Tesla Quietly Prepares for Robotaxi Expansion / Why Tesla Changed Robotaxi Pricing ⚡️
发布时间 2026-03-10 00:06:29 来源
Oh, it's her left. Oh god. I know it's in Chang-Oh. This is actually really scary. Oh my gosh. It's like it's like it's in Chang-Slo. No, it's gonna go after this car. Yes! Yes! Yes! Oh, come on! Come on! Oh, my God! Oh, my God! Oh! The person is like crying for us! Oh, my God! The person is like crying for us! Oh, my God! Oh, my God! Oh, my God! Oh, my God! Yes, I did! Oh, my God! Oh, my God! Welcome to Electrified. It's your host, Dylan Numis. Quick shout out to my newest Patreon, MaxKay. Thank you for choosing to support the channel. More like way!
哦，是她的左边。天啊，我知道是在昌哦。真的太吓人了。我的天啊，真的像是在昌斯洛。不，它要去追这辆车了。是的！太好了！来吧！来吧！哦，天啊！哦，天啊！哦！那个人好像在为我们哭泣！哦，天啊！那个人好像在为我们哭泣！哦，天啊！哦，天啊！哦，天啊！我成功了！哦，天啊！哦，天啊！欢迎来到Electrified节目。我是你的主持人，Dylan Numis。感谢我最新的Patreon支持者，MaxKay。谢谢你选择支持这个频道。太棒了！
No! And this video was just posted by a woman in Austin of a WAMO, thankfully, with no passengers in the vehicle, but dangerously close to some train tracks, and you'll see most of this WAMO vehicle is actually beyond the crossing gate or the crossing arm, leaving the front of the WAMO vehicle perhaps inches away from the train tracks. So again, as a reminder, just because I have not been covering every WAMO instance like this does not mean they have not been happening.
不！这段视频刚刚由一位在奥斯汀的女士发布，内容是一辆WAMO车。幸运的是，车里没有乘客，但车却危险地靠近铁轨。你会看到，这辆WAMO车的大部分其实都超过了铁路道口的闸门，车头可能离铁轨只有几英寸。再次提醒大家，我没有去报道每一个这样的WAMO事件，并不意味着这些事件没有发生。
And over the weekend, for the first time ever, we have alphabet tying a portion of Sundar Pichai's pay to WAMO. Alphabet's board approved a 130 million WAMO BPU grant or BET performance units. That VESS based on growth in WAMO's per unit valuation over three years and can pay out at up to 200% of the target, pushing its potential value to 260 million dollars.
在这个周末，Alphabet公司首次将桑达尔·皮查伊的部分薪酬与WAMO挂钩。Alphabet董事会批准了一项价值1.3亿美元的WAMO BPU（表现单位）奖励。这项奖励基于WAMO单位估值在三年内的增长情况，并且可以达到目标金额的200%，使其潜在价值达到2.6亿美元。
Now, despite all of these WAMO incidents we see online that don't get a lot of media coverage, WAMO is indeed scaling their antenna-so-cities now with plans to get to 20 here over the next few months in the back half of this year. And this is just my speculation, but I actually think this move from alphabet shows some confidence that WAMO can actually scale as this takes it from an other BET's category.
现在，尽管我们在网上看到的所有关于WAMO的事件并没有得到太多媒体的报道，WAMO确实正在扩大他们的天线规模，计划在今年下半年将覆盖的城市增加到20个。这只是我的猜测，但我实际上认为这个举动表明Alphabet对WAMO能够扩展有信心，因为这将其从“其他押注”类别中提升出来。
And to what is now a very key strategic priority and so much so that the CEOs pay is actually tied to that performance. And as we know, unfortunately for Tesla, they are not going to get this white, kitty glove treatment that WAMO is getting when it comes to media coverage. And so when reporting like this comes out about WAMO saying in San Francisco, clearing a stalled robotaxi can take up to an hour, and the process often requires transit dispatchers to contact WAMO's call center or wait for remote operators to intervene.
翻译如下：
现在，这已成为一个非常关键的战略优先事项，甚至CEO的薪酬都与此表现挂钩。而且我们知道，不幸的是，对于特斯拉来说，他们在媒体报导方面不会得到像WAMO那样的“白手套”待遇。因此，当有这样的报道出来，比如在旧金山，清理一辆抛锚的机器人出租车可能需要长达一个小时，而且通常需要交通调度员联系WAMO的呼叫中心或等待远程操作员介入。
In some cases, police officers or WAMO staff have to physically move the vehicle. And this reporting is from today. In one complaint logged by a transit operator, a robotaxi blocked traffic in both directions, the operator wrote WAMO contacted and was zero help, and another report described dispatchers trying to reach the company but repeatedly getting routed through a call center that could not resolve the problem.
