Will Germany's car industry survive? | DW Documentary
发布时间 2019-09-03 18:00:11 来源
Imagine a country that takes its climate protection goals seriously. That became rich on oil, yet still aims to ban cars that run on fossil fuels in just six years' time. That country exists. Norwegians aren't crazy. They have a plan.
想象一下一个认真对待其气候保护目标的国家。这个国家靠石油致富，但仍旨在在六年内禁止使用化石燃料驱动的汽车。这个国家存在。挪威人并不疯狂。他们有一个计划。
Germans have been building cars for over a hundred years. Do we have a plan, too? The demise of the combustion engine is near. The world is shifting to an electrified future. It's not an option anymore to say it won't happen. We've crossed the line. It's happening.
德国人已经制造汽车超过一百年了。我们也有计划吗？内燃机的终结已经近在眼前。世界正在转向电气化的未来。现在不再是说它不会发生的选择。我们已经越过了界限。它正在发生。
The question isn't what type of engine is better or more environmentally friendly. The car industry is in the throes of unprecedented change and Germany risks being left behind. The world's biggest car market, China, is powering an electric vehicle revolution and building the cars it needs itself. Trying to preserve jobs come hell or high water in sectors where I can see that world markets have already moved those sectors in a new direction. It's the worst mistake you can make.
这个问题不是哪种发动机更好或更环保。汽车工业正在经历前所未有的变革，德国面临被落下的风险。全球最大的汽车市场——中国正在推动电动汽车革命，并建造它需要的汽车。想要无论如何都保住那些已经被世界市场推向新方向的领域中的工作岗位，这是最糟糕的错误。
The world has made up its mind. Has Germany, the birthplace of the automobile, a proud car culture. We know how to build a diesel engine. The cars are probably the best in the world. We can also build combustion engines. The question is, does the world still need them?
世界已经做出决定。作为汽车诞生之地，德国有着骄傲的汽车文化，我们知道如何制造柴油发动机，我们的汽车可能是世界上最好的。我们也能够制造内燃机，但问题是，世界还需要它们吗？
We're in Bergen. This was once Norway's most polluted intersection. John Marx Plus, the junction of two major transport routes. Now the city's biggest electric vehicle charging station is located here. Do you feel like a pioneer do you feel quite normal? Quite normal, yes. It's much cheaper. I don't have to pay that whole road. I don't have to go to a gas station and it's coming in. Everyone says, well, it doesn't work because it's so complicated in all the way. No, it's not. No, it's not. Will you ever go back to combustion engine car? That's not.
我们在卑尔根。这曾经是挪威污染最严重的交叉口之一。约翰·马克斯，也是两条重要交通路线的交集。现在，城市最大的电动车充电站就设在这里。你感觉像个先锋还是很普通？很普通，是的。这样做要便宜得多。我不用支付整个道路的费用。我不必去加油站，电能正在进来。每个人都说，它不起作用，因为它非常复杂。不，不是。你还会回到内燃机车吗？不会。
No other country in the world has more electric cars per capita than Norway. 65% of all new cars sold here are electric or hybrid models. The figure's just 7% in Germany. It's not a coincidence. It's political will. Norway wants to be a pioneer. It sees climate protection as an opportunity for its economy, not a threat. It's already world leader in a mission-free technology for ships. Drivers of electric cars enjoy tax exemptions, free or cheaper public parking and the use of bus lanes. Charging stations and parking garages are standard.
世界上没有一个国家比挪威拥有更多的电动汽车，以人均计算。这里出售的所有新车中，65％是电动或混合动力型号。而在德国，这个数字只有7％。这不是巧合，而是政治意愿。挪威希望成为先行者。它将气候保护视为经济机会，而不是威胁。它已经是一种无人为的技术，对于船只来说是世界领先的。使用电动汽车的驾驶员享受免税、免费或更便宜的公共停车和专用公交车道。充电站和停车场已成标准。
I meet up with Christina Buu. Her association represents the interests of Norwegian electric car owners. Her voice counts, not just in Norway. German politicians and industry executives have also sought her advice. This clear direction is for the consumers also a clear sign that this is where we're going and this is the future. I'm really sick of hearing car manufacturers blaming consumers. Saying consumers are not ready. If someone asked me if I wanted a smartphone before it was launched, I wouldn't have understood even. If someone now wanted to take my smartphone away from me, I would have, you know, it's the same with electric mobility. The Norwegian case shows that if prices level, consumers are more than ready to go electric. So don't blame us. Don't blame the consumers. Do the job.
