Markets Weekly February 28, 2026

Hello my friends, today is February 28th and this is markets weekly. So this morning we woke up to war in the Middle East. Last evening Israel and the United States began their assault on Iran and as we record Iran is retaliating and the fighting is ongoing. So today first let's talk about what's happening in the Middle East and look at prior Gulf Wars to see what that could mean for markets. And secondly we have to talk a little bit about Citrini's viral peace on AI displacement and note some counterpoints as well.

你好，朋友们，今天是2月28日，这是我们本周的市场回顾。今早我们醒来时，发现中东地区爆发了战争。昨晚，以色列和美国开始对伊朗发动攻击，而现在伊朗正在进行报复，战斗还在继续。因此，今天我们先来谈谈中东地区正在发生的事情，并回顾之前的海湾战争，看看这对市场可能意味着什么。其次，我们需要讨论一下Citrini关于人工智能取代工作的热门文章，并指出一些反面意见。

All right starting with the Middle East. So this morning the President released an eight minute recorded video basically stating out his rationale for war with Iran and his goals. He noted that Iran is a bad regime in the past as a attack the United States, taken their attack to US embassy, taken hostages, also could have ballistic missiles that could reach the US, could potentially have nuclear weapons, a great threat to the US and so what they're doing is that they are attacking their capabilities and also pushing for regime change.

好的，我们从中东问题开始。今天早上，总统发布了一段八分钟的视频，基本上阐述了他对与伊朗开战的理由和目标。他指出，伊朗是一个糟糕的政权，过去曾攻击过美国，袭击过美国大使馆，扣押过人质。此外，伊朗可能拥有能够打到美国的弹道导弹，甚至可能拥有核武器，对美国构成巨大威胁。因此，他们的行动是在打击这种能力，同时推动政权更迭。

Finally to the great proud people of Iran I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand stay sheltered don't leave your home it's very dangerous outside bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished take over your government it will be yours to take this will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years you have asked for America's help but you never got it no president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action do not let it pass.

致伊朗伟大而自豪的人民：我今晚要告诉你们，自由的时刻即将到来。请待在室内，不要外出，外面非常危险，随时可能会有炸弹落下。当一切尘埃落定后，请接管你们的政府，这是属于你们的机会，可能是几代人中唯一的一次机会。多年来，你们一直寻求美国的帮助，但从未得到过，因为没有哪位总统愿意像今晚我这样行动。现在，你们有了一位愿意满足你们愿望的总统。让我们看看你们的回应。美国将以压倒性的力量和破坏性的实力支持你们。现在是时候掌控你们的命运，创造一个繁荣而辉煌的未来。这是行动的时刻，请不要错过。

So this is the absolute maximum position the US could have taken. Now this should not be a surprise to any of you we've seen the US build up military forces over the past few weeks the USS George Ford the largest aircraft carrier in the world went into position on Friday and if you understand the US's political structure you can see that this was definitely going to happen. Now the presence excuses are very obviously nonsense. Now Iran did attack the US embassy that happened in 1979. So quite a way back and then you know if you're reaching that far back to find excuses to attack someone you are just kind of making it up.

因此，这就是美国可能采取的最极端立场。现在，这一点不应该让你们感到惊讶。在过去的几周中，我们看到美国不断增派军事力量，全球最大航空母舰“乔治·福特号”于周五进入了关键位置。如果你了解美国的政治结构，你就能看到这是必然会发生的事情。现在，那些存在的借口显然是荒谬的。伊朗确实在1979年袭击了美国大使馆，那已经是很久以前的事了。所以，如果要追溯到那么久远的事件来为攻击找借口，那就显得有些牵强附会了。

Iran does have ballistic missiles, hypersonic ballistic missiles that are great threat to people in the region but not our threats to the US on Friday. The New York Times released a piece where people in the intelligence community basically said that that is just not what the person said was just not true. Now with respect to Iran's capacity to have a nuclear weapon the US intelligence also suggests that they don't and are not close to having a nuclear weapon but I'd also show you this. If not stopped Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time it could be a year it could be within a few months. They have the wherewithal the stored up preserve knowledge to make a bomb very quickly if they wanted to do it.

