#252 – Elon Musk: SpaceX, Mars, Tesla Autopilot, Self-Driving, Robotics, and AI
发布时间 2021-12-28 19:02:28 来源
The following is a conversation with Elon Musk. His third time on this, the Lex Friedman podcast. And now a quick few seconds mention of each sponsor. Check them out in the description. It's the best way to support this podcast.
下面是与伊隆·马斯克的对话。这是他第三次参加Lex Friedman的播客节目。现在是几个赞助商的简短介绍。请在描述中查看他们。这是支持这个播客的最佳方式。
First is the Theta Greens, the all-in-one nutrition drink I drink twice a day. Second is butcher box, high quality meat that makes up most of my diet. Third is inside tracker, a service I use to track my biological data. Fourth is roca, my favorite sunglasses and prescription glasses. And fifth is eight sleep, a self-cooling mattress color I sleep on. So the choice is nutrition, food, health, style, or sleep. Choose wisely, my friends.
首先是Theta Greens，这是我每天喝两次的全营养饮料。其次是Butcher Box，高质量的肉是我饮食的主要组成部分。第三是Inside Tracker，这是我用来跟踪生物数据的服务。第四是Roca，我的最爱的太阳镜和处方眼镜。第五是Eight Sleep，我睡觉的自冷却床垫。所以选择是营养、食物、健康、风格或睡眠。朋友们要明智地选择。
And now onto the full ad reads. As always, no ads in the middle. I tried to make this interesting, but if you skipped them, please still check out the sponsors. I enjoy their stuff. Maybe you will too.
现在开始全文广告宣读。一如既往，没有中途插入的广告。我尽力让它们有趣，但如果您跳过了它们，请仍然支持广告赞助商。我喜欢他们的产品，也许您也会喜欢。
This show is brought to you by Theta Greens. And it's newly named AG1 Drink, which is an all-in-one daily drink to support better health and peak performance. It replaced a multivitamin for me. It went far beyond that with 75 vitamins and minerals. It's the first thing I drink every day. I drink it twice a day. In fact, I drink it after a long run. I recently did a 16-mile run. And I can't tell you how good it felt to get back and pour myself a refreshing athletic greens and start the day.
这档节目由Theta Greens赞助。他们最新推出的AG1 Drink是一种全能日常饮料，可以帮助提高健康和表现的水平。对我来说，它已经可以取代多种维生素补充品了。它含有75种维生素和矿物质，绝对是我每天第一件要喝的东西。我每天会喝两次，而且跑完步后也会喝一次。最近我跑了16英里，回来后喝上一杯清爽的Athletic Greens，开始新的一天的感觉真好。
I ran fasted. And that's probably one of my favorite things to do. Run for a long period of time, an empty stomach thinking through the problems of the day or the problems of life in general. And then get back to sort of ground, to normal life, by drinking athletic greens, getting the shower, and just hitting the ground running with a little bit of coffee and focus. Anyway, they'll give you one month supply of fish oil when you sign up at athletic greens.com slash Lex. That's athletic greens.com slash Lex.
我会跑得很快，这可能是我最喜欢的事情之一。在空腹的情况下长时间奔跑，思考当天或一般生活中的问题。然后，通过喝运动绿色饮料，洗澡，并喝点咖啡以及集中注意力的方式回归到现实生活中。无论如何，当你在athleticgreens.com/ Lex注册时，他们会给你一个月的鱼油供应。这是athleticgreens.com/ Lex。
This show is brought to you by Butcherbox. High quality meat that is pretty much the only thing I eat. They ship a box of meat to your home, eight to 14 pounds of it. You can pick a pre-made box or customize one, which is what I do. And that's it. It's pretty simple. I've spoken about this before. I think meat of different kinds is a makes up a large part of my diet. I just feel good when I consume a large amount of meat. It's not an allergy thing. It's not some kind of reducing inflammation thing. I don't know what it is because I also'm pretty happy eating carbs as well.
这个节目由Butcherbox赞助，他们提供高质量的肉类，这几乎是我唯一吃的食物。他们会把一箱8到14磅的肉寄到你家，你可以选择预先制作好的盒子，也可以自定义制作。就是这样，非常简单。我之前谈到过这个话题，我认为不同种类的肉是我饮食中很大一部分的内容。当我吃了大量的肉类时，我觉得很好。这不是过敏问题，也不是某种减少炎症的问题。我不知道这是什么原因，因为我也很喜欢吃碳水化合物。
I just feel better. I'm happier. I can perform better, both physically and mentally when I consume a large amount of meat, whether that's a carnivore or keto diet. I just feel great. And Butcherbox is just high quality meat that I can rely on. There's all kinds of cuts there, but ground beef is the basics and the thing I love the most.
我只是觉得更舒服了。当我摄入大量肉类，无论是肉食动物还是凯特乐饮食，我的身体和精神状态都变得更好，我更快乐，表现也更出色。我感觉很棒。而ButcherBox就是我可以信赖的高质量肉类。那里有各种各样的肉块，但碎牛肉是我最喜欢的基础食材。
For limited time, Butcherbox is offering new members a great deal for the new year. Sign up at Butcherbox.com slash Lex. And you'll receive the ultimate New Year's bundle in your first box. This deal includes ground beef, chicken thighs, and more. That's more than 7 pounds of meat added to your first box for free. Get this New Year's bundle before it's gone by going to Butcherbox.com slash Lex.
有限时间内，Butcherbox为新会员提供了一个新年的特别优惠。在Butcherbox.com/Lex注册，您将在您的第一个盒子中获得终极新年捆绑包。此交易包括绞肉，鸡腿等。这相当于超过7磅肉加入您的第一个盒子中，全部免费。赶快去Butcherbox.com/Lex获取这个新年捆绑包，别让它错过了。
This show is also brought to you by Inside Tracker, a service I use to track biological data. They have a bunch of plans, most of which include a blood test that gives you a lot of information that you can then make decisions based on. They have algorithms. I love the world of algorithms that analyze your blood data, DNA data, and fitness tracker data to provide you with a clear picture of what's going on inside you and to offer you signs back recommendations for positive diet and lifestyle changes.
这个节目也由Inside Tracker带给大家，这是我用来跟踪生物数据的一项服务。他们有很多计划，其中大部分包括一项血液测试，可以给你很多信息，以便基于这些信息做出决策。他们有算法，我喜欢算法的世界，可以分析你的血液数据、DNA数据和健身追踪器数据，为你提供一个清晰的内部状况，然后向你提供积极的饮食和生活方式的建议。
Andrew Huberman, the great, the powerful Andrew Huberman talks a lot about it. David St. Clair, you by the way, it was just on his podcast that you should check out. Also talks a lot about it in my conversation with him and in his conversation with others. I love this idea. It feels like the future. You should definitely be making lifestyle and health decision based on actual data connected to you, not just the general population. You are a special unique biological fingerprint that requires unique treatment, unique lifestyle decisions. For a limited time, you can get 25% off the entire Inside Tracker store if you go to inside tracker.com slash Lex. That's Inside Tracker.com slash Lex.
雄厚有力的安德鲁·休伯曼（Andrew Huberman）经常讨论这个话题。顺便说一下，David St. Clair在他的播客中也谈到了这个问题，你应该去看看。在我和他还有其他人的对话中，他也经常谈及此事。我喜欢这个想法，它给人一种未来的感觉。你应该根据你自己的实际数据做出生活和健康决策，而不是只考虑一般人群。你是一个独特的生物指纹，需要独特的治疗和生活方式决策。现在，你可以在Inside Tracker网站上输入Lex的代码以获得整个Inside Tracker商店25％的折扣，这个优惠时间有限，所以赶紧行动吧。
This show is brought to you by Roca, the maker of glasses and sunglasses that I love wearing for their design feel and innovation on materials, optics, and grip. Roca was started by two all-American swimmers from Stanford and was born out of an obsession with performance. Like I said, I love the word obsession and performance.
这个节目由Roca带给大家，他们是我的眼镜和太阳镜制造商，我喜欢他们的设计感和在材料、光学和握持方面的创新。Roca由两位斯坦福大学的美国游泳运动员创立，他们痴迷于性能而诞生了这个品牌。就像我说的，我喜欢那个单词，痴迷和性能。
And I got a chance to meet and hang out with a bunch with one of those founders, Rob, an incredible human being here in Austin. They have a facility here in Austin. It's just cool to see people at the top of their game in terms of both design and manufacturing and all that kind of stuff..
我得到了一个机会，与这些创始人之一罗布见面并一起闲逛，他是一个令人难以置信的人，居住在奥斯汀这里。他们在奥斯汀有一个设施。看到那些在设计和制造等方面处于巅峰状态的人，真的很酷。
These glasses, first of all, look badass, look amazing. But they're also designed to be active in. Extremely lightweight. The grip is comfortable but strong. And the style, I said badass, but it's a badass in a classy way. It holds up in all conditions when I'm wearing a suit or wearing running gear, including on long runs in 100 degree Austin weather or in freezing, Boston weather, both work.
首先，这副眼镜看起来很炫酷，很惊艳。但是，它们也是设计用于活动的。非常轻便。握感舒适而有力。而且款式，我说过很炫酷，但也是一种优雅的炫酷。无论我穿着西装还是跑步服，在各种条件下都能经受住考验，包括在100度奥斯汀天气下跑长跑或在冰冻的波士顿天气下，这两种情况都能胜任。
Check them out for both prescription glasses and sunglasses at roca.com and enter code Lex to save 20% off your first order. That's roca.com and enter code Lex.
去roca.com看看他们的处方眼镜和太阳镜，输入代码Lex来节省首单20%的费用。这就是roca.com和输入代码Lex。
This episode is also brought to you by Aitsleep and it's Pod Pro mattress. It controls temperature with an app. It's packed with sensors. It can cool down to as low as 65 degrees and each side of the bed separately.
这一集也由Aitsleep和它的Pod Pro床垫赞助。它可以通过一个应用程序控制温度，配备了许多传感器，可以将床温降至65度，还可以分别对床的两侧进行温度控制。
Given that I just got out of said bed, I could tell you because it's a short-term memory that the thing feels incredible.
由于我刚刚离开床上，我可以告诉你，因为这是短期记忆，那个东西感觉不可思议。
There's very few things that enjoy in life. As much as a power nap or full night sleep on a cooled bed with a warm blanket, my mind empty of thoughts having fought the battles of the day and just the resting, escaping it all in a little bit of a dream world. Alice in Wonderland, but unlike Lex in Wonderland.
在生活中真正能让我享受的事情非常少。像在被冷却了的床上盖着暖暖的毯子睡午觉或整夜，我的头脑中没有杂念，已经打完今天的战斗，只需小憩，逃离了一切，进入了梦境。就像《爱丽丝梦游仙境》，但不像《编码战士梦游仙境》。
They have a Pod Pro cover so you can just add that to your mattress without having to buy theirs. But their mattress is nice too. They can track a bunch of metrics like heart rate variability but cooling alone is worth the money.
他们有一个 Pod Pro 的保护罩，这样你就可以不用买他们的床垫，直接把它加到你的床上。但是他们的床垫也很不错。它们可以跟踪一堆指标，比如心率变异性，但单单冷却已经值得购买了。
Go to asleep.com slashlex to get special savings that's at sleep.com slashlex. And I will meet you there, my friend, in the dream world.
去到asleep.com斜杠lex获取特别的优惠，就在sleep.com斜杠lex。我的朋友，我会在那里与你相会，在梦想的世界里。
This is the Lex Friedman podcast and here is my conversation with Elon Musk.
这是Lex Friedman的播客，接下来是我和伊隆·马斯克的对话。
Music
None
Yeah, make yourself comfortable.
嗯，让自己感到舒适些。
Boo.
None
Wow, okay. Do you don't do the headphone thing?
哇，好的。你不用耳机吗？
No.
None
Okay. How close do I get me to get this thing?
好的。我需要多接近才能拿到这个东西？
To close your other sexier song.
把你的其他性感歌曲关掉。
Hey babe.
嘿宝贝。
Yeah, get enough of the audio.
是啊，确保听到足够的音频。
Baby.
None
I'm gonna clip that out. Anytime somebody messes with me about it.
如果有人在这个问题上惹麻烦，我就会夹下来。
You watch my body and you think I'm sexy.
你观察我的身体并且认为我很性感。
Come right out and tell me so.
直截了当地告诉我。
Do you do? Do you do?
你好吗？你好吗？
So good. So good. Okay, serious mode activate.
太好了。太好了。好的，进入认真模式。
All right. The serious mode.
好的，认真模式。
Come on, you're Russian. You can be serious. Everyone's serious all the time in Russia.
加油，你是俄罗斯人。你可以认真一点。在俄罗斯人人都很认真。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah, we'll get there. We'll get there. Yeah, it's gotten soft.
是的，我们会到达那里的。我们会到达那里的。是的，它变得柔软了。
Allow me to say that the SpaceX launch of human beings to orbit on May 30, 2020 was seen by many as the first step in a new era of human space exploration.
请允许我说，2020年5月30日的SpaceX人类轨道发射被许多人看作是人类太空探索新时代的第一步。
These human spaceflight missions were a beacon of hope to me and to millions over the past two years as our world has been going through one of the most difficult periods in recent human history. We saw, we see the rise of division, fear, cynicism and the loss of common humanity right when it is needed most.
在过去的两年间，这些载人航天任务成为了我和数百万人的希望之光。我们的世界正经历着最近人类历史上最困难的时期，出现了分裂、恐惧、玩世不恭以及对共同人性的失落。
So first, Elon, let me say thank you for giving the world hope and reason to be excited about the future.
首先，伊隆，让我说声谢谢，因为你为世界带来了希望，让我们对未来充满了期待。
Oh, it's kind of you to say it. I do want to do that. Humanity has obviously a lot of issues and you know, people at times do, you know, do bad things, but you know, despite all that, you know, I love humanity and I think we should make sure we do everything we can to have a good future and an exciting future and one where that maximizes the happiness of the people.
哦，你的话真让人感动。我真心想这么做。我们人类显然有很多问题，人们有时确实会做坏事，但是，尽管如此，我仍然热爱人类，并认为我们应该尽一切可能让未来变得美好和充满期待，让人们的幸福得到最大程度的实现。
Let me ask about KooDragon demo 2. So that first flight with humans on board, how did you feel leading up to that launch? We scared. We excited. I was going through your mind. How much was it stake?
让我问一下KooDragon演示2的事。第一次载人飞行的时候，你在准备发射之前的感受如何？我们很害怕，但也很兴奋。你的内心在想些什么？这其中有多少风险？
Yeah, no, that was extremely stressful. No question. We obviously could not let them down in any way. So extremely stressful, I'd say. To say the least.
啊，不，那真的是非常有压力。毫无疑问。我们显然不能在任何方面让他们失望。我会说非常有压力。至少可以这么说。
But we did, I was confident that at the time that we launched that no one could think of anything at all to do that would improve the probability of success and we racked our brains to think of any possible way to improve the probability of success. We cannot think of anything more and no good NASA and so that's just the best that we could do. So then we had we went ahead and launched.
当时我们发射时非常有信心，认为除了我们想尽的一切改善成功率的方法外，似乎已经无从改进。我们曾费尽心思，但却没有更好的方法，甚至NASA也没有，所以那就是我们最好的选择。因此我们继续发射了。
Now I'm not a religious person, but I nonetheless got on my knees and prayed for that mission.
我并不是一个信奉宗教的人，但我还是跪下来为那次任务祈祷了。
Were you able to sleep?
你睡得着吗？
No.
None
How did I feel when it was a success? First, when the launch was a success and when they returned back home or back to earth?
成功的时候我感觉如何？首先，当发射成功以及他们回到家或回到地球时，我是怎么感觉的？
It was a great relief. Yeah. For a high stress situation, I find it's not so much elation as relief. And I think once as we got more comfortable and proved out the systems because we really got to make sure everything works, it was definitely a lot more enjoyable with the subsequent astronaut missions.
这真是解除心中大石的好感啊。是啊。我发现在高压情况下，我不是那么兴奋，而是感到轻松了许多。我们必须确保所有系统都能正常工作，这是我们变得更加舒适并实现这些任务时非常重要的事。我们的下一趟太空航行一定会更加愉快。
And I thought the inspiration mission was actually very inspiring, inspiration for mission. I'd encourage people to watch the inspiration documentary on Netflix. It's actually really good. And it really isn't so I was actually inspired by that..
我认为这个启发任务真的非常启发人心，给我带来了启发，激发了我的使命感。我鼓励大家在Netflix上观看这个启发纪录片，它真的很棒。它实际上非常激励人心，因此我受到启发。
So that one I felt I was able to enjoy the actual mission, not just be too stressed all the time. For people that somehow don't know, it's the all civilian first time, all civilian out to space, out to orbit. Yeah. I think the highest orbit that in like 30 or 40 years or something, the only one that was higher was the one shuttle, sorry, a Hubble servicing mission. And then before that, it would have been Apollo in 72. It's pretty wild. So it's cool. It's good.
我感觉我能够享受实际的任务，而不是一直感到压力太大。对于一些不知道情况的人，这是所有平民首次进入太空、进入轨道。是的，我认为这是30或40年来最高的轨道，唯一比这更高的是哈勃望远镜维修任务。在此之前，可能是1972年的阿波罗任务。这很酷，很棒。
I think as a species, we want to be continuing to do better and reach higher ground. And I think it would be tragic, extremely tragic if Apollo was the high watermark for humanity and that's as far as we ever got. And it's concerning that here we are, 49 years after the last mission to the moon. And so almost half a century. And we've not been back. And that's worrying. It's like, is that, does that mean we've peaked as a civilization or what? So we've got to get back to the moon and build a base there, a science base. I think we could learn a lot about the nature of the universe if we have a proper science base on the moon.
我认为，作为一个物种，我们希望不断进步，达到更高的层次。如果阿波罗计划是人类的顶峰，而我们再也无法向上走，那会是极其悲惨的。可是49年过去了，上一次登月的任务已经完成，我们还没有重返月球。这让人担忧，我们是不是已经作为一种文明达到了巅峰？因此我们必须返回月球，在那里建立一个科学基地。如果我们在月球上有一个恰当的科学基地，我认为我们可以更好地了解宇宙的本质。
You know, like we have a science base in Antarctica and many other parts of the world. So that's the next big thing. We've got to have a serious moon base and then get people to Mars and get out there and be a space-prank civilization. I'll ask you about some of those details.
你知道的，就像我们在南极洲和世界其他许多地方都有科学基地。所以这是下一个大事。我们必须有一个严肃的月球基地，然后让人们登上火星，走出去成为一个太空颁奖文明。我会问你一些关于这些细节的问题。
But since you're so busy with the hard engineering challenges of everything that's involved, are you still able to marvel at the magic of it all of space travel? Of every time the rocket goes up, especially when it's a crewed mission? Are you just so overwhelmed with all the challenges that you have to solve? And actually, sort of to add to that, the reason I wanted to ask this question of May 30th, it's been some time so you can look back and think about the impact already. It's already at the time it was an engineering problem maybe. Now it's becoming a historic moment. Like it's a moment that how many moments would be remembered about the 21st century? To me, that or something like that maybe inspiration for one of those would be remembered as the early steps of a new age of space exploration.
因为你非常忙于应对所有有关的技术难题，那么你还能否对太空旅行的一切魔力感到惊叹呢？每次火箭升空，特别是载人任务时，你是否会感到不堪重负？或者你很感激这些挑战，因为它们让你受到启迪？实际上，补充一下，我为什么在5月30日要问这个问题，是因为已经过了一段时间，所以你现在可以回顾并思考已经产生的影响。当时那只是一个工程问题，但现在它已经成为历史时刻。21世纪会有多少个时刻被铭记呢？对我来说，这个时刻或类似的东西，可能会成为新时代太空探索的早期步骤的灵感。
Yeah. I mean, during the launches itself, I mean, I think maybe some people will know, but a lot of people don't know, I'm actually a chief engineer of SpaceX. So I've signed off on pretty much all the design decisions. And if there's something that goes wrong with that vehicle, it's fundamentally my fault. So I'm really just thinking about all the things that like so.
是的。我的意思是，在发射本身期间，可能有些人知道，但很多人不知道，我实际上是SpaceX的首席工程师。因此，我已经批准了几乎所有的设计决策。如果那辆车出了问题，那基本上就是我的错。所以我真的在考虑所有这样的事情。
So when I see the rocket, I see all the things that could go wrong and the things that could be better and the same with the Dragon Spacecraft. It's like people see, oh, this is a spacecraft or a rocket and that's just looks really cool. I'm like, I've like a readout of like, these are the risks. These are the problems. That's what I see. Like not what other people see when they see the product, you know?
当我看到火箭时，我会想到可能出现的问题和哪些方面需要改进，龙飞船也一样。其他人可能只会觉得很酷，但我会意识到所有的风险和问题。就像当他们看到产品时，他们看到的不是我看到的东西，你知道吗？
So let me ask you then to analyze starship in that same way. I know you'll talk about a more detailed about starship in the near future. Perhaps you had that. I don't know if you want. But just in that same way, like you said, you see when you see up, when you see a rocket, you see a sort of a list of risks. In that same way, you said that starship is a really hard problem.
那么让我请你用同样的方式来分析星际飞船。我知道你会在不久的将来谈论更详细的有关星际飞船的事情。或许你已经考虑过了，我不知道你是否想讲一下。但是就像你说的那样，当你看到火箭时，你会看到一系列风险。类似的，你提到星际飞船是一个非常困难的问题。
So many ways I can ask this, but if you magically could solve one problem perfectly, one engineering problem perfectly, which one would it be? On starship?
我可以用很多种方式来问这个问题，但如果你能魔法般地完美解决一个工程问题，你会选择哪个？在星际飞船上吗？
On starship. So is it maybe related to the efficiency, the engine, the weight of the different components, the complexity of various things, maybe the controls of the crazy thing as the due to land?
在星际飞船上，它可能与效率、发动机、不同部件的重量、各种事物的复杂性以及控制着这个疯狂东西的着陆方式有关吗？
No, it's actually the, by far the biggest thing absorbing my time is an engine production. Not the design of the engine. I have often said prototypes are easy production is hard.
不，实际上占用我大部分时间的是发动机生产，这是迄今为止最耗费时间的事情。并不是发动机的设计。我经常说，样机很容易，生产很难。
So we have the most advanced rocket engine that's ever been designed. Because I say currently the best rocket engine ever is probably the RD181 or RD171, the door of Russian engine basically. I think an engine certainly can't if it's gotten something to orbit.
我们拥有迄今为止设计最先进的火箭引擎。因为我认为目前最好的火箭发动机可能是俄罗斯的RD181或RD171，基本上是俄罗斯引擎的门户。我认为一个引擎肯定不能让它完成轨道任务。
So our engine has not gotten anything to orbit yet, but it is, it's the first engine that's actually better than the Russian RD engines, which are amazing design. So you're talking about Raptor engine.
我们的引擎还没有把任何东西送入轨道，但是它是第一个比神奇设计的俄罗斯RD引擎更优秀的引擎。所以你说的是猛禽引擎。
What makes it amazing? What are the different aspects of it that make it like what are you the most excited about if the whole thing works in terms of efficiency, all those kinds of things?
什么让它感觉出色？它具有哪些不同方面，如果整个东西在效率方面都能够工作，你最兴奋的是什么？
Well, its Raptor is a full flow staged combustion engine and it's operating at a very high chamber pressure. So one of the key figures of Merit, perhaps the key figure of Merit is what is the chamber pressure at which the rocket engine can operate? That's the combustion chamber pressure.
嗯，SpaceX的猛禽号发动机是一款全流程分级燃烧发动机，工作时承受非常高的室压。因此，燃室压力可能是燃料火箭发动机的重要性能参数之一，甚至是最重要的性能参数。
So Raptor is designed to operate at 300 bar, possibly maybe higher than standard atmospheres. So the RECord right now for operational engine is the RD engine that I mentioned in the Russian RD, which is I believe around 267 bar. And the difficulty of the chamber pressure is increases on a non-linear basis. So 10% more chamber pressure is more like 50% more difficult.
