Elon on Tesla's Risk in China / Farley on Tesla's Margins / FSD Beta Live for New Users ⚡️

Which is the most exciting country to build a Tesla plant in right now? Well, we did make an announcement that Mexico would be our next location outside the US and pick a site and everything. So, there's that and then we'll probably pick another location towards the end of this year. Is India interesting? Absolutely.

目前，在哪个国家建造特斯拉工厂最令人兴奋？我们已经宣布墨西哥将是我们在美国以外下一个选定的地点，并已经选定了一个场地等等。所以，这里有这件事，然后我们可能会在今年年底选择另一个位置。印度有意思吗？绝对有。

Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Lumis. First up today, we know Elon has guessed that the Cybertruck will do maybe 250 to 500,000 Cybertrucks per year once fully ramped. But is that a global figure? How global is the Cybertruck going to be? Still some unanswered questions.

欢迎来到Electrified，我是您的主持人Dylan Lumis。今天我们先来讨论一下，埃隆预计全面上市后，Cybertruck的年销售量可能会达到250-500,000辆。但这个数字是全球范围内的吗？Cybertruck将会走向全球吗？仍有一些未知问题。

Either way, we have a nice simple chart here from Sam Chorus at ARC Invest showing us the best-selling pickup trucks in the United States last year. So if Elon's guess becomes right, then that was a lot of Cybertruck somewhere between 3rd and 4th place on this list, if the numbers stayed the same for the top 3. In case you're new though, there's a Tesla effect which is just certain car buyers are either spending up to go from ordinarily spending a lower amount on a vehicle to get into a Tesla. And we're going to have a similar effect with people that would ordinarily never consider a pickup truck that are most likely going to buy a Cybertruck.

我们有一张由ARC Invest的Sam Chorus制作的漂亮简单的图表，显示了去年美国最畅销的皮卡车。无论如何，如果埃隆的猜测成为现实，那么在这个列表的第三或第四名肯定会有很多Cybertruck，如果前三名的数字保持不变的话。如果你还不清楚，有一种特殊现象叫特斯拉效应，就是某些汽车买家会增加预算去购买特斯拉而非一般价格较低的汽车。而现在我们将看到类似的效应，有些人平时从不考虑购买皮卡车，但现在他们很可能会购买Cybertruck。

Of course, Elon's guesstimate will be heavily reliant on the price of the Cybertruck, which hopefully we get sooner rather than later, so people waiting for this can make their plans. Speaking of Cybertruck, Elon said we're working hard to get Cybertruck into production. This was a tough product to design and even tougher to build, but it will be great.

当然，伊隆的猜测将严重依赖于Cybertruck的价格，希望我们能尽早了解，这样等待此车的人们就可以制定计划。说到Cybertruck，伊隆表示我们正在努力将其投入生产。这是一个难以设计甚至更难以制造的产品，但它将是伟大的。

And what do we have here? Jared's saying he just subscribed to the FSD subscription five days ago, and now he's in. What does this mean? Well, looking at the screenshots, we have FSD version 11.3.6 now on the 2023.12.10 branch. What this means is that new people are now again entering the FSD beta program.

我们这里是什么？杰里德说他五天前只是订阅了FSD订阅，并且现在他已经加入了。这是什么意思？从屏幕截图来看，我们现在在2023.12.10分支上有FSD 11.3.6版本。这意味着新的人现在又进入了FSD测试计划。

You may recall earlier this year, Nitsa ordered a recall for the FSD beta because it was breaking some local traffic laws. So Tesla then made some adjustments and released fixes to those problems in March. But at the time, the FSD program was not yet available to new beta subscribers. So after a few months of users just entering a queue for FSD beta, it looks like with this latest release on an updated software branch, now new users can actually get the FSD beta.

