Renault's Alarming Tesla Comments / Tesla "Bets the Company" on FSD / Tesla Inventory ⚡️
发布时间 2023-04-26 21:00:51 来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Dylan Lumis, quickshad out to my newest patrons, Jess L and Sean N. Thank you for choosing to support the channel.
欢迎来到电气化时代，我是你的主持人Dylan Lumis，先向我最新的赞助人Jess L和Sean N表示感谢，感谢你们选择支持这个频道。
If you're on social media, I would imagine you've seen that narrative going around right now that Tesla is basically now betting the entire company on solving FSD. I just want to take a second to share some data and show why I disagree strongly with this sentiment.
如果你在社交媒体上，我想你肯定看到了现在流传的说法，即特斯拉现在基本上把整个公司的赌注都下在了解决全自动驾驶上。我想花一点时间分享一些数据，并展示为什么我强烈反对这种观点。
I also think it's very important to separate and add the nuance to the conversation of FSD vs autonomy. Those should be two different things. FSD is something that Tesla is selling right now that's already providing value to Tesla customers and investors. And autonomy on the other hand is not here yet. This would be my understanding of robotaxies in the future.
我认为将自动驾驶（FSD）和自主驾驶的细微差别区分开非常重要。这两个概念应该是不同的。FSD是特斯拉目前正在销售的并已经为特斯拉的客户和投资者提供价值的东西。而自主驾驶还没有到来。这是我对未来机器人出租车的理解。
Just some quick numbers, this is the number of vehicles Tesla delivered last year. If we assume the FSD take rate is even 2% to be conservative, times each person paying $15,000 for the software, that's about $394 million in revenue.
这只是一些快速的数字，这是特斯拉去年交付的车辆数量。如果我们假设自动驾驶功能的接受率非常低，甚至只有2％，每个购买软件的人都要支付15000美元，那么大约可以获得3.94亿美元的收入。
But we could also consider this that much in profit because this is near 100% margins. Now yes, Tesla is paying people for FSD and all of the development for hardware for etc. But those development costs are already baked into Tesla's financials and every car gets this hardware in software even if it's not active so let's just consider it as profit.
但我们也可以考虑这个是相当大的利润，因为近乎100%的利润率。现在，是的，特斯拉正在为自动驾驶付费并为硬件等进行开发。但这些开发成本已经纳入特斯拉的财务，每辆车都配备相应硬件和软件，即使它没有激活，因此我们可以将其视为利润。
You would then divide that by 3.475 billion shares of Tesla that are outstanding, fully diluted. And that's about 11 cents per share just coming from Tesla's FSD subscription.
然后，您将将这个数字除以特斯拉现有的已发行和全部摊薄的35亿股股份，从而得到每股约11美分，这个金额来自特斯拉的FSD（全自动驾驶）订阅服务。
So unless Sean is erroneously referring to autonomy using the terminology FSD, the current version of Tesla's FSD is definitely already greater than zero value for investors.
所以，除非肖恩误用了FSD术语来指代自主性，否则特斯拉现行版本的FSD对投资者来说绝对已经有了非零价值。
Sean went on to say why would anybody pay a 40 multiple for Tesla stock? Well the thing is Wall Street really looks at the forward looking PE. So for 2024 using Wall Street's latest estimate of $5.10 per share, Tesla's current forward PE is actually 30.
肖恩接着说，为什么有人会买Tesla股票的40倍市盈率呢？其实，华尔街主要看的是未来市盈率。根据华尔街最新估算的每股5.10美元的预期盈利，到2024年，Tesla的未来市盈率实际上是30倍。
And if we take Tesla's growth rate which over the long term should be in the neighborhood of 30 in terms of both volumes and earnings per share, well that makes the pay ratio right around 1. So you could argue very easily it's actually fairly valued. Of course just using these simple basic metrics.
