Duolingo 2022 Q4 Earnings Call
发布时间 2023-05-26 03:37:15 来源
Use your hips. Oh my god, what time is it? Crap, it's number 59 and it almost missed street. What are you doing? You can't miss me street, it's number 67. Legate. Sadoa Ligo, this is not the time to buy it. I'm sick of it, I'm sick of it. This is not a language, it's a little bit everyday. I think most people would agree that this will be an exception to that rule. Legate de bono aho. Can you at least silence it? Are you serious right now? Yes, I'm very serious. I'm going to come conversation, I'll have to write some enlistance. It's part of the book. Oh my god, cool. Get more with it. Oh no, do a lingo, crap with time. It's just hit me night. No, my street. I have like 90 days. I know. You got a stand-top thing, I was just down there. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. You got a stand-top thing, I was just down there. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know. I know.
用你的臀部。天哪，现在几点了？糟糕，它是59号街，几乎错过了。你在干什么？你不能错过我的街，它是67号。Legate。萨杜阿·利戈，现在不是买它的时候。我受够了，我受够了。这不是一种语言，是有点日常用语的。我想大多数人会同意这将是对规则的一个例外。至少可以把它调成静音吗？你现在是认真的吗？是的，我非常认真。我要进入谈话，我得写一些记录。这是书的一部分。哦天哪，酷。跟上节奏。哦不，Do a lingo，时间到了。它现在已经到了晚上。不，我的街。我还有90天。我知道。你得抵达，我只是在那里。我知道。我知道。我知道。我知道。我知道。我知道。我知道。我知道。
We hope you enjoyed that fun TikTok. It's one of the many examples of organic learner-generated content that goes viral every day without any involvement from us. And we love to see the creativity and enthusiasm of creators like this, which continues to drive our brand awareness and word of mouth growth. And now let's get on with today's call.
希望你们喜欢这个有趣的TikTok。这是许多由学习者自己创建而日复一日自然传播，而我们并没有介入的例子之一。我们非常喜欢像这样的创作者所表现出的创造力和热情，这继续推动着我们品牌知名度和口碑的增长。现在，让我们继续今天的电话吧。
Good afternoon and welcome to Duolingo's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings webcast. All attendees are in listen-only mode. Today after market close, we released our year-end shareholder letter with our Q4 and 2022 results and commentary, which you can find on our IR website at investors.duolingo.com. On today's call, we have Luis Fanon, our co-founder and CEO, and Matt Skarupa, our CFO. They will begin with some brief remarks before opening the call to questions. Analysts will be able to ask a question by using the raise hand feature. And please note, this event is being recorded.
下午好，欢迎参加Duolingo 2022年第四季度及全年收益网络研讨会。所有与会者均处于仅听模式。今天下午收市后，我们公布了年度股东信函以及Q4和2022年的业绩和评论，您可以在我们的IR网站investors.duolingo.com上找到。今天的电话会议上，我们有联合创始人兼CEO路易斯·法仑和首席财务官马特·斯卡鲁帕。在开放提问之前，他们将先简要发表一些意见。分析师可以使用举手功能提问。请注意，此次活动正在录制中。
Just a reminder that we'll make four looking statements regarding future events and financial performance, which are subject to material risks and uncertainties. Some of these risks have been set forth in our risk factors of our filings with the SEC. These four looking statements are based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of today. And we have no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events.
提醒大家，我们将就未来事件和财务表现发表四个前瞻性声明，但这些声明存在重大风险和不确定性。我们已在向美国证券交易委员会提交的风险因素中列出这些风险。这四个前瞻性声明是基于我们今天认为合理的假设，我们没有因为新信息或未来事件而更新这些声明的义务。
Additionally, we will present both GAP and non-GAP financial measures on today's call. These non-GAP measures are not intended to be considered in isolation from a substitute for or superior to our GAP results. And we encourage you to consider all measures when analyzing our performance.
此外，在今天的通话中，我们将提供GAP和非GAP金融度量。这些非GAP措施不旨在作为我们GAP结果的替代品，也不比它更优。我们鼓励您在分析我们的业绩时考虑所有度量指标。
And now I will turn it over to Luis. Thank you, Debbie. And welcome everyone. I'm pleased to report that we finished 2022 with a record quarter, achieving our highest ever number of DAUs and subscribers. We ended Q4 with 16.3 million DAUs, which is 62% year-over-year growth. And we ended 2022 with 4.2 million paying subscribers, which is 67% year-over-year growth. These metrics led 2022 to be our best year ever in terms of bookings and revenue, which grew 46 and 47% respectively. It was a fantastic year.
现在我将把话题交给路易斯。谢谢你，黛比。欢迎大家。我很高兴地报告，我们以创纪录的季度收官2022年，达到了最高的DAUs和订阅用户数量。我们在第四季度结束时拥有1630万DAUs，同比增长了62%。同时，我们在2022年结束时拥有420万付费订户，同比增长了67%。这些指标使2022年成为我们有史以来预订量和收入最好的一年，预订量和收入分别增长了46%和47%。这是一个美好的年份。
Our DAU to MAU ratio, which is an indicator of user engagement, improved to 27% this past quarter, up from about 24% a year before. We have also seen the number of learners with long streaks grow immensely. To remind you, a streak is the number of consecutive days that a user learns with our app. This mechanic has proven to be an efficient tool for encouraging engagement and helping us grow DAUs. 63% of our DAUs now have a streak of 7 days or greater, which is up from 53% last year. What's even more impressive is that we now have over 3 million DAUs with a streak of over one year. That means that more than 3 million people use Duolingo every single day for the last year or longer. It's also impressive that it took us 8 years to reach 1 million DAUs with a year long streak and only 21 months to get from 1 to 3 million. This is one example of the compounding effect of our product improvements.
我们的DAU与MAU比率是用户参与度的一个指标，过去的季度它提高到了27%，比一年前的约24%有所改善。我们也看到了拥有长期连续学习天数的学习者数量大幅增长。提醒一下，连续天数指的是用户使用我们的应用进行学习的连续天数。这个机制被证明是一种有效的促进用户参与度和帮助我们增加DAU的工具。我们的DAU中，63%现在有7天或更长连续学习天数的记录，这比去年的53%有所提高。更令人瞩目的是，我们现在拥有超过300万DAU的记录超过一年以上。这意味着，在过去一年或更长时间内，超过300万人每天都在使用Duolingo。同样令人瞩目的是，我们用了8年时间才达到100万DAU的记录，却只用了21个月就从100万走向了300万。这是我们产品改进的复合效应的一个例子。
Our user growth was strong in every region of the world. We also have users of nearly all ages of all socioeconomic statuses and who have a variety of motivations to learn, including work, school, and travel. The result is a diversified business that has been largely uncorrelated with macro and geographic trends.
我们的用户在世界各地的增长都非常强劲。我们拥有几乎各个年龄段的用户，各种社会经济地位的用户，以及各种学习动机的用户，包括工作、学校和旅游等。这使得我们的业务非常多元化，并且与宏观和地理趋势大多没有关联。
Our investments in monetization have also shown the power of compounding. Over the past 2 years we've seen conversion increase across nearly all cohorts. Users who are new to the app have converted more readily to our paid subscription and users who have been on the app for longer periods like multiple years have also seen an increase in their conversion rates from free to paid.
我们在变现方面的投资也展示了复利的威力。在过去的两年中，我们看到几乎所有用户群体的转换率都有所增加。对于新用户来说，更容易转化为我们的付费订阅，而那些已经使用应用程序多年的用户也看到了从免费到付费的转化率增加。
And now I'd like to discuss what you should expect from us this year. In a lot of ways, we expect 2023 to look similar to 2022. We expect users and bookings to grow nicely. We still have a massive $60 billion addressable market that we have only barely penetrated and we have strong organic growth on our side. And I want to remind you that currently our subscribers make up about 8% of our monthly active users, so we have plenty of room to further monetize our current user base.
现在我想谈一谈我们今年会带给您什么。在很多方面，我们预计2023年将与2022年相似。我们预计用户和订单将有良好增长。我们仍有一个价值600亿美元的巨大可寻址市场，我们才刚刚开拓，而且我们有强劲的有机增长。我想提醒您，目前我们的订阅用户仅占我们月活跃用户的8％，因此我们有很多空间进一步实现当前用户基础的货币化。
We also have an attractive opportunity to increase bookings from Alacard in our purchases like we did in 2022. But I do want to point out again that you should not expect any bookings from our math or literacy apps this year. As to where we'll invest the majority of our engineers, designers and product managers will continue to build on the success we've had in growth, efficacy and monetization. That means they will continue to run experiments to increase DA use and engagement, improve how we teach and optimize how we convert free users to paid.
