Tesla Q1 2026 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
发布时间 2026-04-22 22:34:58 来源
*music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* *music* Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Tesla's first quarter, that 2026 Q&A webcast. My name is Travis Axelrod, head of Investor Relations, and I'm joined today by Elon Musk, Vibov Taneja, and a number of other executives. Our Q1 results were announced at about 3 p.m. Central Time in the update deck we published at the same link as this webcast. During this call, we will discuss our business outlook and make forward-looking statements. These comments are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Actual events or events or results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those mentioned in our most recent filings with the SEC.
*音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* *音乐* 感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。感谢大家。大家下午好，欢迎来到特斯拉2026年第一季度问答网络直播。我是投资者关系负责人Travis Axelrod，今天和我一起的有Elon Musk、Vibov Taneja以及其他多位高管。我们的第一季度业绩已经在下午3点左右，通过与此次网络直播同一链接发布的更新文件中公布。在这次电话会议中，我们将讨论公司业务前景并做出前瞻性陈述。这些评论基于我们截至今天的预测和期望。实际情况或结果可能因多种风险和不确定性而显著不同，包括我们最近向SEC提交的文件中提到的因素。
During the question and answer portion of today's call, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please use the raise hand button to join the question queue. Before we jump into Q&A, Elon has some opening remarks. Elon? Thank you. So, I think we've got a very exciting year ahead of us with 2026. We're going to be substantially increasing our investments in the future, so we should expect to see a very significant increase in capital expenditures, but I think well justified for a substantially increased future revenue stream. And obviously, Tesla's not alone in this. I think you've seen most, if not all, certainly the major technology companies substantially increasing their capital investments. And we're going to be doing the same.
在今天电话会议的问答环节，请每位限问一个问题和一个追问。如果想提问，请使用举手按钮加入问题队列。在进入问答环节之前，Elon 先发表几点开场讲话。Elon？谢谢。我认为展望2026年，我们将迎来非常激动人心的一年。我们将大幅增加对未来的投资，因此可以预期资本支出将大幅增加，但我认为这是为了显著增加未来收入所值得的投入。而显然，不仅仅是特斯拉这样做。你可以看到大多数或所有主要的科技公司都在大幅增加资本投资。我们也将采取同样的行动。
I think it's going to pay off in a very big way. So, we're investing in and improving our core technologies, battery powertrain, AI software, AI training, chip design, manufacturing, laying the groundwork for significantly increased manufacturing production. We are also strengthening our supply chain across the board, batteries, energy, AI silicon, everything. And laying the groundwork, like I said, for what we expect to be a significant increase in vehicle production in the future. And of course, a very significant increase, well, actually releasing Optimus, but increasing our internal production for testing.
我认为这将会带来巨大的回报。因此，我们正在投资和改善我们的核心技术，包括电池动力系统、人工智能软件、人工智能训练、芯片设计和制造，为显著提高制造产能奠定基础。我们还在全面加强供应链，包括电池、能源、AI芯片等领域。一如既往，为我们预期的未来汽车生产大幅增长铺路。当然，最重要的是，实际上我们正在推出Optimus，同时也在增加内部测试的生产能力。
And then probably being able to have Optimus be useful outside of Tesla sometime next year. As you've heard me say a few times, I think Optimus will be our biggest product, not just Tesla's biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever. So, on our vehicle side, it's always, I think, worth noting that Tesla car is incredibly, incredible value for money. And they're all autonomy-ready, depending on what part of the world you're in. The supervised full-self driving is getting extremely good. We have just started production of CyberCab, and we'll begin production of our semi-truck soon.
明年我们可能会让Optimus在特斯拉之外的领域也变得有用。如你多次听我所说，我认为Optimus将成为我们最大的产品，不仅是特斯拉有史以来最大的产品，也可能是有史以来最大的产品。在汽车方面，我一直认为值得一提的是，特斯拉的汽车具有极高的性价比。而且这些车都是为自动驾驶准备好的，具体取决于你所在的地区。我们的监督式全自动驾驶技术正在变得非常强大。我们刚刚开始生产CyberCab，并将很快开始生产我们的半挂卡车。
Now, I should say, whenever you have a new product with a completely new supply chain, new everything, it's always a stretched-out S-curve. So, you should expect that initial production of CyberCab and semi will be very slow, but then ramping up and going kind of exponential towards the end of the year and certainly next year. And, in fact, we'll be ramping up production of all vehicles and all factories to the best of our ability through the balance of this year. On the energy front, the United States and the whole world will need a lot of energy storage to meet growing electricity demand.
现在，我要说，每当你有一个全新的产品，伴随着全新的供应链和其他新事物时，发展过程总是呈现出延长的 S 曲线。因此，你应该预期，CyberCab 和半挂卡车的初始生产会很慢，但随后会加速，接近年底和明年时会呈现出指数式增长。事实上，在今年剩下的时间里，我们会竭尽所能在所有工厂增加所有车辆的生产。在能源方面，美国和全世界将需要大量的能源储备以满足日益增长的用电需求。
Demand for our Megapack is very strong, and we're excited to begin production of Megapack 3 later this year in our new world-class factory outside Houston. For full-self driving and robotaxi, version 14.3 was a major architectural update, and we have a whole pipeline of major improvements to full-self driving that we believe will lead to unsupervised full-self driving being available anywhere in the world that it is legal to do so. And then -- and then there's a version 15, hopefully later this -- hopefully by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year, and that will be a complete overhaul of the software architecture, and we'll run on AI4.
对我们的Megapack需求非常强劲，我们很高兴今年晚些时候将在休斯顿外围的新一流工厂开始生产Megapack 3。对于全自动驾驶和无人出租车，14.3版本进行了重要的架构更新，我们有一整套对全自动驾驶的重大改进计划，我们相信这将使得在法律允许的任何地方都可以实现无人监督的全自动驾驶。然后，还有第15版，希望能在今年晚些时候推出，但无论如何，到明年年初一定会推出，这将是对软件架构的全面革新，并将在AI4上运行。
That's -- and that -- and that -- at that point, we're really just increasing the safety level of FSD above human safety level even more, meaning I think even within version 14, we're significantly safer than -- than human, but B15 will -- will take that to another level. We've expanded robotaxi to Dallas and Houston using the same software as Austin and the Bay Area, and the limiting factor for expansion is really rigorous validation, making sure things are completely safe -- we don't want to have a single accident or injury with the expansion of robotaxi, and we have -- to the credit of the team -- not had a single one to date.
这是——而那是——在那个时刻，我们实际上只是将全自动驾驶（FSD）的安全水平进一步提高到超过人类的安全水平。我认为即便是在版本14中，我们的安全性已经明显高于人类，而版本15将把这一水平提高到另一个高度。我们已经在达拉斯和休斯敦扩展了无人出租车的运营，使用的软件与奥斯汀和湾区的相同。扩展的限制因素主要是严格的验证，确保一切绝对安全——我们不希望在无人出租车的扩展过程中发生任何事故或伤害，而截至目前——归功于团队的努力——我们没有发生过一起事故。
So, and then Optimus -- we're preparing Fremont for the start of production later this year with Optimus. Again, totally new supply chain, totally new technology, so therefore, it's -- the production S-curve is always very slow in the beginning, but we'll ramp up to significant numbers next year. And we're constructing a second Optimus factory at our Giga Texas location, and that will probably start production around the summer next year. The V3 Optimus design is almost ready to demonstrate. I think we want to just make sure it's, like, polished. Like, it works functionally, but there's some aesthetic elements that need to be finalized. And I think probably middle of this year we should be able to show it off.
那么，我们正在为Optimus做准备，今年晚些时候将在弗里蒙特开始生产。需要注意的是，这是一条全新的供应链和全新的技术，所以在最初的生产阶段，增长速度总是很慢，但到明年我们将会大幅提高产量。我们正在德州的超级工厂建设第二个Optimus工厂，这大概会在明年夏天开始生产。V3版的Optimus设计已经接近准备好展示。我觉得我们想确保它完美无瑕。虽然功能上已经能正常运作，但在美观方面还有一些元素需要完善。我认为今年年中我们应该可以展示它。
We're also a little hesitant to show V3 off because we find our competitors do a frame-by-frame analysis whenever we release something and copy everything they possibly can. So I think there's some value to, you know, not showing new technology until it's close to production. So congratulations, again, to the Tesla AI chip team for taping out AI5. That's going to be a great chip. I think probably the best AI inference chip for edge compute that exists. And certainly, I think, unequivocally the best value for money. The team did a great job, and we already have a lot of momentum for designing AI6, and we've begun to discuss ideas for Dojo 3. So this is all very exciting.
我们也有点犹豫要展示V3，因为我们的竞争对手每当我们发布新东西时，都会进行逐帧分析并尽可能复制。因此，我认为在新技术接近量产前不展示它是有一定价值的。再次恭喜特斯拉AI芯片团队成功制作出AI5。这将会是一款很出色的芯片，我认为它可能是现存用于边缘计算的最佳AI推理芯片。而且，我相信它在性价比方面也是无可比拟的。团队表现出色，我们已经在设计AI6方面取得了很大的进展，并开始讨论Dojo 3的想法。这一切都非常令人兴奋。
We've also finalized plans for the chip fab -- the research chip fab -- on the Giga Texas campus, and we'll start construction of that this year. In conclusion, Tesla's working on a lot of large, ambitious projects. They're all very, very challenging, but I think they're going to be revolutionary. And this is what the team does best -- solve the hardest problems and build amazing products. And I'd like to thank the Tesla team for all the hard work, and thank you to all of our supporters.
