MORTGAGE RATES RISING, $OPEN Q4 Earnings Expectations, Zillow Partnership Release - Podcast #5
发布时间 2023-02-17 20:16:59 来源
Hello and welcome to a new episode of the Data Door Front Porch Podcast. We have a lot of exciting news today. We're going to talk and walk you through the Zillow Open Door partnership. It just launched today. We're going to walk you through the flow. We're going to comment what we think the thing will work.
大家好，欢迎来到全新的《Data Door Front Porch Podcast》节目。今天有很多令人兴奋的消息。我们将会谈论并向您介绍Zillow Open Door合作伙伴关系。它今天刚刚启动。我们将向您展示整个流程，并评论我们认为这个项目会起作用的方面。
We're going to talk about mortgage rates spiking and what that might mean for demand in the next few weeks. We also are going to talk about marketing news from Open Door Open Door is ramping up their marketing nationwide and have some really cool campaigns as well as our expectations for earnings next week. Yeah, that's it. Let's get started, Tyler.
我们将谈论抵押贷款利率飙升可能对未来几周需求的影响。我们还将谈论来自Open Door的营销新闻，Open Door正在全国范围内加强营销，并推出了一些非常酷的活动，我们对下周的收益预期也将进行讨论。就是这样，让我们开始吧，Tyler。
We heard today that Zillow finally is rolling out the Open Door partnership in Atlanta and Rally. Tell us more about that. Yeah, so Zillow announced earnings today after the close and basically what they revealed is that the long awaited Open Door Zillow partnership is now live. We haven't gotten too many details about it and unfortunately no analysts ask any follow-up questions during the conference call. But what we do know is that Zillow launched the partnership with Open Door in two big markets. So markets Atlanta and Rally, which are Open Door's number two and number 15 largest markets by volume as of right now.
今天我们听说 Zillow 终于在亚特兰大和拉力推出了开放合作伙伴计划。可以告诉我们更多相关信息吗？是的，今天收盘后 Zillow 公布了财报，他们透露这个令人期待已久的开放房门合作计划现在已经上线了。目前我们还没有得到太多详细信息，不幸的是在电话会议期间没有分析师提出任何后续问题。但我们所知道的是，Zillow 与 Open Door 合作在两个大市场推出了该项目，这两个市场分别是 Open Door 目前规模排名第二和第十五大的亚特兰大和拉力市。
And so the exciting thing about this is not only do we get this announced but we also got sort of the user experience, so the customer experience when they enter into Zillow's funnel and end up moving over to Open Door's website. And I think it's important to think about it this way, Zillow is trying to gain more seller solutions, right? And so when a homeowner comes to Zillow to sell their home, Zillow doesn't currently have a lot of options because guess what, they exit it I buying in 2021. But by partnering with Open Door when homeowners come to Zillow to sell their home now, Zillow can give them a variety of options including getting a cash offer from Open Door today. And so that partnership is really exciting because as you can imagine it really broadens Open Door's funnel for prospective clients and acquisitions. And we've been really waiting on that because we continue to believe that Open Door ramping acquisitions or home acquisitions is the most important part of their thesis as we move farther into 2023.
因此，这件令人兴奋的事情不仅仅是我们获得了这个宣布，而且我们还获得了用户体验，即当他们进入Zillow的漏斗，最终转移到Open Door的网站时，客户的体验。我认为这样思考很重要，因为Zillow正在努力获得更多的卖家解决方案，对吧？因此，当房主来到Zillow出售他们的房屋时，Zillow目前没有很多的选择，因为猜猜看，他们在2021年退出了iBuying。但是通过与Open Door合作，当房主来到Zillow出售他们的房屋时，现在Zillow可以给他们提供各种选择，包括今天从Open Door获取现金报价。因此，这种合作非常令人兴奋，因为可以想象，它真正扩大了Open Door未来客户和收购的漏斗。我们一直在期待这个，因为我们继续相信，随着我们进入2023年，Open Door的主要论点是在扩大他们的房屋收购。
Yeah, before we jump into how the experience looks like, we have a recording of the experience and can work for step by step, you're already drinking early today. That's great. I guess it's late for you. I just wanted to be a double click on the two markets at Lenta and Rally. What we see is from Open Door's perspectives, they have a very different margin profile right now in their inventory in those two markets. I think Atlanta is super healthy. Rally is not terrible, but it's on the low end of the margin spectrum. They're barely preftal on the embedded margin on their listing margins right now.
嗯，在我们讨论经验是什么样子之前，我们有一段经验的记录，可以一步一步地进行工作，你今天很早就开始喝酒了。这很好。我猜对你来说已经很晚了。我只是想双击Lenta和Rally这两个市场。从Open Door的角度来看，他们目前在这两个市场的库存中有非常不同的毛利率。我认为亚特兰大非常健康。Rally不是太糟糕，但它在毛利谱系的低端。他们目前在他们的上市毛利率上几乎没有盈利。
We don't know how many customers will go for this. We don't know how much Open Door will increase purchases for this, but it's quite interesting that they took two markets. They didn't take the two strongest markets in margins, just two very different markets, right? Yeah. Yeah, I think that brings up two points. One is we can see an immediate boost in margins for Open Door just because of the sheer volume that Atlanta has as a baseline, right? Open Door's operational capacity in Atlanta is so much that they could probably absorb a three to four X volume in that market alone with the Zillow partnership and still operate well, right? That's really exciting because they sort of picked the market where they dominate, right? Atlanta is far and away.
我们不知道有多少客户会接受这项服务。我们也不知道Open Door将会为此增加多少销售额，但他们选择了两个市场还是非常有意思的。他们并没有选择利润最高的两个市场，而是选择了两个非常不同的市场，对吧？是的。我认为这提出了两个问题。一是我们可以看到Open Door的利润会立即增加，因为亚特兰大市作为基准已经有了相当大的交易量。 Open Door在亚特兰大的业务能力是如此之强，他们可能会吸收三到四倍的交易量并且仍然可以正常运营，对吧？这真是令人兴奋的，因为他们在自己能够控制的市场中选择了支配市场。
Open Door's best market. I don't necessarily mean always has the highest margin or always has the highest number of homes, but just across the board is their blue chip margin market, right? Bees in the top three for volume, always in the top three for margin, they just crush it there. Being able to broaden the funnel there means even more operational excellence in their core market, which is really exciting. But Raleigh is interesting because, like you said, they haven't been performing very well in Raleigh. It's probably a 25% tile by margin market for them. What's exciting about that for me at least is you could really turn things around quickly with regard to listing margin or embedded margin in a place like Raleigh if the Zillow faucet begins to turn on and you start getting all these new homes acquired at really good prices because then those homes can be realisted with pretty fat spread attached to it. That's exciting.