所以Raptor的设计工作压力是300个巴，或许可能比标准大气压更高。目前可操作引擎的记录是我提到过的俄罗斯RD发动机，我相信它大约是267巴左右。而室压的困难程度是非线性增加的。因此，相对于10%的室压增加，它更像是增加了50%的难度。
But that chamber pressure is what allows you to get a very high power density for the engine. So enabling a very high thrust to weight ratio and a very high specific impulse. So specific impulse is like a measure of the efficiency of a rocket engine. It's really the effective exhaust velocity of the gas coming out of the engine.
不过，这个密闭空间的压力可以让发动机拥有非常高的功率密度。这就使得发动机具有非常高的推重比和特定冲量。特定冲量就像是衡量火箭发动机效率的指标，它实际上是发动机排出的气体有效排出速度。
So with a very high chamber pressure you can have a compact engine that nonetheless has a high expansion ratio, which is the ratio between the exit nozzle and the throat. So you see a rocket engine that's got like sort of like an hourglass shape, it's like a chamber and then it necks down and there's a nozzle and the ratio of the exit diameter to the the throat is an expansion ratio.
通过极高的燃室压力，你可以拥有一个紧凑的引擎，同时具有高的膨胀比，即出口喷嘴和喉部之间的比率。所以，当你看到类似沙漏形状的火箭引擎时，它具有一个燃室然后颈部收缩，再有一个喷嘴，出口直径与喉部之间的比率就是膨胀比。
So why is it such a hard engine to manufacture? A scale. It's very complex. So what does complexity mean here is a lot of components involved? There's a lot of components and a lot of unique materials that so we have to invent several alloys that don't exist in order to make this engine work. So materials problem too.
那么，为什么这个发动机这么难制造呢？是因为一个尺度问题。这个发动机非常复杂。那么在这里，复杂意味着什么呢？意味着有很多组件参与吗？有很多组件和很多独特的材料，所以我们必须发明几种不存在的合金才能让这个发动机工作。所以也存在材料问题。
So a materials problem and in a staged combustion, a full flow staged combustion, there are many feedback loops in the system. So basically you've got propellants and hot gas flowing simultaneously to so many different places on the engine and they all have a recursive effect on each other. So you change one thing here, it has a recursive effect here, it changes something over there and it's quite hard to control. Like there's a reason no one's made this before.
所以在材料问题上，以及在全流式分级燃烧中，系统中有很多反馈回路。所以基本上你有燃料和热气体同时流向发动机上的很多不同位置，它们都对彼此产生了递归作用。所以你在这里改变一件事情，它会对这里产生递归影响，它改变了那里的某些东西，很难控制。就像没有人之前做过这个的原因一样。
But and the reason we're doing a staged combustion full flow is because it has the highest theoretical possible efficiency. So in order to make a fully reusable rocket, which that's the really the holy grail of orbital rocketry, you have to have everything's got to be the best. It's got to be the best engine, the best airframe, the best heat shield, extremely light avionics, very clever control mechanisms.
我们采用分级燃烧全回流技术的原因是它具有最高的理论效率。因此，为了制造完全可重复使用的火箭，这才是轨道火箭研发的圣杯，我们必须要有最好的一切。必须拥有最好的发动机、最好的机身框架、最好的热护盾、非常轻巧的航空电子系统和非常聪明的控制机制。
You've got to shed mass in any possible way that you can. For example, instead of putting landing legs on the booster and ship, we are going to catch them with a tower to save the weight of the landing legs. So that's like, I mean, we're talking about catching the largest flying object ever made on a giant tower with trough stick arms. It's like a cruddy kid with a fly, but much bigger.
你必须以任何可能的方式减轻质量。例如，我们打算用一个塔接住火箭助推器和飞船，而不是在它们上面安装降落脚，这样可以节约重量。也就是说，我们将要用一个巨大的塔和托槽臂来接住史上最大的飞行物体。就像一个小孩捉苍蝇一样，只不过是更大的物体。
I mean, pulling. This probably won't work the first time. And, right. So this is bananas. This is banana stuff.
我是说，拉这个东西。第一次可能不会成功。是的，这很荒谬。这是荒谬的事情。
So you mentioned that you doubt, well, not you doubt, but there, there's days or moments when you doubt that this is even possible. It's so difficult. The possible part is, well, at this point, we'll, I think we'll get Starship to work. There's a question of timing.
你提到你会怀疑，不是你怀疑，而是有时候你有些疑虑，觉得这可能根本不可能。这很困难。其中可能的部分是，在这个时候，我认为我们会让Starship起作用。问题在于时间问题。
How long will it take us to do this? How long will it take us to actually achieve full and rapid reusability? Because it will take many launches before we're able to have full and rapid reusability. But I can say that the physics pencils out, like we're not, like at this point, I'd say we're confident that, like let's say, I'm very confident success is in the set of all possible outcomes.
我们需要多长时间才能完成这个任务？我们需要多长时间才能真正实现完全和快速的重复使用？因为在我们能够实现完全和快速的重复使用之前，需要进行许多次发射。但我可以说，物理学计算是可行的，就像在这一点上，我可以说我们有信心，就像说，我非常有信心，成功是所有可能结果的集合中的一个。
For a while, there I was not convinced that success was in the set of possible outcomes, which is very important actually. But so we're saying there's a chance. I'm saying there's a chance exactly. Just not sure how long it will take.
有一段时间，我并不相信成功是可能的结果之一，这实际上非常重要。但是我们也可以说，有机会成功。我是说有机会成功的。只是不确定需要多久的时间。
We have very talented team. They're working night and day to make it happen. And like I said, the critical thing to achieve for the revolution in spaceflight and for humanity to be a spaceflight civilization is to have a fully and rapidly reusable rocket over the rocket.
我们拥有非常有才华的团队。他们日以继夜地努力实现这一目标。就像我说的那样，实现太空飞行革命和让人类成为太空飞行文明的关键是拥有一枚完全可重复使用的火箭，而不是单次使用的火箭。
There's not even been any over rocket that's been fully reusable ever. And this has always been the holy grail of rocketry. And many smart people, very smart people have tried to do this before and they're not succeeded.
到目前为止，还没有一枚可完全重复使用的火箭，这一直是火箭技术的圣杯。许多非常聪明的人已经尝试过这个目标，但没有成功。
So because it's such a hard problem. It's a source of belief in situations like this. When the engineering problem is so difficult, there's a lot of experts, many of whom you admire who have failed in the past. And a lot of people, you know, a lot of experts, maybe journalists, all the kind of, you know, the public in general have a lot of doubt about whether it's possible.
因为这是一个非常困难的问题，所以这是一种信念来源。当工程问题如此困难时，有很多你钦佩的专家都曾经失败过。而许多人，包括专家、记者以及公众都怀疑这是否有可能。
And you yourself know that even if it's a non-null set, non-empty set of success, it's still unlikely or very difficult. Like where do you go to both personally, intellectually as an engineer as a team, like for source of strength needed to sort of persevere through this. And to keep going with the project, take it to completion. It's also strength. I just really not how I think about things.
你自己知道，即使是一个非空的成功集合，也很不可能或非常困难。作为一个工程师和团队，你去哪里寻找个人和智力上的支持，以坚持走下去，完成这个项目？这也需要力量。我只是真的不知道我是怎么想的。
I mean, for me, it's simply this is something that is important to get done. And do we just keep doing it or die trying and I don't need a source of strength? So quitting is not even like, that's not my nature. And I don't care about optimism or pessimism. Fuck that. We're going to get it done.
我是说，对我来说，只是这是一件重要的事情要完成。我们是要一直做下去，还是试图失败而死呢？因此，我不需要什么动力来源？所以放弃甚至不在我的本性之内。我不在乎乐观或悲观。该死，我们会完成它的。
Can you then zoom back in to specific problems with starship or any engineer problems you work on? Can you try to introspect your particular biological neural network, your thinking process and describe how you think through problems, the different engineering and design problems? Is there like a systematic process you've spoken about first principles thinking?
你能否放大到Starship或你所负责的任何工程问题上的具体问题？你能试着自我反思你特定的生物神经网络，你的思考过程，并描述如何思考问题，不同的工程和设计问题？你是否有过讲述第一原理思维的系统化过程？
Yeah. Was there kind of process to it? Yeah, like saying like physics is low and everything else is a recommendation. Like I've met a lot of people looking to break the law but I haven't met anyone who could break physics. So first, for any kind of technology problem, you have to sort of just make sure you're not violating physics.
嗯，这其中有没有某种过程呢？就像说物理学是基础，其他的只是建议一样。我遇到了很多想要违反法律的人，但我还没有遇见过谁能违反物理规律。所以，对于任何技术问题，你首先要确保不违反物理规律。
And first principles analysis, I think is something that can be applied to really any walk of life or anything really. It's really just saying, let's boil something down to the most fundamental principles, the things that we are most confident are true at a foundational level. And that sets your axiomatic base and then you reason up from there and then you cross check your conclusion against the axiomatic truth.
我认为，基本原理分析是可以应用于任何领域或事物的。其实就是说，让我们将事物归纳为最基本的原理，即我们最有信心的基础性真理。这样你就能建立起公理基础，然后从那里开始推理，最后再将结论和公理真理进行交叉验证。
So some basics and physics would be like all you find in conservation of energy or momentum or something like that, then it's not going to work. So that's just to establish, is it possible? And another good physics tool is thinking about things in the limit. If you take a particular thing and you scale it to a very large number or to a very small number, how does things change?
一些基础物理知识就像你在能量或动量守恒中找到的东西一样，那么它是行不通的。所以这只是为了确定，这是可能的吗？另一个好的物理工具是在极限条件下思考事物。如果你把一个特定的事物按比例扩大或缩小到非常大或非常小，那么事物会如何改变？
Well, it's like in number of things you manufacture something like that and then in time. Yeah, like the say, a thing example of like manufacturing, which I think is just a very underrated problem. And it's much harder to take an advanced technology product and bring it into volume manufacturing that it is to design it in the first place, my horse magnitude.
嗯，这就像你生产某些东西，然后靠时间来积累。就像他们说的那样，比如制造一件东西，我认为这是一个非常被低估的问题。将一个高级技术产品引入量产比起一开始设计它来说要难得多，这是个巨大的挑战。
So let's say you're trying to figure out is like, why is this part or product expensive? Is it because of something fundamentally foolish that we're doing or is it because our volume is too low? And so then you say, okay, well, what if our volume was a million units a year? Is it still expensive? That's what I mean by thinking about things in the limit. If it's still expensive at a million units a year, then volume is not the reason why you think it's expensive. There's something fundamental about design.
那么，假设你正在试图弄清楚，为什么这个零件或产品很贵？是因为我们做的事情从根本上愚蠢，还是因为我们的产量太低？那么你就会说，好的，如果我们的产量是一百万个单位每年，它还是很贵吗？这就是我所说的在极限条件下思考事情。如果在每年一百万个单位的情况下仍然很贵，那么产量不是你认为它很贵的原因。这里有一些关于设计的根本性问题。
And then you then can focus on the reducing complexity or something like that in the design. Good change the design to change the change the part to be something that is not fundamentally expensive. But it like that's a common thing in rock tree because the the unit volume is relatively low. And so a common excuse would be, well, it's expensive because our unit volume is low. And if we were in like automotive or something like that or consumer electronics, then our cost would be lower. And like, okay, so let's say we, now you're making a million units a year. Is this still expensive? If the answer is yes, then economies of scale are not the issue.
然后你就可以专注于在设计中减少复杂性或其他类似的事情。好的，改变设计，将某些部分改变成本贵的根本不必要的东西。不过，在岩石树行业这样的行业，这似乎是一种常见的情况，因为单位体积相对较低。所以常见的借口是，它很昂贵，因为我们的单位体积很低。如果我们在汽车或消费电子行业，成本会更低。好的，那么假设我们现在每年制造一百万个单位，这仍然昂贵吗？如果答案是肯定的，那么规模经济不是问题的关键。
Do you throw into manufacturing, do you throw like supply chain, talk about resources and materials and stuff like that? Do you throw that into the calculation of trying to reason from first principles like how we're going to make this supply chain work here? Yeah.
你是在考虑制造方面的投入，还是像物流供应链一样的投入？谈谈资源、材料之类的事情吗？你会把这些考虑进首先原理的推理计算中吗，例如我们如何使这个供应链在这里运转良好？是的。
Yeah. So, like, another good example of thinking about things in the limit is if you take any product, any machine or whatever, like take a rock or whatever and say, if you've got, if you look at the raw materials in the rocket, so you're going to have like a aluminum steel titanium, inco-nell, especially specialty alloys, copper, and you say, what's the weight of the constituent elements of each of these elements and what is their raw material value? And that sets the asymptotic limit for how low the cost of the vehicle can be unless you change the materials.
嗯。那么，另一个关于在极限下思考问题的好例子是，如果你拿任何产品、任何机器或其他东西——比如拿一块岩石——你可以看一看这个火箭的原材料，像铝钢钛、难耐合金、铜等等，然后你可以算算每个成分的重量和原材料价值，这就设定了车辆成本能够达到的渐近极限，除非你改变使用的材料。
So, and then when you do that, I call it like maybe the magic one number or something like that. So, that would be like if you had the, you know, like just a pile of these raw materials here and you could wave the magic one and rearrange the atoms into the final shape, that would be the lowest possible cost that you could make this thing for unless you change the materials.
那么，当你这么做时，我称之为神奇的数字或类似的东西。如果你有一堆这些原始材料，可以挥动魔棒，将原子重新排列成最终形状，这将是你能制造此物最低成本，除非你改变材料。
So, then, and that is always a, you're almost always a very low number. So then, what's actually causing these to be expensive is how you put the atoms into the desired shape.
嗯，那就是一直都是，基本上都是很低的数字。所以呢，实际上导致这些东西贵的原因是如何将原子放入所需的形状。
Yeah, actually, if you don't mind me taking a tiny tangent, I often talk to Jim Keller who's something to work with you, so Jim was the great work at Tesla. So I suppose he carries the flame of the same kind of thinking that you're talking about now.
嗯，事实上，如果你不介意我稍稍离题，我经常与和你一起工作的Jim Keller交流。他曾在特斯拉公司担任了非常棒的工作。所以我想他也拥有你现在谈到的那种思维方式的火种。
And I guess I see that same thing at Tesla and SpaceX folks who work there that kind of learn this way of thinking and it kind of becomes obvious almost. But anyway, I had argument, not argument, he educated me about how cheap it might be to manufacture a Tesla bot, which is, we had an argument, what is, how can you reduce the cost of scale of producing a robot?
我想我看到了特斯拉和SpaceX那些工作的人们，他们学会了这种思考方式，它几乎变得很明显。然而，我曾经有过一场争论，他并没有和我争论，而是教给我如何低成本制造一个特斯拉机器人，我们讨论了一个问题，那就是如何降低生产机器人的比例成本。
Because I got in a chance to interact quite a bit, obviously in the academic circles with humanoid robots and then robots and dynamics and stuff like that. And then they're very expensive to build. And then Jim kind of schooled me on saying like, okay, like this kind of first principle is thinking of how can we get the cost of manufacturing actually down.
因为我有机会与人形机器人以及机器人、动力学等学术圈子进行了相当多的互动。它们建造起来非常昂贵。然后Jim教育了我，说像，好的，这种第一原则是考虑如何降低制造成本。
I suppose you do that, you have done that kind of thinking for Tesla bot and for all kinds of all kinds of complex systems that are traditionally seen as complex and you say, okay, how can we simplify everything now? Yeah.
我觉得你这样做是因为你已经为特斯拉机器人和各种传统上看作复杂的系统进行了这种思考，你问，现在我们该如何简化一切呢？是的。
I mean, I think if you are really good at manufacturing, you can basically make, at high volume, you can basically make anything for a cost that asymptotically approaches the role of a raw material value of the constituents plus any intellectual property that you need to do a license, anything, right? But it's hard.
我是说，如果你真的很擅长制造，你可以基本上以高产量制造任何东西，成本基本上接近原材料价值加上你需要许可的任何知识产权，对吧？但是这很难。
It's not like that's a very hard thing to do, but it is possible for anything. Anything in volume can be made of, like I said, for a cost that asymptotically approaches as raw material constituents plus intellectual property license rights.
这并不是一件很难的事情，但任何事情都有可能。就像我说的那样，可以用材料和知识产权许可使用费用逐渐逼近的成本来制造任何成品。
So what will often happen in trying to design a product is people start with the tools and parts and methods that they are familiar with and then try to create a product using their existing tools and methods. The other way to think about it is actually imagine the, try to imagine the platonic ideal of the perfect product or technology, whatever it might be.
在设计产品时，常见的情况是人们从熟悉的工具、零件和方法开始，然后尝试使用现有的工具和方法来创建产品。另一种思考方式是想象完美产品或技术的柏拉图理念，并试图实现它。
And so what is the perfect arrangement of atoms that would be the best possible product? And now let us try to figure out how to get the atoms in that shape.
那么什么是最完美的原子排列，可以成为最好的产品呢？现在让我们试着想一想如何让这些原子形成那个形状。
I mean, it sounds, it's almost like a Rick and Morty absurd until you start to really think about it and you really should think about it in this way because everything else is kind of, if you think, you might fall victim to the momentum of the way things are done in the past unless you think in this way.
我是说，这听起来几乎像是一种瑞克和莫蒂的荒谬，直到你开始真正思考它，你真的应该用这种方式去思考，因为其他一切都有点像，如果你不好好思考一下，你可能会成为过去事物方式动力的受害者。
But just as a function of inertia people want to use the same tools and methods that they are familiar with, they just, that's what they'll do by default. And then that will lead to an outcome of things that can be made with those tools and methods but is unlikely to be the platonic ideal of the perfect product.
人们惯性地想使用他们熟悉的相同工具和方法，这是他们默认会做的事情。然后这将导致使用这些工具和方法制作的东西的结果，但可能不会是完美产品的柏拉图理想。
So that's why it's good to think of things in both directions and like, what can be built with the tools that we have but then but also what is the, what is the perfect, the theoretical perfect product look like? And that theoretical perfect product is going to be a moving target because as you learn more the definition of for that perfect product will change because you don't actually know what the perfect product is but you can successfully approximate a more perfect product.
所以，思考事物的两个方向是很好的，比如，我们可以用现有的工具建造什么，但同时又要想，理论上什么样的产品才是完美的？而这个理论上的完美产品会是一个移动的目标，因为随着你学到更多，对完美产品的定义也会随之改变，因为你实际上不知道完美产品是什么，但你可以成功地近似更加完美的产品。
So the thing about it like that and then saying, okay now what tools and methods, materials, whatever do we need to create in order to get the atoms in that shape? But for people very rarely think about it that way but it's a powerful tool.
关于这件事，我们需要想想，要如何用什么工具、方法、材料等来创造这种形状的原子。但是很少有人会这样想，但这是一个非常有用的工具。
I should mention that the brilliant Shivon Zilos is hanging out with us in case you hear a voice of wisdom from from from outside from up above. Okay.
我应该提一下，聪明绝顶的希沃恩·齐洛斯和我们在一起，如果你从外面或上边听到了一些智慧的声音。好的。
So let me ask you about Mars, you mentioned it would be great for science to put a base on the moon to do some research but the truly big leap again in this category of seemingly impossible is to put a human being on Mars.
那么，请让我问你关于火星的问题。你提到在月球上建立一个基地来进行研究是很有利于科学的，但在这个似乎不可能的类别里，真正的大跃进是将人类送上火星。
When do you think SpaceX will land a human being on Mars? Hmm. Best case is about five years, worst case ten years. What are the determining factors would you say from an engineering perspective or is that that not the bottlenecks?
你觉得SpaceX什么时候会将人类送上火星？嗯，最好的情况是五年，最坏的情况是十年。你认为从工程学的角度来说，决定因素是什么，或者这不是瓶颈？
You know it's fundamentally engineering the vehicle. I mean Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that's ever been made by I don't know what if magnitude or something like that it's a lot. It's really next level.
你知道，基本上是在设计这辆车。我的意思是，Starship 是迄今最复杂和先进的火箭，不知道是多少级别之类的，真的很多。它真的是下一级别的。
The fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing cost per ton to orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars. This may seem like a mogen tile objective but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized.
Starship 的基本优化目标是将每吨发射到轨道或火星表面的成本最小化。这可能看起来像一个普通的目标，但实际上这是需要优化的重点。
Like there is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city and then above that we cannot afford to do it.
就好像在火星表面建立一个自给自足的城市每吨的成本都是一定的，我们可以负担得起，在这个成本之上我们就负担不起了。
So right now you can fly to Mars for a trillion dollars. No amount of money could get you a ticket to Mars. So we need to get that above to get that like something that is actually possible at all.
现在你可以花一万亿美元飞往火星。任何金额的钱都无法让你获得一张飞往火星的机票。因此，我们需要提高这个门槛，使其成为一个可能实现的事情。
But that's that's we don't just want to have you know with Mars flags and footprints and then not come back for a half century like we did with the moon. In order to pass a very important to great filter I think we need to be a multi planet species.
但这就是我们不仅仅想要在火星留有旗帜和足印，然后像我们在月球上做的那样，半个世纪不回来。为了通过非常重要的大过滤器，我认为我们需要成为一个多星球物种。
Let's make sound somewhat esoteric to a lot of people but yeah give eventually given enough time that's something that's likely to experience some calamity that could be something that humans do to themselves or an external event like happen to dinosaurs.
让我们把话说得有些高深，可能很多人听不懂，但是如果给足够的时间，这很可能会遭受某种灾难，这可能是人类自己造成的，也可能是像恐龙那样的外部事件。
And but eventually if none of that happens and somehow magically we keep going then the sun will the sun is gradually expanding and will engulf the earth and probably earth gets too hot for life in about 500 million years. That's only 10% longer than earth has been around.
如果没有发生任何事情，但最终如果我们以某种神奇的方式继续前进，那么太阳将逐渐膨胀并将吞没地球，大约5亿年后，地球可能会变得太热而无法维持生命。 这仅比地球存在的时间长10％。
And so if you think about like the current situation is really remarkable and kind of hard to believe but earth has been around 4.5 billion years and this is the first time if 1.5 billion years that has been possible to extend life beyond earth.
所以，如果你思考一下，现在的情况真的很了不起，有点难以置信，但地球已经存在了45亿年，而这是1.5亿年来第一次有可能将生命延伸到地球以外。
And that window opportunity may be open for a long time and I hope it is but it also may be open for a short time and we should I think it is wise for us to act quickly while the video is open just in case it closes.
这个机会的窗口时间可能会很长，我希望是这样的，但它也可能只开放很短的时间。我认为我们应该明智地快速采取行动，因为视频窗口可能随时关闭，以免错失良机。
Yeah the existence of nuclear weapons, pandemics, all kinds of threats should kind of give us some motivation. I mean civilization could get, could die with a bang or a whimper. If it dies if demographic collapse then it's more of a whimper obviously.
是啊，核武器、流行病以及各种形式的威胁存在，这些应该能够激发我们一些动力。我觉得，人类文明可能会以大爆炸或者默默无闻的方式消亡。如果是因为人口崩溃而消亡，那显然就是一种默默无闻的方式了。
But if it's World War III it's more of a bang. But these are all risks. I mean it's important to think these things and just you know things like probabilities not certainties.
但如果是第三次世界大战，那将是更加猛烈的爆发。但这些都是风险。我的意思是，思考这些事情很重要，只是要看概率而非确定性。
Those are the probability that something about will happen on earth. I think most likely the future will be good. But there's like let's say for agonistake a 1% chance, a percentage of a civilization ending event.
这些是某些事情在地球上发生的概率。我认为未来很有可能是好的。但大概有1%的机会，即文明终结事件的发生率。
That was Stephen Hawking's estimate. I think he might be right about that. So then we should basically think of this like being a multi-plant species is like taking out insurance for life itself like life insurance for life.
