Apple’s $573 Billion Bet (& Are They Going Private)
发布时间 2023-05-19 19:00:28 来源
Apple has invested $573 billion into this over the past 10 years. Can you guess what this is? Maybe R&D? Well, Apple spends about $6-7 billion per quarter on R&D.
苹果在过去的10年中投资了5730亿美元。你能猜到这是什么吗？也许是研发？嗯，苹果每季度在研发上的开支约为60-70亿美元。
So while that adds up to about $250 billion over a 10-year period, that's less than half of this other investment. Maybe they spent it on acquisitions? Well Apple only has two acquisitions that even crossed the $1 billion mark, beats and it until smartphone modem business.
因此，尽管这意味着在10年的时间里投入大约2500亿美元，但这还不到另一个投资的一半。也许他们用它来进行收购？但是，苹果公司只有两次收购甚至超过了10亿美元的标志，分别是Beats和智能手机调制解调器业务。
So nowhere near $573 billion. Maybe they've just been hoarding a crap ton of cash? Well Apple has actually been decreasing their cash reserves consistently from over $100 billion down to just over $50 billion.
所以远远没有5730亿美元。也许他们只是一直在囤积大量现金？实际上，苹果公司一直在不断减少其现金储备，从超过1000亿美元降至略高于500亿美元。
Okay then maybe it's the total value of all of Apple's assets? Well while Apple's assets do tower at an impressive $350 billion, it still falls over $200 billion short of $573 billion. But then if Apple didn't spend this money on R&D, acquisitions, cash reserves or investments, where the hell did such a ginormous amount of money go? Well it turns out that Apple's biggest bet over the past 10 years is actually stock by-vax.
那么，可能是苹果公司所有资产的总价值吗？虽然苹果公司的资产总值高达 3,500 亿美元，但仍然相比 5730 亿美元短了超过 2,000 亿美元。那么，如果苹果公司没有将此金额用于研发、收购、现金储备或投资，那这么巨大的一笔钱到底去了哪里呢？事实证明，苹果在过去 10 年中最大的赌注实际上是 By-Vax 股票。
That's right. Apple has spent $573 billion over the past 10 years on stock by-vax. For perspective, that's enough money to buy a Fortune 10 company cash.
没错，苹果过去10年在股票回购上花了5730亿美元。就算放在一个更大的层面来说，这足够买下一家财富500强公司。
In second place, we have a Microsoft who comes in at a measly $170 billion over the past 10 years or over $400 billion less. It looks like this disparity is only going to grow larger as Apple is simply doubling down. In fact, nowadays Apple is spending nearly $100 billion on stock by-vax every single year.
在第二名，我们有微软，过去十年仅有1700亿美元，比苹果少了4000亿美元。看起来这种差距只会越来越大，因为苹果正在加倍努力。事实上，现在苹果每年几乎花费1000亿美元购买股票。
意思：在过去的十年里，苹果的财务表现比微软好得多，因为它赚了4000亿美元以上，而微软仅赚了1700亿美元。而现在，苹果正通过加大购买股票的力度来进一步增加其财务实力。
Assuming that this continues to increase, Apple will spend over a trillion dollars on by-vax over the next 10 years. This has sparked rumors regarding whether Apple is trying to go private. But more importantly, has raised concerns about whether this is healthy for the economy. Instead of investing this money into creating new products, creating new jobs, or even just storing it in cash or bonds where it can be lent out, Apple has decided to spend half a trillion dollars on inflating their stock price.
假设这种趋势持续增长，苹果公司未来十年内将花费超过万亿美元来购买股票。这引发了有关苹果公司是否试图私有化的传言，但更重要的是，引发了对这是否有利于经济的担忧。苹果公司决定花费5000亿美元来推高自己的股价，而不是将这笔钱投资于创造新产品、创造新就业机会、或者仅仅将其存储在现金或债券中以便借出。
So here's the story of how a once-banded practice became so popular, and why companies are throwing it trillions at by-vax every single year. The reasoning behind why companies love stock by-vax is not rocket science. By purchasing shares from the market and the burning them, companies are not only adding demand to the market, but they're also reducing supply.
