Elon Interview With WSJ 2023-05-25
发布时间 2023-05-25 10:52:40 来源
1巻 예쁜 전우 1巻 예쁜 전우 1巻 예쁜 전우 — ﷻ
VOLTILITY IN THE BANKING Sector WEEKENS CONFIDENCE AND HIGH INFLATION CONTINUES TO THREATON GROWTH. THIS YEAR, THE WALL STREET GERN'S CEO COUNCEL WILL once again explore the rapidly changing landscape as it brings together the world's foremost business, economic and political leaders in London. China-US relations are increasingly pivotal. Interest rates have taken the sharp rise and the AI revolution is dividing opinions and global labour forces remain robust. Can the world's business leaders stay on top of inflationary pressures and whether the effects of growing international tensions?
银行业的波动削弱了信心，高通胀持续威胁着经济增长。今年，华尔街日报的CEO论坛再次汇集了世界上最杰出的商业、经济和政治领袖，探讨日新月异的形势。中美关系日益关键，利率急剧上升，人工智能革命分化意见，全球劳动力依然坚实。世界商业领袖能否应对通胀压力，应对不断加剧的国际紧张局势带来的影响？
Welcome to the Wall Street Journal's CEO COUNCEL Summit. Please welcome to the stage, CEO of Dow Jones and publisher of the Wall Street Journal, Almar LeTorque. Hello. How's everybody doing? Everybody great? I know Table 2 is doing really well. Just, yeah, okay. Keep it quiet, folks. It's a good evening. And welcome to the CEO COUNCEL Summit here in London. It's great to be back.
欢迎来到华尔街日报CEO COUNCEL峰会。请欢迎道琼斯首席执行官兼华尔街日报出版人Almar LeTorque上台。大家好，一切都好吗？很高兴Table 2的人们都很好。请保持安静，这是一个美好的夜晚。欢迎来到伦敦的CEO COUNCEL峰会，我很高兴回到这里。
First, I want to start by thanking the people who actually made it all possible tonight. And there's many of you also in the audience. That's Philip Morris, international, or sponsors. Simon Kutcher, Bank Bekal, Bank Polski, GPW, Orlan, Polish Investment and Trade Agency, and Genic, Gazeta Provena. So thank you all for your strong support and for making tonight possible. We're really grateful for your partnership.
首先，我想开始感谢使今晚一切成为可能的人们。而你们中的许多人也在观众席上。他们是菲利普莫里斯国际或赞助商，西蒙库契尔银行，贝卡尔银行，波兰银行股份，Orlan公司，波兰投资和贸易局以及 Genic，Gazeta Provena。因此，非常感谢您们的大力支持，让今晚成为可能。我们非常感恩你们的合作。
Now, in a few minutes, I'm going to turn it over to a face very familiar to you and that is Thorl Barker. He's the Wall Street Journal Editor for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. And it has been doing an amazing job bringing all of you together and conducting wonderful conversations. And one of the conversations he's going to have is with a little known entrepreneur. We don't know if he's going to make it or not. But that's Elon, who is on the line already waiting. And so, beyond Elon, the last time that we were here, we talked about a lot of significant issues.
现在，再过几分钟，我将把话筒交给你们都非常熟悉的人Thorl Barker。他是《华尔街日报》的欧洲、中东和非洲总编辑，一直以来一直致力于将大家聚集在一起，进行美妙的对话。而其中之一的对话将会和一个鲜为人知的企业家进行。我们不知道他是否会成功，但那个人便是Elon，他已经在电话那边等待着了。因此，除了Elon之外，上一次我们在这里的时候，我们谈论了很多重要的问题。
An increasing complexity, an increasing tension, an aggressive change all around the world. And since that time, I think things have only gotten. More intense will hit all those topics while we are here. The war in Ukraine continues with no apparent end in sight. The U.S.-China relations, always difficult, perhaps at a more difficult point than ever before. We've experienced since last time we met here, bank crisis on both sides of the Atlantic. And then, of course, the generative AI is, I don't know about you during reception. It was probably every conversation was probably set up by generative AI, because that was, it seemed to be the only topic. So, we will dig into that very deeply.
世界变得越来越复杂、紧张和变革，这些情况似乎只会愈演愈烈。在此期间，我们将探讨这些话题。乌克兰战争无休止地持续着。美中关系始终复杂，也许比以往任何时候都更困难。自我们上次见面以来，在大西洋两岸都出现了银行危机。当然，生成式人工智能还是个话题，可能在接待会上的每一场谈话都是由生成式人工智能制定的，因为这似乎是唯一的话题。因此，我们将深入研究这些话题。
Now, we have great journalists and great guests. But, upper poll of journalists, I know that so many of you in the audience are aware of very specific situation for the Wall Street Journal. That is our colleague, Evan Gershkovic, who was arrested, wrongfully arrested, two months ago, roughly. In Russia, he's been in detention ever since. And there was a small update, well, not so small, significant update on that today, just this afternoon, where his pretrial detention has been extended by three months.
现在，我们有优秀的记者和嘉宾。但是，在场的很多观众中，我知道上层的新闻工作者们都意识到《华尔街日报》面临着非常特殊的情况。我们的同事埃文·格什科维奇在两个月前被错误地逮捕，自那时起一直被关押在俄罗斯。今天下午发生了一件小小的，但却相当重要的事情，那就是他的审前拘留期被延长了三个月。
I know you agree with this, that his arrest is an outrage, that his arrest is an assault on free press, and ultimately an assault on free society. And I thank you also on behalf of the entirety of Dow Jones, the Wall Street Journal, and editor-in-chief, Emma Tucker, for your tremendous support throughout. So, thanks for that.
我知道你赞同这一点，认为他被逮捕是一种令人愤怒的行为，这是对新闻自由的攻击，并最终成为对自由社会的攻击。我也代表道琼斯、华尔街日报和主编埃玛·塔克尔，感谢你一直以来的大力支持。谢谢你。
So, with that, one final message, that the action is on stage, but it's also off stage. I personally make great use of the interactions that I have with all of you. I know you are doing the same. I learned already a dangerous number of things tonight here at Table 2. And so, I wish you a wonderful evening, and here is Thorol Bacher. Thank you.
所以说，在这里，我有一个最后的信息，那就是行动不仅在舞台上，也在舞台下。我个人非常重视与你们所有人之间的互动。我知道你们也在同样努力地做着这件事情。今晚，我已经在二号桌学到了许多有用的东西，这真是千载难逢的机会。因此，我祝愿你们今晚愉快，接下来请 Thorol Bacher 上台致辞。谢谢。
Thank you very much, Alma, and welcome everybody. This is actually the sixth year that we have done the CO Council here in London, sadly, a few of those were virtual during the pandemic, but it's fabulous to have so many of you here tonight, and so many familiar faces. So, thank you very much for coming.
非常感谢你，阿尔玛，欢迎大家。这是我们在伦敦举办CO Council的第六年了，遗憾的是，在疫情期间有几次是虚拟的，但今晚有这么多人和这么多熟悉的面孔出现，真是太棒了。非常感谢你们来参加。
We have a fabulous lineup for you over the next 24 hours, and we're going to be covering a lot of the themes that Alma talked about. But we're going to start with someone who sits at the centre of so many of these. So, please welcome virtually, Elon Musk. Thank you very much. Thank you very much.
在未来的24小时里，我们将为您带来精彩的阵容，并且将涵盖Alma谈到的许多主题。但是我们将从一个处于众多主题中心的人开始。所以，请欢迎虚拟出现的埃隆·马斯克。非常感谢。谢谢大家。
Elon, welcome. Hi. You in Palo Alto, I understand. I'm at Global Engineering headquarters in Palo Alto. Thank you so much for joining us.
埃隆，欢迎。嗨。我了解你在帕洛阿尔托。我在帕洛阿尔托的全球工程总部。非常感谢你的加入。
I'm actually going to start somewhere a little bit differently than I expected, because I just saw on Twitter a little announcement, and would love to get your thoughts on it. I see you're infusing Ronda Sanses tomorrow morning. Is that right? On Twitter Spaces?
实际上，我要从一开始就有点不同，因为我刚在Twitter上看到了一个小公告，很想听听你的想法。我看到你明天早上要在Twitter Spaces上为Ronda Sanses注入活力。是这样的吗？
Yes, I think. I need to look at the exact time, but tomorrow morning, your time, I think, it would be correct. So, yes, we'll be interviewing Ronda Sanses, and he has quite an announcement to make. And we'll be, with the first sign, that's something that this is happening on social media. And with real-time questions and answers, not scripted.
我想是的。我需要确切的时间，但是明天早上你们那里的时间，我觉得是正确的。所以，是的，我们将采访Ronda Sanses，他有一个非常重要的公告要发表。我们会使用第一时间的社交媒体来提醒大家这一消息。同时还会实时回答问题，不会事先安排好脚本。
So, it's going to be live and let that's letter up. Let's see what happens. And you've been tweeting some Tim Scott stuff in the last few days. What should we be thinking about who you're backing? Obviously, this interview tells us something. Can you give us a sense of where you're thinking is at the moment?
所以，我们要看着状况，让那个信件公开化。你最近发了一些有关Tim Scott的推文。我们应该考虑你支持谁？显然，这次采访可以告诉我们一些信息。你能给我们一个你目前想法的概述吗？
Yes, I mean, I'm not at this time planning to endorse any particular candidates. But I am interested in, you know, X-Lush Twitter being somewhat of a public town square, and where more and more organizations host content and make announcements on Twitter. It's the only place on the internet to really get real-time, like, down to the minute and second news.
是的，我的意思是，我目前没有计划支持任何特定的候选人。但我对于X-Lush Twitter是公共广场的某种形式感兴趣，越来越多的组织在Twitter上发布内容和公告。这是互联网上唯一能够实时获取类似于每分钟和每秒钟的新闻的地方。
And it's, yeah, so I think it's quite groundbreaking that there would be a major announcement of this type on social media.
这是一个惊人的消息，我认为社交媒体上有这样一个重要的公告是非常有开创性的。
And should we expect, sorry, I don't want to go on too long about this, but in your new role as interviewer, rather than into UE, should we expect more of this? I mean, if it's the town square, are you going to be interviewing other candidates, Democrats? What's your thought of this? Are people willing to come? Are you going to be there to execute the town square across the spectrum?
我们是否应该期望，在你作为采访者的新角色中，而不是过去的UE职责中，我们会看到更多这样的事情？我的意思是，如果这是城市广场，你会采访其他候选人，民主党人吗？你对此有何想法？人们是否愿意加入？你是否会在不同领域执行这个城市广场？
Yes, absolutely. So just as I promised when I do a series of media interviews, I did a range of interviews. And I guess this would be also a media interview. So ranging from sort of on the left, moderate to what's considered right. And I do think it's important that Twitter be, have both the reality and the perception of a level playing field of a place where voices are heard, and where there's the kind of dynamic interaction that is you don't really see anywhere else.