Open Door的最佳市场。我并不是指它总是有最高的利润或总是有最多的房屋，而是它在所有方面都是他们的优质市场，对吧？在交易量前三中，利润总是前三的，他们在那里表现出色。能够在那里扩大漏斗意味着在他们的核心市场上更多的运营卓越，这真的很令人兴奋。但是，Raleigh很有趣，因为像你所说的，他们在Raleigh的表现并不好。对于他们而言，这可能是一个25％的利润市场。对于我来说，令人兴奋的是，如果Zillow的水龙头开始开放，并开始以真正优惠的价格收购所有这些新房屋，那么在像Raleigh这样的地方，您可以快速改变上市利润或嵌入式利润，因为那些房屋可以重新列出，附加着相当大的差价。这是令人兴奋的。
But the other thing that's important to say before we dive into the UX is to remember that Zillow is highly incentivized for this project and partnership to go well. Not just from a payment perspective, but from a we need Open Door to do well for this deal to make sense perspective.
在我们深入探讨用户体验之前，需要强调的另一件事是，记住Zillow非常有动力推动这个项目和合作成功。这不仅是从支付的角度出发，更是从我们需要Open Door成功才能使这笔交易变得有意义的角度出发。
So Zillow is being paid basically referral fee to Open Door when it sends home owners to Open Door's website through this integration. But also, there are performance milestones where Zillow is awarded warrants of Open Door equity because of this relationship. And those warrants basically begin at $15 a share for Open Door. I don't know if you've checked Open Door's stock price recently, but it's like about $2 a share. So that's a ways to go. And so for this deal to make sense for Open Door for it to be a smart move by CEO Rich Barton, Open Door has to both do well and Zillow has to both do well.
因此，当Zillow通过这种整合将房主发送到Open Door的网站时，基本上是向Open Door支付推荐费。但另外，在这种关系中，还存在基于表现里程碑而授予Zillow Open Door股权认股权证的情况。这些认股权证基本上从Open Door的每股15美元开始。我不知道您最近是否查看了Open Door的股票价格，但它大约是每股2美元。所以这还有一段路要走。因此，对于Open Door的CEO Rich Barton而言，这笔交易要让Open Door感到有意义，这必须同时让Open Door和Zillow都做得好。
But either way, it's a win-win for Open Door because they're getting huge funnel whether or not the partnership manifest where their stock price goes up. So I'm excited about it either way, but just being able to see that they finally turned it on was big news for today.
无论如何，对于Open Door来说都是赢得双方的结果，因为他们可以得到大量的销售渠道，无论合作是否成立，他们的股价都会上涨。因此，无论如何，我都感到兴奋，但是能够看到他们终于实现了这个目标，这对今天来说是个重要的消息。
What I also love is the emphasis on this being a long term partnership. So they might be collecting those warrants and this equity and just to emphasize the minimum price on the equity is $15. And I think at the time when this deal was announced and published, the stock price was already at like six or $5. I have to be afraid on this because I will link it in the show notes. So if anybody wants to dive into that and link it to SEC filings as well.
我也喜欢的是他们强调这是一项长期合作。他们可能正在收集这些认股权和股权，并且强调股权的最低价格为15美元。我认为当这项交易被宣布并发布时，股票价格已经达到了六或五美元。我必须要提醒大家注意这一点，因为我会在展示注释中提供链接，如果有人想深入了解并将其与SEC文件联系起来。
But that means they already were pretty confident that the time when the stock price was depressed, now they have to be even more confident. And they assume this was part of the negotiation, right?
这意味着他们早已相当自信，在股价被压低的时候，现在他们必须更加自信。而且他们认为这是谈判的一部分，对吗？
They're not just going to get cash, no, they believe that the company will be worth something that's why they get equity. And they announced this is like a five year deal or something. It's a long term deal. They're not trying this out and giving up. They will get to work on making sure this makes sense for both companies in the next five years.
他们不仅仅是为了获取现金，他们相信这家公司将具有价值，所以他们获取了股权。而且他们宣布这是一项长达五年的协议。这是一项长期协议。他们不是试着这样做然后放弃。在接下来的五年里，他们会着手确保这对两家公司都有意义。
All right. Let's take a look at how the funnel action looks like. We have recording here of the user experience. I hope you can see that maybe starting at the beginning.
好的，让我们来看看漏斗操作是什么样子的。我们有用户体验的录音。希望你会看到从一开始就开始。
If you are looking up your own home address on Zillow, you will see a box on the public page, but also if you add it to your address to use Zillow account, you will see this as well. A new box saying you can get a cash offer for this home. And there's an estimated market value attached to it, which is still the estimate. It's the Zillow estimate. It's not what opener things to preliminary also will be. It's what the expectations types with the estimate, right?
如果你在 Zillow 网站上查看自己的家庭地址，你会看到公开页面上有一个方框。如果你添加地址并使用 Zillow 账户，你也会看到这个方框。它会告诉你可以得到这个房屋的现金报价。附有估值，这只是 Zillow 的估算。这不是最后结果，而是预期结果。估算结果是什么取决于其预测类型。
You can click on this button and you get immediately into the very similar experience that we have on the open door page. You get a lot of questions about your home. What was quite interesting is on this page, you need to fill out a lot of information about your home, like how many bedrooms you have, how many, when was the home built. And all this information is on the Zillow public page, but it's kind of weird that you have to enter this. And I think in actual open doors, slow on open doors website, this is all pre-thought, the data that they have.
你可以点击这个按钮，直接进入类似于我们开放门户页面的体验。你会接收到一系列关于你的房屋的问题。有趣的是，在这个页面上，你需要填写许多关于你的房屋的信息，比如你有多少卧室，家是什么时候建造的等等。所有这些信息都在Zillow的公共页面上，但是你需要输入它们有点奇怪。我想，在Open Doors网站上，这些数据都经过预先思考和处理了。
So it's kind of maybe an additional hurdle on purpose or an, so you see me entering all this data that I copied over from Zillow's actual public page. And after you fill out all this data, which will take me a while in the video, who know about three fourths bathrooms, otherwise, have you ever heard of that before? No, I have no idea what they're doing. Important for the evaluation, it seems, I guess.
所以这可能是有意为之的额外障碍，你能看到我正在输入所有这些我从Zillow的实际公共页面复制过来的数据。当你填写完所有这些数据，这会花费我一些时间在视频中，你知道三分之四的浴室吗?不知道，我不知道他们在做什么。看起来对评估很重要，我想。
A lot of questions here. And I guess there's a lot of questions here that we'll just call it from the experience. We have to enter our name and our phone number here. Obviously, I just used a generic Atlanta address here. This is not my name and not my phone number. Please don't call me. And we get a little bit of a disclosure of all the companies that Zillow's affiliated with.
这里有很多问题。我想这里会有很多问题，我们只能从经验中称之为。我们必须在这里输入我们的姓名和电话号码。显然，我只是在这里使用了一个普通的亚特兰大地址。这不是我的名字，也不是我的电话号码。请不要打电话给我。我们会得到一个涵盖了Zillow合作伙伴公司的披露。
And after that, we see. We get to a screen that takes a little bit of time. I guess this is where Zillow talks to OpenNose API and gets a preline merely offer based on the data that was input. And there it is.
