Markets Weekly March 28, 2026

Hello my friends, so today is March 28th and this is Markets Weekly. So for weeks we've been talking about how the S&P 500 has been losing momentum. Last week it looks like it's outright breaking down, because identally next week is the one year anniversary of Liberation Day, and as we all recall that was a very, very exciting time in markets. So today there's really only one thing to talk about, one thing that matters that is the war in the Middle East.

你好，我的朋友们，今天是3月28日，这是《市场每周谈》。几周以来，我们一直在讨论标准普尔500指数的动能减弱。上周，它看起来彻底崩溃了，因为巧合的是，下周将是解放日一周年，我们都记得，那是市场中非常非常激动人心的时刻。所以今天只有一件事值得关注，那就是中东的战争。

So let's first talk about how the war in the Middle East is bleeding into the real economy in financial markets. Let's talk about how it seems to me that Iran will win this war. And lastly let's talk about how it will further change the global geopolitical landscape and US politics. All right, starting with the economic and financial implications. So first off, how you traded the past few weeks completely dependent upon your judgment on the geopolitical landscape. We are in war, tremendous amounts of propaganda that are outright lies being put forth from the mainstream media.

好的，首先让我们来谈谈中东战争如何影响金融市场的实际经济。看起来伊朗将在这场战争中获胜。最后，我们再来讨论这将如何进一步改变全球地缘政治格局和美国政治。好的，先从经济和金融的影响开始。首先，过去几周的交易完全依赖于你对地缘政治形势的判断。我们身处战争中，主流媒体传播了大量的宣传，这些信息中有很多是谎言。

And looking at the comments I can see that geopolitics is a topic that many people are passionate about and many people think they have expertise in. So I will present my perspective and if you look at my past few videos I'm happy with my judgment. So we are, the global economy has been nuked and we are moving on into the phase where due to the radiation sickness we are not feeling well. The straight up armouz remains close. There's only a few ships passing through each day. Those ships seem to largely be Iranian vessels sending crude oil to China. Iran is actually selling more oil today than it did before, the war.

从评论中我可以看出，地缘政治是一个让许多人充满热情的话题，很多人认为自己对这个领域很有见解。因此，我会分享我的看法，如果你查看我过去几个视频，我对自己的判断还是满意的。目前，全球经济就像被“核爆”了一样，我们正进入一个因为“辐射病”而感觉不佳的阶段。霍尔木兹海峡依旧关闭，每天只有少量船只通过。这些船只主要是伊朗的船只，把原油运往中国。实际上，伊朗如今出口的石油比战争前还多。

So that means that in Iran net the global economy has a tremendous tremendous negative supply shop in oil. That supply shop has in part been mitigated by factors such as Saudi Arabia sending oil through a pipe to the Red Sea and also the release of emergency oil stockpiles throughout the world. But at the end of the day the world still is receiving on a flow basis a few or a thousand before and that's showing up in pricing. So we don't consume crude oil, we consume refined products. Looking at this graph of refined products you can see jet fuel, diesel and so forth going to the moon.

这句话的意思是，在伊朗，全球经济面临着一个非常严重的石油供应冲击。部分供应短缺被一些因素缓解了，比如沙特阿拉伯通过管道将石油运输到红海，还有全球范围内释放紧急石油储备。然而，最终全球石油供应量还是减少了，这体现在价格上。我们并不直接消费原油，而是使用经过精炼的产品。从这张精炼产品的图表中可以看到，航空燃油、柴油等产品价格飞涨。

And that's already having some very concrete impacts. You have airlines cancelling thousands of flights because they can't operate at jet fuel prices is high. And that's going to bleed into say tourism industry right people are traveling less think about the hotels and other industries that are dependent upon tourism. You have in Thailand the government ordering some employees to work from home to reduce demand for gasoline and you've been have anago reports of farmers in Australia not being able to get diesel.

