Markets Weekly May 20
发布时间 2023-05-20 22:40:46 来源
Hello my friends, today is May 20th, my name is Joseph and this is Markets Weekly. This week we're going to talk about three things. First, we're going to talk about the debt ceiling which has been in the news the entire week. I'll tell you why I don't worry about the debt ceiling at all.
大家好，今天是5月20日，我是Joseph，欢迎来到本周市场周报。本周我们将会介绍三个主题。首先，我们将讨论整个星期都在新闻中出现的国债上限问题。我会告诉你为什么我完全不担心国债上限问题。
Secondly, I'm going to talk about what I wrote about recently that is the possibility that the level of liquidity in the banking sector drops below cautionary levels faster than many expect and what the Fed might do about it.
其次，我要谈谈我最近写的内容，即银行业流动性水平可能比许多人预期的更快降至警示水平，以及美联储可能采取的措施。
And lastly, we'll go over some of the Fed speak that happened this week and we had a lot of Fed speak including Chair Powell himself. Okay, now, beginning with the debt ceiling.
最后，我们将回顾本周发生的一些联邦储备委员会讲话，包括主席鲍威尔在内有很多讲话。好的，现在，我们从债务上限开始。
As many of you know, the US government always spends more than it receives in taxes. That means in order for the government to continue to function, it has to keep issuing debt. Now this wasn't always the case. There were periods in our history where we had a balanced budget and sometimes even budget surpluses. But over the past few years, that's really changed. We have very large budget deficits right now and for the past few years as well.
众所周知，美国政府总是比收到的税收更多地支出。这意味着为了政府继续运转，必须不断发行债券。这并非一直如此。我们历史上曾有过平衡预算甚至预算盈余的时期。但在过去几年里，情况发生了很大变化。现在我们有非常大的预算赤字，过去几年也是如此。
Once upon a time, some politicians were really concerned about the prospect of large deficits. They looked around the world and across history and they noticed that countries who run huge budget deficits eventually end up with high inflation, high interest rates and very poor economic growth. So they created the debt ceiling. What the debt ceiling is is that it limits the ability of the US government to issue debt. It cannot issue more debt than set by the debt ceiling. When the government hits the debt ceiling, Congress has to decide to lift it.
从前，一些政治家非常担心大规模的赤字前景。他们环顾世界、观察历史，发现经济规模较大的国家最终会面临高通胀、高利率和极差的经济增长。因此，他们制定了债务上限政策。这一政策限制美国政府发行债务的能力，即不能发行超过债务上限的债务。当政府达到债务上限时，国会必须决定是否将其提高。
And so there's a negotiation and process and the debt ceiling gives certain political parties some negotiating leverage to reduce federal spending. So we're at this moment right now where we've already hit the debt ceiling in January and the government may potentially run out of headroom maybe in June, maybe in July, maybe in August. It's really hard to know.
因此，这是一个谈判和过程，债务上限给某些政治党派提供了一些谈判杠杆来减少联邦支出。所以现在我们正处于这个时刻，在一月份我们已经达到了债务上限，政府可能会在六月、七月或八月用完预算余额，真的很难说。
We hit a lot of headlines this week saying that there was optimism and then pessimism and so forth. Historically, over the past several years, we've seen this play out over and over again. Where there's always fear, there's always uncertainty. And then at the last moment, there's a compromise. The debt ceiling's lifted and we all go back to business as usual.
这个星期我们经历了许多标题，说有乐观和悲观等等。在过去几年的历史中，我们一遍又一遍地看到这种情况发生。当人们感到恐惧和不确定性的时候，总会在最后时刻达成妥协，债务上限被提高，然后我们都回归日常生活。
So market participants are rightly skeptical of this being a major market moving event. And if you're a professional investor, you basically don't worry about this at all because you already know that there's lots of things both the Fed and the Treasury can do to make the debt ceiling a non-issue when it comes to markets.