我们还有一个极具吸引力的机会，可以像2022年那样增加Alacard的预订量。但我想再次指出，您不应该期望今年从我们的数学或识字应用程序中有任何预订量。关于我们将投资大部分的工程师、设计师和产品经理的方向，将继续在增长、有效性和货币化方面构建我们已经取得的成功。这意味着他们将继续进行实验，以增加DA的使用和参与度，改善我们的教学方式，以及优化如何将免费用户转化为付费用户。
And in our shareholder letter, I discussed the two additional areas we're focused on in 2023. The first is generative AI, which will power a higher tier dual-ingle max subscription, as well as help us reduce content creation cost. And the second is improving how we teach and monetize English learners. I'd like to emphasize that we are excited about these initiatives, but they are still in the early stages.
在我们的股东信中，我讨论了我们在2023年关注的两个额外领域。第一个是生成式人工智能，将为高级双语最大订阅提供动力，同时帮助我们降低内容创造成本。第二个是改善我们如何教授和盈利英语学习者。我想强调的是，我们对这些创举感到兴奋，但它们仍处于早期阶段。
And I also want to touch on profitability. Coming off a strong 2022, we are well positioned to grow users and bookings rapidly, while also delivering higher profitability. We plan to continue to compound the returns we've seen from our past R&D investments, so we don't plan to hire as many people as we did last year. Just to remind you, we've never gone nuts with hiring, and in fact we've grown revenue at about twice the rate of headcount in the past four years. This year, we plan to show operating leverage across all costs, R&D, sales and marketing and G&A. Given those strengths, we're guiding to a 10-12% adjusted EBITDA margin for the year, up from about 4% in 2022.
我还想谈一下盈利能力。在经历了2022年的强劲增长后，我们已经处于良好的位置，可以快速增长用户量和订单量，同时实现更高的盈利能力。我们计划继续复合过去研发投资带来的收益，因此我们不打算像去年那样雇佣太多人。提醒一下，我们从来没有在招聘方面太疯狂，事实上，在过去四年中，我们的收入增长速度大约是人员数量的两倍。今年，我们计划在研发、销售和市场以及总务方面展现出经营杠杆效应。考虑到这些优势，我们预计全年调整后的EBITDA利润率为10-12％，而2022年约为4％。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Matt to talk more about our financial outlook. Thanks, Louise. To quickly recap the highlights of our impressive Q4 and full year 2022 results. In the fourth quarter, we delivered 39% bookings growth year every year, which was about 46% on a constant currency basis. We saw 42% revenue growth year every year, which was 47% on a constant currency basis. We had a net loss of 13.9 million compared to a net loss of 17.5 million in the year ago quarter. We posted our highest quarterly adjusted EBITDA, the $5 million, which was a 5% adjusted EBITDA margin. And we had a free cash flow margin of about 11%.
接下来我将把话题转给Matt，让他更详细地讲解我们的财务前景。感谢，Louise。简要总结一下我们令人印象深刻的2022年第四季度和全年业绩亮点。在第四季度，我们同比增长39％的预订量，按恒定汇率计算约为46％。我们看到同比增长了42％的收入，按恒定汇率计算为47％。我们的净亏损为1390万美元，而去年同期为1750万美元。我们发布了我们历史上最高的季度调整后的EBITDA为500万美元，这是5％的调整后的EBITDA利润率。我们的自由现金流利润率约为11％。
For the four year, we delivered 46% bookings growth year every year, which was about 52% on a constant currency basis. We saw 47% revenue growth, which was about 51% in constant currency. We had a net loss of 59.6 million compared to a net loss of 60.1 million last year. We saw a just EBITDA positive 15.5 million compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of 1 million last year. And we had a free cash flow margin of about 12.5%.
过去四年来，我们实现了46%的预订增长，这是每年的增长率，按照恒定货币比率计算，大约为52%。我们实现了47%的营收增长，按照恒定货币比率计算，大约为51%。我们的净亏损为59.6万美元，相比去年净亏损60.1万美元有所下降。我们实现了净调整后EBITDA为正15.5万美元，相比去年净调整后EBITDA亏损100万美元有所上升。我们的自由现金流利润率约为12.5%。
In 2023, we expect to continue delivering strong bookings growth. And we will do so while making progress towards our long-term profitability goal of an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30 to 35%. For the four year 2023, we are guiding to 532 million total bookings, 486 to 498 million dollars in revenue, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10 to 12%, which translates to about a 32% incremental margin at the midpoint.
2023年，我们预计继续实现强劲的预订增长。我们将在这个过程中实现向长期盈利目标的进展，即实现30%至35%的调整后EBITDA利润率。对于2023年至2026年的四年期间，我们预计总预订金额将达到5.32亿美元，收入将达到4.86亿至4.98亿美元，调整后的EBITDA利润率将达到10%至12%，这相当于在中点上约为32%的增量利润率。
And for Q1 2023, we are guiding to 127.5 to 130.5 million total bookings, 111 to 114 million dollars in revenue, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9 to 10%. Our guidance assumes current prevailing foreign exchange rates. As a reminder, roughly half of our revenue comes from outside the US, so every 1% increase or decrease in the value of the dollar versus our basket of currencies has about a 2 million dollar headwind or tailwind respectively on full year total bookings.
到2023年第一季度，我们的指导预期为总预订量为127.5至130.5万，收入为1.11亿至1.14亿美元，调整后的EBITDA利润率为9%至10%。我们的指导预期假设外汇现行汇率。提醒一下，我们大约一半的收入来自美国以外的地区，因此，美元对我们的货币篮子汇率的每增加或减少1％，将分别对全年总预订量有200万美元的顺风或逆风效应。
At the prevailing exchange rates, we've used our guidance. Foreign exchange is expected to be a 3 percentage point headwind to Q1 2023 year-over-year bookings growth. In terms of quarterly cadence of our bookings for the remainder of the year, we expect our year-over-year growth for total bookings in Q2 to be about the same as Q1. We expect Q3 year-over-year growth rate to be slightly higher, and we expect Q4 to be our biggest quarter in terms of dollar bookings. Given our outperformance in Q4 of this year, it will be a slightly lower growth rate.
根据当前的汇率，我们已经使用了我们的指导。预计外汇将对2023年第一季度的年度订单增长率造成3个百分点的制约。在今年剩余的季度预订方面，我们预计第二季度总预订数的年度增长率与第一季度相同。我们预计第三季度年度增长率略高于前两个季度，而我们预计第四季度是我们在预订金额方面最大的季度。考虑到我们在今年第四季度的超预期表现，增长率将会稍低。
As to pricing in 2022, we lowered pricing prices in several countries to get our prices more in line with each country's GDP per capita. This initiative and our intentional mix shift from monthly to annual plans was to increase the overall LTV of our platform. And that drove down subscription revenue per paid sub. But we're done for the most part with lowering prices globally, and in fact, based on strong conversion trends, we believe we have the opportunity to raise prices in some places and are experimenting with pricing as we speak.
关于2022年的价格，我们已经在一些国家降低了价格，以使我们的价格更符合每个国家的人均GDP。此举旨在通过将订阅计划从月度转为年度，提高我们平台的整体寿命价值。然而，这也导致每位付费用户的订阅收入下降了。但是，我们已经全球降低价格的部分已经完成，事实上基于我们强大的转化趋势，我们相信我们有机会在某些地方提高价格，目前正在试验价格策略。
We have not included any material amount of bookings or revenue from dual-ingo max and our guidance, since we've only just started testing it, but we'll provide you with an update when we report Q1 results. I'd like to emphasize that we are focused on managing the business so that we achieve our full-year adjust EBITDA margin of 10 to 12%. We'll be making spending decisions throughout the year, based on our revenue and gross margin trends, to ensure that we are in this range for the full-year.
我们还没有包括双重ingo max预订或收入的任何实质性数量以及我们的指导，因为我们才刚刚开始测试，但我们会在我们报告第一季度成果时向您提供更新。我想强调的是，我们专注于管理业务，以实现我们全年调整后的EBITDA利润率为10%至12%。我们将根据我们的收入和毛利趋势在全年内做出支出决策，以确保我们在此范围内。
Also, to remind you, given the seasonality of our revenue, our Q2 and Q3 margins will be slightly lower than Q1 and Q4 will be higher. We will continue to run the business with discipline and prunely manage our expenses. Starting in Q1, we expect to see meaningful leverage in total non-gap op-ex compared to the fourth quarter of last year. And in 2023, we expect to achieve about seven and nine percentage points of operating leverage in total non-gap op-ex.
另外需要提醒您的是，考虑到我们的营收具有季节性，我们的Q2和Q3的利润率将略低于Q1，而Q4将会更高。我们将继续以纪律严明的方式运营业务，并精简管理开支。从Q1开始，我们预计在总体非GAAP操作费用中会出现重要的杠杆效应，相较去年第四季度会有所提高。在2023年，我们预计总体非GAAP操作费用将实现大约7至9个百分点的运营杠杆效应。
For both periods, the improvement is mostly in sales and marketing in GNA into a lesser extent in R&D. We ended the year with approximately 48 million fully diluted shares outstanding using the year-end closing price. In 2023, we expect to end the year with about 2% dilution from equity issue to employees, which is less than the roughly 3% dilution we had in 22. And with that, I'll turn it back to Luis.