伊朗确实拥有弹道导弹和高超音速弹道导弹，这对该地区的人们构成了巨大威胁，但对美国来说，周五并没有构成威胁。《纽约时报》发表了一篇文章，其中情报界的人基本上说这并不是真实的。关于伊朗拥有核武器的能力，美国情报界也认为伊朗没有核武器，也没有接近拥有核武器。但我也想指出，如果不加以阻止，伊朗可能很快就能制造出核武器，可能是一年，也可能是几个月之内。如果伊朗愿意，他们具备快速制造炸弹的知识储备和资源。

Iran is so dangerous. Leaks away from having the fissile material for an entire arsenal of nuclear bombs. The very close there are six months away from being about 90 percent of having the rich uranium for an atom bomb. Iran is gearing up to produce 25 bombs, atomic bombs a year, 250 bombs in a decade. Ladies and gentlemen time is running out. Iran will be capable of producing a limb without importing anything nuclear bombs within three to five years.

伊朗非常危险。只需一些微小的失误，他们就能获得足够制造整个核弹库的裂变材料。他们离拥有制造原子弹所需的90%高浓缩铀大约只剩六个月的时间。伊朗正在准备每年生产25枚原子弹，十年内将达到250枚。女士们先生们，时间不多了。伊朗将在三到五年内具备在不需要进口任何材料的情况下自行生产核弹的能力。

So as you can see Prime Minister Benjamin Nathin Yehoo of Israel has been saying for 30 years that Iran is about to have a nuclear weapon imminently and so we need to attack them. So Iran is what is your perceived to be their greatest regional threat. And if you are in Israel with dreams of having more influence in the Middle East you really have to take Iran out. And so they've been trying to do this for some time. They cannot but maybe with the US's help they could.

以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡30年来一直表示伊朗即将拥有核武器，因此我们需要攻击他们。伊朗被认为是以色列在该地区最大的威胁。如果你在以色列，希望在中东拥有更大的影响力，就必须对付伊朗。因此，他们一直在尝试这么做。然而，他们可能单靠自己无法实现，但也许在美国的帮助下可以做到。

Now for those of you who know the Israel lobby has tremendous influence on foreign policy in the United States. I can tell you from a personal example that a few months ago I noted that Israel was killing tremendous amounts of Palestinians. Again some could call that to be a genocide, some could call that to be ethnic cleansing. Whatever and right after making that video it got all sorts of emails telling me that you know that's not true, that's not true. You know and then I would point out you know this is what the UN and the Red Cross are saying and they just turn around and it's like talking to a brick wall.

对于那些了解以色列游说团体对美国外交政策有巨大影响的人来说，我想分享一个个人经历。几个月前，我注意到以色列正在杀害大量巴勒斯坦人。有些人可能称之为种族灭绝，有些人可能称之为种族清洗。不管怎么称呼吧，在我发布相关视频后，收到了各种电子邮件告诉我那是不实信息。当我指出这是联合国和红十字会的说法时，他们就会直接无视，就像在对着一堵砖墙说话一样。

And then I would schedule that that time to speak to a conference in the coming weeks. And the conference organizer actually sent me emails and told me that a lot of people were trying to get me canceled because of my comments of what Israel was doing in Gaza. If you if you research on the internet you notice that this is actually very common. People just ordinary people who make comments about Israeli actions, Israeli policy. And in Gaza or elsewhere they get intimidated, some of them lose their jobs. So this is something that is actually quite widespread in the US. And we are not I'm not that important and these general white collar workers are not that important either. But on but the pressure intensifies when you are actually in politics and Congress is so forth.

