问题。你说人工智能正在到来，Nvidia将是受益者，或者Nvidia的产品将会迎来繁荣，这是一个明显的普遍性陈述。但是当你看到这家公司的估值时，它们目前的交易价格是未来12个月经营利润的70倍。
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So how do you think about valuation even at a trillion dollar market cap, at a trillion dollar market cap, they're trading at 70 times next 12 months evita. This seems like they're doubling revenue every six months though, dude. They're doubling revenue.
在万亿美元市值下，你对估值怎么看呢？在这个市值下，他们的交易价格是未来12个月内盈利的70倍。不过，看起来他们每六个月就要翻倍收入了，朋友。他们的收入正在翻番增长。
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I have a big question here. How high does it go? Because at a trillion dollars, what's the right EBITDA level for a business to be worth a trillion dollars? What's the number? And then the question is if it's a hundred billion, how many years does it take them to grow into that and are you really paying the right price or are you paying a premium to get?
我在这里有一个重要问题，那就是它会飙升到多高呢？因为一个万亿美元的企业，它的EBITDA水平应该达到多少，才能达到这个价值？有没有具体的数字呢？而且问题是，如果一个企业的EBITDA水平只有一千亿美元，他们需要多少年才能成长到这个水平，你是否真的为正确的价格买进，或者你是为了高溢价而买入呢？
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It's a momentum stock man. And we'll be determined if they have competition.
这是一只动能股票。如果它们有竞争对手，我们将会做出决策。
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So is there competition for this company? Chim off you think there's a competitor that will emerge?
那么这家公司是否面临竞争？您认为会出现竞争对手吗？
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Yeah, I mean it's important to understand what a GPU is maybe. So Intel had the run of the place for the first 40 years of compute because it turned out that most of the things that we used it for, Excel, Microsoft Word, a browser operated well on a CPU, which essentially think about it as like a factory that takes in the first order and then puts it out first and first out.
是的，我想了解GPU的含义很重要。因为在计算领域的前40年里，英特尔一直占据着主导地位，这是因为我们使用计算机的大多数任务，如Excel、Microsoft Word和浏览器，都能够很好地在CPU上运行。可以将CPU想象成一个工厂，它按照接收到的第一个订单先进先出地进行处理。
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And the great thing about GPUs is that it can take multiple streams of work at the same time and work on them at the same time, right? So it's very parallel and it has this level of parallelism that makes it very well suited for AI applications.
GPU的极好之处在于它能够同时执行多个工作流，并同时处理它们，对吧？因此，GPU非常并行化，拥有这种使其非常适合于AI应用的并行性水平。
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I think the thing to keep in mind is that it is a byproduct of a GPU that tries to also do other things. And so as a result of that, you're now seeing a lot of companies building their own silicon and most importantly, all the big tech companies now have some pretty well evolved efforts underway. A lot of these companies have figured out how to do custom ASICs that can do this massively parallel processing.
我认为需要记住的是，GPU产生了它也试图做其他事情的副产品。因此，作为结果，你现在看到很多公司正在建立自己的芯片，最重要的是，所有的大型科技公司现在都有一些相当成熟的努力正在进行中。这些公司中许多都已经找到了如何制造可以进行大规模并行处理的定制ASIC的方法。
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And what you're now seeing is chips that are designed against specific models that are optimized for them. The other thing that you're also seeing is that some people are saying, well, you know what? For these massive models, actually, you should just run it all in memory. And so you're having folks that are doing it in massive arrays of FPGA's. That was Microsoft first attempt at all of this.
现在你看到的芯片是针对特定模型进行设计并对其进行了优化。另外，有些人认为，对于这些庞大的模型，实际上应该将它们全部运行在内存中。因此，有些人正在使用大量的FPGA阵列来进行操作。这是微软首次尝试所有这些工作。
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So what is the point of me telling you this? I think that, again, we talked about this last week. The biggest cheerleaders of this first point of value creation has really been Wall Street and family offices that wanted to front run where the value creation was going to initially go. And they've been right, which is around chips.
那么我告诉你这个的意义是什么呢？我认为，上周我们也谈到了这个问题。这个价值创造的第一步最大的支持者其实是华尔街和家族办公室，他们想要抢先看清最初的价值创造方向。他们是正确的，这方向就是芯片。
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But there was a tweet and Nick, I posted it. Maybe you can throw it up here that shows that if you compare this to the mobile internet, there's always this phased approach in terms of value creation where, let's just say, actually in a new market, mobile a decade ago in AI today, the first dollar of profits tends to go to the chip companies.
但是有一条推特，Nick，我发布了它。也许你可以把它放在这里，显示如果将此与移动互联网进行比较，则价值创建方面总是采用分阶段方法，在新市场中，例如十年前的移动互联网和今天的人工智能，第一美元利润通常流向芯片公司。
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That makes a lot of sense, right? Because they're the ones that are in the bowels of making the elemental capabilities possible. And then you transition that value. And what free bricks as is people realize, hey, hold on, the profit dollars are not going to accrue there because again, this beautiful principle of capitalism is that you can only over earn for a certain amount of time because then competitors emerge and say, hold on, I want to steal those profit dollars from you and take them for myself. So margins compress, right?
这很有道理，不是吗？因为他们才是让这些基本能力成为可能的制造者。然后你转化这个价值。而自由积木的情况是人们认识到，嘿，利润并不会在那里积累，因为资本主义这个美丽的原则是你只能在一定时间内过度挣钱，因为竞争对手出现并说：“等一下，我想从你那里窃取那些利润，并将它们留给自己。”所以利润率压缩了，对吧？
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So in the end, Nvidia's gains today will be then spread across Nvidia, Facebook will have their own chip, Amazon will have their own chip, Google already does. Apple will have their own chip. All the memory companies will be in this space, right? So then the profits get smeared there, multiples compress.
所以最终，今天 Nvidia 的收益将会分散至 Nvidia 公司、Facebook 将拥有自己的芯片、Amazon 将拥有自己的芯片、Google 已经拥有了。苹果将拥有自己的芯片。所有的内存公司都将进入这个领域，对吧？那么，利润就被分散了，倍数也会压缩。
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One word is the value grow to the device companies in the mobile internet. Here, I think we still have to debate what is a device company in the world of AI. But the most important thing I think to remember is that where the real value gets accrued is five, six, seven years later when the software and services companies show up and create a huge moat. And those are the Googles and the Facebooks and the apples of the world.
在移动互联网中，设备公司价值的增长是一个关键词。在这里，我认为我们仍然需要讨论在AI的世界中，什么是设备公司。但我认为最重要的事情是要记住，真正的价值在五、六、七年后积累，当软件和服务公司出现并创造了一个巨大的壕沟时。这些公司包括Google、Facebook和苹果等领军企业。
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And so it's a really dynamic moment. I think it's wonderful for Nvidia, it's an amazing story for Jensen who's been really at this game for a very long time. By the way, there's a Jensen has a law of his own that is a sort of companion to Moore's law called Wang's law named after himself, which you can read about, which just talks about the variability of the compute capabilities of GPUs versus CPUs. So if you want to know that, he should get some credit for that.
因此，现在是一个非常活跃的时刻。我认为这对Nvidia来说是一件很棒的事情，对于一直在这个领域执着努力的Jensen来说，这是一个了不起的故事。顺便说一下，有一条类似于摩尔定律的定律，叫做"Wang's law"，它是Jensen自己写的。你可以阅读相关资料，关于GPU和CPU的计算能力的变化，Wang's law会做出一些阐述。所以如果你想了解这些，要给Jensen一些认可哦。
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But I think it's great. I think we're in the amount of one. Apple is also making their own GPUs. Here at the M2, that has GPUs in it. So you're absolutely correct. We're in the one.