之后，我们就可以看到了。我们到达了一个需要一点点时间的屏幕。我猜这里是Zillow与OpenNose API进行交流，根据输入的数据得到一个预估价格报价。报价就在这里了。
We get to an offer page with two parts to it. One is sell of an agent, which shows Zillow's testament. I think it was the same thing as in the beginning confirm. Actually, this one is higher than in the beginning. Maybe just as actually all is coming from OpenNose. This is probably a mixed result of what the most accurate number of what the homes were right now. And the first option is selling with a part of the agent.
我们进入了一个包含两个部分的报价页面。其中一个是代理销售，展示了Zillow的证明。我认为这与一开始的确认是相同的。实际上，这个价格比一开始的更高。也许这只是因为所有的信息都来自OpenNose。这可能是房屋现在最准确的价格的混合结果。第一个选项是与代理商一起出售。
That means if you select this, your offer would go to probably a premier agent that is working with you to list the home, you can see you schedule a call with an agent to refine your home value and create a selling plan. Then you decide to sell on the sale price and miss your home. And then the next step, obviously, we know how home probably works. You just select the winning offer. There's nothing in between no like showing or anything. That's kind of weird here. But like you start like a winning offer and then you close and get paid.
这意味着如果您选择此选项，您的出价可能会发送给一个与您一起列出房屋的高级代理人，您可以安排与代理人通话，以精确确定房屋价值并制定销售计划。然后您将决定按出售价出售您的房屋，接下来的步骤显然是流程已知，您只需选择最终获胜的出价即可，期间没有任何繁琐的流程。这看起来有些奇怪，但您会从获胜的出价开始，然后进行房屋交易并收到回报。
It's also quite honest about the benefits and things to consider with traditional seller, which is quite interesting. And then we see the open door offer, the preliminary offer. It is quite transparent about the, let me go back here. It is transparent about the fee, the 5% fee that you're paying to open door. And the closing costs and your estimated cash per se. It also has some details about how the process works, the digital work through and actually getting paid after that. And I'll give you the benefits, get an all cash offer within days, keep staging in open houses, choose a closing date and move. They call out that is less hands on mostly digital experience, which is interesting wording for this as well.
这段话谈到了Open Door公司的诚实，它很清楚地介绍了传统卖家的好处和需要考虑的事项。然后我们看到了Open Door公司的开放式报价和初步报价。它非常透明，让人清楚地了解到你需要向Open Door公司支付5%的费用和房屋交易的结算费用以及你的预估现金收益。此外，它还详细介绍了房屋交易过程中的数字化工作和最终的付款方式。其优点是可以在几天内得到全款报价，保留家具和开放式看房，并且可以选择交易日期和搬家。此外，他们还特别强调这是一种不太需要人工干预的数字化体验，这是一个有趣的措辞。
If you now decide to go with the open door offer, you click on continue to open door where you have to enter your email address and you get a link to open door and you get into the default open door sell experience. You're lending an open door website, you're locked in there. What's interesting is the buyer services that open door offers, those are not available in this, if you're going through this one. So the assumption is, whoever, whatever customer is open door requires here, they are not allowed to upsell them on other services that sell my offer as well. It's only for selling services, likely, also not for third parties, selling experiences. Those are only rolled out in Texas right now, so we don't really know how it will behave.
如果您现在决定选择开门报价，您可以点击“继续”按钮以打开门的链接，然后输入您的电子邮件地址，进入默认的开门卖体验。您将进入一个开放的门网站，并被锁定在那里。有趣的是，开门提供的买家服务在此处是不可用的。因此，我们假设任何一个在开门网站上的客户，他们不允许在其他销售服务的同时，向他们推销其他服务。这只用于销售服务，很可能也不适用于第三方销售体验。目前仅在德克萨斯州推出，因此我们不知道它的行为会如何。
But it's very likely that Zilla wants customers to open door to then sell on their exclusive market place, right? Yeah, just want to dovetail off that point because the absolute best version of this partnership is that Zilla sends leads to open door which then go to open doors, their party marketplace. And open door has an offer but also has all these offers from institutions and prospective home buyers that open door links to those sellers. That is the best version of this partnership, a better scenario for open door would just be if they can make that third party marketplace sing by themselves.
但是很有可能Zilla希望顾客打开门，然后在他们的专有市场上销售，对吗？是的，我想要顺承一下这一点，因为这种合作的最佳版本是Zilla向open door发送线索，然后这些线索到达open door的第三方市场。Open door不仅有自己的报价，还有来自机构和有意向购买房子的居民的报价，open door将这些报价链接到卖家。这是合作的最佳版本，open door更好的场景只是他们可以让第三方市场自己唱响。
But I would say, let's say we're 18 months from now and the third party marketplace is still only 5% of open doors business. I think if I were in the war room trying to decide what next steps would be, I would really want to integrate the third party experience with Zilla to try to make that happen. When I used to write about open door big long essays about strategy and the opportunity, I said that it didn't really make sense for open door and Zilla to team up, but that is the one place where the puzzle pieces fit perfectly, right? Because if all of these 200 million eyeballs that come to Zilla's website every month, all those sellers that are in that population, if those can be sent over to open door's third party marketplace, that is the best real estate model in existence. It would be a tighten.
我觉得，如果在18个月后第三方市场仍仅占开放门店业务的5％，我想如果我在战争室里努力决定下一步该怎么做，我真的希望将第三方体验与Zilla整合起来尝试使其发生。 当我以前写关于开放门大量篇幅的战略和机会的文章时，我说开放门和Zilla联手不太合理，但这是所有拼图完美契合的地方，对吗？因为如果Zilla网站每月有2亿的访问量和所有这些销售人员，如果这些销售人员可以转到开放门的第三方市场，那就是最好的房地产模型。那将是一种紧缩。
Yeah, I wonder what's the little things about that? I guess it eats into Zilla's core business, which is showing MLS data, right? My assumption is all customers that are coming through this funnel will only get the first party experience, not even the buy with open door experience. One thing we saw in the press release is that these customers going to open door might even use Zilla's closing services. So there might even be limitations in the long term of how tight an escrow can be attached to this from open door's perspective. I think Zilla will make sure that this is beneficial to their users' experiences and not make sure to open those users' experiences. So we'll be interesting.
我在想这个小细节是什么呢？我猜这会侵蚀Zilla的核心业务——展示MLS数据，对吧？我的假设是，通过这个渠道进入的所有客户只能获取第一方体验，甚至包括与Open Door购买的体验都不行。我们在新闻稿中看到的一件事情是，这些客户去Open Door甚至可能会使用Zilla的结算服务。因此，从Open Door的角度来看，长期而言可能会有与这个挂钩的仲裁的限制。我认为Zilla会确保这对于用户体验有益，并不会着重于打开这些用户体验。这将很有趣。
How does it both? If there will be an expansion of services that they included from open door site. One interesting thing is when I went for this flow the first time, I actually got a text message from Zilla. So immediately there's a Zilla consulted that contacts you even if you haven't finished the flow. And I assume this is an open, this is a Zilla employee that makes sure you're actually converting for this flow. So this is what will this sell a consult and recommend? There are two options. Will they recommend the open door option or will they recommend the premier agent?
