Tesla Shareholder Meeting in 18 Minutes (Supercut)
发布时间 2023-05-17 00:31:35 来源
Well, we've got a lot of great news to talk about today. The Tesla team has done an incredible job of executing over the past year, and we have many exciting years ahead of us.
今天我们有许多好消息要宣布。特斯拉团队在过去的一年中表现出色，已经取得了巨大的成果，未来还有更多令人兴奋的成就等着我们。
Tesla Master Plan, part three, which admittedly was quite technical. We wanted to go into a lot of technical depth. So, you know, it was clear that what we were saying was not just, we're not merely assertions, but that they were backed up with physics and with real data, that it's realistic.
特斯拉三部曲的第三部分确实非常技术密集。我们想要深入探讨很多技术细节。因此，我们明确表示我们所说的不仅仅是断言，而是受到物理和真实数据支持，这是现实可行的。
And with the Master Plan, part three, we wanted to basically, the goal is to give people hope, realistic hope, and maybe hope's even the wrong word. But simply to say that there is a path to a fully sustainable global economy, that we are on that path, that we are accelerating that path, and that so long as we don't get complacent about it, it will happen.
在《总体规划 第三部分》中，我们的目标基本上是给人们带来希望，现实的希望，或者说希望可能是一个不恰当的词。但是，我们想要表达的是，存在一条通向完全可持续的全球经济的道路，我们正在走在这条道路上，我们正在加速这条道路的前进，并且只要我们不变得自鸣得意，这个目标就会实现。
So, I'll just, I'll kind of rush through a recap of the Master Plan, part three, but some of the salient points are that it will actually take less energy to go sustainable, not more energy. It's actually more, and some of these things may sound very obvious, but it's more energy efficient to go sustainable, not less. And there's less mining that is required for sustainable energy economy, not more. Also very important.
那么，我将简要回顾一下第三部分的总体规划，但其中一些重要的观点是：采用可持续发展的方式实际上需要的能源更少，而不是更多。采用可持续发展方式更加节能高效，而不是反之。可持续能源经济所需的采矿量更少，而不是更多。这也非常重要。
I mean, I don't want to go off an attention too much on that front, but it's very important to appreciate that most of our battery packs are iron based, the majority of our battery packs are iron based, not cobalt. And in our other battery packs are nickel based, not cobalt. The nickel batteries use a little bit of cobalt as a binder, but only a tiny amount. In contrast, your phones all use 100% cobalt. But even for the small amount of cobalt that we do use, we will make sure six-waces Sunday that no child labor is being exploited.
我的意思是，我不想在这个方面引起过多的关注，但很重要的是要认识到，我们大部分的电池组都是基于铁的，大部分的电池组都是基于铁的，而不是钴。我们的其他电池组都是基于镍的，而不是钴。镍电池使用少量钴作为粘合剂，但只有极少量。相比之下，你们的手机全部使用100%的钴。但即使对于我们使用的少量钴，我们也会确保严格遵守没有利用童工的六次星期天原则。
Obviously, we are a company that cares a lot about doing the right thing, and we don't want to loot ourselves or to loot anyone else.
显然，我们是一家非常注重做正确事情的公司，我们不想掠夺自己或掠夺任何其他人。
So, yeah, come. Actually, in a nutshell, the way to think about sustainability is the faster we can make battery packs, the faster we can move to a sustainable energy economy. That's the fundamental limiting factor. When you look at the emissions over time, electric vehicles absolutely win by a long shot. And as we're seeing the cost and the emissions required to produce an electric vehicle are dropping rapidly over time.
所以，来吧。实际上，想要理解可持续性的本质，就要明白我们能快速制造电池组的速度有多快，以此来加速可持续能源的发展。这是根本的限制因素。从时间的角度来看，电动汽车绝对是赢家。而且，随着时间的推移，制造电动汽车所需的成本和排放已经在快速下降。
And once again, the top two most desired companies for engineers on Earth were SpaceX and Tesla. We're also excited to announce an X-Gen drive unit, which is a big reduction in silicon carbide, it's half the factory space. Notably, there are zero rare earth elements required.
再次，世界上工程师最渴望的前两个公司分别是SpaceX和特斯拉。我们也很高兴地宣布了一款X-Gen驱动装置，它是硅碳化物的大幅减少，只有工厂空间的一半。值得注意的是，不需要任何稀土元素。
So for the first time in, I think over a hundred years, we're actually going to change for 12-volt voltage of, you know, outside of the drivetrain to a 48-volt architecture. And to first approximation, that means we need only about a quarter as much copper in the car as would be needed for a 12-volt battery. So that's a big deal. Because people often worry about, you know, is there enough copper? Yes, there is.