我认为这很不错。我认为我们在一个数量级上。苹果也在制造他们自己的GPU。在M2上有GPU。所以你是完全正确的。我们处于同一水平。
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So we're going to have a few quarters for sure of this hype. And then the smart money will probably figure out where the next lily pad is. And then they'll go to the next.
因此，我们肯定会有一些季度充满热情。然后明智的投资者可能会找到下一个“荷叶”，再去下一个。
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Beautifully said. Beautifully said. Any other thoughts? Free break if we wrap that up on that.
说得非常好，说得非常好。还有其他想法吗？如果我们在此结束，可以免费休息一下。
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I wanted to show this AI demo from Adobe Photoshop every week or so. We see something that's insane. Incredible.
我想每周都展示一下Adobe Photoshop的AI演示。我们会看到一些疯狂的、不可思议的东西。
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And this one was we shared in the group chat. But for those. And we'll keep put this out. Shout out to Belzky. Yeah. So what we see here, if you're listening, is taking a Photoshop, creating an area. And then instead of like cutting and pasting it or refining it, you're putting in a text prompt and saying, oh, but expand the and make this widescreen.
这个是我们在群聊中分享的。但是对于那些没看到的人，我们会继续分享。向Belzky喊话。如果你在听的话，你会看到我们在用Photoshop创建一个区域。但是不是像剪贴和粘贴或精确调整，我们通过输入文本提示来扩展它并将其制作成宽屏。
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Or let me grab this deer out of a forest and then put it on a wet alley at night. And then let me highlight this wall over here and put a sign and put a red arrow sign. And it just generates it. And it's doing this. They made specific note when they launched this that all of this is done with stock photography. They have the complete license to so they can monetize this without getting sued like Microsoft is currently being sued.
让我从森林里抓一只鹿，然后把它放在一个湿漉的街道上。然后让我在这面墙上加亮，放一个标识和一个红箭头标志。它只是产生了。当他们推出这个功能时，他们特别指出，所有这些都是用股票摄影完成的。他们拥有完整的许可证，因此可以将其货币化，而不会像微软目前受到起诉的情况。
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And Microsoft actually in addition to the GitHub lawsuit. This turns out Twitter sent a letter over to Microsoft as well.
微软不仅收到了GitHub的诉讼，Twitter也给了微软一封信。
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So incredible demo. The producers here at all in as our production team grows producer Brian made a little video here.
这个演示非常令人难以置信。随着我们的制作团队不断壮大，制片人布莱恩拍了一个小视频。
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Here's Chimoff in before the Lorepianides. That's Tom Ford. Yeah. That's Tom Ford. This is when there are terrible. The hair is terrible. You look tired. The watch. Watch. No, I don't know.
这是在Lorepianides之前的Chimoff。那个是Tom Ford。是的，那个是Tom Ford。这时非常糟糕。头发很糟糕。你看起来很累。手表。手表。不，我不知道。
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I played poker. Literally I walked into that to that Cmbc. Oh my god. Really? You went straight from the poker table to the brutal to the squawk. How's that brutal? Well, I was in wait. No tie. But he's wearing a tie. He's a Tom Ford. Yeah.
我打扑克。实际上，我走进了那个Cmbc。哦，天啊。真的吗？你直接从扑克桌到了艰苦的场所。那很惨吗？嗯，我在等待中。没有领带。但是他戴着领带。他是汤姆·福特。是啊。
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He said to you. He said, Chimoff, try this without the without a tie. Is it okay? Oh, you were talking to Tom Ford. Great. What a flex. You know, Tom Ford is not twice in my life. I can tell you both stories. Okay.
他对你说，他说：“Chimoff，不戴领带试试看，可以吗？”哦，你在和Tom Ford说话。太酷了。你知道吗，Tom Ford我见过两次。我可以告诉你两个故事。
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Hold on a second. Yeah, I add, make a yellow sweater as the prompt here. Let's see if he goes to Bert from Ernie to Bert.
等一下。嗯，我打算用黄色毛衣作为提示。让我们看看他是否从厄尼转到伯特。
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There he is. Sri Lankan Bert as we call him in the poker group. Yeah, it doesn't quite get the borders right. That looks terribly. It looks like a worries, Jersey.
这就是他，我们在扑克团里称他为斯里兰卡的伯特。是的，它没有正确地描绘出边界。看起来很糟糕，像是一个破旧不安的杰西岛。
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Oh, there you go. Right. Pretty bad. Yeah. Yeah. Change my hair. Change my hair. Can we change his hair? Can we have the hair be less in sync? Less Hassan Manage and more. I understand why they call you a Z's on sorry. I think you had the hair go in there. The hair. Yeah, it's a lot of lift. Is that a buddy? What is that? Is it a buddy? This is like eight years ago. Is it what are you using clay or putty? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's like a stiff, it's like a stiff hair wax. I think it's how the hair wax. I've got it. Yeah. I've come such a long way since now. Much more style. Much more style.
哦，就是这样。对，相当糟。是的。是的。改变我的头发。我们可以改变他的头发吗？能让头发不那么同步吗？少一点哈桑·曼纳格，更多……我知道为什么你被叫做“对不起的Z”。我觉得你把头发放进去了。那头发。是的，它的体积很大。那是伙计？那是什么？这是八年前的事了。你是在用黏土还是橡皮泥？是的，是的。这就像一种硬发蜡。我想这就是发蜡。我明白了。我从那时起已经走了很长的路。更有风格，更有风格。
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I mean, look at Sacks as crazy hair as we probably did in the cold open.
我的意思是，就像我们在冷启动阶段看到萨克斯头发很疯狂一样。
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I thought on the Adobe thing for what it's worth is like, I mean, do they want a mulligan on this $20 billion Figma thing or do they get to see the ongoing revenues that Figma's generating?
我认为关于Adobe的事情，关键在于他们是想要对这个价值200亿美元的Figma进行修正，还是希望能够看到Figma不断产生的收入？
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I mean, you can be sure they're the moving to Lena con all kinds of stuff. It's a different product though. I mean, the AI stuff certainly has had an impact, but I mean, so much of the benefit of Figma is its web base, its collaborative.
我的意思是，你可以确定他们正在将所有种类的东西移动到Lena。但这是一种不同的产品。我的意思是，人工智能确实有影响，但是Figma的许多优点在于它是网页版的，有协作功能。
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It's like people kind of use it online to make stuff together. It's a little different than the other tools that they offered today.
这就像人们在网上一起创造内容。它和现今提供的其他工具有些不同。
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So you don't think it from September to now, like, nothing changes. They should just close this thing at $20 billion or they're half they're half pay. Do you think that they should pay a billion, break it up and then redo the deal at 10 and then it cost 11. They say nine.
那么你不认为从九月到现在什么都没有改变。他们应该在200亿美元时关闭这件事，否则他们将只支付一半的费用。你认为他们应该支付10亿美元，分拆后重新达成交易，在成本为11亿美元时完成。他们说是9亿美元。
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Remember, not all breakup fees mean that you can break up for any reason. So there's only, there's limited outs on what you can pay a breakup fee to get out of it, one of which could be antitrust or regulatory. But otherwise you may be forced to close in court if you don't have a valid reason for terminating the deal.
要记住，不是所有分手费都意味着你可以因任何原因分手。因此，你可以支付分手费来摆脱交易的选择是有限的，其中一种可能是反垄断或监管方面的限制。但如果你没有有效的终止交易理由，你可能会被迫在法庭上关闭交易。
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Their only hope is to get Lena con to muck it up. Yeah, some leaks coming out. Timoth is your argument more that they bought Figma top of market pricing, which no longer makes sense or is your argument that they're innovating so well that they don't need it?