在这两个时期，我们的进步主要在销售和市场推广方面，对研发的影响较小。我们使用年末的收盘价，持有大约4800万完全稀释的股份。在2023年，我们预计员工权益发行将使每股稀释2%，低于22年的大约3%。现在我将把话题转回给Luis。
Thank you, Matt. Before we get into Q&A, I'd like to thank our very talented team of DOs who continue to find new ways to innovate and delight our learners. And now we would be happy to take your questions. I'm going to turn it back to Debbie to manage the queue. And here we go.
谢谢你，Matt。在我们进行问答之前，我想感谢我们非常有才华的DO团队，他们继续找到创新和让我们的学习者感到愉悦的新方式。现在我们会很高兴回答你们的问题。我要把话题交给Debbie来管理等待队列。我们开始吧。
Okay, thanks Luis. And as I mentioned earlier, if you have a question, you can just use the raise hand feature. And the first question comes from Ralph Shackert of William Blair. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question.
好的，谢谢Luis。正如我之前提到的，如果您有问题，您可以使用举手功能。第一个问题来自威廉·布莱尔公司的Ralph Shackert。下午好。感谢您回答问题。
First question, the shareholder letter, I think you called it a, quote, super end of 2022. I think that may incorporate some of the beginning of the year campaign that you you run the track new users. Just curious what drove the really strong performance in the year end. And then how does your New Year's campaign compare to expectations that I haven't followed?
第一个问题是关于股东信的，我记得你称其为“2022年超级年终”。我认为这可能包括了你们在年初推出的新用户跟踪活动。只是好奇年末强劲表现的驱动因素是什么？然后你们的新年活动与我没有关注的预期相比如何？
翻译：请问关于股东信，您称之为“2022年超级年终”的部分，是否包括了年初推出的新用户跟踪活动？我想知道是什么驱动了去年年末的强劲表现？另外，您的新年活动与预期相比如何？
Thank you. This is a great question. So yes, we had a great Q4, great year end. And there's two main reasons. The first one is just a compounding product improvements. I mean, we've just been getting better and better at making our products stickier and attracting more users. We have a very high performing growth team that does that. So that's one thing. And then another one is some of our marketing campaigns were just did really well. A good example of that was a year in review campaign where, you know, towards around December 14 or so or December 10th to December 14th. And then all the users get a summary of what they, you know, what they did throughout the whole year. And they're expected to go out well, they're encouraged to share it.
谢谢你，这是个很好的问题。我们确实度过了一个很棒的Q4季度和年终。主要原因有两个。第一个是由于我们的产品不断得到改进，越来越能吸引更多的用户使用。我们拥有一支高效的增长团队为此而努力。这是一个方面。另一个原因是我们的营销活动做得非常出色。其中一个很好的例子是年度回顾活动，在12月14日左右的时间里，所有用户都会收到一份他们整年做了什么的总结，他们被鼓励分享这些内容。
We got a lot of shares millions and millions of shares. And we know we hit, you know, top trending topics on Twitter and stuff like that by just having people share their, their dual and go stats over several days. So stuff like that really helped us do the performance in terms of the New Year's campaign. And we started just for reference, we start a New Year's campaign on December 28th, usually every year. And it goes all the way to January. So for this, you know, for this quarter, this about, you know, three, three days, ish of campaign. And, you know, they perform better than we expected. And the reason for that out performance just has to do with the fact that every year we take the learnings from the previous year of the campaign.
我们得到了很多股票，数以百万计的股票。我们知道，仅仅通过让人们分享他们的双双走过数据，我们就在Twitter等社交媒体上成为了热门话题。像这样的事情真的帮助我们在新年活动中表现得更好。我们通常在每年的12月28日开始新年活动，一直持续到1月份。在这个季度，我们的新年活动持续了大约三天左右，表现比我们预期的要好。这背后的原因只是我们每年从前一年的活动中学到的经验教训。
And we just get a little better. So every year we run a few A B tests to try to make the campaign more effective. And we take those learnings for the next year. So that, that worked out pretty well for us. Right. Thanks, Luis. Maybe just a quick follow up. Just in terms of Dows, I think you reaccelerate for six consecutive quarters, which is pretty tough to do. But just maybe some color, what's driving the strong acceleration and growth. And thinking the prepare remarks you talked about sort of broad base, but were there any sort of one or two regions that's stronger growth than others. Thank you.
我们只是变得更好一些。因此，每年我们进行几项A/B测试，试图使活动更加有效。并且我们从中吸取经验教训，为下一年做好准备。因此，这对我们来说相当不错。好的，谢谢，路易斯。也许只是一个快速的追问。就Dows而言，我想你们连续六个季度进行了重新加速，这相当困难。但可能是一些颜色，是什么推动了强大的加速和增长。在您准备的讲话中，您谈到了广泛的基础，但是是否有一两个地区的增长比其他地区更强劲。谢谢。
Yeah, it's a great question too. So in terms of regions, it really is growing in every single region in the world. If you want to know stronger regions, the US is particularly strong, Asia, especially particularly strong in Western Europe is particularly strong in terms of growing DAUs. And in terms of why it is, I mean, it's again, the same two reasons. It is a continuous product, continuous product improvements that just compound over time. The product is just better and stickier. And then we just get better and better at figuring out what strikes a chord with marketing.
是的，这是一个非常棒的问题。就各个地区而言，世界上每个地区的增长都非常显著。如果你想知道更强的地区，美国特别强劲，亚洲和西欧在增长活跃用户（DAU）方面尤其强劲。至于为什么呢，这又是同样的两个原因。我们不断改进产品，这些改进会随着时间的推移不断累积，使产品更好、更具粘性。我们也越来越擅长找到成功营销的要素。
So things like our social media campaigns, like our TikTok campaigns and our Twitter campaigns. And also some of the influencer work that we do. And some of the stuff is stuff we don't even do. For example, we just saw this video at the beginning of this of this call that these are these are entirely organic videos that other people make is almost every single day. I don't know if it is a fact that every single day in the world, but almost every single day there is an organic video that goes viral that mentions to a link.
我们做一些社交媒体活动，比如我们的TikTok活动和Twitter活动以及我们的博主合作项目。有时候我们甚至会接触到我们自己没有参与过的事情。比如，在我们通话初期，我们看到了一个视屏，这些视频完全来自他人创作的，几乎每天都有这样的视频在全球流传。虽然我不确定每一天都有，但是基本上每天都会出现一些有组织或者没有组织的视频，并且视频会提到链接。
So all of that just keeps getting you know keeps growing our users. Thanks, waste. Appreciate it. Thanks, Ralph. And the next question comes from Justin Patterson of Keybank.
因此，所有这些都不断地增加我们的用户数。感谢你，Waste。非常感谢，Ralph。下一个问题来自Keybank的Justin Patterson。
Great. Thank you very much. Luis recently there is a really interesting post from the duo link a blog about just using data science, optimize DAUs. I think current user retention rate was that the metric you've been optimizing the past few years. I would love to hear more about just how you're using a lot of these top down statistical models to really drive DAU growth, link the product team together. And then you know now that you've gone pretty far with the current metric how you're thinking about tailoring that to individual cohorts. So more of a bottoms up approach to take advantage of things like say Gen Z having much shorter attention spans and making sure they're still having healthy engagement. Thank you.
非常好，非常感谢。路易斯，最近Duo Link的一个博客发表了一篇非常有趣的文章，介绍如何仅使用数据科学优化DAU。我认为目前您一直在优化的是用户保留率指标。我很想听听您如何使用许多这些自上而下的统计模型来真正推动DAU的增长，将产品团队联系在一起。而且，现在您已经在当前指标上取得了很大进展，您如何考虑将其针对个别群体进行定制。因此，我们需要采取更加底层的方法，利用像Gen Z这样的生命周期更短的群体，确保他们仍然有健康的参与。感谢您。
So I'm glad you read that blog post. We're very proud of our growth model. You know, over the years we've just gotten significantly more sophisticated at analyzing our user base and making changes that that improve certain cohorts. In this in this post we we mentioned what has been the I would say the single most important metric for this company over the last several years, which is called something we call Kerr or current user retention rate. But that is it is the rate of people that if they were here today and they were here over the last one other time, at least over the last seven days, what is the probability they're going to come back tomorrow.