是的，完全正确。所以，正如我承诺的那样，当我进行一系列的媒体采访时，我进行了各种采访。我想这个也可以算是一次媒体采访。从左派、温和派到所谓的右派。我认为，Twitter拥有一个公平竞争的现实和认知，是重要的，这是一个听取声音的地方，这里有一种动态互动，你在别的地方看不到。
I mean, today on Twitter, for example, AOC got into an argument on Twitter, which was, in the independent of which side do you agree with? It's not very entertaining. So what, and I'm sure tomorrow will be entertaining, we're all going to be tuned into that. But when you approach an interview like that, and obviously a really important election like the one that is coming up, can you just talk a little bit about what are the key issues that really matter for you at this pivotal moment?
我的意思是，比如今天在推特上，AOC和人争论了起来，不管你同意哪一方，这并不是很有趣的话题。所以说，我相信明天会有更有趣的事情，我们都会关注它。但是，当你像这样接受采访时，尤其是像即将到来的这个非常重要的选举一样，你可以谈谈在这个关键时刻你认为真正重要的关键问题吗？
You mean matter for me as an individual or?
你的意思是对于我个人来说有关系吗？
It's not a for you as an individual in terms of who leads the country, but also more broadly than that for the country and for your businesses. Can you give your sense of where the real issues lie here?
这不仅关乎你个人对国家领导人的选择，而且更广泛地影响到国家和你的企业。你觉得真正的问题在哪里？
Well, I've said publicly that my preference, and I think the preference of most Americans, is really to have someone fairly normal in office. I think it'll be quite happy with that, actually. You know, I think someone that is representative of the moderate views that I think most the country holds in reality. But the way things are set up is that we do have a system that seems to push things towards the edges because of the primaries.
我公开表示过，我个人的偏好，也认为大部分美国人的偏好，是希望有一个相当正常的人担任职务。实际上，我认为大部分人会非常满意这种情况。我认为这个人应该代表现实中大部分国家的温和观点。但是目前的情况是，在初选中，我们的制度似乎推动事情朝着极端方向发展。
So in order to win the primary, you've got to win, obviously, majority of your party's vote. In both cases, that tends to cause a swing to the left and the right. Although I think things are more complex than simply left and right during the primaries, and then a shift towards the center for the general election. As far as what I think is.
为了赢得初选，你必须赢得自己党派的多数票，这显然是必须的。在这两种情况下，往往会导致左右两派的摇摆。虽然我认为在初选期间，事情比简单的左右摇摆要复杂，而在总统选举期间会向中心转移。这是我的看法。
Yeah, so I'd really just like someone who's fairly normal and sensible to be the president, that would be great. So if we go through the four names in the frame at the moment, can you just give us sort of yes, no, and whether they're normal and sensible? So we've got Joe Biden.
是的，我希望总统是一个相对正常和明智的人，那将是很棒的。所以，如果我们在目前的四个候选人名单中进行选择，你能否给我们一些肯定或否定的反馈，以及他们是否正常和明智呢？我们有乔·拜登。
I think I got you. You know, be careful about these statements. So we'd maybe have to have a few drinks before I would give you the answers to all of them. I will look forward to that, and I look forward to the conversation tomorrow, and obviously a lot more of those to come over the coming months.
我想我明白你的意思了。你知道的，这些话要小心说。也许我们得先喝几杯才能让我告诉你所有的答案。我期待这样的时刻，我期待明天的交谈，当然，未来几个月里还有更多这样的机会。
So that's great. Thank you very much. So what I wanted to start with, you've just flown in, I think, in the last 20 minutes. You live a pretty hectic lifestyle. But you've said that the only true currency is time. Can you give a sense to the people in this room who are scheduled within an inch of their lives, sort of how you.
非常棒，非常感谢您。我想要开始进行的话题是，据我所知，您刚刚飞抵这里，时间非常紧张。但是您说过，唯一真正的货币是时间。您能否向这个房间里被计划安排得密不透风的人们传达一些信息，来展示您是如何处理时间的呢？
What is the day in the life of Elon Musk? What does that look like?
埃隆·马斯克的一天是什么样子？他的生活是什么样子？
That is very long and complicated, as you might imagine. There's great deal of context switching. There's a meme I like called like, relating to doom, where it's like, fear is not the mind killer context switching is. So switching context is quite painful.
这个很长，而且很复杂，你可能能想象得到。需要不断地切换不同的上下文，有一个我喜欢的名为“末日之恐惧”（doom）的梗，其中有这样一句话，说“害怕不是杀死思维的罪魁祸首，而是上下文的不断转换。”因此，不断地切换上下文非常痛苦。
I do generally try to divide a company that's predominantly one company on one day. So today is a Tesla day, for example. Although I might end up at Twitter late tonight, and then tomorrow would be partly a Tesla day as well, but just to have Twitter. And then at those days would be sort of a half space, six half Tesla day. But these things are so intertwined. So the time management is extremely difficult.
我通常会尝试在一天内将一个主要的公司分开处理。比如今天是特斯拉的一天。虽然我可能会在晚上很晚才去到 Twitter，然后明天也会在特斯拉出现，但只是顺便做一下 Twitter 的事情。这些工作是相互关联的，时间管理非常困难。
And this is going to sound pretty strange, but I only have one part time assistant. How many days a week is that the part time? I suppose it was the out of show works, it would technically be full time, but it's not. I do most of the scheduling myself. The reason I do that is because it's impossible for someone else to know what the priorities are. So the, and since the most valuable thing I have is time I schedule it myself for the most part.
这可能听起来很奇怪，但我只有一个兼职助手。每周有几天是兼职的？我想如果算上演出外的工作，那技术上应该算全职，但实际不是这样。我大部分的时间安排工作都是自己完成的。我之所以这样做是因为别人不可能知道什么是最重要的。既然我最宝贵的东西就是时间，大部分时间我都会自己安排。
So if you come into Tesla today, do you have a series of meetings set up, or do you come in with something on your mind and you go and see people? What structure is this? Or if you shop at Twitter? In terms of the people working for you, how do they handle that?
那么，如果你今天来到特斯拉，你是安排了一系列的会议，还是有一些事情闪现在脑海里，然后去找人处理？这是什么样的结构？或者你在使用Twitter？在你手下工作的人，他们如何应对这种情况？
So today I have several hours of scheduled meetings at Twitter. So there are a number of things that are prepared in a weekly cadence. And so those meetings are already set up. And then I have some mental meetings at the end of the day. I won't be going to sleep until probably 2 a.m. or something like that. I'm working almost the entire time.
今天我在Twitter有几个小时的预定会议。有一些事情是按照每周的节奏准备好的，这些会议已经安排好了。然后我会在一天结束时处理一些心理会议。我可能要工作到凌晨2点左右才能睡觉。我几乎一直在工作。
And if you're scheduling this yourself, is AI going to be helpful over the next few years to help you do this? Are you going to be using technology to help you manage that? I guess we'll all be using technology. I use a lot of AI myself day to day. I mean, Tesla AI is actually very advanced for real world AI. It's the most advanced real world AI by far. And if positions were swapped and it was say, I have to Microsoft and OpenAI to create the best large language model.
如果你是自己安排行程的话，未来几年内AI会对你的帮助有多大？你会使用技术帮助您管理吗？我想我们都会使用技术。我自己日常生活中使用很多人工智能。我的意思是，特斯拉AI实际上非常先进，是迄今为止最先进的真实世界AI。如果位置互换一下，比如说我到Microsoft和OpenAI去创建最好的大型语言模型。
If it's tasks were swapped, Tesla was given the task of making the most competitive large language model. And Microsoft OpenAI were tasked with self-driving. Tesla would win. I don't think we understand the degree of the capability of Tesla's AI system. So while I don't use AI a lot, Tesla uses a trans-mount. We'll get on to that in a second if that's OK.
如果任务对调，将特斯拉赋予制作最具竞争力的大型语言模型的任务，微软OpenAI则负责自动驾驶，特斯拉将会胜出。我认为我们不理解特斯拉人工智能系统的能力程度。所以虽然我不经常使用人工智能，但特斯拉使用了一种跨越式的技术，如果可以的话，我们稍后会详细讨论。
But one final thing in terms of just the management of what you do with your life, you're running three very big companies. You have very big stakes and ownership control of two of those at least. What is your succession plan if you suddenly can't execute what you're doing? Both in terms of who runs the companies, but as importantly, who votes those shares in terms of what happens longer term and strategically. Have you got a plan for all of those?
在管理你的生活时，还有一件非常重要的事情，那就是你在经营三家非常大的公司。你至少占有两家公司的大量股份和所有权控制权。如果你突然不能执行你的工作了，你有继任计划吗？包括谁来经营这些公司，这些公司的长期战略的股权投票人还有谁。你有为这些问题做过计划吗？
Yeah, succession is one of the toughest age-old problems. It's plagued countries, kings, prime ministers and presidents for NCOs for, you know, since the dawn of history. There is no obvious solution. I mean, there are particularly individuals identified as that I've told board, look, if something happens to me unexpectedly, this is who my, this is my recommendation for taking over. So in all cases, the board is aware of who my recommendation is, which they may choose to, it's up to them, or they may choose to go to the direction, but I think there is a, in the worst case scenario, this is who should run the company.
继承是最困难的长期问题之一。自历史开始以来，它一直困扰着各个国家、国王、总理和军官。目前没有明显的解决方案。我是说，有一些人被认为是接班人，我已经告诉过董事会，如果我突然离开公司，这就是我推荐的接班人。因此，在所有情况下，董事会都知道我推荐的人选，他们可以决定是否接受，或者他们可以选择其他方向。但我认为，在最坏的情况下，这就是应该管理公司的人。
The control question is a much more, there's a much tougher question. And something that I'm resting with and I'm practically open to ideas because it's certainly is true that the companies that I have created and are creating collectively possess immense capability. And so the stewardship of them is incredibly important. I want to make sure that the stewardship is ultimately accrues the benefit of humanity. That's the idea is the furtherance of civilization. But that they were always successful in that, but that is aspirationally our goal.
控制问题是一个更加困难的问题。我正在努力思考，并非常愿意接受各种意见，因为我们创建的公司和正在创建的公司都拥有巨大的能力。因此，它们的管理非常重要。我希望确保管理最终使人类受益。这个想法是促进文明的发展。虽然我们并不总是成功的，但这是我们的目标。
So I have one idea which is sort of partly in place, which is create kind of an educational institution that that would control most of my vote. But this is not a case of automatically, I'm definitely not not at the school of automatically giving my kids some share of the companies, even if they have no interest or inclination or ability to manage the company. So it's a very hard problem to solve. And then who should be on the board of directors of the educational institution is also a very, very hard job to solve. So I think probably some disaggregation of control would make sense.