因此，市场参与者对此事件是否会对市场产生重大影响持怀疑态度是正确的。如果你是一位专业投资者，你基本上不需要担心这个问题，因为你已经知道美联储和财政部可以采取很多措施，使债务上限对市场不再成为问题。
The biggest fear of a debt ceiling is it would be a default. That is to say, the US government runs out of money and is unable to pay interest payments or principal payments on its debt. If that were to happen, there would be tremendous amounts of uncertainty.
债务上限最大的恐惧就是出现违约情况。这意味着，美国政府无法支付其债务的利息或本金，因此资金告罄。如果这种情况发生，将会有巨大的不确定性。
For example, what would happen to all the investors who are counting on coupon interest repayments? Can they hold the faulted Treasury's or let's look at the repo market? But if you were lending against the Treasury that defaulted, we would still be willing to hold that as collateral. There's a lot of uncertainty of how this would play out.
例如，那些依靠票息还款计划的投资者会发生什么情况？他们能持有被违约的国库券吗？或者我们可以看看回购市场。但如果你对违约的国库券进行借出，我们仍然愿意将其作为抵押品持有。有很多不确定性，我们不知道这种情况会如何发展。
But we also know though that the Fed would not let this happen. The Fed has a mandate for financial stability and through Congressional subpoenas, we also found out that the Fed actually has a backup plan in case there really was an actual default.
我们也知道美联储不会让这种事情发生。美联储有维护金融稳定的职责，我们通过国会传票还发现美联储确实有备用计划，以防发生真正的违约情况。
What the Fed would do is that they would undertake payment prioritization. The Fed is the Treasury's banker. If the Treasury were able to default, what the Fed could do is to prioritize payments towards interest payments and principal payments on US Treasury debt and default on other people, like military contractors or Medicare recipients and so forth.
美联储将会实行付款优先，因为美联储是财政部的银行家。如果财政部面临违约，美联储可以优先支付美国国债的利息和本金，而对于其他人，如军火承包商或医保受益人等，则可能不予支付而进入违约状态。
There is enough money coming in from tax receipts to basically pay interest on the Treasury debt indefinitely. Once payment prioritization kicks in, there would be no defaults on the Treasury securities, but there would be some impact on the real economy because vendors or whoever the federal government pays money to will not be receiving payments in a timely way. Even if the Fed were to not undertake payment prioritization, there are still many tricks that the Treasury can do to make sure that they don't default on the debt.
从税收收据中进来的钱足以基本上无限期地支付国债利息。一旦付款优先考虑启动，国债证券不会违约，但对实际经济会产生一些影响，因为供应商或联邦政府支付金钱给谁的人将不能及时地收到付款。即使联邦储备委员会不采取付款优先考虑，财政部仍有许多诀窍可以确保他们不会违约债务。
They're doing one of the tricks right now. It's called extraordinary measures. What extraordinary measures really is, in a nutshell, is changing the composition of Treasury debt away from debt that counts towards a debt limit and towards debt that does not count towards debt limit. For example, the US government has a lot of retirement accounts for, let's say, the Social Security recipients or for government workers that invest in Treasury securities.
他们现在正在执行其中一种骗局，叫做“特别措施”。简而言之，“特别措施”就是改变国债组成形式，将不计入债务限制的国债形式转变为计入债务限制的国债形式。例如，美国政府拥有许多退休账户，比如社保受益人或政府工作人员的账户，这些账户投资国库券。
Part of the extraordinary measures that are being undertaken right now is that the US government is asking those trust funds to not invest in Treasury debt. If they're not investing in Treasury debt, there's less debt that counts towards the ceiling. Notice that the US government is just telling those trust funds that we'll pay you back later after this is all done. In a sense, instead of getting a Treasury security as an IOU, they're getting another kind of IOU that doesn't count towards the debt ceiling. There's a lot of little tricks like that to make sure that the Treasury doesn't default on Treasury securities. There's not going to be any huge default. That's totally out of the picture. What you should be worried about though is what it takes to get a debt ceiling compromised.
