Berkshire's 2023 annual shareholder meeting: Watch the full morning session with Warren Buffett
发布时间 2023-05-08 11:15:13 来源
Good morning. Good morning. And thanks for coming. All my loves it. I love it. Charlie loves it. We're glad to have you here.
We're going to make this this preliminary before the question is very short because we want to get it at least 60 questions have to buy it by the audience outside this arena and a half from you. So I would just like to get right to the directors and the earnings that have been put up on the web page this morning. But we'll cover those very fast and we'll get to the questions now.
早上好。早上好。感谢你们的到来。我们所有人都喜欢它。我喜欢它。查理喜欢它。我们很高兴你们来了。接下来我们将先进行一个预备环节，因为我们希望从你们这里得到至少60个问题，这些问题将来自于场外的观众。所以我想直接说说今天早上在网页上发布的财务数据。但我们会很快去处理它们，然后就开始回答问题了。
I when I woke up this morning I realized that we had a competitive broadcast going out somewhere in the UK and they were celebrating a King Charles and we've got our own King Charles here today. And next to him we have Greg Able, who's in charge of all the operations except for insurance. Next. And next to Greg we have a man I ran into a 1986 and has made us look good ever since. We have a man in charge of insurance.
当我今天早上醒来时，我意识到我们在英国的某个地方进行了一场竞争性的广播，并且他们正在庆祝查尔斯国王，而我们今天也有自己的国王查尔斯。接下来是格雷格·艾布尔先生，他负责除保险之外的所有运营。然后，在格雷格旁边，是我在1986年遇见的一位对我们一直表现良好的男士，他负责保险事务。
And now we have our directors here in front and if they would just stand briefly and then I'll go on to the next one and they're all here today. First of all doing alphabetically. George Buffett. There's Susie Buffett. There's Steve Burke. Ken Schaul. Charlotte Diamond. And Marrow Whitburn.
现在我们的董事们在这里，如果他们能短暂地站起来，然后我就会继续下一个董事。他们今天都在这里。首先按字母顺序排列。乔治·巴菲特。有苏茜·巴菲特。还有史蒂夫·伯克。肯·绍尔。夏洛特·戴蒙德。还有马罗·惠特伯恩。
There's one other person I would like to mention before we get on to the earnings that we're put on the press release this morning. That's, well let's see who we have here. This is hard to believe. Can you imagine a name? Melissa Shapiro Shapiro. She was Melissa Shapiro, to Samaritan, another Shapiro. And she put this whole thing together with no help from me, no help from Charlie. And a lot of help from the people of the other room. Melissa. Yeah. Very easy. If you can remember her second name, you can remember her third name. So, Melissa Shapiro.
在我们谈到今天早上发布的收入之前，还有一个人我想要提到。让我们看看我们这里有谁。这很难相信。你能想象出这个名字吗？Melissa Shapiro Shapiro。她曾是Melissa Shapiro，现在是Samaritan的Shapiro。她没有得到我或查理的任何帮助，而是得到了其他团队成员的帮助，完成了整个项目。Melissa，很容易记住。如果你能记住她的姓和名，就能记住她的中间名。因此，Melissa Shapiro。
And with that I would like to next move on to the earnings in a couple small slides that explain what we're all about and then we're going to get to the Q&A. And the slide is up behind me. There it is. We reported in the first quarter operating earnings, a little over 8 billion. And when we talk about operating earnings, we're basically referring to the earnings of a virtual half away as generally, well, as required under GAP, excluding however, capital gains both realized and unrealized.
接下来，我想从几张小幻灯片上了解我们的收益情况，然后进入问答环节。我身后有一张幻灯片。我们报告了第一季度的营业收益，超过80亿美元。当我们谈到营业收益时，通常是指根据公认会计准则的要求，排除已实现和未实现的资本收益，对虚拟的部分进行核算。
There's a few other very minor items. But basically, we expect to make capital gains over time. Why would we only sucks otherwise? It doesn't always work out, but overall it works out pretty well over time. But in any day, any quarter, any year, even occasionally over a five-year period, the stock prices move around capriciously. Now, we own a lot of other businesses. We consider those stocks businesses. We own a lot of other businesses where they get consolidated. And they don't move around in value.
这里还有一些其他非常小的事项。但基本上，我们期望随着时间的推移获得资本收益。否则我们为什么还会持有股票呢？虽然并非总是如此，但随着时间的推移，总体上表现得相当出色。但在任何一天、任何一个季度、任何一年，甚至偶尔在一个五年的时期中，股票价格会在无规律的时候波动。现在，我们拥有许多其他企业。我们把这些股票视为企业。我们拥有许多其他企业，这些企业得到了合并。它们的价值不会波动。
Now, if we had a little bit of Burlington stock outstanding, if we had a little bit of the energy stock trading, those stocks would move around a lot. But the businesses are what count. So the operating earnings, as you'll see in the first quarter, came under the body billion. And I would say that in the general economy, the feedback we get is that, I would say perhaps the majority of our businesses will actually report lower earnings this year than last year.
如果我们持有一点点的伯灵顿股票，或者能源股票交易，这些股票的波动会很大。但是，业务才是重点。所以，正如你将在第一季度看到的，营业收益低于百亿。我认为，在普遍的经济环境中，我们所得到的反馈是，我认为或许我们大多数的业务今年的盈利将比去年低。
The embarrassed degrees in the last six months or so at various times. The businesses have left the incredible period, which is about as extraordinary as I've seen in business since World War II, where the government would board out a lot of money to people who couldn't get goods. It was more extreme in World War II. But this was extreme this time. And it was just a question of getting goods to deliver and people bought. And they didn't wait for sales. And if you couldn't solve them one thing, they would put another thing in the backlog. It was an extraordinary period. And that period, as ended, it has ended with, as you know, it didn't, that employment fell along off a cliff or anything in the least.
在过去的六个月中，尴尬的情况时有发生。这些企业经历了一个惊人的时期，自二战以来我所见过的商业经历中大概是最不寻常的一次。政府会向那些无法购买商品的人们提供大量的资金。在二战期间，这种情况更加严重。但这次情况也十分严峻。问题就在于如何获得物资来提供给消费者，而消费者也买得很急切。他们不等待促销活动。如果你不能处理好一件事情，他们就会把另一件事情放在待办列表中。这是一个非常不同寻常的时期，但随着这个时期结束，就像你所知道的，雇佣人数并没有大幅下降。
But it is a different climate than it was six months ago. And an upper of our managers were surprised, some of them had too much inventory on order. And then all of a sudden it got delivered. And people weren't in the same frame of mind as earlier. And now we'll start having sales at places where we didn't need to have sales before.
现在的气候跟六个月前已经不同了。我们的经理们有些惊讶，因为他们中的一些人订购了太多的库存。突然间，所有的库存全部送到了。人们的心态与之前不同了。现在，我们将在以前不必要的地方开展销售活动。
But despite the fact that this year, I think in general, will be slower than last year, we actually are situated so that I would expect. And believe me, when I say accept, expect, it's nothing is sure, nothing sure tomorrow, nothing sure next year, and nothing is ever sure, either in markets or in business, or in business forecasts or anything else. And we don't pay much attention to markets or forecasts unless the markets happen off or something interesting to do.
尽管我认为今年的总体速度比去年要慢，但我们的现状是我所期望的。然而，请相信我说的“期望”并不代表确定，因为无论是市场、业务还是业务预测，或者其他任何事情，未来都没有什么是确定的。我们不关注市场或预测，除非市场出现了什么有趣的事情需要我们去做。
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But nevertheless, we are positioned in two respects as you'll see from this first report. Our investment income is going to be a lot larger this year than last year. And that's built in. I mean, we had, as you'll see in a minute, we've had 125 billion or so in very short-term investments. And believe it or not, not that long ago, we were getting four basis points, which is next to nothing on that 125 billion, which means we were getting 50 million a year. And now they say money, they're just there a day before yesterday.
尽管如此，从这份第一份报告中可以看出，我们在两方面处于有利位置。我们的投资收入今年将比去年大得多。这是已经内置的。我的意思是，正如您一分钟后会看到的那样，我们有大约1250亿美元的非常短期的投资。信不信由你，不久以前，我们在这1250亿美元上仅获得了四个基点，几乎没有什么，这意味着我们每年只有5000万美元的收入。现在他们说钱只是在前天到达的。
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We actually bought, because of some funny twist in the market, because of doubts about the deficit ceiling or the debt ceiling. We bought three billion of bills at a 590. That's 5.9. That's 5.92. Bond equivalent yields. So we will have what produced us not that long ago on a 12-month basis, was producing 50 million a year, producing something in the area of 5 billion a year. So we're in a position where the investment income is essentially, well, it is certain to increase quite a bit.
由于市场上的某些奇怪波动，还有对赤字天花板或债务天花板的疑虑，我们实际上买了三十亿美元的票据，购价为590，即5.9%的债券等价收益率。因此，我们将获得一年产生的50百万美元的投资收益，现在却可以获得大约50亿美元的投资收益。所以我们现在的投资回报将显著增加。
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And insurance underwriting is not, it does not correlate with business activity. It depends on things like hurricanes and earthquakes and other events. So on a perspective basis, on a probability basis, we're likely to have a better year this year, an insurance underwriting that we had last year. It just isn't affected by what you might call the business cycle, or what applies to generally an industry, a retailing, your name it. So I would expect, in one massive earthquake, or one hurricane that came in at just the wrong place, would kind of affect that prediction, but on a probabilistic basis, our insurance looks better this year.
保险承保与业务活动无关，它取决于飓风、地震和其他事件。因此，从概率的角度来看，我们今年在保险承保方面可能会比去年更好。它不受所谓的商业周期，或者适用于任何行业（如零售业等）的影响。因此，我认为，一次大规模地震或飓风的到来可能会影响这一预测，但从概率的角度来看，我们的保险在今年看起来更好。
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So if you get two of those, two of the elements there of our main elements of earnings, that look like they will swing in our direction, I would expect, but I can't promise that our operating and earnings will be greater than last year. And if we'll move to the second slide, I give you those operating earnings figures, just to give you an overview of what has happened since the pandemic started, and often the year before as a base. And we retain all our earnings, as you know.
因此，如果我们的两个主要收益元素中的两个看起来会朝我们的方向转变，我预期，但我不能保证，我们的经营收益将比去年更高。如果我们转到第二张幻灯片，我会给您呈现营业收益的数据，让您了解自从疫情开始以来以及前一年的情况基础。正如您所知，我们保留了所有的收益。
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So if we're retaining 30 or 35 billion, or whatever, but it may be a year, you should expect more operating earnings over time. I mean, this number should be significantly higher, five or ten or 15 years from now, because we have the advantage of retaining earnings, and that's what got us to these figures, because they were essentially nothing when we started, and they got there by retaining earnings, and we'll keep retaining earnings.
因此，如果我们保留了30或35亿美元，或其他任何金额，但可能需要一年时间，您应该期望随着时间推移获得更多的营收。我的意思是，这个数字未来5年、10年或15年应该会显著增加，因为我们有保留盈余的优势，这就是我们得以获得这些财务数字的原因，因为在我们起步时，这些数字基本上是没有的，通过保留盈余我们才得到了现在的成果，我们将继续保留盈余。
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So it's no great triumph if these numbers move up, and what we hope is that they move up at a reasonable rate. Historically, they moved up at an unreasonable rate sometimes, but we were working with a much smaller sum then, and that can't be repeated with our present capital base, because I know there, I believe it's on this slide, let's take a look.
因此，如果这些数字上升，这并不是什么伟大的胜利，我们希望它们能以一个合理的速度上升。历史上，它们有时会以不合理的速度上升，但那时我们的资本基础要小得多，现在无法重复，因为我知道，在这张幻灯片上可能有显示，我们来看一下。
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Now that will be, let's see, it's on the next place paid, and let's move to the next slide. We showed that we had on March 31st, now 500 and, was it 504 billion, upgap net worth. Now what I'm surprised you, is that there's no other company in the United States, no other company, that has a number that is that large. Now that isn't because we've got the most valuable company in the United States. Other companies have used their money to repurchase shares, they could have accumulated 504 billion in gap, but basically we have more under gap accounting now than any other company in the US, and of course if you measure return on equity, that becomes a very big number to increase at a rapid rate, but we hope to do so. Not a rapid rate, additional rate.
现在，让我们看看我们的下一名付款者，然后切换到下一张幻灯片。我们展示了我们在3月31日的上涨后，500亿美元，是不是504亿美元，所有净值。我惊讶的是，美国没有其他公司的数字那么大。这并不是因为我们是美国最有价值的公司。其他公司已经用他们的钱回购股票，他们也积累了5040亿美元的差距，但基本上我们在现在的差距会计下面比美国的任何其他公司都多。当然，如果您衡量股东权益回报率，这将以快速的速度成为一个非常大的数字，但我们希望这样做，不是一个快速的速度，而是一个附加的速度。
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And right below that you see something called float, and float is money that is left in our hands somewhat akin but very importantly different than a bank deposit. But you have to pay interest to get a bank deposit. You have to pay more interest these days, and you have to run a bank and do a lot of things. And basically this is money that represents unpaid losses at this time, you get paid in advance in insurance.
在这下面，你会看到一些被称为浮动的东西，浮动是指留在我们手中的钱，有些相似但非常重要不同于银行存款。但你必须支付利息来获取银行存款。现在你要支付更多的利息，还要经营银行和做很多事情。基本上，这是代表目前未支付损失的货币，你在保险中提前得到付款。
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So what shows up as a net liability on our balance sheet, is gives us funds to exercise with an amount of discretion that no other insurance company that I know in the world enjoys just because we have so much net worth. And our float now comes to 165 billion, and the man sitting on the far left is responsible for moving that number up from a piton in 1986 to this incredible figure, which in most years, practically all years, hasn't cost us anything.
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我们负债净额在财务报表上展示，但事实上我们拥有足够的资金去进行支配，这是我所知道的其他任何一家保险公司都无法匹敌的。这是因为我们的净值非常高。我们现在的资产总额达到了1650亿美元。坐在最左侧的那个人对把这个数字从1986年的某个很小的数值提高到这个令人难以置信的数字负有责任。而在大多数年份里，这些资产几乎不需要我们花费任何成本。
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So it's like having a bank with no employees, no interest, and no ability to withdraw the money in a hurry that we have working for us. And it's a very valuable asset that shows up as a liability, and a cheat is responsible for building up this treasure, which has been done by out competing insurance companies all over the world, and now a number of our insurance companies in turn are run by talented managers who contributed one way or. another start with Guykel, the B&M I career, and that float.
这就像拥有一家没有员工、没有利息、也不能随时取钱的银行为我们工作。这是一项非常有价值的资产，显示为负债，而保险欺诈是负责建立这个宝藏的人，这是通过在全球竞争保险公司的情况下完成的，现在我们的一些保险公司由才华横溢的经理运营，他们的起点是 Guykel、B&M I 职业生涯和那个资金池。
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If you think about it, just think of a balance sheet. You've got liabilities here, and you've got assets over here, and the liability side finances, the asset side is very simple. And stockholders equity finances it, long-term debt finances, and so on, but stockholders equity is very expensive in a real sense.
如果你思考一下，就想象一下资产负债表。这边是负债，那边是资产，负债方面的融资很复杂，而资产方面则很简单。股东权益进行融资，长期债务进行融资等等，但从实际意义上来说，股东权益是非常昂贵的。
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Long-term debt has been cheap for a while, but it can get expensive, and it can also become due eventually, and it may not be available. But float is another item that shows up. That's all liability, but hasn't cost us anything, and it can't disappear in a hurry, and it finances the asset side in the same way as stockholders equity.
长期债务一直以来都很便宜，但它的成本可能上涨，还可能最终到期，而且可能无法获得。不过，流动资金是另一种出现的项目。虽然它也是一种负债，但它没有花费我们任何成本，而且不能很快消失，它以相同的方式为资产方面提供了股东权益。
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And nobody else thinks of it much that way, but we've always thought about that way, and it's built up over time. So I show at the bottom what's happened with cash and treasury bills through March 31, and I will tell you that in the month of April, we probably added about $7 billion to that factor. Not part of that, because we didn't buy as much stock, because that reduces cash and treasury bills. We bought about $400 million with the stock in the month of April.
没有其他人那样想过这件事，但我们一直想过并且这个想法随着时间逐渐积累起来。因此，我在下面展示了3月31日现金和国库券的情况，我要告诉你，在4月份我们可能会增加大约70亿美元的现金和国库券。这不包括购买更多的股票，因为这会降低现金和国库券的比例。我们在4月份购买了约4亿美元的股票。
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That's a minus in terms of cash available. And we, however, sold net some stock, which produced maybe $4 billion. And of course, we had operating earnings, probably $2.5 billion or something in that area. And my guess is we probably increased our cash and treasury bills, $6.7 billion in the month. And I just want to give you a feel for how the cash flows at Berkshire.
这在现金可用方面是一项损失。不过，我们卖了一些净股票，可能产生了40亿美元。当然，我们的运营收益也达到了约25亿美元左右。我的猜测是，我们在这个月内可能增加了67亿美元的现金和国库券。我只是想让你们了解伯克希尔的现金流是如何运作的。
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And then if we move to the final, I think it's the final one, next to last one. Now, I think it is the last one. Let's see, is the fourth. Yeah, we should have the one up there, class A equivalent shares outstanding. And you'll notice that every year, the number of our shares go down. So if we own more businesses, and the businesses make more money, share our shareholders, as owners, a Berkshire increases every year without you laying out any money.
然后，我们来看最后一个表格，应该是倒数第二个。嗯，现在我确定是最后一个了，它是第四个表格。是的，我们应该看到那个“类A优先股流通数量”。你会注意到，每年我们的股份数量都在减少。因此，如果我们拥有更多的企业，并且这些企业赚的钱越来越多，那么我们的股东作为业主的股份就会不断地增加，而你则不需要花费任何资金。
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Now, you're laying out the alternative, which you could receive in dividends. But the reason we've gotten to where we are is because we kept the money. We did pay a dividend in 1967, in ten cents to share. It was a terrible mistake. I always tell people that I'd left the men's room and the director's vote in the wall was gone, but that isn't true. I was there. I confess. But we very invested, and as produced, the 500 billion plus of shareholders' equity in the 30 billion plus of operating earnings. And we'll continue to follow that policy, because it makes a very deal of sense.
现在，你提出了另一个选择，你可以通过股息获得利润。但是我们之所以能走到今天，就是因为我们一直保有这些资金。1967年我们确实发放了每股10美分的股息，这是一个可怕的错误。我总是告诉人们，我去了男洗手间，董事票投完之后它就不见了，但这并不是真的。我当时在场，我承认错误。但我们非常有投资价值，并在生产中，将500亿及以上的股东权益转化为30亿及以上的经营收益。我们将继续遵循这一政策，因为这是非常有意义的。
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And with that, I think we've taken care of the plumber. You can study that the 10Q is on the webpage. And if you have a week or two vacation, you could spend it reading the 10Q. But that is the essence of Berkshire, and with that, I will start with Becky Quick. And we will alternate between Becky and the audience and her questions have come in from all over the country. And I believe you identified the sender and go to it, Becky.
我认为我们已经讨论完了管道工的问题。你们可以去网站查看10Q文件。如果你有一到两周的假期，可以花时间阅读10Q。这就是伯克希尔的基本情况。现在我想由贝基·昆尔回答问题。我们将在贝基和观众之间轮流提问，并且回答来自全国各地的问题。贝基，你可以识别发件人并开始提问了。
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Thanks, Warren. The first question comes in from Randy Jeffs in Irvine, California. And his question is, if Silicon Valley banks deposit had not been fully covered, what do you think the economic consequences would have been to the nation? Well, I would just simply say it would have been catastrophic. And that's why they were covered. And even though the FDIC limit is $250,000, that's the way the statute reads. But that is not the way the US is going to behave. Any more than they're going to let the Dutch ceiling cause the world to go into turmoil.
谢谢，沃伦。第一个问题来自加利福尼亚州尔湾的兰迪·杰夫斯。他的问题是，如果硅谷银行的存款没有得到完全保障，你认为对国家的经济后果会是什么呢？我只能简单地说，那将是灾难性的。这就是为什么它们得到了保障。即使FDIC的限额是25万美元，这是法律规定的。但这并不是美国的行为方式。就像他们不会让荷兰天花板引起全球动荡一样。
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And they... Well, they're just... I can't imagine anybody in the administration, in the Congress, in the federal reserve, whatever it may have been, FDIC. I can't imagine anybody saying, I'd like to be the one I'm on television tomorrow and explain the American public why we're keeping only $250,000 insured. And we're going to start around every bag in the country and disrupt the world financial system. So, I think it was inevitable. It's hardly the enemy. No, I have nothing to add.
他们……唉，他们只是……我无法想象在政府、国会、联邦储备银行或FDIC等组织中，有人会说：“我想成为明天电视上阐述为什么我们只保险25万美元的那个人，我想解释给美国公众听。而且我们将在这个国家的每个角落开始打包，破坏世界金融系统。”所以，我认为这是不可避免的。这几乎不是敌人。不，我没什么可补充的。
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I should mention this now. A cheat and Greg will be here in the morning session, which ends at noon. And so, if you've got questions to direct to them, the time to do it is in the first half of the show. And then after lunch, it'll just show and I will be back.
我现在应该提一下。Cheat 和 Greg 会在早上的节目期间出现，这个节目会在中午结束。因此，如果你有问题要问他们，最好在节目的前半部分进行。午餐后，只有我和节目将会回来。
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Hi. Nerov Patel, Hey, Real Massachusetts. Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, it seems like you've found the sweet spot between being too conservative and too aggressive as investors. Do you ever make bad investment decisions because of your emotions and what do you do to try to keep that from happening?
你好，我是来自马萨诸塞州的Nerov Patel。巴菲特先生，芒格先生，你们似乎找到了投资方面过于保守和过于激进之间的“甜蜜点”。您会因情绪而做出糟糕的投资决策吗？您会怎么做来防止这种情况发生？
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Well, we make bad investment decisions. A lot of times I make more than Charlie because I like to think it's because I make more decisions but probably more bad things I wish was. But I can't recall any time in the history of Berkshire that we made an emotional decision. I know the movie had Jamie Lee in there, but that was for laughs. Jamie Lee, she's good, but she's not good enough to get mere Charlie to make an emotional decision. Yeah. Charlie, I'm sure you have something to add on that.
我们经常做出糟糕的投资决策。有很多时候我比查理赚得更多，因为我会想象这是因为我做出了更多的决定，但很可能大部分都是糟糕的决定。但是，在伯克希尔公司历史上，我想不起来有任何一次是出于情感做出的决定。我知道电影里有杰米·李·柯蒂斯，但那是为了笑话而已。杰米·李·柯蒂斯很好，但不足以使查理做出情感决定。是的，查理，我相信你有一些补充。
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Well, it's a different movie than it's shown in most corporate meetings. But have we ever made an emotional decision? No. That's in business we're talking about. Yeah. Now, you don't want to be a no-emotion person in all of your life, but you definitely want to be a no-emotion person in making an investment or business decision. You can argue that.