我认为这是100多年来第一次改变车辆非驱动装置的12伏电压到48伏架构。这意味着我们只需要约四分之一的车里铜量来满足电池需求，这是一个非常重要的事情。因为人们经常担心是否有足够多铜，而事实上我们是有足够多的。
And FSD beta is growing hyper-exponentially. So that chart is going to look like a wall, basically. There's really just one last piece of the system that needs to be a neural net, which is the planning and control function. And so we expect to have that last piece become neural net, so it'll be end to end from video into control out as a neural net.
FSD beta正以超指数的速度增长。因此，那张图表基本上将会像一堵墙。实际上，整个系统中只有一个最后的部分需要成为神经网络，那就是计划和控制功能。因此，我们期望该最后一部分会成为神经网络，这样视频进入控制输出就能形成端到端的神经网络。
I think the thing to appreciate is it's not that full self-driving will be as good as a person. It will be much, much better, like a lot. Over time, 10 times safer than a person. So I'm even going to be a contest, frankly.
我认为需要认识到的是，全自动驾驶不仅仅将与人类司机相媲美，而是会明显地更加优秀，远远超过人类的水平。随着时间的流逝，安全性甚至会是人类司机的 10 倍。所以说，说实话，我认为这将成为一个竞赛。
And I think some people realize that I think you guys probably realize it, but being able to do a software update and have several million cars suddenly go from manual driving to autonomous, I think will be the single biggest asset value increase in history. I'm actually surprised that so few people realize this, or maybe they just don't believe it's real, but it is. So this is really an insanely big deal.
我认为有些人意识到了，你们可能也有意识到，但能够进行软件更新，让几百万辆汽车从手动驾驶变为自主驾驶，这将是历史上单个资产价值增长最大的时刻。我其实很惊讶只有很少人意识到这一点，或者可能他们不相信这是真实的，但它是真实存在的。所以这真的是一个非常重要的大事件。
We're also the largest EV maker in the world. And while at the same time being the highest margin of any car maker in the world. Now, making electric vehicles profitably is hard as illustrated by the difficulty of our competitors. A number of our competitors are making EVs at a significant loss. But we are not. We are actually making EVs profitably and almost no one else is.
我们也是全球最大的电动车制造商。同时，我们也是全球利润率最高的汽车制造商。然而，制造盈利电动汽车很难，正如我们的竞争对手所面临的困难一样。许多竞争对手正在以巨大的亏损制造电动汽车。但我们不是，我们实际上正在盈利地制造电动汽车，几乎没有其他公司能做到。
And as you can see, our free cash per year has been increasing steadily. So I want to make sure that this is not just the good news parade. It's important to understand that no company is immune to the macroeconomic environment. But that said, it won't be darkness forever. I expect probably a year of difficulty globally for everyone. And then my best guess is that the global economy turns around in roughly 12 months. And then Tesla will be in an extremely good position.
正如您所看到的，我们每年的自由现金流不断增长。因此，我想确保这不仅仅是好消息的大游行。重要的是要了解，没有哪家公司能够免于宏观经济环境的影响。但是话说回来，这种黑暗不会永远持续。我估计可能会有全球范围内每个人都经历一年的困难时期，然后我最乐观的猜测是大约12个月后全球经济将会好转，届时特斯拉将处于一个极好的位置。
So anyone who is a long-term investor, I think will do extremely well. And here I want to give a big shout out to the Tesla internal software team. This is all internally written Tesla software. I think there's almost no companies in the world can do this because they do not have a very talented internal software team. So they are generally reliant on third party enterprise resource planning software. So Tesla is not.
任何长期投资者都将获得极大的回报。在此，我要大声表扬特斯拉公司内部软件团队。这是特斯拉自主研发的软件。我认为几乎没有其他公司能做到这一点，因为它们没有拥有如此过硬的内部软件团队。它们通常依赖于第三方企业资源规划软件，而特斯拉则不然。
This is a hidden strength of the company that often doesn't get a lot of attention but is incredibly powerful. So once again, I'd like to thank them for their work. And as predicted, we are highly confident that Model Y will be the number one best selling car on Earth this year.
这是该公司的一个隐藏的优势，经常没有得到太多关注，但是非常强大。因此，我再次要感谢他们的工作。正如预测的那样，我们非常有信心，Model Y将成为今年地球上最畅销的汽车。
So cars are actually the safest cars in the world. We put immense effort into vehicle safety. And we keep updating the safety. So we keep improving the automatic emergency braking system just with the software update. While lots of cars will say they've got like five stars or whatever, there's new ones to that. When we did the European NCAP sort of active safety tests, we got the highest scores that they've ever seen.