如果我们考虑特斯拉的增长率，长期来看，其销量和每股收益应该都在30左右，那么薪酬比率会接近1。因此，你很容易能够辩称它实际上是相当价值的。当然，这只是使用这些简单的基本指标。
Getting back to how James said Tesla is betting the entire income statement on the future potential of FSD, I would push back is giving up a few basis points of gross margin in the short term to continually drive sales through a recession, betting the entire income statement I would say absolutely not.
回到詹姆斯说特斯拉正在押注全额收入声明于FSD未来潜力这一点上，我可以迎击并表示，在短期内放弃一些毛利点来不断推动在经济衰退中的销售，绝对不是押宝整个收入声明。
In case anybody's forgotten, Tesla has an entire Tesla energy division that seems poised to carry the auto division through any gross margin compression for the year. For the entirety of 2022, Tesla's energy division generated $288 million in profit. In quarter one of this year, same division did $168 million in profit.
如果有人忘了，特斯拉有一个完整的特斯拉能源部门，似乎准备通过任何毛利压缩来支撑汽车部门的发展。在整个2022年，特斯拉的能源部门创造了2.88亿美元的利润。今年第一季度，同样的部门创造了1.68亿美元的利润。
So there's definitely a path to Tesla generating a billion dollars in profit just from the energy division alone this year. Let's just be conservative and say the number works out to $800 million in incremental profit that Tesla generates from energy this year.
那么从能源部门单独来看，特斯拉今年肯定有实现十亿美元利润的道路。就算我们保守一点，假设特斯拉今年从能源方面所产生的额外利润为8亿美元。
If again you divide that by the number of fully diluted shares outstanding, that gives us an extra 23 cents in earnings per share. So Tesla is not betting a single cent from this number on the future potential of FSD.
如果你再把这个数字除以总发行的Fully Diluted股票数，这将为我们每股收益增加23美分。因此，特斯拉没有对FSD的未来潜力押注一分钱。
With this last statement in green, I'm not sure if James is subtly implying that the business can't stand on its own without FSD, but if that's his take, then I staunchly disagree.
在这个绿色的最后声明中，我不确定詹姆斯是否在暗示没有FSD，这家企业无法独立立足，但如果他是这样想，那么我坚决不同意。
Tesla has virtually no debt, 22 billion in the bank. It's leading the entire industry toward our 100% EV future and we're only at around 7% market penetration depending on geography while becoming arguably one of the best manufacturing companies on the planet.
特斯拉几乎没有债务，银行存款达到了220亿美元。特斯拉正在引领整个行业向我们100%的电动汽车未来发展，而我们只占有全球市场的大约7%，具体取决于地理位置。同时，特斯拉成为了可能是地球上最好的制造公司之一。
It's one of the leaders in the battery energy storage revolution with Powerwall and MegaPak and it's set up beautifully to capitalize on the IRA incentives for the next decade.
这家公司是电池能量存储革命的领导者之一，具有Powerwall和MegaPak，并且为未来10年的IRA激励措施做好了充分的资本化准备。
Tesla literally created a new battery cell and is making it in-house. It has absurd upside with things like Optimus and Dojo and I of course could go on and on.
特斯拉实际上创造了一种新的电池单元，并且正在内部生产。它有着非凡的优势，例如Optimus和Dojo等技术，当然，我还可以继续列举许多其他优点。
And yeah, if FSD hits and eventually morphs into Robotaxi's an autonomy, then it's true, nobody has any idea what's coming when it comes to the valuation for Tesla. However, even along the way there on that path, this business line is already very profitable for Tesla.
是的，如果全自动驾驶技术得到实现，并最终演变成机器出租车，则可以肯定的是，在特斯拉进行估值时，没有人能真正了解它的未来。但即便如此，在此过程中，特斯拉的这个业务方向已经非常赚钱了。
And it's also providing real value to hundreds of thousands of people. So I've been saying for a while I do think we should expect some level of multiple compression for Tesla stock in the short term given everything in the macro.