在某些情况下，警察或WAMO工作人员必须亲自将车辆移走。这是今天的报道。在一名公共交通运营者记录的一起投诉中，一辆自动驾驶出租车阻碍了双向交通，运营者写道，WAMO的联系毫无帮助。另一份报告描述了调度员试图与你公司联系，但多次被转接到无法解决问题的呼叫中心。
But at least internally it is starting to seem like alphabet and WAMO are starting to develop some confidence when it comes to scale. And potentially sometime over the next year or so, they may be able to get close to driving profitability. Speaking of robotaxi pricing over the weekend, there was plenty of chatter about Tesla apparently raising the cost of the base fee for robotaxies from $1 up to $3. Here it was adjusted to be at $3.25 as the new base rate, but the $1 per mile stayed the same.
但至少在内部，Alphabet和Waymo在规模方面似乎开始建立一些信心。而且可能在未来一年左右的时间里，他们有望接近实现盈利。谈到周末关于自动驾驶出租车定价的话题，有很多讨论称特斯拉显然将自动驾驶出租车的基础费用从1美元提高到了3美元。这里调整为3.25美元作为新的基础费率，但每英里的费用仍保持在1美元不变。
And if this is accurate, that would be the first price increase in over six months. Before I even say anything I need to make this abundantly clear, Tesla's robotaxi pricing is algorithm based. Meaning when we have these conversations about a base fee and a cost per mile, there is something in the background that Tesla is using here. But ultimately the best we can do is reverse engineer those as estimates.
如果这是准确的，这将是六个多月来的首次涨价。在我说任何话之前，我需要非常明确地说明，特斯拉的自动驾驶出租车定价是基于算法的。这意味着当我们讨论基本费用和每英里费用时，特斯拉在背后使用了某种机制。但最后我们所能做的最好就是对这些费用进行逆向推算，作为一个估计。
So I just want to make it clear, nowhere officially or publicly has Tesla come out and said, alright guys, here's our $3.25 base fee and it is exactly $1 per mile on top of that. All we actually have is community sourced unofficial data that we are then taking to reverse engineer what we think Tesla's algorithm actually is. And before you go extrapolating this new data over years and years and tens of thousands of vehicles, I'll just tell you right now the algorithm is going to continuously change.
我只是想澄清一下，特斯拉并没有在任何官方或公开场合宣布：“好了，大家，我们的基础费用是3.25美元，每英里的额外费用正好是1美元。” 我们所拥有的只是来自社区的非官方数据，我们利用这些数据来反向推测特斯拉的算法可能是什么。而且，在你准备应用这些新数据到未来多年和成千上万辆汽车之前，我要提醒你，这个算法会不断变化。
So for me personally, if I was out there modeling something, I would only take these rates and extrapolate it out to maybe in order of magnitude, possibly two from where we are today. Let's call it 40 vehicles active in the Austin fleet. So maybe I would run this pricing out to 400 or 4000 units of Tesla scaling. Reason being, once Tesla reaches those new levels of scale, a lot of the COGS dynamics and the pricing dynamics are going to change.
对我个人来说，如果我要在外面做模型，我只会将这些数据推算到大约一个数量级，也可能是两个数量级，从我们今天的状况开始。比方说，奥斯丁车队目前有40辆车在运营。那么，也许我会将这个价格模型扩展到400或4000辆特斯拉。原因是，一旦特斯拉达到这些新的规模水平，很多生产成本和定价的动态就会发生变化。
The supply and demand will be different and Tesla will continue to adjust. And as we've been saying for weeks, the demand is too high for Robotaxi in Austin. Sometimes people can't get around at all. The wait times are longer than the competition. So rather than reading too far into this one, it might just be as simple as Tesla trying to adjust that supply and demand balance. If Tesla raises the pricing a bit, especially for shorter rides that are going to have that $3.25 built in no matter how short the ride is, you would expect that to free up some vehicle availability.
供应和需求会有所不同，特斯拉将继续进行调整。正如我们几周以来所说，奥斯汀的无人出租车需求非常高。有时，人们根本无法出行。等待时间比竞争对手要长。所以，与其过度解读这个现象，不如理解为特斯拉正在尝试平衡供需。如果特斯拉略微提高价格，尤其是针对那些短途行程（不管多短都会有$3.25的基础费用），那么你可以预期这会释放出一些车辆的可用性。
Another potential factor at play here is Tesla is using this as transition pricing. What I mean by that is we know the cyber cab is coming, whether next month or in the next few months. Meaning Tesla is likely establishing a pricing baseline that the cyber cab will be launched into. As we've seen with Tesla over the years, that first year of a new production line, the costs are high, the economies of scale are low. So there is a world where as Tesla ramps up the cyber cab and incurs a lot of that cost for the new production line, they'll want to offset that with a bit higher revenue.
