Opendoor's Shocking Q4 Result and Guidance, Daniel Morillo resigning - Podcast #6
发布时间 2023-02-27 20:39:53 来源
Hello and welcome to a new episode of the Data Door FrontPorge podcast. We have a packed show today after a very surprising or in some ways unsurprising, but in other ways, very surprising earnings.
大家好，欢迎来到 Data Door FrontPorge 的新一期播客节目。今天的节目内容非常丰富，因为我们的业绩令人惊讶，或者在某种程度上不足为奇，但在其他方面却非常惊人。
Last week, Open Door reported Q4 2022 earnings and the result was in some ways different than what we expected. Tana, August 3. Yeah. So Thursday, Open Door reported after the close. I think, you know, for us throughout 2022, when we estimated for the quarter, we felt pretty good across the board for all the KPIs that we measure. And we released our own internal estimates on Wednesday before the earnings.
上周，Open Door报告了2022年第四季度的收益情况，其结果在某些方面与我们预期不同。Tana，8月3日。对于我们来说，整个2022年，我们估计这个季度时，所有KPI衡量标准都表现得相当不错。在谈到财报之前的周三，我们发布了自己内部的估计。周四财报公布后，我们发现情况并非完全符合我们的预期。
I think we came in pretty much exactly in line for things like home sold and revenue, as well as home's purchased, where we were a little bit different was actually Gross margins, which I think surprised us. Open Door actually posted a just the Gross margins of negative 3.2%. You were expecting somewhere closer to negative 1%, and in fact, negative 1.6% was the lowest end of our range. And so I think that has prompted a lot of research on our part over this past weekend to investigate the reasons why there might be such a discrepancy between observed and estimated and actual. And I think we have some ideas.
我认为我们在家庭出售、收入以及购买房屋等方面的表现与预期相当，其中我们的差异在于毛利率，这让我们感到惊讶。开放门户实际上发布了负3.2%的毛利率，你预计会在负1%左右，实际上，负1.6%是我们范围中最低的。因此，我想这促使我们在上周末进行了大量研究，以调查可能导致观察和估计以及实际之间出现如此大差异的原因。我认为我们有一些想法。
For context, like Q4, in terms of housing market, was a really difficult quarter. If you look at the sales numbers that are coming out now, we're like, Q4 and in pro January, the home data sales numbers, it was really depressing volume. So Open Door was likely to, likely trying to move homes. And with that, might have given more concessions than we kind of observed in the data.
就像Q4那样，在住房市场方面，是一个非常困难的季度。如果你看目前公布的住宅销售数字，我们发现Q4和1月份的房屋销售数据，销售量是真的很低。因此，Open Door很可能正在试图出售房屋。因此，他们可能会提供更多比我们观察到的数据中更多的优惠措施。
Yeah, I think there's three possible explanations for the discrepancy in the data. One is that our data are wrong. And I think to sort of look into that, we have north of 130,000 transactions for Open Door in the database. We have sales estimates going back 20 plus quarters. And I think what we've seen from the data is actually that we're always within 5%. Less than 100 basis points at most of gross margin in all of those quarters. So our methodology, we feel pretty strong about. And I think that that's reflected in the fact that we nailed home sold revenue, home sales purchase, etc. and we did that in all the other quarters that we've done. We've done this as a business.
是的，我认为有三种可能的解释来解释数据的不一致。第一种是我们的数据错误。我们在数据库中收集了超过13万笔“开门红”交易，并进行了超过20个季度的销售预估。从数据中得出的结果是，我们在所有季度中的总毛利润都是在5%以内，最多不到100个基点。因此我们对于我们的方法感到相当有信心。我们的成功反映在我们精确地核算了“开门红”销售收入、购买销售收入等数据的上。
And so that's option one. Option two is that there was an outsized effect, margin drag from non disclosure states. And so our states where sales data are not publicly available. And so states like Texas, Utah, for example, are states where the sold price of a home is not public information.
因此，这就是第一种选择。第二个选择是，存在过大的影响，即来自未公开销售数据的州造成的边际拖累。因此，在我们的一些州中，销售数据并不公开，比如德克萨斯州、犹他州等，这些州的房屋售价不是公共信息。
And so therefore we have no visibility into the sales margins or sales price of home sold in those markets. And in Q4, for example, one fourth of all Open Door transactions were in these non disclosure states or markets. And so that means that we only had visibility into 75% of Open Door sales transactions.
因此，我们无法看到在那些市场销售的房屋的销售利润或销售价格。例如，在第四季度，开放之门的四分之一交易是在这些不公开披露的州或市场进行的。这意味着我们只能看到开放之门销售交易的75％。
But if you kind of walk that back and think about how bad those markets would have to perform to create the delta between our estimated negative 1.1 margins and Open Door's actual negative 3.2 margins, markets like Texas would have had to be the worst markets in Open Door's entire category. Right? They would have to be almost as bad as San Francisco, Worst and Phoenix, Worst and Las Vegas. And if you look at the metrics in those markets, it just doesn't make much sense. Right?
但是，如果你稍微往回走一步，思考一下市场表现的糟糕程度，才能清楚地看出我们估计的负1.1毛利和Open Door实际的负3.2毛利之间的差距。像德克萨斯这样的市场，必须是Open Door整个类别中最糟糕的市场之一。对吧？它们几乎要和三藩市、菲尼克斯、以及拉斯维加斯等最糟糕的市场一样糟糕。而且如果你看看这些市场的指标，它们很难有太多意义。对吧？
Like the price cuts in markets like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, Open Door's largest two markets in Texas are actually really low. Right? They have all of the metrics of top markets for Open Door. And that's sort of the proxy that we've been using for Texas markets is think like price cut, percent pending, et cetera.
就像在达拉斯、沃思堡和休斯顿等市场的降价一样，Open Door在德州最大的两个市场的价格实际上非常低。它们所有的指标都符合Open Door顶级市场的要求。这种情况已成为我们对德克萨斯州市场的一种代理，就好像考虑价格降幅、待售百分比等等。
As additional context, just in case people are confused why we have stayed on price cuts, but not on their actual margins. Listing stator is actually wearable. So if a home sales on the open market, we can kind of guess based on the last listed price, sales price in the MLS what the actual sales price was. But the purchase prices are not so Open Door doesn't purchase on the open market. They buy this privately from sellers. That is not reported in the deed data. So there's only six data on their purchase price.
为了进一步说明，以防人们对我们坚持降价而非实际利润感到困惑。列出鼓风机是可以磨损的。因此，如果在公开市场上销售房屋，我们可以根据上次列出的价格、MLS的销售价格来猜测实际销售价格。但购买价格并非如此，Open Door不是在公开市场上购买的，他们从卖家那里以私人方式购买。这在契约数据中没有报告。因此，他们的购买价格只有六个数据。
We see their listing prices. We see how many price cuts they are making until the home sells. And that's what you're saying is way better than a market like Phoenix. So it's unlikely that the margin is anywhere close as negative as Phoenix or San Francisco. Right. Like Phoenix and San Francisco have mean price cuts maybe in the five plus percent range per home, whereas Dallas, Fort Worth, for example, Open Door's largest market in Texas is real is closer to 2%, right, which is even better than a market like Atlanta, which is perennial.