它还为数以十万计的人提供了真实的价值。因此，考虑到宏观环境中的一切，我认为在短期内我们应该预计特斯拉股票的一定程度的多重压缩。
But this take just seems like a knee jerk reaction swinging the pendulum way too far the other direction.
但这个观点似乎只是一种自动反射，把摆锤摆到了另一个方向上的极端。
意思是说，这个观点过于偏激，不是一个合理的反应或解决问题的方法。
On the Q1 call, Tesla said that they're expecting to start producing cathode material from this facility in Austin by the end of this year. So I figured we'd take a few seconds to drop in and check on the progress because we haven't seen a drone fly over now in a couple months. So as you can see, the walls are up and it's coming along nicely.
在Q1的电话会议上，特斯拉表示他们希望在今年年底从这个奥斯汀设施开始生产正极材料。因此，我想我们需要花几秒钟来检查进展情况，因为我们已经好几个月没有看到无人机飞过了。所以，正如你所看到的，墙已经搭好了，一切进展顺利。
Here we have some data from the ACEA looking at European Union market share in March. Specifically, battery electric vehicles coming in at 13.9% for the month. As you can see, no, that number does not include hybrid vehicles. That's just full electric. But I wanted to point out we're not seeing the decline in petrol sales that we would expect to yet. In March, new registrations for petrol cars were up 29.9% year over year and 1 million petrol cars were sold in the first quarter of this year, up 18.6% year over year.
这里有一些来自ACEA的数据，关注的是三月份欧盟市场份额。具体来说，三月份的纯电动汽车占13.9％。正如您所看到的，不，这个数字不包括混合动力车。这只是全电动。但我想指出的是，我们尚未看到汽油销售的预期下降。在三月份，汽油车的新注册数量同比增长29.9％，今年第一季度销售100万辆汽油车，同比增长18.6％。
I don't want to be a dead horse here, but with Troy sharing this and it getting a lot of circulation, I figured it's good to touch on it for a moment. First of all, this chart is the total United States inventory listing. So it is true that these numbers do not include vehicles and transit to customers. These are actual listings on the Tesla website for new inventory.
我不想在这里重复说废话，但考虑到特洛伊分享了这个信息并得到了很多传播，我认为短暂地谈一谈还是很有好处的。首先，这张图表列出的是美国所有车辆的库存清单。因此，这些数字不包括已经被售出且运往消费者那里的车辆。这些数字反映的是Tesla公司官网上新车库存的真实情况。
I also see too many people erroneously saying, well, there's only 2,500 total. So what's the big deal? Tesla's making hundreds of thousands of cars a quarter. Well, the way this works is this. So here are those new inventory listings. Let's say Tesla actually has 20 of this exact vehicle. Well, they're not going to have 20 listings exactly the same. They'll just have this one, even if there's actually 20 available. Meaning this number right here is actually higher, but how much higher?
我也看到很多人错误地说，好吧，总共只有2500辆，那有什么大不了的呢？特斯拉每个季度都生产数十万辆汽车。这是怎么回事呢？现在让我来解释一下。这是最新的库存清单。假设特斯拉实际上有20辆确切的车辆。嗯，他们不会有20个完全相同的清单。即使实际上有20辆可用，他们只会有这一个售货清单。这意味着这里的数字实际上更高，但是具体有多高呢？
Looking at the slide deck for Q1 Tesla's global vehicle inventory days of supply is still only at 15. I've said before, as long as this number is below 30 in my opinion, all as well. Trying to sustain this number under 10 like it was last year during the height of the supply chain issues is just not sustainable for a company growing as quickly as it is globally like Tesla. Finding Tesla's inventory number is pretty easy. You just saw for X in this equation, but I already did it. So let's say the inventory is 85,000. You just divide that by the current quarter total deliveries, which was 422 875.