以下是这个曾经被禁止的操纵市场操作如何变得如此流行的故事，以及为什么公司每年要向这种操纵市场操作投入数万亿美元的原因。公司喜欢股票赌注的原因并不难理解。通过从市场购买股票并烧掉它们，公司不仅增加了市场的需求，还减少了供应。
So thanks to basic supply and demand economics, this dynamic leads to stock prices going up. Aside from boosting the stock price, by-vax also boosts the benefits of being a shareholder.
因为基本的供求经济学原理，这种动态导致股票价格上涨。除了提高股票价格，by-vax还提高了作为股东的收益。
For example, let's say that Apple had a total of 100 shares of stock, and that you owned 10 of them. This means that you owned 10% of the company, but what if Apple came in and eliminated 20 of the shares by buying them back? Well, you still only own 10 shares, but since the total number of shares has decreased to 80, you now own 12.5% of Apple.
举个例子，假设苹果公司一共有100股股票，你持有了其中10股。这意味着你拥有公司的10%股份，但如果苹果公司回购了其中20股，那么呢？虽然你仍然只持有10股股票，但由于总股本减少为80股，你现在拥有苹果公司的12.5%的股份。
This means that you'll now get 12.5% of the dividends, 12.5% of the voting power, and so on and so forth. So it's no wonder why companies and shareholders love by-vax, but the impact of by-vax on the economy is not so bright. This is why stock by-vax were banned for over 50 years up until 1981.
这意味着您现在将获得12.5%的股息，12.5%的投票权等等。因此，不难理解为什么公司和股东喜欢补偿股，但是补偿股对经济的影响并不那么明显。这就是为什么股票补偿股在1981年之前被禁止了50多年的原因。
You see, the idea of companies buying back their own stock is by no means a new one. It's only natural that once a company runs out of external places to invest, they turn to investing in themselves. But ironically, the roots of by-vax actually trace back to times of despair as opposed to times of prosperity to the Great Depression.
你知道，公司回购自己的股票并不是一个新的概念。一旦公司没有其他外部投资的机会，投资自己就是一种顺理成章的选择。但具有讽刺意味的是，回购股票的根源实际上可以追溯到大萧条时期而非繁荣时期。
A lot of activists who are not fans of by-vax like to claim that stock by-vax are what led to the Great Depression in the first place, but this is not true. The primary reasons for the Great Depression were simply excessive speculation paired with excessive levels of debt.
很多反对强制接种疫苗的活动人士喜欢宣称，股票疫苗是导致经济大萧条的罪魁祸首，但这是不真实的。经济大萧条的主要原因是过度炒作和过度债务。
But while by-vax did not cause the Depression, the Depression did cause by-vax and by-vax only made the Depression worse. For obvious reasons, investors became frantic when the Dow Jones crashed 90% within a matter of three years.
然而，虽然By-vax并不是大萧条的根本原因，但大萧条确实导致了By-vax的产生，并且By-vax只会让大萧条变得更加严重。显然，当道琼斯指数在三年内暴跌90%时，投资者变得狂乱。
They demanded that executives put up strong quarterly reports, increased dividends, and basically defied the economic situation. Understandably, this was simply not possible for most companies given the economic landscape. But what they were able to do was provide investors some solace through by-vax.
他们要求高管发布强有力的季度报告，增加股息，基本上抵制经济形势。可以理解的是，鉴于经济形势，对于大多数公司来说，这根本不可能。但他们能够做到的是通过附带价值的方式为投资者提供一些安慰。
While this did not change the fact that most investors were down a ridiculous amount, it didn't sure that they could maximize the wealth that they did still have. So by-vax quickly became the go-to way to pander to shareholders during the depths of the Great Depression.
尽管大多数投资者亏损惨重，但这并没有改变事实，但这确保了他们可以最大限度地利用他们仍然拥有的财富。因此，通过后来迅速成为在大萧条期间迎合股东的首选方式。
But this was terrible for the economy. To escape the Depression, America needed corporations to invest in employees, factories, and R&D. But instead, companies were spending the little money they did have on superficial avenue.