然后我会安排在接下来的几周内找时间在一个会议上发言。会议的组织者实际上给我发了电子邮件，告诉我很多人因为我对以色列在加沙行为的评论，试图让我被取消发言。如果你在网上查找，你会发现这其实很常见。普通人如果对以色列的行动或政策发表意见，不管是在加沙还是其他地方，往往会被恐吓，有些人甚至因此失去工作。这种情况在美国其实相当普遍。我们并不重要，这些普通白领工人也并不重要。然而，如果是在政治领域，比如国会，这种压力会更加严重。

What would happen actually recently actually is that if you are not supportive of Israel you would not get donations from the Israeli Pali and they would actually fund your challengers to try to take you out. So there's tremendous influence of by Israel on the US foreign policy and in the institutions in the media and so forth. If you are not supportive of Israel they can do things to ruin your career. So there is very much below the surface a very strong pressure campaign to support Israeli causes. So I understand as President Trump is probably of course under the most intense pressure of his lifetime and it seemed like that was enough to push him to actually launch this strike on Iran. Now how this goes forward it's going to be very very difficult to say.

最近的情况实际是，如果你不支持以色列，你将不会得到以色列团体的捐款，他们还会资助你的对手来挑战你，从而试图让你出局。因此，以色列对美国外交政策、媒体和其他机构有着巨大的影响力。如果你不支持以色列，他们可以做一些事情来破坏你的职业生涯。因此，支持以色列事务的压力在表面之下非常强大。我理解，作为总统，特朗普可能正承受着他一生中最强的压力，这似乎足以推动他对伊朗发动攻击。至于接下来的发展会如何，很难预测。

So first let's think about what happened in prior US Middle Eastern wars. So in 1990s there was something called Operation Desert Storm. At that time Iraq attacked a small or neighbor Kuwait and the immediate market reaction for that was of course huge huge spike in oil. At that time Middle East was super crucial for oil and the US was a major oil importer. The markets of course sold off and did not like it. In the following months the US built an international coalition aiming to free Kuwait, repel Iraq and so forth. And during that build up it was very obvious of course when you move assets to the Middle East it's basically in your face similar to the build up we're seeing the past few weeks.

首先，让我们回顾一下美国在中东战争中的一些历史事件。在20世纪90年代，有一场行动被称为“沙漠风暴行动”。当时，伊拉克攻击了它的邻国科威特，市场对此的直接反应就是油价暴涨。在那时，中东对石油供应至关重要，而美国则是一个主要的石油进口国，因此市场普遍下跌，对此并不乐观。接下来的几个月里，美国建立了一个国际联盟，目的是解放科威特、击退伊拉克等。在这个过程中，当美国向中东调动军力时，局势变得非常明朗。这与我们在过去几周所看到的局势类似。

And so interestingly the markets did poorly into the build up but at the moment the strikes commenced oil totally totally imploded and markets rallied furiously. So it was a very classic sell the news event. So it could be that the markets saw that this would be very easy to win. It would be something that was very brief. It could be the markets had already digested the news and so they were selling off in the months before and rallied at the actual realization of the event that happened sometimes. Now another recent example is in 2003 we had the Iraq invasion. So that invasion was also something that was very much out in the open. The US built an international coalition of the willing launched tremendous assets into Iraq and then invaded over through Saddam Hussein.

有趣的是，在事件酝酿期间，市场表现不佳，但就在罢工开始的那一刻，油价却完全崩溃，而市场则猛烈反弹。这是一个典型的“卖消息”事件。这可能是因为市场认为胜利非常容易，事件会很短暂。也可能是市场提前消化了这一消息，因此在事件发生前的几个月里已经抛售，而在事件真正实现时又反弹了。另一个类似的例子是2003年的伊拉克入侵。当时这次入侵也是公开进行的，美国组建了一个国际联盟，向伊拉克投入了大量资源，随后入侵并推翻了萨达姆·侯赛因。