我有一个想法，部分已经开始实施，就是构建一所教育机构来控制我大部分的选票。但这并不是说我会自动把公司的一部分股份给我的孩子们，即使他们没有管理公司的兴趣、倾向或能力。这是一个非常难以解决的问题。而教育机构的董事会应该由谁来决定也是非常困难的。因此，我认为可能对控制权进行一些分解是有道理的。
I'm really just kind of thinking out loud creatively here. And it's something that you need to get planning of who those people are going to be, because as you've said, when you look at space, actually look at Tesla, you look at Twitter, these matter to society a lot. And having the right people to take those votes on the future of where they go and where money gets spent is very important. Yes, absolutely.
我这只是随意创意发挥，需要计划确定那些人会是哪些人。因为正如你所说，当你看到太空、特斯拉和推特，这些对社会很重要。因此，有正确的人去决定他们的未来发展和资产的投资是非常重要的。是的，绝对正确。
Now the goals of the companies that are that's even of those goals varies considerably in difficulty. The original goal of Tesla was to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy, which actually I think we've done that to a significant degree. And actually it's kind of it's kind of an order industry CEOs to often acknowledge Tesla's role in accelerating electric vehicles. So that I feel has a lot of momentum. This is still solving self-driving, which we're, you know, aspirationally helping to do this year.
现在，企业的目标相差甚远，其难度也各有不同。Tesla的最初目标是加速可持续能源的进程，我认为我们已经在这方面取得了重大进展。实际上，业界CEO通常会承认Tesla在加速电动汽车方面的作用。所以我认为这个事业还有很多势头。我们仍在努力解决自动驾驶问题，我们有志于在今年帮助实现这个目标。
And so Tesla got a long way to go, but the execution plan is relatively clear. And that execution plan will generate a lot of positive cashflow for the company. So it's like a fairly obvious thing to do with SpaceX. It's a harder problem because the long term objective is to make like multi-planetary with the self-sustaining city on Mars, which is likely to be very cashflow negative at first. That's very much a long term. Let's just say the target market on Mars is small. You got to think long term here. You're also going to have to get on very well with those you go with. I would imagine.
因此，特斯拉还有很长的路要走，但执行计划相对清晰，并且这个执行计划将为公司带来大量正面的现金流。因此，与SpaceX合作是一个相当明显的事情。这是一个更难的问题，因为长期目标是在火星上建立自给自足的城市，这很可能在开始时非常负现金流。这是非常长期的计划。我们可以说，在火星上的目标市场很小。在这里要考虑长远。你还必须与你一同前往的人相处得很好，我想象。
Yes, definitely. You know, you know, you're sanity will be a prime requirement for stability for traveling to Mars. You don't want someone going nuts and opening the airlocking middle of the night. So, so, so, so, SpaceX is a harder problem because it's it's a much longer term goal and and with a lot more money lost along the way. So, going to make sure that that happens.
是的，肯定的。你知道，你的理智对于前往火星旅行的稳定是一个最关键的要求。你不想有人在半夜发疯打开舱门。所以，SpaceX是一个更困难的问题，因为它是一个更长期的目标，而且在这个过程中可能会有更多的损失。所以，我们需要确保这一目标得以实现。
And is that the sort of thing just to stay on SpaceX and we'll go to Twitter and, Tez, in a second, but is that the sort of thing that you'd like to lock in to the goals of SpaceX that Mars remains the ultimate ambition of this. Come on, me. Is that is that that important to you? Yeah, I mean, it's it's to make life multi multi planetary such that and the key threshold for multi planetary is that if the supply ships from earth start coming for any reason that Mars does not die out. That's the that's the critical great filter.
这种情况是不是只有专注于SpaceX才能实现，我们稍后会转到Twitter和Tez，但这是不是你想锁定在SpaceX的目标中，让火星依然是最终的雄心壮志。拜托，这对你来说很重要吗？是的，我的意思是，让生命跨越多个星球，这是关键阈值是多行星的，即使地球的补给船因任何原因停止运行，火星也不能灭亡。这就是关键的大滤清器。
If you put things in terms of the Fermi paradox, the great filter is Mars being self-sustaining without any reason to pledge us from Earth until we reach that point, we're really just one planet civilization with an extension. But the point which the planet self-sustaining or Mars self-sustaining, then even in a worst case scenario of Earth civilization either dying with a bang or a whip or then Mars would have a much better chance of surviving. So the intent here overall is to ensure that consciousness which appears to be just a tiny candle and a vast darkness.
如果你用费米悖论来解释，那么“大滤网”就是指火星能够自我维持，即使我们还未到达这个能力的地步，我们也只是一个行星文明的延伸。但如果能够让地球成为自我维持或者火星成为自我维持，即使最坏的情况出现，地球文明要么猛然毁灭要么衰落，火星仍将有更好的生存机会。所以总的意图就是要确保觉醒意识在茫茫黑暗之中像微小的蜡烛般持续燃烧。
I frequently I frequently get asked to have I seen any evidence of aliens and I I've not. I want to have an alien registration card when I was getting my green green card. I said alien registration. Indeed. Possibly a slightly different type of alien. But so do you think you'll will you live to see Mars happen? I hope to live to see the first humans on Mars. But I think it will take some period of time beyond that to make Mars self-sustaining. So it's at least 20 years from the first visit to make Mars sustaining because my guess and it may be 40 or 50. And that's assuming you really go for it. That's a tough one.
我常常被问到有没有看到过外星人的证据，但我从未看到过。当我申请绿卡时，我想拥有一个外国人登记卡。我说的是外国人登记卡。或许会是一种略微不同类型的外星人。但你认为你会活到看到火星发生吗？我希望能活到看到第一批人类登上火星。但我认为将需要更长一段时间才能使火星能够自我维持，至少需要20年自第一次访问开始，可能需要40或50年。这还假设你真的全力以赴。这是一个艰难的问题。
But I like to think it's important for improving the survivability of civilization. And who's going to pay for that? I mean are your investors going to put the money up to do that? Are you going to expect government to fund that? Where does that money come from? Because as you say you can make a return on styling. You can make a return on launching satellites for other people and space tourism. But that's a that's a tougher return isn't it?
但我认为提高文明的生存能力很重要。那么谁会为此付款呢？我的意思是，你的投资者会投资这个吗？你希望政府资助这个吗？钱从哪儿来？因为你可以通过推广和卫星的发射获得回报。但这个需要更高的回报，不是吗？
I think long term the value of it will be incredibly high. It's just beyond the planning horizon of most people or most investors. So I mean obviously if there's a thriving city on Mars and there's a lot of interplanetary commerce and space exists as the primary provider of that it would be immensely valuable. So the one thing is that there be this self-sustaining that you know colony. And I think we I think we generally operate with much more assumption that civilization is robust and nothing could really take it down. So a sentiment that has been common throughout history among empires shortly before they come.
我认为从长期来看，它的价值将会非常高。但这已经超出了大多数人或投资者的规划范围。显然，如果在火星上有一个繁荣的城市，有很多星际贸易和太空作为主要供应商，这将会非常有价值。所以有一件事是需要有一个自给自足的殖民地。我认为我们通常会假设文明是强大的，并且没有什么可以真正击垮它。这是历史上帝国在崩溃前的共同感受。
So you know I have to say that you know there's a little bit of late stage empire vibes going on right now. Yeah yeah that is for sure. Are you. Is AI something that in your view accelerates the risk of that or increases the risk of that outcome?
所以你知道，我必须说，你知道有一点晚期帝国的感觉正在发生。是的，是的，那肯定是有的。你认为人工智能会加速这种风险或增加这种结果的风险吗？
Yeah. We could definitely make a city or most of self-sustaining without without AI or without sort of a AI which is generally artificial general intelligence or super intelligence. I think that that is a it's not necessary for anything we're doing but it is happening and happening very quickly. So there is a risk that advanced AI either eliminates all constraints humanities growth. I was more thinking the opposite does it increase the chance that plant the planet self input implodes and those things come true. I mean how concerned are you about these developments right now sort of accelerating your your bad case scenario.
是的，我们绝对可以让一个城市或大部分城市自给自足，而不需要AI或普遍人工智能或超级智能。我认为这不是我们所做的任何事情所必需的，但它正在发生，而且发生得非常快。因此，有一个风险，即先进的人工智能会消除人类成长的所有限制。我更多地考虑其相反效果，它是否增加了行星自我崩溃的概率，这些事情成真。我的意思是，你现在对这些发展有多担忧？是否加速了您的最坏情况的发生？
Well I mean the development of artificial digital sort of super intelligence is very much a double edge sword so it's if you have a genie that can grant you anything that can also do anything. That necessarily is presented danger and I expect the first uses of AI to be. Certainly first common uses of AI to be weapon technology so just having more advanced weapons on the battle that can react faster than any human could. That's really what AI will capable of. I mean future wars between advanced countries or at least countries that have significant drone capability will be very much the drone wars. So I want to get back to AI because this is this is big stuff and I'd like to talk about it more detail but I do want to come just come back to the present from a long way in the future.
我是说人工数字超级智能的发展是一个双刃剑，这意味着如果你有一只可以满足你任何愿望并可以做任何事情的神灯，那么也必然存在危险。我预计最初使用人工智能的领域将是武器技术，即在战斗中拥有比任何人类反应更快的更先进的武器。这就是人工智能的能力所在。我的意思是，未来先进国家或者至少拥有显著无人机能力的国家之间的战争将非常依赖无人机技术。因此，我想回到人工智能这个话题，这是一件非常重要的事情，我想更详细地讨论它，但我也希望从未来回到现在。
You just hired a new CEO Linda Linda Jacarino and add veteran into Twitter you usually focus on hiring engineers you know Linda is a very different person can you just quickly tell us about your courtship how did that go down. Well we had conversations over a number of months just relating to advertising and then Linda felt that it was very helpful for the advertisers to see me and person so invite me down to a conference in Miami which was very helpful and met with number of advertisers personally to show their you know that that Twitter is a good place to advertise. In general that in fact that that haste features declined which it has and that the quality of the system with respect to scams and spam is dramatically better than it used to be.
刚刚您雇了一位新的CEO Linda Jacarino，并把一个老将加入到Twitter团队中。通常而言，您更加关注的是招聘工程师，那么Linda又是一位和他们截然不同的人。请问您能简单地告诉我们一下你们的邂逅过程吗？嗯，在过去的几个月里，我们一直在谈论广告问题。后来Linda认为让广告主亲眼看见我会有很大的帮助，就邀请我去了一次迈阿密的会议，我也很开心地和许多广告主面对面交流，让他们知道Twitter是一个很好的广告投放平台。总的来说，我们也介绍了Twitter的一些新特性，它的使用质量和反作弊功能也得到了极大的提升。
We've gotten rid of at this point well of a 90% of the scams and scams the scams in spam on Twitter so it should be quite rare at this point that you see a scam. So we've also rolled out sort of just to be clear when you say you've got it at 90% of the scams is that the same thing as the bots or is this scams in general and bots is a different animal here. No no typically use bots for scam. But you haven't taken the bots down 90% now I think we have actually. Maybe more than 90% at least is now much much harder to operate a bot bomb on Twitter and haven't yield any any advantage. So dramatic improvement in bots dramatic improvement inability to detect sort of troll armies which is a little different that's where you've got say you know 100 people in warehouse in a low wage country each of which are sitting at a desk with a hundred phones so you've got 10,000 actual people and they will then act together to brigade a particular subject or make something seem very popular when it is not. And we've been able to defeat almost all of them we think very few of them are actually still able to operate.