这里可能还有一个因素在起作用：特斯拉可能正在利用这种定价作为过渡定价。我的意思是，我们知道新的“Cyber Cab”即将面世，可能是下个月，也可能是未来几个月。特斯拉可能正在为“Cyber Cab”建立一个定价基准。正如我们多年来在特斯拉看到的那样，新生产线的第一年成本很高，而规模经济效益却很低。因此，当特斯拉加大“Cyber Cab”的生产力度并承担新生产线的大量成本时，他们可能希望通过略高的收入来抵消这些成本。
But again, I don't want to over complicate this. Tesla has not yet been able to increase the supply, so given where demand is at, this might be as simple as Tesla pulling a lever to bring down the demand. But most importantly, short term, just have a look at this infographic comparing Tesla to both UberX and Waymo. I have the latter to combined because in Austin, Waymo rides are booked through the Uber app only, and they are priced identically to the Uber tier that you pick. So at least for now, and in Austin, there's no separate Waymo pricing.
但我不想把这个问题弄得过于复杂。特斯拉尚未能够增加供应，因此考虑到目前的需求，这可能只是特斯拉采取措施来降低需求的问题。但最重要的是，短期内，请查看这个信息图表，它比较了特斯拉与UberX和Waymo。后者我将其合并，因为在奥斯汀，Waymo的乘车服务只能通过Uber应用预订，而且价格与您选择的Uber等级完全相同。所以至少现在，在奥斯汀，Waymo没有单独的定价。
So for a two mile ride that takes around 5 minutes, a robot taxi ride would be around $5.25, whereas UberX and Waymo have a minimum fare of $5.95, then let's just assume an 18% tip takes the total for the latter to $7.2. Meaning even on a short ride, Tesla's cost would still be 25% cheaper than UberX. So if you want to consider Waymo pricing without the tip, just focus on the middle column, and then the third column would be UberX with that 18% tip. And the Tesla savings is going to be compared to the UberX with a tip.
对于一段两英里的旅程，大约需要5分钟，机器人出租车的费用大约是$5.25，而UberX和Waymo的最低收费为$5.95。如果再加上假设的18%小费，总费用为$7.2。这意味着即使是在短途乘车中，特斯拉的费用也比UberX低25%。如果你想考虑不含小费的Waymo价格，只需关注中间的那一栏，而第三栏则是包含18%小费的UberX费用。特斯拉的节省将与包含小费的UberX的费用进行比较。
But again, let me be clear, you'll see UberX and Waymo have this $1 base, and then $1.06 per mile, plus a $0.20 per minute fee. But again, as I said earlier, these companies use dynamic pricing to have their own algorithm, so all this is a reverse engineering of that data. And specifically, that's coming from TaxiFairFinder, which is just a third party app very similar to the robot taxi tracker. And one other important thing to point out, these prices for UberX and Waymo are base fairs, this would not include things like surge pricing.
再强调一下，你会发现UberX和Waymo的基础收费是1美元，然后每英里收费1.06美元，再加上每分钟0.20美元的费用。不过，正如我之前所说的，这些公司使用动态定价算法，所以我们这是在逆向分析这些数据。具体来说，这些数据来自TaxiFairFinder，这只是一个第三方应用程序，与无人驾驶出租车追踪器非常相似。还有一点需要注意的是，这些UberX和Waymo的价格只是基础费用，并不包括像高峰时段加价这样的费用。
So despite all of these factors, and with Tesla's increased pricing model as best as we can tell, Tesla's pricing in Austin is still most likely the cheapest option. Now this does not mean that you will never see screenshots of actual pricing in Austin showing Tesla being more expensive than Uber. Because again, all of the pricing is algorithmic and continually adjust dynamically to many different input factors. And in this screenshot, a Tesla robot taxi was $28.48, whereas for the same trip, a comfort Uber ride was $25.99.
所以，尽管有这些因素存在，并且根据我们所知，特斯拉提高了定价模式，但在奥斯汀，特斯拉的定价仍然很可能是最便宜的选择。不过，这并不意味着你不会看到实际价格的截图显示特斯拉比优步贵。因为所有定价都是基于算法的，会根据多种输入因素动态调整。在这个截图中，特斯拉机器人出租车的价格是28.48美元，而同样的行程，优步舒适型的价格是25.99美元。
And I would hope this goes without saying, but for a program still this early, arguably still in a beta phase, Tesla will continue to test the market and the elasticity of demand. I would argue at least this entire year, that's how Tesla is going to be viewing this as gathering data, learning new markets, uncovering unexpected costs, learning what steady state demand actually is city by city, and figuring out what the market clearing rates are to actually balance Tesla's supply with the demand.