我们看到他们的房屋出售价格，看到他们对价格的修改次数，直到房屋售出。你所说的这种市场比凤凰城这样的市场要好得多。因此，Open Door在达拉斯，Fort Worth等市场的利润可能并不像在凤凰城或旧金山市场那样负面。例如，Open Door在德克萨斯州最大的市场，达拉斯，Fort Worth市场的家庭平均降价幅度约为2％，而不像亚特兰大市场那样平均大约5％以上。
Leave one of Open Door's stronger mark. Basically what I'm saying is the Texas markets outside of Austin, Austin's pretty bad. But Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, 80% of Open Door's Texas business all have the metrics of markets with positive unit economics. And so that brings us to option number three to explain this delta or this discrepancy.
留下开放门户的强烈印象之一。基本上我是在说，奥斯汀以外的德克萨斯市场很好，奥斯汀很糟糕。但是达拉斯、沃思堡、休斯顿、圣安东尼奥，这四个城市80%的Open Door 德克萨斯业务都有市场积极单元经济指标。因此，这就引出了我们解释这种差异的第三种选择。
And that's that Open Door is granting seller or buyer credits to increase the velocity of transactions. And there's precedence for this, right, that happened, for example, at the end of September, so the end of Q3 so that Open Door would be able to, you know, close on more sales, offload more of this Q2 inventory. And there's actually an economic benefit for it, right, every day that Open Door owns these Q2 homes that are never going to make a profit.
Open Door将向卖家或买家提供信贷，以提高交易速度。这种做法已经有先例，例如在9月底，也就是第三季度结束时发生过这种情况，这使得Open Door能够更多地完成销售，卸货更多第二季度的库存。实际上，这样做还有经济上的好处，每天Open Door拥有这些永远不能盈利的第二季度住房。
Open Door is paying property tax, HOA, right, maintenance fees, selling fees, marketing, all the above. And so offloading this inventory as quickly as possible is a benefit to Open Door. And so it makes sense to incentivize these sales. The problem with this as an explanation is it's completely invisible to data methodology, right? It's invisible to scraping.
Open Door公司正在支付财产税、物业所有者协会费、维护费、销售费用、营销费用，以及以上所有费用。因此，尽快卸下这些库存对于Open Door公司有利。因此，激励这些销售是有意义的。但这个解释的问题是它完全看不到数据方法论，对于爬虫来说也是看不到的。
And so it creates a lot of variability in collecting data. And I think that we saw that for Q4, the gross margin results were 200 basis points worse than expected. And we certainly saw it for Q1 where Open Door guided for even worse gross margins than Q4. And we're seeing an improvement in margins in Q1. So I think that definitely bears discussion as well. Yeah.
因此，这在收集数据方面会产生很多的变数。我认为，我们可以看到，Q4的毛利率结果比预期要差200个基点。而且，我们在Q1中也看到了这一点，Open Door指导的毛利率甚至比Q4更糟。而我们正在看到Q1的利润率有所改善。因此，我认为这肯定值得讨论。
And what you mentioned, what's different from Q3 is that they announced what kind of commission bonuses they give to agents that we could incorporate that into our estimates. This time we didn't even know this was going on. There was some reports on Reddit, but you'd never know how widespread it is. If they only go giving seller credits on a few homes, they always give seller credits on a few homes or what the scale was and what the data shows is the scale of seller credits and rate buy downs was probably quite big.
你提到的与Q3不同的是他们公布了给经纪人的佣金奖励方式，我们可以把这个因素纳入我们的估算中。但这一次我们甚至不知道这件事发生了。Reddit上有些报道，但你永远不知道它有多普及。如果他们只在一些房屋上给卖家信贷，那么他们一直在给一些房屋卖家信贷，或者数据显示卖家信贷和购买降价的规模可能很大。
Yeah, but that brings us to the last point that you mentioned is like the Q1 guidance is not at all what we are seeing the data for Q1 so far. Q1 has been quite an impressive quarter so far, right? Yeah.
没错，但这就带我们到了最后一个点，就是你提到的Q1指引与目前Q1的数据完全不符。到目前为止，Q1已经是相当令人印象深刻的一个季度了，对吧？是的。
So we've seen pretty much week on week with the exception of maybe two weeks, an improvement in open doors gross margin since mid-November, right? Like every week it's it's it's increased. The trend is going like this.
我们看到自11月中旬以来，除了可能两个星期，每个星期开门的总毛利润都有所提高，对吧？每周都有增长，这趋势就是这样。
So mid-November, middle of Q4, right? And now we're at the end of February, so two thirds of the way through Q1. You were expecting open door to guide for positive gross margins in Q1 and then they turned around and guided for negative 5% gross margins, which is worse than their guidance for Q4. For Q4, they guided negative 4.4%.
所以，现在是11月中旬，Q4的中间，对吧？现在已经到了二月底了，也就是Q1的三分之二。你预计开门会引导Q1实现正整毛利，然而他们却提出了负5%的毛利率，比Q4的指引更糟糕。对于Q4，他们的指引是负4.4%。
They posted negative 3.2. Now for Q1, they're guiding for negative 5%. It's just the discrepancy doesn't make sense and I think that this is another reason why we're gravitating towards this explanation that open doors offering these seller credits to ensure that these transactions happen.
他们发布了-3.2的负面指引。现在Q1，他们的指引是负5%。只是这种差异没有意义，我觉得这是我们倾向于这种解释的另一个原因，即开放的门提供卖家信用来确保这些交易发生。
I think another piece of data to support that point is that in Q4, 90% of open door sales were the Q2 offer cohort. In Q1, 60% of open door sales are from the Q2 offer cohort. But it's important to understand that for any given cohort of homes, the first homes that you sell are the best homes in the cohort. We've talked about this in the past, the lemon problem. The farther along you get into that cohort, the deeper you get, the worse those homes become. And so, ostensibly, you're in a situation where in Q1 and Q2, selling off these remnant Q2 offer cohort homes is going to require more incentives, more work. And it potentially lower margins.
我认为支持这一观点的另一个数据是，在第四季度，90%的Open Door销售来自Q2推出的同一组房产。在第一季度，60%的Open Door销售来自Q2推出的同一组房产。但是重要的是要理解，对于任何一组房屋，你出售的第一批房屋是最好的。我们过去谈过这个问题，即“柠檬问题”。随着你进入这一组房产的深处，那些房屋会变得越来越糟糕。因此，可以假设在Q1和Q2，卖掉这些剩余的Q2推出的房屋将需要更多的激励措施和更多的工作，并且可能会降低利润率。
Ideally, we'd see this in the actual bot and sold margin data, but it seems like open door is doing this sort of just with the seller. And so, the only people that know the actual value are open door themselves and the individual trans actor. I think what's important to mention is this is not necessarily worse than what they have in write down in Q3, right?