目前，我们已经成功地消除了Twitter上90%的诈骗信息和骗局，所以你现在几乎不可能再遇到这样的骗局了。我们也已经开始清理机器人的问题，你说的90%的骗局是否也包括机器人的问题呢？其实我们通常也会用机器人来进行骗局，但我们已经成功消除了90%的机器人，现在更难以进行机器人轰炸了，也没有什么优势可言。除此之外，我们还显著提高了识别探子军队（troll armies）的能力，这和机器人不太一样。探子军队是指由一百个人组成的低收入国家的工厂，在每个工位上都有一百部手机，他们会联合行动，制造出某种看似非常受欢迎的氛围。我们已经几乎全部清除了这类人员，现在他们已经无法继续运营了。
So all of the system has gotten a lot better. So if you said to Linda that you are going to keep speaking your mind whatever the commercial impact of that and is she agreed to that is she happy with that you aligned. OK and in her role as CEO does she have any say over moderation or is that under you or you do that together. Well the general principle is that we will we will heal close to the law so for any given country we will try to adhere as close to the law as possible. Our law is very between countries and we can't simply thought the law in in another country because they will simply cut us off. So with the general principle is do it if we can to enable free and open communications with between people provided they're not like said breaking.
整个系统都变得更好了。如果你告诉琳达说，你将继续说出自己的想法，无论商业影响如何，而她同意并对此感到满意，那就达成了一致。那么作为CEO，她对内容的审核有影响力吗，还是需要你们共同合作？嗯，一般的原则是我们会尽量遵守法律，对于每个国家，我们会尽量按照该国家的法律来执行。因为不同国家的法律有很大差异，我们不能仅仅按照某个国家的法律来执行，否则他们会把我们隔离在外。所以，一般原则是：只要不违反法律，我们会尽可能地促进人与人之间的自由和开放的交流。
So we have a line on that plan. There is an important thing which is like that that obviously doesn't mean that say advertisers should be forced to appear next to any content. So we've also developed a JZC controls that ensure that if where you're advertising is like Disney for example is a big advertising. A children movie they want the contents nearby to be sort of family friendly that's totally understandable. So it's not like advertisers have to appear next to content that they don't agree with. So some people say you can't be a little erratic with your tweeting or least tweet a broad range of content.
所以我们有一个关于这个计划的想法。有一件重要的事情，就像明显的那样，这并不意味着广告商应该被强制出现在任何内容旁边。因此，我们还开发了JZC控制，以确保如果您在像迪士尼这样的地方广告，例如是一个大型广告。他们希望附近的内容都是适合家庭的，这是完全可以理解的。因此，广告商不必出现在他们不同意的内容旁边。所以有些人说，你不能有点失常地发推文或者至少不要发一些广泛的内容。
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Does anybody say I don't want to be adjacent to Elon Musk? Is that something that's happened on the platform? I've never heard that yet. Did that come up with Linda at all? Sort of what you tweet and whether that was something that could affect advertisers? Did she ask you about that?
有人说过他不想与埃隆·马斯克为邻吗？在平台上发生过这种事情吗？我还没有听到过。在琳达那里有提到吗？你发的推文是否会影响广告商？她有问你这个吗？
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I should have in fact at the conference that we do with Miami and then we speech as paramount. I wanted to ask you a little bit about your vision for Twitter as a community and as a conversation. You've talked about your desire to maximize unregretted time. Can you explain what that means and how you measure that?
实际上，在那次与迈阿密举行的会议上，我们应该讲演至为重要。我想问问您关于Twitter作为社区和对话的愿景。您曾谈到过希望最大化未后悔的时间。这是什么意思，您如何衡量呢？
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So previously Twitter was mostly focused on this number called M-Dowl monetizable daily active users. So I wanted to see a notification on their phone about a tweet but they wouldn't actually click through the site. So what really matters is true user seconds of screen time. So that's the figure we track right now. And that's based on the screen time as reported to us by iOS and Android and the browser. So it would have to the amount of time the app is in the foreground. Right. Which is the most rigorous way to assess this.
之前，Twitter主要关注的是一个叫做“M-Dowl可盈利日活跃用户”的数字。我希望用户在他们的手机上看到我的推特后点击进入网站，但事实上他们并没有这么做。所以真正重要的是用户的真实屏幕使用时间。所以现在我们追踪的是这个数据。它基于iOS，Android和浏览器向我们报告的屏幕时间。这将是应用程序在前台的时间量。这是评估这个数据最严格的方法。
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So when you say unregretted, sorry, please, could go. Exactly. So in terms of undergraded, it's that that's a little harder to measure. But we can certainly gather it anecdotally, which is to say that if you spent, you know, half an hour and 20 yesterday, you'd have to say that you're not going to be able to measure that time. So that's the most accurate way to measure that time to your regret. And journaling feedback of button has been very positive. That they find it's information useful, entertaining, funny. So we seem to be heading the right direction as far as I can tell. I'm certainly open to any critiques from the room.
如果你说没有后悔，对不起，请走，对。所以在这种情况下，难以测量底层的人的价值，但我们可以通过个人经验进行收集。也就是说，如果你昨天花了半个小时，你会发现你无法衡量那段时间的价值。因此，最准确的衡量底层时间的方法是遗憾。反馈按钮的日志反馈非常积极。人们认为这些信息很有用、娱乐、有趣。据我所知，我们似乎正在朝着正确的方向前进。我当然愿意听取大家的意见。
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Let me ask you one on that, which is, you know, you recently tweeted about George Soros. Let me just get the words because I'm kind of interested in what you think about this. He wants to erode the very fabric of civilization, Soros hates humanity. That obviously generated a huge amount of response on Twitter on both sides. Lots of different viewpoints. Is that unregrettable time, unregretted time? That debate that you created, does that fit into that category, do you think?
我想问你一个问题，你最近在推特上谈到了乔治·索罗斯。让我找一下这个推文，因为我很感兴趣你对此的看法。你说他想破坏文明的本质，索罗斯憎恶人类。这显然在推特上引发了大量的反响，各种不同的观点。那次争辩是不后悔的时光吗？你认为这场辩论是否属于那个类别呢？
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Well, I mean, I said like Soros reminds me of Magneto, you know. Well, you then went a little further than that. But again, without going into the Soros tweet itself, you know, you're obviously a big figure on Twitter and you're setting a tone and an aim. So I'm just curious as to whether that sort of debate, which gets triggered, does that fit into the definition that you're trying to create in that new town square?
我是说，索罗斯让我想起了万磁王，你懂的。虽然你比我说得更加深入，但不提及索罗斯的推文本身，你显然在Twitter上是一个重要人物，你正在设定一个口风和目标。所以我很想知道，这种触发的辩论是否符合你正在创建的新城市广场的定义？
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Well, I mean, the important thing is that like, look, what I say is not, is what I say. You know, it's sort of a town square. I'm not going to mitigate what I say because that would be inhibiting freedom of speech. That doesn't mean you have to agree with what I say. In order to mean if somebody says the total opposite that there would be supported on Twitter, they are. The point is to have a diversion set of views. And free speech is only relevant if it's speech by, if speech by someone you don't like, it says something you don't like. Is that allowed? If so, you have free speech, otherwise you do not. And for those who would advocate censorship, I would say it is, if you succeed in that, it's only a matter of time before the censorship gets to an end on you.
嗯，我的意思是，重要的是像我说的，只是我的话。你知道，这有点像一个市集。我不会减轻我所说的话，因为那会限制言论自由。这并不意味着你必须同意我的观点。事实上，如果有人完全持相反的观点，在推特上得到支持，那也是可以的。重点是要有多元化的观点。只有当言论自由包括你不喜欢的观点或内容时，它才是相关的。否则你就没有言论自由。对于那些主张审查制度的人，我想说，如果你成功了，那么很快审查制度就会结束你的时代。
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I agree. I mean, that's your free speech definition, which you said. But I'm just curious as to the, on the unregrettable part, what type of conversation you're trying to achieve and whether that's something that is acceptable but maybe not where you want the broader conversation to go.
我同意。我的意思是，那是你所说的自由言论定义。但是我只是好奇在非遗憾的部分，你试图实现怎样的对话，以及这是否是可以接受的，也许并不是你想要更广泛的对话的方向。
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Well, I'm an energy firefight that, you know, some of my concerns about source are that he's funded a very large number of small but influential races around the country, especially with theistic district attorneys. You know, we founded the, for example, the LA and San Francisco district attorney races with the Chess Bodine and the guy who I always wanted to call him Gaston from the beauty of the beast, but I didn't use Gaston. And the, basically, he's, he's, he's, of course, a large number of D.A.s. to be elected who are very easy on crime and will often fuse refusal to prosecute. So you're basically trying to make a deeper point with that short?
嗯，我是一名能源灭火队员，我的担忧是有关资助者的问题。他在全国范围内资助了许多小型却有影响力的竞选，特别是在具有神论色彩的地区检察官的竞选方面。比如，我们资助了洛杉矶和旧金山的地方检察官竞选，与Chess Bodine和一个我一直想称之为美女与野兽中的Gaston的家伙。他基本上资助了大量很容易对罪犯进行宽大处理并拒绝起诉行为的选举。所以你的短语言实际上是想表达更深层次的观点吗？
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Yes. Can I just move on quickly to, because I don't want to go too far down that, that rabbit hole, because that debate has played out on Twitter a bit, is, you know, are you back near profitability now? Twitter is not quite there, but we, we're not like, you know, when I, when I first, when I actually, I'm just going to close, I'd say it, it's an allegace to being teleported into a plane that's plunging to the ground with its engines on fire and the controls don't work. So it's comforting to say the least.
好的。我想快速转移话题，因为我不想走得太深，那个问题在Twitter上已经讨论过了。你们现在靠近盈利了吗？Twitter还没有达到那个程度，但我们已经不像之前那样糟糕了，我第一次接手时，感觉像是被传送到一架冒着火焰的飞机上，控制台也失灵了。所以至少现在让人感到安慰。
Now, we have to do some pretty heavy handed, plus cutting it, not many healthy, but we're at this point we're training towards if we get lucky, we might be casual, casual, casual positive next month, but it remains to be seen. And is the staffing the level you now want it, or are you going to start taking it back up again from this? It's gone from, I think, 8,000 to about 1,500 or something like that. That's the correct, yeah. I think there's, you know, there's definitely, we're all going to start adding people to the company, and we have started adding some number of people to the company. But it's still a lot of change to happen, so, but I think 1,500 is probably a reasonable number.
