Tesla Finally Adds Long Range Model 3, Fed Raises Rates, Boring Company Expansion
发布时间 2023-05-04 00:57:51 来源
Hey everybody, we're out of our hour here and today we are talking about Tesla finally reintroducing the long range all wheel drive Model 3 to the design studio in the United States. We'll also talk about the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference, got some news on the boring company and a few other items as well.
大家好，今天我们要谈谈特斯拉在美国设计工作室终于重新推出长续航全轮驱动Model 3的事情。我们还将讨论美联储的利率决定和新闻发布会，还有一些有关无聊公司和其他项目的消息。
So starting off with the stock Tesla today after a pretty strong midday, closing up just two tenths of a percent, $260.61 as the stock did trail off a bit alongside the broader markets into close, the NASDAQ finishing down half a percent on the day to day.
今天开始看特斯拉（Tesla）股票，午间股价表现不错，收涨两成，报260.61美元。随着整体市场的走低，股票在收盘前略有下滑，纳斯达克指数全天下跌半个百分点。
So we'll start off with the Fed's interest rate decision. Of course they did raise interest rates by 25 basis points, now putting the target rate at 5 to 5.25%. And the most interesting part of the statement today was a change in language many of you may have seen that I tweeted about this, but the committee has removed some language about anticipating additional policy firming.
我们首先来谈谈联邦储备委员会的利率决定。当然，他们将基准利率上调了25个基点，现在将目标利率定在5％到5.25％之间。今天声明中最有趣的部分是一种语言变化，你们中的许多人可能已经在我发的推文中看到了，但委员会已经删除了有关预计进一步政策硬化的某些语言。
So if we look at the statement from March, you can see highlighted here as a difference, the committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to maintain a stance of monetary policy that is or to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive. So that same statement has now been changed to in determining the extent of which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% rate over time, etc.
因此，如果我们看一下三月份的声明，你可以看到这里标注的差异，委员会预计可能需要一些额外的政策加强，以维持或达到足够严格的货币政策立场。现在同样的声明已经改为在确定额外的政策加强程度时，可能需要将通胀率在一定时间内恢复到2％等。
So same language after that, but taking out that anticipates language, which later on in the FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Powell did say that he did kind of highlight that and said that a decision on a pause was not made today. That sentence was taken out. He said that's a meaningful change that we're no longer saying that we anticipate and we'll approach that question at the June meeting.
在此之后，语言仍然相同，但是去掉了预测未来的语言。而在FOMC新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，他强调了这一点，并表示暂停决定今天并未做出。他说这是一个有意义的变化，我们不再说我们预期会在六月会议上讨论这个问题了。
So I think this roughly in line with expectations, the market didn't have major reactions to leading up until that point. Throughout the press conference, he did mention a few other things, a lot of stuff that we've heard him talk about before. He said conditions in the banking sector have improved since mid-March. Obviously, there's still some things going on there that we've talked about yesterday that continuing into today.
所以我认为这基本符合预期，市场在此之前并未出现重大反应。在新闻发布会期间，他提到了一些其他事情，大多数是我们之前听过他谈论的内容。他表示自三月中旬以来，银行业的情况有所改善。显然，在这方面仍然存在一些我们昨天和今天继续讨论的问题。
But his view is that conditions have significantly improved said that the process of getting inflation down still has a long way to go despite this change in language and that quote we are prepared to do more if greater monetary policy restraint is warranted. So kind of going through all of those comments and then leading into the end of the conference, he was asked about the market's expectation for rate cuts later on this year.
他的观点是，虽然语言有所改变，但控制通胀的进程仍然有很长的路要走。尽管如此，他表示状况已经得到了显著改善，并且如果需要更加紧缩的货币政策，我们也准备采取更多措施。在这些评论的基础上，会议结束前，他被问及市场对今年后期降息的预期。
And he said that based on their forecast, if their forecasts are correct, they are not going to cut rates this year. The market seems to have dropped based on those comments, which I don't know. It doesn't really make a lot of sense to me because this is not a new statement from FedChairdron Powell.
他说，根据他们的预测，如果他们的预测是正确的，他们不打算在今年降息。市场似乎下跌了，我不知道是因为这些评论，但这对我来说并不是一个新的联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔的声明，所以这并没有太多意义。
It's really just a reiteration of if their forecast come in as they expect, which they've laid out in the summary of economic projections back in March. Then obviously they're not going to be cutting rates because they don't expect to be in a position to need to do that. But the underlying, you know, the hidden statement that's not being said directly there is that if things are not in alignment with their forecast, then obviously that strategy may change.
