Farley Gives Elon and Tesla Advice / EV Leasing Exploding / What's Up With Hertz? ⚡️
发布时间 2023-04-28 20:10:29 来源
Welcome to Electrified, it's your host, Stillin Luma, so first up we get Kelly Bluebook's 5-year Cost to Own Awards for 2023. Personally, I don't find these super useful because there is a lack of transparency for how they're arriving at these awards. They just say they use a sophisticated valuation methodology along with critical financial data from third party providers.
欢迎来到电气化，我是节目主持人斯蒂林·卢马。首先，我们来介绍凯利蓝皮书2023年的五年拥有成本大奖。个人认为，这些奖项并不是非常有用，因为我们无法透明地了解他们是如何评选这些奖项的。他们只是说他们使用了先进的估值方法和来自第三方提供商的重要财务数据。
Either way, to pass the information along for the 30-year in-a-ro Toyota and its luxury sibling Lexus take on the top brand prizes, looking at the awards by vehicle category, as you can see for electric car and SUV, the Chevy Bolt took home both of those categories with the EV and EUV respectively, but that should be ending production this year. Then Tesla wins two awards with the Model 3 for the best 5-year cost-owned luxury electric car and the Model Y for the luxury electric SUV.
无论如何，要将这些信息传递给读者：丰田及其豪华子品牌雷克萨斯已拿下了30年来的顶级品牌奖项。根据车辆类别评选，可以看到在电动车和SUV方面，雪佛兰Bolt车型分别荣获了这两个类别的奖项，但该车型预计今年停产。而特斯拉则凭借Model 3成为拥有最佳5年成本的豪华电动车，并凭借Model Y成为豪华电动SUV的获奖车型。
I think this is great to encourage more consumers to think from a total cost of ownership standpoint, rather than just the sticker price, but as we know at the end of the day, your actual cost of ownership will vary greatly depending on your geography, in your use case, etc.
我认为这是一个很好的善意，可以鼓励更多的消费者从总拥有成本的角度思考，而不仅仅是关注价格标签，但我们知道，在最终的情况下，你实际的拥有成本将会因您所在的地理位置、使用情况等而有很大的差异。
From the Hertz Key-1 earnings call, we learned that they have 50,000 EVs in the fleet at the end of quarter-one, which makes up about 10% of the total car fleet right now. That number, of course, expected to increase as they're expecting around 100,000 just from Tesla in time. Hertz, of course, won't be in the camp complaining about Tesla's price cuts as they are benefiting from this. They're also predicting 2 million EV rentals this year, which would be five times more than last year.
在赫兹公司第一季度财报电话会议中，我们了解到他们现有50000辆电动车在车队中，占总车队的约10%。当然，这个数字预计会增加，因为他们预计未来从特斯拉将获得大约10万辆车。赫兹公司当然不会抱怨特斯拉的价格削减，因为他们从中受益。他们还预测今年将有200万辆电动汽车出租，这比去年增长了五倍。
That said, I think it's worth pointing out if you actually do some math. It looks like Hertz bought more ICE vehicles in quarter-one than EVs. In quarter-four of last year, EVs made up 11% of its overall fleet, and as we just said in quarter-one, it's down to 10%, but the overall fleet did actually grow. It's a small change, of course, but absolutely something to watch, because if everything really was as great with EV rentals as Hertz has said publicly, and with the Tesla price cuts early in quarter-one, why are we seeing this? I don't know.
话虽如此，我认为如果你真做了些数学计算，就会发现这是有价值的。看起来赫兹在第一季度购买的冰汽车比电动汽车还多。去年第四季度，电动汽车占其整个车队的11%，而正如我们刚才提到的，在第一季度，这个比例下降到了10%，但整个车队确实增长了。这只是一个小变化，当然，绝对值得关注，因为如果一切真的像赫兹公开说的那样对电动汽车租赁非常好，并且在第一季度初特斯拉价格下调，为什么我们会看到这种情况呢？我不知道。
Tesla has a new landing page on the website. Now it's clearly this video where you can experience a Tesla and schedule a demo drive where previously you would land on the Model Y with a button to order one. Speaking of the Model Y, the 7-seat configuration has been dropped $1,000 in price to $3,000 now. Honestly, though, this was previously the price before the price increase, so we're really just back to where we started.