我们也已经敲定了在德州超级工厂园区建立芯片制造厂——研究用的芯片制造厂的计划，并将在今年开始建设。总之，特斯拉正在进行许多大型且具有雄心的项目。这些项目都非常具有挑战性，但我相信它们将会是革命性的。这就是我们团队最擅长的——解决最困难的问题并制造出令人惊叹的产品。我要感谢特斯拉团队的所有辛勤工作，并感谢所有支持者。
Great. Thank you very much, Elon. And Vebov also has some opening remarks. Thanks, Travis. So, 2026 has had an interesting start, not just for us, but I think the world in general. On the auto's business, we have seen a resurgence in demand in EMEA and certain countries like France and Germany showing over 150% quarter-over-quarter growth in deliveries. In APAC, we've witnessed growth in South Korea and Japan, again, in terms of deliveries. Even out here in the U.S., we've seen a slight growth in terms of quarter-over-quarter deliveries.
太好了，非常感谢你，Elon。而且Vebov也有一些开场白。谢谢你，Travis。2026年开局不同凡响，不仅对我们而言，我认为对整个世界都是如此。在汽车业务方面，我们看到EMEA地区的需求回升，法国和德国等国家的交付量季度环比增长超过150%。在亚太地区，我们见证了韩国和日本交付量的增长。在美国这里，我们的交付量也略有增长。
On the auto backlog front, we ended the quarter with the highest Q1 auto backlog in over two years. Whilst the recent increase in gas prices has had a positive impact on the auto rate, this improvement started before the uptrend in gas prices. This is due to the work done by the Tesla team in bringing more compelling and affordable vehicles to market. Ten years back, when we launched Model 3 in the U.S. with the promise of $35,000 starting price, which, if you adjust today for inflation, translates to about $48,000 in today's dollar terms. The starting price of Model 3 today is way less than that, while the product is way more compelling from where it started.
在汽车积压订单方面，我们这一季度结束时的汽车积压订单量达到了两年多来的最高水平。虽然最近的油价上涨对汽车需求有积极影响，但这种改善在油价上涨趋势之前就已经开始。这主要归功于特斯拉团队在市场上推出了更具吸引力和更实惠的汽车。十年前，当我们在美国推出Model 3时，承诺的起价是35,000美元，如果考虑到通货膨胀，今天的价格约为48,000美元。而如今，Model 3的起价远低于这个价格，并且其产品性能相比当初也更具吸引力。
Given this setup, we're focused on increasing our overall production volume, something that we already started in Q1. This volume increase is evidenced by the Giga Berlin reaching a record output of over 61,000 units in Q1. We plan to keep growing volumes further, not just in Berlin, but across all our factories. Our biggest limiter continues to be our battery pack capacity, and we are actively working on resolving that. Auto margins, excluding credits, improved sequentially from 17.9% to 19.2%. Note that we have had certain one-time benefits from warranty true downs, around $230 million, and some relief on tariffs.
鉴于这种情况，我们专注于提高整体生产量，这一计划从第一季度就已经开始实施。生产量的提升有目共睹，柏林超级工厂在第一季度创下了超过61,000台的记录产量。我们计划继续增加产量，不仅限于柏林，而是扩展到所有工厂。我们面临的主要限制因素仍然是电池组的产能，对此我们正在积极解决。汽车毛利率（不包括碳信用额度）从17.9%提高到19.2%。需要注意的是，我们从保修政策调整中获得了约2.3亿美元的一次性收益，同时也享受了一些关税优惠。
We have not realized any benefit from the recent Supreme Court ruling on IPA tariffs, as there is still a lot of uncertainty around the final outcome. Both tariffs and sustained high interest rates continue to add to our automotive costs. Interest rate subvention costs are recognized upfront. If interest rates continue to rise, our cost of subvention will continue to impact auto margins. On the FSD adoption front, we continue to see improvement, reaching nearly 1.3 million paid customers globally. The bulk of the growth came from subscriptions, while upfront purchases only increased 7% as we removed the purchase option in some markets in Q1.
我们没有从最近最高法院关于IPA关税的裁决中获得任何好处，因为最终结果仍然充满不确定性。关税和持续的高利率继续增加我们的汽车成本。利率补贴成本会立即确认，如果利率继续上升，我们的补贴成本将继续影响汽车利润。在FSD（全自动驾驶）的采用方面，我们持续看到进展，全球付费用户人数达到近130万。增长的主要部分来自于订阅，而由于我们在第一季度取消了一些市场的购买选项，一次性购买仅增加了7%。
We recently received approval for FSD in Netherlands. This sets us well for EU-wide approval later in Q2, and we are just gated by how the regulators go about it. Secondly, we have received approvals in China. The broader approval is still not there, but we are working with the regulators in the country, and we are hoping that we can get approval by Q3. With these approvals coming through, we expect the broader adoption of the software in the existing fleet and incremental demand for our vehicles.
我们最近在荷兰获得了FSD（完全自动驾驶）的批准。这为我们在第二季度晚些时候获得整个欧盟的批准奠定了良好的基础，目前我们只需等待监管机构的进一步决定。此外，我们在中国也获得了一些批准。虽然尚未完全获得全面批准，但我们正在与中国的监管机构合作，希望能在第三季度获得批准。随着这些批准的到来，我们预计现有车队的软件使用将会更加广泛，并且我们车辆的需求也将逐步增加。
With all this in mind, we have evolved our vehicles sales strategy, where we now emphasize FSD as a product and vehicles as only the delivery mechanism. As we have noted previously, the energy storage business is inherently lumpy, tied to customer deployment timelines. In Q1, we deployed 8.8 gigawatt-hour of energy storage, a 38% sequential decline. However, we still expect 2026 deployments to be higher than 2025.
考虑到这些因素，我们已经改进了我们的车辆销售策略，现在我们更强调将FSD（全自动驾驶）作为一个产品，车辆仅作为其交付方式。正如我们之前提到的，储能业务本身波动性较大，与客户的部署时间表紧密相关。在第一季度，我们部署了8.8吉瓦时的储能，环比下降了38%。然而，我们仍然预计2026年的部署量将高于2025年。
We set yet another record with gross margins in this business over 39.5% due to some one-time benefits from certain tariff recognitions of more than $250 million from certain tariffs which we had paid in prior quarters. On a normalized basis, we continue to expect energy compression from here with increasing competition and tariff impacts. As previously discussed, tariffs in this business can have outsized impacts as most of the battery cells are procured from China. Our order backlog for this business is robust, and we are doing our best to build not just based on existing demand, but also on expected demand.
由于某些超过2.5亿美元的关税返还，我们在这个业务上创造了新的记录，毛利率超过了39.5%。在正常情况下，由于竞争加剧和关税影响，我们预计能源压缩将会继续。如之前所提到的，这个业务中的关税可能会产生较大的影响，因为大部分电池单元都是从中国采购的。我们的订单积压相当强劲，我们不仅根据现有的需求进行生产，还在努力满足预期的需求。
Services and others improved sequentially from 8.8% to 9.2%. This includes a collection of efforts meant to support our customers like service centers, used cars, paid supercharging, part sales, insurance, and even our robot taxi business. We're making deliberate investments in the infrastructure to help the robot taxi in the future. We grew the robot taxi fleet quarter over quarter, and we expect to keep ramping the fleet as we accelerate and get into other geographies.
服务和其他方面的表现按顺序从8.8%提高到9.2%。这包括一系列旨在支持客户的努力，比如服务中心、二手车、付费超级充电、零件销售、保险，甚至我们的机器人出租车业务。我们正在有计划地在基础设施上进行投资，以支持未来的机器人出租车业务。我们的机器人出租车队每季度都在增长，并期望在加速发展和进入其他地区时继续扩张。
On operating expenses side, we did increase sequentially from a full quarter stock-based compensation expense for the 2025 CO compensation plan for which one milestone is still deemed probable. Additionally, our spend on AI-related initiatives, including expense on development of our own AI-5 chip and new products like Cybercap, Semi, Optimus, and Megablock, etc., continue to be at elevated levels, and we expect this trend to continue for the full year 2026.
在运营费用方面，由于2025年CO薪酬计划中的一个里程碑仍然被认为有可能达成，我们在整整一个季度内的股票薪酬费用确实有所增加。此外，我们在人工智能相关项目上的支出依然很高，其中包括开发我们自己的AI-5芯片以及一些新产品，如Cybercap、Semi、Optimus和Megablock等。我们预计这种高支出趋势将在2026年全年持续。
Net income was impacted from mark-to-market charges on our Bitcoin holdings, which depreciated 22% as compared to the last quarter, and the unfavorable impact of FX primarily from our large intercompany borrowings. On free cash flow, we ended the quarter with just over $1.4 billion. As Elon mentioned, we are in a very big capital investment phase, which is going to start now and would last a couple of years. So based on that, our current expectation for 2026 is over $25 billion of CapEx.