这部电影与在大多数公司会议中展示的电影不同。但是，我们曾经做出过情感决策吗？没有。这就是我们谈论的商业。是的。现在，你不想成为一位毫无情感的人，但是在进行投资或商业决策时，你绝对希望成为一位毫无情感的人。你可以对此进行争论。
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We probably, I would say that we've made an emotional decision perhaps in what a manager has been with us for some period. And we've ignored the fact that perhaps they weren't quite what they were earlier. But our businesses are so good that they run better sometimes when we know I've talked about West Goal, for example, the wonderful Louisville incentive. It ran on an automatic pilot for a while, but I don't think we suffered a buyout. But you're going to argue that if Charlie and I had liked Louis as much as we did, we might have spotted a little bit early. But I don't think it made any difference in the results. Would you agree with that, Charlie?
我认为，我们可能是出于情感决定，因为某位经理和我们一起工作了一段时间。我们忽略了他们可能并不像之前那么出色的事实。但我们的企业非常出色，有时在我们了解到如威斯特戈尔的卢易斯威利时，它们可能会运行得更好，它们具有自动化程度。它运行了一段时间，但我认为我们并没有因此遭受收购。但你可能会争辩说，如果查理和我喜欢卢易斯像之前一样，我们可能会更早地注意到一些问题。但我认为这对结果没有任何影响，你同意吗，查理？
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Yeah, you're going to be totally with it. And I'm glad we behaved the way we did at West Goal. By the way, what do you think for a few tens of millions and it became worth $3 billion? Yeah, that wasn't common in the savings and loan business you may have noticed. They really went crazy in that industry and we had a wonderful guy in Louis. He didn't go crazy. Yeah, we didn't go crazy.
是的，你会完全明白的。我很高兴我们在威斯特戈尔的举止是正确的。顺便问一下，你觉得只需要几千万美元的投资，变成价值30亿美元的事情怎么样？你可能注意到，在储蓄贷款业中这种情况并不常见。他们真的在这个行业里变得疯狂了，但我们有个了不起的人物路易斯。他没有像其他人那样疯狂。是的，我们也没有疯狂。
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Okay, Becky. This question comes from Ben Nol in Minneapolis. He says he's a Berkshire shareholder of three decades and he's attended many Berkshire meetings. He's here again this year. And this is addressed to a G and Greg. He says last year I asked you about how Geico and BNSF appeared to lose ground to their leading competitors. He said he's going to go on telematics and BNSF on precision scheduled railroading. A G, you responded by saying how you expected Geico to make progress in a year or two. Greg, you spoke about your pride in BNSF but you didn't directly address the threat of precision scheduled railroading. Will each of you please provide perspective on these competitive challenges and our company's strategies to address them?
好的，贝基。这个问题来自明尼阿波利斯的本·诺尔。他说他是伯克希尔公司的股东已经三十年了，参加过许多伯克希尔的会议。他今年又来了。这封信写给G和Greg。他说去年他问过你们有关Geico和BNSF看起来似乎失去了领先竞争对手的优势。他说他要谈到行车追踪和BNSF关于精密调度铁路。G，你回答说你预期Geico在一两年内会取得进展。Greg，你谈到了你对BNSF的自豪，但没有直接回答精密调度铁路的威胁。请你们每个人就这些竞争挑战和我们公司应对它们的战略提供一些看法。
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Let me. In terms of Geico and telematics, let me make the observation that Geico has certainly taken the ball by the horns and has made rapid strides in terms of trying to reach the gap in terms of telematics and its competitors. They have now reached a point where on all new business, close to 90% is has a telematics input to the pricing decision. Unfortunately, less than half of that is being taken up by the policyholders. The other point I want to make is even though we have made improvements in terms of bridging the gap on telematics, we still haven't started to realize the true benefit and the real culprit of the bottleneck is technology.
让我来谈谈Geico和远程测控技术。我观察到Geico已经积极推进远程测控技术，试图在与竞争对手的博弈中跨越鸿沟。他们已经达到了一个状态，所有新业务中将近90%的业务在定价决策中都考虑了远程测控技术。然而，不幸的是，只有不到一半的保单持有人采用了这一技术。 另一个观点是，尽管我们在远程测控技术领域取得了一定的进展，但我们仍未开始实现真正的好处。而瓶颈的真正罪魁祸首是技术问题。
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Geico's technology needs a lot more work than I thought it did. It has more than 500 actually, more than 600 legacy systems that don't really talk to each other and we try to compress them to no more than 15, 16 systems that all talk to each other. That's a monumental challenge and because of that, even though we have made improvements in telematics, we still have a long way to go because of technology. Because of that and because of the whole issue, more broadly in terms of matching rate to risk, Geico is still working progress.
盖克保险公司的技术需要比我想象的更多的工作。它有超过500个遗留系统，实际上超过600个，这些系统并不真正相互通信，我们试图将它们压缩成不超过15，16个系统，这些系统都彼此通信。这是一个巨大的挑战，正因为如此，尽管我们在遥感技术方面取得了改进，但由于技术问题，我们仍有很长的路要走。由于这个问题广泛存在，与风险匹配率有关，盖克保险公司仍然在不断进步中。
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I don't know if you had a chance to look at the first quarter results, but Geico has had a very good first quarter coming in at a combined ratio of 93 and change, which means a margin of six and change. Even though that's very good, it's not something we can take to the bank because there are two unusual items that contribute to it. Firstly, we've had what is called prior year reserve releases. We've reduced reserves for the previous years and that contributed to it. And secondly, every year, the first quarter tends to be a seasonally good quarter for auto insurance writers.
我不知道你有没有看过第一季度的业绩，但是Geico的第一季度非常好，综合比率在93个百分点左右，这意味着有6个百分点的保险盈利。尽管这非常不错，但我们不能把它视为铁板钉钉的因为有两个不寻常的项目对此有贡献。首先，我们进行所谓的往年准备金释放，即减少了之前几年的储备金，这对业绩有贡献。其次，每年的第一季度往往是汽车保险公司的淡季，这也为我们带来了利润。
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So if you had just for those two factors, my guess is the end of the year Geico will end up with a combined ratio just south of 100 as opposed to the target they're shooting for is 96. I hope they reach the target of 96 by the end of next year. But instead of getting too excited about it, I think it's important to realize that even if we reach 96, it will come at the expense of having lost policy holders. There is a trade-off between profitability and growth. And clearly, we're going to emphasize profitability and not growth and that will come at the expense of policy holders. So it will not be until two years from now that we'll be back on track fighting the battles on both the profitability and growth threat.
如果仅考虑这两个因素，我猜想吉柯保险公司到年底的综合赔付率将会略低于100，而他们的目标是96。我希望他们能在明年年底达到96的目标。但是，我们不应该过于激动，重要的是要认识到，即使达到96，也会以失去保单持有人为代价。盈利能力和增长之间存在权衡。显然，我们将强调盈利能力而不是增长，这将以保单持有人为代价。因此，要到两年后，我们才能在盈利能力和增长之间找到平衡。
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Great. Yep. Moving to BNSF. I'll start again by expressing great pride in the BNSF team. We have an exceptional group of led by Katie and her managers that show up every day to do great work on the railroad. At the same time, they would be the first acknowledged. There's more to be done there. The specific reference to precision, schedule, railroading.
太好了。没错。我们转移到BNSF。我要再次表达对BNSF团队的骄傲。我们有一支由Katie和她的管理团队领导的非凡团队，他们每天都在铁路上做出了杰出的工作。同时，他们也会承认还有更多工作要做。这里具体涉及精度、进度和铁路运输。
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The other large railroad class A, other railroads in the US follow that, and including the two in Canada. We're well aware of what they're doing and obviously pay close attention to their operating metrics. And our team strives every day to be more efficient, obviously. I would say we balance it with the needs of our customers. If I look back to pre-2022, so we look at the three-year period of 2019, 2020, 2021, the BNSF team made significant progress on their efficiencies and delivering overall value back to the shareholders and to their customers.
另一种大型铁路公司A类，美国其他铁路公司也遵循这一模式，包括加拿大的两个铁路公司。我们很清楚他们在做什么，显然会密切关注他们的运营数据。我们的团队每天都在努力提高效率。我认为我们会将客户需求与之平衡。如果回顾2022年之前的情况，我们可以看看2019年、2020年和2021年这三年的时间，BNSF团队在提高效率、为股东和客户提供整体价值方面取得了重大进展。
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And at the same time maintaining a very safe railroad for our employees. So we're making excellent progress. That didn't stop last year. They made great progress. Again, the reality in 2022 is we did go through a period of time where we had to call it reset the railroad. We came out of the pandemic. There were the supply challenges. We had certain other labor issues and other things going on at the port.
同时，我们要确保为员工提供非常安全的铁路服务。所以我们正在取得出色的进展。去年并没有停滞。去年取得了巨大的进步。但现实是，在2022年我们经历了一段时间需要重新调整铁路。我们走出了疫情，但面临着供应挑战、港口的一些劳工问题以及其他一些问题。
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And the reality is our team prioritized getting the railroad back in place for the long term. Not a short-term focus on hitting certain operating metrics in 2022, we're well aware of where we were relative to those metrics. But the real focus was to get the railroad reset in a safe manner, such that we could deliver long-term value and long-term service to our customers. And that's really what we'll continue to see with that team.
现实情况是，我们的团队将重建铁路视为长期优先事项。我们没有将注意力放在2022年达成某些运营指标的短期目标上，我们非常清楚我们相对于那些指标的现状。但真正的重点是以安全的方式重新设置铁路，以便为客户提供长期价值和长期服务。这正是我们将继续看到的该团队的做法。
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They'll be continual progress. They'll be years where it's not as quickly or even we go backwards. But over the long term, we'll see exceptional results from that team and couldn't be more proud that we have that asset.
虽然有些年份进步速度可能会放缓或者甚至退步，但我们相信这个团队会不断取得进步。从长远来看，我们将看到这个团队取得非凡的成果，我们为拥有这个资产感到无比自豪。
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Thank you. I would just... Well, both of them deserve applause. I would like to add one thing. The... at Geico.com's was a jeep choice, my choice. Go back to Geico to work on the problem of matching rate to risk, which is what insurance is all about. And he arrived with exquisite timing right before the pandemic broke out. And all kinds of things changed. But Todd was doing a wonderful job at Geico. And he works closely with the jeep, because he... So, as a home in Omaha, he comes back here and we get to get on the weekend sometimes too. So, that's been a remarkable accomplishment under difficult circumstances.
谢谢。我只是想说一下……两个人都值得鼓励。我想再加一句。在 Geico.com 上的选择是我选择的吉普车。回到 Geico，解决匹配风险的费率问题，这正是保险所涉及的。他恰到好处地在疫情爆发前到达。而且各种事情都发生了变化。但是托德在吉科做得非常好。他与吉普车密切合作，因为他……在奥马哈有一个家，所以他回到这里，我们有时候也会周末见面。所以，在困难的情况下取得了卓越的成就。
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And he's not all the way home, but he's made a very, very big change in multiple ways at Geico. And one other thing I would like to mention, there have been a lot of public companies created in the last decade, or there are about some insurance.
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他还没有完全回家，但他在多个方面为Geico做出了非常大的改变。还有一件事我想提一下，过去十年中有很多公开公司成立，其中一些是保险公司。
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And there's none of them that we would like to own. And they always started out in their perspective saying, this is a tech company, not an insurance company. Well, of course, they're in a tech company with everybody's...
我们都不希望拥有它们中的任何一家。它们总是从自己的角度出发说，这是一家科技公司，而不是一家保险公司。当然，他们是一家科技公司，但是所有人都...
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Whether they're an insurance or a lot of other places, or using the facility, but you still have to properly match rate to risk. And they invariably have reported to use losses. They've eaten up capital. But there's been one company that nobody has generally heard of. There's only been one that I know of. Companies started in the last ten years. That has been an overwhelming success.
不管是保险公司还是其他地方，或者使用设施，你仍然必须将费率正确匹配风险。它们通常会报告损失。它们消耗了资本。但有一家公司很少被人们所知道。在过去十年中只有一家公司。它已成为一个压倒性的成功。
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And that's a company that Ajit and four people who joined with him set the develop a new business. It's called Berkshire Hathaway, especially. It now has... What's the float? Ajit? Coming up to 12 billion.
这是阿吉特和他带领的四个人创立的一家新业务公司，叫做伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）。现在，它已经开始进展了...弗洛特是多少？阿吉特？接近120亿。
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Yeah. We built more float than probably all these companies combined. And now it's cost us essentially nothing in terms of an underwriting loss. The four people have turned in, I don't know, 1500 around the world. We took on the whole industry and we brought some unique talent and the four people that came and now have, like I said, 1500 or so worldwide.
是的。我们的募资总额可能比所有这些公司加起来还多。但现在我们的保险承保损失几乎为零。我们招募了四个人，在全世界范围内完成了大约1500项募资。我们挑战整个行业，并吸引了一些独特的人才。这四个人现在在世界各地拥有1500多项募资。
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And we brought capital and we brought capabilities that really only Berkshire could supply. So it was the combination of brains and talent and energy and money. And no one has really successfully entered this space. Only people in this space who didn't like us coming and we did it without it is costing us a dime of entry.
我们带来了资金和只有伯克希尔能提供的能力。这是头脑、才能、活力和资金的结合。没有人真正成功地进入了这个领域。只有这个领域的人不喜欢我们的到来，而我们进入这个领域并没有花费任何进入费用。
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And it's been unmatched by any of the public companies that went public. And people have seen us do it, but they can't duplicate it. And that's what Ajit has created and Peter Eastwood has led this group. Berkshire has a way especially and it's just remarkable. So anyone with that, let's go on. Now give him a hand for that.
我们的成功表现出色，超过了任何一家上市公司。人们看到我们做到了，但他们无法复制。这就是Ajit所创造的，Peter Eastwood领导的团队。伯克希尔·哈撒韦有一种独特的方式，真是令人惊叹。如果有人有这种能力，就让我们继续前进吧。现在为他鼓掌。
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Okay, let's go to section two. Hi, Charlie. I'm Elorand. I'm Karen here from Singapore. I'm glad you got that in. You're prior to these, you're right. Yes, I have a question on AI and robotics. Here's my questions.
好的，我们来到第二部分。嗨，查理。我是埃洛兰德。我来自新加坡的卡伦。很高兴你能理解我的问题。你之前说得没错。是的，我有一个关于人工智能和机器人技术的问题。我的问题是这样的：
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As AI and robotics continues to advance, what do you believe will be the positive and the negative impact of this technology on both the stocks market and society as a whole? And are there any specific industrial and companies that you believe will be most impacted? Karen, I thank you for asking Charlie that question.
随着人工智能和机器人技术的不断进步，您认为这项技术对股票市场和整个社会将产生哪些正面和负面影响？是否有任何特定的行业和公司会受到最大的影响？Karen，我感谢您向查理提出这个问题。
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Hello, everyone. If you went into B.Y.D.s factories in China, you would see robotics going in the unbelievable rate. So we're going to see a lot more robotics in the world. I am personally skeptical of some of the hype that has gone into artificial intelligence. Very well. There won't be anything in AI that replaces the gene. I'll state that unqualifiedly. They can do amazing things.
大家好。如果你去到中国比亚迪的工厂，你会看到机器人的使用率惊人。因此，我们将会看到更多的机器人在世界上应用。个人而言，我对某些关于人工智能的炒作持怀疑态度。不过没关系，人工智能没有任何东西可以取代基因。我会毫不含糊地说出这个观点。虽然它们可以做出惊人的事情。
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Bill Gates brought me out of the latest version. One he thought maybe I could handle, which has to be careful with me in terms of leading me too fast. And it did remarkable things. But you know, things like checking all the legal opinions since the beginning of time and everything and eliminating all the side. It can do all kinds of things.
比尔·盖茨给我带来了最新版本的软件。他认为我可能能够应对这个版本，但他也需要谨慎地领导我，避免我被过快地超越。这个软件做了许多出色的事情，例如检查自古以来的所有法律意见并删除所有次要的东西。它可以做各种各样的事情。
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Because I know we won't be able to uninvent it. We did invent for very, very good reason the atom bomb in World War II. It was enormously important that we did so. But it was good for the next 200 years of the world that the ability to do so has been unleashed. We didn't have a choice. But when you start something, well Einstein said after that, the atom bomb said this has changed everything in the world except how men think.
因为我知道我们无法消除它。我们在二战中发明原子弹有非常非常好的理由，这是极其重要的。但让人能够掌握这种能力对世界未来的两百年来说是有益的。我们没有选择。但当你开始某件事情时，爱因斯坦说过，原子弹已经改变了世界，但除了人们的思想方式之外。
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And I would say the same thing may not the same thing. I don't mean that, but I mean with AI, it can change everything in the world except how men think it behave. And that's a big step to take. It's a good question and it's the best answer we can give. Becky? This question comes from Tom Seymour.
我想说的是同一个事情可能并不完全相同。我不是指这个，我指的是人工智能可以改变世界上的一切，除了人们的思想和行为方式。这是一个重要的步骤。这是一个好问题，我们作出了最好的回答。贝基？这个问题来自汤姆·西摩。
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He says the first sentence of a recent Financial Times article, red. Charlie Munger has warned of a brewing storm in the US commercial property market with American banks full of what he said were bad loans as property prices fall. Please elaborate on what's going on in commercial real estate.
他引用了最近一篇《金融时报》文章的第一句话，即“查理·芒格警告美国商业房地产市场正在酝酿风暴，由于地产价格下跌，美国银行满是坏贷款。”请详细介绍商业房地产市场发生了什么事情。
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How bad will the losses be and what sectors or geographies look particularly bad? I'll just add an addendum from another viewer who wrote in and wanted to know if Berkshire would be more active in commercial real estate as a result. Well Berkshire has never been very active in commercial real estate. It works better for taxable investors than it does for corporations to act the way Berkshire is.
损失会有多严重？哪些行业或地区看起来特别糟糕？还有一个观众写信问，由于这种情况，伯克希尔是否会更积极地参与商业房地产？好吧，伯克希尔从来没有在商业房地产方面非常活跃。对于税收方面的投资者来说，这种方式对于公司的运作效果要更好，而不是伯克希尔这样的公司。
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So I don't anticipate huge effects on Berkshire. But I do think that the hollowing out of the downtowns in the United States and elsewhere in the world is going to be quite significant and quite unpleasant. I think country will get through it all right. But as they say, it will all be an involved with different set of owners. Yeah and the buildings don't go away. The owners do.
我认为伯克希尔（Berkshire）不会受到太大的影响。但我确实认为，美国和全球其他地方市中心的萎靡不振将会相当显著和不愉快。我认为，国家会度过这一切。但正如他们所说，这将涉及不同的所有者。是的，建筑物不会消失，但所有者会消失。
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Well, most people like to buy with non-recourse in real estate. One down my ass Charlie, there was some business guy we were talking to him and you know how did they decide how much they can build like this is worth. And it's the answers. It's whatever they can borrow without signing their name.
大多数人在房地产交易中喜欢选择无追索权购买。有一次，我们和一位商人交谈，他们如何计算一栋建筑物的价值。答案是，他们可以借多少就值多少，无需签署任何保证书。
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And if you look at real estate generally you'll understand what the phenomena is happening. If you remind yourself that that's the attitude of most people that have become big in the real estate business. And it does mean that the lenders are the ones that get the property. And of course they don't want the property usually.
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如果你看看房地产市场，就会明白现在发生了什么现象。如果你提醒自己，这是大多数房地产业成功人士的态度。这意味着贷款人是获得房产的人。当然，他们通常不想要这些房产。
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So then the real estate operator comes on negotiating with them and the banks tend to you know extend and pretend. And there's all kinds of activities that arrive out of commercial real estate development which occurs on a big scale. But it all has consequences. And I think we're about while we are starting to see the consequences of people who get borrowed to 1.5% and find out it doesn't work at current rates.
于是，房地产经营者来进行谈判，银行则倾向于“拖延假装”。商业房地产开发会引发各种各样的活动，规模也很大，但这些都会产生后果。目前，我们已经开始看到借款利率只有1.5%的人们面临的后果，即在当前利率下无法承担贷款。
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And then we hand it back to somebody that gave them all the money they needed to build. Then Charlie's had more experience than really. Charlie got his start in real estate though. Charlie. Yes, it's difficult. I like what we do better.
然后我们把它交还给那些曾经提供他们建房所需资金的人。然后查理在房地产方面经验更丰富了。虽然查理开始是从房地产界开始的，但是我更喜欢我们现在所做的事情。
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Well, Charlie once said to me when I was leaving his house a few months ago. And I was using him. We talked for a couple of hours and I said to Charlie as I left, I just, when they buddy else in the house, I said, one daughter. And I said, Charlie, I'll just keep doing what we've been doing. And Charlie said without looking up or pausing a second, he said, that's all you know how to do warn. He was right too.
在几个月前我离开查理的家时，他曾对我说，说我当时正在利用他。我们聊了几个小时，当我离开时，我告诉查理，只剩下了一个女儿在家里，然后我说，查理，我会继续做我们一直在做的事情。查理没有抬头或停顿一秒，他说，你只知道如何警告别人。他说得对。
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Hi, my name is Zalazi and from Santa Clara, California. And my question is to Charlie and Warren. Given the rise of disruptive technologies that can improve productivity significantly and AI being one of them, how do you envision the future of value investing in this new era? And what adaptations or new principles do you think investors should adopt? And any recommendations for investors to remain successful in this rapid changing landscape? Thank you.
大家好，我叫扎拉兹，来自加州的圣克拉拉。我的问题是针对查理和沃伦的。鉴于新技术日益兴起，可以极大地提高生产力而人工智能是其中之一，您们如何看待价值投资在这个新时代的未来？您们认为投资者应该采取什么适应或新原则？并且，有什么推荐让投资者在这个快速变化的景观中仍然取得成功的建议吗？谢谢。
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Well, I'm glad to take that one. I think value investors are going to have a harder time now that there's so many of them competing first. I've diminished a bunch of opportunities. So my advice to value investors is to get used to making less. And Charlie was telling me the same thing the whole time we've known each other. We get along wonderfully because we are making less.
恩，我很高兴回答这个问题。我认为价值投资者现在要比以前难以找到好的机会，因为他们面临着越来越多的竞争。这减少了很多机会。所以我给价值投资者的建议是，要适应收益更少的情况。查理一直告诉我同样的话，自从我们相识以来，我们一直非常合拍，因为我们的收入减少了。
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Yeah, well, but that's mostly I think it's because the larger... We never thought we could manage 500 and 8 billion. No, no, no. But I would argue that there's going to be plenty of opportunities. And part of the reason they're going to be plenty of opportunities, the tech doesn't make any difference.