Now into the build up of that event the markets did poorly everyone was kind of worried. Oil was spiking and equity markets selling off. But the moment that attack began oil prices imploded and again markets rallied furiously. And that was a really very quick strike in a few weeks the US had taken down Baghdad. Of course the aftermath took many many years but the battle was over very quickly. So what you see is historically these geopolitical events are something that you would fade. Same thing actually in the Russia Ukraine war for example. Oil spiked tremendously at the beginning but again it went down a lot. Now I think that is basically true. You historically want to fade these geopolitical events. But I think what's a little bit uncertain is that just how this conflict would play out because the market did not price this in or at least I didn't seem like it was pricing it and hitting in the equity markets largely ignored it.

在这次事件的酝酿过程中，市场表现不佳，大家都很担心。油价飙升，股票市场大跌。然而，一旦攻击开始，油价便迅速下跌，市场也随之强劲反弹。这次行动很快，在几周内，美国就攻占了巴格达。当然，后续影响持续了许多年，但战斗本身却结束得非常快。从历史上看，这类地缘政治事件往往在最开始时会引发市场的恐慌，但随后市场会反弹。比如在俄乌冲突中也是如此，油价在初期大幅跃升，但后来又大幅回落。总的来看，面对这些地缘政治事件，你通常应该反向操作。然而，目前的不确定性在于，这场冲突究竟会如何发展，因为市场并没有对此作出反应，或者至少股市似乎并未受到太大影响。

Oil you do see a geopolitical premium it's not super high but it is there. So Iran is different from Iraq in that for a couple of reasons. One is that Iran is much much much bigger and also in geography and in population. Also they have more sophisticated weapons and word is that they have some assistance from Russia in China though it's hard to know how much. So at the moment what Iran seems to be doing is that they're striking oil facilities or military assets basically neighbors in the region. It's really hard to know fog of war and all that but one of the things that they have said they're doing and appear to be doing is to try to disrupt global oil.

石油市场确实存在地缘政治溢价，虽然不算非常高，但确实存在。伊朗与伊拉克有几个显著的不同之处。首先，伊朗的地理面积和人口规模都要大得多。此外，伊朗拥有更先进的武器，据说他们从俄罗斯和中国获得了一些援助，但具体程度不太清楚。目前看来，伊朗的行动包括袭击该地区邻国的石油设施或军事资产。由于战争迷雾的存在，具体情况难以判断，但他们声称并似乎正在试图扰乱全球石油市场。

So if that's the case and if Iran does have these military assets that maybe we don't fully know about the ballistic missiles the hypersonic ones are very effective and cannot easily be intercepted this could be a longer war than we anticipate and it may not be as easy as the market well as past military action has been again whereas US has a lot of assets here. Last time I think they had like five carriers this time there's only two so this is very much a high degree of uncertainty but what I think is pretty clear though is that this will not be something that is over by the end of the weekend. If you really want regime change this is going to take days and the US seems to be prepared for that the president noted very clearly that there will be casualties here so he's prepared to do that.

如果是这样的话，并且如果伊朗确实拥有我们可能尚未完全了解的这些军事资产，比如高效的弹道导弹和高超音速导弹，而且这些导弹难以拦截，那么这场战争可能会比我们预期得更长，并且可能不会像市场或过去的军事行动那么容易。而且，美国虽然在这里拥有大量资源，但这次似乎只有两个航母，而上次好像有五个，因此不确定性很高。不过，我认为很明显的是，这件事不会在周末结束。如果真的想要实现政权更迭，这将需要数天时间，美国似乎已为此做好准备。总统明确指出，这里会有伤亡，所以他已经准备好了应对这些情况。

One limiting factor is that the US actually doesn't have that many munitions and so it really can't be here for a very long period of time. In the matter of weeks they could eventually run out of munitions and as I understand those are not easily replenished so this is not something that's necessarily going to take months but it could take weeks. So this is something that first and foremost is going to be destabilizing it's going to be a big risk off day but I expect that eventually this is something that would be worth fading. Now the most direct impact that this would have on the US economy is through oil prices of course.