净收入受到了我们持有的比特币的市值调整影响，比特币价格与上季度相比下跌了22%，以及由于我们的大额公司内部借款而导致的不利外汇影响。关于自由现金流，我们在本季度结束时拥有刚刚超过14亿美元的资金。正如埃隆提到的，我们正处于一个非常大的资本投资阶段，这个阶段将从现在开始并持续几年。因此，基于这些情况，我们目前对2026年的资本支出预期超过250亿美元。
And, you know, just to remind you, we are paying for six factories, which we're going to go into operation. Some have already started, some would go into operation later part of this year. We're further increasing our investment in AI-related initiatives, including the AI infrastructure to support Robotaxi and the launch of Optimus. We've already started placing orders for the research semiconductor fab in Austin and for solar manufacturing equipment.
提醒一下，我们正在为六家工厂付费，这些工厂计划投入运营。其中一些已经开始运营，还有一些将在今年晚些时候开始运营。我们还在进一步增加对人工智能相关项目的投资，包括支持无人出租车（Robotaxi）和Optimus发布的AI基础设施投资。我们已经开始在奥斯汀的半导体研究工厂和太阳能制造设备上进行订单。
While this may seem a lot, and we will have the impact of negative free cash flow for the rest of the year, we believe this is the right strategy to position the company for the next era. We'll make such investments in a very capital efficient manner. We are actively working on our mission of building a future of amazing abundance. However, that requires not just a lot of investment, but an immense amount of execution. The future is going to be great.
尽管这看起来可能很多，并且我们将在今年余下的时间里面临负自由现金流的影响，但我们相信这是将公司定位于下一个时代的正确策略。我们将以非常高效的方式进行这些投资。我们正积极致力于构建一个充满惊人丰盛的未来。不过，这不仅需要大量的投资，还需要极强的执行力。未来将会非常美好。
And the whole Tesla team is rising to the occasion to make this a reality. I would like to end by thanking the Tesla team, our customers, investors, and vendors for having confidence in us on this journey. Thanks. Thank you very much, Vebov. Now we're going to go to investor questions, starting with a question from say.com. The first question is, when will we have the Optimus 3 reveal, which we already touched on? But the rest of the question is, when will Optimus production start since we ended the Model X and S production earlier this mid-year?
整个特斯拉团队正积极行动，将这一目标变为现实。在此，我想对特斯拉团队、我们的客户、投资者和供应商表示感谢，感谢他们在这个过程中对我们的信任。谢谢。非常感谢，Vebov。现在我们将开始回答投资者的问题，首先是来自say.com的一个问题。第一个问题是，我们什么时候能看到Optimus 3的展示，这个我们已经提到过了。但问题的其余部分是，由于我们在今年年中已经停止了Model X和S的生产，那么Optimus的生产什么时候开始？
And then what's the expected Optimus production rate exiting this year? And what are the initial targeted skills? Well, as I was saying, what we found is that when we've unveiled various Optimus versions, we found out how competitors literally do a frame-by-frame analysis and copy everything we're doing. So I think we want to push the Optimus 3 unveil maybe closer to production. Startup production is, we're assuming is somewhere around the late July, August timeframe.
今年年底，Optimus的预期生产速度是多少？初期目标技能有哪些？正如我之前所说，我们发现每次我们发布不同版本的Optimus时，竞争对手都会逐帧分析并复制我们的工作。所以我认为我们希望将Optimus 3的发布时间安排得更接近于生产。按照我们的假设，启动生产的时间大约是在七月底或八月期间。
And I mean, just to inject some reality into these questions, since these questions are not -- whoever does this question does not fully understand what happens with the production line. The last SX production will be in early May. But you have to look at the entire upstream portion of the production line. So you have to start with, you know, cells, battery packs, you know, motor production, all the parts production. And so we've been dismantling the SX production line, you know, from the more base level parts, the more basic level parts to, as you get to larger sub-assemblies, you start dismantling the line from the small parts first, not from the final assembly first.
我来简单解释一下这些问题的现实情况。提问者可能并不完全了解生产线的运作。最后一批SX的生产将在五月初完成。但要看到整个生产线的上游部分，从电池、电池组、电机生产到所有零部件的生产，都需要考虑在内。我们是按照从基础零件开始的顺序来拆解SX生产线的，而不是从最终组装开始。所以，我们是先从小零件开始逐步拆解，然后才到较大的子组件。
So the final assembly line will -- that'll be dismantled next month and after the last of the SX vehicles done. Now, you can't dismantle some gigantic production line, like, overnight. It takes at least a few months to do so. And then you've got to install a new production line. And you've got to provide all of the wiring and communication, you know, test out the machines of the new production line for Optimus. So that also takes several months. So, frankly, if we're able to go from stopping production on one line, dismantling that entire line, reinstalling a whole new line, and turning that on in a matter of four months, that is an insanely fast speed.
因此，最终的装配线将在下个月拆除，等最后一辆SX车型生产完成后。你不能在一夜之间拆除一个巨大的生产线。这样做至少需要几个月的时间。然后，还需要安装新的生产线，提供所有的线路和通信设备，并测试新生产线的机器，确保能用于Optimus。这也需要几个月的时间。坦率地说，如果我们能够在四个月内，从停止一条生产线，到拆除整个生产线，再到重新安装并启用一条全新的生产线，那将是一个非常快的速度。
I don't think any other company on Earth has ever done that before, just to put things into perspective and inject some reality into the situation here. I don't know what the production rate of Optimus will be this year. It is impossible to predict these things. The -- when you have a brand-new product and an entirely new production line, and you have 10,000 unique items, all of which have to go right into ramp production. It will move as fast -- it will move as fast as the least lucky, slowest, dumbest part in the entire 10,000. And this is -- Optimus is a completely new product with a completely new production line. So, it's -- it's just literally impossible to predict.
我认为地球上没有其他公司曾经这样做过，这样说只是为了让大家更好地理解当前的情况，并添加一些现实的考量。今年Optimus的产量将会是多少，我也不确定。这种事情无法预测。当你有一个全新的产品和一条全新的生产线时，需要有1万个独特的部件都要顺利投入生产。整个进度将取决于这1万个部件中最不幸运、最慢、最难搞定的那个。因此，Optimus是一个全新的产品，配有全新的生产线，所以实在是无法预测生产进度。
Except that I think it will be quite slow at first, as we iron out the 10,000-plus unique items that have to be sold for Optimus to reach volume production. Initial skills will be -- obviously, we're going to start with simple skills in the factory, and then build up from there. Great. Thank you, Elon. The next question is: What milestones are you targeting for unsupervised FSD and robo-taxi expansion beyond Austin this year? And how will that drive recurring revenue? Well, we certainly hope to be -- have unsupervised FSD or robo-taxi operating, you know, in -- I don't know. -- a dozen or so states by the end of this year.
我认为一开始的速度会比较慢，因为我们需要处理1万多个独特商品的销售，才能让Optimus达成量产目标。最初的技能显然会比较简单，先从工厂里的简单技能开始，然后逐步提升。好的，非常感谢你，Elon。下一个问题是：今年你们在无监督全自驾(FSD)和自动出租车在奥斯汀以外的扩展方面，有哪些目标？这将如何推动经常性收入？嗯，我们希望到今年年底能在大约十几个州实现无监督全自驾或自动出租车的运营。
Initially, you know, we're taking a very -- we're taking a very cautious approach to the rollout here. Like, we do -- we haven't had any injuries and certainly no fatalities to date with the unsupervised -- unsupervised FSD and robo-taxi expansion. We want to keep it that way. And so -- I don't -- I think probably -- unsupervised FSD or robo-taxi revenue will not be super material this year. But I do think it will be material -- it'll be material probably in a significant way next year. Great. Thank you very much. The next question is: When do you expect FSD unsupervised to reach customer cars?
最初，你知道的，我们在这里的推广采取了非常谨慎的态度。目前，无人监管的FSD和无人出租车扩张没有出现任何受伤或死亡事件，我们希望保持这种状况。所以，我认为今年无人监管的FSD或无人出租车的收入不会很显著。但我确实认为，明年这方面的收入可能会有重大提升。好的，非常感谢。下一个问题是：您预计无人监管的FSD何时会进入客户的车辆？
I'm just guessing here, but probably in the fourth quarter. It's -- it's difficult to release this, like, to everyone -- everywhere all at once, because we -- we do want to make sure that they're not unique situations in a city that -- you know, particularly complex intersection or -- you know, actually, they tend to be places where -- where people get into accidents a lot. Because -- because they're just -- you know, perhaps there's an -- like I said, an unsafe intersection or bad road markings or -- you know, a lot of weather challenges.