我与克里斯蒂娜·布见面了。她代表挪威电动汽车车主的利益。她的声音不仅在挪威有影响力，德国政界和工业高管也曾向她咨询过意见。对于消费者来说，这种明确的方向也是明确的信号，表明这是我们未来的方向。我真的很厌倦听到汽车制造商指责消费者，说消费者还没有准备好。如果有人在智能手机发布之前问我是否要一台智能手机，我甚至都不会理解。如果现在有人想要夺走我的智能手机，我会感到很不舒服，电动汽车也是如此。挪威的案例表明，如果价格水平化，消费者已经准备好采用电动汽车。所以不要指责我们，不要指责消费者。做好该做的事情。
In Oslo, 77% of all new cars sold are electric. Within a year, carbon dioxide emissions have dipped by 9%. Norway didn't invent the battery-powered car. In fact, alternatives to combustion engines have been around for a long time. In 1975, Mercedes rolled out its first emission-free van. 1976 marked the birth of Volkswagen's electric golf. BMW launched its E1 in the early 1990s. We showcased our first electric cars at the 1972 Olympic Games in Munich. They accompanied the marathon run. We now have 20 years of experience under our belt, and I think we've mastered the technology. Give us five, maybe 10 years, then we'll be ready. 27 years later, and we're still not ready.
在奥斯陆，77%的新车销售都是电动汽车，一年之内，二氧化碳排放量降低了9%。挪威并没有发明电池动力汽车，事实上，替代燃油发动机的方案已经存在了很长时间。早在1975年，梅赛德斯就推出了第一款无排放货车。1976年，大众推出了电力高尔夫。宝马在上世纪90年代初推出了E1。我们在1972年慕尼黑奥运会上展示了我们的第一辆电动汽车，它们陪伴马拉松比赛进行。现在我们拥有了20年的经验，我认为我们已经掌握了相关的技术。再给我们五年或十年的时间，我们就能准备好了。27年过去了，我们仍然没有做好准备。
Germany is nowhere near to reaching its 2020 climate goals, which foresee a million electric vehicles on its roads next year. Instead, we're still debating. Our threshold set in stone is the diesel engine better than its tattered reputation. Our electric cars pollute us in other ways.
德国远未达到其2020年气候目标，该目标预计明年将在其道路上拥有100万辆电动车。相反，我们仍在争论中。我们坚定认为柴油发动机比它破烂的声誉要好。我们的电动汽车以其他方式污染了我们的环境。
The Geneva Motor Show stomping ground of the tradition-conscious car industry. Here, nothing seems out of order. After all, Dymler is unveiling a van. It's electric. Unfortunately, it's not for sale yet. And then it presents the GLE 53, 435 horsepower, 212 grams of CO2 per kilometer. This rounder makes me feel like I can do anything, anywhere, anytime. Thank you very much. Thank you, Danny. Great job. Thank you, guys.
日内瓦车展是传统汽车工业的展示场地。在这里，没有任何事情看起来不合适。毕竟，迪姆勒公司正在展示一款电动面包车。可惜的是，它目前还不能出售。然后，他们展示了 GLE 53，拥有 435 马力和每公里 212 克的二氧化碳排放量。这辆车让我感觉自己能够在任何地方、任何时间做任何事情。非常感谢。谢谢你，丹尼。干得好。谢谢你们。
To date, most German electric vehicles have been hybrids. Big, heavy, and above all, expensive. Prices start at 70,000 euros. The premium segment has a, quote, higher price elasticity, which is another way of saying it reaps bigger profits for managers and shareholders. Small, affordable mass market ready, German manufacturers have been slow on the uptake.
到目前为止，大部分德国电动汽车都是混合动力车型。这些车型体积大、重量重，尤其昂贵，起价就在70,000欧元。高端市场拥有更高的价格弹性，这意味着对于管理人员和股东来说，能够获得更丰厚的利润。然而，德国制造商在推广小型、价格亲民的大众市场电动汽车方面进展缓慢。
Carnation Germany is evidently in no hurry to join the revolution. It's counting on tried and tested technology, on slow change. Stefan Brazel is a seasoned expert on the auto industry. He's growing increasingly concerned. I think German car makers have a 50-50 chance of surviving this world of the world. It could be that Germany is simply a victim of its own success, that on the whole, with its auto manufacturers, industry, and political backing, it was too comfortable to recognize the changes and draw the correct conclusions.