理想情况下，我们希望在实际的机器人和售出保证金数据中看到这一点，但看起来open door只是在与卖家进行这种类型的交易。因此，只有open door自己和个体交易者知道实际价值。我认为需要提到的重要一点是，这不一定比他们在Q3写下的更糟糕，对吧？
They made it in terms of gap numbers, they made a huge write down in Q3 saying, hey, all the homes we have on our books from your Q2 offer cohort say will be massively negative, negative growth margins. What we expected is that this was a very conservative outlook and because it was such a massive write-off, did we will see kind of advancing out more, especially gap numbers, which was also worse than expected in Q1. And now, there's a lot of hope out there that so how write down work, I guess we have to explain it, write down only account for negative margins.
他们用间隙数字来计算，他们在Q3做了一个巨大的减记，意思是，嘿，我们从你们的Q2报价队列中看到的所有房屋都将是非常负面的，具有负增长率。我们本来预计这是一个非常保守的前景，因为这是如此巨大的减记，我们将看到更多的提前布局，特别是间隙数字，这也比Q1预期更糟。现在，有很多希望，所以如何减记工作，我想我们必须解释一下，减记只计算负利润率。
So they are forecasting or trying to anticipate what price all those homes they have on the books will sell and they take all the negative growth margins of those homes and take them as a write down. It excludes all the homes they might make money on. So those would balance it out and maybe push them into a more positive gap accounting because write down is only a just inventory values negatively, you never increased it about.
因此，他们在预测或试图预测他们账面上所有房屋的销售价格，并且他们会将这些房屋的所有负增长毛利润作为减值准备。这不包括他们可能赚钱的所有房屋。因此，这些房屋会相互抵消，可能使他们进入更积极的差额会计模式，因为减值准备只是对库存价值的负面影响，而你从不增加它。
So now looking to Q1, which will report in May, they will have a large or majority of their homes sold, right? And at that point, we can see is was it worse than they expected in Q3 or was it as about this they expected? Right. And I think it's also important to emphasize too is it's February the 26th right now, right?
现在我们看一下第一季度，季报将在五月份发布，他们会卖掉大部分或者绝大部分的房屋，对吧？届时我们可以看到第三季度的表现是否比他们预期的更糟糕，或者大致如他们所料。对吧。同时，我认为也很重要的一点是现在是2月26日，对吧？
And so there's one month left in Q1, but for real estate data, we have access like through data door, we have access to pending data. And so for us, the quarter is already over, right? We already know all of the transactions that are going to happen in the quarter. We know the gross margins, we know the revenue, we know, you know what I mean? We have all of the data basically except for the number of homes purchased.
所以第一季度只剩一个月了，但对于房地产数据，我们可以透过数据门获得待定数据。因此，对于我们来说，这个季度已经结束了，对吗？我们已经知道所有在这个季度中将要发生的交易。我们知道毛利率、收入、你知道我的意思吧？除了购买房屋的数量以外，我们基本上已经获得了所有的数据。
And so for us, knowing all these data and seeing open doors guidance for the quarter, it's really hard to reconcile the differences because they're huge. It's an enormous difference between what we're seeing in the data and what open door guided for. And I think that that's been one of the more shocking parts of receiving the data and also doing the research this weekend that kind of led to this podcast.
对我们来说，了解所有这些数据，看到本季度的开放指导，很难协调这些差异，因为它们非常大。我们在数据中看到的与开放指导的差距巨大。我认为这是接收数据以及进行本周末的研究并导致本播客的过程中最令人震惊的部分之一。
And it's not even just on the bottom line, even the top line is quite surprising, right? Here it goes. So, yeah, we will, I guess, see in the next few weeks as those pending close as well as when Q1 is announced how different it is.
这并不仅限于底线，就算是顶线也非常令人惊讶，对吧？所以，在接下来的几周里，随着那些未决的问题得到解决，以及 Q1 报告公布之后，我们将会看到有何不同。
This is like some form of sand bagging to come out in Q1 with maybe a more surprising outcome. It would be a strange strategy. You don't want to be sand bagging at the point where they are right now. But maybe that's part of it. I hope that's not a strategy because I, yeah, I would not recommend that one.
这就像以一种所谓的缓兵之计在第一季度出现，也许会有更令人惊喜的结果。这将是一种奇怪的策略。现在他们不应该要故意虚报业绩。但也许这就是他们的一部分策略。我希望这不是策略，因为我不建议这样做。
But knowing theory, I, or at least knowing kind of about her style and everything she seems kind of like a no nonsense type person. Obviously she's been responsible probably for the majority of the estimate so far throughout her tenure as open doors, CFO and now C, CEO. And they've always sand bagged a bit. But this would be, this would be more than we're okay with, right? This is, this isn't like a beaten raise kind of situation. This is, this is like a huge departure from what the data say. Yep.
但是，虽然我只是知道一些她的风格和种类，我知道她是一个讲真话的人。很显然，她在作为Open Doors的CFO和现任CEO任期中，可能已经对大部分估算负责。他们总是有点保守估算。但是，这次情况不同，我们无法接受这种程度的离谱。这不是一个Beat Estimate的情况，而是数据说话的巨大偏差。是的。
Talking about some of the other things that carry, try to guide towers, the next few, two quarters. One question that always came up is about their acquisition pace. When we have been talking since the end of last year, begin of this year is, openly has massively reduced the number of homes they're purchasing. We are done to like a few hundred homes a week. I think they're listing about 200 homes consistently over the last few.
谈到一些其他的拥有物，比如引导塔，接下来的几个季度。一个经常被提出的问题是他们的收购速度。自从去年末开始谈论，今年初以来，他们公开地大幅减少了购买房屋的数量。现在每周只有几百套房子。过去几周中，他们一直稳定地上市了约200套房屋。
One hundred homes a week in acquisition volume right now. They mentioned that we should expect a pickup in volume as we move through the second quarter. So I guess we won't see much anymore in the Q1 data for context. Our purchase data is basically four weeks delayed. It takes four to six weeks to complete the report data to county assessors. There's no forward looking data. We can look at the findings. So we just have to wait it out. That means we probably won't see anything, any increase until the end of April, right? That's what they're kind of hinting towards.
目前，我们每周的房屋收购量为100套。他们提到，随着我们进入第二季度，我们应该期待增加收购量。因此我猜我们在第一季度的数据中不会看到太多有意义的内容了。我们的购买数据基本上会延迟四周。需要四到六周的时间来完成向县评估员的报告数据。没有前瞻性数据。我们只能看到现有的发现。所以我们只能等待。这意味着直到四月底我们可能不会看到任何增长，对吧？这是他们暗示的。
They also talked a little bit about them increasing or decreasing spreads a little bit. I guess they saw some of that home home activity, home size activity going a lot better than they seasonally expected in January and cut down on spreads. But they also said, hey, as soon as we're seeing that data turn around, we're going to fix back up there. So there's not a lot of hope for going back into a growth mode anytime soon.
他们还稍微谈了一下关于他们增加或减小赛季间差价的问题。我想他们看到一些家庭活动和家庭规模活动在1月份比季节期望的好了很多，因此缩小了差价。但他们也说，一旦我们看到这些数据有所改变，我们就会重新调整差价。因此不会很快回到增长模式中，希望不大。
That's kind of gets us to the next topic, which is they talked about what the past deposited to adjusted net income is and when that might happen. So what they carefully talked about is becoming adjusted net income positive by mid 2024 with revenue run rate of $10 billion, which is again, a hat scratcher because we are right now on a higher revenue run rate than tell them billion dollar and know we're close there.