很高兴你看了这篇博客文章。我们对自己的增长模型感到非常自豪。你知道，多年来，我们对分析用户基础和提高某些群体的改变变得越来越精细。在这篇文章中，我们提到了在过去几年中，对这家公司最重要的指标之一，即我们称之为Kerr或当前用户保留率的指标。该指标衡量的是如果某个人今天和过去的七天中至少有一次访问，那么他们会在明天回来的概率是多少。
That's current user retention rate. That number is around 80% right now and we've increased it you know over the last you know two, three years we've increased that number from about 65% to about 80% and every one percent increase of Kerr increase our DAU's by a lot. And so you know that model has been you know really helped us and we keep getting more and more sophisticated you are right we're starting to you know this was a model you know at first when you're when you're just you know before this growth model we would just treat all our users in one cohort.
这是当前的用户留存率。这个数字目前大约是80%，在过去的两三年中，我们已经将该项数据从约65%提高到了80%左右。每增加1%的留存率就会大幅提升我们的DAU。所以说，这个模型真的帮助了我们，并且我们正在变得越来越复杂。一开始我们只是把所有的用户作为一个整体对待，现在我们正在开始更加细分。
Then we started getting more sophisticated and we treat kind of new user current users etc now we're getting even more sophisticated than that. So I don't think we have a specific thing for Gen Z that we do but we are you know relatedly we are making our sessions shorter and shorter because you know like you said they have a shorter and shorter attention spans. Thank you. Great and next question comes from Andrew Boone of JMP.
然后我们开始变得更加复杂，我们对待新用户、现有用户等等，现在我们甚至比那还要更复杂。所以我认为我们没有针对Z世代特别做的事情，但是我们正在逐渐缩短我们的会话时间，因为正像你所说，他们的注意力越来越短。谢谢。接下来的问题来自JMP的Andrew Boone。
Thanks for taking my questions can we start off with just any learnings from in app purchases I saw that it doubled this last quarter you talk about what successes are there and then how we think about that for 2023 and then secondly on profitability. Matt talked about real contribution margin kind of especially in the back half this year is there any reason to think that that steps down as we think about kind of a three year plan or something beyond this upcoming year thanks so much.
感谢您回答我的问题。我们可以从应用程序购买中获得的任何经验谈起，我看到它在最近一个季度翻了一倍。您可以谈谈有什么成功经验，以及我们如何考虑到2023年。其次，关于盈利能力的问题。Matt谈到了真实贡献利润，尤其是在今年下半年，有没有理由认为，在考虑未来三年计划或本年度之后，这种利润会下降呢？非常感谢。
I can take the IP question man and then you can take the next one so for for in-app purchases yeah we have a very high performing team behind this that is that is just making in-app purchases you know more and more prominent more and more successful in the app as you saw they've been growing very rapidly we expect them to continue growing rapidly this year. And in terms of learnings you know the the main way we do in-app purchases by the way is by selling gems so there's this in-app currency called gems that you can either earn by doing stuff on you know on the app or you can also buy them.
我可以处理IP问题的那位，接着你可以处理下一个问题，关于应用内购买，是的，我们有一个非常高效的团队在背后支持，他们正在不断地让应用内购买变得更加突出、更加成功，正如您所看到的，它们增长非常迅速，我们预计它们会在今年继续迅速增长。至于经验教训，我们主要是通过销售宝石来进行应用内购买，这里有一种应用内货币叫做“宝石”，你可以通过在应用上做任务获取，也可以用钱购买。
And then you can use gems to buy other stuff you know kind of power ups in the app one of the main power ups that we use in the app is these timer boosts that help for certain time lessons so we have these. You know most lessons on doing or not timed but there are some lessons that you can do some practice lessons that are timed and the idea is that if you're not very fast you run out of time where you can buy these timer boosts with gems and there's you know those time your boosts get a lot of people to spend on may not purchases. This is the type of stuff you're going to get to see us do so in general for us for in-app purchases we're not going to be selling content within a purchases but mainly we're going to be selling gamification things that people really like and so far that strategy has been working pretty well.
然后你可以使用宝石购买其他东西，可以看作是应用程序中的某种提升能力。我们应用程序中的主要升级能力是这些定时器提升，它们有助于某些时间段的课程。我们拥有的大多数课程都没有时间限制，但有些课程是计时的，如果你不够快，时间就会用完，你可以用宝石购买这些定时器提升，这些提升吸引了很多人消费。这就是我们将要做的事情，我们的应用内购买中，我们不会出售内容，而是主要出售人们真正喜欢的游戏化物品，目前这种策略已经取得了不错的成效。
Great and then on profitability. Andrew the profitability increased in 2022 by about 450 basis points from 2021 on an adjusted you but basis which was good progress you know towards our long term profitability goal of that 30 to 35% you know this year we're guiding to 600 to 800 basis point improvement over that. So as we look out you know kind of in the into the longer term our goal hasn't changed we want to be at a 30 to 35% adjusted but the margin and between last year and we're guiding to this year we think we're showing you know the right progress towards that goal.
安德鲁讲到利润率的问题。2022年，我们的调整后利润率比2021年增长了约450个基点，这对于我们长期的30%-35%的利润目标是一个很好的进展。今年，我们的指导是要在这个基础上再提高600至800个基点。因此，我们的目标在长期内并没有改变，我们仍希望实现30%-35%的调整后利润率。去年和今年的指导之间的差距，我们认为我们正在朝着这个目标取得正确的进展。
Thank you. Thanks and then the next question comes from Ryan McDonald of need him. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on a strong close to the year. Louis so start with you on on the dual English test there was recently a a ban in China from the government on online degrees that a Chinese citizen essentially is taking a fully online degree from an international university. So it's not a recognizing that degree and it seems like this is going to start creating sort of a shift in a reflection point and more Chinese learners looking to go in person overseas. You know just curious if you've seen any impacts of this those far on sort of applications or signups for the the dual English test and how you think or what your expectations for that are in the 2020 year.
谢谢。接下来的问题来自Need Him的Ryan McDonald。感谢您回答我的问题，恭喜公司年末表现良好。刘总，我想先问你针对双语英语考试，在中国政府最近针对在线学位的禁令中，中国公民不能获得来自国外大学的完全在线学位，因此政府不承认该学位，看起来这将会引起对中国学生开始更多的反思和微观变化，他们会更倾向于到海外亲身学习。我想知道您是否已经看到了这个政策对双语英语考试的影响，比如申请或者注册情况？您对2020年的预期是什么？
Thank you for the question we we have not seen any impact based on this and I think there's there's many reasons I mean for one. Yes China is a relatively large chunk of the the dual English test test takers but we really have test takers are all over the world. The other thing is the reasons for taking the tests are very varied you know some of them is people who are applying for international. Undergraduate admissions there's also graduate admissions there's transnational education there's there's all kinds of different pockets and you know maybe one pocket you know has has some some sort of policy implications to it but in general the pockets are pretty healthy. That's that's kind of one thing the other thing is we are still you know we're not the the leader in this market we are the in the we're coming into this market with an online test and it is a market that usually has had all these offline tests. Given that we are still in the you know in the kind of growth phase of this we don't you know it doesn't affect us too much when there's something you know that changes the full volume of it because we're we're coming in. You know with with whatever percentage of tests we have which is you know significantly on their 25% it's we're still growing quite a bit and pretty fast so this is not something that we're that we're seeing yet.
谢谢您的问题，至今我们还没有看到任何基于这个问题的影响，我认为原因有很多。首先，中国是托福考生的相对较大比例，但我们的考生遍布全球。其次，考试的原因也非常多样化，有人是为了国际本科招生，也有人是为了研究生招生，还有跨国教育等等不同领域。虽然其中可能有一些领域会有政策影响，但总的来说，这些领域都相当健康。这是一方面。另一方面，我们在这个市场还不是领导者，我们进入这个市场是通过在线考试，而这个市场通常是离线考试。鉴于我们仍处于这个市场的增长阶段，所以即使有什么变化，对我们也影响不大，因为我们在进步中。我们目前拥有的测试比例仍然相对较小，只有25％，所以我们的增长速度非常快，目前还没有看到任何影响。
That's all we appreciate it and then maybe as a follow up you talked a lot about generative AI use of that and I'm very curious around the content creation you mentioned the increased focus on on sort of more advanced English content for nine English speakers or basic English speakers. How quickly do you think that the generative AI can compress your content creation timeline and how do you manage for quality in that and then from that you know are you assuming any within your your the leverage you know that you're showing this year on the profit margin side are you assuming any leverage from that content creation from genitive right thanks.
这句话的意思是，我们非常感激你的回答。接下来我们想深入探讨一下生成式人工智能在内容创作方面的应用，特别是针对英语为非母语者的高级或基础英语内容的增加焦点。您认为生成式人工智能能多快地压缩您的内容创作时间，您如何确保质量，并且，您是否假设您今年的利润率中包含了从生成式人工智能中获得的杠杆作用，感谢您的回答。
Yeah thank you for the question so we're very excited about generative AI and just to put things into context you know a dual angle we've always lean in into AI from the beginning I mean a lot of our products are built based on AI etc over the last couple years generative AI has has become significantly better and we're definitely going to lean into this as well.
