Opendoor's Exposure to SVB, new List with Certainty Product & Current Margins
发布时间 2023-03-13 18:44:13 来源
Welcome to the seventh episode of the Data Door Front Pouch Podcast. We have a packed show today. Fuck, it's not a picture. Okay, let's start again. I put a more video. Yeah. Maybe it sells better when you call it a packed show. All right.
欢迎来到《数据门前袋播客》第七期。今天的节目内容非常丰富。糟糕，这不是一张图片。好吧，让我们重新开始。我会放更多的视频。也许称它是一个内容丰富的节目更具吸引力。好的，现在开始。
Welcome to the seventh episode of the Data Door Front Pouch Podcast. We have an exciting show today. We will talk about the topic of the weekend. The Silicon Valley Bank going under and what that means for open door. What is the relationship between Silicon Valley Bank and Open Door right now? We will talk about this with certainty.
欢迎来到Data Door Front Pouch Podcast的第七集。今天的节目非常精彩。我们将会谈论本周末的话题：硅谷银行破产对Open Door的影响。现在硅谷银行与Open Door之间的关系是什么？我们将会谈论这个问题并予以解答。
Something we heard about in the areas called. We talked a little bit about it in our life's discussion. They may own on Twitter Spaces last week. We're going to dive into that a bit more. And then lastly, we have a listener question on how great pending margins look like a forebender. So these are our free main topics today.
今天我们将谈论三个主要话题。首先是关于某些地区听到的一些事情，我们在生活讨论中稍微谈了一下。他们可能在上周的Twitter空间中拥有这个话题讨论。我们要更深入地探讨这个话题。最后，我们有一个听众关于前瞻者大规模看起来有多好的问题。这些就是我们今天的三个主要话题。
Let's jump into this situation with SVD. It's right now it's an evolving situation for us. It's a someday evening in the US time. The situation right now is that another bank signature bank failed and this had stepped in and guaranteed full data positives for both signature bank and Silicon Valley Bank for everybody to get their money out on Monday, which is really positive after the weekend went and how it's screaming there was an on Twitter. And more importantly, for this podcast is like what was or is the relationship with Open Door and how could this affect them? Tyler, do you have any information on that?
让我们用SVD深入了解这种情况。目前对我们来说，这是一个不断发展中的局势。现在美国时间是星期天晚上。目前的情况是另一家银行Signature Bank倒闭了，而此时SVD走出来，保证了对Signature Bank和Silicon Valley Bank的所有客户都能在周一取出他们的资金的全面数据的积极监管，这是周末过去后的真正积极进展，同时也解决了Twitter上的一些不安情绪。对于我们这个播客来说，更重要的是：Open Door与这个银行有什么关系，这会对他们产生什么影响？Tyler，你有关于这方面的信息吗？
Yeah, so I commented about this on Twitter this past week when I heard about it. I heard from one of my sources quite trust that Open Door has less than 1% of their capital in Silicon Valley Bank and none of their critical business accounts are run out of Silicon Valley Bank, which was encouraging to hear. I mean, it's a move point now because it sounds like no one's going to be missing their money anyways. But I will say there is a historic relationship between Silicon Valley Bank and Open Door and a lot of the founders of Open Door have recognized the idea that without Silicon Valley Bank support early on, there probably wouldn't be an Open Door. And I think that's probably the case for a lot of disruptive and private technology companies in Silicon Valley over the past few decades who partnered with Silicon Valley Bank. So I think overall, and maybe this is a separate topic. I mean, when you look into the cause of all of this, it really does appear to be mismanaged funds. But I will say it's a huge blow for the startup community and it's unfortunate to see because Silicon Valley was very important for founders.
嗯，当我听到这件事时，我在上周在Twitter上发表了评论。我从我信任的一些消息来源得知Open Door只在硅谷银行中投资了不到1％的资本，并且他们的关键业务帐户都不是总部驻扎在硅谷银行中，这让人感到鼓舞。我是说，现在这已经没有任何意义了，因为听起来好像没有人会失去他们的钱。但我要说的是，硅谷银行与Open Door之间有着历史上的联系，Open Door的许多创始人认识到，在没有硅谷银行的早期支持，可能就不会有Open Door。在硅谷过去的几十年中，很多具有颠覆性和私有技术公司与硅谷银行合作，我认为这可能是一个独立的话题。所以整体来说，也许这是一个单独的话题，当你深入探究这一切的原因时，真的似乎是资金管理不善导致的结果。但我要说这对创业社区来说是一个巨大的打击，这真的很不幸，因为对于创始人来说，硅谷非常重要。
Yeah. There's probably some other better podcast to cover like what XC went wrong here. It probably wouldn't have just affected Silicon Valley Bank, but as we've seen with the signature bank and probably some other banks that are in this in no situation where they have a very long duration but low interest instruments that wouldn't be worth the same as they were when rates were lower. So if everybody is going to get for their money and the bank would probably not be able to cover the amounts of time in time, I guess that's what happened here. The spicy thing is because in Silicon Valley, a lot about herd mentality. Everybody is running into the same sectors. If it's crypto or AI, everybody wants to fund the same things. Obviously if the big VC companies tell their companies to pull out money out of the Silicon Valley Bank, everybody else was also running after the money. I think in the end what happened on Fridays, that 25% of deposits, like over 40 billion dollars, got fired out and that kind of resulted in whatever shock we saw after that.