汽车是世界上最安全的车辆。我们非常注重车辆安全，并不断更新安全措施。我们还通过软件更新来不断改进自动紧急制动系统。虽然许多车型宣称拥有五颗星或其他等级，但我们的品牌更胜一筹。在欧洲NCAP进行主动安全测试时，我们获得了他们所见过的最高分。
And then it's worth noting things like the total cost of ownership of Model 3 is now comparable to that of Toyota Corolla. Going to Megapack, because this is a stationary storage is an important part of solving the sustainable energy problem. And the Tesla Megapack is now more competitive than a natural gas-peaker plant. So we have very strong demand for the Tesla Megapack.
值得注意的是，Model 3的总拥有成本现在与丰田Corolla相当。前往Megapack，因为这是静止的储能，是解决可持续能源问题的重要组成部分。而且，特斯拉Megapack现在比天然气冷备用电厂更具竞争力。因此，我们对特斯拉Megapack有非常强烈的需求。
And we're going to make a lot of them. And while back I predicted that the Tesla stationary battery pack business would actually grow faster than the automotive side of things. And that's exactly what has happened. You can see it's an exponential curve growing in a rate that is even faster than our vehicle sales. We're expanding Gigafactory Nevada for the Tesla semi-production line and for the 4680 in-house sell production. So this is sort of, we're aiming for 40 gigawatt hours a year both in California and in China. But I think long term, this will be much, much greater than this. I wouldn't be surprised if long term, the stationary battery pack activity went well in excess of 500 gigawatt hours per year.
我们将生产大量的电池，而且我曾预测，特斯拉储能电池业务的增长速度实际上将比汽车业务更快。事实正是如此。你可以看到，这是一个指数曲线，增长速度甚至快于我们的车辆销售。我们正在扩大内华达州的超级工厂，用于特斯拉半挂车的生产线和4680自主生产。因此，我们的目标是在加利福尼亚州和中国生产40吉瓦时的电池组件。但我认为长远来看，这将远远超过这个数字。我不会感到惊讶，长远来看，储能电池组件的产量将超过500吉瓦时。
So the demand is like quasi infinite here. As we look ahead to tackle what we see as the choke points in the supply chain, one of them is lithium refining. It's not that we wish to take on extra problems, but since nobody else was doing it, we felt we had to do this. And so we've just broken ground on lithium refinery and co-pressed Christie, which will be more lithium refining than I think probably everything outside of China. And we've signed a deal for an ex-Gigafactory and Mexico, Gigafactory. I think that's going to be a fantastic factory.
这里的需求几乎是无限的，因此我们正在寻求解决供应链中的瓶颈，其中之一是锂精炼。虽然我们不希望增加额外的问题，但由于没有其他人在做这件事，我们觉得必须这么做。因此，我们刚刚开始建立锂精炼厂和共压Christie项目，这将是除了中国以外的所有地方中最大的锂精炼设施。我们已经签署了在墨西哥的一家前特斯拉超级工厂的协议，我认为那将是一家非常棒的工厂。
So we're laying the groundwork for ultimately getting to 20 million vehicles a year. So Savitruck is a hard car to make. Because it's a such a radically new design, you can't just use conventional methods of manufacturing. We had to invent a whole new set of manufacturing techniques in order to build an exoskeleton based car instead of an endoskeleton based car. So it's extremely non-trivial to build the Savitruck. But we're making good progress on that.
因此，我们正在为最终达到每年2000万辆车的目标奠定基础。Savitruck是一辆难以制造的汽车，因为它是一种根本性的新设计，不能仅仅使用常规的制造方法。我们不得不发明一整套新的制造技术，以建造一个基于外骨骼而不是内骨骼的汽车。因此，建造Savitruck非常不容易，但我们正在取得良好的进展。
So yes. That's the thing when I, in the factory, I too, the Savitruck line see how we're doing there. And sorry for the lab, but we're finally going to start delivering production, Savitrucks later this year. And I think the product, if anything, is better than expectations. So, and you know, people always want to know what our next product is. But this is not the time to. We obviously need to have a proper dedicated product launch.
没错，当我在工厂的Savitruck生产线上看到我们的生产进展时，我也感到很高兴。对于实验室的事情，非常抱歉，但我们终于要开始交付Savitruck卡车的生产了，预计将在今年晚些时候。我认为这个产品比预期的要好，你知道，人们总是想知道我们的下一个产品是什么。但现在不是时候，我们显然需要一个适当的专门的产品发布会。
So I just want to emphasize that we are actually building a new product. We are actually designing a new product. We're not sitting on our hands here. So there are two new products that I think you will be very excited about. And both the design of the products and the manufacturing techniques are head and shoulders above anything else that is present in industry. If I were to guess, I would say of these two new products. Just these two new products alone, I would say this will probably make. This is just Elon's guess. So, you know, don't sue me. But, you know, Elon's guess is that we'll probably make inaccessible, and we'll just have five million units a year of these two models combined.