现在我们需要采取一些比较严厉的措施，包括进行一些裁员。虽然可能会有些不健康的情况出现，但我们现在正在朝着有可能在下个月变得更加轻松、自然、积极的方向进行培训，但这还有待观察。你们现在的员工配备水平满足你们的需求吗？还是你们要从现在开始重新增加人员？从我记得的情况来看，员工数量从8000人左右减少到了1500人左右。是的，确实是这样的。我们肯定会开始增加公司的员工数量，而我们已经开始增加一些人员。但还有很多变化要发生，所以我认为1500人可能是一个合理的数字。
And does this show what you can do in a big tech company in terms of cost reduction? I mean, when you look around other big tech companies in Silicon Valley, would you say from your experience that there's room for much more significant change at those as well? Yeah, I think Twitter may be somewhat of an outlier in that there were a lot of people doing things that didn't seem to have a lot of value. And that's, I think that's true probably most Silicon Valley companies, maybe not to the degree to which it was a Twitter, but it's still, yeah. And there's potential for significant cuts, I think, out of the companies without affecting their productivity, back increasing their productivity. So, you know, in any given company, there are people who help move things forward and people who sort of try to sign the breaks on Twitter was in a situation where you have a meeting of 10 people, you know, and one person with an accelerator nine, nine with a set of breaks. So, you didn't go very far. And so now we're going home about releasing functionality, even with a little bit of risk to site stability, so long as it's not too serious. And I think those points probably fair to say we've introduced more functionality in the last six months than Twitter has in the last six years.
这是否展示了在大型科技公司中你能在成本削减方面做些什么？我的意思是，当你看看硅谷其他大型科技公司时，从你的经验来看，你会说还有更多的机会进行更重大的变革吗？是的，我觉得Twitter可能是一个略有偏差的例子，在那里有很多人在做一些似乎没有太大价值的事情。我认为这可能适用于大多数硅谷公司，也许不像Twitter那样程度严重，但仍然如此。我认为在许多公司中有潜力进行重大的削减，而不会影响它们的生产力，反而会提高生产力。因此，在任何一家公司中，都有推动事物前进的人和试图打刹车的人。Twitter的情况是，在一个有10个人的会议中，一个人负责加速器，而九个人则负责刹车。所以，它并没有走得很远。所以现在我们正在谈论发布一些具有一定风险的功能，即使对网站稳定性风险不大。我认为这些观点可能公正地说，我们在过去六个月中推出的功能比Twitter在过去六年中推出的还要多。
And in terms of outages, there were some outages early on. Are you confident things are stable now? Well, outages are not unusual. Instagram recently had an outage, for example, which was a Twitter on Twitter. Ironically. So, we've had outages, but not massive ones, and they've generally been brief and limited in scope.
在停机方面，早期确实发生了一些停机事件。你现在对事情的稳定有信心吗？嗯，停机事件并不罕见。例如，Instagram最近曾经发生过停机事件，这在Twitter上成为了一个话题。具有讽刺意味的是，我们也发生了停机事件，但是不是大规模的，而且通常是短暂的，而且范围有限。
Do you regret buying it? You tried to get out of it, or you know how happy you bought it? Well, it was well that ends well. Is it ended well yet? Or we still got to wait and see? I think we're on the hopefully on the comeback arc. So, I mean, one of the things you have talked about, you bought it for $44 billion, you've talked about it one day being worth $250, I think, in internal meetings. Can you just talk about how you get there? What is the bigger vision? I mean, you want to bring back advertisers now. And are they coming back, by the way? Yeah. Yeah. Can you give any idea of the scale of the comeback in terms of who you lost and who's coming back? Well, I think it'll be very significant. So, the advertising agencies, this point of all, lifted their warnings on Twitter. So, appreciate the fact that Boobam, for example, removed their concern label over Twitter, which is a very big deal. And so, I think at this point, I expect almost all advertisers to do so. We've also done a lot more to make the advertising more relevant to users. Things that are more likely to be interested in buying. Sounds obvious, but. That's what doesn't still happen. Sounds super obvious.
你后悔购买它了吗？你曾试图退出，或者你知道你购买它后有多开心？好的结局总是令人欣慰。它已经有一个好结局了吗？还是我们还要等待并观察呢？我认为我们现在有望回归了。你曾经提到，你以440亿美元的价格购买了它，并在内部会议上谈到了有朝一日它会价值250美元。你能说一下怎么实现这个目标吗？你的更大愿景是什么？你现在想让广告商回来。他们回来了吗？你能透露一下失去的广告商和回归的广告商的规模吗？嗯，我认为这将非常重要。目前，广告代理商已经取消了对Twitter的警告。比如，Boobam取消了对Twitter的关注标签，这是一个非常重要的事情。因此，我认为几乎所有的广告商都会回来的。我们还做了更多的工作，让广告更相关、更能吸引用户购买。这听起来很显然，但并不总是这样。
I mean, just basic stuff. Like, if you do a search on Twitter previously, the search banner ad did not take the search terms into account, which is pretty insane. So, just show random ad. Where's obviously show an ad that is, you know, matches your search. Sounds worth doing. So, just quickly, what is, you've talked about the sort of single app that does messaging and does finance and other things. Yeah. I mean, can you just enlarge a little bit on sort of how you get there and why America wants that? Well, obviously it would be up to people to decide if they want it. It's like, do we make something that is useful enough that you want to use it more frequently? Great. That's our goal. So, we're not going to do anything to stop people leaving the app. We'll try to track them in the app, but it's provided enough compiling functionality that over time. People's usage of the platform grows.
我的意思是，只是基本的东西。比如，如果你之前在Twitter上进行搜索，搜索横幅广告不会考虑搜索词，这相当疯狂。所以，只显示随机广告。如果有一个广告可以匹配你的搜索结果，那么显然要显示这样的广告。听起来值得做。那么，你之前提到了一个单一应用程序，可以进行消息传递、财务管理和其他方面的功能。是的。你可以稍微详细一些，关于你们如何实现和为什么美国需要这个。嗯，显然这取决于人们是否想要使用它。就像，我们是否要制作一个足够有用的东西，让你更频繁地使用它？太好了，这是我们的目标。所以，我们不会采取任何行动阻止人们离开应用程序。我们会试图跟踪他们在应用程序中的使用情况，但是随着时间的推移，提供足够的编译功能。人们对这个平台的使用会增长。
So, in 10 years time, is advertising still going to be dominant on Twitter? I think advertising always play a role. At some point, it may not play the largest role, but it will play the largest role for at least a few years to come.
在未来10年，推特上的广告仍然会占主导地位吗？我认为广告始终会发挥作用。在某个时候，它可能不会起到最大的作用，但在未来几年，它至少仍将占据最重要的地位。
So, I want to do a quick, quick far round of questions. Just imagine that you're late at night, you're sitting there, tweeting a few rapid far responses to stuff. And I'm just going to ask you a few questions. If you can just give me short answers.
所以，我想快速进行一轮问题。想象一下你在深夜，坐在那里，快速地回复一些推文。我只想问你几个问题。如果你能给我简短的答案，那就好了。
No, no, I want to go on to AI and talk a little bit about some of the deeper points that you started making earlier.
不，不，我想继续谈AI，并谈一下你之前提到的一些更深入的观点。
意思是说，对AI（人工智能）方面的讨论需要更深入的思考和探讨。
So, first one, will Twitter be public again in five years? I don't know. Okay.
首先，推特五年后会重新上市吗？我不知道。
Do you think the HQ will still be in San Francisco? I'm sorry. Okay, not good so far. Let's try a couple more.
您认为总部仍将设在旧金山吗？很抱歉，目前情况不太好。让我们再试几个问题。
Which decade are we going to crack artificial general intelligence? I think this one. This one. Okay. So, it's that soon.
我们将在哪个十年破解人工通用智能？我认为是这一个十年。这一个十年。好的。这么快就要实现了。
意思是，对于实现人工通用智能的时间点，讲话者相信是在当前这个十年。并且感到此时已经接近实现了。
Are you going to take a SpaceX trip yourself? I will at some point. Yeah. Not sure why, but I should be right.
你打算进行一次 SpaceX 的旅行吗？我会在某个时候这样做。是的。我不确定为什么，但我应该没问题的。
Which is the most exciting country to build a Tesla plant in right now? Well, we did make an announcement that Mexico would be our next location outside the US and picture sight and everything. So, there's that. And then we'll probably pick another location towards the end of this year. Is India interesting? Absolutely.
目前在哪个国家建造特斯拉工厂最令人兴奋呢？嗯，我们已经宣布墨西哥将是我们在美国以外的下一个地点，能够提供美丽的景色和一切所需。所以就是这样。然后我们可能会在今年年底挑选另一个地点。印度是有吸引力的吗？当然。
Are you still a fan of crypto? Well, I mean, I'm not advising anyone to buy crypto or bet the firm on, you know, dogecoin or any kind of bull. Okay. Don't quit my dogecoin. Might have been thinking, maybe you should have, but let me advise you that would be on it. Have some noise. Okay. It don't square as my sort of favorite cryptocurrency because it has the best humor and has dogs. I did, however, look at the price of it yesterday. It's lower than it was, I think. Well, I don't know. Maybe, you know, it's like, if anyone has saying that the most ironic explanation is the most likely.
你还是加密货币的粉丝吗？我不是建议任何人购买加密货币或大赌特赌哪怕是像狗狗币这样的牛市。好的，别卖掉我的狗狗币。你或许在想，也许应该卖掉，但是让我给你一个建议，留着也不错。这样可以引起一些骚动。狗狗币不是我最喜欢的虚拟货币，但是它拥有最棒的幽默元素和可爱的狗狗图案。昨天我查看了一下它的价格，好像比之前还低了。嗯，我不知道。也许像人们常说的那样，最具讽刺意味的解释往往是最可能的。
And the most ironic outcome for currency would be that the thing that was made as a joke to make fun of crypto currencies. Most ironic outcome would become that it becomes the global currency. Okay. We'll wait and see.
最具讽刺意味的结果可能是，最初作为一个笑话来嘲笑加密货币的东西，最终成为全球通用货币。好的，我们拭目以待。
Final one. Can you rank the US and China on their development of AI each out of 10? I mean, the US very much has the most advanced AI. So this is, you see, like, China is close behind, certainly, and has the resources to scale and to optimize. The biggest single advances in AI still come from the US and Europe. But, um, all right. So it's hard to give an exact number of score. It's more like, but there's a big gap still. There is a gap. That gap looks like it's on the order of 12 months. Right. Fish. Right.
最后一个问题。您能否给美国和中国分别评个10分，来看看它们在人工智能发展方面的情况？我的意思是，美国确实拥有最先进的人工智能技术。所以，你可以看出来，中国紧随其后，并且拥有大量的资源来进行规模化和优化。虽然目前，人工智能方面的最大进展仍然来自于美国和欧洲。但是，很难给出具体的评分。更像是，存在着一定的差距。这个差距看起来大约是12个月左右。
A narrowing or expanding? It's hard to tell. I suspect it will narrow to some degree.