康乐丹德国显然没有急于加入革命的行列。它正在依靠经过验证和测试的技术，依靠缓慢的变革。斯特凡·布拉泽尔是汽车行业的经验丰富的专家。他越来越担心。我认为德国汽车制造商在这个世界中有50%的生存机会。德国可能只是自己成功的牺牲品，总体来看，他们的汽车制造商、产业和政治支持过于舒适，不愿意意识到变革并得出正确的结论。
Germany has yet to produce a master plan for coping with the changing automobile industry. Maybe because change is the opposite of what the government and car makers have bonded over. Some 800,000 jobs are directly dependent on the auto industry. Many more are indirectly dependent. Annual turnover, over 400 billion euros. One reason why German politicians have long worked to avert any threat to the car industry, protecting the sector from sudden, disruptive change.
德国尚未制定应对汽车行业变革的总体计划。可能是因为变革与政府和汽车制造商之间的契合相反。直接依赖汽车工业的工作岗位大约有80万个，间接依赖的更多。年营业额超过4000亿欧元。德国政治家长期以来一直致力于避免对汽车行业构成任何威胁，保护该行业免受突然的、破坏性的变化。
In 2018, the German chancellor addressed an annual gathering of German industry. We cannot alter the climate goals that we've set for ourselves, and to an extent adopted as part of European climate targets as a whole, particularly for 2030. But anything beyond those efforts threatens to drive the auto industry out of Europe. Car makers would produce the cars they sell here somewhere else. I stress that I do not want that to happen.
2018年，德国总理在德国工业年度聚会上发表演讲。我们不能改变我们为自己设定的气候目标，而且这些目标在欧洲气候目标中得到了采纳，特别是2030年的目标。但是，超过这些努力的任何事情都会威胁到汽车工业退出欧洲。汽车制造商将在其他地方生产他们在这里销售的汽车。我强调，我不希望这种情况发生。
Is change necessarily a threat? When it comes to the auto industry, the German government seems to think so. We'll use all means to fight restrictions, as in driving bands. Our goal is to avoid driving bands and shape the future of mobility in a way that includes clean combustion engines. Clean combustion engines, a flexible concept in Germany. Driving bands are red flag, threatening to curtail open roads for free citizens. The diesel emissions scandal sowed anger in Germany. The auto industry stalled, then cheated, then covered it up. And then cities imposed driving restrictions.
改变是否一定是一个威胁？在汽车行业，德国政府似乎认为是这样。我们将不惜一切代价来反对限制措施，比如驾驶限制令。我们的目标是避免驾驶限制令，并以一种包括清洁燃烧发动机在内的方式塑造未来的移动方式。在德国，清洁燃烧发动机是一个灵活的概念。驾驶限制令是一个警示标志，威胁着削减公路自由市民的自由。柴油排放丑闻在德国引起了愤怒。汽车行业停滞不前，然后作弊，再然后隐瞒罪行。接着城市实施驾驶限制。
Waiting for compensation, Germany's yellow vests feel betrayed by corporations and punished by politicians. Automotive freedom, subsidized diesel fuel, commuter allowances, incentives to sweeten life in the suburbs. But now they say, they're footing the bill for mistakes made by industry and government. They're always saying, no, it's not like that. It's not true. Of course they cheated, and VW has to answer for that. But we can't all be punished as a result.
德国的黄马甲抱怨感到自己被企业背叛，被政客惩罚，期待赔偿。他们曾经享受到汽车自由、补贴柴油燃料、通勤补贴、促进郊区生活等政策。但现在他们表示，他们正在为工业和政府犯下的错误买单。他们总是说，“不，不是这样的”，“不是真的”。当然，他们欺骗了，大众汽车公司必须为此负责。但我们不能因此遭受惩罚。
This will have a huge impact on Germany for years to come, affecting the auto industry and its suppliers all the way down to the last mechanic. Germany failed to get in the driver's seat and forge a path for others to follow. It may prove an existential mistake. Because while we Germans are still arguing about past emissions, the rest of the world is already on the road to a new era.