我只是猜测，可能会在第四季度推出。要在所有地方同时发布这项内容确实很困难，因为我们希望确保在某个城市中没有特别复杂的交叉路口，或者说这些地方经常发生事故。因为可能是由于不安全的路口、糟糕的路标或者天气挑战多的原因。
So -- so I think we would release unsupervised gradually to the customer fleet -- you know, to -- yeah -- as we feel like a particular geography is confirmed to be safe. Great. And the next question is: How will Hardware 3 cars reach unsupervised FSD? Unfortunately, Hardware 3 -- I wish it were otherwise -- but Hardware 3 simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD. You know, we -- we did think at one point it -- it would have that, but -- relative to -- to Hardware 4, it has only one-eighth of the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4.
所以，我认为我们会逐步将无人监督的系统推出给客户——在我们确认某个地区的安全性后。好的，下一个问题是：硬件3的车辆如何实现无人监督的FSD（全自动驾驶）？不幸的是，硬件3并不具备实现无人监督FSD的能力。我希望情况不是这样，但相对于硬件4，硬件3的内存带宽只有硬件4的八分之一。起初我们确实认为它有这个能力，但实际上并没有。
And -- and -- and memory bandwidth is one of the key -- uh -- elements needed for unsupervised FSD. It's just generally a thing that's needed for -- for AI. If you're -- if you're -- if you're doing an auto-aggressive transformer, memory bandwidth is the true point. So -- um -- you know, for -- for customers that have bought FSD, um -- what we're offering is essentially a -- a trade-in -- like a -- discounted trade-in -- for cars that have -- um -- AI-4 hardware. Um -- and -- um -- and -- and we'll also be offering the ability to -- uh -- upgrade the car to replace the -- uh -- computer.
内存带宽是实现无人监督全自动驾驶（FSD）所需的关键因素之一。这也是人工智能所普遍需要的。如果你在进行自回归变压器的处理，内存带宽是至关重要的。因此，对于已经购买了FSD的客户，我们基本上提供了一种折价换购的方案，适用于那些配备AI-4硬件的汽车。同时，我们也将提供升级服务，让客户可以更换汽车上的计算机。
And you also need to replace the cameras, unfortunately, um -- to go to Hardware 4. Um -- so -- to do this efficiently, we're -- we're -- we're gonna have to set up -- uh -- like -- kind of micro factories or small factories, uh -- in major -- um -- metropolitan areas. In order to do it efficiently. If it's -- because if it's done just -- uh -- at the service center, it's -- it -- it is extremely slow to do so. And -- and -- inefficient. So we -- we basically need, like, many production lines to -- to make the change. Um -- and, um -- I -- I -- I do think, over time, it's gonna make sense for us to convert all Hardware 3 cars to -- Hardware 4. Uh -- because -- that's what enables them to -- uh -- enter the robotaxi fleet and -- and -- and have unsupervised FSD.
不幸的是，你还需要更换摄像头，以升级到硬件4。为了高效地完成这一任务，我们打算在主要的都市地区设立微型工厂或小型工厂。因为如果只在服务中心进行更换，效率会非常低。因此，我们基本上需要建立多条生产线来进行这个转换。此外，我确实认为，随着时间推移，将所有硬件3的汽车升级到硬件4是有意义的，因为这将让它们有可能进入无人驾驶出租车车队，并实现无人监管的全自动驾驶。
Uh -- and -- for -- for what it's worth, um -- in the meantime, we're gonna also release, uh -- a V14 version for Hardware 3. Uh -- this will be a distilled version of the same V14 software that we released for Hardware 4. Uh -- and people should be able to -- start the drives from Park State, uh -- and basically have all the features that, uh -- V14, uh -- for Hardware 4 has. And that's expected to come, uh -- end of June. Great. Thank you very much. Uh -- the next question is, uh -- what enabled you to finish the AI5 tape-out early? And were there any changes to the original vision? Last week, Elon said AI5 will go into Optimus and the supercomputer, but one month ago said it would go into the robotaxi.
呃——关于——这个嘛，嗯——与此同时，我们还将发布一个适用于硬件3的V14版本。呃——这将是我们为硬件4发布的V14软件的精简版本。呃——用户应该可以从停车状态开始驾驶，呃——基本上拥有V14硬件4版本的所有功能。预计将在6月底发布。非常感谢。呃——下一个问题是，呃——是什么让你们提前完成AI5的制版？是否对最初的构想进行了任何修改？上周，Elon说AI5将应用于Optimus和超级计算机，但一个月前曾说过会用于自动驾驶出租车。
Has AI5 been dropped from the vehicle roadmap? Well, uh -- the reason AI5 tape-out finished early was because the team worked incredibly hard to make it happen. And, um -- just over time, we -- we -- we -- we gathered a lot of momentum. Um -- but we -- we did have to work every weekend for six months straight, including every -- every holiday. So, it was, uh -- a lot of sacrifice by the team, and -- and I was there, of course, myself, every weekend. Uh -- and, uh -- you know, and -- fortunately, we didn't encounter any major -- we didn't make any major mistakes that were -- at least that we're aware of that required, um -- pushing out the tape-out.
AI5是否已经从车辆路线图中删除了？嗯，呃——AI5的设计定型之所以提前完成，是因为团队非常努力地推动了这个进程。而且，嗯——随着时间的推移，我们积累了很多势头。但是，我们确实连续六个月每个周末都在加班工作，包括每个假期。所以，这对团队来说是很大的牺牲，我当然也每个周末都在现场。嗯，幸运的是，我们没有遇到任何需要推迟设计定型的重大错误，至少我们没有意识到有这样的错误。
So, the -- the -- the team just did a great job and worked incredibly hard is the reason. Um -- yeah, I -- I -- I do expect that AI5 will go into Optimus and into the data center. Um -- because it -- it -- it's -- it's -- it's looking like we'll be able to achieve, um -- unsupervised self-driving with, uh -- AI4 that is, uh -- far greater than human safety levels. So, um -- which means it's -- it's -- it's -- it's not -- certainly not immediately needed in -- in the car. Um -- I -- I -- at some point, I think it will make sense for us to switch to AI5 in the car, but that's -- but that's -- but there's not a -- a pressing issue to do so.
所以，团队做得非常出色，他们非常努力地工作是主要原因。嗯，我确实预计AI5会应用到Optimus和数据中心。因为看起来我们能够通过AI4实现无人监督的自动驾驶，其安全水平远超人类。因此，这意味着目前在汽车中并不紧迫地需要AI5。我认为在某个时间点，我们切换到AI5是合理的，但这不是一个紧急的问题。
Um -- so -- but at some point, the AI4 hardware is gonna get, like, so old that it's like, okay, uh -- you know, the only reason they keep them -- you know, the only reason they're keeping the factory open is for AI4. Um -- we -- we are planning an AI4, uh -- upgrade, uh -- to use, uh -- newer generation RAM. Uh -- sort of -- it'll -- it'll go from, uh -- 16 gigabytes to, I think, 32 gigabytes, uh -- per SOC. So, a total of 64 gigabytes, um, and, um, probably a 10% increase in compute -- in -- in -- in -- in sort of -- in -- trillions of operations per second and in memory bandwidth.
嗯——所以——但在某个时刻，AI4 的硬件会变得非常老旧，以至于会觉得，好吧，呃——你知道，他们继续使用它的唯一理由——他们保持工厂运营的唯一理由就是为了 AI4。嗯——我们——我们计划对 AI4 进行升级，呃——使用更新一代的 RAM。呃——其变化大概是从 16GB 升级到 32GB，每个 SoC 总共 64GB，嗯，呃，计算能力大概会提高 10%。这种提升是在每秒万亿次操作和内存带宽方面。
So, that's, uh -- AI4.1 -- AI4 Plus probably, uh -- goes into production -- middle of next year, I think. Depends -- it's -- it's, uh -- depends on -- on, uh -- Samsung's doing the modifications for us, so it sort of depends on -- on when they're able to finish that -- finish those modifications and bring it to production. Great. Uh -- the next question is, uh -- now that FSD has been approved in the Netherlands and is expected to launch across Europe this summer, can you discuss your robotaxi strategy for the region?
所以，AI4.1，也就是AI4 Plus，可能会在明年年中投入生产。我想这要取决于——嗯，这取决于三星正在为我们做的修改工作。因此，这在某种程度上要看他们什么时候能完成这些修改并开始生产。好的，下一个问题是，现在全自动驾驶（FSD）已经在荷兰得到批准，并预计将在今年夏天在整个欧洲推出，你能谈谈你们在该地区的机器人出租车战略吗？
Well, we're probably jumping the gun here on, um -- robotaxi in Europe, since, uh -- it is, uh -- took us an immense amount of time just to get supervised self-driving approved in Europe. And, uh -- you know, these, uh -- we don't control the regulators. You know, it's, uh -- we're -- we push as hard as we can, but -- but that's -- it's ultimately up to the -- to the -- uh -- governments in Europe and the EU to decide what -- uh -- what to do. Um -- so, uh -- yeah, as it is -- we're -- we're -- we've only been approved in the Netherlands. We expect to be improved -- approved in a lot of other countries.