这有点引出了下一个话题，就是他们谈论过去对调整后净收入的贡献以及何时会发生这种情况。因此，他们谨慎地讨论了在2024年年中实现调整后净收入为正，并以100亿美元的收入水平为目标，这让人感到有些困惑，因为我们现在的收入水平比100亿美元高，但我们还没有接近那里。
And probably indicates that the next quarters of the Q1 will be not even close to the same revenue that aligns with the purchase data that we are seeing. They just won't be enough homes to sell. And probably they're going to increase turrets where they were at scale again of $10 billion run rate, which they say is basically the scale that were in 2019 by mid 2024.
这句话的意思是，很可能表明第一季度后几个季度的营收将远不如我们看到的购买数据相符合。这是因为售卖的房屋数量不足。而且很可能他们会在中期重新达到每年100亿美元的规模，这基本上是他们在2019年的规模，战斗机将增加。
Yeah, and I think the important point here is that revenue doesn't matter. For open-door revenue never mattered. It never contributed to stock price. When open-door had 5 billion revenue per quarter, the stock price was just falling. It was in freefall. No one cares about revenue for open-door because it's considered low-quality revenue. And so I, as a shareholder, am not so much worried with open-door guiding for lower revenue. What I'm most interested in is them finding a profitable business.
是的，我认为这里的重要点是收入并不重要。对于Open door来说，收入从来没有影响过股价。即使Open door每个季度有50亿美元的收入，股价也在自由落体中。在Open door被认为是低质量收入的情况下，没有人会关心收入。因此，作为股东，我不太担心Open door预期收入更低。我最感兴趣的是他们找到一个盈利的业务。
And so I don't care if it's 2 billion in revenue because there's no multiples that open-door is being valued on that are based on revenue, right? It's all about profitability, especially in this down market. And so if open-door confines to a profitable business somewhere in that space, then I'm all for it, even if it's at the lower.
所以我并不在意Open-door的收入是否达到了20亿，因为它的估值并不是基于收入的倍数。在这个困难的市场环境下，盈利能力才是最重要的。因此，只要Open-door能在这个领域内保持有利可图的业务，我就支持它，即使这意味着它的估值会稍低一些。
I mean, I remember we were talking about this last year and the year before when it seemed like this housing market would go forever that 40 billion revenue a year didn't seem unreasonable, right? They're barely scratching the surface of penetration in the United States. If I buyers got to 10%, for example, that's a $600 billion business in a year like 2024.
我的意思是，我记得去年和前年我们在讨论这个话题时，似乎这个房地产市场会一直持续下去，那年收入达到400亿美元似乎并不过分，对吧？他们在美国市场上的渗透率还远远不够。如果例如买家占到了10％，在2024年这将是一个价值6000亿美元的市场。
Yeah, but basically what they're telling us with that is that they expect drastically change their cost structure, because adjusted net income positive is something we've only seen at $20 plus billion in revenue, which would be double what they are saying, expecting for next year. And the explanation here was that they are working on removing 100 business points of margin of actual costs from the system. There wasn't much more explanation to that.
他们告诉我们的基本上是，他们希望大幅改变他们的成本结构，因为调整后的净收入是积极的，这只是我们只在收入达到200亿美元以上时看到过的，而他们预计的收入将只有此数字的一半。这样做的解释是，他们正在努力从系统中减少100个业务点的实际成本。关于此事并没有更多的解释。
There could be things that they were pushing out for a long time because they thought they can scale things with people instead of automation that they're now identifying and it's the right time to solve them. It could be meaning because they're reducing acquisitions and sales, they're going to need a lot less. That's a lot of stuff that is variable versus people that they actually hire, right? It could be part of that, but still has crazy, even with 100 basis points cuts, it's kind of we're not getting to adjusted income with 10 billion in revenue. So there's a little bit of a crash mark, especially since Kerry said there's not a lot of assumptions with asset light, capital light, parts of the business contributing to that. So it's not going to be the third party marketplace. It's not going to be by with open door or a list of open door that makes up a big amount to get there.
可能存在一些长期推动的事情，因为他们认为可以通过增加员工数量来扩展业务，而不是采用自动化，现在他们已经识别到这些问题，并且是解决它们的最佳时机。这可能意味着他们减少了收购和销售，因此他们需要的人手会少很多。这是与实际雇用的员工相比变量很多的东西，对吧？这可能是其中的一部分，但即使进行了100个基点的调整，仍然有很多疯狂的东西，我们不会达到100亿收入的调整后收入。所以还是有一些崩盘的标记，特别是因为Kerry说，基于资产轻，资本轻的业务贡献不多。它不会是第三方市场。它不会是由open door或open door列表组成的大笔贡献来实现这一目标。
Yeah. Yeah, that's true. And as you said, she didn't really outline much in the way of specific policies or measures that we're going to lower costs so substantially. I think to you in me it makes sense, right? Open door was positioned for hyper growth mode. Basically, since they went public, they were scaling as rapidly as possible. They were buying as many homes as possible. They were able to push Zillow off a ledge because of that tactic.
是的，没错。就像你说的那样，她并没有太多关于特定政策或措施如何降低成本的概述。我想对你我来说这是有道理的吧？OpenDoor一直处于高速增长的状态。基本上自从他们上市以来，他们尽可能地扩张。他们购买尽可能多的房屋。正是由于这种策略，他们能够赶超Zillow。
And so the idea that a company that's hiring and growing and focused on so many different bets and moonshots can suddenly pull all that back and save at least 100 basis points of the cost structure seems pretty likely. And I know that she said that third party and list with open door won't be material parts of this estimation, but they will be, right? They have to be for this company.
因此，一个正在招聘、发展并关注如此多的赌局和“月球着陆”计划的公司，突然撤回所有这些，至少节约100个基点的成本结构似乎非常可能。我知道她说第三方和列入Open door的名单不会成为这个估计的重要部分，但是它们将会是，对于这个公司来说是必须的。
And so I think those are probably two topics worth discussing, right? The change in the goals for third party, but then also the real nugget, I thought, like the best part of the whole earnings call was for commentary around the product market that they found with list with open door or list with certainty.
因此，我认为这两个话题值得讨论，对吧？第三方目标的改变，以及他们通过与Open Door（一家房产公司）或使用Certainty（Zillow的一个新平台）列出房产时所发现的产品市场，这些都是整个财报电话中最好的部分，我认为这是最有价值的点。
Yeah, talking about third party, I guess the big shocker or for us, it's not a shocker because we were quite critical of the goal in the first place is last year they were talking about getting to 30% of their sales going through their marketplace. And goal seemingly got revised or clarified that it's going to be 30% of sales in the markets where they rose, which currently is Houston, Dallas and Austin and a very different goal than what we heard last year.
说到第三方，我想大家都很震惊，但对我们来说并不令人惊讶，因为我们一开始就对其目标持批评态度。去年，他们曾经讨论过让他们的销售额中30%经由他们的市场。但目标似乎已经被修改或澄清，即它将是在他们扩展的市场（目前是休斯顿、达拉斯和奥斯汀）中实现销售额的30%，这与去年听到的目标非常不同。
Yeah, yeah. I think Eric will talk to Ben Thompson about the Sunsertetri in November or December or whatever it was. And that's the project that he's currently leading is getting exclusives to be this material proportion of open doors overall transaction volume. And I think we've been critical of this plan from the start, right? Because like I said, a data door, we monitor exclusives volume, both first party and third party.