“是的。可能有其他更好的播客来讲述XC在这里犯了什么错误。它可能不仅影响硅谷银行，而且我们已经看到了Signatures Bank和可能其他银行也处于这种情况，即它们持有长期但低息工具，这些工具在利率较低时就不会值得相同的价值。因此，如果每个人都想要他们的钱，银行可能无法及时支付这些资金，我想这就是这里发生的事情。有趣的是，由于在硅谷，有很多关于羊群效应的事情。每个人都涌入同样的领域。如果是加密货币或人工智能，每个人都想要资助同样的事情。显然，如果大Venture Capital公司告诉他们的公司从硅谷银行撤出资金，其他人也会跟着赶。我认为最终周五发生了什么事情，即超过400亿美元的25％存款被清退了，这在之后导致了任何我们所看到的冲击。”
And the risk is that this could happen to other banks. So that's why they've had stepped in and said, hey, all the deposits, not just the insured part, we will cover them. And direct decision. I think just a double tap on that.
风险就在于其他银行也可能会发生这种情况。这就是为什么他们会介入并说，嘿，不仅是受保险部分，所有存款我们都会承担。这是一个直接的决定。我认为应该对此进行双重确认。
And like you said, this isn't really the podcast to go into exactly what happened, but I think we can simplify this a little bit. I think there's two things that you look for for security in a bank when you have a massive deposit.
就像你所说的，这个播客并不是深入讨论发生了什么的地方，但我认为我们可以简化一下。我认为，当你有大量存款需要保安的时候，在一家银行寻找保障，有两件事情是你需要考虑的。
One is how much of it is insured by the federal government. And only banks really have that designation that's part of what gives them power as banks.
其中一个问题是它有多少被联邦政府保险。只有银行才真正拥有这种身份，这是他们作为银行赋予力量的一部分。
And the other thing is how much liquidity does that bank have? And the liquidity profile, how much cash do they actually have available in the event that there is a bank run so they could cover all deposits? So that ratio is really important.
另一个问题是这家银行有多少流动性？流动性状况如何，也就是说，他们实际上拥有多少现金可以在出现银行挤兑的情况下支付所有存款？因此，这个比率非常重要。
And I think a lot of the really powerful banks in the United States, like the JP Morgan, the Wells Fargo, Bank of America, those types of companies, they have massive liquidity profiles because of the 2008 financial crisis.
我认为美国很多实力强大的银行，例如摩根大通银行、富国银行和美国银行，这些银行都拥有庞大的流动资产策略，因为2008年的金融危机。
But for Silicon Valley bank, you look at what happened in the past couple of years. You think open door, mis timed mortgage rates and interest rates, right? Silicon Valley bank was even worse, right?
但对于硅谷银行来说，我们看看过去几年发生了什么。你认为是敞开大门、错误的抵押贷款利率和利率，对吗？硅谷银行甚至更糟糕，对吗？
They bought 80 billion of mortgage-backed securities when interest rates were near zero, trying to get a 1.5% yield and then the Fed raised interest rate 75 basis points four times and then again, 50, etc.
当利率接近零时，他们购买了800亿美元的抵押支持证券，试图获得1.5％的回报率。但随后美联储举办了四次加息，每次加息75个基点，然后再加息50个基点等。
And you're in a situation where those 80 billion dollars of assets are only gaining one and a half percent when your consumer bank get like so-fi or whatever is giving you 4%, people start wanting more yield on their funds.
你现在处于这样一种情况，你持有的 800 亿美元的资产只有 1.5% 的增值，而像 so-fi 等消费银行给你的收益率是 4%，人们开始想要更高的资金收益率。
And I think because Silicon Valley bank didn't have very much of their assets insured by the federal government, number one, but two, really just didn't have a liquidity compared to their deposits. They were in a situation where a bank run made it very easy for them to go under.
我认为，硅谷银行之所以情况不太妙，有两个原因。首先，他们的大部分资产并未得到联邦政府的保险；其次，相对于存款，他们的流动性实在有限。所以，当银行出现挤兑时，他们就很容易破产。
Yeah, it will be interesting what the consequences of this are in the next two months. I mean, people are speculating from maybe rate hikes will slow down or stop, which is obviously great for mortgage rates probably, but who knows what else will break in this environment?
是的，在接下来的两个月里，这将带来什么后果很有趣。我的意思是，人们正在猜测利率上涨可能会放缓或停止，这很可能会对抵押贷款利率产生积极影响，但谁知道在这个环境中还会出现什么其他问题呢？
Yeah, what is important to know is you mentioned as far as we know, open door only had very small amount of money in Silicon Valley bank. Obviously, public companies don't disclose who they're lending or banking partners are.
是的，重要的是要知道，你提到的“开门”公司据我们所知只在硅谷银行拥有很少的资金。显然，上市公司不会披露他们的贷款或银行合作伙伴是谁。
This is not part of any rules. I don't think anybody discloses that. So we don't know for sure if any of their lending facilities are there or not, but there's a really great podcast that dot Fraser did on the focus, the operator.
这不是任何规定的一部分。我不认为有人会透露这个信息。因此，我们并不确定他们的贷款设施是否存在，但是有一集非常棒的播客是弗雷泽在《聚焦，操作者》上做的。
I think the podcast is from Damien, who is at Sounders Fund is very, very great podcast. It gives you a history of open doors capital stack from like founding to post IPO. I think the podcast is from 2021. I definitely recommend listening to that.
我认为这个播客来源于Sounders Fund的Damien，非常非常棒。它向你介绍了从公司成立到上市后的Open Doors资本堆叠的历史。我觉得这个播客是来自2021年的。我强烈建议你听一听它。
If you are really interested in how the sausage is maize on the capital stack of open door and thought specifically said that like Silicon Valley bank was not the right partner to scale and really get to the to the right cost structure. Right.
