New Cybertruck Situation: Delay Incoming? / Volvo & Polestar Delay EV's ⚡️
发布时间 2023-05-11 20:45:20 来源
Does it bother you that he's spending so much time on Twitter? I think he surrounded himself by brilliant people at Tesla and at SpaceX and his other companies. I think he's our Renaissance man. He is the inventor of our age and he's got an enormous capacity to take on new projects.
你是否因他在 Twitter 上花费了太多时间感到不安？我认为他在特斯拉、SpaceX和他的其他公司中围绕着杰出的人才。我认为他是我们的文艺复兴人物。他是我们这个时代的发明家，他有巨大的能力承担新项目。
I do think Tesla, the most important project and we think it's the most impactful AI project out there, Tesla, the autonomous project. I don't know if you, yeah, many of you probably do have Teslas. Many people in the investment community clearly don't because they don't understand what this last software upgrade did for full self-driving. I think they're almost there. We think that that opportunity, so he's almost there.
我确实认为特斯拉是最重要的项目，我们认为特斯拉是最具有影响力的人工智能项目，特斯拉的自主驾驶项目。我不知道你们中的许多人是否拥有特斯拉。很多投资界的人显然没有，因为他们不了解最近的软件升级对于全自动驾驶的影响。我们认为他们已经接近成功了，这是一个巨大的机会。
We needed him to push and get us there, just like we needed him to push on the EV side and get us there. He's almost there and I do think he has time to devote to Twitter. And I think, you know what, if he's happy, I'm happy. He's excited. He's excited, which is fantastic. Never sleep on a happy and excited entrepreneur. It can unlock new levels of creativity and new energy for more problem solving.
我们需要他推动我们走向成功，就像我们需要他推动电动汽车领域的进展。他已经接近成功，我相信他有时间专注于Twitter。如果他开心，我就开心。他很兴奋，这太好了。永远不要低估一个快乐和兴奋的企业家。它可以释放新的创造力和能量来解决更多问题。
Every time they examine a fatality, why don't they examine all the other fatalities out there on the road? The other ones that kill 45,000 people a year. You only hear about Teslas. It's kind of crazy. But anyway, welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Loomis. If you'd like to see that full conversation and the rest of the speakers at the Axios Big Deal event that was held yesterday, I'll have this link below.
每次他们调查一起死亡事件时，为什么不调查其他道路上的所有致死事件呢？每年超过45000人死亡的其他事件。你只听到了特斯拉的事情。这有点疯狂。但无论如何，欢迎来到《电动化》。我是主持人迪伦·卢米斯。如果您想看到完整的对话以及昨天举办的Axios Big Deal活动的其他发言者，我将在下面放上链接。
Just be aware what Elon said is true. Kathy is awesome. The interviewer less so. He was just very negative and came off as anti-Tesla and pretty much anti-anything Kathy said. Well, except for the service being down here and there. But okay, fair enough. All right, still a big Tesla believer. Yes, Kia. We are still believers in Tesla. Put that on the record.
要知道埃隆说的是真的。凯西很棒。采访者则不太好，他非常消极，给人反特斯拉和反凯西说了几乎一切的印象。除了有时服务挂了这一点外。但好吧，这个还算公正。总之，我仍然是一个坚定的特斯拉信徒。没错，是的，Kia。我们仍然相信特斯拉。就这样记下来吧。
A quick update on the Cybertruck rack from yesterday. Simon pointed out this rack was not going to be a product of Tesla's studio for Cybertruck accessories. However, if you watch the video where Ellie talked to Drew and another Tesla employee, here's what was actually said. I'm going to tell you because the audio in the video was very hard to hear. Drew said there will be lots of accessories that will be supplied for the Cybertruck.
有关昨天的Cybertruck货架的最新消息。Simon指出这个货架不会是特斯拉工作室为Cybertruck配件生产的产品。然而，如果您观看Ellie与Drew和另一位特斯拉员工交谈的视频，以下是实际说的内容。我会告诉您，因为视频中的音频非常难听清。Drew说将为Cybertruck提供许多配件。
Drew then asked another Tesla employee if the rack was going to be from Tesla's Cybertruck Studio accessory team. She said it was a custom design for that event. But then Ellie asked if Tesla would supply it, meaning two customers and not just for that event. The person said she didn't know, but then Drew chimed in and said probably yes, but they don't know for sure. That probably yes was that they'll most likely make that rack for customers the way I understand it. Most importantly though, Drew said generally they are doing a lot of fun accessories for the Cybertruck.