是的，我认为Eric会在11月或12月或其他时间和Ben Thompson谈论Sunsertetri。这是他目前领导的项目，旨在获得成为开放门户整体交易量的材料的独家权。从一开始我们就对这个计划持批评态度，不是吗？因为像我说的，在数据门户，我们监测独家权交易量，包括第一方和第三方。
It's hard to imagine for a company selling 40,000, 30,000 homes a year that open door can suddenly get to 10,000 homes sold through this third party marketplace within a year. It just seems like an impossible amount of skill. And a few months later on the earnings call this past Thursday, Kerry confirmed our skepticism and said that only in the markets that open doors currently activated, they're going to be 30%.
很难想象一家每年销售4万套或3万套住宅的公司，突然通过第三方市场以10,000套房屋的销量入市。这似乎是一项不可能完成的任务。然而在最近的财报电话会议上，凯利证实了我们的怀疑，表示仅在Open Door目前激活的市场中，它们占据了30%的市场份额。
I think what was exciting to hear her say with that significant caveat is that they're really working on the product number one to make sure that when they do scale it, it's right. But number two, that they were going to be adding more markets this year. And I think that that's really important.
我认为令人兴奋的是听她说到重要的内容，即他们正在致力于确保产品的完善，以便在扩大规模时能够达到标准。但是，更加重要的是，他们将在今年增加更多的市场。我认为这非常重要。
Although when I do the math in my head right now, it's Austin DFW in Houston, right? That's like 80 plus percent of open doors Texas market, which is historically like one fifth to one fourth of open doors overall book of business.
尽管我现在在心里做了一些数学计算，但是在德克萨斯州的市场中，奥斯汀、达拉斯-沃斯堡和休斯顿的门店占比超过80％，而这通常只占总业务的五分之一到四分之一。
So it's a significant percentage of homes, right? I haven't done the math on it just yet, but if open door actually did get to 30% in 20% that's 6% of the overall business. I'd still be pretty happy with that. And it would definitely contribute to the bottom line at least.
这是相当大比例的房屋，对吗？虽然我还没有作出具体计算，但如果开放门真的占到了20%的市场份额，在20年内达到30%，那就是整个业务的6%。我对此仍然感到非常满意。至少，这肯定会对收入产生贡献。
That's back in the Mac napkin math, but probably 50 basis points in gross margin, maybe a little bit less. Which I mean, it all helps write 100 basis points of cost saving plus 50 basis point improvement and gross margins that that's a, I mean, that's a big swing in the viability of this business and certainly cash burn.
那是在Mac餐巾纸上计算出来的，但可能会增加50个基点的毛利率，可能会少一点。这意味着这有助于节省100个基点的成本，加上50个基点的毛利率改善，这对于业务的可行性和现金流燃烧来说是个巨大的变化。
And we've seen a lot of movement on open doors to usives in the last few weeks. Obviously we saw third party number of third party listings increase. I think for the first time they were more third party exclusives listed than actually third party exclusives, which is to write the right direction.
最近几周我们已经看到了很多关于对第三方销售的开放的动态。很明显我们看到第三方销售清单数量增加。我认为这是第一次有更多的第三方排他性清单被列出，这是朝着正确方向的写照。
The other thing we saw is a little experimenting and failing up in filling up the content of the page, right? Especially in Austin, we were at the point where they only had like eight listings on the page.
我们看到的另一件事是在填充网页内容方面进行一些试验和失败，对吧？尤其是在奥斯汀，他们只有八个列表放在页面上。
Something they're experimenting with right now, which we discovered last week is that they're actually listing their own first party homes that on the MLS also on exclusives so that a buyer can buy the same homes that open to a list on the MLS directly from open door for a cheaper price. Basically without the buyer agent commission with the same benefits of any other exclusive home. So 50k, a price match and everything else that comes with it is another interesting development.
他们目前正在尝试的一件事情，我们在上周发现的是他们正在将自己的首选房源同时在MLS（多个上市服务）和独家列表上列出，让买家可以直接从Open Door购买在MLS上开放到列表上的同样房屋，价格更便宜。基本上没有买方代理佣金，但同样享有任何其他独家房屋的好处。所以这个50k，价格相符和其他一切伴随的开发是另一个有趣的进展。
It's probably what we would like to see nationwide. An ability for buyers to directly buy homes from open door would be a massive post improvement to the whole business. We'll need to see how that evolves in the next few months.
这可能是我们想在全国范围内看到的。能够让买家直接从“开放之门”购买房屋将是整个业务的巨大后续改进。我们需要看看未来几个月会如何发展。
And what they're trying to do, the product that they're trying to fill the void of not having the exclusive available nationwide is a list with certain. It's a semi new product from open door.
他们试图做的是，填补全国未提供独家产品的空缺的产品是一个带有特定列表的半新产品，来自Open Door。
They offered list with open door for some time in the last few years where basically they connected you with an agent if you really wanted to list your home on MLS instead of taking a cash offer and it was kind of one of the options that were buried somewhere.
在过去几年中，他们提供了一份“开放门户”名单，如果你真的想在MLS上列出你的房屋而不是接受现金报价，他们会把你联系到一个中介。这是其中一个选项，但位置并不是很显眼。
What they did, experiment with in the last few months, which they mentioned on their earnings class, like they're they explicitly promote list with certainty. As an additional product to get in your cash offer to sellers where spreads in markets where spreads are really high.
他们在最近几个月展开的实验，以及在收益类别中提到的内容，表明他们非常有信心地宣传了一份清单。这是一种额外的产品，可以在市场价差非常高的情况下提供给卖家，作为现金报价的一部分。
So if you're coming to open door to get an offer, they're using for the first time, they're aggressively using this funnel of seller leads to actually get them to agents, which is something that was they would have been obvious for a long time.
所以，如果你来开门来获取一个报价，他们会首次使用这个渠道，积极地使用卖方线索漏斗来将他们送到经纪人那里，这是很长一段时间明显的事情。
It's something they could have tapped into for a long time, but they only decided now to. And what do you think about that, Tyler?
这是他们本可以长期利用的东西，但他们直到现在才决定去做。Tyler，你对此有何看法？
I, so like I said, I thought this is the best part of the earnings call in granted. I think a lot of the earnings call left me a scratch in my head and a little bit frustrated. But this I thought was sort of the exciting point of the earnings call.
正如我所说的，我认为这是整个财报电话会议中最好的一部分。在其他的财报电话会议中，我感到有些困惑和沮丧。但是对于这部分内容，我觉得它是这次财报电话会议中最令人兴奋的地方。
What you would open door saying is that when it provides an offer for a homeowner, it doesn't always convert those homeowners. And in fact, it's only converting about 10% right now given that it's offering such low values for homes that it can be safe, right, and maintain positive unit economics for all the homes that it purchases.