这是如何同时进行的呢？如果他们将会从开放门户网站中包括服务的扩张。有趣的是，当我第一次进行这个流程时，我实际上收到了一条来自Zilla的短信。因此，即使您尚未完成流程，也会立即有一个Zilla顾问与您联系。我认为这是一个开放的Zilla员工，他确保您实际上正在为这个流程进行转换。那么销售顾问会推荐什么呢？有两个选择。他们会推荐开放门户选项还是推荐高级代理？
I think from Zilla's perspective, if you're talking to a Zilla employee, it actually makes sense to recommend an open door option. Because if you think about it, Zilla only gets paid if the sell actually converts and there's a lot of drop off points. If they connect you to Zilla Premiere Partner, right?
从Zilla的角度来看，如果你在和Zilla的员工交谈，推荐开放式的选择是有意义的。因为想想看，只有在实际的销售转化并且有很多放弃点时，Zilla才会得到付款。如果他们连接你到Zilla的Premiere合作伙伴，对吧？
You could drop off at the end when you already had 15 showings and you just don't want to do this anymore and you put your own mouth market or you could just never want to talk to the person you could connect it to. There's a lot less risk and the experience is a lot shorter if they sent you to open door. I think it's kind of a conversation what actually fits the seller, but it's really interesting that there's this hands-on sales experience.
当你已经有了15个展示并且不想再做这件事情了，你可以结束这个过程；或者你可以选择不想再与某个人交谈。如果他们将你送到Open Door，那么风险要小得多，经验也会短得多。我认为这取决于卖家的具体情况，但是这种亲身销售经验真的很有趣。
I even got immediately a call like an hour later from Zilla's seller. I'm going to consult it. I didn't take the call. It would have been interesting to hear what they were trying to pitch, but it was. Paul and I messed with them a little bit and got down the road and kind of been like, I'm really between these two options.
之后，我立刻收到了Zilla卖家的电话。我准备好了向他咨询。但我没接电话。虽然很想听他们在推销些什么，但我没有。保罗和我有点跟他们开玩笑，然后我们进行了讨论，他们之间的选择有些纠结。
What do you think about open door? Just to see what they're trying to say. Maybe you can do this for next episode. It was still 5 a.m. for me. I was like, I'm not going to talk to somebody from Zilla right now. I've had 10 people in our discord. We'll do it by tomorrow. Yeah. It would be interesting to see what they say.
你认为开放式门户怎么样？只是为了看看他们想说什么。也许你可以在下一集做这个。对我来说，当时还是早上5点。我当时想，我现在不打算和来自Zilla的人说话。我们的discord里已经有了10个人。我们明天再做吧。是啊。看看他们会怎么说是挺有趣的。
意思：这句话是说这个人在考虑一个关于开放门户的想法，并建议在下一集中研究该想法。虽然在 5 a.m.起床有点早，但他很感兴趣了解大家的看法，因此很乐意在下一集中讨论这个话题。此外，他还暗示他们昨晚已经有了很多人在他们的discord聊天室中参加大家的讨论，所以他决定明天再开始讨论这个话题。
Yeah. Pretty exciting news. I didn't expect it to be that friendly already or to launch executive on those running school days. So I'm pretty happy with that. Hopefully we get some more details around openness side of things next week. Hopefully some of those analysts will actually ask questions about it to clarify.
是的，这是令人兴奋的消息。我没想到现在已经这么友好了，或者说在学校运营期间已经推出了行政人员。所以我对此感到非常高兴。希望我们下周能够得到更多关于开放性方面的细节。希望那些分析师能够真正问些问题来澄清这个问题。
I think the one final point I want to make about that before we move on is I think the Zilla open door partnership was announced prior to open door announcing their plans for this third party marketplace. But that doesn't, I mean, obviously they've been thinking about this third party marketplace for a long time.
在我们继续之前，我想强调最后一个观点，那就是在开门计划第三方交易市场之前，Zilla公开门合作已经宣布了。但这并不意味着他们显然已经思考了这个第三方交易市场很长一段时间。
So that doesn't mean that behind closed doors open door and Zilla didn't come to an agreement regarding the third party marketplace. But I would say the important thing to remember is that the economics of the third party sale for open door being the middle man in the transaction mean that open door can pay higher, higher, you know, referral fees and still end up more profitable in a transaction using less of their leverage in debt in their balance sheet and still grow their third party marketplace, profitably.
所以这并不意味着在门闭着的情况下，Open Door和Zilla没有就第三方市场达成协议。但我认为需要记住的重要事情是，Open Door 在作为交易中间人的第三方销售的经济学意义上，意味着他们可以付更高的介绍费，同时使用较少的债务杠杆在资产负债表上，仍然能够获得更多的利润，并有利可图地增长他们的第三方市场。
And so I would be, I'd be pretty disappointed if there wasn't a long term plan for open door to include the third party marketplace because, truthfully, it's a better customer experience too, right? Like right now you look at open doors offers on homes and they're having to offer, you know, 10% less than maybe what the zest of it says because there's so much volatility which we'll talk about in a little bit.
如果开发商没有长期计划包括第三方市场，我会非常失望，因为说实话，这也是更好的顾客体验，对吧？像现在你看看开发商在房屋上的报价，他们不得不提供比Zest更低10%的价格，因为存在许多不稳定性，我们稍后会谈论。
And so they need to make sure that they're, you know, they're buying these homes at good spreads. But in a situation where open doors the middle man, they can connect and just take their normal fee. And so there's a lot more options for the customer. It's just as fast and ideally, you know, the customers actually able to pocket a little bit more cash in that situation. More options is always good for the customer, right?
因此，他们需要确保他们购买这些房屋的差价合理。但在中间人开放门户的情况下，他们可以连接并收取正常费用。因此，客户有更多选择。它同样快速，理想情况下，客户能够在这种情况下留下更多现金。对于客户来说，更多的选择总是有好处的，对吧？
And that's what I think we should be fighting for in residential real estate. Being able to integrate third party marketplace in the Zillow deal is must be like the long-term goal of this product. Yeah, I would definitely not drool it out. Especially if you look at markets, rural markets where there's just not that many cash offers etc.
我认为我们应该在住宅房地产业中为此而奋斗。将第三方市场整合到Zillow交易中，对于这个产品而言，这肯定是长期目标。特别是考虑到市场，例如农村市场，那里几乎没有现金报价等因素，我肯定不会撤回这个想法。
Like in or where you open door can make a confident offer, we talk or we heard about this before like how can open door go truly nationwide in every single community, not just the big markets that they're in right now. And if you're party marketplaces, they're waiting to go. And if they have to demand and the supply, then I don't see why Zillow would say no to this additional way of monetizing traffic, right?