德鲁随后问了特斯拉的另一名员工，货架是否来自特斯拉的Cybertruck Studio团队的配件。她说这是为该活动定制的设计。但是艾利随后问特斯拉是否会提供，意味着不只是为该活动提供，也为两个客户。那个人说她不知道，但是德鲁插话说可能是的，但他们不能确定。我理解很可能是他们会为客户制作这个货架。最重要的是，德鲁说他们通常会为Cybertruck提供很多有趣的配件。
FSD version 11.4.1 is now rolling out to employees and we got the release notes. I'm not going to read them to you, but I'll put them up on the screen. You can pause and read if you'd like. And yes, it looks like this version will now be on the 2023 branch no longer in the past on the 2022 branch. And Dirty Tesla confirmed this as well. Elon does love to hype up these releases. He said this version has major architectural improvements.
现在，FSD版本11.4.1正在向员工推出，我们已经拿到了发布说明。我不会为你阅读，但我会将它们放在屏幕上。如果您想要，可以暂停阅读。是的，看起来这个版本将会在2023分支中，不再是过去的2022分支上了。Dirty Tesla也确认了这一点。埃隆确实喜欢炒作这些版本的发布。他称这个版本具有重大的架构改进。
This actually much more than a point release should be version 12.0, but that's reserved for when FSD is fully AI from video into control out in case you're wondering about smart and reverse some in Elon said major update coming in a few months on that topic. This article was from last year, but just so you know, Tesla is not the only company that's trying to overcome Phantom breaking. Honda's also being investigated and Nissan was involved in a class-action lawsuit for the same thing.
这实际上比一个点发行版本应该是版本12.0还要先进，但那将保留给当全自动驾驶能从视频转变为实际控制时。如果你想知道智能和反向的一些问题，埃隆说将有一个重大更新在几个月内到来。这篇文章是去年的，但是请注意，特斯拉并不是唯一试图克服幻影制动的公司。本田也被调查，日产曾因同样的原因卷入一起集体诉讼。
And numbers are being assigned to Korean reservation holders for the model SNX, and deliveries are set for June. This should serve as a halo effect for this market for the first time, and interest rates have actually been trending down in that region. Speaking of interest rates, it's a theme we all have to keep in the back of our minds for the next year or so. Essentially, S&P Global is reporting that younger buyers' market share is shrinking in the new vehicle market with rising interest rates.
现在，韩国预订了SNX型号，并正在为其分配数字编号，预计6月将进行交付。这应该是该市场首次产生光环效应，该地区的利率实际上一直在下降。说到利率，这是我们所有人在接下来的一年左右必须牢记的一个主题。S＆P Global实际上报导，随着利率上升，年轻买家在新车市场的市场份额正在缩小。
They're seeing a decline in the participation of the lower credit tier in the new car segment. As you can see, the average APR right now is higher than it's been for the last six years dating back to January of 2017. There will come a time in the future when interest rates come down and more of the younger tech forward generation has access to buying a vehicle like a Tesla.
他们正在看到低信用等级参与新车销售的下降。正如您所看到的，目前的平均APR比自2017年1月以来的过去六年中任何时候都要高。未来会有一天，利率会下降，更多年轻的科技前卫一代将有购买特斯拉等汽车的机会。
A lot of us know the benefits of Tesla Megapax at their supercharging locations, but then the question becomes, how will Tesla balance giving these two customers and keeping them for themselves? Keep in mind, it's not just Tesla Energy or Tesla's financials that will benefit from scaling more Megapax production, but the Tesla's supercharging economics will benefit as well. Many of us here are expecting Tesla stock to provide for part of our futures. What I can tell you, having managed money professionally and working with thousands of families is this.
很多人了解特斯拉的超级充电站上的 Megapax 的好处，但问题是特斯拉如何平衡给这两种客户并保留它们的使用权？请记住，不仅是特斯拉能源或特斯拉的财务将从扩大 Megapax 生产中受益，特斯拉的超级充电站也将受益。我们中的许多人期望特斯拉股票为我们的未来提供支持。我可以告诉你，在专业管理资金并与数千个家庭合作的背景下，这是什么意思。
Many people get to that financial freedom line, but without their health. I'm not saying the sponsor of this video, AG1 is the antidote cure all, but I firmly believe in planting good seeds each day when we can. Having also spent a few years in the fitness world, I can assure you the supplement world is full of garbage and scams. AG1 honestly shines as bright as the sun compared to most of the space. There's a reason Lex Friedman, Andrew Huberman, Rogan, and the Institute of Human Anatomy all recommend it and speak very highly of it. It's also certified by NSF, an independent third party.