嗯，我们可能在欧洲的无人出租车问题上有点过于激进了。因为，在欧洲，仅仅获得监督驾驶的批准就花了我们大量的时间。而且，我们并不控制相关的监管机构。我们尽全力推动，但最终的决策权在于欧洲各国政府和欧盟。目前我们只在荷兰获得了批准，但我们预计将在许多其他国家获得批准。
And I think the, um -- supervised FSD goes to Brussels for EU review, um -- in May. Yeah. So, um -- and obviously, then, the -- the next thing beyond that is to, um -- aim for un-supervised self-driving or robotaxi in Europe. Uh -- I actually don't know what the timeframe for that is -- and -- and would be somewhat at the mercy of the regulators as to when that approval would -- would take place. And from a technology standpoint, um -- what we deployed in Netherlands and Europe is the same, uh -- exact architecture, uh -- and the training procedure and so on, except it had more Europe data. Um -- and I suspect the same thing will be true for unsupervised FSD as well. Whatever we used to solve in the U.S. will work in other places in the rest of the world, too, provided we were able to add the data from the local regions.
我认为，那个，呃，受监督的完全自动驾驶（FSD）将在五月份前往布鲁塞尔接受欧盟的审核。是的。所以，呃，显然，接下来的事情是，呃，目标是在欧洲实现无人监督的自动驾驶或机器人出租车。呃，我其实不知道具体的时间框是什么，而且在某种程度上还要取决于监管机构何时批准。从技术角度来看，呃，我们在荷兰和欧洲部署的技术架构、训练过程等都和其他地方一样，只是增加了更多欧洲的数据。呃，我想对于无人监督的FSD来说也是如此。只要我们能够添加当地区域的数据，我们在美国解决方案，在其他地方应该也能适用。
Great. The next question is, uh -- given the recent NHTSA incident filings, can you update us on the robotaxi safety data? If safety validation remains the primary bottleneck, why not deploy thousands of vehicles to accelerate removal of the safety driver? And Ashok, do you want to take that? Yeah. Uh -- we are increasing the amount of, uh -- our QA fleet, but we also want to use, uh -- the customer fleet to, um -- give us, uh -- the useful metrics back so that we can scale it safely. Like you don't mention, we are absolutely focused on safety. Uh -- and so far, we have zero, uh -- incidents, um -- and that's what the NHTSA filing also shows.
好的。下一个问题是，鉴于最近NHTSA事件的报告，您能否更新一下我们关于自动驾驶出租车的安全数据？如果安全验证仍然是主要瓶颈，为什么不部署成千上万辆车辆以加速移除安全驾驶员？Ashok，你要回答这个问题吗？好的。我们正在增加质保车队的数量，但我们也希望利用客户车队为我们提供有用的数据指标，以便我们能够安全地扩大规模。正如你所提到的，我们绝对注重安全。目前为止，我们没有任何事故，这也是NHTSA报告所显示的。
Uh -- in addition to, um -- safety, we are also solving some of these, uh -- so-called scaling issues. For example, you do not want the robotaxi to be stuck blocking intersections, uh -- or don't want to be dropping people off at, uh -- slightly incorrect locations and so on. So we are simultaneously solving the long tail of safety, uh -- by monitoring the metrics across the entire Tesla customer vehicle fleet, which are, you know, uh -- is close to driving 10 billion miles on FSD, uh -- in the next, uh -- few weeks. Uh -- and also scaling up the amount of QA fleet that we have across the entire U.S. to accelerate our safety validation, uh -- while also scaling, uh -- the, uh -- rest of the factors that can, um -- you know, throttle the, um -- increase of unsupportability.
呃，除了安全问题之外，我们还在解决一些所谓的扩展问题。比如说，你肯定不希望自动驾驶出租车卡在十字路口，或者把乘客放在不太准确的位置等等。因此，我们在通过监控整个特斯拉客户车辆队列的指标来同时解决安全的长尾问题，呃，这些车辆在未来几周内将在自动驾驶模式下行驶近100亿英里。同时，我们正在扩大整个美国的质量保证车队，以加速我们的安全验证。同时，我们也在扩展其他可能限制支持能力增长的因素。
Uh -- increase of unsupportability vehicles. All right. Uh -- the next question is -- is V, uh -- 14.3 still the last piece of the puzzle to enable, uh -- large-scale unsupervised FSD and robotaxi, or do we have to wait until V15? Well, um, you know, I -- I -- I -- I -- I -- I think 14.3 is -- is -- is -- is last piece of the puzzle, uh -- for unsupervised FSD. Now, the question is, like, degrees of safety, um -- like, how -- safety and convenience, I suppose. Um -- we -- we have a lot of known improvements, um -- like, major -- architectural improvements that we know would improve the probability of safety significantly.
嗯——增加了难以承受的交通工具。好吧。呃——下一个问题是，呃——14.3版本是否仍然是实现大规模无人监督全自动驾驶和机器人出租车的最后一块拼图，还是我们必须等到15版本？嗯，我——我觉得14.3确实是无人监督全自动驾驶的最后一块拼图。现在，问题在于安全程度，比如安全性和便捷性。我想说，我们有不少已知的改进，比如一些我们知道会显著提高安全概率的重大架构改进。
So, I think it's -- it's not going to make sense for us to deploy, you know, unsupervised FSD or robotaxi at large-scale when we -- we know that there are major architectural improvements to the software that can improve safety. Um -- so -- so, I think we -- we're -- we're going to want to, uh -- finish writing that software, validate it, and release it before, uh -- going to large-scale unsupervised FSD, depending on what large-scale means. I mean, we -- we -- we are -- we -- of course, as I mentioned earlier, uh -- doing unsupervised FSD in three cities, and we'll expand on it to, like I said, probably a dozen states or more later this year.
所以，我认为在我们知道软件有重大结构性改进可以提高安全性的情况下，现在大规模部署无人监管的全自动驾驶或机器人出租车是没有意义的。嗯，所以我觉得我们会想先完成这部分软件的开发，验证其有效性，并在发布后再考虑大规模推广无人监管的全自动驾驶。关于大规模的定义，还需要具体情况而定。就像我之前提到的，我们已经在三个城市进行了无人监管的全自动驾驶测试，今年晚些时候很可能会扩展到十几个州甚至更多。
Um -- so, kind of depends on what your definition of large-scale is. Um -- but I -- I -- I do think -- it -- it -- it wouldn't -- it wouldn't be -- right for us to -- go to -- go to -- go to, like, very large-scale and to advise FSD when we know that there are software improvements in the pipeline that would improve safety. Yep, and I'd like to note that the version of robotaxi that's running in Austin, uh -- Dallas -- uh -- Houston, et cetera, those are essentially 14.3 variants. Um -- uh -- and -- it's obviously, uh -- safe that -- that's why we're able to launch in those cities, and we continue to expand based on the V13 -- uh -- sorry -- V14.3 base, um -- for a while, until V15 lands.
嗯，这要看你对“大规模”的定义是什么。不过，我觉得，如果我们知道有软件改进计划可以提高安全性的话，就不应该去推行非常大规模的FSD。是的，我要强调一下，在奥斯汀、达拉斯、休斯敦等地运行的robotaxi版本基本上都是14.3的变体。这显然是安全的，这就是为什么我们能够在那些城市推出，并且基于V14.3版本继续扩展，直到V15上线。
And V15 is going to be a major upgrade. Yeah. Great. Thank you. Um -- the next two questions we've already answered, uh -- about robotaxi, uh -- rollout, um -- and, uh -- the data that -- that we're observing. So, uh -- we will end on the last question, which is, uh -- what is Tesla doing to scale the energy generation business with solar? Residential roof deployments have stalled. Will Tesla move to regional solar and battery farms, perhaps coupled to superchargers? Uh -- will -- we deploy solar through utilities?
V15将会是一个重大的升级。好的，非常感谢。接下来的两个问题我们已经回答过了，关于自动驾驶出租车的推出以及我们观察到的数据。因此，我们将以最后一个问题结束，那就是特斯拉在扩大太阳能能源业务方面做了些什么？住宅屋顶太阳能的部署已经停滞不前。特斯拉会采取措施建立地区性的太阳能和电池农场，并可能与超级充电站结合吗？我们会通过公用事业公司来部署太阳能吗？
Yeah. The overall U.S. residential solar market is going through a bit of a correction after the loss of the homeowner tax credit last year. But we still see strong demand shaping up for the second half of the year. Tesla introduced a lease product this year that allows us to capture the tax credit ourselves and offer competitive pricing for homeowners. We have also debuted our own solar panel with superior performance and aesthetics, as well as our own best-in-class mounting system that gives us a fully integrated home energy ecosystem. We believe -- we strongly believe that solar and storage markets globally will continue to grow at both residential and utility scale, and we will continue to invest in that growth.
好的。目前，美国住宅太阳能市场在经历一些调整，因为去年的房主税收抵免优惠已经取消。但我们预计下半年市场需求依然强劲。今年，特斯拉推出了一种租赁产品，让我们能自己获取税收抵免，并为房主提供有竞争力的价格。此外，我们推出了性能和外观更优的自有太阳能电池板，以及顶尖的安装系统，使我们能够提供一个全面整合的家庭能源生态系统。我们坚信，全球范围内的太阳能和储能市场将在住宅和公用事业领域继续增长，我们将继续为这一增长进行投资。
Great. Thank you, Mike. Uh -- so now we're going to move on to analyst questions. Uh -- the first question is going to come from, uh -- Will Stein at Truist. Uh -- Will, please feel free to unmute yourself when you're ready. Uh -- can you hear me? Yes, yes, we can. Great, great. Thanks for taking my question. Um, considering the various parties involved in the TerraFab project, um, I'm hoping you can provide, uh, some details for investors about which party is going to take responsibility for each aspect of that project, funding it, designing it, uh, building it, operating, taking production, and the like. Uh, we'd love to hear some more details.