我希望这不言而喻，但对于一个仍处于早期阶段、或者说仍处于测试阶段的项目来说，特斯拉将继续测试市场和需求的弹性。我认为，至少在这一整年里，特斯拉将通过这种方式来收集数据，了解新的市场，发现意想不到的成本，弄清不同城市的稳定需求到底是多少，并找出市场清算率，以便平衡特斯拉的供应和需求。
Cashly Vance still did not upload that new video of the Tesla semi factory, but we did get some new photos of the semi doing some testing up in Alaska. And over the weekend, Tesla opened its first Tesla semi mega charger in LA. It still has a max speed of 750 kW, open to all Tesla semi customers, and this is the first mega charger that will be open to the public.
Cashly Vance 仍然没有上传那个关于特斯拉半挂卡车工厂的新视频，但我们确实得到了几张半挂卡车在阿拉斯加进行测试的新照片。在刚过去的这个周末，特斯拉在洛杉矶开设了第一个特斯拉半挂卡车专用的超级充电站，其最大充电速度仍为750千瓦，向所有特斯拉半挂卡车用户开放，这是第一个向公众开放的超级充电站。
Eventually, with Tesla's redesigned semi connector, that's what will enable that 1200 kW or 1.2 megawatt charging. But until that time, oftentimes Tesla is still using that older MC1 cable, which is likely why the charging speeds are still capped at 750 kW. Dan previously said the factory's epic manufacturing teams have high rate of install and commissioning, noticeable changes every day. So based on comments like this, it means good progress is being made, but it also likely means that we won't really see production until the second half of this year.
最终，随着特斯拉重新设计的半导体连接器的推出，将能够实现1200千瓦或1.2兆瓦的充电速度。但在此之前，特斯拉仍然经常使用旧的MC1电缆，这可能是充电速度仍限制在750千瓦的原因。Dan之前提到，工厂的制造团队安装和调试速度很快，而且每天都可以看到明显的变化。这些评论表明，虽然进展良好，但我们可能要等到今年下半年才能真正看到生产。
And I'm just going out on a limb here and saying that we won't see any type of volume production until 2027. On the supercharger front, Marco told us that Tesla has a massive site coming in Yermal, California. It'll be six phases where Tesla will add over 400 V4 stalls in a commercial development known as Eddie World 2. The first phase, which should begin construction sometime this year, will have 72 V4 stalls. If you didn't know, Eddie World 1, if you will, is a very popular travel stop and gas station complex also in Yermal, California. Some people even call it the Disneyland of gas stations. It has clean bathrooms, multiple different restaurants, homemade ice cream, coffee, a bunch of snacks and other amenities. In yes, Tesla already has a supercharger site there as well.
我大胆推测一下，认为我们直到2027年才会看到任何类型的大规模生产。在超级充电站方面，Marco 告诉我们特斯拉将在加州的耶马尔建一个大型站点。这个项目将分为六个阶段，在名为Eddie World 2的商业开发区中，特斯拉将增加超过400个V4充电桩。第一阶段应该会在今年某个时候开始建设，将包含72个V4充电桩。顺便一提，Eddie World 1是一个非常受欢迎的旅行站和加油站综合体，也位于加州耶马尔。一些人甚至称它为加油站的迪士尼乐园。那里有干净的洗手间、多家不同的餐厅、自制冰淇淋、咖啡、大量零食和其他设施。此外，特斯拉已经在那里建了一个超级充电站。
And the reporting is that this Eddie World 2 is going to have things like Cracker Barrel, McDonald's, convenience stores, more restaurants, drive-thru, some outdoor dining, pool through bays for cyber trucks with trailers and so on. Now if you haven't been following along, Tesla has quietly been scaling up the size of these flagship supercharger locations. At one time, Bar Sto was the biggest site with 120 stalls. Then late last year, we heard about Project Oasis that had 164 stalls and was completely off-grid with 11 megawatts of solar, 39 megawatts of battery storage across 10 megapacks.
据报道，这个Eddie World 2将会有Cracker Barrel、麦当劳、便利店、更多餐厅、免下车服务、一些户外就餐区，还有供带拖车的网络卡车使用的穿行车道等设施。如果你没有一直在关注，特斯拉一直在默默扩大这些旗舰超级充电站的规模。曾经，Bar Sto是最大的站点，拥有120个充电桩。然后在去年年底，我们听说了一个名为Project Oasis的项目，它有164个充电桩，完全脱离电网运行，配备了11兆瓦的太阳能电池板和10个大型电池组，总储电量达到39兆瓦。
But a few weeks later, we learned about the FireBaw supercharger location, which was bringing the total there to 288 V4 superchargers. Plus 16 megachargers for the semi. And what do you know? A few weeks later, we hear about another new record globally. This Eddie World 2 that will eventually have 400 plus stalls. Clearly these are not just incremental additions. This feels like a fundamental shift in Tesla's supercharger build out. And what did a show say on the recent call? One of the problems they ran into with Robotaxi scaling was they foresaw that they were going to hit infrastructure limitations.