是的，但这主要是因为规模更大的…我们从未想过我们能够管理500和8千亿。不，不，不。但我认为会有很多机会。他们会有很多机会的一部分原因是技术并不重要。
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If you look at how the world's changed in the years since 1942 when I started, I'd say, well, how does a kid that doesn't know anything about airplanes, that doesn't know anything about engines and cars, and doesn't know anything about electricity and all that? But that's the reason isn't that.
如果你看看自从1942年我开始工作以来世界如何改变，我会说，那么一个不知道飞机、发动机和汽车，也不知道电力和其他一些方面的孩子，怎样能做到呢？但这不是原因。
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The world's changing doesn't... New things coming along don't take away the opportunities. What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things. And... It's that... And I would say that, well, the 58 years we've been running Berkshire, I would say there's been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things, and they do big dumb things, and the reason they do it to some extent is because they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started.
世界的变化不会...新的事物的出现不会剥夺你的机会。带给你机会的是别人做蠢事。而且...就是这样...我要说，在我们经营伯克希尔股份公司的58年中，我会说有很多人做了愚蠢的事情，他们做了一些大蠢事，原因在于他们可以比我们开始经营时更容易地从其他人那里获得资金。
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So you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last 10 years, and you could become rich. If you were a droid at it, whether the business succeeded or not, and the underwriters got paid, and the lawyers got paid, and that creates... If that's done on a large scale, which it couldn't be done, what, 58 years ago, you couldn't get the money to do some of the dumb things that we've been doing.
过去10年你可以创办10或15家傻傻的保险公司，然后就能变得富有。无论企业成功与否，只要承保人得到报酬，律师得到报酬，就会发生现象...如果这就是一个规模很大的商业模式，那么，58年前你无法获得资金做一些我们现在正在做的愚蠢事情。
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And so I think that investing has disappeared so much from this huge, capitalistic market that anybody can play in, but that the big money is in selling other people ideas that isn't outperforming, you know, performing. And I think that if you don't run too much money, which we do, but if you're running small amounts of money, I think the opportunities will be greater.
我认为投资在这个巨大的资本主义市场中已经消失得很多，任何人都可以参与，但是大钱在于销售那些表现不佳的其他人的想法。我认为，如果你没有太多的资金，那么机会会更多。我们有很多资金，但是如果你只运作少量的资金，机会会更多。
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But then Charlie and I will always defer to him on this subject. He likes to tell me how gloomy the world lives. And I like to tell him, we'll find something. So far we've both been kind of right. Charlie wouldn't you?
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然而，当谈到这个主题时，Charlie和我总是听从他的意见。他喜欢告诉我世界生活的悲凉，而我则喜欢告诉他，我们会找到一些东西。到目前为止，我们都有点正确。Charlie，你怎么看？
意思：讲述一个人和朋友之间的对话，其中他们讨论世界的悲观情况，但他们希望能找到一些乐观的答案来化解这种情况。而他们通常听从某个人的建议来达成共识。
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We budget it, Sean, that or not. There is so much money now in the hands of so many smart people, all trying to outsmart one another, and outperlone another, getting more money out of other people. And it's a radically different world from the world we started in. And I suppose it will have its opportunities, but it's also going to have some unpleasant episodes. But they're trying to outsmart each other in arenas that you don't have to play.
我们要进行预算，肖恩，无论你同意与否。现在有很多聪明人手中拥有很多钱，他们都试图超越对方，从其他人那里获取更多的钱。这是一个与我们起步时完全不同的世界。我想它会有一些机会，但也会有一些不愉快的事情发生。不过，他们在某些领域中试图互相超越，而你不必参与其中。
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I mean, if you look at that government bond market, the Treasury Bill market, I mean you got this one bill out of line with the others, and we walked over three billion of it's the other day. But those are people. The world is overwhelmingly short term focused. And if you go to an investor relations call, they're all trying to figure out how to fill out the sheet to show the earnings for the year. And the management is interested in feeding them expectations that will slightly be beaten. That that is the world that's made to order.
我的意思是，如果你看一下政府债券市场、国债市场，你会发现某张票面利率与其他债券不同，前两天我们交易了其中的30亿美元。但这些只是市场中的人。世界上的大多数人都非常短视。如果你参加一个投资者关系电话会议，他们都试图弄清楚如何填写报表以展示当年的收益。管理层希望提供略微超出预期的期望。这就是定制的世界。
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Brandy, but it is trying to think about what you do that should work over five or 10 or 20 years. And I just think that I would love to be born today and go out with not too much money and hopefully turn it into a lot of money. But and Charlie would too actually just like he would find something to do. I will just guarantee you and it wouldn't be exactly the same as before, but he would have a big big pile. I would not like the thrill of losing my big pile into a small pile. What we like my big pile just the way it is. Well, I like. We agree on that as to that. Okay. We do. You're one of the most extreme lovers of the big pile.
布兰迪，重要的是考虑你做什么能在五年、十年或二十年后仍有效。我觉得如果我今天出生，不需要太多钱，希望能够将其变成很多钱。查理也是这样，他会找到一些事情做。我能向你保证，他会有一个大大的财富堆，虽然不完全像以前那样，但是还很大。我不想冒失失去我已有的财富。我们喜欢我已有的大堆财富。我喜欢这样。我们对此都达成了共识。你是最热衷于财富的人之一。
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This question is for both Warren and a G comes from Jason Planner in Livingston, New Jersey. He says in 2016 you entered into a very unique transaction with AIG where you assumed up to $20 billion of liabilities in exchange for about $10 billion upfront. Can you please provide us with an update on this transaction in light of the increase in interest rates. And then in Tokyo just a few weeks ago you talked about the risks of banks with assets that were susceptible to rising interest rates.
这个问题是给沃伦和G的，来自新泽西州利文斯顿的詹森规划师。他说在2016年，你们与AIG进行了一项非常独特的交易，你们承担了高达200亿美元的负债，以换取约100亿美元的前期款项。鉴于利率上升，能否请你提供有关这项交易的最新进展。几周前在东京，你谈到了银行资产受到上升利率风险的问题。
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Any insight as to how Berkshire liabilities are susceptible to duration would be appreciated. Is that directed to a jitter of mayor? Both. Okay. Let me introduce my one thing and well, but in jitter is the key to this. He's the one to put the deal together. But we got handed $10 billion. We'll say. But we weren't restricted to putting that into bonds.
请分享一下伯克希尔的负债情况可能会受债券期限影响的见解。这是向市长发出的问题吗？是的，不过我想表达的关键是关于市长的。他是推动这项交易的关键人物。我们手上有100亿美元，但我们没有受限于将这些资金投入债券中。
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So what the exact interest rate interest rates affect just to some degree maybe in terms of the terms of the deal we did with AIG or anybody we would do a similar deal with like that. But we don't have we don't have to put it in matching bonds or anything to sort. It goes into a general pool of assets which we manage and they assets.
因此，准确的利率只对我们与AIG或任何类似交易的条件等方面产生某些影响。但我们不需要将其与匹配债券或其他类似资产相结合。它会进入我们管理的一般资产池中。
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Well, the liquid assets now are 130 billion plus and that but it goes in. So it you know it it is not set aside in some little compartment like people like to think. Now any any any other insurance no other insurance company could do it but they can't think that way. They aren't even used to thinking that way but they can't think that way because they don't have our our balance sheet.
现在的流动资产超过了1300亿，但是这些资产并没有像人们想象的那样被单独存放在某个小口袋中。其他保险公司是做不到这种程度的，因为他们没有我们这样的资本平衡表，也不习惯这样的思考方式。
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We account for 26% or something like that of the net worth of all property casually companies in the United States. So so far the payment that we have had to make have run modestly and a G will correct me on this if he's wrong because he paid a lot of attention over the. The the amount we have had to pay has run slightly below the amount we anticipated having to pay in terms of our shareable losses.
我们财产保险公司在美国所有公司的净资产中占比26％左右。因此，至今我们需要支付的赔款仍然很低，如果我说错了，G会纠正我，因为他一直关注这个情况。我们需要支付的金额略低于我们最初预计需要支付的可共享损失金额。
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But it served a i g's purposes it came to us with where we're in a unique position. There's nobody else that was able to write that just like when when we took on the Lloyd's I mean Lloyd's said there was no choice other than Berkshire halfway when they they essentially resuscitated their market by laying off a lot of lives. A lot of the least on Berkshire has a way so we won't see those deals very often if if they're for 500 million or something like that somebody also going there and offer more money and everybody's looking for money and Wall Street but if they start talking with the deal like the a g deal there's nothing to stop now. Correct me on all my numbers there.
但它满足了伯克希尔的目的，它来找我们时，我们处于一个独特的位置。没有其他人能够像我们一样写出来，就像我们接手劳埃德保险市场时一样，当他们裁员之后，没有其他选择，只能找伯克希尔半路救助。伯克希尔有自己的方式来处理这些交易，如果交易是5亿美元左右，我们不会经常看到，因为如果有人提供更多的钱，每个人都在寻找钱，华尔街也不例外。但如果他们开始讨论像AIG这样的交易，就没有什么可以阻止它了。请在我的所有数字上纠正我。
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One way to look at how the deal is performing since we did the deal is at the point we in time and we did the deal we had made certain projections of how much we will pay out each year. And what we do is monitor what the actual payments are since the inception of the deal and how does that compare with what we expected to pay out. As Warren mentioned these two numbers are very close to each other most specifically the actual payouts are 96% of what we projected to pay out at this point. in time. Which is good but not great we are still ahead of the curve if we do end up paying out less than what we projected not only would we have borrowed money at a very attractive rate meaning less than 4% significantly less than 4%. In addition to that we would have made a fee which in 2,000, 15 dollars would be a million dollars. So we would have borrowed money at less than 4% and we would have made a million dollar fee which is slightly more than what we were expecting to do. So net net we were very happy with the deal we're happy we did it but the game is not over the totaliabilities are coming down the pike every second day. So I'm cautiously optimistic that the deal will work out better than what we expected it to work out.
这份协议从签订至今，我们可以从一些角度来观察它的表现。在签订时，我们曾制定过每年需要支付多少的预测。现在，我们监控实际支付与预测支付之间的差距。正如Warren 所提到的，这两个数字非常接近，实际支付数值是预测支付数值的96%。虽然这个比例不错，但并不完美。如果我们确实支付的数值低于预计，在非常优惠的利率下借入资金（达到不到4%的利率），再加上我们的费用（2015年的100万美元），我们的总成本将会会略低于预期。总体而言，我们对这次协议感到非常满意，但是我们也清醒地看待着每天涌现的负债。因此，我谨慎地乐观地认为这笔交易将会比我们预期的结果更好。
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Well the really interesting thing is that within Burtcher the casualty and jury companies have 4 times as much stockholder capital which I need, behind each dollar of premium volume. 4 times normal and of course we see the big deals. Who would you trust if you had a big lab over there you wanted to dump on somebody? And we have 25 or billion or more coming in from things other than insurance uncorrelated insurance. Every year with no obligations we don't pay dividends. If you pay dividends and you cut your dividend try going around trying to write insurance the next day. It's a business where the people are counting on you to pay. And when we take that 10 billion we don't agree to put it in 5-year bonds and 10-year bonds. We don't even think that way. And the people who do business with us know that they have somebody like nobody else on those. It's going to be able to pay 10 billion no matter what happens to the economy. So it's not only the presence of enormous strength in the insurance companies. It's the fact we got all these earnings that essentially come in every month. We don't have a lot of debt. We have debt at the railroad and the energy level. But in terms of the rest of the operation. And we don't guarantee that debt but it's point you would. There's just isn't another Berkshire and the Jeep recognizes that one. He's negotiating. And the other party if sums are big enough. There's all kinds of people that love to get 500 million or 300 million. And they can they may think in terms of lending it out because that's what their insurance companies can do with a somewhat higher rate. But that is not a game we play in. And we don't have any interest in playing in them.
有趣的是，在伯特彻里面，伤亡和陪审员公司的股东资本是普通水平的四倍，每美元保费收入背后就有这么多资金支持。这是正常水平的四倍，我们当然会看到一些大交易。如果你手头上有一个想要转让的大型实验室，你会信任谁呢？此外，我们每年有250亿美元或更多的非保险相关收入，没有任何义务，我们不支付股息。如果你支付股息，然后你削减股息，试着在第二天四处寻找写保险的生意吧。这是一个人们指望你付钱的业务。当我们拿走了那100亿美元时，我们没有同意将其投资于5年和10年期债券。我们甚至不这样考虑。和我们做生意的人知道他们有一个像我们一样的，无论经济发生什么变化，都能够支付100亿美元的人。因此，这不仅仅是保险公司的巨大实力的存在。事实上，我们还拥有每个月实际上都会产生的收益。我们没有太多的债务。我们在铁路和能源领域有债务，但在运营的其他方面，我们没有担保这些债务，但如果有机会，你肯定会这样做。没有另外一家伯克希尔，吉普意识到了这一点。他正在谈判。如果数额足够大，另一方有很多人喜欢获得5亿或3亿美元。他们可以考虑出借这些资金，因为他们的保险公司可以提供相对较高的利率。但我们不玩这种游戏，我们也没有兴趣参与这种游戏。
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Okay. Station four. Hello. I'm Marvin Blum and a state planning lawyer from Fort Worth, Texas, home to many of your companies. In fact, Warren, I met you at the memorial for our beloved Paul Andrews who was manager of TTI. I'd like to get your thoughts on a widespread problem in the world of estate planning. And that's the failure of most parents to prepare the next generation for the inheritance coming their way. In particular, if the estate includes a family business, most parents fail to do business succession planning to plan for who will run the business on the day when not if the founder is no longer there to run it. The kids aren't prepared unlike King Charles, the other King Charles not King Charlie Munger, who has been preparing for his job as King of England now for more than 70 years. I sometimes describe the situation like this. Picture a football game. At one end of the field is a quarterback. He has great skills. He throws a beautiful pass to the other end of the field. And at the other end of the field are the receivers. They've never been to a practice. They don't know the rules of the game. They don't know how to work together as a team. They're clueless. So the quarterback is the patriarch and the matriarch. The football is the inheritance or the family business. And the receivers are the kids. What are the odds that they're going to catch the football and go score a touchdown? Probably only around 10%.
好的，第四号场站。你好，我是马文·布鲁姆，来自德克萨斯州沃思堡市的资产规划律师，你们公司的许多企业都驻扎在我们的城市。事实上，沃伦，我们在纪念我们敬爱的TTI经理保罗·安德鲁斯的追悼会上相遇。我想听听您对财产规划领域中普遍存在的问题的看法。这个问题是大多数父母没有为下一代准备即将继承的财产做好准备。特别是，如果财产包括家族企业，大多数父母未能做好企业传承规划，以规划日后谁将接手企业经营，当创始人无法再经营时。孩子们未做好准备，不像查尔斯国王，不是查理·芒格国王，他已经为自己成为英国国王的工作做了超过70年的准备了。我有时会这样描述这种情况。想象一场足球比赛。在场地的一端是四分卫，他拥有出色的技能。他将足球传到了场地的另一端。在场地的另一端是接球手。他们从未上过练习课。他们不了解比赛规则。他们不知道如何协作。他们是一个团队的文盲。所以四分卫就像家族的家长，姓氏和传承就像足球，而接球手则是孩子们。他们有多大几率能接住足球并上演Touchdown？只有大约10%。
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I've got the picture on the corner. Just give me.
我有角落上的那张照片。把它给我。
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I probably observed as many as my age and to some extent as the giving push. I probably observed as many particularly wealthy families, the problems they get very particular to the family.
我可能观察到了与我的年龄相同的人，也在某种程度上推动了他们。我可能观察到了许多尤其富裕家庭，这些问题非常针对家庭。
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And in my family, I do not sign a will until my three children have read it, understand it, and made suggestions. Now my children are in their 60s. And that would not have been a great success. If I done the same thing at their 20s, it depends on the family. It depends on how the kids feel about each other. There's all kinds of things. It depends on the kind of business you have. So there's a thousand variables.
在我家庭中，除非我三个孩子都已经阅读、理解并提出建议，否则我不会签署遗嘱。现在我的孩子们都已经六十多岁了，但是如果在他们二十岁时我这样做，结果可能会不同。这取决于家庭情况，取决于孩子们之间的感情，以及你经营的业务类型等等，因此有千千万万种变数。
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But I do think that it's if the children are growing and when the will is read to them, it's the first they've heard about what the deceased thought about things. The parents have made a terrible mistake. People, well, I've run into all kinds of situations. Some people don't tell their children anything. Some of them try and get them to vendor their will by using their own personal will. They make a million mistakes. And that's when you don't get to correct.
我认为，如果孩子们在成长过程中没有听过死者对事物的看法，那么当他们第一次听到遗嘱念出来时，会感到非常惊讶。父母犯下了一个可怕的错误。我遇到了各种各样的人和情况。有些人不告诉他们的孩子任何事情。有些人试图用自己的个人意愿来影响他们的孩子撤销遗嘱。他们犯了许多错误，而我们无法对此进行纠正。
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Certainly, well Charlie's had a lot of experience too. At Berkshire, we have a simple problem of estate planning. Just hold the goddamn stock. But that doesn't fit everybody, Charlie. I mean, you know, I don't know if it's 95%. I don't think it necessarily. I don't know necessarily whether if you have billions of dollars, you want to leave it to your old, old, your children. That's another question. But if you're ever placing somewhere, I just assume it has Berkshire stock. You're solving the investment problem.
查理也拥有丰富的经验。在伯克希尔，我们面临的是简单的财产规划问题。只需要持有这些股票。但这并不适合所有人，查理。我不知道这适用于95%的人群，我也不确定拥有数十亿美元的人是否需要将财产留给他们的长子孙。这是另一个问题。但是，如果你需要投资，我建议你购买伯克希尔股票。这样你就解决了投资问题。
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But you've got the personal problem of the fact that when they were four, one of the kids pulled the other kids cats tail or something like that. I mean, you're dealing with human beings. And the biggest thing you want is you want your children to get along. And you want that all through your life. And the estate isn't the only place where you can mess that up.
但你会面临一个个人问题，就是当他们四岁时，其中一个孩子拔了另一个孩子的猫尾巴或其他类似的事情。我的意思是，你面对的是人类。而你最想要的是，你的孩子彼此相处融洽。这是你终生所追求的。而不仅仅是在房产方面，你都有可能破坏这种和谐。
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But it's a place where it's a very easy. I mean, I know a number of cases where the people did not know what was in the well, whether we're used to something involved. And you know, within about 15 minutes each one of metal layer. And you know, they don't get along since. It's important to handle it right. And it's important if you want your kids to have a certain value, certain values. It's important that you live those values. It's important that you talk about it too.
这是一个很容易让人犯错误的地方。我认识一些人，他们不知道井里有什么，也不知道这件事是否涉及到其他方面。然后，每个人都开始争吵，不满意。因此，正确处理这种情况非常重要。如果您想让孩子们拥有某些价值观，那么将这些价值观贯彻到自己的行为中非常重要，并且也要与孩子们谈论这些价值观。
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And they're learning from you from the day they're born, what you're really like. And don't think that a cleverly drawn will substitute for your own behavior in teaching your kids the values you hope that they will have. And your will should be in conjunction with that. It should start expressing that they grow older than they learn to. They learn to pass along their values in connection with the size of the state. If there's family farms, it's one thing. If it's a bunch of marketable securities, it's something else.
从孩子出生的那一天开始，他们就会从你身上学到你的真实本质。不要认为一个巧妙的遗嘱可以替代你的行为来教育孩子们你希望他们拥有的价值观。你的遗嘱应该与你的行为相一致。从他们年龄渐长的时候开始，你应该表达你的遗愿。他们会在持续的成长中学会将价值观传递给下一代。如果你家有农场，那是一回事。如果只是一些市场价值的证券，那就另外一回事了。
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And I know one instance by particularly Rich fellow that once a year, he'd get his kids together and have a dinner and do all kinds of things to get them to sign their income tax returns in blank. Because he didn't want them to know how much money they had and everything. Well, if that, that isn't going to work. I don't know why necessarily will work with him.
我知道一个特别富有的人，每年都会召集他的孩子们一起吃饭，让他们在空白的收入税申报单上签字。因为他不想让他们知道自己有多少钱以及其他一些情况。但如果这样作用不大，我不知道还有什么能让他改变想法。
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But if you want, you know, Charlie, I've said it. If you want to figure out how you want to live your life, you write your old bituary and rebirth engineer. Paul Andrews, incidentally, who you mentioned, the TTI lived his greater life as anybody I've known. And he thought about these problems. And he came to me.
但是，如果您想要，Charlie，我已经说过了。如果您想要想清楚自己想要如何度过人生，您可以撰写自己的传记并重新设计自己的人生。顺便提一下，您提到的保罗·安德鲁斯是我所认识的人中度过最充实的人生。他思考过这些问题并向我寻求帮助。
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He was 61, I think. He had all the money, way beyond what he needed. He didn't care. I like to give it to people. He had all kinds of good things he wanted to do. And he said, for a year, I've been worried about my business, TTI. And he said, I've got all the money I need, the family's got all the money that I need. But what do I do with the business? These people have helped me drop my life. And he says, I can sell a token better. If I sold a token better, they'd fire my people and keep their people. When they put it together. And if I sell it to a private equity firm or something, they'll be figuring their access strategy as they sign the papers. And he said, I've been thinking about it a year. And he said, isn't it? You're such a great guy. He says, you're the only one left. And we bought it and we lived happily ever after. And that was a man that knew what life was about.
他大概61岁吧，拥有超出他需要的所有财富。他不在乎钱。他喜欢把它给予别人。他有很多想做的好事。他说，一年来，我一直在担心我的企业TTI。他说，我已经拥有我需要的所有钱，我的家人也有我需要的财富。但是，我该怎么办我的企业呢？这些人已经帮助我度过了人生最艰难的时刻。他说，我可以把它卖给一个更好的人。如果我卖给一个更好的人，他们会解雇我的员工并留下他们自己的员工。如果我把它卖给一个私募股权公司之类的机构，他们会在签订协议之前制定他们的获得策略。他说，我已经考虑了一年。你是一个很棒的人。你是最后一个剩下的人。我们买下了它，从此过上了幸福的生活。那是一个知道生命真谛的人。
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So with that, let's go on to Becky. This question comes from Don Glickstein in Seattle. He says, warn his criticized Norfolk Southern's handling of its trained derailment, yet has been silent about BNSF's conduct. A federal judge ruled in March that BNSF intentionally and illegally violated an easement agreement on tribal land in Washington State by transporting long trains of crude oil. The same month the judge made his. ruling, a BNSF trained derailed on tribal lands spilling oil in an environmentally sensitive area. What is Warren doing to ensure that BNSF and other Berkshire subsidiaries fulfill their ethical responsibilities? He says he's been a Berkshire owner for more than two decades and he's concerned that Berkshire has no systems to identify and dress what he calls reprehensible behavior at BNSF and other subsidiaries.