谢谢你的问题，我们非常期待生成式人工智能。从另一个角度来看，我们一直从开始就倾向于使用人工智能。我们的许多产品都是基于人工智能构建的。在过去的几年中，生成式人工智能变得越来越好，我们也一定会加强这方面的发展。
Now you mentioned content creation that's one of the places where we think that that it can help us a lot and to speak things up quite a bit it's a bit early for me to give you a precise estimate of how much you can speed it up but we are certain I mean it's already happening we're already speaking things up and also lowering costs. One of the places where we're using that is to be able to create much more English learning content so you'll see us create a lot more that in terms of quality assurance we're still going to have humans go over it but the time frame you know it used to be the case that all of this was almost entirely generated by humans by now it's just has to be reviewed by humans and it's a lot quicker to review than to generate.
现在你提到了内容创作，这是一个我们认为可以帮助我们很多的地方，说实话，目前还有点早，我不能给你一个准确的估计，能快多少，但我们肯定，我是说，这已经在 happening，我们已经在加快进度并降低成本了。我们使用这种技术的一个方向是能够创作出更多的英语学习内容，因此你会看到我们创建更多这种内容，并且在质量保证方面，我们仍然需要人类审核，但时间表方面，过去所有这些都几乎完全由人类生成，现在只需要被人类审核，而审核的速度比生成的速度快得多。
So in terms of time frame we're going to get a massive increase in that and I assume it's the same for cost. So yes this is something we're very excited about and you know the other thing I should mention about generative AI so content creation is one of them and we're going to definitely use that but it also is going to help us just create better experiences to our users. Kind of more online conversational practice that we're going to be able to do and that's the type of stuff that we're putting into our new higher tier subscription do a link of max.
就时间框架而言，我们将会大幅提高内容生成的能力，成本也会相应上升。所以，这是我们非常期待的事情，应该会对我们的用户体验产生积极影响。我们将会利用生成式人工智能来创造更好的在线对话实践，并将其纳入我们新的更高级的订购服务中。
So this is something we're very excited about as a company where we you know we've partnered with open AI and and we're going to be working very hard on this. Yeah and Ryan Luis answered the question for the guide I mean we only included in the guide things we have direct line of sight into it's not you know generative as so new we don't have a ton of line of sight into direct savings yet but as we said you know over time that's probably the way to bet.
这是我们作为公司非常兴奋的事情，我们与开放AI合作，并且我们将会非常努力地工作。是的，Ryan Luis回答了指南的问题，我是说我们只包含了我们直接了解的事情，而不是一些全新的生成性的东西，我们对直接节省的情况还没有很清晰的了解，但就像我们所说的，随着时间的推移，这可能是最好的方式。
Thanks Ryan and the next question comes from Aaron Kessler of Raymond James. Thank you a couple questions made from Matt on the peak conversion rate was very strong key for can you talk about that was that family plans a part of that and then how should we think about making peak conversion in 2023. And then maybe any updates and even tests maybe kind of human tutoring as well as any kind of thoughts on that direction as well, especially as many of the relates to doing on max how you talk about thinking about integrating that as well.
谢谢，Ryan。接下来的问题来自雷蒙德·詹姆斯公司的Aaron Kessler。感谢您。关于Matt提出的峰值转化率的问题，他问到与家庭计划有关吗？另外，我们应该如何考虑在2023年实现峰值转化率呢？还有，您有关于人类辅导以及有关这方面的想法和最新的测试更新吗？特别是关于如何将其与Max整合，您有什么想法吗？请简单谈谈您的想法。
So I'll let Luis in answer that last part for the. Hair penetration you know we had mentioned I think throughout most of last year we expected a 1 to 2% increase each quarter year over year in that metric and that's coming from all the things that Luis has described before that all the product improvements the compound over time. And then we're going to make our free to pay conversion go up in general it wasn't any one particular item like family plan or this or that it was all them compounding over time.
那最后一个问题我会让Luis来回答，关于头发穿透率。去年我们一直预计这个指标每个季度同比增长1到2%，这得益于Luis之前所述的所有产品改进，随着时间推移而不断堆积起来。同时我们也将提高免费用户的付费转化率，这并不是一个特定的问题如家庭计划或其他，而是所有项逐渐累积的结果。
I think going forward as we mentioned on I think it was either the Q two or Q three call last year. Given the growth in MAU so that the nominator of that number is just growing really, really nicely. And the retention trends we would expect it to actually instead of adding one or two points every quarter year of year be closer to you know one this year. Just because again that denominators growing really nicely so it will ultimately turn into subscribers over time. But in the short term it'll be about you know one point.
我认为如我们在去年第二或第三季度通话中提到的那样，往后走。考虑到MAU的增长，因此该数字的分子正在以非常良好的方式增长。鉴于留存趋势，我们预计每个季度或每年增加一两个百分点，实际上应该接近于今年的一个百分点。只是因为分母增长得非常好，因此最终会转化为订阅者。但在短期内，它将是一个点。
And then we want to talk about max and tutors. Yeah and human tutoring I mean the first question was about human tutoring or the second question was about human tutoring. This is over the years we've waffled on human tutoring at first we launched a dual angle with no humans involved then we tried it we tried putting it in we tried. And over the last year we've made the the decision that I think is the right decision that we are not going to get into human tutoring at all we've tried it we are out.
然后，我们想谈谈最大值和导师。没错，我指的是第一个问题关于人工导师的问题，或者第二个问题。多年来，我们一直在犹豫是否要使用人工导师。刚开始时，我们发起了一个无人参与的双重角度，然后我们尝试过加入人工导师，但是在过去的一年里，我们已经做出了正确的决定，不再使用人工导师了，我们已经尝试过了，我们退出了。
And there's a number of reasons for that. There's nothing we it's not like we have anything against human tutors is just in on our end we are a technology company. And that's what we excel at. And in addition to that if you look at it you know human tutors are great but they're not getting any better they're just there. Whereas technology in particular AI and in particular a lot of the stuff coming from genitive AI is just getting better and better every year.
这其中有很多原因。我们并不是反对人类导师，只是我们是一家技术公司。这是我们擅长的领域。此外，如果你看看这个问题，人类导师的确很好，但他们的能力不会再有提升了，他们就那样了。而技术，特别是人工智能，尤其是从生成型人工智能领域涌现出来的许多技术，每年都在不断改善。
And we're not going to get any better than that. Much in the same way you know like 10 years ago we were told we could not teach a language with synthesized computerized voices. We bet on that even though 10 years ago synthesized computerized voices still sounded kind of robotic today they sound excellent. We feel the same with with AI that that you know in in five years so I don't know how five 10 years it we will be very happy that we'll have that on technology rather than.
我们无法得到比这更好的了。就像十年前我们被告知无法使用合成计算机音色来教授语言一样。我们仍然冒险尝试了，尽管十年前的合成计算机音色还听起来有些像机器人，但是今天它们听起来非常优秀。我们对人工智能也有同样的感受，你知道在五年或十年内，我们将非常高兴拥有这种技术，而不是没有。
And next question comes from Nat Schindler from Bank of America. Yes thank you. I actually want to just go a little deeper on some of the questions you have before really about how the users have changed. You saw dramatic acceleration in both. The users and paid subscribers over this year versus the prior year is there been a real change in the demographics of those. Is there anything substantially different about users this year than their word last year.
下一个问题来自美国银行的纳特·辛德勒。谢谢你。我想深入探讨一些之前你谈到的用户变化问题。你注意到在过去的一年里，用户和付费用户的数量迅速增加。这些人口群体是否有了真正的变化？今年的用户和去年有什么显著不同之处？
That's a great question. If there has been a small there's you know generally our user base is very wide. We have users from every single country in the world you know every single country in the world is represented. We have users from every single socioeconomic status from you know all ages as long as they know how to read so it's kind of from six years to about a hundred. We just really have users from all over the place and it's very wide user base. So it hasn't changed too much. The one thing we've noticed is it has gotten slightly ever so slightly younger. And that probably has to do with a lot of our prominence on social media like TikTok. But that's it so we haven't really noticed too much of a change.
这是一个很好的问题。如果有过变化的话，我们的用户群体通常比较广泛。我们有来自全世界每个国家的用户，每个国家都有我们的用户。我们的用户来自各个社会经济阶层，年龄范围从六岁到一百岁，只要他们会读。因此，我们的用户来源非常广泛。虽然我们在社交媒体平台上，如TikTok上的活跃度可能让我们的用户群体稍微年轻了一些，但总的来说，我们并没有注意到太大的变化。
And as those changes towards going slightly younger is that happened in both free users and paid. And I know that it's honest answers. I don't know. I know that it's free users is getting slightly younger. I don't know for paid. I maybe it may be. Yeah, I'd have to go back and double check that on on the paid. I think what we've seen on paid is that the conversion. Trans haven't really changed some of accelerated for example just overall conversion of. Kind of cohorts across the board has has increased over the course of last year.
