Tesla's Latest "More Than a Car Company" Flex / VW Back to Drawing Board ⚡️
发布时间 2023-05-10 20:34:49 来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host Dylan Lumis, so I'm sure most of you saw Tesla's groundbreaking ceremony for the lithium refinery outside of Corpus Christi, Texas. But the main takeaways? Tesla will be one of, if not the first, to use an acid-free refining technique that creates sand and limestone byproducts rather than hazardous waste. They'll employ around 250 full-time employees and aim to produce enough lithium for 1 million vehicles per year.
欢迎来到Electrified，我是主持人Dylan Lumis。我相信大多数人都看到了特斯拉在德克萨斯州Corpus Christi市场外进行的锂矿开采典礼。但这项计划的主要亮点是什么呢？特斯拉将采用一种不需酸法提纯技术，这将产生沙子和石灰石副产品，而非危险废物。他们将聘用大约250名全职员工，并着眼于每年生产足够的锂，足以支持100万辆汽车的需要。
But the start of the show was the Cybertruck and the custom rack over the vault. Perhaps this is a product from Tesla's in-house Cybertruck accessory scene that we heard about last month. And I think we were all expecting it, but the frameless window design seems to be confirmed. Tesla has been late before, but the current timeline construction is now, they're expecting to finish it next year, and then they said full volume production about one year later, sometime in 2025.
这场表演的起点是Cybertruck和它上面的定制货架。也许这是特斯拉上个月我们听说过的内部Cybertruck附件场景产品。我认为我们都在期待这个，但无框玻璃设计似乎已经得到确认。特斯拉以前曾经迟到过，但现在当前时间表是他们计划在明年完成它，然后大量生产需要在一年后，也就是2025年的某个时候。
They also said this refinery will produce more battery-grade lithium than all North American refineries combined. Former Tesla employee Owen Diaz, who claimed racial discrimination at Tesla and was initially awarded 137 million, then it was dropped to 15 million, then he denied that, then the second trial ended at 3.2 million. Well, now apparently he's asking for a third trial. A hearing on his motion for a mistrial is scheduled to be held July 19th.
他们还说，这个精炼厂将会生产比北美所有精炼厂更多的电池级锂。前特斯拉员工欧文·迪亚兹声称在特斯拉受到了种族歧视，起初被判赔偿1.37亿美元，然后降至1500万美元，然后他否认了，现在他显然正在要求第三次审判。针对他的撤诉申请的听证会定于7月19日举行。
For the first week in May for Tesla China Weekly Insurance Numbers, it was 5,900. Plugging that data for the fifth week of quarter two into the table, if you wanted to compare it to the same week in quarter one, that number was 8,643. However, he have to remember, Tesla China was shut down from April 30th to about May 4th for the national holiday. We won't stay here so pause if you'd like, but here's that same data in bar chart form, and again, this slowdown right here was to be expected.
在5月的第一周，特斯拉中国的每周保险数为5,900。将该数据放入第二季度第五周的表格中，如果您想将其与第一季度同一周进行比较，该数字为8,643。然而，我们必须记住，特斯拉中国在4月30日至5月4日期间关闭了业务以庆祝国庆节。如果您愿意，我们可以停顿一下。但是，这种减缓是可以预料的，以下是同一数据的柱状图形式。
And we did get the breakdown for Tesla China in April when it comes to the wholesale number, 39.9000 were sold domestically, 35.8000 were exported. So here's that data plugged into the table, and if any of you happen to have the official production number for Tesla China for March, please let me know below, then I can update the inventory number. We already talked about how the wholesale figure was the best number for the first month of a quarter, but my only other real takeaway is the unwinding of the wave in action.
在四月份，我们获得了特斯拉中国的批发数据，国内销售数量为39,900辆，出口量为35,800辆。下面是这些数据填入表格，如果您有三月份的官方生产数量，请在下方告诉我，我可以更新库存数量。我们已经讨论过批发数是季度初最好的数据，但我唯一的另一个收获是行动浪潮的缓解。
You can see the first month of the quarter domestic delivery numbers. Over time, the highest previous watermark was 26.8000, and for April they were at 39.9. Remember, April's an outlier due to the covid shutdowns, but the opposite is true on the export side, looking at the first month of each quarter, they were pretty consistently higher, 40,000, 54,000, 39,000, and it's coming down this time in April, 35.8000. So Tesla definitely smoothing out the delivery wave balance between exports and domestic sales in the first month of the quarter.