就像在一些地方或通过门可以让一个有信心的报价，我们之前已经谈论或听说过如何让开门成为真正覆盖每个社区的全国性活动，而不仅仅是他们现在所在的大市场。如果你是派对市场，他们正在等待安排。如果他们有需求和供应，那么我不认为 Zillow 会拒绝通过这种额外的流量变现的方式，对吧？
And opting about free is down the line. It's probably not something that will happen this year or next year. But as if open door gets traction with the third party marketplace, it would be smart for Zillow to go in under this. So to not miss relevancy. I agree. That's far in the future where we talk about Zillow, you lose cut and relevancy to open door if ever, right?
选择免费是后续的事情。这可能不是今年或明年会发生的事情。但如果开放门户在第三方市场获得支持，Zillow 前往其中是明智的选择，以免失去相关性。我同意。如果不跟进开放门户，那么在未来，谈到 Zillow，你会失去和开放门户的联系和相关性，对吗？
All right, this was a very exciting topic, positive topic. Let's go to something that is a bit more anxiety producing. We saw mortgage 30 year mortgage rates reach and you hide today for this year to 6.75 percent. This is from just two weeks ago where we were at 5.99 percent. This is a major jump after the CPI print this week and could be devastating to demand. Nobody really knows.
好的，这是一个非常令人兴奋和积极的话题。现在我们来谈一些更加令人焦虑的话题。我们看到，30年固定抵押贷款利率在今天达到了6.75％，这是今年最高的水平。而就在两周前，我们还处于5.99％的水平。这是在本周CPI公布后的一个重大跃升，可能对需求造成毁灭性影响，但没有人真正知道。
I mean, there's a lot of seasonality as well. But like, what could this mean for open door sales or their position pays going forward?
我是说，这也有很多季节性的因素。但是，这对于开放式销售或他们未来的职位薪酬意味着什么呢？
Yeah, so I have to be honest. I know that high mortgage rates doesn't sound like a good thing, but I almost welcome it in the situation. We talked a little bit about this before.
是的，说实话，我知道高房贷利率听起来不像是好事，但在这种情况下我几乎欢迎它。我们之前谈过这个话题。
We started the show, but what we've seen in the data is that open door is nearing record highs for sales volume. Or they're heading into record volumes for sales, record volumes for sales. At the same time, they're also making record lows for home acquisitions.
我们开始了节目，但是从数据中看到的是开门公司的销售量即将创下历史新高，或者说他们正朝着创纪录的销售量迈进。与此同时，他们的房屋收购量也创下了历史新低。
There's massive disparity between how many homes are selling, how many homes are buying. I'll tell you this. Open doors currently today, peak volume for the pending pipeline of home sales. I've checked the past few days and it continues to rise.
目前，销售房屋和购买房屋的数量之间存在巨大的差距。我告诉你，今天开放的门户是家庭销售待处理管道的峰值。我已经检查了最近几天，它还在继续上升。
Mortgage rates are higher today. It's the highest it's been in 2023, point taken. As of yet, I haven't seen that effect, the pending pipeline.
今日的房贷利率较高，这是2023年以来的最高点。听明白了。但目前为止，我还没有看到这种影响对待处理的流量管道产生什么影响。
But that's one point. But the reason that I say that I'm a little bit more optimistic or welcoming of this is the fact that open doors purchase volumes are so low, they're not currently sitting on any recently held inventory.
但这只是一方面。但我说我对此有点更乐观或欢迎的原因在于，开放门户的购买量非常低，他们目前没有任何最近保存的库存。
The minimal number of homes that they've recently bought are being sold off very quickly. And so they're still working on selling through some of that old inventory, which they're never going to profit on any ways and they've already written down.
他们最近购买的房屋数量很少，但是这些房屋很快就被卖出去了。因此，他们仍在努力销售一些旧库存，但无论如何都不会赚钱，并且已经计提了减值。
And so there are a few takeaways from this. One, perhaps open door is or was waiting to acquire homes because of all this expected volatility in early 2023.
因此，从中可以得出几个要点。第一个是，或许Open Door是为了抓住2023年初预期的市场波动而等待收购房屋。
And it might create an opportunity where open door can begin acquiring homes at lower prices that are not artificially low. They actually are low and according to value because of these recent increases in mortgage rates, that wouldn't be the worst thing, especially with probably four to five more months this year of having expected seasonal HPA boosts before we head into the winter months and open door needs to acquire homes.
这可能会创造出机会，使得Open Door可以以不是人为低价的更低价格购买房屋。它们实际上是低的并且根据价值计算因为最近抵押率的上升，这不是最坏的选择，特别是在预计今年还有四到五个月的季节性房产价格上涨之后，我们要进入冬季，Open Door需要购买房屋。
Basically over the next four to six weeks otherwise volumes are going to suffer significantly in Q3 and Q4.
基本上，在接下来的四到六个星期里，如果不这样做，第三季度和第四季度的销售量将会显著下降。
Yeah, what worries me here is really the speed again of this climbing. It started like end of last week. We probably won't see pending nothing reflected pending data for another two or three weeks. We can't even really see in the amount data yet that like nobody knows how the next four weeks in housing, we could get to a total stop like we did last October or June. That's it's a similar spike not as crazy as in June because that was totally surprising but definitely in October.
是的，我在这里真正担心的是这种攀升的速度。它从上周末开始了。我们可能需要再等待两三个星期才能看到数据反映出悬而未决的情况。我们现在还无法看到确切的数据量，没有人知道未来四周的房地产市场会怎样，我们可能会像去年10月或6月那样完全停滞。这是一个类似的上升，虽然不像6月那样疯狂，但肯定比去年10月要多。
It's really hard to tell where things are going yet. Unfortunately, again, I'm very excited in real estate. Mortgage rates are going down below 6%, we reach 5, we'll be a really good year and then we'll start CPI print. We just go a real punch in stomach again.
目前很难确定未来的走向。不幸的是，我还是对房地产非常兴奋。抵押贷款利率正在下降，低于6%。如果跌到5%，那么这将是一个非常好的年份，然后我们将开始CPI打印。我们又受到了一次重创。
I think what it says is really really credit to open door for being patient, right? Really risk off. This is really what it means to be risk off even if they saw the first few signs.
我觉得它的意思就是非常非常需要赞扬耐心开门，是吗？真的是从风险角度考虑。即使他们看到了最初的几个迹象，这就是真正的从风险角度思考。
We don't have to purchase data yet for what happened in the last three weeks but likely they didn't go crazy. They didn't just drop their spreads based on what they only listings that we have seen from January.
我们暂时不需要为过去三周发生的事情购买数据，但很可能他们没有做出令人疯狂的行为。他们并没有仅根据我们从一月份看到的房源列表来降低差价。
They didn't just drop their spreads and try to acquire as much as they can. They went slow. Otherwise, this could have been deadly again. Yeah. Spreads are either at the level or higher month on months every month over the past 6 months.
他们没有只是追求获取尽可能多的利润而忽略了风险，而是采取缓慢行动。否则，这可能再次导致灾难。是的，过去六个月的每个月，价差要么保持不变，要么逐月上涨。
I would say if that's what open door is doing, then Bravo to them. I think there's a part of me that's like, open door doesn't have a great track record of predicting macro, especially as it pertains to mortgage rates.