特斯拉的网站上现有新的着陆页面。现在页面明确展示了一个视频，您可以通过观看视频来体验特斯拉汽车并预约试驾，此前您只能通过点击购买按钮来进入 Model Y 页面。说到 Model Y，7座配置的价格已经降低了1000美元，现在售价为3000美元。但说实话，这个价格其实是在价格上涨之前的价格，所以我们现在只是回到了起点。
We have Morgan Stanley putting out Tesla stock notes about as frequently as the New York Times tweets. A few themes to watch. They're expecting a 45% year-over-year increase in China's net vehicle exports this year. Why? Because the local competition in the domestic market is heating up and showing signs of early saturation. And we've been saying it for weeks, but watching how aggressively these Chinese companies look to expand into Europe and most likely eventually North America is a huge question.
摩根士丹利不断发布特斯拉股票信息笔记，数量几乎和纽约时报的推文一样频繁。有几个主题值得关注。他们预计今年中国的净车辆出口将同比增长45%。为什么呢？因为国内市场的本土竞争正在加剧，显示出早期饱和的迹象。我们已经说了几个星期了，但观察这些中国公司如何大力扩展到欧洲，最有可能最终进军北美是一个巨大的问题。
Using data from S&P Global, they're expecting that Chinese automotive imports into the EU may account for 20% of all EU imports by the end of this year, which would be up from less than just 1% 5 years ago, so this trend really is happening. Their simple takeaway is that the biggest loser from this trend could be the EU domestic car brands that maybe won't be able to compete on price like companies like Tesla and these domestic Chinese companies.
根据S&P Global的数据，他们预计中国汽车进口到欧盟可能在今年年底占据所有欧盟进口的20％，而这个数字在5年前还不到1％，因此这个趋势确实正在出现。他们的简单结论是，这个趋势最大的输家可能是欧盟国内汽车品牌，他们可能无法像特斯拉和这些国产中国汽车公司一样在价格上竞争。
The price wars and the Chinese market have been talked about ad nauseam, but now that market is seemingly going to be exported into the European market, so those lower prices are really going to start to squeeze some of the competition in the European market. Why do these Chinese companies have such a cost advantage? Well, one, cheaper labor and two, the battery supply chain. They're right there, directly located in the heart of it and it's already at a massive scale.
价格战和中国市场已经被反复谈论，但现在这个市场似乎要输出到欧洲市场，这些更低的价格将真正开始挤压欧洲市场的竞争。为什么这些中国公司有如此的成本优势呢？一方面，是更便宜的劳动力，另一方面，则是电池供应链。它们就在那里，直接位于其中心，而且已经达到了大规模。
Simple takeaway, though, they have yet to see another OEM that can truly rival Tesla with an EV that offers current, attractive unit economics. Not a Tesla app is now reporting due to some updates in the Tesla owner's manual that automatic emergency braking will now actually function, albeit limited in reverse. They've also increased the operational speed range. Previously, it was from 3 miles per hour to 90 miles per hour, but that cap has actually been increased to up to 124 miles per hour. AEB over 100 miles per hour would definitely be an experience.
然而，简单来说，他们还没有看到其他OEM生产的电动汽车能够真正与特斯拉竞争，提供当前和有吸引力的单元经济。现在一个特斯拉应用程序正在报告，由于特斯拉车主手册中的一些更新，自动紧急制动现在实际上将会发挥作用，尽管在倒车时有限制。他们还增加了操作速度范围。以前，它是从3英里每小时到90英里每小时，但这个上限现在已经提高到124英里每小时。超过100英里每小时的AEB肯定是一种体验。
You may recall those comments from Jim Farley on Tesla about how the price cuts should be expected. It's really nothing new. But Farley went further and gave Elon and Tesla some advice, saying, I think what Elon's going to learn is product freshness means a lot. The product gets commoditized and then you lose your pricing premium. That's a really dangerous thing. He went on to talk about how Ford did this way back with the Model T.