好的，谢谢你，Mike。现在我们要进入分析师提问环节。第一个问题来自Truist的Will Stein。Will，当你准备好时，请解除静音。你能听到我吗？是的，我们听得见。好的，感谢你接受我的提问。考虑到TerraFab项目涉及的各方，我希望你能为投资者提供一些细节，说明各方在项目的不同方面将承担什么责任，包括资助、设计、建造、运营、生产等。我们很想了解更多的细节。
Yeah, so we're -- we're still working out the, um, the details of the TerraFab, uh, deployment. Um, in -- in the near term, uh, Tesla will be, um, building the, uh, the research fab, uh, on our Giga Texas campus. Um, this is something we expect to be probably, you know, a $3 billion-ish initiative, um, and capable of maybe a few thousand wafers per month. Uh, but it's really intended to try out ideas, the research fab, um, both -- both in terms of maybe -- we have some ideas for improving the fund -- fundamental technology of how chips are made, um, and some of the -- there's some new physics we'd like to test out, um, but we also want to test out the ability to, um, to see if something is working in production.
好的，目前我们仍在敲定TerraFab部署的细节。在近期，特斯拉将在我们的德州超级工厂园区建设一个研究工厂。我们预计这将是一个大约30亿美元的项目，可能每月生产几千片晶圆。这个研究工厂的目的主要是尝试一些新想法，一方面是改善芯片制造的基础技术，我们有一些改进的设想，同时也希望测试一些新的物理理论。另一方面，我们还想看看这些新技术在实际生产中是否有效。
So you need kind of like a few thousand wafers starts a month, uh, to make sure that, uh, a production process is sound. Um, and -- and, uh -- and then SpaceX is, uh, uh, gonna take care of, like, the initial phase of the -- the scaled-up TerraFab. Um, and, um, that's -- that's what we've figured out thus far. Um, um, you know, any -- any kind of intercompany thing has to be approved by both the SpaceX and Tesla Board of Directors. It's got to go through a conflict resolution. It's -- it's kind of a lot of -- unfortunately, a lot of complexity, because, uh, we've got to make sure Tesla shareholders are served, and SpaceX shareholders are served, and strike the right balance there.
为了确保生产过程的稳定，你每个月需要几千片晶圆作为起始材料。然后，SpaceX 将负责规模化 TerraFab 的初始阶段。这是我们目前确定的方案。任何公司之间的合作都需要得到 SpaceX 和 Tesla 董事会的批准，并且需要通过冲突解决机制。遗憾的是，这涉及到很多复杂的程序，因为我们必须确保既能满足 Tesla 股东的利益，也能满足 SpaceX 股东的利益，并在其中找到一个合适的平衡点。
Uh, so it -- it takes a while to work through the -- the -- the kind of independent director, uh, reviews on -- on this. So that -- that's basically what we've figured out thus far, is Tesla's doing the research fab, SpaceX's doing the initial part of the large-scale TerraFab, and, um -- and then we've got to figure out the rest. Yeah, and -- And what about Intel's involvement? Uh, yeah. So, uh, Intel is, uh, excited to partner with us on, um, the -- some of the core manufacturing technologies. Um, so, uh, we -- we plan to use Intel's 14A, uh, uh, uh, process, uh, which is, uh, state-of-the-art, and, in fact, not yet totally complete. Um, so -- but, uh, given that -- by the time TerraFab scales up, uh, 14A will be -- probably -- fairly mature, or ready for prime time. Um, 14A seems like the right move.
嗯，所以在这方面需要花一些时间来进行独立董事的审核。目前我们了解到的情况是，特斯拉正在进行研究工厂的部分，而SpaceX正在开展大规模TerraFab的初期工作，然后我们需要搞清楚剩下的事情。那么，英特尔的参与情况如何呢？嗯，英特尔对能与我们在一些核心制造技术上合作感到很兴奋。我们计划使用英特尔的14A工艺，这是一项最先进的技术，实际上还没有完全完成。不过，考虑到等到TerraFab规模化的时候，14A可能就会比较成熟，或准备好投入使用。使用14A工艺看起来是正确的选择。
Um, and, uh, we -- we have a great relationship with Intel. Um, a lot of respect for, um, the CEO, the CTO, and the -- the new team there. Um, so, we think it's -- it's going to be a -- a great partnership. Yeah, and the other thing on the research, Fab, I think we've said it before, we plan to do memory, logic, everything in the same place, including masks, because we want to have a quick iteration loop so that we can see and basically scale the technologies which we're trying to bring up.
嗯，我们与英特尔的关系非常好，对他们的CEO、CTO以及新团队都非常尊重。所以，我们认为这将是一个很好的合作伙伴关系。是的，关于研究方面的另外一件事，我想我们之前提到过，我们计划在同一个地方进行存储、逻辑和所有其他的开发，包括掩膜，因为我们希望有一个快速的迭代流程，以便能够看到并基本上扩展我们正在尝试提升的技术。
Yeah, I -- I think this will be unique in the world, or at least I'm not aware of any -- a place where you'd -- you have, um, the lithography mask, uh, creation, the -- and -- and then logic, memory, and packaging, in -- in -- under one roof, in one building. Um, that -- that's about the fastest I could possibly imagine doing recursive, uh, research and development, and -- and being able to try out some pretty radical ideas, some of which have, you know, you know, it's kind of long shot stuff, but if there's some of these long shots pan out, would be radical improvements in the way chefs work.
是的，我认为这在世界上是独一无二的，至少我不知道有任何地方能做到这一点。在一个屋檐下，一个建筑内，你可以进行光刻掩模的创建，还有逻辑、存储和封装的过程。这是我能想象到的最快的递归研究和开发方式，并能够尝试一些非常激进的想法，其中有些是，需要好好运气的事情，但如果其中一些大胆的尝试成功的话，将会对厨师工作的方式带来革命性的改进。
Great. Uh, the next question is going to come from Pierre at New Street. Uh, Pierre, please feel free to unmute yourself. Uh, hey, thanks a lot for taking my question. Um, a quick one first on, uh, FSD adoption. So you have 180,000 new, uh, new users, paying users this quarter, and I compare that to your overall install base. It might be 15%, but then if I shrink that to the U.S. or to North America, where most of them are, it's probably more like 30, 35%. And I'm trying to -- and I compare that to -- you probably sold about 100,000 cars in North America in the quarter, so you're winning twice more, uh, FSD users, and you're selling cars. Um, and then if I add to that picture of the fact that I guess it's mostly hardware for, uh, owners who subscribe to FSD, it sounds like most drivers in North America who have hardware for would already be using FSD. Is that the right way to think about it, and the kind of, like, success FSD is meeting today? Is that -- is that the right way to think about it?
好的，接下来的问题来自New Street的Pierre。Pierre，请自行取消静音。嗯，非常感谢回答我的问题。首先是关于FSD（全自动驾驶）采用情况的一个简单问题。本季度你们有18万名新付费用户，我把这个数字和你们的总体安装基数比较，可能是占了15%。但如果我缩小到美国或北美地区，大部分用户都在这边，可能比例更接近于30%到35%。我在想，与此同时，你们可能本季度在北美卖了大约10万辆汽车，所以FSD用户的增长率是你们汽车销售的一倍。此外，如果我考虑到大多数订阅FSD的用户已有硬件设备，这意味着大多数北美的车主如果有硬件设备可能已经在使用FSD。这样的理解和今天FSD所取得的成功吻合吗？这样的理解对吗？
Yeah, I think you're thinking about it the right way, Pierre. And the other thing which I'll share is that, uh, you know, you can't just look at one quarter versus the other quarter in terms of churn. But we are actually seeing churn of subscribers also coming down, which, again, is a reflection of the product is getting better. And, obviously, if subscriptions are going up, that is a good metric. The other thing also to note is that we are seeing customers actually drive longer, which, again, you could correlate it. That's why you have lesser churn, because people are liking the product. And if -- I mean, I've said this before, if I just use my own personal behavior, right, I literally get in the car, I press a button, and it just goes. And earlier I used to park. Now I don't even have to park. And that is the experience which we want everybody to gain. And that's why you're starting seeing it in the numbers come through.