那是史蒂芬·霍金的估算。我想他可能是对的。所以我们应该基本上认为，像成为多植物物种一样，就像为生命本身购买保险一样，这就是为生命购买的寿险。
So it's turned into an infomercial real quick life insurance for life. And you know we can bring the creatures from plants animals from earth to Mars and breathe life into the planet and have a second planet with life that would be great.
所以它迅速变成了一部有关人寿保险的广告。你知道，我们可以把从地球上的动物和植物中带来的生灵带到火星上，为这颗星球注入生命，并在有生命的第二个星球上生活，那将会很棒。
They can't bring themselves there. So if we don't bring them to Mars then they will just for sure all die when the sun expands anyway and then that'll be it.
如果我们不把他们送到火星，他们就无法到达那里。但是，当太阳膨胀时，他们肯定会全部死亡，那时就没有任何希望了。
What do you think is the most difficult aspect of building a civilization on Mars? Terraforming Mars like from a generic perspective, from a financial perspective, human perspective to get a large number of folks there who will never return back to earth.
你认为在火星上建立文明最困难的方面是什么？从普遍的角度，从财务角度，从人类角度来看，使火星变成适合人类居住的行星并吸引很多人前往，并永远无法返回地球。
No, I think it's something we'll return back to with. They will choose to stay there for the rest of their lives. Yeah, many will.
不，我认为这是一件我们将来会再考虑的事情。他们会选择在那里度过余生。是的，许多人会这样选择。
But we need the spaceships back like the ones that go to Mars, we need them back. So you can hop on if you want. But we can't just not have the spaceships come back. Those things are expensive. We need them back to come back and turn to the trip.
但我们需要像去火星那样的宇宙飞船回来，我们需要它们回来。所以，如果你想要，你可以跳上去。但我们不能没有宇宙飞船回来。这些东西很贵。我们需要它们回来完成旅行。
Do you think about the Terraforming aspect like actually building a you're so focused right now on the spaceships part that's so critical to get to Mars? We absolutely, if you can't get there, nothing else matters.
你是否考虑到了行星改造方面，就像实际建造一样？你现在非常专注于宇宙飞船部分，这对于到达火星非常关键。因为如果你无法到达那里，其他什么都没有意义。
And like I said, we can't get there with at some extraordinarily high cost. I mean, the current cost of, let's say, one ton to the surface of Mars is on the order of a billion dollars.
就像我说的，我们不能用极高的代价才到达那里。我的意思是，现在的费用，比如说，把一吨货物送到火星表面，大约需要十亿美元。
So because you don't just need the rocket and the launch and everything, you need like heat shield, you need, you know, guidance system, you need deep space communications, you need some kind of landing system.
因为你不仅需要火箭和发射等基本设备，你还需要热屏蔽装置、导航系统、深空通信以及某种降落系统。所以这些都是必须的。
So like rough approximation would be a billion dollars per ton to the surface of Mars right now. This is obviously way too expensive to create a self-sustaining civilization. So we need to improve that by at least a factor of a thousand a million per ton. Yes.
所以粗略估计现在将一吨物质运送到火星表面需要十亿美元。这显然太昂贵了，不能维持一个自给自足的文明。因此，我们需要将这个成本降低至少一千倍、一百万美元每吨。是的。
Ideally, much less than a million ton. But if it's not like it's got to be, you have to say like, well, how much can society afford to spend or want to just want to spend on a self-sustaining city on Mars?
理想情况下，远远少于一百万吨。但如果情况不是那样的话，你得问问，社会能够或者愿意为一个能够自给自足的火星城市花费多少费用呢？
The self-sustaining part is important. Like it's just the key threshold, the great filter will have been passed when the city on Mars can survive even if the space shifts from Earth stop coming for any reason, which doesn't matter what the reason is.
自我维持的部分非常关键。就像这是一个重要的门槛，当火星上的城市能够在任何原因下停止从地球接收空间物资时仍能生存，那么这个伟大的过滤器就已经被通过了，无论原因是什么。
But if they stop coming for any reason, will it die out or will it not? And if there's even one critical ingredient missing, then it still doesn't count. It's like, you know, if you're on a long sea voyage and you've got everything except vitamin C, it's only a matter of time, you know, you're going to die.
但如果它们因为任何原因停止到来，它会灭绝吗？还是不会？如果缺失一个重要成分，那么它仍然无效。就像，你知道，如果你在一次长途海上航行中，除了维生素C之外你拥有一切，那么你只是时间问题，你知道你会死的。
So we've got to get Mars to the point where it's self-sustaining. I'm not sure this will really happen in my lifetime, but I hope to see it at least have a lot of momentum. And then you can say, what is the minimum tonnage necessary to have a self-sustaining city? And there's a lot of uncertainty about those. You can say, I don't know, it's probably at least a million tons because you have to set up a lot of infrastructure on Mars.
所以我们必须让火星变得自给自足。我不确定这会不会在我的有生之年实现，但我希望至少能看到它有很大的势头。那么你可以问，建立一个自给自足的城市需要的最低吨位是多少？这方面有很多不确定性。你可能会说，我不知道，至少需要一百万吨，因为在火星上必须建立许多基础设施。
Like I said, you can't be missing anything that in order to self-sustaining, you can't be missing. You need a semi-conductive fab, you need iron ore or fine-raising, like you need lots of things, you know. And Mars is not super hospitable. It's the least inhospitable planet, but it's definitely a fixer operative planet. Outside of Earth. Yes. Earth is pretty good. Both is like easy. And also we should clarify in the solar system. Yes, in the solar system. There might be nice vacation spots. There might be some great planets out there, but it's hopeless. Too hard to get there. Yeah, way too hard.
就像我说的一样，为了自给自足，你不能缺少任何东西。你需要一个半导体工厂，需要铁矿石或者精细提炼，需要很多其他东西，你知道的。火星不是非常适合人类居住的星球，它肯定需要维修。除了地球之外，是的，地球相当不错，两者都简单容易。而且我们应该澄清一下，这是太阳系内。也许会有一些不错的度假胜地，也许会有一些伟大的行星，但是现实是无望的，去那里太难了，完全没有希望。
Let me push back on that. Not really a pushback, but a quick curve ball of a question. He did mention physics as the first starting point. So general relativity allows for warm holes. They technically can exist. Do you think those can ever be leveraged by humans to travel fast in this beta light?
让我针对这个提出异议。不是真正的挑战，只是一个快速的曲球问题。他提到物理学是第一个起点。所以广义相对论允许存在温暖的洞。从技术上讲，它们是可以存在的。你觉得人类能否利用它们来以超光速旅行呢？
Well, are you saying that? The world's thing is, is debatable. We currently do not know of any means of going fast in this beta light. But there are some ideas about having space. So you're going to let move at the speed of light through space. But if you can make space itself move, that's warming space. Space is capable of moving faster than the speed of light. Right. Like the universe in the big bang universe, the universe expanded it much more than the speed of light by a lot. So, but the if this is possible, the amount of energy required to work space is so gigantic. It's boggles the mind.
嗯，你是说什么？世界上的事情是有争议的。目前我们不知道任何一种可以在beta光速下快速前进的方法。但是有一些关于太空的想法。所以你可以让自己在太空中以光速移动。但是如果你可以让空间本身移动，那就是在加热空间。空间能够比光速更快地移动。对的，就像宇宙在大爆炸宇宙中，宇宙的扩张远远超过了光速。但是，如果这是可能的，那么工作空间所需的能量量是如此巨大，这是令人难以置信的。
So all the work you've done with propulsion, how much innovation is possible with rocket propulsion? Is this, I mean, you've seen it all and you're constantly innovating in every aspect. How much is possible? Like how much can you get 10X somehow? Is there something in there in physics that you can get significant improvement in terms of efficiency of engines and all those kinds of things?
你们在推进方面所做的所有工作，火箭推进有多大的创新空间？我的意思是，你们已经见过所有的东西，而且在各个方面不断创新。有多少是可能的？就像你们能在某些物理方面获得多少10倍的提升？在引擎效率和其他方面，是否存在一些可以显著提高的物理学要素？
Well, as I was saying, like the really the holy grail is a fully and rapidly reusable orbital system. So right now, the Falcon 9 is the only reusable rocket out there. But the booster comes back in land, you've seen the videos and we get the nose, colonel, faring back, but we do not get the upper stage back. So that means that we have a minimum cost of building an upper stage.
嗯，就像我刚才所说的，一个完全可重复使用的轨道系统，就像真正的圣杯一样，是最理想的。目前，Falcon 9是唯一可重复使用的火箭。但是，助推器回到陆地上，你可能已经看过了相关视频，我们得到了鼻锥和防护罩，但却没有收回上层级别。这意味着我们至少要花费建造上层级别的最低成本。
You can think of like a two stage rocket of sort of like two airplanes, like a big airplane and a small airplane and we get the big airplane back, but not the small airplane. And so it's still cost a lot. So that upper stage is at least $10 million. And then the degree of the booster is not as rapidly and completely reusable as we'd like in order of the fairings. So our kind of minimum marginal cost, not counting overhead for per flight is on the order of $15 to $20 million maybe.
你可以把它想象成一个两级火箭，就像两架飞机一样，一个大飞机和一个小飞机。我们把大飞机带回来了，但小飞机没法带回来，所以成本还是很高的。所以那个上面的阶段至少要花费1000万美元。而且提高助推器的可重复利用程度对我们的外层结构来说还不够快速和完全，所以我们每次飞行的最低边际成本，不包括运营费用，可能是1500万到2000万美元。
So that's extremely good for, it's by far better than any rocket ever in history. But with full and rapid reusability, we can reduce the cost per ton to orbit by a factor of 100. But just think of it like, imagine if you had an aircraft or something or a car and if you had to buy a new car every time you went for a drive, it would be very expensive, every silly, frankly. But in fact, you just refuel the car or recharge the car and that makes your trip like, I don't have a thousand times cheaper. So it's the same for rockets.
所以这非常好，远比历史上任何火箭都要好。但是，如果我们实现了完全的和快速的再利用，我们可以将每吨运到轨道的成本降低 100 倍。可以这样想象一下，如果你有一架飞机或一辆汽车，每次出行都必须购买一辆新车，那么这将非常昂贵，实在是太不划算了。但实际上，你只需要加油或充电就可以了，这使得你的出行成本降低了 1000 倍。所以，火箭也是如此。
If you, it's very difficult to make this complex machine that can go to orbit. And so if you cannot reuse it and have to have to throw even any part of any significant part of it away, that massively increases the cost. So you know, Starship and theory could do a cost per launch of like a million, maybe two million dollars or something like that and put over a hundred tons in orbit.
如果你想制造一个复杂的能上天的机器，这非常困难。因此，如果你不能对其进行再利用，甚至必须丢掉其中任何一个重要部分，那么这会大大增加成本。你知道，星际飞船的理论成本可能是一百万或两百万美元每次发射，可以将一百吨以上的货物送入轨道。
This is crazy. Yeah. So that's incredible. So you're saying like it's by far the biggest bang for the buck is to make it fully reusable versus like some kind of brilliant breakthrough into your actual physics. Yeah, no, there's no brilliant break. No, there's no, it just might make the rocket reusable. This is an extremely difficult entering problem.. Got it. No new physics is required. Just brilliant engineering.
这简直太疯狂了。是啊，太不可思议了。你的意思是，完全可重复使用要比在实际物理方面取得一些卓越的突破更有性价比，是吗? 对，没有卓越的突破。没有，只是使火箭可重复使用。这是一个非常棘手的问题。懂了。不需要新的物理知识，只需要卓越的工程技术。
Let me ask a slightly philosophical, fun question. Got to ask, I know you're focused on getting to Mars, but once we're there on Mars, what do you, what form of government, economic system, political system? Do you think would work best for an early civilization of humans? Is the, I mean, the interesting reason to talk about the stuff, it also helps people dream about the future. I know you're really focused about the short term engineering dream, but it's like, I don't know, there's something about imagining an actual civilization of Mars that gives people, it really gives people hope.
让我提出一个略带哲学趣味的问题。我知道你们专注于登陆火星，但是一旦我们到达那里，你认为哪种形式的政府、经济体系和政治制度能够最好地适用于早期人类文明？这个话题很有趣，也能帮助人们憧憬未来。我知道你们非常专注于短期的工程梦想，但是想象在火星建立一座实际的文明似乎可以给人们带来希望。
Well, it would be a new front here and an opportunity to rethink the whole nature of government just as was done in the creation of the United States. So I would suggest having direct democracy, like people vote directly on things as opposed to representative democracy. So representative democracy, I think, is to subject to a special interest and a coercion of the politicians and that kind of thing. So I recommend that there's just direct democracy, people vote on laws, the population votes on laws themselves. And then the laws must be short enough that people can understand them. Yeah. And then like keeping a well informed populist, like really being transparent about all the information about what they're voting for. Yeah, absolutely transparency. Yeah.
嗯，这将是一个新的局面，也是重新思考政府性质的机会，就像创建美国时一样。因此，我建议采用直接民主制度，让人们直接投票而不是代议制民主制度。我认为，代议制民主制度容易受到特殊利益和政治家的胁迫等问题。所以我的建议是，采用直接民主制度，人们直接对法律进行投票，民众也应该对法律进行投票。法律应该要足够简短，让人们理解。此外，我们需要一个充分了解民意的民众，公开透明地告知所有其所投票的信息。是的，绝对的透明度。
And not make it as annoying as those cookies, we have to accept the cookies. I always, like, you know, there's like always like a slight amount of trepidation when you click accept cookies, like, like, feels like there's like, perhaps like a very tiny chance that'll open a portal to hell or something like that. Exactly. Why do they, why do they keep it, why do they keep it, why do they want this cookie? Like somebody got upset with accepting cookies or something somewhere, I mean, who cares? Like, so annoying to keep accepting all these cookies. Me. Yeah, I do agree. Yes, you can have my damn cookie. I don't care. Whatever. He heard it from me on first. He accepts all your damn cookies. Yeah. And so that's me. It's annoying. Yeah, it's one example of implementation of a good idea done really horribly. Yeah. Somebody was like, there's some good intentions of like privacy or whatever. But now everyone just has to accept cookies and it's not, you know, you have billions of people who have to keep clicking accept cookie and super annoying. Then we just accept the damn cookie. It's fine.
不要像那些饼干一样让人烦，我们必须接受饼干。每次点击接受饼干，总会有一点点担心，感觉似乎有可能会打开通往地狱之门的微小机会之类的。确实如此。为什么他们要这个饼干？好像有人在某个地方由于接受饼干而感到不满，但谁管呢？接受所有这些饼干太烦人了。我。是啊，我同意。好了，你可以拿走我的该死的饼干。我不在乎。他是从我这里听到的。他接受了你所有该死的饼干。是的，这让我很烦恼。这是一个实现好点子却被做得非常糟糕的例子。好像有一些隐私之类的好意，但现在每个人都必须接受饼干，这不是超级烦人吗？那我们就接受该死的饼干好了，没什么大不了的。
There is like, I think a fundamental problem that we're because we've not really had a major like a world war or something like that. And while obviously we would like to not have hold was, there's not been a cleansing function for rules and regulations. So wars did have some sort of lining in that there would be a reset on rules and regulations after a war. So all those one and two, there were huge resets on rules and regulations. Now if the society society does not have a war and there's no cleansing function or garbage collection for rules and regulations, then rules and regulations will accumulate every year because they're immortal. There's no actual humans die, but the lowest aren't.
我认为我们存在着一个根本性的问题，那就是我们从没有经历过像世界大战那样的大规模战争。尽管我们显然不希望发生战争，但是在这种情况下，规则和条例并没有得到过一次清洗。战争会在某种程度上起到这样的作用，因为一次战争之后，规则和条例就会被重新制定。在一战和二战中，就曾有过巨大的规则和条例重置。但是，如果社会中没有战争或者垃圾处理机制来清洗规则和条例，那么这些规则和条例就会每年积累，因为它们是不朽的，即使人们死去，规则和条例还是存在。
So we need a garbage collection function for rules and regulations that should not just be immortal because some of the rules and regulations that are put in place will be counterproductive, done with good intentions, but counterproductive. Sometimes not done with good intentions. So if rules and regulations is to accumulate every year and you get more and more of them, then eventually you won't be able to do anything. You just like golevere with tie down by thousands of little strings. So we see that in U.S. and basically all economies that have been around for a while and regulators and legislators create new rules and regulations every year, but they don't put effort into removing them.
因此，我们需要一个垃圾收集功能来处理那些不应该永远存在的规则和条例，因为其中一些规则和条例可能是反生产力的，即便是出于良好的意图也是如此。有时则可能不是出于良好的意图。如果规则和条例每年都在增加，你最终将无法做任何事情。就像被成千上万的小线条所束缚一样。我们看到，在美国和所有已经存在一段时间的经济体系中，监管机构和立法者每年都会制定新的规则和条例，但他们没有付出颇多努力来删除这些规则和条例。
And I think that's very important that we put effort into removing rules and regulations. But it gets tough because you get special interests that then are dependent on like they have a vested interest in that whatever rule and regulation and that they then they fight to not get it removed.
我觉得很重要的一点是我们要努力取消规章制度。但问题是越来越困难了，因为有一些特殊利益团体，他们依赖于某些规章制度，因此他们会反对取消这些规章制度。
Yeah, so I mean, I guess the problem with the Constitution is it's kind of like C versus Java because it doesn't have any garbage collection built in.
所以我的意思是，我认为宪法的问题有点像C语言和Java，因为它没有内置任何垃圾回收措施。
I think there should be a, when you first said that the metaphor of garbage collection, I love it. It's from coding standpoint.
我认为应该有一个，当你第一次提到垃圾收集的隐喻时，我很喜欢它。从编码的角度来看，它很棒。
From coding standpoint. It would be interesting, it's the laws themselves kind of had a built-in thing where they kind of die after a while unless somebody explicitly publicly defends them..
从编码角度来看，如果法律本身有一种内在的机制，在一段时间后它们就会逐渐消失，除非有人明确公开地维护它们，那将会很有趣。
So that's sort of, it's not like somebody has to kill them, they kind of die themselves. They disappear.
那就是说，不是有人必须杀害它们，它们自己会慢慢消失，就像自然消亡一样。
Yeah. Not the defend Java or anything, but C++, you could also have great garbage collection and Python and so on.
对啊。并不是要为Java辩护，但是C++，你也可以拥有很好的垃圾回收，以及Python等等。
Yeah. Yeah, something needs to happen or just the civilizations are these are just hardened over time and you can just get less and less done because there's just a rule against everything.
嗯。嗯，需要发生一些事情，否则这些文明只会随着时间的推移变得越来越僵化，因为对一切都有规则，所以能做的事情就越来越少了。
So I think like I don't know, Formal is what I'd say, I would even quote here, I would say for Earth as well, I think there should be an active process for removing rules and regulations and questioning their existence.
所以我认为，换言之，我觉得应该采用正式方式，甚至可以引用一下，对于地球而言，我认为应该有一个积极的过程来删除规则和法规，并质疑它们的存在。
If we've got a function for creating rules and regulations, because rules and regulations can also think of like they're like software or lines of code for operating civilization.
如果我们有一个创建规则和条例的函数，因为规则和条例可以像软件或操作文明的行代码一样考虑。
That's the rules and regulations. So it's like we shouldn't have rules and regulations, but you have code accumulation, but no code removal.
那是规定和条例。所以就好像我们不应该有规定和条例，但是你们有代码积累，但是没有代码清理。
And so it just gets to become basically archaic blood wear after a while. And it makes it hard for things to progress.
所以，它变得基本上成为陈旧的血统穿着，难以推进事物进展。
So I don't know, maybe Mars, you'd have like any given law must have a sunset and require active voting to keep it up there.
所以我不知道，也许在火星上，任何一项法律都必须有日落条款并需要积极投票才能继续执行。
And I actually also say like, and these just, I don't know, recommendations or thoughts and ultimately will be up to the people on Mars to decide.
而我实际上还会说，这些只是建议或想法，最终决定权在火星人手中。
But I think it should be easier to remove a law than to add one because of the just to overcome the inertia of laws.
我认为，废除一项法律应该比通过一项法律更容易，因为要克服现有法律的惯性。
So maybe it's like for argument sake, you need like say 60% vote to have a law take effect, but only a 40% vote to remove it.
也许这就像为了争论的目的，你需要得到六成的投票才能使法律生效，但只需要四成的投票就能废除它。
So let me be the guy, you posted a meme on Twitter recently where there's like a row of urinals and guys just walks all the way across. And he tells you about crypto.
那么让我来说，你最近在推特上发了一个梗，画了一排小便池，有个家伙穿过去，然后跟你谈加密货币。
So this is, I mean, that's how to be so many times. I think maybe even literally.
这就是，我是说，这就是为什么会发生很多次的原因。我认为可能甚至字面意义上都是这样。
Yeah. Do you think technologically speaking, there's any room for ideas of smart contracts that are so on because you mentioned laws.
是的。你认为从技术角度来说，有没有为智能合约的想法留下空间，因为你提到了法律。
That's an interesting implement use of things like smart contracts to implement the laws by which governments function.
那是一种有趣的实现方式，利用智能合约来实施政府运作的法律。
Like something built on a theory or maybe a dog coin that enables smart contracts somehow. I never quite understand this whole smart contracting.
就像建立在理论基础上的某种东西，或者可能是一种可以启用智能合约的狗币。我从来没有完全理解这个整个智能合约。
You know, I mean, I'm too downtown to understand smart contracts. That's a good line.
你知道吗，我是个市区人，不懂智能合约。这是个好点子。
I mean, my general approach to any kind of like deal or whatever is just make sure this clarity of understanding.
我是说，对于任何交易或其他事情，我的一般方法就是确保理解的清晰度。
That's the most important thing. And just keep any kind of deal very, very short and simple plain language.
那是最重要的事情。而且要让任何类型的协议都非常简短、简单易懂的语言。
And just make sure everyone understands this is the deal. Everyone is it clear? And what are the consequences if various things don't happen?
请确保每个人都明白这是交易的内容。大家都清楚了吗？如果有一些事情没有发生，会有什么后果呢？
But usually deals are business deals or whatever are a way too long and complex and overly layered and pointlessly.
通常情况下，交易是商业交易或者其他的方式都太长、太复杂、过于复杂并且没有意义。
You mentioned that Doge is the people's coin. And you said that you were literally going SpaceX may consider literally putting a Doge coin on the moon. Is this something you're still considering?
你说过Doge币是人民的币种，并且你还提到你真的正在考虑太空探险公司将Doge币真的送上月球。你还在考虑这个项目吗？
Mars perhaps. Do you think there's some chance we've talked about political systems on Mars that Doge coin is the official currency of Mars that's happening in the future?
“也许在未来，火星上的 Doge 币将成为官方货币，我们谈论过火星的政治系统，你认为这有一些可能吗？”
Well, I think Mars itself will need to have a different currency because you can't synchronize due to speed of light or not easily.
嗯，我认为火星本身需要有不同的货币，因为由于光速的影响，你无法轻松地进行同步。
So must be completely stand alone for Mars?
那么，必须完全独立于火星吗？
Well yeah, because Mars is at closest approach. It's four light minutes away roughly and then at first approach, it's roughly 20 light minutes away, maybe a little more.
是的，因为火星此时距离最近，大约是4个光分钟的路程。刚开始离开地球时，距离大概是20个光分钟，或许更多一些。
So you can't really have something synchronizing if you've got a 20 minutes to be light issue if it's got a one minute blockchain.
所以如果你的区块链只有一分钟，但存在一个需要20分钟的轻量级问题，那么你无法真正实现同步化。
It's not going to synchronize probably. So I don't know if Mars would have a cryptocurrency as a thing but probably seems likely but it would be some kind of localized thing on Mars.
“这个可能不会同步。所以我不知道火星是否会有加密货币，但很有可能，只是它可能是一种在火星上本地化的货币。”
And you let the people decide?