这已经产生了一些非常具体的影响。因为航空煤油价格过高，航空公司已经取消了数千个航班。这将影响到比如旅游业，因为人们旅行减少了，想想那些依赖旅游的酒店和其他行业。泰国政府要求部分员工在家办公，以减少对汽油的需求。而且，还有报道称澳大利亚的农民无法获得柴油。

That's going to have downstream implications where industries that are dependent upon these guys then also suffer shortages, raise prices and so forth. So this really is a slow motion train wreck. It's happening it's concrete, it's just slow moving. And as the straight up her moves remains closed it's going to get worse because over time we will eventually run out of our emergency stockpiles and then the shortage will be compounded. There is I think the globally county is already in recession. Now in some places if this continues will happen outright depression.

这将产生连锁反应，那些依赖这些行业的产业也将面临短缺、提价等等。所以，这真的是一次缓慢发生的灾难。虽然进展缓慢，但问题确实在发生。而随着这条主要运输路线的关闭，情况会变得更糟，因为随着时间推移，我们的应急库存最终会耗尽，短缺问题将进一步加剧。我认为全球范围内经济已经进入衰退。如果这种情况持续下去，一些地方可能会直接陷入经济萧条。

Now moving to the financial markets you can see that the US markets are also beginning to sniff out every session as well. Now over the past few weeks as oil prices rose you can see that the market was pricing and getting more fed while fewer fed cuts some possibility of a fed hike. That's a market focus to seeing slow slowly on inflation higher oil prices higher inflationary impulse. But on Friday even as oil prices continue to march higher the market actually priced in a more dovesh path of policy.

现在来看金融市场，你可以看到美国市场也开始在每个交易日上表现出动向。过去几周，由于油价上涨，可以看到市场对加息的预期增加，而对降息的预期减少，甚至有了加息的可能性。这表明市场关注到通胀的缓慢上升以及油价上涨带来的更大通胀压力。然而，尽管星期五油价仍在持续走高，市场实际上反映出了一条更为温和的政策路径。

That is because as equity prices decline as this negative supply shock reverberates the market is becoming concerned that we could be in a recession and if that's the case unemployment rate goes higher that constrains the feds ability to focus on inflation. And of course if you have a recession there's going to be less demand and so that kind of moderates inflation as well. So heading into this incident we already saw that we were losing a lot of jobs. A guy was sweeping through and disrupting many industries.

这是因为随着股价因这次负面供应冲击而下跌，市场开始担心我们可能陷入经济衰退。如果真是这样，失业率会上升，从而限制美联储专注于通货膨胀的能力。当然，如果发生经济衰退，需求会减少，这也会在一定程度上缓解通胀。因此，在这一事件发生前，我们已经看到许多工作岗位正在流失。一个人正在横扫并扰乱许多行业。

Private credit for example continues to be a source of some alarm there a lot of redemptions. Again I continue to believe it's contained but that hurts sentiment as well. And as white collar workers increasingly fear their displacement they're going to reduce their spending. We're already at a time where the economy was weakening and this really does push us I think into a recession. But that's kind of one way on how we can get out of this.

例如，私人信贷仍然是一个令人担忧的来源，因为有大量赎回。我依然认为这个问题是可控的，但这也影响了市场情绪。而且，随着白领工人越来越担心自己的职位被取代，他们将减少支出。当下经济已经在走弱，而这种情况确实可能将我们推向经济衰退。不过，这也可能成为我们走出困境的一种方式。

So that leads me to my next topic where it seems to me that the most likely path is an Iranian victory. So right now last week we had some encouraging science where you had the US propose a 50 point piece proposal to Iran again this is all fog of war stuff confidential so we don't really know what all the points were and how it was treated and so forth. But it seems to me that first off it's not really all about the US as we've been talking about for weeks there are three people at the table there's the US there's Israel and Iran each party has their own interests each party has your own perspectives.

这让我引出下一个话题，我认为最有可能的结果是伊朗的胜利。就在上周，美国提出了一份包含50点的提案给伊朗，这一切都在战争迷雾中进行，因此具体内容和处理方式我们并不清楚。不过，在我看来，这并不仅仅关乎美国，正如我们过去几周讨论的那样，谈判桌上有三方：美国、以色列和伊朗。每一方都有自己的利益和观点。

The US of course is the least committed to this conflict because it's far away and I think many people are still unsure what the US is doing there. So they are the one that could more easily be moved. For Israel of course it's much clearer the view Iran as a threat want regime change and is something that they have been well prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been lobbying for for 40 years. So this is their dream come true and they don't want to stand Iran though I think we are hearing some new things that are interesting and their proposals last week they want the world to acknowledge that Iran has control over the street of our moves.