如果你真的对OpenDoor的资本架构很感兴趣，并且特别关注这个问题，你会发现硅谷银行不是推广和实现正确成本结构的正确合作伙伴。
And I think that's the other point that's important to double tap here is Silicon Valley bank would be a great partner for risky, unproven business model, right? Like a startup. Because of that increased risk, their interest rates, right? How much they're expected to earn on those assets is a lot higher than you might get at a different bank.
我认为另一个重点是，在这里双击的是硅谷银行将是一个很好的风险高、未被验证的商业模式的合作伙伴，对吧？像新创公司一样。由于风险增加，他们的利率非常高，也就是他们预计从这些资产中获取的利润比其他银行更高。
And that's that's okay. Perhaps, you know, for software companies that are more early stage, mid stage, and open door early stage, but for company like open door, which is looking for 10% gross profit margins maximum capital efficiency is really, really important.
没关系。也许对于那些处于早期、中期或门户式早期的软件公司来说可以接受，但对于像开门红这样寻求最大10%的毛利率和最大资本效率的公司来说，资本效率真的非常重要。
And you want the lowest cost structure for your for your debt, for your access to financing and Silicon Valley bank is absolutely not that person, right? Like they're just, it's just a different business model.
你希望在借贷、融资方面拥有成本最低的结构，而硅谷银行绝对不是这样的人，对吗？他们仅仅是一个不同的业务模式。
And so I think really important up front for open door, but it wouldn't make sense for open door to have any significance or large proportion of funding with Silicon Valley bank at this stage of their life cycle.
因此，我认为最重要的是对于“开放门”的创业公司，但此时此刻却不太合理，让硅谷银行在资金方面占据任何重要地位或大比例的资金。
Yeah. And it's really important to state like that because, you know, that's speculation on Twitter where because of some headlines, people expected the open door is like 100% funded by Silicon Valley bank, but that's just how it works.
嗯。这样说非常重要，因为你知道，在 Twitter 上的一些头条新闻中，人们预期开放式门户网站是由硅谷银行全额资助的，但实际情况并非如此。
It would make sense with what's been going on in the past year if that was the end, but it's just not true. So yeah.
如果这是结局，和过去一年发生的事情相符的话，这似乎很有道理，但事实并非如此。因此，是的。
All right, I'm glad we covered this likely what we should expect by next week or maybe we shouldn't anymore because of the announcement from the Fed, but like on Friday, a lot of public companies filed an 8K, a announcement of doing a material impact to their business.
好的，我很高兴我们讨论了这个问题，很可能下周我们应该预计的情况，或许由于联邦储备委员会的公告，我们不再需要这么做了。但就像上周五一样，很多上市公司已经提交了一份8K的公告，公告中表示他们的业务受到了重大影响。
So it's a real good announcement that they had like $500 million in in Silicon Valley bank. We hope that we will see something from this from open door as well because even 1% if it's if you're thinking about a quarterly basis, if that 1% would be gone, it would be kind of material. I think they would have until Wednesday to file this there in a few days, but at this point, we might not even see that fighting anymore because there is not a truly impact. So we might never know how much money they actually had in Silicon Valley bank, but like it's unlikely that it's a big amount.
这是一个很好的公告，他们在硅谷银行有5亿美元。我们希望开放门户也能从中得到些好处，因为即使1%可能是季度基础，如果这1%消失了，它也会对结果产生显著影响。他们应该有时间到周三来提交财务报告，但此刻已经没必要再纠结这个问题了，因为它并没有真正的影响。我们可能永远不会知道他们实际在硅谷银行有多少资金，但很有可能不是一个大的金额。
I don't want open door leadership, right? Like the C suite to tweet like Elon Musk, but it would be nice every once in a while to just get a few comment. You know what I mean? You imagine if Kerry just logged on to her Twitter with, you know, she's like never on Twitter, but if she just logged on and she was like, hey, we don't have any capital in Silicon Valley bank or we had X percentage and just the sigh of relief from the investment community. Wouldn't that be a great use of social media? You know what I mean? From like crisis management perspective and investor relations, I just feel like some of these things, it would just be really nice if it was just solves, you know, with five seconds of work in a bathroom break.
我不想要“开放式领导”，对吧？就像C级人物像埃隆·马斯克一样发推文，但偶尔有几条评论也是很好的。你知道我是什么意思吗？你能想象如果凯瑞(Kerry)上线她的Twitter，因为她几乎不上线但如果她登录了，她会说“嘿，我们在硅谷银行没有任何资本或者我们有X%”，投资界就会松一口气。这不是社交媒体的一个很好的应用吗？从危机管理和投资者关系角度来看，我觉得有些问题只需要充分利用一下卫生间的时间，解决起来就容易多了。
Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, there is obviously something to it that you don't want to be on Twitter, especially when you're open door because basically 90% what you get is hate and your customers are not there. There's nothing that really is great. There's an end at you business to be on Twitter every day as Kerry we love, but in these cases, you know, just like FYI, something like that would have been helpful. As long as it's not everyone relax, everything is fine. Don't worry. I feel like those are the code words for like get your money out right now, right? We've learned that from Silicon Valley bank CEO and obviously Sam Bankman freed. They both did the exact same thing. And then the next day the company went under wild. Yeah, I guess in hindsight, it was a good to just wait a few more days and then in primary sales it tells maybe as well, but some more communication would be helpful. Yeah, well, I mean, at least we're around to kind of report the things, I guess, that leaves space for us maybe maybe that's what it is, it's just like, I don't know, Sebastian Tyler will take care of it sometime. We'll take care of investor relations.