您可以看到本季度首个月的国内交付数字。随着时间的推移，之前的最高水位线是26.8000，而4月份的数字达到了39.9。请记住，由于covid停工，4月份是一个异常值，但是在出口方面正好相反，看看每个季度的第一个月，它们相当一致地更高，分别是40,000、54,000、39,000，而这一次在4月份下降到了35.8000。因此，特斯拉肯定在季度的第一个月平衡出口和国内销售的交付浪潮。
Berlinergy shared a Tesla stock note from Barclays. Tesla saw a 25% global BEV share in March and increased from the 18-21% range it's seen over recent months. And they added, we appreciate that the price cuts at least appear to be translating to stronger Tesla BEV market share, particularly in regions where competition is increasing, even though we know this BEV market share is not what Tesla is focused on.
Berlinergy分享了巴克莱发布的一则泰斯拉股票研究记录。统计显示，三月份全球电动汽车市场中，泰斯拉的市场份额占比达到了25%，相较于近几个月的18-21%有所增加。同时，他们表示，我们认为，即使在竞争加剧的区域，泰斯拉的降价措施至少表现出了对泰斯拉电动汽车市场份额的提升，尽管我们知道泰斯拉的主要关注点并不在此。
And just because Tesla is not focusing on the EV market share does not mean that Wall Street is going to throw that metric out, they will very closely still be watching it so as a Tesla investor, it'll still be important for us to keep up with it. We have the Swedish Civil contingencies agency doing some research using data from 2022, saying gasoline and diesel-powered cars are 19 times more likely to catch on fire than EVs. The number of fires in electric cars has remained around 20 per year for the last three years, even though the number of electric cars has almost doubled to nearly 611,000 in Sweden.
特斯拉不关注电动汽车市场份额，并不意味着华尔街会抛弃这一指标，相反，他们仍然会密切关注它。因此，作为特斯拉的投资者，我们仍然需要关注市场份额。根据瑞典民事应急管理局的研究，使用2022年的数据，汽油和柴油车起火的可能性比电动车高19倍。尽管瑞典的电动车数量几乎翻了一番，达到了近61.1万辆，但电动汽车的火灾数量在过去的三年里一直保持在每年约20次左右。
I think most of us already understand the truth of this narrative, but I will include a link to this study below in case it's something you want to bookmark and share in the future. And yet another Tesla stock note from Morgan Stanley, they're saying again, in our view, the speed of the China EV export story may take investors by surprise. This note was done in conjunction with an analyst from EV volumes, but they came to the conclusion the China data is clear.
我认为大部分人已经了解这个故事的真相，但是我将在下面附上一份研究链接，以备将来您想加为书签并分享。再次来自摩根士丹利的特斯拉股票笔记，他们再次表示，我们认为，中国电动汽车出口速度可能会让投资者感到惊讶。这篇笔记与EV volumes的分析师一起完成，但他们得出的结论是中国的数据清晰明了。
The domestic market is slowing and car makers need to start exporting to other regions. There's a government mandate out of Beijing to begin exporting vehicles and domestic players must have a plan for it. BYD just hired a chief designer from Audi and you likely see a new generation of European looking, European acceptable cars that will attract European buyers. We have Gigatexis finally reaching the volume production threshold of 5000 model wise per week on May 9th.
国内市场正在放缓，汽车制造商需要开始向其他地区出口。北京已颁布政府指令，要求开始出口汽车，国内参与者必须有一个计划。比亚迪刚刚聘请了一位奥迪的首席设计师，很可能会推出一种新一代的欧洲风格、欧洲市场认可的汽车，吸引欧洲买家。我们终于在5月9日看到吉卡特克斯达到了每周5000辆车的量产门槛。
So now that both Gigabrelin and Gigatexis have hit the 5000 unit per week number, we can take a look and see how long it's taken each. Gigabrelin had roughly a two and a half week head start, but it was first to hit the 1000 per week and the 2000 per week. But then Gigatexis actually hit 3000 per week and 253 days when it took Gigabrelin 273.
现在，既然Gigabrelin和Gigatexis都达到了每周5000个单位的生产数字，我们可以看看它们的生产时间。Gigabrelin大约花了两周半的时间领先，但它是第一个达到每周1000和2000个单位的产品。但随后Gigatexis在生产了253天后实际上达到了每周3000个单位，而Gigabrelin则需要273天。
But Gigabrelin quickly took back the lead when it comes to the 4000 per week number and Gigabrelin even accounting for the head start still hit the volume production number slightly ahead of Gigatexis. But all things considered with the 4680s taking a back seat in Gigabrelin and thus the structural pack because of the IRA and the 4680s being prioritized in Gigatexis, then Gigatexis having its own challenges with the structural pack and more of a focus on the 4680s as well as getting ready for cyber truck production, Gigatexis may be starting to show its bigger capacity relative to the much smaller Gigabrelin.