美国当然在这场冲突中的投入最少，因为它距离遥远，很多人仍然不清楚美国在那里的具体行动。因此，美国是最容易被影响的一方。对于以色列来说，情况则要明确得多，他们将伊朗视为威胁，希望实现政权更迭。这是以色列一直以来的目标，总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡为此已经游说了40年。对于他们来说，这就像梦想成真，因此他们不希望在伊朗问题上有所退让。不过，最近我们听到一些新的有趣消息，他们上周的提议希望世界承认伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的控制。

So what Iran is beginning to find out is that by controlling the street of our moves they control 20% of the world's oil supply they become a regional hegemon and so that is power that they have and now everyone has to pay tribute or tariffs to them to be able to pass through. Reports suggest that Thailand is negotiating with Iran for passage of their ships and maybe Iran can just make it a business to charge a few million dollars for every passage and people will gladly do that and Iran will be able to make a lot of money so they don't want to give that up and this is something that seemed to be able to defend.

伊朗开始意识到，通过控制关键的海峡，他们不仅掌握了全球20%的石油供应，而且也成了地区霸主。因此，他们拥有强大的影响力，现在各国都必须向他们缴纳贡品或关税以通过这一地区。据报道，泰国正在与伊朗商谈船只通行事宜，而伊朗可以通过向每艘过境船只收取几百万美元的费用来进行商业化运作，各国可能愿意支付这些费用。这样，伊朗能够赚取大量资金，所以他们不愿意放弃这种优势，而且这个优势似乎很容易被他们所维护。

So in the background of course of these peace talks we also have reports that the US is sending troops to the Middle East this weekend the first installment of Marines will arrive. Reports suggest the Pentagon is also thinking about another 10,000. Now this is not a ground invasion of horses it's like an expeditionary force a proper ground invasion you need much more troops for the Iraq invasion they needed 250,000. If you look at Vietnam though again you can see that every ground invasion begins this way you have a few thousand for exhibition troops you gradually build up and you know one day you wake up and you have a few hundred thousand troops in.

在这些和谈的背景下，我们也收到消息称，美国计划本周末向中东派遣军队，第一批海军陆战队员将抵达。有报道称，五角大楼也在考虑再部署1万名士兵。这并不是一场全面的地面入侵，而更像是远征部队。要进行真正的地面入侵，需要更多的军队，比如入侵伊拉克时需要25万军队。不过，如果你看越南战争就会发现，每次地面入侵都是这样开始的，首先是派遣几千名远征士兵，然后逐步增加，直到有一天，你会发现已经有几十万士兵在那儿了。

Now I don't think this will happen but it's not impossible and every proper ground invasion kind of begins this way just by a few thousand people maybe you become committed you got to reinforce the existing troops you take losses you don't want to step down you don't want to admit defeat and you just keep adding troops. So that is a possibility but I don't think it will happen. What seems to me that is the most likely path is that Iran just keeps straight up our moves closed for the just a few more days maybe a few more weeks and we watched the global economy implode we watched the stock market implode and that would drive the Trump administration to desperately seek an off ramp.

现在我认为这不太可能发生，但也不是不可能。每次真正的地面入侵往往都是这样开始的，可能只有几千人，然后你就开始全力以赴，需要增援现有的部队，承受损失，你不想退缩，也不想承认失败，所以不断增加兵力。这是一种可能性，但我认为不会发生。不过，我觉得最有可能的情况是，伊朗只是继续封锁海峡几天，也许几周，然后我们会看到全球经济崩溃，股市暴跌，这将迫使特朗普政府拼命寻找一个解决办法。

So you never want to bend on a market crash because that's just not a probable event it doesn't happen very often. But looking at the context the conditions they are all there you look at how it's trading you look at the impact on the real economy you know we could really have a repeat of liberation day that will really really panic the Trump administration especially since this war is already very very unpopular it's causing price out the pump to rise and now it's of course it's causing many upper middle class people to panic as to for one case decline.