但这对经济来说是可怕的。为了摆脱大萧条，美国需要企业投入员工、工厂和研发。然而，相反，公司们把他们所剩的少量资金花在了表面的渠道上。
This went on for a couple of years until the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This legislation wasn't targeted at stock buy-backs specifically. In fact, it doesn't even mention buy-backs.
这种情况持续了几年，直到1933年的证券法和1934年的证券交易法。这些法规并不特别针对股票回购。事实上，它甚至没有提到回购。
Rather, it was designed to prevent the Depression from happening again by putting some checks and balances in place. One of these checks and balances was that companies were not allowed to manipulate their own stock price. Technically, there was no mention of stock buy-backs, so that was more of a grey area, but no company was brave enough to test the SEC.
相反，该法案的设计目的是通过设置一些监管措施来防止再次发生经济大萧条。其中一个监管措施是不允许公司操纵自己的股价。从技术上讲，法案并没有提到股票回购，所以这更多地是一个灰色地带，但是没有一家公司敢于挑战证券交易委员会。
So the practice of stock buy-backs simply disappeared into oblivion. And it would have been great if it stayed that way, but that obviously wasn't the case. For the next few decades, no one even mentioned the idea of stock buy-backs.
因此，股票回购的做法已经消失得无影无踪。如果这种情况一直持续下去就好了，但显然情况并非如此。在接下来的几十年中，甚至没有人提到股票回购的想法。
The entire world wasn't recovery mode, both from the Great Depression and World War 2. America was also super focused on showing up the USSR with capitalism, so allowing corporations to inefficiently spend the reserves on buy-backs was out of the question. But as the stock market blew past its pre-depression highs and America landed people on the moon, Congress became a lot more relaxed.
整个世界都在从大萧条和二战中走出来，美国也非常专注于通过资本主义打败苏联，因此允许企业低效地在回购上支出储备是不可行的。但随着股市突破了大萧条前的高点，美国人登上了月球，国会变得更加放松了。
They were no longer out to prove something. They had already come out on top. So now they were able to focus on personal gain, and what's the easiest way to make money as a politician? Well the answer is to align yourself with the richest business people and corporations around the world.
他们不再想证明什么了。他们已经站在了人生巅峰。所以现在他们能够专注于个人利益，而政治家最容易赚钱的方法是什么呢？答案是与世界各地最富有的商人和公司结盟。
This coincided with yet another economic disaster, the inflation crisis of the 1970s. In the early 1970s, President Nixon would end the gold standard, meaning that US dollars were no longer backed by gold. This led to inflation spiraling out of control, the stock market stagnating and interest rates rising to a painful 19%.
这恰好与另一场经济灾难相遇，即1970年代的通胀危机。在20世纪70年代初，尼克松总统取消了金本位制度，也就意味着美元不再以黄金为支撑。这导致通胀失控，股市停滞不前，利率上升至惨痛的19%。
So when President Ronald Reagan stepped in and suggested doubling down on capitalism, people were more receptive than ever. The logic was that capitalism is what saved America from the Great Depression and made America into a world power. So if we wanted to get back on track, we should just let capitalism do its magic. But that President Reagan would enact a slew of pro-capitalist legislation, now known as a Reaganomics.
当时，当罗纳德·里根总统建议加倍推行资本主义时，人们比以往更加接受。这样做的逻辑是，资本主义拯救了美国免遭大萧条的困扰，并使美国成为世界强国。因此，如果我们想重新回到正轨，就应该让资本主义发挥其神奇的作用。但是，里根总统随后出台了一系列支持资本主义的立法，现在被称为里根经济学。
This included things like slashing personal income tax from 70% down to 28%. Reducing corporate tax from 48% down to 34%, and easing regulations substantially. One of these regulation reducing moves was rule 10b-18, introduced by the SEC in 1982.
这其中包括将个人所得税从70%降至28%、将企业税率从48%降至34%并大幅放宽监管等措施。其中的一项减少监管的举措是SEC于1982年引入的10b-18法规。
As you may have already guessed, this rule created a safe harbor for stock buybacks as long as companies abided by forced populations. These stipulations governed when, where, and how companies were allowed to buy back stock. But complying with these rules is actually completely voluntary.