一个限制因素是，美国实际上没有那么多弹药，所以它无法在这里停留很长时间。在几周内，他们可能会用光弹药，据我所知，这些弹药不容易补充，这件事不一定会持续几个月，但可能会持续几周。因此，首先，这会导致不稳定，会带来很大的风险，但我预计最终这将是可以消退的。 现在，这对美国经济最直接的影响是通过油价体现出来的。

Now recall though that US is actually the largest oil producer in the world today so it's not going to have as much of an impact on US as it would in the past but that's not true for other countries I think about Japan I think about Europe for example that's going to have a much bigger impact on them than the US. More broadly looking out this is going to have important implications on the political prospects of the Republicans in the midterms they're going to lose the house there is some probability that they could lose the Senate as well so losing all of Congress would be a very big blow to the president's agenda.

请记住，美国实际上是当今世界上最大的石油生产国，所以这对美国的影响不会像过去那么大。但对于其他国家来说，情况并非如此。我想到日本，我想到欧洲，比如说，这将对他们的影响更大。从更广泛的角度来看，这将在政治上对共和党在中期选举中的前景产生重要影响。他们将失去众议院，也有可能失去参议院，因此失去整个国会将对总统的议程造成重大打击。

It opens up all sorts of investigations on the president and his cabinet members and you know maybe some of them would my possible be go to jail so if you're banking on having a America first agenda or maybe further deregulation and all that other stuff that becomes much more difficult show the president lose Congress. Looking beyond that it also impacts JD Vance's chances for presidency as well. A big consistency in the Republican Party is against war and they basically broke all their promises and so this is something that makes it much more likely that they would lose the 2028 election and of course if we have a Democratic Party there that suggests significant changes in things like tax policy and immigration policy as well.

这可能会引发对总统及其内阁成员的各种调查，你知道，也许其中一些人可能会被送进监狱。因此，如果你希望推行“美国优先”议程，或者进一步放松监管等，这些事情在总统失去国会支持的情况下会变得更加困难。此外，这也会影响到JD·万斯（JD Vance）竞选总统的机会。在共和党中，一个大的共识是反对战争，他们基本上违背了所有的承诺，这样一来，他们在2028年的选举中失败的可能性就更大。当然，如果民主党执政，将会在税收政策和移民政策等方面带来显著变化。

So this is something that we should definitely focus on it's very unfortunate to have this war and so but again it's early so let's see how this plays out. All right the second thing that I want to talk about is of course the huge viral piece St. Trini had on AI sketching out a potential kind of a doomsday scenario where AI massively massively displaced white collar workers leads to tremendous rise in the unemployment rate maybe deflation maybe it impacts a lot of mortgages loans and so forth and we'll also talk a little bit about some counter examples to this.

因此，这是我们绝对应该关注的问题。发生这样的战争是非常不幸的，但事情还在早期阶段，让我们看看事情如何发展。好吧，第二个我想讨论的当然是圣特里尼关于AI的一篇非常火爆的文章。这篇文章描绘了一种潜在的末日情景，即AI大规模地取代白领工作，导致失业率大幅上升，也许会引发通货紧缩，甚至影响到许多抵押贷款等等。我们还会稍微讨论一些反例。

So the scenario that St. Trini sketches is something that I think we've talked about before and we can kind of see happening today so this past week Jack Dorsey of block fired 4,000 out of his 10,000 employees saying that AI basically has made a lot of them unnecessary. Now the naysayers would say that Jack Dorsey over hired and he's trying to use AI as an excuse to shrink head count I think that definitely plays a role as well but the ultimate question is is agentic AI as it is today capable of replacing some white collar workers. Now after having using anthropic and listening to wider perspectives I think that is definitely true.