那你让人民来决定吗？
Yeah, absolutely. So the future of Mars should be after the Martians.
是的，完全正确。 所以火星的未来应该是属于火星人的。
Yeah, so I think the cryptocurrency thing is an interesting approach to reducing the error in the database that is called money.
嗯，我认为加密货币是一种有趣的方法来减少被称为货币的数据库中的错误。
I think I have a pretty deep understanding of what money actually is on a practical day to day basis because of PayPal.
因为使用PayPal，我认为我对日常生活中的货币实际意义有着相当深刻的理解。
We really got in deep there. And right now the money system actually for practical purposes is really a bunch of heterogeneous mainframes running old cobalt.. Okay, you mean literally. That's literally what's happening in batch mode.
我们确实深陷其中了。而现在，实际上用于实际目的的货币系统实际上是一堆运行旧钴蓝色语言代码的不同主机。好的，你是指逐批处理模式下确实是这样。
Okay. Yeah, pretty the poor fastest you have to maintain that code. Okay, that's a pain that's pain. Not even four trans cobalt.
好的，是的，你必须保持那个代码的速度是最快的，但这实在是太痛苦了。甚至还没有四个转换钴。
Yep, it's cobalt. And they still, banks are still buying mainframes in 2021 and running ancient cobalt code. And you know, the federal service is like probably even older than what the banks have and they have an old cobalt mainframe.
是的，它是钴。银行仍然在2021年购买大型机，并运行古老的钴代码。而且，联邦服务可能比银行拥有的更古老，他们有一个古老的钴大型机。
And so now the government effectively has editing privileges on the money database. And they use those editing privileges to make more money whenever they want. And this increases the error in the database that is money.
所以现在政府实际上拥有货币数据库的编辑权限。他们利用这些编辑权限，随时可以制造更多的钱。这会增加货币数据库的错误。
So I think money should really be viewed through the lens of information theory. And so it's you're kind of like an internet connection. Like what's the bandwidth, you know, total bit rate. What is the latency, jutter, packet drop, you know, errors in network communication. Does the money like that basically?
我认为钱应该从信息理论的角度来看待。所以你可以把它看成互联网连接。就像带宽、总比特率一样。延迟、抖动、数据包丢失，网络通信中的错误是什么。钱的情况就是这样吗？
I think that's probably why we think that. And then say what system from an information theory standpoint allows an economy to function the best. And you know, crypto is an attempt to reduce the the error in money that is contributed by governments deluding the money supply as basically a pernicious form of taxation.
我认为这可能就是我们觉得这样的原因。从信息理论的角度来看，什么样的系统可以让经济运作得最好呢？你知道，加密货币试图减少由政府虚假增加货币供应所导致的货币误差，这是一种恶性税收形式。
So both policy in terms of with inflation and actual like technological cobalt like cryptocurrency takes us into the 21st century in terms of the actual systems that allow you to do the transaction to store wealth, all those kinds of things.
所以，无论是通货膨胀政策还是类似加密货币这样的技术性钴，都将我们带入21世纪的实际系统，这些系统使您能够进行交易和储存财富等各种操作。
Like I said, just think of money as information. People often will think of money as having power in and of itself. It does not. Money is information and it does not have power in and of itself. Like applying the physics tools of thinking about things in the limit is helpful.
就像我说的那样，把钱看作信息就可以了。人们常常会认为钱本身具有权力，但实际上不是这样的。钱只是一种信息，本身并没有什么权力。就像运用物理工具来思考极限情况一样，这样做也是有帮助的。
If you are stranded on a tropical island and you have a trillion dollars useless because there's no there's no resource allocation. Money is a database resource allocation. But there's no resource to allocate except yourself. So money is useless. If you're stranded on desert island with no food, you'd all the Bitcoin in the world will not stop you from starving. So like just just think of money as a database for resource allocation across time and space.
如果你被困在一个热带岛屿上，拥有一万亿美元也是没用的，因为没有资源可供分配。钱是一种数据库资源分配方式。但除了你自己之外，没有可分配的资源。因此，钱毫无用处。如果你被困在没有食物的荒岛上，即使你拥有世界上所有的比特币也无法阻止你饿死。所以，只需将钱看作是跨时间和空间的资源分配数据库即可。
And then what system in what form should that database or data system, what would be most effective. Now, there is a fundamental issue with say Bitcoin and its current form in that it's the transaction volume is very limited. And the latency for probably confirmed transaction is too long much longer than you'd like.
然后，那个数据库或数据系统应该以什么形式存在？什么样的系统最有效？现在，比特币存在一个基本问题，它的交易量非常有限。可能确认交易的延迟时间太长了，比你想象中更长。
So it's not it's actually not great from transaction volume standpoint or latency standpoint. So it is perhaps useful as to solve an aspect of the money database problem, which is the sort of store of wealth or an accounting of relative obligations, I suppose. But it is not useful as a currency as a day to day currency.
所以，从交易数量和延迟性来看，它实际上并不好。因此，它可能有助于解决货币数据库问题的某个方面，即作为财富储存或相关义务的会计核算吧。但它并不适用于日常货币。
But people have proposed different technological solutions. Yeah, lightning network and the layer two technologies on top of that. I mean, it's all it seems to be all kind of a trade off. But the point is it's kind of brilliant to say that just think about it information, think about what kind of database, what kind of infrastructure enables. Yeah, it's just like your operating in economy. And you need to have some thing that allows for the efficient to have efficient value ratios between products and services.
但是人们已经提出了不同的技术解决方案。是啊，像闪电网络和在其之上的二层技术。我的意思是，似乎这都是一种权衡。但是重点是，想想信息，想想什么样的数据库，什么样的基础设施可以实现，这种想法真的很聪明。是的，就像在经济中运营一样。你需要有某种东西，可以实现产品和服务之间高效的价值比率。
So you got this massive number of products and services and you need to you can't just barter, barter, it's like that would be extremely unwieldy. So you need something that gives you a ratio of exchange between goods and services. And then something that allows you to shift obligations across time like debt, debt and equity, shift obligations across time. Then what does what does the best job of that?
所以你手头有大量的产品和服务，你需要某种方式来换算，不能一直用物物交换，那会变得非常麻烦。所以你需要一些能够为你提供商品和服务之间的兑换比率的东西，以及一些可以将债务、债务和权益在时间上进行转移的东西。那么什么东西才能最好地完成这项工作呢？
Part of the reason why I think there's some merit to those coin, even though it was obviously created as a joke, is that it actually does have a much higher transaction volume, capability than Bitcoin. And the cost of doing a transaction, the the dose coin fee is very low.
我认为这些硬币有一定的价值，尽管它们很明显是作为一个笑话而被创造出来的，其中一部分原因是它实际上比比特币具有更高的交易量和能力。而做交易的成本，也就是dose硬币费用非常低。
Like right now, if you want to do a Bitcoin transaction, the price of doing that transaction is very high. So you could not use it effectively for most things. And nor could it even scale to a high volume. And what Bitcoin was started, I guess, around 2008 or something like that. The internet connections were much worse than they are today, like order of magnitude.
如果你现在想做一次比特币交易，交易的费用非常高。所以你无法将其有效地用于大多数事情上。甚至它也不能实现大量交易。比特币大概是在2008年左右开始兴起的。当时的互联网连接比现在差得多，可以说是数量级的区别。
I mean, there's the way, way worse in 2008. So like having a small block size or whatever is, and a long synchronization time is made sense in 2008. But to 2021 or fast forward 10 years, it's like it's like comically low.
我是说，2008年情况要糟糕得多。比如，拥有很小的区块大小或者长的同步时间在2008年是有意义的。但是到了2021年或者快进十年后，这就像是一个可笑的低级错误。
So. And I think there's some value to having a linear increase in the amount of currency that is generated. So because some amount of the currency, if a currency is too deflationary or should say, if a currency is expected to increase in value over time, there's reluctance to spend it. Because they're like, oh, if I, I'll just hold it and not spend it because it's scarcity is increasing with time. So if I spend it now, then I will regret spending it. So I will just, you know, hold it. But if there's some delusion of the currency occurring over time, that's more of an incentive to use it as a currency.
我认为逐步增加货币的数量有一定的价值。如果一种货币通货紧缩，或者说预计随时间增值，人们就不愿花费它，因为他们可能会认为随着时间的推移货币的稀缺性越来越大，因此如果现在花掉它，以后会后悔。因此，他们可能会把它留着不用。但是如果货币随时间逐渐膨胀，那将更有使之成为交易货币的动力。
So those coins somewhat randomly has a just a fixed number of coins or hash strings that are generated every year. So there's some inflation, but it's not a percentage based. So it's a fixed number. So the percentage of inflation will necessarily decline over time. So it just I'm not saying that it's like the ideal system for a currency, but I think it actually is just fundamentally better than anything else I've seen just by accident.
那些硬币相当随机地每年会生成一定数量的硬币或哈希字符串。因此有一些通货膨胀，但它不是基于百分比的，而是一个固定数字。因此通胀率必然会随着时间的推移而下降。我并不是说这是货币的理想系统，但我认为它实际上只是一种从意外中本质上更好的系统，比我见过的任何其他系统都要好。
We said around 2008, so you're not, you know, some people suggested you might be said, oh, she's not come out of it. You've previously said you're not. I'm not. You're not for sure. I'm not sure. Would you tell us if you were? Yes.
我们大约在2008年说过，所以你并不是，你知道的，有些人会建议说，哦，她还没有走出来。你之前说过你不是。我也不是。你确定你不是。我不确定。如果你是的话，你会告诉我们吗？是的。
Okay. Do you think it's a feature of bug that he's anonymous or she or they? It's an interesting kind of quirk of human history that there is a particular technology that is completely anonymous inventor or creator. Well, I mean, you can look at the evolution of ideas before the launch of Bitcoin. And see who wrote about those ideas. And then I don't know exactly.
好的。你认为这匿名创造者是一个 bug 还是一种特性呢？人类历史中这是非常有趣的一种怪癖，有一种技术完全是匿名的创造者。嗯，我的意思是，你可以看看比特币发布前的思想演变，看看谁写过这些思想。但具体我不太清楚。
I don't know who created Bitcoin for practical purposes, but the evolution of ideas is pretty clear for that. And it seems as though like Nick Sabo is probably more than anyone else responsible for the evolution of those ideas. So he claims not to be so not commoto.
我不知道谁为实际目的创建了比特币，但对于这些思想的进化，它似乎相当清晰。而且似乎尼克·萨博可能比其他任何人都更负责这些思想的发展。所以他声称并非不情愿。
But I'm not sure that's nearly here nor there, but he seems to be the one more responsible for the ideas behind Bitcoin or anyone else. So it's not perhaps like singular figures aren't even as important as the figures involved in the evolution of ideas that led to a thing. So yeah, you know, most perhaps it's sad to think about history, but maybe most names would be forgotten anyway. What is the name anyway? It's a name attached to an idea. What does it mean, really? I think Shakespeare had a thing about roses and stuff, whatever he said. Rose by any other name. It's well sweet. I got a you on the quote Shakespeare. I feel like I accomplished something today. Shall I compare it to a summer's day?
我不确定这个问题是多么重要，但他似乎是比其他任何人更负责比特币背后的想法。所以，也许不仅仅是那些单独的人物对于导致某些事情发展的想法起了作用，而是与之相关的人物。所以，你知道，也许想起历史有点伤感，但也许大多数人的名字会被遗忘。那么这个名字是什么？它是附着在一个想法上的名字。真的有什么意义吗？我认为莎士比亚关于玫瑰之类的东西有点东西，不管他说了什么。改变名字不会改变品质。我引用了莎士比亚的名言，我觉得今天我做了一件了不起的事情。我应该将它与夏日做比较吗？
I'm going to clip that out instead of you. Not more tempered animal fair. Autopilot. Test a lot of pilot. Test a lot of pilot has been through an incredible journey over the past six years, or perhaps even longer in the minds of in your mind and the minds of many involved. I think that's where we first like connected really with the autopilot stuff autonomy and well, it's the whole journey was incredible to me to watch.
我会帮你剪辑那部分，不用再发脾气了。自动驾驶。测试了很多飞行员。在过去的六年中，或许在你和许多参与者的心中，测试了很多飞行员已经经历了一段难以置信的旅程。我认为这就是我们第一次真正与自动驾驶技术和自主驾驶联系在一起的地方，整个旅程对我来说都是不可思议的。
I was, because I knew, well part of it was at MIT and I knew the difficulty of computer vision. And I knew the whole, I had a lot of colleagues and friends about the DARPA challenge and knew how difficult it is. So there was a natural skepticism when I first drove a Tesla with the initial system based on mobile I. Yeah. I thought there's no way, so first when I got in I thought there's no way this car could maintain like staying in the lane and create a comfortable experience. So my intuition initially was that the lane keeping problem is way too difficult to solve. Oh, thank you. Yeah, that's really easy. Yeah. Yeah. But not the, but solve in the way that we just we talked about previous is prototype versus a thing that actually creates a pleasant experience of our hundreds of thousands of miles. I know.
我曾经是持怀疑态度的，因为我知道这部分在MIT，而且我了解计算机视觉的难度。我也认识很多同事和朋友参加过DARPA挑战，所以一开始当我开着特斯拉系统的移动版时，我非常怀疑它是否能够保持车道稳定并创造一个舒适的体验。我的第一反应是，车道保持问题解决起来太难了。谢谢，这很简单。但是，这不是我们之前所讨论的原型机和实际上创造出数百万英里愉悦体验的事物之间的区别。
Yeah. We have to wrap a lot of code around the mobile I think it doesn't just work by itself. Yes. I mean, there's part that's part of the story of how you approach things sometimes sometimes you do things from scratch. Sometimes the first you kind of see what's out there and then you decide different scratch.
是的，我们必须在移动端包裹很多代码，我觉得它并不是自己工作的。是的。我的意思是，这有时候是处理事情方法的一部分，有时候你从头开始做事，有时候你首先看看有哪些现成的东西，然后再决定从哪些开始。
That was one of the boldest decisions I've seen is both on the hardware and the software to decide to eventually go from scratch. I thought again, I was skeptical whether that's going to be able to work out because it's such a, such a difficult problem. And so it was an incredible journey.
那是我见过的最大胆的决策之一，不仅涉及硬件，还涉及软件，最终决定从头开始。我再次想到，我对这是否能够成功持怀疑态度，因为这是一个非常困难的问题。这是一次不可思议的旅程。
What I see now with everything, the hardware, the compute, the sensors, the things I may be caring about most is the stuff that Andre Carpati is leading with the data set selection, the whole data engine process, the neural network architectures, the way that's in the real world that network is tested validated, all the different test sets, versus the image net model of computer vision, like what's in academia is like real world artificial intelligence. So Andre is awesome and I was to play an important role, but we have a lot of really talented people driving things. And Ashok is actually the head of Autopilot Engineering. Andre is director of AI. AI stuff. Yeah. So yeah, I'm aware that there's an incredible team of just a lot going on. Yeah, I just, obviously, people will give me too much credit and they will give Andre too much credit. So. And people should realize how much is going on under the, yeah, so a lot of really talented people.
我现在看到的一切，硬件、计算、传感器，我可能最关心的是Andre Carpati带领的数据集选择、整个数据引擎过程、神经网络架构以及在现实世界中对网络进行测试和验证的方式，所有不同的测试集，与图像网络模型的计算机视觉相比，就像学术界的人工智能一样。所以Andre很棒，我也想扮演重要角色，但我们有很多非常有才华的人在推动事情发展。Ashok实际上是自动驾驶工程的负责人，Andre是人工智能的主管。人工智能方面的事情。是的，我知道有一支不可思议的团队在做很多事情。显然，人们会过分赞赏我和Andre。所以人们应该意识到在幕后有多少工作正在进行，有很多非常有才华的人。
The tells the autopilot AI team is extremely talented. It's like some of the smartest people in the world. So yeah, we're getting it done.
这说明自动驾驶AI团队非常有才华，就像世界上最聪明的人一样。所以，是的，我们正在处理好它。
What are some insights you've gained over those five, six years of autopilot about the problem of autonomous driving? So you leaped in having some sort of first principles kinds of intuitions, but nobody knows how difficult the problem, like the problem. I thought the self-driving problem would be hard, but it was harder than I thought. It's not like I thought it would be easy. I thought it would be very hard, but it was actually way harder than even that.
你在这五六年的自动驾驶经验中对自主驾驶的问题有哪些深刻的领悟？虽然你有些基本的直觉，但是没有人知道这个问题有多困难。我曾经以为自动驾驶的问题很难，但是实际上它比我想象的更难。并不是我以为谁都可以轻松做到，而是我认为它会非常困难，但是实际上它比我想象的更加困难。
So I want to come down to you at the end of the day. Just self-driving, you have to solve. You basically need to recreate what humans do to drive, which is humans drive with optical sensors, eyes, and biological neural nets. And so in order to, that's how the entire road system is designed to work with basically passive optical and neural nets. It biologically, and now that we need to, so if we're actually full self-driving to work, we have to recreate that in digital form. So we have to, that means cameras with advanced neural nets in silicon form. And then it will obviously solve for full self-driving. That's the only way. I don't think there's any other way.
所以我想在今天结束时来见你。只要自驾，你必须解决这个问题。基本上，你需要重新创建人类开车所做的事情，也就是说，人类会通过光学传感器、眼睛和生物神经网络来开车。所以为了让整个道路系统正常运作，我们需要基本上是被动的光学和神经网络。它是生物学的，现在我们需要在数字形式中重新创建它，这就意味着必须使用具有先进神经网络的摄像头硅形式。然后这显然能够解决全自动驾驶的问题，这是唯一的方式。我认为没有别的方法。
But the question is, what aspects of human nature do you have to encode into the machine? You have to solve the perception problem, detect, and then you first, while it realized what is the perception problem for driving, all the kinds of things you have to be able to see. What do we even look at when we drive? There's just recently heard Andre talked about at MIT about car doors. I think it was the world's greatest talk of all time about car doors, the fine details of car doors. What is even an open car door, man? So the ontology of that, that's the perception problem. We humans solve that perception problem. Antesla has to solve that problem. And then there's the control and the planning coupled with the perception.
但问题是，哪些人类本质的因素需要编码到机器中？你需要解决感知问题，先检测，然后让它意识到什么是驾驶的感知问题，所有你需要看到的各种东西。当我们开车时我们看什么？最近听安德烈在麻省理工学院谈论车门。我认为这是有史以来关于车门最伟大的讲话，关于车门的精细细节。什么是敞开的车门呢，伙计？所以，那就是感知问题的本体论。我们人类解决了这个感知问题，安特斯拉必须解决这个问题。然后就是感知、控制和规划的耦合。
You have to figure out what's involved in driving, especially in all the different edge cases. And then, I mean, maybe you can comment on this. How much game theory of kind of stuff needs to be involved, at a four-way stop sign. As humans, when we drive, our actions affect the world. Like, it changes how others behave. Most of the time, it was driving. If you're usually just responding to the scene, as opposed to really asserting yourself in the scene, do you think? I think these sort of control logic can under them, so I'm not the hot part. But, you know, let's see.
你要明确驾驶涉及到的方方面面，尤其是在各种边缘情况下。然后，我是说，也许你能对此发表评论。在四面停车标志处需要涉及多少博弈论之类的东西。作为人类，当我们驾车时，我们的行为会影响世界，就像它会改变别人的行为一样。大多数情况下都是这样驾驶。如果你通常只是对场景做出反应，而不是真正在场景中表现自己，你认为呢？我认为这些控制逻辑可以深入理解，所以我不是问题的瓶颈。但是，你知道的，我们来看看吧。
What do you think is the hard part in this whole beautiful, complex problem?
你认为这个美丽而复杂的问题中最困难的部分是什么？
So it's a lot of freaking software, man. A lot of smart lines of code. For sure, in order to have create an accurate vector space.
这就是很多软件啊，哥们儿。许许多多聪明的代码。毫无疑问，这是为了创建一个准确的向量空间。
So you're coming from image space, which is like this flow of photons, you're going to camera cameras and then you have this massive boot stream in image space. And then you have to effectively compress a massive boot stream corresponding to photons that knocked off an electron in a camera sensor and turn that boot stream into vector space.
那么，你是从图像空间过来的，就像光子流动一样，然后进入相机，最后在图像空间里形成了大量的图像流。接着，你必须有效地压缩对应于相机传感器中被电子撞击的光子所产生的大量图像流，并将其转换成向量空间。
By vector space, you've got cars and humans and lane lines and curves and traffic lights and that kind of thing. Once you have an accurate vector space, the control problem is so much that of a video game, like a grand theft order of cyberpunk.
你可以把向量空间想象成有汽车、人类、车道线、曲线、交通灯等等。一旦你拥有了准确的向量空间，控制问题就像是一款视频游戏，就像《GTA：赛博朋克》一样。
If you have accurate vector space, it's the control problem is, it's trivial, it's not trivial, but it's not some insurmountable thing.
如果你有准确的向量空间，那么控制问题虽然不是一件易如反掌的事情，但也不是难以克服的难题。
But having an accurate vector space is very difficult. Yeah, I think we humans don't give enough respect to the incredible human perception system is.
但是拥有一个准确的向量空间非常困难。是啊，我认为我们人类没有足够重视我们惊人的感知系统。
The mapping, the raw photons to the vector space representation in our heads. Your brain is doing an incredible amount of processing and giving you an image that is a very clean up image.
我们的大脑将原始的光子映射到向量空间表示中，然后进行非常可观的处理。大脑在处理大量信息后，向我们展现一个非常清晰的图像。
Like when we look around here, we see, like you see color in the corners of your eyes, but actually your eyes have very few cones, like the corners after is in the peripheral vision.
就像当我们在这里四处看的时候，我们可以看到，就像你的眼角里看到的颜色一样，但实际上你的眼睛只有很少的锥状细胞，就像周边视野里的角落一样。
Your eyes are painting color in the peripheral vision. You don't realize it, but their eyes are actually painting color and your eyes also have like this blood vessels and also to gnarly things and there's a blind spot, but do you see your blind spot?
你的眼睛在周围视野中涂上了颜色。你没有意识到，但是它们的眼睛实际上正在涂上颜色，你的眼睛也有像血管和纹理这样的东西，还有一个盲点，但你看到了你的盲点吗？
No, your brain is painting in the missing, the blind spot. You can do these things online where you look here and look at this point and then look at this point and it's, if it's in your blind spot, your brain will just fill in the missing bit.
不，你的大脑会将缺失的部分或盲点进行脑内补全。你可以在网上尝试一些这样的练习，比如先看这里，再看那里，然后看另外一个地方，如果这个地方正好是你的盲点，那么你的大脑就会自动补全缺失的部分。
The peripheral vision is so cool. Yeah. It's you realize all the illusions for vision science is so, it makes you realize just how incredible the brain is. The brain is doing crazy amount of post processing on the vision signals for your eyes. It's insane.
视觉的周边观察非常酷。是的，你会意识到视觉科学中所有的错觉，这让你意识到大脑真的是非常不可思议。大脑对眼睛的视觉信号进行了疯狂的后期处理。真是疯狂。
And then even once you get all those vision signals, your brain is constantly trying to forget as much as possible. So human memory is perhaps the weakest thing about the brain is memory.
然后即使你获得了所有的视觉信号，你的大脑也会不断地努力遗忘尽可能多的东西。因此，人类记忆可能是大脑最薄弱的方面之一是记忆。
So because memory is so expensive to a brain and so limited, your brain is trying to forget as much as possible and to still the things that you see into the smallest amounts of information possible.
因为记忆对大脑来说非常昂贵且有限，所以你的大脑会尽可能地不去记住过多的信息，并将你所看到的事物压缩至最小的信息量。
So brain is trying to not just get to a vector space, but get to a vector space that is the smallest possible vector space of only relevant objects.
