What's brewing with vehicle repossessions (EP1)

What's up everybody? Welcome to the first episode the new podcast by me Cardiola Shabguy of course. I am your host cardiola Shabguy Super excited for this. This is the first time I'm venturing into the audio space up until now I have been very heavy on Twitter as you all know I have done a couple in prompt to Twitter spaces which have been very fun But this is a new challenge for me. I'm really excited about it looking forward to it Please share your feedback. Let me know what else you want to see Let me know what topics you want me to dive into and excited to see how this evolves

大家好，欢迎收听我的第一集新播客！我是 Cardiola Shabguy，当然也是你们的主持人。我非常兴奋，这是我第一次进入音频领域，之前我在 Twitter 上非常活跃，也曾经做过一些即兴 Twitter spaces 直播，很有趣。但是这对我来说是一个新的挑战，我非常期待。请分享你的反馈意见，让我知道你想看到什么内容，让我知道你想深入了解哪些话题，我很期待看到它的发展。

So without further ado I'm gonna jump into the first topic for the podcast here and I want to touch on an update on the state of repossessions So last night I tweeted about a new phenomenon that we're seeing in store. I specifically I spoke about how lately we're seeing an uptick and customers that are coming in with recent repossessions under credit history Now you may say well, you know customers with repossessions under credit history is nothing new Right that always happens. That's always been the case This is the car business at the end of the day and there's always going to be a cohort of customers that fall behind under payments and eventually have their car repossessed and While you're correct that isn't anything new one thing we notice is that This recent cohort that's coming into buy cars all have recent repossessions and we just found that very interesting

那么，话不多说，我要进入这个播客的第一个主题，并想谈一下重拖车状态的更新。昨晚我发了一条推文，谈到了我们在商店中看到的一个新现象。 我特别提到最近我们看到很多客户在信用记录下面有了刚刚被拖车的记录。你可能会说，客户在信用记录下面有拖车经历并不新鲜，这种情况总是会发生。这毕竟是汽车交易，总会有一些客户无法按时还款，最终车辆被收回。虽然你这么说没错，但我们注意到一个问题，那就是最近这些来买车的客户几乎都刚刚被拖车，我们觉得这非常有趣。

And so when we dug in we started asking some questions right as a as a dealer It's it's something that you know when you're working with a customer you want to learn about them You want to understand your situation And that helps you that arms you with information so you can help them most right you truly understand How to solve their problem Well when we dug in with the customers and we started trying to figure out what happened here We notice a common theme across the board right and the theme we noticed is that the overwhelming majority of the customers that are in the situation are customers that all purchased older cars over the last couple of years and And all of these older cars had issues that these customers could not afford to repair right and

因此，当我们深入了解情况时，我们开始当着交易员的面问一些问题。当你在为客户工作时，你想了解他们，了解他们的情况。这可以让你掌握信息，以便最大程度地帮助他们，从而真正理解如何解决他们的问题。当我们深入了解客户并开始试图弄清楚发生了什么时，我们注意到了共同的主题。我们注意到，在这种情况下的绝大多数客户都在过去几年里购买了旧车，并且所有这些旧车都有问题，这些客户无法支付维修费用。

So as you know the last couple of years have been just super tough from an inventory perspective We've as a and I spoke about this many times but as a we've under produced over 8 million new cars right meaning We haven't produced enough new cars with those new cars haven't been purchased by consumers and because of that That's leading now to a situation where the used cars that are in dealer inventories continue dwindling right and so when you have a Situation like that as it's been for the last couple of years and it's only getting worse

众所周知，过去几年在库存方面非常困难。我们作为一个公司已经多次讨论过这个问题，但是我们已经少生产了超过8万辆新车，也就是说我们没有生产足够的新车，这些新车也没有被消费者购买。由于这个原因，目前使用中的汽车库存不断减少。当你面对这样的局面，就像过去几年一样，而且还变得越来越糟糕。

Well people that are looking for an affordable car Maybe they you know they can't afford that $25,000 $30,000 car whatever it may be they resort to a cheaper car and In many times that's a car that's older than what they would have otherwise purchased and so an older car Maybe a car that has higher miles maybe maybe the two the both of those you know Both of those circumstances on the vehicle and ultimately that puts the customer in a situation that is just not advantageous because Not only are you are you face a situation where you cannot afford a car that is maybe Maybe reasonable with reasonable miles or a bit newer right? There's a reason you're seeking a very affordable car But on top of that now you're faced with a situation where you're going for an older car with higher miles and