他们唯一的希望就是让莲娜搞砸它。是的，有一些泄漏出来了。你的论点更多是他们以市场最高价格购买了Figma，这已经不合理了，还是你的论点是他们创新得很好，不需要它？
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I think it's a little bit of both, but it's more that I think this generative AI stuff allows you to refresh. I tweeted this out so Nick, maybe you can put it up there. But I think the first thing is that your feature set can catch up pretty quickly. So even if you set out a team and said just copy exactly what Figma has with a copilot enabling 50 engineers, that's like 500 engineers cranking on something. I would be surprised if they couldn't just replicate the product end to end. That's the first thing. Then the second thing is I think that you've seen VC funding basically crawl to a halt. And so the question there is how many of those companies are just going to stop spending because they're just not going to exist. And then the third thing is if we're sort of hashtag austerity, people are going to look at everything they're spending money on and try to be really disciplined about it.
我认为这是两者结合的结果，但更重要的是，我认为这种生成式人工智能技术可以让你重新开始。我在推特上说过这句话，Nick，也许你可以把它放上去。但我认为第一件事情是你的功能集可以很快地跟上。即使你建立一个团队，只是复制 Figma 的所有功能，并启用一个协作工具，让50个工程师务虚，那就相当于500个工程师同时开工。我会很惊讶，如果他们不能完全复制这个产品的话。这是第一件事情。然后第二件事是我认为 VC基金基本上停滞不前。所以问题是，有多少家公司将会停止支出，因为它们将不复存在。第三件事是，如果我们遵循“财政紧缩”标签，人们将会审查他们花钱的所有事情，并试图对它们非常有纪律地进行支配。
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If you roll all those things together, SACs, my thought is maybe the deal still makes sense, but does it make sense at 20 billion and does it then just create a whole suite of shareholder lawsuits after the fact that are just going to say these three things and regurgitate them at nauseam? That's the curiosity I had.
如果把所有这些东西放在一起考虑，包括SACs（强制性地将Senior Appointments Clause的限制纳入公司重组协议）、我的想法是也许这个交易仍然有意义，但它以200亿美元的价格是否合理呢？是不是会在事后引发一堆股东诉讼，他们只会无限重复这三点而已？这是我所拥有的好奇心。
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Well, so we're here. Let's talk a little bit about the state of Silicon Valley, SACs. We were talking offline after the show last week. You've slowed down investment at your firm craft. You're being thoughtful. You're working on the existing portfolios.
嗯，我们来谈一下硅谷的情况，SACs。上周节目后我们在线下也谈到了这个。你们在Craft公司已经减缓了投资速度，正在认真考虑现有项目的情况。
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How would you describe your activity so far in the first half of 2023 as a firm if you're so willing to share that?
如果您愿意分享的话，您目前的公司在2023年上半年的活动如何描述？
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My take on what's happening in Silicon Valley right now or tech more generally is it's a tale of two cities. It's the best of times for AI startups and the worst of times for everybody else.
目前在硅谷或科技领域中发生的事情，我认为可以被看作是两个城市的故事。对于人工智能初创企业而言，这是最好的时代；但对于其他所有人，则是最糟糕的时代。
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The AI startups, there's a lot of interesting things happening there and money is being pushed up them by VCs. It's very frothy, arguably bubbly, but then at the same time, if you're a pre-AI company, maybe the one that raised a lot of money and a big valuation in 2020 or 2021, it's a pretty tough time.
人工智能初创企业很有趣，并且风险投资推动它们的资金大幅增长。这种情况很冒泡，可以说是泡沫，但是，如果你是一家在2020或2021年筹集了很多资金并被高估的人工智能之前的公司，那么现在是一个相当困难的时期。
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I don't know of any startup, especially like later stage startups who are hitting their numbers. The one is reforcasting down. Everyone's missing. I think that speaks to the larger economy is not doing that well.
我不知道有任何创业公司，特别是比较成熟的创业公司能够达成它们的业绩目标。其中一个正在下调预测，所有人都没有达成目标。我认为这说明整个经济正处于一个不够好的状态。
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I think the economists a year from now may say that their recession had already begun. It certainly feels like that. That's what Drucks said at the SON conference.
我认为一年后的经济学家可能会说他们的衰退已经开始了，这确实感觉如此。这就是德鲁克斯在SON会议上所说的话。
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I think that startups are absolutely seeing that in their sales right now. Sales are slipping, it's taking longer, buyers are sharpening their pencils. It's a really tough environment, I think, for software startups that are actually trying to make sales.
我认为初创公司现在正在感受到这一点。销售额正在下滑，销售过程变得更长，买家在计算成本方面变得更加谨慎。对于那些尝试着实现销售的软件初创公司来说，它们正面临着一个非常困难的环境。
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AI startups are a little bit exempt for that because people are still investing based on the dream, not based on the metrics.
人们仍在根据梦想而非数据进行投资，因此人工智能初创公司在一定程度上是豁免的。
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I would say that we're very interested in AI and we're starting to make some investments, but we also like to invest based on metrics, not just on a dream. We're being somewhat cautious about how we approach it.
我认为我们对AI非常感兴趣，我们开始做一些投资，但我们也喜欢根据指标而非仅凭想象来投资。我们在接近此事时有点谨慎。
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You make a small seed bat in somebody who has a dream, if I can translate here, but if you're going to make a bigger bat, a series A, a series B, you're going to want to see some numbers on the board.
如果我可以翻译的话，你可以在有梦想的人中播下一个小种子，但如果你想做一个更大的蝙蝠，比如A系列、B系列，你需要看到一些数字在财务报告上。
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You're going to want to see some product in more things. I think that's a really good way of putting it because I think the standards change at each round.
你肯定会想要在更多的东西中看到一些产品。我认为这是一个非常好的表达方式，因为我认为标准在每个阶段都会有所变化。
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And at the seed stage, you can absolutely just make a bat based on the dream or just based on a founder. Great founder going after the AI space idea still a little bit to be flushed out, you can make that bat. 500K, 750K. Yeah. Bigger. Or even like 3 million will do as a big seed round.
在种子阶段，你绝对可以根据创始人的梦想或创始人自身来制作球棒。如果伟大的创始人想要进军人工智能领域，但仍有一些需要完善的地方，你可以制作这样的球棒。资金需求在50万美元至750,000美元之间。甚至更高，300万美元的大型种子轮也可以。
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But then when you get to series A and you want to write a 10, 12, $15 million check, we kind of want to see some revenue.
但是当你到达A轮融资时，想要写一张价值1000万、1200万或1500万美元的支票时，我们希望看到一些收入。
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Every time you get to series B or series C, we want to see like all the standard metrics. We want to see net dollar retention, expansion, all that kind of stuff.
每次你达到B轮或C轮时，我们希望看到所有标准指标。我们想看到净美元保留率、扩张率等等这些东西。
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It's really hard for the later stage startups because they raised and this is the lesson. If you're raising a 3, 4, 500 million sacks, curriculum if I'm wrong here, you're not, you have to build into that valuation.
对于后期创业公司来说，这确实很困难，因为他们已经筹集了资金，这是一个教训。如果你筹集了三、四、五亿美元的资金，如果我说错了，你必须将这个估值纳入考虑范围。
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And let's face it, that valuation A was never realistic. It was overpriced. And then B, you got the headwinds and your customer is saying, oh, you want 40,000 a year for this SaaS product, we'll give you 12.