这将会对未来数年内的德国产生巨大影响，从汽车行业和其供应商直到最后的机械师都会受到影响。德国未能坐在驾驶座上，为其他人打造新的道路。这可能会被证明是一个存在性的错误。因为当我们德国人仍在争论过去的排放时，全世界已经走上了新时代的道路。
China, the world's biggest and most important market, it's still growing. German car makers helped power mass motorization here and made a lot of money. They command a market share of 23.2% in the combustion engine sector. But just 0.4% in the electric car sector, and that's a problem. No one can beat Germany when it comes to technology for diesel and gasoline engines. It has 130 years of experience. But when it comes to electric vehicles, everyone is taking off from the same starting line. And China is racing ahead.
中国是全球最大、最重要的市场，它仍在增长。德国汽车制造商助力了这里的大规模机动化，并赚了很多钱。他们在燃油引擎领域拥有23.2%的市场份额。但在电动汽车领域仅为0.4%，这是一个问题。在燃油和柴油发动机技术方面，德国无人能敌，它拥有130年的经验。但是，在电动汽车方面，所有人都从同一起跑线开始。而中国正在快速发展。
By 2025, Beijing wants about 25% of cars sold annually to be plug-and-hybrids or battery powered, not least because the country is suffocating in smog. But 25% in China equals the combined total of new cars sold in Germany, France, and Britain. It's a giant piece of the pie. A pie that, if Germany isn't careful, will be divided up among others. China aims to stop selling combustion engine cars in 11 years.
到2025年，北京计划每年销售的汽车中大约有25%是插电式混合动力或电池动力，这主要是因为中国正深受雾霾的困扰。但是在中国，25%等于德国、法国和英国这三个国家的新车销售总数。这是一个巨大的市场份额。如果德国不小心的话，这块蛋糕可能就会被其他人分配掉。中国计划在11年内停止销售燃油发动机汽车。
I've arranged to meet a German top manager who spent years at BMW. He helped develop the I-8, a small electric revolution at the time. But then he turned his back on Germany and came to China. He took half his development team with him. What opportunities did Kostin Breitfeld identify here that he didn't see in Germany?
我已经安排了会见一位曾在宝马工作多年的德国高级经理。他曾协助开发I-8电动车，当时是一场小型电动革命。但接着，他背弃了德国，来到了中国。他带走了一半的开发团队。Kostin Breitfeld在中国看到了哪些在德国看不到的机会呢？
Things happen in China at lightning speed. It's a gigantic market, with 30 million new cars sold each year. There's a ton of capital and investors in China, and the issue has strong government backing. In China, if the government says more electric cars are the goal, then the decision is made to install 50,000 charging stations, and by the next month they're in place.
中国事物发生的速度极快。这是一个巨大的市场，每年销售三千万辆新车。中国有大量的资本和投资者，并且这个问题得到了政府的大力支持。在中国，如果政府表示需要更多的电动汽车，那么安装五万个充电站的决定就已经做出了，并在接下来的一个月内完成了。
So normally, the follow-up question in any interview is, does that mean I'm against democracy? And naturally I say, no, I'm not. But if I look at the European democratic structures, then I see how we spend about a decade discussing new ideas. And after a decade, all that's left is 10% of the original idea. So we need to realize that if we maintain that pace of decision-making and realization, we just won't be able to keep abreast of global developments. With the speed of development in the world.
通常在任何面试中，随后的问题都是，这是否意味着我反对民主？自然而然地，我会回答，不，我不反对。但是，当我看着欧洲的民主结构时，我看到我们花了大约十年时间讨论新的想法。而在十年之后，原始想法中只剩下了10%。因此，我们需要意识到，如果我们维持这样的决策和实现步伐，我们就无法跟上全球的发展速度。随着世界的发展速度越来越快，我们需要尽快采取行动。
Las Vegas. The annual CES trade show, Spotlight's high-tech innovations from around the world. Before his current venture, Cost and Brightfeld helped build this car for Chinese startup, Biden. German manufacturing expertise, lots of cash, and unlimited government backing. The ingredients China is using to power a head on the market.
拉斯维加斯。每年的CES贸易展会聚焦了来自全球的高科技创新。在他现在的项目之前，Cost和Brightfeld曾帮助为中国初创公司Biden建造这辆汽车。德国制造专业技术、大量现金和无限的政府支持是中国用来推动市场增长的因素。
The M-Bite is a 40,000-euro electric SUV with a 1 meter 20 screen, a tablet on wheels for video conferences or online shopping to pass the time in traffic jams. It's set for production late 2019. Mercedes is here too, with a glass prototype. The mid-range combustion engine cars on the other hand can be purchased. BMW also has a vision. The eye next. Electric self-driving with a shack carpet. It's not for sale.