圣特里尼描绘的情景其实我们之前就讨论过，我想今天已经能看到一些迹象。例如，上周Block公司的 Jack Dorsey 解雇了他1万名员工中的4000名，称AI使得他们中的很多人变得不再必要。一些反对者认为Jack Dorsey聘用了过多人，现在用AI作为借口来减少员工数量，我认为这确实也是一个因素。但最终的问题是，目前的AI是否真的能代替一些白领职员。在使用了Anthropic技术并听取了更多不同的观点后，我觉得这个情况确实可能是真的。

Now St. Trini's example takes that and takes it a step further and knows that you know maybe there's much more white spread displacement and what happens to all these white collar workers well they all tumble into blue collar jobs like driving Uber until we get autonomous driving of course compressing wages for blue collar workers and in the sense we get into this huge kind of a deflationary spiral and in that scenario of course in my personal view bonds would be the ultimate AI trade.

现在，圣特里尼的例子更进了一步，它意识到可能会有更广泛的工作岗位流失。所有这些白领工人会怎样呢？他们都转而从事蓝领工作，比如开Uber，直到自动驾驶技术普及。当然，这会压低蓝领工人的工资。这样一来，我们可能会陷入一种巨大的通货紧缩漩涡。在这种情况下，我个人认为，债券将成为终极的人工智能投资选择。

Now a counterpoint to that of course would be looking past over the past 100 years 200 years we've always had technical logical advancement right and what we've seen after every advancement from electricity, steam engines, internet and so forth is that yes there is some friction in the employment market but at the end of the day there's no mass spread unemployment right people find new jobs you know people have become I know youtubers or something like that and at the end of the day we are all wealthier so that is of course a very obvious historical observation.

当然，一个相反的观点是，如果回顾过去100年甚至200年，我们总是会有技术进步。我们看到，在电力、蒸汽机、互联网等每一次技术进步之后，是的，就业市场确实会有一些摩擦，但最终并没有出现大规模失业。人们总能找到新的工作，比如成为YouTuber或类似的职业。总的来说，我们因此变得更加富有。这当然是一个非常明显的历史观察。

Now one thing I'll note though is that I think that's not fully true so one is that over the past few decades we actually do see mass unemployment but it's just not measured and let me explain so one of the things that we saw partially through globalization and partially through increased automation and manufacturing was that the US has much fewer manufacturing jobs. Now that doesn't necessarily show up in the higher unemployment rate because what happened actually is that hundreds, thousands, millions of people basically dropped out of the labor force so they're not counted in the unemployment rate.

我想指出的是，我认为这并不完全正确。过去几十年，我们确实看到大规模的失业现象，只是这些失业没有被统计出来。让我解释一下其中的原因。一方面，由于全球化的发展，另一方面，由于自动化生产的提高，美国的制造业工作岗位大大减少。然而，这并没有直接反映在更高的失业率上，因为实际上有成百上千万人基本上退出了劳动力市场，因此他们没有被计入失业率中。

So if you look at the labor force participation, prime age among cohorts you can see that people without a college degree, people who usually in the past would have worked in say blue-collar manufacturing jobs their labor force participation rate dropped precipitously as automation and globalization were going on and just has not recovered. So a portion of the population does get left behind permanently. They don't show up in the unemployment rate because they drop out of the labor force.

如果你查看劳动参与率，尤其是在黄金年龄段的人群中，可以发现那些没有大学学历的人，他们通常过去会从事蓝领制造业工作。在自动化和全球化的影响下，这些人的劳动参与率急剧下降，而且一直没有恢复。因此，社会中有一部分人被永久地落在了后面。他们没有显示在失业率中，因为他们已经退出了劳动力市场。

Now the second thing to note is that the technology definitely makes us all wealthier. Obviously let's say that I'm using AI now. I can create a funny photo or funny video effortlessly. That is goods and services produced right? You are basically in real terms having more wealth and you know I can do a lot in research and so forth. All that stuff is super important and if you were to count it into GDP, more goods and services produced that is definitely going to boost GDP but that is not the whole story.