我想说，如果这就是Open Door的做法的话，那么他们真是棒极了。但我认为，Open Door在预测宏观经济，特别是涉及房贷利率方面并不擅长，这让我有所保留。
This seems like a particularly difficult thing to forecast but either way being risk off is working in their favor in the situation. I hope as someone who plans to buy a home in the next four to five months that mortgage rates come back down so that there's more affordability. We've said the data so far are not showing any deviation, really just continuation of the trend.
这似乎是一个特别难以预测的事情，但无论如何，在这种情况下，采取风险规避的做法是有利的。我希望作为计划在未来四到五个月内购房的人，房贷利率能回落，以使得购房更加可负担。我们已经说过，迄今为止的数据没有显示出任何偏离，实际上只是趋势的延续。
But we're going to keep on track and keep watching it in case it changes. I'm looking forward to your documentary about how you buy a home with open door next year months.
我们将继续关注并跟踪此事，以便及时应对任何更改。我期待着你明年几个月拍关于如何用Open Door购买房屋的纪录片。
I'm hoping to be sponsored by Open Door and so that they waive the 5% fee. It's going to be my first influencer gig so I'm pretty excited about applying for it. We'll see.
我希望能得到Open Door的赞助，以便他们免除5%的费用。这将是我第一次作为影响者开展工作，所以我对申请这份工作非常兴奋。我们拭目以待。
Yeah, talking about influences. That's a great segue, right? We've seen open door really ramp up their marketing. What does that mean?
是的，说起影响力。这是一个很好的过渡，对吧？我们看到“开门红”真的在加强他们的营销。这意味着什么？
What does that mean? Instagram influences, they started doing a lot of ads with influences, paid marketing on Instagram with influencers. We saw a little bit of that on TikTok last year which was kind of weird but probably some experimenting.
这句话的意思是什么？Instagram影响者们开始在Instagram上与影响者们一起做很多广告，进行有偿营销。我们在去年在TikTok上看到了一点这样的情况，有点奇怪，但可能是一些试验。
We see some more on Instagram right now. We also saw a new nationwide TV campaign which in my opinion is very excellent.
我们现在在Instagram上看到了更多内容。我们还看到了一项全国性的新电视广告活动，我认为非常优秀。
They're really focusing on those unexpected events that might consider where someone might consider taking a cash offer from a seller and really doubling down on that great execution my opinion. People are already seeing this on TV.
他们真的专注于那些可能会考虑接受卖方现金报价的意外事件，并在我看来真正加倍努力执行。人们已经在电视上看到了这一点。
意思是：他们在关注可能发生的意外事件，这些事件可能导致人们考虑接受卖家的现金报价，并且非常努力地执行此策略。此策略已经在电视上展示给人们看了。
The last one that was, oh, there's actually two. Let's start with the basketball ad. I'm not a basketball guy. I'm not a simple guy either so I have no idea what's happening here. From my understanding, last week there was drafting for basketball players and the team that opened the response and got the really important player and they forgot his name. Do you know his name? Alan Iverson. Are you talking about the Alan Iverson reference with moving versus practice? Are you talking about which, are you talking about Kyrie Herving was traded? Yes, they won the player to go to the Sons. So they were big green. They started sponsoring the Sons and now the Sons got an important player which will get more eyeballs which probably is a good deal for their sponsorship they got which is really great.
上一个广告是篮球广告，听说有两个，我们先说篮球广告吧。我不是篮球迷，但也不是个傻瓜，所以我真的不知道这个广告在说什么。据我所知，上周有篮球选秀，这个团队获得了一个非常重要的球员，但他们忘了他的名字。你知道他的名字吗？是艾伦·艾弗森。你说的是艾伦·艾弗森将比赛和训练相提并论的那个吗？还是你在谈论凯里·欧文被交易了？是的，他们希望这个球员去太阳队。所以他们大秀绿色，开始赞助太阳队，现在太阳队得到了一个重要的球员，将吸引更多观众，对他们的赞助来说可能是个不错的交易，这真的很棒。
The other one is the ad that they made that they released that day after which was really great timing where they made a best for reference that you just mentioned. You talk us through that you seem to know more about best fold in music. I mean, it was an interesting commercial and I think I think you're right. I think Kyrie Herving to the Sons will bring more eyeballs because he's a superstar player. He's also very controversial like he believes the earth is flat for example. Oh this guy oh no. Yeah. Oh he says fun. What do you mean either way it draws more attention.
另一个是他们制作并发布的广告，那天的时机真的非常好，他们制作了一个你刚提到的最佳参考。你向我们讲解了一些关于音乐中最好的折叠方法，我觉得这是一个有趣的广告，而且我认为你是对的。我认为凯里·欧文加入太阳队会带来更多的关注，因为他是一位超级巨星球员。他也非常具有争议性，比如他相信地球是扁平的。噢，这个家伙，不要啊。是的，他很有趣。无论如何，这都会引起更多的关注。
I don't care about the Sons basketball team but more attention on kind of the sponsors and the game means more eyeballs to open door and that's probably good. Yeah, and after the drafts they had to see really great 15 seconds ad for a first sensing like a basketball interview from the past that everybody knows, who has no idea about basketball. When they talk about all this place and they got traded need to move now where would they go who helps them move its open door. It went a little bit viral not totally viral but reasonably viral for open door it's a really good start and really timely production right. I really like that.
我不在意Sons篮球队，但更关注赞助商和比赛意味着更多的眼球打开大门，这可能是好的。是的，在选秀之后，他们必须看到真正不错的15秒广告，就像过去的篮球采访一样，每个不懂篮球的人都知道。当他们谈论所有这些地方，他们被交易了现在需要搬家去哪里，谁能帮助他们搬家，这就是开门。它在一定程度上变得病毒，虽然不完全，但对于开门来说是一个非常好的开始，而且非常及时的制作。我真的很喜欢。
And the last one, the Super Bowl act, my favorite, your favorite. So talk us for the what they're open to do with their Super Bowl act. Yeah, so open door made a billboard which sounds like the most pedestrian unimaginative marketing campaign. They put the billboard in near the stadium in Arizona for the Super Bowl and what they did with the billboard was really interesting. They converted the entire billboard into like a four sale sign or sold by sign that you might see in someone's yard.
最后一个，超级碗表演，我的最爱，你的最爱。因此，我们来谈谈他们在超级碗表演中要表现出的东西。是的，Open Door推出了一项听起来非常普通、缺乏想象力的营销活动——在亚利桑那州的超级碗体育场附近放置广告牌。他们在广告牌上做了很有趣的改变。他们将整个广告牌转化成一块“待售”或“出售”的招牌，就像你可能会在别人的院子里看到的那样。
So they just blew that up and made it this massive sign that said open door real estate's biggest game changer. And so when you look at it, I don't think it's ever been done before anything like that but it also just gets people talking. It's a clever ad and they probably didn't have to spend too much money on it. Certainly not the $10 million at cost for 30 second commercial on Super Bowl broadcast. So I was happy to see that clever use of marketing funds. And I think it was placed on the highway that you need to take to get from the airport on the day to the stadium, which is yeah, it's a great idea. I love scrappy ads and we should see more than that. Hopefully.