这些变化向稍微年轻化的方向发展，同时在免费用户和付费用户中都出现了。我知道这是诚实的答案。我知道免费用户的年龄稍微变年轻了。至于付费用户，我不确定，但可能也是如此。是的，我需要回去再确认一下。我认为我们在付费用户方面看到的是转化率并没有真正改变，但例如在整个群体的转化率上，去年的某些方面加速了。
So folks who are new to the platform, you know, in the first couple of months. They converted more rapidly than in 2021. Folks have been on the platform for a long period of time they converted a little bit faster than they had in the past. We've always seen that people who use the app more convert more. You know that stayed the same or got a little bit better. So yeah, it was kind of a broad base just like our users grew around the world. You know in a pretty broad broad based way. It was the same trend on the free to pay conversion.
对于那些刚加入平台的人来说，就是头几个月，他们比2021年更快地进行转换。而那些已经长期使用这个平台的人，他们的转换速度比过去稍微快一些。我们一直看到，经常使用应用程序的人更容易进行转换。这个趋势保持不变或略有改善。因此，我们的用户在全球范围内以相当广泛的方式增长，而这与免费付费转换的趋势是一样的。
Thank you very much and once again very impressive. Thank you. Thanks, Nat. And next question comes from Mark Mahaney of Evercore. Two questions. You had this line in release about how the number of returning users is roughly the same as the number of brand new users. I would just have assumed that that was always been the case or you know it's been the case for a while. But is that something new that's happened because I get your point about how you know people will use it and then you know they'll either come back to it when they realize importance of learning a new language of there'll be another opportunity. Maybe they're traveling to a different country.
非常感谢，再次印象深刻。谢谢你，Nat。下一个问题来自Evercore的Mark Mahaney。有两个问题。你在新闻稿中提到的一句话是关于回归用户数量与全新用户数量大致相同的。我一直以为这种情况一直存在，或者说已经存在一段时间了。但这是最近发生的新事情吗？我理解你的意思是，人们会开始使用这个产品，然后当他们意识到学习一门新语言的重要性、或者只是因为另一个机会时，他们会再次回来使用它。比如他们会去别的国家旅行。
So is that a new trend or not? What's the so what out of that? And just real quickly do a math. That math product just where is that you still tweaking it is it far from being where you want it to be just talk about kind of adoption. How much interest you've really seen in that. Thanks.
这是一个新趋势吗？那对此有什么影响吗？再快速地进行一下数学计算。你的数学产品现在还需要调整吗？距离你想要的状态还有多远，直接谈谈采用情况。你真正看到了多少兴趣。谢谢。
I see for your first question. This is not a new thing. It's been a while since returning users are the same as new users. I'm going to assume at the very early of Dueling that was not the case. But it's been a while that it's been like that and and and you're right. You know it is rare for us to see a user that uses Dueling go goes away and never comes back. That is rare. Usually people may even go away for two years and then come back. It's just because because there's such such a little friction.
我理解您的第一个问题。这并不是一个新的现象。自从回归用户和新用户一样已经有一段时间了。我想在“Dueling”早期这不是这样的。但是现在已经有段时间了，并且你是对的。我们很少看到用户使用“Dueling”一去不回。这是罕见的。通常人们甚至会离开两年后回来。这仅仅是因为使用“Dueling”很容易。
So we see that and you know the reason we put that there is is mainly to to emphasize that. It is not right to think of our users as coming having turned and been gone forever. That is rare. It's more that they come they stay for a few months or something they may take a break for a couple of months and they come back or something. So something like that. In terms of math, we're very happy with the progress is growing rapidly.
所以我们可以看到，我们将这个放在那里的原因主要是为了强调。把我们的用户想象成一来就走，永远不回来是不正确的。这样的情况很少见。更多的是，他们来了几个月或者什么的，可能会休息几个月，然后再回来什么的。就是这样。在数学方面，我们对进展非常满意，增长迅速。
We're happy with that just to remind you of the plan. We are right now the goal is to grow our math product organically. For it to grow by itself once we get to a pretty decent number of users call it a million daily active users. I'm you know this is kind of you know it doesn't have to be exactly a million once we get there. We're going to say okay great. We have good product market fit. It is time to start monetizing. We're not there yet, but it is growing pretty nicely. And so we're happy with the results in terms of tweaking. Yes, we're working very hard on tweaking the app. We're adding a lot of the features that we know work well on the main Dueling go app to the to the math product.
我们愉快地确认一下计划。目前我们的目标是使数学产品有机地增长。一旦我们拥有足够的用户，比如每天一百万活跃用户，我们希望它能够自我增长。我知道这个数字不一定是一百万，但我们一旦到达那里，我们就会说好的，我们有良好的产品市场适配性了，现在是时候开始盈利了。虽然我们还没有到那个地步，但增长速度还是不错的，所以我们对调整结果感到满意。是的，我们正在努力调整应用程序，将一些在主要的Dueling go应用程序上表现良好的功能添加到数学产品中。
So improvements to the streak. You know we're thinking of adding things like leader boards better notifications. So a lot of the stuff that we've learned over the last 10 years on Dueling go. And that we have the code for we're starting to add to the math app to get it, you know, to have higher retention. We're also adding more content to it. You know one of the one of the things that happens with the math app right now is that people actually run out of content because. You know if you're very happy turns out we have some very heavy users that use the whole thing and then they kind of run out of content. So we're adding more content to it. So you'll see us over the next year. I just make the product better and better and because of that it'll continue growing.
我们正在改进连胜。我们考虑添加排行榜和更好的通知等功能，这些都是我们在 Dueling go 上最近十年学到的东西，现在我们将它们加入到数学应用程序中，以提高用户保留率。我们还会添加更多的内容，因为我们发现，目前很多用户用完了全部内容后就不再使用了。所以在未来一年内，我们将不断完善产品，增加更多的内容，保证其持续增长。
Okay, thank you Louise.
好的，谢谢你，路易丝。意思是对某人的感谢。
Next, Mark. Next question comes from Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs. Great, thank you. Maybe first question will be following up on something that was implied in marks. First question travels obviously been a big tailwind and the shift to services over goods has been a big tailwind in the macro economic environment. Can you talk a little bit about what you've seen with travel potentially as a catalyst for usage, both top of the funnel and bottom of the funnel as that's continued to build momentum and how maybe as result across border travel continuing to return.
接下来，马克。下一个问题来自高盛的埃里克·谢里丹。非常感谢。可能第一个问题是对马克所暗示的某个问题的追问。旅游明显是一个很大的助力，而从商品到服务的转变也是宏观经济环境中的一个重要助推因素。您能否谈一下有关旅游作为促进使用率的催化剂的情况，包括在漏斗的顶端和底端，以及随着跨境旅游的继续恢复，可能会带来的结果？
That could be a nice tailwind for the business going forward over 2023 and beyond. And then the second dynamic would be you talked a lot about virality and tick tock. Can you talk a little bit about where you are excited to experiment and think about marketing or building virality on platforms on either the content side or the distribution platform side, maybe even away from tick tock and how we should be thinking about that building in the years ahead. Thanks so much.
这将有助于我们未来在2023年及以后的业务中获得很好的增长。其次，你们谈了很多关于病毒性和TikTok的内容。你能谈一下你们对正在努力实验和思考营销或在内容方面或分发平台方面建立病毒性的一些领域的兴奋之处吗？也许甚至远离TikTok，如何考虑我们未来几年中建立这种病毒性。非常感谢。
Great, great question Eric.
太好了，太好了，Eric提出了一个非常好的问题。
Let's see, in terms of travel, we don't see in our metrics that more and more people are using dualingo for travel. We did see a very temporary dip in the height of COVID a couple of years ago that like a few are slightly fewer. Since then it's been about the same. And we just, you know, travel is interesting for a lot of people like us that are, you know, to be honest from the world wide perspective, pretty wealthy. I think travel is like a big motivation for using dualingo, but for a lot of our users, you know, they're using it to learn English or as a hobby or something. So we don't see these things that's like, oh my god, travel has opened up and therefore dual English exploding. That just we just haven't seen much of that.