目前正在采取的非同寻常措施之一是美国政府要求那些信托基金不要投资国债。如果他们不投资国债，计入上限的债务就会减少。请注意，美国政府只是告诉这些信托基金，在这一切完成之后，我们会向你们偿还。从某种意义上说，他们得到的是另一种不计入债务上限的 IOU，而不是国债证券。有很多像这样的小技巧，以确保财政部不会违约国债证券。不会有任何巨大的违约。这完全不在考虑范围内。但你应该担心的是达成债务上限妥协所需付出的代价。
Usually it takes some degree of spending cuts. If the federal government were to reduce its spending, obviously that's less demand in the economy and that will slow economic growth and potentially push us towards a recession. That being said, of course, we are already spending a lot of money. Some restraint is not unexpected and wouldn't be unhealthy in the medium term. So what we should be focusing on is just what kind of compromise it takes to get a debt ceiling lifted.
通常需要进行一定程度的支出削减。如果联邦政府减少支出，显然这会在经济中减少需求并降低经济增长，并可能将我们推向经济衰退。也就是说，当然，我们已经花了很多钱。一些克制在中期内并不出乎意料，并且不会对健康构成不良影响。因此，我们应该关注的是需要什么样的妥协来解除债务上限。
The next topic we'll talk about is my latest piece, Proving Low-Clor. Where low-Clor means lowest comfortable level of reserves. From the Fed's perspective, the banking sector needs a certain minimum level of reserves to function. Reserves are just cash held at the Fed. If you're a bank, of course, banks have cash. So if you or me, if we have cash, we hold it in a bank as a deposit at the bank. If you're a bank though, you hold your cash as a deposit at the Fed and it's called reserves.
我们接下来要谈论的是我的最新作品《证明低克洛级别》。其中，低克洛是指储备的最低舒适水平。从联邦储备委员会的角度来看，银行业需要一定的最低储备水平才能正常运作。储备就是在联邦储备委员会持有的现金。如果你是一家银行，当然，银行有现金。所以如果是你或我，如果我们有现金，我们会将其存入银行作为存款。但如果你是银行，你将现金作为存款存放在联邦储备委员会，这就是所谓的储备。
From the Fed's perspective, if the amounts of reserves in the banking system drops too low, then you could have some hiccups in the financial system. The Fed looked at the repuls spike in September of 2019 and perceived that to be the banking system not having enough reserves. And based on that, there are estimates from the New York Fed where the banking system needs about, the amount of reserves the banking system needs is about 8% of GDP. Today, that's about 2.2 trillion. Reserves right now are 3.2 trillion. So we, based on this estimate of 2.2 trillion minimum, there's about 1 trillion in excess reserves in the banking system.
从联邦储备系统的角度来看，如果银行系统的储备量太低，那么金融系统可能会出现一些问题。联邦储备系统在2019年9月的回撤中发现银行系统没有足够的储备。根据纽约联邦储备银行的估计，银行系统需要的储备金约占国内生产总值的8％。目前，这约为2.2万亿美元。储备金目前为3.2万亿美元。因此，根据这个最低的估计2.2万亿美元，银行系统内超额储备约为1万亿美元。
But there are two things in the coming months that were drain that 3.2 trillion very rapidly. The first that will happen is that once a debt ceiling is resolved, the US Treasury will have to rebuild their Treasury General Account. The Treasury General Account is the checking account the federal government has at the Fed. Right now it's really low. I think it's below 100 billion. It has a target to either have it at $5.50 billion by the end of June or $600 billion by the end of September. So once the debt ceiling is raised, the US Treasury is going to issue a lot of debt and it's going to use the proceeds of that debt to rebuild its checking account at the Fed. When that happens, money will come out of the banking system and into the Treasury General Account. So you can easily see that reserves could drop by, let's say, $4.50 billion in a pretty short amount of time.