M-Bite是一款价值40,000欧元的电动SUV，拥有一个1米20的屏幕，是一个轮子上的平板电脑，可用于视频会议或在线购物以打发交通拥堵的时间。它计划在2019年底投产。梅赛德斯也有一个玻璃原型车。而另一方面，可以购买中档燃油车。BMW也有一个愿景，下一个目标是" Eye Next"。它是电动自动驾驶车，有一个带挂毯的车厢。它目前不出售。
I'm meaning another high-profile German who jumped ship. Karl Tomas Neumann was on the Volkswagen board. CEO of Continental, and then Opel. Now he lives in the US, where he's launched a startup. Is this really the dawn of a new era?
我指的是另一位高调的德国人离开了原来的公司。卡尔·托马斯·诺伊曼曾在大众汽车董事会任职，后来成为康腾公司的CEO，然后去了欧宝汽车。现在他住在美国，创立了一家创业公司。这真的是一个新时代的黎明吗？
The dawn of a new era. And down here we have the biggest SUV that BMW has ever built. Isn't that emblematic of the current situation in the German car industry? Sure, you could say that. It's kind of symbolic of what's going on. It certainly looks more like a dinosaur than futuristic. But the dinosaurs aren't nearing extinction. They're still successful money makers in the twilight of the combustion engine.
新时代的黎明已经到来。在这里，我们拥有BMW历史上最大的SUV。这不是德国汽车行业当前局势的缩影吗？当然可以这么说。它有点象征着正在发生的事情。它看起来更像是恐龙而不是未来主义。但恐龙并没有接近灭绝。在燃油发动机黄昏时期，它们仍然赚了很多钱。
Can success hinder progress? Is the German auto industry being held back by its own success? I do think that's a big part of it, yes. It's hard to get up that success and say to some extent, I have to destroy that success to create a new one.
成功是否会阻碍进步？德国汽车行业是否因为自己的成功而被拖累？我认为这是其中很大一部分原因。很难达到成功后就说，在某种程度上，我必须摧毁这种成功来创造新的成功。
Now you weren't exactly in a bad position at Opel to make a start. Why didn't you? We did try in the end. I would have liked to fully electrify Opel because when the emissions scandal hit, I realized it's not enough to just adhere to the laws. You need to develop a new mindset. And the mindset I would have liked for Opel would have enabled a full switch to electric car production by 2030. Then we could have gone to lawmakers and said, Hey, we need the framework so that this can work. We both need to make sure this happens. Jobs will be lost, but new ones will be created. Electric vehicles will give rise to new business opportunities. But where's this being discussed in Germany or even in Europe?
你在欧宝的处境并不差，为什么没有开始呢？最后我们确实尝试了。我本想让欧宝全面电气化，因为当尾气排放丑闻爆发时，我意识到仅满足法规规定是不够的。你需要培养一种新的心态。我希望欧宝能够拥有这种心态，使其能够在2030年之前全面切换到电动汽车生产。然后我们就可以向立法者说，嘿，我们需要一个框架，以便这可以运作。我们双方都需要确保这件事发生。工作将会丢失，但新的工作机会将会产生。电动车将会带来新的商业机会。但是在德国甚至欧洲，这方面的讨论在哪里进行呢？
Maybe we Germans simply can't part with our gas gusslers yet because they're our invention and so slick. Perfect machines with high precision parts that just keep getting better, stronger, heavier. 2.5 tons of German engineering genius. The most complex driving machine in history. An electric car doesn't need all that. Instead of an estimated 2,000 moving parts, it has just 200. Simply beneath our dignity.
也许我们德国人还不能放弃我们的大排量汽车，因为它们是我们的发明，看起来很酷。这些完美的机器有着高精密零部件，它们不断地变得更好、更强、更重。2.5吨的德国工程天才。历史上最复杂的驾驶机器。一个电动车并不需要那么多。它只有估计的200个运动部件，而不是2000个。但这比我们的身份低下了。
Carnation Germany appears comatose. It's as if all the changes have nothing to do with us. Alternative engines, driverless cars, new visions of transport. Why can't we catch up? We're a country of engineers. Perfection took us to the top. And continuity kept us there. A abrupt change is exactly the opposite.