观察特斯拉第一季度的幻灯片，全球车辆库存天数仍只有15天。我之前说过，只要这个数字低于30，我认为一切都好。试图将这个数字维持在像去年供应链问题高峰期时的10以下，对于像特斯拉这样全球快速发展的公司来说是不可持续的。找到特斯拉的库存数量非常容易。你只需要在这个方程中看到X，但我已经计算过了。假设库存为85,000，你只需要将其除以当前季度总交付量，也就是422875。
Then you multiply that number by 75 in order to get that 15 days of supply. So if you wanted to take Tesla's current global inventory number and actually divide that by the number on this new listing inventory chart of about 2500, that would be a multiplier of about 34 from the raw number that we see on the chart. But be careful with that because obviously that number will fluctuate greatly week to week month month. So that's really just a very loose rule of thumb. Either way, for whatever it may be worth to you, I personally am not at all concerned about these levels. It's something I'm watching absolutely, but I've been expecting this to some degree.
你需要将那个数字乘以75来得到15天的供应量。因此，如果你想要将特斯拉当前的全球库存数除以这个新的清单库存图表上的大约2500个数字，那么从图表上看到的原始数字就需要乘以约34。但要小心，因为这个数字会因为周到月的不同而大幅波动。所以这只是一个非常粗略的规则而已。无论如何，对于您来说，无论价值如何，我个人并不担心这些水平。这是我一直在关注的事情，但我一定程度上是预料到这种情况的。
We have the IEA predicting today that nearly one in five cars sold globally this year will be electric. So globally we're heading toward a 20% market penetration rate. That would be up from what was only 4% back in 2020.
国际能源署今天预测，全球今年销售的汽车中将近五分之一为电动汽车。因此，全球市场渗透率将达到20％左右。这比2020年的4％要高得多。
A US labor board official has ruled that a Tesla supervisor at a service center in Florida basically broke some rules. They had an employee complaining that new hires were being paid more than the people that have been working there. Apparently they told them to be quiet and then later that person who brought it up was actually fired. Tesla of course pushed back saying they quickly posted a notice saying that their employees could actually talk about their pay. So far no word on fines or repercussions. Either way, I would imagine it will be pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things.
美国劳工委员会的官员裁定一名特斯拉服务中心在佛罗里达州的主管基本上违反了一些规定。他们有一名雇员抱怨新员工的薪资比已经在那里工作的人高。显然，他们告诉他们安静下来，之后提出这个问题的人实际上被解雇了。特斯拉当然反击说，他们很快发布了通知，说他们的员工实际上可以谈论他们的薪资。目前还没有关于罚款或后果的消息。无论如何，在大局上，我想它将是相当微不足道的。
Honda is using GM's architecture for its upcoming prologue in 2024, but now Honda is saying come 2025 for their second full EV. They're going to use their own E architecture for a mid to large size EV in North America.
本田汽车将在2024年使用通用汽车的架构来设计其即将推出的首款电动车，但是现在本田表示，他们的第二款全新电动车将在2025年推出。对于这款中到大型电动车，在北美地区，本田将采用他们自己的E电动车架构。
Car and driver shared this image with the article, but this is actually just a Chinese concept car, not necessarily what we're going to be getting in North America in 2025.
Car and Driver在这篇文章中使用了这张图像，但实际上这只是一辆中国概念车，不一定是我们在2025年北美能获得的车型。
We've heard rumors, but from benchmark both BYD and CATL are set to roll out sodium ion batteries in electric vehicles. BYD will actually be making their own in-house and introducing it first in the upcoming SEGOL, which is supposed to start at $11,000.
我们听说有传言，不过从基准测试来看，比亚迪和宁德时代都打算在电动汽车上推出钠离子电池。比亚迪实际上会自己生产这种电池，并首先在即将推出的SEGOL车型上使用，售价预计为11,000美元。
It's going to be a compact hatchback with a 30 or a 38 kilowatt hour battery, but the smaller 30 kilowatt hour version is set to use sodium ion batteries and get up to 190 miles. Sadly they don't say what cycle this is on so the EPA equivalent could be lower, but either way mass production is for later this year.