这实际上只是重申了他们在三月份的经济预测摘要中所想象的预测结果。如果经济状况如预期发展，那么他们显然不会降息，因为他们并不认为有这种必要。但实际上，没有直接表明的隐含观点是，如果事情与他们的预测不符，那么显然这个策略可能会改变。
And they're just going to continue to reevaluate that meeting by meeting by meeting as they have consistently said throughout this whole process. So I think the expectations going forward will be for probably a pause based on this language removal. But of course, again, that will depend on the data that we get between now and the June meeting.
他们将继续评估会议，一次又一次，正如在整个过程中一直坚定地表述的那样。因此，我认为未来的预期可能是基于这种语言撤销的暂停。但当然，这将取决于我们在现在和六月会议之间获得的数据。
All right. So moving on from the Fed, the big news today is the is the reintroduction of Tesla's long range all-wheel drive model three into the design studio in the United States. I believe this has been missing from the design studio for roughly eight months now. Almost three quarters, the new version here reintroduced at $47,240. So kind of in alignment with the other strange pricing after that $250 price bump that we had earlier this week.
好的，所以不谈联邦储备委员会了，今天最重要的新闻是特斯拉公司重新推出长续航全轮驱动版Model 3车型进入美国的设计工作室。据我了解，这款车型在设计工作室中已经缺席了大约八个月。这个新版本的价格为47,240美元，几乎达到了这周早些时候250美元涨价后的奇怪定价的水平。
But the most interesting part of this is the slight change in specs. So the previous configuration I'll show just from the way back machine here, those specs. So the long range dual motor before 4.2 seconds, zero to 60 144 145 mile per hour top speed.
但最有趣的部分是规格有了轻微的变化。我将展示之前的配置，这些规格可以从这里的“时光机”中看到。长续航双马达之前是4.2秒，零到60英里每小时，最高速度为144至145英里每小时。
Those are still the same on this version as we can see there. But the range has declined a little bit. 358 miles was the EPA estimate for the old version, long range model three. That is now dropped to 325 plus. Tesla says this is an estimate versus the other configurations, the rear wheel drive and the performance, both say EPA estimate.
我们从这个版本中可以看到，这些仍然与以前一样。但是它的续航能力有所下降。对于旧版本的长续航模型三，EPA估计为358英里，现在降低至325英里。特斯拉表示这是相对于其他配置的估计值，后轮驱动和性能型都有EPA估价。
So it looks like Tesla is just waiting for EPA testing or for them to do the EPA testing to confirm what that EPA rating would be. Obviously they expected north of 325 miles. However that is a decent drop, probably about an 8% decline in the estimated range there from the old configuration.
看起来特斯拉只是等待环保署的测试，或者让他们进行环保署测试以确认EPA评级。显然，他们预计的续航里程将超过325英里。然而，这是一个不错的下降，可能是旧配置预估里程的约8％下降。
So the other really interesting thing here that is also tied to that is that Tesla says that this new version is only going to be eligible for the $3750 credit versus the full $7500 credit for the performance. So obviously that means that there is a difference in the battery somewhere in there. And it is the same credits as earned on the lithium iron phosphate pack rear wheel drive vehicle.
因此，另一个非常有趣的事情也与此相关，那就是特斯拉表示，这个新版本只有资格获得3750美元的税收抵免，而不是7500美元的完整税收抵免，这显然意味着电池中存在一些差异。并且它与磷酸铁锂电池驱动的后轮驱动车辆所获得的相同税收抵免。
So with the lower range with that credit only being half, it seems to suggest that perhaps this could be an LFP pack, maybe an LMFP pack with the lithium manganese pack that CATL has been working on. They've talked about that coming soon. We don't know exactly the timeline on that. But with the longer range here from the standard range version, that could also be a possibility. And then I think the final possibility is perhaps these are just other 2170 cells that Tesla is not getting from Panasonic at GignaVada, maybe from LG, like I think we have seen Tesla use in Europe.