是的，皮埃尔，我认为你的思考方向是正确的。还有一点我要分享的是，你不能只看一个季度与另一个季度之间的用户流失率的比较。实际上，我们看到用户流失率确实在下降，这也反映出产品在变得更好。而且，订阅量的增加也是一个好指标。还有一点值得注意的是，我们看到用户的使用时长在增加，这可以和用户流失率的减少联系起来，因为人们更喜欢这个产品。我之前提到过这个，我自己的例子是，我坐进车里，按个按钮就出发了。以前我需要找地方停车，现在都不需要，这就是我们希望所有人都能获得的体验。这也是为什么你开始在数据中看到这些变化的原因。
Excellent. Thank you. And if I may, maybe a quick follow-up, completely different. It's more on the Optimus architecture. And you talked about the partnership with XAI and Grock. And I was wondering if you can share with us anything about how the system to intelligence is going to be implemented. Is that going to be onboard on ships inside Optimus? Or if we should think about, like, your fleet of, like, a million Optimus being produced a year, actually driving very significant inference demand in data centers as well for system-to thinking.
好的，谢谢。如果可以的话，我想再问一个完全不同的问题，关于Optimus架构。您之前提到与XAI和Grock的合作。我想了解一下，能否分享一些关于智能实现的信息？这种智能系统会部署在Optimus内部吗？还是说，我们应该考虑每年生产的百万台Optimus，会在数据中心对于系统思维产生非常显著的推理需求？
What we think we can put a lot of intelligence locally in the robot. And it certainly needs to be enough intelligence that if the robot gets disconnected, like if it's a bad cellular signal or there isn't Wi-Fi, you know, Optimus can't just get stuck. It needs to have enough intelligence that it can still do useful things, you know, even if it loses the connection. Kind of like the car. Like, the car does not need any cellular or Wi-Fi connection to be able to drive safely. Now, I guess you can think of, like, Optimus needs kind of a manager to tell it what to do, broadly speaking. Like, if, you know, otherwise it's going to keep doing the same thing it did before. So, you know, I think you need kind of an orchestration AI, which, you know, Grock would be good for orchestration. And then for, you know, for Optimus' voice, you know, having a low latency, intelligent voice AI, Grock is actually very good for that.
我们认为可以在机器人本地安装大量智能。而且这种智能必须足够强大，即便机器人失去连接，比如说信号不好或没有Wi-Fi的时候，Optimus也不会因此停滞不前。它需要足够的智能以在失去连接时依然能够完成有用的工作。就像汽车一样，汽车不需要任何移动网络或Wi-Fi连接来确保安全驾驶。
现在，可以想象一下，Optimus需要一个“经理”来大致指挥它该做什么。否则，它可能会一直重复之前的工作。因此，我们认为需要一种协调型的人工智能，而Grock在协调方面表现优秀。对于Optimus的语音控制，Grock在提供低延迟且智能的语音AI方面也非常出色。
So, if you want to talk to Optimus and have kind of a, you know, a Grock-level conversation, you kind of need to connect to a Grock-level AI for that. But I would expect the amount of interaction, apart from, like, you know, the voice stuff and asking complicated questions of the robot that necessarily needs a large AI model to answer. The, you know, Grock would probably have about as much interaction with Optimus as a manager would have with the people on their team. So, meaning Optimus could probably work for several hours without any management oversight.
所以，如果你想和Optimus进行类似“Grock级”水平的对话，你可能需要连接到一个Grock级别的人工智能。然而，除了语音交流和向机器人提出需要大型AI模型解答的复杂问题以外，我认为其他互动并不多。Grock和Optimus之间的互动可能就像经理和他们团队成员之间的互动一样。因此，这意味着Optimus可能能在没有管理监督的情况下工作几个小时。
Great. The next question is going to come from Dan at Barclays. Dan, please feel free to unmute yourself. Great. Good evening. Thank you for taking questions. Elon, your chip suppliers generally generate pretty good economics on the chip they sell. Your approach has historically been on vertical integration. Part of that has been to get better economics. So, I know the longer-term goal of TerraFab is to get the supply you need. But how much of TerraFab is also motivated to get better economics on your midterm chip purchases? And how long is it going to take to ramp to get to yield that achieves that type of economic parity?
好的。下一个问题来自巴克莱的丹。丹，你可以取消静音发言了。好的，晚上好。感谢您接受我的提问。埃隆，你们的芯片供应商通常在出售芯片方面有不错的经济效益。你们历来的策略一直是垂直整合，其中一部分目标是获得更好的经济效益。我知道TerraFab的长远目标是获得所需的供应。但在中期芯片采购方面，TerraFab在多大程度上也是为了获得更好的经济效益呢？达到这样的经济效益需要多长时间来提高产量呢？
No, I mean, TerraFab is not some sort of mechanism to generate leverage over our chip suppliers. It's just literally we don't see a path to having enough efficient quantity of AI chips down the road as we scale production to high levels. Just the rate at which the industry is growing in logic, but even more so in memory, we just anticipate hitting the wall if we don't make chips ourselves. So, that's the reason for the TerraFab. I think that we do have some ideas for how to make maybe radically better AI chips. And these are kind of research ideas there, you know, which means like long shot, but if long shot pays off, it's maybe a giant improvement. And it's just easier to do that if we have our own research fab and are developing our own production technologies. So, and if you look sort of long term at, you know, say having AI satellites, making chips for those, there's just, there's not just no way in hell the existing industry can keep up with that. It's impossible.
不，我的意思是，TerraFab并不是为了增加我们对芯片供应商的话语权。实际上是因为我们找不到足够有效的途径来在未来大规模生产时获得足够的AI芯片。目前行业的发展速度非常快，尤其是在内存方面，如果我们不自行制造芯片，将会遇到很大的瓶颈。这就是我们创建TerraFab的原因。我认为我们确实有一些想法，可以制造出可能大幅改进的AI芯片。这些想法更像是研究性质的，因此风险较大，但如果成功，可能带来巨大进步。而拥有自己的研究工厂和生产技术会让这一切变得更容易。从长远来看，比如说要制造AI卫星的芯片，现有的行业根本无法跟上，这简直是不可能的。
All right. And our next question is going to come from Mark at Goldman Sachs. Mark, please feel free to unmute yourself. Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my question. I recognize the importance of FSD and that FSD can help to drive vehicle sales. And nice to see some of the improvements in the FSD technology more recently with version 14. However, I'm also hoping to understand if the company's view on new vehicle models has evolved. And I ask, given that, Elon, you posted on X recently that Tesla could develop a family vehicle. There's also been some past discussion about a compact vehicle. Well, I mean, cyber cab is the compact vehicle. It's actually, I mean, it's very roomy, but it's a, it's a two person vehicle. And we do think probably most of our production long term will be cyber cab because 90% of miles driven are with two or one or two people. So it would mean that, you know, you'd want a vast majority of your production to be cyber cab.
好的。接下来的问题来自高盛的Mark。Mark，请解除静音。是的，下午好。非常感谢您回答我的问题。我认识到完全自动驾驶（FSD）的重要性，并且FSD技术的发展可以促进汽车的销售。很高兴看到最近FSD技术在第14版本中的一些改进。然而，我也希望了解公司对新车型的看法是否有所变化。我问这个问题是因为，Elon，您最近在X上提到特斯拉可能会开发一款家庭用车。此外，以前也曾讨论过一款紧凑型汽车。嗯，我的意思是，Cyber Cab就是这款紧凑型车。实际上，它空间很大，但它是一款双座车。我们确实认为，从长远来看，我们大部分的生产可能会是Cyber Cab，因为90%的驾驶里程是由一到两个人完成的。因此，这意味着，大多数的生产应该集中在Cyber Cab上。
Um, then, um, but over time, it's going to make sense for our whole lineup to be autonomous vehicles of different sizes. And I, I did talk a bit about this, um, when we did the kind of AI day in LA at Warner Brothers and, you know, showed like, this is our current lineup. And this is what, you know, some idea of what our future lineup will be, which is that it's going to be almost entirely autonomous. In fact, long term, the only manually driven car will be the, the new Tesla roadster. Uh, speaking of which, we may be able to debut that in a month or so. Um, it requires a lot of testing, uh, and validation before we can, uh, actually have a demo and not. You know, have something go wrong with the demo.
嗯，然后，嗯，但随着时间的推移，我们整个产品线都将以不同尺寸的自动驾驶汽车为主，这是有意义的。我之前在洛杉矶华纳兄弟举办的人工智能日也谈到过这一点，我们展示了当前的产品线，并设想了未来的产品线几乎完全是自动驾驶汽车。事实上，从长远来看，唯一的手动驾驶汽车将是新的特斯拉跑车。说到这个，我们可能会在一个月左右推出它。不过，在我们实际进行演示之前，需要进行大量的测试和验证，以确保演示时不会出问题。
Uh, but I think it will be one of the most exciting product unveils ever. Um, I'm not sure. I don't think it moves the needle massively from a revenue standpoint. So, but it is very cool. Um, I think, I think it might be one of the most spectacular demos ever. All right, Mark, did you have a follow up question? Uh, yeah, thanks Travis. Um, my other question was on batteries and the company mentioned batteries as a constraint on its growth. Can you speak more to how Tesla expects to resolve this and to what extent that might come from ramping up your own LFP and 4680 battery cell manufacturing? Or is this something that you would expect to resolve primarily with increased sourcing from suppliers? Thank you.