让我们来看看旅游方面，从我们的指标来看，我们并没有看到越来越多的人使用 Duolingo 进行旅游。在 COVID 的高峰期前几年，我们确实看到了一个非常短暂的下降，略微少了一些人。此后情况基本上没什么变化。对于我们这样的人来说，旅游对很多人来说很有趣，我们老实说，从世界范围来看，我们还算是比较富有的人。我认为旅游是使用 Duolingo 的主要动力之一，但对于很多用户来说，他们使用它来学习英语或作为一种爱好等等。因此，我们并没有看到“哦，天啊，旅游业已经复苏，Duolingo 开始火爆起来了”的这种事情发生。我们没有看到这方面的大量变化。
We do ask when people sign up why they're using dualingo and some fraction tell us they're using it for travel. I don't know the number off the top of my head. I'm going to assume it's something like 15% tell us that is that they're using it for travel. But it's just not something that we, you know, that we look too much to.
当人们注册Duolingo时，我们会询问他们为什么要使用Duolingo，其中一部分人告诉我们他们是为了旅行而使用它。我不知道具体数量，但我觉得大概有15%的人告诉我们他们使用Duolingo是为了旅行。但旅行并不是我们特别关注的事情。
In terms of your second question about virality. So, you know, so far we have experimented with a few social media platforms to get our word out by the way. And this is mainly organic. I said, we don't we don't pay for this stuff. We just make really good content. TikTok has been really good for us. Not just TikTok in the US. We've actually localized our TikTok to, you know, Portuguese and Spanish and another language. So one of the things that we're excited about is a TikTok accounts in the other languages. They're actually growing really fast and it's actually amazing how, by the way, this is this amazing thing about Brazil. Anything you do with social in Brazil does well. And so as soon as we put, you know, TikTok in Portuguese, it just kind of went nuts. If you go see those videos, they're amazing. We just had dual dressed up as Wednesday from the Netflix show Wednesday. And it we, you know, we got, I don't know how many 10 million views or something. So we're excited about platforms like, like TikTok and actually also Twitter. We're doing pretty well in Twitter.
关于您第二个问题有关病毒性的问题。到目前为止，我们已经尝试了一些社交媒体平台来传播我们的信息。这主要是有机的，意思是我们不付费做这些。我们只是制作了非常好的内容。对于我们来说，TikTok非常有用。不仅仅是在美国，我们实际上本地化了我们的TikTok，包括葡萄牙语和西班牙语等其他语言。因此，我们很兴奋的是在其他语言中运营TikTok账户。它们实际上增长非常快，巴西是一个非常神奇的地方，因为您在社交媒体上做任何事情都会做得很好。因此，只要我们把TikTok放在葡萄牙语上，它就会像疯子一样传播。如果您去看这些视频，它们非常棒。我们刚才有在Netflix节目《周三》中打扮成周三的角色，获得了1千万次观看，我们对TikTok平台非常兴奋，还有Twitter，我们在Twitter上做得不错。
Now, when you ask about virality in general, another thing that we're doing is we're just adding a lot more things inside the product. It's not social media or anything inside the product to get more people to share things. And we now have a team behind it. It's a really good team too. And they are able to get a lot more people to share things.
现在，当你谈到普遍流行性时，我们正在产品中添加更多元素。这并不是通过社交媒体或其他方式来增加人们分享东西的。我们现在有一个很好的团队在这方面工作，他们可以让更多的人分享东西。
One of the main things that people share, there's a now way to share sentences much more easily. One of the main thing people share are weird sentences that they see on dual English. Some of the courses for one reason or another have very weird sentences. You know, I don't know if I can think of one of them like the German course has something like the sentences something like right next to the bed, lay the body of the husband or something like really weird stuff that people share. And that, you know, that that just gets a lot of people.
人们分享的主要事情之一是，现在有一种更容易分享句子的方式。人们分享的主要事情之一是他们在双语英语上看到的奇怪句子。由于某种原因，其中一些课程有非常奇怪的句子。你知道的，我不知道其中一个如德语课程有像句子放在床边之类的，丈夫的尸体躺在那里，或者类似非常奇怪的东西，人们分享的。而这就吸引了很多人。
So we're working on getting people to share like that. And it's working out pretty well. Thank you. Probably wrote that question about the sentence about the husband, but okay.
所以我们正在努力促使人们像那样分享。而且效果还不错。谢谢。也许那个有关丈夫的句子是我写的问题，不过没关系。
Next question comes from Mario Lou of Barclays. Great. Thanks for taking a question. So the first one's on App Store fees. Just curious your thought on the recent trim of apps bypassing the App Store, for example, you know, games like Fortnite and apps like Spotify Netflix have done this for a while. But more recently more traditional mobile games are implementing like a directed consumer payment method. Just curious your thoughts on any initiatives that you guys have on your end.
下一个问题来自巴克莱的Mario Lou。太好了。感谢您接受问题。首先，我想问的是关于App Store费用的问题。我对最近绕过App Store的应用程序削减感到好奇，例如像Fortnite这样的游戏和像Spotify Netflix这样的应用程序一直在这样做。但是，最近越来越多的传统移动游戏正在实施如有针对着消费者的支付方法。我想知道您对您们公司在这方面有任何举措的想法。
We're not currently working on that. You know, for us, we love the App Store. Obviously, it's hard to say that we wouldn't love it if they decreased their fees. Of course, we would. But we do really well with the app stores. They're an amazing distribution mechanism. And the thing when you go off App Store is that it's harder to distribute your product. And also it adds quite a bit of friction.
我们目前没有在处理那个事情。对我们来说，我们非常喜欢App Store。显然，如果他们减少费用，我们当然会更喜欢。但我们在应用商店上做得非常好。它们是一个令人惊叹的分发机制。当你离开应用商店时，分发你的产品会更加困难。而且这会增加一些阻力。
One of the amazing thing about the App Store is that people already have the credit card in there and they just have to tap once and it gets there. So you may be able to lower your fees, but you add so much friction to your users. That you know, it's not clear to us that we would make that much more money. It's something that we're always thinking about and may eventually do it. But it's not something that we're currently working on too much. Remember, Maria, we did get quite significant bump from Google lowering their apps App Store fees last year. So got it helpful.
App Store的一个惊人之处在于用户已经在里面存储了信用卡信息，只需轻点一下即可完成支付。因此，虽然你可能能够降低费用，但却会给用户带来很多不便。我们并不确定能够赚取更多的钱。虽然我们一直在考虑这个问题，但目前并没有过多地进行工作。不要忘记，去年谷歌降低应用商店费用后我们确实获得了相当可观的提升。因此，这对我们很有帮助。
And then second one is just on kind of changes to doing what happens. So I believe, you know, past week, or as you talked about the change to the single learning track being at parity. And any updates to that. And just in general, how do you balance between kind of optimizing for learning and versus having a more casual app that kind of attracts the masses.
第二个问题是关于应用如何变化的。我相信，就像你谈到的单一学习轨道变得平等化的变化，过去的一周中有没有其它相关更新？总的来说，你如何平衡优化学习和吸引大众的休闲应用之间的关系？
So I think just user feedback could be like a loud minority, but the removal of like things like oral prompts or type answers. I believe got some negative feedback. So just want to hear your thoughts there. Thanks.
我认为用户反馈可能只是少数人的意见，但是像口头提示或输入答案等功能的取消，我相信已经引起了一些负面反馈。所以我想听听你的想法。谢谢。
Maria, you read Reddit. Yeah. So it's a great question about the changes to the app. So we've made we made some pretty significant changes. We're always making the app better. I mean, this is what we work on. This is what we spent so much on R&D. We're literally always making the app better.
玛丽亚，你看Reddit吧。是的。关于应用程序变更的问题很棒。所以我们已经进行了一些相当显著的变更。我们一直在改进应用程序。这就是我们所致力的事情；这就是我们投入如此多在研发上的原因。我们确实一直在努力将应用程序变得更好。
Over the last year, we made this large change to our home screen going from, you know, giving a lot of choice about what to learn next to this linear path. The main reason we did that linear path, by the way, was to teach better. We noticed that we were when we were giving people so much choice what was going on was a significant fraction of them. We're just coming into extend the streak with really easy lessons that were not actually getting them to learn. Whereas now with the linear path, we've encouraged a significantly larger fraction of users to whenever they come to increase their streak. They actually also learned something. So we with the main reason we did that was actually to teach better and also to simplify our product, which has really helped us. But that was actually to teach better.
在过去的一年里，我们对我们的主屏幕进行了大规模的改变，从给予用户选择学习的内容，到现在的线性路径。我们这样做的主要原因是为了更好地教学。我们发现，当我们给用户太多选择的时候，他们中的很大一部分实际上只是在做非常简单的课程，没有真正学到什么。而现在通过线性路径，我们鼓励了更多的用户在每次到来时提升他们的连续学习天数，他们也在学习一些东西。因此，我们这样做的主要原因实际上是为了更好地教学，同时也简化了我们的产品，这对我们非常有帮助。
You know, the way we think of it is when we're making changes, we look at we have we have three things that we're improving. We're improving how well we teach. We're improving how engaging the app is so basically, you know, how much time people spend on it, how, you know, retention, et cetera. And we're improving how well we monetize. And we have large teams behind each one of these kind of group of metrics. And what happens is that each team, for example, there's the monetization team what they're trying to do is get more people to subscribe.