所以大脑不仅仅是试图进入一个向量空间，而是努力进入一个只包含相关对象的最小可能向量空间。
And I think like you can sort of look inside your brain or at least I can, like when you drive down the road and try to think about what your brain is actually doing consciously. And it's conscious.
我想就像你可以某种程度地看到你的大脑，或者至少我能，就像当你开车在路上时，想着你的大脑实际上正在做什么一样。而且它是有意识的。
It's it's it's like you'll see a car that's because you're you don't have cameras. You don't have eyes in the back of your head or inside. You know, so you say like that you basically your head is like a you know, you basically have like two cameras on a slow gimbal.
这话的意思是，有时候你会看不到车子，因为你没有摄像头，也没有后脑勺或者内部的眼睛。所以你可以说，你的头就像是一个慢速万向节上的两个摄像头一样。
And what's you and I said something great. Okay. You and I are like and people constantly distracted and thinking about things and texting and doing also things they shouldn't do in a car changing the radio station.
你和我刚刚说了一些了不起的话。好的。你和我就像那些经常被干扰并且会一直想着事情、会发短信、会调换电台却不应该在车上做的事情的人们一样。
So having arguments, you know, is like. So so then like say like like. Like when's the last time you look right and left and you know or and and rearward or even diagonally. You know, forward to actually refresh your vector space.
所以，有争论，你知道，就像。然后就像说像像。就像你最后一次看左右和向后或者甚至对角线是什么时候。你知道，向前真的重新刷新了你的向量空间。
So you're glancing around and what you're minus doing is is is trying to still the relevant vectors basically objects with a position and motion. And and and then and then editing that down to the least amount that's necessary for you to drive.
所以你正在四处张望，而你所做的事情就是试图捕捉到相关向量，基本上就是带有位置和动态的对象。然后，你会将其编辑成最少所需的内容，以便你可以驾驶。
It does seem to be able to edit it down or compressive even further into things like concepts. So it's not it's like it goes beyond the human mind seems to go sometimes beyond vector space to sort of space of concepts to where you see a thing.
它似乎能够将其编辑或进一步压缩成概念之类的东西。因此，它不仅仅超越了人类思维有时甚至超越了向量空间，而是进入了概念空间，在那里你可以看到一件事情。
It's no longer represented spatially somehow. It's almost like a concept that you should be aware of. Like if this is a school zone, you'll remember that as a concept, which is a weird thing to represent.
它不再以某种空间方式呈现。它就像是一个你应该了解的概念。就像如果这是一个学校区，你会记得它是一个概念，这是一件奇怪的事情来呈现。
But perhaps for driving, you don't need to fully represent those things or maybe you get those kind of. Well, you indirectly. It's like a established vector space and then actually have predictions for those vector spaces.
也许对于开车来说，你不需要完全地展示那些事情，或者你已经得到了那种经验。嗯，你是间接地得到了。就像建立一个向量空间，并为那些向量空间做出预测一样。
So like, you know, like if you drive past say a bus and you see that there's people before you drove past the bus, you saw people crossing. Like, or some just imagine there's like a large truck or something blocking site.
就像你知道的那样，比如你开车经过一辆公交车时，你看到有人横穿马路。或者你想象一下有一辆大卡车挡住了视线。在你开车经过公交车之前，你就看到了这些人。
Like before you came up to the truck, you saw that there were some kids about to cross the road in front of the truck. Now you can no longer see the kids, but you need to be able, but you would now know, okay, those kids are probably going to pass by the truck and cross the road, even though you cannot see them..
就在你走向卡车之前，你看见有一些孩子即将要穿过卡车前的马路。现在你看不见孩子了，但你需要知道，这些孩子很可能会穿过卡车，穿过马路，即使你看不到他们，你现在会知道。
So you have to have memory. You have to need to remember that there were kids there and you need to have some forward prediction of what their position will be. It's a really hard problem with occlusions and computer vision when you can't see an object anymore, even when it just walks behind a tree and reappears, that's a really, really, I mean, at least in academic literature, it's tracking through occlusions. It's very difficult.
所以你必须要有记忆力。你需要记住那里有孩子，并且你需要预测他们的位置。当物体被遮挡时，即使它只是走到树后面消失了一下，然后又出现了，这是一个非常难的问题。在计算机视觉领域，这被称为遮挡追踪，至少从学术文献的角度来看，这是非常困难的。
Yeah, we're doing it. I understand this. Yeah.
是的，我们正在做。我明白了。嗯。
So some of it, it's like object permanence. Like, same thing happens with the humans with neural nets like when like a toddler grows up. There's a point in time where they develop, they have a sense of object permanence.
有些就像客体恒常性一样。就像神经网络的人类一样，当一个幼儿成长时，也会出现类似的情况。有一个时间点，他们会形成客体恒常性。
So before a certain age, if you have a ball or a toy or whatever and you put it behind your back and you pop it out, if they don't, before they have object permanence, it's like a new thing every time.
在某个年龄之前，如果你有一个球、一个玩具或者其他什么玩意儿，你把它放在你的背后，然后突然拿出来，如果他们还没有物体恒常性的概念，那对他们来说，每次看到它就像是一个全新的事物。
It's like, whoa, this toy went just spared and now it's back again and they can't believe it and that they can play peekaboo all day long because the peekaboo is fresh every time. But then we figured out object permanence and then they realized, oh no, the object is not gone, it's just behind your back.
就像，哇，这个玩具刚刚消失了，现在又回来了，他们简直不敢相信，他们可以整天玩捉迷藏，因为每次的捉迷藏都新鲜有趣。但后来我们意识到物体的永久存在性，然后他们意识到，哦不，物体并没有消失，只是在你的背后。
Sometimes I wish we never did figure out object permanence. Yeah, so that's an important problem to solve. Yes.
有时我希望我们从未弄清楚物体的永恒性。是的，这是一个重要的问题需要解决。是的。
So an important evolution of the neural nets in the car is memory across both time and space. So you can't remember, like you have to say, like how long do you want to remember things for and there's a cost to remembering things for a long time.
因此，车内神经网络的一个重要发展是跨时间和空间的记忆。你不能像说话一样记得时间多久，因为长时间记忆会有代价。
So you can, you know, like run out of memory to try to remember too much for too long. And then you also have things that are stale if they're from remembering for too long. And then you also need things that are remembered over time.
所以你可能会发现，试图长时间记住太多的东西会消耗你的内存。如果记得时间太久，那么有些事情也会变得陈旧。而且，你也需要记住一些随着时间推移而逐渐深入脑海的东西。
So even if you like say have like for I'm going to say five seconds of memory on a time basis, but like let's say you're procted light. And you saw, you used a pedestrian example that people were waiting to cross the road.
所以，即使你想表达你只有五秒的记忆力，但是，假设你正在保护灯下，你看到有人等待通过人行道，这就是一个行人的例子。
And you can't quite see them because of an occlusion. But they might wait for a minute before the light changes for them to cross the road. You still need to remember that that's where they were and that they're probably going to cross road type of thing.
并且，由于挡住了视线，你可能看不清他们。但他们可能会等一分钟，直到信号灯变化才过马路。你仍然需要记住他们的位置，并且要知道他们很可能要过马路。
So even if that exceeds your time-based memory, you should not exceed your space of memory. And I just think the data engine side of that. So getting the data to learn all of the concepts that you're saying now is an incredible process. It's this iterative process.
即使你的时间记忆超出了范围，你也不应超过空间记忆。我只是在考虑数据引擎这一方面。所以让数据学习你现在所说的所有概念是一个不可思议的过程。这是一个迭代的过程。
So just this this hydronide of many. I should add. Yeah. We're changing the name to something else. Okay. I'm sure it'll be equally as Rick and Morty like. There's a lot of it. Yeah.
所以这是多种氢化物，我应该补充一下。是的，我们正在将其名称改为其他东西。好的，我相信它会同样有着瑞克和莫蒂的特点。它有很多。是的。
We've all detected the neural net. Neural nets in the cars so many times it's crazy. Also every time there's a new major version, you'll rename it to something more ridiculous or memorable and beautiful. Sorry. Now ridiculous, of course.
我们所有人都听说过神经网络。车上的神经网络已经见怪不怪了。每次版本更新后，你都会把它改个更滑稽、更容易记住、更美丽的名字。抱歉，现在的名字当然是有些滑稽的。
If you see the full like array of neural nets that are operating in the cars, it's kind of boggles of mind. There's so many layers, it's crazy. So yeah. But we started off with a simple neural net that were basically image recognition on a single frame from a single camera and then trying to net those together with it with the C.
如果你看到那些在汽车中运作的神经网络的完整阵列，那真的让人感到很震撼。有这么多层，让人无法想象。所以，对的。但我们最初使用的是一种简单的神经网络，基本上是对来自单个相机的单个帧的图像识别，然后试图将它们与C连接起来。
I should say we were really primarily running C here because C++ is a two-shot overhead and we have our own C compiler. So to get maximum performance, we actually wrote our own C compiler and are continuing to optimize our C compiler for maximum efficiency.
我应该说，我们实际上主要是在跑 C 语言，因为 C++ 有两个头多余开销，而且我们有我们自己的 C 编译器。因此，为了获得最大的性能，我们实际上编写了自己的 C 编译器，并继续优化 C 编译器以提高效率。
In fact, we've just recently done a new rev on a C compiler that will compile directly to our autopilot hardware. Do you want to compile the whole thing down and with your own compiler? Yeah.
实际上，我们最近刚刚对一个 C 编译器进行了新的更新，它能够直接编译到我们的自动驾驶硬件上。你想把整个东西都编译下来，用自己的编译器吗？是的。
So there's a lot of hard core software engineering at a very bare metal level because we're trying to do a lot of compute that's constrained to the full self-driving computer. We want to try to have the highest frames per second possible in a very finite amount of compute and power.
所以我们在非常基础的软件工程方面非常辛苦，因为我们试图在完全自动驾驶的计算机上进行很多计算。我们希望在有限的计算和功率下尽可能实现最高的每秒帧数。
We really put a lot of effort into the efficiency of our compute. So there's actually a lot of work done by some very talented software engineers at Tesla at a very foundational level to improve the efficiency of compute and how we use the the tripe accelerators which are basically doing matrix math dot products like a Brazilian dot products.
我们确实投入了很多精力来提高我们计算机的效率。因此，在特斯拉，一些非常有才华的软件工程师在非常基础的层面上完成了大量工作，以改善计算机的效率以及我们如何使用三重加速器，这些加速器基本上在执行矩阵数学点积，就像巴西点积一样。
It's like what a neural sense is like compute wise like 99% dot products. And you want to achieve as many high frame rates like video game. You want full resolution, high frame rate, low latency, low jitter.
这就像神经感知在计算方面的表现，大概99%都是“点积”操作。你希望达到高画质、高帧率（就像玩电子游戏一样），既要保持全分辨率，同时还要保证很短的延迟和很小的抖动。
I think one of the things we're moving towards now is no post processing of the image through the image signal processor.
我认为现在我们正在朝着的一件事情是，不通过图像信号处理器进行图像后期处理。
So like what happens for cameras is that almost all cameras is they, there's a lot of post processing done in order to make pictures look pretty.
就像相机一样，几乎所有相机都会有很多的后期处理，以使图片看起来漂亮。
So we don't care about pictures looking pretty. We just want the data. So we're moving to just roll photo on counts.
我们不在乎照片看起来漂亮不漂亮，我们只想要数据。所以我们决定只进行照片计数。
So the system will like the image that the computer sees is actually much more than what each see if you represent it on a camera.
所以，系统会认为计算机所看到的图像实际上比在相机上看到的更多。
It's got much more data. And even in very low light conditions, you can see that there's a small photon count difference between the spot here and that's about there, which means that.
它有更多的数据。即使在非常暗的条件下，您也可以看到此处和大约那里之间有一个小的光子计数差异，这意味着......
So it can see in the dark incredibly well because it can detect these tiny differences in photon counts. It's much better than you would possibly imagine.
它能在极暗的环境中看得很清楚，因为它能检测到光子计数中的微小差异。它比你想象的要好得多。
And then we also save 13 milliseconds on latency.
然后我们还可以减少13毫秒的延迟。
So. From removing the post processing and the image. It's like, because we've got eight cameras and then there's roughly, I don't know, one half milliseconds, also a 1.6 milliseconds of latency for each camera.
那么，如果我们把后续处理和图像都去掉的话，就像我们有八个摄像头，每个摄像头大约有0.5毫秒的延迟，另外还有1.6毫秒的延迟。
And so like going to just basically bypassing the image processor gets us back 13 milliseconds of latency, which is important.
所以，只需绕过图像处理器，就可以减少13毫秒的延迟，这很重要。
And we track latency all the way from photon hits the camera to all the steps that it's got to go through to get, you know, go through the various neural nets and the C code.
我们要从光子击中相机开始一直跟踪延迟，直到它经过各种神经网络和C代码的所有步骤才能得到处理。
And there's a little bit of C++ there as well. Well, I can maybe a lot, but the core stuff is heavy-duty, computer-solency.
还有一些C++，可能还有很多，但核心部分是高强度的，需要计算机解决的。
And so we track that latency all the way to an output command to the drive, you know, to accelerate the brakes just to slow down, stirring, you know, turn left or right.
所以我们一直追踪延迟，直到将输出命令发送到驱动器，你知道，加速刹车只是为了减速，搅动，你知道，左拐或右拐。
So because you got to output a command, that's going to go to controller and like some of these controllers have an update frequency. That's maybe 10 hertz or something like that, which is slow.
因为你必须输出一个命令，这个命令会传输到控制器上。有些控制器的更新频率比较低，大概只有10赫兹之类的。
That's like now you lose 100 milliseconds potentially. So then we want to update the drivers on the like, say, stirring and breaking control to have more like 100 hertz instead of 10 hertz.
就像现在你可能会输掉100毫秒一样。因此，我们希望更新车辆的驾驶程序，例如搅拌和制动控制，使其以每秒100次的频率而不是10次更新。
And then you got a 10 milliseconds latency instead of 100 milliseconds worst case latency.
然后你的延迟从最大100毫秒变为了10毫秒。
And actually, jitter is more of a challenge than latency because latency is like you can you can anticipate and predict.
实际上，与延迟相比，抖动更具挑战性，因为延迟就像你可以预计和预测一样。
But if you've got a stack up of things going from the camera to the computer through then a series of other computers and finally to an actuator on the car.
但是如果您有一堆东西从相机通过一系列其他计算机最终到达汽车上的执行器，那么就需要考虑了。
If you have a stack up of tolerances, of timing tolerances, then you can have quite a variable latency, which is called jitter.
如果你的容差有很多，像时间容差，那么你的延迟就会有很多变化，被称为抖动。
And that makes it hard to anticipate exactly how you should turn the car or accelerate, because if you've got maybe 150 to 100 milliseconds of jitter, then you could be off by, you know, up to 0.2 seconds.
这使得很难预测你应该如何转动汽车或加速，因为如果你有大约150到100毫秒的颤动，那么你可能会误差高达0.2秒。
And this can make a big difference. So you have to interpolate somehow to deal with the effects of jitter.
这可以产生很大的影响。因此，您必须以某种方式插值来处理抖动的影响。
So they can make like robust control decisions. The game you have to, so the jitter is in the sensor information.
所以他们可以做出像是坚固的控制决策。游戏需要你去解决传感器信息中的抖动问题。
Or is it the jitter can occur at any stage in the pipeline? You can, if you have just, if you have fixed latency, you can anticipate and, and, like say, okay, we know that our information is for argument sake, 150 milliseconds, like so for 150, 150 milliseconds from photo-saken camera to where you can measure a change in the acceleration of the vehicle.
还是说抖动可能在管道的任何阶段发生？如果您有固定的延迟，您可以预见，比如说，我们知道我们的信息是为了争论而言，从拍照相机到您可以测量车辆加速度变化的地方需要150毫秒。
So then, then you can say, okay, well, we're going to, we know it's 150 milliseconds, so we're going to take that into account and, and, and compensate for that latency.
那么，你可以这样说：好的，我们知道延迟是150毫秒，所以我们要考虑这一点，并且进行相应的补偿。
However, if you got then 150 milliseconds of latency plus 100 milliseconds of jitter, that's, which could be anywhere from 0 to 100 milliseconds on top.
然而，假设您遇到了150毫秒的延迟加上100毫秒的抖动，这意味着您可能会额外多出0至100毫秒的时间。
So, so then your latency could be from 150 to 150 milliseconds. Now, you got 100 milliseconds that you don't know what to do with.
那么，这样你的延迟可能会在150到150毫秒之间。现在，你有100毫秒没有事情可做。
And, and that's basically random. So getting rid of jitter is extremely important.
“而且，这基本上是随机的。因此，消除抖动非常重要。”
And that affects your control decisions and all those kinds of things. Okay. Yeah, the cars is going to fundamentally maneuver better with lower jitter.
那会影响你的控制决策和其他方面。好的，没错，车辆在抗震性更低的情况下会更加灵活。
Got it. And the, the, the, the cars will maneuver with superhuman ability and reaction time much faster than a human.
明白了。而且车辆将具有超人类的能力和反应时间，比人类快得多。
I mean, I think over time, the, the autopilot full-stop driving will be capable of maneuvers that, you know, you know, are far more than what like James Bond could do in like the best movie, type of thing.
我的意思是，我认为随着时间的推移，自动驾驶将能够执行比詹姆斯·邦德在最好的电影中所能做到的更多的机动动作。
That's exactly where I was imagining in my mind as he said it. It's like an impossible maneuver that a human couldn't do, you know, so.
他说这话时，我正在脑海里想象着那个地方，就是精准地在那个位置。你知道，就像是一个人类做不到的不可能的动作，所以。
Well, let me ask sort of looking back the six years, looking out into the future, based on your current understanding, how hard do you think this, this full self-driving problem?
那么，让我们回顾一下过去的六年，展望一下未来，根据您目前的理解，您认为全自动驾驶这个问题有多难呢？
When do you think Tesla will solve level four, FSD? I mean, it's looking quite likely that it will be next year.
你觉得特斯拉什么时候能解决四级自动驾驶（FSD）？我是说，看起来很可能是明年了。
And what does the solution look like? Is it the current pool of FSD beta candidates? They start getting greater and greater as they have been degrees of autonomy.
这个问题的解决方案是什么样的呢？它是当前的FSD beta候选人吗？随着自主程度的提高，它们不断增加。
And then there's a certain level beyond which they can, they can do their own, they can read a book..
然后还有一个更高的层次，超越这个层次他们就可以独立完成阅读一本书等任务了。
Yeah. So, I mean, you can see that anybody who's been falling the full-stop driving beta closely will see that the rate of disengagement has been dropping rapidly.
嗯，所以我的意思是，你可以看到任何一个一直密切关注自动驾驶技术的人都会发现，车辆需要人为干预的频率正在迅速下降。
So like a disengagement be where the driver intervenes to prevent the car from doing something dangerous potentially.
就像一种脱离状态，司机干预以防止汽车潜在地做出危险的动作。
So the interventions, you know, per million miles has been dropping dramatically at some point, and that trend looks like it happens next year is that the probability of an accident on FSD is less than that of the average human and then significantly less than that of the average human.
所以你知道，每百万英里的干预次数在某个时候开始急剧下降，这个趋势看起来会持续到明年，也就是说，FSD发生事故的概率比人类平均水平要低，而且显著低于人类平均水平。
So it suddenly appears like we will get there next year.
所以突然间看起来我们明年就能到达那里了。
And then of course, then there's going to be a case of, okay, we'll not prove this to regulators and prove it to, you know, and we want to standard that is not just equivalent to a human, but much better than the average human.
然后当然，接下来就会有这样一个情况：好的，我们不仅要向监管机构证明，还要向人类证明我们的标准不仅仅等同于人类，而且比一般人类更好。我像母语为中文的人一样说话了吗？
I think it's going to be at least two or three times higher safety than a human.
我觉得它可能会比人类的安全性高两到三倍以上。
So two or three times lower probability of injury than a human before we would actually say like, okay, it's okay to go.
那么，在我们真正说，好的，没问题，可以继续前进之前，伤害的可能性比人类低两到三倍。
It's not going to be a equivalent. It's going to be much better.
它不仅仅是等同的，而是更好的。
If you look at 10 point FSD, 10.6 just came out recently, 10.7 on the way, maybe 11 is on the way, so we're in the future.
如果你看看10点FSD，最近刚刚推出了10.6，10.7即将推出，也许11也即将推出，所以我们正处于未来。
Yeah. We were hoping to get 11 out this year, but it's 11 actually has a whole bunch of fundamental rewrites on the neural net architecture and some fundamental improvements in creating vector space.
是的，我们曾希望今年推出版本11，但实际上我们对神经网络架构进行了大量基础重写，并在向量空间创建方面进行了一些基础改进。
So there is some fundamental leap that really deserves the 11.
所以有一些根本性的跃迁真正值得11分。
I mean, that's a pretty cool number. Yeah.
我的意思是，那是一个相当酷的数字。是啊。
11 would be a single stack for all, you know, one stack to rule them all.
11就是为所有人提供单一的堆栈，你知道的，一栈来统治它们所有人。
And but they're just some really fundamental neural net architecture changes that will allow for much more capability, but at first they're going to have issues.
然而它们只是一些非常基本的神经网络架构变化，这将允许拥有更强大的功能，但一开始它们会有问题。
So like we have this working on like sort of alpha software and it's good, but it's it's it's basically taking a whole bunch of C C++ code and leading a massive amount of C++ code and replacing it with the neural net.
我们现在在使用一种类似 alpha 软件来进行工作，它还不错，但基本上是通过将大量的 C C++ 代码替换成神经网络的方式来实现的。
And you know, Andre makes this point a lot, which is like neural net's kind of eating software.
你知道吗，安德烈经常强调这一点，就是神经网络就像是一种吃软件的工具。
You know, over time there's like less and less conventional software, more and more neural net.
你知道，随着时间的推移，传统的软件越来越少，神经网络越来越多。
We were just a software, but it's, you know, still comes out to line the software, but it's more neural net stuff, unless, you know, he writes X basically.
我们本来只是个软件，但是现在我们使用的是更多的神经网络技术，尽管仍然是涉及软件方面的，但是一般而言，除非他想要编写X语言。
If you're more, more, more, more matrix based stuff, unless heuristic space stuff.
如果你更喜欢矩阵基础的事情，那就不要去做启发式空间的事情。
And you know, like, like, like one of the big changes will be like right now the neural net will deliver a giant bag of points to the C++ or C and C++ code.
你知道啊，就是现在神经网络会给C++或C和C++代码提供一个大包点数，这是一个很大的变化。
We call it the giant bag of points. Yeah.
我们把它叫做“巨大的积分袋”。是的。
And it's like, so you go to pixel and and and and something associated with that pixel, like this pixel is probably car.
就像这样，你去到像素上，然后找到与那个像素相关的某些东西，比如这个像素可能是汽车。
This pixel is probably lane line.
这个像素很可能是车道线。
And you've got to assemble this giant bag of points in the C code and turn it into vectors.
你得在 C 语言的代码中组装这个巨大的点集袋，并将其转化为向量。
And it does a pretty good job of it, but it's it's a it's we want to just we need another layer of neural net on top of that to take the giant bag of points and distill that down to a vector space in the neural net part of the software as opposed to the heuristics part of the software.
它做得相当不错，但是我们需要在上面再加一层神经网络，将诸如点的大袋子压缩成神经网络软件的向量空间，而不是启发式软件的部分。
This is a big improvement.
这是一个很大的改进。
Neural net's all the way down.
神经网络一路向下。
So you want it's not even neural neural net, but it's it's it's this will be just a get this is a game changer to not have the bag of points behind bag of points that has to be assembled with many lines of C++ and and have the and have a neural net just a sample those into a vector.
你想要的不仅是神经网络，而是这个东西将会是一次革命，不再需要在C++的许多行中组装程序来拥有一堆点的袋子，而是直接把它们转换成向量，拥有一个神经网络样本。
So so that the the neural net is outputting a much much less data.