让我们面对现实吧，A公司的估值从来就不现实，它被高估了。而且，又因为B公司遇到了阻力，你的客户会说：“哦，你想让我们为这个SaaS产品每年支付40,000美元，我们只能给你12,000美元。”
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And what position are you in to turn down the 12? You got to take the 12. You got three competitors who are going to roll up and take the 12. So it's hard.
你现在所处的位置可以拒绝这12美元吗？你必须要接受这12美元。你有三个竞争对手会接过这12美元。所以这很难。
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Actually, can I give you an update? Please. Remember I mentioned there was a startup in my portfolio, actually my angel portfolio. Yes. That was to be made a play around the cram down.
可以给你们一个更新吗？我之前提到过我的投资组合中有一家创业公司，确切地说是天使投资组合。是的，这家公司可以围绕“压低报价”展开。
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And I think it's absolutely tragic because of what I learned, which is the founders got cram down to because a year ago they brought in a professional CEO. And I think as a result of this, they're probably going to get nothing for 10 years at work, whereas if they had just cut costs.
我认为这很令人悲惨，因为我了解到，创始人们之所以会陷入困境，是因为一年前他们引进了一位专业的CEO。而如果他们只是削减成本，现在可能已经过了十年的辛勤工作，但现在却可能一无所获。
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Damn it. And you know, the company has 32 million of ARR. So imagine if they cut their own backs to a million a month, they could have run 20 million dollars of EBITDA, pivot to the private equity model, sell that company for 150 million, half would have gone to pay off the investors and the other half would have gone to the common they probably would have made $10 million each.
该死。你知道吗，这家公司年收入达到了3200万美元。所以想象一下，如果他们自己把每月收入削减到100万美元，他们可以运转出2000万美元的EBITDA，转向私募股权模式，将公司出售价值1.5亿美元，其中一半将用于偿还投资者，另一半将归属于普通股股东，他们可能每个人都会赚到1000万美元。
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And now they're going to get zero because they burnt too much money, didn't want to cut costs. They bought into the dream of bringing in the professional CEO is going to re-excellerate growth to never down out, never does. And so it's like so frustrating to me because I like feel so bad for these founders. I wish they had called me a year ago.
现在，他们将会获得零收益，因为他们烧掉了太多的钱，不想削减成本。他们相信聘请专业的首席执行官会重新促进增长，但是事实证明这从未发生过。对我来说，这非常令人沮丧，因为我为这些创始人感到难过。我希望他们在一年前就打电话给我。
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Because listen, yes. And here's the thing is if you're only growing 10, 15, 20% or even 50% of the year, you're not a VC backable startup. You are a private equity play. So you got to pivot to that model of making your business work as a casual positive business. That's how you're going to get an exit.
听着，是的。而事实是，如果你的企业每年只增长10％，15％，20％或者即便是50％，你的企业并不适合成为风险投资公司的后盾。你更适合作为一家私人股本公司运作。因此，你必须将自己的企业模式转变为以正常的营业利润为基础的模式，这样才能实现最终退出。
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And if you're growing 100% plus a year, you can continue to be VC back. So it's so important for founders to understand whether they're even eligible for venture capital anymore.
如果你的公司每年增长100%以上，你仍然可能获得风险投资的支持。因此，对创始人来说，了解他们是否仍有资格获得风险投资是非常重要的。
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And if they're not, you have to make a different kind of model work if you want to see a return. Yeah. And when this happens to cram down around, those founders, if they want a refresh, they have to prove their worth. They're not just going to get a refresh to keep the relationship going. This is $30 million in revenue. They don't need the founders anymore. Look, these guys have been working for 10 years. So even if they got a refresh, they have to put in four more years of work. And the other thing is this cram down around, I think was way too big. They raised 25 million with a 3x lick breath. So a lick breath. 75 million off the top. Off the top. They got to repay back. The big is triple. Yep. Oh my God.
如果他们做的不好，你必须使用不同的模型来赚回利润。是的。如果这种情况发生了，那些创始人如果想要重新开始，就必须证明他们的价值，否则他们不能只是为了维持关系而得到重新开始的机会。这里有3,000万美元的收入，他们不需要创始人了。这些人已经工作了10年。即使他们得到了重新开始的机会，他们还必须再工作四年。另外，我认为这个约束太大了。他们通过3倍的放款资金筹集了2500万美元，因此要还回75,000万美元，负担太重了。天哪！
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This is where board governance is so important. Chimapa, huh? Like, I mean, who is on the board of these companies? We don't know. I was on the board. I was on the board. I was on the board of these companies. These are people who have never had to build a company. And they may be educated or they may have been an executive company. And then some VC who was feverishly raising funds just hired some dope, put them on the board of this company. And then just the stupidity compounds and trickles down. It's so frustrating. Compounding stupidity. This is the beginning of the beginning. All of these people who have zero judgment are going to fuck so many companies up. It is the beginning of the beginning.
这就是董事会治理如此重要的原因。Chimapa? 我的意思是，公司的董事会成员是谁？我们不知道。我曾经在董事会任职。我曾经在这些公司的董事会任职。这些人从未经营过公司。他们可能接受过教育，或者曾担任过公司高管。然后一些狂热筹集资金的风险投资家聘请了一些傻瓜，把他们放在公司的董事会上。然后愚蠢就不断地累积和流传。这太令人沮丧了。愚蠢的累积。这是开始的开始。所有这些毫无判断力的人将会毁掉许多公司。这是开始的开始。
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And well, Chimapa, it's not just the bad board members. It's the view for so many years that who you put on your board didn't matter. And remember, there was all these VCs who had a model where it's like, well, we don't take a board seat. And they were selling that to founders as a positive as a feature as a feature, not a bug. And the reality is for a lot of VCs actually not being on the board probably is the best they can offer. But you know, that model works. That model works when everything is up and to the right where like this model of boardsies don't matter. Governance doesn't matter. That is a model in a boom where everything just keeps going up and to the right. But when you add a tough time, that is when you need a board member who's seen this movie before, who knows what a cram down round is, who knows what's going to happen to you at your hands when you get screwed into taking a three-hit story. You want the gray hair pilot. You know, in the right seat to say, hey, listen, we're going to get to some, you want that hair. You want that sex here.
而且，Chimapa，问题不仅仅在于板块成员的不良行为。多年来，人们认为在董事会上任命谁并不重要。记住，还有许多风险投资公司有一个模式，例如“我们不会占据董事会席位”。他们将这种模式作为一种优势，而不是缺陷出售给创始人。实际上，对于许多风险投资公司而言，不在董事会上可能是他们能够提供的最好的服务。但你知道，这种模式只在一切都上升和向右时才起作用，这种“董事会不重要、治理不重要”的模式只适用于繁荣时期。但当面临困难时，你需要一位曾经见过这一幕，了解什么是减价轮，知道当你被迫接受一个三流故事时会发生什么的董事会成员。你需要那些头发花白的机长，坐在正确的座位上，告诉你，“嘿，我们会到达某个地方，你需要这种经验。”
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Alright, Freeberg, you are always candid about your own journey. You've had huge wins, climate.com for a belly racing funds. But you know, sometimes things don't work out. What do you, what's your take on some of these hard lessons of great ideas, you know, spun up during this really hard market?
