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Tesla Q2 Starts Strong in China, Cybertruck Contract, Price Changes

发布时间 2023-05-06 00:53:00    来源
Hey everybody, Rob now we're here. Happy Friday. Today we are going to be talking about China sales figures in Tesla sales figures in China. We've got a couple new numbers there to go through. We've also got an update on a cyber truck supplier contract and some news on pricing changes as well.
大家好,我是罗布,今天是周五。今天我们要谈论一下中国的特斯拉销售及其销售数据。我们有几个新数字要看一下。此外,我们还会更新一份供应商合同,以及一些关于价格变化的消息。

All right, looking at the stock, nice way to end the week, Tesla up 5.5% to close at $170.60. I think we're now safely above, not safely, but temporarily at least above the level after the Q&A report. So nice to see that obviously aided by the strong macro environment today with the NASDAQ up to 1.25%.
好的,看看股票情况,这是一个很好的周末结束方式,特斯拉上涨了5.5%,收盘价为170.60美元。我认为我们现在已经安全地超过了,至少是暂时超过了Q&A报告之后的水平。很高兴看到这一点,今天的强劲宏观环境显然对此有所帮助,纳斯达克指数上涨了1.25%。

There wasn't SEC filing from Tesla popped up on their investor relations website. This was a Form 144 from Zach Kirkhorn. So Form 144, it's a little bit different than the Form 4 is that we normally see issued. This is when an employee has intent to sell a restricted share of stock. So I'm not really sure exactly what the restrictions on these stocks would be, but for Kirkhorn here, it's only about 3,700 shares. So I don't think it's anything too major to look at in terms of the total amount here, nothing too significant. So again, not sure on the restrictions, but that is what this Form 144 is about.
特斯拉的投资者关系网站上没有出现SEC文件。这是Zach Kirkhorn提交的144表格。与通常看到的4表格不同,这意味着员工有意出售限制股票。我不确定这些股票的限制是什么,但对于Kirkhorn而言,只有大约3700股。因此,就总数而言,这并不是什么重要的事情。所以,我对限制不确定,但这就是这个144表格的含义。

All right, quick look at the calendar for next week. Of course, we'll have a couple of big reports with the Consumer Price Index CPI and the Producer Price Index PPI report. So those will be on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. That'll be our first look at the inflation data for April. So it'll be interesting to see that obviously following the FOMC meeting last week. And then a couple, or I guess this week, and then a couple of interesting things here to keep an eye on for in terms of earnings. We will have Lucid's earnings on Monday.
好的,快速查看下一周的日历。当然,我们将会有几份重要的报告,包括消费者价格指数CPI和生产者价格指数PPI报告。分别在星期三和星期四发布。那将是我们对四月份通货膨胀数据的第一次了解。因此,显然在上周的FOMC会议之后看到这些数据将会很有趣。此外,还有两个值得关注的事项是公司收益。我们将在周一看到Lucid的收益报告。

Sorry if you hear a little background noise here. Lucid earnings on Monday and then the Rivian earnings on Tuesday. So a lot of interesting things to see PPI on for next week. Are getting into the China sales numbers?
很抱歉这里有一些背景噪声。星期一会有Lucid的盈利报告,星期二又会有Rivian的盈利报告。下个星期有很多有趣的事情需要留意。我们会得到中国销售数据吗?

So we did end up getting a report for the insured vehicle numbers for the week of April 24th through April 30th. As we've talked about before, it's been a little bit inconsistent in terms of these reports. But we are now seeing this trick a lot a little bit later than we normally see it. So we'll take a look at that first. So 11,500 for that week, which again, a slight increase week over week, we can see now for the first four weeks of April. So basically the first month of the quarter here in Q2, Tesla is at about 41,000 vehicles insured in China or roughly equivalent to domestic sales.
我们最终获得了4月24日至4月30日一周的被保险车辆数量报告。就像我们之前谈到的那样,这些报告的数据有些不稳定。但现在我们注意到这些数据比我们通常看到的晚了一点。因此,我们将首先研究这一点。这周共有11,500辆车,比上周略有增加。现在我们可以看到,今年4月的前四周(即第二季度的第一个月)特斯拉在中国的被保险车辆数量约为41,000辆,大致相当于国内的销量。

There is a slight difference there in terms of how those numbers come in. But if we look at how that compares to the first quarter, we can see that the January numbers are actually quite a bit lower in total. Probably somewhere around like 25,000 there in the first quarter. So really nice start to the second quarter here. Of course, when we compare back to the first quarter, we have to keep in mind that there was Chinese new year affecting those numbers. So not the best comparison.
那里的数字的来源略有不同。但是,如果我们将其与第一季度进行比较,我们可以看到一月的总数实际上要低得多。第一季度大约得到了25,000个数字。因此,第二季度的开局非常好。当然,当我们回顾第一季度时,必须记住中国新年的影响。因此,这不是最佳的比较方式。