我想强调一下，我们正建造一款全新的产品，设计一款全新的产品，我们不是坐以待毙。我们有两款全新的产品，我认为你们会非常兴奋。这两款产品的设计和制造技术比行业中其他任何产品都要先进。如果我猜的话，光是这两款新产品，我估计我们每年可能会生产五百万个，但这只是我的猜测，所以不要起诉我。
These are all real, by the way. The thing, perhaps most notable is if you look at the difference between the last two models, and this is a video that was taken basically yesterday, and the Optimus team was up all night making this video. The Optimus team has done an incredible job. The motors, the controllers, the electronics, and everything you see in the Optimus robot is a test that is designed a system.
顺便提一下，这都是真实的。也许最值得注意的是，如果你看一下最后两个模型之间的差别，这是一个基本上昨天拍摄的视频，而 Optimus 团队整晚都在制作这个视频。Optimus 团队做得非常棒。Optimus 机器人中的电机、控制器、电子设备以及您所看到的一切都是设计系统的测试。
So this is. We actually tried to find actuators and whatnot that were off the shelf. We found that there weren't any in order to make an effective humanoid robot. You actually have to design the motors and gearboxes and the electronics from scratch, because it's a very different application from anything else that exists. So we took our world-class motor and power electronics team, and said, okay, we need to design several actuators that don't exist in the world, and they did.
因此，我们在寻找现成的执行器和其他零部件时实际上遇到了一些困难。我们发现，在制造有效的仿人机器人时，没有现成的部件可用。事实上，您需要从零开始设计电机、齿轮箱和电子元件，因为这是与现有任何东西都非常不同的应用。因此，我们请我们世界一流的电机和电力电子团队，要求他们设计出一些当前世界上没有的执行器，并且他们成功地完成了任务。
Optimus is working quite well, and then for full self-driving, as full self-driving gets closer and closer to generalized real-world AI, that same software is transferable to a humanoid robot. Just like humans can obviously walk around with their arms and legs, but we can drive a car, fly a plane, steer a boat, ride a horse. If you have a generalized real-world AI, which is what we are developing for full self-driving, it can be transferred to basically anything.
Optimus目前表现不错，而随着完全自动驾驶技术越来越接近于普适的真实世界人工智能，这个相同的软件可以用于人形机器人。就像人类显然可以用他们的手臂和腿四处走动一样，但是我们能够驾驶汽车、飞机、掌舵船只、骑马。如果你有一个普适的真实世界人工智能，正是我们正在为完全自动驾驶开发的，它可以被转移到基本上任何东西上。
Optimus will use the same FSE computer as the car. The optimist stuff is extremely underrated, because people cannot comprehend the consequences. Now obviously we need to make sure that we don't have a Terminator scenario, that's very important. It's all fun and games until Terminator shows up.
Optimus会使用与汽车相同的FSE计算机。乐观主义的东西非常被低估，因为人们无法理解其后果。现在很明显我们需要确保不会出现终结者情景，这非常重要。这一切只是娱乐，直到终结者出现。
If you say like, if you have had a generalized humanoid robot, what would be the effective ratio of humanoid robots to humans? I think basically everyone would want one, and maybe people would want more than one, which means the actual demand for something like Optimus, if it really works, which will, is 10 billion units. It's some crazy number. It might be 20 billion units.
如果你说，假如你拥有一台普遍的人形机器人，那么人形机器人与人类的有效比率会是多少呢？我觉得基本上每个人都会想要一个，而且可能会想要更多，这意味着像Optimus这样的东西的实际需求，如果真正发挥作用，那将达到100亿台。这个数字有点疯狂，也许会达到200亿台。
If the ratio is say 2 to 1 on people, humanoid robots with people, it might actually be, it's some very big number, is what I'm saying. And a number vastly in excess of the number of cars. So my prediction is that Tesla's long-term value will be a majority of long-term value will be Optimus. And that prediction I'm very confident of.
如果考虑人类与类人机器人的比例是2比1，那么实际上这个数字可能会非常大，甚至会远远超过汽车数量。因此，我的预测是，特斯拉的长期价值将主要体现在类人机器人方面。这个预测我非常有信心。
So, that's it. So.
所以，就是这样。嗯。