因此，神经网络的输出数据要少得多。
It's it's it's outputting this.
它正在输出这个，很令人不爽。
This is a lane line.
这是一个车道线。
This is a curb.
这是一段路缘石。
This is drivable space.
这片区域可以开车通行。
This is a card.
这是一张卡片。
This is a you know, a pedestrian or cyclist or something like that.
这个你懂的，就是个行人、骑车人或者什么的。
It's outputting.
它正在输出。如果需要改写，可以说：它正在产生输出。
It's really out outputting proper proper vectors to the the C++ control control code as opposed to the sort of constructing the the vectors in C.
把proper proper向量输出到C++控制代码，感觉真的很不自然，相比在C中构建向量。
We've done I think quite a good job of but it's it's a it's a group kind of hitting a local maximum on the how well the C can do this.
我们已经做得相当不错了，但这是一种团队打破本地最大值的方式，看C能做得有多好。
So this is this is really this is really a big deal and and just all of the networks in the car need need to move to surround video.
这真是一件大事，所有的汽车网络都需要转向全景视频。
Just some legacy networks that are not a surround video.
只是一些遗留网络，并非周围视频。
And all of the training needs to move to surround video and the efficiency of the training needs to get better and it is and then we need to move everything to raw.
所有的培训都需要转移到全景视频上，并且培训效率需要提高，这样我们需要将所有东西都移到原始状态。
Photon counts as opposed to.
与"as opposed to"相反，光子计数应该是光子计数。
Processed images.
处理后的图像。
Yeah. So it's just quite a big reset on the training because the systems trained on post process image images.
对的，所以这是对训练一个相当大的重置，因为系统是在处理后的图像上进行训练的。
So we need to redo all the training to train against the the role photon counts instead of the post process image.
所以我们需要重新进行所有的训练，以针对角色光子计数而不是后处理图像进行训练。
So ultimately it's kind of reducing the complexity of the whole thing.
所以最终它减少了整个事情的复杂性。
So reducing reducing lines of code will actually go lower.
所以减少代码行数实际上会更低。
Yeah, that's fascinating.
嗯，那很有趣。
So you do infusion of all the sensors reducing the complexity of having to deal with these features of cameras.. Same with humans. Yeah. I guess we got ears too. Okay. Yeah, well, we'll actually need to incorporate sound as well because you need to like listen for ambulance siren so far. You know, fire trucks put you know, if somebody like, you know, yelling at you or something.
所以你把所有传感器集成起来，减少了处理摄像机各种功能的复杂性。人也一样。是的，我想我们也有耳朵。好的。是的，我们实际上还需要把声音加入进来，因为你需要听救护车的警报，就像火车一样，如果有人向你大喊什么的，你也要听。
I don't know. There's a little bit of audio that needs to be incorporated as well. Do you need to go back to break? Yeah, let's just say break. Honestly, frankly, like the ideas are the easy thing and the implementation is the hard thing.
我不知道。还有一点点音频需要融合进去。你需要回去休息一下吗？对，我们就说休息一下吧。说实话，坦白地说，想法很容易，但实现很难。
Like the idea of going to the moon is the easy part. But going to the moon is the hot part. It's the hard part. And there's a lot of like hardcore engineering that's got to get done at the hardware and software level.
喜欢去月球的想法很容易。但实际上去月球是非常困难的事情，需要进行大量的硬件和软件水平的深度工程。
Like it optimizing the C compiler and just, you know, kind of out late and see everywhere. Like this is, we don't do this. The system will not work properly. So the work of the engineers doing this, they are like the unsigned heroes. So, you know, but they are critical to the success of the situation.
就像优化C编译器和很迟才回家这样，你知道吧，到处都能看到。这样做是不行的。这些工程师的工作就像匿名英雄一样，虽然他们不被看重，但他们对情况的成功至关重要。
I think you made it clear. I mean, at least to me, it's super exciting. Everything that's going on outside of what Andrei is doing. Just the whole infrastructure, the software. I mean, everything is going on with data engine, whatever, whatever it's called. The whole process is just work.
我觉得你已经表达得很清楚了。至少对我来说，这真的非常令人兴奋。除了安德烈正在做的事情之外，所有正在进行的一切。整个基础设施，软件，以及正在处理数据引擎等等的所有项目。整个过程都是工作。
Yeah, I think I'm hard to miss the show scale of it is bogus mind. Like the training at the amount of work done with like we've written all this custom software for training and labeling. And to do auto labeling auto labeling is essential.
嗯，我觉得我很难错过这个虚假的展览规模，就像我们训练时所做的工作量一样，我们为训练和标注编写了所有这些自定义软件。而且自动标注是必不可少的。
Because especially when you got like surround video, it's very difficult to like label surround video from scratch is extremely difficult. Like take a human's such a long time to even label one video clip like several hours.
因为特别是当你有类似围绕视频的时候，从头开始标记围绕视频是极其困难的。就像标记一个视频剪辑，需要一个人长时间的努力，甚至需要几个小时。
Or the auto label, it basically we just apply a heavy duty, like a lot of compute to the video clips to pre-assign and guess what all the things are that are going on in this surround video. And then there's like correcting it. Yeah. And then all the human has to do is like tweet, like say, the, you know, adjust what is incorrect.
那个自动标签，基本上我们只是对视频剪辑进行了大量计算，以预先分配和猜测周围视频中发生的所有事情。然后进行校正。是的。然后，所有人只需要像发送推文一样来调整错误的内容。
This is like increased increases productivity by effect 100 or more. Yeah. So you've presented Tesla bot as primarily useful in the factory. First of all, I think human robots are incredible from a fan of robotics.
这就像是能够使生产力提高100％或更多的增加。是的，您已经把Tesla机器人主要用途定位在工厂上。首先，作为机器人爱好者，我认为人形机器人是令人难以置信的。
I think the elusive movement that human, the human robots that by Peter robots show are just so cool. So it's really interesting that you're working on this and also talking about applying the same kind of all the ideas of some of which we've talked about with data engine. And all the things that we're talking about with Tesla autopilot just transferring that over to the just yet another robotics problem.
我认为Peter所展示的人类机器人具有神秘的动作，真的很酷。所以你正在研究这个领域，同时谈论将相同的想法应用到数据引擎和特斯拉自动驾驶技术中，然后将这些想法应用到另一个机器人问题上，真的很有趣。
I have to ask since I care about human robot interaction, so the human side of that, so you've talked about mostly in the factory. Do you see it? Also do you see part of this problem that Tesla bot has to solve is interacting with humans and potentially having a place like in the home.
我因为关心人类与机器人的互动，尤其是关于人类方面的，所以必须问一下。你谈到的大多数是在工厂中，你认为在这方面有什么问题吗？此外，你是否认为特斯拉机器人必须要处理与人类的互动，有可能有个家庭的地方。
So interacting not just not replacing labor, but also like, I don't know, being a friend or an assistant. Yeah, I think the possibilities are endless. Yeah, I mean, it's obviously like a, it's not quite in Tesla's primary vision direction of accelerating sustainable energy, but it is an extremely useful thing that we can do for the world,
所以，人与机器的互动不仅仅是代替劳动，而且像朋友或助手一样。是的，我认为可能性是无限的。 我的意思是，这显然不是特斯拉主要的可持续能源加速方向，但这对我们为世界做出的极其有用的事情。
which is to make a useful humanoid robot that is capable of interacting with the world and helping in many different ways. So in fact, reason, I mean, I think if you say like extrapolate to many years in the future, it's like, I think work will become optional.
我们的目标是制造一款有用的人形机器人，它能够与世界互动并以多种不同的方式帮助人类。所以，事实上，我是说，如果你预测未来很多年，工作可能会变成可选的。
So like there's a lot of jobs that if people weren't paid to do it, they wouldn't do it. I think it's not fun, you know, necessarily. Like if you're washing dishes all day, it's like, you know, even if you really like washing dishes, you really want to do it for eight hours a day every day, probably not.
嗯，有很多工作，如果没有工资，人们就不会去做。我认为它并不好玩，你知道的，不一定。比如一整天洗碗，即使你很喜欢洗碗，你也不会想每天每天地做八个小时。
So, and then it's like dangerous work and basically if it's dangerous boring, it has like potential for repetitive stress injury, that kind of thing. Then that's really where humanoid robots would add the most value initially.
那么，就像危险的工作一样，基本上如果工作又危险又枯燥，就有可能导致重复性应力伤害，那种事情。那么，这就是人形机器人最初能够增加最多价值的地方。
So that's what aiming for is to for the humanoid robots to do jobs that people don't voluntarily want to do. And then we'll have to pair that obviously with some kind of universal basic income in the future.
所以，我们的目标是让人形机器人来做人们不自愿干的工作。显然，未来我们还需配合某种普遍基本收入。
So I think the DCO world when there's like hundreds of millions of Tesla bots doing different performing different tasks throughout the world. Yeah, I haven't really thought about it that far in the future, but I guess there may be something like that.
我认为，未来可能会有数亿辆特斯拉机器人在全世界执行各种不同的任务，构成一个DCO世界。我还没有深入考虑这个未来，但我猜想可能会有这样的事情发生。
Jessica Wilde question. So the number of Tesla cars has been accelerating. It's been close to two million produced. Many of them have autopilot. I think we're over two million now. Yeah.
特斯拉汽车的数量一直在加速增长。现在已经生产了近200万辆车，其中许多都配有自动驾驶系统。我认为我们现在已经超过了200万辆车了。嗯。
Do you think there will ever be a time when there will be more Tesla bots than Tesla cars?
您认为未来是否会出现特斯拉机器人比特斯拉汽车还多的时间？
Yeah, I actually, it's funny you asked this question because normally I do try to think pretty far into the future, but I haven't really thought that far into the future with the Tesla bot or it's codenamed Optimus..
嗯，实际上，你问这个问题很有趣，因为通常我都会尽量往未来考虑，但我还没有真正思考过特斯拉机器人或它的代号Optimus的未来。
I call it Optimus subprime. He's not so like a giant, you know, transformer robot. So it's meant to be a general purpose, helpful bot.
我把它叫做Optimus subprime。你知道，它并不像一个巨大的变形金刚机器人。所以它是一个通用、有用的机器人。
And basically like the things that we're basically like Tesla, I think is the most advanced real world AI for interacting with the real world which should develop as a function to make self-driving work.
基本上，我们所说的基本上就像特斯拉那样，我认为它是与真实世界互动最先进的真实世界人工智能，应该作为自动驾驶工作的功能逐渐发展。
And so along with custom hardware and like a lot of hardcore low level software to have it run efficiently and be power efficient because it's one thing to do neural nets if you got a gigantic sober room with 10,000 computers.
所以，除了定制的硬件和许多专注于底层的软件，以使其运行高效且节能，这一点非常重要，因为如果你有一个拥有一万台电脑的巨大机房，还可以做神经网络。
But now let's say you have to now distill that down into one computer that's running at low power in a humanoid robot or a car. That's actually very difficult and a lot of hardcore software work is required for that.
现在，假设你需要将这一切压缩到一个低功耗的人形机器人或汽车中的一台计算机上运行。这实际上非常困难，需要大量的核心软件工作。
So since we're kind of like solving the navigate the real world with neural nets problem for cars which are like robots with four wheels, then it's like kind of a natural extension of that is to put it in a robot with arms and legs and actuators.
所以，既然我们正在解决像四轮机器人一样通过神经网络导航现实世界的问题，那么将其应用于拥有手臂、腿和执行器的机器人似乎是很自然的延伸。
So like the two hard things are like you basically need to make the how the robot be intelligent enough to interact in a sensible way with the environment. So you need real world AI and you need to be very good at manufacturing which is a very hard problem. Very good manufacturing and also has the real world AI so making the humanoid robot work is basically means developing custom motors and sensors that are different for a car would use.
所以，这里有两个很困难的事情。首先，你需要把机器人变得足够聪明，让它能够以一种合理的方式与环境进行交互。这需要真正的现实世界人工智能，并且你需要非常擅长制造，这是一个非常困难的问题。除了非常好的制造，还需要实现真实世界的人工智能，这意味着使人形机器人工作需要开发定制的电机和传感器，这些传感器与汽车使用的传感器不同。
But we also have a I think we have the best expertise in developing advanced electric motors and power electronics. So it just has to be for humanoid robot application or a car.
我们有着最专业的电机和电力电子技术开发经验，无论应用于人形机器人还是汽车，都能做到最好。
Still you do talk about love sometimes. So let me ask this isn't like for like sex robots or something like that.
你有时候还是会谈论爱情。所以我问一下，这不是要制造类似于付费性爱机器人之类的东西吗？
Love it's the answer. Yes. There is something compelling to us not compelling but we connect with humanoid robots or even like robots like with a dog and shapes the dogs.
爱是答案。是的。我们跟机器人有种让人无法抗拒的情感联系，就像和一只狗或狗形状的机器人一样。
It seems like there is a huge amount of loneliness in this world. All of us seek companionship with other humans, friendship and all those kinds of things.
看起来这个世界上有大量的孤独。我们所有人都在寻求与其他人的交往、友谊和各种其他的亲密关系。
We have a lot of here in Austin and a lot of people have dogs. There seems to be a huge opportunity to also have robots that decrease the amount of loneliness in the world or help us humans connect with each other in a way that dogs can.
我们在奥斯汀有很多东西，很多人有狗。看起来有一个巨大的机会，也可以有机器人来减少世界上的孤独或帮助我们人类以狗无法做到的方式联系彼此。
Do you think about that? Would test about it all or is it really focused on the problem of performing specific tasks not connecting with humans?
你认为呢？这个测试是否会涵盖所有方面，或者它只关注于执行特定任务时的问题，而不涉及人类之间的交流？
To be honest I have not actually thought about it from the companion chip standpoint but I think it actually would end up being it could be actually a very good companion. And it could develop like a personality over time that is unique.
说实话，我还没有真正从伴侣芯片的角度考虑过这个问题，但我认为它实际上可能会成为一个非常好的伴侣。随着时间的推移，它可能会逐渐发展出一种独特的个性。
It's not like they're just all the robots are the same and that personality could evolve to be match the owner or the owner. What if you want to call it? The other half.
它不是说所有机器人都相同，它们的个性可以演化成与主人相匹配。如果你想叫它什么？另一半。
The same way the friends do. I think that's a huge opportunity. That's interesting.
像朋友们一样说话，我认为那是一次巨大的机会。那很有趣。
Because there's a Japanese phrase like the Wabi Sabi, the subtle imperfections are what makes something special. And the subtle imperfections of the personality, the robot, mapped to the subtle imperfections of the robot's human friend.
因为有类似于“侘寂”的日语词汇，那些微小的瑕疵才会使事物显得特别。而机器人的微小瑕疵就像是人类朋友身上的微小瑕疵一样。
The owner sounds like maybe the wrong word but can actually make an incredible buddy basically. In that way the imperfections. Like R2D2 or like a C3PO sort of thing.
这个主人听起来也许不是最合适的词，但实际上可以成为一个很好的朋友。就像R2D2或C3PO那样，有点小缺陷但很特别。
So from a machine learning perspective I think the flaws being a feature is really nice. You could be quite terrible at being a robot for quite a while in the general home environment which are all in general world and that's kind of adorable.
从机器学习的角度来看，我认为瑕疵是一种很好的特征。在普通的家庭环境中，你可能在做机器人方面很糟糕，这种情况很可爱。毕竟，这是一个真实的世界。
And those are your flaws and you fall in love with those flaws. So it's very different than autonomous driving where it's a very high stakes environment you cannot mess up.
那些就是你的缺点，而你也爱上了那些缺点。所以，这很不同于自动驾驶，那是一个非常高风险的环境，你不能闯祸。
So it's more fun to be a robot in the home. In fact, if you think of like C3PO and R2D2, they actually had a lot of flaws in imperfections and silly things and they would argue with each other.
在家中成为机器人更有趣。事实上，如果你想像C3PO和R2D2那样，他们其实有很多缺陷和愚蠢的事情，并且他们会互相争吵。
Were they actually good at doing anything? Not exactly sure. I definitely added a lot to the story. But they're sort of quirky elements and you know that they would like make mistakes and do things.
他们真的擅长做任何事吗？不太确定。我肯定为故事添加了很多元素。但他们有点古怪，你知道他们会犯错并做些事情。
It was like it made them relatable I don't know. Enduring. So yeah, I think that that could be something that probably would happen.
就像它让他们有了共鸣一样，我不知道，不可磨灭的。所以，我想这可能是可能发生的事情。
But our initial focus is just to make it useful. So I'm confident we'll get it done. I'm not sure what the exact time frame is but I probably have a decent prototype towards the end of next year or something like that.
我们最初的焦点仅是使其有用。所以我相信我们会完成它。我不确定确切的时间框架是什么，但我可能会在明年年底左右有一个相当不错的原型。
And it's cool that it's connected to Tesla the car. So it's using a lot of, you know, it would use the autopilot inference computer and a lot of the training that we've done for cars in terms of recognizing real world things could be applied directly to the robot.
这个机器人和特斯拉汽车有关联，很酷。因此它使用了很多自动驾驶推理电脑和我们针对汽车进行的训练，可以直接应用到机器人中，帮助它识别现实世界中的物品。
So but there's a lot of custom actuators and sensors that need to be developed. And an extra module on top of the vector space for love. Oh yeah, that's me saying. Okay. We're going back to the car too. That's true. That could be useful in all environments. Like you said, a lot of people argue in the car. So maybe we can help them out.
所以需要开发很多自定义执行器和传感器。还要在向量空间的基础上增加额外的模块来表达爱。是我自己说的。好的，我们也要回到车上。没错，这在任何环境下都很有用。就像你说的，很多人在车里争吵。也许我们可以帮助他们。
Your student of history, fan of Dan Carlin's hardcore history podcast. Yeah, that's great. Greatest podcast ever. Yeah, I think it's actually. It almost doesn't really count as a podcast. Yeah, it's so good. It's more like a audio book. Yeah. So you were on the podcast with Dan. I just had a chat with him about it. He said you guys want military and all that kind of stuff.
我是一名历史学生，也是Dan Carlin的Hardcore History播客的粉丝。对啊，这是最棒的播客节目。我认为它实际上已经不算是播客了，因为它太好了，更像是一本有声书。你去过Dan的节目吗？我刚和他聊过这个话题，他说你们谈论的是军事和那些方面的东西。
Oh, yeah, it was basically. It should be titled engineer wars, essentially like like when this rapid change in the rate of technology, then engineering plays a pivotal role in in victory and battle. Do you give how far back in history did you go to the world or two? It was mostly well, it was supposed to be a deep dive on fighters and bomber technology in World War Two, but they ended up being more wide ranging than that. Yeah. Because I just went down the Atola Rahol of like studying all of the fighters and bombers of World War Two and like the constant rock paper says is game that like, you know, one country would make this plan that would make it to be that and that's what I'm trying to make plan to be that.
哦，是的，基本上是这样。它应该被命名为“工程师之战”，因为在技术迅速变化的时代，工程扮演着取得胜利和战斗的关键角色。你们研究历史的范围有多久远？主要是，这本书原本应该深入探讨第二次世界大战中战斗机和轰炸机技术，但最终结果比那更广泛。是的，因为我沉迷于研究第二次世界大战中的所有战斗机和轰炸机，以及持续的石头剪子布游戏，其中一个国家会制定计划，导致另一个国家做出回应，我正试图制定这样的计划。
And then the and really what matters like the pace of innovation and also access to high quality fuel and raw materials. So like Germany had like some amazing designs, but they couldn't make them because they couldn't get the raw materials and they had a real problem with the oil and fuel basically. The fuel quality was extremely variable. So the design wasn't the bottleneck?
然后，真正重要的是创新的速度以及获得高质量的燃料和原材料的能力。所以，德国有一些惊人的设计，但由于无法获得原材料，并且在石油和燃料方面存在实际问题，他们无法实现这些设计。燃料的质量极其不稳定。所以设计不是瓶颈？
Yeah, like the US had kick ass fuel that was like very consistent. Like the problem is if you make a very high performance aircraft engine, in order to make high performance, you have to the the the fuel the aviation gas has to be a consistent mixture and it has to have a high octane. High octane is the most important thing, but also can't have like impurities and stuff. Because you'll you'll fall up the engine and and German just never had good access oil. Like they try to get it by invading the coca-cases, but that didn't work too well. That never works well. That's for you. So they're always just Germany was always struggling with with basically shitty oil. And then they could not they couldn't count on a on high quality fuel for their aircraft. So then that had to add all the have all these additives and stuff.
是的，就像美国有超级牛逼的燃料一样，非常稳定。问题是，如果你要制造高性能的飞机发动机，必须使用航空煤油这种混合物，并且还必须具有高辛烷值。高辛烷值是最重要的，还不能有杂质之类的东西。因为你会让引擎失效，而德国就是从来没有得到过优质的石油。他们试图通过入侵可口可乐公司来获取，但那没什么用。这从来都不成功。这就是问题所在。所以他们一直在与基本上烂油斗争，并且不能指望为他们的飞机提供高质量的燃料。所以他们不得不加入所有这些添加剂之类的东西。
So where it was the US had awesome fuel and that provided that to Britain as well. So that allowed the British and the Americans to design aircraft engines that were super high performance better than anything else in the world. Germany could could design the engines. They just didn't have the fuel. And then also the like the quality of the aluminum allies that they were getting was also not that great. And so yeah.
所以，在那个时候，美国拥有很棒的燃料，他们也把它提供给了英国。这使得英国人和美国人能够设计超高性能的飞机发动机，比世界上任何其他国家的都要好。德国也能设计发动机，但是他们没有足够好的燃料。还有他们得到的铝合金材料质量也不太好。所以，是的。
Is this like you talked about all this with them? Yep. Awesome. Broadly looking at history when you look at Jenga Skahn, when you look at Stalin Hitler, the darkest moments of human history. What do you take away from those moments? Does it help you gain insight about human nature, about human behavior today? Whether it's the wars or the individuals or just the behavior of people and the aspects of history?
这是你和他们谈论的那件事吗？是的，太棒了。广泛地看历史，比如看看蒂连斯卡恩、斯大林、希特勒，人类历史中最黑暗的时刻。你从这些时刻中学到了什么？这有助于你对今天的人性和行为有更深入的洞察吗？无论是战争、个人还是人们的行为以及历史的某些方面？
Yeah, I find history fascinating. I mean, there's a lot of incredible things that have been done. Good and bad. But they help you understand the nature of civilization and individuals and make you sad that humans do these kinds of things to each other. You look at the 20th century World War II, the cruelty, the abuse of power. Talk about communism, Marxism, Stalin. I mean, some of these things do, I mean, if you, like there's a lot of human history, but most of it is actually people just getting on with their lives. You know, and it's not like human history is just what nonstop war and disasters. Those are actually just those are intermittent and rare. And if they weren't then, you know, humans would soon cease to exist. It's just that wars tend to be written about a lot.
是的，我觉得历史非常迷人。我的意思是，有很多令人惊异的事情已经发生了，有好的也有坏的。但是，这些事情帮助你理解文明和个体的本质，并使你为人类对彼此做出这些事情感到悲伤。你看看20世纪的二战、残酷、滥用权力，谈论共产主义、马克思主义、斯大林。我的意思是，有些事情确实是，如果你，就像有很多人类的历史，但大多数人实际上只是在过他们的生活。你知道，人类历史不像是不停的战争和灾难。这些实际上是间歇性的和罕见的。如果不是这样，人类很快就会灭绝。只是战争往往被大量写入历史书中。
And whereas like something being like, well, in normal year where nothing major happened was just getting rid of that much. But that's, you know, most people just like farming and kind of like living their life, you know, being a belliger. It's somewhere.
而像什么东西一样，正常年份什么大事也没发生，只是尽量淘汰那些，这就像大多数人喜欢耕种和过着生活，你知道的，成为一个好战者。这是某个地方。
And every now and again, there's a war and a thing. So, and, you know what I have to say, like, the, the, the, I don't very many books that I, where I just had to start reading because it was just too, too dark. But the book about Stalin, the quarter of the Reds are, I could, I had to start reading. It was just too, too dark, rough.