因为使用该信用等级时的低范围仅为一半，所以似乎暗示可能这是一款LFP电池包，或是使用宁德时代开发的锰酸锂电池的LMFP电池包。他们曾经提到过这很快就会推出，但我们不知道确切的时间表。但在标准版中有更长的续航里程，这也有可能是一个选择。最后一个可能性是，这些可能只是特斯拉在吉纳瓦达未从松下获得的其他2170电池，可能是来自LG，就像我们在欧洲看到的一样。
So unfortunately as much digging as we've done on this, I don't think that we can make it conclusive statement on that so far. I was trying to look a little bit at the weight to see if anything had changed on that front. So looking at the way back machine, this is unfortunately the 353 mile range version of the long range model three for whatever reason the way back machine wasn't able to pull up the weight for the slightly later configuration that had 358 miles, assuming now that the weight is similar on those, we're looking at 4,065 pounds previously versus the current version, the reintroduced version at 4,034. So the weights are pretty similar again, you know, less than a 1% difference there in weight versus that lower range by about 8%.
很不幸，尽管我们已经做了很多调查，但我认为目前我们不能对此作出确定性的陈述。我试着看一下重量是否有所改变。通过查看历史机器，不幸的是这是长续航版3型车353英里续航版本，由于某种原因，历史机器无法提取稍晚配置的358英里续航版本的重量，现在假设这两个版本的重量相似。我们看到，在先前版本中，重量为4,065磅，而在当前重现版本中为4,034磅。所以重量非常相似，差别不到1％，而续航变低了约8％。
So if we look at the, you know, some other clues that may give us some idea of what may be different here, one thing to look at is the difference for the LFP packs on charging. So Tesla says that those top out at 170 kilowatts max, that is the same for the Model Y LFP pack in China, 170 kilowatts there. So with this new version, find the right cheat here, Tesla is saying that that does still have the 250 kilowatt max supercharging. So that could again suggest that maybe this is not lithium iron phosphate, maybe this is a different 2170 cell from Tesla because it has that higher capacity or that could just be a factor of still lithium iron phosphate, but a larger battery pack allowing for that higher rate of charge at peak, which obviously happens, you know, the empty or the battery is closer to zero than it is.
因此，如果我们看一下其他线索，可能会给我们一些关于这里可能有何不同的想法，其中一个要看的是LFP电池包在充电时的差异。特斯拉表示，这些电池包的最大输出功率为170千瓦，这也适用于中国的Model Y LFP电池包。因此，通过这个新版本，我们可以得出结论，特斯拉仍然声称其具有最大250千瓦的超级充电能力。这可能再次表明，这不是锂铁电池，而是特斯拉的另一个2170单元，因为它具有更高的容量，或者只是因为更大的电池包允许在高峰时更高的充电速率，显然是在电池接近零的情况下发生。
So interesting to see that, you know, some of those differences, unfortunately we won't know, but we will eventually know when these get delivered, Tesla is saying that these are estimated to be delivered in June. If we look at the owner's manual, once those are delivered, there will be a way for us to tell because Tesla does disclose what type of battery it is. Right here, you can see control software, additional vehicle information, it will say if the battery pack is lithium iron phosphate, because of course the charging difference there is that those can be charged to 100% even for daily use rather than just for long trips to help with battery degradation.
看到这些不同之处真是太有趣了，不幸的是我们现在还不知道其中的一些差别，但终将会知道，因为特斯拉声称这些车辆预计将在六月交付。一旦这些车辆交付，我们可以通过车主手册轻易地了解到这些不同之处，因为特斯拉会公开披露电池类型。在这里，你可以看到控制软件和更多车辆信息，将会显示电池组是否为磷酸铁锂电池。当然，其中的充电差异在于磷酸铁锂电池即使日常使用也可以充电至100%而不仅仅是为了长途旅行，以帮助延缓电池老化。
So once we actually see delivery should be easy for people to figure that out, which again, probably in June, which brings us to the final question of whether or not this would be potentially a highland update. I think Tesla releasing it to the design studio a little bit before it's actually being delivered could be just so they can build their, you know, order mix, their vehicle mix in terms of production ahead of time, but sometimes we see Tesla introduce things and then it's just immediately available. So perhaps they're waiting a little bit on that highland update. My best guess at this point in time would be probably not. I think that's still going to be a little bit later on, but you know, that's the other open question that we still have with this vehicle.