你知道，我们考虑的方式是，当我们进行改变时，我们会考虑我们要改进三件事情。我们要改进我们的教学质量，我们要改进应用程序的吸引力，这基本上是指人们在应用程序上花费的时间，保留率等等。我们要改进我们的商业模式。每个指标组后面都有庞大的团队。例如，有一个商业模式团队，他们试图让更多的人订阅。
Whenever they run a test to try to get more people to subscribe, what we enforce is that they cannot screw up the other metrics. So yes, you can get more people to subscribe, but you cannot decrease, you know, our number of DA use. You cannot decrease the time people spend learning or you cannot decrease the learning outcomes. Similarly, when we get people to the group of people that is that is dedicated to teach better, we tell them, okay, you can you can you can make changes that teach better, but you cannot screw up the monetization or you cannot screw up the, you know, the user engagement. That's how we balanced it. And we found that that works pretty well. And most every change in the app, you can actually trace it down that change was made by the group or by the team of people that is trying to make us grow faster or make us make more money, etc. And so, so that's that's how we do it. Hopefully that that gives you some color.
每当他们进行测试以试图获得更多订阅者时，我们所执行的是，他们不能破坏其他指标。所以，是的，你可以吸引更多人订阅，但你不能减少我们DA用户数量，不能降低人们学习的时间，也不能降低学习成果。同样的，当我们把人们放进致力于更好地教育的人群时，我们告诉他们，好的，你可以做出更好的教育改变，但你不能破坏盈利模型或用户参与度。这就是我们平衡的方式。我们发现这很有效。几乎应用中的每一个更改，你都可以追溯到是团队或小组试图使我们增长更快或赚更多钱而做出的更改。这就是我们的方式。希望这些内容能帮到你们了解更多。
Yeah, very helpful. Thank you. And next question comes from Arvin from Naughty from Piper Sampler. The muted Arvin. Just do.
非常有帮助，谢谢。下一个问题来自Piper Sampler的Naughty公司的Arvin，被静音了。只需那样做。
（注：原文有些奇怪，请作者协助确认）
Yeah, I still can hear you. Sorry, can you hear me now? Yes. Yes. Oh, perfect. Yeah, second's my first question is, you know, among the management team, who has the longest streak in terms of usage, but let me know how to say it. But I don't know the answer to that question, but I'm willing to bet it's me. I'm willing to bet it's me, but I don't know the answer. It's Luis. Yeah, we can be pretty sure about that. Thank you guys.
是的，我还能听到你说话。不好意思，你现在能听到我说话了吗？可以。可以。太好了。我的第一个问题是，你们管理层中，谁是最长时间使用这个的人？但我不知道这个问题的答案，但我愿意打赌是我。我愿意打赌是我，但我不知道答案。答案是Luis。是的，我们可以很确定。谢谢大家。
Yeah, yeah. So, you know, really good metrics, the user engagement and, you know, kind of the revenue growth and bookings, but, but I know there's a whole lot of other metrics you track. That beyond what you'll share with us, you know, so can you conceptually, if you're not able to share your hard numbers, I able to conceptually share a bit more underneath on some of the metrics that's giving you confidence in kind of the shape of the growth for this year. I mean, I don't know if we can share precise numbers of, you know, but there's the certain things that we share this and stuff that we don't share, but we do track a lot of metrics.
嗯，你知道的，我们有非常好的用户参与度、收入增长和预订指标，但是我知道你们在关注的指标远远不止这些，如果你不能分享具体数据，能否在概念上多说一些关于一些指标，这些指标让你对今年的增长形势充满信心。我不知道我们能否分享确切的数字，但是有一些我们分享的，还有一些我们不分享的，但是我们确实追踪了很多指标。
In general, as I was saying before, there are three groups of metrics. There is what we call the growth metrics, which is just usually, you know, our entire user base, you know, are they are they using the product more. More DA use, etc, there is the monetization metrics, which is, you know, how much money we make basically and then there's the metrics about how well we teach in each one of them, we have a ton of metrics in terms of growth, some of the things that at least I look at I look at I look at time spent learning. I look at DA you to MAU ratio, I look at resurrection rate so you know, kind of number of people that are being resurrected. I look at the retention of resurrected users, I look at the retention of current users, I look at the retention of new users. So that's the type of stuff.
一般来说，如前所述，有三大类指标。首先是增长指标，通常是指我们的整个用户群，他们是否更频繁地使用产品，更多地使用 DA 等等。其次是收入指标，即我们基本上赚了多少钱。第三大类则是关于我们在每个领域里教学的水平的指标。在这三大类指标中，我们有许多不同的指标来衡量增长。我看的一些指标包括学习花费的时间、活跃用户比例、用户复活率，也就是复活人数的数量。同时，我也会关注到复活后的用户和现有用户的保留率以及新用户的保留率。这些就是我们所关注的指标。
In monetization, the types of stuff we look at are things like, you know, conversion from free to paid, LTV retention of paying users daily bookings is something we look at a lot. Number of users or fraction of users that have an IP or do a purchase on an IP. In learning, we look at we look at a number of things, but one of the main things we look at is difficulty of the content that we're able to give out without scaring users all away. So you know, there's there's a lot of metrics that we track and you know, I don't even know all of them off the top of my head.
在货币化方面，我们关注的类型包括免费用户转化为付费用户的比例、付费用户的LTV保留率、每天的预订量等。我们也会关注有多少用户或用户比例在IP上进行购买。在学习方面，我们关注的内容很多，但其中最重要的之一是我们能够提供的内容难度，而不会让用户望而却步。因此，我们跟踪了许多数据指标，而我甚至不会立刻想到它们全部的名称。
Yeah, that that that that's helpful and then you know, kind of booking growth, you know, kind of sitting externally in some sense is a bit of a black box, but you know, are you able to share like when you project for booking growth, what are the inputs that go into into kind of coming up to like a projections for booking, booking growth. I mean, we don't need to know the specific numbers, but just conceptually what what goes into into predicting user growth. Yeah, we just take a look at the book. Oh, sorry, like that. We just take a ruler and go up like that on it works pretty well. I'm kidding. Matt hasn't much better answer than that.
是的，那个，那个，那个，那是有帮助的，然后你知道，预测增长在某种程度上有点像一个黑盒子，但是你知道，你能分享一下预测预订增长时需要考虑哪些因素吗？我的意思是，我们不需要知道具体数字，但是概念上，预测用户增长时需要考虑什么因素。是的，我们只是看一下预订的量。哦，不好意思，这个不太对。我们会采取更好的方法来回答这个问题。
Well, you know, maybe not the, I mean, the main thing about with bookings growth growth is that you know, there's just the two dimensions, there's new bookings, growth, new subscribers and those renewals. And so on the subscription side and then you can add in ads obviously an IAP on the new users, Louise basically talked about how we have a really complicated model and mark off model.
嗯，你知道，也许不是，我的意思是，预订增长的主要问题就在于，你知道，只有两个维度，新的预订增长和新用户以及续约。因此，在订阅方面，你可以增加广告和新用户的内购，路易丝基本上谈到了我们有一个非常复杂的模型和标记销售模型。
If you want to read our blog post on our growth model, how we predict users and input into that is new users and that's combination of organic growth and marketing spend. So we predict new users that flows into some element of new bookings. And then we're just basically doing cohort math for our cohorts of new users over time to see what we think they will convert into.
如果您想阅读我们关于增长模型的博客文章，那么我们是如何预测用户并输入新用户，这是有机增长和营销支出的组合。因此，我们预测新用户将流入某些新预订元素。然后，我们基本上只是针对新用户组进行队列数学推演，以了解他们可能转化为什么。
We're adding into that for the subscription business the renewal cohorts, which we have really good data on at this point. I feel pretty confident about so you add that together you get your subscription bookings. Add in ads and IAP, which again are a bit. You know, less detailed in you know, the cohorts make a little less sense for that. And then you got bookings is really that simple.
我们正在针对订阅业务添加续订队列，对于这一点，我们已经拥有非常好的数据。我对此感到非常自信，因此将其相加，您将得到订阅预订量。再加上广告和应用内购买，这些将会有点不太详细。您知道，对于这些，队列会有一些不太合理的地方。那么您的预订量就非常简单了。
Perfect. That's that's all I have. Thank you.
非常好。这就是我所有的了。谢谢。
该句子表达了某人结束谈话的意思，并表示感谢。
Well, that's all we have for questions. So I'm going to turn it back over to Louise. Thank you for all the excellent questions and please, please, I beg you to your doing a lesson.
好的，以上就是我们的问题全部回答完了。现在我要把话筒交还给Louise。感谢大家提出的所有问题，我恳求你们继续学习这门课程。