正如你可能已经猜到的那样，这条规定为股票回购创造了一个安全的港口，只要公司遵守强制规定的规则。这些规定指导了公司何时、何地以及如何允许回购股票。但实际上，遵守这些规则完全是自愿的。
As we previously touched on, the SEC never actually outright banned stock buybacks. So companies could still try to push the limits and buy back stock without following these stipulations. But given that they're pretty easy stipulations to follow, no one has really ever pushed the boundaries.
正如我们之前所提到的，SEC从未完全禁止股票回购。因此，公司仍可以尝试推动限制并在不遵循这些规定的情况下回购股票。但考虑到这些规定非常容易遵循，因此没有人真正突破了界限。
And with that, stock buybacks were officially legal once again. But the practice didn't catch on as quickly as you might expect. You see, back in the 1980s, value investing was way more popular than growth investing. And one of the key attributes that value investors were looking for was a strong and increasing dividend.
随着此举，股票回购再次合法化。但是这种实践并没有像你预期的那样迅速普及。你知道，回到20世纪80年代，价值投资比成长投资流行得多。而价值投资者所追求的一个关键属性是强劲且不断增加的分红。
So whenever companies had extra cash lying around, they far preferred to just pay out larger dividends than buyback stock. Not to mention, companies used to have much more modest profit margins of 10-20%. So they couldn't meaningfully buy back a substantial portion of the company anyway.
因此，每当公司有多余的现金时，他们更喜欢支付更高的股息而不是回购股票。更不用说，公司以前的利润率要低得多，只有10-20%，所以他们无法有效地回购大部分的公司股份。
But all of this would change with the rise of tech. Over time, the mentality of corporations and shareholders slowly shifted, and that this is beautifully documented by statements from the business round table, which is a coalition of top CEOs.
但是，随着科技的崛起，这一切都发生了改变。随着时间的推移，企业和股东的心态逐渐改变，这在商业圆桌会议的声明中得到了美妙的记录，该会议是顶级CEO的联盟。
In 1981, this was the purpose of corporations as defined by these CEOs. Corporations have a responsibility, first of all, to make available to the public, quality goods and services at fair prices. There are by earning a profit that attracts investments to continue an enhanced enterprise provide jobs and build the economy.
1981年，这些首席执行官定义了企业的目的。企业首先有责任以公平的价格向公众提供优质的商品和服务。通过获得利润吸引投资从而继续发展企业，提供工作岗位并促进经济增长。
But by 1997, this was the new purpose of corporations as defined by these CEOs. The principle objective of a business enterprise is to generate economic returns to its owners. If the CEO and the directors are not focused on shareholder value, it may be less likely the corporation will realize that value.
但是到了1997年，这些CEO定义的企业新目标已经改变了。企业的主要目标是为其所有者创造经济回报。如果首席执行官和董事会没有专注于股东价值，那么公司可能不太可能实现这个价值。易读版本：1997年后，CEO们重新定义了企业的目标，其主要职责是为企业所有者创造经济回报。如果企业的CEO和董事会没有关注股东价值，那么可能无法实现该价值。
This probably sounds familiar, as this is a company's run today. The sole purpose of most companies and executives today is to serve shareholders as best as possible. So stock buybacks started looking more and more favorable.
这可能听起来很熟悉，因为今天公司经营的目的大多是为了最大程度地为股东服务。因此，回购股票的做法越来越受欢迎。
But again, no company could afford to spend tens if not hundreds of billions on stock buybacks until Apple, or actually more specifically the iPhone. Apple didn't instantly turn to stock buybacks either though. For the first five years after the launch of the iPhone, they had plenty of expenses regarding scaling production, marketing and R&D.
然而，没有一家公司能够负担得起花费数十亿甚至数百亿来回购股票，直到出现了苹果公司，实际上更具体地说是iPhone。然而，苹果公司在最初并没有立即采取股票回购措施。在iPhone发布后的前五年中，他们有很多费用用于扩大生产规模、市场营销和研发。
But by 2013, Apple had achieved a pretty strong financial position, leading to their first stock buyback. Apple was by no means shy. It didn't start off with the modest one or two billion dollar buyback. They went straight for a tenet billion dollar stock buyback in 2012. And less than 12 months later, they would announce a record-breaking stock buyback of $60 billion.