很多人在实现财务自由的同时，却失去了健康。虽然我并不是这个视频的赞助商AG1的解药，但我坚信在我们能做到的每一天播下好的种子非常重要。作为一个在健身界度过几年的人，我可以向你保证，补品市场充斥着垃圾和骗局。与其他大部分补品相比，AG1的效果真的像太阳一样闪耀。Lex Friedman、Andrew Huberman、Rogan 以及人类解剖学研究所都推荐使用AG1，并对其评价甚高。此外，它还经过独立第三方NSF的认证。
It'll cost you hundreds of dollars to get the same quality and list of ingredients. AG1 offers in a simple quick daily scoop mixed with some water and maybe a lemon squeeze if you'd like. Yes, eat well, get nutrition from Whole Foods, sourced well, but honestly, even this is the enough sometimes and most of us aren't eating the rainbow consistently every day. So if you'd like to get a baseline of daily nutrition easily, AG1 is a stellar option in my opinion. You can get five travel packs and a one year supply of vitamin D3K2 for free using my link below. Health is true wealth.
购买相同品质和配料列表的成本将高达数百美元。AG1提供简单快捷的每日摄入剂量，只需加入水和柠檬汁（如果您喜欢的话）。是的，摄取整体食品的营养是很重要的，这些食品来源也要可靠，但老实说，有时这还不够，大多数人无法每天均衡地摄取各种颜色的食物。因此，如果您想轻松获得每日营养基线，我认为AG1是一个卓越的选择。您可以使用下面的链接免费获得五个旅行包和一年份的维生素D3K2。健康就是真正的财富。
Robinhood is set to launch 24 hour, five days per week, stock trading for select companies. The plan is to allow trading from 8 p.m. Eastern time Sunday to 8 p.m. Eastern time Friday on 43 different securities. Tesla is one of them. Robinhood plans to roll out the feature next week and all customers should have it by June. Obviously though, trading in these hours will have very limited liquidity, so Robinhood will only allow people to place limit orders. I have a lot of thoughts on 24-7 trading, but I'll share those in a different form in the future. For now, don't forget what Robinhood did just two years ago.
罗宾汉（Robinhood）将推出24小时、每周五天的股票交易，供一些公司使用。计划允许43种不同证券从东部时间周日晚上8点到东部时间周五晚上8点进行交易，其中包括特斯拉。罗宾汉计划于下周推出这一功能，所有客户应该在6月前可以使用。显然，这些交易时间的流动性非常有限，因此罗宾汉只允许人们下限价单。我对24-7交易有很多想法，但我将在以后以不同的形式分享。现在，请不要忘记罗宾汉仅仅两年前做了什么。
I've seen plenty of commotion the last 24 hours about this news, Panasonic delaying mass production of 4680 cells for Tesla. Now people saying the Cybertruck is going to be delayed, so I want to clear up a few things. Currently Panasonic has a Pilot 4680 line that's been up and running for years now supplying test cells to Tesla. They were going to expand those lines and begin commercial production of 4680s for Tesla between April of this year and March of next year, but now that's essentially being pushed back roughly one year, they're now looking to begin operations between April and September 2024. They're reasoning they want to introduce performance improvement measures that will further enhance competitiveness.
在过去的二十四小时里，我看到了很多关于这个消息的骚动，即松下公司推迟了特斯拉4680电池的大规模生产。现在有人说塞博卡车将会延迟，因此我想澄清一些事情。目前，松下公司拥有一条试产4680电池的生产线，已经运行了几年，并向特斯拉提供了测试电池。他们原本计划在今年4月至明年3月之间扩大这些生产线，开始为特斯拉的4680电池进行商业化生产，但现在这个计划被推迟了大约一年，他们现在计划在2024年4月至9月之间开始运营。他们的理由是想引入性能提升措施来进一步提高竞争力。
I really think this just goes to show that what Tesla is doing is not an easy feat by any stretch. Going back to summer of last year, Panasonic started delivering the first sample 4680 cells to Tesla. And again, mass or commercial production of these cells was supposed to be expanded in Japan basically now and then after that they were going to move production to North America. We later learned Panasonic's North American expansion plans may be different than we thought they talked about investing $4 billion in a factory in Kansas, primarily to supply Tesla, but that they're going to start with 2170 cells.