是缩小还是扩张？很难说。我认为它会在一定程度上变窄。
Can you talk a little bit about you've created a new AI company yourself. Obviously, there's a huge amount of energy and activity in this space. Or at least it's been talked about. I mean, what do you want to do yourself in this space beyond Tesla and the stuff you talked about earlier? What is that new thing?
您能谈谈您自己创建了一个新的人工智能公司的事情吗？显然，这个领域正在进行大量的能源和活动。或者至少已经有人谈论过。我的意思是，除了特斯拉和您之前谈到的那些东西，您自己想在这个领域做些什么？那个新的东西是什么？
Well, I think there should be a significant third horse in the race here. You've got Open AI and Microsoft, Google DeepMind, and probably there should be a third horse in the race. So, or in that soon. But is it something that will interact with the data of Twitter and the capability of Tesla? Is it something that tries to bring what you've talked about earlier in terms of capability together and become that third player? Is that what you're talking about? It's a summary, I don't want to jump the gun here on announcements. But the opening AI has a relationship with Microsoft that seems to work fairly well. So it's possible that XAI and Twitter and Tesla would have something similar. It's possible.
我认为在这场比赛中应该有一个显著的第三方。你有Open AI和Microsoft、Google DeepMind，可能应该有第三个竞争者。所以，或者很快就会有。但它是否会与Twitter的数据和特斯拉的能力进行交互？它是否试图把你之前提到的能力集中起来，成为第三方玩家？这是一个摘要，我不想过早地宣布。但是，Open AI与Microsoft的关系似乎相当不错。所以，XAI、Twitter和特斯拉也可能有类似的关系。这是有可能的。
You talked about the importance of regulation, and you call for this moratorium. I mean, the history of regulating tech has been checkered. It's been very hard for regulators to keep up with tech, let alone get ahead of it. What do you think actually needs to happen that practically could in this space to try to change that? Because obviously the history of this is not encouraging.
您谈到了监管的重要性，并呼吁实行这种暂停法令。然而，科技监管的历史并不顺利，监管机构很难跟上科技的步伐，更不用说领先于它。在这个领域中，您认为实际需要发生什么才能改变这种状况？因为显然，这方面的历史并不令人鼓舞。
I mean, I think there should be, you know, I've been pushing hard for a long time. I met with a number of senior senators and Congress, people in Congress and the White House, to advocate for AI regulation. Starting with an inside committee that is formed of independent parties as well as perhaps participants from the leaders in industry. And that oversight committee gains, or should say, get that inside committee gains insight into what various companies are up to.
我的意思是，我认为应该有一个...你知道的...我已经努力推动很久了。我与许多资深参议员、国会议员和白宫官员会面，倡导AI监管。首先是成立一个内部委员会，由独立方和行业领袖的参与者组成。这个监管委员会能够获取内部委员会对各个公司正在做什么的洞察力。
And to the degree that there's competitive dynamics there, you can obviously, you would request a board members who are perhaps have conflicts. But anyway, you figure out some sort of regulatory board and they start off getting insight and then have proposed rulemaking. And then that, you know, we'll get comments that are on by industry.
如果存在竞争动态，你显然会要求董事会成员拥有冲突。但无论如何，你需要确定某种监管委员会，并开始获得洞察力和提出规则。随后，我们将获得产业评论。
And then hopefully we have some sort of oversight rules that improve safety just as we do with craft with the FAA and spacecraft. And cars with that and food and drugs with the food drug administration. Right. And how would that work in such a global thing as we're talking about where AI and the relative advance between countries is going to be very, very important? Is that something that is globalizable?
希望我们能采取某种监管规则，就像FAA和宇宙飞船对飞行器所做的那样，以及食品药品管理局对食品和药品所做的那样，从而提高安全性。对的，那在我们正在讨论的这样一个全球性的事情中，这个规则将如何运作？人工智能和各国之间的相对进步将非常重要，这是否是可全球化的？
Is that? Well, really the key question is, we'll try to, you know, cooperate with the West. That remains to be seen. But I would still advocate like some degree of oversight. I mean, we have regulatory oversight of aircraft, for example, and yet the US is still very much doing great on the aircraft. And there's been any any of those. So just because you have, you know, FAA regulation doesn't mean that it's necessarily slowed down very much.
这是什么意思呢？其实，核心问题是我们将尝试与西方国家合作，这还有待观察。但我仍然认为需要一定程度的监管。例如，我们对飞机进行监管，但美国的飞机业仍然很发达，且没有出现什么问题。所以仅仅因为有 FAA 的监管，并不意味着它会显著地减缓发展。
So you have to be that the AI changes today, lock in the tech giants, the Microsofts and the Googles of this world. Does it also, is there also a scenario where it actually helps to bring in new players and change that dynamic or is that a much more unlikely outcome? Well, there are a lot of AI startups. The thing that's becoming tricky is that in order of you really need three things to compete. You need talent talented people. You need a lot of compute expensive compute and you need access to data. So whoever's got, whoever's succeeding on those three will win.
那么你必须要明白人工智能今天的变化，锁定科技巨头，如今的微软和谷歌。它是否也存在一种情况，实际上有助于引入新的参与者并改变这种动态，或者这是一个更不太可能的结果？好吧，有很多人工智能初创公司。正在变得棘手的是，为了与竞争者展开竞争，你需要三样东西。你需要有天赋的人。你需要大量的昂贵计算资源，你需要接触数据。因此，谁拥有这三者中的胜者，谁就会成功。
So now that the cost of computers got an astronomical. So it's now, you know, sort of minimum anti, I would say minimum would be 250 million dollars of silver hardware minimum. That's like just to relevant anyway. So the startups are more likely to piggyback off what the others are doing rather than compete directly themselves is what you're saying. Yeah, to train a big model. I mean, to train a model that I'll probably GVT five size.
现在计算机的成本已经变得像天文数字一样高昂。我会说最低的银硬件成本至少为2.5亿美元。这只是相对而言。你的意思是创业公司更有可能依靠其他公司的成果而不是直接竞争。对于训练一个大模型，我指的是可能达到5倍于GVT的模型。
I wouldn't respite if they use at least 30,000, maybe 50,000 each 100, which are the latest GPUs, it's not quite the right word, but the latest technology from Nvidia. So, and then you need to run inference as well. So it's a lot of the GPUs are. This point is considerably harder to get than drugs. Actually, that's not really not a high bar in services go. You can tell us more about that later, but yeah, it's okay.
如果他们使用至少30,000，甚至可能是50,000最新的显卡，也就是Nvidia的最新技术，我也不会暂停。然后还需要进行推断运算。因此，需要很多显卡。这一点比获得毒品要困难得多。实际上，在服务方面，这并不算太高的门槛。你可以稍后告诉我们更多，但没关系的。
So, a couple of things I just wanted to go into on AI, which I love your perspective on. What does it mean for society in terms of, is this going to embed wealth and power in a very small subset and create a big widening of inequality? Is it going to democratize and create the opposite? What is your sense of where this heads? Well, in terms of access to goods and services, I think AI will be ushering in the age of abundance, assuming that we're in a benign AI scenario.
我想谈谈人工智能方面的一些问题，我很喜欢你的观点。这对社会意味着什么，它会将财富和权力嵌入到极少数人中，导致不平等加剧吗？它会实现民主化并产生相反的效果吗？你认为这会走向哪里？讨论到商品和服务的获取方面，我认为如果我们处于一种良性的人工智能情境下，AI将开启丰盈时代。
I think the AI will be able to make goods and services very inexpensively. So, in anything that is a product or service, where there's not artificial scarcity created, such as like, I want to live exactly in this neighborhood houses. It's like, okay, well, there's only 100 houses there. So, you know, that that would still have scarcity or a unique artwork would have scarcity. But, anything that does not have scarcity that we deliberately designed to be scarce will be plentiful for everyone in a benign scenario.
我认为人工智能将能够以非常便宜的价格生产商品和服务。因此，在任何产品或服务中，只要没有人为制造人工的稀缺性，比如像我想住在这个社区的房子里。那么，好吧，那里只有100个房子。所以，你知道，那仍然会有稀缺性，或者是独特的艺术品会有稀缺性。但是，我们故意设计为稀缺的任何东西，在良性的情况下都将是人人共享的丰富可得的。
And in the unburdened scenario? Well, there's a wide range of. But what's the thing that you're most worried about when you look at. when you've been talking for years about the need for regulation? What is the scenario that really keeps you up at night? Well, I don't think the AI is going to try to destroy all humanity, but it might put us under strict controls. And there's not a non-zero chance of it going to a manager. It's not 0%.
在没有负担的情况下呢？呃，这里有很多可能性。但是当你已经讨论了多年关于需要监管的必要性时，你最担心的是什么？什么情况真正让你夜不能寐？我觉得人工智能不会试图摧毁全人类，但它可能会使我们受到严格的控制。也有可能会转向管理者，并非不可能发生，可能性并不为0。
I think it's a small likelihood of not any humanity, but it's not 0. We wanted that probability to be as close to 0 as possible. And then, like I said, the AI assuming control for the safety of all the humans, and taking over all the computing systems and weapon systems of Earth, and effectively being like some sort of uber and Annie. But isn't another scenario. If you say that, let's say you're a most world contestant hypothetically. It's unlikely. Let's face it.
我认为没有人类的可能性很小，但不是零。我们希望这种可能性尽可能地接近于零。然后，就像我说的那样，人工智能控制着所有人类的安全，并接管地球上所有的计算系统和武器系统，像某种超级无敌的领袖。但还有另一种情况。假设你是一个最有可能获得世界冠军的人。这不太可能，面对现实吧。
And you say, what do you want? I want world peace. And it's like, okay, well, one way to achieve world peace is to take all the weapons away from the humans so they can no longer use them. And to punish any humans that engage in extraterritorial activity. But isn't the more likely nasty outcome that rather than AI taking over and being the ultimate nanny that keeps us all doing stuff that is super safe, and it wants us to, that actually somebody nefariously harnesses that power to achieve societal control, stroke, military superiority. And that actually some country around the world decides to use it in a different way. Yes, that's what I mean by AI uses as a weapon.
你问我想要什么？我想要世界和平。实现世界和平的一种途径是夺走人类手中的所有武器，使他们无法再使用它们，并惩罚任何从事跨境活动的人类。但更有可能的恶劣结果是，AI并不是终极保姆，不仅可以促进我们做超级安全的事情，而且可能会被人利用来实现社会控制或军事优势。而且实际上，全球某个国家可能会以不同的方式使用它。是的，这就是我所说的AI作为武器的用途。
And the pen is mighty than swords. So one of the first places where to be careful of AI being used is in social media to manipulate public opinion. So the reason that Twitter is going to a primarily subscriber based system is because it is dramatically harder to create. So it's like, it's like, it's like 10,000 times hotter to create an account that has a verified number from a credible carrier that has a credit card and that pays us will amount of money for month. And have those credit cards and phone numbers be highly distributed, not clustered is incredibly difficult. So whereas in the past, someone could create a million fake accounts for penny a piece and then manipulate have something appear to be very, very much liked by the public when it fact it is not or promoted and retweeted when it fact it is not. And it's not real essentially game the system.