尽管吉加布雷林在每周生产4000个电池方面领先了吉卡德西斯，但吉加布雷林即使考虑到了领先的优势，也略微领先于吉卡德西斯。然而，考虑到吉加布雷林的4680电池和结构性电池因IRA而处于次要地位，而4680电池在吉卡德西斯中得到优先考虑，吉卡德西斯有自己的结构性电池问题，还有更多的重点放在4680电池和准备生产Cybertruck上，相对于较小的吉加布雷林，吉卡德西斯可能正在展现出其更大的生产能力。
And here's a quick visual of that same data from Roland on Twitter. And remember, run rates are not going to be the same thing as ultimate production, but with Shanghai around a million, Giga Austin and Gigabrelin now around 500,000 combined and freemont between 6 and 700,000 per year, Tesla is now at a run rate between 2.1 to 2.2 million cars per year, sneaking up very quickly on BMW.
以下是Roland在Twitter上发布的同样数据的简要可视化。请记住，运行速率不等同于最终产量，但在上海约一百万辆，Giga Austin和Gigabrelin现在合计约五十万辆，而弗里蒙特每年产量在6到7百万之间，特斯拉现在的运行速率在每年210到220万辆之间，正在迅速接近宝马。
And the first model wide deliveries in Torrequille have begun. Electric shared a Tesla recruiter on LinkedIn was talking about a new job Tesla was hiring for in the title, Passive Safety Crash Test Lab. Then in tandem we learned that Tesla is building a new crash test lab in Austin. We don't really have any other information on this project, but here's the job listing description if you're interested.
在Torrequille开始了第一批Model wide的交付。在领英上，一名Tesla的招聘工作人员提到了一个新职位，被称为被动安全碰撞测试实验室。接着我们得知，Tesla正在奥斯汀建造一个新的碰撞测试实验室。我们对这个项目没有太多其他信息，但如果您感兴趣，这里是工作职位描述。
Over the weekend, Elon said arguably, FSD beta version 11.4 should be version 12.0 as there are so many major improvements. V12 is reserved for when FSD is end to end AI from images into steering, breaks and acceleration out. And replying to Tesla Synopsis, Elon said once FSD is super smooth, not just safe, we will roll out a freemont trial for all cars in North America, then extend to the rest of the world after we ensure it works well on local roads and regulators approve it in that country. The only problem here is this super smooth requirement is very subjective, so that could mean many different timelines.
上周末，埃隆表示，可以说FSD测试版11.4应该是12.0版本，因为有太多的重大改进。版本12将保留给当FSD成为端到端AI，从图像输入到方向盘、刹车和加速输出。而回复特斯拉梗概时，埃隆表示，一旦FSD变得非常顺畅，而不仅仅是安全，我们将为北美所有汽车提供免费试用，然后在确保它在当地道路上运行良好并得到监管机构的批准后将其扩展到全球。唯一的问题是这个“非常顺畅”的要求非常主观，所以可能意味着很多不同的时间表。
There was a report going around that Tesla was going to start production of the new refreshed Model 3 project, Highland, but Tesla China denied the authenticity of that news report as of yesterday. Honestly though, even if Tesla was going to start production of this new vehicle soon, I think they would deny it until they were doing it just to avoid the Osborne effect.
有一份报告流传说特斯拉将开始生产新款精心设计的Model 3项目，名为“Highland”，但特斯拉中国昨天否认了该新闻报道的真实性。但说实话，即使特斯拉很快要开始生产这款新车，我认为他们也会否认直到他们实际开始生产，以避免奥斯本效应的影响。
I can't confirm this data personally, but we have electric Felix on Twitter reporting that super charging prices are going down in multiple European countries, so just wanted to put it out there.
我个人无法证实这些数据的真实性，但我们有一个名为Electric Felix的推特用户报告说，多个欧洲国家的超级充电价格正在下降，因此我只是想将这一消息放出来。
In what should be a surprise to no one, VW is going to dismiss all but one of the executive board members at the Software Division Carried, it has exceeded its budget and failed to meet goals.
众所周知，大众汽车公司将解雇除了一位高管以外的其它软件部门的执行委员会成员，因为该部门的预算超支并未达成目标，这并不令人意外。
Volvo put out a quick teaser on its upcoming smaller SUV dubbed the EX-30 that's going to make its debut on June 7th, reservations will be opening to American customers on the same day. For now though, this is pretty much all we get.
沃尔沃发布了即将推出的EX-30小型SUV的简短预告，该车将于6月7日首次亮相，美国客户也将在同一天开启预订。但现在，这几乎是我们所能得到的所有信息。
Ford has yet again adjusted the pricing for the F-150 Lightning, some models are up, other models are down, and the most affordable variant the Pro is actually sold out for the 2023 model year. So just in case anyone is in the market for this vehicle, you may want to go have a look.