我真的认为这只是说明了特斯拉所做的事情绝非易事。去年夏季，松下开始向特斯拉交付首批样品4680电池。现在基本上已扩大日本的这些电池的大规模或商业生产，然后他们将把生产搬到北美。后来我们得知，松下的北美扩张计划可能与我们所想的不同，他们谈论投资40亿美元建立堪萨斯的工厂，主要为了向特斯拉供应，但他们将从2170电池开始生产。
So just to clarify, it's not this Panasonic factory that's being delayed, it's the actual mass production at the Japan plant as far as I can sell. The new factory in Kansas is expected to be bigger than Gigaine Nevada and they're supposed to begin mass producing these cells for Tesla by 2024. But when it comes to the Cybertruck, Drew on the key one call said as we steadily ramped production ahead of the Cybertruck next year. So real production of the Cybertruck is more in 2024 than later this year.
仅仅需要澄清一下，这不是因为松下工厂的原因而延迟了，实际上是在日本工厂的大规模生产上出了问题。新的堪萨斯工厂预计会比内华达州吉加恩厂更大，并且计划在2024年开始为特斯拉生产这些电池。但就Cybertruck而言，Drew在电话会议中说，我们会在明年Cybertruck前稳步提高生产能力。因此，Cybertruck的实际生产时间比今年晚些时候更可能在2024年左右。
And yes, I know that Elon said they're hoping for a Cybertruck delivery event, but he said hopefully around the end of quarter three this year. So sometime toward the end of September, hopefully. And then Elon took the time to explain how the ramp for Cybertruck is going to be slow and probably much slower than we're used to. He said this is really a very radical product. It's not made in the way that other cars are made. Point being my expectation for Cybertruck production this year will be in the hundreds and maybe the thousands cumulatively. So does Tesla alone have enough 4680 cells for this? Well, if you go back to December of last year, they were making enough for 1000 cars in one week.
是的，我知道伊隆曾表示，他们希望能够举办一场赛博卡车交付活动，但他说希望在今年第三季度末左右，大约是在九月底。然后，伊隆花时间解释了赛博卡车的产量将会非常缓慢，可能比我们所熟悉的速度要慢得多。他说这真的是一种非常激进的产品，不像其他汽车那样生产。我的预期是，赛博卡车今年的生产量将是数百甚至数千辆的累计总和。那么，特斯拉是否有足够的4680电池？如果回到去年12月，他们一周就能生产足够1000辆汽车的电池。
There's plenty of debate on if this number was just from Cato Road or Cato and Austin combined. Personally, I think it's the latter and here's why. This picture on the left is Cato Road. You see the California flag. And this picture on the right, there's people wearing Gigatex's hats, but more importantly in the back you'll see this F-13.
关于这个数字是来自Cato Road还是Cato和Austin的组合，存在着很多争议。个人而言，我认为是后者，原因如下：左边这张图片是Cato Road，你可以看到加利福尼亚州的旗帜；而右边这张图片中，人们戴着Gigatex的帽子，更重要的是你可以看到背后的F-13标识。
Well, thanks to this video from Joe Tepmire, you can see that F-13 is actually directly in the battery cell production of the Gigatex's layout. Either way, let's assume this number is for both places and that's equal to about 4000 cars per month worth of 4680 cells as of the end of last year.
感谢Joe Tepmire的视频，你可以看到F-13实际上直接处于Gigatex的电池生产布局中。不管怎样，让我们假设这个数字适用于两个地方，相当于去年年底每个月约生产4000辆4680电池的汽车。
And here's what Drew just said on the Q1 call. And zooming out for the 4680 team, Q1 was all about cost and quality. We made significant improvements in both areas. And Texas production increased 50% quarter of a quarter, three yields increased 12% and Cato P-grade increased by 20% and three yields improved by 20%.
这是Drew在第一季度电话会议上刚刚说的内容。对于4680团队来说，第一季度主要关注成本和质量。我们在这两个方面都取得了显著的进展。德克萨斯州的生产量按季度增长了50％，三次产量增加了12％，Cato P级增加了20％，三次产量提高了20％。
So Texas 4680 production increased 50% quarter of a quarter and it was the Cato Road P-grade that increased by 20%. So by now, Tesla could very easily be making enough 4680 cells for between 6 and 8000 cars per month.
德州4680电池的生产在季度间增长了50％，而Cato Road P级电池的增长为20％。因此，现在特斯拉可以很容易地生产足够6至8000辆汽车所需的4680电池。
And yes, some of those will of course go to the base version of the Model Y, but could Tesla switch it up and use some LFP packs instead? I think it's possible. But here's what everybody seems to be forgetting.