在接下来的几个月里，有两件事情会迅速耗竭3.2万亿美元。第一件事是，一旦解决债务上限问题，美国财政部将不得不重建其国库常规帐户。国库常规账户是联邦政府在美联储拥有的支票账户。目前它非常低，我认为它低于1000亿美元。它有一个目标，即到今年6月底要达到550亿美元，或在今年9月底达到6000亿美元。所以，一旦债务上限被提高，美国财政部将发行大量债券，并使用这些债券收益来重建其在美联储的支票账户。当这种情况发生时，资金将从银行系统中流出，并转移到国库常规帐户中。因此，您可以很容易地看到，储备金在相当短的时间内可能会下降约450亿美元。
So that will take us from 3.2 trillion down to $500 billion to $2.7 trillion. Now what about the other $500 billion that I'm thinking might disappear? Well as time goes on, I expect the reverse repofacility to gradually increase. And when the reverse repoveracility increases, that means money is flowing out of the banking system through the money market funds into the reverse repoveracility, which is kind of like a checking account for the money market funds.
这将使我们的负债从3.2万亿美元下降至5000亿到2.7万亿美元。现在我们所考虑的另外5000亿美元会消失吗？随着时间的推移，我预计反向回购业务会逐渐增加。当反向回购业务增加时，意味着资金通过货币市场基金流出银行体系到反向回购业务中，这有点像货币市场基金的支票账户。
Now historically speaking, there's a lag between when rates go up and when people become more interested sensitive, move money into money market funds. The lag is usually actually about a year and we see that happen every rate hike cycle. So it's fed hikes rates, nobody cares. And after let's say a year of hikes, people began to realize, hey, maybe I can get more return in a money market fund. And so they move money into a money market fund.
从历史的角度来看，当利率上升时，人们会变得更加敏感，把钱转移到货币市场基金中存在一定的滞后性。通常情况下，这种滞后实际上是约一年左右，我们可以在每次利率上调周期中看到这种现象。所以当美联储加息时，人们并不关心。但是在加息大约一年后，人们开始意识到可能可以在货币市场基金中获得更高的回报率，因此便会将资金转移至货币市场基金中。
Today, money market funds don't have a lot of investment options to place that money that they're getting. So they're choosing to put it in the reverse repoveracility. Over the next few months, and we've been seeing this already, we have steady and weekly inflows into money market funds, about say $10, $15 billion, which is in line with what we would see historically.
目前，货币市场基金没有太多的投资选择来放置他们所得到的资金。因此，他们选择将这些资金存放于逆回购。在接下来的几个月中，我们已经看到了持续和每周的资金流入货币市场基金，约为100亿至150亿美元，这与历史上的情况相符。
As that continues to grow, money will gradually seep out of the banking system and into the reverse repo facility. And in a few months, that could easily be a few hundred billion dollars, especially since money market funds will probably have fewer investment options as some of the things they've been investing in for a whole new bank that is probably going to decrease in issuance. So eventually, I think we're going to get quite close to the $2.2 trillion in reserves that the banking system needs.
随着这一趋势的持续增长，资金将逐渐从银行系统流出，进入逆回购设施中。在几个月内，这可能很容易成为几千亿美元，特别是因为货币市场基金可能会有更少的投资选择，因为它们一直在投资于新银行（这可能会减少发行量）。因此，最终我认为银行系统需要的储备金将会接近2.2万亿美元。
Now I think this drop will be temporary because eventually, let's say in the next several months, the US Treasury will issue more bills and money market funds will take money out of the reverse repo facility, purchase bills, and then that money then goes into the federal government's check-in count at the Fed and gets spent into the economy, let's say, to make payments to military contractors or social security recipients who then bank with a commercial bank. And so as the Treasury issues more bills, money will flow out of the R.P. and into the banking sector. But that's over more of a medium term period.