康乃馨德国似乎处于懒散的状态。仿佛所有的变革都与我们无关。替代引擎、无人驾驶汽车、新型交通愿景。为什么我们不能跟上步伐？我们可是一支工程师之国。完美主义把我们带到了巅峰，而连续性使我们一直停留在那里。突然的变化恰恰相反。
I have an appointment with Ova Kahnat. He chairs a government advisory panel on research and innovation. And he has an explanation for what's gone wrong in Germany. You have to work hard to attain the status of innovation leader. The danger is that once you've made it to the top and there's a reversal, then you get the so-called lock-in effect. The lock-in effect means untrapped inside and can barely see a way out apart from extremely high expenditure.
我有一个和Ova Kahnat的约会。他是一位政府研究和创新咨询小组的主席。他有一个解释为什么德国出了问题。你必须努力工作才能够获得创新领袖的地位。危险在于，一旦你到达了顶峰并遇到逆转，那么你就会遭遇所谓的锁定效应。锁定效应意味着被困在里面，除非进行极高的支出，否则几乎无法找到出路。
So in the case of the auto industry, we are now at the top of our game in fossil fuel-powered cars. No one comes close. But stepping out of that comfort zone towards other types of engines is associated with very high costs, conversion costs, transaction costs. And that's called lock-in. That's what we have here in the German auto industry. And that's the challenge. How should policymakers be steering developments?
就汽车行业而言，我们现在在化石燃料汽车领域已达到巅峰水平，无人能及。但是，转向其他类型的发动机将带来非常高的转换成本和交易成本，这被称为锁定。这就是德国汽车工业所面临的挑战。决策者应该如何引导发展？
In processes of deep structural change, the government has a responsibility to secure people's incomes, but not their jobs. No one should get left behind amid such structural change. There needs to be a safety net somewhere. But trying to preserve jobs in sectors where I can see that world markets have already moved those sectors in a new direction is the worst mistake you can make.
在深度结构性变革的过程中，政府有责任确保人们的收入，但不是他们的工作。在这样的结构性变革中，没有人应该被落下，需要有某种安全网。但在那些我可以看到世界市场已经把这些行业引向了新方向的领域保留工作岗位，是你所犯的最严重的错误。
It can't have escaped anyone's notice that things are moving in a new direction in this sector. Dieselgate, the emissions crisis, theoretically a good time to be mapping out a transformation plan for policymakers too. More of the same can't be the answer in a world undergoing radical change. We're letting others call the shots.
这个领域正在朝一个新方向发展，这已经不可能逃过任何人的注意。柴油门事件、排放危机理论上对决策者来说是一个规划转型计划的好时机。在一个正在经历巨变的世界中，不能仍然采用一成不变的策略。我们需要让自己决定游戏规则。
Why is Germany like a rudderless ship? The German transport minister didn't have time to answer our questions. Instead, we speak to the minister, Stefan Bilga. Our country is closely connected to the automotive industry, so we need to consider the impact that major transformations will have on jobs. For us, this transformation is a process of evolution, not revolution, and we're managing quite well. But isn't it precisely because of that responsibility that we should be driving innovation? We've backed ambitious climate targets.
为什么德国像一艘失去舵的船？德国交通部长没有时间回答我们的问题。相反，我们与部长史特凡·比尔加交谈。我们国家与汽车工业密切相关，因此我们需要考虑重大转型对就业的影响。对于我们来说，这种转型是一种演进过程，而不是一场革命，我们正在很好地管理。但难道正是由于这种责任，我们不应该推动创新吗？我们支持宏伟的气候目标。
We've always pursued ambitious goals at the European level, which our automotive industry then has to implement. But there have been times when it seemed there was little political support for the most ambitious climate goals. There are without a doubt proposals within the Europe wide debate that we don't consider productive. In my view, the goal should not be that we decide today, in 2019, what transport will look like in Germany in the years 2025, 2030 or 2050. A lot can develop in the coming years. What if developments go in the wrong direction?
我们一直在欧洲范围内追求着宏伟的目标，然后我们的汽车工业便需要实现这些目标。但有时候，似乎缺乏对最具野心的环保目标的政治支持。在欧洲范围的讨论中，无疑有一些提议是我们不认为有生产力的。在我看来，我们的目标不应该是在2019年决定德国未来2025年、2030年或者2050年的交通状况。在未来的几年里，很多事情都有可能发生。如果事态发展的方向出了错，那该怎么办？
When the car industry does well, Germany does well. This old adage is a cornerstone of government policy. But what happens if the decade's old symbiotic relationship between government and the car industry can no longer provide answers to today's challenges and the climate crisis? Andreas Kanit is one of Germany's leading researchers in the field of transport. If nothing changes, we'll protect the German auto industry to death. We are currently endangering the five, six, seven hundred thousand jobs that we still have, because we're protecting something that has no chance of survival.