现在要注意的第二点是，科技确实使我们变得更富有。显然，比如说我现在正在使用人工智能，我可以毫不费力地创造出有趣的照片或视频。这些都是产品和服务，对吧？从实际意义上说，这意味着更多的财富。此外，我在研究方面也能做很多事情。这些都非常重要，如果把它们计算到国内生产总值（GDP）中，更多的产品和服务会明显提升GDP。但这并不是事情的全部。

It doesn't necessarily boost income because of massive deflation in the products produced. Now, nominal income is important because a lot of people will have debt and so if you have massive technological innovation that allows you to produce goods and services much cheaper. Yes, overall we are all wealthier but that doesn't necessarily mean you make more money and if you have fixed nominal obligations like a mortgage or like corporate debt and so forth, that's actually big trouble for you.

由于生产的产品大幅度贬值，这并不一定会增加收入。现在，名义收入很重要，因为许多人有债务，如果有大规模的技术创新使你能够更便宜地生产商品和服务，尽管整体上我们可能都变得更富有，但这并不一定意味着你赚得更多。如果你有固定的名义债务，比如房贷或公司债务等，这实际上会给你带来很大麻烦。

So my best guess is actually at the end of the day, AI will make us all wealthier but no one will make any money. So we are seeing some of that creep into the debt market. So what's kind of alarming is that we solve some stress in the debt market so the senior loan market or if you look at private credit, a lot of the BDCs, these are basically publicly traded private credit funds. These guys are taking huge, huge haircuts on their equity prices because they are big lenders to solve for technology.

所以我最好的猜测是，最终，人工智能会让我们都变得更富有，但没有人会真正赚到钱。我们可以看到一些迹象表明这种情况正在渗入债务市场。令人担忧的是，我们在债务市场中注意到了一些压力，例如在高级贷款市场或私人信贷领域的压力。很多商业发展公司（BDC），这些基本上是公开交易的私人信贷基金，它们正在其股权价格上遭遇巨大的削减，因为它们是为解决技术问题的大型贷款方。

So as this disruption goes on, it's creeping into the debt markets, it's creeping into the equity markets. So it's hard to say how this would play out. I do think though that this can definitely AI can definitely replace, let's say, an associate or an analyst. So it's going to be structurally lower demand for labor. It's going to be a bumpy road and the way that I think policy would react to this is going to be more rate cuts.

随着这种颠覆继续发展，它逐渐渗入债务市场，也影响到股权市场。所以很难预测这种变化会如何演变。不过，我确实认为，人工智能绝对可以取代，比如说，一个助理或分析师。因此，对劳动力的需求将会明显减少。这将是一条崎岖不平的道路，我认为政策对此的反应可能会是更多的降息措施。

Just one other note, we did have inflation data last week that was higher than anticipated but really that's kind of looking at the rear view mirror. The disruption that we're having is just about to occur and it's not yet in full force. Greg Ipp from the Wall Street Journal has a really good article on this noting that actually software jobs are increasing.

我们上周确实有高于预期的通胀数据，但这有点像是在“看后视镜”。我们即将面临的动荡还没有完全显现。《华尔街日报》的Greg Ipp有一篇不错的文章指出，实际上软件行业的工作岗位在增加。

So maybe this AI stuff is just doom and that could be true but I think we are early in this process. Also if you look at other more broadly other technologies, sector jobs, they've actually been declining. All right, so that's all I prepared for today. Thanks so much for tuning in. Next week is going to be a very exciting and volatile week. All right, talk to you next week.

所以，也许这个人工智能的东西是个坏兆头，这可能是真的，但我认为我们还处在这一进程的早期阶段。而且，如果你看一下其他更广泛的技术领域，行业就业岗位实际上一直在减少。好了，这就是我今天准备的全部内容。非常感谢大家收听。下周将会是非常激动人心且充满变数的一周。好的，下周再聊。