所以你不应该因为市场崩溃而屈服，因为那并不是一个常见或高概率的事件。然而，考虑到当前的背景和条件，所有的因素都存在。你可以观察市场的交易方式以及对真实经济的影响，我们可能真的会重演“解放日”的情景，这会让特朗普政府非常非常慌乱，尤其是因为这场战争本来就已经非常不受欢迎。它导致汽油价格上涨，现在也让许多中上阶层的人因401(k)退休账户的贬值而感到恐慌。

And should that be the case I think the US would be more willing to use political pressure to force Israel to also back down the US does have leverage the US provides a lot of you know interceptors and fixes aircraft and so forth so they could use that leverage to get Israel to back down and reach some kind of a cord with Iran. Another constraint of course is that the US and Israel are by many reports running low on munitions so they're running low on bombs running low on interceptors and then naturally forces some kind of limit as to how far this conflict can go.

如果情况确实如此，我认为美国可能会更加愿意使用政治压力去迫使以色列也退让。毕竟美国在某种程度上是有影响力的，美国为以色列提供了许多拦截器和维修飞机等支持，所以他们可以利用这种影响力来促使以色列后退一步，与伊朗达成某种协议。另一个限制因素当然是，很多报道都显示，美国和以色列的弹药储备正在减少，他们的炸弹和拦截器都在耗尽，这自然对冲突的持续程度构成了一定限制。

And if that's the case if they are going to run off munitions if the US has a lower pain threshold because of its weakness the stock market then that logically seems to me to suggest that Iran is going to get more of its demands maybe it does retain control of this trade of from moves maybe it retains some kind of some kind of guarantee that US and Israel won't attack it again. Remember the US and Israel were having peace negotiations or nuclear discussions with Iran but use that as a pretext to prepare for their military strike and then attacked this happened this time and it also happened last June as well so trust is very low between the parties. So yeah we're at a phase where I think the stock market acceleration in decline could actually force the Iranian victory which leads us to our last point what does this mean.

如果事情真是如此，假设美国因为股市的脆弱而承受较低的痛苦阈值，他们的弹药耗尽，逻辑上这似乎意味着伊朗可能会得到更多的要求。也许伊朗可以继续掌控某些交易，或者得到美国和以色列不会再次攻击它的某种保证。要记住，美国和以色列曾与伊朗进行和平谈判或核讨论，但利用这些作为准备军事打击的借口，然后进行攻击。这种情况发生在这次，也曾发生在去年六月。因此，双方之间的信任非常低。所以，我认为我们处于这样一个阶段：股市加速下跌可能会促成伊朗的胜利。那么，这对我们有什么意义呢？

I think it has huge geopolitical implications but it also has domestic political implications as well. So by pushing the US into an uphop of the war and creating a lower stock market and US recession the market is pricing in greater probability of a blue sweep in the midterm elections. A blue sweep is when the Democratic Party wins the House and the Senate. Now it's already very likely that the Democrats will win the House the Senate less likely but probability is rising and if that were to happen you can easily see basically a legislative change where the President is really not able to implement any of this stuff when he continues to be maybe pulled through endless investigations maybe members of his cabinet or family get investigated maybe some of them go to jail and you could see a 2028 where you actually end up with a Democratic President and Democratic control of all three houses of all of the two houses so the executive and Congress.