好的，弗里伯格，你总是坦率地谈论自己的经历。你已经取得了巨大的胜利，如为Climate.com筹集资金。但是你知道，有时事情并不顺利。在这个艰难的市场中，你如何看待一些伟大想法中的艰难教训？
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I mean, I think just to echo the point you guys are making in the last 15 years, we've been in a call it structurally inflated environment because of the zero interest rate policy since the O8 financial crisis. And everything's been up into the right or so much. It's been so easy to kind of inflate things, fill up hot air balloons and go up into the right. And unfortunately, most folks who are working in the investor community that are sitting on boards weren't around for the dot-con crash the last time this happened. And I think, you know, just to kind of echo your point, why it's so challenging, I think, right now to figure out a way out.
我的意思是，我认为要重申你们在过去15年所说的话，在O8金融危机以来，由于零利率政策，我们一直处于结构性通货膨胀的环境中。一切都在不断上涨，这让事情变得非常容易，就像充满热气的气球一样，轻松地向上飞。不幸的是，大多数在投资者社区工作的人以及在董事会上任职的人都没有经历过上次这种情况下的互联网泡沫破裂。我认为，为什么现在要找出一条出路非常具有挑战性，就是要重申你们的观点。
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There are, there's a lot of failure going on in Silicon Valley right now. You know, Sachs, you talk a little bit about having paths for exit and options for SaaS companies. But there are many sectors in startup land that don't have those sorts of options in biotech, in symbiot, in FinTech, in direct to consumer e-commerce. There's a lot of markets that, and a lot of types of businesses that feel like there isn't a great way out. And it's having a deep psychological poll on entrepreneurs, on founders, on CEOs, and everyone is experiencing some degree of failure in this environment.
目前，硅谷存在许多的失败案例。Sachs先生，您谈到过SaaS公司有退出路径和选择的机会。但在生物技术、共生技术、金融科技和直接面向消费者电商等创业领域，有很多市场和业务类型感觉没有找到很好的出路。这对创业者、创始人、首席执行官等人都产生了深刻的心理影响，每个人都在这种环境中经历着一定程度的失败。
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There are very few folks who aren't feeling the secute pressure and the secute pain. You know, I heard some pretty horrific stories this week from a friend of mine and someone who ended up in the hospital because of the pressure he was under. And it's really trying. And you know, even within our friend group, I mean, not our direct friend group within our broader community of investor friends, there are very few people who aren't feeling this extraordinary pressure that they've got a book that is declining in value and they don't know how to get out of the hole. And you know, that pressure is like, is, generates deep questions about one's ability and generates deep existential thought for entrepreneurs and investors about what the hell am I good at? And no one's really talking about this out loud, but it is happening across the valley.
现在很少有人没有感受到安全压力和痛苦。我听到一个朋友和一个因为承受压力而住院的人发生的一些非常可怕的事情。这真的让人努力。甚至在我们的朋友圈之外，在投资者朋友的更广泛社区中，几乎没有人不感受到这种异常的压力，他们所拥有的资产正在贬值，却不知道如何走出困境。这种压力会产生关于一个人能力的深刻疑问，对于创业者和投资者来说，会产生关于自己到底擅长什么的深刻思考。虽然没人公开谈论这些问题，但这种情况在整个硅谷都在发生。
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We all have these thoughts. We all have these dialogues as the failure begins to set in in the slow motion, train wreck of a market that we've all been talking about for weeks and months. How do you deal with it? Look, I mean, I just think that number one, it's worth acknowledging and it's worth having the conversation that no one is alone going through this pain.
我们都有这样的想法。当我们一直谈论了几周甚至几个月的市场慢慢崩溃时，我们都有这些对话。你该怎么处理呢？看，我的意思是，首先值得承认并值得谈论的是，没人独自经历这种痛苦。
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It is not a one off that these companies are failing. It is that we are all dealing with failure right now. And we are all trying to figure out what is the best path forward. And it is the kind of thing that you just have to work your way through and you have to persist through this pain.
这些公司失败并不是个例。我们现在都在面临失败，都在尝试找出最佳的前进道路。这是一件需要通过磨砺，并且需要坚持度过痛苦的事情。
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But this existential question of am I good enough? Do I have the skill set I thought I had? Am I just an idiot? Did I blow it up? I have never had no clones, all the kind of interfere and turmoil that everyone is dealing with.
这个存在的问题是我够好吗？我有我想象中的技能吗？我只是个傻瓜吗？我犯了错误吗？我从来没有遇到过没有克隆的情况，所有人都面临干扰和动荡。
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You are not alone going through it. A lot of entrepreneurs, a lot of investors are in the exact same place. Now with respect to going forward, I think having integrity with respect to how you handle these situations and having thoughtfulness about your reputation because this is not a one and done environment here in Silicon Valley.
你并不是独自面对这个问题。很多创业者和投资人都处于同样的困境中。现在，关于未来的发展，我认为在处理这些情况时保持诚信，关注声誉，考虑周到，因为硅谷的环境不是一劳永逸的。
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Failure is part of the process. And how you deal with people, deal with investors, deal with entrepreneurs, deal with each other, deal with your employees during these difficult times says a lot about your character and your ability. When you do this the next time, it will set you up for success.
失败是过程的一部分。在这些困难时期，您如何与人打交道、与投资者打交道、与企业家打交道、与彼此打交道、与员工打交道，都能说明您的性格和能力。当您下次再尝试时，这将为您带来成功。
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And as any great athlete will tell you, you build muscle during the times that you are failing and then you are ready to go and execute the next time around. So let's save it for the next quarter. But let's play well as best we can right now through this quarter. Richemoth, clearly you want to jump in here.
任何一位伟大的运动员都会告诉你，在你失败的时候，你会建立肌肉，然后你准备好在下一次尝试中执行。所以让我们把它留到下一个季度。但是让我们尽可能在本季度内打得好。Richemoth，显然你想要加入到这里。
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What are your thoughts on separating your identity from your startup, from your work and having a more balanced view of yourself so that when things go wrong, maybe you're not as devastated and don't wind up in a hospital bed.
你对于在创业过程中与自身身份、工作进行分离并保持更加平衡的看法是什么？这样做的好处是，在事情出错时，你就不会像之前那样心如刀割，以至于需要住进医院。
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When things go wrong, they go wrong in bunches. Just like when things go right, they tend to go right in bunches. I called Free Bird last week and I was telling him a story about two or three of my businesses just all just pounding, eating dirt. And what I said to him was and then we have a mutual investment that's doing pretty well.
当事情出了问题，通常会集中出现问题。同样地，当事情顺利时，它们也会集中顺利。上周我给Free Bird打了电话，告诉他我经营的两三家企业都失败了。但是我和他共同的一项投资却做得很不错。
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And I needed to use the one that was doing well to make myself feel better about the three-fever eating dirt. And I said to him something to the effect of it's just like nothing is working. I feel like literally nothing is working. It's tough place to be. The only thing that you can do in those moments is just realize it would be so much worse to just be on the sidelines.
我需要用那个表现良好的事情来让自己感觉好些，来补偿那些失败的挫败感。我对他说类似于“感觉什么都不顺利，好像真的什么都不顺利。”这是一种很难受的处境。然而，唯一能做的事就是意识到，仅仅站在旁观者的位置更加糟糕。
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Oh, I like it. And I think that's all you can do. Then you go and hang out with your friends, go hang out with your family, kiss your wife, have as good of a time as possible outside the context of work and then you just start with the grind again. But we are in a moment where in most companies there is something pretty wrong. It's either your burn product, your customers team, and riff, and by the way, that's always the problem. But it tends to be balanced by a few things in your portfolio that are always going well so that as an investor you can maintain some equanimity through the whole process.