And then prior quarters to that, of course, there was less of the unwinding of the delivery wave. But still, it looks like a pretty strong start here for China for for April. Hopefully we see that continue. And then kind of caring that theme forward, we did also get the report for wholesale sales, which we see at about 76,000 vehicles for April. So previously we've seen those spike up as high as 100,000. It really depends on what the inventory versus production situation is.
然后,在此之前的季度中,当然减少了交付浪潮的减速。但仍然看起来,四月对中国来说是一个相当强劲的开局。希望我们能够持续看到这种趋势。然后再延续这一主题,我们也得到了四月批发销售的报告,销售量约为76,000辆车。之前我们曾经见证这些销售量达到了高达100,000辆车。这基本上取决于库存与生产情况之间的平衡。

So if we're going to take a look at that in this table here, the 76,000 is now entered. You can see that that was declining from March at about 89,000. But usually we see inventory swings of these days, 10,000, 15,000 vehicles even for Tesla. And obviously right now, you know, there's a little bit more focus on demand, but production is still a big driver of what Tesla is able to do on this, especially in this first cut first month of the quarter, where we do still see heavy exports even with a little bit more of that unwinding of the wave. So we should get those production numbers here pretty soon.
那么,如果我们在这张表格中看一下,76,000已经被输入了。可以看到,从三月开始,这个数字一直在下降,大约从89,000开始。但通常我们会看到这些天内库存的波动,即使是特斯拉也可能有10,000、15,000辆车。显然现在对需求有更多关注,但生产仍然是特斯拉在这方面能够做到的重要驱动力之一,特别是在这个季度的第一个月,我们仍然会看到大量出口,即使这个浪潮有点减退。所以我们很快就会得到这些生产数据的数字。

Usually those come within a week of these wholesale sales figures, but also get the breakdown between Model 3 and Model Y. But for now, I do want to focus a little bit more on those retail sales. As I said, the insured vehicle number, that's going to differ a little bit. If we look at these weeks, you can see that this does not include April 1st, April 2nd, or April 31st.
通常在批发销售数字公布的一周内,我们会看到Model 3和Model Y的详细数据。但目前,我更想着眼于零售销售。正如我所说,保险车辆数量可能会有所不同。如果我们看这几周的数据,可以看出这不包括4月1日、4月2日或4月31日。

So in addition to these 41,000 insured vehicles, there's three other days there that aren't captured. So hopefully that adds around 3,000 vehicles or so to the number that we end up seeing ultimately for retail sales for April, which we can see is the strongest first month of any quarter historically.
除了这41,000辆已保险车辆之外,还有三天的销售数据没有被统计。我们希望这些数据能够增加大约3,000辆车的销售量。4月份的零售销售是历史上任何一个季度的第一个月份中表现最强的。

Again, you have to compare that with last quarter with Chinese New Year. So what I think is more interesting to look at rather than just that single month comparison is to look at more of a rolling total. We'll look at that on like a rolling two month and rolling three month basis. So I'll add those columns here. Make sure you guys can see those.
再次强调,你需要将其与上一季度和春节做比较。所以我认为更有趣的是看一个更为连续的总数,而不仅仅是一个月的比较。我们将从连续两个月和连续三个月的角度来看这一点。所以我会在这里添加这些列,请确保你们能看到。

So on the left, I've got the trailing two month period and on the right, I've got the trailing three month period. And you can see I've highlighted the previous highs before this last month of sales data. So previously, 112,000 was the highest two month period that Tesla had done in for domestic sales in China.
在左边,我展示了过去两个月的销售情况,在右边是过去三个月的。你可以看到我已经突出显示了最近月份销售数据之前的历史销售峰值。以前,特斯拉在中国国内销售的最高两个月销售额为112,000。

If this number comes in around 44,000, which the insurance number is kind of extrapolating towards should be in that ballpark, we should be at 120,000 then for the last two months in terms of China sales, which would be the best two month period for Tesla sales in China in their history. So I think that's exciting.
如果这个数字大约是44000,也就是保险编号所推测的数值,那么我们在过去两个月在中国的销售额应该会达到120000,在特斯拉在华销售历史上是最好的两个月。所以我认为这非常令人兴奋。