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好的，接下来让我们来看看贝基。这个问题来自西雅图的唐•格利克斯坦。他称批评了诺福克南方铁路公司处理翻车事故的做法，但对伯克希尔铁路公司的行为却保持沉默。一位联邦法官在三月份裁定，伯克希尔铁路公司故意违反了华盛顿州印第安部落土地上的通行协议，运输了长长的原油列车。同月，一辆伯克希尔铁路公司列车在印第安部落的土地上脱轨，污染了一处环境敏感地区。沃伦•巴菲特正在采取什么行动确保伯克希尔铁路公司和其他子公司履行其道德责任？他表示自己已经拥有伯克希尔公司股票超过20年，他担心伯克希尔没有系统来识别和处理他称之为可耻行为的问题，这种行为在伯克希尔铁路公司和其他子公司中都存在。
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Sure. So the, it is a valid issue that our team obviously has been dealing with at BNSF. We did move crude across that tribal land. We had an agreement that allowed us to move X number of units per day and we did breach it. We went over it. There was some fundamental breakdowns there and that our team didn't understand the number of trains that they could move. We have had significant discussions with the tribe looking to resolve the issue recognizing we obviously benefited from moving those trains and those type of discussions will continue. I would say there's lessons learned there that we have to when we make a commitment understand what that commitment is and live by it or don't assume we can just move our trains as we wish or the car.
当然。我们的团队显然一直在处理BNSF的这个有效问题。我们曾经穿过那个部落的土地运输原油。我们有一项允许我们每天移动X单位的协议，但我们已经违反了它。我们超了规定的数量。在那里，出现了一些根本性的破裂，我们的团队没有明白他们可以移动火车的数量。我们已经与部落进行了重要的讨论，寻求解决这个问题，意识到我们显然从移动这些火车中受益，这些讨论将继续进行。我想说的是，我们必须要吸取教训，当我们做出承诺时，必须明白承诺是什么，并遵守它，否则不要假设我们可以像自己所愿一样移动我们的火车或汽车。
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We wish we have to respect those agreements. There's been a moment learned there but at the same time we've taken it very seriously and attempted to reach a resolution there. At some point I hope we do come to a true resolution that's fair both to the tribe and to BNSF. On the derailments side we did have an issue around the track derailed. We worked very closely with the tribe to mitigate that issue instantly or at least over a very reasonable period of time. They were very responsive. Our team was very responsive and there really no long-term environmental impacts to that spill.
我们希望能够尊重那些协议。尽管那里发生了一些问题，但同时我们非常认真地对待并试图解决这个问题。希望在某个点上，我们能够达成一项公平对待部落和BNSF的真正解决方案。关于铁路脱轨问题，我们确实遇到了问题。我们与部落密切合作，立即或至少在一个相当合理的时间内缓解了这个问题。他们非常积极响应。我们的团队也是非常积极响应，而且没有长期的环境影响。
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As our teams highlighted in other comments obviously derailments do occur in the industry. We take them incredibly serious. They're not all hazardous but irrespective of that. We're constantly looking at how do we prevent them? How do we detect them when we potentially have one that's going to occur and what do we do with our trains? Then ultimately it comes down to responding properly because they will occur and I think we have an incredibly dedicated team that's always ready to respond to the communities they're impacting. There are derailments.
正如我们的团队在其他评论中强调的那样，事故确实会在这个行业发生。我们非常重视它们。虽然它们并不都具有危险性，但无论如何，我们都在不断探索如何预防它们、如何在可能发生事故时及时发现并处理我们的火车。最终，关键在于做出适当的反应，因为事故是难以避免的，但我认为我们有一个非常专注的团队，随时准备好为受影响社区提供帮助。确实存在火车脱轨的情况。
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How many a year? Well there's a thousand plus in the industry. You start hauling and we're a common carrier. We take heavy, heavy freight and we take them at 100 degrees when it's weather and we take it at zero and we go around curves and we have grades. Even a 1% grade if you're going down downhill with how much weight behind you. There are a lot of railroading that is not an easy business and of course the systems were designed basically in the late 1800s. We have 22,000 miles of track and that doesn't count sightings and some other things. It is not an easy business.
每年有多少工作量？嗯，在铁路行业中大约有一千多项工作。我们是运输商，需要运送沉重的货物，不论是在天气炎热时的100度，还是在零度下，我们都需要穿越曲线和上坡。即使是1％的坡度，如果您在下坡时有重量，也会很艰难。铁路交通业并不是一项轻松的业务，当然，这些系统基本上是在19世纪末设计的。我们拥有22,000英里的铁路轨道，这还不包括端点和其他一些事情。这不是一项轻松的业务。
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We'll make mistakes. We're not making a mistake because we have a derailment. We will have the derailment 10-20 years or 30 years from now. We have to carry certain products. We wish we didn't have to carry. We're a common carrier. Do we like carrying chlorine and ammonia? No. We are a common carrier. We load them and select our railroad. We are better than we used to be but we got a long way to go. That's absolutely.
我们会犯错。但并不是因为出现了车辆脱轨而犯了错误。这种意外将会在10到20年甚至30年后发生。我们必须运输某些产品，虽然我们希望不必这样做。但我们是一家公共运输公司。我们是否喜欢搬运氯和氨？并不是。但是我们是一家公共运输公司，我们需要装载这些危险物品，然后选择我们的铁路运输方式。我们比以前更好了，但我们仍然有很长的路要走。这是绝对的。
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Station 5. I'm from China, China, and first of all I'm so excited and we're honored to be here today. My question is, with more and more people focusing on environmental protection and the government supporting the new energy industry as well, what are your thoughts on the continued development of new energy? How made the new energy firm achieve better development in future?
第五个发言人。我来自中国，首先我非常激动和荣幸能够来到这里。我的问题是，随着越来越多的人关注环境保护，政府也支持新能源产业的发展，您对于新能源的继续发展有何想法？未来如何让新能源企业获得更好的发展？
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I think it's the best answer because since we bought a company called Min American but now called Berkshire Hathaway Energy but he has been talking about it, yearly preparing reports, hoping that we can help solve a number of problems and we probably spent more money than any utility I would guess in the United States. We've just crashed the surface but it is not easy when you cross state lines.
我认为这是最好的答案，因为我们购买了一家名为Min American但现在称为Berkshire Hathaway能源的公司，他一直在谈论它，每年准备报告，希望我们能够帮助解决许多问题， 我们可能比美国任何公用事业花费更多的资金。我们才刚刚触及这个领域，但是跨州线操作并不容易。
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I mean it's different jurisdictions and this country should be ahead of word is in terms of transmission and we have been the biggest factor in helping that. Why don't you tell them a little bit about it?
这些地区的法律不同，我们的国家在传输方面应该比其他国家更先进，而我们一直是帮助这一点的最大因素。你为什么不多跟他们说一点呢？
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There's no question there's an energy transformation going on around the globe and as Warren touched on in the US and in some ways I would hope in here in the US it would be.
毫无疑问，全球正在发生着能源转型，正如沃伦所提到的在美国发生的那样，而在某些方面，我希望这种转型也会在这里发生。
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We'd at least have a clear plan across the nation as to how to approach up the reality is it is state by state with some exceptions but so as a result when you think of Berkshire Hathaway Energy we own three US utilities there and they'll participate in multiple states but they're developing plans state by state and then trying to integrate them across the various states.
如果我们能够在全国范围内制定一个明确的计划，以应对现实，那将是很好的。实际上，不同州之间情况各异，但有些地方例外。因此，在考虑伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司时，我们拥有三个美国公用事业公司，他们将参与多个州的项目，但是都是逐个州制定计划，之后再试图将它们整合到各州之间去。
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The opportunities are significant because there is a transformation going on. We've outlined our goal on where we're going relative to carbon at VHE where they'll by 2030 reduce their carbon footprint by 50% relative to 2005 so that's the Paris Accord and the standard they want to hold the utility industry or the utility companies doing and we're well on that path but to achieve it is a true example.
机会非常重要，因为正在发生转型。我们在VHE为碳的目标制定了明确的方向，他们计划到2030年将碳排放量相对于2005年减少50％，这是巴黎协定以及他们希望公用事业公司遵循的标准。我们已经在这条路上走得很好，但实现它是一个真正的例子。
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I've often talked to Warren when we bought Pacific corp back in the mid-2000s we immediately recognized to build a lot of renewable energy like we've been doing in the Midwest in Iowa but that was basically in a single state now Pacific corp were in six states. We started that back in the mid-2000s here we are and we laid out a great transmission plan here's how we're going to build it here's how we're going to effectuated and all the benefits for our customers over that period of time here we are in 2023 and we have a little more than a third of that at the time was a six billion dollar transmission project today we have a little more than a third of it built and we've spent probably closer to seven billion dollars and it's the right out of the way.
我经常与沃伦交谈，当我们在2000年代中期购买太平洋公司时，我们立即意识到需要建设更多像我们在爱荷华州中西部所做的可再生能源，但那基本上只在一个州内。太平洋公司分布在六个州，我们从2000年代中期开始规划并制定出一个伟大的输电计划：这是我们如何建造的，这是我们如何实现的，以及我们提供给客户的所有好处。现在我们已经到了2023年，当时这个价值60亿美元的输电项目已经建成超过三分之一了，我们已经花费了大约70亿美元，而且这是正确的方式。
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It's the right outcome it's still a great outcome for our customers but that transmission you absolutely as part of the transformation you absolutely have to build it to remove to move all that renewable energy and that's sort of the complexity one was highlighting it is a you can't just wake up one day and solve this problem you start with transmission and then you build the resources but at that same same company if we look at what we're doing across B.H.E. energy and that energy transfer.
这是正确的结果，对于我们的客户来说仍然是个极好的结果，但在转型过程中，您绝对必须建立传输系统以便转移所有可再生能源，这是我强调的复杂性，你不能只是一天醒来就解决这个问题，你要从传输开始，然后再建立资源。但在同一个公司，如果我们看看在B.H.E.能源和能源转移方面的工作，我们正在做些什么。
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In that energy transformation we have seventy billion dollars of known projects that are really required to properly serve our customers and achieve that type of energy transformation across those utilities and that's in the coming next in the coming ten years so we have a team that's absolutely up to the challenge they're delivering on their commitments and it's a very very good business opportunity for for each of our company and it's a very good business opportunity for each of our companies and for our shareholders because as we deploy that capital we obviously earn a return on equity of it so but it will be a long journey it it will happen over an extended period of time and and the further you get out there the more dependent it more dependent upon the evolution of a variety of technologies that are progressing but not there yet so you raised a question.
在这种能量转型中，我们有七百亿美元的已知项目，这些项目真正需要来为我们的客户提供适当的服务，并在未来十年内实现能源转型，因此我们拥有一个完全能够胜任这一挑战的团队，他们正在履行承诺，这对于我们每家公司来说是一个非常好的商业机会，因为随着我们投入这笔资本，我们显然会获得股本回报，但这将是一个漫长的过程，需要一个长时间的进程，越偏远的地区越依赖于正在进展但还没有到达的各种技术的进化，因此您提出了一个问题。
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I just want to take an extra minute out because it's so important and and I don't really know whether our form of government is ideal at all in terms of solving the problem you describe we have solved it one time in World War 2 we took a country that was semi limping along and we found ourselves in World War and what we did in World War is we brought a bunch of people to Washington at a dollar a year and whether it was Sydney Weinberg or Goldman Sachs you just name them and we gave them enormous power...
我想特别花一分钟说一下，因为这非常重要，我不确定我们的政府形式是否理想，能够解决你所描述的问题。我们只有在二战期间解决过这个问题，当时我们接管了一个半残废的国家，我们卷入了战争，我们做的是把一群人带到华盛顿，花费一美元，无论是辛迪·温伯格还是高盛，你只要提名，我们给了他们巨大的权力...
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... to reorient the resources of the United States to face the problem that they faced which was to create a war machine and what they did was they found Henry Kaiser you know and told him to build ships and they wanted the Ford Motor Company said you build tanks and some airplanes and they reordered the industrial enterprise of the United States in a way that was unbelievable because they had the power of the federal government and they had the ingenuity of American business and they had the facilities of American business and it led to very successful outcome but can we do that in a peace time where you've got 50 states and you have to get them to cooperate and you don't have anyone that you can you can issue orders but you can't you can't designate where the capital goes that's the other end and you know we try and do it with tax incentives and all that sort of thing but we haven't we haven't created the unity of purpose and the machinery that worked in World War II where essentially everybody felt their one job was to win the war and we figured out how to use our industrial capacity to in effect defeat the access powers and how do you recreate. that with you know the present democratic system I'm not sure I know the answer but I sure know the problem and I think that if if you can think of a if you've got an emergency on your hand you really need to re re-engineer the engineer energy system the United States I don't think I don't think you can do it without something resembling the machinery the urgency whatever the capital is there the people are there the objectiv is obvious and we just don't seem to be able to do it in a peace time where we're used to following a given set of procedure and you know China if you've got one country and we've got we've got 50 states and we've got a whole different system of government that we should be up to the test but so far it hasn't worked so thank you for the question Becky
第一段：
在面对美国面临的创建战争机器问题时，美国政府调整了其资源分配，找到了亨利·凯撒，并命令其建造船只，要求福特汽车公司生产坦克和一些飞机。他们以一种难以置信的方式重新排序了美国产业企业，因为他们有联邦政府的权力，有美国商业的创新能力和设施，这导致了非常成功的结果。但在和平时期，我们能重现这种模式吗？在和平时期，你需要协调五十个州，你没有可以下达命令的人，你只能提供税收刺激等方式，但是我们还没有建立起类似二战时期我们使用工业产能战胜了轴心国的团结目标和机制。我们现在该如何再次创造这种方式呢？我不确定答案，但是我确定问题存在。我认为，如果你面临紧急情况，你真正需要做的是重新设计美国能源系统。我认为我们在和平时期中无法做到这一点，因为我们习惯了按照一定的程序行事。中国只有一个国家，而我们有五十个州和一个不同的政府系统，但我们应该通过考验。
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This question comes from Chris Fried in Philadelphia he says we know that Greg Able and a Jeet Jane are the next generation of Berkshire leaders who are currently behind Greg and a Jeet in their perspective roles respect well that will be the question that they give their well Greg will be have something extraordinary circumstances but he's going to succeed me and then he will have be sitting in a position where he needs his equivalent or something close to his equivalent because he's better than he thinks than I've been he will lead that a substitute and when the when the question comes where we know a Jeet's opinion on that and but Greg will probably be the one that will make make the final decision I mean it says we're being his responsibility and a Jeet will give him his best advice and I think the others are very very very high Greg would follow it so but it's not those are not easy easy questions
PHILADELPHIA地区的Chris Fried询问道，我们知道Greg Able和Jeet Jane是Berkshire未来的领导者，目前他们在各自的位置上表现出色。问题是，如果出现了非常特殊的情况，Greg将接替我，他将需要一个类似的人来辅助领导，因为他比我表现得更出色。最终决策可能由他来做，而Jeet会提供他的最佳建议。我认为，Greg会高度重视Jeet的意见，但这些都不是易于解决的问题。
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it isn't like we've everybody talks about the executive bench and all of that sort of thing which is belonging I mean you know you don't have that many people that can run five the largest gap net worth company and all kinds of diverse businesses but you don't need five people either and you need a lot of good operating managers and you need somebody at the top that allocates capital and make sure that you've got the right operating manager and we've designed design something where we separate the insurance and the rest of the business and I think it's a very good design but they would not be smart we wouldn't be smart and name that decision now about the two different different areas of the business because a lot can change between now and then and the most likely changes at this job changes
并不是像大家谈论的那样，我们需要一个高管班底之类的东西，这意味着你不需要太多人能够管理五个最大差距净资产公司和各种不同的业务，但是也不需要五个人，你需要很多优秀的运营经理，你需要一位顶级人物来分配资本，并确保你拥有正确的运营经理。我们设计了一些东西，将保险和业务的其他部分分开，我认为这是一个非常好的设计，但如果我们现在就做出决定将两个不同的业务分开，那么我们将不明智，因为在此时和未来之间有许多变化，而最有可能发生的变化是工作变化。
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Charlie I've got nothing to add we have a lot of good people that have risen in the birchers of city areas and there's a reason why our operations have been large done better than other big conglomerate companies and one of the things that is that we change managers way less frequently than other people do and that's helped us when Paul Andrews died we know we know who he thought should take over there but there wasn't any reason to to announce that I mean Paul Andrews would we should lift up the 100 we have we have one of our managers died not longer going how old was he at the garden? Yeah mid 90s see more yeah see more to live from see and see more I wrote him a letter when he was 80 and I said you know I'm glad you're 80 and I'll write you again one year 90 and I wrote him again one year's 90 and he didn't make it to 100 but he had a terrific follow following him and he really managed to jointly to some extent as the years went by but it's case by case and the main thing to do is have the right person running the whole place
查理，我没什么要补充的，我们有很多优秀的人在城市地区崛起，我们的业务比其他大型企业做得更好，其中一个原因是我们更换经理的频率要比其他公司低，这帮助了我们。当保罗·安德鲁斯去世时，我们知道他认为谁应该接管他的工作，但我们没有必要宣布这件事。我们应该关注我们的100位经理，如果其中有人去世，我们会像保罗·安德鲁斯一样对待他们，顺便提一下，我们有一个经理去世了，他在花园里工作时年龄是九十多岁。我在他80岁时写了封信，告诉他我很高兴他80岁了，一年后我又写了封信，他没有熬到100岁，但他拥有了一大批支持者，他真正成功地管理了一些地方，但每个情况都是不同的，最重要的是要有合适的人来管理整个地方。
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okay next question yes hello mr. Buffett and mr. Munger my name is Jeffrey Gelber from Miami Florida I'm a shareholder a proud shareholder and I'd like to thank you for the foundation of knowledge that you've provided and helping me shape my career as an investor and I appreciate your emphasis on the importance of character integrity and patience in business and in life and my question is given your emphasis on these values and your investment Principles how would you recommend I or anyone else reconcile Ideological differences in particular with those that may not share the same values of ethics and morality and perhaps how would you advise us to interact with those individuals
好的，下一个问题。您好，巴菲特先生和芒格先生，我叫杰弗里·杰尔伯，来自佛罗里达州迈阿密，我是一位自豪的股东。我想感谢您们提供的知识基础，帮助我塑造自己的投资事业。我欣赏您们强调商业和生活中品格、诚信和耐心的重要性。我的问题是，在您们强调这些价值观和投资原则的情况下，您会如何建议我或其他人调和意识形态上的分歧，特别是与那些可能不同意伦理和道德价值观的人交往时应该如何相处？
提示：本文主要讲了一个佛罗里达州股东对巴菲特和芒格提出的一个问题，询问如何处理与不同意道德价值观的人之间的分歧以及如何与这些人相处。
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well I would say first of all that I don't think we have all the answers in terms of how to interact with people that we really really disagree with in some respects we at Berkshire Hathaway have an owner's manual nobody else does but we have one and it talks about how everybody that's part of Berkshire should behave and then a very important paragraph says we can afford to lose money even a lot of money but we can't afford to lose reputation even a shred of reputation and the second paragraph of that pretty short owner's manual just says we will be candid in all our communications with you and we will not have second-class shareholders at Berkshire in any respect but beyond that we have 3000 companies that are our investees and I've written 2000 letters to a quarter of a million people about investing and write about every conceivable situation the real test is whether people act the way they say they're going to act and to some extent you have to take a chance on that and if it doesn't work out you've got to be prepared to walk away from it but I don't think there's any perfect solution to that problem and I don't think we've got all the answers about everything in terms of living our own lives you need some principles you need a few big ideas and then you need to stay within them and implicitly reject everything else and that's true in investment management is true in everything else but it's not something that you know you can't put it on autopilot and you have to keep making those decisions day by day
首先，我认为我们还没有完全掌握如何与那些在某些方面与我们极其不同意见的人交往的答案。在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司，我们有一本业主手册，其他人没有，而且这本手册讲述了每个参与伯克希尔的人应该如何行动。其中一个非常重要的段落是说，我们可以承受亏损，甚至可以承受大笔的亏损，但我们不能失去声誉，甚至一点点的声誉。手册的第二段非常简短，只是说我们将在与您的所有沟通中坦诚相待，并且我们在任何方面都不会有二等股东。除此之外，我们还有3000家我们投资的公司，我写了2000封给25万人关于投资的信件，并写了关于各种情况的文章。真正的测试是人们是否按照他们所说的去行动。在某种程度上，你必须冒险去尝试，如果不起作用，你就必须准备好放弃。但我认为，对于这个问题并没有完美的解决方法，也不是我们对于生活中的所有问题都有答案。你需要一些原则和一些大致的想法，然后在这些原则和想法的范围内继续前行，并默默地拒绝其他所有东西。这在投资管理中同样适用，在所有方面都同样适用，但这不是一件可以自动化的事情，你必须每天做出这些决定。
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let's hope the politicians can eventually figure it out too
希望政治家们最终也能够解决这个问题。
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it does seem like the level of incivility generally in life has picked up some we have a world where everybody's got a printing press and you and so everybody's got their own blog and they can say anything they want and they can find enough people probably to read it to make them think that other people agree with them and you got that all over the world I mean we've got it in this country we've got it all over the world and it's it can make some very unpleasant situations and then you add to that the fact that because of social media and all that people see other people that have a lot more than they have and they say well why shouldn't I have that that guy's an idiot and why's he got it which you know might be true sometimes but it doesn't change your life to keep condemning other people because then you ultimately start condemning yourself and so it's kind of a very difficult problem and of course we get occasional riots and all of that sort of thing and it's it's not good for anybody we have to try to minimize it but I don't have any perfect answer what Berkshire's tried to do is stick with people we like and stick with principles we admire and and go from there
现在，好像不文明的程度在生活中普遍增长了一些。现在每个人都有自己的印刷机，人们可以开展自己的博客，发布任何想说的话，还能找到足够的读者，认为自己的观点是被其他人认可的。这种现象发生在全世界，也包括我们国家。社交媒体上的人们经常看到比自己更成功的人，会产生嫉妒心理，感觉这些人不应该有这些成功，这种想法有时是真实的，但是一直谴责别人是没有用的，最终你会开始谴责自己。这是一个非常困难的问题，偶尔也会引发暴乱等不好的情况。我们要尽可能地减少这种情况的发生，但我没有完美的答案。伯克希尔公司试图保持和我们喜欢的人在一起，坚持我们尊敬的原则，并从这些基础上继续前行。