“汽车业做得好，德国就做得好。”这个老话是政府政策的基石。但是如果政府和汽车业数十年的共生关系无法回答今天的挑战和气候危机，会发生什么呢？安德烈亚斯·卡尼特是德国交通领域的领先研究人员之一。如果什么也不改变，我们会用我们的保护措施把德国的汽车业保护到死。我们目前正在危及我们仍然拥有的五六七十万个工作岗位，因为我们正在保护一个没有生存机会的东西。
What plan should the German government be making to keep us as a nation of car makers competitive? Well, policymakers have had a long-term plan. Please, everybody, drive cars. Cars go with the good life, and even better if everyone buys German cars. German technology with gasoline and diesel engines, both German inventions. That's what we've been pushing. What's the danger? If we continue this policy, then we'll be overtaken, because the world around us is different. People and countries and above all cities elsewhere in the world have long since made the decision to phase out combustion engines and switch to battery-operated cars.
德国政府应该制定什么计划来保持我们作为汽车制造国家的竞争力呢？政策制定者们已经有了长期的计划：请大家开车。开车是好生活的象征，如果每个人都买德国车，就更好了。德国技术配合汽油和柴油发动机，这两者都是德国发明。这就是我们一直在推动的。那么，危险在哪里呢？如果我们继续这种政策，那么我们会被其他国家超过，因为我们周围的世界已经不同了。全球的人们和国家，特别是世界各地的城市早已决定逐步淘汰燃烧发动机，改用电池驱动的汽车。
If we don't play along, we'll lose crucial export markets and we'll be sitting on technologies and cars that no one needs anymore. That's a problem. And it's accelerating, while Germany slams on the brakes. Zwickau in the eastern state of Saxony has a long tradition of building cars. VW opened a plant here in 1990. The Gulf has been rolling off its assembly line for years. But its days are numbered. Change is coming, probably also because pioneer sounds better than emissions cheat. Volkswagen needs a new image.
如果我们不配合，我们将失去关键的出口市场，我们将坐拥那些没人需要的技术和汽车。这是一个问题。而随着德国的刹车声越来越大，情况也在不断恶化。位于萨克森州东部的兹维考一直以建造汽车著称，大众汽车在1990年在此开设了一家工厂。数年来，高尔夫一直从此生产线上推出。但它的日子已经不多了。变革正在来临，可能也是因为“先驱者”听起来比“排放作弊”更好。大众需要一张崭新的形象。
Its vehicles are responsible for 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions. The world's biggest car maker wants to change that. It's now taking climate goals like Paris 2050 seriously, and electric vehicles are the future.
这家汽车制造商的车辆导致全球2%的二氧化碳排放。世界最大的汽车制造商希望改变这种局面。它现在认真对待像巴黎2050这样的气候目标，电动汽车是未来。
Mikhail Yostt helped devise the plan. He's chief strategist at Volkswagen, a close associate of CEO, Habat Dice. He filled a new position at BW. It never had a strategist before.
米哈伊尔·约斯特（Mikhail Yostt）协助设计了这个计划。他是大众汽车的首席战略师，也是首席执行官哈巴特·迪斯的亲密合作伙伴。他填补了BW的这个新职位，此前该职位从未有过战略师。
What do you call a strategy that propagates diesel cars for decades and then suddenly says the future is electric? For starters, one doesn't rule out the other. We've never said diesel cars have lost their relevance. But in view of the challenges we all face to meet the Paris targets and bring down CO2 levels, VW is a mass market producer really has no other choice.
你如何称呼一个策略，它在数十年内推广柴油车，然后突然说未来是电动汽车？首先，这两者不应该互相排斥。我们从未说柴油车已经失去了它们的重要性。但是考虑到我们所面临的应对巴黎协定目标并降低二氧化碳水平的挑战，作为一个大众市场生产商的大众，实际上别无选择。
But are we in Germany reacting fast enough given the speed of developments around the world? Every technological transformation comes with teething problems. Whenever you rebuild something, it takes three days before you get it to run smoothly and another three days before you get used to it. Well, I don't get the feeling this will take three days. Symbolically speaking, it can be dealtlessly sped up. Speed is what the car industry needs now. It's had its foot on the brakes for too long.