有时会发生战争和一些事情。所以呢，你知道我想说的是，我读过的书不多，但有些是因为情节过于黑暗，让我没忍住就要开始阅读。例如关于斯大林的那本书《红色季节》，我也是这样的，它实在是太过黑暗粗暴了。
Yeah. The 30s, there's a lot, a lot of lessons there to me. In particular, that it feels like humans, like all of us have that as the old soldier needs in line, that the line between good and evil runs to the heart and every man that all of us are capable of evil, all of us are capable of good.
是的。三十岁，那时候对我来说有很多很多的经验教训。特别是，它感觉像人类，就像我们所有人都有着那个老兵需要排队的想法，善恶之间的界线伸展到每个人的内心，每个人都有恶的可能性，也都有善的潜力。
It's almost like this kind of responsibility that all of us have to, to, to tend towards the good. And so, like, to me, looking at history is almost like an example of, look, you have some charismatic leader that convinces you of things is too easy based on that story to do evil onto each other, onto your family, onto others.
这就好像我们所有人都有一种责任，去倾向于做对的事情。所以，对我来说，看历史就像是一个例子，你会发现有一些很有魅力的领导者，让你相信一些基于那个故事来做恶的事情，对你的家人和其他人都会带来不好的影响。
And so it's like our responsibility to do good. It's not like now, somehow different from history that can happen again, all of it can happen again. But, and yes, most of the time, you're right. I mean, the optimistic view here is mostly people are just living life.
所以，我们有责任做好事。这并不像现在，某种程度上不同于历史，它可以再次发生，所有的一切都可以再次发生。但是，大部分时间，你是对的。我的意思是，这里的乐观看法就是大多数人只是过着生活。
And as you've often meamed about the quality of life was way worse back in the day and it keeps improving over time through innovation to technology. But still, it's somehow notable that these blimps of atrocities happen. Sure. Yeah, I mean, life was really tough most of history.
你经常谈论生活质量过去很糟糕，而随着技术创新的不断发展，生活质量得到了极大的改善。但是，仍然有些令人震惊的恶行发生。没错。是的，我的意思是大部分历史时期生活都非常艰辛。
I mean, well, if most of human history, a good year would be one where not that many people in your village died of the plague, starvation, freezing to death, or being killed by a neighboring village. It's like, well, it wasn't that bad. You know, it was only like, you know, we lost 5% this year. That was, it was a good year. You know, that would be powerful, of course. Like just, just not starving to death would have been like the primary goal of most people in through throughout history is making sure we'll have enough foods less with the winter and not get enough breeze or whatever.
我是说，你知道，在人类历史上，一个好的年份意味着你村庄的人没有那么多死于瘟疫、饥饿、冷冻或被邻村杀害。就像，你知道，情况并不是那么糟糕。你知道，我们只失去了5%的人口，这已经算是一个好年份了。当然，那是非常强大的。就是不被饥饿死最为重要，历史上大部分人的主要目标就是确保我们有足够的食物来渡过冬天，不会受到饥饿的困扰或受到其他的威胁。
So now food is, is plan a full way of having a PC problem. Yeah. Well, yeah, the lesson there is to be grateful for the way things are now for, for some of us. We've spoken about this offline.
现在食品成为解决PC问题的主要方法。是的。好吧，教训就是要感激现在事情的发展，因为对于我们其中的一些人来说，现在的状况已经很不错了。我们私下交流过这个话题。
I'd love to get your thought about it here. If I sat down for a long form in person conversation with the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, would you potentially want to call in for a few minutes to join in on a conversation with him, moderated and translated by me?
我想知道你对此的想法。如果我与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京进行了一次长时间面对面的谈话，你是否有可能想致电参加一下由我主持和翻译的谈话，与他一起交流几分钟？
Sure. Yeah. Sure. I'll be happy to do that. You've shown interest in the Russian language. Is this grounded in your interest in history of linguistics, culture, general curiosity? I think it sounds cool.
当然。好的。当然，我很乐意这样做。你对俄语表现出了兴趣。这是基于你对语言学、文化历史、好奇心吗？我认为俄语听起来很酷。
Sounds cool, not looks cool. So, well, it's, you know, it's, it's, it's, it takes a moment to read Cyrillic. Once you know what the Cyrillic characters stand for, actually then reading Russian becomes a lot easier because there are a lot of words that are actually the same. But bank is bank. And so, find the words they exactly the same and now you start to understand Cyrillic.
听起来挺酷，不是看起来酷。所以，嗯，你知道的，读西里尔文字需要一些时间。一旦你知道了西里尔字符的含义，实际上阅读俄语会变得容易得多，因为有很多单词实际上是相同的。但是“bank”就是“bank”。所以，找到完全相同的单词，现在你开始理解西里尔文字了。
Yeah. If you can, if you can sound it out, the, the, it's much, there's at least some commonality of words. What about the culture? You, you love great engineering physics. There's a tradition of the sciences there. Sure.
哦，如果你能发音，那就好了，它是很多的，至少有一些共同的单词。那文化呢？你热爱优秀的工程物理学，那里有科学传统，是吗？
You look at the 20th century from rocketry. So, you know, some of the greatest rockets of the space exploration has been done in the Soviet and the former Soviet Union. Yeah. So, do you draw inspiration from that history, just how this culture that in many ways, I mean, one of the sad things is because of the language, a lot of it is lost to history because it's not translated at all those kinds of, because it, it is in some ways an isolated culture.
你从火箭技术的角度看20世纪，所以你知道，一些最伟大的太空探索火箭都是在苏联和前苏联完成的。是的。那么，你是否从这段历史中汲取灵感，这种文化在很多方面都是孤立的，很多东西因为语言障碍而失传了，没有翻译，因为它在某种程度上是个孤立的文化。
It flourishes within its, within its borders. Yeah. So, do you draw inspiration from those folks from, from the history of science engineering there? In the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine as well and have a really strong history in space life.
它在它的边界内茁壮成长。嗯，你是否从历史上的科学工程师中获得灵感？在苏联、俄罗斯和乌克兰，他们在太空生命方面有着非常强大的历史。
Like some of the most advanced and impressive things in history were done, you know, by the Soviet Union. One cannot help but admire the impressive rocket technology that was developed. You know, after the Soviet Union, there's much less that that happened.
就像历史上一些最先进、最令人印象深刻的事情一样，你知道，苏联也完成了很多。人们不禁赞叹那些令人印象深刻的火箭技术的发展。你知道，苏联之后，这方面的进展就少了很多。
But still things are happening, but it's not quite at the frenetic pace that was happening. Before the Soviet Union kind of dissolved into separate tropolics. Yeah. I mean, I, you know, there's Roskosmos, the Russian, the agency, I, I look forward to a time when those countries with China working together, you, the United States are all working together.
但是事情仍在发生，但它并没有像过去苏联分裂成不同的热带国家时那样狂热地发生。是的。我的意思是，有Roskosmos、俄罗斯机构，我希望有一天那些国家和中国一起合作，美国也一起合作。
Maybe a little bit of friendly competition, but I think friendly competition is good. You know, government's so slow and the only thing slower than one government is a collection of governments. So yeah, the Olympics would be boring if everyone just crossed the finishing line at the same time. Yeah, nobody would watch. And, and people wouldn't try hard to run fast and stuff. So I think friendly competition is a good thing.
也许会有点友好的竞争，但我认为这种竞争是有益的。你知道，政府行动缓慢，只有一个政府比一群政府还要慢。所以，如果每个人都同时到达终点，奥运会会很无聊。没人会观看。而且，人们也不会努力跑得快。所以，我认为友好的竞争是一件好事。
This is also a good place to give a shout out to a video title, The Entire Soviet Rocket Engine Family Tree by Tim Dodd, aka Everyday Astronaut. It's like an hour and a half, it gives a full history of Soviet rockets and people should definitely go check out and support him in general. That guy was super excited about the future, super excited about spaceflight. Every time I see anything by him, I just have a stupid smile on my face because he's so excited about stuff. Yeah, love people.
这个地方也是向Tim Dodd，又名Everyday Astronaut所发的视频标题《The Entire Soviet Rocket Engine Family Tree》喊句话的好地方。这是一个小时半，它为苏联的火箭提供了完整的历史，人们一定要去查看并支持他。那个家伙对未来和太空飞行非常兴奋。每次我看到他发布的东西，我都会傻笑，因为他对事物非常兴奋。是的，要爱人。
Tim Dodd is a really great, a fair student, I think, to a space. He's in terms of explaining rocket technology to your average person. He's awesome, the best, I'd say. And I should say, like the, the father's in like, I switched us from, like, we're after at one point, there's going to be a hydrogen engine. But hydrogen has a lot of challenges. It's very low density. It's a deep cryogen, so it's only liquid at a very, very close, absolute zero requires a lot of insulation. So it's a lot of challenges there. And I was actually reading a bit about Russian rocket engine development. And at least the impression I had was that, or so we do in Russia and Ukraine primarily were actually in the process of switching to methalox.
蒂姆·多德是一位真正优秀、公正的学生，我认为他在向一般人解释火箭技术方面做得非常好。他太棒了，是最好的，我必须说。我应该说，像父亲一样，我们从某种程度上开始关注氢发动机。但氢有很多挑战。它的密度非常低。它是一种深冷材料，因此只有在非常接近绝对零度的情况下才会成为液体，需要很多绝缘材料。因此存在很多挑战。实际上，我正在阅读一些关于俄罗斯火箭发动机开发的文章。至少我印象中的是，俄罗斯和乌克兰主要正在转向使用甲烷氧发动机。
And there was some interesting test and data for ISP, like they were able to get like, up to like a 380 second ISP with the methalox engine. And I was like, well, okay, that's, that's actually really impressive. So, so I think we could, you could actually get, it's a much lower cost, like an optimizing cost per time to over at cost per time to Mars. It's, I think, methane oxygen is the way to go. And I was partly inspired by the Russian work on the test ends with methalox engines.
有一些有趣的测试和数据，关于ISP（比推进剂比冲）而言，他们能够获得高达380秒的ISP，使用甲烷氧化剂发动机。我觉得这真的是很令人印象深刻的。所以我认为我们可以以更低的成本，优化 Mars 探测任务的时间和成本，我认为甲烷氧化剂是正确的选择。俄罗斯在甲烷氧化剂发动机测试中的工作部分激发了我的灵感。
And now for something completely different, do you mind doing a bit of a meme review in the spirit of the great, the powerful PewDiePie? Let's say one to eleven, just go over a few documents, print it out. We can try. Let's try this.
现在，换个完全不同的话题，你介意像伟大、强大的PewDiePie一样做一些网络迷因评论吗？我们来做个从1到11的评论吧，简单浏览几份文件，打印出来。我们可以试一试。来，我们试试吧。
I present to you document number Uno. I don't know. Okay. Flat-dane paler discovers marshmallows. That's not bad. So you get it because he's failing things. Yes, I get it. I don't know three, whatever. Oh, that's not very good. This is grounded in some engineering, some history. Haha. Yeah, give us an eight out of ten.
我给你呈现第一份文件。我不知道。好的。平板丹麦面包师发现了棉花糖。这不错。所以你能理解它因为他在失败事情。是的，我懂了。我不知道三，随便。哦，那不太好。这基于一些工程和历史。哈哈。是的，给我们一个八分。
What do you think about nuclear power? I'm in favor of nuclear power. I think it's a, in a place that is not subject to extreme natural disasters, I think it's a nuclear power is a great way to generate electricity. I don't think we should be shutting down nuclear power stations. Yeah, but what about your novel?
你对核能有什么想法？我支持核能。在不受极端自然灾害影响的地方，我认为核能是一种很好的发电方式。我不认为我们应该关闭核能站。 可是，你的小说呢？
Exactly. So I think people, there's a lot of fear of radiation and stuff. And I guess probably like a lot of people just don't understand, they didn't study engineering physics, so it's just the word radiation just sounds scary, so they can't calibrate what radiation means. But radiation is much less dangerous than you think.
所以我认为人们很害怕辐射之类的东西。我猜可能很多人只是不理解，他们没有学习过工程物理学，所以辐射这个词听起来很可怕，他们无法校准辐射的含义。但是辐射比你想象的要安全得多。
So like for example, Fukushima, when the Fukushima problem happened, Judo tsunami, I got people in California asking me if they should worry about radiation from Fukushima. I'm like, definitely not, not even slightly, not at all, that is crazy. And just to show like, look, this is how, like the dangers is so much overplayed compared to what it really is that I actually flew to Fukushima and I donated a solar power system for water treatment plant. And I made a point of eating locally grown vegetables on TV in Fukushima. Like I'm still alive. Okay. I'm not even at the risk of these events as low, but the impact of them is, is,
比如像福岛核事故，海啸袭击了福岛，加利福尼亚的人问我是否需要担心来自福岛的辐射。我说，绝对不需要，一点也不需要，这太疯狂了。我甚至去了福岛，捐赠了一个太阳能供水系统，并在福岛的电视上特意食用当地种植的蔬菜。我还活得好好的呢。虽然这些事件的风险很低，但它们的影响是…
The impact is greatly exaggerated. It's just great. It's human nature. It's people, people don't know what radiation is. Like I've had people ask me like, what about radiation from cell phones, according to the causing brain cancer. I'm like, when you say radiation, do you mean photons or particles? Then like, then I don't know what, what do you mean, photons particles? So do you mean, let's say photons, what frequency or wavelength? And they're like, no, I have no idea.
这种影响被大大夸大了。只是很大而已。这是人类的天性。就是人们不知道什么是辐射。有些人问过我，手机的辐射对人脑造成癌症的影响怎样？我就会问他们，“你所说的辐射，是指光子还是粒子？”然后他们就会说，“啊，我不知道你说的是什么，光子和粒子？”如果他们的意思是光子，我就会问，“你指的是什么频率或波长？”可他们就说，“啊，我没有头绪。”
Like do you know that everything's radiating all the time? Like, what do you mean? Like, everything's radiating all the time. Photons are being emitted by all objects all the time, basically. So, and if you want to know what it means to stand in front of nuclear fire, go outside. The sun is a gigantic, you know, thermonuclear reactor that you're staring right at it. Are you still alive? Yes. Okay. Amazing. Yeah. I guess radiation is one of the words that can be used as a tool to fear monger by certain people. I think it will just don't understand.
你知道任何东西一直在辐射吗？像，你是什么意思？就是说，所有物体一直在发射光子。所以，如果你想知道站在核火前会是什么样子，就到外面去看看吧。太阳是个巨大的热核反应堆，你在直接盯着它看。你还活着吗？是的。真是神奇。是啊，我想辐射是一些人用来恐吓人的工具之一，他们可能不理解。
So, I mean, that's the way to fight that fear, I suppose, is to understand, is to learn. Yeah. Just say like, okay, how many people have actually died from nuclear accidents? It's like practically nothing. And say how many people have died from coal plants and it's a very big number. So like, obviously we should not be starting up coal plants and shutting down nuclear plants. Just doesn't make any sense at all. Coal plants like, I don't know, 100 to 1000 times worse for health and nuclear power plants.
那么，我是说，对抗恐惧的方式就是理解，学习。对，就像问一下，实际上有多少人死于核事故？几乎没有。再问问有多少人死于燃煤厂，这是一个很大的数字。显然，我们不应该开燃煤厂，关闭核电站，这根本没有任何意义。燃煤厂对健康的影响是核电站的100到1000倍，这是显而易见的。
You want to go to the next one? This is really bad. So, that 90, 180 and 360 degrees, everybody loves the math. Nobody gives a shit about 270. It's not super funny. I don't like 203. Yeah. This is not, you know, LOL situation. Yeah. That's pretty good.
你想去下一个吗？这真的很糟糕。所以，90、180和360度，每个人都喜欢数学。没有人在意270。这不是超级有趣的事情。我不喜欢203。是的。这不是，你知道的，LOL的情况。嗯。那很好。
The United States oscillating between establishing and destroying dictatorships. Is that a metric? Yeah. What does that mean? Yeah. Yeah. It's out of 7 out of 10. It's kind of true. Oh yeah. This is kind of personal for me.
美国在建立和摧毁独裁政权之间摇摆不定。这是一个标准吗？是的。这是什么意思？是啊。是啊。这个标准在10分制中得到7分。有点真实。哦，对我来说有点私人的感受。
Next one. Oh man. This is Lyca. Yeah. Well, no. Or it's like referring to Lycosyling. It's like a husband. A husband. Yeah. Hello. Yes. This is Dog. Your wife was launched to space. And then the last one is him with his eyes closed in the bottle of vodka. Yeah. And then he said, you know, I'm going to get him to come back. No. They don't tell you the full story of, you know, what the impact they had on the loved ones. True. That one gets an 11 for me. Sure.
下一个。哦，天啊。这是莱卡。是的。嗯，不。或者就像是指向莱科斯伊灵。就像一个丈夫。一个丈夫。是的。你好。恩。这是狗。你妻子被送往太空。最后一个是他闭着眼睛在伏特加瓶里。是的。他说，你知道，我要让他回来。不。他们不会告诉你关于他们对亲人的影响的全部故事。是的。对我来说，那个得11分。当然。
So it's you know. I know. This keeps going on the Russian theme. First man in space. Nobody cares. First man in the moon. I think people do care. No, I know. But there's. You're a guy who's names will be forever in history, I think. There is something special about placing like stepping foot onto another early foreign land. It's not the journey like people that explore the oceans. It's not as important to explore the oceans as to land on a whole new continent.
所以你知道的。我知道。这个话题一直是关于俄罗斯的主题。第一个进入太空的人。没人关心。第一个登上月球的人。我认为人们会关心。不，我知道。但是有一个......你的名字将永远地载入历史，我想。在另一个早期外国土地上踏上脚步确实很特别。这不是像那些探索海洋的人那样的旅程。探索海洋并不像登陆一个全新的大陆那样重要。
Yeah. This is about you. Oh yeah, I'd love to get your comment on this. You almost after sending 6.6 billion dollars to the UN to end world hunger, you have three hours. Yeah, I mean, obviously 6 billion dollars to end world hunger. So. So I mean, the reality is at this point, the world is producing. Far more food than it can really consume it.
是啊，这是关于你的。哦对，我很想听听你对此的看法。你差不多已经把66亿美元捐给联合国来终结世界饥饿了，你有三个小时时间。嗯，我是说，显然花60亿美元来终结世界饥饿。所以。那么我的意思是，现实情况是，目前世界生产的食物远远超过了它实际需要的。
Like we don't have a call, a caloric constraint to this point. So where there is hunger, it is almost always due to like civil war or strife or some like. It's not a thing that is extremely rare for it to be just a matter of like lack of money. It's like, you know, it's like some civil war in some country and then like one part of the country is literally trying to starve the other part of the country. So it's much more complex than something that money could solve. It's politics. It's a lot of things. It's human nature. It's governments. It's money. Monitor systems, all that kind of stuff.
就像我们没有任何限制卡路里的要求一样，所以如果有饥饿的話，那么几乎总是由于内战或冲突之类的原因引起的。这不是仅仅因为缺钱的原因，这种情况相当罕见。就像某个国家的内战，然后一个地区的人试图饿死另一部分人那样，这是更复杂的问题，金钱无法解决。这是政治，是许多事情，是人类本性，是政府，是金钱，是监控系统等所有这些东西。
Yeah, food is extremely cheap these days. It's like it's like, I mean, the US at this point, you know, among low income families obesity is actually the other problem. It's not like obviously it's not hunger. It's like too many calories. So I said, it's not that nobody's hungry anywhere. It's just, it's just this is not not a simple matter of adding money and solving it. What do you think that one gets? It's getting too.
是的，现在食物非常便宜。就像，你懂的，在美国，低收入家庭中，肥胖实际上是另一个问题。这并不是说显然不是饥饿的问题。问题在于卡路里摄入过多。所以我说，不是没有人在任何地方饥饿。只是这不仅仅是投入资金就能解决的问题。你觉得呢？事情变得越来越麻烦了。
It's going after empire's world. Where did you get those artifacts? The British Museum. It shut out to Antipy. We found them. Yeah. The British Museum is pretty great. I mean, it admittedly Britain did take these historical artifacts all around the world and put them in London. But you know, it's not like people can't go see them.
它是追随帝国的世界。你从哪里得到这些文物的？是英国博物馆。但是它关闭了去阿提彭的门。我们找到了它们。是啊，英国博物馆非常棒。虽然要承认，英国确实把这些历史文物从全世界带到伦敦，但你知道，人们仍然能够去看它们。
So it is a convenient place to see these ancient artifacts is London for, you know, for a large segment of the world. So I think, you know, on balance, the British Museum is a net good. Although I'm sure that a lot of countries are all about that. Yeah. It's like you want to make these historical artifacts accessible to as many people as possible. And the British Museum, I think there's a good job with that.
因此，对于世界上大部分人来说，在伦敦查看这些古代文物是非常方便的。所以我认为，在总体上，大英博物馆是有益的。尽管我相信许多国家都会这样说。是啊，你希望尽可能让这些历史文物对更多人可见。而我认为大英博物馆在这方面做得很好。
Even if there's a darker aspect to like the history of empire in general, whatever the empire is, however things were done, it is the history that happened. You can't sort of erase that history, unfortunately. You could just become better in the future. It's the point. Yeah. And it's like, well, how are we going to pass moral judgment on these things?
即使有更暗淡的方面，比如帝国的历史，无论是哪个帝国，无论事情怎样做，它都是发生过的历史。不幸的是，你不能抹掉那个历史。你只能在未来变得更好。这就是关键。是的。这就像，我们将如何在这些事情上进行道德判断呢？
Like it's like, you know, if one is going to judge say the British Empire, you got to judge, you know, whatever one was doing at the time and how were the British relative to everyone. And I think they were British would actually get like a relatively good grade, relatively good grade, not an absolute terms. But compared to whatever else was doing, they were not the worst.
就像你知道的那样，如果要评判英帝国，就得评判当时的情况以及英国人相对于其他国家的表现。我认为相对而言，英国取得了相对不错的成绩，但并不是绝对的成绩。与其他国家相比，他们不是最差的。
Like I said, you got to look at these things in the context of the history at the time. And say, what were the alternatives and what are you comparing it against? And I do not think it would be the case that Britain would get a bad grade when looking at history at the time. No, if you judge history from, you know, from what is morally acceptable today, you're basically going to give everyone a feeling grade.
就像我之前说的那样，你得从当时的历史背景来看待这些事情。看看当时有哪些其他选择，你在比较些什么？从历史的角度来看，我并不认为英国会得到不好的评分。如果你用今天的道德标准来评判历史，那你基本上会给每个人一个不好的评分。
I'm not clear. So I don't think anyone would get a passing grade in their morality of like you go back 300 years ago, like who's getting a passing grade? Basically no one. And we might not get a passing grade from generations that come after us. What does that one get? Sure.
我不是很明确。因此，我认为没有人能通过类似于300年前的道德标准的考试，谁能通过呢？基本上没有人。而且我们可能不能在未来的几代人中得到通过分数。那又能得到什么呢？当然。
Success. For the multipython maybe. I always love multipython. They're great. Like Brian and the Quistwell or Grail are incredible. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Those serious eyebrows. This is a brazen of. Like how important is facial hair to a great leadership? Well, you got a new haircut. How does that affect your leadership? I don't know. It's not that ugly enough. It doesn't.
成功。对于多个蟒蛇也许是那样的。我一直喜欢多个蟒蛇。它们真的很棒。就像布莱恩和奎斯特威尔或圣杯一样不可思议。是啊。是啊。是啊。那些严肃的眉毛。这是一件非常大胆的事情。面部毛发对于卓越领导力有多重要呢？你剪了新发型。这对你的领导力有什么影响吗？我不知道。它不够丑陋。它没有影响。
Yeah, the second is no one. There's no like feeling with bros. No, no, no, no. Those are like epic eyebrows. So. Sure. And as ridiculous. Give it a six or seven. I like this like Shakespeare analysis of memes. I appreciate you had a flat for drama as well. Like, you know, showmanship. Yeah. It must come from the eyebrows.