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okay station six good morning my name's Hach Okamotai from Miyazaki Japan I'm Mr. Buffett I was one of the 8000 employees at Salomon Brothers that you saved I was younger back then I was working at 7 Warwick Trey Center I always always wanted to thank you in person for saving the company it's in police including myself and my family so thank you Mr. Buffett Thank you and and and thank Derek thank Derek Maun who actually had been over in Japan before that and who I met for the first time the day before I put him in and he turned out to it wouldn't it wouldn't work if Derek hadn't come so whatever you taught him in Japan thank you Thank you sir now my question
第一段：
早上好，六号站，我叫岡本八（Hach Okamotai），来自日本宫崎。我曾是萨洛门兄弟公司（Salomon Brothers）其中一位您所拯救的8,000名员工之一。那时候我还年轻，在7 Warwick Trey Center工作。我一直都想亲自感谢您挽救公司，救了我和我的家人。非常感谢您，巴菲特先生。还要特别感谢Derek，他在这之前曾经来过日本，我当时是第一次见到他。如果没有Derek的出现，这一切都可能无法发生。所以，无论您在日本教给他什么，我们都非常感谢。谢谢您，巴菲特先生。现在我有一个问题。
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time to time you have reminded us to not bet against America what do you think are the most important things for us to remain strong and on the risk side if the strength of the country is undermined what could be the reasons well we've had we've had a lot of tests I mean we're such a young country you know when it's think about Japan and you think about the United States it's just incredible how new we are to the block I mean what are we 234 years old since we started that that's nothing I mean you know Charlie and I combined or two thirds of people have two thirds of the life of the country so and I mean it really has I mean we've been tested at 46 national elections but and we made some bad choices and we've had a civil war I mean so the country has had an enormous advantage just though in some way because we started with one half of 1% of the world's population in 1790 and we now have something close to 25% of the world's GDP and it wasn't because we had some incredible advantage in terms of it was nice to have two oceans on each side back when when people tried to rule the way rule the world by ruling the waves but you know and we had good neighbors in Canada and Mexico but it's a miracle and you say how do we keep the goods parts of the system while calling out our obvious defects and we do it in a very herky jerky matter
你时常提醒我们不要去押注美国，你认为美国保持强势和冒险方面最重要的事情是什么？如果国家的实力受到削弱，可能是什么原因呢？我们经历了很多考验，因为我们是一个如此年轻的国家。当你思考日本和美国时，我们才成立234年，这才是无法想象的。我们仅仅占了1790年世界人口的半个百分点，而现在我们拥有接近世界GDP的25％，这不是因为我们占有什么特别的优势，有两个被大洋包围的好选择当时的人们试图通过掌握航线来统治世界，但你知道我们在加拿大和墨西哥拥有好邻居。这是一个奇迹，你说我们如何在呼喊明显的缺陷的同时保持良好的制度呢？我们采取了很不连贯的方式来做。
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but net the United States was a better place to live but almost when I was born by a huge factor I mean I just got a root canal a week ago and I was just thinking I don't know who even Vennett know the game but I'm for him you know I mean but in a million ways I mean you can roll you can romanticize about the past but forget it it is it is work but now we do have an atom bomb and we wish nuclear power you know we wish the atom had never been split but but it has been and you can't put it back in the model so the challenges are huge our government always looks you know my dad was in Congress back in the 1940s and it looked like a mess then you know I all was unified by the war to some degree but it was still very partisan now the problem we have I think that partisanship it seems to me as move toward tribalism and tribalism just doesn't work as well I mean when it gets tribalism you don't even hear the other side and tribalism can lead to mobs I made it just it it flows I mean you've seen it else but we've seen it to a degree here so we have to refine in a certain way our democracy as we go along we deal with the world we live in but if I sell out of choice of any post to be born in the in the world I'd want to be born in the United States and I want to be born today
在我出生时，美国是一个更好的生活地方，但事实上，我刚动过根管治疗，一周前我还在想，我不知道甚至Vennett知道这场游戏，但我支持他，你明白我的意思。从各个方面来看，你可以将过去浪漫化，但最终还是要劳动。现在我们有原子弹和核能源，我们希望原子从未被分裂过，但它已经被分裂，并且无法回到模型中。挑战是巨大的，我们的政府总是看着的，我父亲在20世纪40年代曾是国会议员，当时情况看起来很糟糕，尽管通过战争在某种程度上统一了国家，但它仍然是非常党派化的。现在我们面临的问题是，我认为党派化似乎向部落化发展，而部落化只能起到一定作用。当它变成部落化时，你甚至听不到另一方的声音，部落化可能会引导成为暴徒。我本人遇过很多这样的情况，所以我们必须改善我们的民主，以适应我们生活的世界。如果我可以选择在世界上出生的地方，我会选择出生在美国，而且我想出生在今天。
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I mean it is it is a it is a better world than we've ever had and with present day communications we can all see so see see much more how terrible is in many ways and it's got problems when I was born in 1930 there were two billion people in the world and now there's maybe a hundred and point seven billion and growing and we went millennia with really no change in population so we and of course we've introduced energy into in an incredible way into something where we now have seven point seven billion people using way more than they did when I was born when there were two billion people so it's it's an exciting world it's a challenging world and I you know I don't know the solutions on things I do think that we do need to think about different solutions in terms of how we get important problems solved and we don't get ourselves that something magic will happen or that everybody will get together and we'll all just cheer and then go away by 2050 or any it and how well we adapt to that we will see I would say so far doesn't look very promising but then I'm sure that when Lincoln looks out of what was going on the Civil War didn't look very promising either so I think that the US is capable of doing remarkable things and I think I wouldn't surprise me if they do it again Charlotte Charlie me are you part of
这是一个比以往更好的世界，随着现代通讯技术的普及，我们可以更清楚地看到许多问题是多么的可怕，这个世界也存在问题。当我出生于1930年时，世界上有20亿人口，现在可能已经达到了107亿人口并且在不断增长。我们度过了几千年时间，人口几乎没有变化，当然，我们已经以一种难以置信的方式引入了能源，现在有77亿人口，使用的能量远远多于我出生时还有20亿人口。这是一个挑战和激动人心的世界，我不知道如何解决问题，但我认为我们需要想出不同的解决方案来解决重要问题。我们不能期待奇迹发生或所有人齐心协力，为了实现2050年的目标而欢呼并离开。如何适应这个挑战，我们将拭目以待。目前看来并不太乐观，但当林肯看着南北战争的局势时，也不曾看好过。我认为美国有能力做出杰出的事情，并且我相信他们也能再次做到，你是不是也为此而自豪呢？
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we're going to move to a more sustainable future but nobody knows how to get there yet I think the world will be a lot more prosperous a hundred years from now but whether it'll be happier then is a different question happiness in a sense comes from within and is a personal thing but I do think that access to the basics of life food shelter medical entertainment less drudgery being able to operate without fear these things will improve for a significant percentage of people in the world in the next hundred years I'd settle for that even if the GDP didn't go up very much in the century
我们正朝着更加可持续的未来迈进，但没有人知道如何实现这一目标。我认为，在未来的一百年里，世界会更加繁荣，但是否会更加幸福就是另一个问题了。幸福从某种意义上来说源自内心，是一种个人的东西。但我确信，在未来的一百年里，人们对于基本生活需求（如食物、住所、医疗、娱乐以及减少繁重劳动，能够摆脱恐惧等）的获取，将会对全球的相当比例的人群有所提高。即使在这一世纪里，国内生产总值（GDP）增长不会很高，我也愿意接受这一事实。
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we know how to solve the problem with diesel vehicles we've had the catalytic converter is for years we know how to clean up coal plants we know how to make buildings more energy-efficient we know a lot of things and we've put some of those things to work but it takes policy action to get best practices applied on a very broad scale if you look at wind solar and batteries which are just part of a very broad energy mix in the future we've made tremendous progress in the last decade things are getting better much faster than people anticipated and they will continue to do so that is the good news
我们知道如何解决柴油车的问题，我们已经有催化转化器来清理柴油车废气排放已经好几年了。我们知道如何清理煤炭发电厂，如何使建筑更加节能。我们知道很多事情，已经付诸实践，但是需要政策行动才能在非常广泛的范围内应用最佳实践。如果你看看风能、太阳能和电池，它们只是未来非常广泛的能源混合中的一部分，在过去十年中，我们取得了巨大进步，事情的进展比人们预期的要快得多，而且这种趋势将继续下去，这是好消息。
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I'm pretty sure that the American spirit the human spirit and the American economic system will get us to a better world in the future but how many problems we're going to have between now and then and how many retreats we have from a better world into a worse world because of mistaken policies or because of reactions to change I don't know
我相信美国精神、人类精神和美国经济体系都会让我们走向更美好的未来。但是，在此期间我们会遇到多少问题，我们会因错误的政策或对改变的反应而多少次从更好的世界中退缩，我不知道。
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a lot of people are coming into the stock market with the notion that they're going to get rich quick and I suspect that a few will but on balance the idea that you can take your spare change and put it into something and have it turn into a fortune in a few months I'm properly quite confident at that's not a good idea we tell people that we're not going to get rich selling them the secret of trading online we want them to do something that they've done since the cave man days which is buy a little bit of something that they think is a good business and hold it for a long time
很多人进入股市的想法是想快速致富，我认为有些人可能会成功，但总体来说，把零散的零钱投入某些东西，然后在几个月内变成一笔财富的想法是不现实的。我们告诉人们，我们不会通过出售在线交易的秘密来致富，我们希望他们做的是从早期人类就一直在做的事情，那就是购买一点他们认为是一个好生意的东西，并长期持有。
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Good morning everyone. I'm Warren Buffett, you're watching Yahoo Finance. It's Becky Quick here in Omaha, Nebraska. And Warren, we have about a thousand people who are here with us in the CenturyLink Center that we're talking to, but also folks all around the world who are tuning in today. And I think one of the biggest questions everybody has is what we're looking at as we're here in this environment that just feels so different from what we've seen in the past. What's your take on where we are in this moment in time?
大家早上好。我是沃伦·巴菲特，你们正在观看雅虎财经。我在内布拉斯加州奥马哈，贝基·快在这里与我一同进行交谈。我们在世纪泰联中心与现场的千名观众交流，同时还有来自世界各地的观众收看。我认为大家最关心的问题是，我们在这个环境中看到了什么，这个环境和我们过去所见的都非常不同。您认为我们现在的处境如何？
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It's been a really interesting year. It's been an amazing year for large American businesses on one hand. I mean, if you own an index fund and you just sit back, you've done better than if you bought stocks from any individual company. But on the other hand, the people that need to be remembered are people who have had crushing losses during this period.
第二段：
这是一个非常有趣的一年。 对于大型美国企业来说，这是一个不可思议的一年。 我的意思是，如果你拥有一只指数基金，坐等收益的话，你比购买任何个别公司的股票都要好。但另一方面，需要记住的是那些在这段时间中遭受沉重损失的人们。
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There have been a few people who have become very, very rich, but most people have had declines in income. Fortunately, Congress and the Federal Reserve have taken very, very strong action, particularly the Federal Reserve. They've shown they can buy the world without limit, and Congress has acted in a way that we never would have anticipated beforehand, but there have been a lot of people helped because of that.
有些人变得非常、非常富有，但大多数人的收入却有所下降。幸运的是，国会和联邦储备委员会采取了非常、非常强有力的行动，尤其是联邦储备委员会。他们已经展示出他们可以无限制地购买整个世界，而国会的行动也超出了我们之前的预期，但因此受到了很多人的帮助。
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And all told, we have the prospect of an economy which really, in 2022, has nothing fundamentally wrong with it. It works very well. Inflation is a risk, but it's not necessary. It's a risk because of the money we've printed, but it's not a necessary consequence of this. It's a risk because five, ten years from now, people will look back and say, "Where did we put all those trillions of dollars we printed?" And that could do it, but it's not going to happen in the next year or so. But we'll see how it works out.
总的来说，我们可以预见到在2022年，经济基本没有严重问题，它运转得非常好。通货膨胀是一个风险，但不是必然的。由于我们印刷的货币，它是一个风险，但这不是必然的后果。它是一个风险，因为五、十年后，人们会问：“我们印刷了那么多的数万亿美元，我们放在哪里了？”这可能会导致通货膨胀，但在未来一年左右不会发生。我们将看看它的进展如何。
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Well, I'm slightly less optimistic than Warren. I think the best road ahead to human happiness is to expect less. I think it's going to get tougher and I think the solution of having a huge proportion of the young and brilliant people in wealth management is a crazy development in terms of its natural consequences for American civilization. We don't need as many wealth managers. If you were Charlie, born on January 1st, 1924, and you'd hate to go back to that, wouldn't you? Try yes, I would. And I like more wealth managers who were just merely reflecting, "There's more wealth, but we've got." I don't like everybody going into wealth management. My tea or something, it's I think the world's a little crazy now, take your choice. Okay, Becky, this question comes from Dennis DeGenero.
嗯，我比Warren稍微悲观一些。我认为通向人类幸福的最佳道路是降低期望值。我认为未来将变得更加艰难，而将大量年轻而才华横溢的人才放置在财富管理领域，从它对美国文明的自然后果来看，是一个疯狂的发展。我们不需要这么多财富管理者。如果你是Charlie，出生于1924年1月1日，你不想回到那个年代，是吗？我的回答是，是的。我喜欢更多的财富管理者只是反映这一事实，“财富增加了，但我们还有更多的事情要做。”我不喜欢每个人都进入财富管理。我的意思是，我认为现在的世界有些疯狂，可以选择接受或不接受。好的，Becky，这个问题来自Dennis DeGenero。
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As Warren stated in the 2022 annual report, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash in US treasury bills. It will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. After Warren passes away, his A shares will be converted into B shares and distributed to various foundations. These foundations will then sell the shares to fund their causes, and estimates it will take 12 to 15 years for all his shares to be sold. I worry that a corporate raider like Carl Icahn or a group will buy up enough of these shares to take control of Berkshire and completely disregard Warren's philosophy of holding a lot of cash in US treasury bills, and instead be greedy, reckless, and highly speculative and ruin Berkshire's position as a rock-solid financial fortress. I also worry that changes might be made in how Berkshire's subsidiaries are run. Do Warren and Charlie worry that these things could happen?
正如华伦在2022年的年度报告中所述，伯克希尔将始终持有大量的美国国债现金。它还将避免可能导致在不便的时候出现任何不舒适的现金需求的行为，包括金融恐慌和前所未有的保险损失。在华伦去世之后，他的A股将转换为B股并分配给各种基金会。这些基金会将随后出售这些股票来资助他们的事业，估计需要12至15年时间才能出售他所有的股票。我担心类似卡尔·伊坎这样的企业掠夺者或一些集团会购买足够的这些股票，从而控制伯克希尔，并完全无视华伦持有大量美国国债现金的哲学，而是贪婪、鲁莽、高度投机，并破坏伯克希尔作为坚如磐石的金融堡垒的地位。我还担心伯克希尔的子公司可能会发生变化。华伦和查理是否担心这些事情会发生？
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Well, I think it's fair to say we think about it plenty, but I don't worry enormously. If we don't panic dividends in 12 or 15 years, you're talking a trillion and a half that would take to take over, and I think if we can't, that limits the group. They like to think about how much they can borrow against it all. It doesn't work when you have nobody to come close to doing it themselves, and I think that the important thing is that Berkshire be regarded as a national asset rather than a national liability. We've got to be a plus to the country with our form of operation, and we certainly have got a record which will then be 12 or 15 years longer, done with much more capital, more companies, more things will have happened where our hundreds of billions can work its way into the economy in terms of lots of jobs, lots of products, lots of behavior, and it can be compared with other things. So, I think we went out if we deserve to went out, and I think the odds of that happening are very, very, very high.
我认为可以说我们经常考虑这个问题，但我并不担心得太多。如果我们在12或15年内不恐慌地支付股息，需要的资金将达到1.5万亿美元，如果我们不能做到，这将限制我们集团的发展。他们喜欢考虑可以借多少钱，但如果没有自己能够借款的人，这种做法是不可行的。我认为重要的是将伯克希尔视为一项国家资产而不是国家负债。我们必须以我们的运营方式为国家创造价值，我们肯定会有比以前更多的资本、更多的公司，会发生更多的事情，我们数千亿美元的财富可以以创造大量的就业机会、产品和行为的方式流入经济，并且可以与其他事情进行比较。因此，我认为我们应该出去争取我们应得的回报，我认为这种可能性非常非常非常高。
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Well, we don't spend much time worrying about things like that. Having 50 years ago and ever and dead, I think you sort of take care of each day's responsibilities pretty well and think ahead as well as you can and you just take the results as they fall. So, I'm feel so old, but I'm not. I'm not. I'm not spreading unnecessary worry.
我们不会花太多时间担心这些事情。我认为50年前的经历已经过去了，死去的人也已经过去了，我们只需要好好处理每天的责任，并尽力往前看，最终接受结果。虽然我感觉有些老了，但实际上还不算。我不想让不必要的担忧扩散开来。
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Okay, neither one of us are worried basically, but we plan. We do plan, and you know, I've got a model in my mind of what Berkshire has been. That model has gotten, it's been modified plenty of times over 58 years. The one thing I know initially is, or very importantly was, it shouldn't be a textile company. That was an important decision. And every, we just played the hand as it come along, and we made a few really good decisions.
我们基本上两个都不担心，但我们有计划。我们确实有计划，你知道，我心中有一个伯克希尔的模型。这个模型在58年间已经被修改了许多次。我最初知道的一件事情是，或者非常重要的是，它不应该是一家纺织品公司。这是一个重要的决定。我们只是随着机会而玩牌，并做出了一些非常好的决定。
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We will never make a decision that kills us. The only things that are a threat to the planet, we don't have any answer for those. But we keep ourselves in better shape than anybody else that and we just aren't going to have big priorities of that that come along.
我们永远不会做出危害我们自身的决定。我们没有任何对抗地球威胁的答案。但我们比其他人更加保护自己，我们不会对出现的大问题做出不负责任的决定。
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We aren't going to have insurance bottles he said can be cashed in en masse, and we will sit with a lot what looks like a huge amount of capital, and with this huge amount of capital, but there's a huge amount of earning power, there's a huge amount of diversity, everything. So, our business model will be graded, and it'll be graded against a lot of people that we like to be graded against.
他说，我们不会有可以集体兑现的保险瓶子，我们将与许多看起来像是大量资本的东西坐在一起，而有了这么多的资本，就有了大量的赚钱能力，有大量的多样性，一切都有了。因此，我们的商业模式将得到评估，将与我们想受到评估的很多人进行比较。
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So, I think we're handing something very secure over to the future, and I think we've got the shareholder base like nobody has. I mean, there isn't anybody in the country that I know of unless they've had a shareholder, they're employing company prior to going public or something of the sort, but this is the product of 58 years of regarding the shareholder.
我认为我们正在将一样非常安全的东西交给未来，而我们拥有像没有人一样的股东基础。我的意思是，我不认识国内有哪个人除非他们在上市前曾是雇用公司的股东或类似情况，但这是对股东关注长达58年的结果。
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As the owner of the company but what does that mean that means having happy customers it means being it means being welcomed by your community rather than having them so it turns you away it means that the government feels better with you if there's a financial crisis because you're you can provide something that actually the company the country can't under some circumstances and you'll be there and the government and same time it'll be good for the business and we will have crises of one sort or another but if they aren't challenging the planet which words you in terms of some of the threats that we have we'll be a plus to the United States and if we're a plus to the United States we'll survive okay
作为公司的所有者，这意味着什么，意味着拥有满意的客户，意味着受到社区的欢迎，而不是让他们把你拒之门外。这意味着在财政危机时，政府会对你感到更加放心，因为你可以提供某些公司或国家无法提供的东西，在某些情况下你会在那里。与此同时，这对于商业来说也是有好处的，我们将会遇到各种危机，但如果它们不会威胁到地球，我们将成为美国的一项贡献，如果我们对美国有贡献，我们将会生存下去。
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Station 7 Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger thank you for having us this weekend my name is Bo Clayton and I'm from Durham North Carolina one of the reasons that we are all here is that you're great storytellers and we carry those stories back home with us can you please share a couple stories that maybe we haven't heard before about Mr. Able and Mr. Jane that captured their character and their caliber as leaders well I'll start out with the G
第七段：
第七站，巴菲特先生和芒格先生，感谢您在这个周末让我们来拜访。我叫博·克莱顿，来自北卡罗来纳州的达勒姆市。我们聚在一起的原因之一是因为您们是了不起的故事讲述者，我们会将这些故事带回家。您能否分享一些我们之前没有听说过的有关Able先生和Jane先生的故事，让我们更加了解他们作为领导者的个性和素质？嗯，我来先讲G。。。
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He walked into the office in 1986 and I've gotten the bright idea of going to the reinsurance business I think it may be 1969 so I'd stumble along for 17 years and a wonderful guy that didn't ran it but he also liked certain brokers and I mean he was running it the traditional way the top quality and everything else spoke but he fell into the he didn't try and change the system he tried to improve the system and to some degree and we just we won't we won't know where 17 years wandering around with the Woolworths and I thought I was I knew we could have something good and then the Jake came in on a Saturday and my goal was to work and stirred him in.
1986年，他走进了这个办公室。我突然想到了重保险业务，可能是在1969年。于是我开始在这个行业摸爬滚打了17年。有一个很棒的家伙管理这个行业，他喜欢一些特定的经纪人。他用传统的方式管理，追求高品质，但他也会改进系统，而不是试图改变它。我们在17年的时间里徘徊在Woolworths，但我知道我们能开展一些好的业务。后来，Jake在一个星期六走进了这个办公室，我想让他加入我们的团队。
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I think and Mike deserves to be in shrine and perpetuity act and I talked with him and while I think maybe I was opening the mail on Saturday while I talked with him and he had absolutely zero experience with with insurance but he'd actually seen a good bit about corporate America operated because he'd been a management consoling and after talking with him I I knew I'd struck gold and so I hired him and gave him the backing of some money and we had a very good period in the market almost right away for him to act and and the G you know if I had the top pick of 10 insurance managers in the world I could take all 10 and they wouldn't you can't replace a G and we still enjoy talking we don't talk as frequently as he used to but we talk about every day.
我认为麦克值得被永久纪念，并且我与他谈过话。当时在周六我正在打开邮件，与他谈话的时候，他对保险一点经验都没有，但是他对企业运营有着很多经验，因为他是一名管理顾问。经过与他的交谈，我知道我捡到了宝，于是我雇用了他，并给了他一些支持的资金，并且我们在市场上很快就有了一段很好的时期。就算我从全世界选出十名保险经理，我也无法替代G，他是独一无二的。我们依然喜欢交谈，虽然不像以前那么频繁，但我们几乎每天都会交流。
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But he is he's one of a kind and you know if they're going to stick around long enough you only need one of a kind Paul Andrews stuck around at TTI had all the money in the world every time I talked to him about getting a raise or something of the sort he said we'll talk about that next year he was not what you get when you get the top draft picks from the leading business schools and I will say this I have never looked at where anybody went to school in terms of hiring I mean I just somebody mailed me a resume or something I don't get where they went to school and it just so happens that that she went to some pretty good schools.