你可能还记得今年早些时候，Nitsa下令召回FSD beta，因为它违反了一些当地的交通法规。所以特斯拉进行了一些调整，并在3月份发布了这些问题的修复程序。但当时，FSD程序还没有对新的beta订阅者开放。因此，经过几个月的用户排队FSD beta，似乎随着最新的更新软件分支的发布，现在新用户可以真正地获得FSD beta了。

You may recall on Friday, Elon tweeted 11.4.2 would be rolling out over the weekend. So some people were surprised that we now have an older version 11.3.6. That's actually going out to some of these new users. Sadly, I can't give you advice for which software branched to update from or even to unless it's this one exactly because with these rollouts, there are really never any guarantees. But what I can confirm is there are many users across social media now entering the FSD beta program for the first time, which is always a very exciting thing.

您可能还记得，Elon在上周五发布了一条推文，称11.4.2将在周末推出。所以一些人感到惊讶的是，我们现在却有了一个更旧的版本11.3.6，这实际上是提供给一些新用户的。不幸的是，我不能为您提供升级软件分支的建议，除非确切地是这个版本，因为在这些推出中，几乎没有任何保证。但我可以确认的是，现在有很多社交媒体上的用户首次进入了FSD测试程序，这总是非常令人兴奋的事情。

So I'm not ready to say all, but at least right now, most users who actually want the FSD beta in the regions where it's currently available can now actually have access to the program. We got the latest weekly insured data for Tesla China, that number 10,200. So plugging that data into our table, if you wanted to compare to week 7 of quarter one, that number was 5,913. But remember, at that time in quarter one, parts of Tesla China were shut down for Model 3 line upgrades.

目前我还不准备透露所有细节，但是至少在可用区域中，大多数真正需要使用FSD beta的用户现在可以获得程序访问权限了。我们得到了特斯拉中国最新的每周保险数据，数字为10,200。将这些数据输入到我们的表格中，如果你想与第一季度第7周进行比较，那个数字为5,913。但请记住，在第一季度的那个时候，特斯拉中国的一些部门因为Model 3生产线升级而停工。

More importantly, from week 1, quarter 1, to week 7, quarter 1, Tesla did 47.1000 units, and comparing that to quarter 2, week 1, to quarter 2, week 7, that number was 67,000 units. So quarter 2, off to a much better start. Pause if you'd like. Here's that same data in bar chart form. I have been trying to track down BYDs weekly insured data, but I have not yet been able to find it.

更重要的是，从第1周，第1季度开始到第7周，第1季度，特斯拉增加了47,100辆车，而与此相比，第2季度第1周到第2季度第7周，这个数字达到了67,000辆。因此，第二季度的开始要好得多。如果您想要，可以暂停下来。这些数据也可以用条形图表示。我一直在努力寻找比亚迪的每周保险数据，但我还没有找到。

Here we have Tesla launching phase 4 of its South Australian virtual power plant, which is actually enabling more low income families to actually benefit from renewable energy. In this phase, an additional 3,000 households will benefit, and for the first time, this project will also include households within the community housing sector. Of importance, the $33 million expansion is being funded entirely by Tesla. This program is providing housing tenants with the cheapest electricity in the state. Before phase 4, there were already 4,100 households with solar and Tesla power walls in this program. Now that number will be pushed over 7,000.

在这里，特斯拉推出了其南澳虚拟电力厂的第四阶段，实际上使更多低收入家庭受益于可再生能源。在这个阶段，额外的3,000户家庭将受益，这个项目还将首次包括社区住房部门的家庭。值得注意的是，这3300万美元的扩建全部由特斯拉出资。该计划为住房租户提供了该州最便宜的电力。在第四阶段之前，该计划已有4,100户家庭采用了太阳能和特斯拉电池。现在这个数字将超过7,000。

If you're in Canada, check the Tesla inventory for some of these China-made, model-wide, rear-wheel drive vehicles now showing up in inventory. And when you find a listing that you like, then you just check the URL of that website and you can actually see the VIN. So you'll want to look at the first 3 digits if it says LRW, that's made in Shanghai. Using the Tesla VIN decoder, digits 1 through 3 are the manufacturer code. As far as I can tell, though, there were only a handful available I'm talking maybe less than 10, so just wanted to let you know.