鉴于全球发展的速度，我们在德国是否能够快速反应？每次技术变革都伴随着一些问题。每次重建时，都需要三天时间才能让其正常运转，并需要另外三天时间适应。但是，我不觉得这会花费三天时间。象征性地讲，它可以快速处理。汽车行业现在需要的是速度。它的刹车已经踩了太久了。
VW's mass market electric model, the ID3, will be built in Zwickau. The company is funneling 400 million euros into the facility's conversion. But the switch to electric will make engine builders, exhaust fitters, and field pump experts redundant. So VW is sending them on what it calls a learning journey to prepare for the future. Long-term employees will have new tasks. This is where the specialists are trained in a roleplay room called Emotion.
大众汽车的大众市场电动车型ID3将在茨维考生产。该公司将投入4亿欧元用于设施改建。但转向电动化将使发动机制造商、排气管安装工和野外泵专家失业。因此，大众汽车正在将他们送往所谓的“学习之旅”，以做好未来的准备。长期在公司工作的员工将有新的任务。在一个名为“情感”的角色扮演房间中，这些专家受到培训。
After a look back at company history, trainees get a vision of the future with virtual reality. We learn the all important components of the ID Neo-Kennem and experience how these are built in special. In the middle of the light, the control of the control unit can begin their life. An experience that everyone at this plant is slated to share.
回顾公司历史后，实习生通过虚拟现实技术获得了未来的愿景。我们学习了ID Neo-Kennem的重要组成部分，并亲身体验了这些组成部分的制造过程。在光芒中间，控制单元的控制也开始了他们的生活。这是全厂每个人都要分享的体验。
Based on what you know so far, do you think you're in for a big change? It will be a big change for everyone here. VW is proud of the 17,000 orders for electric vehicles. But that's just the start. The company builds 44,000 vehicles every day. The next challenge is the future. The future is the future.
根据你目前了解的情况，你觉得你会面临一个巨大的变化吗？这对这里的每个人来说都将是一个巨大的变化。大众汽车公司为电动汽车收到了17,000份订单，引以为豪。但这只是个开始。该公司每天制造44,000辆车，下一个挑战是未来。未来是未来。
Change is coming. But what about the German auto industry and government policy? Can we afford to be complacent or worse yet without a plan? China is building its own fleet of electric cars. German engineers are helping. Now German car makers want change faster than the government.
改变即将到来。但德国汽车业和政策又该怎么办呢？我们能否掉以轻心，甚至没有计划吗？中国正在建造自己的电动汽车。德国工程师正在提供帮助。现在，德国汽车制造商希望比政府更快地实现改变。
The transport minister calls Volkswagen's plan totally wrong and wants to keep an open technological mind. A look at Norway shows government back change gets results. So do clearly formulated goals. What we are telling is how fast this can happen. And it will be showing how fast it is.
交通部长称大众汽车的计划完全错误，希望保持开放的技术思路。挪威的情况表明，政府支持变革会取得成果，制定明确的目标同样重要。我们需要强调的是这个变革可以发生得多么快，并且它将表明它有多么迅速。
So for the car industry, the selling cars in Norway and the future, they have to be zero emission. That's where we're going and it's happening now. So that's just a message. We have to make it happen fast and every country will benefit from being in the forefront of this change instead of lagging behind.
对于汽车行业来说，在挪威销售汽车的未来，汽车必须是零排放的。这正是我们所走的路，并且现在就正在发生。因此，我们必须尽快实现它，并且每个国家都将受益于走在这个变革的前沿，而不是滞后于后面。
It's the end of an era. But also the beginning of something new. The sooner we accept that and seize it as an opportunity, the better. All of this can be done if there's a will to get it done. If we just sit back and wait to see what happens, then we'll face major problems. And I think we're already seeing the first signs of those problems today.
这是一个时代的终结，但也是新时代的开始。越早认识到这一点，越能抓住机遇。只要有意愿，我们可以做到这一切。如果我们坐以待毙，等待事情的发展，那么我们将面临重大问题。我认为我们今天已经看到了这些问题的第一个迹象。
If car nation Germany doesn't look to the future, then others will shape its future. Industry and government have sat back too long. More of the same is no model for the future. We need to hit the road.
如果汽车之国德国不向未来看齐，那么其他人将塑造其未来。工业和政府已经坐得太久了。继续走老路不是未来的模式。我们需要上路了。