你开门见山要说的是，当公司为房主提供报价时，并不总能成功成为它们的转售方。事实上，目前它只能将大约10%的家庭转换成为其客户，因为它为购买房屋提供的价格相对较低，以便让公司能够安全、正常地经营，同时维持积极的单位经济情况。
And so I think what they've realized is there's still a large percentage of people that are high intent home sellers that open door wants to monetize these are leads, right. And so as opposed to selling to the zilos and the red fins of the world, right, what open door is doing is they're saying, okay, we understand that this price isn't right for you.
所以，我认为他们意识到仍有很大一部分有高意愿出售房屋的人群，而开放的大门想要将他们作为潜在客户来获取收益。与出售给Zilos和Red Fins这样的公司不同，开放的大门正在采取的是，他们会说：“好的，我们明白这个价格对你来说不合适。”
But I think it's valuable to have this offer in your back pocket. And so what if you list with us, right, what if we connect to you with other potential home buyers and other offers and we'll take a small cut of the eventual sale.
但是我认为在备用文件夹中保留这个报价是很有价值的。因此如果你和我们合作销售房屋，我们可以为你接洽其他潜在的购房者和其他报价，并从最终的销售中获得一小部分收益。
And at the end of the day, if you don't find anything that you like, you can always sell to us and you have a guarantee cash offer. And what they found is that 20 to 25%.
在一天结束时，如果您没有找到任何喜欢的东西，您可以随时向我们出售，并获得保证的现金报价。他们发现的是20至25％。
意思是，如果你在购物的过程中没有找到合适的东西，可以将物品卖给我们，我们保证给你现金报价。而且他们发现此类情况经常发生，占购物者的20至25％。
This number is enormous, right? Like 10% right now are converting to an open to traditional open door offer. 20 to 25% are converting to this list with open door list with certainty. And what that means is that open door is taking a completely profit, like 100% profit cut from these home transactions.
这个数字非常惊人，不是吗？目前有10%的人正在转换为传统开放式房门优惠。20%到25%的人正在转换为确定具有开放式房门列表的名单。这意味着Open Door从这些房屋交易中获得了完全的利润，即100%的利润。
What is it, Sebastian? One and a half percent, one, one percent. How much is it? Yeah, so we don't know the fee structure of the new list with certainty product, but based on the all list with open door product, basically charging us 5% commission fee to the seller, which is equal to the 5% they would make open door to get the cash offer. One percent of that goes to open door, 1.5% goes to the partner agent that works with the list at home and 2.5% go to the buy agent.
塞巴斯蒂安，这是什么？1.5％，1％，一共多少？我们目前不确定新名单的费用结构，但是根据开放门户产品的所有列表，销售者基本上会被收取5％的佣金费用，这等于开放门户获取现金报价所能获得的5％收益。其中1％归开放门户所有，1.5％归合作代理商所有，其余2.5％归购买代理商所有。
Yeah, which is the perm depending on the market, but it's like the default by a small commission. So at least 1% of that home sale is going to open door, right? In that situation, open door didn't have to use any of its balance sheet to not to use any leveraging to not have to pay H away. It didn't have to pay repairs, didn't have to pay property taxes, right? And open door is still getting 1% of that home and that's really important that open door has found that space. And while it's not exactly third party, right, that was at least a 3% profit on those homes.
这意味着，open door会根据市场情况给予不同的佣金，但通常会有一个非常小的比例作为默认比例。换句话说，至少房屋销售额的1%会归open door所有对吧？在这种情况下，open door并不需要动用任何货币，也不需要任何资产负债杠杆机制，就可以获得销售所得。open door也不需要支付任何维修费用和物业税等。因此，open door获得了房屋销售额的1%，这对open door来说非常重要。虽然这不完全是第三方交易，但open door在这些房屋上至少获得了3%的利润。
20 to 25% of open doors, not insignificant funnel converting to this list with open door to get 1%. I think is going to be a meaningful component of open doors business.
开放的门约占总数的20至25％，这并不是一个微不足道的漏斗，将这个名单转化为开放的门，获得1％的转化率。我认为这将是开放的门业务的重要组成部分。
Now the question is how did they suddenly find this product and why did they revive it? Here's my theory for why. In 2021, growth companies, private companies reached astronomical valuations, right? Investing was fun and that has changed, right?
现在的问题是，他们是怎么突然发现这个产品的，为什么要将其复兴呢？我有一个关于这个问题的理论。2021年，增长型企业和私人企业的市值达到了天文数字，对吧？投资变得有趣，但现在情况发生了变化，对吧？
In 2022, investing became not fun, particularly if you like technology companies. If you like boring companies, it was probably just fine for you, but companies like open door, really real estate technology companies, suffered. And the reason I bring that up is because you can't really raise at this point in prop tech. Like if you didn't have the cash to survive this downturn, you're really struggling. Take a look at ribbon.
在2022年，如果你喜欢科技公司投资股市已经不再有趣了。如果你喜欢无聊的公司，那么情况可能还好，但像Open Door这样的房地产科技公司受到了影响。我之所以提到这个是因为在房地产科技领域，你现在很难获得融资。如果你没有足够的现金支持度过这个低迷期，你将会面临困境。看看Ribbon就能明白了。
They recently laid off nearly 90% of their staff because it's so hard right now, right? Home transactions are down 50% year-over-year, at least early on. And home values are down as well. And so what I'm getting at is that the power buyers, right? The companies like Orchard River, Ribbon, Knock, they're really struggling. And so I think in 2021, when they were all very well monetized, well funded, aggressively aiming at growth, they could compete against the open doors in this power buyer space, which is what list with open doors is. In 2023, these companies are weak, right? They are devitalized in anemic. And I think open door is recognizing that opportunity as a better funded public entity with a bigger balance sheet of more opportunistic, I guess, to take advantage of this space and fill this need.
最近，由于目前形势十分严峻，他们裁掉了近90％的员工，对吗？至少在早期，房屋交易量同比下降了50％。同时，房屋价值也下跌了。我想说的是，这些权力买家，例如Orchard River、Ribbon和Knock等公司，目前面临着巨大的困难。因此，我认为在2021年，当它们拥有充足的资金、积极追求增长时，它们可以在这个权力购买者领域与Open Doors竞争。Open Doors是一个列表。然而，在2023年，这些公司变得虚弱、贫血。Open Door认识到这个机会，作为一个资金更加充裕、拥有更大的资产负债表并具有更多机会的上市公司，更有能力利用这个领域，满足这个需求。
Because other companies have gone before them and kind of created this product market fit, open doors kind of capitalizing on that in this down market. Yeah, it's, it's assassinating.
因为其他公司已经先他们一步创造了这种产品市场适合度，开发了这个下行市场的机会。是的，它非常成功。
I wouldn't call it, it's a very creative way of, of using a cellophangle to still be able to capture part of the transaction that might happen anyway of serious sellers. What's interesting is the certain deep part. So the product they had before is just list with open door. So you, we connect you to a cell agent, then you're going to do the regular MLS listing. And you obviously can get an open door offer, but that will explain 14 days.