是的，我完全同意。我的意思是，很明显有些事情你不想在Twitter上表现出来，特别是当你是公开门户时，因为基本上你得到的90%都是仇恨，而你的客户并不在那里。没有什么东西真的很好。在每天上Twitter对于你的业务是必须的，但在这些情况下，你知道，就像FYI一样，这样的东西会很有帮助。只要不是大家放心，一切都好。我觉得那些是针对如立即取出你的钱，对吧？我们从硅谷银行的CEO和Sam Bankman自由身上学到了这一点。他们俩都做了完全相同的事情。然后第二天公司就破产了。是的，我想回想起来，再等几天再进行首次销售也许也不错，但更多的沟通将是有帮助的。是啊，至少我们还在这里报道这些事情，我想这可能为我们留下了一些空间，或者可能就是这样，我不知道Sebastian Tyler会在某个时候处理这些事情。我们会对投资者关系进行处理。
All right. Talking about taking care of people, open door announced a really interesting new product on last year in the case it's called list with certainty. List with certainty is it's currently a small experimental trial that looks really promising. I think that's what we heard from the earnings call. It's another option for sellers that come to open door to sell their home for more basic needs. It's an option for sellers to list on the MLS deal. And that's a product that opened their head before like last year it was always kind of a hidden option that can come here and they take advantage of the funnel. If you really want to sell an MLS, you can use open door in the part of the agent.
好的。说到照顾人们的问题，敞开大门去年推出了一个非常有趣的新产品，叫做“有信心清单”。这是目前正在进行小规模试验的实验证明很有前途。我认为这是从财报电话会议中听到的。这是为来敞开大门卖房子以满足基本需求的卖家提供的另一个选择。这是卖家在MLS交易中挂牌的选项。去年，这是敞开大门之前一直隐蔽的一个选项，可以利用漏斗来卖房子。如果您真的想在MLS上卖房，您可以使用敞开大门代理的部分。
What's interesting here is that open door will give you a backup offer. So you list on MLS, maybe your home is there now for six weeks, but you really need to move in two months. So you can see if you get any additional autism MLS and then if you don't still take open doors, slightly discounted offer. It's kind of, it sounds very similar to sell different credit marketplace data building just without the marketplace part, right Tyler? Yeah, I mean, I think we talked a little bit about this before the show, but I think one of the things that you mentioned is it's very similar to like the Redfin product or the Zillow product, right, with the premier agent or the Redfin agent.
这里有趣的是，开放门户将给您备用的报价。因此，您在 MLS 上列出房屋，也许您的房屋已经在那里六个星期了，但您实际上需要在两个月内搬家。因此，您可以查看是否在 MLS 上获得了任何其他的报价，如果没有，仍然可以接受开放门户稍微折扣的报价。这有点类似于出售不同信用市场数据建筑的方式，只是没有了市场部分，对吗 Tyler？是的，我的意思是，在节目之前我们谈到了这个问题，但我认为你提到的其中一个问题是它与 Redfin 产品或 Zillow 产品非常相似，对吧，它还有首席代理或 Redfin 代理。
But the big difference here is that it has a certainty kicker, which is what you were touching on, right? It's like, list your home with this agent, get better, more eyeballs, more traffic, etc. But with open door, you also have an offer in your back pocket, which we've talked about this for the marketplace, right?
这里的一个重大区别在于它有一个确定性机制，这是你说到的，对吗？就像，你把你的房子列在这个经纪人那里，会得到更好的效果，更多的关注、交通等等。但是对于Open door，你也可以拿到一个报价，这是我们为市场所讨论的，对吗？
Like this product can't be built anywhere else because nobody else is buying homes like open door. And so I think that's a big value ad here is that one that open door can, is the only one that can build this product and it has a greater value proposition than even Zillow and Redfin.
就像这种产品在其他地方无法建造，因为没有其他人购买像Opendoor这样的房屋。因此，我认为这是一个重要的附加价值，因为只有Opendoor可以建造这种产品，并且它的价值主张比Zillow和Redfin还要好。
And so, two, and this is another thing that we were talking about before the show and perhaps even more important is you don't need to build a marketplace for lists with certainty to have value, right, to be scalable. And that's what different she hates list with certainty with the third party marketplace, right?
因此，我们之前在节目中讨论的另一件事情，而且可能更加重要的是，你不需要建立一个确信列表的市场才能拥有价值和可伸缩性。这就是不同之处，它让她讨厌那些与第三方市场有关的确认清单。
The third party marketplace is going to be a tough thing to build. And we've already seen that because they walked back projections for what percentage of transactions this would be materially right, one of 30% to like 5% over the space of a few months, expected percent of transactions at the end of 2023.
第三方市场是一个难以建立的事情。我们已经看到过这种情况，因为他们已经调低了对于交易中的百分比预期，从最初的30%降至5%，这是在只有几个月的时间里完成的。这是预估到2023年末的交易百分比。
And the reason is because it's really hard to build a marketplace because you have to aggregate supply to create the demand, you have to create network effects. And so I think the third party marketplace has never been built before and it's going to take a lot more work probably than they assumed upfront.
这是因为建立一个市场是非常困难的，因为你必须聚集供应来创造需求，必须创造网络效应。因此，我认为第三方市场从未被建立过，可能需要比他们最初预计的更多的工作。
And so that's kind of on one side. But the list with certainty, I mean, you can add that into any of open doors current markets and really begin to see significant scale, especially since they're talking about 20 to 25% conversion for the list with certainty product in their one market.