我认为这种下降将是暂时的，因为在接下来的几个月内，美国财政部将发行更多的票据，货币市场基金将从反向回购设施中取出资金，购买票据，然后该资金将流向联邦政府在联邦储备银行的支票账户，并被用于经济支出，例如向军事承包商或社保受益人支付。然后这些人将存入商业银行。因此，随着财政部发行更多票据，资金将流出反向回购并流向银行业。但这需要中期时间来实现。
In the near term, I think there's a very real possibility that reserves could drop to a level where the Fed might be uncomfortable. If that were to happen, the easiest thing for the Fed to do would be the same thing that they did in September of 2019 and that is they would buy Treasury bills. This would add liquidity directly into the banking sector and from the Fed's perspective, have a really limited impact on financial assets because they're buying short duration assets and financing it with the assurance of reserves, which are also short duration assets. I think if they were to do this, a lot of people would look at this and say, oh, this is QE and it would be a financial market positive. But from a mechanics perspective, I think the Fed wouldn't perceive it that way. Anyway, we'll see how this turns out. This probably won't happen for another, I'd say, three months depending on when the debt ceiling is resolved.
近期，我认为准备金可能会降至让美联储感到不舒服的水平。如果这种情况发生，美联储最简单的做法就是重复2019年9月的做法，购买国债。这将直接增加银行业的流动性，从美联储的角度来看，对金融资产的影响非常有限，因为他们购买的是短期资产，并以准备金的保证融资，而准备金也是短期资产。我认为，如果他们这样做了，很多人会认为这就是量化宽松，对金融市场是积极的。但从机制上来看，我认为美联储不会这样看。总之，我们会看到这种情况会如何发展。这可能需要另外三个月的时间，具体取决于负债上限何时解决。
Now the last topic we'll talk about is Fed speak. So this week we had some heavy hitters from the Fed talking about their perspective on the markets. We had Chirpow on Friday, but we also had a future vice chair, Jefferson speak. We also had a voting member, Lori Logan, who was president of the Dallas Fed speak as well. So she's a voting member and she made some interesting comments, so I'll briefly note what she mentioned.
现在我们要谈论的是联邦储备委员会的言论。本周，一些联储的重量级人物发表了自己对市场的看法。周五，我们有Chirpow，还有未来的副主席Jefferson发表演讲。此外，我们还有德州联储行长Lori Logan作为投票成员发表了一些有趣的言论。因此，我会简要地提及她所提到的内容。
She strongly suggested that she would be open to hiking rates in June. For rationale for this is that, well, there's some possibility that inflation expectations may be come unanchored. And so the Fed should hike rates to get this problem resolved, to get inflation resolved more quickly. And this is what we mentioned last week and what Bob Elliott has been mentioning as well.
她强烈建议，她会考虑在6月份加息。原因是，有可能通货膨胀预期出现不稳定的情况，因此美联储应该加息来解决这个问题，更快地解决通货膨胀问题。这也是我们上周提到的，也是鲍勃·艾略特一直在提到的。
So the Fed is telling everyone that eventually when it gets inflation under control, but it's not that easy. There's also a timing aspect to this. Because if it takes five years to get inflation under control, eventually inflation expectations will begin to rise. We've already had two years of inflation above 5%. From the Fed's perspective, they're really worried about inflation expectations becoming unanchored because if everyone expects that inflation will continue, then they will take that into account when they're asking for wage increases or when they're setting prices. And then at that moment, you could have an inflation spiral, inflation becomes more ingrained, and then the Fed's job becomes much more difficult. Now the question is, is two years of 5% inflation enough to unanchored expectations or do you need more time?
因此，美联储告诉大家，最终当通胀得到控制时，但事情并不那么容易。还有一个时间方面的因素。因为如果需要五年时间来控制通胀，最终通胀预期将开始上升。我们已经经历了两年超过5%的通胀。从美联储的角度来看，他们非常担心通胀预期失去锚定，因为如果每个人都预计通货膨胀会继续，那么他们在要求加薪或制定价格时就会考虑到这一点。然后在那一刻，你可能会有一个通胀的连锁反应，通胀变得更加根深蒂固，那么美联储的工作就变得更加困难。 现在的问题是，5%的通胀持续了两年足以失去预期的锚定，还是需要更多的时间？
So far, depending on the metric you're looking at, it doesn't seem like it's becoming unanchored. There are some surveys that are a bit more concerning, like the more recent University of Michigan survey, but overall, it seems like it's okay. But there's always the possibility that if this persists in the safety three years, maybe people should, and I think it would make sense to expect inflation to be more persistent. So one rationale for Hiking Rakes in June is because we've got to get this done sooner rather than later because there's a time limit on this. So that's Logan's perspective.