你可能还记得Jim Farley关于特斯拉价格调整的评论，这已经不是新鲜事了。但是Farley进一步给Elon和特斯拉提出了建议，他说：“我认为Elon会了解到产品的新鲜度意味着很多。产品变得普遍化，你就失去了定价的优势。这是非常危险的。”他接着谈到Ford在很久以前曾经用Model T做过这个事情。
Honestly, I think this will always be a debate around Tesla. Is there fleet outdated? Do they need to do more from a product refresh or a cycling scenario? We've heard a lot about this chatter in China. How the consumers there really expect this from the Chinese brands and that may be hurting Tesla to some degree in that market? Part of the problem is those of us that follow Tesla very closely know that almost weekly, they're actually refreshing something in the vehicles. Maybe it's not always an exterior change, but they're constantly updating the cars.
老实说，我认为这将一直是有关特斯拉的一个争议话题。他们的车队是否已经过时？他们是否需要对产品进行更新或更换？我们听到了很多关于这个话题在中国的讨论。消费者们真正期望这些来自中国品牌，这可能在一定程度上伤害了特斯拉在这个市场上的地位。问题的一部分在于，我们这些非常密切关注特斯拉的人们知道，他们几乎每周都在车辆上进行改进。也许这并不总是外观的变化，但他们不断更新汽车。
The problem is most of the general public has no idea. They think the Model 3 that was unveiled in what? 2017 is the exact same car now five years later, but we know that's not the case. Look, I understand what Farley was getting at with the comment, but if you look at the word commoditized and the truest definition of the word, which really just means that that product becomes identical to other offerings in the same class, that very clearly is not at all the case with Tesla because no competitors are offering products like Tesla at these lower prices.
问题在于大多数普通公众没有真正了解。他们认为在什么时候发布的 Model 3，现在五年后仍然是同一款车型，但我们知道不是这样的。我明白Farley的评论意图，但如果你看一下“商品化”这个词和其最真实的定义，其实就是该产品变得和同一类别的其他产品无异，这显然并不适用于Tesla，因为没有竞争对手能以这个更低的价格提供像Tesla这样的产品。
And to me, it just seems obvious that any company choosing to try to maintain these pricing premiums is going to come out of this recession with a much smaller market share. So yeah, if you're focused on the short term, you know, the next six to 12 months, maybe that's the best strategy, especially for financials, but if we're thinking longer term and brand awareness and all of those things, then it's very clearly Tesla strategy that would be the winner in my book.
对我来说，很明显，任何企业选择试图保持这些价格溢价的话，将会在这次经济衰退后拥有更小的市场份额。如果你着眼于短期，比如接下来的六到十二个月，那么也许这是最好的策略，尤其是财务方面的考量，但如果我们考虑长期以及品牌知名度等方面的因素，那么从我的角度来看，特斯拉的策略显然是赢家。
Billy C did another great video of a Tesla ad. I don't want to play it due to copyright issues, but I will include a link below if you happen to have not seen it yet. I've showed you guys this before Hyundai's crab walk. It's really kind of surreal to watch. Do I ever think we see this in production? I would say it's unlikely at best. But the crab walk paired with things like diagonal driving for when you're passing somebody in these situations. It's definitely a cool feature, but again, probably way too complex and don't expect to see it.
Billy C拍摄了另一则很棒的特斯拉广告视频。由于版权问题，我不想播放，但如果你还没看过，我将在下面附上链接。我之前已经向你们介绍过现代汽车的“螃蟹步行”了。看起来真的非常不真实。我是否认为我们能在生产中看到这一点？我会说最好的情况也不太可能。但这种螃蟹步行与其他一些情况下的斜向驾驶相配合，确实是一个很酷的功能，但可能过于复杂，不应期望看到它在实际生产中出现。
One other thing to watch is this leasing loophole with the IRA. It seems to be widening with each passing day, allowing consumers to bypass all of the income caps and the MSRP caps and the battery sourcing and component requirement caps with the traditional IRA credits. As I've said before, the big question is will these automakers now pass along the $7,500 credits and basically filter them into the lease rates or will they keep it for themselves?
另一个需要注意的问题是，与IRA相关的租赁漏洞。似乎每过一天，这个漏洞都在扩大，允许消费者绕过所有收入限制、MSRP限制、电池采购和零部件要求限制，使用传统的IRA积分。正如我之前所说，现在的重要问题是，这些汽车制造商是否会将7,500美元的积分转移到租赁费用中，或是他们会独吞积分？
The CEO of Ford credit just said he expects 60% of EV drivers in the US to lease in the short term instead of buying, which is three times more than the 20% lease rate of ICE cars. This of course is a huge deal for all of the automakers not currently making their vehicles in North America that were excluded from the traditional tax credits. Well, this leasing loophole now gives them an option. And Ford credit is going to be a big supporter of leasing.