那么这就是一方面的情况。但是，有了确信清单，您可以将其添加到Open Doors当前的任何市场中，真正开始看到显著的规模，尤其是因为他们谈论的是在他们的一个市场中，确信清单产品的转化率可以达到20%至25%。
Yeah, so in their early experiments, it showed that 20 to 25% conversion rate of new sellers that means they're looking at sellers that actually ended up selling their home one and more or less some other means versus 10%, which is the current conversion rate on the first party offers.
在他们早期的实验中，显示了20%至25%的新卖家转换率，这意味着他们着眼于实际上最终出售了自己的住房并采用了某种其他方式的卖家，相比之下，第一方报价的当前转换率为10%。
So it's a way for them to monetize their, your funnel of seller leads, right? And they don't necessarily have to give them to like another platform, they don't have to send them to Zillow or to Redfin. They can do this in house. They have partner agents with a pretty solid economic incentive.
这是他们将你的卖家线索管理好来获利的方式，对吧？他们不一定要把这些线索给其他平台，比如Zillow或Redfin。他们可以在自家内部操作，并与有强大经济动机的合作经纪人合作。
If we look at what the seller would pay, they would still pay a 5% fee, which is lower than 6% you would pay with a regular realtor and that fees then share with the partner agent.
如果我们看一下卖家将支付的费用，他们仍将支付5%的费用，这比您与普通房地产经纪人支付的6%低，并且这些费用会与合作伙伴经纪人分享。
So likely if the economics are anything that they were in the past with list with all list with open or product, it's probably like 1.5% that goes to open or and then there's a part that goes to the by agent and there is goes to the part agent.
很可能，如果经济情况与以往有关，则列表中所有开放或产品中的大约1.5％可能会进入开放或，还有一部分会进入代理人，还有一部分会进入分销商。
It's a pretty great capital-wide product and on the fallback offer, obviously that fallback offer is this kind of the drawback, right? You cannot give the same offer that you would have given if it was listed on MLS because obviously if the home lists once and then gets removed from the market, it's actually that the next buyer is looking at the history of the home and says, hey, that was listed never sold.
这是一个非常不错的全市产品，并且备选方案显然是这样的劣势吧？当然，你无法提供与在 MLS 上列出时相同的报价，因为如果房屋一次上市然后从市场上移除，下一个买家实际上会查看房屋的历史记录并说：“嘿，它挂牌过但从未卖出。”
It's not worth what it was, it was initially listed which gives a head to the value of the home. So there's a discount that a deeper discount for open door when buying this home as well, just an upside-down set for the seller definitely.
它不值得它最初被列出的价值，这可能导致房屋价值下降。因此，在购买此房屋时，对于使用开门方式购买房屋的人来说，会有更深的折扣，这对于卖方来说肯定是一个缺点。
And talking about the downside of the sellers for the seller, I think where I'm looking at the concern too, there's going to be a lot of options for sellers, right?
而谈到卖方的劣势，我认为就我所关注的方面而言，卖方将会有很多选择，对吧？
Let's say in the year from now and in a half from now, they have their first party offer, they have their first party marketplace and there's a list of open door, three decisions, and that is a decision that the seller has to make between free choices.
假设从现在起一年半的时间内，他们会推出自己的首个聚会提供，首个聚会市场以及一份开放门户的列表，其中有三个选择。卖家需要在这个决定中做出一个自由选择。
Obviously, they will pack to that kind of an interesting into a flow through the whole person that makes sense for the seller. You see your first party offer, if you're not happy with it, you have the options to list in the third party marketplace for a week with one showing.
很显然，他们会把这种有趣的东西打包成一种整体体验，使卖家有意义。如果你对第一方的报价不满意，你可以选择在第三方市场上列出商品并展示一个星期。
And then if you're still not happy with any of the offers, you can list those on the MLS list with the backstop offer, but it's a lot less certainly than what we had a year ago where you go to open door, you get an amazing offer that is at market rate because we had crazy home press adriciation and there's no reason to not say yes to that.
如果您对现有的任何报价仍不满意，您可以将它们与后备报价一起列在多个上市服务（MLS）清单上，但这比一年前的情况要不确定得多。以前，当您打开门时，您得到的是一个出色的市场有效报价，因为我们经历了疯狂的房屋升值，并且没有理由不接受它。
It's I almost wonder if there's some sort of goal to list homes concurrently, like lists on the MLS in addition to being listed on the marketplace. I don't know what the regulatory stance is on that, but from a consumer perspective, if open door was just like, hey, we're in charge of selling your home, give us the information, we're going to list the MLS, we're going to list on our exclusives marketplace.
我几乎在想，是否有某种共同列出房屋的目标，例如在MLS上列出，同时在市场上列出。我不知道监管部门对此的立场如何，但从消费者的角度来看，如果OpenDoors只是说：“嘿，我们负责销售你的房屋，给我们提供信息，我们将在MLS上列出，我们将在我们独家的市场上列出。”
You can choose, but we'll get, we'll simulate all these offers for you and explain them. You know what I mean? I feel like as a consumer that that would be most valuable to me as opposed to, you know, we study residential real estate, right?
你可以自己选择，但是我们会为你模拟所有这些报价并解释它们。你知道我的意思吗？我觉得作为一个消费者，这对我来说会是最有价值的，而不是我们研究住宅房地产，对吧？
But if let's say that we don't and we're just trying to sell our home, like you said, if I, if I have to go through this funnel and just be like, I don't know, like I have three options and they, they all require a lot of fine prints. That could be a little bit confusing, but if it's just like, hey, either take this cash offer or we will sell your home, that seems like an easier funnel for me to walk through, easier for me to convert and probably faster from a sales perspective for open doors well because if they're listening on the MLS and trying to get offers plus assimilating offers on exclusives, right?