哦，我喜欢这样的状态。我认为你能做的就是这些。然后你可以去和朋友们一起玩，和家人一起出去，亲吻你的妻子，在工作之外尽可能享受愉快的时光，然后再开始努力工作。但我们现在处于大多数公司中存在一些问题的时刻。可能是你的产品推向市场较慢，或者客户团队不协调，以及可能需要解雇员工问题。顺便说一下，这通常是问题所在。但是，通常还存在一些投资组合中的好处，在整个过程中，你作为一个投资者可以保持一些平衡。
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But Freeberg is right when there aren't enough of these positives and there's just a parade of terrible. You're just like, wow, this whole portfolio is it all about to fail? And then I get a massive wave of imposter syndrome of like, what am I doing here? And then I have to recognize holy shit. This is my 24th year. Take a deep breath.
当这些积极因素不足时，Freeberg是正确的，只是一连串的可怕事情。你会感到惊讶，整个投资组合是否都要失败了？然后我会浪费大量时间，像是一个骗子一样。我要认识到：这是我第24年了，要深呼吸。
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And it's great that it's exhilarating where I think it's back to 2000 and I just immigrated here. That's the conversation to Martha and I had. It's beautiful talking about like a string of difficult things we were all dealing with. A couple of weeks ago we announced that we returned all the money to all our customers at Cana, which was this molecular beverage printer company I've been working on for a few years.
这感觉太棒了，就好像回到了2000年我刚移民到这里的时候。我和玛莎谈论了这个话题，我们说了许多艰难的事情。几周前，我们宣布将所有Cana客户的钱全部退还，这家公司是我几年来一直在经营的分子饮料打印公司。
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I plowed north of $30 million of our capital into building this business. We had two term sheets last year, both of which vaporized as the markets that degraded. It was really a brutal experience for me and these were very high valuations and we were, we needed funding to get the production line stood up to manufacture that device. So we were that close. I'm in.
我将3千万美元的资本投入在这个业务上。去年我们有两份可行的资金方案，但由于市场不景气，两份方案都消失了。这对我来说真是一次残酷的经历，因为这些估值很高，我们需要资金建立生产线以制造设备。我们距离目标非常接近。我很坚定。
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And as the market went south, pre-revenue hardware companies became less fundable and despite our reputation and a great working product and a manufacturing ready prototype, we couldn't get it done. It was a really kind of brutal experience to go through the nose. Even after you've had a lot of success in your life, believe it or not, you still get a lot of friggin' nose and you get a lot of, I don't believe you. And then to just have to get to a point with this one was really difficult and there's been other kind of frustrating experiences of late.
随着市场的下跌，无营收的硬件公司变得不太容易获得资金。尽管我们名声在外，拥有一款出色的产品和一份生产就绪的原型，但我们仍然不能做到。这是一次相当残酷的经历。即使你在生活中取得了很多成功，你仍会遇到很多挫折和不信任。然后就必须在这方面达到一个难以置信的点，这真的很困难。最近还有其他令人沮丧的经历。
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And then you kind of have a call one day with another investment and you're like, oh my God, this thing could be a home run. And that just comes out of nowhere. And as long as we kind of stay in it as an investor and you keep it as a builder and you kind of keep building, you don't know when that good knock on the door is going to come. Yep. You got to stay in the game. You got to stay in the game. And one day you just nail a sale that you just weren't expecting or a partnership or an M&A inbound or something that happens that you weren't expecting. It pays for all the pain and all the loss and all the turmoil and all the downside.
有一天你与另一位投资者进行了一次电话会议，你会突然想到这个项目可能会大获成功。这似乎是出乎意料的。只要你作为投资者继续参与，作为一个建设者保持不断开发，你就不知道好运何时会到来。是的，你必须坚持参与，坚持参与。有一天你可能会得到一个意外的销售机会，或是合作伙伴，或是并购涉及，这些都是你没有预料到的，它们弥补了所有的痛苦、损失、动荡和风险。
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I always used to tell people, for every four days I'd be failing. I'd have one day of success. But that one day of success would get me slightly ahead of where I was at the start of the week. But 80% of it was failing. I mean, right now it's like 19 days of failure and one day of success. But that one day of success, the goal is you used to have a couple of those punctuated moments that are big enough that make up for all this stuff. If you just keep it, if you just keep grinding and if you just keep grinding as an entrepreneur, you keep grinding as an investor and stay in the game.
我曾经告诉别人，我每四天就会失败一次，只有一天成功。但那一天的成功会让我略微超过上周的起点。但80％的时间是失败的。现在，我已经失败了19天，只有一天成功。但那一天的成功，目标是你要有一些重要的时刻，足以弥补所有这些事情。如果你保持下去，如果你作为一名企业家不断努力，你就可以坚持不懈地投资和留在游戏中。
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Living with the power, etc. You're describing living with the power, though. There's a very relatable poker analogy in this. There's a guy that makes poker content. His name is Jonathan Little. He's great. He'll be up to Angel Simon. He's wonderful. I've been thinking about hopping into one tournament at the WSOP this year. It's one of the big buying tournaments, so I'm like, let me just take a little tournament refresher. I was just looking for any content and I found his and he had this beautiful slide, which he said, if you are a mid-level poker player, you should expect to final table everyone in 100 tournaments, roughly. I thought about that for a second and I was like, that's a 1% success rate. If that is your 99th tournament, you have to be pretty resilient to go through 98 losses where you don't cash.
你描述的是拥有权力生活。这里有个非常贴近生活的德州扑克类比。有个制作德州扑克内容的人叫乔纳森·利特尔，他很棒。他将在天使·西蒙的节目中出现，他很出色。我一直在考虑今年参加世界扑克大赛的一个高价位锦标赛。这是一个价值很高的锦标赛，所以我想参加一下小型锦标赛复习。我在找任何内容，然后找到了他的课程，他有一张非常精美的幻灯片，上面写着，如果你是一名中级扑克玩家，你应该期望在约100次锦标赛中晋级决赛。我想了一下，觉得这是1%的成功率。如果这是你的第99次锦标赛，你必须非常有韧性才能经历98次输钱没拿到奖的经历。
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You don't make the money and you're just putting money out. You're deep in a j-curve and you're like, is this ever going to work out for me? It's a really, really good reminder that it is the grind. I thought that was really interesting. You had a single or double, I guess, with Collin, maybe you could talk a little bit about that experience and what decision you made there.
你并没有挣到钱，只是在投入资金。你深陷于J曲线，你会想，这对我来说是否会有用？这是一个非常好的提醒，因为这是艰辛的过程。我认为这非常有趣。你和柯林（Collin）合作实现了一次单身或双身，也许你可以谈谈那次经历以及你做出的决定。
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We were obviously investors, so we're a bit conflicted. I'd love to hear your candid thoughts on why you decided to sell. We put together a great team and they built an amazing product. I think it's by far the best social audio product and then they actually added video to it as well and podcasting features. It's the synthesis of video and audio podcasting with social audio. We got acquired by Rumble.
我们显然是投资者，所以我们有点矛盾。我很想听听你们为什么决定出售的坦诚想法。我们组建了一个伟大的团队，他们打造了一个惊人的产品。我认为它是迄今为止最好的社交音频产品，他们还添加了视频和播客功能。它是视频和音频播客与社交音频的综合体。我们被Rumble收购了。
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It's a base hit type acquisition. It's a small deal, relatively speaking, but the team wanted to do it and the main reason is because we got to hundreds of thousands of users, but in the consumer space, you really need to get to millions. Frankly, tens of millions is what it takes to have a successful consumer product. Rumble does have tens of millions of users. The team wanted to find a home and there's a lot of synergy with Rumble. If companies have a mission that's aligned around free speech, Rumble is sort of the free speech alternative to YouTube. It's a video platform.