到了2013年，苹果公司已经拥有了相当强大的财务地位，从而实现了第一次股票回购。苹果公司从来不害羞。他们没有以温和的一两十亿美元的回购开始。他们直接在2012年进行了一项一百亿美元的股票回购。不到12个月后，他们宣布了一项创纪录的六千亿美元的股票回购。
And that was it. From then on out, Apple has been the undisputed king of stock buybacks, pouring in tens of billions into buybacks every single year. All of this brings up the question, is Apple trying to go private and is that even possible? Well with Apple's market cap ballooning to $2 to $3 trillion, it's becoming less and less possible. But in the late 2010s, it was very much possible. In fact, in 2017, Apple was on track to buyback 50% of itself by 2020.
从那时起，苹果公司一直是股票回购领域的无可争议之王，每年将数十亿美元投入回购。这引发了一个问题，苹果是否试图私有化，甚至这可能吗？考虑到苹果的市值已经飙升至2到3万亿美元，这变得越来越不可能了。但在2010年代末，它是完全可能的。事实上，在2017年，苹果公司计划在2020年前回购其50%的股份。
So going private was not out of reach per se, but this was never part of the plan. You see, when Apple buys back shares, they're not putting the shares in some sort of company treasury. Rather, they're burning the shares and removing it from the supply. So the shares that Apple is buying back are basically being donated to all shareholders in proportion to their ownership. So with that being said, Apple is by no means going private and that is just a myth.
因此，私有化并不是不可能的，但这从未是计划的一部分。你们知道，当苹果公司回购股票时，他们并不是把股票放入某种公司财库中。相反，他们会消耗这些股票，将其从供应中移除。因此，苹果公司回购的股票基本上是按照所有股东的所有比例捐赠的。所以，苹果公司绝不会私有化，这只是一个误解。
People are often critical of stock buybacks, but the reality is that stock buybacks are just the tip of the iceberg. The bigger underlying trend is that the entire purpose of corporations is shifting. Originally, the purpose of corporations was to create value in the marketplace while generating a respectable profit. But nowadays, the sole purpose of corporations is to serve shareholders no matter the cost. Stock buybacks are just one example of this trend, but thereby no means the only issue.
人们常常对股票回购表示批评，但事实是，股票回购只是冰山一角。更大的潜在趋势是，公司的整体目的正在转变。最初，公司的目的是在市场上创造价值并产生可观的利润。但现在，公司的唯一目的是为股东服务，不顾一切代价。股票回购只是这种趋势的一个例子，但绝非唯一的问题。
With that being said though, it doesn't seem like this trend will be changing anytime soon, because that's not in the executive's best interest. You see, as companies engage in stock buybacks, lobby for lower taxes, lobby for less regulation and maximize profits, shareholders are much more willing to pick executives more and more. In 1965, the average CEO was paid at 20 times the average worker at the company. Today, the average CEO is paid at 399 times the average worker at the same company.
话虽如此，似乎这种趋势不会很快改变，因为这并不符合高管的最佳利益。您知道，随着企业进行股票回购、游说降低税收、游说减少管制和最大化利润，股东越来越愿意选择高管。在1965年，公司平均每位CEO的薪酬是普通员工的20倍。如今，在同一家公司中，平均每位CEO的薪酬是普通员工的399倍。
So as long as this ratio keeps increasing, you can bet that Apple and every other company will continue betting big on stock buybacks. Did you realize how much Apple has spent on buybacks? Comment that down below. Also, drop a like if you think that Apple makes way too much money. And of course, consider checking out our Discord community, suggest video ideas and consider subscribing to see more questions that actually answered. Until then, I'm Hori, and I'll see you guys on the next one.
只要这个比率持续增加，你可以打赌苹果和其他公司都会继续大力购买股票回购。你有没有意识到苹果已经花了多少钱在回购上？在下面评论一下。如果你认为苹果赚钱太多了，也可以点赞。当然，考虑加入我们的Discord社区，提出视频创意，并考虑订阅以查看更多有意义的问题的答案。在此期间，我是Hori，下一期再见。