The three month period is 154,000 roughly. That's actually just slightly below their previous record, which happened in Q4 last year of 157,000 coming off of a couple of really strong numbers there to end the third quarter. And then in the middle of the fourth quarter before tapered off a little bit to end the fourth quarter.
这个三个月的期间大约是154,000。实际上,这只是略低于他们上一个纪录,即去年第四季度的157,000,当时前几个数字非常强劲,以结束第三季度。然后在第四季度中期略有减退,以结束第四季度。

So you get a little bit of a peak there. As you can see, pretty consistently around 120,000 kind of excluding that bump. But here we've seen this build for the last three months. And hopefully, if you look at these two numbers, obviously, the math there implies that you would only need 34,000 or so next month, or I guess 37,000 next month for Tesla to then move into a trailing three month record position.
这里可以看到,除了这个峰值以外,大部分时间Tesla每月卖出约120,000辆车。最近三个月,我们看到了销量的增长,如果按照这样的趋势,Tesla下一个月只需要卖出大约34,000辆车,即可超过过去三个月的最高销量纪录。

So I think we should see that if you look at how the quarter generally builds second month, usually is going to be a higher domestic sales number for China. So if you're coming out 44,000 and that increases, we should see this trailing three month increase to a sizeable record, even over this little bit of an outlier of a number from Q4 last year.
我认为我们应该看到,一般来看第二个月,这个季度通常会在中国国内市场上看到销售额的增加。如果你们的销售额已经增长到了44,000,那么我们应该看到过去三个月的销售额会大幅增加,甚至超过去年第四季度的这个离群值。

So point being, if we kind of try to flatten things out, look at a little bit bigger time period, even with some of the bumpiness from exports and things like that. This is looking like a really strong period for Tesla and China despite incentives going away, despite the pricing pressure and just pressure on the automotive industry in general.
意思是,如果我们尝试平衡一下,看一下更长的时间周期,即使考虑到出口等因素的波动,这对于特斯拉和中国来说都是一个非常强劲的时期。尽管激励措施消失、定价压力以及汽车行业总体上的压力,这都是如此。

So I think we should feel good about this start, obviously, as we talked about with Europe yesterday, it is just the first month of the quarter, long ways to go, still in Q2 to see how this unfolds for the entire quarter. But happy to see these numbers to put us in a position where it can be a very successful quarter, as long as the demand continues to materialize. So happy to see that.
我认为我们应该对这个开局感到满意。显然,就像昨天我们所谈论的欧洲市场一样,这只是本季度的第一个月,在整个季度还有很长的路要走。但是,很高兴看到这些数字让我们处于一个成功的季度的位置,只要需求继续增长。所以很高兴看到这个消息。

Another change that we've got in the China design studio here is on the Model S and Model X pricing. They both both increased by about 19,000 RMB, which is the equivalent of about 2700 US dollars. And I'm covering it there, but they've also added the three three year supercharging benefits like we saw them do in the United States. So pretty much the exact same change that we saw them make in the US to the S and the X. And it sounds like this has also been applied in Europe as well with roughly 3000 euro price increases, you know, every country is a little bit different there, but it sounds like that is pretty widespread in Europe as well. So basically just carrying those changes that we saw in the US internationally, which is interesting, given, you know, the lower sales numbers that we had in Q1 on the S and the X, hopefully a lot of that logistics related. Now that we see these small price increases.
在中国设计工作室有一个新变化,就是Model S和Model X的定价。它们的价格都增加了大约19,000元人民币,相当于约2700美元。虽然我只是在报告这个数值,但他们也增加了三年免费超级充电的优惠,就像我们在美国看到的一样。因此,这个变化与我们在美国看到的S和X车型的变化几乎完全相同。似乎这个变化也在欧洲得到了应用,涨价大约3000欧元,每个国家有些许不同,但似乎在欧洲普及已广泛。所以基本上将我们在美国看到的变化在国际上推广,这很有趣,考虑到我们在S和X车型上一季度的销售量较低,希望这其中许多是由于物流问题。现在我们看到了这些小幅度的价格提高。

All right, and the next we've got a report from a Korean media outlet here that there is a supplier that has inked contract with Tesla for the A, B and C pillar parts for the cyber truck. Unfortunately, we don't get a ton of information on here that would give us, you know, more of a sense of what's going on with the cyber truck, but they did tell us that the order is about 300 billion one, which is roughly equivalent to around 230 million dollars. Or I guess they say it's expected to be around that and potentially exceed that over time. They say that this contract is for three years of these parts of life. Unfortunately, I don't know how much those parts would cost for an individual vehicle.
好的,接下来我们有一份来自韩国媒体的报告,报道称有一家供应商与特斯拉签订了合同,为赛博卡车提供A、B和C柱部件。不幸的是,我们没有得到太多有关赛博卡车的信息,以便更好地了解情况,但他们告诉我们这份订单约为300亿韩元,大约相当于230万美元。或者他们说预计在未来可能超过这个数额。他们表示这份合同是为期三年的这些零部件。不幸的是,我不知道这些零部件对于单个车辆会有多少成本。