他确实很与众不同，如果他们能够长时间留下，你只需要一个像他这样的人。Paul Andrews一直在TTI工作，他拥有世界上所有的钱。每次我和他谈加薪或类似的事情时，他都会说我们明年再谈。他不是那种来自领先商学院的头号选秀的人。我要说的是，我从来没有关注过任何人所在的学校地位方面，这与我进行招聘没有任何关系。我只是收到了某人的简历或其他信息，他恰好是从一些非常好的学校毕业的。
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but he isn't a G because he went to the schools and Charlie didn't tell a story or two how do you find William and Sanny? Well he was there but you got to recognize him I asked Louis once how he managed to play first ring football I think Stanford when he only weighed a hundred and sixty five pounds and he said well he says I was pretty quick and he was pretty quick but we have found a lot of people within our companies who were pretty quick it's it's a we had one got the quid at fourth grade in Ben Rossner and am I wrong?
但他不是一名“G”（“G”可能指“帮派成员”），因为他上了学，而查利并没有讲过他的故事。你怎么看威廉和桑尼呢？他在那儿，但你得认出他来。我有一次问路易斯，他怎么能够在斯坦福打一线足球，当时他只有165磅，他说：“我跑得很快”，他确实跑得很快，但我们在公司里找到了很多跑得比他还快的人。我们有一个人在本·罗斯纳的四年级就能跑得非常快，我说得对吗？
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I totally self educated Ben Rossner knew more about retailing and deal with neighborhoods and anybody and he watched everything in his business like a hawk and he was amazing now there was an example we never found anybody who could do what when Ben died that building he left us yeah and you want a story it's kind of interesting because Ben Rossner had a partner Leo Simon and least Leo Simon was Moana Burke Sonner Law and Leo therefore was very very very wealthy and and then started with nothing but they they liked each other and one time well before they got involved in the in the business of the business we bought but they got the idea of buying a submarine from World War I and taking it to the century of progress or the world's fair and effect in Chicago I think in 1933 so they bought the submarine for not probably nothing and they figured you know the average guy from Omaha was going to his first world's fair get into a submarine for a quarter or something that they'd pay it so they hauled it from Florida wherever they got they hauled it to Chicago and then they got into Chicago and they were hauling a submarine down the streets of Chicago and it was creating traffic problems like nobody could imagine so a cop came over and he said to Ben he says what do you think your guys are going with a submarine Ben says well I don't you say that you'll have to talk to my partner Mr. Cwoon the cop says gear on those just keep going and that was that was Ben Rossner and then Leo Simon died and when he died in 1967 or so Ben Rossner kept delivering half the profits to his widow who was incredibly rich of course being Moana Birch first born daughter
本·罗斯纳是一个完全自学的人，他比任何人都更了解零售和与社区打交道，他像老鹰一样观察着自己的业务，他很厉害。有一个例子，我们从未找到其他人能够像本死后那些建筑一样处理。有趣的是，本·罗斯纳有一个合伙人里奥·西蒙，而里奥是莫安娜·伯克的儿子，他非常富有。它们买了一艘一战时期的潜艇，并把它带到芝加哥的世纪展览会上展出。他们从佛罗里达州将潜艇拖到芝加哥，但这导致了一些交通问题。警察走过来问他们发生了什么事情，本·罗斯纳告诉他们去找他的合伙人里奥·西蒙，但警察只是让他们继续前行。里奥·西蒙去世后，本·罗斯纳继续将一半的利润交给他的富有寡妇娜，她是莫安娜·伯克的长女。
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I think I think Moana had nine girls in a role before Waller came along the 10th I may be lost by one but anyway I went to this fancy apartment and anyway Ben kept her in for half the deal and he had her sign the rent checks just so she would look like she was doing something in this business and she didn't need the money obviously but he just felt he was obligated once his partner Leo died and then she started criticizing him and at that point Ben went to her as lawyer or as her lawyer actually will fell sign her wherever happened to will but he gave me a call because Ben wanted to call me because he wanted me to buy it and he wanted me to buy bought it he'd be rid of the partner's ex-partners wife and he'd get he had me and.
我认为莫阿娜之前已经有九个女孩在演这个角色，直到沃勒成为第十个人。我可能搞错了一个人，但是无论如何，我去了一间豪华公寓。本想完成一半的交易，但是本一直让她留下来签房租支票，只是想让她看起来在这个生意中有所作为。显然她并不需要这些钱，但是一旦她开始批评他，Ben就像律师一样去找她，或者更确切地说，她的律师，will跟她签了什么，现在已经无从得知。但是Ben打电话给我，因为他希望我能买下这个东西，如果我买了，他就可以摆脱合伙人的前妻，而我也会得到它。
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Charlie come back and we went to Will Falsetiner's office and Ben says I'll work till the end of the year and that's all but I'll show you this thing for six million bucks and I have two million they cash and a couple of million at real estate and a couple of million at operating earnings that this is just crazy but he followed he was getting a lousy prize she was taking a half a lousy prize for half the money so he looked at me at some point Charlie you described the rest of it he said I heard here the fastest drawing the West he says draw he's selling his baby and he told us he's leaving I got Charlie on the side I said if this guy leaves at the end of the year he can throw away every psychology book that's ever been written I mean it isn't gonna happen and so we bought it and we lived happily ever after with Ben and one time he was taking me over to see a property we had in Brooklyn and along the way I said Ben I you know I promised you I wouldn't interfere in the business when we started and he knew a butt was coming and he just said thank you Warren and they're shutting down he was a lot of fun we we have so many Ben Rosner stories but now you've heard one that hasn't been published before
查理回来后，我们去了威尔-法尔塞蒂纳的办公室，本说他会干到年底，只要六百万美元就行了，但他还有两百万现金、几百万房产和经营收益，这太疯狂了。但是他跟着投资，因为他得到了不错的回报，她只花了一半的钱拿到了一半的奖励。所以本在某个时候看着我，说：“查理，你告诉他剩下的吧。”他说他听说那个卖家是西部最快的枪手，他说“开枪”（指投资）。他告诉我们他要离开。我拉着查理在一旁说，如果这个家伙年底离开，他可以把所有心理学的书都扔掉了，我是说这不会发生的。结果我们买了下来，跟本生活得很幸福。有一次他带我去看我们在布鲁克林的一处房产，途中我说本，你知道我之前答应过你不会干涉我们的合作，但是我要告诉你......他知道有个转折点来了，只说了“谢谢你，沃伦”，然后他们把生意搞砸了，这真是太有趣了。我们有很多本·罗斯纳的故事，但现在你听到了一个以前没公开过的。
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okay Becky this question comes from Chi Go Hill he writes this is for a G re insurance industry is going through one of the hardest pricing environments in the last 15 years Berkshire historically has participated during these stress times when economic returns are very attractive this year it appears Berkshire has not been interested in deploying its resources towards property cat re insurance despite such strong returns can you elaborate on reasons for not participating despite these returns and your broader view on how you're planning to shape your reinsurance business post acquisition of Allegheny okay
好的，贝基，这个问题来自Chi Go Hill，他写道，这是为了G再保险行业。过去15年中，再保险行业正在经历其中最困难的定价环境之一。伯克希尔历史上参与了这些压力时期，当经济回报非常有吸引力时。今年似乎伯克希尔没有对房产CAT再保险部署资源的兴趣，尽管这样的回报很强。你可以详细说明不参与的原因以及你的更广泛的观点，如何在Allegheny收购后塑造你的再保险业务。
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in terms of Allegheny that's an easy response we look we treat operating units independent of each other and as far as Allegheny is concerned they have a major presence in the reinsurance business under the brand name of Francis Land degree that company will operate the way it's been operating in the past there'll be no change in terms of strategy or management and they will keep doing what they're doing they've been very successful and hopefully they'll keep being successful
在Allegheny方面，这是一个简单的回答。我们将各个业务部门看作是独立的，就Allegheny而言，他们在再保险业务中拥有一个重要的品牌——Francis Land Degree。该公司将像以往一样运营，其战略和管理不会有任何变化，他们将继续做他们一直以来做得非常成功的事情，我们希望他们能够继续取得成功。
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now in terms of the property cat business that I have been active in over these last several years you're right that the last 15 years has been a difficult time prices have not been attractive and even though we have had some presence in the property cat business in the last 15 years it really is been minimal
关于我在过去几年中一直从事的财产灾害毛皮业务，你说得很对，过去15年一直是困难的时期，价格并不具有吸引力，尽管在过去的15年里我们一直在财产灾害毛皮业务中存在，但实际上它非常有限。
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this December 31st which is a big renewal date for cat re insurance we were hoping that we would get a few days in the sun and we'd be able to deploy our capital and be able to write some fairly attractive business as it happened towards the end of December till about the third week of December I was very optimistic that we would get a chance to put several billion dollars on the books but in the last 10 days of December unfortunately a lot of capacity came out of the woodworks pricing that we were expecting to realize didn't really come and meet our pricing requirements as a result of which January 1 was a big disappointment we did not write as much as we were hoping to write now fast forward to April 1 which is another big renewal date we had a lot of powder dry and we were lucky that we kept the powder dry because April 1 suddenly prices zoomed up again a lot higher than what they were on January 1 and started to look attractive to us
在这个12月31日，这是猫保险的一个重大续约日期，我们希望能有几天在阳光下，能够投入我们的资金，写出一些相当有吸引力的业务。到了12月底，直到12月的第三周，我非常乐观，认为我们有机会将几十亿美元的资金记录下来。但在12月的最后10天，不幸的是，许多容量出现了价格，我们期望能够实现的定价并没有真正满足我们的要求，因此1月1日是一个巨大的失望，我们没有写出我们希望的那么多。现在快进到4月1日，这是另一个重大的续约日期，我们有很多口粮，并且很幸运我们保持了充分的口粮，因为4月1日价格突然再次飙升，比1月1日高得多，并且开始对我们有吸引力。
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so now we have a portfolio that is very heavily exposed to property cat recipe to put that perspective our exposure today is almost 50% more than what it was 5, 6 months ago so we have written as much as our capacity will allow us to write we are very happy with what we've written the margins have been healthy the only thing that I want to mention to you is that while the margins have been healthy we have a very unbalanced portfolio what that means is if there's a big hurricane in Florida we will have a very substantial loss as opposed to that if we have a very big loss anyway other than Florida relative to our competition we will have a much smaller loss
现在我们的投资组合非常重视物业保险，以此来表明，我们今天的风险暴露比5、6个月前高出近50%。我们已经尽了自己的能力来书写投资，所写内容也令我们非常满意，毛利润也非常好。不过我想提醒大家的是，虽然毛利润表现良好，但我们的投资组合非常不平衡。这意味着，如果佛罗里达州遭受重大飓风灾害，我们将会有非常严重的财务损失；相反，如果其他地区遭受重大灾害，相对于我们的竞争对手，我们的损失会更小。
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I'm very happy with the portfolio it's been a lot better than what it's been in the past I don't know how long it'll last and of course if the hurricane happens in Florida we could lose across all the units we could lose as much as 15 billion dollars and if there isn't a loss we'll make several billion dollars as profit and as you tell them how long when you call me and said you'd like to expose us to whatever was a couple billion more of exposure how long I took to say yes yeah so the way we think about our exposures you know in the property in the insurance operations collectively across the entire company given that we have about a little less than 300 billion of capital we think of that as a 55% exposure that you're willing to take on so to complete Warren's story a few weeks ago we had about 13 billion dollars of exposure all across the globe and I called up Warren I said we have to 13 it'll be nice if we can go up to 15 that's a good round number and that was less than a 30 second phone call I think Warren said yes without even listening to what the numbers were I hope he calls me again
我对投资组合感到非常满意，它比以往任何时候都要好得多，我不知道会持续多久。当然，如果佛罗里达州发生飓风，我们可能会损失多达150亿美元，如果没有损失，我们将获得数十亿美元的利润。当你打电话告诉我你想暴露我们更多风险，增加几十亿美元的暴露时，我很快就答应了。我们考虑我们在全公司的财产和保险业务中的风险暴露，总资本约为3000亿美元，我们认为可以承受55％的风险。几周前，我们的风险暴露大约为130亿美元，我给沃伦打电话，告诉他我们必须把风险暴露提高到15亿美元左右，因为这是一个不错的框架，这个电话不到30秒钟。我想他会再次给我打电话。
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okay station eight hello my name is Adal Flores and I've been a shareholder for about 16 years and I'm coming from Guadalajara, Mexico my question is for Warren and Charlie companies have the eternal dilemma between brought building products that can make profits and increase their company competitive position in the best case you can build products that have both characteristics at the same time like Google did but most of the time companies need to choose between short-term profits and long-term defensibility for example Amazon was focused on building their famous Amazon flywheel with limited profits initially in order to obtain obtained stronger network effects with the hope of getting more defenseable profits in the future when you invest you constantly speak about the importance of building competitive modes what advice would you give to CEOs about how to balance this dilemma which is essentially short-term profits versus long-term defensibility thank you
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好的，第八个台站，大家好，我的名字是阿达尔·弗洛雷斯，我已经是一位股东约16年了，我来自墨西哥瓜达拉哈拉市。我的问题是关于沃伦和查理。公司经常会面临一个永恒的困境，即在产品可获利和提高公司竞争地位之间做出选择。在最理想的情况下，你可以建造既能赚钱又具备这两个特点的产品，就像谷歌所做的那样，但大多数情况下，公司需要在短期获利和长期可持续性之间做出选择。例如，亚马逊致力于建立其著名的亚马逊飞轮，在最初获得有限的利润的同时，通过获得更强的网络效应，希望在未来获得更具防御性的利润。在投资时，您不断谈论建立竞争模式的重要性。您会给首席执行官们什么建议，如何平衡这一困境，即短期获利与长期可持续性。谢谢。
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well the answer to control your destiny which we've been able to do it Berkshire so we have we feel no pressure from Wall Street you know we don't have investor calls we don't have to make promises we get a chance to make our own mistakes and occasionally find something that works well but we recognize that the people in this room and people like them are the ones that we're working for and we're not working for a bunch of people that care about whether we meet the core rest of the matter so we have a freedom that we get to use and we're interested in owning a wonderful business forever well there aren't very many wonderful businesses but we do learn a lot as we go along we Charlie and I have often mentioned how we learn so much when we bought C's candy which we did but we learned when we bought Ben Rogers chain of women's dress shops spread all over the eastern part of the country we learned when we tried getting into the department store business back in 1966 and as the ink was drawing on our purchase price we realized we'd done something dumb but we're learning all the time how consumers behave I'm not going to be able to learn the technical aspects of businesses but that you know that be nice if I knew it but it isn't essential.
在伯克希尔，我们掌握了命运的控制，感受到了来自华尔街的压力较小。我们没有投资者电话，也不需要做出承诺，可以犯错并发现成功的机会。但我们也明白，我们所服务的是在场的人们，类似他们的人，而不是那些只关心我们是否达成核心目标的人。我们拥有自由，可以自由运用，而且我们希望永久地拥有优秀的企业，虽然这样的企业很少见，但我们在学习中不断成长。查理和我经常提到，在我们购买西之国糖果公司时我们学到了很多，也学到了很多在购买本.罗杰斯的女装店连锁店时，还有在1966年尝试进入百货店业务时。虽然我学不会技术方面的企业知识，但如果能学会也不错，但并不是必要条件。
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and you know we are obviously we've got a business at Apple which is larger than our energy business and we may only own 5.6 or 7% but our ownership goes up every year and I don't understand the phone law but I do understand consumer behavior and I know how people think about whether to buy a second car I know how they go out to different we own auto dealerships we're learning all the time from all of our businesses how people react to granables versus selling them something else and so C's was a sort of breakthrough but we just keep learning as to more about how people behave and how a good business can turn into a bad business and how some good businesses can maintain their competitive advantage over time and so we don't have some formula for people we just but we can also tell in 10 seconds whether it's something of interest.
我们显然拥有一个比我们的能源业务更大的苹果业务，尽管我们只拥有5.6％或7％的所有权，但我们的所有权每年都在增加。我不懂电话法，但我懂消费者行为，我知道人们在考虑是否购买第二辆车时会如何思考，我知道他们如何前往不同的汽车经销商。我们从我们所有的业务中不断学习人们对产品和销售的反应，C是一个重要的突破，但我们不断学习更多关于人们行为的知识，以及良好的业务如何变成糟糕的业务，以及一些良好的业务如何保持其竞争优势。因此，我们没有某种公式，但我们可以在10秒钟内判断某件事是否有趣。
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I mean when I get these calls and we want to send decks and all that sort of which is nonsense I mean it's a bunch of guys setting get paid for drawing up these projections of the future and everything like that if they knew the future we don't know the future but we do know certain kinds of businesses we know what the right price is and we know what we think we can project out in terms of consumer behavior and consumer and threats to a business and that's what we've been about and that's what we'll continue about we do get we don't get smarter over time we get we get a little wiser though following it over time and you can do it while sitting in the office with a telephone too which we like Charlie tell them the story of the Japanese investment that that should be told again that's a nice story.
当我接到这些电话时，他们想要发送这些幻灯片，这些都是无稽之谈，我是指一群人为撰写未来预测而获得报酬，而真实情况并非如此，如果他们知道未来，我们也不知道未来，但我们了解某些类型的商业活动，我们知道正确的价格以及我们可以预测消费者行为和对企业的威胁，这就是我们一直在做的，这也是我们将继续做的事情，我们并没有变得更聪明，但我们会随着时间的推移变得更明智，你可以在办公室里通过电话来做到这一点，这正是我们喜欢的。夏洛特告诉他们那个日本投资的故事，那真是个好故事。
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well it was pretty simple I mean I you know other back when I started other people were going through playboy and I was going through moody so I mean basically and there's a movie I'll call turn every page which I saw again for the second time a couple of days ago Lizzie got late but I recommend everybody in this world watch that because I turned every page in the past and I did it for thousands and thousands of pages and moody and I did it at the Department of Public Utilities in Boston I did it at the insurance department that you just kept turning pages well that that goes on for for a while but now we need big ideas in order to find things and and what was your question Charlie? Get down about the Japanese.
这很简单。说实话，当我开始的时候，别人在看《花花公子》，而我在看《懵懂岁月》。我看了一部名为《翻到每一页》的电影，几天前又看了第二遍。我推荐每个人都去看一下，因为我之前也翻了成千上万页的《懵懂岁月》，无论是在波士顿的公共事业部门还是保险部门，我都在翻阅着文件。虽然这种翻页的工作很枯燥，但我们需要大型创意来发现事情。那么，你的问题是什么，查理？你对日本人感到沮丧？
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Well, the Japanese thing was simple. I mean, it kind of makes sense. I like looking at companies- I mean, I like looking at figures about companies.
嗯，日本的事情很简单。我是说，有点能理解。我喜欢看公司的数据 - 我是说，我喜欢看有关公司的数字。
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Here were five very substantial, understandable companies, most of them, maybe all of them, we've done business within a dozen different ways.
这里有五家非常实在、易于理解的公司，其中大部分，也许全部，我们都以十几种不同的方式与它们进行了商业往来。
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If you go a couple of miles from where this place is, our last cold-generating plant was built by one of the companies. So here they were, sitting as a group where they were earning, we'll say 14%, on what we were going to pay to buy them. They were paying decent dividends, they were going to repurchase shares. In some cases, they owned a whole bunch of businesses that we could understand as a group, although we didn't mean we had deep understanding on anything, but we saw them operating everything. There wasn't anything to it.
如果从这个地方走几英里的距离，我们最后建造的冷却发电厂是由其中一家公司建造的。所以他们就坐在那里一起挣钱，我们将支付给他们的费用中，他们挣了14％。他们支付了相当不错的红利，并准备回购股份。在某些情况下，他们拥有一些我们能够理解的企业，虽然这并不意味着我们深刻了解任何东西，但我们看到他们正在经营每一件事情。这没什么可说的。
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At the same time, we could take out the currency risk by financing in the end, and that was going to cost us half a one percent. Well, if you get 14% on one side, a half percent on the other side, and you've got money that you know forever, and they're doing intelligent things and they're sizable, so we just started buying them. I didn't even probably tell Greg until maybe six months after we'd gotten going.
与此同时，我们可以通过最终融资来消除货币风险，这将花费我们0.5%的成本。如果你一边得到14%的收益，一边得到半个百分点的利率，而且你知道这些钱永远在那里，而且他们在做明智的事情，规模也不小，所以我们开始购买它们。我甚至可能在我们着手行动6个月后才告诉Greg。
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Then we hit five percent in all of them. We announced on my birthday, and at nine days at the way owned over five percent. And recently went over for the first time to visit with them, and we were more than pleasantly surprised, delighted with what we find there. And now we own seven point four percent of it. We won't go over nine point nine without their agreeing, and we sold another 164, whatever it is, billion of a billion of what have done for us if we only had five billion dollars or something and it made ten billion dollars.
接着我们在所有股份中都达到了5%的持股比例。在我的生日上，我们宣布了这个消息，而在接下来的9天里，我们的持股比例就已经超过了5%。最近，我们第一次拜访了那家公司，并对我们在那里发现的一切感到非常愉快和惊喜。现在，我们拥有了7.4%的股份。如果没有他们的同意，我们不会超过9.9%的持股比例。而且我们已经出售了价值164亿美元的股份。这些股份如果我们只有50亿美元的资金，最多只能赚取10亿美元。
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Simply in that way, we would look at heroes now. Ten billion just sort of disappears as it's a little dot in Berser's reports, but it's fun and it's fun. And it's ten billion dollars, and Charlie says it keeps. And Charlie says it keeps me out of bars. I probably talked to Charlie about this at the year after he started. I don't know who knows.
就是这样，我们现在看待英雄。100亿美元对Berser报告来说只是一个小小的点，但这很有趣，真的很有趣。而且这是100亿美元，Charlie说它很有意义并且能让我远离酒吧。我可能在Charlie开始后的那一年就和他谈过这个话题，我不知道谁知道。
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We tried to do every dollar we would do. We can only do about ten billion. Yeah, well, not even that quite that much, yeah, but you know, we are four or five billion they have plus dividends and we got a carry that's terrific, and they welcome us. And they should welcome us, but we love it the way they're operating. We're not there to tell them what to do in the least. So we did, and we did say we never go over at nine point nine, and we mean it, and they know that we'll be true to our word.
我们尽力为每个美元做到最好。但我们只能做到大约100亿美元。可能还没有那么多。不过，我们持有四五十亿美元的股票和红利，加上我们持有的优质投资，他们欢迎我们的到来。他们应该欢迎我们，因为我们喜欢他们的运营方式。我们没有打算向他们发号施令。我们告诉他们我们永远不会超过9.9亿美元，这是我们的承诺，他们知道我们会言出必行。
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I went over there partly to introduce Greg to those people because we're going to be with them ten, twenty, thirty, forty years from now, and they may occasionally find something that we can do jointly. And they look forward to doing that. We look forward to it. In addition, we have some other operating businesses in Japan, so Greg, you have anything?