到目前为止，根据不同的衡量标准来看，通货膨胀似乎并未失去锚定。有一些调查结果有点令人担忧，比如最近密歇根大学的调查，但总体来说看起来还好。但如果这种情况在未来三年内持续存在，就有可能出现问题。因此，6月加息的理由之一是我们必须尽早解决这个问题，因为时间有限。这是Logan的观点。
Now Jefferson and Chirpau seem to be a bit more hesitant to telegraph a strong rate hike in June. So what they're saying is that they want to take a look at the data. They're going to be data dependent. Now Chirpau made a comment, which he already made earlier, in that because we have some, potentially some restrained in the baking sector, maybe we won't be hiking as much as we originally thought. Now this was already clear from a couple of meetings ago where the Fed instead of hiking 50 basis points, hike 25 noting that they were stressed in the baking sector.
现在杰斐逊和奇尔波似乎对在六月强烈上调利率有些犹豫。他们表示想要观察数据，他们会根据数据变化调整。奇尔波做了一个评论，他早些时候也曾经提出，由于银行领域受到一些约束，我们可能不会像最初预计的那样增加利率幅度。几次会议以前Fed已经明确表示，由于银行业受到压力，他们不会上调50个基点，而只上调25个基点。
So that's actually not new news. What Jefferson and Chirpau are saying though is that if we have more hot inflation prints, we have more hot labor market prints between now and June, then we're going to hike again 25 basis points. So far, they haven't made up their mind.
这其实并不是新闻。但是杰弗逊和奇尔波表示，如果我们在6月份之前再出现更多的通胀和劳动力市场数据走高，那么我们将会再次加息25个基点。目前为止，他们还没有做出决定。
So there's a very open discussion happening among FOMC participants where you have Bowman, which we talked about last week and Logan, in favor of a 25 basis point hike in June, but Pao and everyone else who are actually more important on pause, unless the data says otherwise.
FOMC参与者之间正在进行非常开放的讨论，其中有Bowman（我们上周讨论过）和Logan，他们支持在6月份加息25个基点，但Pao和其他人则暂停加息，除非数据有所改变。
So I don't actually think that the 25 basis points is a big deal or not. What is a big deal is that there's a big large difference between what the market is pricing, rate cuts later in the year and what the Fed is saying. At Chirpau is resolving that contradiction by saying that, well, this is just the market hedging for different scenarios and perhaps having a different perspective on how quickly inflation will be under control.
我并不认为25个基点是一个大问题或不是一个大问题。真正的问题在于市场对于后期降息的定价和美联储的说法之间存在很大的差异。Chirpau通过说，市场只是为了不同的情况进行对冲，并且可能对控制通货膨胀速度有不同的观点，解决了这个矛盾。
So we're going to have to carefully watch data in the coming weeks to see if there's enough to warrant a warrant, another hike. But in any case, it's really unlikely, I think, based upon Chirpau's commentary that he would be entertaining anything that would approach your rate cut in the coming months.
因此，在未来几周中，我们将不得不仔细观察数据，以确定是否有足够的理由再次加息。但无论如何，我认为根据奇尔帕乌的评论，他不太可能考虑在未来几个月降息的任何事情。
Okay, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. If you like what I'm producing, please remember to like and subscribe. And of course, if you're interested in learning more about the markets, check out my courses. Some of which are free at CentralBanking101.com. Thanks and talk to you guys soon.
好的，今天我准备的内容就这些了。非常感谢你们的收听。如果你喜欢我的节目，请记得点赞和订阅。当然，如果你有兴趣学习更多市场知识，请访问我在CentralBanking101.com提供的课程，其中一些是免费的。谢谢大家，我们下次再聊吧。