嗯，我认为这将是有史以来最令人兴奋的产品发布之一。不过，从收入的角度来看，我不确定它会带来很大的影响。但它确实非常酷。我觉得这可能是最壮观的演示之一。好的，马克，你还有其他问题吗？
嗯，谢谢，特拉维斯。我的另一个问题是关于电池的，公司提到电池是其增长的制约因素。您能否详细说明特斯拉计划如何解决这个问题，以及在多大程度上会通过提高自有LFP和4680电池的生产来解决？或者您认为主要会通过增加供应商的采购来解决这个问题？谢谢。
Yeah. So at the moment, I think the limiter is not the cells itself. It's the battery pack capacity. And, you know, we're, like I said in my opening remarks, we're actively working on resolving this. There's more capacity being added as we speak. And I'll let Lars add a few more things to it. Hey, yeah. Thanks. Um, as you guys may have seen in Berlin, we started launching a Model Y battery pack with our in-house 4680 cells, um, a few months ago. And that is ramping up nicely, adding to Berlin's output and helping with the demand surge that we've seen in Europe as well.
好的。目前，我认为限制因素不是电池单元本身，而是电池组的容量。如我在开场白中所说，我们正在积极努力解决这个问题。目前我们正在增加容量。接下来让拉尔斯补充一下。嗯，谢谢大家。正如你们在柏林所见，我们几个月前开始推出搭载自家生产的4680电池单元的Model Y电池组，并且这一进展非常顺利，这不仅增加了柏林的产能，还帮助应对我们在欧洲看到的需求激增。
We're adding additional capacity in our Reno facility, sort of retooling it as it's been building packs now for, you know, almost 10 years. And, um, in order to put in some more efficient lines and get, you know, additional output out there. And then, you know, we continue to have, uh, growth in China as well, ramping in-house, um, LFP module production and battery packs associated with that. So all of those things are happening now and in the next months. And that's, you know, really plans we laid out a few months back to increase that, that output with the growing demand. All right. Thank you guys.
我们正在增加雷诺设施的产能，可以说是在对其进行一些改造，因为它差不多已经生产电池组将近10年了。我们计划引入更高效的生产线，以提高产量。此外，我们在中国的业务也在增长，正在加快内部LFP模块和相关电池组的生产。这些措施正在进行中，并将在未来几个月内推进。这实际上是我们几个月前制定的计划，以应对日益增长的需求。好的，谢谢大家。
Um, and our, uh, next analyst is going to be Colin from Wells Fargo. Uh, Colin, please feel free to unmute yourself. Oh, great. Uh, thanks for taking my questions. Um, you, you moved the safety driver in Austin and you're now expanding. And you're now expanding into Allison Houston. What are the key safety metrics that you're tracking that gives you confidence that robo taxi is safe in us to expand? Is it sort of miles per intervention, miles per accident, per fatality? And, and where do you stand on that now?
嗯，我们接下来的分析师是来自富国银行的Colin。Colin，请随时解除静音发言。哦，好的，非常感谢你们回答我的问题。你们在奥斯汀移除了安全驾驶员，现在正在扩展到休斯顿。在此过程中，你们跟踪的关键安全指标是什么，这让你们对无人驾驶出租车的安全扩展有信心？这些指标是否包括每次干预的行驶里程、每次事故的行驶里程或每次致命事故的行驶里程？目前你们在这些指标上处于什么水平？
Yeah, we track basically all the metrics that you mentioned. Uh, we have a pretty large QA fleet, uh, spread across all of the United States. Uh, and then we, uh, you know, look at, uh, any intervention that could happen and then sort of simulate, uh, uh, uh, both in practice and also in our simulators that are very, very good nowadays using neural networks, uh, as what would have happened. And then based on all these analysis, we in the end, make the call, uh, to expand. Uh, and so far, uh, all of the expansions have gone according to our expectations.
是的，我们基本上跟踪您提到的所有指标。我们在全美设有一个相当庞大的质量保证团队。此外，我们会关注可能发生的任何干预措施，然后在实践中以及利用现今非常先进的神经网络模拟器进行模拟，分析可能发生的情况。基于所有这些分析，最终我们会决定是否进行扩展。到目前为止，所有扩展都符合我们的预期。
Yeah, a lot of, a lot of the limiting, a lot of what limits wider deployment of robo taxi are actually not safety issues, but, uh, convenience issues or, or the car basically gets paranoid and gets stuck. Um, like sometimes it gets, cause it's, it's programmed for maximum safety. So the problem is that then it's sometimes just, uh, get scared to do things. So like sometimes get scared to cross railroads, for example, um, or it'll get stuck at, uh, you know, a, a light where there's, uh, the light, the light never changes from red.
是的，限制无人驾驶出租车广泛部署的，很多时候其实不是安全问题，而是便利性问题，或者是汽车本身太过谨慎，导致停滞不前。因为车子是为了最大限度地保证安全而编程的，因此有时候会因为害怕而不敢行动。比如它有时候会害怕过铁轨，或者在红绿灯前一直不动，因为灯一直不变绿。
Or I mean, there was one kind of amusing situation where a whole bunch of, uh, uh, robo taxis got stuck in the left turn lane in Austin because I kid you not, a Waymo had crashed into a bus. Um, and so they could not turn left because the way mode crashed into the bus. And so you have this like long line of like, I don't know, a dozen or more Tesla robo taxis that were waiting for the bus to move, but the bus was never going to move because the way more is crashing into the bus.
我指的是，有一个挺有趣的情况发生在奥斯汀：一大群无人驾驶出租车被困在左转车道上。你可能不会相信，一个Waymo自动驾驶车撞上了一辆公交车，导致这些出租车无法左转。于是，就出现了这样一幅场景：十几辆特斯拉无人驾驶出租车排成一长列等着公交车移动，但因为Waymo撞上了公交车，公交车根本动不了。
So, so that obviously drives people crazy. If there's a whole bunch of robo taxis blocking the whole road. Um, so it's, it's a ton of, ton of things like that. That's the single biggest thing is, is just the car being scared to move or getting kind of stuck in situations like that. Uh, we've also had literal infinite loops where, you know, the car might want to make a turn into a road, but there's construction. And then it goes around the block, tries to turn into the road with construction, goes around the block, tries to turn the road.
这样显然会让人抓狂。如果一大堆机器出租车堵住整个道路，那可是个大麻烦。类似这样的事情层出不穷。最大的问题就是车子会因为犹豫不决，或者卡在这样的状况中动不了。我们甚至遇到过真正的无限循环的情况：车子可能想转进一条路，但那条路在施工中，然后它就绕过这个街区，再次尝试转进那条施工的路，结果又绕回去，再次尝试。
Um, and, and so you have to stop the infinite looping, literal infinite looping. Um, so that those actually, that those are by far the, um, issues that we have to resolve as opposed to direct safety issues. Got it. Great. And then last, yeah, just last year I asked about, you know, FSD and camera and the issues with sun glare. And you noted that there was a breakthrough with direct photon counting that addressed this issue.
这个嘛，所以，你必须要停止无限循环，真正的无限循环。这个实际上是我们必须解决的问题，比直接的安全问题重要得多。明白了，很好。然后，最后，嗯，就是去年我问过关于全自动驾驶（FSD）和摄像头的问题，以及阳光眩光的问题。你提到通过直接光子计数取得的突破解决了这个问题。
But a month ago, there was a NHTSA filing saying that they haven't received an update when the solution was deployed and the number of vehicles. Uh, is this, did, did it require a retrofit of the camera? Is this fully deployed? I guess I'm just curious since the filing mentioned it. Yeah. First, I want to say we did, you know, change the cameras some months ago and those are out. And the NHTSA flying is referring to like older vehicles.
大约一个月前，美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）的一份文件提到，他们尚未收到关于解决方案何时部署以及涉及车辆数量的更新。这是否需要对摄像头进行改装？这个解决方案是否已完全实施？我只是因为文件中提到这些内容而感到好奇。首先，我想说的是，我们确实在几个月前更换了摄像头，这些新摄像头已经投入使用。NHTSA的文件是指旧款车辆。
We always work directly with NHTSA, um, on all of the issues that they raise with us. And there, there's, they're asking for quite a bit of information and, you know, we're complying with that in as timely manner as possible. And so, um, we expect to resolve that and any of the other investigations in, in short order. Yeah. And we have also implemented stricter measures for the, um, the visibility of the camera.
我们一直直接与国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）合作，处理他们提出的所有问题。他们要求我们提供相当多的信息，为此我们正在尽可能及时地进行配合。因此，我们预计能够很快解决这些和其他调查的问题。而且，我们还对摄像头的可视性实施了更严格的措施。
So, in recent software builds, if the camera is not able to see things clearly because of, you know, residue buildup or what have you, um, then the FSD won't be available for those cars. It just needs to, you have to clean the inside of the windscreen. Great, um, that unfortunately is all the time we have, uh, today. Uh, we appreciate everyone's questions and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much and goodbye. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
所以，在最近的软件版本中，如果由于污垢堆积或其他原因导致摄像头无法清晰看到事物，那么这些车辆将无法使用全自动驾驶功能。你需要清洁挡风玻璃的内侧。很遗憾，今天我们的时间就到这里了。感谢大家的提问，我们期待下个季度与大家再次交流。非常感谢，再见。谢谢，谢谢，谢谢，谢谢。