但是，如果我们只是想出售我们的房屋，就像你说的一样，如果我必须通过这个漏斗来进行，只能选择三个选项，而且它们都需要很多的细节条款，可能会有些困惑。但如果只是像这样，选取现金报价或者让我们卖出你的房子，那对我来说就是一个更容易走过的漏斗，更容易转化，并且从open doors的销售角度来看可能更快，因为如果他们正在MLS上进行销售并尝试获得报价，再加上独家的报价，那么他们就需要更快的销售流程。
Those two things are happening at the same time, which whatever, whichever one is faster wins, you know, in that idea. But I don't know, we haven't gotten any, any commentary around that.
这两个事情同时发生，快速的那一个获胜。但是我不知道，我们还没有听到任何关于这个的评论。
Ideally, I would go to open door and tell them by when I need to have my home sold. If it's in two weeks, I'm, I'm going to get the cash, so the, the first party offer, they tell me, hey, we can listen to the exclusives for a week with one showing to get you more of us. But the end of the week I can select the author that I want and I'm done. If I have eight weeks to sell a home, they should just take care of that.
理想情况下，我想去敲开门并告诉他们我需要在什么时间之前卖掉我的房子。如果只有两个星期的时间，我会得到现金，那么第一家报价者告诉我，“嘿，我们可以独家展示一个星期，让更多的人看到你的房子。”但到了这个星期的末尾，我可以选择我想要的出价者，整个卖房子的事情就完成了。如果我有八个星期来卖房子，他们应该只需要负责这个过程。
And in the seven weeks, show me all the offers I have and I just choose whatever price or whatever buyer I like the most. Yeah. If you can really simplify it down, like as a seller, I don't care where the home goes, right? I just want it to make a maximum price for. Yeah. And that's, that's kind of what I think we're both getting at is selling a home and we've talked about this in the past.
在接下来的七周里，让我看到所有的出价，然后我就可以自由选择最满意的价格或者买家。对于卖家来说，如果能以最高价格卖出房子，房子去哪里无所谓。这就是我们之前谈论的卖房子的目标。
Selling a home is just about finance. It's just how do I maximize two things, right? Convenience and how much money I'm making. That's all that matters for selling a home, buying a home very different, very nuanced, very personal, right? Less about money. I mean, money is still important, but on the axis of importance, it's, it's much lower.
出售房屋只是关乎金融利益而已。只需考虑两个因素：方便性和盈利多少。这才是售房的最重要考虑因素，而购房目的则大为不同，更多变，更具个性。购房不仅仅是钱的问题，虽然钱的因素依旧重要，但在重要度的轴线上，它早已位列次要。
And so if we can simplify that process and just maximize convenience and seller equity, then I think that there's, there's a great chance for high conversion. That said, one of the things that we haven't talked about before for lists with certainty plus their first party businesses, here's the current situation for Open Door in this down market where they've got these massive spreads, right?
如果我们能简化这个过程，只是最大化方便和卖家权益，那么我认为就有很大的机会进行高转化。尽管如此，我们之前没有讨论过一个确定性列表及其各自的第一方业务的问题，在这种萎靡市场上，Open Door面临着巨大的扩张风险。
Open Door is currently converting one out of 10 real sellers to buy their home because they're offering such low, such low prices for these homes, so they have a conservative buffer on their gross margins that only one in 10 real sellers are converting. But in this one market where they're testing out list with certainty, they're getting conversion of about 20 to 25%.
开门房地产公司目前只有10个真正的卖家中的一个愿意以如此低廉的价格出售他们的房屋，因此他们在毛利上保持谨慎缓冲，只有10%的真正卖家转化为他们的顾客。但是在这个测试列表的市场中，他们的转化率约为20%至25%。
And now these two figures compared to Open Door's historical 30 to 35% conversion of their first party business when they were placing offers at or slightly above homes values when HPA was going on this.
现在，当Open Door在房价正在上涨时，他们以或略高于房屋价值的价格进行首次交易，其历史上第一方业务的转化率为30%到35%。这两个数字与Open Door的历史数字进行了比较。
And so I think what I'm most excited about for list with certainty and the third party's third party marketplace is finding a way to turn these unconverting real sellers into converting Open Door customers, whether that's through their first party funnel, their list with certainty or the third party marketplace.
因此，我认为我最为兴奋的是能够找到一种方式，将那些未能转化的真实卖家变成能够转化为Open Door客户的卖家，不管是通过他们的第一方渠道、他们的“保证清单”还是第三方市场。
And so if there's a version of Open Door in the future where they don't need to have such wide spreads, maybe we get back to them. I don't think we ever should get back to 30, 35% because they're probably offering too much for homes for their cost structure for first party. But let's say we're back at like 25%, 20 to 25% for the first party business.
如果将来的Open Door版本不需要那么大的价差，也许我们会再次与他们合作。我认为我们永远不应该回到30%或35%，因为他们可能会为他们的第一方房屋成本结构提供太多的优惠。但假设我们回到第一方业务约25%至20-25%的范围。
And then if you're able to get 10 to 20% for list with certainty, 10 to 20% for the third party marketplace, suddenly even with the exact same amount of sales marketing, advertising, et cetera, they have a much more monetizable funnel because all of those consumers that used to be lost because they said, I don't want to sell my home to Open Door or at that price or whatever it was. Now they have different options for products that they can go through.