几周后，我们得知了FireBaw超级充电站的位置，使得总数增加到288个V4超级充电桩，此外还有16个用于半挂卡车的超级充电桩。你知道吗？又过了几周，我们听说全球又创下了一个新纪录。Eddie World 2最 终将拥有超过400个充电桩。显然，这不仅仅是渐进式的增加，而是一种特斯拉超级充电站建设的根本性变革。最近的电话会议中，有人提到，他们在扩展Robotaxi时遇到的一个问题是预料到了基础设施的限制将会成为瓶颈。
So I can't help but think that these massive supercharging hubs and sites will function to ensure that future Robotaxi scaling is not limited due to a lack of infrastructure. Now of course, I would love to see some wireless charging being mentioned or installed at these new sites. But we can expect for the next few months, the Model Y will be the primary Robotaxi, which is going to plug in at a regular supercharger. And in the future, once CyberCAD becomes more ubiquitous, I'm guessing these sites will be retrofit with that wireless charging. And if not technically retrofit, then just added adjacent.
我忍不住想到，这些大型超级充电站和站点将确保未来机器人出租车的规模扩张不会因为基础设施不足而受到限制。当然，我希望在这些新站点看到无线充电被提及或安装。但在接下来的几个月里，我们可以预期Model Y将成为主要的机器人出租车，它会在常规的超级充电站插电。而将来，随着CyberCAD变得更加普及，我猜这些站点将安装无线充电设备。如果技术上无法改装，那就在旁边新增无线充电设施。
And look at this data from state of charge as of March 1st this year. DC fast charging ports in the United States, Tesla superchargers make up 52.1% of the market, sitting right around 36,500 ports. Which means yes, you can take the next 9 biggest companies and the other category and their market share combined is still less than Tesla's. And clearly Tesla is not a sitting target. And just a fun fact, Electrify America is the second biggest with 7.8% of the market. And in third we have EVGO at 7.2%.
看看今年3月1日的充电状态数据。在美国的直流快充端口中，特斯拉超级充电站占据了52.1%的市场份额，大约有36,500个端口。这意味着，如果把排名接下来的9家公司和其他类别加起来，其市场份额总和仍然不及特斯拉。显然，特斯拉不是一个静止的目标。有趣的是，Electrify America是第二大，占市场份额的7.8%。排名第三的是EVGO，占7.2%。
And yes, Eddie World 2 is expected to have solar canopies as well. And part of the reason I bring up the Robotaxi scaling is because this site is intended to serve primarily passenger vehicles. Meaning at least for now, there's no commercial truck or 16 wheeler charging that's planned. So for the very popular route from LA to Vegas and those surrounding areas, to me this is very clearly Tesla setting the stage for that Robotaxi expansion where there are thousands of Robotaxis operating in those areas.
是的，Eddie World 2 预计也将配备太阳能遮棚。我提到自动驾驶出租车规模化的原因之一是因为这个地点主要是为了服务乘用车。换句话说，目前这里并不计划为商用卡车或16轮大货车提供充电服务。对于从洛杉矶到拉斯维加斯及其周边地区这条非常受欢迎的路线，我认为这显然是特斯拉在为自动驾驶出租车的扩展铺路，最终将在这些地区运营成千上万的自动驾驶出租车。
There's been some very poor reporting around this. Tomorrow on Tuesday, Nitsa is going to hold a national autonomous vehicle safety forum that will include the CEOs of companies like Waymo, Zooks and Aurora. Nitsa is reviewing potential actions including future guidance on the safe domestic development, testing and deployment of self-driving vehicles. And the day long session will also review the use of remote assistance in Robotaxis. And how regulators should assess Robotaxi performance versus human driven vehicles.
关于这个问题的报道非常差劲。明天，也就是星期二，Nitsa将举办一个全国自动驾驶汽车安全论坛，Waymo、Zooks和Aurora等公司的首席执行官都会出席。Nitsa正在审查可能的行动，包括未来关于安全研发、测试和部署自动驾驶汽车的指导方针。这个为期一天的会议还将讨论远程协助在机器人出租车中的应用，以及监管机构应如何评估机器人出租车与人类驾驶车辆的表现。
Nitsa Administrator said last week the agency wants to support innovation in self-driving vehicles because of the potential benefits to reducing crashes and extending mobility to some older Americans and people with disabilities. We're taking a measured approach, removing unnecessary unintended barriers to this tech while maintaining strict safety oversight. And as we've been covering, Congress is right now considering legislation that aims to make it easier to deploy autonomous vehicles without human controls.