我认为这件事情具有巨大的地缘政治影响，同时也有国内政治的影响。通过将美国推入战争的泥潭，引发股市下跌和经济衰退，市场正在预期在中期选举中民主党大获全胜的可能性增加。民主党大获全胜指的是他们赢得了众议院和参议院。目前，民主党赢得众议院已经非常有可能，而赢得参议院的可能性相对较小，但正在上升。如果这种情况发生，总统会面临立法方面的重大变动，可能无法实施任何计划，并且还可能面临无休止的调查，甚至他的内阁成员或家人也可能被调查，甚至入狱。到2028年时，你可能会看到一个民主党总统以及民主党掌控行政分支和国会的局面。

So that is going to be a very big change and it would be regime change in the United States because you're moving from a party that is all about low taxes and trying to pump up the financial markets through a party that cares less about this stuff. So you could have a world where maybe the US becomes more like the country, the socialist countries in Uraland or Canada where you have higher taxes and then more public services. That's going to benefit some people and it's going to hurt some people, write some people we better off some people we less off that's the definition of redistribution of policies but that is I think very clearly stock market negative right?

这将是一个非常大的变化，美国可能会经历一次政权更替，因为你将从一个重视低税率并试图通过金融市场刺激经济的政党转向一个对这些不太关心的政党。所以，美国可能会变得更像欧洲或加拿大的社会主义国家，采用更高的税收来提供更多的公共服务。这种变化将利好某些人，但对另一些人可能不利，让一些人变得更好，而另一些人变得更糟。这实际上就是政策再分配的定义。不过，我认为这对股市显然是不利的，对吧？

Smart market likes lower taxes so I think it does not like higher taxes. So as we think about the longer term trajectory of what this can mean you know that it's I think it's negative for growth and it's negative for financial assets and sure maybe some people will get more benefits maybe that's better for them but again we focus on the markets. Now a corollary to this is what this is mean from a geopolitical standpoint. So I think what we've learned from this war is that what not just this war but also the Russia-Ukraine war is that the weapons of modern warfare are missiles and drones and that allows middle powers to have wage these asymmetric wars that allow them to withstand greater powers.

聪明的市场喜欢较低的税收，所以我认为它不喜欢较高的税收。因此，当我们考虑从长远来看这可能意味着什么时，我认为这对增长不利，对金融资产也不利。也许有些人会从中获得更多的好处，这对他们来说可能更好，但我们关注的是市场。与此相关的是，从地缘政治的角度来看，这意味着什么。我认为我们从这场战争中学到的是，不仅仅是这场战争，还有俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争，让我们了解到现代战争的武器是导弹和无人机，这使得中等实力的国家能够打这些不对称的战争，来对抗更强大的国家。

So many people when Russia invaded Ukraine many people thought it would be over very quickly because everyone of course living through the cold war think of Russia as a great power but years on Russia and Ukraine are still locked in combat and that is largely because Ukraine has mastered drone deployment and is able to stand up to Russia because of these technological changes. I think we're kind of seeing the same thing here in the Middle East whereas the US is perceived to be a global superpower has a blue water navy can project force throughout the world but we're coming to an understanding that you know it's carrier groups all these air these air strikes things these are not as useful in the modern world.

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，许多人认为这场冲突会很快结束，因为很多生活在冷战时期的人都认为俄罗斯是一个强大的国家。然而，几年过去了，俄罗斯和乌克兰仍然处于激烈的战斗中，这主要是因为乌克兰掌握了无人机技术，并通过这些技术革新能够抵抗俄罗斯。我认为，我们在中东地区也看到了类似的情况，美国虽被视为全球超级大国，拥有可以在全球范围内投射力量的海军，但我们逐渐认识到，在现代世界中，航母战斗群和空袭这些手段可能并没有想象中那么有效。

For example the US is the US carrier the most advanced in the world is now actually withdrawn out of theater and being repaired at a nearby new by base and reports suggest that it's going to be out of commission for 14 months over a year. Now the story is that there has been a laundry fire there and that is putting it out of commission but other support reports indicate that it's been hit by Iranian missiles of drones and it has to repair. So that reinforces the point that many people have been making that carriers are basically obsolete in the world of missiles and drones they're basically sitting ducks right you can easily take them out.