所以他们只是把它炸了，制作了一个巨大的标志，上面写着"Open Door Real Estate 的最大变革者"。所以当你看到它时，我觉得以前从来没有做过这样的事情，但它真的让人们谈论起来。这是一个巧妙的广告，他们可能并不需要花太多的钱。当然不是在超级碗广播中花费1000万美元的30秒广告费用。所以我很高兴看到这种巧妙地使用营销资金的方法。我想它是放置在从机场到球场的必经之路上的，这是一个伟大的想法。我喜欢敏捷的广告，希望我们能看到更多这样的广告。
Yeah. There's a really interesting podcast that I recommend with the new VP of marketing that joined a year ago, I think, and he did a lot of or his team did a lot of planning of this new ads. And I hope we will see more of that now that it actually makes sense for me to do ads again because they hopefully will acquire more homes.
嗯，有一个我推荐的非常有趣的播客，里面有新加入的市场营销副总裁，我想是一年前的事情，他和他的团队为这些新广告制定了很多计划。我希望现在让我重新投放广告是有意义的，因为他们希望能够购买更多的房屋，所以我们将会看到更多的广告。
All right, last topic. Next week, first day, it's finally time for open doors earnings school on February 23. First dimension is we will do Twitter spaces life A may again after the earnings. We don't know specific data time yet. Make sure to follow us on Twitter to not miss that. It's always a great time to talk to everybody and chat for the earnings. And second, you tie their really great article with all time list Q4 estimates as well as a Q1 sneak peak on data.io that everybody should read.
好的，最后一个话题。下周第一天，2月23日，终于到了开放门户学习赚钱的时间了。第一个维度是我们将在收益后再次举行Twitter直播。我们还没有具体的数据时间。请务必关注我们的Twitter，以免错过这个机会。和大家一起聊天交流是个非常好的时机。第二，您可以阅读一篇非常好的文章，其中包括所有时间列表Q4估计以及Q1数据预览，这是每个人都应该阅读的。
Tell us what you expect from next week's earnings school. Yeah, so I had four big expectations for open doors earnings call. I published this yesterday, this morning, this morning and wrote it the day before. But number one was the Zillow open door integration. So as expecting to get some news in the open door Zillow integration, as fate would have it, Zillow reported earnings today and they talked about the Zillow open door integration.
请告诉我们您对下周收益学校的期望。是的，我对开放门户的收益电话有四个很大的期望。我昨天、今天早上和前一天发布了这个期望清单。但第一条期望是Zillow开放门户的整合。因此，我期望在开放门户Zillow整合方面获得一些消息。正如命运将会安排的那样，Zillow今天发布了财报，他们谈到了Zillow开放门户的整合。
But I still think hearing open doors perspective on it, how it's going, what the cadence of new market launches is going to look like and ideally what the unit economics are for that type of partnership. Single most important question there, which if you're an analyst and you're listening to this, please ask if there's ever going to be a third party integration with this partnership because that is a critical element and it might be how now President Eric Wu plans to get to the almost impossible, seeming 30% of total transactions for the third party marketplace because that could do it.
尽管如此，我仍认为听取开放式门户的观点很重要，了解它正在进行的情况，新市场推出的节奏将是什么样子，理想的情况下，这种合作伙伴的单元经济学是怎样的。这里最重要的问题是，如果你是分析师，并且正在收听此次讲话，请问是否会与第三方进行集成，因为这是关键的因素，它可能是现任总裁Eric Wu打算实现第三方市场总交易额几乎不可能的30%的方式，因为这可能会实现它。
Number two, the pace of third party marketplace scaling still think that this is the most important product line for open door right now because of the unit economics. Third party marketplace is only active in Texas right now and not even in all of open doors Texas markets. And so hearing them comment on what the pace of that scale is going to be and how many transactions are going to funnel into that marketplace as we move forward. Again, they said 30% of transactions by the end of 2023 were currently less than 1%. So how are we going to make that jump within a year for a product that's never existed that consumers don't know anything about? I'm not sure, but any insight on that I think would be really helpful.
第二点，第三方市场规模扩展的步伐仍然认为这是开放门户现在最重要的产品线，因为它的单位经济效益。第三方市场目前仅在德克萨斯州活跃，甚至还没有覆盖开放门户在德克萨斯州的所有市场。因此，听到他们评价市场规模的步伐以及随着我们向前推进，有多少交易会涌入那个市场。再次强调，他们说2023年底30%的交易量目前还不到1%。那么，我们如何在一年内实现从未存在的产品和消费者一无所知的情况下实现这种跨越？我不确定，但任何有关此事的见解我认为都会非常有帮助。
Number three, when is open door going to begin acquiring more homes and are they going to begin acquiring more homes because currently they're at the lowest volume member which we've hammered hammered on about for a while. I still think that for open door to for me to get more constructive on the open door thesis as we move farther into 2023, open door has to acquire more homes because if they don't they can't pay fixed costs and they can't they can't sell homes. And so they're at the point now where they have fewer homes listed then they're going to sell in the quarter.
第三个问题是，开放式门是什么时候开始收购更多的住宅，他们是否会开始收购更多的住宅，因为目前他们是我们长时间以来一直强调的最低交易量成员。我仍然认为，随着我们进入2023年，如果开放式门不收购更多住宅，我无法对开放式门的投资论持乐观态度，因为如果他们不这样做，他们无法支付固定成本，也无法销售住宅。因此，他们现在面临的问题是，他们上市的住宅数量比他们在本季度销售的住宅还要少。
And so I think I think that's an important thing to internalize and I'm talking about Q1 right. It's an important thing to internalize because the number of homes listed is a forward indicator for sales right. And so if they have fewer homes listed right now and homes that they're going to sell in the quarter that means that sales are going to deteriorate from here on out at least until they acquire more homes and so this is the critical piece of open doors business model for their first party business.
我认为这是一个需要深刻理解的重要事情，我说的是第一季度。这个需要深刻理解是因为已经上市的房屋数量是预测销售的先行指标。所以如果他们现在上市的房屋少，并且在这个季度即将销售的房屋数量也少，这意味着销售将从现在开始恶化，至少在他们获得更多房屋之前是这样的。这是Open Door第一方业务模型的关键。
And then last but not least we talked about doing some detective work in our discord about the tax proper acquisition which is a YC company that opened or we thought open door acquired recently because it helps with the collection of property taxes and home vulnerabilities and there was a job listing about it opened or announced over the past week that they did in fact acquire it. And so it'd be great to hear how they plan to integrate that product suite particularly in their enterprise product. And so any any color this is Sebastian's favorite thing any color that we can get about open doors enterprise product would make him very happy and that makes me happy as his partner. So we need to make that last.