这将是一款紧凑型掀背车，搭载30或38千瓦时电池。但是，更小的30千瓦时版本将使用钠离子电池，续航里程可达190英里。遗憾的是，它们没有说明这是基于哪个标准测试，因此美国环保署的等效里程可能会更低，但无论如何，大规模生产计划于今年晚些时候开始。
The point being, it's time to watch the rise of sodium ion.
重点在于，现在是观察钠离子崛起的时候了。
This Friday, Elon is set to go have a chat with Bill Maher, so if you're interested, be aware.
本周五，伊隆将与比尔·马赫进行一次聊天，如果你感兴趣，要注意一下。
How about this one? We have a lot of time to talk about the new technology and other Chinese self-driving car companies are developing alternative tech to high-definition maps because the precision required for autonomy makes the mapping process prohibitively expensive.
这个怎么样？我们有很多时间来谈论新技术。其他中国自动驾驶汽车公司正在开发替代的技术来取代高清地图，因为实现自主驾驶所需的精度使地图制作过程成本过高。
We've been collecting data in Shanghai for one or two years, but we still have not been able to cover all 9,000 kilometers of the city's roads. It's almost like Tesla has been on to something here.
我们在上海收集数据已经有一两年了，但是我们仍然没有能够覆盖城市9,000公里的所有道路。这就像特斯拉在这方面做了些什么似的。
Another architecture of future vehicles that will be on par by 2026 with that of the industry leader Tesla. They set a software-defined vehicle design will be at the heart of Renault's future electric vehicle entity Ampere.
到2026年，雷诺的未来车型将会与业界领导者特斯拉的车型相匹配，采用另一种建筑风格。他们将采用软件定义的车辆设计，将其置于雷诺未来的电动车实体Ampere的核心地位。
And they say working with Google and Qualcomm, they'll be able to go from 100 processors currently down to 20 in this future architecture.
他们表示与谷歌和高通合作后，他们将能够将当前100个处理器减少到未来架构中的20个。
They then go on to brag about things like OTA updates saying this is similar with Tesla in 2026 they're going to have the same approach. They have the same EV architecture approach in 2026. We will be at the level of Tesla.
然后他们继续吹嘘OTA更新等事情，说这与2026年的特斯拉类似，他们将采用相同的方法。到2026年，他们将拥有相同的电动汽车架构。我们将达到特斯拉的水平。
Here's the problem with that Renault has no clue where Tesla is going to become 2026 because Tesla is not a target sitting still. It is moving.
这就是问题所在，雷诺并不知道特斯拉未来的发展方向，因为特斯拉一直在不断变化。它在不断前进。
But this is basically an admission that they are at least three years behind and I would imagine Tesla's present day form. I guess some level of prop should be given here for the candor alone but to say something like this publicly cannot be a great look and can't be great for sales.
这基本上是承认他们至少比特斯拉现今的形态滞后了三年。我想这种坦诚至少应该得到一些赞扬，但公开这样说不能看起来很好，也不能对销售有什么帮助。
We got a no-text, no-context picture of an eager gigapress shipping somewhere. Maybe it's going to Austin, maybe it's somewhere around the globe we just don't know yet.
我们收到了一张没有文字、没有背景信息的照片，上面展示着一个急切地要出货的巨型压铸设备。可能它要运往奥斯汀，也可能是其他地方，我们还不清楚。
You can find me on Twitter at DillonLumus22. Hope you guys have a wonderful day. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
您可以在 Twitter 上找到我，账号是 DillonLumus22。希望大家有美好的一天。如果您喜欢这个视频，请点击“喜欢”按钮，再次感谢所有支持我的 Patreon 的粉丝们。