当然，其中一些将会用于基础版 Model Y，但特斯拉是否可以改用一些LFP电池组呢？我认为这是可能的。但是这里有一个人们似乎忘记的问题。
It's Panasonic and LG that are expected to make 4680s for Tesla. Summer of last year, LG announced a new production line in South Korea for 4680 cells. This line is expected to have a production capacity of 9 Gw and it's supposed to be 4 Tesla and they said it was going to start production of these 4680 cells in the second half of this year. So basically one month from now.
预计松下和LG将制造用于特斯拉的4680电池。去年夏天，LG宣布在韩国建立了一条新的4680电池生产线。该生产线预计拥有9Gw的生产能力，并且为了特斯拉量身定制，他们表示将在今年下半年开始生产这些电池。因此，基本上距离现在只有一个月了。
9 Gw is equivalent to 9 million KW and just for easy math if you assume 90 KW per cyber truck pack, that's enough for 100,000 cyber trucks per year just from this one line from LG. South Korea does have a free trade agreement with the United States.
9吉瓦等于900万千瓦，如果你假设每个Cyber Truck电池组需要90千瓦，那么仅凭LG这一行就足够生产10万辆Cyber Truck了。韩国与美国有自由贸易协定。
At the end of the day, Tesla is basically looking at this 4680 supply from LG and Panasonic as insurance policies on their own 4680 production. So even if one of those insurance policies Panasonic is now delayed roughly a year between its own in-house production, the lower initial volume of cyber truck production and LG seemingly still being on track to supply 4680s to Tesla, personally I do not think there will be any problems for cyber truck production because of 4680 supply.
最终，特斯拉主要是将LG和Panasonic的4680供应视为对其自己4680生产的保险策略。因此，即使其中一个保险策略——Panasonic在自身内部生产方面出现了大约一年的延迟，以及Cyber Truck生产的初始量不足，但LG似乎仍将按计划向特斯拉供应4680，我个人认为由于4680供应问题，Cyber Truck生产不会有任何问题。
With all of that said though, personally I have my expectations for cyber truck production volumes very low all the way through the first half of next year. I'm just keeping my expectations in check.
尽管如此，就个人而言，我对塞伯特卡车的生产量预期非常低，甚至在明年上半年也是如此。我只是控制好了自己的期望。
Here we have an actual delay with Volvo delaying the EX90 due to more software development and testing needed. Now they're expecting to start production of this SUV EV in the first half of 2024 instead of later this year as originally planned.
这里的现实情况是，沃尔沃推迟了EX90的发布，因为需要进行更多的软件开发和测试。现在，他们计划在2024年上半年开始生产这款SUV电动汽车，而不是像最初计划的那样在今年晚些时候发布。
Along similar lines, Polestar has lowered its 2023 production guidance and said it'll cut head count 10%, citing delayed production for the Polestar 3 in a challenging environment for the industry. Polestar now expecting to make between 60 and 70,000 cars this year down from 80,000 previously.
类似的，Polestar已经降低了2023年的生产指导，并表示将裁掉10%的员工，原因是在这个行业的挑战性环境中，Polestar 3的生产被延迟。现在，Polestar预计今年将生产60,000至70,000辆汽车，而之前的预期是80,000辆。
Almost like making electric vehicles is a tough endeavor. The Polestar 3 now pushed back to quarter one of next year instead of later this year and they blame it on their parent company Volvo for the same reasons the EX90 was delayed.
制造电动汽车就像是一项艰巨的事业。 Polestar 3计划推迟到明年第一季度而不是今年晚些时候，他们将延迟的原因归咎于母公司沃尔沃，原因与EX90延迟相同。
If you haven't seen it already, Matt Reisinger did a very cool video on a Tesla solar roof install, a lot of nice insights if you missed it, it'll be linked below.
如果您还没有看过的话，Matt Reisinger将特斯拉太阳能屋顶安装做成了非常酷的视频。 如果您错过了这些非常棒的见解，可以在下方找到链接。
I found this, ask anything from the Tesla manual using chat GPT, I only played around with it for a few minutes but this will also be below if you want to try it out.
我发现了这个东西，可以使用聊天GPT从特斯拉手册中询问任何问题。我只是尝试了几分钟，但如果你想尝试一下它，下面也会有相关信息。
The Powerwall is now available in Spain, a good sign for production. Don't forget to check out AG1 linked below, get your freebies if you're interested, you can find me on Twitter at DillonLumus22, hope you have a wonderful day, please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
Powerwall现在已经在西班牙上市，这是生产方面的好迹象。如果你有兴趣，请务必查看下面链接的AG1，获取免费物品。你可以在Twitter上找到我，用户名是DillonLumus22。希望你有愉快的一天，如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。非常感谢所有资助我的Patreon支持者。