So if we knew that, we could maybe extrapolate that to get a plan production volume. If anyone has any insight on that, I would definitely welcome it, but I think that would be a hard number to work into. And then I did also notice that this report, even though it says three years here, it does say the parts contract period is until 2028. So even on the timeline, it seems to be a little bit inconsistent at least in this translated article. And then finally, on this, they do say that they have rented or probably least factory space in Monterey, Mexico for this.
如果我们知道了这一点,可能可以推算出一个生产计划的数量。如果有人对此有任何见解,我肯定会欢迎,但我认为这将是一个很难确定的数字。此外,我也注意到这份报告,尽管在这里写着三年,但它确实表明配件合同期限长达2028年。因此,即使在时间线上,这篇翻译文章至少似乎有点不一致。最后,在这个问题上,他们说他们已经租用或可能 least Monterey,墨西哥的工厂空间。

So obviously that would be close to gigamexico, but with cyber truck production happening in gigatexas, probably importing those parts over to gigatexas.
显然,这将接近于“吉加墨西哥”,但由于赛博卡车在“吉加德克萨斯”生产,可能需要将这些零件进口到“吉加德克萨斯”。

All right. And last couple of things for today, kind of interesting thing that is unfolded on Twitter a little bit today. First, Aaron B Airbnb had solicited people on Twitter to ask what they could improve about Airbnb. They came away with a list of top suggestions here.
好的,今天最后几件事情,有一件有趣的事情在Twitter上发生了一些。首先,Aaron B Airbnb在Twitter上询问人们如何改进Airbnb。他们获得了以下一些最受欢迎的建议列表。

Elon said this kind of interaction with users is awesome. Other companies should take note, Tesla account, whether that's Elon driven or just proactive took the hints. And now we're after that tweeting what should Tesla improve. Let us know in the comments below. So if you want to give some feedback, now's your opportunity to do that.
伊隆表示,与用户们这样互动是非常棒的。其他公司应该注意,特斯拉账户,无论是由伊隆推动还是主动的,都听取了提示。现在我们在推特上发布了Tesla应该改善的内容。请在下方评论区告诉我们。所以如果你想提供一些反馈意见,现在是你这样做的机会。

I'm sure people have a lot of that. I would say it's probably more focused on like what can the company improve itself to be a better product that are service things like that, rather than what investors think should be improved. Again, this is probably more product facing type of interaction. So just keep that in mind with some of the feedback, although obviously, you know, feel free to share whatever.
我相信人们有很多想法。我认为重点可能更加关注于公司改进自身成为更好的产品或服务,而不是投资者认为需要改进的方面。再次强调,这可能更多是面向产品的互动。因此请记住这些反馈,尽管您当然可以自由分享任何内容。

And then lastly, kind of a nice way to wrap up the weekend here is a wrap up the week here. Tesla is teasing. Tesla Europe Twitter account that the wild that the midnight cherry model while we'll start appearing at a location near you starting tomorrow. So I'm really excited to see that. They did have one of those at investor day. I think it looks great. It's a little bit darker than at least it was, you know, looked a little bit darker at an overcast day at investor day than some of the promotional images, but it'll be exciting to see these finally start to get and customers hands and joining the quick silver as that new color.
最后,一个不错的方式来结束周末,是在这里总结一下本周。特斯拉(Tesla)正在引起关注。特斯拉欧洲推特帐户在预告,午夜樱桃炫动款车型将从明天开始在您附近的某个地方出现。所以我真的很兴奋看到这个。他们在投资者日拥有其中一辆车型。我认为它看起来很棒。它比一些宣传画面要暗一些,在投资者日阴天时看起来比之前暗一些,但是看到这些车型最终开始投入客户手中加入快银作为新颜色将是令人兴奋的事情。

All right, that'll wrap it up for today. And for the week then, as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications and also find me on Twitter at Tesla podcast. And we'll see you on Monday for the May 8th episode of Tesla Daily. Thank you.
好的,今天的节目就到这里结束了。这周也结束了,一如既往,谢谢大家的收听。请确保订阅并注册通知,同时在 Twitter 上找到我的 Tesla 播客。我们将在周一的 Tesla Daily 中见到你。谢谢。



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