如果你在加拿大，可以检查特斯拉库存，看看这些中国制造的车型，现在都在库存中出现了。当你发现喜欢的车辆时，只需检查网站的URL，你实际上就可以看到VIN码。所以，你需要查看前三个数字是否为LRW，那就是在上海生产的。使用特斯拉VIN码解码器，前三位数字是制造商代码。据我所知，这些车型现在只有少数几辆，可能不到10辆，所以只是想让你知道。

Tesla has proposed a new 53,000 square foot service and sales center in Fort Worth. This location would offer maintenance and a place for new owners to pick up their cars. This would be Tesla's second location in Fort Worth, but no timeline has been given. Apparently, Tesla has plans to have booths at all of the electrify expo tour stops that is now underway. What does this mean? Well, thousands of people that will get to experience a Tesla. Tesla had the whole sexy lineup on display and why I really liked these events because Tesla was actually offering ride and drive lines pretty much all day. And here's a list of the upcoming electrify expo stops. We know what happens when we get butts in seats and the creator of the expo said we're bringing out consumers with real purchase power that have the power to really move the needle.

特斯拉计划在沃斯堡地区新建一个面积为53,000平方英尺的销售和服务中心，该中心将为车主提供维护和新车领取的场所。这将是特斯拉在沃斯堡地区的第二个据点，但目前还未定下具体时间表。显然，特斯拉计划在所有电气化博览会巡展站点设立展台。这意味着成千上万的人将有机会体验特斯拉。特斯拉将整个性感阵容摆上展示，并且我真的喜欢这些活动，因为特斯拉实际上在提供整天的试乘试驾活动。以下是即将到来的电气化博览会站点列表。我们知道，当我们让人坐上驾驶座位时会发生什么。博览会的创始人说我们正在吸引那些有真正购买力并有能力推动变革的消费者。

Just a quick check in on Tesla's inventory in Europe, as you can see over the past week, it's been steadily trending down. This does not include vehicles in transit. This is just actual listings in the European market. And the numbers given on these charts do not account for the full number of inventory because if Tesla has 10 cars of the same variant, it's only going to list one variant even if they have 10 available. Now looking at US inventory for the last 50 days, you can see the Model X and the Model 3 that had the highest numbers have also started ticking down.

这是有关特斯拉在欧洲的库存状况的简要检查。可以看到，在过去的一周中，库存逐渐下降。这并不包括运输中的车辆，这只是实际的欧洲市场上的上市车辆。而图表中给出的数字并没有考虑到所有库存的数量。例如，如果特斯拉有10 辆同型号的车，它只会将一种型号列出来，即使有10辆可用。现在看看过去50天美国的库存情况，你会发现已经明显下降的是车型X和车型3的数量。

You have a very big business in China in Tesla. And obviously, you're on that geopolitical fault line that's getting potentially interesting. To what extent is this affecting your decision making? There is fundamentally an issue that's coming to a head with Taiwan. And it's unclear when exactly Bush will come to shove, but it seems that there's a good chance Bush will come to shove. It's trending in that direction. I'd like to think what would that would happen? The results would be before the global economy would be absolutely catastrophic. But China has been very clear about its goals in China and including Taiwan as part of China. So China and Taiwan are like conjoint wins with the Western economy with the rest of the world. So China and the rest of the world being conjoint wins from an economic standpoint will mean that the separation is going to be dire indeed.