笔强过剑。因此，我们应该特别注意人工智能在社交媒体上被用于操纵舆论的情况。推特转向主要订阅制的原因是因为它变得非常难以创建假账号。要创建一个可信的、由可信承运人认证的带有信用卡并每月支付我们一定金额的账户是非常困难的，这些信用卡和电话号码必须高度分散而非聚集。而过去，人们可以花一分钱创建一百万个假账号，然后操纵一个看起来很受公众欢迎的东西，实际上并非如此，或者将其推广和转发，实际上并非如此。这本质上是操纵系统，虚假不真实。
So the bias towards a subscription based verification I think is very powerful and that really you won't be able to trust any social media company that does not do this because it will simply be overrun with watts to such an extreme degree. So I think it back to where we started, if you look at the election that's coming up, how big a role will this big shift in AI capability over the last few months which will obviously continue through the next year, how big an impact is this going to play do you think in the messaging and the way that people get told the different pitches of the candidates? I think that's something we need to go and look out for in a big way is to make sure that this we're minimizing the impact of AI manipulation. We're very, very much taking it take that seriously at Xx Twitter, you know, Xx-twitter. And I think we're putting in place all of the protections to minimize and certainly detect when we see large scale manipulation of the system. But beyond Twitter, are you worried about this for the election in general? Yeah. There probably will be attempts to use AI to manipulate the public and some will be successful. And if not this election for sure the next one.
因此，我认为对订阅验证的偏见非常强大，如果社交媒体公司不这样做，你根本无法信任它，因为它将被过度利用。所以我认为回到了我们开始的地方，如果你看看即将到来的选举，过去几个月人工智能能力的这个巨大变化将显然会在明年继续，你认为这将对候选人消息推送和人们得到不同候选人信息的方式产生多大影响？我认为这是我们需要非常注意和警惕的事情，以确保我们最大限度地减少人工智能操纵的影响。我们在Xx Twitter非常重视这一点，并正在采取一切保护措施来最小化和检测系统的大规模操纵。但是除了Twitter，你是否担心选举中可能出现人工智能的操纵？是的。可能会有人试图使用人工智能来操纵公众，有些会成功。如果不是这次选举肯定也会在下次选举中出现。
Okay, I've got two more questions on AI. If you've got the time and then just a little bit on China and Tesla if that's okay. The first thing is we talk a lot in terms of AI about the next five to ten years and what the impact is going to be on jobs and some of these things. If you look out on a much longer timeframe given the speed and scale of the change and you look to your grandkids and great grandkids, can you just give us a sense of what is going to be like to be human? How much is this going to change the fundamental nature of how we operate as a race at this point? That's going to change a lot.
好的，我还有两个关于人工智能的问题。如果你有时间的话，还有一点关于中国和特斯拉。首先，我们在AI方面经常谈论未来五到十年的影响，包括影响就业等。如果你考虑到更长远的时间，考虑到变化的速度和规模，想象一下你的孙子和曾孙子，你能否给我们一个感觉，作为人类，未来会发生什么变化？这将会带来很大的变化。
I think you go further on the future. I mean, there will be everything will be automatic. I mean, there will be household robots that you can fully talk to. And so there are people that can help you out the house, will be a companion or whatever case may be. There will be human robots throughout factories. And also also be old automatic. And anything that we're intelligent intelligence can be applied. Even modern intelligence will be automated. So they say like ten, twenty years from now. And we will be connected to that technology through a neural link type. Maybe. Is that where this in your view? Obviously.
我认为你会在未来有更远大的发展。我的意思是，未来所有事情都将自动化。我是说，家庭机器人将完全能够与你交流。这样就有人可以帮忙打理家务，成为你的伙伴或者其他任何情况。工厂中将会有人工智能机器人。一切都将变得自动化。凡是智能能够应用的地方都将智能自动化。甚至现代的智能也将被自动化。所以他们说，十年、二十年后的未来，我们将通过神经纽带连接到这种技术上。也许是这样吧。你认为呢？显然是的。
Is that where this heads? Well, a high band with interface from cortex to the sort of computing or AI tertiary layer, which already exists. You know, it's just that we don't have a high band with connection. We're out. Limit system, which is our foundational element that sort of our instincts and desires and whatnot. They're not cortex and top of that, which is I was thinking quite about brain. And tertiary digital layer, which is currently in the phone, about phones and computers and laptops and whatnot and all the applications. The constraint on better. Better merging or. The constraints on on on. Having human interests and machine interests be aligned is the bad with especially the output. So if you select at what speed can you output to a computer to use voice or fingers, which will be very slowly. So we're talking about maybe ten bits per second or some fairly small. Data rate. So. With with the neural link, you can increase that by, you know, increase that by a million probably. So everything just speeds up. Yeah. Yeah.
这是我们的前进方向吗？嗯，这是一个高频带，接口来自皮层至计算或人工智能第三层，它已经存在。你知道，我们只是没有高频带连接。我们处于局限系统之外，这是我们的基础要素，它是我们的本能和欲望等方面的来源。它们不是皮层和大脑的顶层，我指的是我对大脑的想象。第三层数字层目前在手机、电脑、笔记本电脑等设备中，以及所有应用程序。对更好的合并或更好的融合的限制在于，人类利益和机器利益的一致性，尤其是输出方面的问题。如果你选择使用语音或手指输出数据给电脑，速度将非常缓慢，输出的数据速率可能只有每秒10位或更少。因此，通过神经链接，你可以将输出速度提高一百万倍，所以一切都会变得更快。是的，没错。
I mean, this is obviously an inter-relzwie of benign scenario because there's a question of not just, let's say it's a benign scenario. How do we even appreciate or understand what the computers are doing? How do we go, how do we go along for the right? And if we have a better, if you have a brain machine interface that's, I don't know, a million times faster, then. We'll go along for the right a lot better. Then interfacing with a phone using two slow moving midsticks. If you put it like that.
我的意思是，这显然是一个和善的情境，因为不仅仅是一个和善的情境，还有一个问题，如何理解计算机究竟在做什么？我们应该如何跟上计算机的步伐？如果我们有一个百万倍更快的脑机接口，我们就会更好地跟得上计算机的步伐。相比使用两个缓慢移动的手柄与手机接口，我们会跟得上得多。如果你这样说的话。
And in terms of you have a lot of kids, many in this room have kids. What do they need to, what skills do they need to have? What are the three skills that you think are most important for them that you're trying to give them to be prepared and well positioned for this new world? Well, I think it's important to have a broad range of understanding in many different subjects. So I think a general knowledge is important. So you at least have some clue of what you don't know in different areas. And then go deep in areas where your child is as a strong interest in ability. So finding that overlap of where is my child interested in this and has some ability to be successful. Then you know, finding, if you can find that in diagram overlap, then obviously encouraging that is a good thing. And we are obviously headed to a high tech world. So some basic understanding of computers and software and artificial intelligence is probably a good idea.
在你有很多孩子的情况下，这个房间里很多人也有孩子。他们需要什么，他们需要掌握哪些技能？你认为对他们最重要的三项技能是什么，你正在努力让他们为这个新世界做好准备并处于良好的位置？ 我认为具备广泛的知识理解对于不同的学科都很重要。因此，我认为具备一般性的知识很重要，这样你可以至少知道你在不同领域的盲区。然后深入研究你的孩子感兴趣且具备能力的领域。找到那个重叠点，也就是孩子对什么感兴趣并且有能力在这方面成功的领域。然后显然鼓励孩子在这方面发展是一件好事。我们显然正走向高科技世界。因此，一些基本的计算机和软件及人工智能的了解可能是一个好主意。
But the actual broad thrust of, I mean, jobs will change, but it'll be more AI enabling and making it better and easier rather than wholesale complete change of the skills you need. It's a bit of a time frame talking about here. So if you say like over 20 or 30 year timeframe, I think things will be transformed beyond belief. You probably want to recognize society in 30 years. Like I do think we're fairly close. You asked me about artificial general intelligence. I think we're perhaps only three years, maybe six years away from it. This decade. So in fact, arguably we are on the event horizon of the black hole that is.
实际的主要趋势是，工作将会发生改变，但更多的是通过人工智能的帮助来使工作变得更好更容易，而不是需要完全变更所需的技能。这是一个时间框架的问题。如果你说超过20或30年的时间框架，我认为事情将会变得难以置信。你可能会在30年后看到一个完全不同的社会，我认为我们已经非常接近了。你问我关于通用人工智能的问题，我认为我们也许只需要三年或六年的时间。这个十年将会很重要。因此，可以说我们已经站在黑洞的事件视界上了。
So I'm going to ask one final question. I'm going to see if you've got two minutes to take a couple of questions from the floor. And it comes back to China, which you talked about a little bit. You have a very big business in China in Tesla. And obviously, you're on that geopolitical fault line that's getting potentially interesting. To what extent is this affecting your decision making around sort of how you put assets and stuff on the ground and how concerned are you about that as a business person and a lot of people in this room have business in China. And I think it's about that getting very, very difficult for a Western business.
我想要问最后一个问题。我想要知道你是否有时间花两分钟来回答一些来自现场的问题。这个问题与中国有关，你之前也提到过。你在中国拥有一个非常大的特斯拉业务。而且，你正处于一个可能变得有趣的地缘政治分界线上。在你决策如何将资产放在地面上方面，这是否对你产生了影响？作为一个商人，你有多担心这个问题？这个问题对这个房间里很多在中国做生意的人来说，可能变得非常非常困难。
Well, there is fundamentally an issue that's coming to a head with Taiwan. And it's unclear when exactly Bush will come to shove, but it seems that there's a good chance Bush will come to shove. And I think that direction. I'd like to think what would that would happen. The results would be before the global company would be absolutely catastrophic. But China has been very clear about its goals on China and sort of including Taiwan as part of China. One does not need to read between the lines, one can simply read the lines. They're very clear. And they're not getting. And is the biggest concern, despite the prospect of conflict itself.
嗯，基本上台湾的问题已经到了紧要关头。虽然不清楚具体的时间，但很可能会出现紧急情况。我认为这个方向很危险，如果出现这种情况，全球公司将遭受毁灭性的影响。但是中国已经非常清楚地表明了其目标，包括将台湾作为中国的一部分。不用深入解读，只需看一下字面意思，就可以看出来了。这是最大的担忧，尽管冲突本身也是一个问题。
Obviously a lot of the world's high end chips come out of Taiwan. I mean, how catastrophic would that be if that was cut off? Well, even while it comes out of China.
很明显，世界上很多高端芯片都产自台湾。如果这被中断了，会有多么灾难性的影响啊？不过，即使它是从中国生产出来的。
So, China is a lot so much of the world's heavy lifting on manufacturing, especially if the manufacturing is simply hard work and not particularly glamorous. It just does an immense amount of hard work that people mostly will have an idea how much hard work they do.