福特公司再次调整了F-150闪电版的定价，一些车型的价格上涨，而其他车型的价格下降，而最实惠的车型Pro在2023年的车型中已经售罄。因此，如果有人正在考虑购买这款车型，可能需要前往车店了解一下。
Porsche is now teaming up with Mobileye for advanced driver assistance systems. Porsche is planning to integrate mobileized supervision into its future models. This is pretty big news because Porsche of all companies would want its customers actually driving its vehicles, but they did say there are certain aspects of partially automated driving they're interested in, such as not having to keep hands on the wheel the entire time in a traffic jam.
保时捷现在正在与Mobileye合作推出先进的驾驶辅助系统。保时捷计划将移动化监督融入其未来的车型中。这是一个相当重要的消息，因为保时捷作为一家汽车公司，希望让其客户真正驾驶其车辆，但他们确实表示对部分自动驾驶的某些方面感兴趣，例如在交通堵塞期间不必一直保持手握着方向盘。
From Reuters Panasonic is expecting its net profit to grow 32% from one year earlier, thanks to the IRA tax credits, boosting its bottom line by $100 billion or about $750 million. More importantly, Panasonic's CFO said over the past two years we were greatly affected by a surge in raw material prices and a lack of parts and semiconductors, but those negative effects will largely go away this year.
据路透社报道，由于获得了IRA税收抵免，松下预计净利润将比去年增长32%，从而使其底线增加1000亿日元，约为7.5亿美元。更重要的是，松下的首席财务官表示，在过去两年中，我们受到原材料价格暴涨和零部件及半导体供应不足的严重影响，但这些负面影响今年将大幅消失。
More data to back up that thesis, Toyota just said it expects its operating profit to go up 10% this fiscal year, amid an easing in the global supply chain disruption from a shortage of chips. Speaking of Toyota, they're planning to unveil its next generation EV at the Tokyo Auto Show that is scheduled for later this year, October 26th. This upcoming EV from Toyota is supposed to make its debut in 2026.
Toyota发表声明称，预计今年财政年度的营业利润将增长10％，这进一步支持了这一论点。全球芯片短缺的供应链紊乱正在减轻。谈到丰田，他们计划在10月26日举办的东京车展上推出下一代电动汽车。这款即将推出的电动汽车预计将于2026年首次亮相。
Rivian stock is up about 10% over the last five days, mainly driven by its earnings, losing less money than expected, and bringing in more revenue than expected. Rivian's cash balance declined $300 million during the quarter, currently sits at $11.8 billion. Most importantly, Rivian said it remains on track to hit the full year production guidance of 50,000, which would be double what it made in 2022.
最近五天，Rivian的股票上涨了约10％，主要是由其收入推动的，亏损低于预期，收入高于预期。Rivian在该季度现金余额下降了3亿美元，目前为118亿美元。最重要的是，Rivian表示仍致力于实现全年生产指南的50000辆车的目标，这将是其2022年产量的两倍。
Lucid, on the other hand, said it remains on track to produce over 10,000 vehicles this year, but previously the guidance was 10 to 14,000, and that was already adjusted from a few months prior. The main storyline for Lucid has been when it will be forced to raise more capital. They ended the first quarter with $3.4 billion in cash, and said that should be sufficient to fund the company at least until the second quarter of 2024.
另一方面，卢西德表示仍会按计划在今年生产超过10,000辆汽车，但之前的指导数字是10,000至14,000，而这已经在几个月前进行了调整。卢西德的主要故事情节是何时被迫筹集更多资金。他们第一季度结束时有34亿美元的现金，并表示这应该足够资助公司至少到2024年第二季度。
GM is planning to re-enter the European market, targeting Nordic countries first, with sales of an all-electric portfolio. At least part of this reentry for GM will start with the lyric, but we didn't really get any other detail on what other models to expect.
通用汽车计划重新进入欧洲市场，首先瞄准北欧国家，并推出全电动车系列。GM 的重新进入市场至少部分将以 Lyric 为开端，但我们没有得到其他车型的详细信息。
Tesla put out a very cool, very cinematic video going over how it does some extreme weather testing, specifically for the heat in the UAE. Definitely worth a watch, I'll have it linked below.
特斯拉发布了一段非常酷、非常电影化的视频，介绍了它是如何进行极端天气测试的，特别是在阿联酋的炎热天气下。绝对值得一看，下面会提供链接。
To those of you interested in an update on my health journey with this parasite situation, I plan to record a video and make it unlisted, but I'll let you know when I do that. You can find me on Twitter at Dylan Loomis22, I hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
对于那些关心我与寄生虫情况的健康旅程的人，我计划录制一段视频并将其设为不公开，但我会让你们知道何时可以观看。你们可以通过我的Twitter账户 Dylan Loomis22 找到我，祝你们有一个美好的一天。如果你们喜欢这个视频，请点赞，非常感谢所有我的Patreon赞助者。