我去那里的部分原因是要向那些人介绍Greg，因为我们未来十年、二十年、三十年、四十年可能会和他们在一起，他们偶尔可能会找到我们可以合作的事情。他们期待着这样做，我们也期待着。另外，我们在日本还有一些其他运营业务，Greg，你有什么想说的吗？
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The only thing I would add is that when Warren went over there, it was to build the trust with these Japanese companies because we do hope there's long-term opportunities. But fundamentally, as you highlighted, they've been a very good investment. I'd also highlight the five meetings we had were really quite remarkable. I mean, these companies, the culture and the history around it, and how proud they are. You know, there's just moments of learning from them. So it was just a great experience to spend really two days with the five companies.
我只想补充一点，当沃伦去日本的时候，他是为了与这些日本公司建立信任，因为我们希望有长期机会。但是，正如你所指出的那样，它们一直是非常好的投资。我还想强调我们进行的五次会议真的非常值得称赞。我是说，这些公司、文化和历史以及他们有多么自豪。你知道的，有些时候我们从他们身上学到了很多东西。所以，能够和五家公司度过两天真是一次很好的体验。
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And an issue that we intended to be 56 billion of yen that we were issuing and selling turned out to be 164.4, something like that. Everything works so well, and as Charlie says it, it doesn't move 500 billion of net worth that much, but this one is, you know, it will keep adding over the years to the Berkshire's value. It was very widespread, probably 4-500 million dollars a year, and you know, we'll just keep looking for more opportunities in Japan.
我们原本打算发行并出售价值 560 亿日元的债券，但最终实际数字达到了 1,644 亿左右。虽然这并没有显著影响伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的 5000 亿净资产，但这笔交易将在未来持续增加公司的价值。该交易范围广泛，每年可能达到 4-5 亿美元，我们将继续在日本寻找更多机会。
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We are Berkshire is the largest borrower outside of corporate borrowers outside of Japan that exists, and we didn't set out to be that, but it's turned out that way. And we're not done, I mean, in terms of what may come along there, and we have some direct operations there, as I mentioned, and we've got some really wonderful partners working for us. And I don't have to do anything.
伯克希尔是日本企业借款以外最大的借款人，我们并没有刻意去尝试成为这样一个角色，但事实上就是这样。而且我们还不打算停止，有可能会有更多的机会出现。我们在那里有一些直接经营，正如我刚才提到的，我们还有一些非常出色的合作伙伴为我们工作。我也不需要做任何事情。
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Okay, Becky. The next question comes from Ellie Amin Tibet, who asks, during an episode of investing the Templeton way podcast, professor Damodara, and who he respects almost as much as Warren and Charlie mentioned that he is not comfortable with positions becoming a large part of his portfolio, for example when they reach 25 to 35 percent.
好的，贝基。下一个问题来自埃莉·阿明·西藏，她在投资坦普尔顿方法播客的一集中问，当达莫达拉教授谈及他不喜欢某个头寸成为他投资组合的大部分，例如当它们超过25至35%时，他提到他几乎和沃伦和查理一样尊重的人。
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He mentioned that Apple is now 35 percent of Berkshire's portfolio and thinks that that is near a danger zone, wonders if... Warren and Charlie can comment.
他提到苹果公司现在占伯克希尔公司投资组合的35％，认为这已接近一个危险的区域，怀疑......沃伦和查理能否评论一下。
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I'll leave you man one comment first but Charlie will come up with I think you thought there was one yeah I know that that's coming but Apple is not thirty five percent of Berkshire's portfolio Berkshire's portfolio includes the railroad, the energy business, the maradamals, you name it C's candy they're all businesses and you know the good thing about Apple is that we can go up they buy in their stock and instead of owning 5.6 percent you know they get down to they got about 15 billion seven hundred and some million shares outstanding they get down to 15 and a quarter billion without us doing anything we got six percent so we can't own more than a hundred percent of the world that be NSF we can't own more than a hundred percent of granables or C's candy and it'd be nice we'd love it on 200 percent but it's just isn't doable but they're all the same they're good businesses and to think that our criterion criteria for Apple is different than the other businesses we only just happens to be a better business than any we own and we put a firm on a money and we haven't got more money than we've gotten the railroad and Apple is a better business our railroad is a very good business but it's not remotely as good as Apple's business.
首先，我要给你们一个评论，但Charlie会想到，我认为你们以为伯克希尔的投资组合中只有苹果公司，是吗？我知道这个问题肯定会被提出来，但是苹果公司不是伯克希尔投资组合的35%。伯克希尔的投资组合包括铁路、能源业务、玛拉达姆斯、C公司糖果，以及其他很多企业。苹果公司的好处在于，我们可以利用他们股票的涨势增加我们的收益，不用做任何事情，他们持有的股票已从157亿股减少到152.7亿股。我们持有的6%股份已经是最高了，我们不能拥有世界超过100%的股份，如同我们也不能拥有格兰纳布尔斯或C公司糖果超过100%的股份。这些都是好企业，我们选择苹果公司不是因为我们的标准不同，而是因为它是我们拥有的企业中最好的。我们会专注于这个企业并投入更多的资金，但我们必须一定要记住我们所拥有的铁路也是非常好的企业，只是不及苹果公司的好。
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Apple you know has a position with consumers where they're paying you know maybe the paid 1500 bucks or whatever it may be for a phone and these same people pay 35,000 for having a second car and if they had to give up a second car or give up their iPhone they give up their second car I mean it's an extraordinary probably we don't have anything like that that we own a hundred percent of but we're very very very happy to have 5.6 or whatever it may be percent and we're delighted every tenth of a percent that goes up that's like adding a hundred million dollars to our earnings our share of the earnings and they use their earnings to buy out our partners which we're glad to see them sell out till the index funds have to sell they bring the number shares down and you know I'm good we went up slightly last year and I made a mistake a couple of years ago and I sold some shares when I had certain certain reasons why gangs were useful to take that year from a tax standpoint but having heard having heard me say that it was a dumb decision and you've already given your comment about it but we do not have 35% of Berkshire's portfolio Berkshire's portfolio is the funds we have to work with and we want to own good businesses and we also want to have plenty of liquidity and beyond that you know the sky's the limiter or our mistakes who knows what the bottom is.
你可能知道，苹果在消费者心中占据着一种地位，他们可能花费1500美元或更多购买一部手机，而同样的人为拥有第二辆汽车支付了35,000美元。如果他们必须放弃第二辆车或放弃iPhone，他们会选择放弃第二辆车。我认为这是非常特别的，我们没有完全拥有的东西，但我们很高兴拥有5.6%或更多的股份。每上升0.1%对我们来说都像增加了1亿美元的收益份额，我们会用这些收益来收购我们的合作伙伴，我们很高兴看到他们出售直到指数基金不得不减少股票持有量，我们去年涨了一点而我几年前犯了一个错误，当时因为税收原因我出售了一些股票，但事后发现是一个愚蠢的决定，你们已经给出了你们的评论，但我们没有占据Berkshire投资组合的35%。Berkshire的投资组合是我们必须应对的基金，并且我们想拥有良好的企业和充足的流动性。除此之外，谁知道我们的错误在哪里停止。
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I'm sure you want to add anything to your earlier comment well I think one of the and main things that's taught in modern university education is that a vast diversification is absolutely mandatory and investing in common stocks that isn't the same idea it's not that easy to have a vast plethora of good opportunities that are easily identified and if you've only got three I'd rather read my best ideas instead of my worst and now some people can't tell their best ideas from their worst and the act of deciding that the investment already is good they get the thing it's better than it is I think we make fewer mistakes like that than other people and that is a blessing to us we're not so smart but we kind of know where the edge of our smartness is that is a very important part of practical intelligence and a lot of people who are geniuses on IQ tests think they're a lot smarter than they are and what they are is dangerous and better but if you know the edge of your own ability pretty well you should ignore most of the notions of our experts about what I call de-worseification of portfolios.
我相信你希望补充一些先前评论的内容。我认为现代大学教育所教授的其中一个主要内容是必须进行广泛的多元化投资，而投资于普通股票则不同。要有大量容易识别的好机会并不容易。如果你只有三个机会，我宁愿阅读我最好的想法而不是最差的。有些人无法区分他们的最佳和最差的想法，一旦决定投资，他们会认为这样投资效果比实际要好。我认为，我们犯的这种错误要比其他人少，这是我们的一种幸福。我们并不是那么聪明，但我们知道自己的聪明边界在哪里，这是实用智慧的一个非常重要的部分。很多在智商测试中很聪明的人以为自己比实际上聪明许多，这是有危险的。但如果你很好地了解自己的能力边界，那你应该忽略大多数专家关于投资组合的“去劣化”想法。
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Okay, yeah, session 9 Hi Charlie and Warren, thank you for this superb shareholder meeting celebration my name is David Chung from Hong Kong and a proud graduate of Chicago Booth I'm also here with my two sons, Aiden and Ashen who's currently studying University of Chicago as a freshman and sophomore this is my second time attending the conference last being 2019 four years ago which I was only a guest shareholder of my friend Andrew so after the shareholder meeting I have decided to buy into Berger Halfaway which has given me a great return of 62% since 2019 so I want to thank you for that.
大家好，第九节会议，Charlie和Warren，感谢你们举办如此出色的股东会庆典。我是来自香港的David Chung，是芝加哥大学布斯商学院的毕业生，我还带着我的两个儿子，Aiden和Ashen，他们现在是芝加哥大学的大一和大二学生。这是我第二次参加会议，上一次是在2019年，那时我只是我的朋友Andrew的一位客人股东，股份有限。股东会议之后，我决定买入Berger Halfaway，自2019年以来它给了我62％的回报，所以我要感谢你们。
I have also taken one of your advice to give my children a share for each of their birthdays although they want a Berger Halfaway A shares they will do just fine with these. shares my question is how do you see the current US China Internet companies valuation and the price disparity given there has been many uncertainties such as geo political tensions, significant costs, optimizations with leaner US tech firms while China tech has been for all that already Charlie I want to...
我也采取了你的建议，为我的孩子每个生日都给他们分配一定的股份，尽管他们想要半路购买Berger A股，但这些股份也足够了。我的问题是，鉴于存在许多不确定因素，例如地缘政治紧张局势，重大成本和US科技公司精益优化，而中国科技已经超越了所有这些因素，在这种情况下，您如何看待当前美中互联网公司的估值和价格差异？ Charlie，我想要...
Well, there's been some tension in the economic relationship of the United States and China. I think that that tension has been wrongly created on both sides. I think we're equally guilty of being stupid. There's one thing we should do, it's get along with China and we should have a lot of free trade with China in our mutual interest and I just can't imagine it's just so obvious there's so much safety and so much creativity that's possible. Think what Apple has done by engaging in a partnership with China as a big supplier, it's been good for Apple and good for China. That's the kind of business we'll be doing with China and more of everything that increases the tension between the two companies stupid stupid stupid.
目前，美国和中国的经济关系存在一些紧张局势。我认为，这种紧张局势是双方不理智的所致，我们同样愚蠢。我们应当做的一件事情是与中国友好相处，以我们的共同利益开展更多的自由贸易。我认为这是非常明显的。在与中国合作的过程中，苹果公司所取得的成功是很好的例证，这对苹果公司和中国都有好处。我们应当与中国展开更多的合作，以避免增加紧张局势，因为这是愚蠢的。
All of these stop on each side, and each side ought to respond to the other side's stupidity with receivable kindness that's my view. It creates one enormous problem, of course, which is that you have the two superpowers of the world and they know they have to get along with each other. You either want to destroy the other and they're going to be competitive with each other, but part of it is trying always in a game like that is trying to judge how far you can push the other guy without them reacting wrong, and you know if either side is a bully and some way they can get away with it to an extent because the alternative is would drive them both into destruction, but if they push it too far they increase the probability that something really does go wrong, so it's you know, it's one of those game theory though I'm...
所有这些都在两个方面停下来，每个方面应该用可接受的善意回应另一个方面的愚蠢，这是我的看法。当然，这创建了一个巨大的问题，那就是你有世界上的两个超级大国，他们知道他们必须相处融洽。你要么想摧毁对方并且他们会互相竞争，但其中一部分在这样的游戏中总是试图判断你可以把对方推到多远而不会做出错误的反应，你知道如果任何一方像恶霸一样，并且以某种方式可以在一定程度上逃脱惩罚，因为替代方案会把他们俩都带入毁灭。但是，如果他们推得太远，他们增加了出现真正错误的可能性，因此，你知道，这是那种博弈论，即我......
But you really need the leader of both countries, and you need the populist to understand at least the general situation in which these countries are going to operate over the next century and know that some leader of the promises too much can get you in a hell of a lot of trouble, and that like you know that you've got one kind of a system that gets this leader one way, and you've got another system that gets this leader another way, and keeping either side from trying to play the game too hard and thinking the other side will go along, you know, it's like playing chicken, you know, and driving toward a cliff. So it is if you've got any diplomacy skills, persuasive skills, or anything like that, you really want people that will convince the other country as well as their own country that this is what we're engaged in, we've got to do it right, we won't give away the store, but we won't try and take the whole story either, and we're just at the beginning of this unfortunately, and I mean we've learned what the situation was.
但是你真的需要两国领导人，也需要民粹主义者至少了解这两个国家在未来一个世纪即将操作的一般情况，并了解过多承诺的领袖可能会让你陷入麻烦，而且就像你知道的那样，你有一种让这位领袖走向的系统，而你又有另一种让这位领袖走向的系统，所以防止任何一方试图玩弄游戏，同时认为另一方会跟着做，你知道，这就像玩鸡儿游戏，一直向着悬崖驶去。因此，如果你具备任何外交技巧、说服技巧或其他技能，你确实需要那些能够说服对方国家以及本国的人说这是我们所从事的工作，我们必须做对，我们不会拱手让人，但也不会太过分想得到整个故事，而我们只是不幸地刚刚开始，我是说我们已经了解了情况。
It used to be the Soviet and the mutually assured destruction was our policy then, and that kept a lot of things from happening, but it also came with a very, very, very close call with Cuba, and these are not, you know, these are different games that existed hundreds of years ago, you know, Britain might rule the seas or France or Spain, but but now you're playing with the game that you can't really make a huge mistake in. And I think that that should be the better that's understood in both countries, the more the leaders feel that their citizenry does understand that, the better off will be, and that a lot of democratic demography or the lot of inflammatory speaking, but a lot of authoritarian action. I mean, it all carries its dangers, and the world has stumbled through the years post-1945 with a lot of close calls from the in the nuclear arena and now we've got pandemics and we've got, we've got cyber and a whole bunch of other things, so we've got more tools of destruction than the world's ever had, and it's imperative that China and the United States both understand what the game is and understand that you can't push too hard but we're going but both places are going to be competitive and both can prosper. That's that's what really is that's that's the vision that is out there, that China will have a more wonderful country, you know, United States will have a more wonderful country, and and and the two are not just compatible they're almost imperative in terms of what's going to happen in the next 100 years or so, and I think that the leaders of both countries have got a important job in in having that understood, and not to do inflammatory things, and we'll see whether the law that has taken us from 1945 to present holds out, and I think we can affect to some extent that law, and without a sure message, we won't hold the back of you.
过去苏联和互相保证毁灭是我们的政策，这种政策避免了很多事情的发生，但也导致了与古巴非常非常非常接近的危机。这不同于几百年前的游戏，比如英国可能统治海洋，或是法国、西班牙，但现在你在玩一个你不能犯太大错误的游戏。我认为，两国应更加理解这一点，国家领导人认为他们的公民理解这一点越多，就越能避免很多民主人口统计学或煽动性言论，以及很多专制行为。所有这些都有其危险性，世界从1945年以来在核领域中度过了很多的接近危机，现在我们有了流行病、网络安全等等，我们拥有比世界上以往任何时候拥有的更多的毁灭工具，所以中国和美国都必须理解这个游戏，不能推得太紧了，但两个地方都将竞争，两个地方都能繁荣。这真正是未来愿景，中国会变得更美好，美国也会变得更美好，两者不仅相容，几乎是在未来100年左右发生的事情中不可或缺的。我认为，两国领导人有着重要的工作要做，让人们理解这一点，不要做煽动性的事情，我们将看到从1945年到现在的法律是否能保持下去，我认为我们可以在某种程度上影响这个法律，如果没有明确的信息，我们将无法支持它。
This question comes from Roheke Bellany Berkshire bought a substantial position in Taiwan semiconductor and contrary to its normal holding timelines sold almost the entire position within a few short months while you cited in a C&BC interview that geopolitical issues were the catalyst these issues were seemingly no different when you acquired that stock so what else have anything changed in those few months imprompted the firm to offload close to five billion dollars worth of Taiwan semiconductor shares.
这个问题来自Roheke Bellany Berkshire。该公司购买了台湾半导体的大量股份，并出人意料地在短短几个月内几乎全部抛售，而你在一次C&BC采访中提到地缘政治问题是导致这种情况的催化剂，但在你收购该股票时，这些问题似乎没有什么变化。那么，这几个月发生了什么变化促使公司出售价值近50亿美元的台湾半导体股票？
Taiwan semiconductor is one of the best managed companies and important companies in the world and there is not and I think you'll be able to say the same thing five or ten or twenty years from now. I don't like its location and reevaluated that I mean I don't want these to be any place but Taiwan although they will be obviously opening up ship capacity in this country and actually one of our subsidiaries that we got in these is participating in their Arizona construction activities but it's it's a question of we would rather have the same kind of company and there's nobody in the ship company there's no in the ship industry that's in their league that are at least in my view and the man that is a 91 year old or so that connect with it that I think I play bridge with and and and Albuquerque and the marvelous people marvelous company but at whether find a marvelous people and I will find it in the ship industry but marvelous people and marvelous competitive position and everything at brother find it in the United States.
台积电是世界上管理最好、最重要的公司之一，我认为今后五年、十年、二十年也不会有变化。虽然我不喜欢它的所在地，但我重新评估了一下，我的意思是除了在台湾，我不想看到他们在其他地方。尽管他们显然会在这个国家增加船舶产能，我们的其中一个附属公司正在参与他们在亚利桑那州的建设活动，但问题是，我们宁愿拥有同样类型的公司，在船舶业中没有其他公司能与他们相提并论，至少在我的看法中是这样的。有个91岁左右的人与它建立了联系，还跟他一起在阿尔布开基打桥牌，这个公司的人非常棒，但我会在船舶行业中找到同样棒的人。我们会找到同样棒的人和同样棒的竞争地位，以及一切弟兄在美国找到的。
I feel better about the capital that we've got deployed in Japan than in the entire one I wish it weren't so but I think that's a real I love the and I reevaluated that in the light of certain things that we're going on try well my view is it worn out a feel comfortable if you want to put that in the minutes okay station 10.
我对我们在日本投入的资本感到比在整个投资中更好，我希望不是这样，但我认为这是事实。我喜欢这个，并在某些事情的影响下重新评估了这个。我的观点是它很受欢迎，如果你想把它写在会议纪要中，那就可以。第10站。
First of all, thank you for making our lives better my name is Bogomil Baranowski I'm a founding partner of Sika's associates in New York we manage multi-generational family fortunes hence my question.
首先，感谢您让我们的生活变得更好。我叫Bogomil Baranowski，是Sika's Associates在纽约的创始合伙人。我们管理多代家族财富，因此我提出了这个问题。
Mr. Buffett in 1976 in your tribute to Benjamin Graham you wrote Walter Lippmann spoke of men who planned trees that other men will sit under Ben Graham was such a man you're both such people could you share with us your 100 your vision for Berkshire it's a question to you both.
巴菲特先生，1976年在您对本杰明·格雷厄姆的敬意中，您写道沃尔特·利普曼谈到了那些种下树木，让他人坐在下面的人，格雷厄姆就是这样的人。您和格雷厄姆都是这样的人，您能向我们分享您们对伯克希尔的愿景吗？这是对您们两位的问题。
Yeah, I would like to add one thing about Ben Graham Ben Graham did all kinds of things for me I never expected one thing in return I made just you name it and he did it and there wasn't any hidden you know it's like a hint I should say of anything you expect in return and I checked well he wrote a book in 1949 that in a sense said to me in very persuasive terms that what I'd been spending the previous eight or nine years working at and loving was all wrong and that book has been I check it every now and then on Amazon to wear ranks and you know Amazon ranks hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of books by sales and Ben Graham's book has been up there like number three hundred or three fifty or something like that forever and there isn't there isn't any book like I wrote Harper Collins and not the other day because they're bringing out another edition and I have some home they copies have been sold and they said the records can go back far enough but they they had seven point three million copies of this little book that changed my life and continues to outsell every investment book and investment go come along and you know their number four hundred or a thousand or something for a while and then all of a sudden their number twenty-five thousand or a two hundred thousand and this book you know in how many areas can you find any book that has had that sustained position you can't you go back and look at number one at nineteen fifty or number two or number three and you look at in fifty-one and fifty-two they don't continue I mean, they just don't continue cookbooks maybe one or two of them last for a while but there is nothing and this book lives on and everybody keeps bringing out new books and saying a lot of other things but they aren't saying anything it's as important as what he said in nineteen forty-nine in this relatively thin little book.
嗯，我想补充一点关于本·格雷厄姆的事情。本·格雷厄姆为我做了各种各样的事情，我从来没有期望得到任何回报。只要是我提出了要求，他就会去做，没有任何秘密，也没有期待回报的暗示。我检查过了。他在1949年出版了一本书，以非常有说服力的方式告诉我，我之前花了八九年的时间工作和喜欢的事情全部错了，这本书在亚马逊上的排名一直排在前三百或三百五十之内，没有其他书能像他的书一样，持续这么高的排名。我最近向哈珀柯林斯出版公司写信，因为他们要出版另一版书，我留有一些家里的副本。他们说他们的记录不能回溯太久了，但是他们卖出了730万本这本书，这本小书改变了我的人生，继续成为所有投资书籍中销量最高的，其他投资书来来去去，销量来了又去了，有时候排名四百或一千，然后突然就跌到了二万五千或两十万，而这本书，你能在多少领域找到一本持续保持这样的排名的书呢？你找不到。你去看看1950年的排名第一、第二或第三的书在1951年和1952年还排名吗？它们不会持续下去，只有烹饪类书籍可能会持续一段时间，但没有别的书了。而这本书依然生动活泼地存在着，每个人都在出新书，并且说了很多其他的东西，但是它们并没有像他在1949年在这本相对薄薄的书中说的那么重要。
So our vision for Berkshire is exactly what we said today we wanted to be a company that is owned by shareholders and behaves in a way that society is happy that it exists and not unhappy and we will have unlimited capital we'll get lots of talent and we've got a base that can't be beaten and there's no reason why it can't be perpetuated just like Ben's book and it may be an example of other people and and if so we'll be very happy Charlie.