Nitsa管理者上周表示，该机构希望支持自动驾驶汽车的创新，因为这种技术有可能减少事故，并为一些老年人和残疾人士提供出行便利。我们正在采取审慎的方法，在确保严格安全监管的同时，去除不必要的障碍。目前，国会正在审议一项立法，旨在简化部署无人工控制的自动驾驶汽车的流程。
And the word is that Waymo, Zooks and Aurora will be having these high level panel discussions with a Nitsa administrator. But the confusion lies in this event having two separate things going on. Tesla is going to participate in a separate AV showcase on Automation Plaza, which is basically just an outdoor demo area. So Tesla will have some hardware and tech on display, but it's not going to be involved in those structured on the record panel sessions. We don't know for sure if Tesla was not invited to the panel or chose not to be there.
据说Waymo、Zooks和Aurora将与Nitsa管理人员进行高层小组讨论。但令人困惑的是，这个活动中有两个独立的部分。特斯拉将参加在自动化广场举行的一个单独的自动驾驶展示，这个展示基本上只是一个户外演示区。因此，特斯拉会展示一些硬件和技术，但不会参与那些正式的小组讨论。我们不确定特斯拉是没有被邀请参加这些小组讨论，还是自己选择不参加。
And on this point, there were a few posts saying that today, March 9th, Nitsa would be releasing a critical safety report when it comes to Tesla. But that's not true at all. What's actually happening today is that Tesla has a deadline to submit some detailed crash-related data. This is from one of those preliminary evaluations that was opened October of last year. And so far, Tesla already got two extensions on this information request. So the original deadline was January, but today, as far as we know, is the day for Tesla to hand over that information. So no, Nitsa's not putting out any special report that has huge implications. It's just Tesla giving Nitsa information.
关于这一点，有一些帖子称，今天，3月9日，Nitsa将发布一份对特斯拉来说至关重要的安全报告。但这完全不是真的。实际上，现在发生的事情是，特斯拉需要在截止日期前提交一些与撞车有关的详细数据。这是去年十月开始的一项初步评估的一部分。目前为止，特斯拉已经两次申请延长提交这项信息的期限。所以，原本的截止日期是今年一月，而今天，据我们所知，是特斯拉提交这些信息的最后期限。因此，Nitsa并不会发布任何具有重大意义的特别报告，而只是特斯拉向Nitsa提供信息而已。
Today, we got news Tesla and Samsung are making waves again. This, thanks to the rumor mail. So if these rumors are true, Tesla wants Samsung to produce many more AI6 wafers than initially anticipated. This could raise the value of a deal that was already crucial to Samsung's plans to develop chips in Texas. And this rumor might bolster the argument that investors are finally receiving the anchor demand for Samsung's long delayed chip project in Taylor, Texas. And all they're saying for now, if volume under this contract is finalized, the entire value of the deal could well surpass the initial $16.5 billion agreement.
今天，我们收到消息称特斯拉和三星再次引起关注。这次是因为坊间传闻。如果这些传言属实，特斯拉可能希望三星生产更多的AI6芯片，比最初预期的数量还要多。这将可能提升原本就对三星在德克萨斯州发展芯片计划至关重要的协议价值。而这个传闻可能支持这样一种说法：投资者终于迎来了对三星位于德克萨斯州泰勒市长期拖延的芯片项目的关键需求。目前他们所说的是，如果这份合同的生产量最终确定，那么整个协议的价值可能会超过最初的165亿美元。
So how much bigger could this deal be? We just don't know, but I think it's safe to say that we know Elon wants all the chips he can get. So if Tesla is starting to develop some confidence in what Samsung can do at this factory in Taylor Texas, then of course, Elon and Tesla will want as many as they can get their hands on. And remember, this is AI6, not even AI5. So this would likely be well into 2028. That's because we're not expecting AI5 to be out into the wild into production until closer to the end of next year.
那么，这笔交易还能有多大？我们还不知道确切的答案，但我想可以肯定地说，埃隆想要尽可能多的芯片。所以，如果特斯拉开始对三星在德克萨斯州泰勒市这家工厂的能力充满信心，那么显然，埃隆和特斯拉会希望得到尽可能多的芯片。记住，这指的是AI6芯片，而不是AI5。这意味着可能要等到2028年了。因为我们预计AI5投产要到明年底左右。
In a blog post, Tesla said it's now done more than 500,000 solar installations worldwide. Here's the thing. Back around 2019, that's when Elon said that the solar roof would do around 1000 installations per week, and long term, it would do 10 to 20,000 installations per week. And even if you take just 5,000 solar roofs per week at 50 working weeks in the year, that would be 250,000 solar roof installs alone per year. Then fast forward about three years after those announcements, and the solar roof was doing about 20 units per week. That according to Wood McKenzie.