如果你能确定地在名单中获得10%到20%的销售额，以及第三方市场的10%到20%，即使是在相同的销售营销、广告等方面，他们的利润空间也更大，因为过去那些表示不想将房屋卖给Open Door或者价格太低的消费者现在有了不同的产品选择，不再会流失。
And I think that's a very real possibility if Open Door is able to get these products right. Yeah. it's kind of a forcing function of the market way in right now. And maybe that's a good thing. I'm pretty impressed how Open Door is evolving their product. They're not just sitting on their heads waiting to things to go back. Great was last year. No, they're coming up with experiments. They probably tried a bunch of more things that we never hear about.
我认为如果Open Door能够正确推出这些产品，那将是一个非常真实的可能性。是的，这在目前市场的趋势下是一种推动力量。也许这是一件好事。我对Open Door如何发展他们的产品印象深刻。他们不仅仅是坐在那里等待事情回归的。去年很棒，但现在他们正在进行实验。他们可能尝试了很多我们从未听过的东西。
But this list with certainty thing is kind of clicked with a lot of their sellers. And that's what they will double down on together with the marketplace. And they will get stronger out of this wherever the housing market goes. And hopefully by the end of the beginning of next year, things look a lot better. And they have another piece that just monitors is a lot better than the business before.
这个确定性清单的事情对他们很多的销售商来说有点受欢迎。他们将和市场一起加倍努力，从而变得更加强大，无论房屋市场走向何方。希望到明年初结束时，情况会好得多。他们还有另外一个监测业务，比以前要好得多。
Yeah. Pretty exciting. We will hopefully see more about that next earnings call sometimes in May.
是的，相当令人兴奋。希望我们在五月的财报电话会议上能听到更多关于它的消息。
And talking about the next earnings call. How is the pen? We have a listener question from the discord from I Shark. And he's asking, how the pending margins currently look like? Are we better? Are we improving or is this sentiment going to the other direction right now? Yeah.
谈到下一次财报电话会议时，这支笔的情况如何？我们有一位来自Discord的听众I Shark提出的问题，他问目前未决的利润率看起来如何？我们是否有所改观，还是这种看法正在发生改变？是的。
So pending gross margins are definitely improving. And they have basically throughout the entirety of early 2023, in since October, really, pending margins have continued to improve from negative to now. They are well into positive territory. Still lower than we'd like for the company and still definitely sub four to six percent contribution profit margin targets, but moving in the right direction.
预计毛利率正在显著提高。自2023年初以来，基本上从10月份开始，预计毛利率一直在不断改善，已经进入正值区域。它们仍低于我们公司的期望，并且绝对低于4到6%的贡献利润率目标，但是朝着正
确的方向前进。
And I think to add a little color to that, because we're not going to share actual numbers for pending gross margin, I think that's really valuable data. And so we we reserve that kind of thing for the data door subscribers, but just sort of adding a little color to what margins might look like for the remainder of the year.
我认为我们应该加入一些细节，因为我们不会分享待定毛利润的实际数字，这些是非常有价值的数据。我们会将这些数据保留给数据门槛的订阅者，但我们会在一定程度上描述一下毛利润可能在剩下的一年内的情况。
One of the things that I think I'm most excited about as someone who's constructive on open door long term is when you look at the percentage of home sales that open doors currently seeing better still the Q2 offer cohort. By that I mean homes that opened their bot between the months of April and August 2022. In Q4, it was 90 percent in Q1 at 60 percent. And in Q2, it's looking like it's going to be 40 to 55 percent somewhere around there. But beyond Q2, that percentage is going to be sub 20 percent, I think, of all sales, possibly even lower than that.
我认为最令我兴奋的事情之一，是我长期看好开放式销售的建设性，其中一个原因是目前开放式销售看到的房屋销售百分比，甚至比Q2推出的同类房屋还要高。我指的是那些在2022年4月至8月之间开放其机器人的房屋。在Q4中，这一比例为90％，在Q1中为60％。而在Q2，它看起来将会是40％至55％左右的比例。但在Q2之后，这个百分比将会低于20％，可能还会更低。
And the reason that that's important is because the gross margins on these homes that were purchased and sold after the Q2 offer cohort are spectacular. Right. I mean, pretty much 10 plus percent for every monthly cohort after September that we've seen so far. And I think that really has implications for open doors, bottom line, as we move into the second half of the year. I think Q1 and Q2 are still going to be under tremendous pressure because not the majority for Q2 at least, but the majority of the homes in Q1 are still going to be Q2 offer cohort homes. In Q2, it's going to be close to half. And so I think there's still going to see a lot of pressure, a lot of margins dragged. But after those quarters, it's really just going to be these homes sold with these massive fat spreads. And so I think open doors going to surprise the upside on margins as we move into the second half.
这件事之所以重要，是因为在Q2优惠集团之后购买和销售的这些房屋的毛利润非常惊人。没错，每月在9月之后出现的所有集团几乎都有10％以上的毛利润。我想这对开放门户公司的底线有着重大影响，因为我们进入下半年时会看到这种影响。我认为Q1和Q2仍然会承受巨大的压力，因为至少对于Q2来说，大多数房屋仍然是Q2优惠集团房屋。在Q2中，这将接近一半。因此，我认为还会看到很大的压力和毛利率下降，但在那些季度之后，它就会是这些售出的房屋，带着巨大的利润。因此，我认为随着我们进入下半年，开放门户公司会在毛利润上取得惊人的表现。
That said, if we have some existential shock to the housing market, like mortgage rates go up another 3 percent or something like that, I mean, open doors probably hosed in that situation. But assuming that there's some semblance of stability in the macro, the second half of 2023 should be really excellent gross margins for open door.