我不会称之为“创意方法”，但使用一个透明胶带的确是一种非常巧妙的方式，可以捕捉可能会发生的交易过程的一部分，尤其是那些严肃的卖家。有趣的是，这其中有一部分非常深奥。所以，他们之前的产品只是一个开放门户列表。所以，我们会为您联系一位中介，然后您将进行常规的 MLS 列表。显然，在这个过程中，您也可以得到一个开放门户的报价，但那需要14天的解释。
What the certain deep piece means here is that while you're listing on the MLS, you can fall back to the open door offer at any time. I wonder what the conditions here are is for 60 days, the for 90 days, really forever. They would be kind of weird. But basically if you see nobody's wants to buy them at home, you can put it off market. You don't pay anything and you take the, the, the off door and at that point, it's a regular seller conversion. We probably like to bear high spreads, right?
这句话的意思是，在您在MLS上列出房屋销售信息时，您可以随时退回开放房屋销售计划。我想知道在这里所述的条件是60天还是90天，还是永久的。这似乎有点奇怪。但基本上，如果您发现没有人想购买您的房子，您可以将其下架。您不需要支付任何费用，可以选择开放房屋销售计划，然后它就变成了正常的卖家转换。我们可能希望获得高利润，对吧？
It's basically like the third party marketplace. Yes, it's very similar to the third party marketplace where the market place is just a regular MLS, but it's, it's using the same, it's solving the same problem for the seller. So they, they know, they're some of this marketplace is not ready yet to be rolled up nationwide. It probably would take a do a disservice to then iterating on a product if they decide to go outside of taxes and know they have to deal with it in different ways, home transactions work in each market while iterating on a product, messing things up, keeping it small, iterating on that when they're ready, they're going to draw up more, expect by the end of 2023.
这基本上就像第三方市场。是的，它非常类似于第三方市场，其市场只是一个常规的房地产多列表，但它为卖家解决了同样的问题。因此，他们知道，这些市场可能还没有准备好在全国范围内推广。如果他们决定走出得克萨斯州这个市场，并要在不同的方式中处理房屋交易的各种市场，那么就会对产品的迭代造成不利影响。他们现在把产品保持小，不断改进，等准备好了再逐步扩大，预计到 2023 年底会扩大更多。
But in the meantime, they figured out this, this twist on the product they had before to still convert sellers, which I have to give them a little credit to. It's an interesting approach. Obviously, it's hard to see other than what the Open Door is going to record on that. It's going to be hard to capture data on this on how successful it is, but it's promising.
但与此同时，他们想出了这个产品的新玩法，仍然可以吸引卖家，我不得不承认他们有点厉害。这是一种有趣的方法。显然，除了开放门要记录的数据之外，很难看到其他数据。很难捕捉到成功率，但是很有前途。
Yeah, I mean, I would, I would go so far as to say that this is the economics of the listing with Open Door model is maybe one and a half percent to Open Door, right? In terms of profit. For exclusives currently, third party is 3% of the home sale price. I would go so far as to say that if there's significant regulatory issues or difficulty scaling, the third party marketplace list with Open Door is a product that no one else can can bill. Similar to the exclusives marketplace outside of Offerpad, but they just don't have the scale for it, I think currently.
嗯，我是说，我甚至可以说，使用Open Door模式进行上市的经济回报可能只有一倍半属于Open Door，对吧？就赚钱而言。目前，独家代理的佣金是房屋售价的3％。我甚至可以说，如果存在重大的监管问题或扩展难度，使用Open Door的第三方市场上市是没有其他人可以创建的。类似于Offerpad之外的独家市场，但目前他们没有这个规模。
And it seems like they've already found product market fit if they're converting 20 to 25% of sellers, right? Basically, what they're saying is it costs you an extra one and a half percent to eat even that. I mean, we don't know, we don't know the economics of the transaction just yet, but basically what it's saying is you have a guaranteed offer in your back pocket, but we will help facilitate your home sale. We'll, we'll take some of the, some of the burden off you.
看起来他们已经发现了产品市场合适性，如果他们能够转换20%至25%的卖家，是吧？基本上，他们的意思是，如果你要弥补成本，你需要额外支付1.5%的费用。我是说，我们还不知道交易的经济学，但基本上它所表达的是你有一个保证的报价，但我们将帮助你促成家庭出售。我们会帮你分担一些负担。
And actually, with all of the other like appraisal match guarantee and all the other benefits that you get in the third party marketplace, I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if the, the margin, like the actual gross margin of the third party, or sorry, the list with Open Door sales are similar to the third party marketplace. And theoretically, it can be available nationwide today.
实际上，除了尽职评估匹配保证以及第三方市场所提供的所有其他优势外，我敢说，开放门销售的毛利率（即净收入与总收入的比例）与第三方市场类似。理论上，这种销售模式今天就可以在全国范围内实现。
Right. We don't know. We're open market. I just turned the road out. Yeah. Yes. Just what's interesting here and maybe we can dive into this a little bit deeper next time. But it obviously for Open Door, it also has an impact on their potential sales price of the home. If the home was listed once and taking off the market. If the seller, the says list with Open Door and then out there, what? Okay, I don't get any offers. I'm just going to take the cash offer. Then home has an MLS entry saying it was taking off the market, which usually indicates that it's not a great home. Like it has an impact on valuation.
好的，我们不知道。我们在开放市场上。我刚把这个问题列出来了。没错。没错。这里有些有趣的东西，也许下次我们可以深入探讨一下。但很明显，对于Open Door来说，这也对他们房屋的潜在销售价格产生了影响。如果房屋曾经上过市场，然后被撤下来。如果卖方说要跟Open Door合作然后又退回去了，那么怎么办呢？好吧，我没有得到任何报价。我只是打算接受现金出价。那么这栋房子有一个MLS入口，说明它已被撤下市场，通常意味着它不是一个好房子。这对估值产生了影响。
I guess that there's also covered by the increased spreads at that point. It's a really fascinating topic. You have to model it in because the homes that do convert to an Open Door sale, you need a bigger spread in the homes that don't, you probably wouldn't. Right. So it's interesting. It's an interesting data problem for smarter people than me. I guess we need to do another episode.
我猜那时的价差也被增加了。这是一个非常有趣的话题。因为那些转换为Open Door销售的房屋，你需要在没有转换的房屋中有更大的价差。没错。所以这很有趣。这是一个比我聪明的人，有趣的数据问题。我猜我们需要再做一集。
We talked about this last time on all of Open Door's power bank, cable booths, both on the buy with Open Door site and list with certainty now. It's pretty fascinating.
我们上次谈到了Open Door所有的电源银行和充电线展位，无论是在Open Door网站购买还是在清单中列出。这非常有趣。
All right. We are already 40 minutes in. So let's cover one last topic. I feel like we're going to have to do another episode on all the things that came up in those air ninks because it has been a lot. And there was a lot of shocking news is it was not mentioned on the earnings call, but there was an SEC Friday that Daniel Marillo chief investment officer left to come. Resigned. I think it was a resignation. Yeah. Yeah.
好的，我们已经进行了40分钟。所以让我们涵盖最后一个话题。我觉得我们不得不在所有出现在这些新闻中再进行一集，因为这已经是很多了。而且有很多令人震惊的消息，虽然在财报电话会议上没有提及，但是有一个SEC星期五，Daniel Marillo首席投资官辞职了，我想这是一份辞职信。是的，没错。
I was a little shocked about this. I've read the interviews and spoken briefly with the guy who was Daniel Marillo before Daniel Marillo. And a lot of ex open door employees who all really respect him and sort of his contribution to the company. I've also met Daniel Marillo one time. We chatted briefly about Zillow's demise and how Open Door responded in Q3 of 2021. I think it's a shock.