在一篇博客文章中，特斯拉表示他们现在在全球范围内完成了超过50万次太阳能安装。事情是这样的，大约在2019年，埃隆·马斯克曾表示，太阳能屋顶每周的安装量将达到约1000个，长期来看将达到每周1万到2万个。即使按每周安装5000个计算，每年工作50周，这也意味着每年光是太阳能屋顶的安装就能达到25万个。然而，根据Wood McKenzie的数据，大约在那些声明发布后三年，太阳能屋顶的每周安装量仅为20个。
And now we actually have no idea what Tesla solar is doing with the solar roof because they don't report that line item anymore. So for me, until that line item comes back into Tesla's quarterly financials, then that tells me that business line is not ready to scale and is not ready to be a material contributor to Tesla's business. But importantly, for the future, Tesla is the only company in the world right now where you can buy a full ecosystem. You can get custom Tesla panels, Tesla's EV charger, Tesla's vehicle, and a Tesla power wall for battery backup. And as far as I can tell, no other company can say the same.
现在我们其实完全不知道特斯拉的太阳能屋顶项目进展如何，因为他们不再把这个项目单独列在财务报告中。因此，对于我来说，直到特斯拉在季度财务报告中重新列出这一项目，这就意味着这个业务线还没有准备好扩展，并且暂时不会对特斯拉的业务做出重要贡献。但重要的是，对于未来而言，特斯拉是目前世界上唯一一家可以提供完整生态系统的公司。你可以购买定制的特斯拉太阳能板、特斯拉的电动车充电器、特斯拉的汽车，以及用于电池备用的特斯拉储能墙。据我所知，没有其他公司能做到这一点。
Rohan Paul was saying how Google would spend $1.9 trillion on data centers and hardware over the next decade, to which Elon said rookie numbers, $10 trillion or you're not even trying. Elon reminded everybody Tesla patents are open source, we do patents to block the trolls, not because we need protection from competitors. Clay Travis said, self-driving Tesla has replaced the iPhone for me as the most transformative tech of the 21st century. I think the self-driving Tesla is the most impressive tech creation of the 21st century.
Rohan Paul 说谷歌未来十年将在数据中心和硬件上花费1.9万亿美元，Elon 则回答说这只是入门级数字，必须投资10万亿美元，否则根本没在认真投入。Elon 还提到特斯拉的专利是开源的，我们申请专利的目的是为了阻止恶意诉讼者，而不是为了抵御竞争对手。Clay Travis 表示，自动驾驶特斯拉取代了 iPhone，成为对他而言 21 世纪最具变革性的技术。我认为自动驾驶特斯拉是21世纪最令人印象深刻的技术发明。
A joke shared that and said it really is and the upcoming tech will make it even more so. So I would love to double click on this upcoming tech. But you know where my mind goes, it's right to 14.3, the last big piece of the puzzle. AOC again said Elon's not a scientist, he's not an engineer, he's a billionaire conman with a lot of money. To which Elon corrected her saying, trillionaire. And that is Elon being a trollianair.
有一个笑话是这样说的，确实是这样，并且即将到来的技术会让它更是如此。所以我想深入了解这即将到来的技术。不过你知道我的脑海里第一想到什么，那就是14.3，这是最后一块重要的拼图。AOC（亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯）又一次说艾隆（马斯克）不是科学家，也不是工程师，只是一个有钱的亿万富翁骗子。对此，艾隆纠正她说，是“万亿富翁”。这就是艾隆展现他调皮的一面。
Responding to Joe Tetmire, Elon said the first half of cortex in Austin will be active next month. Again, that is the brain of Optimus. Roon said, hedonic adaptation is hitting agents are old news now. We need more acceleration to which Elon said so much acceleration is coming. Tesla driver person shared a great clip of Tesla's FSD in some pretty tough conditions. So you can extrapolate for yourself if a driver was distracted for this 5-10 second period what could have happened. And these are the stats that we don't have that we should. All of the accidents that have already been avoided by Tesla's FSD that will never get reported.
对此，埃隆在回应乔·特米尔时表示，奥斯汀的第一部分核心在下个月将开始运作。这里指的是Optimus的大脑。Roon提到，现在随着习惯性适应，代理人成为了老新闻。我们需要加速，而埃隆回应说，很快会有大量的加速。特斯拉的一位驾驶员分享了一段特斯拉全自动驾驶系统在相当恶劣条件下表现出色的视频。你可以自己想象一下，如果司机在这5-10秒内分心，会发生什么。这是我们没有但应该有的数据——所有因为特斯拉全自动驾驶系统已经避免的事故，这些都不会被报道。
Today figure put out a new video of its figure 03 humanoid running on the helix 2 neural net. And figure is saying this demo was fully autonomous with the robot adapting to the environment in real time. And helix 02 is combining walking balance and this manipulation without resets or any tele operation. And figure continues to tout this helix 2 as a single neural net that can do all of these tasks like walking, grasping or planning with one single neural net. And they're saying that helix 2 can add new skills like cleaning up a living room on the same neural net that they demoed recently which was cleaning in the kitchen.