这是一笔基本型的收购。相对来说，这是一笔小交易，但团队希望完成它的主要原因是我们已经拥有数十万用户，但在消费市场上，你需要达到数百万用户。事实上，拥有数千万用户才能拥有一个成功的消费品。Rumble确实拥有数千万用户。团队希望找到一个新家，并且与Rumble有很多协同作用。如果公司的使命是围绕言论自由，那么Rumble就是YouTube的言论自由替代品。它是一个视频平台。
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What Colin will do is give Rumble studio capabilities. It'll be very synergistic for all the creators to be able to create content and call and then post it in Rumble. It's not a huge outcome for anyone. It's sort of a push for the investors, depending on where Rumble stock ends up. Look, you can build a really great product and a great team, but unless you hit, that lighting in a bottle of distribution, you won't get to the next level. I'm happy about the deal. I think the team's happy about the deal and it's a good outcome for everybody involved, but it's not a home run. It's more of a base head and that's what most things are.
科林会为 Rumble 提供工作室功能，这将非常协同化，所有创作者都可以创建内容并在 Rumble 上发布。对于任何人来说，这并不是一个巨大的结果。它取决于 Rumble 股票最终的走势而言，对于投资者来说是一个推动力。看，你可以打造一个真正出色的产品和团队，但除非你在分销中获得成功，否则你就无法进入下一个阶段。我对这个交易感到高兴。我认为团队对这个交易也感到高兴，这对所有相关人士来说是一个好结果，但这并不是一个完全成功的交易。它更像是头儿，这就是大多数事情的情况。
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Getting used to a high failure rate and living inside the power law, where one investment out of 30 or 40 or 50 results in 90% of your funds returns for that specific fund or maybe two wins, represent 95%. That's a hard thing for the human brain to handle, as is, the J-curve, as Trimoth points out correctly.
第一段：
习惯高失利率并生活在权力法则中，其中30或40或50中的一项投资会导致该基金的90％回报或者可能有两个胜利，占95％。这对人类大脑来说是一件难以处理的事情，正如Trimoth所正确指出的那样，曲线上的J形也是如此。
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Man, you invest for two or three years and then you watch that all those things go down in value for two or three years. The value, I'm sure, of the portfolio go down for two or three years before it actually rebounds and goes back up.
兄弟，你投资了两三年，然而接下来你却看到这些投资在接下来的两三年内贬值。我敢肯定，在这些投资组合价值真正回升之前，它们要贬值两三年。
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I remember, man, I had a run where everything I touched turned to gold and then Mahalo hit 10 million in revenue and then, boom, Panned Update. It just goes up and smoking. You're like, what just happened? I saw web logs 18 months after starting it. I had the Silicon Valley report. I just Uber investment. Everything I touched went to the moon. That's working. Yeah.
我记得，当时每次我做的事情都会变成金子，然后Mahalo收入达到了1000万美元，接着就突然出现了Panned Update。一切都一下子崩溃了，我很震惊。18个月后我看了网站记录，我受到了硅谷报告，我也投资了Uber。所有我接触的东西都被炒得很火。这就是工作。是的。
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And then it's just a very frustrating experience where you can't make something work and you know, like, I should be able to make this work. Why isn't it working? There's a very heavy blanket of humility setting over Silicon Valley right now. And I think all of us who have had springs of successes and repeat successes and things that we touch have worked and we do all the same things and we do the right things and we do them the same way in the right way.
然后，当你发现自己无法让某件事情运转时，你会感到非常沮丧，因为你会觉得“我应该可以让这个运转起来的，为什么它不行呢？”目前，在硅谷，一种非常沉重的谦卑感笼罩着整个人群。我们中的许多人曾经取得过成功，不断地重获成功，我们接触的事物都运作良好，我们都在做同样的事情，同样的方法，用正确的方式去做，但现在却无法再做到。
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It doesn't work and then it doesn't work again and then it doesn't work again. It creates a very different psyche, whether you're an entrepreneur building a business or an investor investing in businesses that what used to be the case isn't the case anymore is the tides have shifted.
这不起作用，然后再次不起作用，然后再次不起作用。它会导致一种截然不同的心理状态，无论你是一位正在创业的企业家，还是一位投资于企业的投资者，过去有效的方法现在不再奏效了，局势已经发生变化。
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It's a daunting challenge to work your way psychologically through this moment. But progress doesn't change. Innovation isn't going to stop. It's not going to keep shifting forward and the opportunities to continue to build and innovate are not going away.
这是一个艰巨的挑战，在心理上度过这个时刻。但是进步不会改变。创新不会停止。它将继续前进，继续建设和创新的机会不会消失。
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So I for one and deeply optimistic and excited about what the future holds. But man, you got to put your freaking game face on right now to get through this. Yeah, for sure.
因此，我个人对未来充满乐观和兴奋。但是，现在你得把你的狂野游戏脸放上来，才能渡过难关。是的，肯定的。
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Well, yeah, and I would say there's one other exogenous variable here, which is I don't think any of us realized how much our sentiment was affected by one guy's decision at the Fed. Yeah. Yeah, because you know what, when there's a lot of money in the system, everyone feels great. Totally. And all the portfolios look great. And when the money is being sucked out of the system.
嗯，我觉得还有一个外在因素，就是我们没有意识到我们的情绪会受到联邦储备委员会某个人的决定影响有多大。当系统中有很多钱时，每个人都感觉很好，所有的投资组合看起来都很棒。而当资金被抽出系统时……
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The buyers are buying. Oh my God. Like when the money is being sucked out of the system, everyone's results look terrible. Yeah. It's, you know, it's like before a tsunami, the big wave gets pulled out and then this tsunami comes in. Yeah. The money is being sucked out of the system like the tie before a tsunami and the tsunami is going to be all the failures and bankruptcies. But what I would say is just in the same way that things weren't as good as they appear to be during the asset bubble, they're probably not as bad as they appear to be.
买家在买东西。天啊，就像当资金从系统中被抽走时，每个人的业绩看起来都很糟糕。是的，就像在海啸之前，大浪会被拉出去，然后海啸来了一样。是的，资金正像海啸之前的涨潮线一样被吸走，而海啸即将是所有失败和破产。但是我想说的是，正如在资产泡沫期间的情况并不像看起来那样好，现在的情况也不像看起来那么糟糕。
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Now, however, you have to give yourself time to get through this. Yeah. So call it a recessionary cycle. And it's so frustrating to me when founders don't want to cut their burden. The burn is the one thing they totally control.
现在，然而，你必须给自己一些时间来度过这个难关。是的。所以把它称作一个经济衰退周期。对我来说，当创始人不想削减开支的时候，这非常让人沮丧。支出是他们完全可以控制的一件事。
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And they have all these excuses for why they can't cut to an earlier level spending that they were, the company was working fine at. And we can't get them to go back to cut back to some earlier state of being. So I've just like, if Zuckerberg can do it, they can do it.
他们有很多借口，称他们无法缩减开支至公司之前运行良好的水平。我们不能让他们回到之前的状态。所以我就像，如果扎克伯格可以做到，他们也可以做到。
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And you know, after seeing what Elon did at Twitter where he reduced the staff by 80%. I'm like, I realize there's no good excuse anymore. Yep. For not giving yourself the maximum chance of survival. And if you over cut, like he admits he probably did. He literally in the day, Farber, great interview he did with him. He said, you know, like we probably over cut, we cut people who were great. And we hopefully can welcome them back to Twitter as we get this thing on stable footing.