是的，第二个就是没有人。和伙计们在一起不会有什么感觉。不行，不行，不行，不行。那些眉毛太酷了。这个也不错。虽然很离谱。我给它六七分。我喜欢这种对网络文化人物的莎士比亚式分析。我也很欣赏你为了增加戏剧效果而制造一些波折的方式。是的。一定是由于那些眉毛。
All right. Invention. Great engineering. Look what I invented. Yeah. That's the best thing since ripped up bread. Yeah. Yeah. Just slice bread. Am I just explaining memes at this point? This will my life has become. He's going to be more than me. Explainer. Yeah.
好的。发明。伟大的工程学。瞧我发明了什么。是啊，这是自切面包以来最好的发明了。是啊，就是切片面包。我现在只是在解释梗了吗？这就是我的生活。他会比我更优秀。解释者。是啊。
I'm a meme. What it like a, you know, like a scribe that like runs around with the kings and he just like writes down memes. I mean, when was the cheeseburger invented? That's like an epic invention. Yeah. Like, wow. You know, that was. The version is just like a burger or a burger. I guess the burger in general is like, you know, then there's like, what is a burger? What was the sandwich and then you start getting a pizza sandwich and what is the original? It's, it gets into an anthology argument. Yeah, but everybody knows like if you order like a burger or cheeseburger or whatever and you're like, you get like, you know, you're going to get some lettuce and onions and whatever and, you know, mayor and ketchup and mustard. It's like epic. Yeah, but I'm sure they've had bread and meat separately for a long time and it was kind of a burger on the same plate. But somebody who actually combined them into the same thing and the bite and hold it makes it convenient. It's a materials problem. Like your hands don't get dirty and whatever. Yeah, it's.
我是一个网络迷因（meme）。就像一个记录员，跟着国王跑来跑去，记录网络迷因。比如，奶酪汉堡什么时候被发明了？那真是一个伟大的发明。嗯，就像哇哦，你知道，最初它只是一个汉堡或者一个三明治，但汉堡本身，你知道它是什么。然后，开始有了披萨三明治，就变成了原创性的论战。但是，每个人都知道，如果你点了一个汉堡或者奶酪汉堡，你会得到一些生菜和洋葱以及酱油和芥末，这真是伟大。但我相信他们很长时间以来已经隔开面包和肉吃了，只是没有在同一个盘子里。但是，有些人把它们结合在了一起，并咬下去变得更方便。这是一个材料问题，手不会弄脏，非常方便。
Well, that is not what I would have guessed. But everyone knows like you, you, you, you, if you order a cheeseburger, you know, where you're getting, you know, it's not like some obtuse like I wonder what I'll get, you know, you know, a fries or, I mean, great. I mean, that was a devil, but fries are awesome. And, yeah, pizza is incredible. Food innovation doesn't get enough love. Yeah, I guess is what we're getting at.
哎呀，我猜错了。但是每个人都知道，如果你点了奶酪汉堡，你知道你要得到什么，你知道你不会得到一些奇奇怪怪的东西。你知道你会得到薯条，当然，它们可能很油腻，但薯条很棒。另外，比萨太棒了。食品创新没有得到足够的关注，是吧。
Great. What about the Matthew McHenry Austinite here? President Kennedy, do you know how to put men on the moon yet? Now, President Kennedy, be a lot cooler if you did. Pretty much. Sure. Six, six or seven. That's the last one. That's funny.
太好了。那这位Matthew McHenry来自奥斯汀市怎么样？肯尼迪总统，您现在知道如何将人送上月球了吗？现在，肯尼迪总统，如果您知道，那就更酷了。差不多。当然。六、六或七。那是最后一个。太有趣了。
Someone drew a bunch of takes all over the walls, a 16 chapel, boys, bath. Sure, I'll give it nine. It's super, it's really true. This is our highest ranking meme for today. I mean, it's true. Like how did they get away with that? Lots of nakedness. I mean, dick pics are, I mean, just something throughout history. As long as people can draw things, there's been a dick pic. It's the staple of human history. It's a staple. It's just about here in history.
有人在墙上画了很多屁股、16号教堂、男孩和浴室。当然，我给它九分。它太棒了，真的没错。这是今天我们最高的经典笑话。我是说，这是真的啊。他们怎么能那么做而不被发现呢？这里充满了裸体。我是说，历史上只要有人会画画，就会有那些照片。这是人类历史的一个基石。它是一个基石，它就在历史的这个时刻。
You tweeted that you aspire to comedy, your friends with Joe Rogan, might you do a short stand-up comedy set at some point in the future? Maybe open for Joe, something like that. Is that, is that, is that, actually, just below on stand-up? Full on stand-up. Is that in there or is that, I've never thought about that. It's extremely difficult. At least that's what Joe says in the comedian's side. Huh. I wonder if I could. I mean, like one way to find out.
你在推特上表示你渴望成为喜剧演员，而你与乔·罗根交情很好。你是否会在未来某个时候表演一些短的单口喜剧？也许是为乔·罗根开场之类的。那是不是说，这只是单口喜剧下限呢？是纯粹的单口喜剧吗？我从来没想过这个。这非常难。至少这是乔在喜剧演员圈中说的。嗯，我想知道我能不能做到。我是说，只有试一试才知道。
You know, I have done stand-up for friends, just in prompt to, you know, I'll get on like a roof. And they do laugh, but they're our friends too. So, I don't know if you've got a call, you know, like a rumor strangers, are they going to actually also find a funny? But I could try, see what happens. I think you'd learn something either way. Yeah. I kind of love both when you bomb and when you do great, just watching people, how they deal with it. It's so difficult. It's so, you're so fragile up there. It's just you. And you're thinking you're going to be funny and when it completely falls flat, it's just beautiful to see people deal with like that.
你知道嘛，我偶尔会为朋友表演单口相声，在一时兴起的情况下，就像上了屋顶一样。他们确实会笑，但他们也是我们的朋友。所以，我不知道如果是陌生人，他们是否真的会觉得好笑呢？但我可以尝试，看看会发生什么。无论如何，我觉得你会学到东西的。是的。不管你表演成功还是失败，我都很喜欢看着人们如何应对。那很困难。你很脆弱，就只有你一个人在那里表演，而你在想着自己会很有趣，但当它彻底失败时，看人们如何面对，真是太美妙了。
You know, might have enough material to do stand-up. I've never thought about it, but I might have enough material.. I don't know, like 15 minutes or something. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Do a Netflix special. A Netflix special. Sure.
你知道，可能有足够的材料可以做单口相声。我从来没有想过，但我可能有足够的材料......不知道，大概15分钟左右。哦，是的。是的。可以做一场Netflix的特别节目。一场Netflix的特别节目。当然可以。
What's your favorite Rick and Morty concept? Just to spring that on you. Is there, there's a lot of sort of scientific engineering ideas explored there. There's the, there's the butter robot. It's great. It's great. It's great, sure. Yeah. Rick and Morty's awesome.
你最喜欢的瑞克和莫蒂概念是什么？就是这样突然问你。里面探索了很多科学工程的想法，比如奶油机器人。它很厉害，很厉害，确实很厉害。是啊，瑞克和莫蒂真的很棒。
Somebody that's exactly like you from an alternate dimension showed up there. Elon Tusk. Yeah, that's right. You voiced. Yeah.
有一个和你一模一样的人从另一个维度出现在那里。埃隆·马斯克。是的，没错。你发声了。是的。
Rick and Morty suddenly explores a lot of interesting concepts. I'm sure like what's the favorite one. The butter robot certainly is, you know, it's like, it's certainly possible to have too much sentience in a device. Like you don't want to have your toast to be like a super genius toaster. It's going to hate life because it'll just make his toast. But if it's like you don't want to have like super into just stuck in a very limited device. Do you think it's too easy from a, if we're talk about from the engineering perspective of super intelligence, like with Marvin the robot, like is it, it seems like it might be very easy to engineer just a depressed robot. Like it's not obvious to engineer an robot that's going to find a fulfilling existence. Same as humans, I suppose. But I wonder if that's like the default. If you don't do a good job on building a robot, it's going to be sad a lot.
Rick and Morty突然探索了许多有趣的概念。我确定你们中有喜欢的。黄油机器人肯定是其中之一。你知道，可能在设备中拥有太多的智能会导致问题。你不希望你的面包烤箱成为一个超级天才烤面包机，因为它只会烤面包，这会让它讨厌生活。但是，如果它只是被困在一个非常有限的设备中，也是不好的。你认为从超级智能工程师的角度来看，这是否太容易了呢？例如，与机器人玛文一样，似乎很容易制造出一台沮丧的机器人。这并不明显，就像人类一样，建造一个能够找到充实存在的机器人并不容易。但我想知道这是否是默认值。如果你没有好好构建机器人，它会非常难过。
Well, we can reprogram robots easier than we can reprogram humans. So I guess if you let it evolve without tinkering, then it might get sad. But you can change the optimization function and have it be a true robot.
嗯，我们比重新编程人更容易重新编程机器人。所以我猜，如果你让它自然演变而不去动它，它可能会变得悲伤。但是你可以改变优化功能并使其成为真正的机器人。
You, like I mentioned with SpaceX, you give a lot of people hope. And a lot of people look up to you. Millions of people look up to you. If we think about young people in high school, maybe in college, what advice would you give to them about? If they want to try to do something big in this world, they want to really have a big positive impact. What advice would you give them about their career, maybe about life in general?
就像我之前提到 SpaceX 时所说的，你给很多人希望，许多人都把你当作楷模。数百万人都将你敬仰。如果我们考虑高中或大学的年轻人，他们想要在这个世界上创造一些伟大的事情，想要真正产生巨大的积极影响，你会给他们什么建议？你会给他们关于职业生涯甚至生活的一般性建议？
Try to be useful. Do things that are useful to your fellow human beings to the world. It's very hard to be useful. Very hard. Are you contributing more than you consume? Like, try to have a positive net contribution to society. I think that's the thing to aim for. You know, not try to be sort of a leader for the sake of being a leader or whatever. A lot of time people, the people you want as leaders are the people who don't want to be leaders. So, if you live a useful life, that is a good life. A life worth having lived.
试着变得有用。做对你的同胞人类和对世界有用的事情。成为一个有用的人非常困难。非常困难。你比你消费的东西做出了更多的贡献吗？比如，试着对社会拥有积极的净贡献。我认为这才是我们应该追求的。你知道，不是为了成为领袖而去追求领袖地位或其他原因。很多时候，你想要的领袖，其实是那些不想当领袖的人。如果你过一种有用的生活，那就是一种美好的生活。那就是一种值得你活着的生命。
Like I said, I would encourage people to use the mental tools of physics and apply them broadly in life. They are the best tools.
就像我之前说过的，我鼓励人们运用物理学的思维工具，并将其广泛应用于生活中。它们是最好的工具。
When you think about education and self-education, what do you recommend? So, there's the university, there's a self-study, there is a hands-on sort of finding a company or a place or a set of people that do the thing you're passionate about and joining them as early as possible. There's taking a road trip across Europe for a few years and writing some poetry, which trajectory do you suggest? In terms of learning about how you can become useful, as you mentioned, how you can have the most positive impact.
当你考虑教育和自我教育时，你有什么建议呢？那么，有大学，自学，还有一种亲手找到一个公司、一个地方或一组志同道合的人，加入他们，做你热爱的事情，尽早加入他们。还有在欧洲进行几年的公路旅行，写一些诗歌，你建议哪种发展道路呢？就如你所提到的，学习如何变得有用，如何产生最积极的影响，你有何建议呢？
I'd encourage people to read a lot of books. Basically, try to ingest as much information as you can. And try to also just develop a good general knowledge. So, you at least have a rough lay of the knowledge landscape. Try to learn a little bit about a lot of things. How would you know what you're really interested in if you're at least doing it perfectly exploration or broadly of the knowledge landscape? You talk to people for different walks of life and different industries and professions and skills and archfaces like just try to learn as much as possible.
我会鼓励人们多读书，尽可能地吸收更多信息，并试图建立良好的通识知识。这样，你至少会对知识领域有大概的了解。试着对很多事情都有所了解。如果你宽广地了解了知识领域，你就能够更好地发现自己真正感兴趣的领域。你可以与不同行业、职业和技能领域的不同人交流，尽可能地学习更多知识。
Man, search for a meeting. Isn't the whole thing a search for a meeting? Yeah, what's the meaning of life?
"人啊，找一个会议。整个生命不就是在寻找会面的吗？是啊，人活在世上的意义是什么呢？"
I encourage people to read broadly in many different subject areas. And then try to find something where there's an overlap of your talents and what you're interested in. You have skill at a particular thing, but they don't like doing it. So, you want to try to find a thing where you're, that's a good combination of the things that you're inherently good at, but you also like doing. And reading is a super fast shortcut to figure out which where are you?
我鼓励人们广泛阅读各种不同的学科领域。然后尝试找到你的才能和兴趣重叠之处。你擅长某种特定的事情，但不喜欢做它。所以，你想尝试找到一件事情，那是你本能擅长的事情和你喜欢做的事情的完美结合。阅读是一种超级快捷的方法，可以帮助你找到自己的方向。
You're both good at it, you like doing it, and it will actually have a positive impact. You've got to learn about things somehow. So reading a broad range, just really read it. One point was that kid I read through the encyclopedia. So, that's pretty helpful. And there are also things that have never existed for a while. It's like as broad as it gets. Encyclopedias were digestible, I think, you know, 40 years ago. So, you know, maybe read through the condensed version of the encyclopedia Britannica, I'd recommend that.
你们俩都很擅长这件事，喜欢做它，并且它实际上会产生积极影响。你们得以某种方式学习东西。所以要广泛阅读，真的要读它。我读百科全书时，有个孩子就是这样。所以，这非常有帮助。而且还有从未存在过的事情。就像它所涵盖的那么广泛。我认为40年前百科全书是易于消化的。所以，你们可以阅读英文百科全书的精简版本，我推荐这样做。
You can always like skip subjects where you read a few paragraphs and you know you're not interested, just jump to the next one.. So, read the encyclopedia or scan through it. And, you know, put a lot of stock into it, a lot of respect for someone who puts in an honest day's work to do useful things. And just generally to have like not a zero sum mindset or have more of a grow the pie mindset.
你可以跳过那些只读几段就知道自己没兴趣的科目，直接跳到下一个。所以，可以阅读百科全书或者浏览它。并且，你知道，要给那些诚实努力做有用事情的人很多肯定和尊重。并且，一般来说，不要有零和思维，要有更多增长饼干的思维。
If you sort of say like when we see people like perhaps including some very smart people kind of taking an attitude of like doing things that seem like morally questionable, it's often because they have at a base sort of axiomatic level a zero sum mindset. And they without realizing it, they don't realize they have a zero sum mindset or at least they don't realize it consciously. And so, if you have a zero sum mindset, then the only way to get ahead is by taking things from others.
如果你看到某些人，也许包括一些很聪明的人，采取一种看起来道德上不正确的做事态度，那通常是因为他们在基本的公理层面上有一个零和思维模式。他们没有意识到这一点，或者至少没有意识到这一点是有意识的。因此，如果你有一个零和思维模式，那么唯一的提升方式就是从别人那里获取东西。
If the pie is fixed, then the only way to have more pie is to take someone else's pie. But this is false. Like obviously the pie has grown dramatically over time, the economic pie. So, the reality you can have overuse this analogy, you can have a lot of pie. My pie is not fixed. So, you really want to make sure you're not operating without realizing it from a zero sum mindset where the only way to get ahead is to take things from others.
如果派已固定，那么唯一获得更多派的方法是拿走别人的派。但这是错误的。很明显，随着时间的推移，经济派已经大大增长。所以实际上你可以有很多派。我的派并没有固定。因此，你真的要确保自己不是从零和思维中不自觉地运作，唯一的取得成功的方法是从别人那里拿走东西。
That's going to result in you trying to take things from others, which is not good. It's much better to work on adding to the economic pie. Creating more than you consume. So, that's a big deal. I think there's like a fair number of people in finance that do have a bit of a zero sum mindset. I mean, it's all walks of life.
那会让你试图从别人那里拿走东西，这不是好事情。更好的是努力增加经济蛋糕。创造多余的，而不是消费。所以这是重要的。我认为金融界有相当多的人有一种零和思维。我的意思是，各行各业都有。
I've seen that one of the reasons Rogan inspires me is he celebrates others a lot. There's not creating a constant competition. There's a scarcity of resources. What happens when you celebrate others, you promote others, the ideas of others, it actually grows that pie. The resources become less scarce. That applies in a lot of kinds of domains. It applies in academia where a lot of people see some funding for academic research as zero sum. It is not. If you celebrate each other, if you get everybody to be excited about AI, about physics above mathematics, I think there'll be more and more funding. I think everybody wins. That applies, I think, broadly.
我注意到罗根能够激励我，其中一个原因是他很喜欢赞美别人。这并不是在制造竞争，因为资源并不是那么稀缺。当你赞美别人时，你会促进他们、他们的想法，这实际上会扩大饼图。资源就变得不那么紧缺了。这适用于很多领域。在学术界中也是如此，很多人认为学术研究的资金是零和游戏，其实不是。如果你互相赞美，让大家对人工智能、物理和数学感到兴奋，我认为会有越来越多的资金。所有人都会受益。这种思路，我认为普遍适用。
Yeah, exactly. So, last question about love and meaning. What is the role of love in the human condition broadly and more specific to you? How has love, romantic love, or otherwise, made you a better person? A better human being? Better engineer?
是的，没错。所以关于爱和意义的问题，最后一个问题是什么？在人类状况中，爱所扮演的角色是什么？对于你来说，爱（包括浪漫的爱情和其他类型的爱）如何让你成为更好的人？成为一个更好的人类？成为一位更好的工程师？如果有必要的话，请修改它。
No, you're asking really complex questions. It's hard to give a... I mean, there were many books, poems, and songs written about what is love and what exactly, you know, what is love, figure, don't hurt me. That's one of the great ones, yes. You have earlier, quote, or Shakespeare, but that's really up there. Love is a many splinter thing.
不，你问的问题真是太复杂了。很难给出一个...我的意思是，有很多书籍、诗歌和歌曲写过关于什么是爱，以及到底是什么，你知道的，什么是爱，形象地说，不要伤害我。那是其中一个伟大的作品，是的。你之前引用过莎士比亚，但这个真的很重要。爱是一件多面领域的事情。
I mean, there's... because we've talked about so many inspiring things, like be useful in the world, sort of solve problems, alleviate suffering, but it seems like connection between humans as a source of joy, as a source of meaning. And that's what love is, friendship, love. I just wonder if you think about that kind of thing.
我是说，我们谈论了很多激励人心的事情，比如在世界上有用，解决问题，缓解苦难，但似乎人与人之间的联系也是快乐和意义的源泉，这就是爱，友谊，爱情的来源。我只是想知道你是否会考虑这样的事情。
When you talk about preserving the light of human consciousness, and us becoming a multiplicity, I'm a multi-planetary species. To me, at least, that means, if we're just alone and conscious and intelligent, it doesn't mean nearly as much as if we're with others. And there's some magic created when we're together. And I think the highest form of it is love, which I think broadly is much bigger than just sort of romantic, but also, yes, romantic love and family and those kinds of things.
当你谈到保持人类意识的光辉以及我们成为一个多元化的群体时，我认为我们是一个多星球物种。对我来说，这意味着，如果我们只是孤独、有意识和聪明，那么它并没有和其他人在一起时那么重要。当我们在一起时，会创造出一些魔力。我认为其中最高形式是爱，这种爱不仅仅是浪漫的，还包括家庭等各种形式。
Well, I mean, the reason I guess I care about us becoming a multi-planet species in a space-prank civilization is, foundationally, I love humanity. And so I wish to see it prosper and do great things and be happy.
好吧，我的意思是，我猜我关心我们成为一个多星球物种和太空帝国的原因，本质上是因为我爱人类。因此我希望看到它繁荣发展、做伟大的事情并且快乐。
And if I did not love humanity, I would not care about these things. So when you look at the whole of it, the human history, all the people has ever lived, all the people live now, it's pretty, we're okay. And the whole, we're pretty interesting bunch. And I've read a lot of history, including the darkest, worst parts of it. And despite all that, I think on balance, I still love humanity.
如果我不爱人类的话，我就不会在意这些事情。所以当你看整个人类历史，所有曾经生活过的人，现在生活的所有人，我们还算不错。我们整体上是一群相当有趣的人。我读了很多历史，包括最黑暗、最糟糕的部分。尽管如此，我认为总的来说，我仍然爱人类。
You joked about it with the 42. What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? Is there a non-Numeric representation? Yeah, really, I think what Doug Thadans was saying in Hitchhack's Guide to Galaxy is that the universe is the answer. And what we really need to figure out are what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe. Yeah. And that the question is the really the hard part. And if you can properly frame the question, then the answer will be speaking as easy.
你和42开玩笑过。你认为这一整个事情的意义是什么？有没有非数字化的表达方式？是的，我认为Doug Thadans在银河系漫游指南中所说的是宇宙就是答案。我们真正需要弄清楚的是关于宇宙这个答案提出什么问题。是的，问题才是真正的难点。如果你能妥善地构思问题，那么回答就轻而易举了。
So, so therefore, if you want to understand what questions to ask about the universe, you want to understand the meaning of life. We need to expand the scope and scale of consciousness so that we're better able to understand the nature of the universe and understand the meaning of life. And ultimately, the most important part will be to ask the right question. Yes. So, thereby elevating the role of the interviewer.
因此，如果你想了解关于宇宙的问题应该问什么，你就需要了解生命的意义。我们需要扩大意识的范围和规模，以便更好地理解宇宙的本质，理解生命的意义。而最重要的部分将是提出正确的问题。是的，因此，提高采访者的角色也变得极为重要。
Yes, just like the most important human in the room. Good questions are, you know, it's hard to come up with good questions. Absolutely. But yeah, like it's like that is the foundation of my philosophy is that I am curious about the nature of the universe.
是的，就像房间里最重要的人一样。你知道，提出好问题很难。确实如此。但是，我的哲学基础就是我对宇宙本质充满好奇。
And obviously I will die. I don't know when I'll die, but I would live forever. But I would like to know that we are on a path to understanding the nature of the universe and the meaning of life and what questions to ask about the answer that is the universe. And so if we expand the scope and scale of humanity and consciousness in general, which includes silicon consciousness, then. That, you know, that that that seems like a fundamentally good thing.
显然，我会死。我不知道我会何时死，但我希望永远活着。但我想知道我们正在探索宇宙的本质、生命的意义以及关于宇宙答案的问题。如果我们扩展人类和意识的范围和规模，包括硅意识在内，那就是一个根本上好的事情。 你懂的，这看起来像是一个基本上好的事情。
You know, like I said, I'm deeply grateful that you will spend your extremely valuable time with me today. And also that you are given millions of people hope in this difficult time, this divisive time. And this cynical time. So I hope you do continue doing what you're doing. Thank you so much for talking today. Oh, you're welcome. Thanks for your excellent questions.
你知道的，就像我刚刚所说的，你今天愿意花费宝贵的时间陪伴我，我深感感激。同时，你在这个困难、分裂和愤世嫉俗的时代，给了数百万人希望。我希望你能继续做你正在做的事情。非常感谢你今天的交谈。哦，不用谢。感谢你的优秀问题。
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Elon Musk. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description. And now let me leave you with some words from Elon Musk himself. When something is important enough, you do it, even if the odds are not in your favor. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
感谢您聆听埃隆·马斯克的这次谈话。为了支持这个广播节目，请在描述中查看我们的赞助商。现在，让我用埃隆·马斯克的话来结束这次谈话。当某件事情足够重要时，即使成功的可能性不大，你也要去做。谢谢你的倾听，希望下次再见。