一旦我们实际看到交付，对于人们来说交付应该很容易弄清楚，这可能会在6月左右，这也带来了一个最终问题，即这是否有可能是高地升级。我认为，特斯拉在实际交付前向设计工作室发布可能仅是为了提前建立他们的订单组合、车辆组合，以便于生产，但有时我们看到特斯拉引入一些东西，然后它就立即可用。因此，也许他们在等待高地升级稍微再等一下。目前我最好的猜测可能是不会有高地升级。我认为这仍然会晚一些，但是，这是我们对于这辆车仍然存在的另一个开放的问题。
All right, so I think that covers everything with the introduction here. Maybe the other factor would be that hopefully this is an improvement for margins, especially if this is an LFP pack. If this is, you know, you're talking about $7,000 difference with definitely not that much difference in batteries versus the rear wheel drive version. So we'll see. I think the performance is still pretty compelling because of that full credit. If you are eligible for that, ending up with not a not too major of a difference in either the range or the price in that case on the performance.
好的，我认为这里的介绍已经覆盖了一切。另一个因素可能是，希望这对利润率有所改善，特别是如果这是一个LFP电池组。如果是这样的话，你会发现，相比于后驱版本，电池并没有太大的不同，但价格差距在7,000美元左右。我们会看到的。我认为由于全额减免的原因，性能仍然非常令人信服。如果你有资格获得这个减免，那么在性能方面，无论是续航里程还是价格，都不会有太大的差别。
All right. Next up, we've got a report from electric today. They are reporting that Tesla is building according to permits that they have filed what they're calling a lithium lab in Nevada. So not actually at the gigafactory, but in sparks in a separate building, they have filed this application that reads, quote, tenant improvement projects for the purpose of a manufacturing R&D quote lithium lab parentheses lithium lab facility. The scope of work includes mechanical electrical plumbing and minor architectural upgrades to support tool installation and process optimizations.
好的，接下来我们有来自电能今日的一份报告。他们报导称，特斯拉正在内华达州建造一座锂实验室，而且是根据他们已经提交的许可证建造的。这座实验室并不在超级工厂内，而是在斯帕克斯市的一栋独立建筑内。他们已经提交了一份申请书，申请中写道：“为了制造和研发目的，进行租户改善项目，建立一个锂实验 (锂实验室设施)”。工作范围包括机械、电气、水管和一些小型建筑升级，以支持工具的安装和工艺的优化。
So through the rest of the article, they don't, you know, electric doesn't have a better understanding of what exactly this means. So we're really just left with that lithium lab thing, but it looks like this would probably be an R&D facility for whether it's with lithium refining. Tesla has talked about possibly getting into some lithium mining things, especially in Nevada before. So you know, it'll be interesting if we if we hear any more about that as Tesla works on that project.
在文章的后面部分，他们并没有更好地理解这具体意味着什么。所以我们只剩下那个锂实验室的事情了，但看起来这可能是一个研发设施，无论是用于锂精炼还是其他方面。特斯拉曾经谈论过可能在内华达进行一些锂矿开采项目，所以如果特斯拉在此项目上有更多工作的话，我们听到了更多关于此的情况将会很有趣。
Also relating to Nevada, drive Tesla candidate reporting here on a LinkedIn post from a Tesla executive that they have shipped their last megapack out of gigafator. Obviously this now being here we can see the post. Obviously this now being transferred over to production at laythrupp and that being a lot higher volume facility. Tesla has decided to shift that over and gig in Nevada. As we've talked about before, going to be continuing to expand for things like semi production and battery production for 4680s as well.
关于内华达州，特斯拉候选人在领英上发表了一篇报道，报道称他们已经将最后一个超级电池组从千兆工厂运出。很显然，现在我们能够看到这篇报道。这些电池组现在将被转移到莱斯普和那里的产能将更高。特斯拉决定将其转移到内华达州的瓦力卡。正如我们之前所讨论的，我们将继续扩大半导体生产和 4680 电池的生产。
So not surprising to see that shift, but end of an error there for gig in Nevada on the megapack. Also on LinkedIn, you're posting an update that they have now developed a casting machine, not just for die casts for vehicle bodies, but also for electric motor rotors. So obviously casting is a bad in play for a lot of other areas of the vehicle for a long time, but looks like they are getting into a little bit new space with their casting machines here and there is something they're excited about. And obviously Tesla potentially could be putting that to use as well.