今天，Figure 发布了一段新视频，展示了其 03 型仿人机器人在 Helix 2 神经网络上的运行。Figure 表示，这次演示是完全自主的，机器人能够实时适应环境。Helix 2 将行走平衡和操控结合在一起，无需重置或远程操作。Figure 继续强调，Helix 2 是一个单一的神经网络，可以完成包括行走、抓取和规划在内的所有任务。他们还表示，Helix 2 可以在同一个神经网络上增加新技能，例如在厨房进行清洁之后可以学习整理客厅的技能。
So no new algorithms are needed and no hardware adjustments were needed. And if this video is not sped up which we have no indications it is, this appears to be moving quicker than the kitchen demo. And even Elon asked about this one he said was this autonomous or remotely operated. But the real question for in home use is how generalized are these skills. It's one thing to do this in a closed environment at the figure factory where this robot has been practicing and training for months. If he were to put this 03 robot in a random home where it's never been before and give it verbal instructions like it's doing now, how would it handle that scenario.
因此，不需要新的算法，也不需要调整硬件。如果这个视频没有被加速——我们没有迹象表明它被加速了——那么它看起来比厨房演示更快。甚至连埃隆（Elon）也曾问过这个问题，他问这是自主操作还是远程操作。不过，对于家庭使用来说，真正的问题是这些技能有多通用。在机器人已经在工厂内训练了几个月的封闭环境中执行这些任务是一回事。但如果将这个03号机器人放入一个它从未去过的随机家庭中，并像现在这样给它口头指令，它会如何应对这个情境呢？
At this point we still don't know but what we do know is that we should be getting a Tesla V3 Optimus demo sometime here hopefully in the next month or two. And I'm paying close attention to the hands and here with the remote you'll see that figure has to drop it in a sense to transfer the remote into the palm which on one hand pun intended is impressive in a sense but it's also likely not reliable enough for more complex manipulation and handling of very important and or delicate objects.
目前我们仍然不清楚，但我们确实知道，我们希望在接下来的一个月或两个月内能够看到特斯拉V3 Optimus的演示。我非常关注机器人的手部动作，你会看到它需要把遥控器“放下”才能转移到手掌上。从某种意义上来说，这一动作很令人印象深刻（双关语意图），但它可能还不够可靠，还无法完成更复杂的操作或处理非常重要或精细的物品。
And Sandeel Pellani said after 17 incredible years my last chapter at Tesla has come to a close. He said Tesla barely survived Christmas 2008. I started a few days later in our finance team under an ongoing Tesla death watch. I slept under my desk at least once and I was not the only one. There are many companies with hard working and talented employees but few have the level of commitment and collaboration of the Tesla team. In retrospect this should have been an obvious predictor of the successes that would follow.
桑迪尔·佩拉尼表示，在特斯拉度过了17年令人难以置信的岁月后，我在这里的最后一章已经结束。他提到特斯拉在2008年的圣诞节几乎撑不下去，我是在几天后加入财务团队，当时特斯拉正处于被外界看衰的状态。我至少有一次是在办公桌下过夜，我并不是唯一一个这样做的人。有许多公司拥有勤奋和有才华的员工，但很少有公司能像特斯拉团队那样体现出高度的承诺和协作。回想起来，这其实是后续成功的明显预测信号。
And to Elon a heartfelt thank you for your endless love of humanity and for demonstrating the power of thinking from first principles at all times about all things. When abundance is achieved and money ceases to have meaning these lessons will be the most valuable commodity in our economy. To the outside world who may not have experienced the above first hand remember that Tesla's mission is so ambitious and complex that any narrative about the company is naturally an oversimplification. Seek the truth about the company at all times and support it in any way that you can.
对于埃隆，我要衷心地感谢他对人类无限的爱，以及他在所有事情上始终坚持从第一性原理出发进行思考。当我们实现丰盈，金钱不再具有意义时，这些思考和经验将成为我们经济中最宝贵的财富。对于那些可能没有亲身经历过上述情况的外界人士，请记住，特斯拉的使命既雄心勃勃又复杂，关于公司的任何叙述自然都会过于简化。请时刻寻求关于公司的真相，并以任何可能的方式支持它。
There are few higher callings or better uses of your time. So beautifully said from Sandeel and Elon said thanks for an epic contribution over many years. This thought closed the day at $398.68 up 0.49% while the NDX was up 1.32%. The volume was 12% above the average. Hope you all have a wonderful day and a huge thank you to all of my Patreon supporters.
几乎没有比这更高尚的使命或更好的时间利用方式。Sandeel如此美妙地表达了这一点，而Elon对此多年来的卓越贡献表示感谢。这一想法的影响下，股价以398.68美元收盘，上涨了0.49%，而NDX指数则上涨了1.32%。成交量比平均水平高出12%。希望大家度过愉快的一天，非常感谢我所有的Patreon支持者。