尽管如此，如果我们的住房市场遭受到某种存在性冲击，比如抵押利率再上涨3个百分点之类的，那么我想，在这种情况下开门的前景可能会受到损害。但是，如果宏观经济有一定的稳定性的话，到2023年下半年，开门的毛利润应该会非常出色。
Yeah, we have seen that was another listener question is if we have seen any impact from the rising interest rates because we have seen interest rates go from sub 6 percent or 2 to over 7 percent in the last 45 weeks. If we look at the pending data, especially just for seasonality, I don't think we've seen any impact on on on pending sales for open door, right? I think it's here.
是的，我们看到另一个听众提出的问题是，我们是否看到了升息对我们的影响，因为我们看到利率在过去的45周内从低于6%或2上升到了7%以上。如果我们看待待处理数据，特别是仅从季节性角度来看，我认为对于开门待售的房屋来说，我们没有看到任何影响，对吧？我认为这是这样的。
Let me let me pull it up. I think the one the one caveat to that would be volumes, right? I do think that volumes are going to peak in the spring. I think those are going to be the highest for at least a year probably. But if you look back at like 2022, for example, volumes peaked at the exact same time. So to your point, there's a seasonal element to that.
让我拉上来。我认为唯一的限制就是成交量，对吧？我认为交易量将在春季达到峰值。我认为这至少会持续一年。但是，如果你回顾2022年，比如交易量在同样的时间达到峰值。因此，你提到的是季节性因素。
I think I think that there's two things probably influencing that for right now. One, maybe some mortgage hesitation, some buyer hesitation, and the fact that there's not a lot of inventory available. But also I think the second thing really driving a deceleration in pending volumes is that open door just has doesn't have any new homes, right? They're just not buying enough homes. They're selling more homes and they're buying. And I think because they don't have a lot of fresh inventory, the homes that they're currently trying to sell or increasingly are going to be trying to sell are the, you know, the drugs of the barrel, the last home sold with the Q2 Africa, which I think you're going to be really difficult to sell. And that's going to add inertia to their pending pipeline.
我认为目前可能有两个因素影响了市场。第一，也许是由于一些卖家和购房者的犹豫不决，再加上可供选择的房屋不多。第二，我认为真正导致待售房屋库存量下降的原因是OpenDoor不再购买新房屋，他们卖的房屋比购买的多。由于没有足够的新房屋，他们目前正在尝试出售的房屋越来越多会是有问题的房屋，这些房屋很难出售。这将给他们的挂单管道添加惯性。
And obviously it's really hard to tell where merchants are going, especially with what happened at the end of last week. It's like, the most likely outcome right now is the mortgage rates are going to go down from here. But who knows?
很明显，现在很难预测商家们会往哪里走，特别是考虑到上周末发生的情况。目前最有可能的结果就是，房屋抵押贷款利率将会从现在开始下降。但是谁又知道呢？
So what 2023 doesn't, it's really not disappointing in the amount of excitement that it's face threats. Just the rollercoaster, so it'll start to beginning.
所以即使2023年没有什么特别的，它也不会让人失望，因为它仍然有很多令人兴奋的挑战。就像坐过山车一样，它从一开始就充满了刺激。
So yeah, that probably explains the really widespread because like, whatever happens, Optimus is trying to get fruitless as unscrupulous possible. So, yeah, I think that was actually a question on the Twitter spaces too, is if there was another downturn, what would happen to open door?
嗯，这可能解释了Open Door的广泛传播，因为无论发生什么事情，Optimus都在尽可能地降低成本。是的，我认为这实际上也是Twitter社区问的一个问题，如果再次经历经济下滑，Open Door会发生什么？
And I think reflecting on that, they really are pretty conservatively positioned in terms of the margins of the new cohorts at this point. I mean, even if things dropped the amount that they did in the summer of 2022, I mean, the cushion that they have is, is at least two to three times what it was at that time. And they're buying so few homes that the impact would be much, much, much smaller.
我认为反思一下，目前来看，他们在新的队列边际方面的定位相当保守。即使在2022年夏季出现了类似的下降，他们也至少有两到三倍的缓冲。而且他们购买的房屋非常少，影响会小得多。
I think it would be still a huge risk to the solvency of open doors business, but they're positioned much more conservatively, much more poised for something like that to happen.
我认为这对开放门业务的偿债能力仍然存在巨大的风险，但他们的定位要保守得多，对这种情况更加从容应对。
All right, that's some really good closing thoughts here from Tyler. It's it for today's episode. Make sure to subscribe and like this video. It really helps us out. You should also join our discord at datador.io slash community. And let us know if you have any other topics for us to discuss in future episodes, any questions.
好的，Tyler在这里有一些非常好的结论。今天的节目就到这里了。记得要订阅和点赞这个视频。这真的能帮助我们。您还应该加入我们的discord社区，地址是datador.io/community。如果您有任何其他主题想要讨论，在未来的节目中也可以让我们知道，或者有任何问题也可以问我们。
And obviously sign up for datador Adams to see the numbers, the sales numbers almost in real-time. And here, what we have to say in specific. All right, thanks, Tyler. Yeah, thanks, man.
当然要注册datador Adams来查看数据，销售数字几乎是实时的。在这里，我们需要明确地说一些话。好的，谢谢，Tyler。是的，谢谢，伙计。