我们对伯克希尔的愿景正是今天所说的，我们想成为一个为股东所拥有、行为举止让社会乐见其存在而非反感的公司，我们将拥有无限的资本、大量的人才以及无法被打败的基础，这一切都可以延续下去，就像本的书一样，也许会成为其他人的榜样，如果是这样，我们会很高兴的，查理。
Yeah, one of the really interesting things about Ben and he was a really gifted teacher a very honorable profession and that is what has lasted however, an interesting fact that he was sheepish about it and his old age was that more than half of all the investment return that Ben and Graham made in his whole life came. from one stock one gross stock Geico purchase a subsidiary and he he at the time he operated there were a lot of sort of lousy companies that were too cheap and you can make a little money floating from one to another but the big money he made was one gross stock buying one under a value of great company is a very good thing his purchase found out again and again and again and and and Ben wrote a post script of the forty nine edition pointing out exactly that fact and acknowledging it but said but also took some good lessons from it you know he said that's the way life is that that you prepare and you you know you don't lose everything along the way and then something comes along and Geico came along because a banker and for it worth it a financial deal Davidson and I think the banker got three quarters of it and I don't mean Leo Davidson Leo good one who founded Geico then called government employees insurance company and you can figure out the acronym and the deal almost fell apart the deals as I remember from maybe a million and a half or something like a million a quarter and it almost fell apart because of a difference of twenty five thousand dollars in the net worth delivered this is a business is you know we're tens of billions I mean but he pointed out the irony in that too I mean it he was honest about it was totally intellectually honest on about us about his the the failings and also the strengths of his approach and the and that to some extent you know Charlie and I have seen that in our lives I mean that sort of the prepared mind the willingness to act when you need to act and the willingness to ignore every salesman in the world and the imperative to ignore him and it's one or two things that make the right decision if you make the right decision on a spouse I mean you won the game they you know and there's enormous important decision and got all the time I mean in the world you got more time now than you said when I was getting to make that decision and and you know I don't know whether a third or whatever percentage blow that when they know it is it is really interesting the thing to do is just keep trying to trying to think things through and not do too many stupid things and sooner or later you have a lot of blows
本和格雷厄姆在投资方面取得了众多成功，他也是一位非常出色的教师，这是一份非常光荣的职业。但是有趣的是，他在老年时有些害羞地承认，他的一半以上的投资回报来自于一只股票——Geico——这是一家子公司。当时，有许多不太好的公司都处于低价状态，可以通过流动资金不断转换来赚一点钱。但他真正赚大钱的方法是购买一只高估值的优秀公司的股票。他一再发现，这可以带来真正的回报。他在第49版后加了一段发言指出了这个事实，并承认了这一点，但同时也从中汲取了一些教训。他说这就是生活，你要做好准备并在前进的道路中少犯错误，然后机会就会降临，就像Geico的机会一样。这笔交易几乎因净资产的差异而破裂，这是一个有趣的反讽。本非常诚实地承认了自己的成功和失败的原因，以及他的投资方法的优缺点。我们也在自己的人生中看到了这种方法的成果，即准备好独立思考并在必要时采取行动，忽略所有推销员的建议并做出正确决定。如果你选择了正确的伴侣，那么你就赢了。这是一个重要的决定，但你有足够的时间去做出决定。最重要的是，不要犯太多愚蠢的错误，而努力思考问题并不断尝试，迟早你会有成功的时刻。
I was sure I would say okay Becky right this question comes from to rafter a shareholder in Sierra Vista Arizona who is asking a question of a G once to know about electric vehicles getting insurance from the manufacturer instead of car insurance companies a recent article in the Wall Street Journal shows that though EVs are small but growing percentage of sales Tesla and GM are offering their own electric vehicle insurance what will Geico do to combat this?
我确信我会说好的，贝基，这个问题来自亚利桑那州Sierra Vista的一位股东向G公司提问，想知道电动汽车是否可以从制造商那里获得保险，而不是汽车保险公司。华尔街日报的最近一篇文章表明，尽管电动汽车在销售中所占比例很小，但特斯拉和通用汽车正在提供自己的电动汽车保险。 Geico将如何应对这一挑战？
Yeah so Geico is talking to a number of original equipment manufacturers as well to try and see how best they can work with the auto manufacturer and offer insurance at the point of sale there haven't been very many success stories yet so we'll wait and see you know clearly it is a very convenient way to sell auto insurance at the point of sale but there's a fair amount of data that needs to be collected on the driver not just the car and that makes it a little more complicated so we are talking to some auto manufacturers ourselves we are hopeful to that we will strike a deal with some of them before not too long Tesla has made and GM they both have talked a lot in the press in terms of getting into the insurance business and in fact GM I think has projected they'll write three billion dollars of premium which you know it's hard to imagine where it will come from but they're all hard to try I think somebody will find the secret sauce before not too long and we ourselves are in that race.
嗯，Geico正在与一些原始设备制造商进行谈话，以试图找出如何最好地与汽车制造商合作，在销售点提供保险。目前还没有很多成功的案例，所以我们就等着看吧。显然，在销售点销售汽车保险是非常便利的方式，但需要收集有关驾驶员和车辆的大量数据，这使得它变得更加复杂。因此，我们正在与一些汽车制造商进行谈话，希望我们能在不久的将来与其中一些达成协议。特斯拉和通用汽车都在媒体上频频谈论涉足保险业务的计划，事实上，通用汽车预计将销售三十亿美元的保费，这有点难以想象从哪里得来，但他们都在尝试。我认为在不久的将来，有人会找到秘密配方，我们自己也在竞争中。
I would point out that General Motors insurance for decades and I mean this is not a new idea and Uber no longer insurance for while they laid it off with somebody and that company got killed by it but I don't know the deal between Uber and forget the name of the company that took it on it's cheap we probably know but James River. There's nothing it is not it's not a new idea it's not magic in the lease I mean it is hard to come up with something that is better at misking max and matching risk to reward risk risk I'm sorry risk to price then then a bunch of very smart people are doing it a progressive and a bunch of smart people are doing it so great we're standing at Geico and I mean it is it just it was fascinating to me when Uber won into it you know and they were going to get their head handed to them but they laid it off a good bit of it very substantial percentage of it was somebody else who got their head handed to it and it was a story you know the Wall Street loves it we've got 80 car dealerships that do a lot of business and you know we've got the people buying the car and the place and we form an insurance company around the road for some reason that writes insured it's hard to improve on the present system I have no I wouldn't pay a penny I'd pay to avoid it actually I mean and go ahead of you yeah the only point I'd like to add is the margins on writing auto insurance are 4% which is a very small number and once there are more people that are trying to take a bite of the apple it just becomes very very difficult to keep all the mouths fed in a profitable manner.
我想指出的是，通用汽车的保险已经有了几十年的历史了，我指的并不是一个新思路，而Uber不再提供保险，他们把它交给了另外一家公司，结果那家公司因此倒闭了。但我不知道Uber和那家接手保险的公司之间的交易，可能我们知道，但一家叫James River的公司。这并不是一个新思路，也不是一个神奇的方法，我指的是采用最大限度与风险匹配的成本，来设计一个更好的方案是很困难的，除非一群非常聪明的人，像Progressive这样的公司，这是一个很好的例子。当Uber进入这个市场时，这对我来说非常有趣，因为他们可能会吃大亏，但他们把它转嫁给了其他公司，这在很大程度上解决了问题。这是一个故事，华尔街非常喜欢。我们有80个汽车经销商，他们做很多生意，我们有人购买汽车的地方，我们围绕着道路形成了一个保险公司，我的意思是，很难改进目前的系统。我不会花一分钱购买它，实际上，我会为了避免它而支付。唯一我想补充的是，汽车保险的利润率只有4％，这是一个非常小的数字，一旦有更多人想要分一杯羹，就会变得非常非常困难，无法以盈利的方式满足所有需求。
Yeah you can say that there was one big new idea in insurance and proper in car insurance back in 1920 or so when state farm started and state farm and still has it next to Berkshire it's it's the leader in having net worth it's a mutual company but some guy just figured that there was a car tell running car insurance and he farmer from earners the name of the book I think and over Illinois and he created a system where you really took 20 points or so out of the business and surprise surprise areas you know and nobody's own stock and state farm it's it's an insult to capitalism actually everything you learn at the business school says it shouldn't work because nobody owns it nobody's going public with it no nothing but it's got more net worth it's almost probably double leaving Berkshire the picture it's probably doubled the next guy and nobody's really improved on their system that much so it's it's fascinating how people don't really look at the essence you know these are cases that should carry a message but the truth is in Wall Street anything gets the test is what you can sell it or not if you can sell it it'll get sold and a bunch of insurance companies came along got a soul and this is this can be a story about this stock or that stock and it sounded good when they talked about it over for a while it is it is really interesting the investing public does not learn much.
你可以说，1920年左右，州农保险和车险在保险业和汽车保险方面出现了一个大的新想法，州农保险至今仍然拥有它，仅次于伯克希尔，它在拥有净值方面是领先者。这是一家相互保险公司，但有个人想到了一个叫做《耕者有其车》的书中的汽车保险理念。他来自伊利诺伊州的一个农民，创建了一个系统，真正减少了该业务的20个点，令人惊讶，没有人拥有它的股票，也不上市，但它的净值甚至可能是伯克希尔的两倍，是下一位的净值倍数，没有人真正改进了他们的系统，这是人们不太注意的本质，这些案例应该带有一定的信息，但在华尔街，任何东西都会被测试是否可以卖出，如果可以，它就会被售出，就像一个股票的故事，听起来不错，但人们并没有学到很多。
Okay station eleven hi my name is Jeff Merriam I'm from E. Dynaminisoda we’ve been coming for years to make that professor from the earlier question really nervous how far families wealth is in Berkshire hathaway my question has to go with voting control in the future there was a question earlier about corporate radar I was more wondering about who is actually going to own the voting control is it going to be institutions calpers black rock are they eventually going to get their way with the ESG check boxes that we're going to have to check and what should we be thinking about that well you're thinking very well and the interesting thing is the big aggregations look like of course they'd be an index funds but what index funds want is they want a world in which society doesn't get upset with them about the fact I've got all the voting power and then I was saying the last year or two it's looked like a better idea for them not quite together what was the praise the Charlie who's open but they backed off a lot yeah they backed off a lot and it's an interesting to back out off and interesting interestingly enough and looking at money management you know the game is not performance its assets under management and index funds produce a tiny tiny tiny fee on assets under management because it was pioneered by Vanguard and and it's when it became successful it was very easy to replicate not so easy but I mean it was in that little bit be copied but it came with a management fee of two basis points so what people that have offered index funds would really like is it to buy their other funds or let a management money in some other way so that they get a higher higher fee on assets under management which of course is exactly why the index fund was invented in the first place but so it's gotten it's not lost leader but it is a way to pull money and then you hope that people ignore what was said by by what's the name that you know John Bogle Jack Bogle ignore him and essentially they give up the idea and that will offer you a fund that does this in India and will offer you another fund that does that and of course those management fees are higher so they're really counter selling the idea the John Bogle came along with but in the process they have achieved a lot of votes and that was fun for a while but the last thing the world that I do is that Washington with the American public decide that they're going around their way too much so they're sending the back off now if you figure out where their self interest is you can judge where their behavior is going to go. Charlie yeah you want to defend them? No you can swear he just said you're totally right and everything well in that case I won't ask anybody else okay Becky.
嗨，电台第11站，我叫杰夫·梅里亚姆，来自E. Dynaminisoda，我们已经多年来参加，让早先提出问题的教授感到很紧张，关于伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司家庭财富的问题，我的问题与未来的投票控制有关。之前有人提问了公司雷达的问题，我更加想知道的是实际上会拥有投票控制权的是机构，如calpers黑石公司。他们最终是否将按照ESG检查框的规定行事，这是我们应该思考的问题。你的思考非常好，有趣的是大型资产汇集看起来像是指数基金，但指数基金想要的是一个社会不会对他们拥有所有投票权感到不安的世界。在过去一两年中，它看起来像是一个更好的想法，让他们不完全满足于查理的称赞，但他们已大大减少了这种行为。有趣的是，从资金管理的角度来看，游戏不在于绩效，而在于管理的资产，而指数基金产生微小的资产管理费用，因为它是由先锋公司开创的。当它取得成功时，它非常容易被复制，虽然并不容易，但它在该小部分中被复制了。但它带来了2个基点的管理费用，所以那些提供指数基金的人们真正想要的是购买他们的其他基金或以其他方式管理资金，以便他们能够获得更高的资产管理费用。当然，这正是指数基金首先被发明的原因，但是他们已经获得了很多投票权，这在一段时间内很有趣，但我最不想看到的是，美国公众认为他们在某种程度上走得太远，因此他们现在正在撤退。如果你能确定他们自身的利益在哪里，你就可以判断他们的行为将会走向何方。查理，你想为他们辩护吗？不用了，你完全正确。在这种情况下，我就不会再问其他人了。好的，贝基。
All right this question comes from Almou Grinnell and it's about this is for Warren Ann Greg since 2019 Berkshire repurchased huge amounts of stock about approximately reducing 10% of the share count and increasing the intrinsic value per share for the continuing shareholders. Greg is expected to be the successor of Warren as CEO so will he be in charge of the main capital allocation decisions including future share buybacks. Greg has been key in the development of Berkshire Hathaway energy and I think a good capital allocator does he has he been involved in the share repurchases that have been executed over the past years and do you both Warren and Greg work together in the estimation of Berkshire's intrinsic value and the share buyback decisions?
好的，这个问题是来自Almou Grinnell，关于自2019年以来伯克希尔公司回购了大量股票，大约降低了10％的股份计数，并增加了持续股东的内在价值每股股份。 Greg被预期成为沃伦的继任者担任CEO，因此他是否负责主要的资本配置决策，包括未来的股票回购？Greg是伯克希尔哈撒韦能源发展的关键人物，我认为他是一个好的资本配置者，他是否参与了过去几年执行的股票回购，并且您沃伦和Greg是否一起估算伯克希尔的内在价值和股票回购决策？
Well the answer is that Greg I'm going to turn it over to him but the answer is Greg understands capital allocation as well as I do and that's looking for us and he will make those decisions I think very much in the same framework as I would make them and we've laid out that framework now for 30 years or something like that. People make a way more complicated than I mean particularly if you're working out a doctorate or something it's just a great subject to have lots of footnotes and you know 50 pages or bigger but it is it's no more complicated than if you and I and Charlie had a business and you want to sell your interest and we could buy it for less than we thought it was worth and without misleading you in any way about what was going on and we'd buy it but Greg you're on because you're going to be doing it in the future right?
答案是，我要交给Greg。Greg和我一样理解资本配置，这对我们很重要，他将会根据我所制定的框架来做出决策。我们已经有了这个框架30年左右了。人们把它想得比较复杂，特别是如果你在做博士或者其他学术研究，可能需要大篇幅的注脚和50页以上的论文。但其实它并不比我们开一家商店，你想卖出你的股份，如果我们认为价格低于价值，我们会毫不欺骗地买入。但现在，让Greg来承担这个重任吧，因为他将来会接替我。
Yeah well I think Warren you said it really well I mean the framework has been laid out we know how you approach it and how you and Charlie have approached it and really don't see that framework changing when the opportunity presents itself will want to be an active repurchaser of Berkshire shares we think it's a great outcome for Berkshire shareholders don't a larger piece of each of our operating businesses and the portfolio of the equity companies when the opportunity presents itself you can be the dumbest thing you can do or it can be the smartest thing you can do and to make it more complicated than that and start getting into all this but you obviously do what the business needs to do first the opportunities are there grow your present business buy additional business whatever it may be and then then you make a decision on dividends but that decision becomes pretty irrevocable because you don't cut dividends and without having major effects in your shareholder base and a lot of things and then a few got ample capital and you don't see that you're going to use it all and your stock is attractive and enhances the intrinsic value for the remaining shareholders it's an old brainer and if it's above the price of intrinsic value it's an old brainer that you don't even listen to anybody know my what investment banker comes in and tells you here's how to do a repurchase program
嗯，沃伦，我认为你说得非常好，我是指框架已经制定好了，我们知道你如何处理它以及你和查理是如何处理的。当机会出现时，我们希望成为伯克希尔的积极回购者，我们认为这对伯克希尔股东来说是一个很好的结果。当机会出现时，我们将想要拥有更多我们现有的业务以及组合公司的股份。这可能是你所做的最愚蠢的事情，也可能是你所做的最聪明的事情。不要把事情变得比这复杂，你首先要做的是让业务做自己该做的事情。机会在那里，成长你目前的业务，购买额外的业务，无论是什么，然后再对股利做出决定。但这个决定变得非常难以改变，因为你不能削减股利，否则会对你的股东群体产生重大影响。如果你有充足的资本，并且你不认为你会用完它，并且你的股票被看作是有吸引力的，并且增强了剩余股东的内在价值，那么这是一个很明显的选择。如果它高于内在价值的价格，那么就是一个没有头脑的选择，你甚至不需要倾听任何投资银行家告诉你如何进行回购计划。
okay station one I'm Tom Nelson a podcaster from North Oaks Minnesota Charlie in 2022 you use phrases like really massively stupid massive kind of arguments and crazy to describe what you said was the 30% of Americans hesitant to submit themselves to untested mRNA COVID gene therapy do you stand behind those quotes today yeah sure well we got time for one more than before lunch Becky okay
好的，第一站，我是来自明尼苏达州北橡树的播客汤姆·纳尔逊。查理，在2022年，你使用了“真的非常愚蠢”、“巨大的争论”和“疯狂”的词语，来描述那些不愿意接受未经测试的mRNA COVID基因疗法的美国人所说的30%。你今天还支持这些评论吗？是的，当然。在我们午餐前还有时间再问一个问题，贝基。
I was out let's see how about I see I'm going to be a hob on lunch pretty soon but no okay I'm going for you this one comes from Drew Estes this is a question for Warren in your 1969 letter to partners you said in any company where the founder and chief driving force behind the enterprise is still active it's still very difficult to evaluate second men the only real way to see how someone is going to do when when running a company is to let them run it this wise statement now applies to Berkshire once the second man are running Berkshire what would you advise owners of Berkshire to watch for specifically what actions if taken should give us concern
我出门一下，看看接下来怎么样，我很快就要吃午餐了，但好吧，现在我是为了你去做这个。这是Drew Estes提出的一个问题，是关于你在1969年致合伙人的信中所说的。你说，在创始人和企业的主要推动力仍然活跃的任何公司中，评估第二人的困难程度仍然非常高。唯一真正了解一个人在经营公司时会做什么的方法是让他们去做。这个明智的声明现在适用于Berkshire，一旦第二个人运营Berkshire，你会建议Berkshire的所有者特别关注哪些行动？如果采取了哪些行动，应该引起我们的关注？
Well, I think I would do I would have some comfort in the fact that 99% of my net worth is in that company so I probably got a stronger interest and perhaps a hundred billion or more philanthropy will be affected by it. But I would say that I don't have a second choice. I mean, it is that tough to find but I've also seen Greg in action that I feel 100% comfortable and like I say, I don't know something happened to Greg I would tell the directors.
我认为如果我的99%净资产都在这家公司里，我会感到有些安慰，因为我的利益更为强烈，或许会影响到一百亿或更多的慈善事业。但我不会说我有第二选择。这要找到才难。我也见过格雷格的行动，所以我百分之百地放心，如果格雷格出了什么事，我会告诉董事们。
You know, they have a problem, and they won't. I don't have anybody to name, and if they put somebody in, Berkshire on automatic pilot can work extremely well for a long time. I mean, it doesn't like the businesses go away or anything sort, and you can't. It's hard to judge successor management in a really good business because if they don't show up at the office, it'll keep working for a long time, and maybe that like a bent useful input may show itself in five years and it make a long, long, long time.
你知道，他们有一个问题，但他们不愿意解决。我没有任何人可以指名，如果他们任命某人来接任，伯克希尔可以自动驾驶地运转很长时间。我的意思是，这些企业不会突然消失或被削弱，而且这很难判断继任管理人是否比前任更好，因为即使他们不在办公室，这些企业仍会长期维持运行。也许五年后会发现一些有用的意见，但这可能要等很长很长时间。
And how are the shareholders advised by a bunch of people that are concerned about whether you're meeting earnings projections or something telling them whether the management is any good. You know, it is very, very hard. It's very hard. I've been on the board of 20 companies, it's very hard to you guys, me to rank the management of each one.
股东怎么可能听从那些只关心公司是否达到盈利预期的人建议，而这些人并不能告诉他们公司的管理是否良好呢？你们知道的，这真的非常非常困难。我曾经在20家公司担任董事，对你们和我来说，评估每家公司的管理层都是非常困难的。
It's very difficult to do because some are just better businesses and others, some would be better off not manage hardly at all, others really need to help but they got a lousy business. And Tom Murphy told me a long, long, long time ago, he said the secret of businesses to buy good business, and it's okay to inherit one too and Greg is inheriting a good business and I think I'll make it better.
这是非常困难的问题，因为有些公司非常出色，有些则根本不应该被管理，有些则需要大大地帮助，但是它们的业务非常糟糕。汤姆·墨菲很久很久以前告诉我，购买好的公司是经营业务的秘诀，而继承好公司也是可以的，格雷格正在继承一家好公司，我相信我会让它变得更好。
But I don't think it's easy to put any one of the next 10 nominees in and try and judge three years later whether they've done a good job or not so it's gonna be that that'll be a very interesting job for the board, but it shouldn't listen to Wall Street on it. They've got the job. If they put somebody in there's surprised, we both go down on the plane that was somebody in, they've got a real job in assessing that person because it'll depend on how good he or she is a talker, it'll depend on, you know, them courting Wall Street to be supportive of all kinds of things, and we've got some very good people on the board, but they would be challenged in that position as would I where I've been in that position then other companies were a very great leader has left and on the way back from the funeral you know nobody knows what to do exactly.
但我认为很难选择接下来的十位提名人之一，再过三年后判断他们是否做得好，所以对于董事会来说，这将是一项非常有趣的任务，但他们不应该听取华尔街的建议。这是他们的工作。如果他们选择了一个出人意料的人，我们俩都会在同一架飞机上降落，那么他们评估那个人的工作就真的很难了，因为这取决于那个人说话的能力有多强，他们是否会争取华尔街的支持等等，我们的董事会有一些非常优秀的人，但他们在这个位置上会面临挑战，就像我曾经所处的位置，其他公司的一位伟大的领袖已经离开，回来参加他的葬礼时没有人知道该怎么做。
So with that jury message, we will go to lunch and we will come back, we'll see it one o'clock. Thank you, and we're sure gonna try and get 60 questions and we've done 25 so fun 20. Yeah, 25, so keep the question short and try to give the answer short. Thanks.
那么，就以陪审团的信息为准，我们将去吃午饭，然后回来，在一点钟再看。谢谢，我们一定会尽力做出60个问题，我们已经做了25个，还差20个。所以，请您尽可能把问题说得简短，并尝试用简短的答复回答。谢谢。