很多寻找经济实惠汽车的人可能买不起那些价值25000美元或30000美元的汽车，因此他们会选择更便宜的汽车。很多情况下，他们所选择的是较旧的汽车，这些汽车可能比他们本来想购买的车还要旧。这样的旧车可能里程数更高，两者情况兼备。这最终给顾客带来不利的情况，因为你不仅面临着购买不起那些里程数合理或者稍微新一点的车的限制，而且你还要购买一辆里程数较高的老旧车。

So this is very very it's a very alarming situation because now These customers that are already budget constrained have had no choice But to buy all these older cars that are just more susceptible to mechanical breakdowns and now unsurprisingly What we're seeing is that these older cars are resulting in a higher rate of repossessions and so when we spoke with our customers And we saw that this is the trend and this is what's happening It sort of made us realize something that we just had a really thought of which is that as the age as the average age of The car of a car in the road today gets older and you know these cars have higher miles We're going to see a higher rate of repossessions across the board That's going to that's going to be completely beyond previous baselines because when we were as a country when we were producing you know over it's we're producing and selling roughly 17 million cars more or less new cars in the US in an average year and when you have a deficit of 8.6 million new cars over three years since 2020 right that's going to impact the secondary market and

这是一个非常令人担忧的情况，因为那些本来就有预算限制的客户现在别无选择，只能购买那些更容易出现机械故障的旧车。因此，毫不意外的是，我们现在看到这些旧车导致的回收率更高。当我们与客户交流时，我们发现这正是当前的趋势和所发生的事情。这让我们意识到一些以前没有想到的问题，即随着道路上汽车的平均年龄越来越大，这些汽车里程也越来越高，我们将会看到所有回收率更高的趋势，这将完全超出以往的基线。因为我们作为一个国家曾经在平均一年内在美国生产和销售大约1700万辆全新的汽车，而自2020年以来的三年里，我们出现了860万辆新汽车的赤字，这将对二手市场造成影响。

As I mentioned in my tweet the secondary market to use market today Dealer inventories have about 25% fewer cars today than we did in 2019 Right we have 2.2 million cars on average in in dealer inventories today versus 2.9 million in 2019 and all that is what all that's causing is Leading people especially people that are looking that are budget constrained and needs something affordable that cannot pay over You know 15,000 20,000 dollars. Well, that's leading them to go deeper into cars that are older and higher miles And so it's going to be very interesting to see how this all unfolds over the next couple of years and what did how this impacts Prior baselines and just risk metrics because the way lenders work is you know They have risk metrics. They have a prior prior baseline They have prior data that they go off when they underwrite a consumer But what happens when the average is in the industry completely change and the prior underwriting guidelines are no longer the same guidelines that we're working with today Well, it's going to be a very interesting to see how this plays out because that's exactly what we're going through today

在我的推特中提到了今天的二手车市场，经销商库存的汽车数量比2019年少了约25%。目前我们的经销商库存中平均有220万辆车，而2019年为290万辆。这直接导致的结果是，许多人特别是有预算限制的人只能选择购买更老、行驶里程更高的车辆，而无法承担超过1.5万或2万美元的汽车价格。未来几年，这将是一个非常有趣的观察，以了解这些情况对风险指标和之前的评估基准有何影响。因为贷款人的工作方式是基于资料风险度、以前的基准和消费者的评估。但是当整个行业的平均数据发生改变时，之前的发布准则也将失去有效性，那么就要看这对整个行业的影响会如何。

And it's not just and this is it's not just with you know cars and average age But there's other things across the board that have been severely impacted and they're going to and they're beginning to be unwound And it's only going to get more interesting over the next couple of years, right? So another example is credit scores credit scores have artificially improved over the last couple of years and the reason for that is because people were flooded with stimulus money and and There were you know, these moratoriums in you know people didn't have to pay debt and student debt relief and and whatnot And that and these types of things artificially inflated credit scores as well