毫不奇怪地看到这种转变，但对于在内华达州的大型电池组上工作的人来说，这也标志着错误的结束。此外，在LinkedIn上发布更新，他们现在已经开发了铸造机，不仅适用于车身铸件，还适用于电动机转子。显然，铸造技术长期以来一直在许多车辆领域中发挥作用，但看起来他们正在涉足一些新的领域，并且这是他们感到兴奋的事情。显然，特斯拉也有可能将其投入使用。
The last couple of things here, first we've got an update on the UAW. They are not yet going to commit to endorsing it Biden for a second term in office, citing EV policies as one of the potential holdbacks for that endorsement. So according to you, UAW president who we've kind of talked about previously, some comments that he had made regarding the automakers, citing those concerns on EVs and saying quote, the federal government is pouring billions into the electric vehicle transition with no strings attached and no commitments to workers.
以下是最近的几点消息：首先，美国汽车工人联合会（UAW）尚未确定是否要支持拜登连任。他们认为电动汽车政策可能会成为不予支持的原因之一。我们曾经谈及过UAW主席所提出的一些有关汽车制造商的问题，他对电动汽车表示担忧，并称：“联邦政府在电动汽车转型上投入数十亿美元，但没有对工人做出任何承诺。”
The EV transition is at serious risk of becoming a race to the bottom. We want to see national leadership have our back on this before we make any commitments. So in terms of this endorsement, obviously it's probably something that will be pretty likely to happen at some point. I think the alternative candidate for them, you know, if it is sort of a two party thing would be on the Republican side and the UAW probably not going to go that direction. So this would probably be a little bit more posturing than anything, probably the earlier that Biden would get that endorsement, the better for him in terms of building that support in that base.
电动汽车转型正面临着成为竞争无底线的严重风险。在我们做出任何承诺之前，我们希望看到国家领导人在这方面支持我们。因此，就这方面的支持而言，显然很可能在某个时候会发生。我认为，如果是两个政党之间的竞选，他们的备选候选人可能会是共和党人，但 UAW（汽车工人联合会）可能不会走这条路。因此，这可能只是一些姿态，而不是实际行动，拜登越早获得这个支持，对他在建立支持者和基础方面越有好处。
So there's still some, you know, a little bit of power that the UAW could have there in terms of, you know, withholding that endorsement. And it also sounds like they're kind of waiting a little bit to see how negotiations go in terms of the union contracts with the big three automakers, you know, big three excluding Tesla, which is quickly working its way up there. So it'll be interesting to see that, but obviously withholding their, their support at this point in time.
所以，UAW在某种程度上还有一些权力，比如可以在背书方面保持一定的保留。另外，他们似乎也在等待联合谈判和三大汽车制造商签订工会合同的进展情况，这三大自动车制造商不包括特斯拉，但特斯拉正在快速晋升。这将是很有趣的事情，但显然在这个时候保留他们的支持。
And then lastly for today, we've got an update on the born company we've talked previously about how they had filed to potentially expand their infrastructure in Clark County in Las Vegas. And they've now received approval to add 25 new miles of plan tunnels and 18 new stations in Vegas. The commission voted on this today and approved it approved the plan in a six to one vote. The one holdout was basically on the premise that the current plans did not take account into employees, did not take into enough accounts employees and how their transportation needs should be met.
最后，今天我们有一个born公司的更新。我们之前谈过，他们已经提交了申请，计划在拉斯维加斯的克拉克县扩展基础设施。现在，他们已经获得了批准，可以在维加斯增加25英里的平面隧道和18个新站点。今天委员会就这个提案进行了表决，并以六票对一票的结果批准了这个计划。那个持不同意的人主要是因为目前的计划没有充分考虑到员工，没有考虑到员工的交通需求应该如何满足。
So it was nothing against the project in general. They just had a different preference for sort of the layout in terms of the new stations and tunnel plans. So really good to see that for the born company should be really exciting to follow that expansion here in the coming years. And I'm anxious to get back out to Vegas and hopefully give that a shot, especially with these, you know, new expanded systems. All right. Not a wrap it up for today. And so as always, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe to Inside of For Notifications and also find me on Twitter at Tessile Podcast. And we'll see you tomorrow for the Friday May 4th episode of Tessile Daily. Thank you.
他们对该项目总体没有反对意见，只是在新车站和隧道计划的布局上有不同的偏好。看到生产公司扩张的发展是非常令人兴奋的，尤其是在未来的几年内。我很期待回到拉斯维加斯，尝试这些新的扩展系统。好了，今天就到这里。总之，感谢您的听取。请确保订阅Inside of For Notifications，并在Twitter上找到我@TessilePodcast。我们明天再见，Tessile Daily上的5月4日星期五的一集。谢谢。