中国在制造业方面担负了全球许多沉重的负担，尤其是那些不那么光彩但需要大量劳动力的制造业。中国付出了巨大的努力，很多人不太了解这些繁重的工作量。
So, we cut off from Taiwan, and watch less of it, considering they've been cut off from China. Now, China would reciprocally suffer, of course. So, I would say that the economies of China and Taiwan are like conjoint wins with the Western economy, with the rest of the world.
所以我们与台湾切断联系并减少对它的关注，考虑到他们已经被中国切断了联系。现在，中国当然会遭受反击。因此，我认为中国和台湾的经济就像与西方经济和世界其他地区的经济联合获胜一样。
So, China and the rest of the world being conjoint wins from an economic standpoint will mean that the separation is going to be dire indeed. So, China is a very important country that happens. I hope it does not happen. And there's no easy solution here. But if there's any path to diplomatic solution, we should really take that seriously.
因此，从经济角度来看，中国和世界其他国家的联合胜利意味着分裂将会非常可怕。因此，中国是一个非常重要的国家。我希望这种情况不会发生。然而，这里没有简单的解决方案。但是，如果有任何外交解决方案的路径，我们应该认真考虑。
Great. Do you have time to take a few questions from the floor, Elon?
太好了。埃隆，你有时间回答一些现场提问吗？
Sure. Does anybody have a question they'd like to pose? We'll go here and then here.
当然。有人想提问吗？我们先从这里开始，然后再到这里。
Thanks, Elon. Thanks for joining us. I'm the founder of a real estate business in Newcastle in the northeast of England. We export, manufacture and export more cars from the northeast than the whole of Italy. Would you let me build you a Tesla factory in the northeast of England? Thanks, the author.
谢谢，埃隆。感谢您加入我们。我是英格兰东北部纽卡斯尔一个房地产公司的创始人。我们从东北部出口、制造和出口的汽车比整个意大利还多。您能让我在英格兰东北部建造一个特斯拉工厂吗？感谢，作者。
So, I would certainly consider England for a future location of the Gigafactory. Thank you. I'll get you this. So, you will consider it. Are you actively considering it? We're not currently looking at many locations, but we will talk towards the end of this year. I'll send you some plans, okay?
所以，我肯定会考虑英格兰作为未来Gigafactory的位置。谢谢。我会帮你拿到这个。那么，你会考虑吗？你正在积极考虑吗？我们现在并没有在看很多地点，但我们会在年底时讨论。我会给你发送一些计划，好吗？
David, I hear, please. Thank you for your time. Fusion, lots of scientists say it could change the world. Planet is the sun, all life on this planet and on Mars depends on fusion, the sun itself.
大卫，我听到你了，请。感谢你的时间。许多科学家说，聚变技术可以改变世界。行星上的太阳以及火星上的所有生命都依赖于聚变，即太阳本身。
Can I ask you why a man of your brilliant brain resources and talent is not actually focusing on fusion, which is a game changer for society and rather than on Twitter, where there are many media, distant companies that can do it, and I would say it's almost in a trivial way.
我可以问一下您，您这么聪明、有才华，为什么不把精力放在核聚变这种能够改变社会的颠覆性技术上，而是花时间在 Twitter 上，那里有很多媒体和远在天边的公司。我敢说，那几乎是一种微不足道的事情。
Well, I think we already have a giant fusion reactor in the sky that's called the sun that shows up every day. So, what you always say, if you want to know what's standing in front of a fusion reactor, feels like just go out and stand in front of the sun. You know, just walk outside. That's what a giant fusion reactor feels like, because that's what the sun is. It converts about 4.5 million tons of mass to energy every second and requires no maintenance. It's amazing.
我认为我们已经有了一个巨大的太阳能聚变反应堆，每天都会出现在天空中。所以，你总是说，如果想知道站在聚变反应堆前面的感觉，只需走出去站在太阳前面就行了。你知道的，只需要走出去。这就是巨大的聚变反应堆的感觉，因为太阳就是这样。它每秒将大约4.5百万吨质量转化为能量，不需要维护。这太神奇了。
You don't have to refuel it, you don't have to maintain it, just there. So, my recommendation for fusion is solar power and batteries. And we can easily power all of us with just with photovoltaics and batteries. Not easy, but there's just a very clear path to do so. And numerical requires just work. Interesting.
你不需要加油，也不需要维护它，就在那里，因此，我的建议是使用太阳能和电池进行聚变。我们可以轻松地仅通过光伏和电池为我们所有人提供动力。虽然不容易，但是有一条非常清晰的路径可以实现。实现这个目标只需要努力和数字计算。很有趣。
I'm also a bit of wind and of nuclear vision. Geothermal, hydro, and whatnot. We'll take a couple more.
我也是一点风能和核能的支持者。地热、水电等等，我们还可以再多使用几个。
One here and then the lady at the back. Thank you. As you're considering exposure to China, and particularly in the EV space and with the battery supply chain, what's your process for evaluating political risk in the near and midterm?
请先前的那位和后排的女士谢谢。由于您正在考虑与中国的接触，特别是在电动汽车领域和电池供应链方面，您对于如何评估近期和中期的政治风险有什么流程或方法？
I guess I've just talked to my team. Read the news. I don't know. Assess the opinion on Twitter, I suppose. The very deep analysis in the editor from people that are at World Expo, it's on a particular subject. I don't know. I think we just we try to prepare for the worst.
我想我刚刚和我的团队谈过。读了新闻。我不知道。我想评估一下Twitter上的意见。编辑们从在世博会的人那里进行了深入的分析，它是关于一个特定的主题。我不知道。我认为我们只是试图为最坏的情况做准备。
Hope for the best. And make sure we have factories and geographically diversified regions of the world where the supply chain is as localized as possible. But this is important also for forced measure situations. So if there are earthquakes, wildfires, riots, revolutions, ice storms, heat waves, you name it.
希望万事顺利，同时确保我们拥有分布在世界各地的工厂和地理多样化的区域，以实现供应链尽可能本地化。但这对于强制措施情况也很重要。因此，如果有地震、野火、骚乱、革命、冰暴、热浪等等，我们也能做好准备。
I think I've seen it all this point. So you want to have you want to have a supply chain that does not inherit a forced measure from all of us. Because something that's going to happen somewhere, it's a big planet. So that's why I think it's important to have localized supply chains with factories and in many geographies.
我认为我已经见过了这一点。所以你想要拥有一条供应链，它不会从我们所有人那里继承强制措施。因为某些事情会在某个地方发生，这是一个巨大的星球。这就是为什么我认为有在许多地理位置上拥有本地化的供应链和工厂是重要的。
Last question from the lady at the back. Yep. You famously tweeted that you thought the population collapse was a much bigger risk to humanity than climate change. What do you think states, families, even companies can do to ensure that more of us want to have more children?
来自后排的女士的最后一个问题。是的，您曾经在推特上很有名地发表过帖子，认为人口崩溃是对人类的威胁比气候变化更大。您认为国家、家庭甚至公司可以做些什么来确保更多人希望生育更多子女?
Well, yeah, I mean, I think it's very telling if you look at the birth rates, which are just here publicly available. You can look at say the birth rate last year for every country available online. And you can look at the trend in birth rates. And it's just where the trend has been strongly downward. And that we've recently hit all time lows. So you think if you know, drink COVID, you know, what else you go to do?
嗯，我觉得如果你看一下出生率就能很清楚地看出来了。你可以在网上查看每个国家去年的出生率，并查看出生率的趋势。趋势明显下降，我们最近达到了历史新低。所以你会想，如果不是因为COVID，你还有什么事情可做呢？
You might as well have a kid. Actually, we had a big drop in birth rate during during COVID. I think we've had a big recent divorce as two. A lot of time with their significant other. So I think generally, simply changing people's mind about the goodness of having kids. It's like very important to have kids in order to continue civilization.
你不妨要个孩子。实际上，在COVID期间我们的出生率大幅下降。我认为我们最近也有很多离婚。很多时间都与他们的伴侣在一起。所以，我认为一般来说，只是改变人们对于拥有孩子的好处的看法就足够了。这是为了继续文明而必须要有孩子的非常重要的事情。
Sometimes it's viewed as kids of you as an imposition on the world. I don't think that's the case at all. Or that people sometimes think there are too many people in the world. That's certainly not the case. You can you can put all of the humans on earth on one floor in the city of New York. Yeah, we'd be uncomfortable, but just to you, the sense of the cross sexual area of Earth that is human is very tiny.
有时人们认为你们孩子是对这个世界的侵犯，但我并不认为是这样的。也有人认为世界人口过剩，但事实并非如此。你甚至可以把全球所有人塞进纽约一个楼层里。是的，我们会很不舒服，但是相对于地球这么广阔的跨性区域来说，人类所占的面积微不足道。
It just seems big if you're in a big city. But for the vast majority of the earth, if you're given a task of from a plane of dropping a bowling bowl and and you have to hit someone, you'd you'd miss almost never hit anyone. So one is that you very rarely go over a person in an aircraft. You fly from L.H. New York, the vast areas of land with no one at all.
如果你在一个大城市，它似乎很大。但对于地球上绝大多数人来说，如果你从飞机上扔一个保龄球并打中某人，你几乎不可能命中任何人。所以，一个人在飞机上很少会飞过一个人。从L.H.纽约飞行，有大片没有人的土地。
So anyway, I think we want to just generally have it be socially encouraged to have kids. I think certainly companies need to support employees that have kids. I think in terms of government incentives, there should be some, I think, tax breaks for having kids, you know, or make it financially not burdened some to have children.
无论如何，我认为我们希望社会能够普遍鼓励生育。我认为公司需要支持那些有孩子的员工。政府应该提供一些激励措施，例如税收减免，以鼓励人们生育，或者使有孩子的家庭在经济上不负担重担。
And it's always worth bearing in mind like autonomy aside, if someone doesn't have kids, what you're actually asking is that someone else's kids take care of you when you're old. And that doesn't seem like quite right, you know. Because that's what they'll be forced to do.
需要牢记的是，除了个人的自主权之外，如果一个人没有孩子，那么实际上在要求别人的孩子在你老去时照顾你。这似乎不太合适，因为他们会被迫这样做。
So I think, you know, one way or another, we need to solve this birth rate issue or civilization will go into nothing. If network AI comes in, it'll do all the jobs for us so we can handle a potentially lower population or what you're talking about. I think there will be robot nannies that are very competent, so that will help.
我认为，不管怎样，我们需要解决出生率问题，否则文明将走向灭亡。如果网络人工智能介入，它将为我们完成所有工作，这样我们就可以处理可能较低的人口或您所说的问题。我认为将会有非常能干的机器人保姆，这将有所帮助。
Thank you, Elon Musk. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you all very much for this evening. I hope you enjoyed it. And please join us for a drink next door and hopefully there'll be plenty from that to discuss. Thank you very much.
谢谢你，伊隆·马斯克。非常感谢你加入我们。非常感谢这个晚上里的所有人。希望你们享受了这个晚会。接下来请到隔壁喝一杯，希望能有充分的机会进行讨论。非常感谢。