我对此有点震惊。我读过采访并与那个曾经是丹尼尔·马里罗的人以及许多前Open Door员工短暂谈话过，他们都非常尊重他并认为他为公司做出了贡献。我也见过丹尼尔·马里罗一次。我们简短地聊了一下Zillow的衰落以及Open Door在2021年第三季度的回应。我认为这令人震惊。
He's obviously been an integral part of Open Door performance as a public company and he's run the entire pricing team since they went public. And so seeing him leave, plus the reshuffle in late Andrew Loweky, caring move in the CEO, Eric, moving to president marketplace. There's been a lot of changes from the company, you know, a C suite that went public a few years ago.
他显然是Open Door作为一家上市公司的重要组成部分，自他们上市以来他一直领导整个定价团队。所以看到他离开，再加上Andrew Loweky最近的重组，CEO Eric调任市场总裁，这对公司来说都是很大的变化。几年前这个公司的高管团队刚刚上市，现在已经发生了很多变化。
Yeah. I guess we will need to monitor Daniel's LinkedIn profile is like he had plans for something else that where he thought this time might be more well-spent than an open door. If there was a more disagreement at the top and he left and just going to go on vacation for a four year, that will be interesting to look at. We will never hear the full story here probably. Well unless Daniel comes on the show and tells us I can tell you this, he can make a lot more money working pretty much anywhere that he's qualified for outside of Open Door. Right? Definitely took a pay cut coming from Citadel to Open Door.
是的。我猜我们需要监控丹尼尔的领英档案，因为他好像有其他计划，认为这段时间可能比“敞开门”更值得花费。如果在高层出现更多分歧，他离开并休假四年，那将是有趣的事情。或许我们永远也听不到完整的故事。除非丹尼尔来节目中告诉我们。我告诉你，他可以在敞开门之外的任何符合资格的地方赚到更多的钱。对吧？离开Citadel来敞开门肯定会降薪。
Yeah.
是的。
All right, I think that was a good summary of the most surprising things we heard last week. We are still planning to do a Twitter spaces.
好的，我认为上周听到的最令人惊讶的事情已经总结得很好了。我们仍在计划进行Twitter空间会议。
I guess we have to explain. We had a Twitter spaces. We had a few things that we had to do for the first day of earnings. But before earnings, we canceled before earnings. A lot of people speculated that after we sold earnings we just canceled it.
我猜我们需要解释一下。我们举办了一个Twitter的spaces（一种社交媒体互动方式）。在首次收益日之前我们需要完成一些事情。但是在收益日前取消了这个活动。很多人猜测我们是因为卖了预计的收益后才取消的。
Then about the case. We read about that shock. Yeah. Timing, and emergency situation at work. Right? Yeah. We can share the facts to confirm the timing of this event. It definitely wasn't because Open Door's results were very different than what we expected. I have a different day job and it's not very flexible and something came up and I couldn't make the spaces.
关于这个案件。我们听说了那个震惊。恩。是时间，以及工作中的紧急情况。对吧？是的。我们可以分享事实来确认这个事件的时间。这绝对不是因为“开门”的结果与我们的预期非常不同。我有一个不太灵活的不同的日常工作，有一些意外发生了，我无法赶到那个地方。
Yeah. So we probably scheduled this maybe for next week or this week. This week or this week. We will take any of your questions and we're looking forward to talk to you.
是的，所以可能我们把这个安排在下周或者这周。我们很乐意回答你的任何问题，期待与你交流。
Make sure to follow us on Twitter and obviously get a data door subscription to read all of our follow up that will come in next few weeks and months. How we think Q1 will look like and beyond. And it's going to be an event for next few months. And we will be here to talk about it.
请务必关注我们的推特，显然需要购买数据门户的订阅，以便阅读接下来几周和几个月的所有跟进内容。我们将分享对 Q1 及其后的市场情况的看法。接下来几个月将是一个重要的时期，我们会一直在这里替您提供最新的讨论。
And on the way down then hopefully on the way up. Yeah, hopefully eventually there's a way up that I'd like to see that myself. What is somber episodes? Our beds. We'll make it there. There are some of these. Yeah.
在下降的路上，希望最终能够上升。是的，希望最终有一种方法，我想自己看到。什么是忧郁的情节？我们的床。我们会到那里的。还有一些这样的。是的。
（本段文字原文可能出自对话录音，翻译结果仅供参考，不代表严格意义上的准确译文。）
Yeah. I mean, I left a few times. I think it's a tough time to be a growth stock investor and particularly hard to be a prop to investor. But Openore is a plan. They're a smart company and they have a lot of opportunity ahead.
是的。我意思是，我离开过几次。我觉得现在是成长股投资者的艰难时期，尤其是资本投资者。但是，Openore有一个计划。他们是一家聪明的公司，有很多机会。
And I think for the most part they have a monopoly on the space. They're certainly not competing for price with a competitor. And so I think that's important. And Zillow was around. It was a trickier time. Offer pads around and certainly they're doing fine as well. It's just they're competing at a different volume than Openore right now.
我认为，在大多数情况下，他们在这个领域拥有垄断地位。他们肯定不会与竞争对手在价格上竞争。这一点很重要。当时Zillow还在市场上。那是一个较棘手的时期。Offer Pad也在市场上，他们目前也做得很好。只是他们与Openore目前面临的竞争量不同。
And they too are trying to just survive this current dislocation. And so if either of these companies can make it through, there's a huge opportunity to be a middle man in residential real estate. But in the meantime, there's a lot of speculation and a lot to sort of follow and trend to figure out if it's going to happen.
他们也在努力应对当前的不适。因此，如果这两家公司中的任何一家能够挺过来，那么在住宅房地产中成为一个中间商就有着巨大的机会。但与此同时，有很多猜测和趋势需要跟进和分析，以确定是否会发生。
And I hope it does because I really do think that we need innovation in a residential real estate transaction. There never has really been innovation in this space. And that's why I think both of us get so passionate about this issue and why we've defended companies that are attempting it. But it's a tough time. It's a tough time to be attempting it. And so we're going to keep following it.
我希望能够实现这一点，因为我确实认为我们在住宅房地产交易中需要创新。这个领域从来没有真正进行过创新。这就是为什么我认为我们都对这个问题如此热情，并且为试图进行创新的公司辩护。但现在是困难的时期，试图进行创新也很困难。所以我们将继续关注它。
And Openore still seems to be in this seemingly best position to make a change. Right? There's a thing on what he has left, like you mentioned.
而Openore似乎仍然处于最佳位置来做出改变，对吗？就像你提到的，他手上还有一件事情。
So yeah, all right. Talk to you next time, Tyler.
好的，好的。下次再跟你聊天，泰勒。
Yeah, sounds good. Bye, Sebastian.
好的，听起来不错。再见，塞巴斯蒂安。
意思是：同意对方的建议，告别名叫塞巴斯蒂安的人。