当我看到埃隆在Twitter上减少员工80%的做法时，我意识到再也没有借口不让自己有更大的生存机会了。如果你削减过度，就像他承认他可能做到的那样。在Farber的采访中，他说，“我们可能削减过度了，我们辞退了很出色的人，但随着我们稳定运营，我们希望能够重新欢迎他们回到Twitter。”
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But we're going to make mistakes because we had an existential crisis. Elon Musk cut too many people, admits it and says he's going to bring them back. It's no fault of theirs. And he said he's going back into growth mode. So, you know, like sometimes you cut, you might cut too deep is the point. And you know, that's set you up for growth. And if you had some of you had some of you in bed.
但是因为我们经历了一场存在危机，所以我们会犯错误。埃隆·马斯克裁员过多，承认了这一点，并表示他将重新雇用这些人。这并不是他们的错。他还表示他将重新进入增长模式。所以，有时候你裁员，可能裁得太深了，这是为了未来的增长而做出的设置。如果你失去了一些员工，也别担心。
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I have two shout outs. Okay. Here we go. The first is to one of our besties. Got a tax from Jason Koon. He bink the main event at the Triton for $2.5 million. Yeah. Being credible. I mean, he's so strong. He's a guy's a beast. So, I like Koon. It's so great to have a professional poker player in our circle. Finally, like somebody who's great guy.
我有两个要表扬的人。好的，我们开始吧。第一个要表扬的是我们的好朋友之一。我收到了来自Jason Koon的短信，他在Triton的主要比赛中赢得了250万美元。太不可思议了，他太厉害了，简直是野兽。所以，我很喜欢Koon，我们的圈子中终于有了一位职业扑克选手，而且是个好人。
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He's just totally over time. And we can learn from him. Yeah. But he's so open and he teaches us open just to be around him, you know, rational, emotionally stable, rational, humble, humble, professional poker player. Like happens to basically be the best poker player in the world. But you could you would never know it. You would never know he never bring it up. Like he is literally the greatest. And he won the Triton 2.5 million.
他已经彻底飞越时空了。我们可以从他身上学到很多。他非常开放，教我们如何开放，让我们保持理性、情绪稳定、谦逊、专业的扑克牌手。他恰好是世界上最好的扑克牌手。但你永远不会知道，他永远不会提及。他是绝对的顶尖高手。他赢得了2.5百万的Triton比赛冠军，但你永远不会知道。
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Yeah. The second shout out is to the model Y team at Tesla. I have been a die hard model X user from the beginning. Right. I think I had number 13. So I've been I've had three or four of these things. And I was like, wait a minute. Maybe this Y is really all it's cracked up to be. And I'm a bit of a curmudgeon and I have high expectations, but I just want to say that car kicks absolute ass. It is perfect. Incredible. It is incredible. That model Y for going to be the best selling car.
这个段落是马斯克先生在阅读问答节目中的发言。他首先对Tesla的Model Y车型团队表示了感谢，因为他一直都是Model X车型的忠实用户。马斯克先生说自己是最早购买Model X车型的人之一，拥有了三四辆这种车。但他后来发现，也许Model Y车型真的很值得一试。尽管他有些挑剔，但他想说，这辆车太完美了，无与伦比。马斯克先生还预测，Model Y车型将成为最畅销的车型。
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It's going to be the best selling car in America. If you get the base level, it's actually cheaper than the average car in America now with incentives. It's so, so good. So huge shout out to the model Y team at Tesla. You guys nailed it. Yeah. It might be a reliable product. And we I love it.
它将成为美国最畅销的汽车。如果你购买基本款，它实际上比现在美国平均汽车还便宜，同时还有优惠。它非常非常好。因此，向特斯拉的Y型号车型团队致以最大的赞扬。你们做得太棒了。是的，它可能是可靠的产品，我们非常喜欢它。
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I don't want to diminish the X. I don't want to diminish the price of the car. But the Y is so sustainable. It's incredible. It's the best car ever made. It is. It is the best. Yeah. It's a great car. It's a great, great car.
我不想贬低X。我也不想贬低车的价格。但是Y非常可持续，而且令人难以置信。它是有史以来最好的车。它真的是最好的车。是的，它是一辆极好的车，真的很棒。
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It's a great car. I can't wait for the cyber truck. That thing looks like a beast. I can't wait to take that up a top roadster. I love the roadster. You know, I've been taking my 12 year old roadster out and my kids love going for ice cream in the original roadster 1.07. I've been taking it out every weekend or two or two. Any number one? You have number 16 of the roadster, which somebody offered me $4 million for. I paid $164. I have number one of the Model S signature series.
这辆车非常棒。我迫不及待地想要买电动皮卡车。那个东西看起来像一只野兽。我迫不及待地想驾驶它上山路。我喜欢这款跑车。你知道吗，我一直在开着我那辆12年的跑车，我的孩子们喜欢坐着这款原装的1.07款跑车外出买冰激凌。我每个周末或两周就会开它出去。你买的是第16款跑车，有人给我出价400万美元。我只花了164美元买的第一款Model S签名系列。
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So I have signature 16 of roadster. They did 100 signatures and they did a thousand signatures of the Model S. And I have number one of that and somebody offered me a million dollars for that. I have number of the founders edition number 13 of the X. Yeah. That's pretty special. Yeah. It's a special vehicle.
我拥有一辆 Roadster 的 16 号签名版，他们制作了 100 辆签名版 Roadster 和 1000 辆签名版 Model S。我的 Model S 有 number one 的签名版，有人给了我一百万美元。我还有 Model X 的创始版号码 13，这个车很特别。
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All right. Listen, everybody. All in Summit is basically so how are we doing? How is the all in Summit doing guys? We're starting to do our outreach and figure out speakers. Yes. Yes. So, it's exciting.
好的，听着，大家。 All in Summit 的基本情况是怎么样的？大家 All in Summit 进展得如何？我们开始进行外联，选择演讲者。是的，是的，这很令人兴奋。
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All right, everybody. Four. The Sultan of science, the dictator and Steve Bannon 2.0 David Sacks, the architect, the architect. The architect. I like that. I remain. I remain. The world's greatest moderator. So excited for this weekend, boys.
大家好，计数开始，四。科学苏丹，独裁者和史蒂夫·班农2.0戴维·萨克斯，建筑师，建筑师，建筑师，我喜欢这个。我继续留在这里。我是世界上最伟大的主持人。非常兴奋迎接这个周末，伙计们。
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See you tomorrow at the Tarmac on the Tarmac. Bye-bye. Love you, bye. We're like your winners, ride. Brain man, David Sacks. I'm going on a beach. And it said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it. Love you, S.
明天在停机坪上见。再见，爱你，再见。我们像你的赢家一样骑行。大脑人，大卫·萨克斯。我要去海滩了。然后我们开放源代码给粉丝，他们就疯狂地使用它了。爱你，S。
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I squeed a kid. I'm going on a beach. What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? What? That's fine. That's fine. Mesty is our goal. Go through it. That's my dog taking it. Let's hear it. I'm going on. Get out of my house.
我给一个孩子扭了一下。我要去海滩。啥？啥？啥？啥？啥？啥？啥？啥？啥？啥？没事的没事的，我们的目标是 Mesty，一起向它前进。这是我的狗，它拿走了东西。让我们听一下。我要出门了，请出去。
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We just have one big huge orange. Because we're all just like this like sexual tension. We just need to release that thing. What? Your aunt B. What? Your aunt B? B. What? We need to get乙. Mesty is our aunt. I'm going to leave I'm going to leave.
我们只有一个超大的橙子。因为我们都像是这种性紧张状态，我们只需要释放那种感觉。什么？你的B阿姨？B什么的？我们需要乙。梅斯蒂是我们的阿姨。我要离开了，我要离开了。