在特斯拉方面，你在中国有了一个非常庞大的业务，显然，你处在一个潜在得越来越有趣的地缘政治断层上。这影响了你的决策吗？根本问题即台湾问题正在急速升温，不确定何时会爆发，但它似乎有很大的可能性。我想知道如果真的爆发了，结果会怎样？全球经济将会彻底崩溃。但中国对其在中国及包括台湾在内的目标非常明确。中国和台湾都是与西方经济及世界其他国家联合赢家，因此从经济角度来看，中国和世界其他国家联合共赢，这意味着分离将会十分可怕。

Thanks to the author. I would certainly consider England for a future location of the Gigafactory. Thank you. I'll get you. So you will consider it. Are you actively considering it? We're not currently looking at new locations, but we will pull it towards the end of this year. Not much Tesla news in this conversation. A lot of Twitter, SpaceX, AI. But I'll have this link below if you missed it earlier.

感谢作者。我肯定会考虑英格兰作为Gigafactory的未来位置。谢谢。我明白了，你会考虑它。你正在积极地考虑吗？我们目前并未寻找新位置，但我们将在今年年底之前开始着手。这次谈话中没有太多关于特斯拉的消息。很多是关于Twitter、 SpaceX和AI的。但如果你之前错过了，我会在下面附上链接。

Here we have our Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg saying there's a real concern that's not limited to the technology itself, speaking of autopilot, but the interaction between that technology and the driver. I would say this technology has a lot of promise. We just have to make sure it unfolds in a responsible fashion. We've talked a lot on the channel about how Nitsa has criticized Tesla for being ineffective at monitoring the driver engagement, which is why when Green the only reported that Tesla was going to start doing more with the in-camera, that was going to be a great thing for Tesla when it comes to how Nitsa views them. I think we just need Nitsa and Pete to start following Green the only.

这里我们的交通部长彼得·布蒂吉格表示，不仅仅是自动驾驶技术本身，而是这种技术与驾驶员的交互之间存在真正的担忧。我认为这种技术有很大的潜力，我们只需确保它以负责任的方式展开。我们在频道上已经谈论了很多关于Nitsa批评特斯拉无法监控驾驶员参与度的问题，这就是为什么当“绿色唯一”报道特斯拉将要增加摄像头功能时，对于特斯拉是一个好事的原因，因为这能提高Nitsa对他们的认可度。我认为我们只需要让Nitsa和彼得开始关注“绿色唯一”即可。

I don't think we're going to go back to the days a couple of years ago, a hundred days supply. So most people are in the 50 days supply range. I think the natural discounting for someone who is an older product is going to be in the thousands. You're starting to see now low APRs from a lot of brands who have older product.

我认为我们不会回到几年前的那个一百天供应的时期。所以现在大多数人的供应只有50天左右。对于一些老产品，我认为自然的折扣会达到数千元。你现在可以看到许多品牌推出低信用卡年利率的优惠，这些品牌都有一些老产品。

How do you get from 8% on your EV business, you want to do 10% overall to the 17% that Tesla has? Do you get up there or do they eventually see margin pressure? It's a good question. Both are going to happen. We're seeing what's happening in China with BYD, what's happening with Tesla. They reduce their prices a lot of why their main product, $57,000. It goes up and goes down, but it's pretty far down.

你目前在电动汽车业务上只有8%的份额，但你希望总体占有率达到10%，那么如何才能达到特斯拉17%的份额呢？你是否需要开高马力，还是他们最终会面临利润压力？这是一个好问题。两种情况都会发生。我们正在看到中国的比亚迪和特斯拉的发展情况。他们大幅降价，主要产品价格现在是57,000美元，这个价格上上下下，但幅度相当大。

Where we compete really in EV pickup trucks, three-row crossovers that we're going to show people today and the commercial vehicle, EV commercial vehicles. We don't see as much price competition because there's not as many vehicles choices there. And we see that in lightning. Lightning's price is actually increased over the last two years, mightily, while the Mustang Machi has been more competitive.

我们主要在电动皮卡、七座跨界车和今天我们要向人们展示的商用车电动商用车方面进行竞争。由于选择的车型较少，我们并没有看到太多的价格竞争。这也体现在闪电上，闪电的价格在过去两年中实际上有所上涨，而野马Machi则更有竞争力。

I think vertical integration is going to be the theme of the day because the gearboxes, the electric motors, the inverters, the whole electric architecture. We've farmed out to all of our suppliers for decades. We're bringing all that in now, especially the software inside the company. And it's hard, but it helps with the cost. And we think all those are difference makers. So we want to be doing those things and solving the hardest problems that forward.