福特信贷公司CEO刚刚表示，他预计短期内美国60%的电动汽车驾驶员会选择租赁而非购买，这是传统汽油车20%租赁率的3倍。对于所有目前不在北美制造汽车并被排除在传统税收抵免之外的汽车制造商来说，这显然是一个巨大的机会。现在他们有了租赁漏洞。福特信贷将成为租赁的重要支持者。
And we're already seeing this play out. Look at this. 28% of Hyundai's EVs were leased in quarter one up from just 5% in 2022. In the United States in March, the lease rate went up to 34% from 18% just one year ago. With the $7,500 leasing credit, you effectively get that payment now in terms of a lower monthly payment rather than waiting to recoup it at tax time. Polestar North America's CEO said they're already seeing an increase in leasing rates for the Polestar 2 and he attributed it to a very competitive 36 month lease that does include the $7,500 commercial clean vehicle tax credit.
我们已经看到这种趋势正在发生。看这个数据：在第一季度，现代汽车的电动车的租赁率增长到28%，而在2022年仅为5%。在美国，租赁率在三月份从一年前的18%上升到34%。通过7500美元的租赁信贷，您现在可以以更低的月付款来获得该付款，而不必等到税款到期时弥补。Polestar北美的首席执行官表示，他们已经看到Polestar 2的租赁率增长，并将其归因于36个月的竞争性租赁，其中包括7500美元的商业清洁车辆税收优惠。
Some companies are definitely advertising this commercial tax credit as part of their leases. But as far as I can tell, Tesla has been fairly quiet on how they're handling this. Did you guys see this? This center cam footage where this guy basically poured gasoline on a Tesla and then lit the car on fire? Well, you know, sadly, stuff like this happens. But the worst part about this was before this footage was released, the Spokane Police Department told the owner of that Tesla that EVs just tend to catch on fire. Completely absurd.
有些公司肯定将商业税收抵免作为租赁条款的一部分来宣传。但就我所知，特斯拉在如何处理这个问题上保持相当沉默。你们有看到这个吗？中央摄像头的录像显示这个人基本上在特斯拉上倒了汽油，然后点燃了车子？嗯，不幸的是，这样的事情确实经常发生。但最糟糕的是，在这段录像发布之前，斯波坎警察局告诉特斯拉车主EVs（电动汽车）倾向于自燃，这完全荒谬。
Don't forget tonight on HBO, Elon will be talking with Bill Maher if you're interested.
如果你感兴趣的话，今晚在HBO上，埃隆将与比尔·马赫进行谈话，不要忘记。
You may remember I mentioned this pure watercraft company a few months back. Well, they finalized their production design. The motors are going to be powered by a 66 kilowatt hour pack using the same batteries that were used in the Chevy Bolt. They're saying you can expect over 40 miles of range and at least seven hours out on the water.
你可能还记得我几个月前提到过这家纯水艇公司。现在，他们已经完成了他们的生产设计。电动机将由一个使用与雪佛兰Volt相同的电池的66千瓦时电池组来驱动。他们说你可以期望行驶40多英里，并至少在水上停留七个小时。
This electric pontoon boat uses a standard J-1772 plug and will be built at a facility in West Virginia. The boat starts at $75,000 for a single motor variant and $95,000 for a twin motor.
这艘电动浮船使用标准的J-1772插头，并将在西弗吉尼亚州的一家工厂建造。单电机型号的价格为75,000美元，双电机型号的价格为95,000美元。
Don't forget, keep an eye out for that interview dropping this weekend. I'm leaning toward a Sunday morning upload. You can find me on Twitter at Dillon Luma's 22.
不要忘记了，本周末有一场面试即将发布，请关注。我倾向于在周日早晨发布。你可以在推特上找到我，用户名为 Dillon Luma's 22。
Hope you guys have a wonderful NSA weekend. Please like the video if you did and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
希望大家度过一个美好的周末。如果你喜欢这个视频，请点赞。非常感谢我所有赞助者的支持。