最后但同样重要的是，我们讨论了在我们的Discord中进行一些侦探工作，了解税收适当收购，这是一个YC公司，它帮助收集财产税和家庭漏洞的信息。我们认为开放门最近已经收购了它，因为有一份招聘广告是在过去的一周内开放或宣布的。因此，了解他们计划如何整合该产品套件，特别是在他们的企业产品中，将是很好的。这是Sebastian最喜欢的事情，所以如果我们能获得任何关于开放门企业产品的信息，我们将非常高兴，这也使我作为他的合作伙伴感到高兴。因此，我们需要把这个话题放在最后。
That's it. I got one last point. It would be great to hear about the buy with open door action. So again, this court detective work we saw some LinkedIn listings for where open doors hiring tour assistance for buy with open door.
我还有一个最后的要点。很想听听关于开放大门买房的情况。我们在 LinkedIn 上看到过一些招聘信息，OpenDoor正在雇用导游来帮助购买开放大门的房屋，希望能够详细了解这方面的情况。
The first post was for five new markets the next one was for free new markets and it was mentioned that those are launching shortly. That means open or is launching by with open door or BOW in eight new markets going to a total of 27 which is a pretty crazy investment if you ask me for what position they're in right now.
第一篇文章介绍了五个新市场，第二篇文章介绍了免费的新市场，并提到这些市场即将推出。这意味着Open或Open Door或BOW将在八个新市场启动，总计27个市场，如果你问我他们现在处于什么位置，这是一笔相当疯狂的投资。
That should mean they're doing pretty well with it or they expect this investment to pay off. I would be lost for them to talk about this. The only way the only thing they mentioned is in their investor presentation in Q1 2022. They broke out that this is in another service that they expect to attach that has like a contribution margin of like seven hundred five hundred dollars which is like two percent the home prices back then when it's mature.
这应该意味着他们在这方面做得相当不错，或者他们期望这项投资会有回报。如果他们谈论这个的话，我会感到丈二和尚摸不着头脑。唯一的方式是在他们2022年第一季度的投资者演示中提到了这件事。他们明确表示，这是另一项服务，他们希望能够附加它，其贡献利润率约为七百至五百美元，相当于当时房屋价格的2%左右。
Where are we that how many homes are they selling? I think they announced as well that they had like a one billion dollar GMV run rate Q2 last year. Are we at two billion right now where we can we break this out in the financials. Thing with open rent apprists. One more breaking out on how other business lancers doing if they're ready for that would be really great that would give us a lot more insight on how open or is doing with things that are not first part of sales. Since we cannot observe those there's not much we can track with the other services.
我们现在在哪里，他们正在销售多少房屋？我想他们也宣布了去年Q2达到了10亿美元GMV的运营速度。我们现在是否已经达到了20亿，我们能否在财务报表中将其分解开。关于Open Rent Apprists这件事情，我们需要更多地了解其他业务代理商的情况，如果他们准备好了，那将是非常棒的，这将使我们对Open或者不是销售的事情有更多的了解。由于我们无法观察到这些，所以我们很难追踪其他服务的情况。
So we have rely on data from open door. Yeah, I think we should do a podcast about by with open door in the future. Yeah, maybe not during earnings but after that I think just the economics of that is something that are really important to spell out. Yeah, power buyers. We should definitely do that and maybe even get Mike Delvri, donor podcast who invented the term power buyer. He seems to be very knowledgeable about that. Let's see.
所以我们必须依靠来自开放门户的数据。是的，我认为我们应该在未来的播客中与开放门户合作。也许不是在收益报告期间，但在那之后，我认为这件事的经济学意义是非常重要的，值得强调。是的，那些强大的买家们。我们一定要做这件事，甚至可能会让 Mike Delvri 参加我们的播客，他发明了"强大的买家"这个词。他似乎对这个领域非常了解。让我们看看。
All right. If you want to know what we think Q4 will look like, you need to make sure to go to data door that I own right now and with the newest articles are it's a item subscriber article but it's really worth it. We are doing this now for the first complete year profession. We're right.
好的。如果你想知道我们认为第四季度会是什么样子，你需要确保去我现在拥有的数据门，查看最新的文章。虽然这是一篇付费文章，但它真的很值得。我们正在进行我们的第一年专业的完整计划。我们是正确的。
Yep. How accurate. I think we are within 5% for all of the core KPIs that we estimate for the entire year. So our estimates have come in within 5% of actual the entire year. And then the other thing that I think is really fascinating is open door always gives guidance during their earnings call.
没错，非常准确。我认为我们整年估计的核心KPIs精度都在5%以内。因此，我们的估计整年都与实际相差不到5%。另外一个我认为非常有趣的事情是，Open Door总是在他们的收益电话中给出指导。
And usually at the time that open door gives guidance for the next quarter, we've already had estimates for that quarter for about two to four weeks. And I think what's most interesting about that is our estimates two to four weeks before the earnings call are more accurate than or have been more accurate than open doors own guidance.
通常在公布下一个季度指引的时候，我们已经进行了大约两到四个星期的预估。我认为最有趣的是，我们在盈利电话会议之前的两到四个星期的估计比Open Door自己的指引更加准确。
Which is kind of doesn't make a lot of sense, right? But most of the time when open door provides guidance for the quarter, Sebastian and I look at each other like not even close. It's not even close to what they're actually going to do based on the data that we see.
这有点说不清楚，对吧？但大多数情况下，当Open Door为这个季度提供指导时，Sebastian和我会看着彼此，表示并不准确。根据我们看到的数据，它们与他们实际将要做的事情完全不一样。
So I think real estate data, our public, if you know where to look and you obsess a little bit over it and we've done that. And so I think we've created a model with everyone's support and it's a small community, but it's a strong one. And I think we've really created a product that people love and we're committed to continue improving it and strengthening it.
我认为房地产数据是我们公众所需要的，如果你知道该在哪里寻找，并对此有点着迷，我们已经做到了这一点。因此，我认为我们已经得到了每个人的支持，并创建了一个小而强大的社区。我认为我们真正创造了人们喜爱的产品，并致力于不断改进和加强它。
Yes, so make sure to join us in the discord join the community where almost we're for over 700 people are thinking on the discord now. Just really cool. And they're doing a lot of detective work. It's all coming from the community, which is really cool. Make sure to subscribe and like this video.
一定要加入我们的Discord群体，这是一个拥有700多人的社区，他们正在进行非常酷的侦探工作，我们希望加入更多人。而且这些都是社区成员共同完成的，非常不错。记得订阅和点赞这个视频。
So we can continue doing this interviews. And I said, we're not doing any interviews yet. We continue doing this podcast and hopefully get some interviews. And yeah, I think that's it for this week. We're going to see you next week in a live Twitter spaces and then probably do another podcast the week after summarizing earnings.
所以我们可以继续进行这些采访。然后我说，我们还没有做任何采访。我们将继续制作这个播客，并希望能够得到一些采访。好了，我想这就是本周的全部内容。下周我们会在一个直播的 Twitter 空间里见到你们，然后可能在第二周做另一个播客，概括收益情况。
All right, perfect. See you next week.
好的，完美。下周见。