例如，美国是拥有世界上最先进航母的国家，但现在这艘航母实际上已经撤离战区，并在附近的新基地进行维修。有报道称，需要维修14个月以上。官方的说法是，航母上的洗衣房发生了火灾，因此暂时无法使用。但也有其他报道称，这艘航母是被伊朗的导弹或无人机击中，导致需要修复。这加强了许多人所说的观点：在导弹和无人机的时代，航母基本上已经过时了，非常容易成为靶子。

Drones and missiles are much cheaper and the more high tech ones the missiles they are hypersonic they travel very quickly and with good targeting are very precise so that's leveling the playing field for a lot of these middle powers. Now drones and missiles are things that Russia Iran China are very good at and strangely the US is not good at. The second thing to note is that if you don't have an industrial capacity you are not a military superpower.

无人机和导弹的成本相对较低，而其中更高科技的导弹具有高超音速，能够非常快速地飞行，而且如果定位精准，其打击也非常精确。这使得很多中等国家在军事领域的竞争中处于更有利的位置。现在，俄罗斯、伊朗和中国在无人机和导弹技术方面表现出色，而奇怪的是，美国在这一领域并不擅长。需要注意的第二点是，如果一个国家没有工业能力，它就不能算作军事超级大国。

So the US reports suggest it's running low on patriot missiles and all this other many munitions. So you really can't project force if you can't produce guns if it takes 14 months to fix your crew carrier. In contrast you know Iran Russia they're moving on to an industrial economy is producing a lot of drones and if you look at China they are the workshopped of the world they can produce hundreds of not thousands of drones and missiles a day should they choose.

美国的报告显示，他们的爱国者导弹和其他弹药库存正在减少。这意味着如果需要14个月才能修好运兵车，就无法有效展现军事力量。相比之下，伊朗和俄罗斯正在向工业化经济转型，生产大量无人机。而中国作为世界工厂，如果愿意，每天可以生产数百甚至数千的无人机和导弹。

So when you think about who is the military superpower today you got to bear that in mind who has the industrial capacity. So if you are a US ally in the Gulf or in Korea you've noticed that the US is not able to protect you and honestly it seems like it only cares about Israel.

当你考虑当今哪个国家是军事超级大国时，你必须考虑到其工业能力。因此，如果你是美国在海湾地区或韩国的盟友，你可能已经注意到美国无法保护你，而且坦率地说，它似乎只关心以色列。

So you have to rethink how you manage your alliances with the world how you manage your relationship with say other polls in this multiple world like China. So this suggests to me that we're going to move to world where people are going to move not well not become enemies with the US but they are going to have their heads their bets a little bit more and become more friendly with players like China because the US is just not able to exert as much power as it used to.

你需要重新思考如何管理与世界的联盟关系，特别是与其他重要国家（如中国）的关系。这让我觉得，未来的世界格局将会改变，各国与美国虽然不会成为敌人，但可能会更多地考虑与中国这样的国家建立更友好的关系，因为美国如今的影响力已经不像过去那么强大了。

Now when you come when you're thinking about an island like Taiwan then giving what we've learned over the past few weeks there is absolutely no way that the US could wage war and protect Taiwan it's just it's so ridiculous right so China is right off the coast Taiwan is right off the coast of China China can produce all these ballistic and hypersonic missiles any US Navy even even thousands of miles from China will be sunk instantly so there's just no way that Taiwan has any chance in a war against China and there's no way the US could protect Taiwan.

现在，当你考虑到像台湾这样的岛屿，并结合我们过去几周所学到的东西，就会发现美国根本不可能在战争中同时保护台湾。这种想法太荒谬了。首先，中国大陆就在台湾的近海边缘，而台湾紧邻中国。中国可以制造各种弹道导弹和高超音速导弹，任何即使在距离中国数千英里的美国海军都会被瞬间击沉。所以，台湾在与中国的战争中没有任何机会，美国也无力保护台湾。

So you know this is something that I think will impact the geopolitical landscape there and if you are Korea in Japan you have to realize that as well so we're moving into a new world it's very exciting so we'll see how this unfolds and again guys I think that's a dangerous time in markets I hope you guys stay safe.

我认为这将影响那里的地缘政治格局，如果你是韩国或日本，你也必须意识到这一点。我们正在进入一个新的世界，这非常令人兴奋，让我们看看事情将如何发展。同时，我认为当前的市场环境存在风险，希望大家保持安全。