我认为垂直整合将成为当今的主题，因为变速箱、电动马达、逆变器、整个电气架构，我们多年来一直委托给供应商。我们现在正在将这些带回公司内部，特别是软件。这很困难，但可以降低成本。我们认为这些都是区别制造者。因此，我们希望做这些事情，并解决前进道路中最困难的问题。

What we've learned about software in the company is kind of really different than we expected. What we've learned is that you need to get the A-players because they attract A-players. And software is not like mechanical engineering where you can kind of hire X amount of people to do X amount of work. Software, the best people actually do it with less people.

我们在公司学到的关于软件的知识，与我们预想中的有很大不同。我们学到的是，你需要挖掘顶尖人才，因为他们吸引其他顶尖人才。而软件开发不同于机械工程，你不能仅靠雇用X个人完成X量的工作。在软件开发中，最优秀的人才往往可以用更少的人来完成。

We're taking better electric, back our electric architecture. With the 150 modules we have today, all the suppliers write different software for. They buy the silicon, we don't. So we're taking all that back into the company. And that means we can make it completely software-updatable. And it's our software. That means we can change anything, we can design it just like we want, and we expect the silicon ourselves.

我们正在改进我们的电气架构，将150个模块全部带回到公司，并自主撰写软件。如今，我们的供应商会为每个模块编写不同的软件，而我们只负责购买硅片。但现在我们将把所有的工作都内部处理，这意味着我们可以完全更新软件，并可以自由设计想要的任何改变，同时我们也将自主购买硅片。

The second thing is it's just radically simpler engineering. The battery turns out to be so expensive that it's required us to completely re-engineer the vehicle. In a way we probably should have done years ago. Every way you look, Tesla is being copied. As I always say, success leaves clues. And props the Ford for doing the right thing and making the hard choices in the short term.

第二个原因就是它采用了更加简化的工程设计。电池价格非常昂贵，这迫使我们完全重新设计整个车辆，其实这个做法很早就应该实施了。无论从哪个角度看去，特斯拉都被其他车企模仿。我经常说，成功留下了线索。赞扬福特在短时间内做出正确的选择和艰难的决定。

Fun fact about Tesla, you may not know the Model S and X use accelerometers on the chassis to measure road noise frequencies which are canceled out via the speakers. I haven't yet seen the whole video. However, if you want to really nerd out on the Tesla heat pump system, I'll put this video from Weber Auto below.

有趣的事实是，您可能不知道Model S和X使用底盘上的加速度计测量道路噪音频率，并通过扬声器进行消除。我还没有看完整个视频。然而，如果您真的想了解特斯拉热泵系统，我会在下面放置Weber Auto的视频。

Tomorrow, Wednesday at 6pm, Ron DeSantis is going to do a live interview with Elon Musk on a Twitter Spaces to announce his presidential campaign. A judge has dismissed a proposed class action lawsuit against Elon. This was involving Twitter claiming that he actually cheated the Twitter shareholders. Luckily, Elon at least for now will not have to waste any time on this one.

明天周三晚上六点，Ron DeSantis将在Twitter Spaces上与Elon Musk进行一次直播采访，宣布他的总统竞选计划。一名法官驳回了对Elon提出的一项拟议集体诉讼。这与Twitter声称他实际上欺骗了Twitter股东有关。幸运的是，至少暂时来说，Elon不必浪费时间来应对这个问题。

If you can find me on Twitter at Dillonumus22, I hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did, and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.

如果你能在 Twitter 上找到我，账号是 Dillonumus22 的话，希望你们有美好的一天。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞，非常感谢所有赞助我的 Patreon 支持者。