这不仅仅是关于汽车和平均年龄的问题，而是在各方面都受到了严重影响，并且正在开始逐步解决。未来几年里，这只会变得更加有趣，对吧？信用评分就是一个例子，信用评分在过去几年中人为地得到了提高，原因是人们被涌入的经济刺激资金所影响，并且有人免除债务和学生贷款等。由于这些因素，信用评分也受到了人为膨胀的影响。

And so all that said you know, we're not we're just now starting to take the medicine Um, the market is now just starting to get back to reality and I think it's going to be We're going to see some stats and outcomes That we didn't expect Most will likely be for the worst, but it's just going to be it's going to be we're going to see your outcomes that are just we couldn't have predicted Uh, from you know from a numbers perspective because we simply don't have these baselines to work with Historically and so time will tell how this all plays out

所以，我们还没开始真正开始用药物治疗，市场现在才开始回归现实，我认为我们将会看到一些我们没有预料到的结果。大多数可能会更糟，但我们将会看到一些出人意料的结果，这些结果我们无法从数字的角度预测，因为我们没有历史数据作为基准参考。时间会告诉我们这一切会如何发展。

But I am I'm keeping a very close eye on it and I'm committed to continuing delivering the most up to date information. Do you as we see it happening on the ground floor? And so I'll keep you in the loop.

但我会非常密切地关注它，并致力于继续提供最新的信息。在您看来，您能看到它在基层发生了什么吗？所以我会保持联系并让您知情。 （注：“看到它在基层发生了什么”可能是指某种具体状况、趋势或现象，具体指什么需根据上下文推断。）

One other thing I do want to share very interesting is that as I tweeted this there was a gentleman named Brian Beers on the tweet that mentioned something very interesting. Which sort of aligned with his trend and his gentleman has 30 repair shops. Um, you know, I think he I'm not sure if he owns them or operates them. But the point is he up he's involved with 30 repair shops across the country and across the US and he mentioned that very interesting stat that they're seeing that over 20 that they're they're carcow rights with the amount of cars coming into do service work is actually flat year over year. But the sale price or you know the average order value say is up 20%.

我还想分享一个非常有趣的事情，就是当我发推文的时候，有一个名叫Brian Beers的绅士在推文中提到了一些非常有趣的事情。这与他的趋势相一致，这位绅士拥有30家维修店。嗯，你知道的，我不确定他是否拥有或经营它们。但是重点是他参与了全国和美国的30家维修店，并提到了一个非常有趣的统计数字，即他们发现随着进入服务工作的汽车数量保持不变，但售价或平均订单价值增长了20%。

And so his his thesis here and what he mentioned is that expensive repairs are becoming more common right, and this all adds up because as you sell older cars as cars have higher miles and of course as you know inflation has also impacted the parts industry. We can't we can't neglect that all these three things together are just leading to a more it leading it to costing more to repair a vehicle. And so again very interesting uh, very interesting development here will keep you in the loop.

因此，他在这里提出的论点是，汽车昂贵维修的情况越来越普遍，这是因为随着二手车的销售增加，车辆行驶里程增加，当然，通货膨胀也影响了零部件行业。我们不能忽略这三个因素共同导致汽车维修成本增加。因此，这是一个非常有趣的发展，我们会让您了解最新情况。

But with that without further ado, I'm going to wrap it up for today again short and sweet quick episode of car talk. Don't have a schedule for this just yet. I'm not even sure how this is going to evolve and if I'll bring on guest if it's going to be just myself myself on the co-host I don't really know. Uh, but I'm just going to have fun with it and continue talking about what's interesting to me and what I think is interesting about the industry.

但是话不多说，今天的汽车谈话就到这里了，简短而快速。目前还没有这个节目的时间表，我也不确定它会怎么发展，会不会找嘉宾来，或者只是和我自己聊天。但是我会享受其中，继续讨论我感兴趣的话题，以及我认为行业中有趣的事情。

So leave feedback subscribe to this channel on YouTube at guide dealership on apple podcasts and Spotify. Let me know what else you want to hear and excited to bring you more information to come over the next couple of weeks talk soon. Bye.

请在YouTube的“指南经销商”频道上留下反馈并订阅，在Apple Podcasts和Spotify上收听。让我知道你想听什么，我很兴奋地带给你更多信息在未来的几周中。很快再聊，再见。